King of the Bills? A Week 15 Preview

26:58This is the he's here game. I'm very worried about it.

27:02Ben Solak:About MVP. I am a little bit too. Somebody asked me about MVP and I said, I think it's going to be decided between the game this week and then Thursday Night Football next week. If Matthew Stafford tortures the CX, he'll probably win. If Drake May wins again, I could see him winning. If both happen, then I don't know. Okay. I'm on the Pat's side of here. So I'll go first. My note isn't on Drake May, actually. I'm sure we'll talk about that. But my note for the Patriots is, can you play run defense like you did the first half of the season? That's my exact same thing. We don't know this game. Okay.

27:37Ben Solak:So since week nine, so the Patriots defense the first half of the season was like amazing against the run. Since week nine, they are 31st in success rate, 31st in run stop win rate. Some of that coincides with the absence of Milton Williams, who is on the IR. I think he's going to be back to the playoffs. you didn't have tonga who's their nose tackle recently but this has been now an issue and it's not just against like dominant rushing teams which has been alarming to see well here comes the dominant rushing team because the buffalo bills are going to show up and they're going to run the piss out of the football so i really am interested in seeing if the patriots can find a way to improve at stopping the run because if not i do i think they're going to struggle yeah Yeah, three of the last four games of a lot of yards per carry over five.

28:29They hadn't done that once in all the games previous. At least three explosive runs in each of the last four games. That had only happened once previous. When you go and you look at the runs, because I ran through all of them. I ran through the explosives. You're trying to figure out what's going on. The two games Christian Ellis missed also felt like a big deal. He's kind of their best second-level thumper there from the linebacker spot. They were diminishing Inferno Jennings' snaps at edge, and they actually kind of ticked him back up last week against the Giants. He's a really good run defender for them.

28:56and I think it's the the reason why those particular players are important for them is because they are a little light in the pants at edge when they have Harold Landry and Kaelin chasing out there right and again when you go and you look at some of these explosive runs it's Marcus Jones as well as the nickel player as your nickel fitter Marcus Jones is that delightful season very well deserving of the extension just not exactly not a nose in the fan sort of a player and so if you can get the ball on the boundary on them fast then you have the ability to get tackle breaks you have the ability to to get a lot of displacement vertically and that's where

29:23Ben Solak:you can find your bigger plays literally what buffalo does it's like what they make for him like getting the ball on the boundary and having their skill players and if you're over indexed to it and you're moving to it too fast you're reacting to the polars james cook vision wise it's s tier vision he's so good at getting to that cutback bending that thing back you get you know spencer brown osiris torrance just bulldozing up up to the second level and you're and then now it's cook vertical right into the second level and that's where you know he can really really gets you with the breakaway speed.

29:51And so the bills ran the football fine against the Patriots. Yeah, that was interesting to go back and see.

29:56Ben Solak:I was like, Oh, they've had, did they do it? They was fine. Yeah, it was fine. Yes. Since that game, though, the bills have decided to be more of like a, you know, fine, isn't good enough for us running team, right? They've really like the explosive play rate has wrapped up for them, right? They had the Steelers game, which was super high run rate over expectations. So they've been more willing to be a like, we run the football. That's our offensive identity team. So really like, like your key for the game, my key for the game, that Bills are going to come out and really, really, you know, kind of pocket check this Patriots run defense.

30:24Like, can you get us out of this? Can you stop us from like being the physical, we impose our will team when we hold the ball? And for the Patriots, like the first hurdle to clear is being able to say, no, we're still able to keep you at like a 50th percentile running game. You're going to have to do something through the air on us. And then it becomes a question of who are you willing to target? Who are we covering with whom? Can you find a matchup to win?

30:44Ben Solak:I go tight ends on safeties if I'm not. And they were big tight ends in the first game as well. Yeah, as well. Yeah. So I think they, it was an interesting one. Cause like going back and looking at the notes, I was like, oh, this is the Buffalo did some of the Buffalo things. But, um, you know, they weren't able to finish. And I think also we saw that the, the defense just to hit the other side of the ball a little bit. What are you? So you looked upset just now. What did you see? No, sorry. I stretched my back's going. I'm getting old. also defensively i mean just looking back at my notes drake may just kind of went ham on him like i was trying to think you know like i was you know what did they do like he did i'm just looking i just wrote drake may josh allen things over and over like he did josh allen things he was making like insane plays outside of structure with guys draped off of the body he was killing when they sent pressure he was um unbelievable they were play actually them like crazy uh and i guess my question for you is is that something that they can reproduce because it was like you know that was like a that was his arrival moment i think to the world and it's there's nothing to believe that that's not who he is at this point, that he can't do all of those things.

32:11Ben Solak:I guess thinking about the Bills defense, you know, we've talked about this. They're obviously very vulnerable against the run. Um, and there's some weaknesses that I think New England was able to take advantage of. Like, how do you see that playing down on that side of the ball? Yeah. The best thing I can say about Drake May's game against the Bills was that he had no touchdowns and he had a pass rating of 101.1. Do you have any idea how hard it is to have a pass rating over a hundred with no, you don't throw a single touchdown. He also had like no picks and whatever. But still, that's like, I think there's three games this season in which passers had no touchdowns and had a pass rating over 100.

32:43So unbelievably efficient day. He killed them on third downs. It was a lot of, okay, you know, what are those going to be on third down, especially their corners were in a bad way in this game. All right, we're going to be a zone team. We're going to pack an intermediate and deep. We're going to make you check it down. We're going to rally and tackle. And Drake's ability to just see it fast, find space, then make pinpoint throws like there was not a lot of air on these like stefan digs benders and the big hunter henry throw over the middle but drake's just his ability to place the ball perfectly solves that defense sort of thing where it's like all right you can't really play zone against the elite guys this was one of those performances the bills did struggle in that game i think to pressure may to the degree which you would like to pressure may he had a pressure it was about average for his for season they pressured him 39 of the time that's about average may has been pressured but as the season has gone on one of the things we've seen from teams rushing may is they're starting to get wise to hit how much he likes to step up in the pocket how much he wants to escape through the bees and through the a gaps and i would expect a different rush plan in this game where they're going to try to heat him up early to get him to climb and then they're going to have spies they're gonna have mush rushers you're going to have those those defensive ends stunting down and then the looper coming off the edge to then greet him when he climbs up into the pocket may's pocket like may's got so much stuff that's like elites to excellent in terms of his traits his pocket management right now is like more so in the great tier it's where you can get them and obviously in this game we are missing the left side of the line will campbell and jared wilson relative to what we had in that first game and so to me there's not a lot you can do coverage wise because it's it's they're not a matchup team there's not a oh takeaways stefan digs because they distribute the ball to everybody and i think it's really hard to play zone against may with him just seeing the matrix the way he is so i want to solve the problem in the pocket and i want to see if i can make him relocate off his spot a lot and then i want to be able to get some sacks when he climbs up

34:20Ben Solak:the uh giants did what you're describing uh in terms of like trying to get him to step up and having guys ready to meet him upon arrival and you know i mean ultimately he still got the better of them but um and all things considered given that they were missing the wilson might do you see wilson's back or oh is he potentially back i missed it might be yeah i think i saw he was back at practice so check that one but no Campbell still yeah he is present big big big big I thought he was out for longer that I just saw so that is a big deal I am interested in seeing whether this Bills run defense has improved since Shaq Thompson got back and they've been healthier they've been a little bit better than some of the more dismal performances early in the season Patriots run game is not great though it's okay you know um so much of what they do is based around the quarterback being special and then of course stefan diggs went absolutely nuts in that game for so yeah it was a slightly important game there stefan uh variable by the way is a head coach off of the bye week six and oh straight up six spread right this is that you know this is the new england

35:39Ben Solak:god i was hoping our conversation clarify for this for me i think i'm gonna go bills here i really think the patriots win it that's what my gut tells me i think i think the bills the bills have dramatically like not dramatically the bills have been changing their offensive identity right and they've really been more oriented on these throws behind line of scrimmage and getting the ball out a little bit faster they use the like i said the play action game to kind of get some of the throws into the boundary quickly and they stretch you a lot more horizontally than they used to stretch you vertically with josh allen with you know okay it's it's jack gibbons and it's it's christian ellis like i think you can find some success there if this is an enormous James Cook game.

