Trump’s ‘Worst Case’ Scenario in Iran, and the Most Expensive Primary in U.S. History

0:28I'm David Sanger. From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Wednesday, March 4th. Here's what we're covering.

0:44The Times has learned Iran is on the verge of selecting its next supreme leader to head the regime after the U.S.-Israeli attacks killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend. According to three Iranian officials, the frontrunner is Khamenei's son, Moshtaba Khamenei. He's an influential but reclusive figure, known for his close ties to the country's revolutionary guards. One analyst in Tehran said that hardline supporters of Iran's government could back him quickly, viewing him as picking up the mantle of his martyred father. But a large portion of Iran could reject him for the very same reason, seeing him as a continuation of the oppressive regime that's killed thousands of anti-government protesters in just the last few months.

1:29The clerics making the selection could announce their decision as soon as today. It comes after President Trump said yesterday that the U.S.-Israeli strikes had taken out some of the Iranian officials the White House had viewed as potential successors. And now we have another group. They may be dead also, based on reports. So I guess you have a third wave coming in. Pretty soon we're not going to know anybody. Trump did not say specifically who the U.S. wanted to see lead the country. I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person, right?

2:05That could happen. We don't want that to happen. It would probably be the worst. You go through this and then in five years you realize you put somebody in who is no better. In all, Trump seems to be distancing himself from any long-term plans for Iran, which analysts say adds a new level of uncertainty to the situation. For years in Washington, we've heard about this maxim called the pottery barn rule. You break it, you own it. As in, if the U.S. decides to start a war in a country, it's responsible for the consequences. But in the last few days, President Trump has made it clear that he does not believe in the pottery barn rule at all.

2:44My colleague Anton Trojanovsky covers global affairs for The Times.

3:13And of course, in the case of Iran, the risks of this are immense. The more the central authorities, the security forces in that country are weakened, the more infrastructure there is destroyed, the more you have the risk of either chaos and civil war or an even more repressive regime taking hold. As of today, nearly 900 people have been killed in the fighting in the Middle East, the vast majority of them in Iran, which the U.S. and Israel have continued attacking. Iran has continued to hit back, striking targets all over the Gulf and choking off a key shipping lane for oil and gas, which has caused prices for those to surge, raising fears of widespread economic repercussions.

4:04Meanwhile, in Washington... The answers are very unsatisfying. They have shifting goals, different goals all the time, different answers every day. The Senate is expected to vote today on limiting the president's ability to continue to strike Iran, with Democrats saying the administration has failed to justify launching the operation without consulting Congress. In a letter to lawmakers, Trump said he ordered the airstrikes to advance U.S. interests and, quote, neutralize Iran's malign activities. That contradicted his own administration's earlier claims that there was an imminent threat. Officials with access to U.S.

4:46intelligence have also told The Times that Trump has exaggerated the immediacy of any danger Iran posed to the U.S. Republicans, on their part, have largely backed Trump's actions, saying previous presidents were unwilling to take strong action against Iran. Given the margins in Congress, that means the votes on the president's war powers are likely to fail.

5:13Now, one last thread to follow from all of this is how Israel is seizing this particular moment. Times Jerusalem bureau chief David Haubfinger says that in the past week, the Israeli government has been emboldened. We learned in the reporting here that Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel wanted his military commanders to begin preparing for a strike on Iran that would happen between April and June. The military wasn't so thrilled about that because that was a plan to act alone. But when the United States came on board, their tune changed. Now the United States would be bearing much of the burden, taking out much of its ballistic missile capacity in the east, and also, crucially, bringing many, many airborne refueling tankers, which make it possible for Israel to keep its fighters in the air over Iran almost indefinitely.

6:04That was a huge lift, and that really made it possible for Israel to be confident that it could go now. In addition to striking Iran in partnership with the U.S., Israel has also been carrying out deadly strikes in Lebanon, saying it's targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group there. Analysts say it's clear Israel had those plans in place for months, and when Hezbollah fired a volley of rockets this week, that gave Israel the pretext it needed. What we're really seeing here in both theaters of operation is a very confident Israel. It's confident in its military, in its technology, certainly in its intelligence, and now in its ability to really shape the region and its environment to its advantage.

6:51In Texas, one of the first big fights of the midterms played out last night with some nail-biting primaries for the U.S. Senate. Tonight, our campaign is shocking the nation. On the Democratic side, James Tallarico, a state lawmaker, defeated U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett. Tallarico was a virtual unknown until a few months ago, and he rallied support with Bible-infused messaging about bridging divides. Crockett, meanwhile, is viewed as a firebrand in the Democratic Party and has openly criticized its leadership. As of early this morning, she has yet to concede. I can tell you now that people have been disenfranchised.

7:30Crockett and others have raised concerns that there was confusion yesterday over where voters could cast their ballots in one of the state's biggest counties. Due to a rule change spurred by Republicans, some people showed up at incorrect locations and had to be redirected. A judge extended voting hours because of it, but a higher court nixed that, leaving some confusion about which votes will count. And on the Republican side... Well, you know, John Cornyn said he was concerned about a bunch of radicals who were going to show up to vote today. It looks like you all showed up. That bitter Senate primary is not over yet.

8:05I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we've worked so hard to build over these many years. U.S. Senator John Cornyn now faces a runoff with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after neither candidate reached the 50 percent threshold to win outright. The race has been contentious. Cornyn is a deal-making four-term senator, and he's been fighting for his political life against Paxton, who has survived multiple ethical and legal scandals to become a darling of MAGA voters. The race has also been expensive. The candidates and outside groups spent nearly$100 million on ads, a vast majority of that in support of Cornyn.

8:53Combined with the spending on the Democrats, these primaries are the most expensive in U.S. history. For the full results from last night's votes from Texas to North Carolina, go to nytimes.com.

9:09And finally. British Columbia is going to change our clocks just one more time and then never again. Another locale is saying, nope, nope, not anymore, to springing forward and falling back. The top government official in Canada's West Coast province announced they are done with all that. It creates all kinds of problems. Kids get up at the same time, even though the clock's changed. Parents lose sleep, kids lose sleep. In British Columbia, the shift this weekend will be their last. They're going to pick one time zone and stick with it. They're not alone. There's a huge amount of support for scrapping the twice-a-year time jumps.

9:50Most countries don't do it. In the U.S., it's a holdover from 100-plus years ago, though some go as far back as blaming Benjamin Franklin for it. The American Academy of Sleep Medicine has said it should stop, that it disrupts the body's natural clock, and that kind of shift can have health effects and lead to things like more traffic accidents. There is legislation to end it in the U.S., and that's made slow but steady progress in Congress. For now, though, it is still coming. So Sunday, remember, you're going to lose an hour. You're going to have to reset your clocks. Or maybe because you never bothered to do it last time, your microwave's going to finally be right again.

10:30Those are the headlines. Today on The Daily, a look at how the merger between Paramount and Warner Brothers could reshape the cultural and political landscape in the U.S. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow. You