U.S. Economic Growth Slows to 1.5%; Inflation Stays High in June

25:25So let's talk a little bit more about this. No party has claimed responsibility for that strike, and Iran maintains Egypt as a friend, but it seems this war keeps expanding. what would Egypt getting involved mean for Iran and for the overall war right now? Well, I think that Iran realizes that the United States has reached the limits of what it can achieve with military power alone. And I think Iran has also decided that it's in their interest to have some sort of a controlled confrontation versus a ceasefire. They have more leverage that way. And so by striking, if it was Iran that struck Damietta or one of their proxies, what they're doing, of course, is spreading the potential economic impact of this war, which would raise pressure on the Trump administration.

26:19U.S. Central Command put this post on X, fact-checking Iranian claims about the Strait of Hormuz and destroyed U.S. F-35s and included this apparent radio transmission from the IRGC threatening ships on the Strait today. You are running danger. Don't put your life in danger. To maintain the health and safety of the ship and crew, you are ordered to go back to your departure immediately. If you disabay, you will be targeted and destroyed definitively. This is the Navy out. So what do you make of this CINCOM PR strategy of putting this all out there? Well, I think it's the Iranians showing that they are still in control of the strait.

27:03Even if the U.S. Navy, the world's greatest Navy, is able to do certain things, the fact is shipping companies do not have confidence that they can move cargo or people through the strait. And their insurance companies are not willing to underwrite this. So as long as that's the case, Iran, in effect, controls the strait. So that's why I think they would publish something like that. How does the U.S. get out of that, though, of Iran controlling the strait? I mean, there's a there's a blockade. There's been these back and forth strikes and a pause and then strikes again. I mean, where does this go from here?

27:39Well, of course, you're asking me to try and provide a logical analysis of a strategy that makes no sense of what the administration has been doing thus far. And I think, honestly, at this point, the administration is going to have to seriously consider a restart. I mean, to back away from this, maybe even take the temporary loss or the embarrassment and start over. Go back to basics. Clearly define the end state. Come up with the ends, ways and means to achieve that end state. Consult with the Congress. We need allies. And then make sure you have the resources to do it. Otherwise, I think the administration is going to have to accept the fact that Iran is not going to go back to the way it was.

28:27It's not going to be freedom of navigation, at least the way the administration has done this so far. It would help if the administration was more transparent in how they talk about things, explain what's going on. You know, how many times we heard the president say the Iranians are begging for a deal or Secretary Hegseth has said we have destroyed everything. Obviously, that's not the case. So nobody believes anything that comes from the White House. Regaining trust would help, and that would include talking with our Congress, as they should. All right, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, thanks for coming on to share your perspective on all of this.

29:03And all of this action on the Strait of Hormuz is causing huge fluctuations on global oil markets. Meanwhile, Shell's latest quarterly profits soar to the second highest levels in the company's history. Exxon and Chevron are expected to reveal their own profits tomorrow, which analysts also expect to approach company records. Joining us now is Mike Summers, the president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute. Hey there, Mike. So last time you were on this show, you sounded the alarm on the dwindling strategic oil reserve. Now you say it's at its lowest level since the 80s. How much is left and what happens when the reserve runs out?

29:41We are very concerned about continuing dwindling inventories, not just in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but also commercial inventories as well. If you look at the inventories in Cushing, for example, Oklahoma, where we have a lot of commercial inventories, and really that is the crossroads for the American oil and gas industry. It's where the oil goes and then is delivered to various points throughout the United States. We are at historic lows, both in the SPR and at Cushing. And that could lead to significant price increases if we don't get those filled as quickly as possible. You just heard the conversation I had with the lieutenant general.

30:18I mean, it doesn't look like this war will get resolved anytime soon at the rate it's going. At this point, are there other avenues for the global oil trade to potentially bypass the strait entirely? Well, the most important place is really that Strait of El-Mandab, which is the southern way that oil is flowing through the Saudi east-west pipeline, south through the Red Sea. But there are concerns there as well, as the Houthis potentially go into that area and start threatening Saudi tankers out of that strait. The other place for it to go is essentially through the north end of the Red Sea, through the Suez Canal.

30:55But there are logistical concerns there. You can't put the very large vessels through the Suez Canal. So it should be a big concern to all lawmakers about where this is headed. Fortunately, we are buttressed by the fact that the United States is now the largest producer of both oil and natural gas in the world. And that continued supply has really been the insurance policy for the world, given the circumstance that we've had for the last five months in the strait. So gas, it's been back over$4 a gallon for more than a week now, and the prices keep climbing. What is your message to Americans who see these oil companies making near record profits because of a war that at the moment is not near an end as far as we know?

31:42Well, the message is that we need a lot more production here in the United States if we're going to keep prices at the right level. Fortunately, because of the fracking revolution, we've been able to produce more oil and more natural gas than any other country in the world. This is a commodities business. Prices go up, prices go down. In 2020, we were meeting with President Trump when we were actually dealing with negative oil prices. And nobody in the oil industry was asking for a bailout then. What we need is sustained production and a level price for oil and natural gas to make sure that we can continue to produce for the American people and the world.