36:14If this is a big Ty Johnson game, you're able to get those runs after the catch. Then you can, you can keep pace. This whole game is on a neutral script the first time. Right. But I just, I don't see enough stops in the bills. Defense is the thing I can't get like that. That two minute drive that Drake had to put the game away was just, it was, it was very, very easy. It's a lot of room. And if they try to play more man, which I would, I would guess that you try to play more man. Well, now I'm just going to pepper Hunter Henry, right? Because I like, you know, I'm going to make Cole Bishop have the chiefs game again.

36:40I don't think he can. So I lean, I lean pages that that's, I trust that offense the most. Bill's got to make sure this thing stays neutral. Cannot fall behind in this game.

36:49Ben Solak:Oh, now you're ready to change your mind. Cause I do like the Patriots defense better than the bills defense and Patriots defense. Good against play action. Talk about how the bills love doing that. Now they have more game changing players. I would say. Yeah. I mean the corners for sure. No Milton is like, you know, I'm, I, you know, If you take me to the universes where the Bills win this, which to me is like 49 % of the universes, it's again, good James Cook day, but it's between the tackles because they're able to really move them off the ball. Okay, so Harold Landry is ruled out. Oh, no, that was last week.

37:22Ben Solak:Sorry, fake news. Landry is back in practice. Spencer Brown also critically for the Bills back in practice. Oh, that's a big deal. Yeah. Google News lying to me there. Or tell me stuff more recently, past 24 hours. Because I knew Tango was back, which is a big deal. massive um all right i'm sticking with the bills but i think this is hella close okay commanders giants that's you whoo uh obviously no janey daniels for this game no zach ertz for this game uh which is you know potentially a big deal marcus mariota when he's been the passer zach ertz is at a 26 target per out run rate 23 of the team's target share which leads the team so you need to find some new guys to distribute the ball to thankfully noah brown is back they have a young tight end ben sinnet so interested to see what how they fill the void there but this is really about the running game for the commanders that vikings game got so far away from from washington so quickly they were running the football well but they just got into deficits right you had you gave up the two opening drive touchdowns to the vikings your drive there in the middle ended with a fourth and goal turnover on down so all of a sudden it's 14 to nothing you go into the halftime locker room okay let's settle down let's calm down you throw two picks on your first two drives in the second half and it's 24 to nothing and you just you don't have the ability to control pace anymore you have to drop back and spry and flores that's a nightmare right but running wise they had 47 success on the ground 4.7 yards per carry even with that with you know chris rodriguez is the starting back at this point but cliff still just like kills teams on the chalkboard of the running game that remains the strength giants run defense obviously uh as we know you know pretty pretty bad on a historic pace right now in terms of yards over expectation per carry given up at one they're giving up one more yard per carry than they should be and over a lot of carries you know 20 30 that starts to accumulate uh 25 miss tackle rate as well which is remarkably above league average.

39:05And so to me, the key for this game is neutralizing the Giants pass rush and being able to keep this on neutral for Marcus Mariota, for Chris Rodriguez, keep this thing close. If this widens the commanders at this point, just pass protection wise and receiving weapons wise, not the sort of team that can throw their way back into games. You saw against Denver, when you can get your stops, when you control the run, Washington can hang with anybody, right? Because they have enough talent. This roster has that talent in spots. But if you're, you know, having a bad day on defense, which is always possible for Dan Quinn, and you fall behind, then you lose the running game and you lose the nature of the offense.

39:37Ben Solak:I'm looking at this game entirely through a selfish lens. I am locked in a playoff matchup with Nate Tice. He has two starting quarterbacks. We've got two quarterback league and I have one. I mean, that's not true. I have two at this point. Okay, anyways. Point is, one of my two quarterbacks is Jackson Dart. I need him to go ham here. The Washington Commanders defense is the worst in the NFL. I feel it. Here's a huge use of the Bengals. What do you think's worse? Commanders. Commanders. Yes. They are so bad. The Dan Quinn, I grab play calling before playing too bad. It was a good bit. It was a well done shtick.

40:19He executed it perfectly. However, we now have the data and it turns out the defense is the same.

40:24Ben Solak:I don't think he's on the hot seat. You don't? Nah. Daniel's injury is going to. oh i just kind of wipe yeah yeah but they gotta figure some stuff out uh he cannot call defense again when's the last time dan quinn had like a legitimately good defense i like they had what he had it was 22 in dallas yeah it was very good but still okay last time yeah but he had yeah i'm taking the giants here for the reason i just described uh i hear you though about right you're not wrong i'm just saying yeah um i mean i think i think giants win the game as well only way the commanders win it is if it's a 3 30 carry 180 yard day raiders eagles is moi

41:11Ben Solak:uh you know they've seen in the hereditary the why can't you be normal that's my key for the eagles just being normal i've seen the gift i haven't seen the show movie show i've never seen it either it's too scary uh the raiders aren't good at anything well that's not well yeah Offensively, yeah. So, look, I should have made the Eagles. You just got to score 17 points. Give me 17. That's enough here. To be a little bit more granular here, I would love to see the Eagles go heavy jumbo in this game. The Raiders will almost certainly match that by putting linebackers on the field, and then I would love to see them play action off of that.

41:53Yeah.

41:54Ben Solak:Yeah. uh the game plan they had against the uh uh the chargers yeah like in terms of passing designs would work very nicely against this raiders team yeah uh some of the stuff we talked about on tuesday throwing a saquon the raiders can't defend passes to running backs uh some of the stuff they did with dallas goddard i think will be effective here the raiders can't defend tight ends the raiders are really bad uh but let's just i would like to see just let's just see some easy buttons this in the passing game you know like let's and you know just get them in their base defense easy completions this doesn't need to be you don't need low percentage throws here just make it easy yeah the only thing that really worries me looking at this from the Eagles perspective is making sure you have a Max Crosby game plan Crosby pretty much always lines up over the right tackle that's obviously not Lane Johnson that is Fred Johnson at this time it's very irregular for an Eagles coaching staff to like sit down on a Tuesday and be like, shoot, we need to help our right tackle in this game.

42:51How do we do it? Right. This is not a thing they've needed to do for like over a decade. And so you, you have to make sure that you actually do that work.

42:57Ben Solak:Every team that plays the Raiders does this. This is not hard. Like every team knows they have one player to worry about. It's when you watch that, it's very clear teams go into this only game plan. I really would have liked to have seen Chip Kelly revenge game. I would have enjoyed that narrative as it is. And it's instead the Greg Olson show, the Raiders just live with a lot of isolation. The wide receivers play on a lot of vertical routes and vertical planes. And it's a Trey Tucker, Jack Besh, and Tyler Lockett group against a Quinnian Mitchell, Cooper, DeGene, and me group. It does not matter who the third guy is.

43:27So you're going to see, I think, a very, very heavy Brock Bowers and Ashton Gentry game in terms of the pass distribution. Linebackers make your tackles, right? Safeties make your tackles. Reid Blankenship, who in the first game without Andrew Makuba, I thought had a really rough performance against the Bears. Really strong game against the Chargers. It was nice to see Reed really step back up there. He's going to be an important player for them.

