#442: Can ultrasound + AI predict premature births?

15 Apr 2026 · 1 h 16 min · 31 chapters

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In short

Founder Robert Bunn discusses ultrasound.ai’s AI that predicts when a pregnancy will end (including miscarriage and premature delivery) from ultrasound images, aiming to give clinicians weeks/months of warning to intervene and prepare for NICU-level care.

Guest background

Robert Bunn is founder and president of ultrasound.ai. He studied chemistry/biochemistry, taught himself computer science, built early software startups (including “Cyschem” for molecule synthesis and a Google search Boolean refinement tool), later worked in oil-industry data science/AI, and shifted to health tech after his wife experienced multiple miscarriages.

Key claims

  1. Current estimated delivery dates (40-week assumption) rarely match reality; only ~1–2% deliver on that date.
  2. His AI predicts the actual delivery date from ultrasound images alone.
  3. In studies, he reports R-squared 0.92 for days-until-delivery and 0.72 for births before 37 weeks/miscarriages; also 0.74 for predicting iatrogenic delivery timing (doctor-induced for maternal danger).

Notable examples

  • AI finds multiple predictive anatomical regions beyond cervical length (e.g., ovaries, placenta, uterus, umbilical artery).
  • Potential use: preparing for obstetric deserts by timing transfer to NICU-capable hospitals.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Robert's Journey into Science and Tech

0:45 to 2:51

Robert shares his educational background and initial struggles in the job market.

“There's a heck of a story in there, Robert.”

The Birth of Cyschem

2:51 to 5:19

Robert discusses the creation of his first startup and the challenges faced.

“you had to figure out how to assemble them all using millions of different reactions.”

Lessons from Failure

5:19 to 7:30

Insights on what Robert learned from his first startup failure.

“Well, I had co-founders, but they were equally bad as I was at all the things.”

Overcoming Setbacks

7:30 to 9:30

A discussion on how to recover from entrepreneurial failures and regain confidence.

“I mean, it also comes to being able to recognize your own personal failures and your own personal lack of understanding of yourself and your own responsibility for the failures.”

The Second Startup Experience

9:30 to 12:20

Robert explains his next startup project and the skills he developed along the way.

“Um, you know, cause I thought, well, maybe that was my, that was the problem.”

The Nature of Entrepreneurship

12:20 to 14:04

Exploration of the mindset and resilience required for entrepreneurship.

“I'm trying to think of all the search engines 25 years ago.”

The Entrepreneurial Mindset

14:04 to 18:10

Explore the mindset and resilience of entrepreneurs facing market challenges.

“Because ultimately, they know they're going to win or die trying in the entrepreneurship game.”

Transitioning to Data Science

18:10 to 22:25

Learn about the journey from software development to data science in a changing job market.

“And then, um, let's see, then I've, then I stopped, you know, doing startups for a while.”

Addressing Premature Births

22:25 to 24:55

Discover the challenges of premature births and the need for predictive solutions.

“years all these things happen and now but but it was becoming the point where deep neural networks should actually look at an image and be like, this is a dog, this is a cat, things like that.”

Using AI in Ultrasound Imaging

24:55 to 28:00

Investigate how AI can be utilized to predict delivery dates from ultrasound images.

“And when they're happening, it's just too late.”
Show all 31 chapters

The Birth of an AI Project

28:00 to 28:37

Learn how the speaker built a supercomputer to analyze ultrasound data.

“And so I built a supercomputer from parts in my basement.”

Predicting Delivery Dates with AI

28:37 to 31:00

Explore how AI can predict accurate delivery dates beyond traditional methods.

“the, the data, which the baby would be born if it gets to term and all is fine, or are you predicting the date no matter what, even if there's an issue, what's, what's the prediction at this stage?”

The Entrepreneurial Journey

31:00 to 33:38

Understand the challenges and persistence needed in innovation for healthcare.

“Now they can see if they got a problem and do some things and then go back and get another delivery date.”

Learning from Failure

33:38 to 34:19

Discover the importance of learning from failures in the tech development process.

“I mean, sometimes you just have to be smart enough to realize that you're just fundamentally on a wrong track and maybe just kind of maybe pivot.”

AI's Analytical Approach

34:19 to 36:59

Examine how AI analyzes ultrasound images for predicting pregnancy outcomes.

“And so I know and I understand and I can sympathize, not empathize with that fire being lit within you to solve a problem.”

Correlations Discovered by AI

36:59 to 42:00

Learn about the various anatomical correlations that AI found for predicting births.

“basically, and you have to sort it out and figure out what matters and then be able to predict a delivery date from this.”

Predicting Premature Births with AI

42:00 to 43:34

Learn how AI can forecast future health conditions in pregnant women.

“Even if that's 32 weeks, it's got to happen or they'll both die.”

Challenges of Training AI Algorithms

43:34 to 45:01

Discover the difficulties in obtaining medical data for AI training.

“but we're just in the very earliest days of this.”

Addressing Bias in AI and Healthcare

45:01 to 49:46

Examine how AI can minimize bias in predicting health outcomes.

“So for the first question on obtaining medical data is really hard, really, really, really hard.”

Navigating Relationships with Clinicians

49:46 to 56:00

Understand the importance of evidence and trust in healthcare innovation.

“But sometimes that's fallible, I guess, obviously, because we're all humans and we can't make perfect judgment calls every time.”

Collaboration Between Tech and Clinicians

56:00 to 57:00

Explore the importance of collaboration between innovators and clinicians in health tech.

“And so, so, so they want, I think they want, I mean, I'm certain they all want me to succeed with this.”

FDA Approval Process Insights

57:00 to 59:40

Understand the challenges and distinction of the FDA de novo approval process.

“What does the plan look like from here for commercialization and what you hope to achieve?”

Device Use and Population Focus

59:40 to 1:02:30

Learn about the specific use cases and target populations for the new device.

“And generally, uh, these, these product codes are, they appear to be just random, three let random letters like X G Q or something.”

Empathy in Health Tech Development

1:02:30 to 1:06:00

Discuss the importance of empathy and understanding in the healthcare ecosystem.

“And so we gotta, we gotta come up with that evidence, submit it to them, file for that, and just, you know, do all the process again, should be a little easier.”

Growth and Revenue Strategies

1:06:00 to 1:09:50

Examine the financial strategies for a health tech startup post-approval.

“I was just hoping one day that would, I would have that motivation.”

Global Impact of AI in Maternal Care

1:09:50 to 1:10:01

Discover how AI can enhance maternal care in underserved regions worldwide.

“Is there a particular country or particular area or region that you're excited about?”

The Promise of AI in Maternal Care

1:10:01 to 1:10:57

Explore how AI can enhance ultrasound technology in underdeveloped areas.

“It depends on what the angle is, I suppose.”

Challenges in Scaling Medical Technology

1:10:58 to 1:11:55

Learn about the challenges faced in scaling medical technology in developed countries.

Navigating Growth in Healthcare Startups

1:11:56 to 1:13:04

Understand the struggles of explosive growth in healthcare startups and the associated regulatory hurdles.

“So, I mean, we're trying to move quickly to cover as many people as possible.”

The Future of Preventative Healthcare

1:13:05 to 1:14:26

Discuss the potential of technology in advancing preventative healthcare and maternal support.

“It's a, it's a classy problem to feel that you have as well.”

Engaging and Collaborating in Research

1:14:27 to 1:15:38

Find out how to engage with the speaker for research and collaboration opportunities.

“their pregnancy journey and helping those neonates get the best care that they need.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:26Hey everybody, delighted to be joined by Robert Bunn today. He's founder and president of ultrasound.ai. Robert's got an interesting announcement for us today, some exciting stuff happening at the company. And I hear a fascinating story from data science into what you're doing now, entrepreneurship, founder and president. There's a heck of a story in there, Robert. I can't wait to hear it. How are you doing, sir? Oh, I'm doing great. I'm really happy to be here. Awesome, man. Listen, the first question I ask is for you to tell your story. And yeah, I hear there's a lot in there. So by all means, Robert, why don't you take it away?

