Woman Sues Cornell and Chi Phi Fraternity Over Alleged Gang Rape

27:25We will rout the fake news media. Sounds quite a bit like the same thing. The administration compared the ad to previous PSAs, however, saying these are very clearly not campaign ads, even if Trump used the exact same language while campaigning in 2024. The GOP is betting big that Trump will be a driver for Republican voters in November, but they are facing something of a catch-22 because the president is also a big motivator for people who hate him, Democrats. And that can be a problem, especially when he and his family or his advisors, shall we say, drift off message. Take this past weekend, Trump's White House Deputy Chief of Staff, Dan Scavino, posting this AI-generated video of what seems to be a version of himself and his wife, along with Eric and Laura Trump.

28:11They're popping champagne dressed to the nines in a Golden Hotel luggage cart. FBI Director Kash Patel was also pictured in real photographs partying alongside Republicans at Trump's former personal lawyer and acting U.S. attorney Alina Haba at her third wedding, an extravagant affair at the Waldorf Astoria where she wed a Turkish billionaire. Speaking of lavish weddings, lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are saying they want to investigate the wedding of Donald Trump Jr. after that ProPublica report that a Russian oligarch with connections to Putin funded the island wedding party. Here's what North Carolina Republican Senator Tom Tillis told me yesterday.

28:52Come on, guys. This is amateur hour at a time when we need our pros on the field. We've got an election we need to win in 37 days. how this helped, I can't imagine. So yeah, I think taking a look at it, maybe Don Jr. can give us a reasonable example for why tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars from an oligarch went into a wedding in some beach location. But boy, I'd sure like to see the rationale behind it on its face. It doesn't look very smart. This all while American voters are paying on average$4.47 for a gallon of gas up almost$1.50 from before the war, which started seven months ago today.

29:30Ground beef is up$1.27 per pound since Trump took office. And on Election Day, that's a little more than a month away. Joining me now, Republican Congressman Mike Flood from Nebraska. Congressman, do you think November is going to be, as one Trump advisor put it, effing tough for Republicans? Well, I think October is a political lifetime. There's a lot of things that can happen between now and Election Day. Certainly, we need to get out and tell people that, you know, we passed the largest tax cut in American history. We doubled the child tax credit to$2 ,200 per child. We got rid of taxes on tips and overtime and for most seniors on Social Security.

30:08And you can now transition the family farm without federal estate tax dollars or tax penalties in most situations in America. So there's a lot of things we have to get the message out about. Certainly, to your point, on the dashboard, there's a bright red light that's blinking and that's diesel fuel. And the message. and you're very on message, and I totally understand it and respect it, of the achievements as you see them in the Big Beautiful Bill, as it was called. Do you think that the president is on message like you are? Do you think that his team, Dan Scavino, Cash Patel, others that have posted photographs, Don Jr., do you think they are talking about no tax on tips the way that you are?

30:55I don't live on X or Facebook. or I can't control what anybody else puts on there. I have to think every night when the president and his team, just like every member of Congress goes to bed, we want to tell the American people what we did. We did what everybody thought wouldn't be possible. We passed this big bill. It has wide ranging ramifications. We cut$2 trillion in spending. But beyond that, we also passed 11.5 % of all of that appropriation with the Democrats. We have done more. We passed sweeping housing legislation that became law. Americans need to know that our message on affordability is we are increasing housing supply.

31:38We are bringing down costs. As it relates to diesel, everything should be on the table. I think you see Republicans and Democrats all over this country recognizing that it ripples through the economy. It certainly does. I'm open minded to see what's out there. As far as coming back to Washington, show me a plan that involves the Senate and I'm all for it. Nebraska Republican Congressman Mike Flood, thank you, sir. Always appreciate your coming on. This programming note, CNN is hosting a debate in the California race for governor. I'm going to moderate alongside CNN's Stan Abash coming up this Wednesday night, 9 Eastern, 6 Pacific.

32:09Look for that live here on CNN and streaming on the CNN All Access app. Still ahead, the new video message from Angela Paxton, her message to women in her state today after divorcing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Senate nominee from the Republican Party in Texas, divorcing him on, quote, biblical grounds.

33:05switch. My name is David Chang and I've been a chef for over 25 years before algorithms, finding something good to eat, been getting out in the world and looking for it. So I'm picking up my friends, hitting the road and seeing what's out there. The Detour with David Chang on CNN, now streaming with an all access subscription. We're back with the politics lead in a curious moment. The estranged wife of Texas Republican Senate candidate and current state attorney general Ken Paxton, seeming to back his election, kind of. Angela Paxton herself is a Texas state senator. She filed for divorce last year, citing, quote, biblical grounds.

33:39She accused Ken Paxton of adultery. But in a recent speech, she urged conservative women to back Republican candidates, quote, even if we're mad at them, unquote. Ken Paxton, you'll note, was impeached by the Texas State House in 2023 over allegations of bribery and improper influence related to a donor. Also included in the allegations was that Paxton had a girlfriend outside his marriage, whom that donor hired as a favor to Paxton. He was acquitted by the Texas State Senate, but the scandal's front and center in this year's Senate race. I'm not lost on those who preferred Paxton's primary challenger, incumbent Senator John Cornyn.

34:16if john cornyn were the nominee this race would be over but um you know when you got a guy who's got multiple girlfriends and two hundred thousand dollars worth of improvements in his house from a corrupt business guy for whom he does favors bring in cnn's arlette signs arlette angela paxton's speech was titled the elephant in the room but she didn't specifically name the elephant no she didn't, but there's no question who she was referring to as her estranged husband, Ken Paxson, is perhaps one of the most controversial candidates on the ballot in Texas. This is really notable, even though she didn't mention his name, it's still a reference to this race, which she really has not made at all during this general election or during the primary contest.

35:00Now, Angela Paxton, she's a state senator, she was speaking to a group of Republican women recently where she said that they may be conflicted about certain Republican candidates, but they still needed to think about the party seat that is in play in this election. Take a listen to what she had to say. The reality is, while we are the party of values, we have some vulnerabilities on our ballot. I'll be honest with you. I think Republican women will decide this election because some of those vulnerabilities, I think, have been particularly alienating to women. We have more control over that seat and the future when we control the seat, when it's still in the family, even if we're mad at it.

