Lamar Jackson is Back, Son! Previewing Every Week 8 Game

30:35But I kind of think that's regardless of whether it's Mack Jones or Brock Purdy. I love tennis or Houston in the past game against this team. But can they even get to those situations is my question. So I think they're going to have to stop Christian McCaffrey on early downs. Yeah. I mean, my key was how much Christian McCaffrey is too much because I think we're going to find that line in this game. 48.5 % of San Francisco's rushing attempts and targets in Week 7 were McCaffrey. He's at a league high 41.6 for the season. Like you said, seven runs at 10 or more yards against the Falcons. And it wasn't him.

31:14It was him a little bit doing a lot where he was following his blocking really well. But I think this was the best blocking performance that we saw from San Francisco. So run blocking for the season. So I think you just kind of look at Trent Williams, just still out there, just leading the way, pulling off the line. He can probably do that till he's like 90 at some point. But I think that is one of the things that I think you can just get the Texans with how aggressive they are in that front four too. And I think that's why they're a little bit worse against the run than you would expect. Cause it's just kind of some of those successful runs that they can get because that defensive line just kind of wants to fire off the ball.

31:56So I think, yeah, that is going to be the key for San Francisco if they can continue to just kind of get those small gains, keep the successes going on the ground and lean on McCaffrey, which I think they can in this game. It's a great point about the aggression of the defensive line. You know, I talked about this a little bit earlier in the week, but against the Falcons, who also have a very aggressive front, They just killed them with gap runs, power over and over in that game. And to your point, Williams, I thought McKibbitts was also – the whole offensive line, I was kind of like, wow, they blocked so well in that.

32:32And I think for San Francisco, the same formula kind of applies, even though the Texans aren't a blitz-happy defense. You just got to stay out of third and long against this team. Did you have a different angle for San Francisco, or are you on the offense? No, that was my just overuse of Christian McCaffrey, yeah. What do you think about, so the Niners defense against Atlanta, like, managed to put together, like, a really impressive performance, given all the injuries, you know, these young players, Bethune, Lucas, making plays. However, I mentioned this after the game, or maybe I think earlier on NFL Live, it was kind of a, I felt like the Falcons, the predictability of the Falcons offense really played into San Francisco's hands, which is to say the fact that they don't throw over the middle of the field or use play action, which are things that Tampa had a lot of success against them without Fred Warner.

33:30Those are things Houston wants to do. And when it's been clicking, you have seen like the in breakers and the play action game, like against Baltimore a couple of weeks ago. Do you think that they're going to be able to take advantage of San Francisco's potential weaknesses in the middle of the field? Or do you think the, you know, the issues with the Houston's offensive line will prevent that from being a factor? Yeah. I mean, if they can, I'm completely giving up on Houston this season and like having any optimism about the offense. It is interesting because, you know, San Francisco 31st in pressure rate overall and have just lost Bryce Huff, who was the only one getting pressure.

34:14So it was like, You could maybe continue to get that, but man, it's just so tough for the injuries. They use enough sims and stunts with Robert Sala, who's been just, I think he's been just kind of scheming his ass off for most of the season, good and bad sometimes. But I think they have the second highest stunt rate per Cody Alexander match quarters. And I think you can still get to the Houston offensive line in that way, because they are still trying to figure out how to communicate along the line. And I think that's where you have continued to see some of the trouble there. So especially, I think Nico Collins and Christian Kirk both not practicing.

34:54So I don't know. I think there is just enough that the Niners can continue to scheme up against this offense specifically that I think could potentially give them trouble. And then I think we've just kind of seen CJ Stroud, once he thinks that something's not going to work, he kind of has turned into this quarterback that like, I'm screwed. I need to try to do something. We saw that on the weird, almost safety. It was definitely safety he took, but then it turned into a not safety. I think we've seen that at a couple of times with him where it is clearly just messing with his process, which was so good during his rookie season.

35:33I think just that we've seen over the past two years, when he thinks that pressure is going to get through and the offensive line is not going to be what it should be in front of him, it's really made him play worse than it should. I'm going to take San Francisco in this, and I don't like it because I think the Texans defense is like good enough to pull this off. But I just think the coaching advantage that I just think Kyle Shanon, well, D 'Amico versus Kyle Shanon is really fascinating and that's going to be fun to watch. It's the other side, yeah. That I'm like, ooh, man, I do not love what I've seen from Houston this year.

36:15So, yeah. How about you? Yeah, I was going to win San Francisco, but I also feel like we've agreed. on too many. Yeah, I'm still going to take San Francisco. They've done it. So they shouldn't have won as many games that they have so far. And they continue to do it. So I think I'm just going to put trust in them. I think if it was another offense, maybe I wouldn't feel the same way. But I do think schematically, I think they can take advantage of some of the things that Houston is going to do. So I will be in San Francisco in this game. I also don't like Houston if they have a weakness linebacker position.

36:52So I think it's where you know i love houston against defense their offenses with elite receivers although jsn you know got to work but um that's not how san francisco is built i think they actually can take advantage of the weaknesses on this defense all right final game before we take a break i gave you brown's patriots the uh the drake may mvp i don't know maybe that's a little much but yeah so that like that that's my key i want to see drake may against a real defense because so far the past defenses he's faced ranked 15th 32nd 18th 23rd 21st 28th and 25th um the browns are still only 14th in past defense dvoa so they are not the best past defense in the league you know they're first against the run but i think this is just going to still be a tougher test than we've seen this Patriots passing offense have over the first really half of the season.

37:50When you look at, the Browns aren't playing as much man as they have in the past, but they're still playing a lot of cover one. Against cover one so far per FCMA is averaging 10.7 yards per attempt, which is a yard higher than Lamar Jackson in second. He's first in EPA per drop back in DVOA against cover one. Stephon Diggs, 27 % target share. He has been their man coverage beater. But then you also have Booty, who has the big plays against man coverage when he's able to win on some of those busts. Nine catches on 10 targets with three touchdowns. So I think it's just one of those things where you're really going to test this Brown secondary.

