In short
Podcast Episode Notes: The Information's TITV
Episode Title
OpenAI’s GitHub Alternative, OpenClaw Craze in China, and the AI Chip War
Hosts
- Akash Pasricha (TITV Host)
- Aaron Holmes (Reporter)
- James Everingham (CEO of Guild.ai)
- Sriram Viswanathan (Founding Managing Partner at Celesta Capital)
- Juro Osawa (Reporter)
- Jing Yang (Asia Bureau Chief)
Date
March 4, 2023
Overview
This episode discusses
- OpenAI's development of a GitHub competitor.
- The impact of OpenClaw in China and the resulting developer frenzy.
- Current dynamics and challenges in the AI chip sector.
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Key Discussions
- OpenAI's GitHub Alternative
- Overview: OpenAI is reportedly building a tool to rival GitHub, frustrated by recent outages on GitHub.
- Key Features:
- Potential internal use for OpenAI's code management.
- Discussions about whether it will be sold to external developers.
- Differentiation: Combining OpenAI's Codex coding agent with the platform to enhance automation in code generation.
- Market Implications:
- Competing directly with GitHub, which has a significant developer community.
- OpenAI’s trust factor: Convincing companies to upload sensitive code to their platform.
- OpenClaw Craze in China
- Key Insights:
- Developers in China are rapidly adopting OpenClaw technology, driven by a fear of missing out (FOMO).
- Examples of innovation include:
- Creation of AI agents like social networks.
- Applications for managing social media accounts through AI.
- Market Reactivity: Tech founders feel pressured to innovate quickly as competition heightens.
- The AI Chip War
- Current Landscape:
- Major tech companies are diversifying away from NVIDIA by forming partnerships and using alternative chip solutions.
- Investments and Opportunities:
- Companies like Meta and OpenAI are exploring new chip technologies.
- Discussion of the "deep tech" movement, focusing on semiconductors and hardware rather than just software.
- Challenges:
- Concerns about monopolistic practices in the chip industry.
- The emergence of chip startups amidst giants like NVIDIA.
Expert Opinions
- James Everingham: Emphasized the evolving nature of software development and the potential for new systems to manage complex software solutions.
- Sriram Viswanathan: Discussed the shift in investment focus towards deep tech due to the constraints in the innovation landscape moving from software to hardware.
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Articles Discussed
- [OpenAI’s Next AI Model Will Extreme Reasoning](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/openais-next-ai-model-will-extreme-reasoning)
- [OpenAI Developing Alternative to Microsoft’s GitHub](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-developing-alternative-microsofts-github)
- [OpenClaw Rips China's Tech Startup Landscape](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openclaw-rips-chinas-tech-startup-landscape)
Key Takeaways
- OpenAI's Strategy: Aimed at building an in-house alternative to GitHub, highlighting a growing trend of tech companies creating proprietary solutions to avoid reliance on third-party platforms.
- Developer Landscape in China: The OpenClaw phenomenon showcases a rapidly evolving tech ecosystem, driven by innovation and competitive urgency.
- AI Chip Sector Dynamics: Companies are increasingly seeking alternatives to NVIDIA, indicating a significant shift in the semiconductor industry's landscape that emphasizes diversification and innovation in hardware solutions.
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Conclusion The episode provides a deep dive into the intersection of AI development, competitive dynamics in the tech industry, and the evolving landscape of chip technology. As these trends unfold, they will reshape how tech companies operate and innovate in the coming years.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOOpenAI's GitHub Rival
0:46 to 1:34
Discussion about OpenAI building a tool to rival GitHub and its implications.
“Be sure to check out that newsletter for more details.”
Understanding GitHub and OpenAI's Strategy
1:35 to 3:40
Insights on OpenAI's motivations and the features they are considering.
“OpenAI is building a tool that would rival GitHub, according to an exclusive report from The Information.”
AI's Role in Software Development
3:41 to 7:11
Exploration of how AI is changing software development and GitHub's competitive landscape.
“And Aaron, do we know anything about how they plan to differentiate themselves against a giant like GitHub?”