35:54Now, these comments come as there is a lot of anxiety among Republicans about whether they will be able to hold onto the seat with Ken Paxton at the top of the ticket in that Senate race. He has really been weighed down by a host of controversies, including allegations about infidelity. There was that impeachment that went through and was later he was acquitted on that during his time. But this is something that Republicans had warned a lot about, that his controversies wouldn't sit well with Republican voters. And in fact, as you heard from Karl Rove there, this was an argument that people were making back in the GOP primary when he was running against Senator John Cornyn.

36:30Cornyn had run ads talking about Paxton's dirty deeds. At the time, Paxton's daughter put out a video saying that her father isn't a perfect man, but that they do think that he is a good person. This all comes to, as you are seeing, Republicans pour so much money into the state of Texas right now. I looked it up right before we came on the air. Senate Leadership Fund, they have a group that is running$124 million worth of ads to try to boost Paxton in this final stretch. That is money that a lot of Republican strategists wish that they were spending elsewhere, not necessarily in a red state like Texas.

37:07But Paxton's controversies could really be a hindrance to him going forward in this race. We'll see how this all plays out in the next five weeks. Arlette Saenz, thanks so much. Today, CNN is announcing today a town hall with the Democrat in the race, Texas Senate candidate James Tallarico. We have, of course, extended an invitation to Ken Paxton as well. The Town Hall with Tallarico will be moderated by CNN's Aaron Burnett. It will be live Wednesday, October 14th at 8 Eastern, live here on CNN and on the CNN All Access app. Yesterday, the U.S. Attorney General tried to justify the president's ban on news outlets that he deemed too negative by claiming that the reporting of We Here at CNN and MSNOW and Politico constitute a national security problem.

37:58The judge who just last week pointed out how unconstitutional the ban was, whom Trump appointed to the bench, by the way, did not agree with the national security arguments. Despite that, the Trump administration continues to make this national security argument. Here's what Attorney General Blanche said yesterday on ABC. That is what is a national security problem. When you have completely misinformation, complete misinformation coming out of the White House, that affects our relationship with our foreign partners. That affects our relationship with our foreign enemies. When you have complete misinformation coming out of the White House, that affects our relationship with our foreign partners, that affects our relationship with our foreign enemies, and therefore it's a national security problem.

38:39You see this sometimes in politics, especially with this White House, a Cabinet Secretary trying to squeeze a round peg into a square hole. In this case, the failed and not credible national security argument behind the ban, that's a round peg, into the square hole of the president's stated justification for the ban. There's something wrong with a country that can allow people to write purposely negative stories. Now, set aside when it comes to Blanche's argument about misinformation, set aside for a moment, that the biggest purveyor of misinformation from the White House is President Trump, with tens of thousands of documented lies that we are all, all too familiar with by now.

39:27The millions of votes illegally stuffed into ballot boxes and all caught on government cameras. Millions of votes were cast illegally in the swing states alone. It's going to disappear. One day it's like a miracle. It will disappear. I'm going to put tariffs on other countries coming into our country. And that has nothing to do with taxes to us. That's a tax on another country. Moving along from that regrettable fact of the president's prevarication is the question of who decides what is misinformation in journalism? him. Is it Attorney General Blanche? Now, Trump acknowledges that he was banning us from the White House.

40:11A very simple ban. I don't want him in my office. I don't want him here. I would say the ban would go as far as you can. Attorney General Blanche said this. Well, the president hasn't denied access. That's not the right way to describe it. It isn't. Last month, Blanche told NBC that President Trump had never told the Justice Department who to prosecute. The president will never ask me to do something unethical or illegal. He never has. He never will. Of course, that ignores that we all saw President Trump sending then Attorney General Pam Bondi, Blanche was the deputy attorney general at the time, calling for the prosecutions of Democratic Senator Adam Schiff and New York Attorney General Letitia James and former FBI Director James Comey.

41:00I think it's fair to say that Todd Blanch doesn't necessarily have the firmest grasp on what facts are as relate to President Trump. And that's why this decision is not supposed to be up to the leaders whom we are covering. I get that President Trump would prefer a press corps made up entirely of Fox and Breitbart, but that's decidedly not what the founding fathers had in mind. They made it clear they thought a free and adversarial press was necessary. James Madison called journalists covering politicians, quote, the only effectual guardian of every other right. The only security of all is in a free press, Thomas Jefferson told the Marquis de Lafayette.

41:39What Trump and his chief law enforcement officer are expressing when it comes to the press is contrary to the values espoused by Madison and Jefferson. When leaders attempt to silence journalism, they reveal a profound fear of the very accountability that the Constitution was designed to enforce. Joining us to talk about this now is CNN senior legal analyst Ellie Honig. He's a former assistant U.S. attorney in the Southern District of New York. Ellie, Blanche now claims that the president's press ban is motivated by national security concerns in the fact that we cover things that they don't like.

42:14How did that argument play in court? Well, Jake, the national security claim that we're hearing here is a pretext. It is something that was made up after the fact to try to justify the press ban. And that's not my conclusion. That's the conclusion of the federal district court judge you referenced earlier, Judge Timothy Kelly, a Trump nominee. In his opinion, Judge Kelly says specifically, and I quote, there is nothing in the record, end quote, to support this national security claim. And in fact, the reality is Donald Trump spent the first three days of the ban saying explicitly the reason for the ban.

42:47I don't like their coverage. Too unfavorable. Not nice enough to me, essentially. And only later did they throw in the national security claim. And the thing is, Todd Blanche does the exact same thing in that interview you showed. In one breath, he will say, well, CNN's reporting is a national security threat. And seconds later, he's saying, and we don't like it. They're overly unfavorable to us. So even Blanche is not able to keep up this pretext. Blanche also claimed that the president had not denied access to the press and that, quote, it is a privilege and not a right to be at the White House.

43:18Is he right as a matter of constitutional law? Well, that's the exact same first line of the losing brief that the president's team submitted. It's a privilege, not a right to access the White House. As a matter of law, whatever you call it, the press is entitled to due process before they're removed from the White House, from the Oval Office from any of that. That's exactly the basis for the judge's decision. And in this case, there was zero due process. The entirety of due process was Donald Trump's true social post. And the judge says, you can't do it that way. There have to be known rules.

