Israel Wants "Decisive Victory" in Iran. Is It Succeeding?

0:10Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a speech where he talked about the war with Iran.

0:22Netanyahu connected the war to today's Passover holiday. He compared Israel's attacks on Iran to the story of the plagues from the Book of Exodus.

0:39In scripture, he said, the Egyptian pharaoh continued to harm the people of Israel despite the plagues. And today, he said, the story of the war with Iran is no different. Quote, the campaign is not yet over.

0:57When that campaign started, Israel had three stated goals in Iran. One was to reduce Iran's ballistic missile capability. The second was to reduce Iran's nuclear capability. And the third was to facilitate the conditions for regime change in Iran. That means to facilitate the ability of Iranians themselves to topple their government. That's our colleague Dov Lieber. He covers Israel for The Wall Street Journal. And at the time, how achievable did these goals seem? Two of those goals were more achievable, namely reducing Iran's ballistic missile capability and its nuclear capability. But the last goal, regime change.

1:48This was by far the hardest goal, in some ways a type of moonshot for the Israelis. For decades, Israel has seen the Islamic Republic of Iran as an existential threat, an enemy it has clashed with again and again, but that it's never been able to overcome. So when the U.S. and Israel started a direct confrontation with Iran, it seemed like the moment for a decisive blow against the regime. And so now that we're a month into this conflict, big picture, would you say Israel is succeeding in those three goals? At the beginning of this war, Israel looked like it may be on pace to achieve some of its aims.

2:29There was a lot of skepticism from the experts abroad, but in Israel there was optimism. But Dov says as the war continues, Israel's ability to achieve all its goals seems to be slipping away. For all the efforts the Israelis have put in, going in with the United States together with the world superpower, they may have hoped for a decisive victory. but at this point in time, they are definitely not there. Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Wednesday, April 1st.

3:09Coming up on the show, what's next for Israel's plans in Iran?

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4:57When Israel and the U.S. started the war over a month ago, they went in with massive force meant to achieve their goals right away. Within the first few hours, Israel pulled off a major victory, killing Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Israeli officials say they also killed about 40 military generals and government leaders. So that was the opening strike, and that was a strike that was meant to destabilize the regime. They call it a decapitation strike. It's something we've seen the Israelis do a number of times in recent years, where they find a chance to take out a number of leaders at the same exact time.

5:32What this does, it could make command and control very difficult. It can be difficult to decide who's giving orders, and it could also hurt the morale of your enemy. After this decapitation strike, Israel bombarded Iran's air defenses and missile launch sites. So once the air defenses are taken out, then the Israeli and American planes could fly over Iran itself. They had immediately achieved aerial superiority over Iran. They were bombing at will, whatever they want. And while all of this was happening, the U.S. was with Israel in this war. What was the U.S.'s role there? Well, the U.S. and Israel have been working hand in hand, but they've kind of divided responsibilities throughout the entire war.

6:16The United States' main responsibility has been destroying the Iranian Navy, the Iranian Air Force, you know, just pure firepower. Israel has been doing some of the same things, but Israel has been kind of the tip of the spear in terms of this regime change campaign. According to Wall Street Journal reporting, the CIA shared information with Israel to assist in the strike on the supreme leader.

6:44Following what it saw as a strong start to the war, Israel moved to the next phase in its offensive, a sophisticated targeting of Iran's security forces. Immediately after killing the supreme leader of Iran and his top generals, Israel starts blowing up all of the headquarters of the internal security forces of Iran. So the IRGC, the police, the besieged, which is like a million-man militia, all the different organizations that are responsible for internal security. And then it watches as those security forces move to their auxiliary sites, for example, sports stadiums. It waits for them to fill up those sports stadiums, and then it bombs sports stadiums.

7:27By mid-March, Israel said it had dropped 10 ,000 munitions on a range of targets. Israel believes thousands of members of Iran's security forces have been killed or wounded.

