Bear Trap? Previewing Week 13

33:42And we asked him like, you know, like you've been working your way back and like, what have you learned from Mac and whatever. And Brock was extremely clipped in his answers. And in my opinion, Brock knows he's less than a hundred percent and is getting back. So he knows that Mac's playing really good football. Brock generally struggles to drive the football. He certainly cannot right now. I think that's like, you know, that's a big part of not being able to push off that toe the way that he would like to. He's going to be playing in Cleveland and what is expected to be, you know, consistent wins about 10, 15 miles per hour, potentially gusts a lot higher.

34:09There's also a chance of precipitation. And we're going against miles Garrett who has, since we started this podcast, another two and a half sacks, right? Like this line opened at six. It is now four. Like I am very much Sanders wins. I just opened it. It's five. I've seen, I know we've gotten to four at certain books this week. I don't look at it. Hey y 'all. that Niners defense. Yes, they're playing well, but a lot of that was about Carolina. We talked about it this week. That, to me, feels like an overreaction. Oh, Robert Sala's got these guys play. They're definitely playing really well, given all the injuries.

34:44This game, 100%, is a protect the football, avoid the turnover game. If you are Kevin Stefanski, Tommy Reese, talking to Shudder Sanders, you're like, listen, you did a great job minimizing sacks. You threw the one pick, but if we can avoid negatives, we're going to run our screens to Harold fan and our reverses to Isaiah Bond. We're going to run Quinn John Judkins. This is going to be a field position game. It's going to be a special teams game. The defense is going to let them score 10 to 13 points. The Browns defense is going to... This Niners offensive line is not a league average below average unit.

35:11The Browns defense is much better against the run than the Panthers is. This is going to be grimy, ugly, and close. I do not trust Brock to throw his way into a lead in this game. It's going to be a one-score game in the fourth quarter. Then it's like, hey, we need to pop one big play and we can win this thing. I'm very much... I legitimately think the Browns win this game. It's because I cannot trust Brock right now. I picked the Browns last week and I am tempted to do it again here. I think that they will be able to attack the Niners linebackers in a way that for some reason the Panthers didn't which is very frustrating and weird to watch to be honest.

35:48We texted after that game. I don't understand this plan at all. I wasn't there. I didn't get it. I love Fannin Jr. By the way, you talked about him. I just love watching him play. I saw a stat. I cannot recall who tweeted it. I apologize. But I saw a stat that said, somebody said there's been two games this season in which a tight end has broken at least five tackles. Fannin has both of them. Third round rookie out of Bowling Green. Second tight end on his team. What a ball player. Not a high volume player. That is such a testament to the unique athlete that he is. I have him. Not to be, you know, I compare myself to Harry Roseman over here, but in my dynasty league with Tyson Danny, I took dart and Fannin and I am feet.

36:31It's a crazy deep league. If it's not obvious that I, I, cause you're playing both, but I am feasting. Um, okay. I think I'm going to take 87 % chance of rain. According to most recent, I'm going to take Cleveland. Come on. Brock in a ring. The best unit in this game is the same as he is. The Browns defense, miles Garrett setting the new single season sack record in front of the home crowd while Sanders wins his second start beating an NFC contender. in the San Francisco 49ers. It's good for the content, Mina. Sanders, real quick, because I saw you did write about him. Your thoughts were pretty much aligned with, because I didn't talk about it because we did the Thanksgiving games.

37:11Brought some actual playmaking that's been missing in this offense. The throw to bond was beautiful. The down-to-down consistency, you know, it has to improve. um the one thing i liked was he didn't take like a bunch of super sacks the way that was one thing i was a little bit worried about it was more like i you could definitely feel him wanting to get the ball out quickly but some of the accuracy was up and down but i think from in terms of like a development and progression um you know i he he is an accurate quarterback and i think we will see some improvement in that regard he's just got to avoid negative plays i've had the interception very rookie rookie moment so just you know a few of those explosive plays and then otherwise being efficient will go a long way i will be enough i feel like not just in this game but in some of the other ones looking at their schedule yeah if you bring the same down that ounce success rate as dylan gabriel and joe flacco which is about where he was against the raiders but you also create one explosive per game then like that can be enough for this browns defense right it's a high wire act you either hit the 55 yard throw you don't right and that's like a very hard throw to hey, you'd like to have more consistency.

38:23But for a fifth round rookie, it was about the typical sort of first year start that you expect, right? They ended up with the win because the defense is so good. There was nice stuff to build on rolling to his right, avoiding sacks, you know, identifying blitz stuff at the line of scrimmage. And there's a lot of stuff that needs to be better, right? He's like a very physically deficient quarterback. He does not have from your arm talent. He is not loose. He is not strong. He is not fast. Like he is a below average NFL athlete. So you got to be really perfect at a lot of stuff. And that's an unrealistic expectation for any rookie in their first career start, second career start, moving forward.

38:53It is funny because I realize, I think, I don't know if you and I talked about this, but he has a lot of Purdy-like traits in this game. Kind of like it. Brock and what he was is like, I always viewed as being like, this is what you could be if you could play with anticipation when Brock was, you know, when he plays well. Yeah, like, you know, I think there's an opportunity here. The Niners defense is gettable, and I'd love to see him just, you know, let's see that completion percentage tick. Obviously, the numbers were spun in all kinds of directions because you have the big catch and run, but then you also have Jerry Judy dropping a very hilarious shot.

