Bake, Seattle and Roll: A Week Five Preview

30:14And when Hurts threw the ball, it was like man beaters to A.J. Brown. And it's just not, you know, they were never finding ways to create leverage or create space for their receivers. They were not moving them around. It was just very static. so this to me is the Broncos defense plays a ton of man they blitz a lot they man blitz a lot Vance Joseph's not a dummy he's not gonna do that in this I really don't think he's gonna do that in this game um in fact in the last game actually against the Bengals he didn't do that either because he was like yeah they got Jamar Chase let's just not right let's just put this rookie this quarterback in hell and they did so I to me this is like a big like Kevin Petulo like come on man um one thing i was mentioning i went on i do this eagles show every two weeks and one thing i said was i've been puzzled by the absence of rpos against some coverage which used to be the eagles like okay well you're gonna rpo it's cool we're gonna put a defender in conflict not something that they've been going to a lot this year for some reason i think that's a potential answer i'd love to see them actually move their receivers which they do not do um before the snap, but this is it.

31:22You know, like you can't keep putting together these, like your two players are too talented for the game plans to be this vanilla. There's an interesting split in the Seagulls offense. If you're looking at bunch formations versus non-bunch formations and their bunch rate, so it's about 80 plays out of a total of, oh, I don't know, two, four, so about 25 % bunch rate, right? as far as EPA per play when they're bunched uh they're 27th they're fourth when they're not bunched as in when they're spreading people out like they are one of the best offenses by EPA per play so I would love to see them just do that and commit to that like we're going to spread people out because what that does is it tends to create those more manageable one-on-ones with AJ Brown um you know oftentimes when they spread out that's when you start to see a little bit more quarters against them.

32:13It would help the running too, by the way. They're so bad at running right now. Those condensed, it's just like, no, the blocks aren't working. Goddard's not working. They've got to get Saquon a spatial advantage. Sorry to interrupt you, but that's something. No, but you're 100 % correct. Saquon, I want to preface this by saying, he's awesome. He's amazing. He is very much a get nothing, get nothing, get nothing, get everything type of running back. You need to manufacture space to give him room to get everything, right? If you're trying to just bang away inside the tackles from all these condensed looks like you're the Rams and you got Kyron Williams, you know, the human battering ram, it's not going to go as well.

32:54Because from an efficiency standpoint, like, yes, his e-paper play is super high and his yards per carry looks great. But if you're looking at, like, success rates, like how, what percentage of plays... Dude, even his e-paper play isn't high right now. He's because he's not getting any explosives. And the offensive line is clearly banged up. but like no one's blocking well right now, which is no one's blocking. Well, it's not nobody, but like for the most part, yes, they need to adjust. I love the way you put that. They need to adjust their passing game, spread things out to help the run game right now, because what they're doing is not working at all.

33:25People keep talking about the AJ Brown post and how he's upset. And I'm like, dude, we got bigger problems right now than, than AJ Brown. Like there's like fundamental core things in this offense that are wildly inconsistent. and yes they had a big second half against the rams but like there's more to it than just that yes and the rams corners are not good the browns corners are very good i mean i you know riley moss they'll be there's they have mismatches on him for sure but i'm just saying like this is not that um one thing i think they can do one more thing i want to just about the eagles offense is to me this is a big sake one in the passing game offense the browns defense broncos defense probably uh rocks they still can't defend passes to linebackers 30 for second probably dead last in epa per play the colts destroyed them in the passing game with jonathan taylor so even if saquon isn't as explosive as a rusher in this game i think there will be opportunities for him to attack the second level of this defense i also have a random note just because you're a nerd like me so you you'll you'll appreciate this i had noticed uh when it comes to broncos defense versus equals offense i had noticed that like baron browning is unreasonably good at timing snap counts whether it's silent counts uh at home or like traditional cadences on the road and so i i texted my buddy bill smith uh who runs ngs and i was like do you guys track a metric for like how like tracking the first step of an edge rusher uh 0.7 seconds is baron browning's average get off they all are so good at time i swear to god i think the broncos defense is offside like half the time and they're not this is i'm not that's just how like it's unbelievable how quick they are off of and i think there's an opportunity there for for the eagles because they're at home they're not going to be in silent count ideally like you might be able to catch them with some free plays here and they're going to need it.

35:25What do you got on the Broncos?

35:30Whew. The Eagles are not the only team with a frustrating offense to watch, in my opinion. I do think Denver's problems are more fixable. And I say that after they obviously had a very convincing win on Monday. Against the Bengals. But if you're looking at Bo Nix against man coverage, which the Eagles are weirdly have been a very like cover one centric defense this year which is not normal for Vic Fangio but he's like I got guys that can cover I'm just gonna let them cover 31 percent of all their snaps are cover one which doesn't sound like a lot by NFL standards that's a lot by Fangio standards that is like the most I've ever seen from him and if you're looking at Bo Nix against cover one uh 56.3 percent completion percentage 5.3 yards per attempt one touchdown no picks.

36:20Average depth of target, 5.2 yards. I want to see him stretch the field against these one-on-ones. They might not even complete them all. You got to try. You got to loosen these guys up or else you got no shot. We know he can do it. He's got an arm. He's got some threats that truly do have deep speed, but don't be afraid to test Quinion Mitchell. Even if it doesn't work, you got to try or else they're just going to stay and cover one all day and you're going to lose anyway. I feel like with every team against the Eagles, I might ask the same question, which is do they have the pass catchers to attack cornerback too?

36:58And I don't know if Denver does, right? And Tampa didn't without Mike Evans. The Rams did, but I don't know. I do, like Franklin and Mims, you have some speed there, but if Mitchell takes Sutton, which we assume will be the case here, it's tough. it's tough sledding um you just gotta hit one yeah you gotta hit one can we take a moment to talk about how unbelievable quinion mitchell and cooper dejean have been this year best cornerback doing the league right uh pretty easily in the it's up there in the um three in the the the bucks game baker had a tight window throw rate of 35 that's the highest of any quarterback this season felt like every single pass he threw was contested in that game there They're so good.

37:48That's why he's playing so much man. Yes, to your point. And Quinion, too, he's been tested. He went up against Devontae. Buka is no slouch. He is going up against the best of the best. Yeah, I mean, this is one of the best cornerback drafts of all time. I feel like it's crazy. I don't feel like that's crazy. People keep bringing up trade options for the Eagles of like, they got to go get a CB2 and finish this thing off. and while yes, I agree, because they still do need a second outside corner, I should say, or I guess it would be CB3 for them. Yeah. What team is trading a starting corner? Yeah.

38:30Right now? They just got to figure it out. They're bringing up Reek Wolin, and I'm like, so Seattle can be in this. Oh, Vic Fangio loves corners who can't tackle. He famously enjoys that on his team. Come on. Yeah, they'll be fine. I think they just got to figure it out. with the three guys that they have. And, you know, Ringo wasn't really, like, put through the ringer in this last game. But we'll see. I got Philly in this one because of that side of the ball. I just think I am still skeptical of this passing offense. But I just, I know you're, you know, Bo's got to hit one. But, like, I'm skeptical.

