Analyze This: Talking Through the More Confusing NFL (and Fantasy) Storylines

24:28Like I really wanted a little bit of a different profile perhaps, but if he's anything like he looked in the preseason, it's hard for me not to get excited about this defense.

24:38Robert Mays:I think he'll also, they'll use him in a bunch of ways. I mean, the same way that they used Jihad Campbell a little bit on the edge last year, but that was the whole thing with Barsham. And I think they'll do some five, they'll do some five one stuff with him, I think this year. And I think the front diversity and multiplicity is going to be a huge part of this team, period. I think Christian Parker is going to believe in that. Linebacker is absolutely a question. You're relying on Damarian Overshone has been more of an idea than anything else over the course of his career. And then a rookie that is changing positions.

25:06Robert Mays:but I don't know man I just I think that there's gonna be a lot of similar DNA with the Philly stuff but Christian Parker one of the reasons that I'm I'm like I've been the biggest Christian Parker guy for like three years like he's been the defensive coordinator candidate in the league I've been most excited about I think for a lot of different reasons but I think there's a couple things that make me excited about it because it's not going to be just be copy paste one Christian Parker's first job in the league was working for Mike Pettin. I think he believes in some pressure stuff in a way that they didn't always lean into over the course of his time with Vic.

25:42Robert Mays:And I'll be curious to see how much of that we see. And I honestly think Barsham and Overshown both moving forward more than they're moving back is something I could potentially be interested in. And two, there's just been a diversity of how they've played in the stops he's even had with Vic. Like when they were in Denver, it's like, we're just going to play more man coverage because we have the horses to do that. I think they've been open-minded about the type of team they need to be based on their personnel, and he's seen that a lot. And I think a similar process here, hopefully come out on the other side with the right answers.

26:14Robert Mays:You never know that with a first-year coordinator, but I think the process will be correct. I also just like the edges that they have. I mentioned I kind of lied over the fact that I really like what I saw from Azaraku, but between Azaraku, Gary, Again, going back to Seattle and Philadelphia, having edges who are really good against the run is very important in those schemes. And on paper, they've got that here in Dallas. And those guys don't, again, to go back to the teams I mentioned, they don't have to be 13-plus sack guys for this defense to work and be successful. Quinton Williams is the tip of the spear here, right?

26:53So I'm excited to watch it. But listen, last year they literally could not communicate on the back end. I mean, the thing I always said about the Dallas defense is it felt like it was just full of air at all times.

27:10Robert Mays:That was awful. So bad in zone coverage. So they're going to be better almost by default here, but I think just given the type of talent, the coaching, it's a good pick. for this is the, and then if that happens, I mean, with this offense, good God. Um, okay. I almost believe in it too much. Yeah, I know. It worries me how, how optimistic I am about the entire situation right now. It's not a comfortable place for me. I shouldn't be also saying Jackson Barham changes everything. We're talking about a tweener third round linebacker who played like one half of a pre like, just get out of here. If you're not talking like that after preseason week to you're not living.

27:48Robert Mays:That's the entire point of this. Okay. Mine's a little, my next one's a little bit less fun. I, I wrote, how good does Bryce Young have to be to earn another season as a Panther starter? So Panthers picked up his fifth year option, but you know, it's not that much. So I've had trouble kind of talking about the Panthers offense. I think just because of Bryce and generally trying to work through whether I think he has another level to reach. Because I do think it's worth acknowledging that he has improved every year in the NFL. I was looking at his career numbers, and in EPA per play, he has risen every year, most only in success rate.

28:32He went from 30th to 29th to 17th last year. Now, some of that has to do with him being extremely conservative last season. I feel like this kind of got lost in the wash, but he was 32nd, just above Rodgers in average depth of target. Part of the reason why his sack rate in interceptions came down. But he became a more efficient quarterback. And I do think there's potential for another jump this year. This offense, what they've done, losing the tackles hurt. That Freeling looked really good. I talked about that in the preseason. Still like this receiver group. They could still use maybe one more player.

29:12but like for you from an organizational perspective what would you have to see to justify continuing with this and do you think Bryce is capable of it I think you'd have to

29:23Robert Mays:be knocking on the door of like a championship caliber offense and when I say that I mean something like if you finish this year 12th in some offensive efficiency metric and you could talk yourself into taking another small step forward next year for I mean as simple of a reason as we lost Chris Basil coming into the year. He would have given us the opportunity to do all this different stuff because we felt like we could stick him on the line of scrimmage. Leggett is a vertical player, but he's a vertical player you have to create separation for. And so I think it makes you pigeonhole the other two pass catchers a little bit too much.

29:55Robert Mays:Again, your offensive line, you're shuffling from day one. If you can get Moten back at some point this year, you move Freeling to left tackle. Can the offensive line be even better next year? That's where it would have to be. I would have to be in a position if I were Dan Morgan saying, I think we are close enough to have like a Super Bowl caliber offense in 2027 with some more incremental improvements for me to feel good about just rolling it back with him. Because at a certain point, you got to be ready to compete. You've spent money. I mean, there's enough of this core. Like Moten's getting older.

30:28Robert Mays:Devin Lloyd's 29, 30 years old. Jalen Phillips is like, you've spent the money. At a certain point, you got to be knocking on the door. You're not in year one or two of this build anymore. Now you're closer to year four. And so if you don't think he's close enough or you're ready to compete, then what are we doing? Like if you're the 20th best offense in the league again, you're really having to tell yourself a story about what the ceiling of this thing feels like at a time when you really should be getting ready to be competitive. I wrote 2024 Baker is the threshold where I would want to continue moving forward with him as the starting quarterback for any kind of long-term.

31:09I was trying to think to your point.

31:10Robert Mays:The guy through 40 touchdowns in 2024? But like, where would you rank 2024 Baker? Probably like the 12th, right? To your point. That's what I was just trying to think of like, like where's the bar here? And that was weird because Baker is that incredibly rare thing in the NFL, which is a middle-class quarterback, which is obviously leading to some strife at the moment. So it's like, if you could get Young to that level where he's in that 13, 15-ish, 12 to 15-ish range, and you can do a middle-class contract with that, how does that compare to you ripping it up and trying it again? Those are the difficult decisions teams have to make like Tampa.

31:53Robert Mays:I would say a couple different things to that. One, even if Baker is a small or a quarterback, he's significantly bigger than Bryce Young and I think has significantly more physical ability than Bryce Young. the arm talent and even the scrambling like baker's ability to break tackles to do things with his legs like bryce can be a creative player in the pocket but he's not somebody that has the over like the physical the requisite physical ability to be a guy who's doing a lot with his legs he's not a scrambler he hasn't been and so i think baker gives you more than that here's we talked about this a little bit on our show this week and i think this is where i land with it what you're describing is such a specific situation.

