A Fragile Cease-Fire Deal in Gaza

0:07Yesterday, after more than a year of devastating war in Gaza, a ceasefire was announced between Israel and Hamas.

0:19News of the deal prompted celebrations in the rubble-filled streets of Gaza and relief in Israel But the ceasefire isn't a done deal yet The agreement was announced by Hamas and by U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian negotiators But Israel hasn't officially approved it Israeli officials delayed a vote on the deal and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the agreement. A Hamas official told a news outlet that Netanyahu's accusation was, quote, baseless. The drama underscored how tenuous this historic deal is. So, we seem to have an agreement for a ceasefire, but do you think we really have an end to this war?

1:05That's a really good question. We have a pathway to the end to the war. That's what I would say. we had some sort of kind of ladder to pull us out of all of the mud that we're in at the moment, but we need to see if the players will decide to go through with it. Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Ryan Knudsen. It's Thursday, January 16th.

1:37Coming up on the show, a fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza.

2:23The planned deal between Israel and Hamas is set to go into effect on Sunday. It would proceed in three phases. The first phase is a temporary ceasefire. As part of this phase, 33 Israeli hostages will be exchanged for a number of Palestinian prisoners. During phase two, there will be a negotiation about a permanent end to the war and the release of any remaining living hostages. The third phase focuses on rebuilding Gaza. This deal has a lot of details, a lot of, you know, stumbling stones that the sides are going to reach pretty quickly. Not everything has been already worked out. That's our colleague, Anat Pellet, who's based in Tel Aviv.

3:04She's been covering the negotiations. How many hostages are left, and what do we know about the hostages that they say they'll be released? Yeah, so we have 94 hostages who were taken on October 7th who remain in Gaza, including over 30 that have been confirmed dead by Israel based on intelligence. We also have another four hostages from before October 7th included in Israel's count, and they're negotiating over them as well. So we have 98 total hostages. And so just to understand, there are 98 total hostages and roughly 30 of them are dead. Over 30, at least. We understand that that number is higher.

3:43Privately, Israeli and American officials believe that this number is much higher. But we're going to see a group of 33 hostages under the humanitarian category. So kind of the most vulnerable people. You know, we have injured elderly women and dead bodies. And so they're going to be coming out after 15 months of captivity. And is Israel going to release any Palestinian prisoners? Israel is going to release Palestinian prisoners. It has thousands of Palestinian prisoners in its prisons. It also detained thousands of prisoners from Gaza throughout the war and in the attack into Israel on October 7.

4:24And what about stage two, which sounds like possibly the most difficult stage, which is actually negotiating a permanent end to the war rather than just the temporary one? Yeah, stage two is going to be super tricky. So for many months, we've had a big problem. And that is that Israel has wanted to free its hostages, but has not wanted to end the war. And Hamas has said, we will not free the hostages unless you commit to ending the war. So an end to the fighting, permanent ceasefire has been a huge barrier in these negotiations. And that's kind of phase one lets us kind of ease into that. And the negotiations only start on day 16 of that.

5:06Phase two is going to be really tricky. We already have far right politicians in Israel who oppose going to phase two from the beginning. And they have threatened to quit the ruling coalition over that. I know that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been very insistent that, as have other Israeli politicians, that they want total victory over Hamas. So does this deal allow for Hamas to continue to exist? Yeah, that's a really good question. That's one of the biggest questions that remain open. And Israel set out to destroy Hamas as also a fighting and military power, but also as a ruling power.

5:44There is no alternative to it right now. Basically, you have a few options on the table that we hear from Israeli officials, which, you know, could be either Israel takes over as a military occupier. It could be that Hamas continues ruling or you have some, you know, the Palestinian authority coming in. The problem is that Israel has ruled out all three options. So Netanyahu and people close to him would say, you know, we can't propose any kind of alternative until Hamas is destroyed. And now, you know, would be that moment. Now we need to see what's going to happen.

6:22So you're in Tel Aviv. What's the reaction been like in Israel? So I think from my conversations with hostage families, there's a lot of anxiety in the air. People are afraid that they've been let down before, and they say that they will believe it when they see it. We also have opponents to the deal in Israel. So we have had some smaller protests, hundreds of people who opposed the deal and have taken to the streets, but it hasn't been very large numbers. But yeah, so I don't think you're seeing the same images of celebrations as you're seeing coming out of Gaza. It's a bit different here. What are you seeing in Gaza right now?

6:59So the Gaza enclave has been through just a devastating air campaign, a land invasion. Parts of the Strip have been just decimated. There's just, you know, in Jabalia, we've seen photos where it's just rubble. So we've seen just celebrations, like people just so happy that this is coming through, waiting for this for so long.

7:28Coming up. Why a deal came together now, and can it last?