38:28And if there's a big play to be had, New England's going to take it. I really like your point about the stylistic aspect of this. because so last year the Patriots faced a ton of man coverage because nobody feared them right this year defenses have really backed off as they've realized they've got like a big boy passing attack now and it's actually like yet last week you saw finally they were able to run the ball a little bit because the Titans played like a ton of quarters and um I think like this one I don't expect the Browns to change up their tendencies and there's an opportunity here for some pretty big plays in the passing game from Drake May.

39:07You mentioned Diggs versus man coverage. Last week he threw him a fade, and it was backed up in their own end zone, and he just pinned it on him. And Diggs has become, he's earned that trust from him. You can see their relationship really come to fruition in moments like that where it's like, cool, man coverage is actually pretty decent coverage. I'm just going to put it in pin it on you back shoulder and trust that you're going to win. And I think it's such a massive development. Booty's the go ball guy for sure. He'll take the top off, but I love the role that digs displaying in this defense or offense.

39:48And I love what it's done for Drake may who top three deep ball thrower in the NFL right now. I feel pretty comfortable saying, um, I think one of the things I love the most about watching him throw deep and he did a zillion times against the Titans, you know, the Browns is going to be a lot of man coverage. So there'll be a lot of like, OK, I like my matchup with booty or digs and whatever. But a lot of his throws deep. And this is really what jumped out to me when I got to the Titans film are like he has such a good understanding of zone coverage, like the whole shot to Hollins that he hit down the sideline.

40:24I think Diggs also had another big play that was a it was like an over versus cover three and Diggs who's a professional wide receiver you know such a good job of settling into the zone but when I watch May I just feel like oh he knows he is seeing the field really well it's not just like softening with young quarterbacks you know when they're bombing it it's just go balls down the sideline and that's not the case with him like he is throwing all over the field different coverages really good understanding of what he's seeing and oh by the way he's got a cannon and he the time guys in his face it's just i mean patriots fans i just cannot stress enough how happy you should be right now is what you're saying yeah and even if it is you know taking advantage of bad defenses a little bit like that's what a good quarterback should be doing so i don't see it as quite as much of a negative as i think some people are trying to like they haven't played anybody but fine uh you know you should be taking advantage to the extent that he is uh and kind of when you look at just kind of what they're doing you know but personnel wise too they're they're mixing up a whole bunch of things and like he has not gotten a lot of support from the ground game for most of this season so the fact that so much of the offense has really been on his shoulders I think is is great and like this is again going to be the probably the biggest test he's had so far uh but he might not have like a really big test for for the rest of the season like Aaron shots posted that um if the ratings stay as they are which which they won't a new england will have like the easiest schedule that that he's ever seen i think in the dvoa era so it's just one of those things but again you you play who you have in front of you and drake may is just objectively playing incredible football the other thing you got to watch with all the man coverage too is like him running you know he's had a few really big scrambles against tennessee those were interesting because they weren't playing man on most of them.

42:14They were playing quarters, and Drake may just solve the voids and grass in front of him. But that's something you've got to walk it out for playing him. I'm taking Peyton New England. I think they're a good football team. Barely talked about the defense. Maybe I'll do that next week. But, yeah, I think that they are legit. How about you? Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I'm there with New England. Really quickly for Browns fans before we move on here, I think for their side of the ball New England's run defense I think is pretty decent to me this actually is not a bad styles make fights game for them because I think the Gabriel offense, the quick game that actually might be pretty effective against New England I don't know, we'll see I read South somewhere, Shador not practicing as a backup starter or something I don't know so they don't appear to be considering a quarterback change anytime soon.

43:09I wouldn't. I think Gabriel's been playing fine. I would keep it going. Yeah. Build on that. All right. Let's take a break, come back, and talk about the rest of the games. As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Grainger has your back. From professional-grade products you can count on to fast, dependable delivery, they are there to help you keep things running smoothly. Plus, their technical product specialists are here to help answer your toughest questions. And because Grainger knows safety is always a priority, they're committed to being your partner in protecting both your people and your facilities.

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44:16Game day at my place is kind of a big deal. If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor patio setup better be ready to play. That's where Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grilling accessories, Wayfair's got it all, and it shows up fast. I'm talking championship level fast and easy delivery. So level up your grill game and your outdoor chill game and head to wayfair.com now to get your outdoor space ready for the season. All right, we're back. I only gave this game to myself, but I regret that because I think it's actually a massive game. And like we could talk about it.

44:55We obviously both talk about it. But Giants Eagles, right? The more I've been thinking about this, it's so quick after the last game. But actually, this is the first rematch of the season, I believe, if I have that right, because, yeah, I think so, which I love. We love the rematch because it gives us actual things to look at. And so this is my game. I'll go first. You know, I'm just starting with the Eagles defense, which is with Jalen Carter and Quinian Mitchell back in the lineup, can you come up with a better plan defensively for Jackson Dart? I think that was what so shocked me kind of going back and looking at some of my notes.

45:39You know, some of it. So, you know, it was, this was the big Jackson Dart breakout Thursday night game and he was excellent in it, but going back and looking, there were things that couldn't be helped. Like they attacked QA Ringo, obviously, which is the smart thing to do a million times, but there were also like okay so they blitzed him a ton and he killed it they they blitzed him 46 percent of the time and he went nine for 13 for 99 yards and a touchdown and going back and looking it was a combination of like him routinely getting finding his right answers extending a little bit but the blitz was also just like really ineffective the pass rush was pretty awful in this one the run defense was atrocious.

46:25Cam Scadaboo rushed for 98 yards and a 53 % success rate. And then they seem to have no plan for dart as a scrambler, 13 carries for 58 yards. So it was, again, they were hamstrung down their two most important players on defense, obviously. But Dan, like going back and like reading some of my notes, I just had like big question marks next to all the dart scrambles. Like some of these plays, it just felt like Philly went into that super unprepared. And And I'm interested in seeing what Vic Fangio does this time around with those two players actually playing. Yeah, that is definitely like, it's just kind of one of those things where you didn't really know what Jackson Dart was going to do, I guess.

