Abdul El-Sayed's TIGHT Michigan Win, Talarico's Texas Chances, and Tucker Carlson Teases NEW Party, with Mark Halperin | Ep. 1374

25:54It's something a lot of people don't want, but he's offering something. Mike Rogers is going to have to offer something or he's going to lose on the question of - That's very interesting. Now we're into it because the Republicans don't want to touch this with a 10 foot pole because they have no alternative. Correct. That's the problem, Mike Rogers, is because don't count on the Michigan press corps to say to the guy, when you say Medicare for all, who's paying for that? How does that interact with Obamacare? By the way, Medicare for all is elimination of private insurance. Bernie Sanders has made that clear.

26:31Bernie Sanders wrote the foreword to El Syed's book about this issue. OK, so this Medicare for all pie in the sky really means Medicaid for all. And it means you can kiss your private insurance. Goodbye. We're Canada. Right. So it's late primary, right? August, September, October. There's three months to go. If you think the Michigan press corps is going to get this guy to explain what he means. But for a lot of Michigan voters, Mike Rogers, like President Trump, like Mike Johnson, they're not offering anything. They're not saying to people in Michigan. We had somebody on two way the other day who lives near the Canadian border.

27:07She said, if you want to have a baby now, because our hospital closed, if you want to have a baby, you got to drive hours, hours and hours to have a baby. OK, I'm not saying it's Donald Trump's fault. I'm not saying it's the fault of the Affordable Care Act. There's a lot of blame to go around. What I'm saying is this guy's making part of his core argument. Medicare, which is a very popular program with a lot of people, even though it's got flaws. This guy's saying, I'm a doctor and I'm going to give everybody Medicare. And then you got Mike Rogers saying, hummina, hummina, hummina. So it's an issue.

27:41And I'd be curious. I'm trying to get a poll done in Michigan. One of the questions I want to ask is, who do you trust more to help your family with health care costs, Mike Rogers or Dr. El-Sayed? And I bet you that Mike Rogers wouldn't do well on that question today. Yeah, that's right. Right. Well, that's this guy's got the other, you know, veneer of being a doctor. He has a degree. He has an MD, but he never completed. He's not he's he's not doesn't he's not licensed to practice. He didn't do an internship or a fellowship or any of the training you need to become an attending physician. Can we agree he's more of a doctor than Dr.

28:16Jill Biden? Can we agree on that? He's more of a doctor than Dr. Jill. So am I. So for that matter, I actually have a jurist doctorate, which definitely beats the degree she had. But I don't think the GOP should be feeling all that comfortable. I actually think I'd be I'd be a little bit more worried about this guy than I would about the weird Haley Stevens. I just think I know she was more mainstream, but he's, you know, take it for what it's worth a sexier candidate. And he's sexier and the candidate of change in a cycle where the candidate of change is going to be experienced in most races.

28:54If that's if all other things being roughly equal. So I agree with you. I think she I think she would have struggled against Mike Rogers because she's a Washington creature of Washington. Being a creature of Washington is not on vogue. here's a little bit I mentioned Katie Porter earlier it's very sad both she and Haley Stevens are gone here's one clip that marries the two together Mark my team gives me what I want here it is yeah I mean I think you saw so much enthusiasm on the internet for Abdul El Saeed he's very charismatic he's been running a podcast he's let's face it he's good looking he's enthusiastic he's new to he's new in office you know Haley Stevens has been in Congress eight ears and she's being started with you she started with me and she's being styled here as the the establishment like career politician um and so i think you know you saw a lot of enthusiasm about el saeed as a new voice and that is i think good for the democratic party okay she she thinks he's good looking mark she i i didn't mean sexy physically but i think katie porter would say that in that way yeah uh she that seemed to have a little extra verve on that on that rhetorical point.

30:05I mean, this is the mindset. Katie Porter's of the establishment, even though she would tell you she's an outsider. This is the mindset. She says, she's not a Washington insider. She's only been in Congress for eight years. That's the mindset of the Democratic establishment. The question I keep asking people in the establishment, and I ask this when I ask the Republican establishment in 2016 and 2017. Don't be so angry at the outsider who won. Don't make excuses. Jeb was a bad candidate. Haley Stevens is a bad candidate. Ask yourself why in a job interview with the voters, the one with no experience is winning.