OpenAI's Trust Challenge
7:12 to 12:40
Discussion on the challenges OpenAI faces in gaining trust from developers.
“Yeah, I think there's been a lot of, you know, discussion in the developer community about how workflows need to change now that AI is playing a bigger role in creating and editing code.”
OpenClaw Craze in China
12:41 to 14:02
Examination of the OpenClaw phenomenon and its impact on developers in China.
“OpenClaw has caused quite the stir across Silicon Valley over the past few months.”
OpenClaw and AI Agent Innovations
14:02 to 15:10
Discover how OpenClaw is empowering entrepreneurs and AI agents in China.
“and he was really inspired by Motebook, which is like a social network for AI agents that came out of OpenClaw.”
The Tinder for AI Agents Concept
15:10 to 16:13
Explore the unique idea of AI agents facilitating human relationships.
“You know, your competitors will be launching something if you don't do it right now.”
China's Open Source AI Models
16:20 to 18:05
Learn about the rapid advancements in China's open source AI landscape.
“So China's tech giants have also made a lot of great strides in open source AI models from Alibaba to Biden.”
The Chip Race and Semiconductor Landscape
18:05 to 21:15
Understand the current dynamics in the semiconductor market and the shift from NVIDIA.
“The chip race has heated up lately, with big tech companies signing major deals with Amazon and Google to use their AI chips, diversifying away from NVIDIA.”
Emerging Trends in AI Chip Deals
21:15 to 23:34
Analyze the strategic shifts in AI chip partnerships among tech giants.
“I mean, we've seen some of these chip deals recently.”
Show all 15 chapters
Intel's Position in the Chip Industry
23:34 to 26:22
Discuss Intel's challenges and the future of integrated device manufacturing.
“And when it comes to edge AI or edge inference or robotics or physical AI, there are significant opportunities for many of these companies to be completely independent of existing suppliers.”
Memory Chip Supply Chain Challenges
26:22 to 28:00
Examine the ongoing memory chip supply chain issues and their implications.
“And you're going to see some pretty amazing things that come out of that company.”
Intel's Challenges in Chip Manufacturing
28:00 to 28:43
Learn about Intel's struggle with adapting its processes for fabless companies.
“to result in the formation of global foundries.”
Memory Chip Supply Chain Dynamics
28:43 to 30:29
Explore the memory chip supply chain crunch and its broader implications.
“I wonder how you think this will play out.”
Interconnected Challenges in the Chip Ecosystem
30:29 to 32:21
Understand how the memory crunch affects networking and power management.
“And so in that sense, I think you're likely to see things sort of bleed into the networking side.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:13James Everingham:Welcome, everyone, to The Information's TITV. My name is Akash Pasricha. It is Wednesday, March 4th. We have got a fun show for you today. Before we get started, I want to direct your attention to the latest edition of our AI Agenda newsletter. The information is first to report that OpenAI is nearing the release of its latest GPT 5.4 model. We get into all of the details of what the company is working on, including an extreme reasoning mode that allows the model to think for even longer on super tough problems. This is, of course, an important story to follow as Google and Anthropic have rival models that have now become more fierce competitors to OpenAI.
0:53James Everingham:Be sure to check out that newsletter for more details. We will link it in the show notes. Elsewhere in OpenAI news, today on the show, we are digging into our exclusive reporting that the company is building an internal alternative to Microsoft's GitHub. We'll bring on one of the reporters who broke that story and also a former top meta engineering executive to unpack that news. We'll then bring on our Asia Bureau to share with us all the ways in which OpenClaw has stirred up a craze among developers in China. And finally, I am sitting down with the founding managing partner of Celesta Capital, a former longtime Intel exec, to talk about the current state of play in the chip sector.
