How Iran's Regime Changed...for the Worse

0:05When the U.S. and Israel began their war with Iran, one of the main goals appeared to be regime change. And the campaign began with a high-profile assassination. Iranian state media has confirmed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been killed in his compound. This may change the game completely for Iran, change the region.

0:30Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old supreme leader, Iran's highest political and religious authority, was dead. That strike also wiped out many in his inner circle. And over the following weeks, other top Iranian officials were also killed. Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, has been killed. Commander Golem Reza Soleimani killed. This is the spokesperson for the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. And this is now the fourth major target. So one of the assumptions of the war was that by killing senior Iranian officials, that could pave the way for the collapse of the regime so that people would rise up and overthrow their leaders.

1:17When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

1:31Has regime change happened in the way that the U.S. and Israel hoped it would? Absolutely not. In fact, what we have seen is a hardening of Iran's leadership. That's her colleague Margarita Stenkadi. The more extreme elements of the Revolutionary Guards and hardliners in the political system are now much more firmly in control than they were before the war. There has been a change in the regime. and it's been for the worse. Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Ryan Knudsen. It's Monday, April 20th.

2:16Coming up on the show, how attempts to push out the Iranian regime backfired.

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3:36The Iranian regime has been a thorn in the U.S.'s side, practically since its formation, almost 50 years ago. The Islamic Republic, from its inception, was poised to oppose the U.S. It started with the hostage crisis in 1979. Some 60 Americans, including our fellow citizen, whom you just saw, bound and blindfolded, are now beginning their sixth day of captivity inside the U.S. embassy in Tehran. And a key part of the republic's ideology was this anti-Americanism. And especially Iran's hardliners, they are anti-Western ideologues. As far as Iran goes, this is the single biggest state sponsor of terrorism in the world.

4:25There has also been this fear, and for Israel it's an existential fear, that Iran could develop a nuclear bomb. And once that happens, it becomes very difficult to do anything about the regime. First of all, it would give the Iranian government enormous power, much more leeway, and it would be incredibly difficult to stop. Earlier this year, the U.S. and Israel sensed that the Iranian regime was weak. After a massive popular uprising and a series of Israeli attacks that left Iran's proxies weakened, they decided to strike by taking aim at the country's leadership.

5:05Iran's form of government is essentially a theocracy, and the ultimate authority lies within the supreme leader. It's a system known as the Velayat-i-Fakih. The supreme leader has the ultimate political as well as religious authority. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in that strike at the start of the war. And to replace him, the country's religious clergy held a vote. The person they chose was Khamenei's son, Mushtaba Khamenei, who before the war wasn't necessarily considered a leading contender for the job. Some analysts say that, you know, had there not been a war, the selection of Mushtaba Khamenei would have been a lot less likely.

5:47But because his father had been killed, because he was injured, because there was war, it meant that there was more momentum behind him that choosing him sent a message of continuity and defiance from the political leadership. So what do we know about Mushtaba Khamenei? So the short answer is that we know very little. He has not appeared in public since he was selected, nor have we seen a photo of him, nor has the government shared even an audio message from him. He hasn't been seen in public. Are we sure that he's alive? We are not sure he's even alive. I mean, we know from sources that he was, and from what U.S.

6:34officials are saying, that he was likely injured. There is speculation that he was so badly injured, he might not even be involved in the day-to-day running of the country. But the people who are representing Iran in his absence very much reflect his political orientation and who are close to his ideological position. Iran's state propaganda machine has published posters and videos of Mushtaba using old images, and he's given written statements that are read by Iranian news anchors. Even before the war, Mushtaba largely stayed out of the spotlight, but he wielded considerable power behind the scenes.

7:13He played a key role in the office of the supreme leader, the organization around the supreme leader, which is really at the heart of Iran's political and security authority. And in that role, he helped promote his allies and promote hardliners in various security and political positions. For example, one of the first times he kind of showed his political cards was in the early 2000s when he had a say in appointing a very conservative official to lead Iran's influential state propaganda organization. Another key moment came in 2009, when Iran's hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was running for re-election against more moderate candidates.

8:00Mushtaba used his influence to help swing the vote. And we know that because at the time, reformist politicians openly complained about what they said was like election meddling by Mushtaba Khamenei and his role in kind of mobilizing the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia in support of Ahmadinejad. And that was really a key turning point in Iran's political history. It kind of tipped the country away from popular reformist politicians and lived it firmly on a more conservative path. Beyond Mushtaba, other key figures in Iranian leadership installed since the start of the war also seemed to be more radical.

8:44Iran's new national security chief is someone called Mohammed Bagir Zolghadra. He's a former Revolutionary Guard commander and has a very violent background. He was, before the revolution, he was basically an assassin who was personally involved in the assassination of policemen as well as of an American engineer. He was considered so extreme even by his own peers who thought he was like too radical even for them. Zohader replaced Ali Larijani, who was a political operator. He was someone who built a reputation as a pragmatic negotiator during nuclear talks. He was a diplomat. There's also a new head of the highly influential Revolutionary Guard Corps.

