China’s Growing Leverage Over the U.S., and How Oil Companies Hit the Jackpot

14 May 2026 · 10 min · 9 chapters

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In short

U.S.-China tensions amid Iran war; rare-earth dependence; record oil profits and debate over windfall taxes; Fed chair Kevin Warsh and concerns about independence; South Carolina Supreme Court overturns Alex Murdaugh murder convictions; death of NBA pioneer Jason Collins.

Guests

None listed in the transcript; main named contributors are reporters Tracy Mumford (host) and Patty Cohen (NYT global economics correspondent).

Key claims

China aids Iran with intelligence and spy satellite access; rare-earth dominance makes U.S. missiles more dependent on China; European oil companies profit via trading desks during volatility (e.g., TotalEnergies made about $1B in a day by buying March cargoes for May); potential windfall-tax debate; Warsh may face “regime change” pressure on interest rates; Murdaugh retrial ordered due to “shocking jury interference” by a clerk.

Notable examples

BP, Shell, TotalEnergies profits; Warsh confirmation vote; Murdoch clerk book promotion; Collins’ 2013 Sports Illustrated essay and NBA coming-out impact.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Trump's Visit to China

0:00 to 0:26

Discussion on President Trump's visit to China and U.S.-China relations.

“This podcast is supported by Planned Parenthood Federation of America.”

Trump's Visit to China

0:39 to 2:25

Discussion on President Trump's visit to China and U.S.-China relations.

“In Beijing this morning, President Trump was welcomed with a 21-gun salute.”

Dependency on China for Rare Earth Minerals

2:25 to 2:41

Exploring how U.S. military dependency on China is growing amidst global tensions.

“And notably, the war in Iran has actually tied the U.S.”

Oil Company Profits Amidst War

2:41 to 3:29

How BP and Shell are profiting from rising oil prices due to ongoing conflicts.

“trade official told The Times, quote, quote, every missile fired at Iran makes us that much more dependent in the near term on China.”

Windfall Tax Debate in Europe

3:29 to 4:52

Discussion on the potential windfall tax on oil companies in Europe.

“The Times global econ correspondent, Patty Cohen, has been digging into what is behind those sky-high profits.”

Kevin Warsh's Confirmation as Fed Chair

4:52 to 6:28

Concerns surrounding Kevin Warsh's independence as the new Federal Reserve chair.

“That money could then be used to help slash consumers' energy bills across the continent.”

Alex Murdoch's Murder Convictions Overturned

6:28 to 8:34

The overturning of Alex Murdoch's murder convictions and implications.

“And I think this is really going to come to a head as early as mid-June, which is the first meeting that Warsh is going to preside over as chair.”

Legacy of Jason Collins

8:34 to 10:24

Reflection on Jason Collins' life and impact on sports and LGBTQ rights.

“You hear the applause, a historic moment as Jason Collins becomes the first openly gay athlete to play in any of this country's four major professional sports.”

Legacy of Jason Collins

10:44 to 11:08

Reflection on Jason Collins' life and impact on sports and LGBTQ rights.

“Families around the world are facing widening gaps in healthcare and nutrition, but solutions are within reach.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Anton Troianovski:This podcast is supported by Planned Parenthood Federation of America. Here's a story that's not getting nearly enough attention. Defunding Planned Parenthood has already caused chaos and harm, and access to essential reproductive care is plummeting. Right now, the Trump administration's backers in Congress want to permanently defund Planned Parenthood, forcing even more health centers to close and millions at risk of losing access to care. It takes less than a minute to help. Go to plannedparenthood.org slash defend and make a gift of any size.

0:34Colby Smith:From The New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Thursday, May 14th. Here's what we're covering.

0:49Colby Smith:In Beijing this morning, President Trump was welcomed with a 21-gun salute. As Chinese President Xi Jinping greeted him for the start of their high-stakes summit.

0:59Sopan Deb:Such respect for China, the job you've done. You're a great leader. I say it to everybody, you're a great leader.

1:05Colby Smith:The meeting marks the first visit to China by a U.S. president in nearly a decade. And in their opening remarks, both leaders stressed the importance of U.S.-China cooperation.