43:50There has to be an opportunity to contest the ban. And what the White House said in this case is, well, they acknowledged there was no due process. They say, we're going to create post-deprivation process, meaning first we're going to deprive you of your rights, and then we're going to invent some process after the fact. And Judge Kelly said, that's not the way it works. That's not what due process is all about. Kelly Honig, thanks so much. Appreciate it. Still ahead, the fight for control of Congress down to just 36 days earlier, we heard from a House Republican. Up next, we're going to hear from a Senate Democrat on the chances of a Democratic victory in November.

44:21Also ahead, the top prosecutor who's reopening this disturbing gang rape case at Cornell. We're back in a moment.

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45:10That is a quote from Trump's Truth Social post coming 36 days until midterm election day. Trump's advisors are betting on him to get enough base voters out to the polls. This as a new Trump taxpayer funded ad hit the airwaves over the weekend. A video sounding quite similar to a message delivered during Trump's 2024 campaign. He was part of it.

45:35we will liberate america from these villains once and for all with approval ratings at an all-time low and a largely unpopular war with iran consumer confidence down quite a bit and three-quarters of the american people thinking the country is on the wrong track trump advisors privately are acknowledging that there is little expectation that the president can win over large numbers of independents and swing voters. Despite that, President Trump's team is planning an aggressive campaign schedule for Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in both battleground and in deep red states alike. Let's bring in CNN's Chief White House Correspondent Caitlin Collins.

46:12Caitlin, when talking about the midterms, one Trump advisor told CNN, quote, it's obviously going to be effing rough, except the UCK were mentioned. So why exactly do they think Trump is the best answer to help Republicans keep control of Congress when he is so unpopular? Well, probably because the president thinks that, Jake, and he has seen polls before where he's been down and believes that they're wrong or fake or just misguided in his view and believes that he is actually the best person to help his party when it comes to maintaining control of Congress. And the president himself was asked about the midterms today, Jake.

46:48So, yes, that might be what his advisers are saying privately. But this is what the president said today publicly. We have the best economic numbers. We have Iran. We'll never have a nuclear weapon. We're going to win that war very soon. That'll be over. And the gas prices will come tumbling down. So nobody else could have done that. Now, Jake, obviously that is an argument the president has been making about gas prices, that they'll come down as soon as the war is over. The problem is it's not really clear to voters when the war is going to be over. It's not clear that it's clear to the White House when it's going to be over.

47:25And so we'll see if voters buy the president's message there in terms of what the economic outlook is going to be. But we do know what the polls show, and they've been widespread through many different outlets and different polling companies that have not indicated good things coming in November for the president or for his party. And I think part of just how this is clearly an indication that has spread to the West Wing is obvious is this new ad that the White House is putting out, now their second ad, that is a taxpayer-funded ad. The White House is running, arguing that the president and his party should stay in power, basically, Jake.

47:59And it's something that even Republicans are criticizing, including John Kennedy of Louisiana, who said you can't spend public money to promote yourself, as he told CBS News yesterday. John Thune also criticizing it as well. But really the question, Jake, with that ad beyond just, you know, is it ethical to be spending taxpayer dollars on such a political, overtly political ad, is also whether or not it's going to make a difference. When you look at the numbers and you see what the president is arguing, they are basically saying the economic numbers are really good and the polls are fake. I mean, these are Americans who are going to show whether or not those polls are true or not when they go and vote in November.

48:36and a lot of that obviously has to do with affordability, with gas prices, and with how they're viewing the handling of the war in Iran. Kaitlin Collins, thanks so much. Don't miss Kaitlin on her fantastic show. The source with Kaitlin Collins, her guest tonight, includes Charles Spencer, Princess Diana's brother, who has a new book out. That's tonight at 9 Eastern, only on CNN. My next guest is demanding answers about these Trump taxpayer-funded ads. Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan of the great state of New Hampshire joins us now. Senator, before this latest Trump video came out, You sent a letter last week to White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles about the previous one.

49:10Have you gotten any sort of response? No, I'm not waiting with bated breath for the White House to respond. As we know, they don't think they're accountable to Congress. But here's what the American people know. Donald Trump is using their money, taxpayer money, to fund an ad promoting himself. It's propaganda. It's political. It's not lawful. and right now our latest figure is he has spent at least$1.7 million of taxpayer money on these ads and it needs to stop. It isn't going to keep the American people from understanding how bad the economy is and how many campaign promises Donald Trump has broken.

49:52In a similar response to a previous Trump video, the White House says this latest ad is quote educational and unapologetically patriotic, we should be proud of our country. What do you make of that argument? I think the American people know a political ad when they see it. And this response from the White House is just insulting. And it's really adding insult to injury because people are struggling so much right now. This is millions of dollars of their money, along with the other vanity projects that Donald Trump has undertaken. We did at the Joint Economic Committee an analysis of the cost of vanity projects like a new ballroom, the reflecting pool, a bunch of the other things that Trump has done.

50:35That's about a$1.8 million total. And people can see what that money could pay for, school lunches, rent, child care for people, by going to Hassan.Senate.gov, because we have an interactive calculator where people can see what that$1.8 million in vanity spending that he's already done could actually cover that would help the American people make ends meet at the end of the month. So I know well from having lived in New Hampshire and traveling there frequently, it's a purple state. And your colleague, Senator Shaheen, was here last week. She's a little worried. She's retiring and she's a little worried about the race to replace her.

51:17There is some new polling suggesting that Democratic Congressman Chris Pappas, who is the Democratic nominee and former Senator John Sununu, who is the Republican nominee, that Pappas has a narrow lead over Sununu by eight points, but with the margin of error, it's pretty close. Do you think, how worried are you about the Senate seat in New Hampshire going Republican? Look, first of all, New Hampshire is a purple state and we have wicked close races. I won my seat in the Senate in 2016 by a little over a thousand votes. So this is a really close race. The Republicans are relying on a well-known political dynasty's name in New Hampshire.

52:02And people are needing to be reminded of the things that John Sununu stands for. He's arguing that the Affordable Care Act isn't any good, which would take us back to a time when people with preexisting conditions couldn't get health insurance. He was one of the architects of privatizing, trying to privatize Social Security with President George W. Bush. Chris Pappas is of New Hampshire, knows New Hampshire, serves New Hampshire, small business owner, and is really out there talking to people. And the New Hampshire voters know how expensive things are, that the country is on the wrong track. They don't want taxpayer dollars used for political ads or vanity projects either.

