Duval in the Family: Previewing the AFC South

30:56Linebacker's a little bit of weakness, but they're really solid it everywhere else. The one area that I really have questions about still is interior defensive line. You know, this team was tied with the Bengals at 31st for among all interior defensive line rotations for pressure rate. They were not good at getting after the passer from the inside. That was actually a big reason why this team was also fourth in stunt rate is because they realized the only way they could make a quarterback uncomfortable up the middle was stunting one of their good edges inside and then getting them matched up on a guard or just trying to find a seam in there and just sending their defensive tackles off to go be like contain rushers so like you're not going to win we're going to let the edges do all the heavy lifting and they still kind of have that problem like eric armstead you know he dealt with an injury last year but even before his injury he was doing nothing as a pass rusher so they still got to figure that out you know the linebacking core isn't bad but it's not as good as it was you know Right, Boyce Gahn, Benji Miller played a little bit last year, yeah.

32:00And then there was the Tyson Campbell trade, which was very, an underrated fleecing. And I kind of understood why they did it, why they traded him to Cleveland, because he's a great man corner. And this is a defense that on first and second down, they're like 90 to 95 % zone, right? They didn't play man until third down. But then we wonder why they couldn't cover anybody on third down. It's like, well, you just traded away your best man corner, and you actually play a lot of man coverage on third down. The guy they traded Tyson Campbell for isn't on the team anymore. Meanwhile, Tyson Campbell's going to thrive in Cleveland.

32:32So again, some of the personnel moves they've made on defense, I wasn't a huge fan of. But it's a good use. I would argue they don't need either of them, though, because if Hunter is a full-time corner, and I talked about him a little bit when I did AFC X-Factors, but I went back and watched his cornerback reps, and I came away really impressed. second half against the Rams, against Devontae Adams, was the game that really sold me on him. I thought, which was a very tricky cover. I thought he was really good. Because he was talented, yeah. Monteric Brown was great. I think maybe a little bit like, okay, was that one, you know, like how do you feel good about that continuing?

33:11I think Jordan Lewis is a really good slot. Antonio Johnson was awesome. Takes on a bigger role this year. So they had really good players. It's a team that got turned the ball over a lot. a defense last year. They were third in turnovers tied with Seattle. But I'm not super worried about regression the way I am with like a Chicago because when you take out turnovers, for comparison sakes, Chicago was 30th in EPA per play and 32nd in success rate. Oh, that good? 30th in yards per play. When you take out turnovers for the Jags, they were 7th in EPA per play, 14th in success rate ninth in yards per play so they're a fundamentally solid team and but i think a lot of that and this is where you do worry a little bit about the loss of lloyd but for me a lot of that just starts with how good they were against the run totally agree with you about interior pressure but um that defensive line was stout dude that was something like the bills game i was thinking like this is a bill's team that's just mashed everybody and they are holding their own like teams were afraid to run the ball on this jacksonville team really good tackling defense So again, Lloyd is a tough loss in that regard because I think he was excellent against the run.

34:21But I do think there's some stability there that'll continue, coupled with the fact that they have a defensive coordinator, Anthony Campanile, who I think is one of the rising guys around the league. Then getting him back for year two was massive. Well, both are coordinators, right? Campanile and Udinski. They both were getting head coach looks, and they lured both of them back. Now, can they do that again after this season? remains to be seen. I'd be willing to bet they got two new coordinators in 2027. But in 2026, the band's back together. They tried to minimize losses in the offseason as much as they could just because of their cap situation.

34:58You lose ETN, you lose Lloyd, but they felt like they had replacements there. It's largely the same team coming back, and this was a 13-win team, and they didn't even really figure it out until week 11. so I can understand why Jags fans have high expectations for this year. I would too. All right, let's take a quick break and come back and talk about a team that I'm very glad I waited to talk about, the Indianapolis Colts. As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Granger has your back. From professional-grade products you can count on to fast, dependable delivery, they're there to help you keep things running smoothly.

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37:39Terms and conditions apply. Alright, we're back it's time to talk about the Colts and Brett I am so glad we are doing this now and not like four weeks ago because we gotta start with the big elephant in the room, well there's kind of two because of Alec Pierce, we'll get to that in a second, but let's start with Daniel Jones listen, I have said this all offseason I have been the notion that Daniel Jones is going to come back week one. Everything's fine. Make a recover from his Achilles. That is unprecedented. I was intensely skeptical. I mean, how could you not be every other, not just quarterback, but like really NFL player who's had this type of injury has a longer timeline or takes time to look comfortable.

38:22So I was skeptical of the contract. I was skeptical of his return. Everyone who's in Indianapolis says he looks fine. and it's not just like colts people right like so solac was just there first thing he told me he was like he looks fine so i saw his report from camp and i was like really but he's not the only one dude i've been asking around like is this for real like i was asking like steven is are they putting him under center is he booting out is he like i want to know right and while i reserve the right like to wait until the season starts or the pre really the season week one against baltimore I want to see this before I'm really comfortable saying he's going to be like he was last year.

