BTC258: Clarity Act, Bitcoin AI Education, and Payments w/ Parker Lewis (Bitcoin Podcast)

26:41And it's also ironic in a sense, because while Bitcoin is a perfect consumer of power, because it is perfectly monetary and perfectly economic and that when there's scarcity of power and the price goes up, Bitcoin miners come down. The AI companies are not nearly as flexible and it's actually starting to drive the price up. And now that will drive both new generation coming online, but it will, you know, more of the angst around the power dynamics get shifted towards AI and away from Bitcoin. So I think that that is a very positive. Well, just think of it from the, if you're the smartest AI in the world, like let's fast forward the tape, you're five years into the future and the AI, let's just say it is of an AGI level.

27:23It wants additional dampening on the grid. It wants additional robust infrastructure on the grid because it makes itself more powerful and capable by having that there. And how do you deliver that probably in the most optimal way, I would argue, is with Bitcoin mining. So it's going to be highly incentivized to ensure that there's Bitcoin mining alongside AI compute, inference compute. Yeah. It'll be a combination of Bitcoin mining and batteries of where can supply be, because miners can respond by turning off demand and batteries can be both incremental sources of demand, but also incremental sources of supply.

28:01So I think a combination of those two become a massive asset. Yeah. And I'll tell you the other thing too, from a battery standpoint, if people were making the argument that they think batteries would be a better choice than Bitcoin miners, which that's a whole rabbit hole in and of itself. I think when you look at how many robo taxis and how many cars just Tesla alone is going to have out there that is storing its energy via battery and how much inference compute those cars alone could do if you network them all, that's a whole other rabbit hole of going down the battery path versus Bitcoin. I guess my point is you're already going to have an insanely robust network of cars that are on a network as an additional material that's out there for stored energy.

28:50But yeah, that's a very deep and long rabbit hole in and of itself. So back in December, you gave a presentation at Old Parkland called Bitcoin is the Greatest Asymmetry. You laid out three pillars. The first one was the magnitude of the opportunity is unmatched. Second one was adoption is probable, but not possible. And the third is the surface area to evaluate is finite. Can you walk us through the framework, what you were really trying to accomplish with the presentation and any just like core highlights that you have for us? Sure. Yeah. And this presentation followed a presentation that I gave two years ago at the same venue.

29:27And Old Parkland's a really interesting place because it's a family office park in Dallas, but also just interesting side note, almost irrelevant, but it was actually where JFK was taken when he was shot in Dallas. It was old Parkland was Parkland Hospital that later was decommissioned and then bought by the Crow family and turned into an office park. But there's a lot of family offices that work out of there. It's a beautiful campus. And it's just a beautiful setting to be able to give a talk on Bitcoin. And it was a place I was familiar of from my time when I lived in Dallas. And I was invited to give a talk there in 2023.

30:02And the subject of that talk was the principal question that I kept hearing come up, which was in the title of the talk then was Bitcoin is not a hedge. And in that period of time, it was 2023, inflation was running rampant and the price of Bitcoin was going down process of 2021 to 2023. And that first talk that I gave there, I explained, hey, this is a pressing question that a lot of people have. It's not making sense to them. Let me help bring some clarity around it. Now that Bitcoin's sitting at 100 ,000-ish, there's been this discussion around quantum and there's quantum risk, but I've been experiencing just in my own network of friends that are not yet taking Bitcoin seriously, really getting hung up on this idea that Bitcoin's at 100 ,000, the sense of it's too expensive, I've missed it, my energy and focus is going on to AI.

30:47And I gave some of the backdrop to that talk was to frame how much asymmetry remains in Bitcoin or how early we really are and to paint a picture of where we're going. And oftentimes, depending on what the audience is or if I'm talking about a certain effect of Bitcoin, I like to jump to the conclusion and then work backwards. And so in this talk, it was really trying to frame of like, hey, you haven't missed it. I know that your energy has probably shifted onto AI, but your energy needs to be on Bitcoin because it is the greatest asymmetry in the world. And it's a very unique one in the sense that a lot of times people think about asymmetric opportunities as opportunities to make money, different asymmetric bets that are generally low probability.