32:34Robert Mays:All right. If it's a middle-class quarterback contract, which don't exist by the way, not on second deals to get a middle-class quarterback contract, you got to flame out and start over somewhere. Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, that's like, those are the only ones. And so Bryce's people know that too. And so the idea that they're going to take 35 million a year on a rookie contract extension, I think that's going to be tough to talk them into. But even if that happens, and even if you say, all right, if the top of the market's 60, we're paying him 35. What can we do with the excess 25 to make up for the gap between him and those other top guys?

33:08Robert Mays:I think, I don't know if that's the right way to look at it. I think the opportunity cost that comes with playing him at quarterback and preventing yourself the opportunity to upgrade is potentially more dangerous than saving the 25 million if you get him on a middle-class quarterback contract. That's where I sit with it. I feel like you kind of, your tone has answered how you feel about the prospects of this. I know. I don't mean to put words in your mouth. No, you're right. I wish I could believe in it more. Because that second half of the 24 season was fun. I was ready to buy in. I wanted to see him take that step last year.

33:46Robert Mays:And he took a small step. And if you're trying to make the optimistic case, this is it. They never were in a position last year where the pass catching spots were shortened because the moment that they understood how they wanted to use McMillan, Coker got hurt. And so then McMillan had to be in that very stationary role within the offense the entire year. Having Coker and being able to mix and match those two, and then you add a guy like Jonathan Brooks to the mix, you have no yak on this team last year. You have no manufactured ability. Book should give you some of that. So there's a chance that even with the offensive line shuffling, which they were shuffling last year, that this is the best circumstances he's ever played in before.

34:23Robert Mays:that that's how you would start making the case for why it can be better i think i'm just in a place where i'm running out of hope about it looking significantly better than it's looked certainly with any consistent i mean he just hasn't put together stretches it's just been very inconsistent from him so up and down i will say you know the one thing we talked about on tuesday we only saw a drive with him but um right it's like i thought the offense looked good so So we'll see. That's another one of the mysteries of the season. Dave Canales, hand your play calling. And I thought it looked pretty damn good.

34:59Another instance of like, put the big guy in the slot that we love. Okay. From Tara.

35:05Robert Mays:That one's real though. He should be in the slot. Cause he was incredible in there last year. He really is. Okay. You're next. What do you got? I want to know what is going to be the sneaky, terrible offense in the NFL this year. Okay. Because I think there are a lot of, well, the team that we're not talking about right now, It could be one of the obvious ones, but I think even the obvious offenses you, I'm sure you've done this this summer. Have you talked yourself into the Cardinals being better than we expect? No, everyone. No, I am staying away from this. Interesting. Yeah. They're probably, first of all, I don't believe in this defense at all.

35:40They're too many injuries.

35:41Robert Mays:I don't mean the team. I don't mean the team. They could win three games. I'm talking about watchability on offense. Oh yeah. Yeah, well, like Jacoby Brissett, hilarious after the Carson Beck hype of the whole game game, shows up, rolls in and is like, hey, I'm a professional quarterback. I'm going to throw the best throw you're going to see in the entire preseason. But also like, yeah, the offensive line, people slept on how hurt and horrible it was last year. I think they're going to be upgraded in a huge way. It's obviously a group of skilled players. That's very fun. I think there's possibility of Michael Fleur using Marvin Harrison Jr.

36:14in ways that actually maybe vault him to his star potential, but at least makes him a solid number one receiver. Yeah, this could be a good offense. So that's one. Yeah. Can you do that with the Dolphins? No. They're going to be fun in a perverted way.

36:34Robert Mays:Yes, but correct. In a football nerd, perverted, twisted mindset. said oh the offensive line and HN and what if Malik Willis is decent like I think a lot of the offenses that were coming into the season being like this is going to be trash you can actually kind of make a reasonable argument for why I'm not talking about like top 20 I'm talking about the way we discussed the Saints last year where it was like man this is going to be a train wreck and then we get to week 14 and it's like I kind of like watching it I think there's going to be a few of those but there's also going to be a team like last year's Raiders okay so last year's Raiders.

37:07So that let's position it this way. What's the offense that we're, we're not scared enough about. I just dovetails with my next one. I'm nervous about the commanders, man.

37:21Robert Mays:There. I think they're a candidate for this. I wonder if the quarterback is too good for them to truly bottom out. I'm nervous. So they could get her again, but yeah. Commanders, I think are in this conversation. We talked about this. I think the Titans are in this conversation, there's a chance the Titans just bottom out. And here there are two things. There are competing voices in my head about the Titans bottoming out. The teams that do this are often the teams that are not from the Kubiak Shanahan world. And what I mean by that is I think when you have a running and pass game tied together and you use a ton of under center play action, it establishes a certain floor for your protection rules.

38:00Robert Mays:Like you're only going to get so bad because you're not laying your tackles out to dry. The Titans are not going to be that sort of team. The Titans are going to be like a gun. We're dropping back all the time RPO team. And the line talent is not good. I think their line coach is good. And so I think hopefully that is enough, but they're a candidate for this. I actually thought the line had some decent run blocking reps. Look, okay, so Titans offseason, their preseason has been really a rough watch. And it's been a bummer because I think a lot of us, went back and watched the second half of cam warren we're really excited and they've got these new receivers and all that and then preseason hit like an anvil like a like a dog god and i said after week one let's give this is new operation cam everything's new new play color new receivers board's timing looked a little off he was missing throws i didn't talk about um i meant to it i forgot to talk about this last week because we saw a lot more of him against the seahawks this was a little bit more mixed for me candidly because a lot of what went wrong this time wasn't Cam Ward's fault.

39:01Actually, there was he actually made some throws that should have been caught. Um, he also missed some open opportunities. I really continuing to see that is disappointing. Cardinal Tate hasn't caught a freaking pass, dude. Like what is happening here? That's the fourth overall pick and I liked it and I'm I am not I am not hitting the panic button. It is we have done this before. It's the preseason. But like if you're Brian Dable, like make it happen, right? Like what?

39:31Robert Mays:I don't want to overreact too much, but this is the point of the discussion. There's going to be one of these teams. There's one of these teams every year. Two years ago, I would say the bears were that team where coming into the season, it was like, Oh boy, look at the, look at the pass catchers, Caleb Williams, let's do this. And then you watch it five weeks in and like, Oh, this is a flaming disaster. Like they're just, there are certain, there is a certain team every year where you just kind of realize the offensive infrastructure is broken by virtue of how they're approaching it. I think the 2024 Seahawks were kind of like that.

40:04Robert Mays:And last year's Raiders are a perfect example of this. Well, you're listening to the teams, your name, the through line is just like, who's the team with the F'd up offensive line that we're not acknowledging. It's the offensive line part of it, but I also think it's about infrastructure. Because I think you can have, it's the Seahawks, again, the Seahawks going from 24 to 25 are a great example of this. The Seahawks drafted Gray Zabel. Great, right? The Greg Zabel is a good player. Other than that, it's a lot of the same guys. Yeah, full season for Mabel Lucas was a big difference for the 25 CX.