39:02It does seem like he's going to give them functional quarterback play. So I think we have to start there, right? Is that shocking to you? Are you a believer? Or do you fear that while he might look fine in August, the significance of his athleticism to his game is something to monitor and that he's going to be a different guy from who he was last season? I mean, it's shocking in the sense that, you know, Achilles injuries used to be like career threatening and now it's a nine month, you know, jaunt through PT. But then you also consider, OK, his father-in-law is Dr. Neil Elitrash, who's one of the premier doctors.

39:39Do you like the like upgraded package that other guys don't? Like, I'm so curious about that. Just shoving Kevlar into his leg. I don't know. It's crazy. It's got to help, right? To have that kind of guy in your family text group where you'd be like, Hey, uh, what should I do about this? It feels sore. Like I just, I've never seen a recovery like this other than like, you may be 2012, Adrian Peterson when he came back from that. Yeah. It's just unreal. All right. Well, so I do think though, the importance of athleticism to his game does matter, right? Because let's talk about the Colts offense last year.

40:17Like, obviously you want it to look like it did weeks one through eight no to i notice i said weeks one through eight because while he continued playing weeks nine through 14 the wheels kind of came off the bus a little bit wheels one through eight he's top three in every single quarterback metric epa per drop back first second in qbr first and success rate third and pressure to sack rate weeks nine through 14 so the stealers game to the jags game 2016 e paper drop back 24th and qbr 22nd success rate and most notably 28th in pressure to sack rate. That to me was the thing that struck me as the most unsustainable was that he was just like unsackable the first eight weeks of the season.

40:54And that's probably the one thing that I'm a little bit concerned about and that I want to see. Like, again, it's one thing for him to move in the open field and to throw from inside the pocket. But is does he have the athleticism to avoid sacks the way he did those first eight weeks of the season? That's something I want to see. I'll give you some context to that right so in the first again 10 to 11 weeks of the season uh and like before he his broken leg which then led to the Achilles people forget like he also broke his leg last year he had multiple injuries yeah right it is extremely tough which you know growing up in in the Giants you kind of have to be um this offense operated differently and that's what what led to a lot of the lack of sacks that you were talking about first down was their go get an explosive down they were by far the most aggressive team on first down in the league they were 31st in run rate you compare that to the texans we just talked about they were uh what second in run rate and 34 oh yeah yeah it was going great for them but specifically with those Colts first downs, almost 35 % of their first downs were converted into another first down because that's when they were really throwing the ball and getting explosives.

42:08But they weren't doing it with like low percentage shots down the boundary to Alec Pierce. This was not an Eagles type situation of like, oh, we're going to trust AJ Brown to go win. No, this was like we're throwing crossing routes. We're throwing digs. We're calling three level flood concepts and trusting him to like layer the ball in between the safety and the corner when they're watching you throw it and you still got to make that throw to the sideline from the far hat like he was doing it and the fact that they were that successful meant that they really didn't need jonathan taylor to be the engine second down was the jonathan taylor down right like if they missed on first down second down was there okay let's get back on track and then third down the reason why he didn't take many sacks on third downs because typically jonathan taylor could get you five yards you get back to third and five and they weren't really stretching the field again they saved that for first down it was hitches it was slants it was screens like they got it with yards after the catch and quick throws and then once they move the chains all right we're going deep again so it was it was kind of an inverted philosophy from a lot of like the you know traditional run run pass type teams that we've seen and that's why they were so good at it but then as the season went on and teams picked up on their run pass rates and you know the type of concepts and formations they like to use on first down teams were like all right we we know what you're doing let's make you play real football here and and things started to slow down plus he broke his leg then he tore his achilles it is a whole thing but you know the first half of the season when they were breaking every kind of offensive record is because they were really catching teams off guard with how aggressive they were on first down they had a 56 play action rate on first down eventually teams realized like Oh, that's fake.

43:51Wait, wait a second. They're not actually going to do it. Which is, by the way, easily first in the NFL. Like, that's an insane number. And the first time I was when, you know, most teams use play action. I think the NFL average is like 40%, so it's always higher. But 56 % is very high. So it's really well said to you to point out why guys were, like, really open and how explosive and effective they were. And I do – I'm interested from the perspective of, like, Shane Steichen, like what's next you know because I thought he had a phenomenal season obviously with Jones I think he's a really good play caller generally and he's done a good job of like trying to find different tweaks to suit the strengths of his different quarterbacks but this is a big year for him like okay you have Daniel Jones last year things started to tail off a little bit and as you described so well what's next for you if Jones shows any limitations if he does show some discomfort moving maybe he's not as comfortable under center can you tweak the offense can you you know hit him with Flashflake play action.