39:06I just think this Eagles defense is playing really good football right now. I'll go Eagles as well. And, honestly, for a reason we didn't even bring up, the special teams matchup here. is not close. I think the Eagles special teams unit is way better than the Broncos right now.

39:25The resistance for the Broncos to using the knuckleball kick that is sweeping the league that everybody else has been trying and some teams have had incredible success, including against Philly. The Broncos aren't really trying it at all. And I think as of last week, they were the second worst average starting field position on defense after kickoffs. That's a mouthful. But like basically every time they kick the ball off because they're not using any of these knuckle kicks or dirty kicks, you know, they're giving up these. They're just making the returns more manageable. And so their defense has to carry an extra 10 to 15 yards of burden as far as field position because their special teams unit is not helping them out.

40:05I I don't like that matchup for them. So I'll go the Eagles as well beyond everything else we talked about, just because the hidden yardage for special teams is going to be way in their favor. Such a nerdy. You're the only show I can talk about. The snuggle ball thing. I know I should, but it is a really big deal. It's funny. I was asked about like, oh, you hate, we hate. I forgot what shows on people were like, somebody was complaining about the new kickoff and like, you know, how, if you F it up, you get to start at the 40 yard line. You know what I mean? Like the, if you, if you mess it up, I was like, what?

40:42I'm sorry. if you don't practice enough to not mess that up, you deserve to be punished. Like it's not that hard to avoid doing. All right. The thing about the Broncos, I think, you know, they did finally start running the ball well last week with the heavy Bengals caveat, but it felt like instead of like rotating the backs, Peyton went more like, okay, this is Dobbins drive. And I think that worked. I'm curious to see if that continues against an English defense that is, has some vulnerabilities against the run. I do think so. They might be able to run the ball on them. Okay. So Dolphins Panthers is just you.

41:14Let's do that one before the break. What's your key here? I'm fascinated to see what this offense looks like without the gravitational pull of Tyreek Hill. Right. He has such an incredible effect on defenses just by existing. He won't be on the field anymore, obviously. You know, they've run the ball really well. I want to give them credit for that. But as far as like pass protection, as well as Tua just not turning it over, that's been their main issues this year. And I don't think any of their jobs will be easier without Tyreek on the field. So that's going to be a massive adjustment. I don't know how they're going to handle it.

41:55You know, some teams react super well to their number one going down and they spread the ball out and they have a lot of success like Dallas. But at the same time, Tua is not Dak. Yeah. So, again, it could go pretty south here. Luckily for them, Carolina has the worst pass rush in the league. Again, their 30-second in pressure rate, their 30-second in sack percentage, their 30-second in pressure to sack percentage. Like, two is going to have time. So this could be a Darren Waller, Jalen Waddell, you know, each getting a bunch of catches here. Waller, the Panthers, is the worst in the paper play league-wide versus tight ends.

42:35I just gotta say, because I feel like I kind of breezed over this. He looked pretty damn good. Monday night. He's moving out there. And he's still Darren Waller. He's like a big receiver. Like, I think, um, uh, was it in this game or was it Fowler who was like, well, he's a tight end in name only. I mean, no, no, it was actually, um, Troy talking about, or Joe Buck talking about Mike Yosicki in the Bengals game. But I was like, Tyno. I was like, we should start calling them Tynos. like like I didn't name all right that's amazing I'm gonna start using that Darren Waller is a Tyno and that's fine because hey he might be their second best receiver he is the same best receiver right now um on the flip side like this Dolphins defense cannot stop the run they're bad at a lot of things and I actually think Carolina's been such a hard team to watch they've been so up and down offensively um this to me will be an up for them so I'm actually going to take the Panthers in this one, I think that Panthers offense could actually have a bounce back game after being pretty humiliated last week.

43:38I think I'll take the Panthers as well. I really don't feel good about it just because, again, their pass rush has been so bad. I know. But at the same time, overall as a team, again, talking about special teams, Fitzgerald, their kicker has been one of the best as far as making offenses go the long way. Here's a fun stat for you. As far as with the kickoff last year, pinning offenses inside their own 10-yard line on the kickoff, the most any team had done that last year was twice. Fitzgerald's averaging doing that once a game. So he's incredible as far as doing that and, again, helping out his very beleaguered defense with field position.

44:21It's a big reason why they hung 30 on Atlanta is because they made Atlanta just constantly drive the length of the field. and Michael Penix gave it up a couple times. So the more plays an offense runs or has to run, the more exposed they are to mistakes, and Tua will make mistakes. So from that standpoint, I think that gives them a slight edge. But again, I don't feel amazing about picking Carolina, and I could still very easily see Miami just running them out of the building. All right, let's take a quick break, come back and talk about a game I've been really trying to put off talking about.

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46:04No, just him. Now take Duracell. Is there any other battery with power boost ingredients inside? No, just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different. And Messi only trusts Duracell. Alright, we're back. That game is Texans Ravens. So the reason I've been trying to put it off is we have no idea who's playing quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens. Jonathan Alexander. I just saw this posted. D 'Amico Ryan said they are preparing as if Lamar Jackson is playing. That means nothing, but it makes it very hard to talk about this game, especially because, you know, I mean, Lamar just brutalized the Texans last year.

46:49And this Texans defense is awesome. They're ferocious. They get after it. but they have had a vulnerability against mobile quarterbacks. Some of that is structural, right? They play so much man coverage and quarters. And it's not just Lamar, although Lamar absolutely cooked them. And it was, it was a blood, bloodbath. So I think the way I want to talk about this is as if Lamar is playing Brett, because if he's not like, what's there to talk about? I mean, what do you think about that? Just really quickly, like Cooper, Cooper rush, Texas defense. well even here's the thing it's kind of yes and with this because either the texans pass rush is going to tee off because cooper rush can't get away of sack can't get away from sacks or the texans pass rush is going to tee off because lamar's injured and probably can't get away from sacks like he normally does so either way like this is a will anderson daniel hunter type of game like i would just get after it early and often i would send pressures to occupy the guards to make sure you can have those one-on-ones and like do it early like see if he can move again assuming he's playing if he can't move that completely changes the rest of the game because then you know what you're dealing with here if he just looks like Lamar then then you have to change it I'm looking at the Ravens injury report and trying to figure out who's actually playing because here's everybody who didn't play or got injured versus Kansas City Lamar obviously ronnie stanley this was kind of ignored um on offense ricard still out defensively and this is where of course it is horrifying madame wiki out for the season washington got hurt van noy was out that game travis jones uh roquan smith got injured during the game marlon humphrey injured during the game nate wiggins injured during the game who's left there were guys out there i've never heard of.

48:41I'm not going to lie to you. I do my best to cover this league. There were names I was seeing for the very first time. I mean, I almost want to petition the league to let the Ravens play the Niners this week, just to be fair. Because it's ridiculous. It's actually a great idea. It's like a rural Nebraska eight-man football. Let's just do that with these two team. They got nobody else. Like it's utterly absurd how injured the Ravens are already. And what's unfortunate for them is their depth isn't as good as we thought it was. Like take out the star players, just like the normal solid starters that you look at this roster over summer and you're like, okay, they got this guy, this guy, this guy, like how many, you know, either at or above replacement starters do they have?