43:48Ben Solak:Jackson made some play. They were all just locking the Chargers down. Very sticky day. No, not much needs to be said about that side of the ball. I think they're going to be dominant. I mean, the pass rush, I think, is going to go crazy. What a feast going from the Chargers offensive line to the Raiders offensive line. That's a nice little one-two punch there, isn't it? Okay, you got Jets. I assume we're both on Philly. you got just Jags before we take a break uh you're gonna use this to talk about our prince the lord the returning king Trevor Lawrence coming off of unbelievable performance and what we're seeing from that offense are you gonna go another direction here I thought you were gonna say our prince Brady Cook lining up for his second career start because our second career action first career start because uh as of Wednesday Tyra uh Tyrod Taylor groin and Justin Fields knee both not practicing so it could be potential quarterback three made up for the New York Jets against Anthony Campanile and the Jags defense, like you brought up.

44:44He's actually been playing very well over the last month, month and a half of the season. Yeah, the return of Trayvon Walker has been very big for them. He really is a critical player for them at the point of attack in the running game. He makes their math work in the too high stuff. They have this like, they have Heinz Allen, Trayvon Walker, and like almost nobody else right now. Like Eric Armstead, hopefully coming back from injury. But pressure-wise, like it's just those two guys, but they do enough from simulated and wacky alignments pre-snap that they get those one-on-ones. And you expect those guys to be quality.

45:10the Jets offensive line is really quite solid, and they've been a very healthy unit for the course of the year. So the thing here is, number one, don't too high your way into getting run on. When the Jets have good offensive performances, it's usually because they're playing light boxes and teams let them just lean on them for five yards of carry. You're going to be willing to load up the box a little bit, get the physical player in there. And then the only other note I have for the Jaguars is special teams. The Jets have four return touchdowns on the year. It's the most a team has had through 14 weeks of the season since the 2012 Bears.

45:39excuse me and they haven't had that many return opportunities because they don't force that many punts um but isaiah williams kenny niguano when he had the kickoff return and they had the will mcdonald block field goal return chris banjo's unit uh has been doing great chris banjo man like he was playing three years ago i did not know that in 2022 safety last two years he was a assistant special teams coach with peyton in denver for whom he played when he was with the saints and now he's special teams coach in uh in the jets under aaron glenn right who obviously he He knew from his time in New Orleans.

46:08And their unit is ripping. At least the return unit, the coverage unit has kind of fine numbers. But still, when you go and you look at the Jets' good offensive days, very often it is accompanied by seven points from the third unit of the team. So Jaguars coverage unit, do your job.

46:22Ben Solak:I love finding out that random NFL players. I'm getting to that point where it's not just guys I remember. It's guys I remember, remember. Chris Banjo. I can remember Banjo's free agency. I'm going to look up what year. that's crazy i was on the um uh dallas sideline for i can't remember which monday night game and uh i was talking to a couple coaches and when i walks over started talking and i'm like wait you're take one underwood you're just a coach now you're the he's like i'm the assistant receivers coach i'm like awesome that's my issue going to detroit every year for like training camps and stuff because i'm right here every year with dan campbell i'm like is that dre bligh is that antonio is that mark brunel because they have so many x players um yeah we don't talk about the jags offense but uh got a little something cooking lawrence has been great jacoby has been like just pete jacoby he's been the most important league he is the jacobiest he has ever been jacoby my respect by the receiver like he is oh you want a reliable guy who only catches falls for first downs and allows brian thomas jr to just run 30 yards downfield and do it is he has been a skeleton key in that offense um lines playing well so brian thomas jr's closest targets the line of scrimmage last week was 16 yards all right jacoby myers had multiple jet handoffs all right they said liam cohen said listen only people who behave get the football my guy brenton strange yep they are passing the run game since the bye week they've been by i want to say week nine since the bye week trevor lawrence is throwing 10 plus yards down the field on 45 percent of his dropbacks it's second only to james winston which no one will ever clear james ever in these numbers but the they have become a we will run the football we'll do the jet stuff and whatever but our quarterback is not going to be the screen guy he's not going to be the quick distribution guy we're we got jacoby myers brian thompson is back we're going to push it down the field a little bit and they are reaping a lot of benefits from that i know we did afc weaknesses and i was like pass catchers terrible take because they've now set although broncos week 16 let's revisit this that's when we're gonna learn a little bit talking about that game out of the break that yeah or talking about denver against green bay out of the break anthony campanile comes from that green bay packers coaching staffs this two week stretch for bonix is a big one uh i assume we're both taking jacksonville here yes but as i said on tuesday i cannot imagine a more Jags-y in loss than at home to the Jets' 12.5 point favorites.

48:52Ben Solak:Let's take a quick break. Come back. And yeah, we're just about that game that you teased, Packers Broncos. Oof. Get summer going with a Firework Freeze five-hour energy shot. You get that iconic freezer pop flavor, but with zero sugar and a five-hour energy boost. Bursting with cherry, lime, and blue raspberry flavors, Firework Freeze five-hour energy shots bring a caffeine kick without the sugar. Ignite your taste buds with Firework Freeze five-hour energy shots. Available online at 5hourenergy.com and on Amazon. I'm pretty confident talking into a mic. Hey, I'm doing it right now. But home projects, I second guess everything.

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50:16plus.

50:18Ben Solak:All right. We're back. Actually, before we do Packers Broncos, I'm going to do Cardinals Texans. Just a little aperitif just to get us warm up, ready to go.

50:31Ben Solak:Nothing to say about the Texas defense. They kick ass. The Texas offense. Let's talk about the Texas offense. That's what I want to focus on here because I think the Cardinals defense is the past defense in particular is sneaky competent and can present some issues uh actually who did i which game did i talk about i think it was the cowboys where i talked about how they slowed down the cowboys because of the way like structurally you know a lot of quarters like boxes high flying passing texture okay so i'm interested in seeing i i you bought in on the texans offense being better a few weeks ago i have been very hesitant but like slowly inching towards accepting that they can be normal i still do not think this is a good run game or good offensive line and i still think like when you look back at uh the their win this week i against kansas city a lot of it was like cj just being special and it's doing insane things outside of structure which has been the case for his entire career cj sends the injury has looked very 2023 cj we're we're we're we're looking like we might be back but i want to mention something that i um brought up on nfl live we talked about them on tuesday which is i the offense feels like they have an identity now that is going to give a lot of defenses around the league trouble which is they are just going to own the middle of the field they have a quarterback who throws the ball very well there and they've got two monsters at wide receiver uh collins six foot four higgins six to four we laughed when they drafted higgins because we were like you just drafted like nico jr basically um so this is the stat i mentioned on the show in cj's last four games he leads all sorting cubies in the percentage of his throws on in breakers those digs slams 42 of his throws are in breakers Jeez, that's a huge number.

52:35Ben Solak:He has 0.94 EPA per drop back. That's a huge number. Jeez. 12 yards per attempt. And he leads in success rate, too. That's their game, man. And the Chiefs don't have the biggest. I love McDuffie, but there's a lot of defenses around the NFL that are going to. This is all predicated on CJ having time. They can put him on the move, whatever. the rejiggered offensive line has looked more competent they know how to pick up a blitz now yay but i i do think that that dynamic and i'm i'm interested in seeing it and how arizona chooses defended is something that at least gives them kind of like something to hang their head on as they gear up for a playoff run yeah and you're very right to say that this game against the cardinals is like an interesting one to to heat check that a little bit because the cardinals that defensive structure where they have those three safeties at the snap right three players all lined up between the numbers, 12 yards of depth.