32:22We also know that there are a lot of people that are hurting right now as a consequence of these prices. Production has gone up. In fact, our rig counts, which is a real measure of how much production is going up, are up by 45 rigs just this year alone. That is a direct result of the industry responding to consumer prices and making sure that we're producing more here in the United States so that we don't have to be dependent on oil from the Middle East. All right, Mike Summers, thank you for coming on. Great to be with you, Pam. And in the sports lead, FIFA's growing problem, teams protesting FIFA's new private investment plans, plans that could involve Jared Kushner's younger brother.

33:01What has one coalition calling for a FIFA boycott? Up next.

33:10Breaking tonight in our sports league shock and outrage. FIFA faces backlash over its plan to create a 20 billion dollar operation to run the World Cup with private investors. The coalition of 55 European teams is boycotting all future competitions if FIFA's new investment plan passes. And another organization that includes the United States is rejecting the proposal. And part of the anger is directed at the main proposed investor group, Thrive Eternal. That's headed up by Joshua Kushner, the younger brother of Jared Kushner, President Trump's son-in-law. So let's talk all about this with CNN's Christina McFarlane and two soccer experts with The Athletic senior writers Megan Linehan and Felipe Cardenas.

33:54Thank you so much for coming on. So, Christina, to you first, after unanimously voting to boycott future FIFA competitions, Part of the statement from this European coalition, it's known as UEFA, reads, quote, no part of it should ever be surrendered to private investors. The World Cup is not for sale. What about this deal makes it so controversial? Yeah, Pamela, look, what we saw from UEFA today was a furious rebuke to what G &A Amfantino has been trying to do here, which is to commercialize the World Cup through the sale to private entities without notifying its members, its leaders, or even FIFA members within his own orbit, including apparently his own vice president.

34:37So the plan for this FIFA Forward Enterprise, or FFE as it's been called, is to sell stakes in its World Cup competitions to private investors for a commercial entity that will run its main events. Now, the one company that's being earmarked to lead this investor group is the investment fund Thrive Capital, which is being run by Jared Kushner's brother, his younger brother, Joshua Kushner. So Gianni Infantino at this point, he came out yesterday and said that all FIFA federations, 211 of them, have got until September the 19th to sign on to this deal. And in return, they could receive anywhere in the region of up to$40 million for doing so.

35:18He is insistent that this is an offer and not an obligation. But quite honestly, that is not how many of these federations are viewing this. Hence the reason why we saw such a unanimous and strong boycott today. So Felipe, how do you see this playing out? Will FIFA's plan pass without European or North American support? Well, we have to wait and see. I think right now we are in the backlash stage of this, not necessarily the fallout yet. But right now, 96 of the 211 FIFA national associations have come out and opposed this plan. So you're nearing the majority here. I think we still have plenty to go.

35:55We haven't heard from South America at the time of, we haven't heard from Africa, we haven't heard from the Asian Confederation either. And those are key allies, I think, of FIFA President Gianni Infantino. So the way this plays out is we have 24, 48 hours to find out what these confederations are going to say. It does feel like the inevitability of a commercialization arm for FIFA perhaps is something that doesn't happen this week, but perhaps it's part of the future of the sport. And that is really what is upsetting a lot of the fans. And that's been coming out of the reports out of the UK as well, that you're hearing actually members of these associations saying that this is everything from irresponsible to indefensible.

36:38So I think when cooler heads prevail, perhaps these dialogues are more professional. But right now, Gianni Infantino having a bit of a PR crisis that he's having to deal with at a global scale right now. And Meg, the pressure is on FIFA to resolve the standoff with UEFA because there's a lot of upcoming competitions, right? The big one is next year's Women's World Cup, but the under-20 Women's World Cup starts in September, followed by several others. As someone whose beat is women's soccer, are you hearing about any changes to these upcoming tournaments? There haven't been any announced changes at this point, but I do think, to your point, the U-20 competition is actually being hosted by Poland, which is, of course, a member nation of UEFA, the European contingent.

37:20So there is a potential that this tournament could be cancelled or rescheduled if it's not immediately reconciled as to next steps. But also the senior national teams are in the middle of World Cup qualifying, and the next round of qualifiers for the 2027 World Cup for Europe are set to start in October. England is a part of those. These are massive teams involved in World Cup qualifying still. And so to me, the really unfair part of this is every part of this plan has been focused on the Men's World Cup, men in general, and the women are set to pay the more immediate price for Infantino's plans.

37:57So just to follow up with you, Meg, the 2023 Women's World Cup generated$570 million in revenue and FIFA is projecting$1 million for 2027. Is there a world where FIFA's new investment plan could even surpass that? So what I do think is interesting is FIFA has finally split up media rights for the men's and women's World Cup. So now women's World Cup is finally earning its own valuation alongside the men. But to be fair, FIFA has also historically undervalued basically every single women's project. It feels like based off the success of 2026, there's really no end in sight to how much money FIFA thinks they could make off of major tournaments.

38:40The challenge is, you know, is the soul of the sport itself up for sale? You know, hydration breaks for one of the main topics of this World Cup and the commercial impact they could have. So right now it just feels like FIFA is willing to extract every single ounce of value they can get out of major tournaments. How do you see it, Felipe? Do you think it could be a good thing for women's soccer on a global scale? I mean, I think right now it's difficult to say. Obviously, there are going to be member associations, both from the men's and the women's side, that see this as an opportunity to try to play at a more even playing field from a financial perspective.