47:06So it took him by surprise a little bit. But even then, he was just, when he saw space, he ran. And I think that is still probably a way you could do that a little bit unless they try to spy him at some point. But, you know, then that kind of changes what you really do with your linebackers because you want to be, or at least the Eagles want to be bringing one of those guys like up to the line of scrimmage to get either those five-man fronts or just have, you know, some of the blitzes that they've been doing with them. So I am going to be very interested to see what the change-ups are, because also I think the Giants have been doing a pretty good job of scheming around what Dart can do.

47:52Even last week, and probably one of the bad things about the Giants is they are doing a pretty good job of that, and then they're still losing outside of the Eagles game. but it is kind of one of those things where, you know, you kind of know what his strengths are. You're going to be still doing some of the play action and the RPOs. I think that might be able to kind of slow down the Eagles in space a little bit. The thing is that, you know, the Giants don't really have anyone to throw at cornerback two. They don't have anyone to throw at cornerback one. So I think like that's going to be tough.

48:25So it is just kind of one of the things where the Giants just don't have the horses, but it seems like they just have been able to get a few things going. They've been able to find some guys in space. I think the tight ends have been a big thing that I think we saw last week where they're able to use those a little more. And yeah, if they can stop it on the ground, I think we still kind of see them test the Eagles on the ground in this game because I think that's probably the most reliable part of, one, the offensive line for the Giants, and then being able to kind of rely on Scadabo just running into people.

49:05Like that dude lowered his shoulder like three yards into the end zone last week after he scored a touchdown. So, you know, you just never know what he's going to try to do to try to, you know, create some extra yards out for contact. Yeah, I do like the Giants on the ground in this one. And I think it's a vulnerability for Philadelphia. Some of that is structural, right? The way they play. But I'm like, I think I've already said that. Like, I'm in on Scadaboo. I don't think it's like, he's become such like more mean than man that it's honestly, I think gotten a little bit overshadowed that he's just like a good back.

49:41Like he creates above and beyond routinely. And every time I watch him, I'm like impressed anew. So Dart has been very good against the Blitz outside of that game, by the way. That was the thing that impressed me, too, in the Broncos game. I thought he did a pretty good job of picking apart Denver's pass rush here and there. So I think for Vic, you want to disguise your pressures. I don't think you want to just send standard Blitzes his way and play man behind that. I think you have to come with a better plan for him as a scrambler. and like you said you know you I don't think that the run defense is going to stonewalk Sadu but you can't let him run the way he did in the last game on the flip side we're coming off of Jalen Hurts's best game of the season Eagles still can't run the ball but it did not matter against Minnesota because he just threw it all over the yard um let me ask you this was there anything you saw in Hertz's performance against Minnesota that feels like obviously sustainable?

50:51Or do you think it was just him going, as he sometimes does, just going nuclear through the air, deadly accurate, and then AJ Brown and Devante Smith just destroying dudes downfield? Yeah, I think it's somewhat both, where it just feels like it's something that Jalen Hertz just does sometimes, but it also feels sustainable. So like, why aren't you doing it more? And I think like that is continues to be the frustrating thing about the Eagles offense, where you do have these guys who can just win one-on-one, whether it is AJ Brown or whether it is, you know, Devante Smith, where it just seems like that it wasn't part of the game plan to get those guys involved down the field.

51:31And that seems like if I was the offensive coordinator who knew nothing about football. Like that would be the first thing I would put in the Eagles playbook to be like, let me get these two guys who can just run past anyone down the field. So I do think we will see this a little more because the Giants secondary still hasn't really been holding up. Cardo Flott has played really well. Outside of that, I really don't trust anyone in that Giants secondary. So I do think that is something you'll be able to do. Like we said, the run defense, the Giants are one of the two teams that are the worst in yards before contact and yards after contact.

52:05So if Barkley can't get going here, then I really kind of worry about what this offensive line at like not full strength, like you have guys playing, but not everyone is playing super healthy. And that was just kind of what they were able to do last year. This offensive line is better than you. We are going to create holes and Barkley is just going to be able to run through them. And that just hasn't been there this year. So, and then they haven't been reliant on trying to make up for it by gaining explosives in the passing game. But I I think if there's a switch that has been switched in this game where they do realize they can get more from some of those explosives in the passing game by throwing downfield, I think that's something they should easily take advantage of in this game.

52:48Yeah, Jalen Hurts in the last game, this was I think around – I mean, this was kind of around the time everybody was panicking about the Eagles, but he was pressured. I want to pull this up. He wasn't actually pressured that much, which is kind of 18 % of dropbacks, which was sort of surprising to me, but he kind of struggled comparatively. I just feel like A.J. Brown and Devontae Smith are such a mismatch for, like you said, this secondary, just find a way to throw him the ball. I don't know. Smith in particular, he might be the key to this whole thing, right? Because with AJ, you definitely want to throw him the ball.

53:35And even if it's tight man coverage, you still want to throw him the ball. But Devontae, to me, is the guy who's just going to give you – he just gets open in a way that's so different. Right. I think watching him this last week against Minnesota on tape, like it is remarkable and you don't really see it until later when you get to see him on tape. He is, I feel like wide receivers must like him the best watching him the best of anyone in the NFL, because he's just like, it's just like teach tape. He's such a clinician, his releases, the little head fakes, just the way he gets leverage. And I mean, he's an unbelievably gifted route runner.

54:25And the fact that he hasn't had like a big break, you know, that he's not been as, there's so much attention to AJ, but I was watching this last week and I was thinking Devontae's the dude who gets open all the time. There's no reason why he shouldn't get a massive target share every week. Yeah, it's just one of those things where both of them could. You could run and be 20%, 25 % for both of those guys and still have targets to give. So I don't really understand what they have been trying to do. I just think they've been just kind of ultra conservative and trying to get the RPO game and things going, and that just hasn't been something that's efficient or working enough.

