TECH003: Elon Musk's Tesla Robotaxi, Optimus, and more w/ Cern Basher (Tech Podcast)

26:44So Uber's in that$2 to$3 range. If you own your own car and then you sell it after five years, it's about 65 cents to 80 cents. Elon's thinking he can get these robo taxis down to about 25 to 30 cents per mile, which I mean, you're very generically, it's half the cost of going out and owning your own vehicle and dealing with all of that personally. And the other thing too, Preston, that happens is that this becomes a platform to layer other services on. So if you've got this ubiquitous network of vehicles driving around, they can deliver food, they can deliver packages. You can layer on all kinds of other services on top of this platform.

27:23You can also use it as an advertising platform. So I've actually said that eventually you may be able to get free rides on this network if you're willing to subject yourself to advertising wow right because the costs of the car is so cheap to operate instead of getting paid by the customer you can just get paid by the advertisers restaurants might pay tesla to advertise in the car right or restaurants may even pay tesla to say hey we'd recommend going to xyz pizza place and it just takes them there like the kind of experiences you can have in a robotaxi you're actually kind of unlimited sir can you imagine the fact that he has xai and already has a very good understanding of what it is you like yeah what it is you want to be advertised on like he's going to know all of that and you'll be able to talk to the cars too preston you'll have a conversation with the robotaxi these things are going to get all your geo like where you typically eat it's yeah holy crap let's say you travel to a city you fly to chicago and you say take me to the best pizza place in the city and then grok is talking to you and saying well do Do you like this?

28:27Do you like that? You can have a conversation and then the car then just takes you there. And along the way, it can act as a tour guide and say, oh, by the way, this building was built in 1938 and it was once the second tallest building in the world or whatever you're interested in. It becomes a platform for all these different kinds of services. I saw some of the videos of people using the Grok AI in the car and the feedback, at least that I saw online, I don't know if I was being fed this for marketing purposes or what, but the feedback that I was seeing online was extremely favorable. People were like, it felt like I was having a conversation with a real person as I was, you know, people were telling it, Hey, take me somewhere that you think I would like that I've never been before in my own town.

29:08And it literally took them somewhere. And then they went in and they were like, this was so like some of the feedback that I've seen online was actually really favorable. And I think we're just on the cusp of like where this is all going. Like this is nice. Yeah, right now Grok is not connected directly to the operation of the car. So you can talk to Grok and it's like talking to, you know, just laptop or a computer or your phone, but it's not controlling the car. Eventually, I think there'll be a link between the two and you'll be able to have an interesting conversation with Grok about, hey, why did you cut that other car off back there?

29:42Didn't you see it? Or, you know, can you drive a little slower? I'm not comfortable with the way you're driving right now or whatever it is. you'll be able to have this conversation with the vehicle. Yeah. Right. In addition to just being able to query it with information about restaurants and different things. That's going to be a neat moment, I think, when that happens. Okay. So the cars is one piece of it. The other part that I think is maybe a little bit further behind, help me out understanding kind of the timeline, but the trucks. So yeah, go ahead. Yeah. Tesla is building a factory in Nevada that has a capacity of 50 ,000 semi-trucks a year.

30:16That factory will likely be finished maybe the end of this year, early next year. They'll start ramping up production. So let's say by 2027, they're producing 50 ,000 semis a year. You know, there's quite a few trucks in the United States. It's going to take a while to replace the fleet with electric trucks. At the same time, they will also be like the robotaxi. They will be autonomous trucks at some point. And just like how that's going to revolutionize the cost of transportation, it's going to revolutionize the cost of trucking. We can really get massive savings on the cost of trucking. And of course, trucking costs cause inflation in everything we buy, right?

30:54If trucking is expensive and moving goods around the country is expensive, it makes everything we buy that much more expensive. So this is going to be a massive deflationary force throughout the economy that's going to be good for all consumers. So every American will benefit from Tesla being able to reduce the cost of trucking. The trucking industry right now has a real problem in the cost to operate. Most trucking companies are not very profitable. The cost of fuel, the cost of the driver, cost of the driver, I think works out something like a dollar a mile. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. It's about 70 cents to 90 cents per mile.