1:16Sopan Deb:We've gotten along. When there were difficulties, we worked it out. I would call you and you would call me.

1:22Colby Smith:But hanging over that relationship and this week's talks are longstanding clashes over trade and Taiwan, as well as a new source of tension, the war in Iran. Iran is China's closest partner in the Middle East, and the country buys about 80 percent of Iran's oil exports. Since the beginning of the war, China has given Iran intelligence, plus access to a spy satellite that has tracked the positions of U.S. forces in the region. And just as Trump was flying to China, the Times learned from U.S. officials that Chinese companies have been discussing selling weapons to Iran. No Chinese weapons seem to have been used on the battlefield yet, but the American officials say the plan would be to send the weapons via third-party countries to hide the fact that they're coming from China.

2:10Colby Smith:Whether President Trump will bring any of that up on this visit, though, and pressure China over its support for Iran is an open question. He seems eager to keep the U.S. relationship with China stable rather than stirring up conflict. And notably, the war in Iran has actually tied the U.S. more closely to China. That's because China dominates global production of rare earth minerals, which are crucial components of U.S. weapons, from cruise missiles to fighter jets. One former U.S. trade official told The Times, quote, quote, every missile fired at Iran makes us that much more dependent in the near term on China.

2:55Meanwhile.

2:56Colby Smith:Now, the UK energy giant BP has just released its latest results, and it made profits of$3.2 billion in the past three months, double this time last year. As the war continues, oil companies have been posting spectacular profits.

3:11Sopan Deb:Shell, the latest firm to announce its first quarter results, the reported profits of just under$7 billion.

3:19Colby Smith:In recent weeks, they've been sharing huge earnings numbers, with the conflict rocking the global energy market. One executive saying the volatility has created opportunities. The Times global econ correspondent, Patty Cohen, has been digging into what is behind those sky-high profits.

3:36Patricia Cohen:One reason is obvious is look how much oil prices have gone up. If you're going to the gas station, if you're looking at your heating bill, whatever, you can see that the price has just shot up. But a second reason, which most people probably don't realize, which accounts for a huge portion, particularly of European oil companies' revenues in this first quarter, is because of their trading desks. Now, what do the trading desks do? They buy, sell, and they transport oil. And at a time when prices are very volatile, you can make money by trading. So let me give you an example. Total Energies, which is a French oil company, they made essentially a billion dollars in one day by trading oil.

4:23Patricia Cohen:And what they did was they bought up every single cargo of oil that was available in March that could be loaded in May. And just by buying up all of this supply, because they knew there was a shortage coming, they made a billion dollars.

4:41Colby Smith:Patty says the new profits have reignited a debate in Europe over whether to impose a temporary windfall tax on oil and gas companies' sudden jackpot. That money could then be used to help slash consumers' energy bills across the continent. Most EU countries did that in 2022 after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine drove oil prices way up. But it was a challenge to actually collect the money. One French economist told The Times that in response, oil giants did things like shift their profits to offshore tax havens.

5:22Sopan Deb:The ayes are 54. The nays are 45. The nomination is confirmed.

5:29Colby Smith:On Capitol Hill yesterday, the Senate voted in Kevin Warsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve. But even as he steps into the new job, there are major concerns in Washington over whether he will maintain the Fed's tradition of independence from the White House.

5:44Sopan Deb:Are you going to be the president's human sock puppet? Senator, absolutely not.

5:50Colby Smith:Are you going to be anybody's human sock puppet?

5:52Sopan Deb:No, I'm honored.

5:53Colby Smith:Warsh's confirmation hearings were filled with questions about whether he plans to do the bidding of President Trump, who handpicked him for the job. Trump has spent the last year and a half relentlessly attacking the outgoing Fed chair, Jerome Powell, for not lowering interest rates like he wanted him to. That threatened to break the longstanding norm of letting the central bank make its own decisions about what's best for the economy.

6:16Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs:I think that the big question for everyone is just how much runway is Trump going to give his Fed chair pick? Is he going to give him a couple of months to settle in and establish his own credibility? Or is he going to come right out of the gate and attack him for not being able to deliver the thing that he has kind of made clear was the precondition for whoever he was going to give the job to? And I think this is really going to come to a head as early as mid-June, which is the first meeting that Warsh is going to preside over as chair.

