Let James Cook? Previewing Every Week 9 Game

23:31Yeah. When we talk footwork things, there's usually one of two categories. It's like your feet are consistently bad. You, you know, put your foot in a spot where you're stepping on your throwing hallway and you're limiting your rotation. And then there's the second bucket, which is like, you're just not calm. So your feet just like do things. And that's Caleb's in the second bucket. Caleb is unnecessarily and oftentimes extremely frenetic. And it is not necessarily the result of pressure, though. the fact that his sack rate went from last year 10 % to this year 5 % indicates to me that some of it is pressure.

24:00Like he's very clearly got banged into his head. Stop taking sacks. Stop taking sacks. Don't take sacks. Don't take sacks. But some of it is also like he just gets excited. Like, you know, like he, you know, they, the glance around the DJ Moore against the Vikings and we too lives in my mind or it's like fourth down Moore's wide open. And Caleb from the jump just knows it's wide open. He's just so stoked that he throws it facing the line of scrimmage. Like, dude, just rhythm it, just rhythm it. There's a miss to a Lameda Zaccheaus on a little curl route again quick game against the commanders where you know Zaccheaus is going to sit down that route just as the zone defenders part if you hit him right between the numbers and he moves up field it's gonna be like a nice eight yard gain on first down and Caleb's just so excited to time it perfectly and to like hit it right as that that red red sea opens that he misses him and says brother you you you don't win games in one play you have to learn how to breathe now I think some of that is because of the expectations that he came into the league with and some of the difficulties in year one but a lot of stories written about him i also don't think ben johnson whom i love is the sort of guy who like decompresses and deescalates his players you know ben is an intense dude who will let you know when you messed up so i'm not sure what the solution is but i'm extremely confident that a lot of caleb's missed throws are throws that he is evidently physically capable of yeah and and so it becomes a matter of the rhythm of the game the calmness of the game the belief that you're not going to die if you make one mistake the belief that you're not going to score 10 points you make one great throw it's going to allow him to normalize and i think that we'll get there with him he just has to mature grow up and get get given that runway a

25:24Ben Solak:little bit it reminds me a little bit of a quarterback who we're going to talk about later can you guess which not jordan love okay the comp i made was josh allen okay i was gonna say he reminds me of kyler murray sometimes so i think right i think like there's the kyler and like trevor yeah there's the kyler trevor spectrum of like you are clearly talented but you are not consistent and then to me there's like the jordan love josh allen where it's like okay you once for this and then you learned how to smooth things out and it's okay where's where's caleb gonna land in that in that spectrum that's the big question for the next 16 games i don't know jordan it wasn't like sprays i mean like that first half of jordan starting i remember right i wrote for one day one half but i'm talking about like earl his first year in the nfl he wasn't it wasn't it wasn't sprays it was like bad decisions at times yeah but i remember it didn't feel the same first half of 23 he was like missing on glances and on these these short posts and everything with christian watson because like their landmarks were just bad like they just had like it was like the the communication the chemistry of it all i remember writing a piece where i was like packers fans like i promise like he can make this throw it's just that he his receivers don't agree yet and that's the sort of thing that happens slowly and then all at once right right light bulb just comes on one week yeah i just never felt like accuracy was the thing with him um okay uh i'm gonna take the bears i think the bears win this game i think the fact that the bangles have to play defense in this game makes it very hard for them to win it uh which will be the case for every sunday from now for the rest of time but there's some shootout worlds where this gets really stupid really 52 and a half total on this one gotta get a pass rush going um okay colt steelers big game you're in the colt side of it i'm on the stealer side of it I'll go first.

27:10Ben Solak:I just wrote, can you shorten the game? Just keep the Colts offense off the field. Grind them to dust when they're on defense. Paper cut, paper cut, run the football. Be your annoying self. So, funny thing about the Steelers offense, I feel like this has gotten, Because we talk a lot about the quick passes and how they're, obviously, that's what Rodgers prefers to do at this point in his career. And they started to play action off of it. And he had some success with that, right, against Green Bay as well. They've become a really good running team. And I feel like this isn't talked about that much.

27:51Ben Solak:But their fifth in rushing success rate right now, they've really figured out something. I talked about the jumbo personnel groupings. I think the offensive line is blocking better. They've gotten skill players who are blocking better. and then Gainwell and Warren are both really efficient. In fact, I would argue against Green Bay, they probably should have read it more than they did as the game went on. Rodgers was never going to let that be a running game, not a shot. Brother was going to can every call at the line. So the Colts defense is basically average in everything, right? Yeah, it was so annoying looking.

28:23I'm trying to find something. No, there's no obvious. 19th, 14th, 17th.