49:29They don't have anybody behind those guys. So this is starting to look like a team where the starting 22 is great. And then the other 30 players on the team, you can't play them. So not that Houston's amazing right now either, but at least they got guys. So Van Noy will be back. Travis Jones will be back. Just looking at I've been trying to figure out who the action is. Every other guy I mentioned didn't practice on Wednesday. I thought this game merited a longer discussion.

50:02let's talk about the Texans because you're a Texans fan I'm wearing my Texans gear right now there you go it's been a very disappointing season but they managed to bludgeon the hopless Titans did you see anything in that game that gave you hope moving forward and that you might perhaps could translate this week as well the run game got better at least in the area that it was supposed to right woody marks uh i i think he is taking over that backfield essentially and there were signs of life in this run game in the first few weeks right their explosive rate i think was like top 10 um you know their average yards before contact per carry was second best in the nfl the first three weeks like they're another one of these teams that in the sean mcvay tree under kaylee it's like okay we're gonna run a lot of man blocking we're gonna go north south we're gonna get after you and like they they had the foundation of a good run game it's just they were 29th in yards after contact per attempt like they weren't making anything out of the room that they were given you put in woody marks who can he went from 29th to 19th it doesn't sound great but that's 10 plus spots in one week.

51:23That's an encouraging performance. If they can just get an average run game here, try to slow down the pass rush a little bit so they can live under center, live and play action, and help CJ survive that way. As soon as they have to go in the gun and do traditional drop-back passing, they can't protect. They really can't. The only saving grace is that Baltimore can't rush the passer either, so it's kind of like stoppable force against movable object. But they really got to run the ball here and protect CJ, or he's probably not going to make it the entire season anyway. I mean, assuming these injuries hold up, even with Jones and Van Noybeck, I feel like this is a real opportunity for, because even with a lot of those players playing, this Ravens defense had problems.

52:09But without them, this is pretty comfortably the worst defense in football by a large margin. So, yeah. And then on the other side of the ball, like you said, even if Lamar plays, if he's Gimpy, is that it? I'll have to say that word I don't know Anyways Sometimes there's words like I didn't know Is that an old timey bad thing This Texas defense I mean they've lived up to Expectations this year They have been as advertised frankly Like you know I mentioned the Rams game They were unbelievable in that game Even if Stafford did crazy Stafford things So yeah it's hard for me to talk about But I'm on Baltimore I don't really have a lot to say to be honest there's nobody left to talk about like they're I know I have all these thoughts as to like I think one thing that's interesting about tomorrow and I'll throw this out there is I wonder how the defensive injuries affect whether or not they make a coaching change because again even with starters in there I was pretty stunned by some of the issues that they were having just like in fundamentals but particularly like communication on the back end and I thought what is the record that they'd pull.

53:22It might be going from Zach Orr, who had the great second half of last season, to Pagano on staff or something. I'll be interested in seeing if the injuries affect that. It's such a legitimate excuse as to why they're probably going to struggle. It's hard for me to see them digging out of a hole if Lamar misses any time. It really is. And it's beginning to feel like a lost season for this team. They've just, it's brutal. I mean, the conference is already slipping away. Yeah. Although the, I don't know. We'll get to. Yeah. You already know the Steelers are going to win 10 games. Like that's baked in.

54:05So the goal for the Ravens was win 11. Of course the Steelers win a game with like a black field goal. Okay. You're going to win 11 games. Yeah. All right. Yeah, so I assume we're both taking Houston in this one. I am, which means Baltimore is going to win. Yeah. Somehow. I have Titans-Cardinals in this one, which is probably going to be the least discussed game this weekend, I would say.

54:37So I've talked more about the Cardinals than the Titans. What a weird Cardinals game last week was, by the way. Like the Marvin Harrison Jr. all-time terrible first half, and then everybody deleting their tweets second half. I mean, whatever, man. I don't know. I don't know what to say about him really at this point. It was just kind of an insane turn of events. I'm going to focus on the other side of the ball, which is really – I am interested – first of all, talking about Martin Harrison Jr., like is Calvin Ridley just bad now? He's not good. Yeah, because if he is completely futile in this offense, I just don't know how you give Ward a shot back there.

55:23Obviously, pass protection has been an issue. Ward has compounded some of those. They've run the ball okay. The Cardinals are actually pretty good against the run, so that would be concerning for me in this particular matchup. But someone – if I'm Tennessee, let me throw this. I know this isn't really matchup analysis, But I heavily consider a trade. Not talking about a big swing, but you need someone. You got to show it. A.M.N.R. has been okay, but right now, Ward's got no chance. And you run the risk of really setting back his development if you don't give him a solid veteran answer. And I've just been so disappointed with Calvin Ridley this season.

56:01Can I throw one at you? Yeah. Really, it's two from either. Let's do it. From one team. one of them is going to cost more than the other. But if things really go south in New Orleans, call them up. See what it would take to get either Alave or Shahid. Get something. Yeah. New Orleans is a great idea. No, I like that. Yeah. The goal for the season is like, we're trying to win. We're trading for vets. What are you talking about? That's a good one. Yeah. I like that idea. Or, you know, if... You know, Cleveland's got a whole bunch of guys on the roster like maybe like Tillman, you know, just something anybody who can catch.

56:45That's kind of the range I'm thinking in. Just like I'm not talking about like a huge swing per se, but it's just it feels like right now it's just so unsustainable. So a couple weeks ago, I saw a play where Cam Ward, you know, they were first of all, it was a sequence where I can't believe Brian Callahan even called him. They were backed up on their own goal line. They called three straight passes, one of which was a screen where all three guys were blocking one DB, and nobody turned around for the ball. So it's like nobody knows what they're doing over there. He just needs something, anything.

57:18I just feel awful for him. The Cardinals' run defense, they've been third in success rate and fourth in EPA per play versus the run, despite playing the second highest light box rate in football. Gannon ball, right? And a big part of that is the additions of Dava Tomlinson and Klay as Campbell in the box, predictably even very good. Um, the Cardinals inability to run the football is, I wouldn't say perplexing because I think there are pretty obvious explanations, but disappointing given that that's supposed to be the identity of this team. And they're not playing that much 12 and 13 personnel this year.

57:52And there there's, and obviously you lose James Connor for the season, but they weren't running the ball before. Well, before that, um, I've got Arizona winning this game to be clear, just cause I think the Titans are just really, really bad a football team really bad offense but cardinals have been underwhelming to me it's one of those games where yes you're going to pick arizona to win it but you also know in your bones it's going to be closer than it should yes 100 right fully and fully and like you look at arizona on paper and you're like that like they should be fighting for a seven seed yeah and it happened a couple weeks ago like they let carolina claw their way back into that game that they firmly took control of and like somehow it ended up being way closer than it needed to be closer you know close game against the Niners when they were starting a backup quarterback like this team consistently has played up and down to their competition but in the worst possible way for both and I I feel for Cardinals fans because they know they should be way better than they are yeah all right Buck Seahawk oh I assume you're right we're both in the Cardinals right yeah yeah sorry you said uh buck seahawks great game great game um uh you have the tampa buccaneers i'm on the seahawks who are playing at home this is throwing uh the world series or the world series the mlb playoffs into chaos by the way which is very crazy seattle's like we don't know what to do this has never happened before the mariners are playing they had to adjust the timing of the game because the stadiums are right next to each other and it's just not it's crazy yeah i was just talking to my buddy adam amin who's calling the game and And he's like, yeah, it's like at 530.