55:12And so the giants are 26th in allowing completions of over 20 or more area yards that are allowing 45.5 % of, of deep throws to be completed against them. So if that's just not a heavy part of this game plan, I'm not sure what it is like, go back to what Jalen hurts does really well. He's a good deep thrower when it's open and that is part of the progression. So it is like, I think if they are not leaning on that against the giants, I would be very surprised and also very disappointed. uh on philly in this how about you yeah me too you have buck saints boy did i pick a bad week to come out as a spencer rattler supporter yeah uh so i'm looking i'm looking on the other side of the ball so like who does baker mayfield have to throw to and i think that's going to be just kind of an issue that we're going to continually see with uh the buccaneers for kind of the rest of the season.

56:10Egbuka played last week, but it was questionable leading up to the game. And he played pretty much all of the snaps, but there was still some kind of miscommunications. It just didn't look right. I think that might have been more of a Baker Mayfield thing than an Egbuka thing. I think so. Yeah, but outside of that, it's – Tess Johnson is fun, but is he going to be a reliable second receiver for an extended period of time? You have Sterling Shepard. You know, it might be a Cade Otten game. You had the most yards against the Lions. New Orleans is 28th in DVOA against tight ends. So like that just might be something where they lean a little more into, you know, some of the 12, some of the heavier looks.

56:50Maybe that helps the run game too that hasn't completely gotten going so far yet. So I just kind of want to know what the pass catchers look like and if that's something they can efficiently plan around. Because what it was supposed to look like in week one is not what it looks like mid through midway through the season yeah the baker in that one we didn't really get into it too much when we were talking about the lions defense but i did feel like they rattled him so much early on that his accuracy he was kind of affected the entire game right and he was like throwing high and they were like batted passes and that's what you've been able to get away from with baker because that was a thing that used that was old baker mayfield so i think we saw a little bit of that return so i am also curious if that you know is something that continues too it's um the bucks kind of we think about them in like a post mike evans but they've been in a post mike they haven't had mike evans and the offenses looked really good um and i don't think it's been like a smoke and mirrors offense either like i think igbuka has just been like legitimately great i do think josh grizzard is good grizzard and um you know i i i like their play action passing attack they're not really good at running the ball that's been an issue this year even when bucky irving was healthy i think some of that has to do with the offensive line injuries that's something i would like to see them stabilize a little bit because i think you know even book back even if godwin comes back if i really want to think of this team as like a playoff team that can go to toe-to-toe with likes of the lions and and whatnot in the nfc they got to be better running the football than they have thus far that said in this one i don't think the saints past defense is very good so i I think this could be a big Buka bounce back game.

58:33And then on the other side of the ball, no Hassan Redick, I believe, this week.

58:40But, man. Bratler just don't – it's just the bad decisions that came back too because he made some really impressive throws this last week. But you saw the return of the doing too much, which he hasn't been, and that was a bummer. So I would say for the Saints, if he can just play clean football again, they've got a chance in this one, I'm still going to take Tampa. Yeah, absolutely. Don't test Jamel Dean coming off as a cover to the corner. That's apparently the most dangerous play in football right now. He's playing super fun. Yeah, I'm on Tampa Bay too. If you've shopped online, chances are you've bought from a business powered by Shopify.

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1:01:22And when you book at LaQuinta.com, you can earn Wyndham Rewards points with every qualified stay. Tonight, LaQuinta. Tomorrow you shine. Terms and conditions apply. Cowboys-Broncos. I took this one. The Cowboys offense versus the Broncos defense is maybe my most anticipated matchup of Week 8. I can't. This is like box office. I cannot wait to watch this. Dallas's offense has been unbelievable this year, and they did it without CeeDee Lamb, and then CeeDee Lamb came back in. So something that I find, and, you know, when CeeDee Lamb was back in the lineup, it looked exactly like we, against, again, a very bad commander's defense, but it looked like we expected, which is Javante Lamb's got a bunch of light boxes, right?

1:02:11And he just obliterated them, and, you know, it was a bounce-back game for him. um and of course lamb and pickens it's unreal i mean right now outside of brown and smith probably the second best duo i would say i mean higgins obviously they're playing with flacco so it's a little bit it's a little bit different but they've been unbelievable so what i'm interested in this um is how denver approaches this schematically i'm really fascinated to see the approach that Vance Joseph takes because he has shown a willingness to change things up week to week with this defense in terms of his pressures and his coverages so I look back at like their games this year against the two best offenses that are the more comparable ones that they played versus Indianapolis they played a ton of man coverage they blitzed Daniel Jones they gave Jonathan Taylor light boxes and they got punished for it against Philadelphia where they were much more successful.

1:03:10They played way more zone. They blitzed way less and they had a better time. So Dak this year has killed everything. He's been good against both bands, zoned, blitz, any way you slice it, Dak Prescott has been a top three quarterback. I do think, however, you probably get more zone in this one just because of the receivers. I just do not think you could play a high number amount of man coverage against a Stiles passing attack. Yeah, and especially the way it's set up where you would probably have to have somebody in the slot against CeeDee Lamb, which is not kind of the strength of what you're doing for Denver in man.

1:03:51And then you just have George Pickens outside on his own. So the Broncos kind of have the Eagles problem too, Riley Moss is 58th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap. But he also has the third lowest catch rate allowed among corners. So he's forcing incompletions, but when they're completed, it's usually a bust and it's a big play. So that is something I think you're going to look against. Uh, against the pickings is probably a matchup you're going to see there. I, it's interesting, like going back to, you know, when we saw how like blitz heavy, they were against Indianapolis, where it was just a lot of like five man fronts that I think they were trying to stop the run.