28:26Ben Solak:Yeah. One thing that they are, their 26th and success rate against short passes, So that's to go back to the paper cut thing. They're also one thing that they're 31st in DVOA versus tight ends. So Pat Fryerbuth, just kidding. He doesn't exist in Aaron Rodgers' eyes. Darnell Washington, you're getting those targets. But no, I'm just joking. Or Kevin Carter-Hayward. We got four of them. No, but I just think, like, I absolutely think Pittsburgh can move the ball on them on offense. I think that they match up reasonably well with them. Luan Rumo is going to throw all of his weird stuff at Rodgers.

29:03Ben Solak:I think for Aaron, it's just a matter of not panicking when there's an unblock, or probably not unblock, but when they send pressure. But for the most part, I do think they can run the ball on them. I think the short passing will work, and I think they can play action them. And that's my key, because I don't want to talk about the other side of the ball if I'm a Steelers fan. Yeah, the good on the other side. We talk about the Colts being average and everything. The one thing that I always look for with a Louie and remote defense is opposing quarterback time to throw. Because when he was at his peak with the Bengals, the thing that he was doing so well is he was forcing Lamar and Josh Allen, Rogers with the Packers, Mahomes.

29:43He was forcing these guys to hold into the ball longer than typical. That's the product of all those coverage rotations, all that zone coverage is we're going to make you think for a little bit. So right now, quarterbacks facing the Colts, fifth highest time to throw 2.9 seconds, right? And this is like some of it is because the pass rush was not great at first to start the season. They're second in pressure right now when teams only bring four right now. They never blitz. And so they don't get the additional ones. But they are good at like pushing the pocket, collapsing space. They did lose both Samson Ebbicom and Taequann Lewis, though, last week.

30:12So we have to see health wise how deep that pass rush becomes. So you can get Rodgers to hold on to the football in absolutely hilarious fashion. The Steelers are four and three. The four fastest time to throw games are the games they won. the three slowest time to throw games of the games they lost some of that is chicken and egg right you're losing you have to hold them all longer but in general rogers went holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds this year he's 28th out of 33 quarterbacks in success rate 29th in explosive pass rate right uh third worst in terms of getting throws more than 10 yards down down the field so if you can make him hold the football i know there have been moments the big roman wilson throw against the green bay pastors like there was the the awesome touchdown a couple weeks ago i think it was against the uh was the Vikings I can't recall but he was moving to his right through back across to his left the Vikings yeah there have been moments of there he is prime Rodgers look at him sign forth but in general snap to snap yeah if you can get up to hold another football you can be advantageous so to me this is a game to get extremely funky in the in the defensive front and in the defensive backfield especially if you're thin on pass rushers be willing to take some risks and force Rodgers to pat that thing you're gonna suffer for run defense but yeah they got to you know carry the ball 12 13 times down the field on you your offense is going to be scored in four plays right so if sometimes you get one or two stops you can space

31:24Ben Solak:this thing out should we even talk about the other side of the ball i mean the colts offense is a machine and the steelers defense i'm trying i'm trying to come now you got me all sensitive about the smoking the hydrogen bomb smoking baby so i gotta think of something else me to discover this meme is just dialed in on it i mean i need a new meme for like uh when's two you know uh something there's a great imbalance defense right now is the cheeto in the door lock it's just like man there is no resistance and you you go and you look at underlying numbers they're gonna play a bunch of single high they're gonna play man and cover three like okay the colts are a little bit more hot and cold against those numbers and against zone but in the sense of like against only be the best offense ever and against man occasionally they have an incompletion like that's really what you're getting there in terms of the noise they have an incompletion yeah i mean Because when you throw the ball to Alec Pierce 45 yards down the field against all-man coverage, sometimes you don't connect.

32:17Yeah, they have too many weapons.

32:18Ben Solak:Can I interest you in a Kyle Duggar? Because the Steelers traded for Duggar, one of two Patriots-related trades. It was like a sixth or a seventh something. So for people who haven't been paying attention, let me catch you up to date. Kyle Duggar at one point looked like one of the most exciting, young, versatile safeties in the NFL. He was like a unit. He used it a bunch of different ways. And then he slowly fell out of favor in New England. And this predates Mike Vrabel. This goes back to last season as well, to the point where he's been a rumored trade candidate for them for some time now. So here he is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

32:58Ben Solak:The Steelers have a lot of problems on defense. You know, Deshaun Elliott got hurt in the last game. That was pretty bad. But I wonder, I haven't thought this through exactly how they might utilize him, Ben. I wonder, though, if they almost want to use him as a de facto linebacker, because that's been such a weakness for them. So, so bad the Steelers linebackers have been. The most difficult part of watching Steelers defensive film is figuring out who messed up. Because so many instances, and there's also the defensive line with some of the run defense stuff. There are just multiple guys who are guessing, making up plays, wrong, miscommunicating, and it's been rough.

