Here’s to You Bijan Robinson: A Week 6 Preview

20:38Ollie Connolly:I think it's a work in progress. I think they'll stay week to week. They started deploying this two-back stuff, right, with two true running backs. They were kind of two-back centric to open, but with a tight end operating as a fullback, and they still love to get to that stuff. But now it's really a bit blurrier with more of the jet motion stuff and two true running backs on there, and you get the jet motion game where you might have the give or that guy might become a blocker. So I think that stuff is kind of new. The real thing is moving just where Diggs is in the formation. I think as he got...

21:04Ollie Connolly:And they accepted how healthy he was. And the chemistry him and Drake may have. One of the most automatic things on third down now is a back shoulder throw made to Stefan Diggs. That's one of the most automatic plays we have in the league at the moment. So I just think him getting healthier, them quickly recognizing the chemistry, saying let's play him inside more, has unlocked more of an efficient, easy button third down approach for them. Yeah, I think it cannot be overstated the impact that Diggs breaking out has. looking like he did in the first half of last season, to be frank, has on this offense.

21:38I also really love the connection, which goes back to last season with Hunter Henry and the way that they use him, especially out of their play-action stuff. He's just a really, he's like the perpetually, like, 11th, 10th best tight end in the league or something. I don't know. You know what I mean? Like, he's always, it's like, oh, yeah, Hunter Henry. He's good. He's never, no one ever thinks of him as being great. And, you know, you know what I mean? But like he's just really reliable and he wins downfield too. It's not just short stuff and they're too tight end stuff is interesting. I do think they're going to win in part because on the other side of the ball, like I think I mentioned this.

22:20Actually, maybe I didn't get into it after their win. You know, Rattler's been solid all year and is definitely not the reason why this team, the Saints team, was losing games. And I think that was a really good contrast against Dart. Because he looked so much more pro-ready in that game, candidly, right? And he was just playing solid football. He's got the one deep ball to Shahid. I think the problem is this Pats defense is really also starting to shape into form. And they're really good against the run. And they've got the backs, the corners to hold up when they allocate more to stopping the run as they did against Buffalo.

22:57So, yeah, I'm going Pats in this one. And I'm excited about the trajectory of the team. I imagine Pats for you as well.

23:05Ollie Connolly:Yeah, Pats for me as well. I think that the Saints would have to get real movement in the run game inside. And the Patriots are just one of the best teams in the league that runs between the tackles. They are just crushing everything inside. Tonga. Tonga, absolutely. I love them. If it's third and long, that's when I think Rattler, who's played really composed and has been some really high level. But you just know in there, there is Rattler thinking, I could go and get myself into an MVP conversation if I wrote five. They've absolutely heaters down the field against the Patriots. So if he's in third and one consistently, I just think he's going to cough the ball up too much.

23:38Chargers-Dolphins is me. A game that two years ago would have been a massive... It was, you remember? The great Herbert Tua debates. Feels like a far cry from those halcyon days. I wrote for my key, Which team can make the quarterback hold on to the football for longer than two and a half seconds? That's kind of the ballgame here. I was looking at FTM Fantasy has filters where you can filter out first read throws, which is great. And Tua is dead last in EPA per drop back when you force him past his first read. We know the story there. But Herbert is 30th. And the reason for that is very different.

24:23I mean, it's not that Miami has a good offensive line, but the quarterback is different. This has not been the case with him in the past. The problem is it's a jailbreak, right, like every other play right now. So that's kind of the ballgame for Miami. If they can get that pass rush going, if they can actually make him hold on to the football, if they don't get diced up by quick game. No Hampton in this game is also huge because the Chargers, in addition to running out of offensive linemen, are now running out of running backs. this is every chargers game is now like a battle of survival i guess i don't even know what to call it's really unpleasant to be honest i like really hate it yeah it's tough to watch and jim

25:03Ollie Connolly:harbour must just be devastated because this is exactly the kind of game he wants a defensive front who cannot play against the run i will just run the ball 45 times down their throat there's no one i feel more sorry for in the league right now the dolphins linebackers who snap to snap are all in the right positions and doing their jobs and they are getting de-alignment benched into their chests five yards off the ball every single snap every single snap there's nothing those guys can do um but yeah i think it comes down to can the dolphins get any kind of juice from the front those guys have just been so poor all season they invested all the money in that the back crazy regression disaster the the only way to get around it is to have constant pressure up front and those guys just haven't shown up all season.

25:46So it looks like Hassan Haskins, who's gigantic, by the way. I walked by him at Hampton. Even Hampton didn't look that big. And Hampton's a big back. But yeah, there's an opportunity for them to run the ball. I do think that. God, who am I going to take in this one? the other thing man the chargers defense looked so gassed against washington i was watching them thinking like they this team is this defense is tired of staying on the field and they were just getting out leveraged in the run game dare i take miami here they just got they just lost to carolina

26:30Ollie Connolly:an embarrassing thing i'm going to take charges you mentioned the first read thing and it's now even more perilous with Tua because before to take the first read away, he would play top down because they were so scared of Tyreek. So it'd be these really exaggerated rotations to kind of cap Tyreek up top, then try and get down into the alley to take what Tua wanted to do away. Now it's always just a heavy front. One guy drops out and Tua panics. He's the least adjustable quarterback and adaptable quarterback in the league. And that is everything Jesse Minter wants to do. So I'm going to have a heavy front.

27:02Ollie Connolly:Someone's going to bounce out. The first level will just be evaporated. and then there's going to be some depth on the back end. If the guy tries to move to the second and third read, that's just not to his game. So I just have a hard time seeing Miami really moving the ball to keep the defense on the field to get gassed. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm going to go with the Chargers here. But how I feel about his team is just really hard to, yeah, it's just such a bummer. But I will, I do think that defense can have a bounce-back performance. All right. Speaking of bounce-back performances, is you talked about Bryce Young on the second straight week or was it the previous week where he was really, really bad the first half and then good in the second half?

27:42I think it's been two straight weeks, right?

27:45Ollie Connolly:It's been basically every game where at some point you go to yourself, are they going to bench him? And then all of a sudden he starts playing pretty well. So he's going up against the Cowboys, which is a get-right... Who has the get-right opportunity? It's the Cowboys against the Panthers in Carolina. you can pick your key and we can get it i don't know if it's not bryce we can get into it he is can anybody cobble together some kind of pass rush right is the you talk about games this almost smells to me like the cowboys might have some degree of effectiveness just by happenstance and the talent on the other side of the ball are up front in the pass rush and then we spend a week being like hey could this defense get to a level good enough because of how effective the offense is they just torch the Panthers all over the place that they could be a sneaky, frisky playoff team.

28:34Ollie Connolly:And the following week we find out, well, that was just a one-off. It was the Panthers. Yeah. The Dak Prescott MVP campaign could take another hit, another boost, could get another boost this week. The thing about Carolina, it's interesting too. There's no pass rush. The pass defense is miserable. they've actually been okay stop better at stopping the run this year than last year was like one of the worst run defenses of all time but um and maybe some of that has to do maybe those and I have to dig into that some of those numbers might be inflated from the the leads that they're giving up in the first half and teams just kind of going conservative against them but the Cowboys offense just looks like a wagon right now I mean like they they're I mean I don't know when CeeDee I don't think he's back in this game is he i don't believe so i mean that offense has the best rhythm and flow of any offensive league of tying every single piece of it together run game play action rpo drop back deep shot it is just such a symphony with dak and he has done a really good job of balancing between wanting to play dak ball where it's like i sit back there and i drain the play clock and i figure out the rotation and i know who to attack and just like letting it rip and it's no huddle or it's like modulating the tempo.

29:53Ollie Connolly:They're in and out of the huddle really fast. He is just in peak, peak Dak levels right now. Blending, knowing when, hey, let's just get the play cold and go. And then if I need to, it's third down. I will take my time and survey the defense, find the right answer and get the ball out quickly. Who is the worst pass defense? Probably the Panthers, which is ludicrous because Eberflue's... Is it? Is it? They're both bottom four? The Panthers four-man pass rush group has a 17 % pressure rate. That's the one I've been able to find going back 15 years for a five-game sample size. That, to me, is more impactful.

30:35Ollie Connolly:Even playing your corners 12 yards off the ball with no pressure, which I just don't know why Eberflus continues to run out of defense like that. The Cowboys aren't quite that bad. If you can't impact the puck against Dak Prescott, he's going to both. He's going to dice them up, yeah. Yeah, I'm taking Dallas in this one, but the Dallas defense always makes me nervous about every game, I guess, but I assume you are too. Yes, taking Dallas. Real quick on Bryce Young before we move on because I haven't talked about him very much this season except for just saying that it's been an insane roller coaster.