1:02Maybe I should start at the very beginning. It might make a lot more sense that way. So a long time ago, when I was going to college, I really didn't know what I wanted to do. And I've always been good in the sciences and always found the sciences interesting. But I guess I didn't have any particular passion for any particular sciences. I enjoyed the sciences in general. I went to college to get a degree. I ended up getting a degree in chemistry, biochemistry. It was interesting stuff, but then I got to the real world where you have to get a job and actually get a paycheck. I can assure you, a lot of the natural sciences pay horribly.

1:51you cannot live on what someone just out of college and a degree in chemistry can make if you can even get a job at all this was a long time ago so I have no idea if it's any different now but I suspect it's probably exactly the same anyhow so I tried getting jobs in the field of chemistry and it was brutal it was really brutal and I got to realizing this just isn't going to work I can't even make rent half the time and I live in a crappy apartment. So that's just sad. I don't know if I can do this the rest of my life. So what I did was I started teaching myself computer science. I came up with an idea for a computer program that could figure out how to develop molecules from simpler compounds.

2:41Because currently, well, not currently, but it used to be that if you wanted to, say, design a new drug or design a cheaper way to make a drug or any molecule, a human had to, out of all these millions of potential starting chemicals, you had to figure out how to assemble them all using millions of different reactions. And the permutations were intractable for the human mind. And so I invented this software, it was called Cyschem. But basically what it did was it figured out every way you could possibly make a molecule from every starting material, every reaction, no demand. And it worked, actually worked great.

3:18The problem was, is that I had no idea. I was in an area that really had no entrepreneurial support, if you will, a really rural area. And it ended up failing, not because it wasn't a great technology and it worked and definitely a lot of value. But I didn't know how to even begin doing a startup or really what a startup probably was. you know, just, you know, just, you know, that we didn't have the, uh, the media we have today where you can educate yourself. We didn't, you know, YouTube, YouTube wasn't really available that much for back then. And, and so there's really no place to learn. And, and I had to make it up myself and I had no idea because I had no background whatsoever in this kind of thing.

3:58So that, that startup failed, uh, unfortunately, but, but I did learn a lot of things. And the reason it failed was, you know, a lack of capital. Uh, so that was one, one early lesson that I found is that. And also how to market a scientific discovery. Learning what's actually useful to the customer. Because I thought, well, as a chemist, how could any chemist not want something like this? Well, I later learned out the hard way that the chemists aren't the ones signing the contracts. It's the CEOs that are signing the contracts that may not be chemists. They may not understand half of what they even do at their company.

4:40So I learned a lot of hard lessons as to the people that might be using your technology might not be the people who you have to sell it to. And then how to create the value proposition, how to prove the value proposition. Oh, wow. Looking back, there was zero chance I would have succeeded. Even if someone gave me$20 million back then, I still think that would have failed even though the technology worked great yeah i would i would have failed on so many other critical levels and i didn't even realize the other critical levels that that were completely necessary to success yeah back then um so you know that was failure number one yeah we're going to talk about a lot of them i guess it's crazy i wonder if you could change one thing that you think would be the highest leverage thing to turn that failure into your success, what do you think it would have been?

5:35Maybe a co-founder? Well, I had co-founders, but they were equally bad as I was at all the things. So they were computer scientists. So I was just a very beginning computer programmer and they were actually professional computer programmers. So it was just basically three co-founders, all who had skills in the same thing and completely lacked all the other skills you really need for doing a startup and all this. So that was also another lesson was if you're going to have a co-founder, you need to make sure that you have diversity of knowledge in your co-founder base someone's got to understand the other things i talked about maybe someone has to understand the technology and how to do technology great but someone got to understand the business because you have the best technology in the world but that that's not good enough that's not going to get you there and uh so that's one you know first of many hard lessons which will thoroughly go through all my failures in life here so uh how do you pick how do you pick yourself up from something like that because I imagine you're young, you've thrown everything into this that you had at the time, you were passionate, it was the first big idea, you've sunk loads of time in, you've sunk probably a lot of yourself and your own identity into it.

6:45We've all had first businesses, right? A lot of people listening will have had first businesses or first ideas or projects or whatever it is that you give so much of yourself to. And then when that first thing fails, it's like the first love, isn't it? It's the hardest one to come back from because you've never had to do this before. You've got no reference point of ever having recovered from this before. So it's almost impossible to see, like, how will I pick myself up from this? Will I ever do this again? How did you go through that to then build your confidence again? And some practical stuff as well, you know, genuinely, how did you make rent after that?

7:21Like, was that like going back to a job or were you born and bred entrepreneur that I can't do that? I need to go and build the next thing. That's actually a really interesting period for us to just zoom in on a little bit, I think. Yeah. I mean, it also comes to being able to recognize your own personal failures and your own personal lack of understanding of yourself and your own responsibility for the failures. Because I think for an entrepreneur, especially your co-founders, it's really easy to put the blame on everyone else except for yourself, right? Yeah, that's true. And I think I fell partially, I mean, I should probably fill in that trap probably more than I care to admit.

8:00I mean, since it's 25 years later, I guess I can be a little honest about, you know, because I've learned these lessons, you know, some of them the hard way. But so, I mean, I think probably the reason I was able to keep going is because I just couldn't admit to myself the degree I actually should have that of how much I owned this failure. and I probably blamed it on customers who just weren't smart enough or my other co-founders not being counted enough or working hard enough. It's easy to justify your own failures and kind of put them on someone or something other than yourself. And I think that's probably one of the biggest growth, I guess, that any entrepreneur needs to have.

8:40Most people aren't born with that ability to just introspective honesty with themselves. And I think to become a successful founder, entrepreneur, you got to learn that really quickly. You got to learn, be able to recognize your own weaknesses, how you failed, your responsibility for failures. Because if you don't, if every failure is someone else's fault, then you will never stop failing. And that's a lesson I learned. Luckily, I was able to, I mean, I did learn it immediately at that point. But after maybe a decade, I think, after a few more failures, I guess, took a few more failures. but I gradually started realizing well the you know to answer your question I was just working a job where and I I just lived in an apartment with no furniture I was eating like ramen and stuff overheads is the answer yeah yeah so I just basically was basically a really cheap life to live and I you know just worked enough so I could you know pay the bills and then I just kept going with you know the next startup immediately thereafter you know because I was like oh well it's just it's just because you know the other people around me failed and and so I did this new startup without any co-founders.

9:45Um, you know, cause I thought, well, maybe that was my, that was the problem. I was, I was learning that was not the problem, but you know, that's what I did next. And so I, uh, you know, I did another, uh, startup where basically it was, um, uh, kind of this cool little tool where you could, uh, highlight some text in, uh, in your Google search pages and it would help you visually, uh, refine your searches using the advanced Boolean logic. These days, most people don't even have any idea what I'm talking about. But 25 years ago, if you wanted to do an effective search and say Google, you could type in your search for the Eiffel Tower or something.

10:24And then you'd get a trillion pages on the Eiffel Tower. And, well, let's say you wanted to learn, well, what is the Eiffel Tower made of? How is it constructed? Who's the engineer for it? Maybe really technical details. How many rivets are in the Eiffel Tower? Whatever the case may be, right? well you're going to be searching a long time on google if you're just going through every list of you know search eiffel tower and so what i created was like a cool little tool where if you look through your search results and you see some text that was more in line with what the direction you wanted to go down you could just highlight the text a little button would pop up next to it like a plus or minus and you could say plus or my i want more like this less like this and it would it would add the boolean logic to the search query and so you could very rapidly build up complex Boolean search courses at Google without having to understand all that complicated things you could do.

11:15A lot of people never did it, ever had probably just now finding out for the first time you could do all this even. But yeah, so basically a lot of people do really sophisticated searching, Google search with that. And it was actually pretty cool. I would talk to some guys at Microsoft and they thought it was a really cool little tool. But the second problem I had was that one was capital, and B was figuring out how to monetize this whole thing. You have this great tool, but how do you make money off of something that's just kind of really embedded as a plug-in in a browser or a web page? And then always the logical – not the logical, but the answer you'd always get, especially a long time ago, was basically embed ads into everything.

11:58It was, you know, in-depth ads and it like that was always the answer to any kind of web, you know, monetization. And well, that kind of looked stupid to put an ad basically like a little tool that was supposed to be quick and easy to use. And so obviously then the only other model was that for, you know, someone to license it. But, you know, it didn't make enough impact on, you know, Google or, you know, the other search engines. I'm trying to think of all the search engines 25 years ago. AltaVista back then. Yeah, all of them. Yeah, so, but that was, I mean, it was another good learning lesson because that was a different, yeah, because I learned a lot of software skills doing this, you know, JavaScript.