1:04:34So it wasn't a lot of like second level blitzing. So I think if they do potentially do a little more second level blitzing, not as much, because I don't think you're as worried about the run game for, uh, Dallas as you would be for indianapolis but dak wanted two quarterbacks along with daniel jones who has positive epa under pressure so even if you are doing that like dak has just been playing out of his mind uh so far this season i forgot to give 92 qbr against man coverage this year 67 against zone which is still good but definitely there's not an offense to play man against is and yeah i I, man, I was looking for weaknesses in terms of facing the Cowboys offense.

1:05:19And the best weakness I could come up with was kick them off the field because you get to play the Cowboys defense. And that arguably is maybe the more decisive factor here because let's talk about this. All right. So Bo Nix last week, nothing for three quarters. It wasn't all his fault. There were some drops, but he was bad too. yeah and then the fourth quarter just goes nuclear um so we were talking about it on nfl live and you know i've seen this like what is it what is it about him playing from behind like what are they doing how do we tap into this so i want to hear your thoughts but one thing that i i've been thinking is he he runs like a really training wheelsy offense uh sean payton and then he's kind of unleashed it's just they you know it's more no huddle he's slinging it around so i think it's it would be wrong to be like you just got to take the shackles off bone nicks because when payton does get draw up shots he's missing them early so it's not like he's this amazing quarterback who's just not being given opportunity but i have a theory that he might be and i think this is true of beneficial quarterbacks at times he might be the kind of player that has to like get into a rhythm and like you can't just ask him you know I think like the the low number of actual shots downfield he's taking might be contributing to how bad he is early on I know that sounds crazy because I'm not saying he's good at them but it just feels like this training wheels the offense is not working at all for them and it would behoove them to open things up a little bit early on he's been better in empty he's been better on you know when trailing so give it a shot that's all i'm saying yeah it's a weird thing so i have here it's the complete inverse of last season where right now he's eighth in epa per drop back under pressure and he's 31st when not pressured and that was the complete opposite last year where he was everything he had to do was be kept clean and he was one of the worst quarterbacks under pressure so i think there is a little bit of that chaos that I think he kind of plays into a little bit where we have seen some of his best ball.

1:07:41But again, you know, we've, we've seen that earlier in the season where there are open shots late in the game where, you know, he potentially could be taking them and he's missed them. You know, there were even, you know, a couple of plays in this game where the, the touchdown he throws hits off one receiver goes into the other one. The, one of the deep throws to Mims was definitely not intended for Mims. So there was, there was just a lot going on in this game, but yeah, I still don't know exactly what to make of him and what this, this offense is or really should be. Cause I think in structure, in the ways that Sean Payton is putting it together, it should be working better than it has so far.

1:08:21And they haven't really been able to figure that out, you know, through the first half of the season.

1:08:30I cannot believe it in some ways, but I'm taking the Cowboys here. I just can't get those first three quarters of offense out of my mind, but I'm really open to having my mind changed because this Cowboys defense is bad. And I think, you know, Payton, there's so many things he can do to take advantage of their weaknesses in terms of stopping the run and then on the back end, the coverage bust and all of that. I just want to see it early in the game. I want to see this passing attack come alive. Whereas with Dallas, I just think that's a top five offense right now in the NFL. Yeah, I think it's one of those things where it's a great offense is going against a great defense.

1:09:15And I think I have the confidence in the offense to still be able to put things together and be efficient enough to, to move the ball where on the other side, it's a high variance offense against the bad defense. And I don't necessarily know if I trust the variance to work out in Denver's way. So yeah, I'm, I'm going to go Dallas also. Are we all the same? I think we have been so far. It's not great. All right. Titans Colts is just you. I, I struggled to find a key to this because like, is this going to be like chiefs Raiders? Like the next game of that? Like, I just don't know what the Titans can do.

1:10:02I mean, the one thing I kind of found is Tennessee isn't great against deep balls. So if Cam Ward is just going to go back and let them go, maybe. Oh yeah. Sorry. Indianapolis is bad against the ball. So that's really it. I have zero trust in the Tennessee defense stopping Indianapolis' offense, which has just been Crate's 13th best offensive DVOA through seven weeks since 1978, which is the DVOA era right now. They're just far and away first in yards per drive, points per drive, and just all of these efficient things. And they just have so many ways to win. I really don't see what Tennessee can do.

1:10:43Yeah, it's such a mismatch, both sides of the ball. I mean, with the Colts defense, there are vulnerabilities, and I think there are things that well-constructed, talented rosters go after. Unfortunately, the Titans are not that. I think for Cam Moore, the key, I mean, they're just Lou Anarumo is throwing so much crazy stuff at the wall every week, and it feels like a tricky matchup for a rookie quarterback when the titans the problem they don't have anything they're good at there's nothing it's not like well they can run the ball they can like even the browns you're like yeah you can run them all kind of um they got nothing so i don't know even what the baseline is for them at this point i they're gonna be an interesting team to watch by the way ahead of the trade deadline right like sorry i saw somewhere that everyone but ward and jeff Sibbins might be available.

1:11:40I don't know if there's anyone I want. Right. That's part of Tennessee's problem is they don't really have good players on the field right now. I don't know how much of that is going to be... He already released Tyler Lockett and Lockett wasn't playing super well either. I think that's what I want to watch for Tennessee just kind of going forward is just you might as well just give these young guys more run uh especially like chimeri dk who had a nice deep reception last week just kind of like see if that works uh that's kind of all you really have uh at this point just see if you can kind of develop one of these guys because nothing else is really working out for you i'm looking at the roster right now sebastian joseph dem a lot of teams need defensive tackle depth their defensive of tackles.

1:12:35I forgot they traded Brownlee, too, which was bizarre.

1:12:41Creary, I mean, I guess. Yeah. Indianapolis, we're going to talk about you a ton, obviously. The offense is awesome. There's not much to... I mean, I was watching them this past week, and there's so many things I think you could talk about in terms of you talked about, like, why they're putting up these historic numbers. But the thing that jumps out to me is just how unbelievably good they are at selling play action right now. Like when you watch the play action passing attack from the perspective of the defense, from the end zone view, I'm like, damn, I don't blame y 'all for getting cold because they sell it so well.