44:53He's a very good RPO designer. What's your RPO game like? He used to be more pistol like with Kirk Cousins when he was coming off the Achilles in Atlanta, right? It's a big one for him. I don't know. And then I think what's tricky is this receiving group is pretty dubious at the moment. So they let Pittman, they traded Pittman and they decided to bet on Alec Pierce, which it's funny. It is really similar. I was thinking about it because I'm doing them next week to, I actually think it's pretty, Pierce is maybe an upgraded version, but it is kind of similar to the Packers letting Romeo Dobbs walk and exciting Christian Watson, like the kind of like thinking like, this is a skill set we can replicate more than this one.

45:32I feel like that's what Indianapolis did. And Alec Pierce is awesome. Alec Pierce is not just a burner. He is big. He makes difficult catches. I think he has more levels to his game to be unlocked. Alec Pierce is not practicing. He's hurt. and that's concerning to me, Brett. I know they're saying he's probably going to be back week one. It is so wild to me that like this whole offseason, I've been like, Daniel Jones, when's he going to play? Is he okay? It's almost like Alec Pierce kind of slipped under the injury radar a bit with a little cleanup surgery while everyone was focused on Daniel Jones.

46:03And now it's August and I'm a little nervous about that. Am I wrong? Like, does that, because the rest of this receiving group, that Alec Pierce. I mean, they got LaClaude Treadwell. They'll be fine. still going did not know that Ashton Doolin, Westbrook Keene, Tyler Warren very good rookie tight end last year Moali Cox I don't know they definitely need Alec Pierce because Alec Pierce has gravity, that's the thing, is Pittman never had the gravity that Alec Pierce does even if Alec Pierce misses time you know, there's the old saying that the best part about being at 90 % is you know you're halfway there and they feel like Alec Pierce gets them to a hundred percent.

46:48Whereas, you know, even if they got 17 games out of Pittman, they would never get above 90. Whereas Alec Pierce can, can break that ceiling and you have to be able to break that ceiling in order to go on a playoff run. Like you can't, you can't expect to get past the division round. If you don't have somebody that can break the game like him, that has the gravitational pull like him that opens up everything else for Tyler Warren and JT and Josh Downs. You can't do it. You just can't. It really is similar to Watson now that I think about it. Because for the Packers, if they can just have Watson and Kraft on the field at the same time, they're so complimentary because of the gravity that Watson creates.

47:28Kraft gets you yards after the catch. You can run the football. Literally the same. Indianapolis, right? If you have Alec Pierce, defenses have to respect him. Yards after the catch opportunities for Warren and Downs. and Taylor as a pass catcher. So it all works if Alec Pierce is out there. And he may be fine. I just really wish, you know, I'd like to see him out there to feel good about his offense as a whole. The line, they did lose Brayden Smith, placing him with Jalen Traffis. Otherwise. Freak of nature athlete, by the way. Jalen Traffis. I was about to ask you high on him. I know you're a draft guy.

48:05Oh, he's one of these like 10.0 RAS types, like absolute freak of nature. And they have a farm system going there with Colts offensive life. And like, what's upon a time, Bernhard Reimann was another one of these like, OK, high upside athletes that we're going to take on day two. Jalen Travis was a day three pick early day three, but he could have gone on day two. It's at Iowa State. And, you know, you're looking at Gonsalves, you're looking at Bordellini, obviously Quentin Nelson. So like it's just athletes, athletes, athletes. So they have a really, really good farm system there when it comes to offensive line development.

48:37And at this point, I just kind of give them the benefit of the doubt. Yeah, I mean, Bernard, people were really skeptical of him. I remember that draft feeling like, really? And he's been awesome. Bortolini was great last year. I remember talking about him with Jason Kelsey in the Monday Night Football truck, and he was so impressed by him. Left side, you feel really good about for sure. Right side, a little bit more questionable. This defense was pretty average last year. Like, no matter how you slice it, they were basically average. Some changes. Youth. Looks like the rookies are playing, are starting.

49:16C.J. Allen at linebacker. Zyra Franklin out. A.J. Halsey. Box safety next to Cam Bynum. Otherwise, it's largely the same. Obviously, you've got Sauce Gardner returning from injury. Oh, Kenny Moore is gone, so I think Wally's going to play nickel for them. Yeah. I know. I think where I land is like I just – I have a hard time figuring out – seeing them rise into the top 10, but I also conversely have a hard time seeing them – I don't think they're a bottom unit. I just think they're kind of going to end up in the middle again. Stylistically speaking, it's a very man-heavy defense. They were eighth in man covers last year, and they might have been higher if Sauce played more than four games for them.