31:33And what makes Bitcoin so unique is not just that there's great upside in it, but that it's the most foundational asymmetry because money sits at the foundation of the economic structure. But also this idea that there's negative asymmetry to not only currency debasement, but the end game of currency debasement, which is hyperinflation. that one of the themes in that talk that I talked about is that if you didn't invest in Apple early or Google early or Tesla early, and you could bring that forward to today thinking about some AI startup, if you passed on one of those opportunities and didn't make money, your life didn't get worse off.

32:14What I communicated to this crowd in this talk is that one of the uniqueness of asymmetry specific to Bitcoin is that if you don't take an action, no action is in action when it comes to your money that's getting destroyed. And that if you don't participate, your life will actually get worse off because ultimately your money is going to stop working. And what that means is not just that your purchasing power declines, but your standard of living declines. So I really broke into those three frameworks. We can go into each one of just the contextualization. But yes, there is massive positive asymmetry, positive risk to orders of magnitude up because of how early we are.

32:51And when you understand it in the framework of certain of the data points that I raised. That's number one. Second one being, by definition, most asymmetric events are low probability. Bitcoin is increasingly probabilistic. And I talked about ideas of how far Bitcoin has become, the absolute scale that it's at, various different major milestones, including the state of Texas buying it, but also just starting to understand the scale of power that is securing it, the work being done around payments, where launching Bitcoin payments. And then that third column, there is negative asymmetry, because while people think of often asymmetry as it relates to investments as great upside relative to the limited downside or limited relative downside, in this case, asymmetry can also mean limited upside and great downside.

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37:00This is a paid advertisement. All right, back to the show. Let's hit on the second one just a little bit, because I think for somebody that would maybe a first-time listener or just kind of coming to Bitcoin more recently, they might hear this discussion about probability versus possibility and maybe say you're a zealot because you're saying that it's so probable. So how would you address that for somebody that is just kind of showing up, Parker? Well, one of the ideas that I talk about is that before I get to the probability, I think it's encapsulated in the same idea. And it's certainly how I think about probability is that the surface area to evaluate Bitcoin is finite.

37:42And the evaluation, and it comes into probabilities because if I think about Bitcoin as being binary, it either works or it doesn't. If it doesn't work, it's not marginal. In my mind, its value goes to zero. Everything about Bitcoin working or not working is whether Bitcoin can credibly enforce its fixed supply without the need for trust. And whether against all odds, all adversaries, whether Bitcoin as an autonomous system can continue to solve blocks and what those blocks ultimately represent is the enforcement of Bitcoin's fixed supply. And the substance of that fixed supply is that it represents a form of money that can't be printed.

38:22And so with everything else in the world that someone might consider investing in, the surface area is necessarily non-finite. It's not necessarily whether something works or doesn't work. It's to what degree does it. Like something could fail, but even if it doesn't fail, is it a small win? Is it a double? Is it a triple? Is it a home run? And that it makes Bitcoin simpler in that way to say, okay, let me test the assumption first. Like if it were to be true that Bitcoin does have a fixed supply, is this idea that economic systems converge on one form of money. Then you can go back to the gold standard and the world converging on a gold standard.

38:59It doesn't mean 100 % of the entire world works on one form of money, but it means that there's a long tail that 99 % of it does. They can look to their own lives. They only interact with one form of money on a daily basis. And here's someone saying that Bitcoin's a form of money that can't be printed. And if it were true that that property held, would that cause the world to converge on it? That's the simplified way to think about it. Now, when I extend that out to say, okay, well, let's look at where Bitcoin is today. It's been around for 17 years. It's been around long enough for the state of Texas, which states any government institution from an investment perspective is inherently conservative.

39:41It's been long enough for an institution like BlackRock to launch an ETF to hold it, state of Texas to pass legislation going through the House, the Senate, the executive branch to buy it. And then they did. Looking at metrics like the amount of power that's securing the Bitcoin network, which I would put at an estimate of 20 to 30 gigawatts. And to give someone a context of a large manufacturing plant has five megawatts, that we're talking orders of magnitude larger than the largest manufacturing facilities. And then looking at the trend of where the Bitcoin mining hash rate has gone in the presentation.