59:30I didn't even think about that. Well, that's probably never happened before because the Mariners are the banners. I know because everybody's like, what do we don't know what to do with ourselves? Downtown Seattle is going to be insane because this is like a good game. The Seahawks have all this buzz right now. But anyways, I'm going to be a nervous wreck that all day, by the way. Okay, so you go first with the Bucs. What is your key for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? so i want to you know get on my soapbox and talk about uh josh grizzard is it grizzard i think it's grizzard right i think it's grizzard because he's from lizard lick and i was like grizzard from lizard and i was corrected well he's doing a hell of a job he really you know third straight offensive coordinator no he is up against injuries crazy and i was optimistic about him going into the year because when, so on our podcast, the Bootleg Football Podcast, we do an hour to 90 minutes on every single team over the offseason.

1:00:29We break them down, we break down the staff, the schemes, everything. And when I was doing my deep dive into Tampa, I come across that he was actually in charge of their third downs last year. And he was also heavily in charge of red zone and this incredible screen game that they had, A lot of the offense last year, yes, Liam Cohn was running it, but he was in charge of a significant portion of it, and it was all high leverage stuff. And so I was like, okay, they were top of the rankings in every category for third down, whether it's e-paper play, conversion rate, all that. So I was like, this is probably going to work.

1:01:04And I think I even underestimated, as somebody who thought it was going to work, how good he's been. And it was in an area that I didn't actually expect, the run game. the run game for Tampa despite being banged up all over the place on the offensive line to start the year has been phenomenal and the reason why it's been phenomenal is because Grizzard has this way of tailoring the run game to each individual opponent all four weeks so far they have had a new like main run concept that they've that they've leaned on from week one to two to three to four they've completely switched up the run game every single game and where I first got clued into this, it was, we could actually probably show the clip of it because it was a Monday night game.

1:01:48The play after the Mike Evans offensive pass interference, it's like first and 20 in the red zone. And so he goes into a three by one because Houston's going to play quarters into that, right? Like Houston always plays quarters, but especially in a three by one, you got Willie Anderson over at left end. He's in a wide nine because he's going to tee off. This is a passing situation and he dials up same side power away from the three technique so he's pulling the center and then he has the right tackle which was gadecki just like slap anderson upside the head uses his momentum against him sends him into the backfield now you got two guys in space blocking for irving to the edge with a safety who's backed up because they're in quarters because he knew they were going to be in quarters and like it's the only time they've called that run the entire year he saved it for the exact situation he needed it which was a passing situation where they still wanted to run the ball in the high red zone and they got an explosive out of it.

1:02:40I'm like, oh my God, this guy's brilliant. And he does that every single week. They shouldn't have been able to run the ball as well as they have with a banged up offensive line. And obviously Bucky's been banged up as well, but they're so good at it. And it's because of this staff. So shout out Grisard. He's like, Baker might lose his third straight offensive coordinator because he's been so good. I got bad news for you, Grisard. the Seahawks run defense is awesome uh I'm sitting there pulling up the numbers you talking I was like I'm pretty sure yeah top second in EPA per play against the run third in DVOA thus far this year you know um talked a lot about the Mike McDonald effect on this defense in the year two effect that really started halfway through year one but like the the they're so improved at a couple of things defending play action which was an issue last year and but they're just so fundamentally sound against the run um the way that the first and the second level defense play together now the way they communicate the way i mean the safeties are awesome um obviously you know i think the corners are tackling well this is a really really scary run defense and i think tampa's gonna have to throw on them um which is also hard because their past defense is really good too i mean i you know i uh i think before the year i had the seahawks's fifth overall and dominique had them even higher and i was like wow dude like he had them maybe second or something crazy but like through four like in power rankings yeah like defense defense not the team just a Oh, defense.

1:04:28Okay. Yeah. I was like, there were so many people that were down on the Hawks this year. No, the offense has been the thing that's actually been more surprising to me in some ways. But I think they're just so good. I've been so impressed by them. And I mean, the Tampa offense is, I don't think Mike Evans is back for this game, right? Just to double check before I get into what I saw last week. I think he's out. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. So we're Bervin and Evans probably not playing in this game. That's brutal because I would probably feel different about the matchup if both of those players were playing.

1:05:06I do like that the offensive line is getting healthy. Um, I think the absence of get a key at right tackle is really hurt them on the ground in some ways, but this is just a Really, really, this defense is a buzzsaw. On the flip side, though, this defense is also really good. Dominique actually had them as top 10, and I was like, really? I don't know, man. Like, where's the pass rush coming from? And they got all these young players playing. So I was just posting about this, but I was watching the second half of the Eagles game to watch, like, what the hell went wrong with all the passing attempts.

1:05:39These Bucs young corners can play. The Nick Parrish dog. He is out there. He's also really sticky in coverage, but when he closes, and then I think when they played more zone, I thought Morrison, who's the second-round draft pick out of Notre Dame, was really solid as well. Can we take a moment, by the way, to appreciate the absolute freaking heater that Light has been on with his draft? I'm going to pull up the draft history. Jason Light, they're Bucks GM. Okay, so this year, Igbuka, Morrison, and Parrish, his first three picks, they all look like hits. last year Graham Barton awesome Tykee Smith Jalen McMillan of course Bucky Irving in the fourth round and in the previous year can't see Maush and Diaby and Dennis all starters Diaby's been good this year too like and then the previous year was when he had Garecki and Rashad White and Kate Auton and Zion McCollum like my god I mean that's a four-year heater like back-to-back that is a crazy run of drafts and this might even be his best which is unbelievable i i think obviously it's fair to say how he's the best gm in football but the two teams in the nfc that give the eagles the most issues are the rams and the bucks because they also have really good gms that can build rosters pound for pound that can threaten philly and the lions and the lions right in fact you could say that the nfc as far as like top tier gms is like eight yeah 80 of them right yeah it's just the afc has better quarterbacks but like yeah yeah yeah gms and the rosters are in the nfc it's it's really true but anyways i just wanted to take a moment to appreciate that so the cx offense um i thought darnold was really really really good on thursday night football and and i thought he was really good in a way that particularly impressed me because it wasn't just like schemed up stuff right you know i thought oh okay play action guys are open whatever He's not pressured.

1:07:35He was making throws out of structure, third down, all of that. So this Tampa defense is very, very good against the run. They're right there with Seattle on those numbers. So my feeling is Darnold is going to be challenged in a way that maybe he hasn't been thus far this season, to be honest, just as a passer. I'm interested in seeing how they approach Tampa's blitzes. You know, we talked a little bit about Philadelphia and some of Hertz's struggles. Darnold's been okay against the Blitz, but one thing I find kind of fascinating is his answer overwhelmingly has been bombing JSN. I mean, his answer to everything is JSN, which, good answer.