52:43They're just trying to build a better future for themselves. Chris Pappas knows that that's what his priorities are and should be. And John Sununu is trying to pretend he's something he's not. It's going to be a close race, but this is about people getting out and voting. If people are dismayed right now with the direction of the country, and they should be, they need to get out and vote. And we know that the administration, the Trump administration, is going to do its best to make that difficult, even purge people from voter rolls. So people need to make sure they're registered and they need to have a plan to vote and vote early if they can.

53:17You're on the Senate Homeland Security Committee. What was your reaction to the news of the alleged terrorist plot near the U.S. base in England, the same base where the U.S. uses to launch attacks on Iran? And why were the five suspects released? This is a really serious issue. Counterterrorism is one of my areas of focus. Unfortunately, the Trump administration has been focusing so much on illicit interior enforcement with ICE, people shooting down folks in the street, that they are taking their eye off the ball. And we are working really hard to learn why the suspects were released. Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire, thank you so much.

54:00Appreciate it. Today marks seven months since the start of the Iran war and seven months since that deadly U.S. strike against the Iranian school that killed more than 160 children. Coming up, a reporter is going to lay out how the site of that strike ended up as a target.

54:24In our world lead, it has been seven months today since a U.S. missile struck an elementary school in Minab, Iran, in the opening hours of the war, killing at least 168 children and 14 teachers, according to Iran's state media. A U.N. report recently concluded that the deadly strike may have actually constituted a war crime. The Trump administration told CNN it does not give credibility to the U.N. findings. To date, not one U.S. official has claimed any responsibility for those lives lost in Manab. The Pentagon says an investigation is ongoing. They've been saying that for quite a bit now. Bloomberg News spoke to officials with direct involvement in the investigation who said, quote, the strike didn't result from a single catastrophic decision, but an accumulation of smaller ones, unquote.

55:12Bloomberg News, Ben Bartonstein joins me now. Ben, thanks for joining us. What you lay out in this smaller accumulation is a kill chain process of determining targets. From what you learned in writing your story, how did the Manab School end up on this final end list of targets? Well, Jake, yeah, that's a great question. It's something that we set out to try to understand over the past six months. The context you laid out is really important. When we look back, we're looking at, at least in terms of child casualties, the deadliest American military targeting error of the 21st century. So there's a lot of folks who are seeking answers and accountability.

55:56It's not just the families of the children, these seven, eight, nine-year-old girls and boys who were killed who are seeking these answers. So as we sought to reconstruct why the U.S. military would attack an Iranian school, we were both trying to understand what Pentagon investigators were finding, as well as other sources with knowledge of the events. And the Pentagon investigators have identified, as you said, a cascade of preventable failures. This includes both intelligence issues from the Defense Intelligence Agency, a misclassification, still identifying the site as an IRGC naval facility, but also outdated imagery and an over-reliance in artificial intelligence in the form of Maven Smart System, which is made by Palantir Technologies.

56:44Of course, another wrinkle to this is the reductions in civilian harm mitigation personnel since the Trump administration took office. Reductions by about 90 percent overall from more than 200 down to fewer than 20. Of course, within CENTCOM itself, these reductions meant that the team went from 10 down to one. And that one individual, our reporting found, was not involved in planning or operations ahead of this strike. That's not to say that this team on its own necessarily could have prevented the failure. But these are specialists, folks with the technical expertise to identify civilian sites.

57:22They can add some of the cultural context. For instance, the fact that a Saturday morning is the start of the Iranian school week and there would be more civilians present at the time. So a lot of additional nuance that could have potentially prevented this failure. Let's talk for a second about Maven Smart System. As you noted, it's an AI software made by Palantir. What did you learn about Maven's involvement in this strike? How much was this target picked by AI? Well, yeah, it's important to unpack the nuances there. So in the past few years, the Pentagon has really ramped up the adoption of Maven, and Maven really sits at the center of the kill chain.

58:05So you have these intelligence inputs that are going in on the front end of the kill chain. Then MAVEN really helps Pentagon personnel expedite the processing of all these dozens of different intel inputs to make decisions at a faster pace. But there are still humans on the back end of the kill chain who are still ultimately making their own assessments before a targeting decision is made. So our reporting found that the DIA had this classification of the site as an IRGC naval facility. MAVEN failed to suddenly discount that site and flag any of the intelligence and consistencies that some of the CENTCOM personnel expected it to.

58:46It also failed to flag the outdated imagery that was leading this misclassification to occur in the first place. But still at the back end of the kill chain, there were still humans who were ultimately making the final decisions and answering the tough questions of whether this was a legal military target that the U.S. was willing to strike. All right, Ben Bartonstein, thank you so much. Really appreciate it. Thanks for having me. Coming up next, I'm going to speak with the New York prosecutor who has announced that he's reopening this disturbing case of the alleged gang rape at Cornell University.

59:21We're going to ask, of course, why charges were not filed when the case first surfaced two years ago.

59:33In our politics lead, cue the music, please. The CNN election jam. Republicans hope to turn things around 36 days in the next 36 days. That's when election day is. But in the White House, CNN has learned that there's some sagging hope, shall we say, among President Trump's inner circle, that Republicans can win this battle for Congress, given the president's all-time low approval numbers, and as Republican candidates are increasingly openly breaking with him in the White House. Let's get some more analysis on the state of the battle for Congress with our panel. So, Lulu, let's start. One of the key close Senate races we're watching is in Iowa, where a recent Marist poll shows Democrat Josh Turek with an eight-point lead over Republican Ashley Hinson.

1:00:17Today, Hinson joined Trump in the Oval Office, where he touted a plan to build a$15 billion steel plant there, the largest in U.N. history. And he said this about the race. First of all, the polls are fake. When you see somebody like Ashley, one of the greatest politicians, you'll see it. She'll be one of the greatest politicians in America. Now, it is true that about a year ago, people would think Ashley Hinson, that's a cakewalk. She's attractive. She's smart. Local TV anchor, popular incumbent congresswoman. But now it it really does seem like she's in trouble. Well, I was about to say, it is also true that polls have not been great.