30:45They're not winning despite having no experience. They're winning because they have no experience. And for Katie Porter to say, oh, she's not a Washington insider, are only eight years. That's the mindset of the establishment. And that's why the Democrats don't quite understand, even as they embrace El Saeed today and say, yeah, we're all for him. They don't really understand why he won. Well, even last night on CNN, there was a debate between Axelrod and Van Jones about the AIPAC issue. That's spicy. And you, like, I can't believe Van Jones is still holding on it. Because, like, the Republican Party is still pro-Israel by the numbers, though far less than it used to be.

31:24But the Democrat Party has entirely turned on Israel. So have the independents. I was actually surprised to hear Van Jones holding on to the vestiges of how they used to be, you know, 15 years ago. Axelrod, I think, has got his finger on the pulse. And here it's embodied in the following exchange. Let's watch. It's a legitimate question. Should a should essentially an agent of any foreign government, whether it's Israel or any other, be able to spend? or is it healthy for them to spend$30 million in a race like this to influence the outcome of that race? I think that's a legitimate issue. I don't think that they're an agent of foreign power.

32:05I think they're American Jews, as you said. Their mission is to support the policies of the Israeli government. Well, I think their issue is to protect Israel. Why is AIPAC so mad? This guy is saying that the United States government can't even sell defensive weapons to Israel, which would make Israel completely defenseless. Now, that would be a reason for a group of people who cares about Israelis to say this is not our guy. Get Vanny Yamaka. I feel like, yeah, that that issue is settled in their party. I'm not sure why they're still arguing over it, because if I were a Democrat who wanted to continue to win in any state, the first thing I'd say, if I were chief of all Democrats, the first thing I would tell them is you cannot take any APAC money.

32:48You should not talk about Israel on the campaign trail. if the question is put directly to you, you should say we've given them enough. They say themselves that they can stand on their own two feet and they should be allowed to. You will not get elected as a Democrat nine times out of 10 if you don't say those things in 2026 America. Am I wrong? You're not wrong in the current environment. And you saw that with Joe Biden, very pro-Israel Democrat for decades when he was running for president. He was doing everything he could to avoid supporting Netanyahu publicly. And when he felt compelled to and did after January, after October 7th, he was he got a huge blow by a huge blowback.

33:27That's after October 7th. So you're absolutely right. And I think, again, in this in this period from now to November, that will be finessed. The the the the anti-Israel position will be the dominant position. The primaries are almost over. But after that, in the presidential context, someone like Josh Shapiro, governor of Pennsylvania, some presidential candidate is going to draw a line in the sand on this. Not all the way back to where it used to be, probably not celebrating AIPAC, but still being a defender of Israel. And I think it's the J.D. Vance position. J.D. Vance, with his interview with Joe Rogan, said, I'm the moderate on this.

34:10I'm not reflexively pro-Israel. I'm not reflexively anti-Israel. I'm for what's in the interest of the United States, which is that position. Being allied with Israel when it's in the interest of the United States and supporting a longtime ally. I think some Democrat can move the party back there, but not all the way back. And I'll be curious. AIPAC has a big annual fundraiser. I'll be curious to see how many Democrats go to that thing when it comes up. Mm hmm. I don't I feel like J.D. Vance, he's he's basically going to say we like Israel, but we're keeping Israel at arm's length. Exactly. We don't do Israel's bidding, which is which is different than where Trump is.

34:49And even where the Republican Party used to be, there is we've mentioned this guy, Hassan Piker, a lot. I don't think a lot of our audience knows or consumes Hassan Piker content, but he is pretty radical in his leftism and really seems to me like straight out of the DSA playbook. But he's been a leader on a lot of these issues over on the in the Democrat Party. And he got out there last night and his live stream and went off on El Sayed's detractors. Take a listen to SOT5. Like everyone being like, Abdullah has a fuck ton of work to do, mending bridges. Here's the fucking take nuke for you, okay?

35:32You are all unbelievably Islamophobic pieces of shit, okay? You literally called the dude a fucking terrorist for months on end and like called him a sexist, misogynist, terrorist, bad candidate, doesn't fake doctor when he has like two fucking degrees. and now you're going to sit there and be like, well, you know, you really got to come to me now. Like, what are you talking about? Do you want to fucking win or not? Lock the fuck in. OK, lock the fuck in. That guy has a guy has a favorite word. Definitely has a favorite. Colorful commentary there, Mark. But does he have a point that like now going forward, El-Sayed doesn't have to reach out to the Haley Stevens voters that if they want to defeat Donald Trump, they really have no other option and they need to get in line, notwithstanding all the terrible things they said about this guy.