12:39Oh, I see. So it helped me, it gave me a real world project where I could learn, you know, learn software, you know, to a greater degree where I could, you know, begin to do it professionally and use it more, you know, actually be able to do that as a job. Because I'd start, I basically taught software well enough into myself that I could actually now go do this as a job. So, anyway, it's suffice to say this obviously failed. And I think it was more, I think it was less of a serious, it wasn't really a serious startup, to be honest with you. It was kind of like, well, maybe somehow this could take off.

13:10But it's a really cool project that I'm learning from. And then I could get a job that pays a lot better than the one I'm currently doing. And this is when software is starting to pay really good money, too. And I was enjoying doing the coding and all that stuff. So it was kind of a hybrid, kind of a little project. Maybe something comes out, maybe it doesn't, but I'm learning a lot of valuable stuff that can take me to the next step because I can maybe do another startup where I can do my own programming and don't need to depend on technical co-founders. Obviously, co-founders are a problem. It's interesting just to jump in a little bit.

13:44I think it's an underrated mentality that I know this might not be the thing that will make me rich but it's sharpening me up it's I'm learning skills I'm developing I'm understanding I'm having to put the reps in in entrepreneurship and I think entrepreneurs will even if they're not feeling the financial success will still like it to some extent I think there's some um there's some nature of entrepreneurs that does seem to somewhat enjoy getting beaten up by the market and being taught these lessons if you know what i mean like i think i think i think there is a slight masochism there that start that the you know we have we have like we have a mixture of people on here i think there's there's definitely a cohort people ask if you know if entrepreneurs are born or bred and i think i think people can learn the skills of becoming an entrepreneur if even if they didn't have their first business at the age of four selling something at school like I can I can completely appreciate that there are people that can learn those skills I do almost put myself towards that category to be perfectly honest but I do also think there are these people that that come on here that do kind of enjoy getting beaten up by the market and being taught the lessons and actually those people don't need to put the big Ivy League school on their CV They don't need to craft their career so it looks a certain way because that will give them stability.

15:19Because ultimately, they know they're going to win or die trying in the entrepreneurship game. And ultimately, they're happy either way. And it's funny. I'm just wondering where you'd put yourself on that. Are you enjoying this process so far of kind of getting beaten up by the market and figuring things out and knowing that you're learning? or on some level are you are you kind of stacking anxieties here of going like oh no is this ever going to happen for me like i'm interested oh no i'm a glutton for punishment okay i'll be honest with you i actually sold uh gummy worms at school when i was uh in fourth grade as a side business that's interesting you brought that up so i completely forgot about that but yeah so that's how i make extra money about selling candy uh to to kids you know so i know what category and immediately when you say that yeah so i completely forgot about that yeah so no i actually just i mean i don't it's kind of weird but when i get beat up and sometimes i intentionally look for because it makes me fight harder and you know i guess we'll see who gets the last laugh you know kind of scenario for me i don't it's kind of a weird mentality i don't know how many people would share that but sometimes i go looking for the punishment um and and because you know i'll you know get beat up on a on a zoom meeting by someone who you know someone you're you're wasting my time you're not you're not ready for this or that or you know all that and i kind of need that i i kind of need that that abuse i guess and it's because i get off that meeting and i fight 10 times harder and i don't i don't know how how common that is but yeah that i that's that's me and so a lot of people working for me now are gonna be like oh now we get it because there are these meetings too getting beat up but they don't they don't they don't find it as enjoyable as i do i guess but uh but so uh so yeah there's been a lot of uh like uh now a lot of light bulbs are probably going on from people who work for me or have worked for me like wondering what what is wrong with this guy but uh yeah so it's it's kind of a weird flaw but i don't know it might work in in when you're talking in startup world i guess but yeah so I uh so I did that because it I enjoyed it was fun I was learning I was being able to build things and it was cool and I showed it to people like oh this is really cool you know and and I just I just kind of it was kind of I did it for the love of it to some degree and that was probably the only startup I really well the only startup that I did that I didn't think was going to be a real startup at all and I didn't have no I didn't really have any um any intentions of making it big I knew it probably couldn't be big but it was I was kind of enjoying doing it it's kind of a fun little side hobby and whether it lived or died, I guess, didn't matter to anyone near the world, really fundamentally.

17:58So it was, it was that. Um, but then, um, and of course that would, that one failed, but I don't know if I'm necessarily called a failure. It was kind of a passion project. Run his course. Yeah. Yeah. And then, um, let's see, then I've, then I stopped, you know, doing startups for a while. Cause I just, I just, I mean, I needed, I needed a break from i needed to get i wanted to make some real money so i could you know actually establish myself you know get a house and not live in a you know a crappy apartment eating ramen the rest of my life you know so i um i basically got a job as a software developer just doing you know regular software development uh things like dot net this is how that's old i'm really i'm really aging i dating myself with all this but cc sharp and all that stuff and the heydays of all that um and then I saw the winds changing and I was in the oil industry at the time and all of a sudden everyone was data science, data science, data science and I really didn't know background related statistics or any of that stuff other than what you kind of learn from your science classes and maybe some borderline stuff in computer science.

19:08But that was a hot new job and it seemed really cool because then also So this data science seemed to include, at least for other people's description of it, of being able to do modeling of predicting the most likely answer for this input is this, which is algorithms, basically. Not like deep neural networks where you can put an image and this is a cat, but the kind of the very simplistic algorithms that do stuff in that direction, I guess, you know, classify things, do regression. Anyhow, so I got into that because that seemed really cool, not because I really enjoyed doing statistics, but unfortunately, that was a huge part of the job.

19:46So I had to basically teach myself how to do all this stuff because I knew the coding, the programming was a key part of data science, at least in the direction that I went with it. And so I taught myself a lot of stuff, and it was a fake-it-till-you-make-it scenario, basically. I'm sure I oversold my abilities probably more than I should have. and I was just at night studying everything I could trying to catch up and understand this subject as fast as possible. It was a new subject. So there really wasn't a whole lot of really experts out there because it was kind of a new thing. But I'd say a common theme in startups is just to fake it till you make it.

20:26Because I mean, most people, if you're creating some new thing, there's no one to tell you how to do it. So you have to fake it until you make it, right? There's just no other way. If you're doing something that's completely new in the world, there's who's who's going to teach you how to do it who's going to certify you know how to do it there is no on you so you are you're fundamentally faking it till you make it right that's just that's how you've done a good job i think that's the other thing that's uh quite difficult i think for a lot of people as well is that there's actually there's actually no one to just say to to even tell you you're on the right path or that this has been done before in this way particularly if it's a new business model as well as a new technology in a certain clinical area and health tech or whatever it is like it's you you cannot even know and actually without even the validation of other people just telling you you're doing a good job it's yeah it can be quite lonely in a difficult place technically emotionally all the rest of it is tough oh you need to have a self confidence that's just off the charts yeah you you just gotta it's you gotta be delusional i mean i would say i'm yeah i my moments where i'm looking back i was just absolutely completely delusional and i was necessary on here say the same thing definitely and it's necessary you you have to believe in yourself so much that it's delusional because there's no you're not you're not going to make it.

21:35If you don't, you just, no matter what happens, I can do this. No matter what happens, I can do this. And you have to tell yourself that for years and years and years. But now we're getting to the part of the story where we're getting to actually a success in my life here. So I've enjoyed talking about all my endless failures over the years, but I want other people to hear. I think it's important. I mean, I'm okay with telling everyone how I failed and what caused me to fail and all that, because then hopefully maybe they can skip a few of the failures I had to do and get to the success a little faster than I did not have to learn everything the hard way which I did right and so we're in data science land in the oil industry and so that was and that's when AI was beginning to become serious you know the very earliest you know AlexNet I think it was the 2016 the really early it's been so long I forgot what years all these things happen and now but but it was becoming the point where deep neural networks should actually look at an image and be like, this is a dog, this is a cat, things like that.