1:01:02So I will also just want to caveat all of this with... The quality of the polls. The quality of the polls. Iowa's tough to poll. Iowa's tough to poll. So I don't know. But I will say that all indications are both anecdotal and through every other metric that people are really mad and they're hurting and they want to punish the people that they feel are responsible for that. And those are Republicans because you can't say it enough. They control all three branches of government and also obviously in Iowa are very strongly represented. And so it is fascinating to think how much this has swung in such a short period of time.

1:01:41And I think there's one answer for that. And it's not just affordability. You can really look at the war in Iran as a moment when things just started to go south. So, Bob, I agree. I don't look a lot at the polls. I haven't really trusted them much since 2016. But I will say what I do believe is how politicians behave. Because their polling is much better and much more intense. And they know what's going on with their voters much better than public polls. They spend a lot more money than we do. And Iowa Republicans are acting funky. I mean, two of them voted, if not three of them, voted against Trump's war in Iran.

1:02:21Ashley Hinson's running these ads about how bipartisan she's going to be. This is in red Iowa. Yeah, and this is consistent in red states. And I agree in 2022, the last midterm, the polls were off. We were going to get a big red wave. That didn't happen. But Hinson has broken with the president publicly on tariffs as well as the war. And I agree with you. Like a year ago, no one was talking about the Senate flipping. The House definitely. And now more people than I, you know, are at 50 % that it's going to flip, maybe 60%. So it's that's why they're breaking with him. So Trump is putting these Republicans in such a tough spot.

1:02:56Do they appear with him? We're not. They need his base, but yet they have to be independent. It's very difficult for them. It's a dance. It's a dance. It's such a hard dance because also the president doesn't help their cause. I mean, if you remember when Nancy Pelosi was being made the villain of the right, she would tell candidates, you know, if you have to condemn me, if you have to break with me. Say whatever you want. Say whatever you want. Just win. Like she was very brass tacks. But that's not the president of the United States right now. He does not accept this kind of bargain. So they're in a tough spot.

1:03:27Speaking of keeping away, there's a lot of excitement on the progressive left about Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez possibly running for president in 2028. And she certainly has encouraged some of that with things that she said and done. She went in upstate New York to campaign. Maybe she'll run for Senate. Who knows? But also talking about, like, how you don't necessarily get to pick your time. But look at this headline from Axios. Swing state Democrats shun AOC in fall campaigns. This story from Axios features a Democratic strategist saying the polling for her in their areas is atrocious.

1:04:03One of the examples in the story from a Montana Democratic House candidate, Sam Forstag, who Ocasio-Cortez endorsed and traveled to Montana to campaign for in May. He's now scrubbed her endorsement from his campaign website. What do you think of that? I think that she is suffering from what has been a really big focus for Republicans, which is, let's focus on Democratic socialism and let's make it communism. And let's talk about it in a way that is as scary as possible. And she, of course, is the most visible person, the most prominent person who is an adherent to that strain of the Democratic Party.

1:04:42Most visible person under the age of 80. Under the age of 80, indeed, of course, Bernie Sanders. But he's an independent. He's not a Democrat, as we should say. But, you know, I do think that she is dealing with that. But it also shows the headwinds that someone like she might face if she decides to run for president, which is why all bets now are saying she's going to run for Senate and try and give Chuck Schumer a run for his money. What do you think? I'm not so sure. I wrote a column on her recently. I'm not so sure she's even made the decision yet. Oh, I don't think she has. And she, I mean, could she win a presidential primary?

1:05:14Yes, especially with 20 Democrats who run. She could win with 30, 35 percent of the vote. At the same time, her greatest weakness, as evidenced by that news, is her electability. And I've talked to a number of Democrats who say, listen, we need a white male governor. We need to win in 2028. And whether that's wrong or not, but people are very concerned that she would not be electable in a general. I don't think, is it really about her gender or is it about her progressive credentials? I think it's an about, I think. I hear that from Democratic women. I hear that from Democratic women. I don't support it.

1:05:48I'm not saying you do. But let me just be on the record of saying that is depressing me. You don't hear that from Democratic women, that they want to nominate a man because Kamala and Hillary lost? Yes, of course. But I don't know that that is the answer that we should take from that. You know, I obviously and I don't care if they're Republican or a Democrat. I would like to see a female president of this country. And I don't think that we are too far gone that we can't see one. obviously she herself AOC herself has said and acknowledged that she faces headwinds because of her gender, because of her ethnicity being Latina that there is compounded issues with that but I just, I don't know, I don't want to feed into the narrative She also, and this is not a criticism, but she also looks like she's 27, I mean like she looks really young, she is not, she's 35 I think, but like She's almost 38 But she's older than 35 The key there, everyone stand by I want to bring in Dave Wasserman, he's a senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report.

1:06:47Thanks for joining us. So I want to play something your boss, Charlie Cook, said about the state of the midterm race. Take a listen. I agree completely that the House has been kind of a done deal for a good while. But the Senate, a year ago, it wasn't realistic to think that the Senate might flip. But now it's very realistic. Dave, what states do you think give Democrats the best shot at flipping the Senate? Yeah, Jake, it used to be that Democrats needed to win both North Carolina and Maine, then two of the four of the red quartet of states that Trump carried by between 11 and 14 points of Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas.

1:07:30Now, Maine and Michigan are in some question for Democrats, I think Maine more so than Michigan. And that means if Susan Collins does hang on and win, Democrats need to win three of five states that are now double-digit Trump states that are in play. I've added Kansas onto that list. And it's looking like Democrats are in good shape right now in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is leading, in Alaska, where Mary Peltola has benefited from this split Republican opposition with a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot. And even though Texas and Iowa look good for Democrats in the polls today, I think those are going to be tougher for them to win, while Kansas has leapfrogged Nebraska as Democrats' best long shot opportunity.

1:08:17So they have multiple paths to get there. But my sense, Jake, it's either going to be Democrats come up short by a seat or they win all of these races and get to 54. Republicans seem to think that they have a real shot at winning Michigan and New Hampshire. You sound skeptical of Michigan. How do you view those races, New Hampshire and Michigan? Yeah, these are open seats that Democrats are defending. And although they're closing the polls right now, what I think gives Democrats the edge at the end of the day is where Trump's approval rating is among independents and the undecided cohorts in these places.