50:03It's actually kind of tragic last year. It's for a lot of the trade. Yeah, it's like, let's play more man coverage. Let's do more crazy blisses. But as far as like man cover corner duos, how many would you take before Sauce and Charverius Ward? Maybe two? Maybe? Christian Zahn. Sorry, you weren't asking me. I mean, no, it's a real question, right? No, no, no, yeah, yeah. I mean, Ward, if he can, he had a difficult season. He's had, I believe, concussions too in addition to off the field. I mean, difficult circumstances for him. Yeah, like if they're healthy, you feel good about it. I would feel better about it if I thought they got more pressure.

50:45Well, that's the crux of it, right? Yeah, that's the crux of it. And that's a good way to position this. Like what does it take for this defense to go from 15th to 10th? I'll tell you right now. It's Layutu Latu making the leap. He's like just outside. He's just been outside. If Brett, if you told me, if I tell you Laitulatu becomes a 14 sack guy, then I'm like, all right, cool. This is a top 10 defense. Maybe even, and they might not even be 10, right? They might be higher than that. Because if you're looking at this pass rush last year, if you're looking at true four-man rushes, like not a simulated pressure, like true drop back passes with a four-man rush, go hunt.

51:25They were 21st in pressure rate on those. if you added a single rusher to that and made it a five-man pressure right so called a fire zone called a man blitz whatever you want to call it five rushers or more they were 16th so they became average only when they weren't just relying on their front four that cannot continue for a team that likes to be as man heavy as they are like their ideal style here is we're going to play cover one whenever we want to if we want to get them into a long down and distance we know Lou and Aroma likes to call like, you know, different variations of cover two and trick quarterbacks to making really risky throws into tight windows and, you know, get your hands on the ball, all that kind of stuff.

52:06But they can't, they can't play that much man coverage if they have to always send a fifth guy to help out the pass rush. And on top of that, I also kind of worry about their ability to do man coverage outside of those two corners because Akeem Davis Gaither, not a great coverage linebacker, CJ Allen, they drafted him in the second round. But quite frankly, I see some movement, what's the word, restrictions? I don't think he's a super fluid athlete in space. And so I don't know. I did not. There's things that I really like about his game. So I think he can become an NFL starter for sure, like a quality starter.

52:47But he's not rangy. He is not flying sideline to Godheadless. I found him on tape to be very intelligent, but he didn't play super fast is how I would put it. Him versus Bachel Tutton in space. Who's winning? Yeah, I have hesitation there. I do like Halsey a lot. But he's a fun player. But the issue is if you're playing man coverage, everybody's in man. It's not just your corners. And so it's like, okay, cool. You have sauce. You have Tremorius. I'm going to pick on everybody else. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if we're else. even the corners questionable. I don't know if they're healthy. Yeah. If they're healthy.

53:27Yeah. I, and then it's right. I mean, Buckner is still great, but another year and getting older, coming off a back injury. Yeah. And again, opposite lot to who's getting that for the quarterback, man. They didn't get anything from Twimalu. They brought Arden key. Who's like always consistently decent, but I just have trouble seriously. And how this unit makes sleep. So there's a way for this, to be excellent, but I'll ask a real question to you. If the Colts hit every single green light that we talked about, if the Jags hit every single green light that we talked about, if the Texans hit every single green light, which one do you actually feel best about?

54:09The Texans. Or the Jags. Probably. I'll decide between them at the end, but it's one of those two teams. Yeah, I mean, if you call me the Colts were the same defense or offense they were through the first eight weeks of the season, I'll say the Colts, but I just don't Like that was so insane. Like for the reasons you laid out, the first down numbers, the numbers under pressure. It was just so, it doesn't feel sustainable. If you've shopped online, chances are you've bought from a business powered by Shopify. You know that purple shop pay button you see at checkout? The one that makes buying so incredibly easy?

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57:13We'll be right back. markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see callsheet.com slash regulatory. All right, let's wrap with the Titans. This was fun to revisit because I had to go back and watch Camden, right? I watched three games this weekend. The Seahawks game, I posted, I felt bad because I ended up posting clips of Leonard Williams just demolishing Peter Skranzi. Who was, by the way, great. He was their best one. clearly but there's a clip I posted it where Leonard like hits him with the arm over and it looks like you know the meme like I fell to my knees in a Walmart like that's what Peter Scrums he looks like in this clip like he's praying in a Walmart um anyways but but the thing I want I bring that up to say uh Cam Ward was awesome in that game uh despite facing you know the first or second best defense in the NFL making plays uh like a really impressive performance to me uh kansas city he was really impressive san francisco a little bit less so my general notes to him on him after we're watching are the arm talent is obvious he can throw from odd platforms he can zip it into tight windows he can side arm it sometimes ill-advised throws across his body he can do it all he is tough he will hang in there versus pressure um however he misses some open opportunities he whether it's not seeing them or hunting for big plays a lot of the titans offensive struggles are on the receiving group in the scheme which we will get to but a lot of them were on cam ward as well there are moments where he misses check downs where he backs up against pressure pressure instead of stepping up in the pocket doesn't hit guys on time rookie stuff the conclusion i came to generally was watching him and there's no stats we can get into that that are good it felt like watching caleb williams his first year like that's not i'm not saying they're the same quarterback but i had the same i those were a lot of similar notes to what i would have had about caleb caleb got the ben jocelyn glow up do we think cam wards get a similar club or at least anything close to it and so i i realized i just hit you two things which is what do you think of ward and what do you think of the situation start with ward and then we'll get to this year's situation.

