Donald, Duck! The Loaded Rams, Plus Raiders and Falcons QB Battles

29:29So he was going to play Miami and his old team, and this is kind of his opportunity to, I guess, assert his position. Pennix Jr. is back at practice, which is another reason why it's suddenly a battle again, because there was questions over whether or not he'd even be a practice. He did not play in the preseason. So he played a few drives, three drives against bad Miami. I actually thought it was backups that I was like, actually, that guy might be starting. I don't know. Anyways, they're bad. um and it's like stick check down screen no one's open in his defense fumble another fumble under center check down shallow cross that pits turns into an incredible gain cop his looks amazing by the way quick out quick out aaron i don't like i i it's not all to his fault per se but But I was hoping we would see a little bit more from him in this final, like, audition, if you want to call it that.

30:40I think the Falcons coaches need to ask themselves, when we signed this guy, is this what we were expecting to do with him? Because if the whole point all along was we're going to run this offense that looks like last year's Pittsburgh Steelers, where everything is low average depth of target and we're going to depend on his point guard ability to get it to Kyle Pitts when he knows Kyle Pitts can beat a guy, then I would not overreact to the first two preseason games and I would start with Tua. If the goal was that they thought he could throw deeper and he just can't, then you got to look at starting Penix from the get-go.

31:24I think, look, he can't throw deeper. Sorry. But I think the hope was he would at least throw it over 10 yards. You know what I mean? Like, that's, like, unless Tua proves that he can access that intermediate middle the way he did so consistently in Miami, then what's the point? Because if it's not, if he's not consistently throwing in that 10 to 20 yard range, then you're fully crippling your offense. It depends on Kyle Pitts to break three tackles on every single pass. Well, great. It's a great play. Yeah, and also Bijan is going to be in so many stacked boxes. So I think at this point for Atlanta, my hope, even if Tua is named the starter, which is entirely possible because of the Penix injury factor, I think if you're a Falcons fan, your hope is that Penix returns sooner rather than later and that it's his last chance, right?

32:16I mean, it's Penix's final addition this season. in Atlanta to be considered for the future as well. He has to show that obviously one, he can stay healthy, but also that he can throw over the middle of the field, that he can be more consistent, that he can play under center, like all of these things. You know, you got to see this with Penix as well. There's been flashes, at least with Penix, it's a little bit of a mystery box situation where he's played significantly less football than Tua, but also, you know, he's had good games. He really has. He just has not been consistent at all in Atlanta.

32:49So I think if I'm a Falcons fan, I would rather see that. Let's see what we got in him. I don't – and I don't think we're going to see multiple starts out of Tua. Not multiple starts, probably. I don't think we're going to see at least even half a season out of Tua Tocquevallo. You want to see Penix, but you want to make sure it's a healthy and prepared Penix. Yeah. Right? Because if he comes in and he's not healthy, you get that thing where he – you know, guys depend on body parts because other body parts are hurting and then those body parts get hurt and it's Penix. He's just going to get hurt again.

33:22The other thing I'll say is the Jack Strand story is great, but the history of undrafted rookies playing quarterback in the NFL is very bad. And as much fun as it seems like he is, if you're a Falcons fan, you do not want to be stuck starting him because both Penix and Tua are bad. It really is, though, a reflection of the general quarterback situation situation there that people are so excited about this guy who for all we know is Jeff Toole. He's been more fun to watch. I'll say that in the preseason. But yeah, I think a healthy bit of skepticism is certainly warranted there. All right. So let's move on to a couple of big pieces of preseason news.

34:08Let's start with the Josh Jacobs news in Green Bay. The running back was put on the exempt list. There was more news this weekend. I want to make sure I have all of it here. Adam Schefter, by the way, just posted that Jacobs' initial court appearance is scheduled for November. So sometimes when the league puts guys on the exempt list, it's because they're waiting for the legal process to play out. That's very far out, of course. The NFL does not have to wait for the legal process to be concluded before issuing discipline. So what happened, sorry, pardon me, over the weekend was Jacobs was formally charged with two misdemeanors stemming from a domestic assault allegation.