1:08:55There's no doubt John Sununu benefits from his last name as a Republican in New Hampshire. Democrats nominee Chris Pappas is pretty much a standard mainstream Democrat. And although they're close, what we know is that Trump's approval rating among the people who are undecided, which is close to 10 percent, is in the 20s. And I have a very hard time seeing those independents and undecideds breaking towards a Republican, given that he represents the president's party. The dynamic in Michigan is that Abdul El-Sayed has had to mend fences. He won the Democratic primary by less than a point. He is an avowed progressive.

1:09:37But the Canadian trade war, these tariffs on Canadian goods have a big impact on Michigan's economy. And Mike Rogers has had to adopt a very nuanced position. I think that ends up tipping the race to Democrats by a little bit. So Charlie Cook says the House is a done deal. Democrats are going to win the House. Why are Democrats and so many analysts so confident about that when we're still more than a month away? Well, the president's approval rating in our tracker today is 38 percent, considering that Democrats only need to flip three seats to win a House majority. By historical measures, this would suggest that Democrats would end up with a massive majority.

1:10:18Now, we estimate that Republicans have improved their position in the House by about five seats, resulting from this gerrymandering war. It would have been six had Missouri gone the other way at the U.S. Supreme Court. What that means is that Democrats actually need to flip more like eight or nine Republican seats to win the House majority, not just three. But right now we have 18 Republican seats that are in toss up or lean Democrat. And so there are plenty of vulnerable Republican seats to get Democrats there. And I suspect if the election were held tomorrow, Democrats would end up somewhere in the 230 to 235 range.

1:10:57All right, Dave and Lulu and Bob, thank you so much. Appreciate it. The New York prosecutor in New York near Cornell relaunching that rape case, the gang rape case. That story is next and we're back in a moment.

1:11:17In our Law and Justice lead, prosecutors have reopened a 2024 gang rape investigation at the elite Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. This comes days after a former student sued Cornell and seven members of the Chi Phi fraternity, the woman identified only as Jane Doe, alleges that seven fraternity members drugged and sexually assaulted her at the fraternity house in October 2024, and that Cornell did not do enough to protect her. The complaint also alleges that the gentleman at the fraternity used a Snapchat group to invite other members to join the assault. to quote a text message from that chat, free pussy, one of the alleged rapists said.

1:12:01The woman reported the incident to Cornell University Police the following month, according to the complaint. Cornell suspended the chapter, but no fraternity members were criminally charged. The Tompkins County District Attorney Matthew Van Houten says he did not pursue criminal charges against the fraternity members at the time, 2024, because the woman did not say she was drugged or assaulted in her 2024 sworn statement. Tompkins County District Attorney Matthew Van Houten joins us now. Thank you so much for joining us. So you called the allegations in the new complaint, quote, dramatically different from the statement she gave the Cornell police in 2024.

1:12:37The attorney for Jane Doe told CNN that the 2024 police report was not materially different from the allegations in this new current complaint. What's your response? Well, having gone through the civil complaint very carefully, I can say that the main difference between the two statements is that the civil complaint omits any reference that Jane Doe consented to the sexual contact, which is in and contained in her six-page sworn statement that she gave to the Cornell investigator. So that's the significant difference. I understand that people's trauma develops over time, and it's been two years.

1:13:23We have not heard from Jane Doe or her attorneys during that time. But now that we know that she has filed this lawsuit and recognizing that trauma gives you insight and you heal in different ways as a human being, we want to reopen the investigation to ensure that she has the chance to speak her truth based on the insight she's gained over the last two years to the grand jury. You put out a statement today that included excerpts from the Cornell police report from 2024, correct? Well, not excerpts, but summarizing some of the important content from that, yes. So you said you referred to her consenting.

1:14:12And from what I read from the excerpts that you, or summaries, whatever, that you put out today, is that she consented to a threesome with two other guys. but she did not consent to the five other guys that came into the room and that she hid under the covers and she pushed one away and nothing that happened with those five other guys sounds consensual at all to me. Am I reading this wrong? Frankly, you are. When she was subjected, There were two instances she describes where someone touched her in a way that she didn't want them to touch her, and she told them no, and they did not continue. But consent or lack of consent is very specific under New York state law.

1:15:12You either have to be physically compelled or forcible compulsion, physical force, or you have to be physically helpless, which is unconscious, or you have to be mentally incapacitated, which is having been given drugs without your knowledge that rendered you incapable of consenting. None of those things were articulated in her initial statement. That being said, that's what we knew in 2024. Now we understand that she feels differently, and we want to talk with her. We want to give her a chance to speak her truth before the grand jury and tell the rest of the story, whatever information that she gained and insight she gained in the last two years.

1:16:02When did you get copies of the text messages that the fraternity brothers were sending each other that are part of her civil complaint? Well, that's the distinction there. It should be clarified that the question was, did she consent? The text messages were completely vulgar and disgusting, but they had nothing to do with her consent, which is the linchpin of, we did not see them initially. They were not part of our initial analysis, but I understand that Cornell had them and they sent them to our team. So this woman, after this incident happened, where five men that she did not want to be in the room come in, she describes herself at the end of the evening of being an eight on a scale of one to 10 on the intoxication scale.

1:17:03She shows up at the fraternity. She's a five before she begins the threesome with the two guys consensually. She's a five or a six. Then she's an eight at the end of it all. She says she did ketamine, but she didn't remember when she did it or who she did it with or why she did it. She doesn't remember any details, but she knows she did it the first time she did the ketamine, although it's a blur. She tells the Cornell police about this. This report goes to you, and yet you and your office don't interview her at all. You read the police report, put it down, and that's it? When you have a comprehensive six-page single-spaced document that was extremely detailed, extremely candid, extremely specific, we are not going to reach out to her and say, hey, what you said didn't allege a crime.

1:18:01Can you give us more so we can charge somebody? That's not ethical. That is not ethical for a prosecutor to do that. When you read this document, look, I understand that some people, including advocates for rape victims, refer to what you're talking about. They call it the voluntary intoxication loophole because in New York State, and people are trying to amend this, but it hasn't happened yet. In New York State, it generally requires that you can only not consent if you're intoxicated on substance that were administered to you without your knowledge. And that's the only way you can be mentally incapacitated to the degree that you can't consent.

1:18:46I find that law befuddling, to be completely honest, because that's certainly not how most people think of consent. But when you read this document that you put out, Jane Doe says at least four times she had difficult remembering what happened in her room. She's in this room. There are seven people in there. She only wanted to be with two of the guys. The text chain, one of the fraternity brothers refers to her in that room with other guys as, quote, free pussy. None of that made you think I should interview this woman. I should interview people at the fraternity that night. I should interview her sorority sisters.