31:08You've written a lot about him and schematically what you think they should do with him. To your eyes, what do you think has been the biggest issue this year?

31:17Ollie Connolly:He just doesn't see the field well at all and then he gambles when he can't see it. And you just can't play that way in the league. And I just have got to the point where what is like the super strength? What is the thing that is really an A-plus trait that he has? And I thought it was his toughness and his smarts. And the smarts is just not quite there. There's so many gamble throws of just hoping for the best, putting the ball in poor spots. And I did think Canales did him a slight disservice to open the season. We talked about this, I think, a year ago, when they got into empty last season.

31:46Ollie Connolly:That was actually the second most efficient explosive play in the league. It was Alec Anderson was number one. Bryce Young and Empty was number two. That has just vanished to open the season. They really cranked it back up the last two weeks, but it's usually because they're behind the game and it's a pass-obvious situation. So then they start going. Bryce plays a little better, but he's against beat-up defenses or bad defenses. So the numbers get slightly inflated. And it's also just when it's in kind of a regular neutral game state, it's been nowhere near as effective this year as in the past.

32:12Ollie Connolly:I think it's just as simple as Dave Canals wants to play bully ball football with a power thrower. It would be Russell Wilson. It would be Baker Mayfield. It would be Sam Donald. And that's just not who Bryce is. He's a point guard who needs to be an empty, what, 30, 35 % of the time. I don't know if any staff in the modern game is going to accept that as their quarterback. Yeah, I also don't know if there's like a good, I'm thinking around the league, like who is the quarterback who's winning in the way that he would win? And obviously, you know, Burrow plays like a sort of modified version of that.

32:47Ollie Connolly:But truly, the only one I can think of is you'd have to have two really good Titans and you'd have to look like the 2011 Patriots, where it's really tempo based, empty, but it's matchup based because you've got two dominant Titans. That's like a heavy lift to ask an organization to just put on the field. The 2011 Patriots offense in our quarterback will be good. That's not really how it works for the franchise guys. Brown Steelers I assume you're on Cowboys too Brown Steelers is me so this is another one where I actually have the same key for both teams which is who's going to tackle better I really think this sounds so basic but you have two quarterbacks who kind of stylistically want to do the same I think both of these teams offenses want to do the same thing now that Dylan Gabriel is under center for Cleveland is you know they want to run the football and it was a really encouraging rushing performance um we talked about the six offensive linemen thing happening around the NFL last week they really had a lot of success getting into those six offensive linemen looks and running the football in Minnesota um Cleveland has an excellent run defense so I think that they're going to present more issues for the Steelers in that regard but we know what Aaron Rodgers wants to do who wants to quit game them to death and And that's not kind of what Cleveland wants to do with Gabriel.

34:10So, you know, I think about like DK Metcalf cracking up that big explosive play. You were at the game, right? With Greg? I think I saw four of you guys.

34:17Ollie Connolly:I thought that one, the Dublin one. I wish I had the atmosphere. Oh, wait, you were at the London one, of course, not that one. But anyways, you know, thinking about DK Metcalf just like running, you know, I feel like the Browns defense has been vulnerable to giving up yards after the catch. The corners have been weird, like kind of inconsistent this year. You know, like Denzel Ward sneakily also has had his ups and downs. So I think just defensively on both sides, which of these defense can stop, you know, five yard plays from turning into eight, nine, 10 yard plays is going to be the difference in this.

34:53Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I agree with you. And I think they will come from probably those heavy personnel groupings. And Rodgers is just the master. It looks like it's a big presentation. The huddle, you throw all your big guys on the field, then I'm just going to move the pieces around to get any kind of leverage advantage I want. You mentioned just like, okay, we're going to get big, but I'll move DK inside. And it's just, you know, a three-yard slam, but that could be 11, 12 yards for us based on how the Browns play. I do think that Schwestinger will help cover a lot of that up. They really do just say you stand in the middle of the field and rally and fly to the ball.

35:24Ollie Connolly:I'm not sure he's missed a tackle. He did get de-cleated by Carson Wentz in the Vikings game. then the very like next series he came back and crushed carson wentz and he had to go and get his shoulder checked out at halftime so i think swessinger can cover an awful lot of that up to me this just feels like it's going to be a car crash at the line of scrimmage everyone in 12 personnel 21 personnel you mentioned sending an extra lineman in there and the steelers send the extra o lineman and darnell washington which is effectively two extra o line seven oh yeah yeah so i just think it's going to be an absolute car crash and is there which back can kind of create best after contact.

36:00Ollie Connolly:I just don't know right now if you were doing a power ranking of which running backs you trusted to turn out yards after contact. Quinton John Jenkins would be pretty high up the list. Yeah. I like the Browns run game better in this one. I like the Browns defense better in this one. But I think that the Steelers, you know, they're like obviously the quarterback to me is I have more faith in him in terms of the point guarding. And then also the Steelers defense has played better the last two weeks, right? You know, now that we know Pat's offense is a juggernaut, I mean, the reality is they actually gave up a lot of yards to the Pat's offense.

36:39They just kept turning it over. So I don't know if that's sustainable. And then Carson Wentz just, you know, held onto the football and did Carson Wentz things. So I don't know if I'm entirely buying the improvement of the Steelers' defense. Screw it. I'm going to take the Browns in this. I'm sure they're the underdogs. I'm sure they are. I'm going to take them. I think this Browns defense is going to give Rodgers a lot of problems.

37:01Ollie Connolly:I agree with you on that. I think the Steelers are just a really middling team, and the conference is just really bad, and they're going to win 10 games here with a negative point differential, but they've got to lose some games at some point. So I'll go with you. I'll take the Browns. I was really impressed with Dylan Gabriel in his debut. I just thought the calmness. Yeah, I thought he looked good. The rhythm, the efficiency, the mobility in the pocket. The Steelers, it just feels like every single play has to be perfect to get eight yards. And then maybe, just maybe every once in a while, Someone will miss a tackle, it will go for 40.

37:30Ollie Connolly:And I just think the Browns can be a little bit more sustainable on offense than they can get huge takeaways and turnovers on defense. I'd like to see Kevin Stefanski put a little bit more faith in Gabriel. Like at the end of the game, running three times in a row into stacked boxes, I understand Gabriel had, like, it feels like a play-action pass would have, you know, I was really shocked. It was bizarre to me. Same thing with Kyla. So if these guys can move, it's the most easy thing. You may as well run a boot to open up with. It's the same impact as running the ball, unless the guy puts the ball in there.

38:04Ollie Connolly:You're probably only going to pick up two yards and keep the clock running anyway. All right. One more game, and then we'll take a break. This is a good one. Seahawks-Jags. Weird one. I'm on the Jags, because this is in Jacksonville. You're on Seattle. You go first. What is your key for this game? My key is how often can the Jags make Sam Donald make second reaction throws? Because he has been absolute money this season. I just would never have expected. And they offensively, as you know better than anyone, it's not always being clicking. The run game isn't quite there. The seeds are something impressive there, but it hasn't quite leveled up in the way you would expect.

38:50Ollie Connolly:I think if you just think it's a turn the back chunk play action offense, there's some of that in there. But a lot of Donald's best throws are just gripping it and ripping it and often evicting pressure. And I just don't know, you know, is that going to be something that holds up for 18 weeks over the season? Or at some point, I mean, he is planting it between double coverage onto a guy's face mask 40 yards down the field. It is extraordinary to watch, but is that really going to hang up for 18 games in the season? If the Jags can really get into some of the sim pressure world they're doing, they're running an awful lot of creepers this season from three safety sets.

39:21Ollie Connolly:It can really blur the middle of the field when you have those guys kind of bouncing in and out in that kind of vertical plate. And if you can take that away from Darnold and force him to start working to the outside, that's when I think you're getting some pressure home on it.

39:38Yeah, what Sam Darnold is, not in my wildest dreams. I think what's the important thing, too, to note about him is he's playing significantly better than he did. I don't know if people appreciate the—because I think last year Minnesota was winning games, but the offense was actually quite uneven. And I know everyone just kind of blurs it all together. And we remember him at the end when the pass protection fell apart. And then before that, everyone's like, no, he was like the MVP. No, he wasn't. Sorry. Like, he wasn't as good as he has been early on in Seattle. pushing the ball downfield, obvious dropback situations, deadly accurate and aggressive, playing even making good throws under pressure, which has been in the past his issue.

40:27It's like him, Baker, and Daniel Jones all sold their soul to the devil at the same time. I do not like what the hell is happening. It's crazy. It's like that. But we'll get to Baker. But yeah, he's been unreal. And I think you're right about the Jags. The Jags defense to me is a little fool's goldy. Like there's definitely still issues there. You saw that in the quarterbacks, I think.

