Trump Changes Course After Xi Jinping's Warning

27 Jul 2026 · 28 min · 12 chapters

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In short

The episode argues that Donald Trump backed off threats to escalate a “catastrophic and unlawful” war against Iran after Xi Jinping’s camp warned the U.S. that China would directly enter if the U.S. crossed red lines, risking World War III.

Key claims

the U.S. is “out of” precision munitions (Patriot/THAAD interceptors), Iran struck U.S. bases with impunity, and China (via Wang Yi) plus Russia (via Lavrov) delivered the same deterrent message to Trump allies Marco Rubio and others. Notable examples cited include Iran-China foreign minister meetings at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China-Pakistan diplomatic contacts to reduce U.S.-Iran tensions, and Iran-Russia drone/logistics links (Shahid drones).

Guests

Victor Gao, described as a China policy expert and Beijing lawyer, advising GCC countries to choose Chinese mediation for peace.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Trump's Fear of Escalation

0:01 to 0:26

Discussing Trump's retreat from escalating tensions with Iran due to China's warnings.

“And there's never been a better time to sign up than right now.”

Trump's Fear of Escalation

0:28 to 1:30

Discussing Trump's retreat from escalating tensions with Iran due to China's warnings.

“Donald Trump is terrified of Xi Jinping, the leader of China.”

China's Strategic Influence

1:30 to 3:30

Exploring China's support for Iran and its implications for U.S. military actions.

“China had previously stated that it is a strategic ally with Iran.”

Geopolitical Shifts in the Middle East

3:30 to 6:10

Analyzing the shift from a U.S.-centric to a China-centric security framework in the Middle East.

“into one massive world war is what Iran was threatening, China was threatening, Russia was threatening, and that was one of the main reasons that Donald Trump backed down.”

The Role of Pakistan in Diplomacy

6:10 to 8:10

Discussing Pakistan's role as a mediator in the changing dynamics of U.S.-Iran relations.

“we now are the security umbrella in the Middle East, not the United States.”

Military Assessment and Regional Stability

8:10 to 10:50

Examining military assessments and their impact on U.S. operations in the region.

“Now, Barack Ravid, Trump's personal stenographer over at Axios, posted, The top U.S.”

China's Growing Influence and BRICS

10:50 to 13:20

Understanding how China's growing influence and the BRICS alliance challenge U.S. dominance.

“Trump, this is what Flynn's saying to Trump.”

China's Growing Influence and BRICS

13:35 to 14:48

Understanding how China's growing influence and the BRICS alliance challenge U.S. dominance.

“As you know, I've been using Hexclad for a while now, and I've been obsessed with it.”

Victor Gao on Middle East Peace

15:11 to 19:16

Victor Gao discusses China's role in peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

“How would you advise GCC countries to navigate the current conflict as it presages a new geopolitical framework, as you've outlined?”

Trump's Changing Stance on China

19:17 to 20:39

Analysis of Trump's inconsistent statements regarding China's involvement with Iran.

“And you said today that Russia and China are not helping.”
Show all 12 chapters

Trump's Pathetic International Relations

20:40 to 22:58

A critique of Trump's interactions with Xi Jinping and their implications for U.S.-China relations.

“And he does this like weird fake image of AI planes attacking Karg Island or Trump being a pirate saying, it's our oil tanker now, our give the enemy nightmares or guardians of the world.”

Boeing Deal Turbulence

22:59 to 24:05

Discussion on the challenges facing Trump's Boeing deal with China.

“trip with Xi Jinping talking about Thucydides' trap and Trump's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

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0:30Ben Meiselas:Donald Trump is terrified of Xi Jinping, the leader of China. That's the real reason why Donald Trump backed off of his threats that he would do a massive escalation in the catastrophic and unlawful war against Iran. The public reasoning why Donald Trump did not escalate is perhaps equally humiliating and true that the United States ran out of precision munitions such as the Patriot interceptors and THAAD interceptors, and Iran was able to successfully strike U.S. air bases with impunity in the nearby Arab nations after the United States escalated in the past few weeks. But that's only part of the story.

1:12Ben Meiselas:The bigger part of the story is that China made it very clear through Wang Yi, the foreign minister, on behalf of Xi Jinping, that a massive escalation by the United States, as threatened by Donald Trump when he said he would open up the gates of hell would bring China directly into the war. China had previously stated that it is a strategic ally with Iran. China previously called Iran its, quote, strategic partner militarily, economically, and politically that was never being hidden. And we knew that China was supplying logistical support and weapons to Iran. And Iran was providing weapons to China, training to China on drone warfare.