39:20I think the way this has been rolled out, though, and to Meg's point, what we've seen in the past in terms of FIFA's obligations and the responsibilities with women's sports and women's soccer, it doesn't paint a very nice picture. And so I think that's what's really concerning everyone is that the fallout is going to be is going to be just as loud as the backlash. And right now, we don't really see who the winners are in terms of the sport and the product of football. All right. Thank you all so much for coming on and sharing your reporting and perspective. We appreciate it. Well, two Republican senators demand their blocking to be attorney general and a 45 minute meeting.

39:55Did the conversation today change anything? We've been getting new details almost every hour, and we're checking in with CNN's top reporters covering the Justice Department, the White House, and Capitol Hill. Up next.

40:13This is CNN Breaking News. Welcome to The Lead. I'm Pamela Brown in for Jake Tapper. Breaking news in our politics lead. a private meeting this afternoon among acting Attorney General Todd Blanche and the two Republican senators blocking Blanche from becoming the permanent attorney general. Sources confirming that meeting to CNN tonight. A vote to move Blanche's confirmation out of the Senate Judiciary Committee was scheduled for this morning, but had to be postponed last night when it was clear the votes weren't there. GOP Senators John Cornyn and Tom Tillis said today they were close to a deal with Blanche and the DOJ over demands to put in writing a promise to kill the$1.8 billion anti-weaponization fund and to ensure Trump and his family are not exempt from future IRS enforcement when it comes to tax audits.

41:01But then Trump made his own public plans. He posted on True Social, quote, I have no objection to temporarily withdrawing Todd's name if they do not do the right thing and putting him back after Cornyn and Tillis are out of office. If the president takes that action, Blanche could continue to serve as acting attorney general with the same powers as if he had the role for good. So let's bring in our CNN correspondence from all points along Pennsylvania Avenue. First to Caitlin Collins at the White House. Caitlin, what are your sources telling you as to whether Trump will withdraw Blanche's nomination?

41:34Well, Pam, it's pretty remarkable because just 24 hours ago, the president was telling reporters in the Oval Office that he did not think there were any issues with Todd Blanche's nomination that he was going to sail through. And now, of course, the president is threatening to withdraw nomination entirely should they not be able to come to an agreement with these two key Republican Senate holdouts. And of course not just any two holdouts but two holdouts who are going to no longer be in the Senate because of President Trump and the role that he played in ousting them from their offices. And so we'll wait to see if the president actually follows through on that threat if they cannot come to an agreement.

42:09So far it's just a threat for now. We are hearing from our sources. But obviously this comes as Todd Blanche has been meeting with Tom Tillis and John Cornyn trying to get to some kind of resolution. But it's a dicey situation and a delicate one because obviously part of what's at the heart of this and that John Cornyn wants clarification on is what President Trump is benefiting from in this agreement, which is to shield him from retroactive IRS investigation after his tax returns were leaked, obviously, during his first term in office. And so we'll see if it goes anywhere from there in terms of this threat.

42:42But it is not just an easy threat for the president to make. He's saying he'll just re-nominate Todd Blanch at a later date once Tom Tillis and John Cornyn are out of the Senate. It is not guaranteed, though, that those would be better conditions for this White House. It is a gamble, and the administration does know that. All right, Manu, to you on Capitol Hill, what are you learning about this latest private meeting with Blanch and the two Republican senators pushing back on his nomination? Well, the fact that they even met is significant because John Cornyn had called off a meeting just yesterday.

43:12There was another meeting that he had previously was scheduled to have with Todd Blanche. That didn't happen as well. All is Cornyn had demanded to have something in writing before they met. Now, it's unclear if they presented him with any sort of new proposal, but I'm told that progress was made at this meeting. And the source told me that no deal has been reached yet, but there has been progress. But the big question is going to be whether or not the White House itself will sign off on this. In fact, what John Cornyn told me earlier today and Tom Tills, that they believe that they could reach a deal with Todd Blanche.

43:46But the question is whether or not the White House itself would intervene. I think if this were just between me and Todd Blanche, we would have worked this out. But apparently he's getting some pushback from higher-ups at the White House. My reaction is the president's getting bad advice. He should listen to Blanche and others who think if it's dead, it should be rendered completely dead. The only reason why we wouldn't move forward with this language is because that same advisor wants to bring it back to life at some point. But Pam, this is a critical moment because at the end of next week is when recess begins for the United States Senate, which means that if he is not confirmed by the end of next week, then it will be this nomination will simply languish over the August summer period work break.

44:35And that means that the momentum could certainly stall for this nomination. And it could very well collapse, which is why the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, he told me earlier today that he still wants to try to move ahead and try to have a vote. But the first key thing is to get Tillis and Cornyn on board. If either of them were to vote no, then this nomination would collapse, which is perhaps one biggest reason why they decided to have that meeting away from the Capitol. They did it at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters out of the viewing public of the press.

45:06And Evan, you covered the Justice Department. What are your sources telling you, those around Blanche, about how they're handling this right now? Well, you know, there's a lot of frustration because they believe that there are various proposals that Blanche has presented, language that they have presented to the senators and that they thought would be OK and then have it essentially pulled back. And, you know, part of the issue here is that it goes beyond that weaponization fund, which Blanche has made clear is dead, at least that version of it. The president has mused that there could be other ways that he wants to try to pursue this.

