Assad's Regime Falls. What's Next For Syria?

0:13Yesterday, in Syria, after nearly 13 years of civil war, rebel forces took control of the capital, Damascuses. For decades, the country had been under the dictatorship of the Assad family.

0:29Here's our chief foreign affairs correspondent, Yaroslav Trofimov. Well, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed in a matter of days, in a stunning collapse of a system that was built on murder, torture, brutality, and repression that had few parallels in the modern world. So really, this closes the chapter on some of the darkest periods in the history of the Middle East. Footage showed Syrians celebrating in the streets, prisoners walking out of confinement, and residents standing on a toppled statue of Assad's father.

1:12At the same time, it remains unknown how the fall of Assad could reverberate across the Middle East and the world.

1:25What are the big questions you have today about the future of Syria? Well, the question is obviously, what next? There are two ways it can end. It can either end in a relative peace with the rebels agreeing to basically cooperate and avoiding another round of civil war, or they could go at each other again and plunge the country into a new round of disaster.

1:50Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, December 9th.

2:04Coming up on the show, a historic moment for Syria and a realignment of power in the Middle East.

2:25The largest of the rebel groups that stormed the Syrian capital over the weekend is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, also known as HTS. The group's leader is Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. When did you first encounter the name Abu Muhammad al-Jolani? He became reasonably well-known about 10 years ago when he was leading an affiliate of al-Qaeda called the Nusra Front. As a young man, in 2003, he borrowed a bus from Damascus to Baghdad and became an insurgent against American forces in Iraq at the time. There he joined the nascent Islamic State. Jolani later returned to his homeland, Syria, with the blessing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

3:16Jolani's mission was to establish ISIS there. But then once in Syria, he broke with al-Baghdadi because he didn't share some of his murderous ideas, such as the need to slaughter all the Shiites. And so he decided to move to a slightly more moderate al-Qaeda. I see. Okay. Then he traveled further and further along the road to moderation. And in doing so, he rejected the basic principle of al-Qaeda and Islamic State that, you know, the big fight is the fight for a global Islamic caliphate and against America in the West. So at the time, he made headlines by saying, look, our fight is in Syria for Syria and we don't care about America.

4:01America is not our enemy. Got it. So just to make sure we have the timeline clear, he started out with Islamic State. He broke with them and then joined Al-Qaeda. And then he broke with Al-Qaeda as well. And so— Correct. And the reason for that is because he just became increasingly moderate in his politics? Well, he became more moderate in his politics, but also the main reason is that he wanted to focus on Syria and fighting the Assad regime in Syria. He wasn't interested in al-Qaeda's or the Islamic State's global ideology, the idea of conquering the West, blowing up civilian targets in European cities.

4:42That was not his fight. During the civil war that started in 2011, Jolani's group fought against ISIS and al-Qaeda. But it's unclear if Jolani's turn to moderation is genuine or if he's trying to appease other Syrians and the West as he pursues power. Jelani remains on a U.S. terrorist list, along with his organization, HTS. The militant leader has said his focus was Syria and fighting the Assad regime. We saw some of the most horrific violence in recent history, with hundreds of thousands of people killed, millions having to flee the country. Bashar al-Assad's regime used chemical weapons against the civilians, barrel bombs thrown at hospitals, schools, mass displacement, and violence that then gave rise to some of the most horrific Islamist terrorism.

5:33Since 2016, the civil war had been at a standstill, with Assad's government holding on to power, mainly through the support of two key allies, Russia and Iran. Syria holds strategic value. It's a land bridge that links Iran to Hezbollah, the militant group in Lebanon. And Russia has important military bases in Syria, which gives it access to the region. But recently, both Russia and Iran have been embroiled in other conflicts. These two pillars of the regime were no longer there. Because on one hand, Russia was distracted by the war in Ukraine. It had to pull out its troops. And then Hezbollah was decimated in the last several months by the war with Israel, in which pretty much the entire leadership of the organization was killed by Israeli airstrikes.

6:23And then the surviving fighters had to come back to Lebanon from Syria because they were facing an Israeli ground invasion. So basically, Assad's biggest international backers, Iran and Russia, are distracted. They have wars that they have to deal with elsewhere. They're not just distracted. They were weakened and no longer had the ability, even if they wanted to come back and help him. You know, Russia didn't have any planes or troops to spare. I mean, they cannot expel Ukraine troops from Russian territory since August. And Hezbollah is just a shadow of its form itself. It's unable to help itself in Lebanon, let alone go to a foreign country to help Assad.

7:06So how did Jelani and the rebels take advantage of that? Well, the rebels had a new plan. Their initial plan was to just push back the front line and to regain some of the countryside near Aleppo. But as they started pushing, they realized that the Syrian army was unable to hold the line. And it was basically like a knife through butter. In a matter of days, the rebels took Aleppo. Then they turned south, taking more territory, the city of Hama, then Homs. And finally, they marched on the capital, Damascus. And so they're basically advancing as fast as their trucks could drive. Wow. Why didn't Assad have the military might to hold off the rebels on his own?

7:52I mean, he'd been in power for so long. Well, you know, it was a terrible regime that was unpopular. I mean, it was extremely corrupt. So people who were in his military were forcefully recruited. And let's remember that he was increasingly seen as representing just the Alawite minority, which is only about 10 percent of the population. Whereas the rebels come from the Sunni Arab majority. Right, right. Well, then basically it was the same scenario we have seen in other situations. These regimes crumble very quickly once it becomes clear that nobody wants to fight for them. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy because once commanders see that other commanders are surrendering and that the other cities are falling, they all make calculations.