31:25Yeah. Including benefits, maybe a buck. Yeah. And so robot trucking gets rid of that. And then of course the diesel cost also is huge. If they're electric trucks, you have massive savings on the fuel costs. Yeah. And then of course the maintenance, the maintenance on these trucks is pretty high because these engines wear out. Electric trucks won't have as much maintenance as fewer moving parts. There's just less stuff to maintain. Yeah. They'll just swap the battery and put new tires on it and keep rolling. Okay. Yeah. So the all-in cost per mile that I'm seeing for the line haul is anywhere from a buck 60 to$2 a mile.

31:59And the Tesla robo trucking is expected to come down to about 60 cents to 80 cents. So we'll say about a 50 to 65 % reduction in cost. Not as much as the individual car for people getting around, which was mind-blowing, like 10X improvement. This is about 50%. But I guess my understanding is that this is a much more reliable stream of income because you're dealing with big vendors. And once they come into this, call it Amazon or Walmart or whoever, once they come into this space and they stay there and they see that it's a lot cheaper, it's humming along. Yeah. I mean, a 10 % reduction in trucking costs would be huge.

32:40I mean, it would drive massive change. 50 % is absolutely enormous. The thing that's different about the trucking market is you've got, it's all commercial operators, right? It's not like we personally own our own vehicles and we can operate them pretty cheaply, right? And Uber and Lyft right now are way more expensive to use than just driving our own personal vehicles. You don't really have that in the trucking market. It's all commercially operated. The industry's earning an average, say$2 to$2.30 a mile. And as long as you can come under that, you're going to gather market share. And as you keep sort of driving that down a little bit, all those players are going to be, they're not going to be economic anymore.

33:18You're going to drive them out of business. And the whole industry is going to shift towards electric trucking and autonomous trucking pretty fast. Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet. You're not alone. And plus 500 futures is a great place to start. The futures markets are moving fast. And with plus 500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S &P 500, Bitcoin, and more. From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening. The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone. You can get started with just$100 and jump into the action.

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34:34Track your cha-chings from every channel right in one spot and turn real-time reporting into big-time opportunities. Take your business to a whole new level. Switch to Shopify. Start your free trial today. On the robo-taxi piece, who's the competitors? Who could give him a run for his money at this point? Well, that's a good question because there might be some competitors in China. And I think the Chinese might be a little hesitant to have Tesla control that market. So I would expect the Chinese to kind of ensure that they've got some home growing talent there. And there's some companies that are showing some pretty impressive results there.

35:11But Tesla objectively is way ahead of most of those companies. Yeah. You've got a lot of companies that want to be part of this. If you look at Waymo, for example, in the US, the problem with Waymo is that they have a very expensive solution. A car with a lot of sensors and a lot of bells and whistles. Tesla is basically just using cameras and a computer. and Waymo has thousands and thousands of dollars of other equipment that you have to take existing cars, modify them and add them to the fleet. Tesla makes their own vehicles and they roll off the assembly line ready for service. They drive themselves to where they need to drive themselves off autonomously.

35:48Yeah. They're doing that today in the factory. They drive themselves to the lots to be picked up by the trucks. So Waymo really can't compete with Tesla on cost. And I don't know that they'll ever be able to. Yeah. Because again, they don't have their own manufacturing plants. Yeah. You're getting into the highly debated LIDAR. Do we need LIDAR on the car or not? And Elon has always been of the firm opinion that you just, hey, if there's a human back there and they're using image eye, you know, visible light spectrum sensing, then why in the world do I need anything other than that with the car?

36:20Especially if I have basically eyeballs all over the car viewing in the visible light spectrum yeah the other risk to preston that elon's talked about is what happens if you have the disagreement between the two sensors yeah how do you resolve that i don't know i don't know if i buy that argument i think that's more him posturing for why it's safe enough and like kind of raising it as if it could potentially make it less safe but i think if you trained it on enough data i mean ai is always better when you give it more information. Right. So I don't think that it's going to have that rivalry. In theory, I've seen some examples where that makes sense to me, but again, I'm not an expert in the mechanics of this area.