1:13:21Steichen sequences it so well. The way they use motion, it's the types of runs that they do. I mean, it's just really, really tricky. And then before you know it, Tyler Warren is behind you and it's a 29-yard completion. and he was wide open. It's just a nightmare. Yeah, or it's Alec Pierce or it's Michael Pittman. They just have so many ways to win. And it's just like, it's so well-structured and put together. I do want to mention a play that I posted after this past week. It ended up being, I think, a long play to Alec Pierce. They're in empty and the Chargers try to run a stunt and Jonathan Taylor is out in the slot and he just blows up the stunt by running into, I think it's Owe, and Owe takes out another defender.

1:14:07So just when you have your running back taking out stunts from empty, it's just like everything is working in that offense. Daniel Jones, again, first in pressure rate, or first in EPA per play when pressured, which is just the complete opposite of everything we know about Daniel Jones. He has not taken a sack on third down yet, which is absolutely insane. He has a 0 % sack rate on third down. They must have like the top, like it's gotta be top five in distance to go on third. They must almost never be in third and long. Yeah, it's wild. So just kind of, they're throwing everything we thought we knew about the players that they had, especially a quarterback out the window.

1:14:46And it's just, it's working really well. Daniels is taking a single sack on third down? What? It's so crazy because like, Daniel Jones always had arm talent. He always had athleticism, but he has zero pressure feel zero earlier negative i think zero might be even giving him a little bit more than than he deserved with the giants it's just a great case study for how like the infrastructure can make you a better quarterback because one it's probably because they're not in many third and longs i'm guessing it's like bottom near the bottom i know the niners and the rams are probably up there too um two um they have to probably run on third because they're probably in third short.

1:15:27And three, he knows his answers are there and they'll be open. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. He trusts the offense so much more than I've ever seen him trust. And as someone who covered the Giants when he was drafted and lives in the area, family full of Giants fans, watched a whole lot of Daniel Jones. This is just the quickest and the best processing that he's had. You can clearly see how well he trusts everything that's going on. The offense is a machine, man. It's a machine. um okay Packers Steelers great game or by me yeah Packers Steelers not serious Packers it's in Pittsburgh which matters um you're on the Green Bay side there's so many things we could talk about yeah this um I'll start with the Steelers offense against the Packers defense um because styles make fights and I actually think this matchup there's some benefits for Pittsburgh The Green Bay Packers defense, when they face quick game, which is the Steelers' offense, 25th in EPA per play, Dak Prescott, you remember the 40-point tie, completely took away the defanged pass rush, and to some degree, Michael Parsons, by just throwing the ball super quick.

1:16:40And he went 12-14 for 127 yards and two touchdowns. So I think the thing that the Steelers already do and do really well plays into mitigating the Packers' greatest strength, which is their pass rush. yeah and i so we'll we'll talk about the other side of the ball but this is where like i was focusing too it just can can the quick pressure disrupt what the steelers want to do and kind of turn aaron rogers into the the quarterback who is just kind of bailing out of pockets and having thrown the you know performative deep ball because nothing's there and i you know it's it's possible that they can so hey you know like last week against the bangles was weird because he still had like 63 % of his throws were under two and a half seconds, but only five and a half yards per attempt.

1:17:32So the Bengals were actually able to sit on the quick game a little bit, but it was when he was able to kind of get out of the pocket and run around, but there was just no pressure there. Like he's not going to be able to do that against Green Bay. There's no running around extending the play. Yeah. And, but over the previous two weeks, Rodgers had 9.7 yards per attempt on throws under two and a half seconds. And like 65 % of his drop backs were that quick. It was just slants and goes. So if Green Bay can mitigate that a little bit and get Parsons going there, I think that's going to be the key to how effective this is going to be.

1:18:13Some of it is Parsons having like a, you know, get off quicker than lightning. But the other thing I think Green Bay needs to do is challenge them at the line of scrimmage. So the Seahawks' worst game on offense was against the Seattle Seahawks defense, who are amazing. But looking back at that game, the Seahawks had a 30 % press rate, which is very high. Packers don't press. They've been playing – they're 27th in press rate, their DBs. So I would advocate in this one, you cannot give Rodgers those easy access throws underneath. it is similar to Dallas frankly in that when the way that offense looked with Dak Prescott where it's just like you gotta you gotta disrupt the timing give give Micah Parsons a chance in this one to affect the game because that ball I'm telling you is coming out boom in this one and as we've been talking about whether or not Green Bay can just get an extra like half a second not even a half a second is going to be key to whether or not they can disrupt this passing attack yeah that that's gonna be it and i think i kind of trust green bay probably maybe a little more than i should to to be able to do that uh but yeah that is definitely i think the the biggest key so far because on the other side of the ball like i kind of just trust the packers to be able to do what they want because everyone has been able to do that against the steelers so far this is just a defense that is static doesn't do a lot different and good offenses have been able to just kind of pick them apart yeah I think watching them against Flacco they're very predictable defense and play caller like Matt LaFleur is going to find answers I think for Jordan Love in the passing game I think they're going to struggle with all the motion play action pass Tucker Craft who's become really the focal point of this Packers offense is a difficult matchup for them because he's so complete right like he gets yards after the catch but he gets vertical and he actually blocks and And it's just that's a that's an issue for them.

1:20:12Green Bay, the offense. It's funny.

1:20:18They're top five in just let me actually I think they're like six in DVO. They're top five or seven in just about everything. Do you feel like something's missing? Like, could they be? I went on this little rant last week about how, like, I was so the Packers made me so angry because they should be better. than they are. Yes. Offensively, like when you watch them, there's a lot of injuries. And I think that factors into this on offense, not defense. What do you think is like the missing piece to make this like a truly, cause they're very good. This is not like no one's panicking about green Bay.