1:58Ben Meiselas:And Iran was, of course, providing its Shahid drones to Russia as well. And China's been working closely with Russia to develop China's military capabilities, given Russia's active war against the Ukraine and the lessons that are being learned in how modern warfare is fought. But China made it very clear to Donald Trump, to Marco Rubio, and to others in the despicable Trump regime that if Donald Trump opened up the gates of hell and started to strike bridges and power plants as Trump threatened, China would immediately get involved and it would trigger World War III. I talked about this weekend how Donald Trump is terrified of starting World War III, and especially given the fact that the United States has run out of its munitions, specifically its precision munitions like the Patriots and the FADs.

2:55Ben Meiselas:if China were to get involved and the United States has depleted like 80 % of some of its interceptors, the United States would very quickly find itself defeated in a massive world war. You add to the fact, and you can see what's going on in the background, that after in Ukraine, Zelensky struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea, Iran made it clear that it would go and strike Ukraine potentially and more publicly. And we know that Iran is providing the Shahid drones to Russia that's being used against Ukraine, but to formally now link the two wars into one massive world war is what Iran was threatening, China was threatening, Russia was threatening, and that was one of the main reasons that Donald Trump backed down.

3:45Ben Meiselas:You got to pay attention, and this is why we cover this meticulously here, about what's been taking place in the past 48 hours. Of course, Iran's foreign minister, Aragji, had a meeting with the foreign minister of China, Wang Yi, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. This is where lots of the BRICS bloc nations send their foreign ministers. And on the sidelines, you saw right here, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Aragji. Now, over the past 24 to 48 hours, what else has been posted publicly? Well, a senior source told Al Arabiya that China, in coordination with Pakistan, is conducting, quote, diplomatic contacts aimed at reducing tensions between the United States and Iran.

4:42Ben Meiselas:According to the source, Beijing is exploring reciprocal confidence-building measures and seeking to prepare the ground for U.S.-Iran talks on regional security. China also wants Gulf states and other regional powers involved in supporting a framework for long-term stability. If confirmed, this suggests an increasingly coordinated China-Pakistan diplomatic track, with Islamabad acting as a regional facilitator and Beijing providing the broader political umbrella. That's diplomatic lingo, broader political umbrella. Umbrella. What does the word umbrella mean here? Security umbrella. Where the umbrella used to be centered, United States, The Mideast had a U.S.-centric security umbrella.

5:37Ben Meiselas:Now, what is changing is that it is a China-centric security umbrella. So, Pakistan is there as a mediator representing regional powers. Pakistan has a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. There's also one now moving closer with Kuwait. You have the Gulf cooperation countries that are all there. And so you have Pakistan serving as basically the good cop, if you will, good cop, bad cop, and China coming in and basically saying, we now are the security umbrella in the Middle East, not the United States. And there's a new regional framework that's going to be taking place as Donald Trump showed how weak and pathetic he is and how he's destroyed the U.S.

6:39Ben Meiselas:security umbrella in the region. So that's what was going on. Now, China made it clear to Trump. Also, Russia did as well through Lavrov. And remember also what was happening over the past few days. So this is all coordinated together. Shanghai Cooperation Organization meets. Who else meets? Rubio then has a meeting with Wang Yi and Rubio has a meeting with Lavrov, Wang Yi of China, Lavrov of Russia. They both delivered that message to Rubio as well. That's why when Rubio left the meeting, he was a deer in headlights, right? It looked like he was going to cry because he was told, world war is going to start, bud, and you're out of munitions.

7:25Ben Meiselas:We see through the satellite images how bad your bases have been destroyed. There's a reason that you have all ordered in the United States, US companies to not produce or provide satellite footage. And you've ordered the European Union not to provide satellite footage. China is now going to be running the show in the Middle East. That's what was conveyed. That's why you had this blabbering, slobbering, pathetic looking. He always looks pathetic. Ruby, oh, don't do the Lego videos. The Lego videos of me are so mean. The Lego videos are mean. Okay, so that's what was going on. Look, Iran and China taking photos together.

8:09Ben Meiselas:Rather, the Iran and China embassy account posting about the meeting between Foreign Minister Aragji and Wang Yi, the foreign minister of China right there. Now, Barack Ravid, Trump's personal stenographer over at Axios, posted, The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it reached the limit of its effectiveness. We have doubts that resuming large-scale military operations will push Iran back to the negotiating table and depleting our stock of interceptor missiles is one of the factors that makes returning to large-scale military operations a risky option.

8:56Ben Meiselas:What do you think that Wang Yi from China was conveying? What do you think that conversation was like? We know you're out of munitions. You hit a power plant there. What are you going to hit? The Bushir power plant, which Russia built by the Strait of Hormuz? Do it. We dare you to do it. We will go in China and Russia on the side of Iran. Good luck. You don't have weapons. You do not want the smoke right now. and Donald Trump back down. Donald Trump rejected the support. I reject the reports that we're running low on munitions. We have far more munitions than anyone in the world, Donald Trump says.