59:40I mean, you brought up Caleb and I, it's such an interesting comp because he had the second most just flat out misses, right? Off-target incompletions. He had the second most in the league last year at 81. Caleb was the only one who quote unquote beat that, which is not a good thing you want to beat somebody in. But 51 of those 81 off-target incompletions were without pressure, right? He just flat out had accuracy issues. And then you add in 35 pass breakups on top of that that were due to kind of shaky ball placement, you have 116 pass attempts that could have been complete that weren't complete.

1:00:18How do you weigh that against the absolutely seismic moments of brilliance, which we saw arguably every single week? Like, you see it with him. You know, there's some rookie quarterbacks where it's like, okay, yeah, there's bad numbers, but then you also don't see the highs. You see the highs with Cam Ward. It makes you believe. Like, Brian Dable wouldn't have gone there if he didn't believe in the kid. Can I say one thing I really, yeah, sorry, I don't know if you keep going. I'll tell you what I, you triggered a thought, but keep going. And so, you know, we talk about the, the, the Ben Johnson glow up.

1:00:47Is that possible for Cam Ward? I do because I believe in Brian Dable as a coach. I've seen him coach his ass off before, and I don't think he would have gone there if he didn't believe he could get the most out of him. You know, the, the offensive line, I still have major questions about tackle, but you know, they were 19th in pressure rate allowed last year. It's not like they were the worst offensive line. They just had Dan Moore at left tackle, which wasn't great. But like, okay, we can fix that. They bring in new receivers. Ideally, the defense will be better. There's a lot of new blood there.

1:01:17Like, I can see a world where this is a stepping stone season where you just cut down on those misses a little bit and you substitute them with those moments of brilliance. Just a 5 % swing in both directions. It's like Caleb. Yes, just like Caleb. Except, you know, there was such a huge glow up because of all the turnover there. Ben Johnson, and I know. The thing I wanted to say about Cam Moore, you triggered another thought in me that I felt watching him, just watching those later games. Holy mental toughness, dude. I mean, some of the missed drops and Titans receivers, some of the stuff they were doing, I would have done war crimes back then.

1:02:00I'm just saying, but I never once saw this dude blaming people. and he could have he could have he actually got better as the season went along he really did I mean those two performances I mentioned later in the season you know still took too many sacks but you saw him cut down on it a little bit and he would even get better in games like there was I think it was a San Francisco game I was watching where like he missed an out he didn't throw it on time two plays later he hits it and I'm watching that thinking like this is like you can see him learning as these games are progressing as the season is progressing so I would be optimistic based on that.

1:02:36I think there's one thing I've learned about covering quarterbacks or one thing that I have learned is you want to bet on guys who consistently get better. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or whatever. So I thought that was incredibly impressive from him because the circumstances sure as hell didn't get better around him. There's parallel storylines that we're going to track this season, which is how much better is Cam Ward under Brian Dable? And then the other side of the Brian Dable coin is Jackson Dart, who now has Brian Callahan. And so we're going to see the direct impact. Exactly. Who'd you rather have?

1:03:09I'd rather have Dable. I'd rather have Dable too, especially because Callahan's the pass game coordinator. The offensive coordinator is Matt Nagy. And then the other, you know, two members that are going to be in charge with development of Jackson Dart are Greg Roman and John Harbaugh. Do you feel good about that giant staff? I don't, you know, compared to the Titans staff. Yeah. Yeah, listen, Gable's not been perfect, and I don't think he's like a quarterback whisperer, per se, because of the Josh Allen. But he has, one thing I like about him, I think I said this when they made the hire, not only has he actually found ways to improve quarterback play at his various spots, he has called very different offenses for different quarterbacks and found things that they're good at.

1:03:59now maybe is that a little bit too much smash quarterback run perhaps although I will say there were a lot of times watching cam ward where I was like run run and he just wouldn't yeah he was fourth in pressure drop backs but only 15th in scrambles it's like buddy you could have run a lot more than you did yards on the field and he's an athlete I'm like like it felt like he was trying too hard to like I'm playing quarterback on the throat I feel um but yeah I do think Dable and I and this is the most important thing they really did add you know some difference makers at receiver. I can quibble with their build and the fact that they just brought in all giants and jets and we'll get to the defense and Salah and stuff.

