What's Next for Iran?

0:05Jessica Mendoza:It's almost three days into the U.S. and Israel's massive military action against Iran, with 2 ,000 targets hit since the strikes began. So far, more than 550 Iranians have been killed, according to the humanitarian organization, the Red Crescent. And Iran has hit back with force. Here's our colleague Suna Rasmussen.

0:32Sune Engel Rasmussen:Almost immediately after the attacks started over the weekend, we saw Iran responding by attacking Arab countries in the Gulf. In fact, they've attacked every single country in the Gulf.

0:42Jessica Mendoza:Many others in Israel took cover as air raid sirens rang out after Tehran vowed revenge for the killing of its supreme leader. — Explosions have so far been reported across several U.S. air bases in the region, including in Bahrain, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates. — Several deaths have been reported after those Iranian strikes, including in Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

1:10Sune Engel Rasmussen:— And I think that's to show both the U.S., Israel, the world, and to show the neighbors in the Middle East that if Iran is attacked, They want to show the countries in the region that they can't attack Iran without ramifications.

1:28Sune Engel Rasmussen:If there's a long-term, full-blown war in Iran, that's obviously very dangerous for the Iranian people. And if things escalate and Iranians rise up, then there is an increased risk for the Islamic Republic of being toppled. Right now, the Iranian regime is fighting for its survival. The U.S. and Israel just killed the supreme leader and dozens of his military commanders, and the regime is genuinely at risk of falling. So for them, this is an existential fight for its life.

2:04Jessica Mendoza:Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza. It's Monday, March 2nd.

2:17Jessica Mendoza:Coming up on the show, war in the Middle East with Iran at the center.

2:48Jessica Mendoza:Intuit Enterprise Suite the AI native ERP is here from the makers of QuickBooks learn more at Intuit.com slash ERP Brought to you by Apple Card Hey, you could be earning 2 % daily cash back on that purchase and that one and even that one That's because Apple Card users earn 2 % daily cash back on every purchase including everyday items you buy online or in store when using their Apple Card with Apple Pay Not an Apple Card customer? You can apply in the Wallet app on iPhone. Subject to credit approval. Apple Card issued by Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch. Terms and more at apple.co slash benefits.

3:35Jessica Mendoza:Why did the U.S. and Israel choose this specific moment to strike? What was the catalyst that triggered this weekend's operation? The U.S.

3:43Sune Engel Rasmussen:wanted Iran to cease all enrichment of uranium. Iran says, as a sovereign nation, it has a right to develop nuclear power for civilian purposes. But the nuclear program has always been a subject of controversy internationally, which is why they've been negotiating over it. The official reason Trump gave for attacking Iran was that he had lost patience with the ongoing negotiations, and he didn't believe that Iran was moving or moving fast enough to give the concessions that the U.S. wanted.

4:13Jessica Mendoza:According to Wall Street Journal reporting, Saturday in particular presented U.S. and Israeli intelligence with a rare opportunity. Iranian military and political leaders were holding a meeting, one that included Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The U.S. and Israel struck in full daylight, with Israeli jets dropping a host of munitions on Khamenei's compound. Khamenei was killed in that strike, along with several top government and military advisors. According to Iranian state media, the strikes also damaged residential buildings, medical facilities, and also hit an elementary school in southern Iran, with a death toll of at least 148.

4:55Jessica Mendoza:With Khamenei's death, Iran has found itself in a moment of transition.

5:02Sune Engel Rasmussen:Ali Khamenei was in power for 37 years in Iran. He was the longest-sitting Middle Eastern ruler by quite a distance. And he leaves behind an Iran that is much stronger than when he took over. Like when he took over in 1989, Iran was emerging from a devastating eight-year war with Iraq and a revolution that preceded it. So it was close to bankruptcy and it was recovering from a lot of violence. Through the 90s, he and his government managed to spur economic growth. And over the decades, he turned Iran into a military power in the Middle East that his enemies really had to contend with. But Khamenei also leaves a regime that's under unprecedented pressure from its population.

5:49Sune Engel Rasmussen:This vision of an Islamic society, an Islamic republic that Khamenei and his peers had after the 1979 revolution, that is a vision that has increasingly alienated Iranians. both because they think it's out of touch with modern times, but also because of, frankly, the violence that the Islamic Republic has imposed on its own population and people who didn't support that vision in order to keep them in check. So he leaves behind an Islamic Republic under pressure.

6:23Jessica Mendoza:That pressure was on display in December, when a financial crisis led to huge protests throughout the country. Khamenei's security forces responded with a brutal crackdown, killing thousands of Iranian citizens. At the time, President Trump threatened to take action against the government.

6:40Sune Engel Rasmussen:And I've canceled all meetings with the Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. And all I say to them is help is on its way.

6:49Jessica Mendoza:You saw that I put... After this weekend's strikes began, Trump posted videos telling the Iranian people that this moment is their once-in-a-generation chance to take down the regime.

6:59Sune Engel Rasmussen:When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

7:10Jessica Mendoza:Suna, is there a sense that Iranians are gearing up for a popular uprising against the regime?