33:37The Deshaun Elliott injury, he's on IR now, is a massive one as well. Because Elliott has been like the eraser for all of this nonsense between the tackles and run defense. Elliott is very physical. It's been like, you know, at least solving some problems. I don't know if it'll be Duggar right away. They obviously have Jabril Peppers as well. And other Patriots cast off who can go play in the box for them. But we're starting to really lose for team speed. They were putting Jabril Peppers and this version of Kyle Duggar on the field. And we were already in a really bad spot for team speed when we had Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slade playing corner for us.

34:06uh the Steelers linebackers and and and then safety's sons Deshaun Elliott against the sort of eye candy that the Colts are doing right now on offense is is like it's bad it's it's like I won't want to watch it it'll make me so upset that this is NFL football levels of bad there's there's worlds where this gets like like if you think the last couple weeks have been embarrassing for Tomlin and Terrell Austin in the Steelers defense there's worlds where this gets like dire

34:31Ben Solak:but there's also a world in which the Steelers offense actually keeps him on the field I have the field i truly believe that to go back to my original point like just shorten the game hopefully you can get a turnover some weird shit happens on the other side of the ball but i don't think like this is not a terrifying adult like there are certain defenses that i look at them i'm like serious offense can't like seattle right houston that's not the case here they can move the ball on them i'm still taking the colts because the other side the imbalance is so great but i don't think it's impossible that aaron rogers and the steelers running cat I can make this somewhat close.

35:05I strongly agree. Remember, still no Traverius Ward and then Jalen Jones practiced last week but did not go and sounds like currently we'll practice again this week and we'll see. So the Colts, okay, cool, coverage rotations, they can hold the ball. They do not have a guy who can line up opposite DK Metcalf, push him and then run next to him for two and a half seconds. They don't have even that dude, let alone if they want to shade a safety there. And so, like, there's a space where, you know, a lot of third and fives learn in sixes, but the Steelers are like 10 for 14 on third down because you just do not have coverage bodies receiver that the Steelers have so yes I'm also Colts but yeah they're much like I'm sure the line is like massive uh it's in Steeler Pittsburgh right yep Colts by five three and a half three and a half okay this is respectful yeah this is a classic books love Mike Tomlin spot so they want you to take the Colts oh that line seems a little bit short because it's Tomlin on a small underdog Tomlin at home the problem is like that that was also last week Tomlin was a small underdog at home against the Packers and they didn't cover in that one.

36:05I think that people don't realize this Tomlin defense is not bouncing back. I think this defense is what it is.

36:10Ben Solak:Can I say something that might be perceived as disrespectful? Heck yeah. Okay, so you know Tomlin's got all the wins of the last, well, obviously career, but just thinking about the post-Ben Roethlisberger era, how long has Chris Boswell been a Pittsburgh Steeler? Hold on, I'll pull this up. I was thinking about this watching him. This is a great take. Okay, 2015.

36:38Ben Solak:Has anyone considered that Chris Boswell might be the reason why they win all these damn games? I'm watching him in the game, the night game. I got Packers. And I'm thinking, I never expect this dude to miss. It's like watching Kevin Grant take a mid-range. He could be anywhere on the field. It's funny because I know Brandon Aubrey is obviously the bomber, and we've had a few of those. But Chris Boswell, to me, is the most automatic thing in sports right now, in the NFL. It's a Cam Hayward and a Chris Boswell stat. Hayward's been there for 15 years. Boswell's been there for his 11th year now. That's who the real magic is.

37:18Mike Tomlin is a Chris Boswell merchant.

37:21Ben Solak:I'm just saying, some nerd, go do the war for Chris Boswell and subtract it from the record and see what it looks like. All I know is like I grew up in Pennsylvania, tons of Steelers fans. My pops is a Steelers fan. My sister is a Steelers fan. Anytime they're, you know, in the group chats complaining about the Steelers, like, well, legitimately, they're like, well, at least like we can trust Chris Boswell. Like, remember when they beat the Falcons week one last year, 18-15, six Boswell field goals? They were like, yeah, this is our whole offense. This is the plan. It's just run it through the rest.

37:46Ben Solak:Well, for a second, I guess the Packers, you were like, damn, they are going to win with field goals, aren't they? And then the Packers were like, oh, right, we're good. Right, seven is more than three. We forget we're good. Seven is more than three. Let's do this. Yeah. Niners, Giants is just me. For this, I wrote San Francisco, run the ball. So the Giants are the worst run defense in football, DVOA. They have allowed 26 runs, exceeding over 10 rush yards over expected, which is the most of any team. So the Niners running the ball, they have not won the ball well for much of the year. But with Kittle back, they ran the ball really well.