9:32Ahmad Vahidi, he's the new chief of the Revolutionary Guard. He's accused of participating in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Argentina, in Buenos Aires. He's currently still wanted in Argentina. He played a role as interior minister in cracking down protests in 2022. These are just some of the people who have been elevated during the war.

9:59I mean, it seems like this war has only made Iran's leadership more extreme than it was before. Absolutely. So, I mean, war hardens moderates and allows hardliners to rise faster, and that's exactly what's happening. What we're seeing is that the void is being filled by leaders who, in most cases, are more radical than the people who have replaced. And by more radical, we mean that they are, you know, staunchly anti-American and have no tolerance for domestic descent. And many of them are kind of guided by this kind of apocalyptic military ideology. Apocalyptic military ideology? Can you say more about what that means?

10:42Yeah. So many of Iran's leaders believe in something called the cult of Mahdism, which is an ancient messianic Islamist doctrine. There is this figure in Shia Islam called the Imam Mahdi, the 12th Imam, who many Shia Muslims believe will bring peace and justice to the world. Part of this belief is that war indicates the return of the Mahdi. This ideology has always existed. We're just seeing proponents of the ideology becoming much more outspoken and much more close to the center of power. coming up how iran's new leaders are approaching negotiations with the u.s

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12:37How do you see these new leaders running Iran? In what ways are their hardline approaches showing up in their posture towards the U.S. and Israel? So, you know, the leaders who are presenting Iran at the moment, they remain defiant in the face of the war. Iran is sending the message that they think they've won, right? that the war actually has been in their favor, you know, despite these kind of devastating losses to Iran's military capabilities and infrastructure, the war has also showed that they have cards to play, that they were able to basically hold the world economy hostage. And that has energized many elements within the Iranian government.

13:24And I think the fact that they found this new leverage in the Strait of Hormuz has further added to this sense of confidence. Over the weekend, Iran continued to flex that leverage. As of this afternoon, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran shot at two ships bearing Indian flags. And the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship, prompting threats from Iran that it'll retaliate. Meanwhile, there are plans for peace talks to resume in Pakistan tomorrow. Trump says the two-week ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday night, and that an extension is highly unlikely. according to a White House official.

14:07The regime has taken this very defiant, very confident stance in its posture toward negotiating with the U.S. But what kind of pressure is it under internally and externally to reach a deal? Yes, although it's, you know, sending this message of confidence and defiance, you know, they have to come to terms with very severe wartime losses that have caused devastating damage, not just to their military capabilities, but also to their industry and their economy. Airstrikes have decimated key industries in Iran, from steel to petrochemicals to pharmaceuticals. It's estimated it'll take years and billions of dollars to rebuild the country.

14:48So I think this is what ultimately is putting Iranian leaders, you know, regardless of how radical they are, under economic pressure to reach a deal. And I think that is something that the U.S. and Iranian negotiators have in common, in understanding that the consequences of the war go beyond where this war is being waged, and it has consequences for the world economy, dire consequences for the world economy. Meanwhile, the regime is continuing to crack down hard on internal dissent within Iran. The crackdown against any hint of domestic opposition has intensified. We've seen arrests, executions, and explicit threats against would-be protesters, saying that, you know, they could be killed if they take to the streets.

15:37The Trump administration has acknowledged that the new leadership is likely here to stay. In a post to Truth Social at the end of March, President Trump said, quote, the United States of America is in serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran. Great progress has been made. And during a press briefing a week later, Trump appeared to let go of any hope that the Iranian regime would be overthrown by its people. What would be your reaction if the Iranian people rise up against their regime during a case fire, Mr. President? Well, they should do it, but again, the consequences are great.

16:17I mean, they were told, if you protest, you will be shot immediately.

16:24I think we're much further away from the goal of regime change in the war before the war. Certainly from the possibility of the regime voluntarily changing from within or becoming more accommodating both to domestic opposition and to the rest of the world. So I think the willingness of the regime to compromise domestically and internationally is a lot less than it was before. This is sort of incredible. You know, the U.S. and Israel's goal was to change Iran, but it seems like it's changed Iran in ways that it did not intend. No, absolutely. And, you know, there's no historical precedent of an air bombing campaign leading to regime change.

17:06So the war had other aims, but a very clear early aim was to create the regime change, but this was based on a strategy that had never been tested before. You know, for opponents of the regime, what's happening right now is almost like the realization of their worst nightmare, seeing a country where the Revolutionary Guard plays an even more dominant role and where the supreme leader, who will rule for life, by the way, is younger and more radical than his father.

17:52That's all for today. Monday, April 20th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Benoit Falcone and Hena Mousavi.

18:06Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.

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