40:51Ollie Connolly:Yeah, the Chiefs having kind of their best offensive performance for two seasons, but then falling short. And it being like a 90-yard... Start turning it over. A 99-yard pick, which was a really outstanding play for from Campanelli. Like I said earlier, it's really hard when you're a scheme-based turnover team. Like it's not because you've got studs. It's because we're fooling people over and over again. It's just hard to fool these guys every single week for 17 straight games. Sorry, it's been a non-secretor. I googled CeeDee Lamb's availability because I wanted to see when he was going to get back.

41:25And the first thing that came up was an article about statewide sheep producers at their annual convention. Eat lamb, wear wool. Okay, Jags side. So this is an interesting one. This is a little bit of styles make fights because the Jags offense so far this season has been very good running the football. Fourth in e-paper play and just okay passing. They've been very inconsistent 23rd. So 23rd running or probably fourth running, 23rd passing. The CX defense has been fourth against the run and 23rd against the pass. I enjoyed that perfect symmetry. That's all. I just want to bring that up. But it also is very important in this game.

42:08because the Jags just lost Brenton Strange for a few games. He has been a big part of that rushing attack, in my estimation. And they're coming off a game where they weren't able to run the ball the way they like to. Kansas City kind of sold out against it a decent amount. So Trevor Lawrence had to actually beat them to the air downfield and made some clutch plays. And I think he's kind of going to have to do it again against Seattle. A little apprehensive talking about this defense because they were so injured. A big part of the reason those numbers are so bad is the injuries that they've had in the secondary.

42:41And I'm pulling up the injury report as we speak because it's so the last week against Tampa. And it's like this kind of got lost in some of the conversation around the game. The entire Seahawks secondary was injured. Not saying that the Bucs offense wasn't awesome, but it was really, really rough last week. And so I think you're going to have to keep a close eye on the availability of Witherspoon and Love. Yeah, because somebody is going to be, you know, they're not going to be at full health. And that strikes me as the best way to attack this team.

43:17Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I agree with you. You kind of pushed past, I think, Brenton Strange being out there. It is shocking how much of their offense designed around Brenton Strange. Yeah, yeah. Going away, he has Brian Thomas Jr. They drafted Travis Hunter. that they traded a first round pick to go get him. He's like, but my bubble screen package is built around the second year tight end at Penn State. It's like, really, bro? That's like what you want it to be. But it's been effective, particularly you mentioned his impact in the run game. I think the run game is a little bit peculiar because they do really creative stuff in how they draw up the run game and how it moves on and flows into the play and stuff.

43:51Ollie Connolly:But Lawrence isn't the best turn the back play action thrower. So they haven't really taken advantage of that. And if you go and dig through some of the granular figures, their running backs only hit the design gap on gap scheme runs 51 % of the time. That's one of the lowest rates on record ever. Yet they churn out yardage on those runs. The backs make things happen and they don't hit the gap it's designed to go to. So it's a little bit like it feels like the line's doing that. And I think Robert Hainsey is one of my hot takes of the season. Robert Hainsey's been the best center in football. He's been so good.

44:23I actually think the whole offensive line I'm kind of shocked by how good they look on some of the gap every time I watch these gap highlights I'm like a different Jack like Anton Harrison half the time is making like an amazing black down feel sorry but Hainsey's been really good yeah

44:40Ollie Connolly:we are in the middle of a center crisis as a league but Hainsey is like saving us and yeah they get into 12 and they mash people the thing they just haven't got the reason why sometimes I think the offense feels stilton and it's not just that lawrence is a high variance player anyway is that just the how the coach wants to attack teams i just don't think of the skills of lawrence naturally he wants to see the field being the credit around he's a huge first read guy a predefined reads guy pre-snab whereas cohen wants to be this really creative run game you start biting on the different moving pieces in the backfield and all of a sudden the ball's going over your head to the thomas junior jami brown or travis hunter so there's still this like push pull tension i think between how they want to play.

45:22Ollie Connolly:And if the Seahawks are healthy, it's not even to me just the talent, the Seahawks secondary. It's like they can't get to the full menu of all the rotation and creativity just throwing dudes out there. You just have to sit back and say, we're playing man coverage. And can any of those guys cover Brian Thomas Jr. one-on-one if everyone's hurt? I don't think they can. Hainsey, by the way, hurt last week. Hamstring checking. Looks like he didn't practice yesterday. So that's something to monitor. It's also a big deal because I think the Seahawks' best pass rushers are on the interior, so that matters.

45:57Jack's offensive line, sneaky surprise of the season for me. I thought they would be bad, and they've been far from it. I mean, the Chiefs' pass rush is no great shakes, and that's a whole separate conversation. But week after week, I'm watching them thinking, like, wow. and it's some of it's the same players Little and Harrison have both been like pretty damn good and I'm taking the Seahawks in this one though I just feel like coming off of the high of the Chiefs win and the Jags I like them and I think they've got a good big deep decent change they're definitely in the playoff contention but some of the stuff's a little fluky you know a lot of turnovers

46:40Ollie Connolly:I agree with you I think the thing that isn't fluky the offensive line is mauling people whether that can you know not i'm not sure they don't allow any free runners through so they're about to face the team who wants to do some of the creative sim stuff they're not quite as sim based with mcdonald as mcdonald was when he was in baltimore he's kind of built a new defense in seattle because the front is so good he doesn't need to do all the fun and games when you just got great players up front but when they do get to that stuff which is really how they try and generate the takeaways is okay now we're going with the disguise hit to try and take the ball away the The Jags just don't fall for that stuff.

47:13Ollie Connolly:Haynes has been so good at figuring out who's coming, who's not, and getting everyone right. If he does miss the game, it's like as big an injury as if like Brian Thomas Jr. or someone was on the injury report. He really makes everything roll up front.

47:28Is he after Jags?

47:31Ollie Connolly:It's a tough one. This is a really close one. I like the idea of, I certainly don't trust Trevor Lawrence to have like an all-time great moment for him and then kind of like be able to keep his pulse steady. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'll do it just to be hooked on that one. And I think he'll be feeling himself going into this one. It's just coming from Jacksonville. I love the vibes there right now, and I want to pick the Jags a lot. I just, you know, just a little bit of a letdown there. All right, let's take a quick break, come back, and get to some pretty good games on the back end. Need parts fast?

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50:37I want to know how that went down, by the way. I mean, Hortiz is the Chargers GMs from Baltimore. So obviously, you know, there's familiarity there. But like, that's just weird. And it's a really funny trade. Okay, sorry. So for those who missed it, the Ravens, let me get the details of this right, traded Adafi Owe for Aloha Gilman. I think there might have been a pick involved, but.

50:57Ollie Connolly:Crown pick thrown in. Yeah. Okay, so Owe, and this is notable because I think this is a huge reason why they did this trade, is playing on his fifth-year option. And the Ravens obviously don't want to pay him, right? So that's part of this, right? No doubt. You're trading the guy who's on the fifth-year option. You don't want to pay him. You're trying to get something in return. You get a good football player. And Aloha Gilman is a really good football player, which is what makes this— They're both kind of like not stars, but just good players is how I would characterize both of them. From the Ravens' point of view, you look at this and you're like, but you guys aren't rushing the quarterback at all.

51:40And you just added C.J. Gardner-Johnson. So what are you just like stockpile? Are you going to run like a, you know, four safety defense? Ollie, maybe. Yes. Like, I literally, I'm looking at this and thinking they have more faith in their ability to scheme up pressure than they do to cover up everything that's been going wrong on the back end. But I also wonder what it means for the deployment of Kyle Hamilton. This is really fascinating. We can get to the Chargers side of it, but a really fascinating move from the Ravens' perspective to me.

52:16Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I think O.A. is being somewhat effective as a pass rusher. He is brutal in the run game. So they just can't put him on the field anymore in the run game. He's in the wrong place the entire time. He freelances constantly. So you just couldn't have him on the field anymore. And I'm with you. I think that the deal is to just try and move Kyle Hamilton close to the line of scrimmage. The best blitzing tandem in the league, two guys working together, the most effective, most productive tandem was Nnamdi Madabweke and Kyle Hamilton last season. And then they had to move Hamilton back. in the second half of the season, because everything else was falling apart.

52:48Ollie Connolly:It's like, let's put our best player in the weakest spot. We can't communicate. We can't line up. So they move Hamilton back. They once again can't communicate, can't line up, but they also now can't pressure the passer. So they need to move Hamilton further back down to fix the problem. And so you go and get a safety, you can really play on the shelf and just play on the half field and trigger downhill from there, which is where Gilman's at his best. Comes from a system with the same verbiage. They've had brutal communication issues all season. they changed the communication system mid-season last year when they brought DMPs back by moving Hamilton back and kind of switched up the assignments I'm guessing the thinking is we'll let Gilman handle the back end we'll move Kyle back down when he's healthy and he can handle the front for us so I think they're trying to do a kind of two-for-one deal of fixing the communication and getting their best closer to the front where he can play in the nickel and impact the pressure game a bit more.