40:19I used a data point from just two years ago, people look at Bitcoin being highly volatile, but you see this just steady increase of power continuing to come online in a more linear fashion, securing the Bitcoin network. And then you see the end game starting to take shape with large public companies like Square beginning to turn switches on such that 4 million people that use Square for payments can on a software terminal hit a button. And then if they want to start accepting Bitcoin as payments, they don't have to change anything. It meets them right where they're at. That to say, hey, 17 years in, the amount of power, the amount of interest, look at where we've gone from to where we are today.

41:02What causes this to break is if there was something that could undermine Bitcoin's supply and the incentives around it. And then as I said to somebody, I said, You don't have to use a probability the same way I do. What you have to accept is this thing is binary. The fulcrum that everything rests on is the credibility of its fixed supply. The larger that Bitcoin becomes, the longer that it exists, the larger it becomes, the harder it tangibly becomes to undermine, the harder it becomes to stop. And so even if you put the probability 1 % or 2%, I might put it at 90%, 99%. I don't expect somebody to look at the same equation and come to it as probabilistic as I believe.

41:50But even if you discount that heavily, the equation given the other two pieces of the framework of how absolutely positive asymmetric the skew is, and that there's great downside if you were to be wrong, that even if you're discounting it and saying there's a 1 % probability, you still have to be exposed to it. Yeah. And so I think that it's easier to actually evaluate because it's binary, but again, you can discount it heavily and arrive at the same conclusion just to a different degree. And I'll summarize this for anybody who was hearing that. Parker's saying you need a position. You need to have some Bitcoin in your portfolio is what he's saying.

42:30And I agree. I mean, you lay it all out there. And it's the amount and the quantity that you would attribute to that. And like you're saying, it's completely up to the eye of the beholder as to what numbers they want to slap on there. But saying that the probability is zero, which if a person wants to say it's zero, they can say it's zero. But the skew on if you're wrong is quite brutal if you want to say it's zero. So I want to talk about this ribeye index. I think this is pretty fun. And just to slap some numbers on this that you've been posting, you've been tracking the price of the same ribeye steak at the same store since 2020 for the last five years.

43:11Your latest update showed a 72.5 % cumulative inflation over that period, and that's 19 % annualized if anybody's keeping track, which is a far cry from the official CPI. It's even higher than what many people say the M2 growth rate is here in the US, which is around 8 % or 9 % annualized over the same period. What's your take on this and why is this important? You know, one, it's a great way to distill everything that's happening in the world because the ribeye doesn't lie. It's still desirable, right? It's scarce and desirable. So it's - It requires work to produce and like there's food, energy, money as kind of three key working systems that are very foundational to our economic system.

43:56It's also a great troll to the fiat economists that say that you can't distill things down. And it is an oversimplification, but it is this idea that inflation is a vector that whether or not you consume a lot of ribeyes, you need to look at the things in your life that you consume and measure inflation based on those things. Because if the Federal Reserve is saying that CPI is 2.7%, but you're going to CVS and Walgreens and things are rising at far higher rates, or if you're getting on planes to go visit family or a flight used to cost$300 and now it costs$600, that inflation is really the goods and services that you consume.

44:35And if your rate of inflation is not keeping pace with your wages, the net consequence to that is your standard of living has declined. And so I consume a lot of ribeyes. I enjoy eating ribeyes. And when you look at something as basic as a commodity in the same place that doesn't change, that it's a true unobstructive view of how prices are actually changing. And food is fuel at the same time. So if you eat a lot of chicken and start paying attention to the same chicken, you can't swap out a chicken for chicken nuggets, because that might not be the same chicken, but start comping the same basic commodities and see how they're trending over time in your area, because that's actually a better measure for how relative prices are actually changing versus what the Fed or the BLS are telling you they're changing.

45:29Yeah. I mean, the point on the ribeye too is it's so pure for the most part that it's a great index because like you're saying, so much of the food is just being replaced. The ingredients of the food is being replaced with just absolute garbage that's cheaper and not nearly as nutritious. Now, you can make the argument on the ribeye that it's corn-fed and not necessarily grass-fed. But I think back in 2020, which is when you started this, everything was pretty much corn-fed anyway. You were buying it at a regular grocery store was probably corn-fed anyway, so it still is. Yeah. There's a chance that if anything, they might have substituted out for something worse.