37:02Certainly the more parameters, the more inputs you give into the model, the better off it should be. Yeah. But certainly you want to be careful about confusing it and saying one sensor is saying that's a wall and another sensor is saying that's a plastic bag. And how do you resolve that? If you resolve it in the wrong way, suddenly you could have a problem. Yeah. Well, that's a good argument because the, yeah, the plastic bag, imagine a plastic bag, like being over top of the LIDAR sensor. And yeah, no, that's a great point. Well, that too. I mean, that case the car would just have to slow down.

37:32I mean, just like if something came on the windscreen of your vehicle, you just try to slow down as safely and as quickly as you can pull off to the side of the road. The same thing would have to happen with an autonomous vehicle if it's cameras or sensors were degraded in some way. Yeah. You know, I think too, like for example, during rain, a lot of the people say, well, these vehicles are not going to be able to operate when it's raining. And it's not true they can, but to a point. And they stop operating when they think it's unsafe. Most humans actually continue to drive actually even in those unsafe conditions.

38:01So it's actually going to make travel a lot more safer on all kinds of different levels, even if the vehicles don't operate during periods of time. So where are we at? They're already doing test runs in Austin. How much longer until we're going to start seeing these things like show up? I was really surprised with the Tesla truck. It was just like you started seeing them everywhere, like out of nowhere. Is that kind of what we're going to see with the robo taxis where they just kind of like show up and like they seem to be kind of everywhere within months? Or is this going to be a slow rollout city by city?

38:31Yeah, they're operating right now in a pilot service in Austin. They're operating in pilot service in the Silicon Valley area. Those are the two areas we're seeing testing in a bunch of other places. Elon certainly has designs on rolling out robo taxi in multiple locations as quickly as possible but the reality is i think they need to make sure that it's as safe as it can possibly be the last thing they want to do is rush this and if they are six months a year later than everybody's expectations so that's fine yeah right you really have to be careful with this at the same time they're improving the underlying full self-driving model we're all anxiously awaiting for version 14 and hopefully we'll see that soon anything expected with that version Well, Elon's talked about how it's going to 10x the number of parameters that the model considers.

39:18And so it should make the system that much better. Again, to your point, the more information that you give AI, the better the outcome should be. And Elon has made sort of comments that the car seems sentient. So we're all anxiously awaiting to experience this for ourselves and see what it's like. Because you basically have AI nested itself into a body, which is a car. Yeah. he said like what examples does he have this thing is we were short on on examples at this point it's just comments from him uh what and you know he's seeing things months before we get to see it so we're anxiously awaiting what this new version of fsd is really like well yeah what in the world does that even mean yeah i mean the goal obviously is for the car to drive better and safer than a human and i think in many respects it already does yeah what are those stats what are you hearing from that regard as far as well, that's mixed.

40:11I mean, a lot of it is the personal stories that people post on X, right. And how the car behaves in certain conditions. You know, I had one experience, for example, I was on a highway in Tennessee and I was doing probably 75 miles an hour, whatever the speed limit was. And all of a sudden I felt my, I drive a Cybertruck, I felt my Cybertruck accelerate. And before I could even realize what was going on, another car past me probably going 140 miles an hour but it was coming up right behind me in the right lane and then suddenly turned into the left as it passed me but the truck thought that that car might actually rear end me so it correctly calculated that it should accelerate so that that would be less no way right and then as soon as that car passed me the truck slowed back down again to the speed so that kind of behavior that humans we just can't see we can't react to it I didn't see that car until it passed me.

41:02Right. Wow. So the stories like that, and there's other things where it sees kids that walk onto the street, the human driver never saw because they were blocked by a van or something. It saw the kid approaching the van from the sidewalk, recognize that there's a child behind there that might pop out. Therefore the car slowed down. There's things like that. But also Preston, there's also examples of the car kind of behaving weird in certain situations. Of course. So, you know, not everything is perfect yet. I think I read somewhere that the car is demonstrating per mile way lower crash rates than a human driver.

41:39Is that accurate? Is that true? I think that's fair to say. Again, we don't have our hands on the actual underlying data based on what Tesla shares with us. We believe that to be true. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. And in quite a significant way too, by the way, based on the data that Tesla shares. Yeah. Interesting. Okay. So those were two examples. Do you have any others that you think are close to market or something that's going to be an S-curve in the evaluation? Yeah, well, the energy storage business. So Tesla makes these Megapacks. They are the size, it's a box, basically the size that fits on a flatbed trailer.