40:34Robert Mays:But I still think that what you're asking of the players... Yeah, don't worry. You're talking... The year before, I think, Charles Cross led the NFL in true pass sets. Led the NFL. It's a shotgun, drop back, seven-step drop every single time. Okay. And what you're asking of the line matters. Here's the thing that connects to what you're saying, because again, you're talking about the 2024 CX and the 2025 Raiders other than the fact that Gino Smith is the quarterback of both those teams. I'm fading college play callers forever after those two seasons. Grubb, who was amazing for my beloved Washington Huskies, and then Chip Kelly.

41:09No, I'm not doing that again. So, you know, at least like the Titans have like Brian Dable. Yes, you're like, I think you make a really good point about how it's not going to help the line, but at least he's an NFL play caller. So I guess let's wrap here. Is there any team where you're like, we need to worry more about this offensive line though, and maybe we're not talking enough. We'll get to the commanders in a second. Is there anyone else where you're like, maybe this should be a bigger conversation?

41:33Robert Mays:The Titans are a team that I would throw out there. A lot of the other offensive lines that I think are a little bit worrisome, like the Packers are a perfect example of this, right? The Packers offensive line is not a good group in terms of talent, but I have enough faith in the staff to just get passable play out of them. Again, I like the Titans line coach, but this stuff is more about what it looks like systemically than it is about what the quality of the line coach is.

42:01Jags staring at me. I love them so much, though, and I'm so high on them. And I like the play caller that I think it mitigates the fact that I have questions about the offensive line. I'm just looking at teams that should be good. The Lions...

42:14Robert Mays:The Patriots are a team like this for me, by the way. Patriots. That's the one. That's the one I would throw out. I pretend I do not see it when you think about some of these. I mean, like there's a really a world in which the Lions offensive line gives haywire that I feel like we're not acknowledging enough. I think it there's enough to compensate for it. I don't think the bottom is going to fall off, but like there's a lot of questions in youth on that line. Oh, here's another one. I mean, everyone thinks this offense is going to suck, so it's not a good candidate. I kind of feel like people have slept on the attrition in Atlanta on the offensive line.

42:48like everyone just thinks they're this elite zone blocking unit it's like they've got the loss players over the years and guys have retired like it's I don't think it's as much of a strength as he's been

42:58Robert Mays:I think four out of those five guys are okay I think Nuzel's passable I think they're excited about the other three like the two guards and Matthews are fine and I think Juwan Taylor can get you by like I don't that that's one I'm a little bit less worried about than some of the others Juwan Taylor can get you by alright All right. We got to wrap here. So I'll do my last one. And I kind of hinted at this. Okay. So we've got these three play callers who are bringing similar offenses to the East Coast of the NFL, calling them DMB. Doyle, Mannion, and Blau. It just occurred to me that DMB is Dave Matthews fan, as I said.

43:37Yes, it is. I didn't think about that. Good thing.

43:43Robert Mays:uh a lot of closet dave matthews but not even closet dave matthews band fans in the nfl coaching world a lot of very outwardly dave matthews bands the nfl coaching world a lot of 30 and 40 something old white guys who listen to this correct so i'm sure y 'all were like yeah as soon as i said anyways okay one of them is is gonna crash and burn right like like i just think has to has right the odds and i probably tipped my hand with the one that i'm worried about the most and first of all none of what I'm about to say is about the actual people. You've talked to them more than I have. I don't know.

44:14I genuinely feel like with coaches and play callers, we'll see. Like, I try not to like come down on, it's not like an example like a Mike Medina. We know what we have with him. We don't know. We know their lineage. We know that they have like Ben Johnson connections or Green Bay connections or LaFleur and Shannon, whatever. We know what style of offenses they run. We don't know if they're going to be good at. We don't know if they're going to be good at using their personnel. We don't know if they're going to be good at in-game adjustments. We don't know how they're going to evolve over the course of the season.

44:38We don't know, but we do know the players that are on these teams. So I guess I ask you this, when you think about these offensive transformations and the quarterbacks and the players, is there one where you're just like, this might not work and it might be really bad?

44:51Robert Mays:Philly is the first place I go just because I trust the quarterback more in Washington. Okay. Fair. Totally. I trust the quarterback more. I think that the circumstances in Washington could be way worse, but I also think the standard is different, right? The idea of this didn't work is much different in Washington than it is in Philly. If the Eagles are in a top eight offense with Sean Mannion, it probably didn't work. If the, if Washington is the 23rd ranked offense with David Blau, it might've worked. Yeah. And so I think it's just, those are two very different things. Yes. The expectations are different.

45:27And also this like, yeah, well, you trust the quarterback more, but it's totally unprecedented for him.

45:36Robert Mays:This is yes, but I, I have, I have some faith that he can adjust to it. Like I, I just trust the quarterback more. I, but again, I think that it's the standard here matters. And like, if, if the Eagles get to a place where they're the fifth best rushing offense in the league, but they're the 18th best passing offense again, I don't think that's a good place for you to have landed. I think that that's not what you're trying to do here. Doyle is the one I feel best about. Yes. And because Lamar of these three quarterbacks is the one we have seen do this type run this type of awesome extremely well all the best in the NFL.

46:12In fact, by many statistics, I also think that they have the I feel comfortable with the line in this scheme. I know center is the question mark, but I'm still a little bit unclear about the deployment of personnel and like what they're going to live in and what it's going to look like. But I think they've got enough pieces where they can figure it out. but the quarterback gives me a comfort level there just because of, I mean, he is such a good fit for an under center throwing over the middle of the field. Like he is extremely good at those things. So we can throw that one out. If that one crashes and burns, I think it'll be due to offensive line injuries.

46:47And perhaps I will throw this out. The thing, if I'm a Ravens fan, I would keep me up my night. What if the version of Lamar we saw last year, as it pertains to athleticism and taking sacks is closer to the version going forward than the one we saw a real possibility. He's 29 years old. I don't want to disregard that that's I don't want to like just be pat and be like that was not that was fake. He's going to be back to he's he's 29. You know, it could happen. But let's set that one aside and focus on, you know, Philadelphia versus Washington. I think my concern with Washington, Robert, is that they'll just give it up, that they'll be like, oh, this isn't working.

47:19The line is injuries. We don't have a center. We no longer have a left tackle and it's not as efficient. and it is a lot more efficient when we just play fast and put our quarterback in the gun and lean on him to run a lot. And does it just seem more likely that they might abandon ship a little bit earlier on? Or do you think that they're committed to making this work?

47:39Robert Mays:I think they're committed to making it work, but I also just think the circumstances are different. David Blau, I think this offense will share the most DNA if you're looking around the league with Ben Johnson's ideas. David Blau has never coached under Ben Johnson. Yeah, he was on the team. Everybody keeps saying that. I know, it's so funny. Thank you for saying that. Because everyone, I've got to tell me stories where people are like, and he learned under Ben Johnson. I'm like, excuse me. I remember him on the death chart. And he's coached for two years. And the only place he's coached is in Washington.

48:12That Thanksgiving Day game that haunts me.

