Iran Retaliates After U.S. Strike. How Could This End?

0:09— And Ian, we're now hearing from the Qatari Defense Ministry. They say that the Qatari air defenses successfully intercepted a missile attack targeting Al-Udid airbase. Again, that is the largest U.S. airbase in the Middle East. Today, Iran launched missiles targeting an American military base in Qatar. Officials said Iran also fired on Iraq. The strikes were in response to U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, in support of Israel's war against Iran. How big of a deal was this U.S. strike? It was massive. It is the first time that the United States and Israel have coordinated on a military operation.

0:52That's never happened before. So that alone, I think, is a pretty huge deal. That's our colleague Shandy Race, the Journal's deputy bureau chief for the Middle East. This was a massive show of U.S. force and military power. This was something that only the United States could do. There's no other country in the world, including Israel, that has the capability to drop the kind of bombs on Iran that the United States dropped.

1:23And so it shows a very coordinated U.S. and Israel relationship and sends a very strong message not only to Iran, but the other players in the region that U.S. and Israeli force is dominant. President Trump claimed the Fordow site and other key nuclear facilities were, quote, completely and totally obliterated. The UN's Atomic Energy Agency says the damage at Fordow was expected to be very significant, though the extent of the destruction at the underground facility is hard to determine. Still, it's become clear that the strikes have pushed Iran into a corner. Iran was not built to engage in this kind of warfare.

2:05It never envisioned the idea of a direct military confrontation between Israel versus Iran. It doesn't have the missile capabilities and it doesn't have the air defense capabilities to be able to go head to head with Israel. So Iran really is in a very difficult position.

2:26Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, June 23rd.

2:39Coming up on the show, Iran's options are narrowing. Where does it go from here?

3:00The recent conflict between Israel and Iran traces back to October 7th. when Hamas, an Iranian ally, launched a deadly attack on Israel. Since then, Israel has conducted bold operations against Iran's proxies in the region. Proxies that include not just Hamas and Gaza, but also Hezbollah and Lebanon. Both groups have since been severely diminished. At the same time, Israel also wiped out many of Iran's aerial defenses, giving Israel more control of the skies. Iran is as vulnerable as it could possibly be, And it just was never prepared for this kind of situation. And that's why they crafted this whole other way of confronting Israel.

3:40And it's failed. Earlier this month, Israel capitalized on Iran's vulnerability by launching a wave of airstrikes on Iranian soil, targeting its nuclear facilities and killing several top military leaders and nuclear scientists. What's been pretty undeniable is that Israel's attack on Iran has been a massive military success. And once that success became clear, President Trump became more enthusiastic about the possibility of seriously degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities. And that obviously culminated with a strike that was late Saturday night by the United States against Iran's major nuclear facilities.

4:28We have breaking news now out of the Middle East. President Trump announced the U.S. has attacked three nuclear sites in Iran. Last night on the president's orders, U.S. Central Command, under the command of General Eric Carilla, executed Operation Midnight Hammer. A short time ago, the U.S. military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime, Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. What was the broader U.S. goal in hitting these sites, and specifically Fordow? What did the U.S. say was sort of the idea behind this move? The idea behind this was very simply to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

5:12It was to destroy Iran's nuclear program or at least set it back for years. And Forda was the most significant site because it was the most difficult to destroy. And because the United States is the only country in the world that had the weapons that have even a shot of destroying it, it's built into a mountain. And so no other country has the weapons to destroy it. So in order to do that, and in order for the U.S. and Israel to say, we have really set back the Iranian program, set it back, destroyed it, either one, to be able to say that there's been an actual accomplishment here, the United States had to hit it.

5:52And how successful was the U.S. mission? That is something we simply do not know yet. President Trump has said that Forda was obliterated. There were also two other nuclear sites that the U.S. hit, Natanz and Isfahan. The reality is that nobody actually knows at this point. There has been no battle damage assessment yet, as far as we know. There are some signs, but really too early to tell, other than the Trump administration saying that the site was obliterated. You know, even the Israelis have been quiet on what they think was achieved there. Iranian state media played down the severity of the damage to Fordow, saying the U.S.

6:35strike only damaged the entrance tunnel. State media also said that important equipment was moved to a new location prior to the strike. U.S. officials have suggested the strike was a one-time intervention. And President Trump seemed to try to walk the U.S. back from further engagement, saying on social media, quote, now is the time for peace. I would say at the end of the day, he's not really the one that gets to decide. As they say, the enemy has a say in all of it. And so Iran is going to have a say. And as much as President Trump wants Iran to come to the table, Iran is in a very difficult position where if it caves right now without any sort of military response, it looks very weak both domestically and also to its proxies who still are allied with them.

7:24So, you know, there is pressure on the regime to save face here.

7:33What does that look like for Iran? What are its options? the easiest way that Iran has out of this and also the least likely thing to happen is for Iran to just come to the table and say, yep, we're willing to sign whatever you want, US and Israel. Like, just, you know, let's come to the table. Let's hash this out. We will agree to end uranium enrichment, which is key to producing a nuclear weapon. We're going to agree to limits on other munitions and we'll do, you know, we'll basically do what you want. We'll sign a deal and everybody will go home and we can end this fighting. So that's the easiest end.