1:08:10But versus the Blitz, he is first amongst all quarterbacks right now in average depth of target. JSN has a 36 % target share when Darnold is Blitz, which is a lot. His average depth of target is 19 yards. so um yeah so i think that's what i'm interested in is can he keep it up or because he's also thrown a couple of interceptions when bliss has come this is the this is yet another challenge for sam darnold it's a very different style of defense from what they've been playing this far so i have a a couple stats for you that i dan's gonna love even when he sees this you can you can take this to dan on nfl live because i saw him talking about how like the value of being under center in the modern NFL, right?

1:08:55And how the best offenses are under center. So the Seahawks are second in under center usage rate, but it's how they go under center that I think is really the fascinating part here. If you're looking at teams like say the Colts, 100 % of their play action or 100 % of their pass plays from under center are play action. Like basically if they throw from under center, it is a play action pass. You look at Seattle, only 72 % of their under center passes are play action, which sounds like a lot, but it's actually relative to the rest of the NFL. It's not. There's a significant 25 % of the teams when they throw under center, every single time it's play action.

1:09:38What that means is 28 % of the time when the Hawks are throwing from under center, it is a true drop back pass, meaning they're getting into quick game from under center. They're doing true five-step stuff from under center. They're working every blade of grass, they're not only bombing it on play action fakes going touchdown to check down. They're doing all the intermediate stuff too, which is kind of a lost art in the modern NFL. And if you're looking at in between the numbers, between a depth of 10 to 22 yards, like the danger zone, Sam is perfect. He hasn't missed a pass yet. He has a hundred percent completion rate.

1:10:12He's like 15 yards per attempt in that area of the field. So, you know, credit to Kubiak obviously for unlocking the deep ball with him to JSN, but it's all the other stuff. It's the fact that when they're lined up under center, you don't know if it's a run and you don't know if it's quick game. Defenses, they can't just sag off and play the deep stuff. They have to be aware. It's such a different offense, but it's different because it looks like it's 2006. That's what makes it good. That's really interesting. God, I remember Nate Tyson was like, I think we're going to see more under center now play action during the offseason.

1:10:50And I was like, from whom? Well, Seattle. Yeah, no, but your point is really good about making defenses, especially because, like I said, I don't think they're going to run the ball well in this one. I'm skeptical of it. And the run game has been pretty hit or miss. This feels like the Bucs run defense is really good. So I just think a lot is going to be on Sam Darnold's shoulders. to your point, making them defend the whole field, making them respect his ability to attack different parts of the field from those under center looks is big. I'm going Seattle in this one. And a lot of it has to do with the Bucs injuries.

1:11:21You know, they're really banged up on offense still coming into this. Irving's just such a special back. And even if he does play, it sounds like he's going to be hurt. So I think that's going to help Seattle out. If they had Bucky, I probably would have gone Tampa just because when you have Bucky and Baker together, weird magic happens. They just make plays that normal players can't make, and you stack those on top of each other and they win games. The fact that Bucky's out, I don't think Baker's just moxie and magic can overcome all these injuries, especially against a team like Seattle. So I'll go Seattle.

1:11:56But if both these teams were fully healthy, I probably would have gone Tampa. Lions, Bengals, you can be quick on this one, brother. um i'm not sure this is allowed to be televised in like 17 states this is not okay like as far as have you looked at lines don't look if you it's it's got to be at least 14 all right actually no nfl is usually more conservative it's not that's like college this is in cincinnati it's in cincinnati notably 10 and a half, but it's in Cincinnati. So, but it's just, it's such a lopsided game in every single possible way. And I have, I, I have gotten into it with Bengals fans repeatedly over the last year because I have protested against how they have built this roster and them making two crucial errors that have led to where they are now, which is them having star power, but basically only a core of like four to five stars and then nothing else like the rest of the team not a whole lot going on for them and that's partially because they haven't drafted well and partially because they're the way they approached these extensions whether it was the jamar thing the t thing the tray thing they've always waited so long that these deals have cost way more money than they should have and because of that they haven't had the resources is to go out and get a Malik Collins for$10 million a year, who's been great in Cleveland, or get a Jordan Lewis for$10 million a year, who's been amazing in Jacksonville.

1:13:33You don't have to go out and buy stars. You just have to buy good players that are$10 to$12, $13 million a year. And when you're spending tens of millions extra on four guys because you wait forever to do these deals, and not only that, you compound that mistake by caving into your quarterback who's like demanding you sign T's like no team in the history of like the modern NFL. I looked this up like we looked at every single receiver duo that was either like dual pro bowlers or dual thousand yards and none of them ever in the history of this sport has have taken up as large of a cap percentage as these two are.

1:14:11It's never worked. The only team that's come close is Miami with Waddle and Hill. How did that go? Like they significantly depleted their trench talent because they couldn't pay those guys. They got worse where it matters and they just haven't been a great team. So they caved in on their quarterback, giving him what he wanted rather than what was best for the team. And because they waited so long to cave, it cost more. So their roster has been worse and they're bad at drafting on top of that. Bengals fans have been upset at me when I point this out and I say, it's not going to work. And they're like, oh, you just hate the Bengals.

1:14:44It's like, no, I am mad at the team for you. This is not how you build a competitive roster. And unfortunately, they're now in a spot where you lose one guy and it all falls apart because that one guy was the only thing that made it semi-watchable. In conclusion, you're picking the Lions. Yeah, probably by a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, it's brutal.

1:15:17I'm just so depressed watching the Bengals right now. The last game against Denver was depressing. The defense, some of the stuff they gave up was just so appalling. It can always get worse is the answer, by the way. It can always get worse. Sorry, Lions fans. You can be a bad team. You just can't be bad TV, and they're bad TV. Lions fans, let me throw you one quick bone. So I picked the Lions as a top – I had them six on my defense, and people were like, wow, alluded to the defensive rankings. And after week one, I was a little nervous because when Green Bay rolled them, feeling a lot better now because this Lions defense has really looked good.

1:15:54Tyleek Williams has looked really good to me. So I'm feeling very good about Detroit on both sides of the ball. Sorry, Lions fans. Not going to talk about your game very much this week. You understand why. This episode is brought to you by Google Health. Stop chasing someone else's definition of health. What matters is what's healthy for you. Google Health offers a new kind of coach, built with Gemini for effortless tracking, sleep insights, and holistic coaching tailored to you. Visit googlestore.com to learn more and start a new relationship with your health. Requires Google account, Google Health app, internet, and Google Health premium subscription.

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1:17:28Why wait? Ask your doctor, visit BotoxChronicMigraine.com, or call 1-800-44-BOTOX to learn more. You know when you're locked in, focused and fearless. Welcome to the WNBA. Your vision narrows. You can't look away. Every assist, every stop, every logo three. From beyond the logo. Every did you see that moment. You bet. What records are going to be broken this season? All of it right here. Lock in. It's the WNBA on ESPN. All season long. Okay, we got three more games. Let's do Chargers, Commander Chargers here. This is a good game because it appears that Jay Daniels is playing. Joe Alt is still out, doubtful, for LA.