6:48Colby Smith:My colleague Colby Smith, who covers the Fed, says Warsh has repeatedly denied that he'll follow Trump's lead on interest rates. But he has said he wants to shake things up. Colby has more about his plans for what he's called regime change on today's episode of The Daily.

7:11Colby Smith:In South Carolina, the state's top court overturned the murder convictions against Alex Murdoch yesterday, a surprise reversal in one of the most high-profile homicide cases in the country. Murdoch was convicted in 2023 of killing his wife and his 22-year-old son. Their deaths on the family's rural hunting estate sparked intense fascination.

7:33Anton Troianovski:There are facts that don't add up and bodies tied to this family.

7:38Colby Smith:And the case set off a wave of true crime documentaries and podcasts. People were fascinated by the once prominent family, now engulfed in accusations of embezzlement and murder.

7:48Sopan Deb:They were implying that law enforcement may have been protecting the Murdochs from any consequences.

7:54Colby Smith:At his trial, a jury convicted Murdoch in less than three hours. after being shown a video of him at the crime scene, where he had originally denied being. Now, though, the state Supreme Court has ruled that a court clerk committed what it called shocking jury interference. Some jurors said that she would talk to them about Alex Murdoch's testimony, including saying that they should not be fooled by him. The clerk has also pleaded guilty to using her government job for personal gain by promoting a book she wrote about the case. The South Carolina Attorney General's Office will now retry Murdoch for the killings, which he denies committing.

8:29Colby Smith:He will remain behind bars, though, because he's also been sentenced to decades in prison for stealing millions of dollars from his law firm and former clients.

8:47And finally.

8:48Sopan Deb:Number 46, Jason Collins. You hear the applause, a historic moment as Jason Collins becomes the first openly gay athlete to play in any of this country's four major professional sports.

9:05Colby Smith:Jason Collins, the first active NBA player to come out as gay, died this week at 47 years old. His family said the cause was an aggressive form of brain cancer.

9:15Sopan Deb:I'll say something about Jason Collins. He seems like a terrific young man. And I told him I couldn't be prouder.

9:22Colby Smith:Back in 2013, Collins sparked a national conversation after he wrote an essay for Sports Illustrated, declaring, quote, I'm a 34-year-old NBA center, I'm black, and I'm gay. President Obama called him up. He was a guest at the next State of the Union, and he went on Oprah.

9:39Patricia Cohen:Can you imagine the first time you step out with a partner now? You think you're going to keep that a secret with your seven-foot seven?

9:46Colby Smith:It was a time when the gay rights movement was making significant strides, but gay marriage was not yet legal nationwide, and not all the reaction was positive. Some wondered if Collins' announcement would end his career. At that point, he'd played for multiple NBA teams for more than a decade and was a free agent. The Brooklyn Nets ultimately signed him, and he played for a few more months before retiring. While his groundbreaking announcement was celebrated as a major moment for professional sports, very few men have followed in Collins' path. Other male athletes have come out only after their careers are over.

10:23Colby Smith:And today, there are no openly gay active players in men's pro basketball, football, hockey, or baseball.

10:34Colby Smith:Those are the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow with the latest and the Friday News Quiz.

10:43Sopan Deb:This podcast is supported by Helen Keller International. This is a moment of growing urgency. Families around the world are facing widening gaps in healthcare and nutrition, but solutions are within reach. Just 75 cents can provide treatment for neglected tropical diseases, and$2 can help protect a child's sight and health. For a limited time, donations are being matched, helping expand that impact. Learn more at HelenKellerINTL.org slash the headlines.

From the publisher

Plus, a surprise reversal in the Murdaugh murder case. 

Here’s what we’re covering:

For Trump, the Iran War Looms Over China Summit, by Anton Troianovski

Blockbuster Oil Company Profits Revive Calls for Windfall Tax, by Patricia Cohen

Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, by Colby Smith

Murdaugh Murder Convictions Overturned by South Carolina’s Top Court, by Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs

Jason Collins, First Active N.B.A. Player to Come Out as Gay, Dies at 47, by Sopan Deb

Tune in every weekday morning, and tell us what you think at: theheadlines@nytimes.com.

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