8:09And it's also the end that people think is the least likely. Since the attack, Iran's foreign minister signaled that diplomacy has proven useless. The Trump administration, he said, only understands, quote, the language of threat and force. And this is very unfortunate. So if going back to the negotiating table isn't realistic, what else could Iran do? So this is a very delicate balancing act that these countries have done before. And it's very dangerous because you don't know what is that perfect line between inflicting some damage that's symbolic to be able to say, we responded, but not too much damage that makes your enemy say, well, now we have to respond.

8:52It's an approach that has worked in the past, like in 2020, when the U.S. assassinated a top Iranian general. What Iran did in response was they did attack some U.S. bases, but there was no damage, or at least there was no, nobody was actually killed. And President Trump played it down and it ended there. So there's some kind of response that they can make that would allow them to save face but not escalate. But it's such a dangerous line because you really don't know where that line is. And obviously you always risk that you do kill someone or you kill more people than you mean to. or, you know, it's just not, it's not science by any means.

9:30It's unclear if Iran's strikes against U.S. bases today will lead to a larger conflict. So far, the missiles have been intercepted and there have been no reported casualties. But Iran could also respond in a way that would ratchet things up even further. They could just go full bore, just full-on war against the U.S. and the region. That's after the break.

10:04Now, you mentioned sort of this delicate balancing act in terms of what Iran could do to retaliate in a way that wouldn't lead to further escalation. Could you talk about what Iran could do that could escalate this conflict further and maybe force an even bigger U.S. response? Oh, sure. That's really clear. They could just start hitting U.S. military bases. You know, there are military bases throughout the region. Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia. They could attack Gulf assets. They don't need to hit the U.S. homeland. There's plenty of targets in the Middle East for them to hit and, you know, kill U.S.

10:44forces. And if they kill U.S. forces or attack U.S. embassies in the region, other U.S. assets or close U.S. allies, then you've got a regional war. Then you've got a real escalation. And Trump has been pretty clear that he's going to respond very forcefully to Iran if they go that route. Short of a direct military assault on American bases or embassies, Iran could try economic warfare. specifically by choking off global access to a key trade waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. The strait connects the oil-rich nations of the region to the rest of the world. It's a vital channel for more than a fifth of the world's oil supply.

11:25And so it's absolutely key to the shipment of oil and the continuation of steady oil prices. If that were to shut down, there would be a real constraint on the oil supply, which would cause oil prices to rise. and that's something that would have a global impact and would probably hit the stock market. And so that's something that, you know, would very clearly get the attention of President Trump. After Iran's missile attack on U.S. military bases, oil futures fell by more than 6%. In a Truth Social post, Trump said, quote, Everyone keep oil prices down. I'm watching. You're playing into the hands of the enemy.

12:04Don't do it.

12:10Another possibility that's floating around is that the U.S. and Israel could go further and topple the Iranian government. Is that on the table? Well, it's a great question. And it's really hard to actually know whether the Israelis or the Americans are serious about regime change. And what we hear is that this is mostly being used as a threat to Iran, that the longer you drag this out, the weaker your regime is going to be. And so come to the table sooner rather than later if you want to save yourselves. President Trump posted something very interesting. He said that regime change has been politically incorrect, but if Iran doesn't come to the table, then it may be necessary.

12:58And so that actually sounds very much to me like a pressure tactic. If you read that closely, it's definitely something that the Israelis and the Americans are holding over Iran's head and trying to use as a pressure tactic to say, listen, if If you don't come to the table now, you are going to risk the complete collapse of your regime. Shady, now we've seen Iran's response. They launched these missiles at U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq. Is there a possibility this could escalate further? So when I was talking earlier about the symbolic response, this is what I was talking about. So far, the information that we have is that Iran launched ballistic missiles at Qatar, but they did it perhaps in coordination with Qatar.

13:45The U.S. knew that this was coming, and there were no casualties. And that's the really important point here, is that the United States can safely walk away now from this fight. They don't need to escalate. Because of that, the U.S. really has the opportunity now to kind of walk away and say, okay, we're out of this fight. They do not need to retaliate. And it paves the way for an end to the war. It does mean that this goes back to being an Israeli and Iranian conflict. This definitely allows Iran to say that they have retaliated. They can tell their own people that they've responded, that they've been successful, while at the same time making sure that this won't escalate out of control.

14:32The The message they're sending with this response is that they do not want to escalate. They do not want to go into a major war with the United States. I think it's an existential moment for the Islamic Republic, for the regime. It is definitely a moment of reckoning for Iran. I think it has exposed them as a bit of a paper tiger without their proxies. They're really not able to defend themselves, let alone cause significant damage to another country. And so I don't know, though, how this will all shake out in the end. Iran has been sort of kicked off their pedestal. And the question is, what do they do in response?

15:12So Iran has a lot of it definitely is in a moment of real change. It's at a real crossroads in terms of where its future is going to be.

15:34That's all for today, Monday, June 23rd. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode from Sudarshan Raghavan.

15:49Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.