39:36The Judy fumble, dude. You could see that thing happening in slow motion. You just see Jeremy Chin just cruising in like a shark from the sideline, man. So on one hand, it's like, you know, it was inflated, but then it was also deflated. Right. It was a perfect game for narratives. You could construct the most pro and the most anti-Sanders arguments you want from the numbers. Ideal. So what I want to see if I'm a Browns fan is just that time to throw, staying, you know, not getting too high. I don't want to see super sacks and, you know, just efficiency and accuracy. All right. Let's wrap with Titans Jags.

40:07Jags at Titans. I want to talk about Cam Ward because I haven't talked about him a ton as of late and his performance against Seattle. I posted this during the game was better than many veteran quarterbacks against the Seahawks defense, which is very good. They were missing their linebackers, but they're still very good. I thought it was certainly the most impressive to me. It was the most impressive performance by, you know, rookie quarterback this season dart against Philadelphia was given the stage and how unexpected it was, was also impressive as, but I, but given, you know like this defense also given who the i the throw i think all of us zeroed in on the same it was like a third down throw against the blitz um to james proche i think yep james proche who the second we used to do memes about when he was on the ravens like lamar's throwing to this guy i mean he was throwing to dudes i did not know we're on i'm not gonna lie to you it's when he hit proche on the throw that i was like oh he is the next lamar right it is ordained proche proche is the one who declares he's the herald of the next revolutionary rookie quarterback reading the coverage rotation understanding the leverage placing the ball perfectly to avoid this i mean it was just beautiful uh he also made a number of really impressive throws outside of structure i i just to me like you know he's got the goods and like the titans are a dismal team they like just completely uh absent like really need to especially in offense the offense is just gross like in terms of you know what he's dealing with but if i'm a head coach and i'm watching i you're trying to get you know whoever the hot coaches to come play them this game because i thought he was really special in it and you know i mean i i i still think the jags win because of the aforementioned talent deficiency, but I just wanted to take a moment to highlight how good he was because, yeah, it was great.

42:15I think he beats the Jags. I think the Titans. Oh, okay. This offense has been getting better week over week since the firing of Cal. They have played the two toughest defenses are two of the three in Houston and in Seattle, right? I know, I know Broncos fans are furious with this podcast of this podcast and this duo, you and I particularly for our rankings, their defense at times. So forgive me, but two of the three best defenses in football. and Ward has looked better and more comfortable in every single one. Gunnar Helm is playing better football. Shamir DK is playing better football for them.

42:43They might get Eilich Iaman are back for this game. The Jags were taken to overtime by the Raiders and the Cardinals, dude. The Titans are winning. I was trying so hard not to fall down the Cam Ward cliff and be like, he's it. He's the GOAT. He's just looking at these five best throws. Don't worry about it. This is the best game I've seen a quarterback play against the Seahawks this year. It's better than the Stafford's game. It's better than the Baker's game. No, it's not better than Baker's game. Stop. That's really good. No, stop. Stop. Adjusting for receivers available? Are you kidding me?

43:16He's talking about our strip though. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, but that's... I mean, Baker lit them up. Oh, he was so good. I know the receivers matter. The receivers matter, but like, come on. Baker went nuclear on the Seahawks. Like, let's just... Baker had a good game. That was week two. All right, week two doesn't exist anymore. We're at week 12, and it's all about war. He was awesome. Also, the Seahawks were missing the entire secondary in that game, so that matters too. But we're in agreement. It was extremely impressive. It was an awesome game. If I'm a Titans fan up there. And also, on the side of the ball, Titans, with Simmons and Sweat back and playing together now, that run defense is better.

43:47I'm telling you. Titans over Jags. I'm there. I will say, the Jags game against Arizona was so weird. This is the game that broke the Trevor Lawrence believers, man. There's just nothing to do with this. Brenton Strange, though. My baby. It's back. Goodbye. I'm going to take Jacksonville here, but I just, yeah. All right, let's take a quick break. Come back for Ben. Get super hyperbolic about Cam Ward. And let's talk about the aforementioned Seahawks. Get summer going with a firework freeze five-hour energy shot. You get that iconic freezer pop flavor, but with zero sugar and a five-hour energy boost.

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46:18And because Grainger knows safety is always a priority, they're committed to being your partner in protecting both your people and your facilities. call 1-800-GRANGER click granger.com or just stop by alright we're back actually before we do that we'll go Rams Panthers I sent you this list of games before Monday night and I was like Rams Panthers big game and then after Monday football I wrote back I don't want to talk about the Panthers just do the Rams I don't want to talk about them yeah the the Panthers like I hold a candle for them winning this game it's a home game Bryce Jones much better than home in the course of his career Bryce Young just had a bad game, which means he's about to have a good game.

46:58And that's about how that'll go. Yeah, right. The Panthers defense is missing JC Horn. I believe. I mean, he was concussed. And then Trevon Merrick was suspended for whatever the hell happened. It's like, I guess. And that's the thing is this Panthers defense, when they had Christian Roseboom and Trevon Wallace both available, was the worst defense in the league against opposing tight ends, giving up over two yards per route run into tight ends in the passing game. And also, again, that was with Merrick. who you saw Merrick was on a kill for a decent portion of this night. Now, no Merrick, we don't know the status of the linebackers, but it doesn't sound good for getting both of them back healthy.