1:19:36Not because you were trying to find somebody guilty of a crime, but just to get to the bottom of what happened, because you read this document and it's absolutely horrific. And it just, I would think that a district attorney would want to find out more. Well, it is absolutely horrific. You're 100 % right. We do not independently investigate crimes in the district attorney's office. We rely on the police to investigate those crimes. And the statement, without blaming her, she told the police candidly what she remembered. And maybe she remembers more now. And if she does, then we want to put that in front of the grand jury.

1:20:21But it's not – we can't push her to say something that she didn't say in the course of a six-page detailed statement. You're convening a grand jury. We can't push her to say something extra. You're convening a grand jury, so obviously you think it's possible a crime was committed. We want to understand, and we don't yet understand, what has happened since 2024. I've reached out to her attorney, to Jane Doe's attorney, and we've coordinated, we've discussed the fact that I would like her to testify at the grand jury. Between now and then, we need to understand what has changed, what insights that she has gained, what additional information is there that we didn't know in 2024.

1:21:05And that's why I want to put the matter in front of the grand jury so that she can tell her truth to the grand jury and include every piece of evidence. So you never talk to police and say, I'd like to find out more about what happened here. Can you talk to anybody else that was involved in the situation? That never happens? My team did not do that. I know, but I'm asking, do you do that sometimes? It does happen sometimes when there is a less complete story than what we had in the 2024. Well, there were eight people in that room. And you were eight people in that room. And you have the story of one woman who doesn't remember a lot of what happened because she was so intoxicated on alcohol and ketamine.

1:21:54She has gone to the police to say something happened to me. And it doesn't occur to you or any of the people who work for you to say, well, let's find out more about what happened because there are seven other people in that room. Maybe she was passed out during some of this. She can't remember. And certainly we need to get to the bottom of this. After all, look at these horrific text messages. That doesn't occur to anybody in your office? Well, let's back up a little bit, Jake, because you're mischaracterizing. There were never eight people in the room at one time. And that's important. Social media has described this in a way that distorts the facts.

1:22:38And you're contributing to that right now. I know that there was one time. I know there were seven men that were in the room at different periods of time. Correct? Well, that's different than what you just said. I said that there were seven people in the room.

1:22:57We can't rehash what you said. It's recorded. I said there were seven people in the room. Fine. Seven people in the room. What was the highest number of men that were in the room at one time? Four? That's more accurate. Okay. In any case, in aggregate... We're getting sidetracked. Well... The question is... The point is there were seven men in the room, whether they were all there at the same time or not. There were seven men in the room and there were four men at one point in the room. And there were three other men that were at different points in the room. And I am saying those men may have knowledge and other fraternity brothers may have knowledge of what happened to this woman.

1:23:42and I'm asking why you didn't tell Cornell police or local police to go talk to them to find out more about what happened, given that this woman went to the police to make a complaint, thinking that she had been assaulted, something had happened to her, she didn't know what exactly, and it's your responsibility as district attorney to get to the bottom of it and find out. That's why I'm confused. Well, we can't change what happened in the past as much as the community is outraged by what they've heard. But do you regret not interviewing any other witnesses? You know, when we have a detailed explanation of what happened, going out, first of all, telling the police to interview these individuals, They're going to exercise their constitutional right not to speak to the police.

1:24:40You don't know that. They did. Oh, you do? They spoke in the Title IX proceedings. We are making efforts to get the Title IX transcripts because if they spoke in that proceeding, that's evidence that we could potentially use in the grand jury. You know, I have a daughter. I can't imagine how mad I would be if a district attorney handled this case that way for my daughter. It's just, do you not acknowledge that your office dropped the ball by not looking more into what happened? I'm not saying I know what happened. I'm just saying based on the document you had the Cornell University Police Department complaint six pages single spaced.

1:25:31It makes me think oh my God this woman was at the very least assaulted doesn't remember things that happened. Who knows if she was even conscious for all of it. I want to know more about what happened and that's correct me if I'm wrong your job. my job under the New York state constitution is to apply the penal law of New York state. We are constrained by that law. Whether you agree with it, whether you think someone's conduct is morally repugnant or vulgar or disgusting, I'm still constrained by the law. That is my ethical duty. I get the loophole. I understand the loophole. I cited it. I get the loophole.

1:26:13I'm talking about the curiosity to find out what happened and to talk to local police, which you have acknowledged you do. Hey, I need to know more about what happened because this woman did ketamine twice, was an eight out of 10 on the intoxication chart, and doesn't remember a lot of what happened. And there's a group chat of fraternity brothers saying free pussy. Like that would make me think we need to do more to find out what happened because this sounds horrific. I understand about the intoxication loophole in New York, and it's insane that that exists. And I'm not holding you responsible for it.

1:26:49I'm talking about working with police to get to the bottom of what happened, which is now what you're trying to do two years later after this woman has hired an attorney and filed the civil case. Don't you regret not doing more? Well, let me push back on you one minute there because she, Jane Doe, remembered explicitly virtually everything that happened that evening. And the fact that Jane Doe retained an attorney, no one reached out to us. If she remembered more, if she had more insight in the last two years, that attorney knows very well how to contact my office to say she's dissatisfied with your decision.

1:27:31Let's sit down and talk. We would absolutely talk with her and figure out what the additional evidence is and pursue the grand jury. Well, she says she didn't remember everything that happened that night. And I would just say she went to the police and she thought that society was going to try to get to the bottom of it. And society failed her. Matthew Van Houten, thank you so much for your time and thank you for taking our questions. Given the gravity of this story, we do want to remind folks who may be dealing with any similar crisis in their past or currently, there are resources who can help you anytime at the RAINN Network.

1:28:10That's short for Rape, Abuse, Incest National Network, R-A-I-N-N. You can reach them anytime at RAINN.org with two N's, or you can call 1-800-656-HOPE. Let's go now to our world lead and a notable comment on the Sunday shows. President Trump continues to say, hey, we sell arms to other people around the world. He actually asked President Xi, would he like to buy some at one point? Sunday's comment by America's top envoy to Beijing appeared to catch President Trump by surprise earlier today To China? To China You mean to Taiwan? No, to China, that's what he said I never heard of that one, I'm going to have to ask him, you mean Winger's cell No, they probably like to buy it because we do make better equipment than them So maybe it's a good idea But we didn't discuss that It's also against U.S.