42:14Okay. And they're designed to be that big because batteries are big and heavy. You know, you want them to be as big as possible, but not so big that you have problems moving the system. These Megapack systems basically allow us to store energy and use it whenever needed. So it's perfect, for example, if you have wind and solar that only generate certain times of the day, you can store the energy and use it later. That's great. Elon has said that if we applied enough battery storage, we could actually double the generating capacity of the United States without adding any more generation. Because we have a lot of sort of capacity in places that's excess that's only used in certain times of the year, certain times of the day, for example.

42:52But with battery storage systems, you could run those at capacity and store that energy all the time. So that's one quick way to accelerate the energy generation infrastructure that we have already in place without building any more. Now, of course, we have to build more, but an easy win would just be to add battery storage to everything. And so I think that Tesla energy, their energy business should see accelerated growth. It already has, but I think even further from here. Do you think that this is one of the main reasons why Elon just doesn't talk about Bitcoin? Is this is a competitor to, in a way, this is a competitor to Bitcoin mining?

43:31Yeah, it puzzles me a little bit when I think about Bitcoin and Tesla. I mean, certainly Tesla bought Bitcoin, I think it was in February of 2021. That time, Bitcoin's market value was like a trillion dollars or approaching a trillion. They sold some. and one of Elon's comments about it was, well, tell me when the Bitcoin network has crossed 50 % renewable energy sources. That was kind of his beef, right? And since then, there's not really been much discussion from him about it. Yeah. Right. Now, I've been agitating a little bit that Tesla should start buying more Bitcoin, not necessarily become a Bitcoin treasury company, although that could be interesting too, but that may be taking a little bit too far, but even just acquiring more Bitcoin, because my stance on this is that as we approach this world of AGI and ASI, that that is going to be a very uncertain time in many ways.

44:19And I would want any company to go into that with as much capital as possible. And not to mention that as we approach that world where we get disruption from humanoid labor or even the AI in general, the value of fiat money is going to potentially be compromised that much more. They're going to have to offset all of the technological deflation that's happening with printing. Yeah. Yeah, 100%. So the only place when the store capital is going to be in Bitcoin. Yeah. That's going to be safe from that. Yeah. Now, Tesla should reinvest in their business as much as possible. That's what's limiting them now, that they're not buying back stock.

44:54They're reinvesting in their business. They have a cash hoard of about$37 billion, I think it is, and a billion in Bitcoin. So I'd like to see them over time build up their Bitcoin position. Certainly companies like NVIDIA that are aggressively buying back stock, I think are making a big mistake. And I think we're seeing already that the amount of money that needs to go into AI infrastructure is so large and growing every quarter. We get the estimates are higher and higher and higher that for NVIDIA to give away their capital right now, I think is actually a big mistake on their part. Yeah. I think they'll be fine.

45:25I don't think it's putting the company at risk, but they may be missing out on future opportunities. Yeah, I would agree with that. Obviously, that's a hardcore Bitcoiner. Yeah. One last topic that I want to get into this with you on is the optimist robot. I find this mind blowing. I find from an engineering standpoint, I'm just watching videos on, here's how we designed and not even from Tesla, but just like other people that are operating in this space. Here's how we designed the ankle for our humanoid robot in the crazy amount of engineering into just some of the joints in the hands. I think Elon recently said that designing a humanoid robot's hand is crazy difficult, insanely difficult to get all the joints and you just don't understand how much engineering goes into something like that.

46:17Talk to us about where you see this. Start off with the timeline. How far out are we from this thing really really going to market? What would that market be? And then its use and utility. First of all, just to add on to what you said, I think Elon, when I asked about, was it harder than making Starship? And he said, no, that's a harder problem. So to put it in context, okay? So it's the second hardest thing that Elon's working on, I suppose, right now. Maybe AI is up there too. I'm not sure. The humanoid robot thing is really interesting. In my view, for the first time in human history, we're developing something that It can out-compete human labor eventually at all levels.

46:55We're going to be developing a system that can do absolutely everything better than a human can. It can be a craftsman at all times. There'll be no sloppy work. It'll be doing things perfection every single time. Not only that, it can work probably 22 to 23 hours a day. Yeah. So right there, you can compete against humans. Even if it was operating at one-third the speed, one robot could out-compete a human over a 24-hour period. Yeah. Right, because humans only work, let's say, eight hours a day or something like that. But over time, not only will it be as capable as a human, it'll probably become more capable.