7:41Alongside the bombings, Israeli intelligence also made efforts to weaken the Iranian regime from inside. I think from Israel's point of view, they were really trying to get the senior commanders of the regime to turn sides, essentially. To either quit their roles or join some kind of opposition. or just stand aside. Dov and his colleagues reviewed Israeli intelligence documents. And one instance that stood out was a phone call between a Mossad agent and an Iranian police commander. The Mossad agent calls the official and he says, can you hear me? And then he says, we know everything about you.

8:23You're on our blacklist and we have all the information about you. Okay, the commander says. And then the Mossad agent says, I call to warn you in advance that you should stand with your people's side. And if you will not do that, your destiny will be as your leader. Do you hear me? And then the Iranian commander responds, brother, I swear on the Quran, I'm not your enemy. And then he says, I'm a dead man already. Please come help us. What was the significance of that call when you heard it? What did you think? it's a window inside the campaign you don't really hear about, the campaign to really threaten people.

9:06I mean, this was a key objective Israel wanted to reach. They wanted to see members of Iranian security forces putting down their weapons or standing aside or saying they weren't going to take part in the war anymore.

9:24But after those initial successes, things started to slow down. Regime change wasn't materializing. Soon after Khamenei was killed, Iran announced his son as successor, meaning the Islamic Republic was still in place. The Iranian people didn't rise up either. When we were speaking to Iranians, myself and mostly my colleagues really, were speaking to them, they said, you know, many of them said, well, we would like the regime to be gone, but protesting now would be suicide. Throughout the entire war, Iran itself was threatening people. Do not protest. If you protest, we will consider you as abetting the enemy, which is a threat to kill them.

10:07And they were very, very blunt about that. So despite the shakiness of the security forces, they were always still there, and the civilians in Iran always knew that. Meanwhile, Israel's goal of destroying the threat of Iran's ballistic missile systems is still unfulfilled. While Iran's ballistic missile capacity has been severely damaged, the regime still has a stockpile of weapons, enough to hit U.S. military bases and economically sensitive targets across the Persian Gulf, and shoot missiles into Israel. Barrages of missiles from Iran continue to send Israelis across the country into bomb shelters.

10:43And still, Iran's nuclear capabilities remain a major unresolved issue for Israel. Well, throughout the war, they've been hitting nuclear sites, sites that they hit again last year. They hit them again, and they hit some new sites. And if the Iranians want to restart their nuclear program, it may be very difficult for them. But they still have highly enriched uranium buried deep underground. And if they manage to procure that enriched uranium, they could potentially, according to experts, find a way to enrich it to Robert's grade level. The regime is still there. It's digging in. And it's projecting power.

11:25It has, by taking control over who can pass through the Straits of Hormuz, the Iranian regime looks emboldened. It doesn't look like it's wobbling. It looks emboldened. And this could be an even fiercer corner for Israel in the future. Now, Israel is looking to weaken Iran in new ways. That's after the break.

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12:47Israel has widened its focus to strike not just Iran's military facilities, but also industrial targets. Last week, Israeli forces hit Iranian steel factories, some of the biggest in the region. Why did it hit steel production facilities? Because you need steel to create missiles and other types of weapons. But at the same time, you also need steel to get your economy moving. and working. So in one swift move, Israel harms the industrial capability of Iran, but it also harms its economy. Their hope is that by doing this, they can buy time. And in that time, by the way, that they buy, who knows what happens?

13:27Maybe they promote protests. Maybe the American government begins a new economic strangulation campaign after the war to slowly bring the Iranian government down. So the slower they can recuperate, the more time the Israelis and the Americans have a chance to actually achieve regime change. So that's why they're going after all the supplies. They just want to buy more time. How much longer is Israel expected to keep this up? Look, it's the million-dollar question. From speaking to my sources here in Israel, I hear one to two weeks they could be done hitting all the targets they really want to hit.

14:01And once that happens, they can focus their energy on helping the Americans achieve their goals if they want to escalate. In a briefing yesterday, an Israeli military spokesperson said that the country is able to continue fighting in Iran for weeks to come. Meanwhile, the timeline for U.S. involvement in the war remains unclear. Yesterday, President Trump said the U.S. operation in Iran was expected to be done in about two to three weeks. At the same time, though, the Pentagon is considering sending more American troops to the region, which could bring the total number to over 17 ,000. Throughout this entire war, Trump has sent two different signals.