22:37And so I was learning that stuff because I was using it for the oil industry to help find the oil. And this is the latest and greatest was in deep metal networks and that kind of thing. And so I was learning that. But the oil market tanked at one point completely. And basically everyone got fired because there's no money. And the price of oil was dropping like a rock. and so I had to find something new to do with my life. Being a software developer, data scientist, I could go into any field, literally any field. So there's nothing stopping me from going into getting an equally good paying job, going over to some cable company or just whatever.

23:18So I mean, I wasn't panicked like, oh, what am I going to do now? I mean, I can make 200K a year doing software developments. I'm good, but I just didn't feel like that was just a meaningful use of my life because I've been doing this for about a decade. of just not really just, you know, basically paycheck to pay, you know, just collecting paychecks, punching the clock basically for a long time. And, and it just, it just, I wasn't happy at all because I feel like, well, what am I, what am I doing? And I, you know, and that's just not my personality maybe. And so as it turns out, my wife's suffered numerous miscarriages and I got to thinking when I figured out what new, what can I do with my life, you know, and after this, instead of, you know, going to find a job at a cable company or something, I'm like, well, Maybe I can figure out how AI might be able to help with this because that's the promise of AI is that it can hopefully eventually do things that humans can.

24:08You hopefully discover things that humans didn't discover. And I mean, obviously, this is a little optimistic at this point in time for AI, obviously. But I got to thinking that. So I did get a decent paying job so I could work on this on the side because I did have a family to support. But I kind of did the 40-hour-a-week job and then, of course, spent the rest of my time another 40 hours a week doing this. And so what I had to think about is after all these numerous miscarriages, I was wondering, well, how can this happen over and over again? And why are the doctors not able to do anything about it?

24:40And I have no medical background whatsoever. I mean, I've got a lot of background in a lot of fields, but medicine actually wasn't one of them. And so I had to do a little bit of research and I discovered that with premature births and miscarriages, the biggest problem is they're unpredictable and they're surprised. And when they're happening, it's just too late. You just got to deal with the fallout. And with a miscarriage, that's obviously, you know, just obviously there's no good outcome on that one. But a premature birth is a similar situation. But at least with premature births, they can, you know, NICUs and all that can keep the baby alive.

25:13So at least you can get some kind of happiness out of that in the end. But in the miscarriage scenario, obviously, there was no happiness to be gained from that scenario. So I got to thinking, okay, well, what can I do to help? What is the solution to this? Because that sounds like that's the problem. It's just the surprise nature of this. And I got to thinking, well, if I could give doctors weeks or months of warning, then they would have some time to kind of change, potentially change course on these things. And I got thinking, okay, so what could I use to give the doctors that warning? And of course, I realized from my wife's experiences that all women get ultrasound imaging done, at least one during the pregnancy, but sometimes eight, 10, depending if they're on high risk or not.

26:00And sometimes there's one as early as six weeks to confirmation, then maybe another 20 a week to make everyone's healthy, right? And so the imaging, I'm like, okay, so if I could take the imaging and somehow predict the date the baby in it will be born, and then the doctor could decide, is that okay? If I'm good with that, then we're good. If I'm not okay, then I need to do something, you know, and I've got warning and I got time to do something. I talked to a few doctors about this, and I told them, you know, I'd like, I think I can create an AI that can just predict the exact delivery date from these ultrasound images alum.

26:35And a lot of them told me, or basically all of them told me, the ones I talked to at that time, said, this is absolutely impossible because if you could determine this from looking at ultrasound images, we would already be doing it today. So I don't understand what you think you're going to get if we can see the images too. And we can't see that. And so I guess I'm not a good listener. You can ask my wife. My wife will tell you this too. but um so so i realized that ai was at this time starting to beat humans at image tasks uh being better classifying images this is when it was beating human capabilities i think approximately we're getting close one of the two is inching its way to human capability clearly going to exceed at some point like i think well i mean eventually i can remember these days because it was it was it was called computer vision wasn't it and there was all this there was there was so many use cases of traffic and spotting cats and dogs and it was everything it was everywhere it was it was all sorts but yeah i remember it very vividly well then don't forget the hot dog not hot dog uh exactly that's a classic classic right yeah but uh my favorite show of all time silicon valley but uh i actually learned a lot about some show shocking at least it's kind of funny i don't know how many other people can say that but i i I got some insights from that one.

27:52But anyhow, so I, so yeah, so the doctor said this couldn't be done. And, but I thought, well, maybe it can be done. And so I didn't have, you know, the money to buy a huge, powerful computer. And so I built a supercomputer from parts in my basement. Wow. Basically, you know, built a bunch of really powerful computers and kind of change them, chain them together with software. And, you know, that sounds fun. and so because that's i mean that's the only way i was gonna get the computer power necessary to do something like this and so i got it so you know so got some ultrasound data along with uh the outcomes and i set off to create an ai that could just look at the ultrasound images alone nothing else and then predict the delivery date from that and i was working on that for a year just to jump in one sec when you say delivery date i just want to be super clear so are you there predicting the the, the data, which the baby would be born if it gets to term and all is fine, or are you predicting the date no matter what, even if there's an issue, what's, what's the prediction at this stage?

28:57Oh yeah. That's the, that's a good clarification. A lot of people don't realize there's, there's a good distinction that most people don't realize. Um, so right now the doctors give what's known as an estimated delivery date and the date that they give doctors now is a date. They believe the baby turns 40 weeks old. Exactly. Yes. Um, and that's the ideal, basically that's the ideal date for baby born, but only maybe one or 2 % of babies are actually born on their estimated delivery date. And obviously that predicts, doesn't predict any premature births, any miscarriages, any problems whatsoever, or even babies that go after.

29:25It's just 40 weeks is the ideal. And this is your, this is your best, this is our best guess. Um, and so the, the date that we're, that I was planning predicting is the predicted date could be a miscarriage. It could be when the baby's only 10 weeks old is when they actually, the baby will actually be born. Wow. So this is absolutely revolutionary in the field of obstetrics. Doctors still question if this is possible, even though I have all the evidence that proves it is at this point. But I think people are starting to come around. But yeah, so I spent a year in my basement trying to come up with an AI that could predict, basically predicting how many days will this baby be born from the date this image was taken.

30:04and it, you know, whether that's a miscarriage or premature birth or normal, normal delivery. And obviously if it's predicting a miscarriage or premature birth and the doctor has some amount of time to begin doing interventions to, to try to change the course of the pregnancy. Now, in this case, the beauty of what we have is that the, the doctor can do their interventions, whatever they may be, then tell the mother to come back in a month and get a new prediction. and hopefully if the doctor is actually you know what they're doing is causing the improvement they'll be able to see the delivery date actually move closer to 40 weeks which is what they want to see so this kind of gives the doctor a window into the pregnancy which currently or previously it's been a black box you're well this mother's at risk and then we'll just do everything we can to and hope things turn out the you know as well as they can at the end and no way of knowing if the actual interventions are actually changing anything.

31:00Well, now that's completely changed. Now they can see if they got a problem and do some things and then go back and get another delivery date. And if it's better, then great. And if it's not, try something different. In fact, another benefit of this is even if you can't do anything about it, you keep trying things, keep going back, same delivery date. It's just not good. What else the benefit gives you is the preparedness. you can be prepared to know that you're going to get a delivery date of, you know, 35 weeks, which is premature. And you can make sure that if that mother lives in an obstetric desert, maybe she lives 150 miles away from the closest NICU level hospital, you can make sure that that woman is near that hospital around that time.

31:45And so that those hours are tremendously important for the outcomes of those premature babies. So just being able to prepare is just enormous leap forward too. So there's, there's a lot of, I mean, there's a lot of game changing things to this technology. And so that, so anyhow, but back to my, back to my main story here, I guess. So I was working on this for a year because I guess we want to talk about the, you know, the entrepreneur journey, I guess on this too, because I think people need to hear this because it's actually important. So I worked on this for a year straight and I was failing miserably.

32:16It was not working at all. And one night I set off a new experiment, you know, I went to bed. It was one in the morning and I realized that the code that I just written was, was not going to work at all. And, um, and I, I, oh man, I, I'm empty tired to deal with this. So I just let it run the next morning and the next morning it was working. And so everything that I thought could work over a year failed miserably. And the one thing I was certain wouldn't work is what worked. And, uh, that's all, that's a lot of humble pie, you know? And I, I think, I think, you know, you need to realize you, you may not have all the answers and there may be answers that you think are wrong, but actually are the answer.