46:07They didn't make it better over that period. Yeah. So it's like, that's the minimum degree. But also, and I say this in a way that it comes back to this idea of negative asymmetry to the odd inflation. I went to CVS a few nights ago and I got eight things. No, I went to Walgreens. Got eight things, basic things like children's Motrin and trash bags and disinfectant spray and some vitamin C gummies or something. Eight things,$109. And inflation, it is off the charts. It's nowhere near CPI. It's nowhere near CPI. Prices are changing more frequently. People are observing it. And there's a reality that it is suffocating a large majority of the country.

46:50And it's serious. You know, it's like part of the rib eye index, like it is true. It is a great measure of inflation. It is also a great way to troll fiat economists. But on the other side of it, it's like, hey, like there is negative asymmetry. And one of the things I mentioned in the talk was that I don't talk about hyperinflation to be a doomer. And it's uncomfortable to think about. But it's also the logical endgame, and no action is an action. And that it's getting to the point that it's so bad, particularly things like food. People can look at housing prices coming down because interest rates are high.

47:24But by and large, anything that requires production on a recurring basis is trending up significantly over time. And it might dip for a period of time, but electricity prices are going up, gas prices are going down, but gas prices have gone down before and gone up again, that the trend is all being driven by the same underlying mechanism, and it's fiat money printing. And it takes time to distribute through the economic system, but it's real, it's serious. It ends in one way, and that one way is hyperinflation. And if people don't respond in a way that is high agency to actually protect themselves by opting into a better form of money, it's not going to be the difference of inflation between 3 % and 6%.

48:07It's going to be them not being able to afford the very basic necessities in life. And so I bring it up not to like scare people, but to say, hey, there's something you can do about this. And you should be because the more people that are protecting themselves, the better off we're all going to be. It seems that there's been a major shift in nutrition. And maybe it's just the feed that I'm seeing on X as to the people that I'm following and whatnot, everybody seems to be slowly starting to understand that the meat is healthy for you and that it's not going to give you a heart attack like this marketing and propaganda that was really quite prevalent, I would argue, clear up to COVID.

48:46And it seems like ever since COVID, there seems to be a bit of a trend in the opposite direction of people questioning. I mean, we literally just had Kennedy come out and flip the food pyramid upside down. And I think things like this at a federal level are causing a lot of people to say, hold on, like, what is, was I lied to for decades on end? I'm curious. I don't know. There was a clip floating around from South Park. Yeah. It's like Kennedy's on the phone and the guy in the lab says, he's like, sir, the pyramid is not working. Turn it upside down. Like what? Turn it upside down. They turn it upside down and then it like all fits into place.

49:27And I do think that part of this broader trend that people are finding their way out of the trance that they were under. Yeah. You know, whether the money, the health, and obviously all these things are highly interconnected, that there's people that are there bucking the authorities to think for themselves and say, yeah, I'm going to go this other direction. I'm going to try because whatever you've been telling me to be true, it's not been working out. And I think that it's getting so much momentum in various different areas that it all winds up kind of intersecting each other. Because the other side of it is like, if you figure out that you've been lied to about the food for 30 years, it's not so easy just to be like, oh, I'm going to start eating steak again.

50:17You know, if you don't have the savings to be able to do that, like you can't fix that overnight. That is a big part of what's happened is this, as inflation has occurred, people have had to shift into lower quality food that's screwed up their health. And it's not something you turn around overnight, but it is something that's connected with it. But the sooner that somebody can start to see the signal, basically turn off the noise, then they see these things as being related to each other and can start actually making positive change. Yeah, totally agree. You wrote this back in, I think back in May, you wrote that the greatest trick the central bankers ever pulled was convincing the world that the individuals must perpetually take risks just to preserve value already created.

51:00Bitcoin reverses that, it lets people save again instead of being forced to speculate. Paint this picture of de-financialization and what the de-financialization economy looks like, especially in the face of everything that we've just seen with AI, because it just seems like this financialization of everything and forcing people to speculate is just kind of hitting yet again, another higher fever pitch than where it was a year ago with some of the antics that we're seeing with NVIDIA and OpenAI and the likes of the shenanigans that they're pulling from a financialization standpoint to raise capital.