47:32And you have right again, like no JC Horn. The, the, the only way you win this game is with pass rush of your Carolina. So if you're the Rams, this is a go heavy personnel, go play action. And the main thing for the Rams here is win this game in the first half, right? Like, like, like McVay is on a much better job this year. I think about that Jags London game, I think about the game that they played against the Titans, like actually shutting the door on teams. in years past, I would tell you this is the exact sort of game the Rams lose, right? Where they're traveling to the East Coast. It's a 1 p.m.

47:57start. They're going to be up, you know, 23 to 11 in the first half. They're going to start running the football on every, all three downs, every single drive. All this is going to be a one score game. Like, no, let's, let's, let's, you know, let's, forgive me, but let's step on a throat here, right? Let's, let's, let's be the best team in football if that's what we are. You know, the Panthers are going to be able to run it a little bit, right? You have Ted McMillan against Emmanuel Forbes. That's the sort of receiver with which he tends to struggle to strengthen the size. And so there's options for the Panthers on offense, Just put 28 on the board in the first half and end this game in the first half.

48:26Yeah, I completely believe that Bryce Young could rebound in this one because, I don't know. I'm out. I mean, I'm out on giving takes. I just don't know. Professionally speaking, there are 31 teams in the NFL. I was really impressed by the Panthers defense on Monday. I talked about that briefly with Dominique, but I just with no horn and Merrick, it's just that versus this offense and then the linebackers. Yeah, they're just undermanned. If they had better edge rush presence, then you could get after Stafford, right? Stafford doesn't move very much and they can go pound for pound with the interior, right?

49:04The Rams tend to kill you on the interior. They're so strong there. You have Derek Brown, you have Turk Ward, and they got bodies there, but just the edge rush is just like the Panthers are bottom five and pressure rate in the league still. And so it's like, I just don't think they'll be able to heat Stafford up. And then if you're in zone, Stafford's going to absolutely kill you with rookie linebackers playing in Stafford's eyes. And you can't really man up because you don't have JC. And so the injuries caught him at the worst time. Vikings at Seahawks is me. Max. I'm so excited. Max Brosner gets to start against the aforementioned Seahawks defense.

49:37Not going to talk about that side of the ball. God be with you, sir. But Sam Arnold against Brian Flores is really interesting. So that's my focus here. flores has had some very funny quotes about this i don't know if you caught any of them where no i haven't he speaks he's he's just like i really love sam i'm so proud of him that's not gonna kill him out of him it's so funny um this is a big game for narratives for viking fans because sam is you know somebody that they used to know um but i think flores is going to borrow pretty heavily from, not borrow heavily, but all the Ram stuff that gave Sam trouble, the interior pressure, some of the coverage rotations behind him.

50:24We're going to see that. Wouldn't be surprised if we see some of those cross dog blitzes he used on Jared Goff. So I think this is a real opportunity for Seattle and for Darnold to show two things. One, can you run on them? Green Bay found a way to. really interesting. So Emmanuel Wilson had a great game against the Vikings. The Vikings run defense that is diminished. We talked about this. 28 carries for 107 yards and a 47 % success rate, mostly between the tackles. And it was a lot of duo. He was breaking tackles like crazy. So want to see if Seattle has that capacity because that's, to me, their greatest flaw as a team is you can't run on teams where you should run on them.

51:13And then the interior pressure thing. Like, okay, do we have answers for that for Sam? After the Rams game, I talked about the importance of putting him on the move when teams do that because of the edges that it creates. The Vikings, some of that by design. You know, the Vikings defense is very good against quarterbacks when they roll out because they've got guys who can huck them down. but if they over commit to rushing on the inside there will be opportunities there some nice easy little boots for sam doesn't have to be giant chunk plays just get your tight end out get five seven yards at a time so i think from this is a really important game for sam but it's also a really important game for clint kubiak because from here on out the really good defenses are going to play them a certain way dare them to run the football and find ways to generate interior pressure.

52:05Yeah. So one, one, one running game, like a hundred percent. This is the thing we've been talking about this entire time. Uh, Kenneth Walker has seen his share of the touches and the snaps increase by small increments, but increase over the last three weeks over Zach Charbonnet. It feels like they're finally deciding we're just going to let the Bronco buck. We're going to ride the lightning. We're going to use Kenneth Walker. I think that is without question, the best, the better approach. I like who's Zach Charbonnet is as a player, but it is not a Tyler Alzier level of running back to i think he's still a step below that on so to me like i want this to be a kenneth walker team i like kenneth walker also against the vikings because even when the vikings run defense was better they're a team that gives up home runs because they will call blitzes on first downs and second downs when you call blitz on early downs if that line is stunting the wrong direction if you flip a coin the wrong way then you're right you're clear to that second or third level that's where jameer gives has killed the vikings for so long it's where james Cooks killed the Vikings and Kenneth Walker Jr.

52:59Excuse me, has that sort of a home run potential. So I, I, I very much agree with the, with the running game aspect. The boot aspect is hugely important. So much hay has been made in Seattle of Kubiak's ability to boot Sam out to the left and to the right, to give him reads the Vikings. When they send these pressures, when they send this six man stuff, you're playing with, you know, fire zone rules with hot eyes, right? You're playing with only five guys in zone coverage. And when it's a full field read, there's going to be room. There's going to be space. the processing guys can kill you if you boot and you cut the field in half all of a sudden i can send pressure and i have enough bodies and coverage because i don't have to worry about anything outside of the left hash anymore because you're booting to your right or vice versa so vikings against rollouts this year uh all rollout dropbacks the fourth fourth best defense right by yards per attempt allowed you you do i do not think you have the boot easy button nearly as much as you typically do you're still gonna have like the you know okay quick throw to aj barner that's what i'm talking about i don't think they're gonna be able to generate explosives off of that.