34:53I want to make sure I have the details right. I always try to get these up here. There's a lot of detail in the actual story. He was charged, pardon me, I said allegation. He was charged with misdemeanor battery and criminal damage to property. There is a video purportedly of him in an altercation with a woman. I think the video is of him destroying her phone, if I understand that. She alleged that he also attacked her in the house. This is a domestic violence case that is playing out right now. So, you know, people keep asking me, like, well, it's the commissioner's exemplist. What does that mean?

35:29And, Aaron, like, we don't know, right? Like, commissioner's exemplist could be a game. It could be an entire season. They could be waiting for the trial date. They could be waiting for him to give them more information. Or the police to give them more information. We just don't know. It's extremely murky with these cases. I mean, the NFL does its own investigations of things. And the NFL's burden of proof is different than the legal burden of proof. It's frustrating to live in the world where I feel like we want the NFL to discipline guys when the legal system doesn't. But they can because the burden of proof is different.

36:06So if they feel that he's done something suspension worthy, they'll hand out a suspension. I will say that it sounds like he did some pretty horrible stuff and that no matter how bad what he did was, if a video comes out, the NFL is going to feel more pressure to give a longer suspension than if a video doesn't come out because videos are just visceral. I always tell people to like to your point about like we're asking the NFL to be the justice system when the justice system isn't. That's not a defense of the perpetrators or even it's not a comment on the NFL. It's more of a comment on the justice system and how hard it is to prosecute some of these cases.

36:47as we that's kind of been something i've really learned from covering sports especially with sexual assault and domestic violence right i mean 27 women accused deshaun watson and deshaun watson is not in prison right so like it's very difficult um so okay now to take it to the packers from a football standpoint again it's hard to talk about because we don't know if jacobs is going to play um or probably when he's going to return if he's going to return we have seen a lot of Marshawn Lloyd, who was the running back they drafted a few years ago, has not played at all because of injuries. The hypothesis of him was that he was going to be a more explosive option for them, but it just hasn't been on the field.

37:29They also, interestingly enough, traded for Caleb Johnson, who was the Steelers' third-round running back, who was kind of put in the doghouse and never got out of it in Pittsburgh. On paper, just thinking back to my draft impressions of Johnson would seem to be a good fit for this zone run game in Green Bay. But I will say, you know, Steelers fans screaming, he didn't look good in Pittsburgh. So those are the options the Packers have right now. What do you think of them? And do you think it's possible that Matt LaFleur changes his at times excruciatingly run heavy approach given that Jacobs isn't out there?

38:05First of all, to remind people, Caleb Johnson is partly was in the dog house, he was the guy who didn't touch the kickoff that Seattle scored because they recovered the kickoff, but he also wasn't running well. I do think that it would make LaFleur be a little bit less run heavy. This is going to be an interesting test for the running backs are fungible idea. I think Jacobs is a little bit better than the sort of standard running back. And I think that these options seem a little bit worse than the standard backup. So, and can Lloyd even stay healthy given the problems that he's had in the past.

38:41It's going to be an interesting one to watch. Look, I know guys want to do their thing, but when I first started doing this 20 years ago, Jim Schwartz, when he was with the Titans, said to me, you need to design your system around your players, not try to fit your players into your system. If you don't have the guys to do a certain thing, don't try to do that thing. So maybe LeFleur needs to be a little bit more passive. I mean, a little bit would be great given that they're so run heavy. You know, I talked about this when I did the NFC North, but like, I was kind of astonished when I saw how run heavy they've been using the next gen stats metrics that account for game situation, formation, situation, like it was kind of jarring to me and jived with game moments where i felt very frustrated at times watching this offense quite frankly i think they have a quarterback who is capable of putting more on his shoulders i guess the question is you know do you have the receivers and that's where like christian watson's health and matthew golden as the x factor kick in like you know we can say well, they should be able to throw more.

39:57They're back. Golden's going to be better. Kraft is back. But obviously that has to materialize. Do you like this Green Bay pass catching group as a whole? I don't remember what FTN said, how they liked the projections for them. We wrote a lot about Golden in the chapter. Brian Knowles wrote a lot about Golden. Historically, if you look at first-round wide receivers who don't play much and aren't injured, it's a really bad group. Usually if you're a first-round wide receiver and you're not injured, you play. But it was a bit of extenuating circumstances because he did have a lot of guys ahead of him.