51:38Yeah. One example that I would lean on to segue from this food discussion in the ribeye index is I was helping our local rancher who also owns a grocer understand Bitcoin and going from this perspective of financialization and specifically the quote you just mentioned of thinking about, hey, if you're producing beef, and then you're building a grocer to be the way that consumers actually purchase things from you rather than just the farmer's market or rather than selling through a larger grocery chain. Imagine every gross margin unit that you sell, not being able to purchase commensurate value that you delivered in the present.

52:21So think about it literally as like every unit you sell, whatever value you delivered in the present will purchase you less in the future. And that's because they print money. How can you possibly continue to maintain the same standard of quality if that's what you're up against? And then layer on to that the fact that you know that. You know that your dollar, your gross profit that's then turning into your bottom line is degrading in value. And that part of the way that you have to counter that is on the side of being a rancher, on the side of being a grocer, you're having to invest your money.

52:58So you're constantly having to change your business model, or at least your pricing model, oftentimes in arrears because your input costs are changing faster than you're actually changing them to your end customers. But then you know that you're on this hamster wheel. And so at the same time that you're trying to run your business, you have a certain amount of savings that you also know is being degraded. That after your full-time job is over, oftentimes just imagining whether it's a rancher, a grocer, doctor, lawyer, teacher, after their primary way of delivering value and working is over, I just have this visual of like between 8pm and 10pm sitting in front of a computer, those same people trying to pick stocks.

53:40And so it's like a hit them high, hit them low phenomenon. And that if you could just take the fly out of the ointment and say, hey, if you could just convert your goods and services directly into a form of money that can't be printed and stores its purchasing power, two things happen. All the value that you delivered in the present holds value into the future so that you're actually in a position to continue to deliver the same quality and standard without having to do incremental work. And you don't have to bother between the hours of 8 p.m. and 10 p.m. to become a stock picker. You can just focus on your craft.

54:15And so I always focus on the micro of an individual and the predicament that the money printer and the degradation of savings for each individual. And then I extend it out to the bigger macro trends of, okay, now everybody is looking at AI and feeling like they need to pick a winner. And so you just have this huge herd mentality of trying to basically offset. And it's not to say, it's like when I'm talking about how if you take the fly out of the ointment and it will remove a large swath of people investing that otherwise wouldn't be investing other than to outpace or try to outpace inflation, it's that there's still going to be innovation.

54:58We're always going to be where we're at today and humans are always going to have problems that need to be solved and that it won't eliminate investment. And if there's innovation to be had that necessarily means solving problems for enough people to justify a margin in a business, that there's still going to be opportunities to invest that occur naturally. It's not going to eliminate that, but it stops people from having to constantly feel like they're chasing the next thing as a way to outrun the money printer. And the other problem is that a lot of people don't even realize that that's what they're doing.

55:34Yeah. And so there are obviously some financial engineering in terms of like, I haven't gotten into the details of it. And this might've been what you were alluding to with how some of the revenue accounting is then leading to their ability to raise capital. That sort of financial engineering might sit at a different level. But I also think that that's a much higher order than the fundamental that really drove financialization, which is a money printer and that the trend that will cause the de-financialization, the simplification without removing investment broadly is just a form of money that can't be printed.

56:07Yeah. I love this point of yours because it's just, I think if you went and just did an audit of middle-class America, everybody just feels like they're already running at 120 % and they're looking to their future and they're saying, oh my God, I'm going to have to run at 140%. And they're just tapped out. They're tired. They're having to do things that just feel like there's never any pause or rest and that the expectation for the future is they got to go faster and harder and i'm with i'm with you by and large to stay in the same place just to exactly just to stay in the same place and not even get ahead and maybe even fall back a couple clicks so yeah i'm with you and i mean you and i see the solution and we think that we see it very clearly hopefully we're right i'm pretty sure that we're on to something but yeah that's a that's a good place to just say that that's a big part of what this talk was about like it wasn't specifically about like this relationship between ai and bitcoin but like it is so easy in this world for people's attention to go to the next thing saying like hey there's a real problem here this thing is not going to fix itself bitcoin is the solution or if you don't see that yet you need to be thinking about it through that frame and spend the time to evaluate it.