53:54But I'm talking about if Brian Flores is running games up front on early downs, I do think that there's going to be some opportunities there for just like seven yards to A.J. Barnett. Yeah. This might also... It's so funny because the Vikings have given up a lot of explosives and we know what they're capable of in Seattle. But to me, the CS have to come up with a plan for pressure here. He's going to go ham. on early downs. So, yeah. And that's, those are the hardest games to predict because it's either, okay, the Seahawks score 35 points because they hit on three throws or the Seahawks, you know, have two, three and outs and also a sack fumble that returned for a touchdown because the pressures get home, right?

54:40It's a very high variance play. That's what's always been so impressive about Flores. I'm curious to see how much drop eight we get as well. Because to me, like I'm trying to solve the JSN issue. I want to cloud the JSN. And you see Flores a lot when he deals with elite passing games, just be super drop eight heavy and say, we're not going to let you find that sort of a room. So I can see Minnesota, like you're talking about early down pressure. I can see Minnesota potentially zagging where he does zig, swing the whole other direction and spend a lot of time in rush three, rush three, drop eight, rush four, drop seven.

55:12And instead of getting like actual pressure sacks and hits, you just make Sam feel pressure by showing guys the line and then dropping them. And you accelerate his clock about spending the bodies. And this is where, I mean, Darnold's decision-making is just everything in this one, right? Like, when they do drop and play coverage, you really cannot force the football the way he did against the Rams. I mean, obviously, a lot of that had to do with pressure, but he has to be willing to come off of JSN if they overcommit to stopping him as great as he's been. Yeah. We're still waiting for the Rashid Shahid moment, right?

55:48Like you and I, that's well, yeah, right. And it's like, yeah, there's gonna, there's gotta be a game at some point in the regular season where it's like, oh, okay, this usage makes sense. This is how they envision him. I feel like we haven't gotten there yet. The Vikings do not have the corners to handle JSN and Rashid Shahid. They only have scheme here, to be honest. So the question is just, okay, well, if they do that, I think you're gonna see a lot of dime. Can you run the ball? Can you do it? You know, taking Seattle this, in this one, the other side of the ball, which we haven't talked about should be.

56:19If this were just any league average offense for the Vikings, it'd be such a fun game to talk about because like, oh, there's a chance. Now it's going to be a UDFA out of Minnesota making his first career start. You watched the bros for preseason film? It's going to be disgusting. I did not. It's not bad. It's not bad. I mean, this is potentially a disgusting narrative game too, because people are like, see, J.J. McCarthy's got no shot back there. And it's like, yeah, that's the Seahawks defense, y 'all. It is once again a well-timed injury to J.G. McCarthy. Not saying anything about benching, shadow benching, timing, reporting, anything.

56:53All I know is it's a very well-timed injury for J.G. McCarthy. That's it. Cardinals Bucks is you. I assume you're on a CX too. Yes, very much so. Cardinals Bucks is you. Baker got hurt during Sunday night football with the bloodbath against LA, but I think some of the, you know, they were getting killed. So he should play in this game. A must win for Tampa feels like, you know, they've been playing a lot of really, really good teams and losing. What is your key in Cardinals box? The Baker health is like the first key, right? Baker was scrambling more in the past couple of games relative to he had three games in a row where he didn't rush the football once, right?

57:31And then he came back in these last two games, ran the football a bit more successfully. So it seemed like his like some of the lower body issues that he was dealing with were improved. Cardinals are the third worst defense in the league against quarterback scrambles. They tend to be a team that's very like match heavy and your responsibilities and whatever. And so when you get outside of structure, both in terms of throwing the football and then also talking and running, you can get this defense. So to me, like Baker health in terms of is he able to take hits? Are they going to be letting him hold on to the football for an extended period of time?

57:55You kind of need that against this defense. So that's there in the event that there is no Baker and it is Teddy who, you know, like you got thrown out there against a very good defense in a huge hole. But Teddy 100 % looks like a guy who was coached high school football, you know, like a few months ago. It is not an immediate big splash in terms of your backup quarterback. Assuming Teddy's in there and Bucky Irving comes back, which is what Todd Bowles told us to expect, it's how explosive can we be behind the line of scrimmage, right? The number one biggest difference to me outside of the injuries in this Bucs offense from last year to this year has been the efficacy of the screens.

58:28It's been the ability to throw the football, toss it behind the line of scrimmage in a designed fashion, and then be able to generate an explosive out of that. It's just not something you've gotten from Rashad White. You've gotten one or two reps of that from Sean Tucker. but it was formative to this offense under Liam Cohen. It was not just something they did well. It was part of their identity was to be able to get you into screen looks and then throw them because they liked their offensive lineman on the move so much and they really liked Bucky Irving. So Bucky potentially coming back and filling that role against a Cardinals team that is going to play with light personnel, is going to play with deep players in zones and is going to give you free access to those underneath areas.

