Iran’s Next Supreme Leader, and the New Lucrative Pardon Industry for Rich Offenders

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0:37Today's Monday, March 9th. Here's what we're covering.

0:45The war with Iran has now entered its second week. Here are three key things The Times is tracking this morning. The country has named a new supreme leader, who both Israel and the U.S. have denounced. Attacks have continued in Iran and across the Gulf, hitting civilian infrastructure that's raised concerns about a potential water crisis. And the price of oil has surged above$100 a barrel for the first time in nearly four years. To start.

1:18Iran's top clerics have named Mushtaba Khamenei to lead the country. He's the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the U.S.-Israeli strikes last Saturday. He was groomed for the position and has strong military and political connections. Though at one point, his father had indicated to his close advisors that he didn't want his son to succeed him, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the selection process. The Islamic Revolution in 1979 was about toppling a monarchy and promising to end the hereditary transfer of power. His selection, despite that, suggests that those high up in the Iranian government have closed ranks at a time of crisis and are looking for continuity for the regime.

2:01Many opposed to the government have rejected the choice. Some people could be heard chanting death to Mushtaba from their windows after it was announced. At the same time, Israel has threatened to kill whoever takes the position. And President Trump warned this weekend that the next supreme leader, quote, is not going to last long without the approval of the United States. Second. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel hit hundreds of targets in Iran, with U.S. Central Command warning civilians in the country to stay inside. Israel went after several Iranian fuel depots, turning the sky in Tehran dark with thick, billowing smoke.

2:41And water desalination plants came under attack in Iran and Bahrain. Iran's foreign minister accused the U.S. of striking the one there, affecting the water supply for more than two dozen villages. The U.S. has denied that. Bahrain says its desalination plant was hit by an Iranian drone, as Iran's been attacking Gulf states, which are close allies of the U.S. One expert on the Middle East said the plants, which turn seawater into drinking water, are essential lifelines for tens of millions of people, and, quote, striking them risks turning a military confrontation into a direct threat to civilian survival.

3:22And lastly, we want it back below$3 a gallon, and it will be again before too long. Well, what do you mean by too long? How much longer? The ongoing conflict has driven up the price of fuel fast. Gas prices are now up 17 percent, and last night, oil prices surged past$100 a barrel. The Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, said on CNN that the U.S. is working on securing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for oil and gas that's been choked by the conflict. And, you know, that'll take some time. But again, worst case, that's a few weeks. That's not months. In an interview with Reuters, President Trump suggested he was prioritizing military operations over concerns about prices.

4:05He said, quote, they'll drop very rapidly when this is over. And if they rise, they rise. But this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit.

4:18In the U.S., internal government data indicates that after months of high-profile aggressive immigration raids, the Trump administration has slightly scaled back arrests, at least for now. Immigration arrests last month were at their lowest level since September, and the changes have been felt in some of the places hardest hit by President Trump's crackdown. In Los Angeles, a group that monitors immigration agents says there's been a noticeable decline in ICE and Border Patrol sightings. In Minnesota, the administration has withdrawn more than 2 ,000 agents. And in Chicago, officers are no longer stationed at Home Depot parking lots to question and arrest day laborers.

4:59Officials say the focus is now on more targeted operations rather than indiscriminate sweeps. The change comes after chaotic clashes between agents and protesters across the country, including the killing of two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis by federal agents. Polls show that a majority of Americans believe ICE's tactics went too far. Despite the dip in arrests, the number of people detained last month was still quadruple what it was in President Biden's last year in office. The Trump administration has repeatedly said it's actively pursuing criminals, though more than 40 percent of those arrested last month had no criminal record.

5:35The slight lull in arrests may also only be temporary. On multiple occasions last year, the White House said it was narrowing its focus, only to ramp up operations again weeks later.

5:51A new investigation from the Times has found that there's a lucrative industry emerging around trying to get pardons from President Trump. Through interviews and a review of court filings and lobbying records, the Times learned that a growing number of people are promising to help wealthy offenders get convictions erased and prison time cut short. In 2025 alone, lobbying firms disclosed receiving about eight times more money from clients trying to get clemency than the year before under Biden. One really interesting example that I found of the transactional industry that has emerged around President Trump and clemency is a guy by the name of Joseph Schwartz.