32:57So keeping an open mind as to what possible answers are is, is also an important aspect of this. And just being, you know, just keep persistence, just keep trying, keep trying. I mean, you know, Thomas Edison, you know, created 6 ,000 attempts at a light bulb and, and he was asked, you know, one day about all this failures and creating light bulbs is that I didn't fail 6 ,000 times. I found 6 ,000 ways not to create a light bulb until I found one that did. And I guess, because I was going to keep going. I was willing to go as long as it took to make this happen. And luckily, I got lucky after a year by screwing up, basically.

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33:35Well, who is it that said the more I practice, the luckier I get? Yeah, yeah, exactly. I mean, sometimes you just have to be smart enough to realize that you're just fundamentally on a wrong track and maybe just kind of maybe pivot. But sometimes you just, if you know, in your heart, you know there's a solution here and it can be done. Sometimes you just got to keep going. You just got to try harder than other people. Yeah, it's a reasonable thesis that on a long enough time horizon, you're going to find the correlation of these images to these outcomes. That's a reasonable hypothesis that then over a long enough time horizon, you plus AI is going to work that out.

34:14I've got so many questions on this. first thing I want to say is is is thank you for sharing about your family I know that's not that's that's not a given it's not an easy thing to do but it's it's it's it's wonderful context for the the fire that was lit within you that you did just commit to this and I think that's incredibly useful context so I appreciate I genuinely appreciate you sharing that it's also quite um yeah it's always quite real for me my mom I'm an only child and not through want of trying as my parents would say my mom had multiple multiple multiple miscarriages um and so it's something that I was always you know you know very aware of and and you know affected our family and I've got a one-year-old and so all of the birth and the pregnancy is always so fresh in my mind and all that emotion.

35:07And so I know and I understand and I can sympathize, not empathize with that fire being lit within you to solve a problem. So I genuinely appreciate you sharing that. I have so many questions on this. Oh, yeah, go for it. With the tech and the process and the medical stuff. How about I let you ask? Because usually people have a million questions at this point. So yeah, feel free to ask away because uh okay uh i think that'd be useful when you reverse engineer this what is ai looking at measuring and where where is it what data points sure is the correlation is the answer between these images and the date yeah what's the correlation there what what is the the algorithm i guess yeah a lot of doctors ask that question because you know especially since a lot of them said we've been looking at these images for decades.

36:05Well, this is the thing. This is what I'm thinking, yeah. Yeah, so yeah, that's like their immediate question now because now I've proven it does work. So now they've got to go to how does it work because saying it doesn't work doesn't work anymore, right? So basically, the AM has made a lot of discoveries. Currently, or previously, there was really only one aspect of an ultrasound image that would be useful for predicting premature birth, and that was the cervical length. And a short cervix, you know, has a decent probability of going to a premature birth. But that only applies to a small proportion of women.

36:38So that's just one anatomy, and that's all they really had that they could quantify in any way. I gave the AI all of the images that the doctors take, everything from the baby's feet to the ovaries to just, I didn't know where half of these things were. And sometimes it's anywhere from 20 to 100 images of different things that the doctors take pictures of. I didn't know what any of it was, so I gave the AI all of it. basically, and you have to sort it out and figure out what matters and then be able to predict a delivery date from this. And so I, you know, I let, after training on millions upon millions of images, the AI actually found eight anatomical areas that can predict, you know, delivery dates instead of just the one.

37:18I mean, well, actually the cervical length doesn't actually predict the delivery date even, it's just good at predicting premature births, which is a little, you know, get a little bit of a date, I guess, in that concept. But anyhow, so the, what it discovered was a lot of anatomy. The ovaries, for example, is shocking. No one would think that would be predictive, but it appears to be decent at predicting a premature birth. I'm sorry, miscarriages. And then there's the placenta, the uterus, the umbilical artery, the lower urine segment, the cervix. And then there's a couple of a baby's anatomy.

37:58It's almost entirely the mother's anatomy, except in a couple of rare circumstances. But because right now people look at the baby to get an estimated delivery date to identify how old it is. But if you want to make this prediction of when the baby's actually going to come out, it's the mother's anatomy that's actually by far more critical. But there's a couple of anatomies in the baby that are predictive, but they need a lot more research. But it appears the baby's heart, the heart rate measurement appears to be predictive of a future situation where the doctor may need to induce due to high blood pressure uh this needs further i mean a lot of this needs a lot more research to really make definitive statements about but the the as found some powerful correlations and i and i think those correlations warrant further research for sure so don't uh don't assume like this is all settled uh science this is extremely early days stuff no no sure and but but that's an interesting point isn't it that this being this being a frontier this being an area where we're learning new information and it's and it's nice obviously as a clinician myself to hear anyone uh caveat their claims by saying look this is this is an area where more evidence is needed it's always a it's always a very sort of exhale moment for any clinician to hear that as someone that's not trying to over claim and I think that that's probably my next question actually so um a complex of questions here sort of how accurate is it what's your confidence level does is is there a way of you doing this that can increase your confidence level with longitudinal measurements and of the same patient talk to me about confidence level and accuracy yeah so we did um we eventually when i when i went when i went back to the doctors and told them that I actually was able to predict the delivery date.

39:49I thought they were going to be like, yes, all right, this is great. This is going to change everything. No, that's actually not what they said. What they said was, you must have done something wrong because again, we told you we could look at these images and if it were possible, we'd be doing it. So we don't know what you did wrong, but you've done something wrong here. So I had to come up, because Carl Sagan said, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. And so I basically hooked up with Evers Kentucky. I found some researchers there who were much more open-minded about the possibility.

40:21You know, Kentucky has a significant problem with premature births. And they were a little more open-minded to try to find solutions, even if they seemed a little more radical than what you might ordinately go along. And so, yeah, so basically we began a study with them. We got a large volume of data from them because they are a large hospital system there. And they held back 20 % of the answers of when babies were delivered. And then I trained an updated model on using this much larger data set. And then we managed predictions on the ones they held back. And then we did that over and over again for four iterations of the AI because AI was advancing in general.

41:03I was incorporating the latest advances in AI in general. And then, of course, I was learning things, too, on this specific problem, how to improve accuracy. And so we did this over and over again for four versions. And then we eventually published the pair study in the journal Maternal Fetal Medicine and Neonatology, I believe it is. I'm trying to think of the exact name. It's kind of a long name. So it's called the Black Journal in this field. But anyhow, so the pair study proves that you can, in fact, do this. And we got an R squared of 0.92 for predicting days until delivery. So it's extremely good.

41:33And for premature births or births previous to 37 weeks, including miscarriages, we got an R-squared of 0.72, which is shocking. That's on an independent study-by-study basis, not longitudinally. But I think there's an even more fundamentally important thing here that surprises people is there's a concept of an iatrogenic delivery where the doctor has to induce early to save the life of a mother. For example, she might get life-threatening high blood pressure and the baby's got to come out. Even if that's 32 weeks, it's got to happen or they'll both die. And so our squared on predicting when a doctor is going to have to intervene to save the life of the mother is 0.74, believe it or not.

42:15And so that implies a much bigger thing, I think, than just predicting delivery dates of babies. because now what that's saying is that it's possible for an AI to predict a future health condition of the mother and approximately when it's going to happen because it would have to predict that high blood pressure. You'd have to predict when that high blood pressure is going to happen and when it's become life-threatening in order to predict that delivery date because that's when the doctor is doing the deliveries based on that event. And so basically what that shows is that it's now possible to predict future medical events in general, not just delivery dates.

42:49And so this technology actually has a much bigger, you know, possibility of use than just delivery days. You know, we're thinking it could predict, you know, ovarian cancer and all kinds of things. We have to, you know, obviously do the research to prove all what it can and cannot do. But it does, you know, reveal the possibility that, you know, it can do much more and predict, you know, when a health event is going to happen. So it's I think the game has kind of gotten a lot bigger here very recently. but it's just going to take a lot of research and a lot of input from a lot of clinicians to help really figure out how can this be used, how accurate is it, what do we do differently now?