1:29:01law to sell arms to China Interesting Interesting. CNN Global Affairs analyst Brett McGurk joins us now. Brett, you have a new book out. We're going to talk about it. But what did you make of Trump saying maybe it's a good idea to sell weapons to China? I hope that was not a serious conversation. I mean, we just got it from the U.S. ambassador to China, said it. Chinese are from basically supporting Iran in the war against us, a very serious situation. The ballistic missile production in Russia and Iran are a serious threat, all with Chinese technology. That should be the focus of a presidential conversation.

1:29:33Last week, CNN reported that Iran has been increasingly effective in its missile strikes against U.S. military bases in the Middle East thanks to intelligence from Chinese groups. This is what the U.S. ambassador to China said when asked, what are the consequences if China does continue to assist Iran? Here's former Senator Perdue, ambassador to China Perdue. President Xi assured him that changes had been made, that they were looking into it, they had looked into it. And we see some improvement in that. But it's an ongoing effort that we have to make sure that they stay out of that. I mean, they're talking about it as if, like, President Xi is going in a swimming pool that he's not supposed to be going in.

1:30:12Chinese technology has enabled the Houthis, anti-ship ballistic missiles, which I cover in the book that's coming out next week, enabled Iranian missiles. This has been going on for two administrations, and it's extremely serious. So that should be the focus. We have Americans under attack. Anything China's doing to support our adversaries needs to stop. Hand me your book here. Let's show it off. Brink, Inside the Race to Free the October 7th. Hostages. It comes out next Tuesday. There's a fascinating excerpt out today in The Atlantic detailing how then-President Biden helped avoid a wider conflict in the Middle East by working with Israel to defeat an Iranian missile attack.

1:30:52Tell us about that and the phone calls between Biden and Netanyahu. Well, Jake, we were just talking about missile attacks, and I bring readers inside the situation room as we had 170 Iranian drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles heading to Israel. I described that scene in detail, what it was like, what it took to defeat that attack. And then President Biden talking to Prime Minister Netanyahu right after we helped defend Israel to say, now we've got to contain the situation, get back to the hostage and ceasefire talks. That's just one scene from this book. The excerpt's out today in Atlantic.

1:31:25And there's a lot more comes out next week. What else do you want people to know about in terms of the race to free the October 7th hostages? Because that was a long, long effort. We hear, by the way, we hear some, I don't know how to describe them, far left commentators saying that Hamas was ready to free the hostages on day one. I don't think that's true. The whole story's here in this book. We had a deal, Jake, in November, about a month after the war. All women and children come out. successful eight-day ceasefire war stopped aid is flowing throughout Gaza about 100 hostages came out Hamas refused to release the younger women that were part of the deal That's what broke that deal and those women then did not come out until the day before the inauguration of President Trump I tell that whole story was important to get the story right and look I'm tough on the Israelis too This is one of the most difficult horrific crisis.

1:32:13I've dealt with over 20 years in at multiple dimensions It's emotional. It's horrifying. It's polarizing But I really try to bring readers inside the room. You're inside the Oval Office. You're with the Prime Minister of Israel. You're in Doha with Hamas downstairs. You're in the situation where his missiles are flying. You are, Americans are under attack and being killed by Iranian drones. How do you stop that? I'm with the Iranians in Oman in secret backchannel talks. The reader gets a seat inside the room in this book, and the reader can make its own judgments. I remember President Biden going to Israel not long after the October 7th, 2023 attacks and telling Netanyahu, but also telling the Israeli people, basically, I'm paraphrasing, we gave into anger after September 11th.

1:32:59Don't you do the same thing? Well, again, the reader is there on that trip. But do you think they did the same thing? President Biden. You think the Israelis did? I think the Israelis face an impossible situation. I think Hamas prepared for this war for 20 years. And I think Israel made some big mistakes. But at the end of the day, Hamas started this war. Hamas could have ended this war at multiple points by releasing the hostages. And there were times, this is what's so tragic, there was times we were very close to a breakthrough and we couldn't quite get there. All right. Well, again, fascinating excerpt in The Atlantic that people can read right now.

1:33:29And the book, Brink, Inside the Race to Free the October 7th Hostages, comes out next Tuesday. It takes you inside all of the rooms where it happened. Brett McGurk, congratulations and thank you so much for being here. Our last lead start in our national lead. The FAA is investigating a rather scary moment for a United Airlines regional jet. Just after taking off yesterday from Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, the windshield cracked, glass started falling into the cockpit. Here's the pilot alerting air traffic control. Center, show 6309. We need to level out altitude right now. We'll be right back with you in a minute.

1:34:05We can delay the frequency change, please. We just had our glass break. We'll declare an emergency, sir. It looks like the glass busted completely through. It's just not a layer. We're going to slow down at 2.10 because the glass is actually falling inside. 72 people were on board the flight. The pilot made an emergency landing, and amazingly, no one was hurt. And our sports lead, an 11-year-old chess prodigy just became the youngest female grandmaster of all time. Bohana Sivanadan from England excelled at the 46th Chess Olympiad in Uzbekistan this weekend. The record continues her meteoric rise in the chess world.

1:34:41She told the International Chess Federation that she's keen to keep making history. Reminder, big night in politics coming up Wednesday at the CNN debate this week in California's race for governor. I'm going to moderate alongside CNN's Dan Abash. That's Wednesday night at 9 Eastern, 6 Pacific Live on CNN and streaming on the CNN All Access app. You can follow me on Facebook, Instagram, Fred's X, and on the TikTok at Jake Tapper. You can follow the show on X and Instagram at The Lead CNN. If you ever miss an episode of The Lead, you can watch the show on the CNN app. Aaron Burnett out front starts now.

1:35:30from an online listing lowballing you. Which means by the time I'm done explaining this, you could have basically done it.

1:35:41Still haven't started? Hey, better late than never. Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply. The news is better. We are in the toilet. Together. Hey, how do you think I feel? The Have I Got News For You crew is back to keep you safe. Do you think anyone here knows what you're talking about? Nope. Have I Got News for You, now streaming on the CNN app.