59:00Really, really, really important. So a Bucky Irving game, a Tez Johnson game. If Teddy Bridgewater is in there, get the ball out fast, create after the catch. Cardinals 31st knee paper play versus screens according to true media. I was like, I bet they suck because I feel like I've seen pop up. Yeah, I'm on Tampa here. If bigger doesn't play, I'll switch to Arizona, but I think he's going to play. The Bucs has such a brutal schedule and such brutal injuries and now it's okay. We get the Cardinals and the Panthers are knocking on the door. I think they're going to be really sharp in this game. I think they're going to win it big.

59:33Flipping it here.

59:37Let's do let's let's both do bills. Steelers. Okay, so I'm on the Steelers here and Aaron Rogers is playing here. I'm getting like I I don't I I really hate this with the bills because it's just the same thing every week but we you know what you have to do against this team. I like it's just I wish I I guess I bring that up because I wish I had something more interesting to say um but then run the ball use motion but the seals are actually a great running team this season and i think all that six offensive line stuff i mean i'll be interested in seeing if the bucks the bills even tried to put a linebacker on the field and then if they do that play action you know it's just like it's just until the bills show me that they can stop decent running teams, I'm not going to say anything different.

1:00:29The Steelers are seventh in run DVOA. The Bills are 31st in run defense. Yes. It's not... What do you want to walk from me? I can't say anything else because it's just so glaring right now. Right. And the funny thing is, is the Bills tried to solve the problem, right? The Bills are playing base 20 % of the time. Actually, excuse me, almost 30 % of the time this year. No, that's wrong. 20 % of the time. I wrote that incorrectly, which is massively up from previous years. Yeah, exactly. There were 4%, 3%, 2 % base over the last three seasons against multiple tight end sets this year. The Bills defense has been 47 % base against 12 and 13 personnel, which is what you're going to get from the Steelers even before they put Steven Anderson on the field and they give you the sixth offensive lineman, right?

1:01:17Now, when facing multiple tight end sets, the bills give up 6.6 yards for gary they give up 1.8 rushing yards over expectation for gary so you could try to solve the issue you know with x's and o's and and getting the seventh big body on the field congratulations it turns out your linebackers are all still 230 pounds turns out all of your defensive tackles are smaller players and at edge like greg rousseau and h.a epinesa like they they have moments of good run defense like big and slow things down and then there's times they just get blown off the ball and they're they're not able to win with the five down front stuff like it just the bodies are failing them where they're trying to make the x's and o's changes the steelers are going to possess the football for 43 minutes in this game can i say something else about i know um because it's obvious it's so obvious here kenny gainwell he's a good back uh eagles fans who are listening to this will know how i felt about kenny gainwell back in the day but he's gotten better you know back in the day i used to hate the kenny gainwell snaps because he was not good he's got much uh he he's also i think against this particular team you want to lean on him here because um what they actually have been leaning on him i feel like the balance of snaps it feels like has been tilting yeah steelers fans are furious about it because jaylen warren never takes a third down snap anymore and they they hate it so much it's like oh gay well he's got utility for him you the the and neither one of those guys is big so you don't want them taking a lot of hits i don't think the the backfield uh you know the timeshare is a bad thing for the Steelers at all.

1:02:43All right. You're, you're, I mean, I imagine you're going to talk about the other side of the ball, which is more interesting. Bill's often still his defense. Yes. The, the key to this one, uh, I was looking through the next gen stats preview packet for this one. The, the, the Josh Allen sack rate has been a big, big issue this year. Something we talked about right before that chiefs game. And he's taking all these sacks on third down. You have a Steelers team that's able to generate a ton of quick pressure, right? Steelers have the fastest time to pressure in the league this year, 2.54 seconds.

1:03:09They have the second fastest time him to sack at 4.28 seconds tj watt alice highsmith who's hopefully going to be back for this game trying to the pot nick herbig who is just every single week is better than he was the week past he might be like the 13th as long as he's not covering 30 yards downfield the way chicago got him to then yes he is amazing so you have edge rushers who can really really really challenge these bills offensive tackles with speed and while deon dawkins and spencer brown are still a very good duo and i trust them both they're both great we saw that the biggest issues that Dawkins can have or players with speed against that in that Texans game and Spencer Brown is obviously playing right now at less than 100 percent if you can pressure Josh quickly you can hide this secondary from him because Josh right now wants to hold on to the football he wants to break tackles he wants to extend plays the the pop gun take with the defense gives me you know trust the offense guy that we saw last year has very much vanished from Josh's play so you you can get pressure on him you can sack him you can get him down you can force bad throws you forced turnovers.

1:04:08If and when Josh does break the pocket or if and when the pocket is clean, Josh is going to light this secondary on fire, right? So this is a very high leverage matchup here in terms of those Steelers edge rushers against those Bills pass rushers. Bill's got to be able to run the football here to slow that pass rush down a little bit. No Derek Harmon in this game who went down with a knee injury. Very, very, very big one because the Bills, you saw it against Houston when they can't stay out of those third and longs, then you can get after those tackles. You need to be able to run it. I think this is a prime spot for Joe Brady to show he's got some fight left in him.

1:04:43I mean, that's overstating it. But obviously, Bill's fans have turned on him hard, and rightfully so, right? I think the Bills' defense has been way too predictable against man coverage. They're running the same stuff. He obviously does not have the greatest weapons at his disposal to work with, despite the addition of Brandon Cooks. But, you know, it feels like against better defenses, he has not found answers the way he did last year. We were complaining about how predictable the Steelers defense is when talking about Chicago. This should not be difficult, especially knowing how well the Bills can hypothetically run the football.