45:43Again, that's part of the problem. But the biggest issue is this addendum that Blanche signed, the IRS addendum that was released back in May, which basically says that the president and his family, his affiliates, his companies would be immune not only from IRS audits, but the language is so broad, Pamela, that the concern is that it covers a lot more than just those audits. And that's one of the things that Cornyn mentioned during the Blanche hearing just a couple weeks ago, because it says forever barred and precluded. And it also says that it includes things that are known or unknown. And so that is language that is so broad that it does raise the concerns as to what the president is immune from.

46:27And I think that's part of the problem, that the president doesn't want to give that up. And Todd Blanche doesn't know how to square that. So, Caitlin, you alluded to this, but of course, Cornyn and Tillis are not coming back. Right. And they're being thorns in the president's side. And it's not a surprise. Right. Because the president, as you noted, endorsed their opponents. And here we are seeing this play out right now. How frustrated is the president over this? Well, it's also really a West Wing wide frustration because I don't think they envisioned the fact that someone like, you know, John Cornyn would be able to have this much leverage and this much influence over something that they're doing.

47:06They thought after defeating him and ousting him in that primary that Ken Paxton, obviously, is now the Republican nominee in that race for that they would essentially be done with this. They did not seem to envision the headache that he could potentially cause for them like right now, which is what he is doing. And so they've been trying to have meetings with him and Todd Blanch. I mean, the fact that they met today, as Manu reported, is even noteworthy in and of itself because several of the meetings John Cornyn was supposed to have with Todd Blanche had been canceled, including one this week that was canceled about 30 minutes before it was scheduled to begin.

47:36And so the White House obviously now finds themselves reckoning with that. And yes, maybe they want to deal with it for that much longer, but they certainly are having to deal with it now. And the president himself, as he alluded to yesterday, believes all of this is driven by the fact that he did try to oust John Cornyn from the Senate and supported his challenger in this race. And Evan, as Todd Blanche continues as acting AG, you have this new reporting about how he and other members of the Trump administration are pressuring law enforcement. What is that about? Well, they're pressuring law enforcement to try to help get this crypto cryptocurrency legislation.

48:13It's known as the Clarity Act to try to get it passed. They're trying to get it done in the next week. And they're facing some headwinds in part because there's some law enforcement organizations, some of these outside groups that have raised concerns about whether this law would allow some loopholes for money laundering, for funding of terrorism. Now, Blanche has been on the phone, working the phones, trying to get these groups to work to try to support the legislation. And part of the law, the law is basically bringing regulation to cryptocurrencies, which is something that really has broad bipartisan support.

48:48But there's this one issue that Democrats have been coming, have been harping on, including the fact, of course, that the president reported making$1.4 billion in profits from cryptocurrency. So we are watching that to see whether it can get through the Senate in the next week. But it is part of what Blanche has been doing, essentially working overtime to try to win this nomination, trying to make sure that the president is happy with him. He's doing all of these things in a way to try to make sure that the White House stays on board and working for this nomination. We'll see whether this cryptocurrency legislation can get through in the next few days.

49:28We shall see. All right, Evan Perez, Manu Raju, Caitlin Collins, thank you all. Great to see you. And look for new reporting from Caitlin tonight on her show, The Source with Caitlin Collins. Her guests include Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland. That's tonight at 9 Eastern here on CNN. And up next on the lead, a hypothetical question. Would it be a change for better or worse if most of Congress were replaced in November? See if you side with voters in our new CNN poll. Plus, a new cooking venture for Health and Human Services Secretary RFK Jr., the man with a track record of picking up roadkill.

50:07We'll be back.

50:12All right, let's turn to our world lead. The Senate just voted on Trump's war powers for a 13th time and failed to advance a resolution that would stop the Iran war in a 49-50 vote. Today, Minority Leader Senator Chuck Schumer said the war is one of the greatest foreign policy dumpster fires in American history. Joining us now is former Defense Secretary and CIA Director during the Obama administration, Leon Panetta. Hi, Secretary. Nice to see you. So you told CNN last week that the U.S. is in, quote, deep trouble without an exit strategy in this war. Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told me just last hour the U.S.

50:48should pause, step back and restart. Do you agree? And would that make the U.S. look weak?

50:58Well, the problem is that right now we're stuck. Both parties are stuck. You know, both parties really don't see any kind of advantage, although they're bombing each other, that there is any kind of gaining in terms of what they're seeking as a result of the bombing. And in addition to that, neither really believes that negotiations are going to produce any kind of viable income outcome. So you really have both parties stuck at the present time. And what we have essentially is what all the parties did not want, which is a forever war that is going on. We are now in the sixth month of this war, which was only supposed to last a couple weeks.

51:55And it pretty clearly is turning into a very prolonged war. How do you explain it to people who look at this and say, how is it that these two superpowers, the U.S. and Israel, have been attacking Iran in this war now into its six months, as you point out, and Iran still has the capability to kill U.S. service members and launch drone attacks and other missile attacks and keep this war going and make it so that we're having this discussion where the U.S., in your view, has really no great options here? How is that? Well, that's what I'm sure everyone is asking. The question as to, you know, where are we going with this war?