6:31He owned a nursing home empire that collapsed amid allegations of endangering the residents and defrauding his employees. And he ultimately pleaded guilty to charges related to tax fraud and got a three-year sentence. Ken Vogel covers the intersection of money and politics for The Times. He says before Schwartz reported to jail, he paid almost a million dollars to two men who talked a big game about their ability to gain access to the president and win clemency. That didn't seem to go anywhere, but he kept pushing. He ended up having to report to jail at this minimum security facility in Otisville, New York.

7:09And he quickly started talking to a guy who had connections, different connections in Trump world, to pro-Israel evangelicals. and Jewish figures. And this lobbyist ended up recommending that Joseph Schwartz and his family hire still other lawyers who were paid thousands of dollars more, who had connections to people who were involved in the clemency process, including one lawyer who had connections to the pardon czar inside the White House, and another lawyer who had connections to the White House counsel himself. It's not clear which, if any of these efforts did the trick, but after just three weeks behind bars at Otisville, Joseph Schwartz was freed by a full and unconditional pardon from President Trump.

7:52What I found in reporting out this story and others like it is that this pardon industry really prioritizes the ability to find someone who can get to the president and make the case for the pardon and not remorse, atonement, and the unlikelihood of recidivism, which were really the traditional things that pardon applicants used to stress when they were making their cases. Joseph Schwartz, the man who received the pardon, didn't respond to requests from the Times for comment. In a statement, the White House press secretary dismissed the notion that lobbyists have influenced Trump's clemency decisions, saying anyone spending money to lobby for pardons is foolishly wasting their money, and the president doesn't even know who these so-called lobbyists are.

8:46In Houston and New Orleans this weekend, the security lines at the city's airports stretched for hours, snarling people's plans and causing many to miss their flights, right as spring break travel is ramping up. The airports are struggling with staffing amid the ongoing partial government shutdown. Funding has lapsed for the Department of Homeland Security, which includes TSA. Agents are still required to work, but they only got about 30 percent of their pay last week and will miss their paychecks entirely next weekend unless funding's restored. Congress is still at odds over that, with Democrats refusing to fund DHS without limits on immigration enforcement.

9:25For now, the worst delays seem to have been contained to Houston and New Orleans, with other airports operating normally. But some airlines are warning passengers to show up three to four hours early. One thing to note if you're traveling, the TSA app, which shows wait times for security screenings, has not always been updated during the shutdown. For example, the lines in Houston stretched all the way downstairs to baggage claim, but at times the app showed a 0 to 15 minute wait.

10:01And finally. $52.64 for two bowls and two drinks at Chipotle. Americans on the go used to be all about the bowl. Onions, cucumber, tomatoes, lentils. People were piling up the ingredients onto what social media deemed the slop bowl, the kind of healthy, kind of mushy combination of protein and a grain and something green. $19? I don't know. But customers are getting tired of them and the high price tags. Restaurant prices have been rising at a sharper rate than groceries. One analyst calculated that over the last four years, the prices at Chipotle went up nearly 25 percent. Sweetgreen salads climbed almost 20.

10:45The price crunch hit low-income consumers first and is now affecting the middle-tier consumer, who was prime slot bowl demographic. Where there used to be lines out the door at lunchtime, sales and traffic at chains like that are down. Sweetgreen's stock plunged 76 % in the last year. At the same time, their fast food cousins, McDonald's, Burger King, Taco Bell, have been pushing their value menu deals, trying to scoop up newly price-conscious customers. The bull-centric companies may be eyeing that strategy now, potentially trying to roll out their own smaller offerings or more price-conscious options to win people back.

11:26Those are the headlines. today on The Daily, inside the fight between the Pentagon and the tech giant Anthropic over how AI should and shouldn't be used by the military. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow.

11:49This podcast is supported by Helen Keller International. This is a moment of growing urgency. families around the world are facing widening gaps in health care and nutrition but solutions are within reach just 75 cents can provide treatment for neglected tropical diseases and two dollars can help protect a child's sight and health for a limited time donations are being matched helping expand that impact learn more at helenkellerintl.org slash the headlines