43:29And that's where we're trying to find, you know, this whole new world has been opened up in medicine now, in predictive medicine, you know, and I think there's enormous opportunities but we're just in the very earliest days of this. With a lot of the media stuff that we create with our newsletter, Health Set Pigeon, and and you know this podcast and a lot of different places that that we turn up in the health tech space we talk about women's health a lot very intentionally because of what you'll be i imagine very well aware of a clear data gap and lack thereof of data in women's health more broadly how easy was it for you to train this algorithm and find the data and on what what what data was this trained on how much data was this trained on and particularly like the demographics as well because this is also interesting and relevant that I can imagine knowing a little bit about the statistics of um uh you know early early death and neonatal death and that kind of thing that that you know certain demographics are affected more than others as well and that those happen to be the demographics that we often struggle to get data on and things like that so what was the journey like of you discovering this and going through that to acquire the data and to train the algorithm and the principles that you're i guess operating this company within that I imagine to solve this problem very broadly and particularly to those that need it most?

45:00Oh, yeah, these are great questions. So for the first question on obtaining medical data is really hard, really, really, really hard. It's a significant moat for tech companies to just get it. I can't even express that's how many medical startups go to die in the try to get data phase. It's just, I mean, every hospital system, has some startup founder like, can I get some cancer MRIs? They don't have the time or the money to try to get you your data set so you can go try and see if you can do something with it. And so you've got to have a champion within that institution who's got a lot of pull in the institution.

45:43And there's got to be a convincing case that if this does pan out, that there's a huge benefit and this is going to be a significant discovery that will get our university or system recognition for it. So you've got to sell them on the upside to them. I was going to say, is that the upside that you sell them on? Is that the value proposition that you sell them on, like recognition and research and name out there? Or do you have to explore any financial stuff there? Well, it depends on what the kind of institution is. If you're after a for-profit institution, like University of Kentucky is a big research institution funded by the state.

46:19So I mean, their, their goal is to, to advance research and, and, and, and do, do all that kind of stuff. So that, I think that was more important to them because they're not a for, necessarily a for-profit, you know, system. Of course, if you're going to some other hospital chain that is a for-profit system, they're, they're not going to care about the research. Like how, you know, what, you know, what, how much, how much equity are you giving us? Cause I had many, many hospital systems just wanted to, I had one, wanted half, half the company just to give me data. I kid you not. So, uh, it's, so that, that's where you're, I mean, you're, don't even be surprised if, if they ask for at least a third.

46:53Um, so you even just, just give you data just to try and you've already given away a third of your company. Um, and that's if you, you need to get them to agree to that. Like that, like most of them won't even talk to you. Like even getting your foot in the door is, is, is an impossible challenge. So yeah, so this, that's, that, that's a big deal on the, um, on the second thing is you were kind of going into the concept of bias and populations. And so, for example, black women are much more likely to have a premature birth, you know, than, say, Asian woman or Caucasian woman. And one of the beauties of the AI that I created is since only ultrasound images are going into it, I'm not, the AI doesn't know the patient's race or anything about the patient, all that could bias it in making this decision.

47:37All it has is what it can actually see, just facts, just the facts of what's in the image. And so the AI is actually unbiased completely because it doesn't know what the race of the person in this ultrasound image is. It doesn't know any history about them that might bias a human doctor as to what to conclude. And there's a lot of research that's done on how medical decisions are biased based on the doctors knowing things about the patient that may not necessarily be, you know, or territorially related to the, whatever they're, they're trying to evaluate. And so, yeah, our, our, our representative of the population where that data was collected essentially in that, in that case, it was actually trained on, on at risk women mostly because Evers Kentucky has, you know, they, they take a lot of the, the worst cases, you know, the higher risk women, a lot of the poor women, women who, you know, are of substance abuse issues, mental health issues.

48:36They, they, they take a lot of these cases more so than the average hospital. So this, this AI was actually trained on, on, on a much higher risk population that you'd probably not see elsewhere. And so, so it, so substantially was built on, on women who typically might be biased against. I mean, that's a biased against is not, not the right word, but unintentional bias can creep in, I guess, you know, I don't think anyone's intentionally doing It's just, it's just, that's just, I guess, human nature unintentionally doing it. But anyhow, so yeah, so the fact that we're doing only images eliminates so many ways that bias can creep in, both intentionally, unintentionally, whatever the case may be.

49:19I mean one example might be intentional is you know since a black woman is more likely to have a premature birth then a doctor might in their mind give her a higher probability of that just because she is likely have a higher probability of it but that but in his mind that in her mind that could be a higher probably than what's reality because you know that so it's so it's kind of like that they're kind of using their best judgment you know given you have a historical context as to what's going on but But sometimes that's fallible, I guess, obviously, because we're all humans and we can't make perfect judgment calls every time.

49:52Of course. So that's what an AI is for, is to give you a consistent prediction for every woman, no matter what. No matter how rich or how poor you are, whether you're black or white or whatever, the AI is going to give you an exact, the same prediction, no matter what, without any bias towards your situation, maybe. So that's a good thing, I think. It is. so the other thing that i want to talk about now actually is this the the contention between uh you and this discovery with the clinical world i think that's fascinating because i as a clinician at heart you know as trained as worked for five years you know five years medical school five years as a doctor it's interesting because when um when when someone and I'm going to be I'm going to be frank because why not when someone that isn't isn't medical comes to us and says hey I've discovered this thing that you didn't know it's about a field that you have been doing your entire life and this is a brand new discovery you didn't even think to look here but guess what I've come and found that is so confronting that even when you said it in this podcast I'm like my back is up being like okay what's the evidence here like I'm going to try and find you out here.

51:11It's so funny because even me as a tech evangelist and so open to new ideas and so understanding that there's data that exists that we don't even measure right now. Even for someone like me, I've now got my haunches up and I'm like, right, let's really interrogate you. So I can completely understand and appreciate that the clinical world really struggles with that. There's also, you know, there's also like hardened institutions like built around, you know, this way of thinking being the right way. There's, you know, medical practices that are built around this being the right way that you, you know, potentially threaten for the overall good of the patient.

51:55But what I do also want to acknowledge here is I think because of AI, and this is a perfect highlight and example of it. and I've talked to multiple companies recently, Neco Health being one of them recently, that I think that one thing that AI is enabling us to do is to create new sources of data that we can find correlations in. And I think as the clinical world, we have to accept that there are things that previously we just weren't able to measure that have now become measurable and therefore we can start plotting differences and finding correlations in those things and and that is what we may previously have attributed to intuition or something doesn't feel right or i think it's this because i've been doing this for 40 years i can't put my finger on it but this one is this because of this i think those kind of imperceptible intuitive things are slowly being turned into actual data sources by various companies and i'd almost put this in that category of i think as the clinical world we have to be open to this and it has to undergo the the rigorous evidence and and what you're describing in order to prove whether it's right or wrong but to assume that we know everything about medicine as it stands currently is foolish to assume that we're not going to discover new biomarkers is foolish to assume that we're not going to see more in imagery with ai than we do with the human eye is foolish that is thought that like i i'm happy staking my name to those things as definitely foolish therefore with those things in mind we have to keep an open mind to what is the discoverable however i can also appreciate that it's very threatening it's very confronting for for people with established practices that that have been researching and doing this stuff for decades it's threatening and so i'm interested in how you how you build that relationship and trust with the clinical world and how you interface with the clinical world?

54:18And what has been your experience of butting up to the clinical world with quite confronting information as a non-medic, frankly? Yeah. Actually, no, I wouldn't think it was confrontational. I mean, in the early days, I felt it was because I didn't understand a lot about medicine and I felt confrontational, but it wasn't. What it was, was doctors are on the hook for the actions they perform and then the outcomes that come of those actions. Those lives are in their hands and they need to do things that are only based on solid evidence and not intuition and not, oh, you know, some guy in his basement came up with this idea and why don't I just try it on my patients, right?

55:04No, I mean, I've been challenged really heavily over the years by clinicians and that needed to happen. I needed to be challenged every possible way imaginable because this is this you know human lives are at stake here and so we we absolutely have to get it right there's no room for error and so i greatly appreciate all the doctors that over the years um who who challenged every tiny little last detail because every little last tiny detail needed to be challenged and they're still challenging things and because things still need to be challenged um you know how how well does this work at you know, six weeks, you know, how well does it work on, on predicting this, this, you know, blood, you know, high, you know, blood pressure situation?