1:18:23McKay Beck didn't. We'll be back, so at least one hole would be plugged. I'm on the Chargers side. You're on the Commander's side. So I don't know if it's the right to look at this from the Chargers' point of view or the Commander's point of view, but the one thing I wrote about LA is, because I think this defense can absolutely stop Washington through the air. Can you contain Jane Daniels as a runner? And this comes with a major caveat, which is we don't know how much of a runner he's going to be coming back from the hammy and all that. but as we saw against Jackson Dart some of that might have been like preparation but I think some of it is structural this is a defense that gives up quarterback runs in fact um they have allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season we saw that week one against Patrick Mahomes as well and again I think some of it is structural but it's a pretty big problem uh against this particular quarterback and i feel like i can't you just see it being like oh jay jay has her we don't know if he's gonna run and then like the first drive he just rips off like a 20 yard scramble so i think to me that's a pretty big key for the chargers defense in this game this defense under jesse minner prioritizes coverage over pressure and they really cut you know prioritize depth in their coverage it's very much uh okay if your quarterback has to run 10, 12 times to beat us.

1:20:01We can deal with that. Obviously, it's not ideal, but they would rather your quarterback have to expose themselves to that many carries and taking that kind of punishment rather than them just sitting in the pocket and dicing you up through the air or getting explosives. They're going to make you earn every single yard and they're going to make you mount these really long drives. They're not going to give you these explosives. So it worked for the Giants for a variety of reasons. Dexter Lawrence interception probably helped, but generally speaking, it's not going to work for everybody. And I really worry that, especially with a banged up Jaden Daniels, it might not work for them.

1:20:44I want to talk about the Chargers offense too, but what is your key for the commanders before I get to that? Because if your key is defensive, maybe i can uh my my key is defensive and it's they're both good and bad at the same time right and and that's what makes this commander's defense interesting to me because they have the fourth highest pressure rate in the nfl right now uh but but they kind of get it through blitzing in particular they get it through man blitzing they have the 10th highest blitz rate but on blitzes they have the second highest pressure rate on blitzes 52 percent uh that's crazy Ironically, the Chargers is the only team that are ahead of them.

1:21:22So the Chargers also don't blitz that much, but when they do, it really, really works. And while that is great that they get pressure on the back end, they are extremely vulnerable. You know, their most called or second most called coverage is cover one, but generally that is going to be packaged with a pressure because when they don't pressure while playing man coverage, they get diced up. Like they really need to put heat on the quarterback because these guys can't cover for very long. if you're looking at. You said it, not me. He got cooked. Here's the split for you. On man coverage with a blitz attached, they're 12th best in EPA per play.

1:22:01On man coverage without a blitz attached, they're 26th. It's like they can't survive in man unless they're bringing heat. And that will probably benefit them against LA because again, their offensive line is banged up. But if they do, like, you know, just sit in six man protections all day long and they pick up these pressures. These corners can't cover the Chargers receivers. So there's potential here for an upset. If you want to call it an upset, the Chargers are a good team, but if they are upset, it's because they can't cover these guys. Yeah. I wrote, can Justin Herbert be a supercomputer too, is my, one of my questions, because I do think they'll do blitz.

1:22:40And I think there'll be vulnerabilities. Um, the Falcons went really aggressively at Lattimore they went at Wagner in coverage which is generally a smart thing to do and I think um you know Herbert has all has been nails against the Blitz most of his career really he's a really good decision maker he's really really accurate and in some ways if I'm Herbert I actually prefer that at this moment with the state of the offensive line because it's like cool ball out I know my answer versus ah we're getting destroyed and guys they're actually covering you know what I mean so I think it's actually works in Herbert's favor.

1:23:15I felt like the Chargers, like they kind of went away from the run a little bit too early, I thought. And it was really working last week against New York. And you finally got things going with Amari and Hampton, even with the injuries on the offensive line. I'd like to see them. I'd also like to see this just be a big Amari and Hampton game, both as a pass catcher. I think he's really, really good. And like I said, you want to get him on Wagner. And then I think, I think, you know, just even with the blocking issues, I think running the ball, He, to me, is starting to look more like he did in college every week.

1:23:48I don't know. I feel maybe like an idiot because of the offensive line injuries. Maybe the Becton being back helps me in this regard, and maybe it's a terrible decision. But this feels to me like it could be a Justin Herbert takes over kind of game. The question I wanted to ask you about the Chargers offense was, I know it's tough. what if jayden was at full strength as a runner i would probably go commanders here and again i could look really stupid if he takes off right away i really think that's what's a right possibility the question i wanted to ask you is actually is you think there'll be any consideration to playing becton at left tackle because the guy that they played last week was it was really like dead on arrival um deculus i think was his last name yeah that's an interesting thought they might because Becton has played left tackle in the past yeah he was drafted as a left tackle so I don't know just you know just a thought I could see I mean I think he's a better mover than Dekulis right it's not like he's unfamiliar with lining up there I could see that I mean if Joe Tooney can do it right yeah right it's I mean fortunately all won't be out for a super long time but it's just it was really brutal last week I don't know maybe it never mind I'm gonna pick Washington.

1:25:06The more I think about the offensive line, I'm like, I can't do it. I want to pick the upset because I do think that there's potential to attack this commander's defense, but the Chargers offensive line is so bad right now. It's one of those, the Chargers started off really strong because their offensive line was playing super well. And so it's like, okay, but if you remove one of the core reasons why things have gotten better there, which is Justin Herbert not getting killed. And then you look at what happened when the offensive line got banged up, which was Justin Herbert getting pressured every other play.

1:25:38It kind of feels like there might be a few weeks where they go back to like that 2022 2023 chargers where it's Justin Herbert against the world, which was not a winning formula for them. Like, I, especially against a team like Washington, I probably, it's hard. It's tough. I would probably lean Washington slightly. Okay. I'm going to take Washington. I don't know. I did talk to myself into it because I was like, I don't know. Sean Lattimore. But yeah, especially with Daniel's back in the lineup. Pat spills is me.

1:26:15Drake bank. Kind of ball. Good. First in completion percentage right now. And he's 24th in average of the target. So that's notable. Cause it's not like he's just dinking and dunking early in the season. He was only pushing the ball downfield, but now he is. According to, I'm just using the FTM Fantasy, third in EPA per dropback, ahead of Josh Allen, by the way. Top 10 in success rate, accuracy rate, CPOE, completion percentage over expected. The only thing he's not top 10 in is in DVOA, which accounts for opponent. And that's kind of the big question, right? Like, okay, he's been balling, looks really good.

1:26:57He's been really accurate. but he has played pretty little level competition. Last week you saw something cool, which was Steph Diggs breakout game, which notably too, it wasn't just like that he was getting targets, but he was winning downfield and separating in a way where he looked healthier than, you know, he has all season long. So that's a pretty big development because the Patriots may has been good. The offense has been looking good, but they haven't been able to attack downfield. Kyle Williams, the third round draft pick, hasn't been a huge part of the plan. So that was good to see. So, you know, I'm just like, they're going to be, I think Bill's offense will have success moving the ball in New England.