53:32Somebody's going to be coming down, right? Somebody's going to be adding to the first level of the defense. You don't really know who and how and the rotation is going to work. That makes it challenging to throw over the middle of the field. One of the reasons why the Cardinals produce turnovers, produce interceptions is because they drop those players into places you don't expect and they rotate behind it in ways you don't expect. And so this is a game where you can't kind of black out and just throw the slant. Oh, it's going to be man coverage. It's going to be one-on-one. No, they're going to be getting somebody into that window.

53:55The exchange for that is that when you're bringing the safety down to the box the safety is the seventh fitter and the run fit that player is coming from depth and he's a small player right and so it's like i very much expect the texans to be run heavy in this game it's a great game to go jumbo right they did a lot of blake fisher against the bills kind of moved away from the last couple weeks i would expect that to come back no nick chubb potentially hurt his ribs left the game woody marks is probably capable of being and should be

54:19Ben Solak:kind of still the lion's share carry guy yeah he came in yeah yeah and so i maybe you're you don't want to be that run heavy you don't want woody to take that level of damage but i feel like you have to be willing against this cardinals team to run up a ball on them and make those defensive backs tackle the the size thing man with nico and jayden right like it's i can't wait till tank dell comes back and it's gonna look like the master splinter meme with the the the ninja turtles right like he's with if nico tank down and jayden higgins are your starters but the the belief there in being we have a quarterback who is accurate and aggressive let's get catch point players guys who are open even when they're uncovered is i think a very good understanding from Nick Casario in terms of how this is going to work best for your quarterback who throws those inbreakers like you said so well best trait you can have as an in-breaking receiver size be able to take hits be able to take contact and make catches away from your friend yeah the way Collins and Van Higgins use their frame on slants is really hard it's why AJ Brown is so hypothetically good yeah I've heard I've heard about this I haven't seen it recently but that isn't the word on the street uh okay we're both on the Texans I presume yep okay Packers Broncos let's do it Ooh, in Denver.

55:28Ben Solak:Interesting line. You've got the Packers here. Why'd you go first? We're playing the hits on defense, baby. All right, the Packers defensively are the sort of team that Bo Nix really struggles with. 80 % zone coverage from the Packers, which is the fourth highest in football. Their fifth best by yards per play, sixth best in success rate. This is a very, very good zone team. Nix's splits this year, man's zone, are pretty austere. 0.24 EPA per drop back down to 0.03. man to zone success rate goes from 51 % to 41%. And this one, which I thought really interesting and surprising completion percentage over expectation.

56:02He is negative 6 % against zone. He is positive 4 % against man. Knicks, who we talk about as like quick distributor, find the right answer. Drew Brees, Sean Payton, sort of an offense. You typically expect those guys to be very, uh, you know, cut them up against zone coverage, right? Very precise, very accurate and kind of take the right throws. Knicks relative to throws, he attempts just struggles was against some coverage. And when you go and you watch the film, you see a player who struggles to place the football in catchable spots because he's really worried about interceptable footballs, right?

56:31And so he will overreact to coverage windows. He will put the ball too far into the dirt. He'll put the ball too far in front of wide receivers because he really wants to space them away from where those defenders are. So this is a Packers defensive strength against the Bo Nix weakness. And also specifically, Bo on film really tends to struggle against the sim pressures against the blitzes from depth and the guys dropping off the line, changing the picture post snap, disguised coverages this year, negative 0.2 point oh two if you ever drop back one touchdown to three picks 5.3 yards per attempt uh the the broncos can't run the packers out of this all right they don't have that tool in the toolkit anymore with with dobbins out last three games have all been positive pass rate over expectation increasing week over week uh as there's been no dobbins right with harvey they want to kind of get him more involved as like a screen and a swing player because where he's at his best between the tackles his vision's poor and so they they want to get him the ball behind line of scrimmage is quasi run plays, but it's still actually a pass.

57:20It's still, it's still out there. And so they're not gonna be able to run you out of these locks. So you get to sit and you're too high. You have to be very aggressive in your zone coverage and your early down zone blitzes because the Broncos were early down pass and you need to make Bo be perfect down the field. And that's something that he has dramatically had an issue with this season.

57:34Ben Solak:Yeah. I basically had the exact same point Denver, which was Ken bone, Nick's find the air in this defense. It's kind of, I mean, So the Packers defense is very good at a lot of things. But one thing that's kind of shocking is on intermediate throws, they are dead last league-wide and dead last in EPA per play and success rate. They're behind the Titans and commanders in that regard. Structurally, it's never supposed to happen. So when it does, somebody messed up. Yeah. So. Nick's over the last since week eight has started to push the ball downfield more and he's been better at it. First few weeks of the season, it was just was not a part of his game.

58:23Ben Solak:Whether or not he can do so and quickly being a key part of that as well, because that's something also with the Packers. Basically, if the ball comes out in two and a half seconds, you got a chance. is to me how this gets decided because if he i i would say 10 plus yards like 10 to 20 in particular but let's just say 10 plus he's got to have five six plus completions which is not a given not a given not at all the race game was hilarious i i mean just they they it kind of goes back to what i was saying about the eagles the raiders I was like, just take the easy stuff. They just give them easy stuff all day.

59:04Ben Solak:They didn't even try, which is, again, it's the Raiders. It's the correct way. But this is an interesting one where, like, there's a reason why we're both on this. Where the Packers are potentially weak is just not something that it's – Knicks is very good at giving his receivers a chance. That's not the name of the game here. You've got to find the space. Yeah, and we talked about big targets with Nico Collins and Jaden Higgins in Houston. Pat Bryant's been getting a lot more run, and this is the sort of game for which you got a player like Pat Bryant to be able to make adjustment catches over the middle of the field to be able to make the big boy catches.

59:40That's the way that he plays. Obviously, Sutton has that skill set as well. I will say that Broncos off his line, great. The way that they lose is typically with interior pressure. That's just not how the Packers are going to get you in terms of their four-down rush.

59:53Ben Solak:They'll try them. They'll find ways. The Packers, right. I think there's going to be a lot of loop, a lot of stunt, a lot of change up the look. because you don't really want to be sending that many players from depth on early downs. Cause you're going to have good plays. You're also going to have busts. And then that there's just no reason to live that way against Denver. So with the fact that the Packers are poor on the interior, I would like, I don't know. Harvey did have a better game against the Raiders. It is the Raiders. You have other backs that you have to look off and have Tyler Beatty who liked to get run.

1:00:21It would be great if you could get a run game going in this right to force those safeties to play a little bit more aggressively to come downhill a little bit faster so that you could get more air downfield. my faith in it is low but i still think if i was the office coordinator in denver i would want to try it in the first quarter because it's it's such a salve it's such a relief if you can well

1:00:39Ben Solak:i mean chicago which was the best run game in the nfl yeah they stuck with it and it was right in the second half so but again that's the best run game in football yeah but and but so much of caleb's throws in that game or throw on move and that's an important part of of kind of breaking the packers defensive geometry is being able to relocate the quarterback and flood zones Nick's throw on moves just never been his best thing, right? He much more so prefers to scramble. This will be a big game for his legs. Scramble rate quadruples against zone coverage relative to man coverage. He's going to get outside of the pocket.

1:01:10He's going to try to break some tackles. And so, Nick, this might be like a classic Mahomes, I'm the leading rusher with 50 yards sort of a day for Nick's when he talks and runs.