1:05:23The Steelers are going to, I think, sell out. I don't think there was like that misleading Colts game where they kind of shocked shook everybody by saying overplaying the pass on play action and playing more split safety. I don't think they do that here. So I think there'll be opportunity. I think you're going to see a decent amount of man coverage. I do. I think, please let's come up with some answers versus man coverage other than mesh over and over. Cause we just could offensive coordinators can take advantage of this defense. So show us that you're still that guy. The Steelers walked into the season being like, man, with this trio of corners, Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, and Joey Porter Jr., we can play man to anybody.

1:06:07We were all like, really? And they were like, yeah, I know we can. And then they've been not able to play man to anybody just from week one. Like there's Slay is too old, right? Ramsey, that's not where he's at his best now. They moved him to safety, right? Brennan Echols now plays the slot. Joey Porter Jr. has great moments. He also has some rough moments, so on and so forth. They must be looking at this. Bills team being like, finally, the one team we can play man coverage against, right? And so a lot of what Chicago was able to do to them in terms of getting them into zone coverages and then attacking the space, attacking the linebackers, being aggressive with play action, it's just not what the Bills do, right?

1:06:38The Bills put five into the concept and the Bills want the ball into space and get those looks. And it's like, all right, Shakir is going to beat Echols a couple of times, but what is this Gabe Davis? Do I fear as Keon Coleman back in the lineup, is Brandon Cook's general play since he got signed right four days ago like the Steelers are going to get to play their preferred defensive game plan against this one which is bad news for the Bills because okay the man coverage and the press coverage and and the stacked boxes but it's also good news for the Bills because you know what is coming down the mountain what's coming uh did you see the Texans defense talk about how they were surprised by how little the Bills chipped them no maybe it was D 'Amico D 'Amico was like yeah everybody just chips we were like wait they're going five up uh uh so i want to say they are five i want to say they're five in the concept on like over 85 percent of their drop backs right now which is a a college number that is not an NFL number what and herberg are like the most chip or highsmiths or maybe all of them are like the most definitely what is the most chip player in the NFL and gs has those chip stats here um yeah i'm just like come on buffalo like get you know what you're getting here mix let's see some variation um josh allen as a runner i'm taking the bills uh i am betting that we get some offensive innovation here uh but i do think this is going to be close because on the other side of the ball i think we are in agreement that pittsburgh should be able to run it on buffalo love the steelers in this game uh home game tom is a home underdog it's going to be weather too it's expected to be rainy and windy which allen obviously can cut through that but roger still has enough zip to cut through that for sure um the bills want to force you to throw it underneath throw it quick and roger says i was going to do that anyway don't even worry about it.

1:08:17Right. And then it becomes like, we talked a lot about, you know, the potential for the Steelers running game and the additional personnel and like how that might affect the bills, man, when it's the Darnell Washington underneath target, when it's a DK Metcalf slam, this is just not a big and successful tackling bills back seven. Anytime I get the football to any one of my many, many, many offensive pass catcher weapons who weigh more than 215 pounds, right? Johnnie Smith, Pat Friermuth, like this, the Steelers are going to get a lot of stupid, ugly yards after the catch in this one yards after contact across the board i like the Steelers the bills defense is just gonna bounce off darnell washington it's it mount washington man rumbling down down in the rain in the slop it's gonna be a lot of fun i also you know the bills do the josh allen break in case of emergency josh allen draw like josh allen scramble josh allen power i think this is the game where we really see i think josh allen's going to run it like a zillion times in this one.

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1:10:39Coverall delivers long-lasting shine. Visit your O 'Reilly Auto Parts store or OReillyAuto.com. I'll be quick on Bronco's commanders here. Still no Jaden Daniels. Good. Don't play him against his team. Um, Broncos defense is awesome. Obviously. Uh, I'm interested. Yeah. So, so Bo Nix, um, coming off of his best game of the season against Kansas city, his most complete performance. Um, you know, he's had quarters and this and that where he's been good, but, um, has been kind of inconsistent. This commander's defense is gettable in a million different ways. I don't have to, uh, elicit it. Like, you know, they can run on them.

1:11:19They can run off tackle on them. They can throw downfield on them. They can beat them. But, you know, like they've fairly predictable coverages. there's just a million ways that denver can attack them but i do want to note something with with bow since week eight uh so weeks one through seven nix was 25th in average depth of target since week eight he is second he's averaging nearly 10 yards uh franklin sutton mims you can win with these guys throwing downfield and it doesn't have to be a perfectly placed ball I know that's going to sound like Boenick's shape. Sorry, I'm just saying some of them have been good.

1:11:59Sutton in particular, I feel like he tends to throw it on target the most to Cortland Sutton, which Cortland Sutton's good. Sutton makes a lot of throws look on target. I feel like they have some. But Franklin has quietly emerged as a really important downfield threat for them. Really, really important that he continues pushing the ball downfield in my mind. because suddenly you see defenses easing off a little bit. They should be a good running team. They're a good run-blocking team. And I think if I'm to really believe in this team as a playoff threat, I want to not only see that continue, but I would love to go into the playoffs feeling like this team can run the football on some of those AFC teams that we've been talking about.