14:40The war will stop soon. The war is going to keep going. So, you know, on the one hand, he's got the stick, OK, and it's moving towards the region right now, the new stick. But on the other hand, he has the carrot. And, you know, ultimately, if the Iranians concede to the American demands, well, then that's the victory. And if not, then they can try to achieve those aims militarily. There are two main issues confronting the U.S. as Trump talks about ending the war. One of those is restoring free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has seized control of the strait, essentially shutting it down and offending global markets.

15:18Currently, Iran looks emboldened. It now has taken control of the streets of Hormuz and it has leverage. And it's saying it's going to start taxing people in order to go through. So the major question is, what does America do next? Does it escalate? Does it try to wrestle control of the Straits of Hormuz from the Iranians or not? The U.S. is also working to gain control of Iran's uranium. The Iranians still have tons of enriched uranium buried underground. You know, one way to do it would be to get so much leverage over Iran that they agreed to bring it out. You know, if the Americans and the Israelis can cause enough pain to the government where they say, you know what, if you stop the campaign, we'll give you the uranium.

16:00You know, that was potentially one way. The other way is to do, you know, some kind of operation to get it out of the ground.

16:11If the war were to end soon, Israel would still have its hands full because the Iranian regime would still be in charge, a regime that's opposed to Israel's existence. Also, Israel is continuing its fight on a second front. That front is more than likely going to last far beyond this Iran confrontation. And that's in Lebanon. The Israelis are fighting the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. It's the strongest non-state militant group in the world. And they've been fighting them basically since October 2023. Hezbollah has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. It's a militia group that has been supported by Iran for decades.

16:52That's not a small front. But Hezbollah can fire more rockets at the Israeli home front than Iran can currently. And they're a big threat to Israelis who live in northern Israel. So they may shift their resources, more of their resources to the fight with Hezbollah, while the Americans figure out what it is they want to do next in Iran. But does the Israeli military have the resources for this? I mean, wouldn't the strikes against Iran have depleted its resources for a longer campaign elsewhere? I've been asking around about this, and the reality is what I'm told is that in terms of munitions and manpower, they have it.

17:28They have it. But there is one resource that is very finite and very limited and very important, and those are the missile interceptors. And the longer the campaign goes on, the less Israel has, the less it can protect its strategic sites and its civilians. And that is a major problem and a major factor for Israel. In a sign of the mounting pressure that its military is facing, Israel has started rationing its use of high-end missile interceptors. Since the war started, there have been over 18 ,000 airstrikes in Iran, with more than 1 ,500 civilians killed. Over a dozen Israelis have been killed by missile strikes.

18:09What is your analysis of what's happened in this war from Israel's perspective? Like, where is it at now? If the war were to end today, as it is, I think what you're going to hear are two narratives. The first is that, well, mission success. I mean, Iran isn't the threat it was before a month ago. It can't shoot waves of hundreds of missiles at Israel. And its ability to project power has been significantly diminished. So there isn't this sword of Damocles hanging over the Israelis' necks. In his speech yesterday, Netanyahu said they were beyond the halfway point in the war effort with Iran.

18:54Netanyahu said Iran was no longer a threat to Israel's existence.

19:04I think the critics of this campaign will say, you've had a lot of tactical success. You've blown up a lot of things. You've really reduced their military capabilities. But where's the strategic success? Where is the permanent removal of the threats that you really wanted? Remember we said at the beginning of this, what the Israelis really wanted was for this to be a decisive victory. And they haven't achieved that.

19:39That's all for today, Wednesday, April 1st. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal. Additional reporting in this episode by Benoit Foucan, Anat Pellet, and Shandy Rice. Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow. The Future of Everything is The Wall Street Journal's flagship live event. Returning to New York City May 4th through 5th. Be there as CEOs, policymakers, and innovators sit down with our journalists to answer the most pressing questions of the day. From finance, tech, and economic policy to sports, streaming, and style, we're bringing together today's most compelling newsmakers for two days of conversations on what's ahead.

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