48:15Robert Mays:I just, that's the one where, like, Sean Mannion at least spent a year on the staff with Matt LaFleur. Like, I mean, he's been in those rooms. He's been part of the plan. And so both of them, though, this is such an accelerated process for both of those guys. I mean, they've barely been NFL coaches, and now they're both offensive coordinators. The chance that both of those hit, I think it's remote. One of them is going to go worse than we want it to. The thing I think I'm interested in Philly, I talk about Washington and the possibility that they might abandon ship there in terms of the scheme change, is because the Eagles' defense is so good, they kind of spot them some games.

48:53So I wonder if there might be a little bit more patience there if the offense is a bit up and down. Philly fans, known for their patience. Early in the season as they start to figure things out. I admit I'm a little bit discouraged by the camp reports over the last two weeks and apparently how things went against the Patriots and all of that. I will say my optimism there is that Mannion coming from Green Bay I view as like kind of the correct marriage of worlds a little bit, which is to say like I, the Lafleur interpretation of the Shanahan offense and what we've seen in particular over the last years, but both Jordan love and Malik Willis, the way they would get to play action from different formations, the run game, the parts of the field, the quarterback was throwing to it's less of a wild difference for, you know what I mean?

49:49And like, there's some shared DNA there that I think, and the fact that they took the, specifically took a coach from that team. If you're going to take a team from any of the Shanahan tree teams, that is the one, if I'm a Philadelphia Eagles, the organization that I want a play caller from for my quarterback. So I like that they did that.

50:06Robert Mays:I think that makes perfect sense. I think there are a lot of different things you're pointing to. The amount of gun we saw from the Packers last year, they were a more gun heavy team than they had been previously under the floor. Even the areas of the field, like they were, I think they led the league in the percentage of outbreaking routes, according to NextGen, of any team in football last year. I think that lends to Jalen Hurts' strengths. And so I think that it is a good marriage, but it's just one of those things where, again, it's a first-time play caller who's been a coach for like two years.

50:30Robert Mays:I want to believe in it because I'm impressed by Sean Mannion. I think that he's a worthwhile consideration in somebody that can kind of turn that thing around. But I'm with you in that one of these guys is not going to be as good as that team wants him to be. And I probably would pick between Mannion and Blau. I have more faith than Doyle. Maybe that's just me being Ben Johnson tree-pilled at this point, but I do believe in Declan Doyle. I just think the quarterback's going to make him look good. Like, even if it's just... All right, your last one. Sorry, I've gone a little bit long. No, it's okay.

51:04Robert Mays:My last one, speaking of Ben Johnson, pick the NFC North for me. Just do it. I can't remember a situation. i was trying to think back to like analogous spots over the last few years maybe the nfc afc north a couple years ago where on august 25th i can sit here and make a real case not even a oh i'll you know i'll i'll cosplay and act like i believe that i can make a real case for all four teams to win the division easily it wouldn't even be hard yeah and that's a nightmare okay so it's easily, it's easy to pick lines because the schedule it, you, when you like, I not only, you know, I was looking at the advanced metrics, I'm like, damn, that's easy.

51:50When you sit down and just look at the games and start reading the opponents, it is very easy to get to 12 plus wins with this team in a hurry. So I'm going to chicken out and say the lions are my pick to win. But if the question is, who's the best team in the NFC North, it's, I mean, I about had a brain aneurysm trying to do this on my NSC North preview. Let's talk it out. I think you can easily do the conditions. Okay. If Micah Parsons comes back and looks at, for the Packers, if Micah Parsons looks like Micah Parsons last year, or him any year, I can get there with Green Bay. if kyler murray is 2024 kyler murray i get there easily with minnesota if chicago god i was gonna say if like caleb williams success rate climbs to like 20th but um if what would it let me ask you you're you follow this team really closely what would be the bears trigger point for you feeling comfortable picking the bears like if you knew it right now

52:59Robert Mays:they hit their ceiling offensively or they like approach their ceiling offensively i i think that you're just no no no i think the defense is you're you're holding on for dear life for them to think be the 18th 20th best defense in the league the entire argument about the defense being better is that the secondary would be healthier it's not it's already not and so i'm worried about that i do think there is a path for them to just be i think there's a path for them to be the best offense in the league. I think that's real. They can do that. And so if they do that, I think that's where the argument starts.

53:33Robert Mays:Or their first or second. They're in that general tier. And then for Detroit, I think if the offensive line works out, this is a top five offense. You can certainly get there. And maybe if on top of that, you would probably need like like a Lynn McNeil or like someone other than Aiden Hutchinson to become like a real difference maker up front. Or, you know, Brian Branch to come back and look like Brian Branch early in the season is a pretty big deal. If Lee McNeil looks like a Lee McNeil did before he got hurt and you have Aiden Hutchinson already and Tylek Williams takes a small step forward, like I think I can get there.

54:13Robert Mays:But the Lions case is mostly offense-based. There's a chance the Lions are the highest scoring offense in the league. Yeah. All three of those teams, the Lions, the Packers, and the Bears, I think a big argument for why it can happen and why they would underweight in division is that they hit something close to their offensive ceiling, which for all of them, I think is like a top three offense. I get sometimes blowback for being a little bit too Packers forward. But on, I think it was Nate's pod, I was like, if Christian Watson and Tucker Craft are healthy for most of the season, this is a top five offense.

54:48I'm like, it's literally been the best offense in the NFL when Christian Watson has been on the field. This is not a crazy premise. So if you could tell me. The line is the concern, right?

54:58Robert Mays:The line is the concern. Are they worse than last year? That's been my thought the entire offseason. I've had to hear it from Derek and Dave about the offensive line on the Packers. I don't know if they're any worse. And they were really good last year before the pass catchers got hurt. So I'm with you on that. And I think that Romeo Dobbs is a nice player. I really like Romeo Dobbs. there is a chance with Reed, Golden, and Watson all healthy that this team has more juice in the pass-catching spots when you throw Kraft in there than it ever has during the LeFleur era. I mean, obviously, Devontae is an entirely different beast, but in the new LeFleur era, in the post-Devontae pass-catching world, I think there is a chance that this is the group that feels the scariest by the end of the year.

55:42Robert Mays:Golden's looked really sick at the preseason. Okay, so talking through all those various contingencies, I find myself still leaning Lions or Packers. Not even separate. The Lions are picked to the win division. We're talking about who's the best team in the division. I feel like... The Packers are more likely to finish with an above average defense because of Micah Parsons to our conversation earlier. So I'll probably go Packers, but it won't be until the end of the year. So I added like 20. I don't want to answer. Don't make me answer. I mean, give me like two weeks. There's no answer. We won't know week one.

56:25We won't know for a while. We won't know how good Green Bay is until November. But it's true. Their best player is not playing for them. So can Jonathan Gannon survive? I've been saying this often. Can he survive those first six-ish weeks or so? What you got, man? Reach deep into your bag. Pull out all that funky Arizona shit. You got to go weird. You get so weird. So I think Detroit, but also Detroit will be better when Brian Branch comes back. So I think like this is one where huge cop out. We won't know until November. So I'll re we'll revisit it then. I think I'll know by November.