40:31Right. You know, it's now he does it. Now he's going to play. There's still a lot of promise there. I think Kraft is important. I think Musgrave is important. Luke Musgrave because they want to run to tight end. They want both tight ends to be able to be receivers. And if Musgrave is hurt, even if Kraft is back, they can't quite do that. They traded for this dude from the Rams whose name I'm name I'm forgetting. But he looked good in the preseason. Yeah, he looked good in the preseason, but, you know, I don't know how much you can count on that.

41:02So it doesn't, you know, Reed is good and Watson. Watson was like amazing in DVOA. It was like second in the league or something behind Alec Pierce. But again, it's the sample size because of the injuries. He didn't play a full season. And you and I are both on the Jordan Love is underrated bandwagon. I've listened to a couple of your podcasts where you've talked about Jordan love being underrated and I am with you. He is a quarterback that you can put more on his shoulders and I don't think you should be afraid to do that. All right, let's move on to the other big commissioner's exemplist news.

41:38Oh, the other thing I want to mention about the commissioner's exemplist is players are paid, but they're not allowed to play or practice. So yes, I don't think they're allowed to be in the building, the building. Yeah. So, so the other big news, and I've been talking about this all summer and I feel like it, people slept on it as a possibility, not to like, but I'm just saying it was something that I just kept coming back to when I talked about the Broncos defense and how good they would be. Jonathan Cooper, who is the pass rusher opposite Nick Bonito, but the combination of them has been very difficult because they're so fast.

42:11They both have such unbelievably fast get offs. So he is on the commissioner's exempt list. And the reason why I thought it would be possibility was very serious charges and also multiple incidents this summer he was initially arrested in june uh after police were called to his apartment following an altercation with his girlfriend at the time was charged with domestic violence and criminal mischief uh the charges were upgraded to felony second degree assault by strangulation uh reflecting a report from a nurse that night who said that the woman suffered strangulation with hypoxia. And then he was arrested a second time on June 11th on a charge of violating a protection order.

42:57So this is some pretty serious stuff with Jonathan Cooper. Again, don't know how long he's going to be out. Don't know the least thinking. All of this stuff we said about Josh Jacobs applies. But yeah, this is a very, I mean, charges here are pretty harrowing. So as far as the Packers, the Broncos, pardon me, defense goes, Aaron. Jonah Ellis, Caden Ellis' brother. Christian Ellis' brother too. It's a whole family of NFL players. That's your next man up. He was a third-round draft pick where they were thinking of kicking inside to linebacker at one point. I watched a little bit of him. He played in the preseason, and I thought he looked pretty sharp.

43:41Very different style of player, though. Less explosive. I thought he won with power a few times. I thought he had a pretty good pass rush plan, but undeniably a downgrade here. So I guess my question for you is, do you think the Broncos' defense, is this something that you think is like, oh, this goes from being a top five defense to maybe outside the top five? Is that big of a deal? How do you think Vance Joseph compensates for it? I think if it goes from a top five defense to out of the top five, it's going from like four to six or seven, right? Because I think the top five defenses, I think these are the top five that you had on your show when you did the top 10 defenses, but Seattle, Houston, and the Rams, and then Denver and Philadelphia, and then the rest of the league after that.

44:36So I do feel like if it drops Denver, it doesn't drop them that far. But if Ellis gets hurt or Benito gets hurt, the depth after that is really problematic. It's Kay Robinson, who was a fourth round pick a couple years ago, and then a bunch of undrafted free agent-y guys. And now they have, you know, without Cooper, they're at NFC North levels of questionable edge rusher depth. And so sometimes it's not the first missing guy, it's the second missing guy. Yeah, right. Like Benito is so good, but part of the proposition of Denver was the two of them. Also, like, so Denver was a defense that blitzed a ton, but they were equally good blitzing as they were non-blitzing.

45:21And the fear of them non-blitzing is partially why they were so good. You know what I mean? Like it all kind of fed together. I do think probably it'll turn up the blitz a little bit more, especially week one against Kansas City, a team that struggled with it last year and didn't upgrade a receiver. but um definitely i'm very interested in seeing ellis is someone is like a quietly become a pretty important player for them but i share your agreement or your assessment kind of like the defense not falling off that far they're so talented on the back end you know what i mean like it's it there's this is not a defense where they're the four-man rush covered up problems it was a defense where they were unbelievable because of the combination of the four-man rush and the coverage so like the rams there's questions at the off-ball linebacker a little bit but i mean you know patrick certain is patrick certain yeah um all right so those are the big pieces of nfl news over the weekend i sent you a bunch of other pre-season notes little bits and bots that i thought were kind of interesting one of them was that we got a first look at the mike mcdaniel offense with justin herbert the much vaunted much discussed uh mike mcdaniel offense We hadn't seen Herbert previously in the preseason.