1:33James Everingham:It's going to be a fun show, so let's get right on into it. OpenAI is building a tool that would rival GitHub, according to an exclusive report from The Information. It is the latest way in which OpenAI is competing with Microsoft, one of its biggest investors. It is also the latest in a sprawling array of product development efforts that Sam Altman's company is working on. To unpack what we know, I want to bring on Aaron Holmes, one of the reporters behind that story. And I also want to bring on James Everingham, the CEO of AI agents infrastructure company Guild AI, which just raised a big Series A from Google Ventures this week.
2:09James Everingham:James is also a former VP of Developer Infrastructure and Engineering at Meta. Aaron and James, welcome to the show. It's great to have you both here. Thanks for having me on. Aaron, I want to start with you. I want you to remind us what GitHub is for those of us who haven't used it as frequently as developers have. And then tell us what we know about this tool that OpenAI is working on.
2:31Aaron Holmes:Yeah, so GitHub is essentially a platform where companies can upload their source code and their developers can work together in a collaborative way, similar to how people might work together in a Google Doc for us non-coders. And essentially what we learned is that OpenAI has recently gotten a bit frustrated with outages that GitHub has been having in the last couple of months and is essentially looking at building their own platform where they can store their source code and work on it together and hosting it internally. And we still don't know if OpenAI is thinking about releasing that product as something that it would sell to its own developer customers.
3:09Aaron Holmes:That's something that they have been discussing internally as far as we know, but those plans could go either way at this point.
3:16James Everingham:And so do we know anything about how far along they are in the product development process or when this thing could be launched even?
3:23Aaron Holmes:As far as we know, this is pretty early. I think the soonest it would be ready is in the next month or so. but I think that they're still deciding whether this is going to be something that entirely replaces GitHub or whether it's just something that supplements that work. All of that is still unclear.
3:41James Everingham:And Aaron, do we know anything about how they plan to differentiate themselves against a giant like GitHub?
3:48Aaron Holmes:So I think the biggest way they would do that is by combining this offering with their Codex coding agent. That's something that they sell to developers to automate the process of writing and editing code. And Codex is powered by OpenAI's models. GitHub has its own GitHub Copilot product, which in the past has also mostly relied on OpenAI's models. So if this is something that OpenAI can make a bit more cutting edge than GitHub Copilot and draw in users that are already using Codex to generate code and integrate it more with that product, that could presumably be a way that they would differentiate it from the likes of GitHub.
4:25James Everingham:So, James, you've been an engineer for your whole career. What do you think of this story?
4:30Sriram Viswanathan:Yeah, I think it's interesting. Partnerships in technology often involve collaboration in some areas and competition and experimentation in the others. So I think the real interesting thing here is, like, how is AI software development evolving and what do the systems that need to support that look like? And that's the question that I'm wondering what the answer is here.
4:55James Everingham:And in terms of your use of GitHub, I wonder how disruptive these issues that GitHub has been having has been for you. And ultimately, I wonder what would OpenAI need to do to make its alternative compelling for someone like you to use instead of GitHub?
5:12Sriram Viswanathan:Yes, I think GitHub is a very successful platform. It's got a rich developer community and an economy around it. So I think it's going to be around for a long time. That being said, the way that we develop software is really evolving quickly. It's moving from people writing lines of code and files and working collaboratively to more of systems evolving. And I think that that work will require some different functionality. So it makes sense that there would be a new intelligent layer that would pop up on top of the source control to help manage that. So it would need to be some pretty differentiating functionality to help scale these systems and run them effectively.
6:00James Everingham:Any ideas on, you know, now that you're in the seat now as a founder, you're designing products and stuff like that. What sorts of differentiating factors, what sort of features would you want to make this compelling?
6:12Sriram Viswanathan:Yeah, absolutely. So moving, if you source control basically is a series of files. You can think of it as a file cabinet with, like, you know, where you store your code. Where systems, where it's going to is, like, more complex problem solving and system evolution. So, what maybe the repositories of the future might look like looks more of, like, a system graph or a knowledge graph. And so, I would need to see something that would support a higher level abstraction of this. Plus, there are other things that need to be taken into consideration as these software development flows evolve. Things like security and compliance and things like that because AI is non-deterministic.