57:04Robert Mays:I just, I will refuse to pick the division before the season starts. Oh, just so somebody else can pick it for me. You have to do it. Just pick Detroit because of schedule. I gave you the easy answer. That's probably what I will do. I will take the coward's way out. It's, it's just true. Look at this schedule. It's so easy. That's Robert Mays, who is immersed in his division previews over at the Athletic NFL show. So you guys can check that out wherever you get your paws. I'm sure many of you already do. And thank you so much for joining me, bud. This was really fun. I don't know. I think I feel better about the Texans offense.

57:33You made me feel better about that. You made me feel worse about Bryce. You made me feel better about the, I feel like the Cowboys defense. Both of us are kind of on that chip.

57:45Robert Mays:As long as you were already on it, because I don't want you to pin that on me. All right. That's fine. As long as you were already on it. I feel bad. I feel bad about how much I believe in the Cowboys defense. If I put that onto somebody else, I don't think I could live with that. Barham teleporting into the backfield was my breaking point. We were both picking the Lions, Detroit Lions, to win the NFC North, but with zero conviction about the teams. All right, so I'm going to take a break, come back, and I'm going to talk some fantasy football with fantasy footballers and try to work through some of the other things that are keeping me up at night.

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1:00:03Take 10 minutes to get covered today with life insurance through Ethos. Get your free quote at ethos.com slash sports. That's E-T-H-O-S dot com slash sports. Application times may vary, rates may vary. Trustpilot rating as of June 1st, 2025. All right, we are back for the second half of our football therapy podcast, and I am joined for the first time ever. Extremely exciting. That's probably why I got nervous and bungled my pronunciation at the beginning. By the incredibly popular and successful and excellent Fantasy Footballers podcast. Guys, the three of you, welcome to the show. thank you so much we're thrilled to be here it is uh football time i wasn't sure if you would all answer at the same time or answer at the same time uh the premise of this is actually pretty similar to what i did in the first half with robert mays which is trying to work through like we're obviously very close to the football season and fantasy drafts are happening right now and i wanted to talk about like the names that are just keeping us up at night because we just can't decide right like and we did that we talked about some of the football players and teams and whatnot in their first half um i actually haven't had either of my drafts so i'm excited to do this with you guys i have the espn draft uh next week i have pick one one which i feel i've never had pick one one oh congrats this is the best yeah it really is that's how i feel jameer gives welcome to my family you got it right i just don't have to think about it it's so great but after that obviously it gets a little bit more stressful so um i asked each of you guys to come up with a name that like Like you individually are just like sweating.

1:01:39You don't know. You don't know how to feel. You gave me some awesome names. Some of the names you gave me are ones that I am also sweating. So I'm excited to talk about them. I'll go first with one of mine and then I'll just prompt you guys to give me yours. I'm going to start at the quarterback position here. I actually had two quarterbacks in mind. And then I decided I just can't do Jane Daniels. So we're not even going to do that because I saw a post today from Nikki Jabavala. who covers the commanders that says this is like the worst commanders offensive line she's ever seen. And I was like, I'm good.

1:02:12Yeah, not great. The name that I do want to talk to you about is the one that I feel a little bit more conflicted about in terms of a premium pick for a quarterback. And that is one Jalen hurts. Jalen hurts drafters last year, as you guys know all too well, got pretty burned because he went so high and finished ninth quarterbacks, career lows and rushing yards, rushing first downs, rushing touchdowns. if you take back out quarterback sneaks he had 67 rushing attempts which is a career low and he's in an entirely new offense and so I I think for me a lot of my hesitation here is like not knowing how to feel about this new Eagles offense because it was so dismal last year and it's going to be so different so Jason why don't we start with you how do you feel about Jalen Hurts as a premium quarterback right because obviously if it's late great yeah whatever I would say I I would say I'm more in on Hertz than out.

1:03:05I think Petulo was not my favorite, and I'm a big Sean Mannion fan. You look at the Tush perch isn't going away, and he's usually been up in the 12, 13, 15 rushing touchdowns because of that. He had eight rushing touchdowns last year. And so while I don't think he is going to be the quarterback one overall, he's the cheapest he has ever been in his entire post-his breakout career. you've never been able to get him where he's going in a draft right now you can let him fall to you often usually on average in the sixth round and that's that's a value for someone who can easily replicate 15 rushing touchdowns um and i also i believe in sean manion i i think that the system will be better it hurts to lose aj brown but they added you know makai lemon i think that that is uh don tavian wicks good sir yeah i and and davante smith to me is fully capable of stepping up as a wider street one so i find myself more in than out on hurts this year yeah i mean he he just makes me nervous but for all the reasons that you stated at the top it's just um you've always had the rushing baseline at a level where he could kind of ebb and flow from a passer perspective So if he does what you, you know, if he repeats and they keep the rushing attempts lower and in the yardages and up in the 500 to 800 range, I'm more nervous about that.

1:04:33But, you know, the price in fantasy drafts at least right now is accommodating that. Yeah, I agree. It's the price that makes him interesting. There almost certainly will be, there's going to be a late round guy or two that will make the jump and they'll be in the top six at the end of the year and will be like, oh, should have seen that one happening. But it's in the game of probability. A quarterback who does what Jalen Hurts does, he's most likely going to end up being very productive for fantasy football. All right, I'm going to put you all on the spot. and you don't just one word answers Dak or Hertz because I I think it's a really interesting debate right because the Cowboys offense is going to be so sick but then hurts obviously the rushing and for all the reasons so Dak or Hertz if you were choosing between the two of them who would you take Dak Dak Dak yeah all right dang okay we're very we're a very pro uh Dak show of you gotta be careful saying that one the uh like he just he doesn't get respect or he doesn't get respect from nfl fans he doesn't get respect from fantasy football fans he literally if he is healthy he's a he's a quarterback one historically he as long as he plays he's awesome we like bad defenses oh yeah dallas whether you know caleb downs maybe it gets better but not to the philly level so you want to see the point accumulation george and cd is just it's that's disgusting yeah right and like the answer to like george or cd might just be deck right um okay uh andy you go first give us your guy yeah i i think marvin harrison is one of the most confusing players possible yeah because from a productivity standpoint he somehow turned you know two decent not great years into an apology tour with the expectations with the draft capital with his famous father and so you look at the situation in Arizona I like LaFleur coming in I like the fact that when Brissette was the quarterback yeah Trey McBride is like all worldly Marvin Harrison while he was on the field with Wilson and McBride and Brissette had the highest target share of everybody so I've got these reasons to believe that if we can just get one season where you can string some games together You talk about a bad defense.

1:06:58Arizona has done nothing to improve upon being terrible. Really anything. No, it's just terrible everywhere. Yeah, we're in Arizona. So we hate what they do to our lives. Souls, yeah, our entire history. But ultimately, it's like this team should be passing the ball a ton, coming back a ton. Everything in camp has been positive. So I find myself so like you don't want to get to year three and still wonder if a guy is elite. But you have to wonder about Marv. I just find him to be the most like, like he's not even expensive in fantasy drafts. To see his name as far back as it is, and you're still like, I'm just confused.