9:38Ben Meiselas:That's the biggest tell that he's lying because he's opening up his mouth. That's what he told the Wall Street Journal. We have far more munitions than anyone in the world and far more than we need. What does that mean you have far more than we need? No, you don't. You are the most pathetic liar that there is. IRGC's General Ramazan Sharif said, we defeated the U.S. We defeated them militarily, politically, economically, and in the cultural fields. The U.S. failed to achieve any of its sinister goals. Also, in the past 24 hours, Iran's Foreign Minister Aragji spoke with Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov.

10:20Ben Meiselas:All of this is being delicately coordinated. And look, even General Mike Flynn, you don't get much more MAGA than General Mike Flynn. I can't believe that I'm going to utter these words right now. I agree with him on this point. I'm saying, listen to what he says right here. He's referring to these warmongers on state regime media Fox saying, Donald, you got to invade right now. You got to annihilate Iran, invade Kesham Island. Here's what Flynn says. This gentleman referring to one of the warmongers on Fox has no idea what he's talking about, nor how monumentally challenging an all-out war against an alliance of Iran, China, Russia, Pakistan, North Korea, all nuclear-armed nations, and other loosely aligned nations and ideologies would be.

11:17Ben Meiselas:Trump, this is what Flynn's saying to Trump. I know you are influenced by what you see on Fox News. Please tread carefully with statements that this man, who seems to be a friend of yours, referring to the Fox host, was what he's making. He is asking the nation to go to war against Iran when the majority of people in your base and the country want nothing to do with this. Take a look at this assessment right here by one analyst in the region. He says, America's failure to reduce Iran to a vassal, as it said it would, accelerates the BRICS. That's the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.

11:59Ben Meiselas:That's the BRICS block, which is the challenge to NATO. it accelerates the BRICS realignment and seals China's role as the principal development partner across Southwest Asia. The Gulf states, the Arab nations, are already pivoting toward infrastructure and production-based cooperation with Beijing and Moscow. The Middle East is being absorbed into greater Asia, while the transatlantic system is left isolated. This is the Eurasian development order asserting itself against the collapsing imperial order. First of all, it's strengthening BRICS because they see a weakening America. If America has failed to subordinate Iran and reduce it to a vassal, then it will not succeed with either Russia or China.

12:50Ben Meiselas:Those states will take strong encouragement from Iran winning the war, and it will increase China's insistence on a close relationship with Iran to secure its oil supply. China is moving fast. It sees a great threat from America, not the same threat that Iran is under, but a threat to undermine its economic growth and its economy in the interest of stimulating the American economy. But it is not going to capitulate either. It is not much of a competition in the Middle East. everyone welcomes China to the Middle East. Do not be under any illusions. Even the Gulf states will all be seeking a bigger, bolder relationship now with China and Russia.

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15:10Ben Meiselas:China policy expert and Beijing lawyer Victor Gao said the following on the war. Here play this clip. How would you advise GCC countries to navigate the current conflict as it presages a new geopolitical framework, as you've outlined? Well, I pride my relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as well as with many other Middle Eastern countries. I have several points to offer as advice. First of all, when China was involved with Iran and Saudi Arabia, they shook hands. They ended their decades, if not hundreds of years of hostility against each other. When the United States and Israel get involved between Iran and Saudi Arabia, they fire shot at each other.

15:58They became hostile again. So I hope Iran, on the one hand, Saudi Arabia and all the other Middle Eastern Arab countries, on the other hand, will know that when China is involved, you get peace. When the United States, Israel get involved, you will get hostility, war, confrontation, destruction. So the choice is very obvious. I hope all my friends, highly regarded by me in Saudi Arabia, will listen to me, treat China as a major source of defending free trade. And I hope when the dust ends for this war of aggression against Iran, the Iranians and the Arabs will shake hands again, preferably with Chinese intervention and mediation, and they may cement their friendship and cooperation for decades and centuries to come, because it will be suicidal for the Arabs who believe in Muslim, although they believe in many of them believe in Sunni Muslim, and the Iranians who are Muslims, even though they believe in Shia version of Muslim, get at each other's juggled.

17:10It will be much better if they can recognize each other, respect each other, shake each other's hand, and engage in cooperation with each other, Rather than, as some other countries are leading them in the wrong direction, being hostile with each other, trying to destroy each other, get to each other's jugular. That will not be a better Muslim world at large.

17:32Ben Meiselas:And then you had Lavrov issue the following statement recently. If Washington, they say Russia and China supply weapons to Iran, the ones that are used to attack American facilities. This fiction is embarrassing. U.S. supplies weapons to Ukraine. So they are a direct participant in Ukraine attacks against facilities and sites in Russia. Now, back on April 23rd, 2026, Trump was asked, are you angry at China for them sending stuff to Iran? Because it was always known that China's sending weapons and logistics to Iran. And back then, Trump was like, no, we do the same thing. We do the same thing.

