Democrat Hallie Schoffner Leads in Arkansas Senate Race

26 Aug 2026 · 16 min · 5 chapters

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In short

The episode argues that Arkansas is shifting politically and that Democratic Senate nominee Hallie Schaffner is gaining momentum against incumbent Tom Cotton, framed as a backlash to Donald Trump and “MAGA” Republicans. It cites polling (Hendrix College) showing Schaffner leading 47%–44%, with independents at 59%–29%, and mentions low national “strong approval” for Trump (13% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll).

Key claims

Cotton is “aloof,” rarely in-state, lacks constituent services, and voted against farm interests (including voting against the farm bill twice). Schaffner links Arkansas farm distress to trade wars (China), Iran-related impacts, and diesel costs, claiming Arkansas leads in farm bankruptcies and farmer suicides and has lost 25% of family farms in 18 months.

Notable examples

soybean bins with unsold product; a farm closure she says happened to her family; “foreign frozen meat” policy under Trump.

Guests

Hallie Schaffner, a sixth-generation Arkansas farmer, wife, mother of a seven-year-old, caregiver for a parent with dementia; she discusses her campaign and background.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Trump's Struggles in Arkansas

0:30 to 2:25

Analysis of Donald Trump's declining approval ratings in Arkansas ahead of the midterms.

“Donald Trump getting a rude awakening in ruby red Arkansas before the midterms where he is in full collapse mode.”

Democratic Momentum with Hallie Schaffner

2:25 to 3:42

Discussion on Hallie Schaffner's surprising lead in the Senate race polls.

“I mean, the poll really just confirms what we already knew.”

Agriculture and Economic Struggles

3:42 to 8:07

Schaffner discusses the agricultural crisis in Arkansas and its political implications.

“The new policy is central planning communism.”

Political Disillusionment in Arkansas

8:07 to 10:55

Schaffner highlights the disillusionment of voters feeling betrayed by Trump and Cotton.

“And it doesn't matter whether you're a Democrat or Republican, if you're suffering.”

Path to Change: Hallie Schaffner's Vision

10:55 to 12:15

Schaffner shares her vision for change and how people can get involved in her campaign.

“I mean, my God, we are sick and tired of being sick and tired and we are exhausted.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Ben Meiselas:The right window treatments change everything. Your sleep, your privacy, the way every room looks and feels. At Blinds.com, we've spent 30 years making it surprisingly simple to get exactly what your home needs. We've covered over 25 million windows and have 50 ,000 five-star reviews to prove we deliver. Whether you're DIY it or want a pro to handle everything from measure to install, we have you covered. Real design professionals, free samples, zero pressure. Save up to 40 % when you buy two or more. Rules and restrictions apply. Donald Trump getting a rude awakening in ruby red Arkansas before the midterms where he is in full collapse mode.

0:38Ben Meiselas:Folks, his approval right now, net negative 14 in Arkansas heading into the midterms and Donald Trump's MAGA stooges not faring much better in the latest Hendricks College poll for Arkansas. The Democratic candidate, Hallie Schaffner, leads 47 % to 44%, a three-point lead for a Democratic Senate candidate in what was once believed to be ruby red Arkansas. And when you look at the cross tabs here, they tell quite the story. Amongst independents, Hallie Schaffner leads 59 % to 29%. When you look at Trump's overall approval, dismal. Trump's approval on the economy, dismal. Trump's approval on the Iran war, dismal.

1:26Ben Meiselas:This also comes at the same time, there was a Reuters Ipsos poll showing just 13 % of Americans strongly approve of Trump. That's it, just 13 % nationwide. So for all those people saying, you know, what's going on America, Only 13 percent of all people in the United States strongly approve. I still don't know who those 13.5 percent are. The Arkansas Times reports Schaffner takes Lee against Cotton. Yes, you read that right. And then when you get into some of the analysis that's being done here in this latest Hendricks poll, here's how people describe Tom Cotton, the MAGA Republican Senate stooge, aloof, out of touch, rarely spends time in the state.

2:13Ben Meiselas:And as this Arkansas Times article says, it's starting to add up for this MAGA Republican stooge two term Senator Cotton. uh cotton i want to bring in haley shofter right now the democratic candidate for that united states senate seat sixth generation farmer you know the state your family's grown up in the state you're with the people of the state you know oftentimes i do these reports and people say ben you know don't give us this hopium arkansas's ruby red don't do the trump's collapsing in arkansas story and get our hopes up but haley there's a lot of momentum that people really need to be paying attention to around your campaign.