1:12:43So Bo Nix's willingness to push the ball downfield is very important because it's preventing defenses from overcommitting to the run. Yeah, the number one, I very much agree. The number one thing that I'm watching the Broncos for rest of the season, okay, get the first round by get the home field advantage. But just I need you to have a running back identity and a rotation you trust and a way to run the football you trust. This entire office line isn't paid now right with Luke Wantenberg getting his extension well deserved. so we got yeah we we we got to you know if it's if it's tyler bait it's tyler bait if it's rj harvey it's rj harvey we got to be able to give the ball to somebody right because we don't want we don't want to see bow consistently seeing you know umbrella coverage and shell coverage the the commander's defense yeah like it's it's there's nothing there the only thing that's there is is the ability to generate team pressure and team disruption the best thing you can do against bow right now is to force those throwaways right and and and heat him up and make him feel like he has to make erratic and fast decisions, but they're going to get the ball out of his hands really fast because the commanders just can't chase plays into the sideline.

1:13:40They don't have enough team speed for it. So this is going to be a day where I think the bow air yards is good and is a sign that he's realizing what he needs to do to punish defenses. But this is going to be a game where that nice, safe, warm 25 % screen rate is going to be right there waiting for him if he wants it. That is a very viable way to move the ball against the commanders. He doesn't take sacks too, right? I mean, again, this is defenses. but some of that is the Broncos offensive line, which I'm sure is top three in pass black win without looking. And then some of like, he just doesn't take sacks.

1:14:10So his style of football, the way he's playing is, is could pair really well with this defense, but you, you obviously want to see continued down to down consistency, throwing the ball more than 10 yards. Easy, obviously Broncos pick. Okay. I, you're the same. I know. Raiders chargers. whose offensive line is worse this is this like literally like i've been calling the chargers the worst offensive line of football and then i'll watch the raiders back oh maybe i'm wrong then i'll call the raiders or soft line of football watch the chargers home back oh maybe i'm wrong like it's really tough actually to pick which one is more offensive than the other uh this is you biggest thing for the raiders is can i get a non-max crosby to please stand up along the defensive line right because the browns you saw so much that offensive game plan against the the the Raiders, you saw the Broncos do this successfully was just like, Hey, we're going to get doubles.

1:15:04We're going to boot out to the left. We are going to hide ourselves from Max Crosby. And we just don't think Malcolm Kuntz is going to punish us. We don't think Tyree Wilson is going to punish us the interior. Right. I mean, Crosby right now has a pressure rate of, of only 9.4 % on the season because he just gets so much attention on him on clear passing downs. He's so highly disruptive in the running game, but like only six acts, you know what I'm saying? Like there, there's just, there is not enough gravity in the rush of the pass rush. it's the chargers right it's like okay they're gonna get the help that direction they're gonna give you the multiple tight end sets but herbert's gonna be in the pocket and they're gonna ask you know zion johnson win his one-on-ones and then there's good trevor penning is starting at left tackle now like if you can't win against these guys you can't win so the raiders defense has had tough moments right i still think patrick graham is doing cool and good stuff like there have been games so they've shown up and it's because this is an opportunity for them because they have to be able to get a non-Crosby guy to succeed against this offensive line.

1:15:58Jag showed you, man, if you can start hitting Herbert early and you can get him in a deficit where he has to hold on to the football, it's where we see the worst of Justin Herbert, right? He's had a tremendous season, but it's where we see the worst of him because he very rightfully says, in order to get back in this game, I need to make 20 plus yard throws. So I'm going to hold on to this football and then you can get after this line of pass protection. So the path is there for the Raiders. I think no chip is going to be very nice for the offense because I think everyone's be happy and more pleased with the designs and with the offensive yeah a little dead cow bounce greg olson not that greg olson takes over his offensive core he is that greg olson with the raiders because this is his third time being their offensive coordinator so funny i feel like um so the raiders game i think like seeing i posted i wrote i felt bad because this is like unnecessarily mean but my only post on that game i wrote i know that's not stone forsyth blocking miles here one on one of that final forsyth another x seahawk right been a big year for x seahawks getting put on posters along the line if you're too bad to be a backup on the c box you should not be blocking it'll be very funny if olsen leans like super into max protect in this game and just like completely I mean at some point we should talk about Tim Kelly and what a disaster just that whole offense I'm hiring college people I just I'm fully out on all college individuals for the rest of time I feel like I've talked about this at some point but especially if you don't have a good offensive line I'm not like you can't come in and compensate for what we saw in Seattle last year with Grubb and you're going heavy on the pat you know I was explaining like the Raiders office I was like it's like you took everything bad about the Seahawks offensive made it worse from last year is how it felt watching them.

1:17:45Yeah, Chargers for me, that Raiders offense is just non-functional. I mean, at least the Chargers have receivers, right, too. And Herbert, as long as he doesn't spiral the way you described, I think he should be able to do enough against this Raiders defense, which is, despite the fact that their offensive line is so bad, the Raiders defense has a lot of gettable players behind that pass rush. Okay, finally, Patriots, Giants, Monday Night Football. I am headed to Foxborough on Monday. Fun fact, I've never been to a game of Foxborough in person. Oh, you decided? No, it's going to be like 20 degrees.

1:18:17So no. And I live in LA. Okay. I don't know if this is where you're going with this, but I'm really interested in the absence of Will Campbell here. Yeah. And Jared Wilson, new left guard and left tackle. Important. Because you saw in the Lions game, I mean, the Giants, the Giants pass rush is still really good. Now they're really bad at everything else. the run defense is abysmal, and Detroit, that's why they won. Obviously, Jimmer gives one crazy on them. But these are not the edges you want to be down multiple offensive linemen against. They do have the potential to make this one closer than you'd think.