1:07:39Like, do I, can I believe? I don't know. I still believe in his talent as a player. And I think LeFleur is going to use him in ways maybe where he can be a little bit more productive. I mean, seeing him on that crosser and the touchdown with Brissette in free season, I was like, oh, you're pulling me back. You're pulling me back. You're tantalizing. The things that make me nervous. So a few years ago on my dynasty team, I picked a little-known tight end named Trey McBride, and some are saying it's the greatest move ever made in the history of my dynasty league. Basically, Howie Roseman, you know, when it comes to, I took Fanna Jr.

1:08:13last year too. So that makes me nervous. The other thing that makes me nervous, guys, and the rest of you can tell me, is Michael Wilson, weeks 9 through 18, was third in receiving yards per game? I kind of think he's one of the more slept on like underrated receivers in the NFL and I actually do worry between the two of them who's going to be the number one in terms of the receivers it's hard to not look at the film and say that Michael Wilson was a better on the field receiver than Harrison was last year route running you know high pointing the ball the drops the hands yeah I mean so that I mean that's a fair point what do you guys think yeah I I I believe that he might be the better wide receiver.

1:08:52I don't believe that he will be the wide receiver one in targets. They're going to work Marv in. And I think what, what happened in the pick, redeem the pick. Yeah. If you look at the games where, where Michael Wilson was great, it was really without Marv even later in the season when Marv came back after Michael Wilson's breakout, it went back to Marv as the primary target because it was the role in the offense. And I think the role is primary going to be Marv. Uh, it's just probably nice for the Cardinals to have Michael Wilson but he doesn't scare me too much about Marv Marv is the only one that scares me about Marv like are you actually good enough yeah Mike who's your first pick here so I want to talk about Justin Jefferson because it turns out he's not invincible to bad quarterback play the he's still like the fantasy drafters are we're we're going right back in we're going you know head in the sand first round Justin Jefferson Kyler Murray is going to fix everything well we can tell you in Arizona oh boy we didn't want Kyler Murray here like it was this local angle it was so bizarre to me of Kyler Murray is locally not really uh supported not cared for we were done with it because of watching him play football nationally people didn't really like Kyler Murray Kyler Murray gets caught oh my god we can get Kyler Murray like what in the world is that all about how do you go from nationally a national disgrace to holy crap we could get Kyler Murray on the Minnesota Vikings and everything will be fixed now I very much believe in Kevin O 'Connell JJ McCarthy is honestly the the only quarterback we've ever seen play for Kevin O 'Connell that did not give us good fantasy football stats uh so I do think that O 'Connell is a great coach and might be able to fix it but it's with your first round pick a player that was sub 10 points a game last year for fantasy football and it may be more of the same for him like that's a very scary proposition it's not a question of Jefferson's talent he's still you want to argue he's the best wide receiver in football?

1:11:13Okay. I would never stop anyone from doing that. But you need a quarterback who can actually get him the ball. You know, we had more stuff of like Kyler Murray admitting to O 'Connell's like, I can't see over the offensive line. We're like, oh boy. Here we go again. So I'm freaked out of the idea of spending my first on Jefferson. First of all, I'll defend the national media here. You guys ever had a friend who dated or was married to a woman who sucks so much that the next woman everyone like overdid it and they're like I think there's a little bit of that going on um that's a good comp like just a stat that I posted about Jefferson um JJ McCarthy had a 28 off target rate throwing to Jefferson which was the second highest of any quarterback throwing to any receiver in the NFL if Kyler can just bring that down just a little bit yeah he can he can he will my hesitation you're gonna bet your first rounder that he can no i think you're you're it's a good pick for you for the because i i would be nervous about the value i think with kyler and you guys again you saw this firsthand i'm not sure the deep ball is going to come back right like it was so absent and so off target uh his last few years in arizona and that to me does cap to some degree the production you're going to get out of jefferson yeah it's a little nerve-wracking it's i mean we have you know you can go look at deandre hopkins in 2015 was 1500 yards it plummets to 950 yards and at that time i remember playing fantasy football going oh man i guess that was really fun with hopkins because now it's it's over yeah and then of course they get more they get better quarterback play and hopkins bounces back to being one of the all-time great wide receivers so it's not that it can't happen it's just betting your first round pick when guys right after Jefferson you feel very confident that they're going to be awesome for fantasy who's right after him right now uh ADP well I like I mean Kenneth Walker I mean if you want me to start talking about Kenneth Walker I don't think we I love I want all of the Kenneth Walker all right speaking of the chiefs Jason you you have a chief that I do want to I really want to talk about yeah it makes sense that you would want to talk about this player because you said you're drafting first which means you know you're at that two three turn where rashi rice is going to need to be thought about um this is a player with obvious question marks right you got off the field issues it looks like the suspension is not going to have so okay whatever he was already suspended but he's also not looked great in the film right now coming out of the knee injury in jail it's like is he back to being able to be a dominant force on the field we don't know but on the other side he was never like he's not a burner he wasn't you know winning 30 yards down the field what he was doing was just being in the right place at the right time for Patrick Mahomes who now is not going to scramble as much coming off of his knee injury I think what Rushy Rice does well he should be able to do well and you look at it on a per game basis it's crazy I mean he was 15 and a half fantasy points per game in half PPR last year and then for context Amon Ross St.

1:14:33Brown was 15.6 he was the wide receiver five in points per game so if you're telling me you start with Gibbs and you can get someone who can realistically be the wide receiver five that's so tantalizing but also do you really want to have Ross on your team and You know, on him as your wide receiver one. So whenever I'm in a draft at that area, I look at his name for too long. And it's just like, I don't know. I don't know if I'm trusted or not. I think that's cool. Yeah, just crazy stat. I just was, when you threw this out, I remember his points, his per game stats were crazy, right? Because he missed a chunk of the season.

1:15:11So when Rashid Rice played last year? He was in targets per route run. he was behind only Puka Nakua and Jackson Smith and Jigba that is how often Patrick Mahomes went to him which is 32 which is crazy he was they didn't have anyone guys they didn't have anyone so how like what is other than the offense maybe being a little bit more run yeah like it really does seem like it should work and and Kenneth Walker should help him I mean you're now you got to watch out for the run game and I know that Cyrus Allen the rookie has had some nice publicity, but Cyrus Allen is not coming in as a late-rounded rookie usurping the number one wide receiver role.

1:15:52So it should work. It really should work. A concern I have is he, while you're not saying, oh, he just blows the doors off like combine testing, he's not a refined prototypical wide receiver. He's not going to be Keenan Allen out there where it's like, oh, he's lost three steps. It doesn't matter because his routes, he's such a tactician out there. He has to have athleticism in terms of yards after the catch to make any kind of noise. So if Rice has lost a step, I think it's a huge problem. Yeah, a big real football problem for the Kansas City Chiefs. I think I'm still comfortable with him because of the volume piece of it.