1:01:17Ben Solak:All right. Let's talk about the strength on strength side here. Yeah. And I'm just going to put it to you this way. The Denver Broncos play man coverage 60 % of the time. the most in football. Jordan Love right now leads all quarterbacks in QBR. I think he's tied with Drake May in EPA play against man coverage. If you're Vance Joseph, do you just say, hey, we do what we do. Our guys can win this. Or do you change up some of your tendencies after watching this Packers offense shred man coverage, particularly over the last four weeks or so because this is you gotta you know let's look at the recent performances i think when you make this choice if it's me and i'm a nerd and i'm probably like oh i change it up and i do zone because he doesn't do well and i i pitch the change of whatever i guarantee you vance joseph's watching the lions film the bears film and saying well we're way better than these corners right i mean like our guys like all three of our guys would start over all three of their guys on this film right i'm gonna you know and his back right don'tavian wicks is not gonna have the lions game he had against my guys right now there is probably some veracity to that right and you can get wario jordan love in days where you really can bully his receivers right and because you will throw you know oh it's time for the big post and it's like no no no like romeo dobbs being eaten alive if i just pretend don't throw this he's like no no i'm still shooting and so i like I would I will not find it totally indefensible if Vance walks out and is as high man coverage rate as he typically is I do think that you will see some zone stuff sprinkle in and it goes to the point that we brought up way back in the day with when Tiger Kraft got hurt which is that they still haven't really proven they have a good yards after catch player since the Kraft injury and that ability to enter that mode of offense where it's dink and dunk and create explosives Jane Reed though back I think he's big in this game I think he's so important you saw like first half their immediately like hey jade and targets right like they've been waiting for this for a long time i i mean i think you want to your answers against the blitz your answers in main coverage can't all be 15 plus yards downfield in this game i guess i you know i've been on the like jordan love vomit has been my like you know that um maybe you're not like online that meme that's like the superman say your stupid song or whatever meme that's going around remotely figure out what you're talking about going around and like tick tock and reels and whatnot where people just say what's the thing that they say all the time and mine has been jordan love throw it down like i just really like every but this week and i'm not saying he shouldn't but i think a big part of their game plan has to be that underneath yards have to catch passing game they got to find a way to work the backers so yeah I'm taking Green Bay here because I think that's a strength on strength matchup that I will is about neutral but I like the Packers defense better than the Broncos offense yeah I the one matchup that I'm also I should say quite worried about is like we have seen games in the past couple of years where Denver's pass rush just decides no no no we win this game and certainly this season we have seen games for the Packers offensive line where they've decided no no no we lose this game, right?

1:04:34Like, you know, and they are absolutely healthier than they are. And they've come to a better balance and the interior rotation has kind of been figured out. No Elton Jenkins, but Sean Ryan is playing very well for them. Like they, they, they are better than they were in the first two months. Don't get me wrong, but there are a lot of universes where, you know, this game ends 17 to six and it's because Nick, you know, and John,

1:04:52Ben Solak:the Cooper just decided like Texans and Brian game is that. Yeah. Yeah. And they can win any, those two teams and the Seahawks as well can beat any team. Those three teams can beat any team. Yeah, because of the defense for the pass rush. I am going to pick the Packers. Broncos fans got very upset with me last week because on a bold prediction file that required a 50-word blurb, I said, bold prediction the Raiders might beat the Broncos, and they're very mad at me for that. To be very clear, I think it's quite a close game. I think it's a bad particular matchup for the Broncos, so I lean Packers.

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1:06:27Ben Solak:Okay, Panther Saints. we uh actually well let me see what you say i'm curious uh my my key for this game is situational execution for the panthers you go back and you watch that game that they lost right 17 to 7 this was one of the games where like the panthers played well the previous week so they had to play badly the next week uh they had a jc horn fell down on a big chris olavi touchdown off the sideline uh bryce young fumbles a jet exchange to i think it was jaylen coker uh in the red zone but as a jet handoff threw a bad pick to alante taylor there in the fourth quarter while it was still a one score game.

1:06:59The whole theory behind the Brandon Staley defense is if I make you execute enough plays on offense, eventually you mess up. And one of the, you know, the, one of the big praises of Bryce Young is how clutch he is. And the corollary to that praise is that he's not consistent, right? Oftentimes your clutch players are the guys who,

1:07:16Ben Solak:your best performances are all third and fourth down. And if you're clutch, then it means you're going the earlier downs. You weren't necessarily doing so much as well. They were three for nine on third down in this game and over one on fourth down. And so the, the saints are going to stress you for execution, Panthers got to be able to run the football better in this game. They had a 33 % success rate or something rushing football is god awful. So be able to run the ball a bit better, stay out of more of those long downs. And then Bryce Young, a little bit smoother execution. Coker is much more like integrated back into the lineup now.

1:07:44McMillan's been having better games. You are a more improved team than you were. And hopefully that'll be reflected here against this defense. But the Saints do stress out particularly how the Panthers play because the Panthers are not good at that sort of, you know, very controlled game plan.

1:07:59Ben Solak:You work for it. I mean, it took me a second to get to the same, even as a known Shuck boy, I was not able to watch the Saints-Bucks game for a while. And it's funny because obviously Tyler Shuck did runs and he made a couple of throws on the end of the game. Yes, he did. But my overwhelming takeover was like, is anybody notice that the Saints defense is okay now? because uh and then i looked it up and they're actually above average in both yards per play a massive jump from 28th last year to 14 10th in yards per play which speaks to way they're just make you check it down make you check it down um you know brand staley's not not a bad defensive he knows what he's doing man he really does you're getting good performances out of some younger players too that also jumped out to me so this is not no saints game is actually a gimme i I would say that this is not like, you know, that defense is far from the likes of the commanders and Bengals and whatnot.

1:08:59Ben Solak:I'm going to take Carolina as well here, even though I hate how I feel about picking Kansas games. Yeah. My belief in the Saints passing game, as much as I like what Shuck did last week against the Bucs, there still does not a lot of wide receiver talent is the big thing for me. And with Chris Alave, Devon Vele, and Mason Tipton, it's Jawan Johnson at tight end. I do think the Panthers, like you said, Mike Jackson's been playing quite well this season. This is the sort of game for which they actually do have the horses, which is not a common thing for them in the defensive backfield. So I lean Carolina, right?

1:09:30Like I said, like it was short fields and JC Horn falling down. There were all the Saints points in this game. I think it'd be very low scoring. Panthers should be the better team.

1:09:39Ben Solak:Niners Titans. Is this the biggest spread? No, Jacksonville. And also my game coming up. Have we not got which one? The geriatric bowl. Oh, God. I picked that without looking at the fact that the Seahawks are two touchdown favorites over the Colts. Okay, I'll go first here. This won't be long. So Titans beat the brands. San Francisco, obviously favored by a lot. I reckon they run the ball on San Francisco because Tony Pollard kind of went crazy on Cleveland. Where this has been for 13 weeks. I was so pissed watching this film. I had so much Tony Pollard stock coming into the season. We just decided to light it up in week 14.

1:10:24Ben Solak:So as you mentioned, the Browns have tremendous run defense normally. The Niners do not. So I'm watching that thing and like, all right, let's see this again. If you want to have a chance, the Niners also don't have a good pass rush. So if they're able to run the football, I actually think Cam Morgan has the potential to have like a pretty decent performance here. Other side of the ball, I think, you know, they'll be them and watching how a fan and completely torch that tight secretary. Like the George kept was going to go crazy picking San Francisco, of course. But I think if I think about a game in which like the Titans pull off the upset, they're shortening the game, they're putting together long drives.

1:10:58Ben Solak:If Pollard has a similar performance to what he did last week against a vastly inferior run defense, I could see this one being weird. Yeah. And it's going to be a lot of pretty dropbacks too, because like the 49ers running offense, as we know, is kind of three yards in a cloud of dust. Titans run defense has been much better since Devontra's when Jeffrey Simmons got on the field at the same time. I think it's going to be like, it's going to be like those days where like at halftime, Purdy's like 18 for 22 for three touchdowns, like already, right? They're just going to throw the ball so much.

1:11:23Very high scoring would be my guess. Niners still should win it, but yeah, the Titans have been improving week over week. I still continue to believe in, in Cam Ward and some of the young pieces here.