52:41I think it's the product of a lot of poor judgments, very frankly. The first one being the initial attack with the hope that somehow within a few days of killing the Iranian leadership, that the regime would come down. That failed. And since then, the administration has been struggling to try to figure out exactly what is the objective. In addition to that, we have a situation where because they did not anticipate the Straits of Hormuz being closed, that the Straits are closed, and it's producing economic harm here in the the United States and around the world. And so the inability to put together an MOU and a negotiated agreement that ultimately could really be enforced, I think the combination of all of those mistakes is why we're paying the price right now of a war that is not coming to an end and is likely to continue.

53:55And in continuing, it's going to continue to hurt our economy. It's going to continue to hurt the American people. Is this an unwinnable war, in your view? Is this what? Is this an unwinnable war, in your view? I think right now, neither side, neither side can claim any kind of win or victory. They're in a stalemate. They can't get back to negotiations where you would think they would want to go. The Iranians themselves are hesitating to get back to negotiations. The United States is left with continuing to bomb without really producing any result as a consequence of that bombing. You know, I've compared this to Vietnam, and I think the similarities are there.

54:49Nixon continued to bomb Cambodia in the hopes that they would force North Vietnam into some kind of negotiation. It never really happened. It ultimately did produce an agreement. But in the end, we lost that war. And so we are now at loggerheads trying to figure out where is the next step in order to try to bring this war to an end. And the fact is that there is no option right now that can bring this war to an end. So then do you think it's an unwinnable war? I think we're locked into an unwinnable war that is going to continue as other wars have continued without any kind of satisfactory conclusion.

55:46That's the kind of legacy, frankly, that in the 21st century, the United States continues to make, whether it was Iraq, whether it was Afghanistan, or whether it's Iran. We are not we are finding ourselves in unwinnable wars that ultimately consume the United States, hurt our economy and most importantly, I think, make us look weak to the rest of the world. All right, Secretary Leon Panetta, thanks for coming on and sharing your viewpoint. We appreciate it. Coming up on the lead, the strong plea today from the parents of Nolan Wells. All we want to know is the truth. We're not blaming anyone. We just want to know the truth.

56:38Any parent want that. The families request 27 long days since the Mississippi teen turned up dead after a day on the water with friends.

56:54And we are back in the politics lead with just 96 days until midterm elections. A new CNN poll shows most voters are itching to unseat incumbents. 51 percent say Congress would be changed for the better if most current members were replaced this November. So let's bring in a current member of Congress. That would be Democratic Congressman Brendan Boyle from Pennsylvania. All right, Congressman, what do you make of that number? Well, I assume they were talking about someone else and not me. Of course not you, right? I agree with them that a majority of the House of Representatives should be replaced.

57:33And I think the way we'll get real change this November is if Democrats win the majority for the first time since 2018. this Republican president and this Republican controlled Congress has such poor numbers because poll other polls show this is the worst that Americans feel about the economy in 20 years since the great recession. And the Americans are right. The American people are right to feel that way because you look at the anemic growth. We got more data today confirming that we look at reset inflation rather now at a multi-year high because of Trump's reckless Iran war, as well as his tariff taxes.

58:11You look at economic confidence for the future, and by one measure, it's actually the lowest ever recorded in a survey that goes back to 1953. So with those kind of economic statistics in mind, it's no surprise at all that this is such a deeply unpopular Congress. Then just what you laid out, are you surprised people aren't more fired up to vote for Democrats. It is true that in this poll, registered voters say they are more motivated to vote for Democrats, but it's not by a huge number here. And you look at the favorability numbers for both parties, not very good. 31 % have a favorable opinion of Republicans, 30 % of Democrats.

58:52So how do you square that with what you're seeing in politics right now, what you just laid out? Yeah, actually, if you go back the last 20 years, we've seen pretty consistent numbers, that people have a very dim view of Congress regardless of who is in power. And I think it's a problem in terms of our Democratic legitimacy. Now, I would say that when people feel that discontented, they tend to take it out on the party in power. Republicans control the House, the Senate, and the White House. They have run the place for quite a while now. So I do think that Republicans are going to be held responsible this November.

59:27The final point I would make is when you're saying that Democrats are not doing as well in some polls as one would think, you're looking probably at the generic congressional ballot where we lead by six points. I would point out that in all of the special elections that have taken place in this country over the last 20 months, Democrats have outperformed by double that. We've outperformed by more than 14 points. So in the actual elections, not the polls, but the actual hard elections that have taken place, Democrats have been winning by fairly big margins. So are you happy with how the party is right now and the messaging and everything it is doing?

1:00:06Do you feel like it's sufficient or would you like to see the Democratic Party do more? I'm the kind of person who, even if a poll shows I have a 50 point lead, I'm still anxious and nervous until the actual election and we'll feel better when it's over. So I think that we can always improve. I mean, the message that I've communicated over the last year and a half is the one that's based on the facts. And that is Donald Trump was elected president for more than any other reason that he promised he would and his exact words were, I will lower costs on day one. He hasn't that. He hasn't done that at all.