1:27:38I think they'll be able to run the ball well the way they have been against everybody. So I'd like to see if Drake may go toe to toe because the Bill's defense is okay. They're still missing guys. They're okay. But thus far in the season, quietly, one of the stories of the NFL season thus far has been how well Drake may has been playing. So I mentioned, you know, in the last game that the commanders are fourth in pressure rate. The Bills are third, right? Like they really struggle to stop the run, but they can rush the passer. It's kind of been one of their main strengths defensively this year.

1:28:09So that Bills pass rush against the Patriots offensive line, which is much better than pass throw. Much better, yeah. Like shockingly better. But yeah, no, that's another part of this Drake May success story, no doubt. that's a huge matchup, right? I would say the thing that intrigues me the most, though, even beyond D-line versus O-line, the thing that intrigues me the most about Bill's defense against Patriots offense is Drake May as a processor has been exceptional this year. And I was doing some digging through all the data this morning because I know that Buffalo has a tendency and has always had a tendency to be a rotation-heavy defense.

1:28:55Yeah, on the back end. Start out in two high, you roll down into cover three. They rotate at the fifth highest rate in the league, and 41 % of those rotations are starting out in two high, getting into cover three. There is one quarterback in the NFL right now, minimum 25 attempts, who has a higher passer rating than Drake May against those rotations, and it's Jordan Love. And if you're looking at EPA per play, he is first. it's like 0.906 which you that sounds like a small number if you know epa that is a monster number so he has been exceptional against rotation this year uh carolina does it a super high rate obviously shredded them had like a 155 passer rating so the fact that drake is is identifying these rotations and then knowing exactly where to go with the ball and also not dying immediately because his offensive line is playing better.

1:29:46That's been a huge part of their success this year. I am fascinated to see if he can keep that up against Buffalo, who A, does that also a lot, but B, they're much better at it than the other defenses he's faced. I'm taking the bills here, but I think the Pats have the potential to make it interesting. The other thing I would say about the Pats is that the defensive line is getting after it as well. while you talk about the Bills pressure, I mean, the combination of Melton Williams and Christian Barmore has been exceptional. Now the Bills offensive line is arguably the best in football, right?

1:30:23So they're going to be, I think, challenged. But with Gonzalez back in the lineup now, they're able to get a little bit more time. And so, you know, this could be interesting. That's all. This could be interesting. I feel like, you know, I don't know. I'm trying to think of like, you know, The other thing I like about the Pats too is I like right now it feels like McDaniels in May are sort of settling out an identity. It's kind of, they've gotten tried a bunch of different things the first few weeks of the season. You know, since last two or three weeks, two weeks or so, it's been pretty heavy play action.

1:31:00I think that's the right approach against this bills defense as well, coupled with the, the downhill running game. So we'll see if that works. The specialty is also really good, by the way, 167 yards of punt return yardage last week. Shout out Michael Ripple. You're taking the Bills too, I presume. There's always one game a week that doesn't go the way people think it will. I think that's going to be this one. I'm going to go Patriots to get a road win in Buffalo. Let's go. It sounds insane, but I'm telling you guys, if they didn't fumble five times against the Steelers, they would have blown them out too.

1:31:38That was, to me, I thought Drake May was excellent in that game outside of he really good outside of the fumble really really good they should have won that game and he was really accurate decisive made some difficult throws made some great he's so good at throwing on the move there was a ball he threw this last week too i think it was hunter henry it's usually hunter henry where he was like rolling to his left and it looked it looks so effortless and then when you saw from the end zoom view i was like holy shit like this is not an easy throw at all so playing really good football i think the mark of a great team is if they go up against this.

1:32:12There's two things. If you have a really bad day, you come out and you absolutely destroy the next team you play against. They did that. And if you go up against a bad team, you absolutely destroy them. They did that. Yeah. Arguably, they were destroying the Steelers. It's other than five plays in that game. Right. I think they're really, really, really good. Like really good. Okay. So the Chiefs are actually Monday night favorites on the road to Jacksonville, but not by a ton. three and a half but again it is on the road coming off of a big win against baltimore i i'm going to jacksonville jacksonville is really hard to get to sorry just personal complaint it's hard to get to it's hard to go to places from there i'm happy to go there it seems lovely i'm sure it's gonna be nice and warm but like can we get some non-stops to jacksonville that's all i'm asking you have to go through atlanta i assume i don't even know i hate doing probably go to atlanta then take like a puddle jumper for half an hour i think I think I'm taking a puddle jumper from Jacksonville to New York, which is going to be terrifying.

1:33:12What? I don't know. Something horrible. All right. I don't want to complain. People don't like listening to you complain. Yes, I'm so sorry. My glamorous job of flying to Monday Night Football. I'm not going to complain about it. Just saying, I like going to places where I can do nonstop flights. That's all. Okay. Chiefs-Jags. I'm on the Jags. You're in the Chiefs. You go first. What are you looking for? This is a good – I'm excited about this. I'm really excited about this game. I think it's going to be great. I think not overreacted. That's not the right word for it. I think people mischaracterized what the actual issue with this chief's offense was in weeks one through three.

1:33:49They still can't really run the ball. Well, they haven't been able to run the ball well in years at this point. That ain't going away. That's a feature, not a bug. Pass protection obviously has been better. That's been a key component, but the main issue with this chief's offense was they didn't have the quick passing game that replaced their run game traditionally. It's been a lot of stick routes and screens and just little, okay, Travis reading pressure here. I'm going to find space. Pat hit me immediately. I'm going to get seven yards out of it. That's how they run the ball. It's just a run with extra steps.

1:34:25And if you're looking at weeks one through three, Mahomes only had a 65 % completion rate on passes under 10 yards. Sounds great. It's really not. The average is about 75. Sorry, the average is 74%. Sorry, I have the exact number here. In week four, he completed 77%. So he went from, you know, basically 10 % under average up to above average, went from 4.4 yards per attempt compared to a league average of 5.4 on quick passes all the way up to a 6.3 yards per attempt. So the fact that they had the quick passing game, he had 26 such attempts. He hit 20 of them. He had two touchdowns, no picks underneath.

1:35:06His EPA per play was like absolutely insane. The fact they had that quick passing game again is why the offense worked. He threw four bombs to Xavier Worthy. He only hit one of them. That really wasn't the difference. It was the fact that they on second and 10 could get eight yards again. Then you line up with Kareem Hunt and he's not going to get you more than three, but he will get you those three yards. So he's going to move the chains. Then we do it all over again. like it it looked like how it's supposed to look because all the rhythm throws were there so that's really the only difference yeah you know Mahomes has had spotty accuracy so far this season but if he just has the quick stuff back they're gonna be fine worthy on those quick outs is such a problem too like you really saw that in the second half of the season last year um you're right like it certainly helps if you can just connect on at least like a one or two of those deep balls because obviously affects the way defenses play them.