1:16:33Okay, my second pick here in the corner here. This isn't just about the injury. but Ashton Gentry I just yeah so you know first of all the injury contrary to the prayer circle he seems to be surviving but it's um uh I don't even know if it's high or low it seems like maybe we'll call it a mid ankle injury um but we don't so we don't know exactly how long to be out so that's obviously a factor but I want to talk about the other factors here one of which is I don't understand why everyone's subtly comfortable with this Raiders offensive line I know that they signed Linderbaum and brought and Colton Miller will be healthy but the rest of it is like kind of the same and it was the worst offensive line in football the right side of it like I DJ glaze we're doing that again and then the other thing and you guys need to tell me if this is just way too much recency bias Mike Washington looked nice so I'm not I am not afraid of Mike Washington at all with Gentile and I do think that the offensive line is improved going from Pete Carroll and sons managing that offensive line too yeah and and clint kubiak coming in i was pretty excited about him but where he's going to drafts is like there there are there are a handful of running backs i feel so much more confident in going behind him i'm big on omarion hampton kenneth walker seems you know why not why not go with good offenses chase brown middle of the second round as opposed to taking someone you don't expect a ton of points um he's currently maybe missing week one And, you know, teams, running backs on teams that win fewer than seven and a half games, they just don't usually turn out well.

1:18:11It's a tough bet when you don't have a winning team. And they're going to go through, likely, a quarterback transition at some point during the course of the year. And that throws some more variables into the mix. I mean, I actually expected Jinty's draft price to be lower than what it is. So I think that it's kind of moved to the point where, like, in the offseason, at the very beginning, I was like, oh, maybe he's a really good target. It's just too high for me. Ken Walker is behind him. So I agree. I think it's a little bit nerve-wracking, and it's a tough bet. Him and A-Chan, right? Like A-Chan and the Miami offense.

1:18:47I think A-Chan is an otherworldly talent. But when a bad team says we're going to run the ball a bunch, I mean, I can go back to like Hugh Jackson and the Cleveland Browns. Isaiah Crowell long ago going, oh, we're just going to run him into the ground. And then when it's 27-3 at halftime, you don't get to do it. I think focusing on the transition from Kirk Cousins to Mendoza, you have to focus on that a bit more. Teams with rookie quarterbacks, they just don't score as much as other teams. This is statistical truth. Even great running backs, when they have a rookie quarterback, they tend to have you see a dip in production and that will happen at the time you want your fantasy football team to be the strongest that it could possibly be when you're getting into making your playoff run and then all of a sudden you're like oh crap week 12 here comes Mendoza yeah what does that do and you're gonna have to then then you have then you're in week 12 going do I keep riding out with Ashton Gentry if maybe he's been great to that point it you just the whole thing is is terrifying to me the receiving group they're gonna face so many stacked boxes and single high coverage because who's really scaring you on the perimeter all right good i you know what i don't feel conflicted anymore i'm out i'm out and the and the injury now yes injury now right on top of that need parts fast o'reilly auto parts as fast need them now we've got now no matter what you need we have thousands of professional parts people doing their part to make sure you have it.

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1:20:55Robert Mays:The inside story of the biggest scandal in modern baseball. He was absolutely bananas the amount of bets he was making. I've never seen anything like it. From 30 for 30 podcasts, this is the betrayal of Shohei Otani. Presented by Gusto. New episodes available now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Buster Olney here for La Quinta by Wyndham. When work takes you on the road during football season, it's nice to have a place where you can unwind after the day's done. At La Quinta by Wyndham, spacious suites give you room to spread out, catch the game, kick back and relax before another day on the job.

1:21:33Because after a long day, comfort makes all the difference. Plus earn Wyndham Rewards points with every qualified stay. Tonight La Quinta, tomorrow you shine. Book your next trip at laquinta.com. Terms and conditions apply okay let's let's go around the horn again andy your second pick yeah i we haven't actually talked about this guy a bunch on the show but i thought it'd be good to talk about here is just like who is justin herbert like what what does he represent for fantasy football um you know last year he had a great week he asked himself this question a lot too he might ask himself who are the chargers right we always have we always have great expectations for the team and we also have plenty of narratives and plenty of excuses for herbert over the years from his own injuries to offensive line, you know, deterioration.

1:22:19And so, you know, on paper, I think they're favored to win the division. You've got Mike McDaniel coming in, should bring his scheme and ideas. You've got great pass catchers in McConkie and you've got Quentin Johnston and Trey Harris coming along and Omari and Hampton's healthy. So on the surface, you're like, I see all the puzzle pieces working together, but I haven't seen a lot of fantasy managers kind of like embrace Herbert as part of that equation. As going to be a beneficiary of that. I think they should. So my take is, first of all, the offensive line is already deteriorating again. Yeah, we're doing it again.

1:22:54Have we considered the possibility it's just a haunted franchise? I think that's the most likely. It feels that way, it really does. They're near the substation too, right? Too close. I mean, whatever they've got might be worse. But here's the thing. I think from a fantasy perspective, I think value to me, it's fine. Like, I would not. So he's kind of what? he's probably like qb 10 to 12 ish very late yeah yeah so like if we're comparing him to let's talk about comps right would you rather have herbert or trevor lawrence who's in another offense that i'm really excited about like between the two lawrence yeah i'd take lawrence and lawrence is going behind him in uh average draft position right next to him is dac and and that's where i give me dac for sure i want the bad defense the uh the point for for herbert i would say is Mike McDaniel managed to convince I know the world that Tua was a good quarterback to the point of Tua got the bag of money led the NFL in passing yards and it's like how okay I know he's he's had some health problems but it's like how do you go from Tua being a true franchise quarterback making bajillions of dollars to now like he's literally he's playing himself out of a job in atlanta just lost a quarterback competition when the other quarterback didn't play that's exactly what we're saying yeah it's like so that would be that would be like a check mark of if anyone can turn it around for herbert it would be mike mcdaniel i like him less than dac lauren's someone i'm really high on the jags offense this year but i might go herbert there all right mike who's yours second one so i want to talk about josh Jacobs running back of the Green Bay Packers who I mean we just had more news break about this has been an off-season situation of Josh Jacobs is facing allegations that are pretty disgusting and gross and to this point nothing has happened and like the the case kind of went silence and now it things are being brought back up of well the team is even talking out loud of like yeah we we've made some preparations just in case Josh Jacobs gets suspended.

1:25:07That's just one side of the story. Then the other one is Josh Jacobs was scoring so many touchdowns. He was awesome for fantasy football over the first half of the year. But the truth is he's older. We're at 28 and a half. So for most running backs, he is on the running back age cliff of when things really start to fall apart. And we know that when running backs, when it falls apart, it's done. Like, there's not a, I age gracefully. When it's done, it's done. It's a cruel part of the NFL. And he was not that efficient last year. And I'm not sure that the Green Bay Packers are going to want to have the whole entire season, the identity of the team, continue to be Josh Jacobs the way it was last year.