1:04:34But like one of Robinson is an innings eater as we call it. I mean, that dude will catch, you know, a hundred passes, like a million passes all for five yards a piece. Yep. Hey, and Carnell Tate, um, solves a lot of their problems. Gravity explosive, catching the football really well, big plays downfield. And then suddenly it's like, okay, cool. We'll see if we get something out of Ridley. There's no longer pressure on A.U. Manor and Chimera DK to be like legit dudes. So I do feel a lot better about it. I mean, the receiving group was so bad last year. Hold on, I pulled a stat. Okay, I don't even know how this is possible.

1:05:21NGS has this thing called end zone catch rate. Basically, it's what it sounds like. The average is 37%. Do you know what the Titans catch rate was in the end zone? Judging by the cutups I've watched of cam, something under 20, 14%. How is that possible? They also have a stat catch rate over expected, which is basically really trying to, or yes, isolate like the receiver, like, okay, is the ball on target? Where's the defender? Whatever. Dead last negative 12%. That means Titans receivers caught, Nearly 13 % fewer passes than they should have. Cam Ward was actually ninth in precision pass rate on 20-yard plus passes.

1:06:06You wouldn't know it from the results. I'm sorry. Carmel Tate catches the ball. That's why they drafted him. I don't think he's actually a great separator. I didn't have him as anything close to the fourth best player in this class. He catches the ball. I'll give him that. He catches the ball. And by God, that's what they needed. And even though I don't think he's a great separator against man coverage, when the average man coverage you're going to face throughout an NFL season is like 25%, you need somebody who's going to be in the right place at the right time against zone coverage and just catch the ball.

1:06:40It felt like Titans receivers just dipping their hands in Vaseline last year. Like at least he's going to do his job. I had no problem. I'm like, you know what? If you're going to pay a premium for a guy who catches the ball so that your young quarterback has some help, it's fine. I know folks are divided on him. Can he be a one? Especially after watching this Titans off his back. I'm like, please, thank you. Can we just start with getting a real two? Yeah. But no, I do think the combination of him and Robinson, it makes sense, right? Like from a spatial perspective. I do worry about the offensive line.

1:07:11You alluded to this. It's never good when you see Volson's name. I thought they were going to bring back Zitler. Apparently that's not happening. So Austin Schlottman at center. Sure. Not great. Still not. Schlotman knows the system, right? That's why Brian didn't want him. So he can call protections. Pat Coogan is like a 40-year-old in a 20-something's body. I can't believe he doesn't have three kids and a mortgage and a union job. I talked to him at the combine. I was like, you're 20-something? It's unreal. He's going to play forever, whether it's at center or at guard. He's a pro's pro already.

1:07:45I actually had him walk me through Indiana's prep schedule for a game. and he had it in his head in 30-minute increments for an entire week laid out. He's going to be fine. Fingers crossed. Run game was not great last year. A lot of that was because of the offensive line. You know how bad the Niners' run defense was? They made the Titans' run game look competent. That was one. I was watching them being like, geez, they were ripping. They were just like, oh my God, we're ripping off seven-yard runs against this team. anyways yeah so look I am not like obviously you need to see a leap from Ward but I do think he deserves a lot of grace for how bad the circumstances were you know I think they legitimately have improved I also think his defense could be better you know I a lot of it starts with Robert Sala who has turned around defenses every time man like he did it in San Francisco He did.

1:08:46I mean, the greatest compliment I can give Robert Sala is, did you watch the Jets defense after he was fired? Oh, they were like terrible. That was. There's decline and then there's falling off a cliff like that was pretty remarkable how much worse they got after he left. One of my favorite stats is like the post Quinn and Williams trade, too, about how the Cowboys run defense success rate allowed went from like bottom three to top three. and the Jets went from top three to bottom three. Like, Quinnen was obviously amazing for the Jets, but even his impact was nothing compared to Rob Sala. Like, I think they fired him, what, week four of that year?

1:09:27And they were 2-2 and then immediately fell off a cliff once he left. And then he started going to consult for, I think, Green Bay, and their defense got better once he got there. And then San Francisco, obviously, massive injuries, but at least I know I just crapped all over them, but that wasn't about Robert Sala. Okay, so he joins the Titans defense that was statistically very bad last year, but very, you know, traded away players, had some injuries, and they did the Friends of Robert Sala and Brian D 'Abel program as well on this side of the ball. They brought in the perpetually underrated Jonathan Franklin Myers to go up next to the perpetual superstar, Jeff Simmons.