2:51Ben Meiselas:Can you talk about it? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the poll really just confirms what we already knew. It actually mirrored an independent poll, not an independent poll, it mirrored a poll that we did internally two weeks ago. And it also mirrors what we're seeing on the ground, which is Arkansans are very independent minded. In fact, most of our voters aren't even registered with the party. And 15 years ago, We elected a Democrat as governor and he won all 75 counties. When I'm traveling around the state and I'm talking to folks who are either Republican or Democrat, in fact, a lot of them say, you know what, you cut me open and I'm purple.

3:29You don't have to change your party to want to change your senator. We're all looking at the past 12 years of Tom Cotton and realizing that Washington is absolutely not working for us.

3:41Ben Meiselas:Sixth generation farmer seems that every day the Trump regime does something new to attack farmers announces this week. The new policy is central planning communism. But for the benefit of mystery foreign countries, we're going to be bringing in mystery foreign frozen meat and beef in here. We're not going to tell you really where it's from, whether it'll have the health checks or go through the processes here that our ranchers go through. But what Trump does want our ranchers to know here as well is that they'll be undercut by 25 percent by the foreign beef. And then you go across the board. I mean, I know, you know, your family and your background, soybean farmers.

4:26Ben Meiselas:I mean, Donald Trump blew up that market, then wanted a participation trophy that China buys half the soybeans it did previously. Talk to us about what you're seeing on the ground there. I mean, right now, Arkansas, we lead the nation in farm bankruptcies and farmer suicides. And we've lost 25 percent of the family farms in Arkansas in the last 18 months. I closed my operation last year. I mean, I really wouldn't be here today if Tom Cotton hadn't taken my job by voting against the farm bill twice. We have been kicking the can down the road on a farm bill that has contributed to the farm crisis.

5:00Of course, the trade war with China. And I will actually say the trade war with China in 2018 really initiated this downhill slide that farmers have been on. And it really just ramped up last year with the second trade war. Because you're right. Our product, which is soybeans, that's that's the main product in Arkansas. We're just sitting in bins across the state. Unsold. Farmers aren't making any money. They can't pay off their operating loans. The war in Iran has jacked up diesel prices for them. And it's not just farmers. I mean, let's be clear. Arkansas, we're the hungriest state in the country.

5:34We're the second sickest and the fourth poorest. I mean, I'm not just a farmer and a small business owner. I'm also a wife. I'm the mom of a seven-year-old boy. I care give for a parent who has dementia. These are all factors that folks in Arkansas are really identifying with because we're struggling in pretty much every aspect of our lives.

5:53Ben Meiselas:You know, but when you see Trump and Cotton, what they just repeat is, you love us, don't you? We love you. And no one's done more ever in the history. We love you. We love you. We love you. And they're relying on that. You love us, don't you? You know, and, you know, it does seem like with every Ponzi scheme at some point when you promise everything and you lie about it and they've I mean, you can see and I think the farmers in Arkansas, people in Arkansas, you can see how this fire hose of lies works from the Trump regime. There's no shame. If you or I or most people in Arkansas tell a lie, even a small lie, you feel a sense of guilt.

6:39Ben Meiselas:Even if it's a little tiny fib, he lies every word, utter and sound syllabus. So it's easy for him to say, I'm going to promise you this. You're going to get so rich. It's right around the corner. I promise you. I promise you. But here we are. And it didn't happen. And the people not only did it not happen, but he's destroyed the people's lives. And so it feels like with every Ponzi scheme, eventually someone says, all right, you've said all that. You've told me we were going to be rich. Now pay up. What am I going to get? And we seem to be at that moment where people are like, OK, well, now we're here and now my family's lives.

7:11Ben Meiselas:But what are you going to do? I mean, eventually the House of Cards collapses. Right. And folks in Arkansas, I mean, we're pulling out our pockets and there's nothing in them. And we all know the grocery store doesn't have a Democrat price and a Republican price. When you're all struggling, you're all struggling. And I know a lot of folks across Arkansas who have voted Republican in the last three elections, who did vote for the president in the last three elections, and they're really feeling betrayed. They feel like they were sold a bill of goods that then was not delivered on, especially farmers.