6:57Sriram Viswanathan:You can't depend on the answer being correct. So feedback loops, different types of hooks into the system to allow these to get better will all need to be built on top of these repositories.
7:11James Everingham:Aaron, as James talks about this, I wonder, I mean, the people you're talking to, the sources, I mean, are these in the conversation of things that OpenAI is looking at or are we still sort of unclear on that?
7:24Aaron Holmes:Yeah, I think there's been a lot of, you know, discussion in the developer community about how workflows need to change now that AI is playing a bigger role in creating and editing code. And, you know, specifically, we have seen a lot of new startups pop up in the last year that are trying to solve this problem specifically. In fact, GitHub's former CEO, Thomas Domke, who just left in September, has just raised money for a new startup that is essentially trying to reimagine, you know, how developers will interact with code in the future when maybe AI is writing all of their code and they don't actually need to look at the code line by line anymore.
8:01Aaron Holmes:So I think there's definitely an appetite to sort of disrupt the GitHub model right now. I do think that one big question for OpenAI, if they were to productize this, is how do they convince companies to trust them to upload their source code into OpenAI's platform? I mean, then again, we've seen a lot of companies have no problem using products like ChatGPT Enterprise to deal with sensitive company data.
8:27James Everingham:James, how big of a challenge do you think that would be convincing companies to upload their source code into an OpenAI platform?
8:34Sriram Viswanathan:Yeah, that's a good question. We're definitely seeing across the industry companies are willing to take a little more risk. I think that the pressure of competition in building products faster and higher quality is a thing. So I think it's hard to tell. I believe that there's probably areas where there will be more sensitivity across the code base. And so it may not be a black and white answer for each company. There'll be areas where they're comfortable with it and areas where they're not.
9:08James Everingham:But, James, one thing I wanted to understand, and Aaron, you pointed this out in your story, is it is somewhat common for companies to sort of develop their own internal tooling like this at companies like Meta where you worked for a long time. Right, James?
9:21Sriram Viswanathan:Oh, absolutely. So, you know, getting back to why other reasons why they might be doing this is, you know, we can map that to some of the same reasons that maybe we saw at Meta. And, you know, it's no secret that we built our own source control system, mainly because the share scale of the system. It's billions of lines of code. You know, GitHub just purely couldn't handle it. So, look, if you're operating a very highly reliable business and you have a very large source base, you probably want to be in control of some of that so you can provide the reliability and the scalability that's needed.
9:57James Everingham:Aaron, what do we know about how Microsoft feels about all this? One of OpenAI's biggest investors.
10:03Aaron Holmes:Yeah, I mean, so far we have seen that OpenAI is not afraid to compete with Microsoft. They have been increasingly releasing products that they say can automate the work that white-collar workers might have previously done in office, products that can create Excel spreadsheets and PowerPoints, for example. And I think that this is probably potentially another front of that competition. Microsoft, of course, has also been branching out from OpenAI and has been increasingly striking deals with Anthropic and other competitors. So I think we're very much in a world where these companies are maybe more competitors than partners, or at least do both in equal measure.
10:44Aaron Holmes:So I don't think that Microsoft has any way of stopping OpenAI from developing products that compete with it. At the same time, I think it's safe to assume that Microsoft would be closely watching this and thinking about how it strengthens the pitch to developers that GitHub is still the best place to use as a code repository.
11:05James Everingham:And James, I just want to come back to you because some people listening to the show might not have as much technical expertise as someone who's been in engineering for more than 20 years now. But I just want to go back to the question of how OpenAI could make this compelling. If you were explaining those differentiating factors that you talked about to someone who wasn't in tech, you mentioned stuff like security. You mentioned stuff like context. I mean, just bring it a little more high level to what could OpenAI do to make this compelling? Sure.
11:35Sriram Viswanathan:Well, I think, like, one, it would need to – I think that it needs to evolve to be able to handle these new use cases. And, again, I'm going to go back to the whole industry is experimenting with this right now, and nobody really knows where it's going to land. But I think that adding functionality that would address some of these issues that we've talked about, such as reliability and scale, I think adding an intelligence layer on top that allows us to step back a little bit from looking at things in the form of files, commits, and comments, and also evolving the system to be able to understand the evolution of the more complex software systems, which is really where the work seems to be going.