53:40I feel bad for Starks, but he's just clearly in over his head at the moment. You see, you know, and this is not, I mean, when they drafted him, they had our Darius Washington and Kyle Elson on the field. It was a completely different vision for this defense. But yeah, this is, this feels like a stop the bleeding move and hope, pray that Mike Green turns into something. Kyle Van Nooy's back. I don't know. I saw some folks saying, oh, the Ravens punting on the season. I don't think that's it at I think it's a combination of the specific issues they've had on defense and then not wanting to pay Adafi away.

54:13On the blip side, so Cleo Mack's been out. That's obviously a big factor in this one. They don't feel like they're getting enough rush. They probably feel good enough about their run defense otherwise to compensate for what you talked about. And this is a vote of confidence in Elijah Molden on the back end, right, at safety, who's been a good player for them. But I was a little surprised. like I maybe this says that Mac is more hurt than we know that would be my one reservation for judging too much

54:47Ollie Connolly:yeah that would be my guess they just don't have enough speed off the ball up front and Ivoe gives you anything and I don't think that he gives you all that much honestly I think it's a lot of inflated fake production but he does have speed off the ball when they want to be in that kind of sim pressure world where they're showing pressure and they bail out of it The only way to get that stuff to sing, unless you have like a superstar like Garrett or Parsons or someone, it needs pure speed. You need to put fear in linemen that if this guy comes, I have to guess correctly that he's on his way. And Owe will at least give them speed.

55:18Ollie Connolly:So it could be one where he's not the most impactful one-on-one rusher. But just because of the skill set, it helps some of the other guys when they're sending some pressure from deep, whether it's Derwin or it's the linebackers flying downhill. Because you have to account for his speed off the ball. It gives better angles for everyone else. Real quickly, sorry, Rams fans, if you're listening to this and you're like, why are you talking about us at all? Your offense should be able to dominate this. I don't even like just slam duo down their throats and your guys can be wide open. I don't even know what is there to talk about.

55:47They can't stop them. This iteration of the Ravens. Yeah. If Lamar was playing in this one, we could at least make a case for a shootout. That's kind of going to be the thing with Lamar moving forward. It sounds like we'll see. I don't want to be too, but everything I'm reading suggests that he's not...

56:10Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I don't know if they force him back before the bye with the schedule as it is after the bye. It'd be interesting to see if... You know, one thing that did strike me... I mean, the Texans did not have to sell out to stop the run because that defense is so good. And obviously, we're not concerned about Cooper Rush through the air. I'll be interested in seeing structurally how the Rams defense approaches that. right? Because they do kind of have to put in a little bit of work to stop the run against this group. So, you know, it's certainly an easier opponent than Houston, man. Like what they're doing on defense every week is so crazy.

56:49It's crazy.

56:50Ollie Connolly:They get to play defense a way no one else in the league can. Yeah, just straight up. Jalen Petrie down there as a linebacker. Everyone is searching. Could we please play that way? Robert Sala is banging his head against the wall being like, why can't I play that way? You don't have Jalen Petrie. He solves every answer. They're really, really talented. All right. I assume we're both on the Rams here. Heavily. Okay. Titans, Raiders. Woof, woof. This is you. I already have done my talked about Geno struggling. Are you on the Cam Ward train? I am on the camp war train and I was not a believer pre-drafter in the preseason but I'm now trying to gather as much stock as possible as people aren't shooting into the Titans

57:45What do you have for a key in this game? Which team are you focused on?

57:49Ollie Connolly:I'm focusing on the Raiders I know you said you've talked about Gino but we have to have a further intervention at this point because the struggles are so bizarre with him where he's a completely different player. And I don't know if the marriage with Chip is off, but he is skipping reads. These picks he's throwing are not overly aggressive, overly ambitious, Gino trying to fit into tight windows. He is skipping reads. He is looking things off constantly. He goes from one, jumps to four, and then tries to get to a check down with two guys covering the check down. And it's just like, whatever, I'll try and throw it there.

58:29Ollie Connolly:They're really lazy picks. And I've never, ever associated Gino with being a lazy decision maker or deciding when to let go of the ball. So I don't know if it's just like, it's so brutal behind the scenes. The run game is so bad that he's just almost pseudo-checked out on running this offense. But he just isn't playing anything like he's ever played before. This isn't like, people who thought Gino wasn't very good are right. He was excellent in Seattle. He's playing a completely different style of quarterback here in Vegas. Yeah, it's bizarre to watch, frankly. And obviously it's a terrible situation.

59:07The line, no Bowers. I mean, I think he might play in this one. He didn't play last week. But if people have asked me, is there any hope that the Raiders offense can turn it around? Yeah, because something broke his brain. Yeah, I think what we saw week one is entirely possible that they can get back to that. I think the offensive line is way worse than I thought. But I'm also not going to lie and say I have high hopes of that because we're in week six now and it's been multiple games now with just terrible decision-making on the part of the quarterback. That said, the Titans are not a good football team Holes all around this defense Offensively They don't have skill players that scare you So I think I'm going to take the Raiders here I think The Raiders' run defense should be able to shut them down And I just this titan's offense is so bad like i i there's so many things wrong with it right now um i don't even know where to begin but i i don't think first coach unit in all of football yeah god like what in your mind because i'm like i don't even know where to start with there's so many problems when i watch it what do you think has been the biggest issue

1:00:37Ollie Connolly:just the functionality like they they don't know where to line they don't know who's supposed to blocking who they play against the cardinals they're tipping their snap count the entire game they never change it they're allowing an unblock free runner into the face of cam ward it's it's it's just so so bizarre even their like deep play action game you know traditionally if you're running a deep play action you would have three levels in the route structure so there's like a deep shot an intermediate threat and then a little check down to get out there they'll just send two guys all the way downfield it's like hey cam if you feel like hitting a 50 yard rope down the field good luck it's like who put this together what is this plan it really does feel like a sequence of one-off plays and the guys only learned about them like five minutes before they started the game it's it's a complete complete dysfunctional mess So Raiders?

1:01:30Ollie Connolly:I will take the Raiders. The only thing I will give Callahan, if he's got anything in the bag left, is the Raiders run the most predictable defense in football. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They had three fossilized linebackers. One of them fell out with the staff and they kicked him off the team, essentially. They play zone coverage something like 90-something percent of the time, whatever. It's 80 percent of the time. When they blitz, it's always a man blitz. It's back to Pete thinking it's 2012. so one game where if you do have anything about you as a staff and you can truly build an actual game plan in the nfl this is the easiest one to do it and i think cam ward is making the the better throws week to week than gino is at this point so that would be the hope all right i got another i got a stinker on my side bangles packers so the bangles traded for joe flacco i believe he's starting in this game seems like things are that's why they traded for him that news broke right before our show and they went to all his reactions and we all were just like what's the point of this like what are we doing here like we all are just getting another day closer to death you know like this is if you're a Bengals fan.

1:02:45At least, like, try something fun. Dalton. Sam Howell?

1:02:50Ollie Connolly:Dalton Howell? Bring back Dalton. I'd rather watch Stetson Bennett. Try, you know, like just something unknown. I don't know. Someone who can move. Flacco can move. This is a terrible offensive line. And here comes an angry Packers defense that just got their teeth kicked in by Dallas. This is going to be ugly. It's going to be ugly. Ugly. Feeding frenzy. The idea of they'll get Joe Flacco because if nothing else and it's third and long, he can throw the ball down the field to T and Jamar. I just don't think he was throwing the ball that well down the field this season. I think it's a little misnomer from when people saw him the previous years.

1:03:34Ollie Connolly:He still has the power on the throws, but the accuracy is just completely gone. He is really afraid of getting hit, which is understandable. He's 40-something years old. I just don't get it at all. And I think it's just a damning indictment of the organization that they built a structure. The Bengals, yeah. That they built a structure on offense that was only one guy can pilot this in the NFL. And we have no ability to adapt on the fly if that guy goes down. Given his injury record, it's just unfathomable that he would build a team that way, let alone pay two wide receivers in a way that we've never seen a championship contender pay a team like that.

1:04:07Ollie Connolly:It's the biggest dereliction of duty a front office has given to his team. Especially as you look around the league and you see coaches adapting their offenses to suit the skills of different new backup quarterbacks. I thought Stefanski, until the last drive, which was frustrating, I thought he actually called a good game for Gabriel for most of that game. The offense is obviously evolving there. And yeah, Cincinnati basically throw their hands up and say, we built this whole thing in the image of our quarterback. He asked for it. Don't yell at us. And it's like, but you were the bosses. You can't.