7:45For months, Israel and Hamas had failed to reach a ceasefire deal. And many blamed the leaders of the two sides. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar. These two men have been tough negotiators, kind of going head to head, not agreeing. At certain points, it seemed close. You know, we thought that we were going to reach a deal. And, you know, sometimes it was, you know, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu just insisting on certain things. And, you know, sometimes we would hear from mediators and Israeli negotiators that he was sabotaging a deal. Other times, Hamas would make very difficult demands, or Senwar would go quiet.

8:28We've had all kinds of barriers. But since then, a lot has changed. In October, Israeli forces killed Senwar, weakening Hamas. And Israel also scored major victories against Hamas' allies, like Hezbollah and Lebanon. So you have all these moments that kind of came together and weakened Hamas. And that made Hamas, I think, understand that it had to make some serious concessions in the negotiations. And then we had another factor that was very important, and I would say that's the Trump effect. The Trump effect is basically the fact that Trump was able to put more pressure on both sides, on Hamas, but also very importantly on Israel, on Netanyahu.

9:11And basically, we saw that Trump said very publicly, he gave a deadline. He said, I want this deal done by January 20th when I take office or all hell will break loose. If those hostages aren't back, I don't want to hurt your negotiation. If they're not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East. And it will not be good for Hamas. And it will not be good, frankly, for anyone. All hell will break out. Now, people don't know exactly what the all hell will break loose means when you actually ask them. But the fact that he said this very publicly, I think, really put new energy into the negotiations and made them get through the finish line.

9:54And also, President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Wyckoff, played a role in these negotiations. How is he able to be involved if Trump still hasn't taken office yet? Yeah, so the Biden administration worked closely with Trump people in these negotiations. So a real estate mogul turned Middle East envoy, Steve Wyckoff, met with Netanyahu on Saturday. He made it very clear that he wanted to get this done. What I have heard from his meetings between him and hostage families is that they got the impression he was very serious, wanted to get this done. So he really brought new energy that kind of helped this get it through.

10:33During a press conference on Wednesday, a reporter asked Biden whether he or Trump could take credit for reaching this deal. Thank you. Who books credit for this, Mr. President? You or Trump? Is that a joke? Oh, thank you. So Trump has also taken credit for this deal on Truth Social. Biden clearly seems to disagree with that. But does Trump actually deserve some credit here? It's a really tough question because I think the Biden administration has been in the thick of this for so many months. And it's been grueling negotiations that have seemed impossible many times. So I think the Biden administration does deserve a lot of credit.

11:15But Trump's pressure, his deadline, the fact that he was able to pressure Israel more effectively and also Hamas, I think, helped get it done. So this deal was agreed to and announced on Wednesday, but the drama isn't quite over yet. Can you describe what's happened since this announcement was made? Yeah, the journey isn't quite over. So at this moment, we have the U.S., Qatar, Egypt and Hamas announcing that they have reached an agreement for a ceasefire. Israel has not yet announced that. So what is happening is that Netanyahu has not presented the public yet with a ceasefire, made an argument for it.

11:58And it still needs to pass two votes. So one in the security cabinet and then the government. And there needs to be another period of around 24 hours for people to petition against it to the Supreme Court. and then it can go into effect. But so far, we haven't had a vote yet. So this is causing a lot of anxiety, I would say. Why is Israel delaying? What's the holdup? So we are hearing that there are some problems in the negotiating room about details. So for example, from Hamas's side, bringing up names of high profile political prisoners that they want released from the Israeli side saying that they want to maintain forces in certain areas in Gaza.

12:38we still do think it could be resolved. We're kind of just following all the political things that are happening right now around us. Today, Netanyahu's office said in a statement that negotiations were continuing and that a deal would be announced once they were complete. Arab mediators said they were working to resolve the remaining issues, including a disagreement over which Palestinian prisoners Israel would release. What does this deal mean for the future of the people in Gaza? Yeah, I think this is a huge moment for the people of Gaza. They've dreamed of this. They've just been waiting for this.

13:15I think just joy, first reaction. And then I think it's going to be the start of a whole new journey, search for answers. So, you know, there's a lot of people missing in Gaza. So people are going to be looking through the rubble, finding loved ones. They're going to be going back to search for their homes, many of them which no longer exist. So I think, yeah, the reconstruction of the Strip is a huge question, only going to come at phase three of the deal. But I think that there's just, it's the end to really a devastating military campaign. So what are your biggest questions as we head into this ceasefire?

14:00I think the biggest question is, will the ceasefire go past phase one? Phase one is already a huge achievement. The only kind of comparable thing we've seen is a ceasefire in November 2023, which lasted a week, fell apart when both sides accused each other of breaking the terms. saw a release of, you know, over 100 hostages and many Palestinian prisoners. And now we have a longer period. But there is concern that, you know, maybe Netanyahu or maybe Israel is not interested in going past the first stage. I know hostage families are worried about that. And yes, I think that that's a big question for me.

15:00That's all for today. Thursday, January 16th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Rory Jones, Summer Saeed, Jared Malson, and Shandi Rice. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.