46:32We've been hearing from camp all summer that they're just lighting dudes on fire. Played two drives. First drive, they come out. It's play action pass. Then there's a fumble. Second drive, they come out. And on the second play, Herbert throws a bomb to Quentin Johnston for a touchdown and then calls it a day.

46:55So let's talk about the... I actually think these first two drives were pretty informative about what this is going to look like. In that there'll be a lot of play action? So first of all, none of these plays were 11 personnel. It was 21-12, 13-12. I think that is, we're going to see a lot of fullbacks and a lot of tight ends, right? And we knew that. But the other thing I thought was of interest, Herbert and the pistol. Again, this is Mike McDaniel. This is different. This is so, you know, we already knew Herbert can throw a bomb, but Mike McDaniel's ability to use motions, formations to manipulate defenders is something we all knew we were going to see.

47:38But it was kind of cool to see it, get a little taste of it early on. Yeah. Quinton Johnston beat Cam Lampkin. That's the cornerback, I guess, is a backup cornerback for the Rams. And that part is like we knew that Justin Herbert could throw that. like that's not new i mean as far as like what the mcdaniel offense can do i'm a little more interested to see like him getting guys open in the intermediate range and the run designs and stuff like that like the bomb but you know if he's getting guys open in the intermediate range and the run designs are good that just opens up the bomb more and we know that herbert can hit that thing and johnston can run it so the run game is the is the bigger challenge right because of the injuries on the interior of the offensive line.

48:24And that's where Mike McDaniel has to do the most. So his rushing attack is really predicated on creating explosives outside the tackles, using your fullback, but also your tight ends to do so. And in that process, protecting some of the issues on the interior of the offensive line. So that's what we got to see with LA. Like, can Mike McDaniel cover up for what I anticipate is going to be a pretty inconsistent interior offensive line, particularly early in the season with their center being a rookie, Jake Slaughter, even though he plays center in college. But, yeah, I mean, this is going to look really different.

49:07I mean, the tight ends. Like, just seeing Njoku, Gadsden, and Kolar on the field at the same time and seeing how they were used on the bomb, He had Njoku run a little orbit motion. And I think we talked earlier about what teams can actually pull off 13 personnel. This is one of them. Yes. Yeah, they've got the guys. Although I don't remember who their main fullback is. I know Scott Matlock went on IR. They brought Ingle. Oh, right. They brought in Ingle, right. Because Matlock was the guy last year, but he went on IR. He's one of those guys who's gone from defensive line to fullback and kind of played both, but he's not there.

49:53I like that coaches, when they switch teams, bring their fullbacks like emotional support animals with them, like John Harbaugh bringing Patrick Picard to New York and Mike McDaniel bringing Alec Engle. He's like, he knows what he, you know. And I have to say, like, again, Alec Engle was a really fun player to watch in Miami, and he was very important in that offense. So I think just knowing that this guy does what I want him to do, he knows my offense, I can trust him, is really – I think he's going to be on the field a ton for the Chargers. The point I have been making throughout the preseason, though, is that while subjectively we all believe McDaniel is going to transform this thing and it's going to be awesome, objectively we don't know for sure.

50:35because you often have this where coaches are on new teams and you only really have like one example of what they've done in the past. We only really have Miami. And obviously the more we get away from it, the more we see like the fact that he made Tua look so good is incredible. But guys to have super success in job one don't necessarily have super success in job two. You know, Tony Dungy as an example, when he went to the Colts, their defense still wasn't good for a couple of years. So we think it's going to be awesome, but we shouldn't be surprised if it's a little disappointing. It might take a second, too, because there's a lot of complexity to it.