7:41I mean, I've been to farms all over the state and they really feel like they've been used as the tip of the spear in the war in Iran and in this trade war with China and with the rest of the world, because we do sell a lot of agricultural products to Canada and Mexico and Europe. And it seems like everybody's just mad at us. And so they're buying their agricultural products somewhere else. Arkansas is ready for a change. And it doesn't matter whether you're a Democrat or Republican, if you're suffering. And I argue, I'm not asking anybody to become a Democrat. I'm just asking, can't we do a heck of a lot better than Tom Cotton?

8:18Ben Meiselas:You know, I think one of the most defensive aspects in this catastrophic war, when Donald Trump said Iran's going to be the one doing the bailout. Do you remember when he said that? He is going to be purchasing all of your soybeans. And so we've got, we've got it saved. It's coming from Iran right now. And people are like, huh, what, what are you saying right now? Um, so you've got that. Tell us about your background though. So people know who you are. Um, I think people would love to hear from you. I mean, uh, I'm a sixth generation farmer. Most people know that about me. Um, I am a wife. I'm the mother of a little seven-year-old boy who's about to be eight.

8:55Um, my parents are both seniors. They're getting older. My dad has dementia. One of the things I talk about a lot is that this story of the farm closing last year, which was a really difficult thing for my family to go through, that's the story of Arkansas right now. I mean, we are doing everything right. We're working harder than ever, and we're still not making it. And it's not because we have failed. It's because we live in a system rigged against us. And it's rigged by and for politicians like Tom Cotton to further their own national political ambitions, the interests of their biggest donors, and Washington insiders.

9:34Today, I went on a conservative talk radio show, and I argued that the issue we have today is that our politicians have gone to Washington, they have stayed too long, and they've pulled the ladder up behind them, and they don't come home. Tom Cotton is probably the worst about this. He does not live in Arkansas. He lives in Virginia. He does not come home. He has no constituent services program to speak of, and he has voted against our interests every chance he got. including voting against the farm bill twice.

10:01Ben Meiselas:You know, and then you see him wrapping his arm around Donald Trump over golden ballrooms and gilded bronze statues and supporting Donald Trump. 21 ,000 stock trades in 2025, 1 ,000 stock trades in June alone. Donald Trump running around with Natalie, hiding in catering containers, you know, in the NATO summit. bragging about how rich he is. I think there's also the contrast of here's how people in Arkansas are doing and here's what they're doing and they're just flaunting it, right? Like the cottons and the trumps, they're like letting the people of Arkansas know, oh, you're struggling? We're going to just do gold everywhere with your taxpayer money.

10:49Ben Meiselas:Also, while we cover up the Epstein files, you know, while we're at it, which we promised we were going to release. So they're just doing it. And people are tired. I mean, my God, we are sick and tired of being sick and tired and we are exhausted. Let me tell you, whether I'm in a farm shop, a diner or a Democratic County Party meeting, people are tired of the rhetoric and the political theater. They're tired of the left and right and the liberal and conservative. We're real people. We have real problems. And we're crying out for someone who believes that the purpose of government is to solve problems, create progress and not just posture around for the next election.

11:23Ben Meiselas:So we have about 7 million subscribers here on the Midas Touch YouTube channel. Where can people learn more about your campaign and what's your message to everybody watching this? What do you want them to take away? My website is Hallie Schaffner.com. You can read all about the campaign and how to donate, how to get involved. I think the message is that Arkansas is ready for change. We are a unique state. We are uniquely positioned in the South with a candidate like me who understands what life is like to take back a Senate seat. And I know we say Ruby Red, Arkansas, but really things are changing.

11:59And it's like I say all the time, and it's like the feedback I'm getting, bank, you do not have to change your party to want a better senator for Arkansas.

12:08Ben Meiselas:Healy Schaffner, thanks for joining us. We're going to keep on following the campaign. Thanks for all you do. Thanks. Everybody hit subscribe. Let's get to 7 million subscribers. Before you go, our book WTF America is available for pre-order now. It's the story of how we got here and how we fight our way back. To pre-order, scan the QR code or click the link in the description. Let's do this.

From the publisher

MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Donald Trump’s approval tanking in Arkansas and Meiselas interviews Democratic Senate candidate Hallie Schoffner who is now leading MAGA GOP Senator Tom Cotton in the Arkansas senate race.

Pre-order the new book from MeidasTouch, WTF America?!: The Way Out of This Hell and Back to Democracy, today: https://bit.ly/wtfamericayoutube

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