1:00:43He has failed to do so. In fact, because of his policies, costs have only gone up instead of going down. I know damn well that if Democrats win the majority in November and I become the next chair of the budget committee, my top three priorities will be high cost of living, high cost of living, high cost of living. We will focus on that like a laser beam. And I had Kevin Hassett on earlier, an economic advisor, as you know, and he countered the rising cost of prices with saying wages are going up more than to offset the cost of the prices. But you mentioned the prices in different areas. And the Trump administration just announced this week that it will end a Biden era program that reduces the cost of drug premiums for people living on Medicare.

1:01:28Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Administrator, says premiums will go up by less than$10 for most Medicare recipients, with many even seeing lower premiums. It's not clear who these changes will directly impact yet, or if that's true. What are you learning about this? Well, this is yet one more way that this administration and the Republicans who enabled it in Congress are making health care cost more for the American people. First, about a year ago, they passed their major tax bill, which included devastating cuts to the Obamacare subsidies, as well as cuts that will begin this December to Medicaid, all told almost a trillion dollars worth of cuts to our health care system.

1:02:10We are already seeing the impact of that. A major report out today showing the increase in the number of people who are uninsured. And sure enough, they are now showing up in ERs and overloading emergency rooms to get the care that they used to be getting, but now no longer are getting because they're uninsured. And now here we have a very popular Medicare drug subsidy that was passed by a previous Democratic Congress enacted by the Biden administration. And this president has decided to end it, which means that costs will go up for those who are on Medicare. It shows you where their priorities are.

1:02:48It's always tax cuts for billionaires. We always have enough money for that. But when it comes to the health care of the American people, that's where they cut. All right. Democratic Congressman Brenda Boyle from Pennsylvania. Thank you. Thank you. And just ahead, families in anguish. The parents of Nolan Wells are begging for more information and the death of their son. They're united front today with the families of other black teens who dispute what authorities have said about their cases. That's next.

1:03:21We're going to get to the answers of what happened to Nolan Wells, what happened to Daniel Irvings and what happened to Tyler Smith. Three 18-year-old black boys in a three-month period around 4th of July. Well, that's civil rights attorney Ben Crump earlier today standing with families who dispute how their sons died. On the left is Nolan Wells, the Mississippi teen found dead after a day trip on the water with his friends. And in the middle is 18-year-old Daniel Irving. He drowned after jumping into a lake with friends near Dallas. Two teens who were with him now face charges of evidence tampering.

1:04:02And on the right is 18-year-old Tyler Smith, shot to death in Lexington, Kentucky. His family disputes Smith shot himself accidentally. All three families united in Nashville today. And as CNN's Ryan Young reports, the parents of Nolan Wells hoped to pursue leads in their son's case while also dealing with death threats. It has been 27 days since we have been able to talk to our son, to hug him, to tell him we love him. As Nola Wells' family mourns, many questions are still swirling around their son's death. The 18-year-old went on a Fourth of July boat trip with friends to Horn Island in Mississippi.

1:04:47He never made it home. Well's body was found two days later face down in the water near the shoreline of the island. His friends say he stayed behind to talk to a girl, but his phone and keys were not found with him. His phone was later recovered at one of his friend's homes. Nolan Well's parents, along with the families of two other young black teens, who say they died under suspicious circumstances, asked for more transparency. If Nolan was really your best friend, or for the people who said that he was their friend, please come forward. The initial comment from the sheriff on July 6th said, quote, no foul play was suspected in Wells' death, which fueled anger on social media.

1:05:26Initial results from an independent autopsy conducted by the family was deemed inconclusive because portions of Wells' body are still with the Mississippi State Medical Examiner's Office and toxicology reports are still pending. Investigators are also examining audio of an emergency call Wells' friends made while heading back to the mainland by boat, a recording that has gone viral. It looks like you're on Horn Island, correct? Yes, we are at Horn Island. All right. Is the boat sinking or you have it aground? We are sinking, yes. Is it aground is the question? No, we're not aground. We are in 17 foot of water.

1:06:01We're in 31 foot of water. All right, have to ask. And what do you want to do? Do you want to be towed back? I want to get this boat unsanked and towed back, yes. And Ben Crump said today they hired their own experts to review the background ion to see what might be useful to their investigation. In addition to suffering a loss of their child, Wells' parents have been the targets of threats. At this point, we refuse to allow that negativity to come into our home, to come into our hearts, our minds. We will not pay that back to the people who are giving it to us. Then a heated moment when a reporter asked if Attorney Ben Crump was just looking for money and fame.

1:06:40That accusation doesn't deserve a response. It has no dignity. associated with someone standing up for children who have died. We fight for justice and someone suggests all we want is publicity. For Nolan's parents and the other parents that spoke out today, they're asking for just one thing. We need people who are there, right? We need people who are there who actually witnessed it. Those are the people we need to call. All we want are answers. That's it. We just want answers. That's all we've ever wanted. That's all we've asked for this entire time.

1:07:20Pamela, you and I have talked about this story before. I can tell you being in that room, there were people who were crying. They were in tears. They were upset. They want to know the information. And this family actually said that some of those friends who were on that boat have reached out to the family. They didn't want to go point by point of who has reached out, but they had talked to some of them. And then on top of that, let's not forget, they have two young sons that they also want to have them understand why they were fighting so hard for their brother that they lost. But all three families now share something that none of these families should have to share.