51:15I think that's I keep saying that about all these new offensive coordinators, especially the offenses that use a lot of pre-snap motion. And but thinking back to last year, a lot of those offenses didn't take a second to get going. Your Chicago's right. Big example. So we'll see. But yeah, I'm still pretty exciting to get a preview of that. And I think Quentin Johnson is going to be a big part of it, too. I mean, it just seems like that guy's really come back from that rookie year. The rookie year, he looked like I was just lost. This is Buster Olney for La Quinta by Wyndham. Just like a good football team sticks to the fundamentals, the best work trips start with a solid routine.

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54:04All right. So the final thing I asked you was if any of the many, many backup quarterbacks you played in the preseason caught your eye or might be of interest. We mentioned Jack Strand. I'll go first here. um and and by the way four teams are keeping four quarterbacks which has to be a record right i did people spell that out i mean it's i don't know if it's a record but that's a lot yeah given how many teams in the last few years have kept two yeah they're hoarding them so the four teams are the stealers i remember because i talked about the series i was like who's the odd man out turns out None of them are the odd man out.

54:45The Falcons, the Eagles, the Vikings. And an asterisk, the Browns. Oh, yeah. The Vikings are the oddest one to me. I don't really understand the point of keeping all three of those backups, especially because we saw Rosemar, Carson Wentz. Carson Wentz makes sense if they wanted a capable backup, but keeping Rosemar and J.J. McCarthy, I don't get it. The Steelers, I think, has a lot to do with the quarterback being 42. The Falcons is a great, you have four quarterbacks, you have none kind of scenario. The Eagles, I think, is just more about their identity as like the quarterback factory and thinking that these guys are going to be trade pieces.

55:25I wouldn't be surprised if they try to move one or two of them. But yeah, kind of weird. So anyways, other than that, though, I'm going to talk about a guy who did make his team and it's not a four quarterback team. And that would be Anthony Richardson, team with three quarterbacks. They also kept Riley Leonard. probably because I went back and I watched all of Richardson's dropbacks in the preseason and it wasn't perfect. He had like a kind of goofy fumble early on. In this last drive, there was one miscommunication. I forget who was to like Treadwell or something. But I have to say, Aaron, I really think he looks like he's developing as a quarterback.

56:07I thought he looked pretty sharp, pretty accurate. The throw to Allen was really nice. He looks settled. He's playing faster. And I'm not here to say Anthony Richardson is going to live up to his fifth overall draft pick or this or that. But I think he might be one of those examples when we talk about the league. Like, who's a guy who might take several years and then suddenly become a viable NFL starter? I thought his tape this preseason looked pretty damn good. when you say playing faster do you mean like not taking sacks that he used to take getting rid of the ball faster no like yes uh decision making yeah because i think when sometimes when i think of playing faster i think of guys who uh who leave the pocket real fast like they give up yeah sorry i mean in a good way yeah um i mean that would be very good for i mean listen the talent was always there that was the whole point of the richardson thing we took him so early because we knew there was a lot of raw talent.

57:01We knew, hey, Shane Stricken is going to teach him. And so if that works out, I mean, since Daniel Jones, you hope can be most of what he was in the first half of last year, but the performance that he had against pressure in the first half of last year is completely unsustainable. So it would be great if Richardson, I will admit, I have not seen a lot of Richardson's preseason stuff, But if he's playing better, that would be really good for the Colts. Well, I think the thing that I feel like is worth mentioning was he was the guy who came in having barely played, right? You remember that when he was drafted.

57:39He had so little experience. Like one year, that was it. And he had such a weird injuries last year. It was like the freak eye thing. And I don't know. I just think, again, I'm not overstating here or saying he's going to be like a top 10 quarterback or whatever. But there's definitely some improvement. And I think that's what you, if you're the Colts, you want to see, you feel good about that. I don't know necessarily what it means, but also Daniel Jones, given his injury history, in addition to what you talked about, there's a good chance they need someone to come in. And I'll just say this, like I would rather have this version of Richardson than like bringing in Phillip Rivers last year.

58:14So are there any backup quarterbacks who caught your eye this preseason that you'd like to highlight? Yeah, Dylan Gabriel. Dylan Gabriel against the Patriots in the third preseason game looked like the best quarterback on the Browns. I realize that's damning with faint praise, but he was making reasonable throws and he was distributing the ball well to open guys. And I don't get the Gabriel thing. I don't understand. You knew when you drafted him what his weaknesses were. The weaknesses were his height and his arm. His weaknesses now are the exact same thing. So why would you spend a third round pick on a guy with those weaknesses if those weaknesses are going to keep him out of a quarterback starting battle with two very bad contenders in it?