1:20:55They, they aren't like you, you say that, but it kind of feels like people are at least not treating this like a good offense, which like third in yards per drive, fourth in points per drive, third fewest turnovers per drive, which I think is something that people don't expect from Green Bay. Like we've seen a lot of very prominent people still believe that they are turning the ball over at a very high rate. A part of that is Jordan Love is second in DPA per drop back when not pressured. He's 30th when pressured. So there is a little bit of variance there and more so than we've seen, I think, from him in the past couple of years.

1:21:30I found a crazy stat about the pressure thing because that was the first thing that caught I was like, whoa, his numbers drop off big time when he's pressured this year. So this actually kind of blew my mind. NGS has a great stat. That's the percentage of downfield targets that are open, meaning three yards or more, so over 10 yards, right? Jordan Love, when he's pressured, is throwing to open receivers 1.9 % of the time, which is the worst of any quarterback in football. To put that in comparison, Jared Goff throws to open receivers just when he's pressured. 21 % of the time 1.9 % is unsustainable and that tells you it's not a Jordan Love thing right and whether or not it's the I think it's a mixture of things some of it is the Packers offense is pretty schemed up generally but I the absence of players Reed Watson who's coming back I think that's a big part of why those numbers have been falling off and I think we could see that improve as guys get healthier and as the offensive line has gotten healthier too.

1:22:35Yeah, I think that's going to be a pretty big part of it where you have Jaden Reed who could have been kind of just that underneath outlet guy. But also, we've talked about this before. Jaden Reed at one point was the most vertical slot receiver in the league. I think that's still an element that they haven't been able to completely replicate, even though Matthew Golden has been playing really well. Even Christian Watson, even if he's just kind of the sacrificial downfield guy, that still just kind of opens up more than they have. And they haven't really been able to do that in a way that opens up for other players.

1:23:08So even just once he gets back on the field. And again, we're talking about a top five offense here by efficiency that is going to get these players back. So I think it is something where we shouldn't worry too much, even though it's not quite as maybe dominant as we might have thought it could be. It's just not consistently putting up those yards. it kind of feels like it's in big chunks sometimes, which is it makes it feel worse than it is. Something I like about Kraft becoming the focal point too is that it becomes a little bit less chunk driven, a little bit less boom or bust with him, but in what he's become in this offense.

1:23:45But yeah, I think people forget that Christian Watson was a pretty good receiver. There's a reason why they gave him that contract. So I do think his downfield speed and separation, even if he's not even producing that much. Like you said, it creates some air for this defense, or offense, pardon me. So I'm optimistic. I'm a little nervous about taking Green Bay in this, though. I'm not going to lie. I am going to take Green Bay, but it's in Pittsburgh, and I really feel like if Green Bay's defense just comes out and plays the way they did against Dallas, Aaron Rodgers is going to carve them up.

1:24:21I'm telling you, they have to find a way to switch things up in the passing game, they cannot just give him those easy completions because he will take them all night long. Yeah, we're going to stick with taking the same games all the way because, yeah, I'm on Green Bay too. You're not taking the Commanders against the Chiefs now. Yeah, oh, man. All right, that's fine. I think it's been mostly favorites. All right, Commanders-Chiefs, Jane Daniels' status is up in the air. It's being reported that he is probably not going to play is the last I saw. But so that sucks. Yeah, it does a lot. It completely it does change this game quite a bit.

1:25:11Takes my interest down several notches to see Marcus Mario out there. Let's talk about the other side of the ball. I'm on Kansas City. That's the side that I'm focusing on. I'm so out on this commander's defense right now. And I just wrote, Rashid Rice put Mikey Sanders still in a blender. They got to move Sanders still back outside. I would do that. He has really struggled. Lattimore has been the focal point and obviously he's been awful. But Sanders still has not played well this year after a very promising rookie season. So I'm wondering if they got to consider, they got to do something with their personnel.

1:25:47I don't know if there's answers on the roster, but um you know it just looks old and slow and they've struggled in a number of ways i think if they come out and play as man coverage much man coverage as they've been the chiefs will just slice through it um but rice is the one i'm interested because he felt like even though he returned last week and he had touchdowns he still left it was just a taste of what he's capable of in this offense i think about like all the cover three that washington plays crossers I think he could go crazy in this game yeah and it's kind of what we talked about with Green Bay I think the difference with Rasheed Rice and what the next evolution of this offense is going to be which before he came back like talk about the Chiefs were already second in offensive DVOA right they were like the they were starting to become the Chiefs already before before this even happened.

1:26:43But now they have legitimate, just kind of deep threats where neither Marquise Brown or Taequann Thornton scare you individually. The fact that they're willing to go down the field does just kind of open up the middle of the field. And that's kind of what we saw from Travis Kelsey earlier. If you watch him and kind of look at some of the numbers, he's not really getting open more than he was last year. He just has like just a little more space and that's allowed him to be better just kind of catching the ball. And I think like that is what we see with Rice now too, where that short to intermediate area is so much more open now than it was last year.

1:27:25There's more space to work with. So when they need to go there, they can rely on that. And Patrick Mahomes is just going to be, take whatever the defense is giving you. And he's just going to do that in the most efficient way possible. And if those deep shots are there to a Taequann Thornton, he's willing to go that way now too. So I think this is just kind of becoming a fully functional offense in a way that we just haven't been able to see over the past like a year and a half. They even have been running the ball a little bit better. I'm always monitoring the Isaiah Pacheco under center. This last game, he was under center on half of his snaps, which was it's it keeps ticking up up up up a little bit and he was more effective running the ball from under center as he has been um yeah i when i think about like a defense that could truly i mean like a deep you know like at the seattles your tith houston's of the world i think right on kansas city i do not think of the washington commanders um just to address the offensive side of this because you know i mean if they if they don't win this game you start wondering about like this season and jane daniel's health and um they can be competent with mariota i think if they were playing a bad defense and that's the that's the flip side by the way we talked so much about the chief's offense the defense looked kind of disastrous early on and they've really turned things around particularly in the back end now i think some of that has been due to competition but a marcus mariola led commander's offense doesn't make me think can be tested yeah my thing that i had is i want to see if they're able to get the play action game going uh and i think just or at least just kind of some kind of misdirection that gets them a schematic advantage because i was planning for this whether it was mariotta or like a not 100 jaden daniels um they're just 24th in play action percentage but they're 11th in epa per drop back when they use it um they're ninth in dboa on first and second down so they kind of have been able to do some stuff on early downs.