1:10:11Jeff Simmons stats, by the way. First and pass rush win. Yeah. 64 pressures. He was, he was, so he was first in pass rush win. No other Titans defensive tackle ranked inside the top 50. Franklin Myers was 25th. So that's going to be nice. Uh, they added Jermaine Johnson. Uh, they drafted Keldrick Falk of Solomon Thomas, another former friend. Uh, you can talk about Falk in a second. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on him. Linebacker, uh, Cedric Gray solid against the run. Cody Barton. They drafted Anthony Hill, Jr. Cornerback completely remade the room part because they, sent everyone away so now you have a former friend cordell flott and then from the saints elante taylor uh it looks like at safety kevin winston jr kelvin winston jr is going to start next to money hooker uh let's start the pass rush because this was you know a hot topic was like should they draft arville re should they draft one like ruben bain jr oh no we're going to help our young quarterback cool then we're going to wait we're going to take keldrick falk do you feel like they've done enough to make this front competent and do you think like robert But Sala, as many have been saying, could get, I don't even know how you can get another level out of Jeff Simmons from last year, but could he get another level out of Jeff Simmons?

1:11:22It would be hard to, but Sala's coming from a defense of the 49ers where, again, he did what he could. He was down to linebacker six there, and their whole defensive line was banged up. But the Niners' defensive tackle rotation was one of five teams in the NFL, the Chargers, the Jags, the Lions, the Bengals, the Niners, that were all outproduced by Jeff Simmons himself. When it comes to interior pass rush, it's a whole new planet that he's on this year. Having that kind of guy. Did he? He's he's ridiculous. I know the Titans don't have any primetime games this year. Just flip on a Titans game during the season to watch Jeff Simmons.

1:11:59He's unbelievable. And Franklin Myers is pretty exciting too. Like getting to play next to like a real defensive lineman. Plus Jermaine Johnson and, you know, Keldrick Falk. I actually liked Keldrick Falk a lot as a prospect. A lot of people were down on him because they saw the pass rush win rate and everything like that. And it was low production as far as pass rush goes. But you see the talent. He's a great run stopper. He was good in the room at Auburn. And they believe in their ability to develop him. Very similar to a young Trayvon Walker with Jacksonville. Had a lot of similar concerns, even though he was even more of an athlete than Folk was.

1:12:39And Folk's a great athlete. Enormous state. and enormous guy. Enormous, absolutely gigantic. But these are coaches that trust themselves to get the best out of somebody because they think that, okay, we're getting a 21-year-old here. Is this the best he's ever going to be? Probably not. But we think we can get him to as close as the best as we can. And his best, by the way, is probably a Pro Bowl password. It's like Rashawn Gary coming out of Michigan. Rashawn Gary coming out of Michigan and didn't really know what he was doing either. But a few years later, he was awesome. I look at this build and I think, okay, defensive tackle is the strength and you added to that.

1:13:20But that's a successful model in today's NFL where your tackles are your superstars and you just have depth and competent pass rushers and you don't necessarily have, you know, like a Miles, like obviously not as a Miles Garrett, but like a top 10 edge rusher. That's fine. If you have like two really, one amazing and one really good defensive tackle, that's enough like we see a lot of defenses Seattle where that's the build and it works um but it Kansas City for a long time yeah there's a lot of examples you do need competent play on the back end I think for that to work as well and one thing that's interesting though now that I think about it is like this was like Jeff's like are they going to play like a lot of light boxes because Jeff Simmons like are they is he actually going to be able to get after it Are they going to rotate him?

1:14:10I don't know. There's some questions, Mark. But anyways, the secondary, I think, took a big step towards competence. Flott and Taylor are NFL players. I don't think either are like, yeah. Taylor was quite good last year. But at minimum, I think you can get average cornerback play out of those two. Last year, it was Daryl Baker Jr., Jalen Armour Davis, and Marcus Harris. What percentage of the audience at home knows who those people are? Is it single digits? Because I would say so. And their play didn't warrant anybody really paying attention to the Titans secondary last year. They were terrible.

1:14:49They could not hold up in man coverage whatsoever. They played so much zone because they couldn't hold up in man coverage. And now they actually have real corners that gives them options that they can actually play man here. And as much as Sala loves quarters and quarter, quarter, half and all that kind of stuff, even within Sala's zone coverage structures there's usually one guy that has to play man on the back side you know so they can you know push all of their zone strength over to the other side you have to have at least one guy that can do the man coverage duty within a zone coverage structure they didn't have anybody that could do that last year they were objectively one of the five worst corner groups in the NFL and they probably weren't the fifth worst it was probably even lower than that so the the fact that they upgraded that much both at corner and in terms of pass rush it's possible this defense goes from as bad as they were to what like 15th somewhere around there i think average is realistic i think they're still a year away from like they need i think another edge rusher linebacker let's see what hill jr bring i liked him a lot um but year one We'll see how much he plays, what he brings.

1:16:02Kevin Winston Jr., nickel, safety, there's still holes, but they plugged a lot of them from last season. I think average is completely realistic. Is average realistic for the offense? I think it's more likely the defense is average than the offense is average. If the offense can be 20th and the defense is 15th, this team can win six games and at least feel good about it going into a loaded 20-27 draft. The goal of the season is not to win the division. The goal is to get development out of Cam Ward. I'm not going to say to evaluate Cam Ward because I think it's way too early. Just imagine this scenario.

1:16:40They win six games. They're picking like 11th. Four quarterbacks go in the first four picks. They're in range for Jeremiah Smith. They could trade up for Jeremiah Smith. Reunite. I don't know. There's the Dolphins, dude. You have to hope that the Dolphins prioritize literally anything else. I asked him to name two Dolphins receivers. And then I was like, you know what? Actually, let me pivot. If you went to any city outside of Miami. And then I was like, you know what? I'm pivoting again in the city of Miami. Can you find people who know two Dolphins receivers? Billy Gill just texted me. I only had two at the top of my head.

1:17:20And one of them was Tutu Owl. Yeah. I think... In sum for the Tennessee Titans, there is improvement on the roster. I think just the goal for the season is just like, let's just get cam. Let's get the defense closer to average. And let's see if we can develop cam board a little bit in better circumstances. All right. The time has come to rank these teams. Okay. So I have gone back and forth in the top two.

1:17:56i really like the jags man i probably really wants to pull the trigger on jacksonville because i'm such a believer in the coaching staff right now and you made a point like that might not be the same coaching staff next year but this year it is and they're really good and you know we alluded to kaylee being hamstrung but i'm not as sold on him however houston does have the most dominant group of anything in football maybe right now. I did defend C.J. Stroud. I'm going to have both the Jags and the Texans making the playoffs, but I'm going to go Texans, Jags, Colts, Titans. I want to do the Jags, but I'm close.

1:18:37I'm so optimistic about them. The Texans' defense is too good. I'll go Texans at the top as well.

1:18:49Really? Yeah, I'll go Jags. Don't do it. Yeah, come on. I'll go Jags number two. Yeah. But I feel like Jags and Colts are going to be literally tied for the same record. It's going to come down to tiebreakers. So I'll go Texans winning the division, barely, by like a game. And then I'll go Jags, Colts, Titans. Yeah. The real question to me is, do three teams make the playoffs? I don't think so. I got Texans, Jags. it's gonna be real fight it's gonna be a real fight afc is so stacked though right like if you've got new england buffalo baltimore cincinnati question that's four already out of two am i the weird one by the way for thinking the bangles win the north i got the ravens well spoiler alert because that's the last team i'm doing oh i mean there's a lot of bangles optimism a lot of bangles optimism on the old television uh broncos chargers chiefs maybe if they're back from the dead maybe yeah afc is very i because i've been doing these power rankings pods the nfc is super top heavy and the afc has like a very large like upper middle class is the conclusion i came to but then you take all the afc teams and you throw them against the best NFC teams.

1:20:12And you're like, do any of them beat the best NFC teams? It's tough. Yeah. All right. That was a ton of fun. I love this division. I'm excited about it. Week one, Texans Bills. Let's freaking go. I'm so excited for that game. Oh, my God. That makes one of us. I'm nervous. Dude, I is such a great strength on strength. No, it's Sunday morning. I don't know why I thought that was Sunday night. Such a great strength on strength matchup. Iron sharpens iron. Let's see it. I can't wait. Brett Coleman does amazing jobs. As you said, he's covering, he's doing previews on every single team that are an hour, which is incredible.

1:20:50You did an hour on the Arizona Cardinals, brother. We got the Ravens coming out today. It's an hour and 40 minutes long. You said you got the Cincinnati. Now you're making me nervous. I think I'm too high in the Ravens defense. I just think Minter is the truth. He's incredible. And if they get anything out of trey hendrickson there's no way their pass rush could be worse than it was last day come on all right well i'm doing the nfc north next week oh also programming note uh power hours are done but i am sticking with two times a week monday before the preseason starts monday uh ben and i are going to do awards predictions mvp coach of the year all of that so check that out on monday then i will return with the nfc north uh for our next division we have two division previews next so stay tuned for that AFC North is last because of the quarterback competition uh that's a preview of yours I like to check out an hour on the Browns quarterback competition um thank you for everybody for tuning in my other show with David and Jr viewer discretion is back if you want to listen to us talk about uh the Odyssey I am power ranking because I just love power ranking all of the performances in the Odyssey that comes out later this week we are also recapping the show Furious have you checked that out yet?

1:22:08it's on Hulu oh I saw the preview it looked really interesting really good and then later we'll be back with Lanterns as well which I'm really excited about so check that out check out Brett's YouTube thank you as always to everyone at Omaha Productions who makes this pod Kirsten Specky Owen Saylor Jack Foster we're out

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