1:04:46It's like parents being like, well, our kid wanted all of this. Sorry. the adults

1:04:52Ollie Connolly:even if you said well we don't have the time to practice all the stuff that we would run if Joe wasn't available one that doesn't really wash when he's been out multiple weeks too we watch Matt LaFleur and Malik Willis on the same team right yes they run the wishbone offense for two weeks and one game and win yes yeah I would pick the Packers even if Malik Willis was playing this game by the way they'd be able to run the ball on Cincinnati. I'd like to see the Packers run game get right here too. This is like, this is a Green Bay is going to come out angry. And I imagine we're both picking them to win.

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1:06:50Ollie Connolly:It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair. And let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house. If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play. That's what Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grill accessories, Wayfair's got it all. And it shows up fast. I'm talking fast and easy delivery. So level up your grill game and your outdoor chill game. And head to Wayfair.com to get your outdoor space ready for the season. Wayfair, every style, every home. As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Grainger has your back.

1:07:28From professional-grade products you can count on to fast, dependable delivery, they're there to help you keep things running smoothly. Plus, their technical product specialists are here to help answer your toughest questions. And because Grainger knows safety is always a priority, They're committed to being your partner in protecting both your people and your facilities. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click granger.com, or just stop by. Niners-Bucks. All right, a good game. We got all good games from here on out. We're doing both sides of every game. You're on the Niners side. I'm on the Bucks side. This is in Tampa.

1:08:03You go first.

1:08:04Ollie Connolly:The Niners key for me is how do they isolate and attack Savace Dennis? And that probably is going to be the Christian McCaffrey game. but he gets like 15 targets and just has a monster game. Yeah, I actually wrote this down for Tampa. Can you stop passes to running backs? Because they've struggled with it all year at the linebacker. And they're actually 28th in DVO and passes to running backs in particular. And it's been such a reminder, like as all the Niners injuries have happened. And I know Kendrick Bourne just had like an insane game. And, you know, there's been different players, But watching them, I was like, oh, right.

1:08:43Christian McCaffrey was the guy they couldn't afford to lose. Like, as long as he's there, Kyle Shanahan has the weapon he needs to manipulate defenses, the gravity, all of it. if you take him out, that's when things get froggy for them. Obviously, not having Kittle has been brutal and the whole season, but it has been a reminder watching Mac Jones in particular in this offense that CMC is the straw that stirs the drink. And unfortunately for Tampa, I think it is where they're the weakest is dealing with a player like him.

1:09:20Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I mean, the Bucs have, I think, the best secondary in the NFL by a decent distance. I know that the Eagles fans might be upset about that, but Taiki Smith is playing as well as any safety in football. So is Antoine Winfield Jr. It's probably those two at the top of the running order right now. Jacob Parrish has been sensational as a rookie. And the pass rush is really, really effective with the four-man group. And then you get tagged on all the balls, blitzes, and the creativity. Then Levante at least gives you the real downhill thumping threat and the impact in the run game. Dennis is just kind of like the guy out there.

1:09:52Ollie Connolly:It's like the ultimate test case of the weak link theory on defense. They have 11 really, really talented players or 10 really talented players. And then they have Sivache Dennis. And can you find him? It just so happens that we have the ultimate mismatch finder coming up this week with the ultimate mismatch, which is Christy McCaffrey on Dennis. Bucks are still banked up in the second. I think I just saw that Zion McCollum might be hurt as well. So definitely feels like a pass happy game for San Francisco. I think Purdy's going to be back for this regardless. Yeah. I mean, no, I don't have that conversation.

1:10:28All right.

1:10:29Ollie Connolly:You're going to have a conversation about whether you just keep starting Max? Well, in this game, the quick game guy is kind of who you want. I'm not saying that he's a better quarterback than Brock Purdy, but stylistically he brings something different to the table, and that works for specific matchups. It was like he's the right quarterback versus this Rams team, watching them, right? You just need a guy who's just like pew, pew, pew, pew, pew. Baker's very much not a pew, pew quarterback right now. He is coming off of one of his best, probably his best game ever. He's up there, granted, against the aforementioned Seahawks secondary.

1:11:11But he's been very, very good. He's been very, very accurate. He's been very, very aggressive. So what I wrote is, Baker, just don't turn it over, man. because I kind of think that, like, I think if he doesn't turn it over, this offense is going to have a lot of success against the San Francisco. Pass rush that's been super defanged without Nick Bosa and has vulnerabilities. Baker has the third highest tight window throw rate in football. There's a litany of reasons for that. I think Dak might be ahead of him probably. But he also, and I don't always, I don't use this stat a lot. It's the PFF stat, but I do think it's accurate.

1:11:52He has the second most turnover-worthy plays behind Gino Smith. The difference is Gino has eight interceptions and Baker has, like, one. It actually—that is what it looks like to me. Like, he is trying to fit the ball into the tightest, and he, again, like, has been nails. And when you have receivers playing the way Buka is playing, it's fine. And also, that's a big part of the tight window thing. Same thing I would say about Dak. but you know that could run into he could run into some bad luck so i think that he just this

1:12:25Ollie Connolly:to me is just don't turn it over game yeah i mean he's being pretty fortunate this season that he has this now streak of the the game-winning drives and the comebacks and it puts him in an mvp conversation but they probably shouldn't have been in those situations if he didn't keep trying to fit the ball into tight windows and he's been so fortunate we're not turning it over you would hope this week he would just understand like this is an efficiency game we can drive on these guys I don't need to go and get it in two plays. We can get it in 10, 12. There's not enough on the Niners' back end to really challenge us for a 12-play sequence, and that's all the Niners are right now.

1:12:58Ollie Connolly:They've got all these scrappy, undersized guys because the stars are out, and they're really fighting. They just don't have a ton of talent. And so unless you cough the ball up to them three times, they're just not going to be able to stay in the game.

1:13:13um let me actually sorry get the latest purdy back jones update i should have i assumed it was purdy back have you heard anything on i've not i thought that mac played so well they would push it another week if they yeah there's no reason to um all right well assuming it is mac jones i do think this niners offense can move the ball in tampa the way that we've been discussing You don't have to push the ball downfield. You don't have to run it super efficiently and you shouldn't. I was encouraging my key for the Seahawks against Tampa was for Clint Kubiak to go way less run heavy on first down. And I was actually really encouraged to see him completely flip their numbers and just come out firing against it.

1:13:57And I think you're going to want to see that. We've seen Kyle Shanahan. He's very cognizant of when they shouldn't be running the ball on early downs. And I think that he's going to hand the keys over to Mack on early downs and it's going to be effective.

1:14:13Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I agree with you. I think that, I mean, Kyle is the best at whatever the game plan requires is what we'll do. And there's the stable in offense every week, but kind of the feel and flow of the offense, whether it's a throw to get ahead and then run the ball to close at the game or vice versa. He's the best we have in the league at managing that. I'm going to pick Tampa. How about you? Yeah, I'll take Tampa. I do. I'm kind of in agreement with you that if Brock is in there, it doesn't quite fit what they would need as much in this game, though he's just the better player. And if he's available, then you're going to want him out there.

1:14:48Ollie Connolly:And I just think the biggest mismatch is the Bucs offense going up against the Niners defense. Yeah, the Niners defense. the Rams just turned it over you know I mean like they like their offense was moving the ball on them just pass rush is not getting it done right now and the Tampa offensive line is coming off a really good game um okay let's get to the big bad before it's both Monday night games are actually good but Sunday night football is one of the best games of the season Lions Chiefs in Kansas City, coming off of a Chiefs loss, devastating loss to Jacksonville. The Lions now are being talked about as the best team in the NFL.

1:15:33You have Detroit. I'm going to go first. I'm on Kansas City. I just wrote, can you attack these corners? So I just finally got to Lions and Bengals. Why? and it was really a great game for Terry and Arnold even though he got hurt because anytime Lions fans are mean to him now he should just put on that game and show them what happened when he went out and the good news for the Lions long term is he is actually not out for the season which is remarkable and really important because of the lack of depth they have they lost Rekestraw before the season DJ Reed is on the IR so in Cincinnati it was Amik Robertson and Rakia Sin And then they had like Trey Flowers, who I did not know was in Detroit, out there.

1:16:21Coming off of a game where the Chiefs pass. I mean, to be more specific, other than attack the corners, I wrote, can you make these Lions DBs communicate? I'm thinking if I'm Andy Reid, I'm just very aggressively four by one, tacking them with crossers, putting it like, you know, just doing all the Andy Reid stuff. because this is a group that has not played football together. And right now, this is a quarterback who is absolutely dealing Petra Moms.

