U.S. Intelligence Undercuts Trump’s War Claims, and the Cost of ‘Alligator Alcatraz’

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0:35From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Will Jarvis, in for Tracy Mumford. Today is Wednesday, May 13th. Here's what we're covering.

0:46The Times has learned that secret U.S. intelligence assessments show Iran's military remains much stronger than the Trump administration has claimed. By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran's military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign obliterated Iran's military capabilities. And President Trump has claimed that Iran has, quote, nothing left in a military sense. But the classified intelligence sharply undercuts that. It shows Iran still has roughly 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile. The country has also restored access to almost all of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.

1:30And Iran has access to roughly 90 % of its underground missile storage and launch facilities. Officials the Times talked to said that's in part because of a tactical trade-off made by the U.S. military early in the war. It only had a limited supply of bunker-busting bombs, so it decided to try and just seal off the entrances to many of Iran's missile facilities instead of destroying them completely. Overall, the assessment suggests the U.S. underestimated Iran's resilience and its ability to bounce back. In response to questions about the intelligence, a White House spokesman repeated Trump's previous claims that Iran's military has been crushed, and the acting Pentagon press secretary accused The Times and other media outlets of acting as, quote, public relations agents for the Iranian regime.

2:17Meanwhile, as the war continues, new federal data shows that inflation has accelerated. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose last month at the fastest rate in three years. The increase was driven largely by energy prices. People are feeling that not just at the pump and with airline tickets, but with any goods that have to be transported by a diesel-fueled truck or on a boat, which is a lot of things. When President Trump was asked yesterday about whether Americans' economic pain was motivating him to wrap up the war, he had a blunt answer. Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters that I'm talking about Iran, they can't have a nuclear weapon.

2:54I don't think about American financial situation. I don't think about anybody. Facing the rise in prices for gas, groceries, and other staples, more and more American households are borrowing money to get by and signing up for new credit cards. That trend was already in the works even before these latest spikes. As of a couple months ago, credit card balances in the U.S. had reached a record$1.3 trillion.

3:26The Times has learned that Alligator Alcatraz, the controversial detention center in the middle of the Florida Everglades, is shutting down. We're surrounded by miles of treacherous swampland, and the only way out is really deportation. The facility opened last year with tents spread across an old airfield and was billed as one of a kind given its isolation and harsh surroundings. Why would you want to come through Alligator Alcatraz if you can just go home on your own? President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis played up the site's nickname and said its very existence would encourage undocumented immigrants to self-deport.

4:02The center was also talked up as an example of federal-state cooperation on immigration, with Florida operating the facility and the federal government paying the state back. But now, the Department of Homeland Security has determined that the remote site was too expensive and Florida is going to close it down, according to multiple people familiar with the plans. Florida has been spending more than a million dollars a day to run the center, and it's still waiting to get back more than$600 million from the federal government. In the short time that it was open, the center faced criticism for conditions there.

4:35Detainees described it as unsanitary and inhumane, rain leaking into tents, infrequent showers, lack of access to medication. Florida officials have dismissed those claims as completely false. As of last month, there were about 1 ,400 detainees held at the center. It's not clear where they will go now, but they're expected to be moved out by the beginning of next month.

5:01Firefighters on the front lines urgently racing to put out several blazes from the ground to the air. In the southeastern U.S., states are seeing an unusually early and unusually intense start to wildfire season. The embers spread by high winds and the smoke now draped over Atlanta, making the air... Large fires in Georgia and Florida are being driven by severe widespread drought that's been gripping the region. We have not seen the proper amount of rain for months and months on end. The dry conditions have made the blazes extremely dangerous and harder to contain, with one Georgia forestry official describing flames dozens of feet high.

5:39So far, the fires have destroyed at least 120 homes, and one firefighter has been killed. The southeast is known as the nation's woodbasket due to the sprawling timber plantations there, some of which are now burning. Overall, research has shown that fires in the region are becoming more frequent, which scientists suspect is a result of climate change. Even areas that haven't traditionally burned in the past, like wetlands, are now catching on fire.

6:11And finally... Let the Eurovision song contest begin! Eurovision kicked off last night. I can't hear you! The campy, glittery spectacle is the most watched cultural event on the planet, with singers from more than 30 countries competing and viewers casting millions of votes. You, you, you and you at home, all of you can vote and decide how this evening unfolds. It's supposed to just be about who has the best song, and the competition is adamant that it has nothing to do with politics, but a controversy over Israel's involvement and what the country has done to try and influence the contest has engulfed Eurovision.

6:53So when Israel came in second last year and won the popular vote, it was surprising. I was at a watch party at the time. I remember people gasped audibly. You know, some of these countries where Israel won, anti-Israel sentiment was actually quite high at the time. And so we set out to understand how that could happen. My colleagues Mara Vistendahl and Alex Marshall have been looking at how the Israeli government has tried to use Eurovision basically as a PR campaign, a way to try and shore up the country's public image amid outcry over the war in Gaza. That's included throwing money into marketing an Israeli contestant.

7:30We found that some of that money came from an office under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that's essentially tasked with overseas propaganda. It definitely broke norms at the time. And, And, you know, you could ask, well, why spend this much on social media ads and do those ads really have an effect? But we learned, because we were able to obtain vote data from some countries, that it's actually surprisingly easy to influence Eurovision results. And, you know, other governments have gotten involved in Eurovision in the past to some degree, but nothing to the extent of what we saw with Israel in our reporting.

8:12In response to questions, the director of Eurovision told The Times that Israel's actions were excessive, but denied that they affected the outcome. This year, five countries are boycotting Eurovision entirely over Israel's involvement, including Spain, Ireland and Iceland. Mara says Eurovision is taking a hit with all of this, losing money, struggling with sponsors. And it's possible that viewership, which usually numbers over 160 million people, could see a dip.

8:41Those are the headlines. Today on The Daily, what to know about President Trump's visit to China, where he's set to land this morning. You can listen to that in the New York Times app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Will Jarvis. The show will be back tomorrow with Tracy Mumford. www.hems .com

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