7:15Sune Engel Rasmussen:No, not yet. I don't think we should expect that as long as bombs keep raining from the skies over Tehran. We shouldn't expect Iranians to take matters into their own hands and immediately topple the Islamic system that has been in place for nearly 50 years. To have a successful revolution, you need several things, but two things that you historically have needed is on the one side, you need a regime that's fracturing and weakening with defections, things like that. We haven't seen that in Iran, even during the worst protests or the worst crackdown on protesters here in January. And then on the other side, you need an opposition that is organized behind a common goal, which they have in this case, but also with a leader.

8:04Sune Engel Rasmussen:And in the case of Iran, they might also need weapons. And we haven't seen any signs of those two things coming to bear yet in Iran. I'm not aware of any historical precedent where a regime has been toppled by airstrikes alone.

8:20Jessica Mendoza:So if regime change isn't likely, what does Iran's government look like right now? Like, who's in charge?

8:27Sune Engel Rasmussen:So when we talk about the Iranian regime or the system, the Islamic system, it's important to understand that that's both the supreme leader, it's a government, it's a parliament, it's a military. And in the military, you have the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. So there's a lot of different power centers in what we call the regime. Like, the entire Islamic system remains still. The Iranian leadership has always known that if too much power and authority was concentrated in one person or even a dozen people, that would make it vulnerable to decapitation. And that's what we see now.

9:05Jessica Mendoza:Already, the Iranian government has begun the succession process to find a new leader to replace Khamenei.

9:15Sune Engel Rasmussen:In these American-Israeli strikes, dozens of important and high-ranking military commanders have been killed, political officials as well. And decision-making in Iran doesn't really seem to have slowed down. Like, I'm not suggesting here that the killing of Khamenei is not going to change Iran. It definitely will. But as we can see in the way that Iran immediately retaliated to these attacks and continues to do so, there are a lot of people who know what to do in a situation like this and are involved in decision making.

9:51Jessica Mendoza:What Iran's response could mean for the rest of the Middle East is up next.

10:04Jessica Mendoza:This episode is brought to you by Workday. Could AI help you do more of what you love? Like reaching bigger goals ahead of schedule, growing careers, and the bottom line. Workday is the next-gen ERP powered by AI that actually knows your business, anticipating your toughest challenges and how to better solve them, connecting more dots in your organization, so your people have more time to connect to what they love. It's a new workday. This episode is brought to you by Claude from Anthropic. Anthropic just made a commitment. No ads in Claude. That matters because ads in AI aren't like ads elsewhere.

10:43Jessica Mendoza:On social media, they sit next to your content. In AI, they could be woven into it to keep you engaged rather than helping you think something through or getting the tough work done. See why the world's best problem solvers choose Claude as their thinking partner. Try it free at claude.ai slash thejournal.

11:07Jessica Mendoza:In its efforts to retaliate, Iran has targeted hotels, ports, and airports in the Gulf Arab states. It struck oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia. And in the UAE, it killed three people and injured dozens.

11:23Sune Engel Rasmussen:So Iran's response so far has been to go after countries in the Middle East that it perceives to be allied or helping the U.S.

11:32Jessica Mendoza:Suna, what is Iran's strategy here?

11:34Sune Engel Rasmussen:I think from an Iranian perspective, they also want to make it as costly and politically untenable for President Trump as possible to continue this war. And President Trump has insisted always that he is not going to drag the U.S. into another forever war in the Middle East or anywhere else. So the question is, how many American casualties will he accept or will the American people accept before he's forced to pull back?

12:05Jessica Mendoza:Iran has also hit U.S. military facilities in Kuwait and the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Six American service members have been killed as of Monday afternoon. In addition, Iran has closed off the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key transit line for global fuel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would set fire to any ship coming through. And shutting the strait down could have a significant impact on the world economy.

12:36Jessica Mendoza:What impact has Iran's strategy had so far?

12:39Sune Engel Rasmussen:So the Iranian attacks are not only imposing a cost on the reputation and the economies of the Gulf states, they're also creating confusion and panic and fear in countries that are not used to being directly involved in war. In Kuwait today, we saw Kuwaiti anti-air defenses mistakenly shoot down three American fighter jets. Like no American soldiers were killed. But this is the kind of incidents that we could definitely see more of in a war like this. I think the Iranians will hope that the governments of the Gulf states will also have a limited patience with this kind of damage. We don't know.

13:18Sune Engel Rasmussen:In the UAE, the United Arab Emirates have said that the Iranian attacks are only hardening their resolves to fight back. So far, that's rhetoric. And I think the Iranians will hope that they will pull their support for this war sooner rather than later.

13:35Jessica Mendoza:So it sounds like it's not clear yet whether this sort of pressure tactic is necessarily working at the moment.

13:43Sune Engel Rasmussen:No, I think we're still waiting to see how things shake out. But we're only, what, less than 72 hours into this fighting. And a lot can happen in the next couple of days.

13:56Jessica Mendoza:How likely is a regional war?

13:59Sune Engel Rasmussen:What does that mean, a regional war? Right now we have Israel attacking Iran and Iran fighting back and drawing in close to 10 Arab Gulf states. Right. The question is, of course, if countries in the Gulf decide to get properly involved in this war to retaliate against Iran, that would definitely be an escalation that we haven't seen before because the Gulf countries have traditionally stood outside armed conflict in the region. We could also see violence flare up in Iraq. Lebanon could flare up. We also have a very fragile new government in Syria. So if violence flares up there, then all of a sudden we have a whole sort of belt of violence stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean.