Trump Faces a Red-State Reckoning

17 Aug 2026 · 23 min · 9 chapters

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In short

The episode argues Trump and MAGA Republicans are facing a “red-state reckoning” ahead of the midterms, driven by weak approval in Senate battleground states and voter backlash on cost of living/inflation and other issues (including data centers, gas prices, and Iran policy). It highlights Democrats surging in places like Ohio, Texas, and Iowa, and uses polling comparisons to Nixon-era lows.

Guests

No specific guests are identified in the transcript as interviewees. It mentions segments with “Harry Enten” and “Jack Cacciarella” (Midas Touch), plus references to candidates like Hina Hossa, Al Syed, and Senator Jon Ossoff, but they are not presented as guests with bios.

Key claims

Trump approval is “underwater” by double-digit margins in multiple states; Republicans can’t win in this environment; data-center plans are tied to utility bills/water use and alleged corruption.

Notable examples

Iowa State Fair heckling of Rob Sand and booing Mark Kelly; Texas ad alleging Ken Paxton stole a $1,000 Mont Blanc pen; Tallarico’s attacks on Paxton/Trump for data centers and tax breaks on electricity.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Trump's Approval and Midterm Concerns

0:07 to 1:06

Analyzing Trump's declining approval rates and its impact on elections.

“It seems like Donald Trump is going to cost the MAGA Republicans not just the House of Representatives, but the Senate and most of the key Senate races, including in some of those once thought of as ruby red seats.”

Polling and Economic Perceptions

1:06 to 2:19

Exploring how economic issues affect voter perception of Republicans.

“Let me show you the latest polling right here.”

MAGA Behavior at the Iowa State Fair

2:19 to 4:30

Examining MAGA's tactics and reactions during the Iowa State Fair.

“I don't love talking about prediction markets, but Democrats in the prediction markets are saying the prediction markets say Democrats are going to win there.”

Rob Sand's Response to MAGA Tactics

4:30 to 6:48

Discussion of Rob Sand's reactions to heckling from MAGA supporters.

“also decided that they were going to attack Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who was there supporting Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate for Senate right there, who's running against MAGA extremist Ashley Hinton.”

Ken Paxton's Controversies in Texas

6:48 to 10:55

Revealing scandals surrounding Texas Senator Ken Paxton's actions.

“A massive crowd for James Tallarico out there.”

Tallarico's Vision Against Corruption

11:02 to 13:13

James Tallarico speaks against corruption and data center policies in Texas.

“All right, back to Tallarico here for a moment.”

Uncovering Child Sex Trafficking

14:01 to 15:03

Discussion on child sex trafficking and Trump's connections.

“They're covering up child sex trafficking.”

Clips from the Senate Hearing

15:04 to 16:35

Highlights from Senate hearing involving candidate Al Syed and Trump's remarks.

“Then we had Jack Cacciarella over at Midas Touch, the weekend show on Sunday.”

Trump's Approval Ratings in Red States

16:36 to 17:53

Analysis of Trump's declining approval ratings in battleground states.

“He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Ben Meiselas:Uh-oh, Donald. Donald Trump is getting a rude awakening in red states heading into the midterms. It seems like Donald Trump is going to cost the MAGA Republicans not just the House of Representatives, but the Senate and most of the key Senate races, including in some of those once thought of as ruby red seats. Democrats are surging ahead and we're talking about places like Ohio. We're talking about places like Texas. MAGA awfully worried in Iowa. MAGA awfully worried in Alaska. MAGA is up panicking right now. And Donald Trump just continues the never-ending war in Iran. Donald Trump continues to say, it's a great thing that we're all paying so much more money for gas because that's what patriots do.

0:48Ben Meiselas:Donald Trump says, yeah, pay more money for gas. And Donald Trump also says, data centers in everyone's backyard. You want that liquid gold? Open up your backyard to Donald Trump's oligarch friends, and they'll get you that liquid gold right in your backyard in the form of data centers. Not sure why I'm doing that accent, because maybe it's a red state video. I don't know. Let me show you the latest polling right here. Arienton talked about how Trump's approval right now in some of these red states is so bad. We're talking, it's as bad overall to the net unfavorables nationwide as when Nixon resigned even worse right now.

1:24Ben Meiselas:I think it'd be a good idea if Donald Trump resigned. Here, let's play this clip. It's just this. What put Donald Trump in the White House? What put him in the White House? What put him in the White House was that they thought he could help, voters thought he could help them with their cost of living. But look at this. The impact of Republican policies on your cost of living. Just 24%, 24 % of Americans say help. Look at this hurt number. It's 55 % on the issue that got Donald Trump a second term in the White House, a second presidency. Folks, you got to be picking up your phone if you're a Republican in Congress and calling Donald Trump up and saying, help me, help me, please, Rhonda, help me, help me, please, because you can't win.

2:06It's very tough to win with this type of environment. On the number one issue being inflation and 51 percent of the American public think that your party has in fact hurt your cost of living. That is very, very bad news.

2:18Ben Meiselas:You see right here, Democrats surging ahead in some of these states. I don't love talking about prediction markets, but Democrats in the prediction markets are saying the prediction markets say Democrats are going to win there. When you look at more models like the split ticket and those guys are data geeks like me, they've got Democrats also surging ahead in all of these Senate races also. So when you take a look, though, at what's going on in these red states, not just in the Senate races, but some of the big state races. You take a look at an Iowa, Iowa State Fair. Let me show you typical MAGA behavior right here.

2:55Ben Meiselas:So you have the turning point that was Charlie Kirk's group. I think they're still around turning points, whatever. And their Iowa leader is this guy, Brett Galsazowski. And he and his turning point group of six people are first day at the Iowa State Fair. And we've already heckled the DSA-aligned candidate for governor, Rob Sand. I mean, saying that Rob Sand is DSA-aligned is kind of wild. Dude even hid in the bathroom so the state police could show up to escort him out. Sorry to cut your visit short, Rob. TP action. This is how we do it at Turning Points is what they're saying. Let me just show you what they're doing in Iowa.

3:40Ben Meiselas:Here, play this clip.

3:57Ben Meiselas:Really, that's the mature behavior. Can I show you how Rob Sand, though, the Democratic candidate for governor, responded? He said, I don't know what they're doing or how these kids think they're effective. I felt bad for all the people around us who were just trying to enjoy the Iowa State Fair and having their experience disrupted. So that's all I have to say about it. And he said his message to his own supporters, don't behave like the kids from Turning Points USA. But that didn't stop them in Iowa. They also decided that they were going to attack Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who was there supporting Josh Turek, the Democratic candidate for Senate right there, who's running against MAGA extremist Ashley Hinton.

4:42Ben Meiselas:Here's what went down when the turning point, I mean, the kids are such losers when they're like, boo, Mark Kelly, boo. Boo Mark Kelly. Mark Kelly's like, dude, what the hell are you booing me, man? A bunch of weirdos, like six kids with sides. It's really quite embarrassing. Here play this clip.

5:07Ben Meiselas:And let me just share with you, Rob Sand, just a brief portion of like what he was actually saying. Play this clip. California and New York. They are not utopia. They have problems. Now, some of the problems are different because the parties are different, but many of them are actually the same because when too few people have too much power for too long, bad things happen. You finish this phrase, power corrupts an absolute power. And we can say in Iowa, it takes 10 years. Because where are we right now? Over the last three years, averaging 48th for personal income growth. But what are we at the top for in growth?

5:49When I was growing up in Decorah, our education system was among the best in the country. And we are now in the bottom half and losing to Nebraska. it's funny but it's also really not funny i hate losing to braska we have a corruption crisis a crisis of high costs and a crisis of cancer but in the capitol building in nemoine they're running around saying hey guys we got a real problem the state auditor he won't quit doing his job we got to figure out how we can stop him i'm had enough this is a simple concept. I think most Iowans are familiar with it. You can put something in a place and it does okay for a little while, but if it's there for too long, it gets unbalanced.

6:33You got to take it out and put something else in. I just described crop rotation and that works for politicians the same way it does for corn and beans, ladies and gentlemen. Time to rotate the crops in the Capitol building.

6:47Ben Meiselas:All right, now let's zoom in on Texas for a moment. Let's go to Abilene, Texas right here. A massive crowd for James Tallarico out there. And by the way, you see Tallarico's new ad against Paxton. Paxton is falling and falling hard in the polls. People in Texas are loving Tallarico. Let me share with you this new ad drop by Tallarico about how, this is a true story, 14 years ago, Ken Paxton stole someone's$1 ,000 pen. And now Ken Paxton, Paxton's pen victim is endorsing James Tallarico. Did you hear this story? Dude was also making, what, a million dollars a year on a cell tower above a hospital.

7:33Ben Meiselas:He was on the board of the hospital. He was making a million dollars on the cell tower while he's in office. What the hell's going on here? Here, play this clip of his ad. Here, let's play this clip. This is Ken Paxton, and this is Ken Paxton stealing someone's thousand dollar pen. Here's what happened. The incident happened at the Collin County Courthouse, the same courthouse where Paxton would later be indicted for investment fraud. Paxton walked up to the trays next to the metal detectors, rummaged through them, and came across someone else's expensive Mont Blanc pen. He decided to take it for himself.

8:04The pen belonged to Joe Joplin, a local attorney who'd accidentally left it behind. It was a special gift from his wife. When Joe realized it was missing, he contacted courthouse security. This is the footage they pulled. Ken Paxton, on camera, stealing this man's pen. After the police got involved, Joe got his pen back. He could have pressed charges, but he decided against it. Because Joe's a nice guy. He'd never take someone else's pen. But he also hasn't forgotten who took his. Hi, I'm Joe Joplin, and I endorse James Tallarico for the United States Senate.

8:38Ben Meiselas:Vote for James Tallarico. He won't steal your pen. Dude, how good is that? And by the way, the Tallarico team do merch drop. Get your very own, not Ken Paxton's pen today. Going back right here for Harry Enten for a second. Listen to this bombshell right here of just how bad Donald Trump's approval rating is right now. Worse than Nixon when Nixon resigned. Here, play this clip. Well, it's all about Donald Trump, baby. It's all about Donald Trump. Look at Trump's net approval rating across these Senate battleground states. And these are states, Democrats have to win at least a few of them for control.

9:14Look at them. They're red. They're red across the political map. A state like Texas that Donald Trump won by double digits. He's way down underwater in the Rio Grande Valley at minus nine points. Ohio, another state he won by double digits, 10 points underwater. Iowa, the great field of dreams. Well, it's a field of nightmares right now for Donald Trump. He's 10 points underwater. North Carolina, the Tar Heel State, 14 points underwater. In Maine, where, of course, Susan Collins is running and Democrats have, let's say, had some issues. But even there, look at that. Donald Trump is 21 points underwater.

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11:02Ben Meiselas:All right, back to Tallarico here for a moment. Powerful moment in Tallarico's speech where he calls out Donald Trump and Ken Paxton's plan to put data centers in everyone's backyard. I'm not being hyperbolic. I mean, go listen to what their speeches were. And in Texas, y 'all know this better than anybody, that Governor Abbott, who by the way, is neck and neck with Hina Hossa, who's running against him. We had Hina Hossa on the show. But Abbott instituted a law that said that data centers don't have to pay any taxes on electricity. So, and the whole thing is they suck up people's electricity.

11:40Ben Meiselas:It's one of the biggest problems with it. Come on, data centers, come on in. And look, Trump and Paxton and Abbott, all these people have said they want data centers in everybody's backyard. You want to be rich? You want to be rich? Just put a data center into our backyard. Trust me. Trust me. I alone can tell you. I mean, so pathetic. Listen to what Talarico said play this clip. We can start by cracking down on these data centers across the state that are jacking up our utility bills and using up all our water. I know, I know that Abilene has been the epicenter of this data center fight. And I want you to know that in the U.S.

12:22Senate, you will have an ally in me in the halls of power.

12:29We just found out that Ken Paxton, the most corrupt politician in Texas We just found out that Ken Paxton has taken nearly half a million dollars from data center companies That explains why as Attorney General, Ken Paxton ignored our neighbors in Hood County after they asked him to help them temporarily block the construction of a data center in their community. Texans cannot afford a senator who's bought by big data centers. Texans can't afford Ken Paxton's corruption. Ken Paxton is not working for us. He's working for his mega donors. In the Senate, I will fight to stop data centers from being built in our communities if they cannot meet the most basic demands of those communities.