59:04Like, why? Like, I understand not wanting Dylan Gabriel to be your starting quarterback, given his weaknesses. But then why are you spending a third-round pick on this guy and then not giving him a chance to be part of the competition? It's just weird to me. Yeah. The other thing about the way they've handled the quarterback position over the last five years, even separate from Watson, makes sense. We talked about this last week, but as much heat as they get just for the Watson trade, they deserve equal amounts of heat for everything they've done since then, not just financially with Watson. But like you said, Gabriel was overdrafted.

59:40People were shocked. People don't get that. When he did the third round, everybody was like, wait, excuse me? Yes, no one thought that made sense. What? And then they took Sanders in the fifth, which again, it's like, why are you stockpiling? You're not in a position to be stockpiling low. It didn't make sense. And yeah, like I watched his start. He's hurt. So it's a back injury, I believe, right? Sure, it's a back injury. Yeah, right. Does it, right? Yeah. And he looks a lot like he did in the preseason last year. So because I was there in Cleveland for that start, he looked a lot sharper than standards in the preseason, which is to say he threw the ball super quickly.

1:00:22There was a willingness to throw over the middle of the field. Limitations, to be sure, in terms of athleticism and arm talent. but he looked like a kind of classic point guard backup type quarterback. And that's what he looked like this week. Like, you know, it's, it's interesting because yeah, I, whenever, when I look at the brows and the way they've handled, like their quarterbacks and Watson being the starter and Sanders and Gabriel, I kind of wonder what Todd Munkin actually thinks. It's so hard to parse out what, which of all of these decisions are his versus the organization, both GM and ownership.

1:00:59It's just very confusing because of all of the mitigating factors. But I do wonder when he takes a step back and he looks at the three of them, which one he thinks he can actually call a functional offense with. Probably none, right? Let's be honest. But like, I do wonder if there isn't a part of him that thinks like, I can make it work with Gabriel, like balls out quick. I could do something with him. I don't know. I feel like there is a desire among a lot of us to blame bad decisions in Cleveland on ownership because we like Todd Bunkin and we like Andrew Barry. And I think Andrew Barry has done a good job with a lot of other positions.

1:01:33He's a good guy and he's an analytics guy like me. It's like you don't want him. Like I don't know whether he's the one who's made the bad decisions about the quarterback position. But I do feel like on the outside a lot of us kind of are stretching for ways to blame this on ownership. Probably agree. When we just don't really – there's not necessarily any evidence that it's ownership's decision either i i don't know where the decision andrew barry's been there forever he got extended he's collecting checks this idea that he's somehow immune from the quarterback decision making in cleveland is insane to me and borderline offensive so i agree with you um all right well that's it for now so i imagine this falcons decision will come in maybe by the time you're listening to this i think generally my feeling is i mean maybe they'll shock us and they'll say if Penix is it, that's like a shock just in terms of like how little he's played.

1:02:27Maybe they need to wait a few days to see if Penix is healthy enough. That's what I'm wondering if they push this as far as they can for that reason. Raiders seems like a done deal. But yeah, I do think I feel comfortable saying we're going to see both 2A and Penix at some point this season. So we shall see. So as a reminder, folks, please check out ftnfantasy.com. Great stats. truly love my stats membership there advanced stats membership but also check out the ftn almanac it is always a great resource that blurb is me telling the truth i've ended so go check that out um and i'll be back later this week to do the team draft with michael jr who's been absolutely smoking me now for the last few years so i really need to lean on this ftn almanac um what's okay hopefully mike doesn't listen to this what's one team so the team draft the way it works Aaron is we're drafting based purely on wins and then playoff.

1:03:21You get bonuses for picking playoff teams in Superbowl. What is one team, like a value team you think I should try to grab? I mean, the team that I'm riding is Houston. Okay. I'm really big on Houston. They're my AFC pick. I think their offense can be above average. And when you put an above average offense, even if it's 12th with that defense, that's the best team in the AFC. All right. I'll try to get Houston. we'll see okay I'll see you guys later this week thank you as always to Kirsten Sebeki Owen Saylor, Jack Foster and Tucker Tushin