1:19:02Oh, I'm very worried about the Patriots in this game. I think the Patriots were kind of sleepy coming into that Bengals game, obviously, now they get this one at home. no millen williams is a huge deal for that defense he's been a three down player for them and then no kairos tonga as well potentially we just sort of know what his practice status is but you saw the run defense start to get impacted by their absences and then yeah along the left side of the line man like patriots fans last year like the darian low was like it is like a trigger warning to these folks you know i'm saying like they see him back down warning to me i can you saying that name takes me back to last season and some of those reps right there and like he probably is a deserved backup left tackle in the league, but just for the Patriots specifically and for all those snaps that he had last season, like it was really, really brutal.

1:19:43You also, you go and you look at where the Patriots have been successful running the football. The running to the right side has been much better for them rather than the left where they've had the two rookies. But outside of Will Campbell, right? Those perimeter runs, they've been able to utilize Wilson's speed and Campbell's speed in space. They've been very successful with screens and runs to that left side of the offensive line. You're going to lose that with Brown and Lowe back there. I think this running game starts to become very predictably right-handed. They can't run the ball well between the tackles.

1:20:10The Giants, you've got to be able to run the ball against them. They're such a terrible run defense. We saw what Jameer Gibbs can do against that team. But if I know what side of the field that you want to run the football to because you don't trust the left side of your line, it becomes a lot easier for me to call my blitzes and to get my safety rotated into the box where I want him to be and stymie some of those runs. Then on the other side, Patriots against a scrambling quarterback with the amount of man coverage that they play. playing yeah you've seen the the run defense start to fade a little bit like i said with the defensive tackle injuries giants are very very plucky on that side of the ball my calf is out here calling multiple trick play touchdowns you know i'm saying they will empty the bag on you and so uh i like giants are very alive to me in this one patriots are due for a loss like this is a young team that's winning way way way too much those teams tend to have face plants late in the season this giant team feels right for it yeah henderson has to go crazy here dravian henderson who's kind of like diet gibbs that is that insulting to either i think james cook's is james cook is diet gibbs i think traven henderson is diet james cook is that is that coke zero is that um all three are good players i want to start by saying that uh yeah your your point about the predictability of the run game i think is really important i think josh mcdaniels is going to have to be very creative in generating misdirection given the limitations on the offensive line so that Henderson has a little bit of runway against a very very bad Giants run defense so to me this is a massive Josh McDaniels game can you find a way to run the football given those injuries and take advantage of that weakness and also compensate for what I believe is going to be an massive mismatch on the left side of the offensive line against this pass rush.

1:22:03It's a big Drake May mobility and scramble game too, right? Because you saw as we typically do, that Goff would get a messy pocket and then things would get worse, right? May's best thing that he's done so far this season, in my opinion, is to take a messy pocket and make things get better, right? Whether it's by breaking and actually getting past line scrimmage and tucking and running or just some of these throws that he makes from adjusted platforms or from accelerated pockets or just like, you know, it's like 10 year veteran stuff that he's doing as a second year player. And so to me, like that, there's a lot of air in this giant secondary.

1:22:32And so, okay, like Brian Burns, you get there, you got to get the guy down, you know, Abdul Qar, you get there, you got to get the dude down because May is going to roast you, right? If you give him the extended dropbacks, it's just a pressure and it's not a sack. Your point about the Patriots run defense is really important too, with those injuries, because they were so dominant the first part of the season. And you have seen a lot of cracks started to emerge. And I think, especially with Jackson dark back in the lineup, New York, um, we'll have the ability to run the football on them. And I, yeah, I like what I saw from my Kafka week one, both as a game manager and a play caller.

1:23:03Um, I genuinely believe you saw some improvement there. So I don't love this as a outright, uh, Patriots cover. I'm still going to pick new England here. Um, because I, I, I I've got faith in Josh McDaniels to come up with some of the answers that we've been talking about and take advantage of those weaknesses but i would i would feel a lot more comfortable if those either of those offensive linemen was playing i think this could be really close yeah i'm picking the patriots to win as well i think giants were almost had against the packers almost had it against the lions and now it's a patriots team like they they are knocking on the door i would be very scared of this game if i was a new england fan all right that's it for week 13 um i will be back on tuesday i'll be in bristol no after the foxborough game uh to put out a special episode with dominique foxworth presented by granger we will be in addition to recapping the important monday night game talking about some of the playoff team's weaknesses so i'm looking forward to that with dominique and then of course i'll be previewing week 14 after that ben is there anything that folks should read that you put out lately Column is out More columns will be out There's definitely something else I've been working on lately I should know what it is, shouldn't I?

1:24:20Tune in to find out Tune in to find out We'll be back on the show soon enough Happy Thanksgiving to you To your family To your beautiful babies To everybody who listens To the folks at Omaha Production Who make this show Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Tashin and thankful, of course, for all the listeners, my favorites, my favorite people, especially the commenters who week after week ask, where is Lenny? And accuse this show of being deceitful for not putting Lenny on camera. If you want to see Lenny on camera, subscribe to the show, Amina Kimes show on Instagram because Lenny makes many appearances there.

1:24:59It's Instagram.com slash Amina Kimes. I know he loves the attention that he gets there so much. And that's it for this week. I will see you guys on Tuesday.

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