36:26Not if they want to win the general election. Having this guy, he hung out with him the day before the election on Monday. He had him at his victory party last night. This would be like Barack Obama having Reverend Wright do the benediction at his convention in 2008. This guy is bad news. And many of the people in the Democratic Party who have swallowed hard and endorsed Dr. Al-Sayed today are expecting him to distance himself from Piker going forward. It doesn't look to me like he will. And I have to say, you're right. A lot of people don't know who he is. I've only learned who he is in the last year or two.

36:58But I would say if he does not distance himself from this guy or at least cut off his physical presence, I really do think it will meaningfully impact his chances of winning against Mike Rogers. This guy is, it's not just a hot button. He's not just a symbol. He espouses things that are far more out of the mainstream than his friend, the doctor. He said America deserved 9-11. For instance, yeah. So I'll be curious to see, like literally, how many days are there to the election? There's like 88 or something. I want to know how many of those 88 days or whatever it is he spends, the two of them spend together.

37:32Because I have a funny feeling it's going to be more than the traffic will bear for a lot of Democrats and independents. Well, there is a response here on the question of unity by Dr. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. He just posted it. But Haley Stevens had posted, I love Michigan. I'm so proud to have put up my hand to serve. I spoke with Abdul a few moments ago to offer him my full support as we work to defeat Mike Rogers this November. Syed responded, putting your hand up to participate in democracy is no easy thing. Thanks for running, Congresswoman. Looking forward to uniting this ball to beat Mike Rogers, because what unites us is so much bigger than what divides us.

38:08So there it is, the olive branch to the Haley Stevens crew. Now, I want to get to what's happening on the Republican side, too, with this meeting with Tucker, Marjorie Taylor Greene. But let me just put that over to the side for one second, because while we're on the subject of what's going to happen in November with these, what may seem like pretty far out there candidates to us against what seem like, you know, winnable Republican races. Um, the Ken Paxton, James Tallarico race down in Texas, I would say is causing some concern within Republican circles right now, because not only is it tight, but the last, the latest three polls show Tallarico winning over Ken Paxton.

39:00Now this could be fool's gold, you know, just like Beto O 'Rourke thought he could beat Ted Cruz, but he never did. But Harry Enten, everyone's favorite data analyst over on CNN is pointing out that Ted Cruz was in a very different position than than than Ken Paxton is. He's actually a lot. He was better, better positioned. He was better liked. Harry Anton is pointing out Ted Cruz, who's like kind of infamous for not being that well liked. I like him, but very few others. And he was pulling much better on the favorability scale than Ken Paxton, who's had a lot of scandals down in Texas. And I have to ask you, Mark, what you think, because while the betting markets, Polly Market and Kalshi still have Paxton eking out a win in this race, the last three polls to come out down there show Tallarico ahead of the Republican Ken Paxton.

39:55Whoa. What do you make of it? I'm second to no political analyst for the last 20 years in laughing at Democrats wasting money trying to win races in Texas. I have been consistent in looking at the demographics and saying maybe someday, but not now. Because of the climate, because of how unpopular President Trump is, and because of Ken Paxton's unpopularity, if the election were held today, I believe Tallarico would win. But that's true of a lot of other races. It's true in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa. The Republican Party is going to have to turn this around. If they turn around Texas, which they can, Paxton will win.

40:35But they have to turn it around. And Paxton's having trouble raising money. Tallarico is not. And I'll say this. The biggest single variable that we don't know the answer to, which will determine whether Ken Paxton can come back and win, because it's not just public media polls, private Republican polls show him behind, is this. Republicans will have a greater money advantage in this election than any election in American history, midterm election in American history. I believe their advantage, not their total money, will be over a billion and a half dollars. And so they're - You're talking about beyond Texas here.

41:12You're talking about midterms in general. A billion and a half. Some of that will go to Texas. And Paxton will take the money and his supporters, and they'll spend it. And they'll say, do you want common sense or do you want a communist? Do you want common sense or do you want kooky and if they can do that and turn things around they'll win but they must execute in other words on the current trajectory as as as long as it's been since the democrat has won a statewide race in texas as much as tallarico has said many things that would in a normal cycle disqualify him for texas voters he will win unless the republicans can change the current trajectory of the race And that's true in a lot of other races.