1:35:59But he has been such an answer for them versus man coverage. Again, going back to really the second half of last season. And I think that is, you know, pretty meaningful. This Jags defense plays a lot less man than they did last year, mercifully. A moment, by the way, for the Jags defense. this went from being the worst defense in football to at minimum average sometimes they look better than average they're getting after it the secondary is playing really good Jordan Lewis has been really good for them in the slot like the coaching staff I think has done a tremendous job in Jacksonville linebacker duo is playing like one of the best in the NFL Lloyd and Ola Kuhn like they're playing really well and I wanted to mention the linebacker duo in particular because I think that's always very important against this Chiefs offense which like you said it's a lot of quick game what rpos like um devon lloyd he's awesome comeback player of the year since we're just doing comebacks from being bad i mean like there's like three guys there's three guys on that team you can say that about right right but like what a turnaround for that dude holy smokes i would also uh i gotta give flowers to Trayvon Walker.

1:37:21He wasn't bad last year at all. I'd actually say he was good last year. But this year, he's been great. Unfortunately, he's going to be out this game with a wrist injury. At least I think he's going to be out. Jeremy Fowler said he was seeing a specialist, which usually means probably going to be out. But him and Hines Allen together have been an elite pass rush duo. To your point, the linebackers have been great. The safeties have been much better. They've gotten much better safety play this year than last year. And the fact that they play so much zone coverage now means they're capitalizing on all these tips and overthrows, and they exceeded their entire turnover count from last season by the fourth quarter of week three.

1:37:58It's insane how productive they've been. So Mahomes, he can't really afford to miss on the underneath stuff in this one because if somebody throws a hand up and they tip the ball, it's going to get picked. And I don't think they can afford to do that here. So here's something I like about Jacksonville in this one. That's my side of the ball. i really think they can run on kansas city um the jacksonville offense in general it's felt like they're so close to putting it all together and many everybody noticed this week i saw like all the football nerds were like oh just don't run btj over the middle of the field right like it was like literally let's go all out it's funny i think liam cohen was asked about it and he denied it he was like, it was just a game plan.

1:38:45It's like, bro, come on. Like we, so that works. But, but the thing that has been consistent with this offense from week one is they are just so much better at running the football this year than they've been in the past. Um, and you know, they're top 10 rushing offense in most metrics are really, I think they're third in DVOA right now. Um, but like we, we talked a little bit about San Francisco struggles at stopping the outside runs again it's just been when i go back and watch the jags run spread like i'm just so impressed by the blocking like etn looks great making great cuts good vision super explosive tootin's great too but like everybody's blocking their butts off and it's crazy it's mostly the same players that's what's remarkable about it right well these tight ends man strange um but i i should there's been changes on the interior of the offensive line but like the tackles goodness little and harrison every yeah all these explosive runs every time i hit pause and like they're just sending dudes flying so i i think that that's a mismatch for kansas city run defense that's been sneaky pretty bad this year um ranks near the bottom of the nfl in most metrics and so i wouldn't be surprised if they're able to grind out we always know with patrick mong grind out drives keep them off the field but i legitimately think they're capable of it against this defense I would even argue, you know, the common narrative of like, okay, you want to go down in the mud against Kansas City.

1:40:18You want to limit possessions. You want to, you know, extend drives and keep homes off the field. I would argue that's the exact opposite of what you wanted to do against Kansas City the last couple of years. They want to have really long sustained drives because they're going to be so good on third down, because he moves the chains with his legs, because they can count on if it's a one possession game in the fourth quarter, Chris Jones is going to make the play we need. Like they want to limit possessions because that limits their surface area or exposure to just things going wrong. It sounds crazy to turn it into a track meet, but Kansas City has not been a track meet kind of team.

1:40:58They've been a ball control kind of team. You can hit explosives with BTJ. You can hit explosives with ETN. Brenton Strange, if you make it 13 possessions each rather than 10, you can kind of, again, you don't completely get rid of, but you can mitigate the factor that Mahomes has in high leverage situations by just making them run more plays, like making everybody run more plays. And it's almost like a college mentality. Like you see Syracuse run 80 plays a game, it's warp speed because they think that they're going to make less mistakes overall than you will. You have to do that to Kansas City.

1:41:35If you make it each place getting 62 plays, Mahomes is going to get more out of those 62 plays than you will. You need the extra 10 to 15 plays. You can hit more explosives and try to make them play catch up. That's really the only way that you can take them down. I'm I'd be fascinated to see if they pick up the pace to do that.

1:41:56I'm still going to take the chiefs purely because of how comfortable and confident. And also with the Mahomes, the Chiefs offense has made a few tweaks last week that I think are going to help them run the ball more and better. Mahomes under center, by the way. Well, there. What a concept. It's a thing. But I don't feel great about it because I really think this Jags offense can move the ball on them. I really do. And I think this to me is going to I believe this is going to be a one-score game that comes down to the very end. I really do. And if it's a one-score game that comes down to the very end, I'm going to take the greatest quarterback on earth.

1:42:42But it's close. It's close for me, Brett. It's exceptionally close. And again, I will lean Kansas City just because at this point, why wouldn't you? But if Jacksonville just gets one turnover in this game and they do like a 10 point swing off a turnover. It's not that Kansas City is worse than they were in like the high flying days, but they're different and they're built a different way. They're built to play, you know, in the mud. I think if Jacksonville stays above the mud and they try to make it, you know, let's swap explosives for explosives. We think we can hit one more than you and let's just get one turnover on them.

1:43:26That's their path to victory. I'll still take Kansas City because I'm going to feel like a moron picking against Pat Mahomes. And then if he comes out and wins it anyway, like I I'd rather be wrong picking with Mahomes than against him. But I wouldn't be shocked if Jacksonville won this. No, no Walker definitely hurts. I know where Chris Jones is going to line up. Yeah. All right. Well, I mean, Trevon Walker, sorry. I didn't know he wasn't playing until you told me I completely missed that. yeah, I'm sticking with Kansas city. I'm sticking with it, Kansas city, but I, it's close. This is a close one for me.

1:44:06It really is. Um, all right, well, that's it for this week. Those are all of our games and picks. Um, you guys check out the bootleg football podcast, wherever you get your pods. Also, you're listening to this on Thursday, tomorrow, the very first, uh, the return of love is kimes, my love is blind recap show with David Dennis, Jr. year we are recapping the season and it is i don't do you do you watch love is blind have ever seen it i have been deathly afraid of getting sucked into it this latest season is in denver you did you live in denver or did i have you spent time no i i my brother lived in colorado springs for 10 years so i went out to colorado to visit him lovely town by the way i like it i like denver uh this has been so i the this season takes place in denver and i feel like i'm learning so much about Denver and like the people who live there and I find it so fascinating, but it's been really juicy.

1:44:59So check out the season, check out the recap. It's on YouTube where you can download viewer discretion, wherever you get your pods. Um, as always, I will be back on Tuesday morning to talk about what should be, if you listen to this preview, a very exciting, uh, Monday night game, which of course means it'll be a blowout or something, um, with Dominique Foxworth. Thank you as always to my friends at Omaha Productions, Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, and Tucker Taschen for making the show.