1:29:27The Chiefs are last in EPA per drop back against play action. They're allowing over 15 yards per completion, but they've seen it at the third lowest rate because teams just haven't been in a position to be able to use it against them often. So I think if Washington can just kind of figure out some way to get some misdirection and get some of these guys open, whether it be returning Terry McLaurin and Debo Samuel, who should be playing in this game. Obviously, that's not as fun without Jaden Daniels, but it's just something where I think just schematically they need to do something to get themselves open, even if Daniels is playing.

1:30:03The play-action thing is really interesting to me because, yeah, the Chargers came out and lit them up with play-action. And then you're right, it hasn't really been a factor. But in the next few weeks after this game, they've got the Bills, and then they've got the Colts, who we talked about earlier as being like, this just play action monster right now. That's one where I'm really interested in saying if they've improved, because I think those two teams, the Bills don't use it a ton, but they should against this defense. And that's one where I'm like, okay, let me see if some of the concerns I had about the Chiefs defense from early in the year are like a little bit, if I should be letting them go.

1:30:46Well, I'm not going to find out this week, but I think I will in the next three weeks as they play those two teams. Sorry, Commanders fans. This sucks. Jane Daniels, I mean, it's just not fun without him. And the defense is already – what would you say before we wrap here? If, let's say, he was able to come back, what would you say in Commanders defense is the biggest thing that can be fixed, perhaps? Because they don't have trade ammunition. Right, because they've already used it on the ton of guys that they already – uh so i'm i want to see what they do because they're surprisingly second in pressure rate uh just with all the guys that they have but they just lost they lost armstrong so i i am curious to see how they are going to uh be able to to get the it's it's tough i don't know if there is a great fix for for the defense um it's just one of those things where you know schematically i think they they're doing all they can do like you're you're hiding like bobby wagner as well as you can too like he's a guy who i just kind of had this because they're 31st in dvoy against tight end so this might be a big kelsey game you're so good at getting bobby wagner he has a lot of tackles again which a lot of people just kind of point to as he's playing well but he's only he's really only running forward and that's what they it's that's what's happening it's kind of like a late stage Derek Jeter I have as like, he didn't have a lot of errors in his last few games because he didn't have the range to get to balls that could potentially cause errors.

1:32:18And I think like, that's kind of where we are with Bobby Wagner right now. So the middle, I think they're scheming that up well enough on the outside. It's like, Lattimore is just, it's just tough. I kind of bought into in the off season when I was putting together the Almanac chapter on Washington where Lattimore was just like, I, I did not feel a hundred percent last year after I came over from the trade. I feel much better now. And I, I kind of fell for that. And it has not been, been good this year. So he's. The rookie corner hasn't been that bad. Amos looking at some of the numbers now, like he has definitely flashed.

1:32:52He has been the best one so far by adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap and targets per coverage snap. They're not really testing him because they have other guys to throw at. The safeties were going to be a concern coming into the season. I don't think they've done much to really make you feel better about it. So I think this just kind of has to be a healthy offense that turns it around for Washington in order to make a run. I would seriously consider moving Saner still back outside because it did just seem like he was a lot better playing that position last year. It's weird because I just thought he was such a natural nickel coming into the league, but he has really struggled.

1:33:32That's been kind of surprising to me. And then, yeah, they got free. I think if there's young players, maybe they want to try a linebacker. Right now, it's just a pretty untenable situation. Sorry. It's a bummer. I know. If Daniels plays, I'm still going to take the Chiefs, but at least I think it could be competitive. I assume you're the same. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and I'm disappointed because I kind of wanted to talk myself into potentially something happening because I was high on Washington coming into the season, and for it to kind of have gone the way that it did is definitely disappointing.

1:34:07But yeah, Kansas City is definitely the pick here. All right, that's it for this week. A lot of agreement. Sorry for those who like us. I'm trying to look back. The one that I felt the itchiest about was probably the Niners-Texans because a big part of me wanted to pick Houston in that one because I just feel like the Texans' defense is so good and they keep them in things. But the Bears, I think, is another team where you could definitely pick them over the Ravens with all of the uncertainty. Maybe the Jets finally do it. I don't know. That would be the other one that comes to mind is like, you know, why not?

1:34:49rolled the dice. But yeah, and then I guess Broncos over Cowboys, I'm sure, going to be a popular pick as well. But dang, I got to check my Survivor League because I don't know if I have any good options left. Always a good option to have Dan Pizzuta on the show. Can you remind people where they can get your newsletter again? It is excellent. Yes. Snapsandstats.ghost.io You can also just find me on socials at Dan Pizzuta. All the links are going to be there. It's posted there. So it's, that's probably the easiest way to remember it. Also guys can check out this show, of course, on YouTube, if you're listening or in audio form, if you're watching on YouTube for it that way.

1:35:29Um, as I've mentioned, I am posting show content now on Instagram at Mina Kimes show, including Instagram exclusives, uh, namely my dog walk power walks. We're doing top fives while I walk Lenny at the end. That'll be Friday because I'm flying back on Thursday. So you're going to have to wait to see if i spoiler it's gonna change last the last week's top five is gonna change so go subscribe or follow mina kai'm show on instagram thank you as always to my friends at omaha productions who make this show kirsten sebecki owen sailor jack foster tucker tashin also want to thank alex hyacinth for helping us uh record in new york this week and guess what next week by the way ben solak returns from paternity leave so don't miss that later in the week.

1:36:19Alright, thanks guys.

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