57:23Because in a 24-hour news cycle, and there is a negative psychology to Bitcoin being quote as expensive as it is, but in the grand scheme, it is in its infancy still. And there's large consequence to it. And so even though you and I have come to that conclusion, it's like so many people just turn it off without going deep. And then they have some excuse not to. It was like, I don't believe in Bitcoin, but blockchain now it's like, well, AI is the future and maybe we aren't going to need money. And it's like, no, that's just an excuse not to go down the Bitcoin rabbit hole, but there's great consequence to you if you don't.

57:56And so focus your time and energy there. It's actually a lot easier than you might think it is. A lot more basic, a lot more fundamental. And if nothing else, it certainly merits your time, just given the inherent asymmetry, if it were to be true. So I'm just going to put this out there for the listener. As you can tell, Parker has an amazing way of explaining a lot of these really important variables around Bitcoin. He has a book. It's called Gradually Then Suddenly. It's an incredible book. I'm sure people can go on Amazon to pick it up. And Parker, did you have anything else that you wanted to point people towards if they want to learn more about you?

58:32I would only clarify, it's actually on Save Dean's website. I just went there. I went pure Bitcoin on this. The book can be bought at thesafehouse.com, which is safe spelled S-A-I-F, thesafehouse.com. The ebook is there as well. I just finished the audio book, so that'll be coming out shortly. Oh, nice. Read it myself. And then I just say, if you could link the presentation that was at Old Parkland, Bitcoin is the greatest asymmetry show notes so that people could access it if they want to with ease. And then I'd say for those people that already grok Bitcoin and see it as money, understand why it's towards value, I highly encourage those people to start to accept it as payment.

59:11And if they're thinking about that, to reach out to us at Zaprite, Z-A-P-R-I-T-E. dot com. And I'll help you personally help you get set up and at least talk you through what it would require. So yeah, if it's not yet clicking, grab my book, go listen to the presentation. And if it already is, then turn your business into a Bitcoin treasury company by accepting its payment. Yeah, I would tell you having used ZapRate a few times, it's pretty awesome, Parker. And for anybody listening, if you're a merchant or you own a business and you want to start accepting Bitcoin, but you don't want to have to do any of the hard work to set it all up, that's what his company ZapRate does.

59:45So we'll have a link to that in the show notes as well. So we'll have a link to all that stuff that he mentioned in the show notes. So check out the show notes, guys. Last episode at the end, this was our mastermind discussion. American HODL surprised all of us and did an on the fly AI music song about the four of us in that mastermind group. Since last week when we did this, I've played around with this AI music. And it's actually hilarious and actually pretty good if you give it a decent prompt. So what I'm going to do just for fun, at the end of each of the shows, I'm going to feed it the AI transcript of what we just talked about.

1:00:27And we're going to turn it into a song of your choice of genre. So if you like rock, if you like hip hop, whatever it is, you decide, Parker. And as soon as we hang up this call, that song is going to play for everybody that just listened to the podcast. So with that said, Parker, what is your favorite artist genre? What is it? Dude, Texas country. Texas country. Yeah. So I'd either go like Robert O 'Keefe or Jerry Jeff Walker, Shane Smith and the Saints. Okay. Well, there you go. That's what the recap of this episode is going to be. I hope you guys enjoy the song. And Parker, thank you so much for joining us and making time.

1:01:09Yeah, Preston, it's been good to be here. Thank you for having me on.

1:01:18I was waking up at mid-time to an inbox full of lies Staring at that frozen tickle while the world slipped outside Boss man said just chase that bone Don't you dare quit this ride Every turn on every screen Looked like a slow landslide Water moves downhill, son Soda's on his money You can fight the current Till you can finally run free They can't crank a handle Just she turns into funny Water moves downhill, son Come wait out here with me guitar solo

1:02:48Like paper ashes in a rusted metal tray Saving hard, standing still While the price tags ran away Water moves downhill, son So does honest money You can fight the current Or you do finally run free They can crank the handle Till she turns into funny Water moves downhill, son Come wait out here with me So I swap my suit for denim Drink glass for sky and sun Stacked a little sitting over Every time the work I've done Oh yeah, Becker laughed and called it foolish Said it's just some passing dream I said, friend, I've seen your letter And I know what passing means Water moved downhill, son It's so is honest money You can't fight the current Or you can finally run free They can't spin their stories Till numbers just get runny Water moves downhill, son Come wait out here with me Water moves downhill, son That's where I'll always be

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