41:52That's stunning. It is. And again, I'm not stunning. You can go check my record. I have there's not been a single cycle presidential or or midterm where I have given Democrats a chance to win a statewide race in Texas. Not a chance. wasn't even open to it. But it's happening now unless the Republicans fix it. So Enten gets into, I have two soundbites from him that I want to play both. Here he is first of all on why Ted Cruz was polling better versus Ken Paxton now. This is thought 20. So 26 different than 2018. Ted Cruz, again, who won, but it was very, very close. Less than three points. How is Ted Cruz different than Paxton?

42:34How is Ted Cruz different than Kemp Axton? Simply put, Ted Cruz is popular. Kemp Axton is not popular at all. That is, I think, one of the biggest differences in this race. Take a look here. The GOP nominee's net favorability. In July of 2018, Ted Cruz was eight points above water. His favorable was eight points above his unfavorable rating. Look at this side of the screen. Very different indeed. Kemp Axton, six points underwater with, get this, among independents, 47 points underwater. No wonder. No wonder that you're seeing major issues for Ken Paxton in this race so far. It's the independents.

43:09So the Republicans pushed Paxton through. They were over John Cornyn for a bunch of reasons. They thought he was kind of a rhino, you know, type. And John Thune and others of the establishment said, don't do this. You're going to cost us so much money down in Texas if you get rid of Cornyn. But they did it. And I understand why they did it. But the independents are the ones who John Thune was thinking about. Here's just a little bit more from Harry Anton on them. Sat 19. The polling is different. The polling is different. This is the best looking polling for Democrats in the Senate race since really the 20th century.

43:48You're going to have to go back probably the late 80s, the last time they won a Senate race out there when it was Lloyd Benson winning in 1988. in 88 because just take a look here this polling looks so much different than it did eight years ago you take a look here james tallarico the latest poll against ken paxton he's actually up by three points look at where the race was between beto o 'rourke and ted cruz at this point in the 2018 cycle ted cruz was a hit by six this is very different the democrat here is doing nine points better and what is supercharging that look at this independence move from tie to plus 39 points for James Tallarico, independence, the name of the game, shifting significantly to the left camp and supercharging James Tallarico.

44:28It could be real. Every single time I look at the poll, this can't be right. This could be very, very real. Democrats have a real shot in Texas. OK, so you agree with that. I do. But can you explain how? Because I know Ken Paxton has scandals, but James Tallarico thinks God is non-binary. He's a vegan, even though he claims He's not a vegan, but he clearly was a vegan up until very recently. He's said some bizarre things about trans kids and so on. Like, how would Texas vote that guy into the U.S. Senate? It's a great question. It is another another thing I want to do as a focus group in Texas amongst regular independent independents who regularly vote Republican and why they're voting for Tallarica are open to them, because I don't really understand how they're setting aside.

45:19all those things because they know about all those things because there's already been money spent on television to tell them those things. I can't really answer the question for you how they're setting them aside except by saying this. The very reason, as you laid out, that the Paxon, the Cornyn folks said, don't nominate this guy, are all true. He has won statewide races, but since he's won statewide races, he's done a lot of things that are morally challenged, ethically questionable. And he's not handling that well. His dealings with the press have been awkward. He's clearly uncomfortable. He's also continues apparently to do things in his personal life that he allows TMZ to take pictures of that are just part of why he's got trouble.

46:03And I will say, Democrats, even in Texas, Democrats normally do better with women than Republicans do with female voters. I think the gender gap in this race will be massive because a lot of the things people don't like about Ken Paxton, a lot of women in moderate independence, moderate Republican women do not like about the guy. I know that from lots of friends in Texas. So Ken Paxton needs a comeback. This is not a case of coasting. This is not a case of, well, the Republican always wins in the end. If they're going to hold that seat, they need a comeback and he's going to have to raise more money and he's going to have to figure out a way to make the race more about talarico than it is about him oh my lord i mean that is just that is that is some bad ass news but it's only august what fourth fifth today uh so there is some time i do want to point out that cory bush was defeated so that's some good news that came out last night she tried to make a comeback uh for her state her her seat in St.

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50:46I do want to ask you about what's happening on Team Red, because it was one of those things everybody was like, what's that? On the internet, MTG put out a picture of Marjorie Taylor Greene, Joe Kent, Tucker, and who's the other one? Oh, Thomas Massey meeting at Tucker's home. and clearly they were discussing what to do about Republican politics and whether there should be a new party. And we know that now because Joe Kent went on Piers Morgan, among other places like the Young Turks, and said the following, Sot 21. You know, things are in the initial phases right now, but there is a growing consensus on, I think, both the right and the left of people who are sick and tired of the Republican Party.