8:44Why would I die for a doomed cause? So at the end of the day, nobody wanted to die for him. Even as it became clear that his forces were getting hollowed out, Assad stood firm. He announced he would give an address to the nation on Saturday. But it never happened. What we know is that he left Damascus either late on Saturday evening, on the first early hours of Sunday morning, likely to a Russian military base, and then from then on to Russia itself. And we have heard from the Russian presidential spokesman that President Putin himself had authorized his asylum in Russia.

9:30And now, Assad's fall has created a new power dynamic in the Middle East, with winners and losers. That's next.

9:51Over the weekend, a group of rebels appeared on Syrian state television.

10:02In an address, they called for a newly liberated country. They said, quote,

10:13What happens to Syria now? Like, what indications do we have about how the rebels might govern? The indications of them governing are positive so far. I mean, they named a moderate politician as a figurehead prime minister. So Jawlani himself is not taking the reins of power. And the edicts they issued are, you know, maintain tolerance, but not force women to wear the hijab head covering, respect minorities. But it's still very, very early days. Can the alliance between the rebel groups hold now that Assad is gone? Well, that is certainly what Syrians expect. and I think after 13 years of civil war, there was a lot of pressure to avoid further bloodshed.

11:01But let's also not forget that the whole reason why Syria descended into the civil war is because outside powers were all backing their own rival factions and really fighting their own proxy wars in Syria. And these outside powers like Turkey, like Saudi Arabia, like Iran, like Russia, like Israel, are still, to one extent or another, are still going to be interested in what happens in Syria. So I want to talk more about those outside powers. I kind of want to do a winners and losers in geopolitics with you, like a lightning round. So Russia, winner or loser in this, and why? Russia is definitely a loser.

11:41Russian officials, Putin himself, love to say that, unlike America, Russia can be relied upon. America abandons its allies in Afghanistan. and look what happened in Vietnam, whereas Russia will do anything to preserve its clients, its vassals, and it's going to war to make sure that Assad doesn't fall. Well, Assad has fallen, and Russia didn't come to bail him out. And so this really punctures the myth of Russia being a reliable ally and a partner. And Iran? Iran is the biggest loser because Iran, unlike Russia, doesn't have any ties to anyone in government in Syria now. The Iranian embassy was ransacked.

12:22The Russian was not. And Iran now loses the land bridge that was so crucial for its ability to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon. What about Turkey? Like, Turkey is a supporter of Jaulani and the HTS. Is Turkey a winner or a loser? It's a major strategic victory for Turkey because the rebels in power in Damascus now are at least friendly to Turkey, if not directly assisted by Turkey. and it expands Turkey's authorities throughout the Middle East. And then there's Israel. So in the last 24 hours, Israel pushed into the Golan Heights, which is the demilitarized zone on their border with Syria. What's at stake for Israel?

13:04Well, Israel, you know, they lost the devil they know and they're getting the devil they don't know. They don't know if the devil they don't know is worse or better. Obviously, the Islamists in charge in Syria also sympathize with the Palestinians, sympathize with Hamas, and are no friends of Israel. But does this mean they will actually take action against Israel? Will they allow attacks against Israel from Syria? So it's all one of these many questions. And one of the reasons why Israel in recent hours has expanded its occupation zone in the Golan Heights and has been launching airstrike after airstrike to basically take out all the heavy weapons that the Syrian rebels will inherit from the regime.

13:50The U.S. says it will continue to support the Syrian people. The military keeps a force of around 900 troops in southeast Syria to defend against ISIS fighters. And on Sunday, President Biden launched airstrikes on ISIS targets in Syria. He said they were intended to ensure that ISIS does not take advantage of the power vacuum. We will engage with all Syrian groups, including within the process led by the United Nations, to establish a transition away from the Assad regime toward independent, sovereign, an independent, independent, I might not say it again, sovereign Syria, with a new constitution, a new government that serves all Syrians.

14:30And this process will be determined by the Syrian people themselves. Over the weekend, President-elect Trump posted on social media, quote,

14:43And so in broad terms, how does the fall of Assad change the map of power globally? Well, globally, we're seeing that the axis of Russia-Iran, that is also allied with China and North Korea, has suffered a setback. It shows that this axis is not always winning and it can be defeated. So what are the best and the worst case scenarios for Syria going forward? I think, well, the best case scenario, there's liberal democracy in Syria, but it's also not a very realistic scenario at this stage. I think the more realistic scenario to which a lot of Syria's neighbors and Western countries aspire is a peaceful Syria that will have an Islamist-led but more or less tolerant authoritarian regime along the lengths of many other such regimes in the Middle East that will be at peace and that will allow the millions of Syrian refugees to come back from Europe and Turkey and other countries and that will not be embroiled in wars with its neighbors such as Israel.

15:50And the worst-case scenario? Well, the worst case scenario is a renewed civil war and the return of the most violent and extremist movements. We have seen in the region a new incarnation of the Islamic State, which is still lurking in part of the Syrian desert, and Syria's return to being an epicenter of global terrorism. What about for average Syrians? You know, what does this change in power mean for the people in Syria who've seen years of war and oppression? Well, I think for average Syrians living, who used to live in regime-controlled areas, this is really, for the first time in their lifetime, a moment of freedom.

16:32I mean, as much as we can focus on all the troubles that Syria can face in the future, I mean, this is a historical moment. This is a moment where one of the worst regimes on earth has fallen and people no longer have to be as afraid as they used to be their entire life.

17:03That's all for today, Monday, December 9th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from Isabel Coles, Stephen Kalin, Jared Molson, and Summer Saeed. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.