1:11:32Ben Solak:All right. CX Colts in Seattle. Do not know who is playing quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. Yeah, we know who's playing quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts. I have never seen cards played less close to the vest. I think they're being deliberately weird about it because are there two more diametrically opposed quarterbacks to repair for on planet Earth than Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard? Yes, but the scale of goodness is not big enough for it to matter. Like, neither player is like, oh, no, we prepared the wrong way. Now he's going to get us. We're going to be punished for our failures.

1:12:09Ben Solak:Quote from Mike McDonald on possibly facing Philip Rivers this week. if anyone can pull it off it's him guy's probably one of the best competitors in the history of the NFL I'm sure he wouldn't do it if he didn't feel like he was ready three seconds later Mike McDonald probably walked away and laughed to himself for 35 minutes thinking about what his defense is going to do to that man if a defensive coordinator ever compliments an opposing quarterback it's because he's tucking a large napkin into his shirt okay and just go hog lot every time This is my key for this game is as contact the authorities.

1:12:44This is elder reviews. Like you gotta, you gotta call somebody. All right. It might rain, you know, it's like rain chance of like severe thunderstorms. We might see Phillip rivers, like in the slop. Like he's, he's gonna be a wet 45 year old. I get tickets. Byron Murphy Leonard Williams.

1:13:00Ben Solak:It's 44, not 45. Don't age our man. Another year. Nine of the Seahawks 11 starters on defense were not yet in the league with the rivers last played. it's just it isn't all right well that's not i mean there what it's obviously going to be a million handoffs and a time to throw of 1.02 seconds so which is by the way seattle's got to be like the best defense against quick game in the nfl without i mean yeah and and like i went to miss tackled numbers seahawks are top three and and and no no tackles missed defensively because that's the thing here is just get the guys down right there's going to be so much jonathan taylor design touch you saw even when leonard went in and in the hypothetical which is leonard it's gonna be rivers but you saw when leonard went in there was a lot of quick michael pitman throws right say okay like let's let's you know kind of try to chunk our way down the field with yards after the catch seahawks are just so good at closing the devon witherspoon game that he's played against atlanta you would you would think can we talk about it because i feel like the nick eamon warrior he's been great yes give me a worry and he had a couple first of all the uh pick is because of an insane play yes insane play witherspoon nobody's talking about it When Alton goes in motion, both Eman Wari and Witherspoon start to move, and then Witherspoon has to hustle back.

1:14:12I'm not sure if Eman Wari was even supposed to go with the motion. So Witherspoon might be covering for his mistake and then generates a PBU that gives an interception to him. He's unbelievable.

1:14:20Ben Solak:His football IQ is crazy to me. Crazy. I feel like in the ZX defense, nobody talks about the players. And then Eman Wari is like the shiny toy, but it's kind of like, wow, they're such a well-coached unit and they do a lot of interesting stuff and they get pressure with four. But he's a star. Definitely is a star. And Iman Wari gets it because it's so easy to draw the Kyle Hamilton line. But before there was Iman Wari, the guy who made it work last year, in terms of the 11th player, the skeleton key, was Witherspoon. And Witherspoon still has all that ability. Witherspoon plays a second and nine, up 19 against Kirk Cousins in week 13, as if it's the last play of the goddang Rose Bowl.

1:15:07It is unbelievable the level of intensity that he brings, and it very clearly has an effect on everybody else on the team. He is like a coach's dream in terms of how he behaves on the field.

1:15:18Ben Solak:So complete. First of all, yeah, my favorite thing to do on film is to watch every play which Devin Witherspoon has been vaguely involved till the end. Because I guarantee you it's a mortal lock at the end of every play. you will see him standing over the defender on the just a hairs away from getting a taunting penalty and and doing something like just like clenching his every entire body um he's such a complete player at his size his run defense his he can play man and zone his coverage abilities he's an unbelievable blitzer as well like he's amazing so i'm first i'm sleeping on him this year He should be an all pro.

1:16:03Yeah. His first team nickel. He's like, I guess he's on my sheet. Like it was one of the first names I wrote down.

1:16:08Ben Solak:Inside outside. Does it all. Yeah. He can be weaponized based on matchups. He played, he plays Kyle pits pound for pound. He's giving him like, like 55 pounds and he plays in strength to strength. That game was like a match. Yeah. So anyway, the culture is right. Make your tackles close behind the line of scrimmage. you know if this if if the cold score points on the seahawks it's going to be because of hidden yardage so just come with that level of intensity they typically do on the other side of the ball like lou anarumo disguise coverages sam donald right now had a bit of a confidence crisis like there are some weird shenanigans turnover heavy days colts pass rush isn't good enough though over the course of four quarters to disrupt sand the white you two seahawks are deservedly two touchdown favorites i was encouraged by donald's bounce back in the second half too because at the beginning you're like we're gonna get another one and you know he's coming off of two bad weeks but i i did think that was encouraging to see him and then obviously jsn went crazy no but i jsn against this terry's word has another concussion this secondary there's no one who can you know the moment shaheed house that second half pump return or take a couple return sam was like okay cool a lead i know how to play with this like yeah it feels very nice here we go a lead okay uh We got one, two, three more games.

1:17:25Ben Solak:Okay, Rams, Lions is huge. Let's live in this. Mine is easy. I mean, so, okay. Sorry, scrolling down, scrolling down. Yeah, so I am on the Rams here. This is just throw it around the yard. I mean, it's very hard for me to imagine. Could be wrong here. so I got always careful the line secondary stopping these Rams pass catchers in its current state um branches out you get Kirby Joseph back which is huge but last few weeks DJ Reed and Meek Robertson lots of tough moments and here comes trouble

1:18:17Ben Solak:it's funny because I actually feel it's it's interesting because the way we were just talking about Devin with their spoon I knew Niku is a more you know bigger star or whatever but it's a lot of the same feeling I get which is a perfect football player yeah just like coach's dream it's just crazy like he's so his physical abilities and play strength make no sense and then now that you couple that with route running ability downfield catch radius all of it he's just become the total package so uh yeah I mean let's let's stay on this side of the ball if you don't mind for a second like is there anything detroit can do because i'm going heavy pass um it'll be interesting to see how much they lean into the 13 personnel stuff detroit backers on the field but they don't need to yeah detroit already gives you base all the time so this is the game to go 11 and to take advantage of the base i think you don't need to manufacture the base snaps i will say to the man coverage point puka and davante neither player is a run away from you player right there's a great physicality you know davante with the releases but neither one is a top speed dude right and so you're going to play in physical you're going to press them you're expected contested catch puka is going to win six of the most ridiculous catches you've ever seen but you can limit talk about hidden yardage the ability to kind of turn those into big big big plays accordingly like that creates more more snaps and it's more opportunities for pressure on stafford when they've played mcveigh the last couple of games they played at the end of the 23 regular season then the start of the 20 or excuse me 23 postseason and then the 24 regular season they've had good pressure plans for them right they blitz the motion a lot they make stafford move off his spot quickly, but they're just not as good of a pressure team as they need to be right now.

1:19:54Next Gen Stats had a great stat where I think they're sixth right now in terms of team pressure rate, but they're the second longest time to pressure the Lions are. So if you're not going to blitz, which Calvin Shepard is doing less than Aaron Glenn did, then it's just too much time for Stafford in the pocket. If you're not getting home with the pressure, three seconds, 3.25 seconds, he's on his third read. He's on his fourth read. He's killing you. And so the key is, all right, you're going to press the guys. They're not going to get 70 yards on you. They're just going to get 20. Can you get enough snaps where you get Stafford down?

1:20:21You create third and longs? You got to play the variance game here.