55:50What, what, what, what is the underlying mechanism so we can understand how to then develop treatments for it? You know, a million questions and, and we need more evidence about this and we need to dig in deeper into this and we need to, and they're, they're not, they're not trying to tell me my stuff doesn't work or, or that they're not happy that it worked or that, that, you know, that, that they've been doing things differently all these years because they've been operating with the best scientific information they had that, that had the evidence to back it up. And so, so, so they want, I think they want, I mean, I'm certain they all want me to succeed with this.

56:22They just, they just need me to create the evidence and establish the evidence so that they can use this on their patients where lives are at stake and I can fully appreciate it. And I, and I, and we're on the same team. Uh, I just, I just want to clarify that is I don't consider myself at odds with, with clinicians or anyone in the medical community, we're on the same team. And I think we need to challenge each other because I challenge them to look at this, look at everything in a new way. I challenge them and I think they appreciate being challenged. And then in return, they challenged me on, well, now we need evidence, we need hard evidence and we need to do this, look at this very, very thoroughly before we begin using this on humans.

57:01And I think that that back and forth is what's necessary to really advance medicine um that's great to hear and thank you for sharing that so that brings us nicely onto um you were kind enough to email ahead to actually say that we could now talk about this that the the you have de novo fda for this so let's be really specific here around like what it is, what are the claims that you can now make, and what does this now mean for going forwards? What does the plan look like from here for commercialization and what you hope to achieve? I think in the short term, let's zoom in on that bit. But first of all, let's talk about the FDA.

57:49Sure, yeah. And just to clarify too, we are also in South America. We did get an Anvisa approval a long time, maybe a year and a half ago. So we are improved in other countries who allow us to use this in different scopes than the United States does. So how you can use this depends on which country you're in. So I can be the US specific, but the parameters in Brazil are much wider than the parameters in the United States, just to be clear. So when I talk about what it can do, I may not necessarily mean the United States. I'm trying to do this globally, not US century. Anyhow, but yeah, so the FDA de novo.

58:25Wow. So that was incredibly difficult to make. Famously easy process. Yes. Well, I mean, most people don't understand all the distinctions between the different processes the FDA has. One is a 510K, which is you basically, there's another device similar to yours on the market. And you're going to show some evidence that your device is equivalent to this already existing device. and it's i mean it's i wouldn't say it's an easy process but it's probably but it's hey they did something before i do something similar can you approve me and you just have enough proof that yours is similar enough to theirs more more or less uh and to simplify it all now and they grant thousands of those probably four thousand a year of those now de novo a de novo is a technology that there is nothing similar ever to it and you need to create a whole new device category category devices, right?

59:15And they grant about 40 of those a year. Those are extremely hard to get because you got to prove everything from the ground up, the safety and effectiveness. What are the ways the device could be misused? How could the results be misunderstood by a doctor? If the results are misunderstood by a doctor, what could happen to the patient? How do we label this properly so the doctors understand how to use it properly? It's just everything. And so a lot of large companies have struggle with a de novo approval because it's just such a monumental endeavor and for a tiny little startup some guy in his basement getting one is just uh it blows people's minds like disadvantage they probably call that yeah yeah i mean but it's uh but you you have no other choice right so anyhow so we defined a new so we had a new product category in our category code and i maybe it's it's possible people the fda have a small sense of humor here, but they gave us the code of a S H E for this device.

1:00:17And generally, uh, these, these product codes are, they appear to be just random, three let random letters like X G Q or something. And, uh, I, so I, and the fact that this was S H E for a, for a, you know, delivery device, I, I imagine, I can't imagine that was random. And I, I thought, I thought maybe they were just having a little fun there at the SDA. There's nothing wrong with it. It's a good code. I love it. Cause you know, there's a little bit of marketing, uh, you know, you can just say we got the code and it's, you know, she, right. But, uh, so yeah, so getting the, the de novo, but now that we have the de novo, we are able to now expand upon the use.

1:00:47And let me, let me describe the exact parameters of the use in the United States that they've approved because that, that's very clear. Um, basically it's, it's for a high risk population that doesn't have prenatal care. So it's, uh, women who have not seen a doctor, you know, before 14 weeks at all, She may not have any idea how far along she is. So she's showing up to the doctors at 14 weeks or later, not knowing how far along she is. And the doctor, the best way they can tell is just by doing some measurements on the baby. But those measurements are pretty inaccurate. And it's quite common that if someone doesn't have prenatal care, then they may have substance abuse issues, malnutrition.

1:01:27They're likely to be quite poor. And the baby's measures be off because they're typically smaller than the average. And so that's kind of an inaccurate way to date the pregnancy. And so the FDA agreed that, yeah, for this population, this device would be effective and useful for them because it's better than what the doctors have now for that. And so basically the limitations are you have to be greater than 18 years old. you have to be at least 14 weeks long and not know how far along you are in the pregnancy or just not very confident in that number. It's not for anyone with fetal anomalies. There might be some other minor, but that's the major indications for use that actually are critical to follow.

1:02:18But obviously, we have our device details, indications for use when people we're going to use it. But, you know, so, but we're now we can file 510 Ks to then convince the FDA that, okay, now, now let's try to prove that it's, it's safe for as early as six weeks now. And so we gotta, we gotta come up with that evidence, submit it to them, file for that, and just, you know, do all the process again, should be a little easier. And even though the FDA process was extremely painful, I just want to say that, I mean, these people are dedicated. The people at the FDA are very dedicated to making sure that what's released to the market is safe and effective.

1:02:57I'm sure at times, because I'm not a startup founder, I want to move faster. And I'm sure at times I thought, well, is this really necessary? Is this really necessary? But it may be. It may not have moved as fast as I liked, but it's their job to make sure that they're releasing safe and effective devices to the market. And I think they're doing their job well i i think they they are dedicated people who who care deeply that that that happens so also thanks for saying that robert so i can't remember whether we're recording or not when i said this to you at the beginning but the the this is this is part of my thesis here like increasing the amount of empathy we have for each other in this ecosystem because the more we understand each other the faster information can actually flow the better the information flow will be and therefore the better place will end up in in health tech i think this is that is a perfect example of it that yes you're on opposite sides of the table there but you you are ultimately both on the same team let's get a safe device out to patients that does what it says it does that's ultimately the goal that you both have one of you is pushing the other one is doing the checks and balances but i think it's a really nice thing you just said i think the empathy for that has hasn't gone past me i think that's a really important thing to to to actually have and and to communicate i yeah it's the same as the doctors right it's the same as doctors they challenged me to prove everything that i was saying because human lives are at stake and so like the doctors challenged me on the we need evidence of this we need evidence of this we need evidence of this they have to be basically in that role too but as the government's role of that you know and so it was it was the same back and forth but now having gone through that that that rigorous scrutiny um i think you know i feel much better about what what i've released to the public now because it has gone through so much so much scrutiny i can feel better about it myself too so so you know that's i think it's i think in all it's a good thing because it's all that matters is the at the end of the day it's the patient right so yeah do you take time to reflect on it you know when something like that happens do you take time to think about what you've done from those early days and actually now there's there's there's people experiencing this that wouldn't have otherwise there's there's there's impact been made oh yeah south america we've been in use for quite a while.

1:05:13So in real world clinical use in quite a while, I mean, we just got approved by the FDA recently. So we haven't had any real clinical use in the United States yet, obviously, but, but in South America we have, and I've got, uh, some amazing testimonials from doctors who just swear by this. And, you know, some of the stories they, they, I have are just a mind blowing and, and it just, you just want to keep, uh, doing more and fighting harder and, you know, seeing how you can expand this to help even more people because it's just so encouraging that, that there's real lives who are being dramatically, you know, dramatic, like, like you're saving the lives of their babies.

1:05:48And, uh, you know, so it's like, it's, it's just so, it's just so powerful and it's really so motivating. And, uh, and, you know, I never really, uh, until recently I didn't have that motivation cause it really wasn't being in use. I was just hoping one day that would, I would have that motivation. But now that I do, it's, it's just extremely, extremely, I can't, I can't stop now. There's no stopping now, no matter what. Well, this is what's exciting, right? So you've got now a commercial set of challenges in the US to make impact and the level of impact that you want. You've also got R &D challenges, because as we said, you're at the frontier now of a lot of potential new discovery.