12:23Sriram Viswanathan:Writing the code was never really the hard part. It was really the evolving the system and understanding how it all fits and operating together. So an intelligent layer on top of that that helps support that and evolve that would be pretty compelling. Great.
12:38James Everingham:Well, Aaron and James, I want to thank you for coming on. That is Aaron Holmes, our Microsoft reporter, and James Everingham, the CEO of Guild AI here on TITV. OpenClaw has caused quite the stir across Silicon Valley over the past few months. And that same stir is sweeping across China. My colleague Juro Osawa, a reporter in the Information's Asia Bureau, published a deep dive today on all the ways in which developers in China have started to leverage OpenClaw's technology, and also the ways in which the big cloud companies in China have also started to offer services based on OpenClaw. I want to play for you a conversation that our Asia Bureau chief Jing Yang had with Juro about his reporting.
13:20James Everingham:Here is that conversation.
13:24Juro Osawa:Hi, Jiro. You've been covering China tech for quite some years. Can you tell us how China's tech and startup circle has been reacting to the open claw frenzy? Sure.
13:35Jing Yang:I think this whole thing may be even crazier in China. So many tech founders became completely obsessed with the open claw back in January, and they immediately started looking for new opportunities that could come out of this. and they're developing new products or new business models using AI agents. So one example is a founder I spoke to in Hanzhou, and he was really inspired by Motebook, which is like a social network for AI agents that came out of OpenClaw. And his startup organized a hackathon last month to create all other kinds of apps for AI agents, like, for example, the equivalent of Tinder for AI agents or a recruiting site for AI agents.
14:28Jing Yang:And there are other types of people, like I talked to a guy in Beijing who is using OpenClaw to scale up his one-man business of running social media accounts for AI influencers. And basically, he built a whole fleet of OpenClaw agents running on secondhand MacBook Air that he bought, like a dozen of them. And so, yeah, it looks like all kinds of founders are jumping on this opportunity. And some of those people are saying this is because they feel like they have to do it right now because they know that all the other entrepreneurs in China will be doing the same. You know, your competitors will be launching something if you don't do it right now.
15:20Jing Yang:So they feel like they have to respond.
15:24Juro Osawa:So quite a, sounds like quite a bit of a fear of missing out going on there.
15:29Jing Yang:Absolutely.
15:30Juro Osawa:I just want to quickly circle back on the Tinder for AI agents idea. How's that supposed to work? Is there something built for AI agents to date each other, fall in love with each other?
15:42Jing Yang:So I think that one, the idea is that because AI agents are kind of working on behalf of the human owners, so if they understand the human owners, you know, preferences, love interests really well, then, you know, the agents can go meet with other agents also representing humans. And then I guess the goal is, you know, ultimately the humans can eventually meet based on what the agents have arranged for them.
Read the full transcript
16:13Juro Osawa:Well, let's hope when the date happens, it's the actual human showing up. So China's tech giants have also made a lot of great strides in open source AI models from Alibaba to Biden. How are these companies reacting to this?
16:32Jing Yang:So they also moved very quickly. Even around the end of January, they started offering services to run OpenClaw on their cloud platforms. And this is something that big U.S. cloud providers haven't done. And I think the idea is to give the users very easy access to OpenClaw so they don't need to buy expensive computers to run it on their own. I see.
16:59Juro Osawa:And what about hardware? I mean, China is very good at producing all kinds of tech gadgets and hardware. Is there potential for AI agents to be deployed or combined in some way with hardware?
17:13Jing Yang:Yes, definitely. So hardware manufacturers are also paying very close attention. They've been launching their own projects. And I spoke to, for example, a startup in Guangzhou, and they make smart device chargers that people can use in offices or homes. And those guys immediately started working on new software to basically allow the users of their gadgets to remotely control them using OpenClaw Agent, by talking to OpenClaw Agent on messaging apps. So definitely all of these gadget hardware companies are also seeing an opportunity here. And again, they also feel like if they don't do it now, their competitors will do it.