13:25Ben Meiselas:And here was a major moment when Tallarico was at Wheeler Avenue Baptist Church. You see this moment? He's just a likable guy. He's just a likable guy. To me, I want to find, whether you're religious or not religious, I just want you to be a good person. I want you to be empathetic. I want you to be nice. I want you to care about people. If you're running for government and you're running to be in the position of a public servant, I want you to do just that. I want you to serve the public. I want service to lead the way, not whatever this Trump MAGA grift is where they just steal and they take from us and they cover up child sex trafficking rings.

14:01Ben Meiselas:They're covering up child sex trafficking. I got to continue to scream that from the rooftop, but these people are coming. Trump was Epstein's friend. Now they're covering up child sex trafficking rings. Crazy. Here, play this clip. Ready for the Senate? Day two.

14:20Yes, sir. somebody likes mr tallarico i see we're glad you're here sir we welcome you to wheeler avenue baptist church he is a professed born again believer and i thank god for his love for jesus christ his love for god's people yeah i can always tell who's a real church person when the hymn was being sung. He knew the words and he could sing all of it. I saw you. I was watching, had my eyes on you because if you didn't know that song, I wasn't going to believe none of that stuff about going to church.

15:01Thank you, T, for being here.

15:03Ben Meiselas:We appreciate you. Then we had Jack Cacciarella over at Midas Touch, the weekend show on Sunday. He caught up with Al Syed, who's running for Senate in Michigan. He had a great line. Here, listen to this play this clip. Obviously, you have ruffled some feathers with the worst person on the planet. That is Donald Trump, a man who has no real connection to his family, but decided to go after yours. Obviously, you responded. But what was the first thing you felt in that moment when Donald Trump decided he was going to go after your wife in such a disgusting way? Come at us, bro. My wife is more strength than he has ever had.

15:40So come at us, see what happens. I mean, at the end of the day, he's going to turn me into the main character of the midterms, which I'm totally cool with because my whole argument about Mike Rogers is he's always been an NPC. And Mike Rogers, I mean - He's not a real guy. No, he is like an amalgam of something. He's a sock puppet. Like it really, the question is who inserts themselves in him and then controls his mouth. And Donald Trump can't help himself. So part of me is like, come for me, bro. See what happens.

16:05Ben Meiselas:And of course, the line of the week though goes to Senator Ossoff. Natalie, Natalie, Donald. Donald just wants to run away with Natalie. Natalie Harp, Donald Trump's human printer is what they call her. And Ossoff's like, we know that you just want to go away with Natalie Harp and do whatever with Natalie Harp. But the American people actually need leadership right now, Donald. Need leadership right now. Here play this clip. And while the sailors on the Lincoln fight his war, while he fruitlessly drains our munitions and oil reserves, the president sleeps through his meetings. He golfs and trades stocks.

16:53See, he doesn't want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar.

17:14Ben Meiselas:Then back to Harry Enten over here. Let's play it. Well, it's all about Donald Trump, baby. It's all about Donald Trump. Look at Trump's net approval rating across these Senate battleground states. And these are states Democrats have to win at least a few of them for control. Look at them. They're red. They're red across the political map. A state like Texas that Donald Trump won by double digits. He's way down underwater in the Rio Grande Valley at minus nine points. Ohio, another state he won by double digits, 10 points underwater. Iowa, the great field of dreams. Well, it's a field of nightmares right now for Donald Trump.

17:48He's 10 points underwater. North Carolina, the Tar Heel state, 14 points underwater. in Maine, where, of course, Susan Collins is running and Democrats have, let's say, had some issues. But even there, look at that. Donald Trump is 21 points underwater.

18:23Ben Meiselas:old glasses had the sentimental, they were scratched up. I know I like the old glasses. I get attached to things, but these are new glasses. These new glasses are great. I feel like I've opened up my, I don't know why. Did you get your copy of WTF America, by the way, the book I wrote with my brothers? Pre-order it now if you can. Our publisher says the pre-orders are so important. Keep the momentum on the pre-orders going. So get your WTF America now. What the F is going on? Hey, if you want the full story, how democracy got here and how we take it back, pre-order our new book, WTF America, today.

18:57Just scan the QR code or click the link in the description. Let's do this.

From the publisher

MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Donald Trump losing his MAGA base as Red States are finally turning against him as he sinks to new lows in the polls.

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