1:06:27how do you think about the growth of the company now in terms of like capitalization of the company in order to in order to actually give you the fuel and the resource to attack these different things like how are you how are you thinking of balancing you know revenue versus actually raise and put it into r &d and give you more chance over here like there's there's there's lots of different like priorities you could have here in terms of how you go forward so i'm interested in in how you think about this now? Well, yeah, now that we have the de novo, I mean, money was a struggle to come by before we had approval.

1:07:02I raised a total of$8 million. By the way, I'm curious how I raised money for USA. Basically, safe notes from a credit investor, basically. But safe notes. So money was kind of just trickling in. I had to make it work with that. So obviously$8 million is not a lot of money to do it. That's incredibly impressive. To do it de novo and actually have all the patents that we have and all that. But yeah, so now we got the de novo and it works and everyone's like, oh, wow, this is real. Now we can sell it to the United States. And then FDA approval is more or less approval in much of the world too, because a lot of countries just accept FDA approval as is to some degree.

1:07:44And so now money's not so hard to come by now. And we're beginning to work on, we're doing a bridge round right now, which is pretty, you know, our current investors are, are, you know, kicking in more cause you know, they're, they're pretty pumped right now, as you can imagine. So anyhow, but we were working on our series a round too as we do that. And we're getting a lot of interest from the OEMs, the you know, the companies that make these ultrasound machines, you know, they're, they're interested in embedding this directly into the machine. So instead of it going to the cloud for prediction, the doctor can have it directly on the machine.

1:08:16Of course, there's other the insurance companies are kind of really excited about this because they're the ones on the hook for the 30 billion dollars a year in NICU costs and so of course it'd be cheaper for them to pay for every woman to have this if it can prevent a certain percentage of the cost you know 30 billion dollars even a small percentage of that is an enormous fortune right and so they're on the hook for the money and of course mothers um you know want want to just know this date for to relieve their anxiety so they know everything's okay and also you know if there is a problem that it's taken care of.

1:08:46And also for vanity, sometime of, well, should my husband go on a business trip around this time or not? Or there's that angle too, which is worth something too. So some patients are worth paying money just to get this knowledge even before it's covered. So there's a lot of angles for generating revenue here. But I just want to clarify though, that my goal from day one has to make sure that this is available to every woman on earth, regardless of their ability to pay. So if someone in Zambia or pick a country can't afford to pay for it, then that's fine. It's free for them. And that will be worldwide.

1:09:25So I think that's the promise of AI that we've been selling the world for the last 30 years is that eventually this will be so cheap and everyone will be able to have everything they need. And so, well, now it's time to deliver on that promise, right? So all the AI people who've been making predictions over the last few decades have always promised this. And so it's time to start delivering on that promise that AI is here to create. And I'm happy to lead the way on starting that, delivering on what we promised forever here. Amazing. Is there a particular country or particular area or region that you're excited about?

1:10:01It depends on what the angle is, I suppose. I mean, I'm really excited about the countries that really have no maternal care at all. Because ultrasounds are getting really cheap. The machines themselves are getting really cheap. And there's a lot of nonprofits around the world. There's a lot of point of care ultrasounds getting. Yes. Canthels. Semiconductor stuff. Yeah. They're getting very powerful and small and cheap. So sending a box of them to a poor country, a poor village is actually very realistic now. So now we need the, but they don't have a, they don't have an obstetrician in their village to actually read these, these images.

1:10:35Right. So, so what I'm really excited about is getting AI into these handheld devices in these remote villages so that these women can actually have a high level of care. Yes. That would have been completely impossible, you know, until now. So I think that's also the promise of AI is getting knowledge to places where knowledgeable humans, you know, knowledgeable humans aren't scalable. Right. but AI, you can make copies endlessly of that. And so I'm really excited about how we can deliver healthcare to women who really don't have it at all or very little of it and start delivering really powerful capabilities that will save their lives who would have not had any chance before.

1:11:17So I'm excited about that. Amazing. Are you doing anything in the UK yet? uh we're we're working we're we're this all the uh all the developed countries are a little bit slower process because uh i mean fda is great but uh obviously the but uh the you know japan and you know canada they don't just you know oh the fda proved okay we're good i mean all these all these developed world head countries have their own ideas of what's safe and effective and you know they have their own standards so that's we're trying we're trying to get into the developed world as quickly as possible too but it's it's a lot faster to get into the the underdeveloped countries because they're generally more accepting of FDA approval.

1:11:55Okay, yeah, you're good. Go with it. Let's go. You're welcome here. So, I mean, we're trying to move quickly to cover as many people as possible. The underdeveloped countries are much faster moving. And since this is a cloud based system, you can scale pretty rapidly. But with the developed world, there's a lot of regulatory work that still needs to be done because they all have their own ideas on what's safe and effective. We just got to do their processes now. But having FDA approval helps dramatically because we've got a big, solid amount of evidence that we've already created that we can just repackage into whatever they need.

1:12:30So we're moving as fast as we can, but it's just a matter of now we got to raise a lot of money to hire more people to do the work. And so right now, scaling up is our biggest problem. Everyone's calling us. Everyone wants to do this. Everyone wants to use this. And we're just like this little startup now trying to, you know, expand explosively. And that's by far our biggest, our biggest problem right now is it's, it's hard to scale up a medical type company explosively. It's, you know, so that's, that's where we're struggling right now is with the explosive growth. I mean, it's a classy problem to have, but it is still a problem.

1:13:03It is. It's a, it's a classy problem to feel that you have as well. The, the, the whole, I don't even like the term, but, but the whole, you know, the blitz scaling term that got thrown around, you know, a fair few years ago, you know, it's all, it's, it's, it's never felt comfortable in healthcare just because of everything we've talked about in this podcast. And so, yeah, it's, despite there's been a few people that have tried, there's been a couple of companies that have certainly tried definitely in the UK that famously, and actually a little bit in the US that famously, relatively recently, that didn't end so well.

1:13:44I won't mention any names of you, Doug. But no, it's nice to know that you have those principles as well. And Robert, honestly, it's been an absolute pleasure. Thank you so much for telling that story and what a story it is. I wish you all the best. I hope that all the R &D that you're doing proves that the evidence is there for more and more and more of this. I remain very open-minded that there is so much that we currently don't know and don't see that I hope technology will prove to be more good than it is bad. And I think certainly in healthcare, there's plenty of spaces like this where we can learn a great deal, pick up far more biomarkers and start getting so much better at preventative healthcare and helping mothers through their pregnancy journey and helping those neonates get the best care that they need.

1:14:47For people that want to learn more, Robert, what's the best place for them to go in order to do so? and by the way just to respond to what you said i really appreciate you helping me get the get the message out that this is now possible and and the all the potential here and all that that was i mean it's you got to make this people aware that this uh is possible and then and i would like any anyone that's interested in doing research or working with me or helping refine all this uh you know please please reach out to me um and also you can if you want to find out more i mean i can be reached at bob at ultrasound.ai if you want to reach out to me personally to do a collaboration or research or you know you want to know more feel free i'm i'm a founder that's very passionate about this so i'm happy to talk to pretty much anyone um but if you want to just read more about us in general of course you can you know look up our papers online like the pair study from yours kentucky but just our website is probably a good starting point because that's a good source of links to all this other stuff and that's just ultrasound.ai you know www.ultrasound.ai so i We got an amazing URL, obviously, here.

1:15:49I was going to say, what a fantastic domain that is, obviously. I haven't even talked about how you acquired that, but maybe that's a different podcast. Yeah, possibly. It's a good story. Absolute pleasure. Thanks so much for joining me. Thank you. I really appreciate it. You have a great day.

From the publisher

In this episode, James is joined by Robert Bunn, Founder and President of Ultrasound AI, who shares an extraordinary story - from multiple failed startups and personal tragedy to building an AI that can predict actual delivery dates from standard ultrasound images. With a De Novo FDA clearance now in hand, Robert explains how the technology works, what the AI discovered that clinicians couldn't see, and why he's committed to making it available to every woman on earth regardless of ability to pay.


Connect with Robert: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robertbunn/

Learn more about Ultrasound AI: https://www.ultrasound.ai

Apply to be a guest: www.thehealthtechpodcast.com

Subscribe to Healthtech Pigeon : www.healthtechpigeon.com

Get in touch with James: www.jamessomauroo.com

This podcast was brought to you by SomX.

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