1:20:24Ben Solak:I'm not convinced either, but I think you got to just kind of go for it. It's already such a mismatch on the back end. At least your only chance in this one is getting Stafford down. I would be pretty aggressive. Did you have a key on the other side? I do, yeah. I suspect I know what it is. so uh i when they play i'll never forget this game that is the first chris shula game it was 2024 week one the lions walked down and had a 67 success rate on the ground chris shula said look at my light boxes and ben ben johnson that's very nice watch this right and they and there were very few explosive runs the first 10 plus yard run was in overtime but they just leaned on them all the way down the field and it had the wonderful additional benefit of keeping matthew stafford the offense on the sideline and shortening the game that was for like the 24 lines that was the elite lines for these lions critical that we minimize the number of drives that you have right that carolina panthers approach panthers were getting killed defensively we had a red zone takeaway we had an in the field takeaway and we only gave you eight drives so you can only put so many points on the board 11 minute time and position advantage in the second half right so that's got to be the game plan exactly like stafford is mvp he deserves mvp consideration and mvp consideration defensively means we want you on the white we want you sitting on the bench enjoying the weather and so got to be able to run the football in this one dominantly now crystal's run defense dramatically improved 25 to 24 right big ups nate layman at linebacker big ups puna for puna right of the pot a defensive tackle safety right cam curl cam kinshitz they have really good fitters from the third level if you go and you look into the numbers they're unbelievable against zone they're really good against duo the runs that hit a gap point of attack runs power counter trap or we just we choose a jared burson go adam right we choose aside a tight end and go those ones are more league average and the lines would tend to be more of a zone and duo team but they can get to their power runs and be very successful with no sam laporta especially like that's the guy you want in the split zone flow and they'll play action i'd really like to see them be uh not only a downhill team but be a a polar team be a gap running team and get jameer gibbs on a straight line into the second level that's where that's where you're going to succeed on offense you think gibbs because i i actually wrote down montgomery game question mark so it was a huge montgomery game the first time i think while stylistically this is more of a dave montgomery game than a jameer gibbs game i do think the talent difference between the two backs right now is enough that like every game is kind of a jameer gibbs game and i still love dave montgomery and he's still like he has his runs like he had that 30 yarder there against the team that they played recently anyway uh they have four rushing touchdowns because the cowboys but jameer gives us just like he's just a cut above to the where like I want every game to kind of be a gives game on the ground.

1:23:07They've been using him a ton as a receiver though. I think that also is viability in this game.

1:23:11Ben Solak:That is interesting how they've been doing that. Right? Because yeah, it's a little bit. I mean, he is. He's got Christian McCaffrey target share numbers since the like week 10. I want to say it is like they've really, really dialed it up. The until this year, I would have said throwing to your backs against the Rams has always been their Achilles heel, but they've been much better against it this season. they've been getting better linebacker play in coverage generally it's a very complete defense um but yeah i think a world in which detroit pulls this off is one that's very similar to the panthers game yeah i really went in and i thought that like the rushing success rate defensively for the rams is going to be like 13th it's like fifth like they're really good the panthers game is a bit of an aberration but i had the same feeling you did watching it which was the defensive linemen are very, very good, but they're a little bit small inside, first of all, outside.

1:24:03Ben Solak:And the Panthers did a really good job of creating gaps for, I figured it was Hubbard or Dowdle. It was a both game. Hubbard had the bigger game, but like Dowdle, when he went in, was still having like those grindy, grindy runs. It was, you know, seven yards, six yards, eight yards. You can do that, right? And that's what it's going to be. That's their safeties are so good. It's really hard to get the third level in this defense, but you can get to the first through the first level. Yeah. Well, you know, it's different when you got Jameer Gibbs to your point. Um, I don't like this for Detroit at all.

1:24:36Ben Solak:If they ever get to third. It's a great interior rush, both from the players and also the way they stunt and they get guys on the guard. And then we talked about how you attack these Rams corners. You want to do it with size. And just the one thing about a Monroe, St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and this receiver room is that they do not win physical one-on-ones on the outside. This is a game where Forbes and Kobe Durant are better in this game as opposed to other matchups. Yeah, we talked about that on Tuesday. Yeah, I'm taking the Rams here. I think the Rams win the game. Detroit's a very hard team to calibrate to.

1:25:09We've talked about it a lot with how do the corners have the lights out players or do they not? There's, you know, five and a half is a big line, but I think the Rams win it.

1:25:17Ben Solak:It's in LA. Jared Goff. Revenge game part four. whatever you define all right this one it's like whatever beautiful weather in la of note as always very nice out uh so that's not a factor for golf okay it's gonna be a factor at the end uh i'll be quick on vikings cowboys oh no we're both doing guys cowboys so i won't be why did i choose us i'm i'm only doing uh dolphins stealers okay uh vikings cowboys i have the cowboys here um I think this is a big Javante Williams game. That's my take here. Minnesota Vikings defense, I think in their past defense, both in terms of the pressures and then the zone coverage as they play on the back end, can do a decent job of limiting Dallas.

1:26:07Ben Solak:Will they? I don't know. So every now and then, Georgia Pickens decides to be the best receiver in the world. But I'm just saying, on that end, I'm a little bit less worried. The run defense, though, I think, which has been a vulnerability, all season long is something that Dallas can really take advantage of. Running the football between the tackles, Minnesota is 27th in success rate. Dallas, meanwhile, when they run the football between the tackles, is 5th in success rate. I think Clayton Adams is going to be a massive factor in this game. I think Minnesota is going to also encourage Dallas to run the ball, just structurally.

1:26:44Ben Solak:right so i just think there will be if you know they could put together a pretty efficient day on the ground that keeps stack out of making any mistakes against the brian flores past defense yeah the the availability of cd lamb in this game is a really really big one right cd lamb goes down with the concussion he's in the protocol right now we don't know what it's going to be you know we haven't gotten wednesday practice reports yet however we have seen many times over the course of Dak Prescott's career, how stuck this offense can get right with him at the helm when they don't have two dudes when they just have the one dude.

1:27:19CD Lamb missed those three games week four, five and six. And there was a dramatic drop off in the passing game, right? George was not yet the receiver that we know Pickens to be right. Ryan Florent, he's been on a nice number three for them was not yet that spot in the roster. And so this was a while ago. But if I'm Brian Flores, and I get no CD Lamb, I now have the ability to cloud coverage to George Pickens. And critically, because Pickens doesn't run like a huge variety of rounds from a huge variety of alignments, clouding him can be really, really successful, right? We can just get two bodies there on the slant.

1:27:48We can get two bodies there on the go ball and force the targets in other directions and just, okay, Kavante Turpin, Jake Ferguson, and Ryan Flournoy beat us. And that's just, that's, that's a much better world to live in, right?

1:27:58Ben Solak:Careful, Ryan Flournoy. Yeah. Out of Southeast Missouri. I was a Flournoy fan coming out. I got my stock on Flournoy, but it's, you know, it's a much better world to live in. as a Steady Lamb fantasy manager watching him go crazy. But this is a classic game where like the Vikings, who always are the best splits team on first down and do more than anybody else. This is like with how the Cowboys pass the ball on first down, especially how they run the ball out of the gun. You've got, you're going to see a ton of insane stuff on first down from Flores because the Cowboys aren't going to be like, we're going to get into 12 personnel and make you put a front on the field and like run you out of it.

1:28:30No, they run from 11, they run from the gun. So you can be very, very, very designery in terms of getting the back stuck in the end of protection in terms of getting penetration against these runs. And then you can get them to the third and long and then force somebody other than George to beat you. And so there's, there's a nice path here for the Vikings defense has been playing much better as of late on the other side of the ball. It's awful. And it, I don't care. They scored 31 points. It's still really, really, really bad, but defensively, I like it.