47:29So the timeline's interesting because the robots that they have today actually are useful. They are already showing that they can do useful work. Even just picking up a box or something and moving it from point A to point B is useful work. There's a lot of people that do that all day in batteries and warehouses and stuff, sorting packages, all that kind of stuff. Yeah. The robots today can already do that. Now, maybe not as fast as a human, but again, they don't have to be as quick. Humans have all kinds of problems, right? We take breaks, we get tired, we make mistakes. Some people don't show up for work.

48:01Some people cause problems at work. They show up drunk or drugged. All those issues that you won't have with humanoid robots. So the timeline is kind of one of those things is at what point does Elon want to bring a robot to market? How productive or how capable does it need to be? Now, we were expecting earlier this year that by the end of this year, they would have made five to 10 ,000 robots, and that they'll be deployed within Tesla's own factories, and maybe their suppliers. They've stepped back from that because they've been redesigning the hand and so on. So the timeline has been pushed back a little bit.

48:31I think ultimately, we're going to have a far more capable robot. And so perhaps we start seeing some production in earnest in 2026. Elon has always said it typically takes three versions before you get a commercial ready robot. To me, this is a bit like iPhone, right? You come out with the first iPhone and the next one's that much better. And then iPhone 3 and it just keeps getting better and better and better. So I think there'll be actually pretty good demand for these robots as soon as they can really begin making them. And then an interesting thing happens is they become more capable, they become more valuable.

49:02So the amount of money that they can actually earn per robot will go up initially. Could be as much as$150 ,000 a year per bot in terms of revenue. And I've always said that they should do a robot as a service. Because if you sell a robot, you might be giving up a lot of upside as that bot becomes more capable. Now, I suppose that could always charge for the updates, right? If they sell a bot that does, you know,$5 an hour work, fine. You pay a certain price for that, it does$5 an hour work. But if you want the$10 an hour work, you're going to have to pay for the software update. To me, an easier method is just to provide robots as a service and you just, you know, pay for the capability of the bot on a per hour basis.

49:39Kind of like companies do today on for workers on a per hour basis. Let me just touch on Preston, something that's really interesting that's happening here. If you think about companies that have all these workers, yes, they're assets of the company, but they're not on the company's balance sheet anymore. There's no value of the employees as a workforce that shows up on the company's balance sheet. With the exception, perhaps, of a soccer or football club, where you pay for these players and you get to trade them and you get the money for the players. That doesn't work that way for employees with companies.

50:10But what happens is when you have a robot, you get to capitalize that labor for the first time. So think about what happens if you have a robot that makes$25 ,000 a year in profit and you use a PE multiple of 40. That's a million dollars in value. for every million robots that Tesla makes, that's a trillion dollars in new market cap, potentially. For whoever owns it, yeah. For Tesla, and then also for the companies that are using it, they, you know, they can - Oh, you're saying if they would, yeah, if they would rent it out, yeah. Yeah, right. So what we're seeing for the first time in human history is potentially the capitalization of labor.

50:46And I have said that optimists will become the vast majority, maybe 80 % of Tesla's market value at some point in the future, let's say by 2040, maybe even earlier. It's my understanding. Elon is in complete agreement with that. He has statements. Yeah, right? Yeah. Now, not to my own horn here, but I was saying this a year ago and Elon said it recently. Now, again, Elon's way ahead of me. He's not listening to me, but this is a very important point because market for labor in the world is about 50 % of world GDP. If we're going to turn a good portion of that into robotic labor, it will be capitalized and we're going to create market value out of thin air.

51:27This is why I think that Tesla has such an incredible opportunity, because if they can successfully make millions of robots, for every million that they make is a trillion dollars in market value. Elon, by the way, has talked about making billions of robots. And when you think about, too, what he's doing with SpaceX and going to the moon and going to Mars and potentially mining asteroids and all the other things, I think of space as kind of like a new continent. And so you're not going to send people, you're going to send the bots. Yeah. So the off planet uses for robots are just enormous. Yeah.