1:16:47Ollie Connolly:Yeah, and in the preseason, Reid kind of flipped what he was doing with Travis Kelsey. It's like the smallest sample size ever, but they don't really use Kelsey an awful lot anymore. It's like an isolated receiver on one side of the formation, then throw all the receivers on the other side because he just becomes a slot for them in any kind of isolation situation. And it was Rasheed Rice who'd be the isolated guy to try and kind of funk up that communication. I think that's what I'd be tracking early on. How often do they just say, Kelsey's an isolated standalone receiver on one side of the formation, putting all the speedsters to the other side.

1:17:18Ollie Connolly:And if you get some kind of double cross, double posting, that's when you're just playing a straight line speed race with these guys. And whatever you think of Tyquan Thornton, his breakout as a receiver, in a straight speed race to gamify the matchups for you, I think that's their best plan of attack. He's been pretty good. Like, that's the other thing about Thornton. Like, it's not just he's obviously fast and he's always been fast. But, like, I was one of the – so he had three deep catches last week, right? One was coverage bust. I think it was, like, cover three. It was, like, a deep over.

1:17:51The second one, Mahomes just got hit and just flung it. And he showed something, which I think you've seen now, which is the ability to track the football. It was really quite impressive. And then I think the third one was in, like, Mahomes extended. and that's another thing he has shown, the ability to make himself available on these scramble drills, which is obviously the Tyreek Hill special is very important in this offense. But yeah, I'm watching him thinking like, damn, this is kind of legit.

1:18:19Ollie Connolly:His general toughness, like that was the knock on him coming to England. It's like, this guy wants to sprint. He doesn't want to be a football player. He can't play through contact. And those guys are clearly either just lying or wrong. It can only be that simple. He plays through contact. He'll stick his nose in there. And he tries to block even though it's not that great. But, you know, he's doing his best out there. He's playing, I think, really good all-around ball. And then you mentioned some of the deep tracking stuff. It's not just long speed. It's the ability to go find it and pull it in.

1:18:46Ollie Connolly:It's a legit weapon. I feel for Kelvin Shepard because I think he's actually done a great job this year. And I just don't know. What is your approach when you start losing these corners? and like you, I mean, because Kansas City, you want to play a decent amount of man coverage as long as you can account for Mahomes' scrambler. But like, I do not trust these cornerbacks to hold up in man coverage. Yeah, that's the tricky thing is the Mahomes scrambling part. You start running out of bodies to be able to play all that man and then not account for him and he'll lead the team in rushing again. I look back to what he did against the Ravens and all kind of rush stuff that he did.

1:19:26Ollie Connolly:And this is how teams have tried. The linebackers. Yeah, where you just kind of have a layered rush plan where it's like the first wave goes and it's two guys. Then here comes the third guy. Then it comes the fourth guy. And as Maolens moves around, you push him and funnel him with how you build the kind of rush increments out to say, we know you're going to be stood on this hash in three seconds. And we know you want to hold the ball and look downfield. And we'll get a free runner coming through at you, whether it's Anzalone or Campbell. I think that's your best bet. And you just hope that can be forced to takeaways rather than trying to be a team that just stops them driving down the field for the entire game.

1:19:59Yeah, I think the problem with that approach is the Chiefs are much more capable of attacking the spies in the way that the Ravens weren't through their passing attack. I don't love the for them. But good news, Lions fans. There's two sides to this game. I suspect you're going to talk about the offense because that's why this is going to be good.

1:20:17Ollie Connolly:Yeah, this is why it's going to be good. I just think the Lions can rain down six, seven, eight, 20-hour plus plays in the passing game. I think they can run around the field. I just don't know what even the solve is for this offense anymore. Even the guys we thought would be concerns coming in, the interior guys, they're kind of limited in what they do well, but what they do well is exactly who the Lions want to be, which is just two bodies, two heads together, duo, double and climb, knock you off the ball, and then hit big chunk vertical play action shots. And then if they want to kind of move around Gibbs or Laporta or Sam Brown and be creative in the matchup game, they can do that too.

1:20:57Ollie Connolly:and there's just so many different answers, so many different weapons, and the Chiefs just can't play one-on-one football. And they can't really create a ton of pressure, particularly their downfall. And Chris Jones has just not quite got in the pass rush the same juice off the ball. He's been pretty good at disrupting the run game, but it's just not the same kind of impact on obvious passing downs. I just don't see any way that the Lions don't comfortably drive down the field. And this becomes a real shootout and we just see who makes a kind of game-breaking mistake. Which defense in the NFL do you think is the worst against play action e-paper play?

1:21:32Ollie Connolly:The way you say that, I'm going to guess the Chiefs. Yeah. I mean, week one, you know, lives rent-free in my head, just watching guys wide-ass open downfield with the Chargers. But yeah, you know, this is, I think, the style of backers that they have. This has been something you can get them with. Obviously, the Lions are the best play action passing attack in football. I think this could get ugly. The Jones thing is, man, interesting because we talked about Hainsey going out and I think it was on the throw to BTJ. Yeah, it was the ball to BTJ on the final game winning drive. The Chiefs had like a five man pressure and they ran like a little game on the right side and they had Jones on the backup center.

1:22:13And I saw that when they lined up and I'm thinking, here we go. And then the center kind of held his own. And that was if I'm a Chiefs fan, that might be the scariest thing from the entire game for me. I don't think he's washed. I'm not saying that. But it's kind of like what I was saying about Philadelphia, where it's like the whole idea is you have this dominant defensive lineman. And if he's not, I mean, Carl Optus has been good this year, but I do not. It's what I said week one. I do not feel like this Chiefs pass rush is good enough right now.

1:22:45Ollie Connolly:No, it's not. They have the pressure to have any hope. And I just don't think they can hold up on the back end as well, particularly when they have to kick Chamari Karner down to the slot. It's just like easy money for everyone else. And the thing with Jones, it's not just that he's not punishing the backup like you mentioned there. He no longer has the ability to just play all down the line of scrimmage. He used to be able to - What's up with - Yeah, this is some - Okay, I'm so glad you brought this up because that's another thing. I keep waiting on these game-winning important drives. I'm like, oh, they're going to put...

1:23:15And in this one, it's like, well, they probably like the matchup on the inside. But that was last year. Chris Jones was on the edge on every meaningful third down, pretty much. I'm going to look up his deployment because you're so correct that they've not used him this way this year. And outside of Karloftis, nobody in Kansas City is getting consistent pressure. a man who's given them very little um and it used to be with him where they were they would

1:23:47Ollie Connolly:just say we're gonna put our best on your worst and then all the fun stuff that spags wants to do is going to happen on on the other side away from him and you just need to have extra attention on him so all the fun stuff springs and works now even when they move him around he's part of the pressure game which is a real tell from then that they just don't dominant one-on-one and that everything has to be some kind of pressure or creativity or exchange up front to spring him free rather than it being we can kind of have a hybrid best of both worlds where we have a dominant one-on-one player and all the fun happening on the other side of the formation 22 at the leo this year let's see what it was last year felt like way more i'm just looking up chris jones's alignments i always like pulling up his headshot because he's got that you you know know his head shot he's got like that big goofy smile always makes me laugh um all right i'm gonna take detroit here but i do think both offenses are going to be able to move the ball well i just think detroit to my eye has more impactful players on defense so i could see make like aiden hudginson's obviously playing out of his mind as usual so i yeah and i think the detroit offense is also just really built to punish this chief's defense yeah i think that's just fewer questions with the lions on both sides of the ball even with the corner issues i am concerned about how you build the rush plan against mahomes everyone's tried everything nothing ever seems to work unless you're just kind of wrecking the pocket off the snap with four guys up there and i don't think the lions quite have the ability to do that because it is just hutchinson and then trying to piece it together with everyone else for the most part but i i just we've only really seen two weeks, one week and a half of the Chiefs kind of clicking on offense where it feels sustainable so I'll trust in the Lions offense more and I'll take them.

1:25:32I will say I think when Rice is back it's like this Chiefs offense is just going to I think go nuclear. I really do think they're going to be a top five offense in the second half of the year. They're already like not that far off for all the Sturm and Drunk. Sorry I was buying time a little because I actually wanted to see the line in that game because I like you know I don't know it's in Kansas City Chiefs Lions line let's see Chiefs are favorites in Kansas City so yeah not by not by 1.5 so that's not really okay anyway sorry um two more games two Monday night games both good games uh let's start with bill's falcons i have been really excited to talk to you about this um because you've written a lot about the falcons offense and i think it's really an important conversation it's an important conversation i'm glad we're having it for this particular game against this particular defense because um you talked about we talked earlier at the top about like some of the stuff that the patriots did right and that they've been doing on offense and how they've been evolving but um one of the things that really jumped out to me watching them against the Bills is how much the Bills struggled with misdirection, run past conflict.