51:31They're sick and tired of the Democrat Party. They want us out of these foolish wars that we're just sitting here talking about right now. Most Americans have no idea what we're talking about. They don't know about Gaza. They don't know about the Straits of Kermit. They just know that billions of their taxpayer dollars, their blood, their treasures, their sons and their daughters continue to get sent overseas. Our best and brightest get killed. Our taxpayer dollars get spent over there while things continue to decay here in America. And so what we're trying to do is just build a coalition of people who say we're finally going to put America first.

52:02We're not going to focus on the next foreign war. We're not going to listen to foreign lobbies like the Israelis. We're going to focus on the issues that matter here to the American people. Just to be clear, though, before we close things, could this involve establishing a new party? Look, it certainly could. I mean, if you talk to most Americans out there and they're sick of the Republican Party, they're sick of the Democrat Party. They do want something that actually represents their interests. it absolutely could involve a new party. A party called America First is reportedly the consideration.

52:36And he also said that they all urged Tucker to run as the candidate. And on top of that, when asked by Cenk Uyghur of the Young Turks, what would this mean for J.D. Vance? He basically said, we like him, but he's too tainted. He supported the Iran war. And no. So I'm very interested in what you think this would mean. Like, what would it mean for the Republican Party?

53:03Well, Tucker's as likely to run for president as I am to move to India and start my cricket career. I just don't think it's going to happen. Disagree. I just don't think he—well, he might do it as a lark, but as a credible campaign. I don't believe it. I don't believe the support's there for it. I gotta tell you, I disagree. I haven't talked to him directly about it, but I believe Tucker's so disgusted. and the neocons and what's happened within the Republican Party that for the first time he actually would consider it. I just don't see a practical base of support. There's tens of millions of people who like that point of view of that group, but it's not enough to overcome the obstacles to a path to a presidency, either within the Republican Party or starting a third party.

53:48I've spent a lot of time on this, and starting a third party is nearly impossible. in our system. It takes a lot of a lot of stuff that that group doesn't have sitting around Tucker's house chatting in flannel. What should point out that there he's making an announcement about it live on his YouTube feed tonight at 6 p.m. So we'll learn more. But what what would it do, Mark? Because let's say that is 10 to 20 million votes that, you know, people who are very anti the Iran war and just the neocon hawkish nature of the Republican Party, even after 20 years of war. I mean, that that actually could be a problem.

54:30The Republican Party, no party can afford to lose that many voters in a general election. Yeah. Getting ballot access is really difficult. Determining a process by which you select your nominee is really difficult. So if if magically they could be on the general election ballot and in the debates, yeah, that'd be doomed for the Republican Party. Doom. I mean, unequivocal. Well, they can get in the debates. No. They can get in the debate. I mean, why not? The commission of presidential debates no longer runs the thing. Right. Trump put an end to that. Right. And the Republican nominee would no sooner step on the debate stage than they would eat a bag of tax.

55:08They're just not going to let them in the debates. If the commission wouldn't let him in the debates unless they met some threshold. And if the commission's not doing it, and we don't really know if the commission's doing it or not. They've had some bad cycles here, but they may come back. But if they don't, no Republican presidential nominee is going to agree to debate Tucker. There's just not. In addition, I'll just say regarding Tucker, whatever other variables there are, if J.D. Vance is a Republican nominee, Tucker's not going to stop him. So I just don't see it. In terms of what that group represents, they have a lot of grievance.

55:44I know they're against a lot of stuff, but I don't really know what they're for. And again, you don't start a political party without standing for something. So mark me down. You might hear more tonight at six. Mark me down as skeptical that Tucker wants to give up the great life he has now for a fool's errand. Okay. Skeptical. Well, we'll know soon enough. Looking forward to it. If you're right, we'll rerun the clip. Well, he might say he's doing something, but I don't think he'll follow through. I just I mean, I think you're underestimating the extent of his disgust in what's happened within the Republican Party.

56:17I don't like I don't like the new season. It would be altruistic. I don't like the new season of Ted Lasso, but I'm not doing anything about it. You don't have true disgust. I mean, talk to the people about the last episode and season of Game of Thrones. It's that level of disgust, Mark Halperin. All right. I want to tell the audience we are coming back with Mark, but only for our SiriusXM listeners. And we're taking your calls. It's our Get Closer August series. Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show. No BS, no agenda, and no fear.

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