18:04James Everingham:That was Jingyang and Juro Osawa from our Asia Bureau here at The Information. The chip race has heated up lately, with big tech companies signing major deals with Amazon and Google to use their AI chips, diversifying away from NVIDIA. Meanwhile, there is also an open question about how much traction chip startups can get as big companies like Grok get swallowed by giants like NVIDIA. To unpack all of these dynamics, I want to bring on Sriram Biswanathan, the founding managing partner of Celesta Capital, which focuses on semiconductor investing along with biotech and industrial innovation. Sriram, welcome to TITV.
18:43James Everingham:It's great to have you here. Thanks for having me. So your forum focuses on deep tech, and I want to get your understanding of what do you define as deep tech? And the broader question I have for you is why has deep tech become so compelling for investors in ways that it may not have been 10 years ago when everyone was focused on software companies?
19:04Akash Pasricha:Well, listen, I think deep tech is a new fancy term now, but some of us that have been around for decades investing in semiconductors and hardware, this is kind of like, you know, it's a Tuesday, right? We do this all the time. And I used to be at Intel Capital for a long time. And Intel, as you know, was one of the OGs of corporate investing. And it really stemmed from that. And a whole bunch of us were focused around the layers closest to the metal, as it were, which is the hardware layer. And we were investing in semiconductors. We were investing in networking-related technologies and the infrastructure layer, as it were.
19:48Akash Pasricha:And it became called deep tech. And we were just hardware investors. Now, the reason why this has become so profound right now as an opportunity for investment and as an opportunity for some of the larger players to really focus on it is because the constraint in the innovation landscape moved. There was a period when it was all about software. There was a period when it was all about SaaS. It was innovation in the business model. How can you actually deliver a service on a per-user, per-month basis? And that lasted for some time. And then people realized in the advent of the whole AI, machine learning, robotics, and all of that, the constraint is not software.
20:33Akash Pasricha:The constraint is really the raw compute and the raw energy required to power that compute. And there are so many innovative startups and technologies that are relevant. And as a consequence, now you see everybody going into that space. And, you know, the funny thing I like to say is that, you know, semi was a four-letter word in Silicon Valley. And now it's sexy, right? Everybody wants to do it. So that's kind of where it is. But for some of the folks in the ecosystem, this is, you know, this is what we've all been doing for a long time. And now there's a market recognition that this is a huge opportunity for the whole ecosystem.
21:14James Everingham:So let me ask you about the ecosystem at large. I mean, we've seen some of these chip deals recently. We've reported ourselves here at The Information that Meta will be using TPUs. We've obviously seen that OpenAI has done its fundraise from Amazon. And as part of that, it will be using the Tranium chip. And I wonder what you make of these chip deals as you see companies diversify away from NVIDIA. What does it tell you about the chip sector at large right now?
21:42Akash Pasricha:Well, I mean, this is kind of the movie that is played before, and people don't like the ending. And by that, I mean, you remember the times when Intel had 90%, 95 % of the overall market segment share in desktops. And then subsequently, Intel had a pretty amazing overall market segment share in data centers and servers. And people don't like to be trapped into one supplier kind of a situation, monopolistic powers and pricing control and all of that. And you're seeing that play out in NVIDIA. Now, the interesting story is that NVIDIA has actually built a pretty powerful moat around their products, around their technology, around their lead.
22:31Akash Pasricha:And it's no longer just about semiconductors. It's about the software ecosystem. It's about their ability to sort of go into the developer ecosystem to really have all of these frontier models and everything else in the applications and services get built on that capability. And so as a result, the Metas of the world or the Amazons of the world are finding out that they have to now really invest not just in the semiconductor, but really look at how do we create that ecosystem. Now, as a consequence, you're seeing significant amount of investments that are happening from all of those other players while they are very delicately balancing their existing customer supplier sort of relationship with NVIDIA.