1:25:54I think it shifts more onto the back of Jordan Love, who I like as a quarterback. and on top of that their third rounder from a couple years ago is maybe finally healthy we'll see if Marshawn Lloyd can stick it out but I believe in the talent of Marshawn Lloyd that he can come in and take more work even if Jacobs is healthy and not suspended but he just he freaks me out a bit where he's going in drafts it's tough because he was he was truly awesome for fantasy to start before and to start it was like the majority of the season he got injured in week 11 and to that point he was the running back 5.

1:26:31He was on pace for like 20 rushing touchdowns and was awesome so it's really tough you look at where he is in a draft and he's a perfect one for this where it's like I need therapy I don't know. I'm totally fine letting him go but I can see how it's like oh that was so dumb Who are the backs being taken around him? So right around Josh Jacobs afterwards what I'm seeing right around it would be Kyron Jeremy I love Brees Hall, Javante. Yeah, all of those backs I would take over Jacobs. For sure. Yeah, they are carrying the legal risk, so that is definitely... There's that. But also, like, the Packers' offense, and from a fantasy perspective, is always tricky for me for backs because I think they run the ball way too much and they're inefficient at it.

1:27:18And this Packers' offensive line has major question marks, but they also run the ball way too much. And Jordan Love's really good, so you're in position to score. You're talking about the touchdowns, right? So like you kind of like the football perspective, you don't love it. Fantasy, there's definitely potential there. But I think what you said about Lloyd is like, I have really liked what I've seen from him in the off season, the preseason. And I do think everything going on with Josh Jacobs, this feels like a stay away from me. Yeah. All right, Jason. All right. My last guy I need therapy for is Travion Henderson.

1:27:54Perfect one. I think you do. I, yeah, I mean, I really do. Andy and I, we don't, we don't get in fights as people. We have been fighting about Trevo versus, uh, Ramondre Stevenson. And it's so tough because you can't accident your way to 1100 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie, especially when you really didn't get to play for the first couple of weeks. This is a high drafted player who is electric who was he has so much value to him he is a I can't even say he's a better running back than a Ramondre Stevenson when you factor in uh past protection and veteran knowledge and all of that but as an athlete as an explosive piece to an office of him could be the ceiling is so astronomically high and I and then all the reports are coming out about how it's definitely Ramondre's role and Travo's still having a hard time with pass protection, which I don't get.

1:28:56He was such a good pass protector in college. And all of a sudden it was weird. Yeah. Now it's like now that's his liability. Like what? What? Yeah. I find myself being in on Travion Henderson because I do believe his talent will win out. I think that Vrabel will not be able to keep him on the sideline through the course of an entire season. And he will play his way into he's more of the future of the team they spent a high pick um you know but i i say that through like a lens where i kind of know i'm lying and wrong no no no of all the ones we've done this is the hardest i think so i'm so talented but he's not gonna get the job i'll tell you what you guys can so i think the patriots run games be way better this year i like i think they didn't face that many light boxes last year now people are gonna afraid of those receivers aj brown i think they're going to be more balanced as a result the question for me is i like i'm so divided because of the becks and particularly so just to give you like a nerd stat here i like looking at running backs rushing yards over expected it's an ngs stat which is like how responsible is the back for the production the number one running back in rushing yards over expected for carry last year was ramond ray stevenson he was so efficient.

1:30:15He wasn't explosive at all, but I feel like he is too efficient for them to take, in addition to the pass pro stuff you alluded to, to take him off the field, and that scares me off of Henderson, even though he's the more explosive and exciting player. And the playoffs. I mean, the playoffs said who you trusted, and it's just, this is the fantasy dichotomy of sexy, like big play, potential guy that you just know what the numbers would be if he had every snap. Like certain players like you give remander every snap he's probably finishing as the rb 16 or 20 you know if you give travion every snap you know where the numbers are running back six but i the vision concerns me the interior running concerns me with travion henderson which is you know it's been a liability since the collegiate days he is explosive he can catch the ball i don't know what's going on with the pass protection but right now with vrabel i just feel like vrabel knows what he has in remandre and so it's like a regrettable situation where you get the boring dude instead of the exciting dude but the boring dude does a bunch of stuff pretty well i like to believe that if travion henderson had all the work in the super bowl they would have won and the punishment is that you lost the super there you go see kenneth walker got all the run he did because of sharpened and they won the super the the bowl case or the like try to tell yourself this story that i can come up with at the top of my head is like jameer gibbs as a rookie high i mean drafted even higher in the nfl draft and then over those first it was like five or six weeks he wasn't getting the work and it was so frustrating for fantasy football like what why do we keep putting david montgomery he's fine but he he's not doing for your team what jameer gibbs could be doing and then uh it brings me back to Austin Eckler, like broke down the situation.

1:32:05And he's talking about, here's all these small things that Jameer Gibbs isn't doing because he's new. Yeah. Because he's a rookie. He doesn't like there's, we like to imagine that moving from college running back to professional running back is you just show up and you're ready to do it. Totally. It's probably harder. I think people don't understand how much coaches when it comes to the run game and running backs care about these little things. and not just pass protection, but all of the things that veteran backs do well. I was really taken by, I don't know if you guys saw a quote from Sean Payton where he was talking about Jonah Coleman.

1:32:42You could just tell he loves him. And Coleman, I'm a Huskies fan, I thought would come into the league and actually be a lot more pro-ready, even though he's not super exciting. He is actually kind of one of my favorite sleepers, to be honest. Yeah, we love Coleman. He was our number two back. But listen to Payton talk about him and you'll love him more. And yeah, this is the tricky thing with these choices. I still want a piece of this Patriots run game. I just don't want to pay a lot for either of these backs. That's a fair point. In fantasy football, running back more than wide receivers, your coach better like you.

1:33:16Yeah. Because generally, you just have one on the field at a time. It's not like, oh, we got three wide receivers. My guy could end up with the target. With a running back, if the coach takes him out the field, I have a 0.0 % chance of scoring points on that point. Ramondre fumbles. So there's that. I know. Yeah, he does. Yeah. All right. Well, I feel like I've made choices about all of these things. I don't know if you guys feel a little bit better maybe after these discussions. I'm sure everybody listening to this knows where they can find your guys' show, but can you let them know? Yeah. I mean, this is go time.

1:33:53So thefantasyfootballers.com and season kicking off. We're stoked. we got all of our rankings and stuff up there so i appreciate you yeah we do five shows a week from now until the end of the the nfl season so if you want to have a good time and get some good advice check us out awesome um yeah everybody if you don't listen already you should go check it out guys have built something really incredible there i will be listening even though i already know i'm taking jameer gibbs and feel great about that uh thank you thank you so much ozzy like what an emotional and mental load off of my back. Yes.

1:34:24No decision. I'm going to think about it. Thank you, as always, to everyone at Omaha Productions who makes this show. Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Taschen. And I will be back next week as we get closer and closer to the football season.