1:07:50And that's a big question about why, what happened, and a search for the truth. Pamela? It's heartbreaking for those families. Ryan Young, thank you. And despite high-profile races, former President Barack Obama has been mostly quiet on the upcoming midterms until now. The first 2026 candidate to earn Obama's endorsement is coming up next right here on The Lead.

1:08:19And our politics lead, Iowa's Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate just got a major assist from President Obama. Next. I got it. You ready for me, Josh? I'm ready. Let's go. Are we playing horse or what? We're playing Iowa. I know a little something about winning Iowa. So that's Democrat Josh Turek, a Paralympian and state representative in Iowa. Turek is running against Congresswoman Ashley Henson, a Republican backed by Trump. Turek wants to flip the Senate seat when two term Republican senator Joni Ernst leaves in January. And Josh Turek joins us now. Nice to see you. Thank you for coming on.

1:09:02And so, first of all, former President Obama has endorsed very few candidates in this year's midterm elections. How did his endorsement come about here? You know, I ended up having a meal with one of President Obama's good friends, David Axelrod. And after meeting with me, he said, you know, I think it would be great if you made a connection with President Obama. He contacted President Obama and said, we've got a great candidate with a winnable race in Iowa. And we made the connection. President Obama knows ball. He loves ball. He knows Iowa. He knows how to win in Iowa. So it was a great connection.

1:09:38So a Fox poll shows you with a four-point lead over Republican Congresswoman Ashley Henson. While a New York Times poll has Henson ahead by just two points, Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly 20 years. This is an extremely tight race, to say the least, in a state that has traded Republican. Why do you believe you could pull up a win here? well one because i i represent the reddest district in the iowa legislature i've proven results of being able to win in red areas the two communities i represent trump won by 18 points and by 10 points i was able to win my district by nearly six but the reality is is that iowans are ready for change and they're ready to have a representative that is going to fight for them not just for the billionaires and large corporations or like ashley henson who in six years in dc has become up to 10 times more wealthy.

1:10:32She's voted for health care cuts. She's voted four times in favor of the tariffs, which have decimated rural communities, and six times voted in favor to continue this war in Iran, which is leading to increase in fuel prices, diesel, and fertilizer costs to our farmers. Iowans are ready for change. But what specifically would you do? Because you always often hear politicians say, I'm going to fight for the everyday American. But what What specifically would you do to make their lives better? I'm a common sense prairie populist. So for me, everything is about what is best for Iowa, what is best for the middle class, for our workers.

1:11:08First and foremost, a livable wage, raise the minimum wage. We need to drive private equity out of housing, out of health care. I would like to see us arrive at a public option in health care, negotiate a drug cost on pharmaceutical cost, help our rural communities. We need to pass a damn farm bill. We need mandatory country of origin labeling. I could go on and on. There's so much that we can do because right now what we have in Iowa is we have an economy that has basically hit the bottom, health care that has hit the bottom. The only thing that's going up is our cancer rates, and we lead the nation in farm foreclosures.

1:11:41And that's because we've had people like Ashley Hinson that are just looking out for the billionaires and large corporations. Iowans are ready to have someone that's going to be fighting for them. And of course, Ashley Henson, if she was here, she would say she is fighting on behalf of Iowans. But I want to go to the CNN poll that finds that Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are eager for change within the party. Nearly six in 10 of those voters say the party needs major changes, if not complete reform. What do you think your party is getting wrong? Well, I think the first and foremost, this comes down to a right candidate with the right message and the right work ethic.

1:12:19And I think you need to run candidates that match their state. And I believe that at least in Iowa, I'm quintessentially Iowan. But going forward, look, we used to be able to win in prairie states like Iowa. I think the way forward is we have to be, once again, the party of the people, the party of the middle class, the party of workers, not just corporate Democrats. And I think that's what my message is all about, is a common sense prairie populism, going out there and fighting for the issues that apply to 3.2 million Iowans. and focusing on these issues. It's about cost corruption, kitchen table issues, because this is what Iowans care about.

1:12:54Everywhere I'm going, urban areas, rural areas, Iowans are hurting. They're struggling just to keep a roof above their head and food on the table, and they're ready for change. All right, Josh Turek, thanks so much for coming on. Thanks for having me. And O 'Panel joins us now to further discuss. So Karen Finney, I want to start with you. Obama was the only Democratic presidential candidate to win Iowa in the past 25 years. How significant is his endorsement in this race? It's a very big deal. I mean, obviously, President Obama winning Iowa was historic and important to that race for a number of reasons.

1:13:30But one of the most important being the ground game and the way in which his team, I mean, I've heard them talk about their ground game and what they feel like they learned in Iowa during the 2007 contest in particular. So and like he said, he knows a little something about Iowa and knows a little something about some of the issues. You know, the other thing, though, with Turek that I thought was interesting was, I mean, what a cute way to with them sort of playing basketball is a way to bring in the athleticism of a Paralympian. I thought that was a nice touch there. Kristen Soltis Anderson, Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly 20 years.