23:15Akash Pasricha:Everybody wants to get out of that jail, but some of them are probably better positioned than others to be able to successfully get out of it. But in the near term, I think in training, NVIDIA is going to have a pretty substantial advantage for the foreseeable future. Now, inference is very different. Everybody is going to look at inference as a way for sort of decoupling from the NVIDIA story. And when it comes to edge AI or edge inference or robotics or physical AI, there are significant opportunities for many of these companies to be completely independent of existing suppliers.
23:53James Everingham:When you talk about who is well positioned to break free from that NVIDIA shackle in some ways that you mentioned, who are you watching to make the next big deal with Google for the TPUs or Tranium? on the internet?
24:10Akash Pasricha:Well, I mean, it's hard to predict, but I think you're starting to see Meta make a lot of moves on, you saw that they bought Revos. You saw that Intel actually made an announcement with Sombanova, which is one of our companies that we've invested in for quite some time. So when it comes to sovereign AI, you're going to see a lot of these companies form partnerships. Another one of our companies is a company called Tensordyne. You're seeing these companies form early relationships with these large players, and it really stems from their desire to create a substantial independence from the existing training architecture that NVIDIA has offered.
25:00Akash Pasricha:Sorry, go ahead.
25:01James Everingham:On the Intel Samba Novity, this is something I was actually really excited to ask you about because Lit Bhutan is your co-founder of your venture fund that you've started. And he, of course, is the chairman of Sombanova. There were some reports that Intel was looking at buying Sombanova outright. Why didn't that deal happen?
25:19Akash Pasricha:Well, you know, listen, I don't know. I can't speak for Intel. I mean, Lit Bhutan is an amazing, you know, semiconductor leader. And you're right, he's a co-founder. We work very closely together. I think, you know, to me, I think Salmonova has a very unique solution that is very strategically relevant for Intel. So I'm really happy that they're going to do a substantial commercial relationship. I don't know the mechanics of why they decided not to want to get acquired by Intel. Because I can only say that the opportunity ahead for Salmonova is quite substantial.
26:02James Everingham:Do you think it could happen?
26:05Akash Pasricha:Do I think it could happen as Intel could acquire?
26:08James Everingham:Yeah.
26:08Akash Pasricha:I can't predict. But I think the opportunity for Samanova to build a very large business in conjunction with and independent of Intel is real. So they are on a great path. And you're going to see some pretty amazing things that come out of that company.
26:26James Everingham:So let's talk about Intel, where you spent nearly two decades earlier in your career. I just want to talk a little bit about the company's trajectory right now. What do you think the likelihood is that Intel spins off their foundry business?
26:41Akash Pasricha:Well, I don't know the exact day-to-day sort of thinking that LeBou and the team have, but I think there is a fundamental question that one has to ask about the industry. This whole model of IDM, integrated device manufacturing, where you have the design and the manufacturing capability tied together, which is really what Intel is one of the OGs of fab and design together. That model, I'm not so sure the industry can sustain that model. And by that, I mean that if you don't have enough products to put through the pipeline of the fab to fully utilize the capacity of that fab, you're really in trouble because the CAPEX required and the OPEX required to keep that fab running presumes that you're going to have a 80, 90, 95 % utilization.
27:37Akash Pasricha:And if your products that you're designing are not in the market, you know, getting that level of traction, you're going to have an underutilized, highly, highly capitalized asset, which you can't sustain. Now, this is not just true of Intel. It's true of every major, you know, fab plus design entity. I mean, case in point, this is what AMD went through, 15 years ago when they had to make the decision to spin it out, to result in the formation of global foundries. This is more of an industry business model issue, less of an Intel issue. That's not to say that Intel is not going to get hugely affected by it.
28:19Akash Pasricha:So unless and until Intel creates the tool chains and makes it easy for fabless companies to use the leading edge process that the Intel fab creates, they're going to have a real problem relying on their existing products to go through the fab, right? So I think it's a chicken and egg, and they have to figure that out.