51:59Right. Totally. I want to tell people just some numbers on this so that they can kind of wrap their head around it. So this year they were shooting for 5 ,000 of these robots to be built. It looks like they hit a snag in the production line back in June. They were assembling a thousand units. And I guess they went back for a redesign on that. And so the numbers that are being tossed around now are maybe between 2 ,000 to 5 ,000 of these things made by the end of this year. Perhaps. Next year, by the end of 2026, they're shooting for 20 ,000 to 50 ,000 units produced. And then by 2027, over 100 ,000 units.

52:36Yeah. By 2030, they're looking at a million units a year being produced. Do you know how many, off the top of your head, how many cars they produce per year right now, just so people can kind of - Yeah, it's a little bit less than 2 million. And by the way, a robot, an Optimus robot weighs about 3 % of a Tesla Model 3. So let's say, for example, that for every car they made, they can make 10 robots, right? So even though it's 3 % of the weight, let's say it's 10 % of their production capacity. So for every car, 10 robots. So if they make a million robots, that's like making 100 ,000 cars. That's not difficult for Tesla to make 100 ,000 vehicles.

53:14Just to put in context, like a million of something sounds like a lot. Yeah. but that's equivalent to making another 100 ,000 cars. Or if they can make 20 robots for every car, that's like making 50 ,000 cars. They made that many Cybertrucks in the first year, and that's a very complex product to make. They're designing Optimist to be made very efficiently, very quickly, and maybe even by Optimist itself, the robots building the bots, right? And that'll be very interesting if they can do that. But the one thing that they're going to have a challenge with, at least in the early years, is scaling up the, you know, the supply chain for these things.

53:46You're building a new product from scratch. It could be a challenge. So in the early years, I think we should keep our expectation pretty low, but 10 years from now, they're going to be pumping out potentially a hundred million of these things a year. And is the use case going to the factories right out of the get-go? Is that the primary user from the beginning? I'm assuming it's not going into homes. Well, there are some other robot companies that are focused on the home first, and I think that's smart for them because they probably can't compete with Tesla on the factory side. Yeah. But eventually we're going to see them everywhere, everywhere where human labor is needed, where there's a shortage, there's a shortage in manufacturing right now.

54:21Also, we have a lot of humans that do jobs that are dirty, dangerous, really boring. Humans don't really want these jobs. Yeah. Look at the turnover that Walmart has. It's like 40 % a year. Yeah. Right. Stocking shelves and unloading trucks and moving stuff around. It's perfect work for robots. Yeah. Right. And so you don't have to fire anybody. It's just the natural attrition of these jobs. So I think these big companies will adopt these robots very quickly. But ultimately, there are a lot of people excited to have robots in the homes as caregivers for elderly, as cures for kids. Like my kids love robots.

54:57They would love to have one in the house that they could talk to and get the robot to pick up their toys and that kind of stuff. Right. So I think there'll be a big demand from all different corners. But the economic win is factories that run three shifts. Yeah. Because you can use these things, you know, 22, 23 hours a day. Good Lord. Right. And so a factory may be willing to pay a couple hundred thousand dollars a year for a robot. There are not many consumers that would be willing to pay that much initially. Yeah. Right. Over time, as they scale up production, the cost of these things will come way down and it'll become another consumer product.

55:31Yeah. CERN, I've thoroughly enjoyed this. We have to do this again in the future, maybe quarterly or something. But wow, you're just a breadth of knowledge on all of these different topics. I can't thank you enough for making time to come on and talk about this. If you want to give people a handoff to where they can follow you or learn more, what do you got? Yeah, just find me on X, my at CERN Basher, my first name and last name at CERN Basher. And that is my real name, by the way. I love it. Some people think that I'm a particle accelerator, you know, basher, but no, That's my real name. It's perfect for being in the tech space, sir.

56:06I suppose it is. All right. We'll have links to your X account and also your company there. Brilliant advice. And thank you, sir, for coming on the show. This was a really pleasant conversation. It was my pleasure, Preston. Thank you very much. Thank you for listening to TIP. Make sure to follow Infinite Tech on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on our episodes. To access our show notes and courses, go to theinvestorspodcast.com. This show is for entertainment purposes only. Before making any decisions, consult a professional. This show is copyrighted by the Investors Podcast Network.

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