1:14:11That's the bottom line. Yet these polls are showing Turek and Hinson separated by fewer than five points. Why is this race so close and where are Republicans losing ground in Iowa? Yeah, right now, a race like this is one where in a normal year that was, you know, reasonably neutral political environment, it would be a slam dunk for Republicans. Because even though it's a state that Barack Obama won, in political terms, that's ancient history. You know, Donald Trump won this state by a double digit margin. And that's why it is really the enormous shifts in the political environment in the last two years that have put this back on the map.

1:14:48This is a year where voters want big change. And that means that candidates really matter. Voters in Iowa have a very good candidate in Ashley Hinson on the Republican side. That there's just a very tough environment for all Republicans because voters are so hungry for change. Now, that said, candidates matter a lot in Texas, for instance, another state that Donald Trump did so well in. Fox polling came out today showing actually Republicans potentially struggling in that Senate race. That's one where Republicans have a flawed candidate in contrast to what they have in somebody like Ashley Hinson in Iowa.

1:15:20And so there's a bad political environment for Republicans, but good candidates can still hang on and do well despite it. Can I? So go ahead. Sorry, just real quick. I just want to add to that because I agree with everything you just said. But I also think there's another dynamic here. And it's very it echoes in my mind what we saw in 2006, where part of the argument is people want change, but they have to believe that you are the person who can deliver it. And so having good candidates is critically important. But part of what they also have to add to that is why can I trust you? And I think added to this atmosphere is the frustration that people feel towards Donald Trump, as we've seen in the sinking polling, and that they thought he was going to deliver one thing and they're getting something else.

1:16:07So, again, I think there's also this trust environment is important as well. I think I think that that's a fair point. Karen, I'm going to talk about this other poll. This is from CNN. It's a new poll and it shows that Democrats are leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by eight points among registered voters. But given President Trump's low approval rating and voters frustration with his priorities and his handling of the economy, is this eight point lead enough? Are you satisfied with that? I'm never satisfied until all the votes are counted and we know we won. But are they doing are Democrats doing enough to capitalize on the headwinds here?

1:16:42Well, I'm going to go back to exactly what I just said. It's a lot. A lot of this is about trust. And I think part of the one piece that I feel is missing from our message from Democrats is you have got to make the case that you that voters can trust you. Because remember, the anger that we've seen from the electorate, we saw it starting last year, right, not that long after Trump started dozing America. And people wanted to see the fight from Democrats. And so I think part of what we have to do to under in speaking to that anger and speaking to that desire for change, they've got to believe that you as the candidate can deliver.

1:17:19I think that's part of why also people who are seen as incumbents or this sort of anti-establishment sentiment is a problem for candidates. So they've also got to get out there and make sure you are knocking on doors, hitting the pavement and really talking to voters so they see you in their communities and not just on television ads. Kristen, you're a Republican pollster. What do you make of this finding? So plus eight for Democrats puts this around where the midterm elections were during Donald Trump's first term as president. At this stage of the cycle, Democrats were up by about seven points in the polling averages.

1:17:54So this is a little bit worse. And then you have to ask, what are the structural factors that are different? You know, we know there's been redistricting, so there may be less room for the tide to come out in terms of places like the House. In the Senate, it's a different set of states that are up this time than were up eight years ago. So I think even though you do not ever want to be the party that is down by eight, there is no way to sugarcoat that. That's a very bad number. There are also things that are still sort of structurally in Republicans' favor that I think are keeping this from being, oh, it's a slam dunk.

1:18:26It's over for Republicans. Let's all take our ball and go home. I think Republicans still have a fighting chance. It's going to be tough in the House. It's going to be tough in the Senate, no question. And there's no way to spin a political environment where you're down by eight. But there are, I think, individual races with good candidates that are going to help Republicans outperform in some key areas. All right. I'm going to throw a curveball in this discussion and toss to a preview of RFK Jr.'s new cooking show today. Let's look. I'm traveling across America connecting with renowned chefs to show families how to cook delicious, nutritious meals with real ingredients and all at affordable prices.

1:19:05America, it's time to eat real food. Let's get cooking. All right, ladies, will you be tuning into this? No, I would rather see him dealing with the measles crisis in this country, actually. Kristen? I love going to Serious Eats for my cooking advice. I got lots of cookbooks to make kitchens. That's probably where I'd go first. All right. Karen Fenney, Kristen Soltis Anderson, thank you both. Well, the apology from the State Department today. Did artificial intelligence cause the problem? That story up next.

1:19:47And lastly, tonight, a preview of that Trump photo you can opt for in your new passport. The State Department released this new version showing the president leaning over the resolute desk in the Oval Office. This new passport commemorates America's 250th anniversary and is available by request. Also tonight, the State Department says it made a quote, unfortunate error when it used a map at a conference in Brazil that incorrectly labeled six countries in Africa. A Reuters analysis shows it has an AI watermark and the State Department explained the slide was altered right before the presentation.

1:20:23And just for the record here, this is where Nigeria, Mozambique, Uganda, Ivory Coast, Malawi and Cameroon are. Just so you know. All right, you can follow the show on X and Instagram at The Lead CNN. If you ever miss an episode of The Lead, you can watch the show on the CNN app. Aaron Burnett Out Front starts right now.

1:20:48Go inside the sports moments that brought us together and made history. From the underdogs to the rivalries and the miracles, The new CNN original series, Decades in Sports. Watch back-to-back premieres August 2nd on CNN and next day on the CNN app.