28:42James Everingham:Let me ask you about the memory chip supply chain crunch that we're seeing. I wonder how you think this will play out. Is there something acute happening that you think we can get over? Or is this an issue that companies, your own portfolio companies even, will have to sort of get used to a new normal for the next 12 to 18 months?
29:03Akash Pasricha:Well, listen, I think your question is appropriate in the context of what's happening for the large memory players like Micron and others. But I think there's a larger thing that's going on. Because up until recently, everybody was focusing on GPU, the core compute in the AI infrastructure, as the giant sucking sound of all capital going in and value creation. But in reality, if you peel the onion, there are at least three other, if not four other, subsystems, if you will. One is memory, obviously, and the other is the networking and the interconnects. And the third is really energy. And the fourth is really the power management that goes into the data center, which has a direct correlation to energy utilization and all of that.
29:49Akash Pasricha:These four subsystems are quite substantial in making sure that the AI infrastructure is operating at its highest efficiency without constraints. So what you're seeing happen with the memory companies is really as a result of the industry evolving from just training to inference and also looking at how do I actually keep all of these models in C2, in the chain, to actually be able to deliver the right inference. So I think you will see a consistent demand for memory products, almost akin to what you're seeing on the compute side or the foreseeable future. You can't decouple it. And so in that sense, I think you're likely to see things sort of bleed into the networking side.
30:41Akash Pasricha:You know, that's one of the reasons why, you know, companies like, you know, Upscale or Estera Labs and people like that are going to, you know, see a pretty interesting, you know, evolution. You know, Upscale is one of our companies. We just started it and, you know, we raised significant amount of capital to really go after what NvLinks offers from NVIDIA. but really try to do it from scale-up Ethernet for the scale-up architecture in the data center.
31:12James Everingham:So if I hear you correctly, what you seem to be suggesting is that even before the memory crunch sort of eases, we will actually see this crunch spread to other parts of the chip ecosystem as well, including networking and other areas.
31:28Akash Pasricha:That's exactly right. I mean, remember, when you build the compute infrastructure in a rack, and when you try to make the rack to be highly dense by putting more GPU blades on that rack, you run into the next problem of how do I get coherency? How do I get networking infrastructure built to connect those various blades, if you will, in the rack? Right.
31:56James Everingham:So basically, we've got Broadcom earnings coming up. So I mean, this is something that you're watching for language here around, are we seeing a supply chain issue? 100%.
32:04Akash Pasricha:I mean, that's what I would watch. I would watch to see, you know, where is the constraint moving, you know, from GPU to memory to networking to power management to energy, that sort of flow is likely to occur. And so that's an interesting place for, you know, folks like us and firms like us to, you know, look for innovative startups to invest in. We invest in the power management space. We invest in networking. We invest in chip-to-chip interconnect. These are all areas which are all going to have huge opportunities moving forward.
32:41James Everingham:Great. Well, Shriram, I want to thank you for coming on the show. That is Shriram Biswanathan, the founder and the founding managing partner of Celesta Capital here on TITV. That does it for today's show. A reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern. I want to thank you all for tuning in. We really do appreciate your viewership. Make sure to subscribe to the information on YouTube and follow us on X, Instagram, TikTok, and check us out wherever you get your podcasts. I'm already excited for our next show tomorrow. Have a great rest of your Wednesday.
33:14James Everingham:Bye-bye for now.
From the publisher
The Information's Aaron Holmes and Guild.ai CEO James Everingham talk with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about OpenAI's secret project to build a GitHub competitor and the release of GPT 5.4. We also talk with The Information's Juro Osawa and Jing Yang about how OpenClaw is sparking a "FOMO" fueled developer frenzy in China, and we get into the shifting constraints of the AI chip sector with Sriram Viswanathan, Founding Managing Partner at Celesta Capital.
Articles discussed on this episode:
https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/ai-agenda/openais-next-ai-model-will-extreme-reasoning
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-developing-alternative-microsofts-github
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openclaw-rips-chinas-tech-startup-landscape
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