1:26:47They were getting them flowing one way and then sending guys in another. They were killing them with play action, working over the middle of the field. You know, the Bills right now, I think they're a little bit slow at some important positions on the back end. And you can really kill them with misdirection. So Atlanta doesn't really use misdirection. they don't do any of that stuff they're a fascinating offense in that they have gone in kind of a different direction from the rest of the league you wrote a piece for your sub stack, we talked about the read optional, which people should subscribe to where you talked about how they're just like they're not just like living in the pistol, they are they own every piece of pistol property and they're the landlords and they're just, I mean they have made that completely their identity they do not put michael penix under center they do not run play action they're still good at running the football because they have there's linear reasons for that but they have maybe the best running back in the NFL um and they are really good at using him in the pass game which i think is going to matter in this one but anyways this is a very long-winded monologue for me to say can the falcons offense because i'm on the falcon side of this take advantage of where the bills are weak.

1:28:12And I think that's a really interesting and kind of complicated question.

1:28:15Ollie Connolly:Yeah, it's a tricky one. The thing with the Falcons offense, you mentioned I wrote that piece, it's kind of a really strange piece to write because it was almost like the diatribe of man losing his mind that the thing I wanted to see in the league, which I really felt at this kind of moment, Marin, was the pistol. Save it for Washington because they're doing good stuff with the pistol. That's really working. back robinson they're the highest rate in the league and i'm all fired up okay someone recognizes this is a good approach to take with where the league's at right now but everything they do from the pistol is so non-pistol centric they're actually not taking any of the benefits of being in that set formation where it's a downhill running game from the gun and where you can allow the quarterback to keep his vision on the defense as they try to run play action they just don't do that it's a stretch-based horizontal offense from the pistol and that play action game is a full turn the back play action system that is a set it's effectively an under center offense just push back and it makes very little sense to me can can it work against the bills run defense i think so because even without the misdirection those guys just the the run entry the speed you mentioned you know it's the the easiest team to cut it back against the grain in the league and if anyone's a better like there's just not a better one kick and go player in the league than B.

1:29:32Ollie Connolly:John Robinson. So I don't think for this game, it's going to like expose some of the structural flaws in the offense. I think they'll be able to run it pretty effectively.

1:29:44Yeah, it's the pistol stuff. You make a really good point. And I know, I'm sorry, I'll stop saying Washington, but let's revisit this when we get to Washington because I think Washington is doing all the stuff that you like talk about. They are reaping the benefits of running on those looks. And Atlanta is not because you're right. This is not an offense that they're not getting downhill. They're not play actioning off of it in a way that's fooling anyone. It's just how they align. And it feels like just purely because they don't believe the quarterback is comfortable under center. I cannot think of another explanation for why they don't put him under center.

1:30:18Ollie Connolly:I thought that, but that was also the explanation they gave with Kirk Cousins when he was running the offense. Oh, with the Achilles, he can't sprint out and stretch and do that. So we just moved it backwards. But then when Pedics came in, the rate went up. So Penix has been there long enough now that if they truly wanted to be on the center, like it's a big boy league. He's a paid professional. It's like, that's what we're doing. I mean, we didn't do it a lot, but like I've seen him. I've seen with these two eyes. He's capable of it. He's not a statue. I just don't. I don't understand. It's an ideological thing with Zach Robinson, and I don't think he's wrong for where the game's at.

1:30:53Ollie Connolly:It's just that as he's gone through piecing the offense together, all the players are better in the stuff that is really horizontal based and stretching teams out. That's where Bijan's at its best. It's where Algiers at its best. It's where the Lions at its best. And then he's just got this weird amalgamation of, well, I'll just do it, as you mentioned, from this formation, which doesn't really give any benefit. It's easier to mask and disguise the play action stuff when you're on the center. Just hide the ball easier and the rhythm and steps of the thing are easier to coach and maintain than doing it from the pistol.

1:31:21Ollie Connolly:So it's a really, really bizarre, bizarre offense. And I think that's why it doesn't feel like it's got the same rhythm as when you watch the Cowboys, when you watch the Rams. There's a real like sequencing to everything they want to do. Things look the same. They smell the same. And that's when they can hit you with the play action with the Falcons. It really is like individual play. Very siloed. Yeah, the run game and pass game have basically nothing to do with each other. They might as well be in different planets. But it's like I'm saying all this and I still think that they can attack Buffalo.

1:31:50I still think that they can run on them. I still think Bijan's going to be really a big factor as a pass catcher. I still think that if they, the way they've been using Drake London more in the slot, in breakers, all that stuff's going to work on, could work on the Bills. It's just frustrating when you watch them and there's this feeling like this could be so much better even. And like the skill players are so good. And they're not being optimized. Bijan and Bijan. Sorry, he goes back to Bijan. In particular, I keep saying this, but like if you just let him live in Detroit for a day, he might run for like 500 yards in that off.

1:32:26Like it's just you know what I mean? Like that's he'd be so good in that style of offense. So it is frustrating. You're on Buffalo's side. What do you have for this?

1:32:35Ollie Connolly:well I think that the run defense is the number one key to them winning the game honestly it's that simple and outside I don't know trading for Jeffrey Simmons doing something to help with the front I'm not sure what the fix is going to be here for them in season the safeties get a lot of the attention because it's a pretty brutal group but the linebackers are really struggling struggling too just it doesn't feel like anyone understands where they're supposed to be on the field against every specific run look and if there is any sense of misdirection or some kind of color flash to change the eyes everyone despite and everything and maybe that's what they've been told to do it's just we're going to attack and we fly to the ball it's not working and i don't really see what like the in-season pivot would be beyond trying to to add some more talent and oliver might be back this week that is helpful um but milano got hurt again in the game against new england yeah the i i really can't because i don't think the patriots have a very run game right now, but I can't get out of my head how much they were able to completely get the Bills defense flowing in the wrong direction on multiple plays.

1:33:40Ollie Connolly:Yeah. And I think they just decided going into the season, Sean McDermott wants to be a dime-based coach and they wanted to change the four-man front and say, we've got to get more versatile. You look at the guys they drafted. It's all inside, outside guys for passing downs. And that has worked. The four-man rush is really good. And that's how they want to play in the playoffs, right? Which is Josh gives us a lead. these guys close the deal. That's what they've been chasing for years now, and they've never had the four-man rush. They actually have the four-man rush group now, but these games are closer than they should be because they can't get off the field on third downs when it's third and short in a way that they hoped.

1:34:12I don't think the Atlanta Falcons defense can stop Josh Allen. I don't think they can stop the Bills' run game, which is kind of where you have to start in every Bills' offense. Every Bills game, you start with, can this defense stop them on the ground? It's a very tall order. New England has actually a very good run defense that's gotten better and better as the season has gone on. The Falcons are 30th in success rate versus the run. Bills are 24th, by the way, in case you're wondering. And then the Bills can just do everything off of that. So it's just, yeah.

1:34:44Ollie Connolly:I think that Khalil Shakir up against Billy Bowman might be the biggest miss. I like Bowman. He really fights and scraps, and he can make some big plays, but he's just pretty stiff on the turn, and people have really started to get after him and attack him in space and just putting Shakir on him one-on-one, I think that's probably the most automatic down thing the Bills will have. So we're both on Buffalo, presumably. You're on the Bills as well. On the Bills, yeah. Okay. I guess the Browns is the only game where I decided to... No, I took the Raiders. No, you took the Raiders too, right, over the Titans?

1:35:24Ollie Connolly:Yeah, I took the Raiders. So yeah, this is not a great, not a lot of upsets this week. The Browns and the Steelers, that's my spicy pick. I'll stick with that one. Okay. Bears Commanders. This is a fun one. I'll go first because I was like, I'm going to talk about it in like five seconds. I love watching this Commanders run game so much. Cliff Kingsbury. I've already he already has wildly surpassed my expectations generally as offensive play caller but he is and this is an often repeated refrain has always been an amazing run game designer even in Arizona when things went off the cliff he was still really creative and what I love watching the commanders and this really does flow well off of the Falcons talk they're constantly iterating in in terms of what they do in the run game watching them against LA from the end zone view was just a it was a symphony of manipulation um the new thing that they've added is the pistol stuff with the six offensive linemen but to your point they are pulling dudes it's all gap off of that duo counter pimp they're so good at pin pull um and it was incredibly effective against la and then uh they're also really good when they put daniels in the gun at making defenses account for him.

1:36:46But again, there's so much misdirection, various motions, pulling guys one way, the cooler's going in the way, Daniels is going. They just give you so much to look at on the ground. And it's a mind-off, like it's really, really tricky. And while this Bears run defense isn't as apocalyptic as they looked, I think the first couple of weeks of the season, I do not like this matchup for them on the ground.