1:28:52Ben Solak:Commanders. Steve, I said this last week. I think actually wait. I think I, my exact words were JJ McCarthy. It will never be easier for you. Um, JJ had a quote for the game and he was like, Everything came together. I'm just really frustrated this never happened sooner. It's like, yeah, you didn't play Washington. That's why it didn't happen sooner. You had to play other defenses. They've quietly become a little bit better at running the football, too. That was the offseason plan. It just took a while to actually get the plan off the ground. I think they can challenge Dallas in that way. But yeah, the Dallas defense is much better than Washington.

1:29:33Ben Solak:I'm taking Dallas here for that reason. Dallas should win. the McCarthy performance is still nothing like to me he's still like just like an auto fade a lot of space in the secondary though so this is a good good day to make me eat my words this is the day to pepper Justin Jefferson there are no good corners here you should be able to do it I just I don't know the opportunities I'm not holding a candle for it uh okay finally it's me Dolphin Steelers um Aaron Rodgers coming off of his best performance of the season i am going to focus on the other side of the ball for those who have not been watching the miami dolphins they have the most what's the adjective i'm looking for it's a sicko that's exactly what i was thinking of it's disgusting their run game is insane some of the things that they are doing week to week i actually struggle the verbiage to just the the words to describe some of it's an offense to football it's cheese it's flag football plays but it's also like second honorable i don't know it it's very very cool it would piss me off if they were like 12 and 3 and doing it but the fact like six and seven means it's crazy because mike mcdaniel a few years ago when he the fast motion and people were like whoa what did this what what they're doing in the past game is like never been done.

1:30:57Ben Solak:And then they solved it and they, everything fell apart and the whole team collapsed. And now he's like kind of doing it again at the front game, but no one cares because it's too late. Although it might save his job. Anyways, I bring that up to say that it's going to cause specific problems for the Steelers defense. First of all, this is a cold weather game. So we know they want to run the football and product the, by the way, the product. So, so I, sorry, I should say what they're doing. We should try to describe it. Yeah. Um, he is, they're putting multiple big bodies on the field sometimes in the backfield often in motion it's a lot of 21 22 with the ink gold but also i forget the tight ends names that they use but they're greg dolcich they have darren waller they have julian hill and hills impactful blocker and then they go jumbo with daniel brunskill and they'll motion him to fullback which is disgusting like weird escort motions from unexpected players and um and so and there's always a ton of backfield action and they're creating massive holes and then devon a chain is just like you know rocket field running back the result is they have the highest percentage of explosive runs in the league right now uh hn leads all backs in rushing yards over expected per carry they use motion of the highest range of you know uh the series struggle with all of this man like i'm i'd be worried if i'm pittsburgh very worried what this dolphins offense is putting on tape yeah there's a little bit of like a uh you know the dolphins running game makes your linebackers wrong and the steelers response is hey our linebackers have been wrong all season all right we we've been here anyway all right we're we're immune to this we cannot be fooled we've just been fooled from week one but the the level of like the the Steelers struggle dramatically in the second level with misdirection and the Dolphins entire running game is based off the idea of listen we're going to screw your second level over their chalk is done your first level might get penetration might be a one yard gain but if we can get past the first level we're already in the third level I love watching them from the next day from the end zone view perspective of the defense and trying to figure there's there's a reverse there's a reverse they run on the first drive to Jalen Waddle where two-o walks out he's in the pistol he's a back behind him and then he has a fullback to his right and then he has a second fullback also to his right more like these there's two more over and they the fullbacks like do like a whirly gig switch at the snap to like just draw eyes while the reverse is coming behind it and there's a young backer 53 for the the the jets i'm not gonna say his name francis mcgoa i don't know francis last name he the poor guy is just like he knows he's screwed he's just there patting his feet just like praying somebody tells him where the ball's going it's difficult man i literally write down i don't know how to describe this like i don't have the words to also man if i'm half the teams in the nfl more than half i'm very bummed at the prospect of mike mcdaniel keeping his job because it would have been a fast tire love to bring that man in to fix my run game um okay so yeah they're up against but but picksburg offensively i think could have success moving the ball in miami um i don't know if we're going to see that same Aaron Rodgers we saw last week every week where he's actually making plays under pressure and doing some stuff outside of structure but I

1:34:15then Pittsburgh Pittsburgh's favorite by three and a half it's pretty close part of me wants to pick Miami here is that crazy no I lean Miami I think Miami wins this game I think that the the absolute without question strongest unit in this group is the dolphins running game for sure and and this is something that i expect them to struggle with the strength of their run defense is that defensive tackle with cam hayward and derrick harman the the dolphins can choose not to make that matter by just living on the boundary right they run off tackle second only to the the falcons among all offenses in the league now it's two on a cold weather game he won his first game under 45 degrees last week against the jets congrats to uh it's also aaron rogers at 42 in the cold weather game i know that rogers like green bay loves cold weather but both these quarterbacks hate getting hit and their play falls off dramatically when they're getting a lot of pressure that gets exacerbated in cold weather when hits hurt more in the ground really hurts more and so this would be the sort of game where after quarter one i can tell you how it's going to go because it depends on who's getting knocked down whose pass rush is getting home the quarterback that gets to stay comfortable this one's going to be fine and so a lot of it's going to be who accumulates hits in the first half that pay dividends in the second i think like when

1:35:20Ben Solak:I visualize I'm either seeing Aaron Rodgers on the ground looking super mad or I'm seeing Tua throwing a backbreaking interception if the Steelers can get them into third round. One of those things is going to happen. Maybe both. Probably both. Yeah. Yeah. Sorry, Tua Friday, away from Mike. Yeah. I just don't believe in this Steelers run defense. So I'm going to stick with that even though. Dolphins mathematically not eliminated from the playoffs. Fun fact. Let's check in this week. the Dolphins run game is probably like a top five yeah thing for me to watch every week we should should acknowledge Devon H.A.

1:35:59did leave that game the fit if he was apparently the line that would well the line was that he could have come back in an emergency they're being really cautious with him and obviously Jalen Wright and Ollie Gordon were also still going off um excuse me positive okay yeah nation is expected to play in this game so we should be we should be okay now But yeah, so long as they have the backs available and then they get waddle the ball off quick hitters, off of like RPOs and stuff. They get them in space against these corners. Not a fast group there in Pittsburgh. I think it's a couple of big plays that puts the Dolphins out of reach of the Steelers.

1:36:29Ben Solak:I should post some of these runs we've been talking about because they're so nuts. Yeah, I posted the Jalen Waddle reverse because it's just a filthy, filthy, filthy play. There's just so many people moving. okay uh that's it for this week we'll be back next week with dominique to recap that game uh and uh in a couple weeks ben and i will be doing the week of christmas week 17. uh ben is there anything that folks should check out read my column like go to my twitter account watch the dolphins reverse that's the most important thing to me right now it's it's special it's special stuff uh thank you to ben of course thank you as always to omaha productions kirsten sebecki owen saylor jack foster tucker tashen you can watch the show on youtube youtube.com slash i mean it kimes where you can also watch my other podcast viewer discretion with david denis jr where we'll be discussing pluribus that we're on that show which i'm loving uh then the week after that we're doing fallout too as well in addition to pluribus which is another show i I really like.

1:37:36Ben Solak:You can check out the show Instagram at Instagram.com slash I'm Enik Himes, where I put out my weekly power rankings. I felt pretty good about last week's rankings, by the way. Last week, this was ahead of the weekend. I went Rams, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, Packers, in that order. We're about to find out. Four or five as they're playing each other. It's nice. It's helpful. Yeah, that'll be instructive. Well, I got to do the rankings before they play, unfortunately. All right. Thank you so much everybody See you next week