18:16Ben Meiselas:Here, play this clip. Are you angry at China for what they sent Iran? No, no. So there's some proportion to it. No, I guess we do the same thing, don't we? With other countries. You know, it's like one of those things, but nothing that it wasn't earth shaken. Yeah. So then the big tell was on Friday, Trump was asked, wait, you said Russia and China aren't helping Iran, but Hegsitt says they're enabling. What's the difference? And Trump says, I don't know that they're enabling. Well, Trump in April 23rd, 2026 said they were enabling, which lets you know that at that press conference, Trump was told and he knew that not only is China enabling, but China made it very clear.

19:05Ben Meiselas:Here's the red line, Donald. You further escalate beyond these attacks that you're doing on Bonderabass and the coastline. You do any type of invasion. We get involved. Here's what Trump said then. Play this clip. And you said today that Russia and China are not helping. Earlier this week, the War Secretary, Hegstad, said that they are enabling. So what is the difference? Well, I don't know that they're enabling. I mean, I will tell you that President Xi said he will not partake. And President Putin said the same thing. I think, you know, I trust them. Do they? They've a long-term relationship there could be some things to do but uh thus far at least it has not been major i don't think they'd want to have me disappointed and notably netanyahu terrified of china in a recent interview netanyahu was saying china gave iran missiles for manufacturing components to which a reporter said does that disturb you netanyahu said i don't like it The reporter said, so should China reconsider?

20:13Ben Meiselas:To which Netanyahu said, China should think about, could be, I don't want to speak for China. Notice how Netanyahu said, I don't want to smoke with China either right now, which is notable. So what's Donald Trump doing right now where he knows that he's been checkmated by Xi Jinping? Well, that's why over the weekend you saw when he did those hundred AI posts of like weird AI images like strike on Karg. And he does this like weird fake image of AI planes attacking Karg Island or Trump being a pirate saying, it's our oil tanker now, our give the enemy nightmares or guardians of the world. Trump did this weird AI image of himself over U.S.

21:04Ben Meiselas:fighter jets blowing up Iran. And Trump says, guardians of the world, because he knows he destroyed the U.S. security umbrella. That's the reality of what's going on there. Iran's parliament leader, M.B. Galabaf, said the following,

21:37Ben Meiselas:Or this, Iran will offer China favorable rates for Hamus. Tehran plans to grant China preferential treatment and preferential rates right there. how about the fact that China's the vice chairman of the National People's Congress of China was at Komen A's funeral how about this China directly rejected Donald Trump's latest claim on truth social that Xi Jinping told him that China would not sell weapons under any circumstance Iran said we have a comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran and China strongly supports Iran and safeguarding its sovereignty. All very notable in deed. Oh, how about finally this?

22:28Ben Meiselas:Remember Donald Trump bragging when he met with Xi Jinping and he let Xi Jinping talk about the Thucydides trap and how the United States is weak compared to China? And Donald Trump's like, yeah, we are weak, but gee, aren't I hot? Don't I make us look a little more hot? And Xi Jinping's like, okay, man, okay, pathetic. I mean, it was like the most pathetic international trip. Seriously, right? Donald Trump's done a lot of pathetic trips, the G7, the NATO summit, but the China trip with Xi Jinping talking about Thucydides' trap and Trump's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, Thucydides, huh? Right.

23:06Ben Meiselas:The most embarrassing presidential visit ever. He kissed the ring. Trump bowed down to Xi Jinping. But the one thing that got nothing out of it, but Trump's like, Like Xi Jinping promised he was going to buy Boeing jets, right? But Xi Jinping was going to buy like one quarter of the Boeing jets that were promised previously. You know, that's like Donald Trump. Like, yeah, we got out 10 % of the ships from the Strait of Hormuz than before the war. Victory. China's buying 25 % the amount of soybeans than they were under Biden. 25 % the amount. Yeah, we did it. Okay, that's worse. You want more, not less, you idiot, Donald.

23:44Ben Meiselas:But how about this? The Boeing deal with China falling apart. They're having a hard time with it, said one of the people familiar with U.S. thinking on the talks. China's demand for parts and service guarantees to avoid the impact of possible future U.S. export restrictions has stymied the purchase agreement. Falling apart. Trump's Boeing deal has turbulence in Beijing. Exactly. Hit subscribe. Let's get to 7 million subscribers. Thanks for watching, everybody.

24:41you

From the publisher

MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Donald Trump caving after China's leader Xi Jinping issued a deadly ultimatum Trump.

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