1:37:08Ollie Connolly:No, I think this is a brutal matchup for them on the ground. What Cliff does so well, I I talk about this all the time, but what all these offensive guys are trying to do in the last couple of seasons is just try to make the defense be static. Everyone is moving so much. You have all these mudbooks and these safeties rotating and then Zach Bourne starting off the ball. He's walking on the ball. They are walking and moving all the time on defense. And it's just a cluster to figure out what's happening. And the best way to stop them all is just make them be static. And the best way to do that is to either get in heavy personnel or to spread it all out and go empty.

1:37:41Ollie Connolly:And they are the biggest proponents of doing both. and trying to find a way to marry those together. And just that you're in constant run past conflict because of Daniels, because of some of the formational stuff. And the thing I really love that he does is on every single opening drive, there is some kind of newfangled blocking scheme, which is typically getting to what is a traditional two-pulling concept. Yeah, but like with a bomb puller. Wildly, yeah, right. Yeah, wildly different. They'll put some skill play in motion or an extra tight end in motion to become the traditional second puller.

1:38:14Ollie Connolly:So it's really a small lift. It's pretty hard to get two guys pulling, right? There's a lot of opportunities for someone to penetrate and get through. So they'll always open the game with some new show of, this is how we're getting to it this week. And then they always come back to open the third quarter with a shot off the action every single time. It's pet joy of like, this is what I'm going with this week. And it just makes everyone doubt themselves. You hit it perfectly. Like the pause they put in people, they make you play static. Then they make you pause at the snap. And that's just the most effective offense.

1:38:43Dude, the Chargers defense is so well coached. And they were, I've never seen them out leveraged the way they were in this game. Just completely had no idea what was going on in the run game half the time. Yeah, it's just, it's really impressive. I mean, like, every two, I was like going back and just watching all this. It's always a different guy getting a great block off. It's always different guys pooling. Daniels didn't even have to run that much, which was nice to see. Keep that up. But just the mere threat of him as a designed runner and a lot of the stuff, too. You know, they do so much stuff with him.

1:39:24It's really fun to watch. But you have the Bears. What do you have in this?

1:39:29Ollie Connolly:Got to find a way to force the commanders into man coverage. I think that is the key. Can you do that? Yeah, good one. I think it's a tricky one for Ben Johnson because Ben wants to be who Ben is. You know, the ego is the size of the state, basically, and an earned ego at that. So he wants to do all the movement and all the different stuff we're just talking about with Cliff. When you move a whole bunch, people just default. They check to zone. That's why the zone rates go to 70, 80 percent. But if you can get the commanders into man coverage, they have two sinkholes in coverage, which is Bobby, who I adore and is an unbelievable blitzer.

1:40:01Ollie Connolly:And I could talk to you for hours about how he's redefined his game as he's aged. but you've got Bobby in space, which is a disaster, and Marshall Latimer, which is a disaster. Two complete sinkholes in man coverage. If you can just swallow the ego for a week and accept it might be static, it might look a bit rickety at times, but we're just going to get in the gun and try and play man-to-man football, we know we can expose these guys. I'm in complete agreement with you, and it is really funny how much styles make fights and matchups matter in the NFL because we were literally just having this conversation about how much the commanders can do what the Falcons can.

1:40:40The Falcons can't do what the Patriots did against the Bills' defense, right? But the Falcons did what you just described against the commanders. I was trying to pull up the coverage because they were killing them and specifically hunting the players that you described in that game. And that is a very, you know, we're just going to sit in the gun and attack. And yeah, I think that is the correct approach against this team. I think McLaurin is going to be back in this game, it's looking like. We'll see how he looks, but potentially that would be a matchup that they're going after, I think. Like, oh, no, sorry, McClendon.

1:41:18It's very mis-brounced from team to team. Sorry. Excuse me. That's on the other side of the football. I think that DJ Moore would be a person you could hunt Lattimore with, not McClendon. His own teammate. Sorry. Brain fart. Yeah. So I have a lot of confidence. I think that the Bears are capable. They're very inconsistent, though, offensively. And they're coming off the bye. So that's kind of interesting in this one. like you talked about what they like do you think that they can go toe-to-toe with i think i don't frankly i'm gonna take washington this one i just think the washington offense is so much more consistent at this point and the floor is so much higher

1:42:06Ollie Connolly:the problem the commanders have is when they play zone that they basically recognize we can't stay in man coverage when they go to zone they've had more busts than anyone in the league this season in zone coverage. They get up more explosive plays in zone coverage than anyone in the league this season. And almost all of that is a communication breakdown and someone messing up. It's not just like, oh, we get, they ran a great concept. They have good players. It's just like they mess up. I don't think they're going to mess up like that. It's pretty rare for a team to just mess up for like six, seven, eight weeks in just a base zone system.

1:42:34Ollie Connolly:So I think you've got to try and find a way to force them to man. My fear would be coming off a bye. Ben Johnson, they've been working on the operation, which as you said, has been a mess. They're always behind the chains. They can't get the plays off. guys can't get lined up, that they're going to want to, having invested so much time in trying to get the operational stuff right, just run their offense. I think if they just accepted that if we almost play at the Bengals for a week, as you mentioned, they have the Falcons, the commanders, that's the best game plan for this opponent. It's not about us and the next five years of Caleb's development.

1:43:01Ollie Connolly:Let's go get a win. I just don't really trust Ben Johnson to do that. But if they did do that, I think they could score pretty effectively drive for drive with a really good commander's offense. You're still taking Washington, I presume? I've taken, well, I've gone all chalk at this point. Why not? I'll take the Bears coming off the bye. Why not? All right. Good. I appreciate you. Yeah, I'm going to take the Commanders. Man, I just love the Commanders' offense. I think there are defenses that I trust to exploit the issues of the Commanders' defense, and I'm just not there yet with Chicago, even though I do think the quarterback has played well and there's been promising, there's a lot of promising stuff from the early part of the season.

1:43:47But the Commanders run game just gives them such a, like I said, a floor that I think I'm, you know, I'm going to lean on that in a lot of these games. I love watching it. I know I sound a little bit over the top, but like they really are, it is a really, really well designed. It might be my favorite run game to watch in football right now. Is that crazy? I mean, who do you have more? Because the Bills just dominate you. They do use motion. But a lot of that is just like our offensive line is just going to kick your ass. I mean, but the creativity in Washington right now feels like kind of unmatched.

1:44:24Ollie Connolly:Yeah, there's no one who basically has said, what are the 25 best plays at every level of football? High school, Lithuania, Poland. We'll just put them in all our offense at the pro level. That's what Cliff does. And that's the most fun. I think the Cowboys is right there. I love the variety in that. And then the Colts. Yeah, Cowboys are really good. Tyler Warren. Tyler Warren's like an extra lineman, but also a dominant one. I love him. That's the most isolated fun thing to watch, I think. But the Commanders is right there. All right. Well, those are every game picked this week. As we mentioned earlier, you can go check out Ali's podcast.

1:45:04Check out the read optional on Substack as well. You can also listen to him on NFL Daily with our friend Greg Rosenthal. If you are watching the show Love is Blind, me and David are going to recap episodes seven through nine. That hits Friday, the latest episode of Viewer Discretion, which you can download wherever your podcasts or watch on YouTube. Ollie, did you watch Love is Blind UK by any chance? I did not.

1:45:28Ollie Connolly:I'm a huge Married at First Sight guy, particularly Married at First Sight Australia. Australian reality shows are the apex of reality shows. Traitors Australia is crack cocaine, but I have no idea. Traitors Australia. Australia is like, they have a, they put a psychic in the group so she can just guess the traitors and then you got to decide, do you believe the psychic? Sensational television. Well, anyways, if you're into Love's Blind, check that out. I will be back on Tuesday with Foxworth to talk about both of those very exciting Monday Night Games. Cannot wait for that. Thank you so much for joining Oli.

1:46:03Thank you as always to our friends at Omaha Productions who make this show, Kirsten Sebecki, Tucker Tashtian, Jack Foster, Owen Saylor. See you guys next week. Oh, special thanks, by the way, to my friends at Meadowlark and Pablo for letting me use his studio in New York. Really appreciate you guys for doing that, too. I wanted to mention that. Whoa! Whoa! Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!

1:46:31Whoa! Whoa! Whoa!

1:46:33Ollie Connolly:Whoa! MLB.tv on ESPN is your home for every out-of-market game, live or on demand. Catch your favorite teams and players, plus MLB Network and ESPN app features like Multiview, syncing your stats, key plays, bets, and fantasy, all in one place. Sign up now for MLB.tv in the ESPN app. Separate subscriptions required, blackouts, and other terms apply. Visit stream.espn.com slash MLB TV for more information.