38:21Ben Solak:last time we saw them um or probably uh in the it was against atlanta right in the night game yeah yeah yeah it was atlanta and then the texans okay oh yes then the texans right in that game right so um they they do a lot of different things now in the run game they really mixed it up week to week i was looking at the giants ftn fantasy does like run concepts and i was looking at their run concepts to see like what the night the giants have been worse against uh and i was like oh gap runs because the niners have been running more gaps and stuff 6.8 yards per carry that's bad and then i was like let me just switch the toggle to outside zone 6.9 yards per carry i was like okay it doesn't really matter just run the ball like they're just i this giants run defense it's interesting how bad it is by the way because it feels like it shouldn't be as bad as it's been and it's been absolutely awful yeah i mean like i think that pound for pound brian burns and abdul carter are impressive run defenders for their size in the grand scheme of nfl edge rushers and how well they defend the run you're probably still given something because you are so undersized right then your interior penetration guys like you know okay you're rakeem nunez rochez your darius alexander these are guys who they're not really going to get tackles behind the line of scrimmage because they're just going and creating chaos and then lawrence dexter once is very clearly still recovering from his late season injury last year like he just is not the same juice that we're used to him seeing and so you're not as punchy and run defense is usually where second level is really rough right uh uh Darius Moussa opposite Bobby O 'Karrike their linebacker has been a big problem for them the the Giants are like it's so sad that Scadaboo is hurt because the Giants have it's so fun to watch with starting with Scadaboo and I really think that the lack of Scadaboo like Tyrone Truce is a good player but the lack of yards after contact is gonna accumulate but the giants need to be like you know blitzed get man coverage pressure they need to get like some weird outside of structure opportunity to be anything in the passing game right now and you just know roberts hall is going to sit back there with seven in coverage they're going to give up some throws in the middle of the field like theo johnson is going to get them a couple of times but in general the giants need to be an underneath passing team against zone coverage and the 49ers just hit very well they're very physical darts not going to kill you on those zone plays like with quick decisions and explosive throws down the field so this is a good matchup for the niners even without fred the other Patriots player who was traded was Keon White again another one where like if you go back a couple years people would be shocked but he had also fallen out of favor in New England does this do anything for you for the pass rush in your mind like does this enough or do you think that they'll need to acquire pieces because you alluded to the Texans game that's the least amount of pressure CJ Stroud has faced all season we'll talk about him in a second but turns out he's still a good quarterback when he's not being pressured and boy they could not get any pressure in that game yeah dead last and team pressure right before they made the key on white trade this is a this is a great example of like how most mid-season trade deadline acquisitions go where it's like i simultaneously believe this was a good move for the 49ers that they should have made and i also don't think it will materially change the destiny of the team this season i know they got a highly disruptive player with inside out potential which is exactly what Robert Sala loves, like undersized penetration defensive tackle with multiple years left on a rookie deal for a sixth for maybe seventh swap.

41:35That is good business. Is Keon White capable of playing the caliber of football that will save the 49ers defense without Nick Bosa, without Fred Warner? No, like, you know, it's going to give them a couple more third down stops and that might accumulate into one win instead of one loss that changes their playoff seating, so on and so forth. But 49ers defense is still largely what we expect it to be.

41:55Ben Solak:I'm going to take the 49ers. yeah i think and like it's been huge for favorites last couple weeks in the nfl and right now you and i are mostly taking all favorites like i want to take an underdog giants team at home that has been lucky but i really think the scataboo absence is a very big deal so i lean 49ers uh i'm trying to decide if we're gonna take any underdogs i have a couple coming oh i see one oh my god they're underdog do you know who i'm shocked to see an underdog is can you guess uh the bills no that's broncos broncos i would not have thought that that line opened texans underdog and has flipped in the two days it's been open all right uh before we get to that game let's do one more that's this is yours panthers packers we alluded to the packers earlier what's your key in this game uh you gotta you gotta run the football and shorten this game because if the packers are always going to insist on not figuring out that they're good until halfway through the third quarter then let's get as quickly to halfway through third quarter as possible let's make this game fast um panthers man really really tough injury run out uh so far on offense and like as a guy who's been a bryce young disbeliever and like whatever you still have to acknowledge uh left tackle or excuse me right tackle taylor moten goes down with a knee uh halfway through the the previous game against the bills announced out right away not expected to go brady christensen uh achilles i think it was he got carted off center cade mays leaves with an ankle that the line at the end of the bills game was center right guard right tackle we're all new players they've had six different starting offensive line combinations in eight games they're probably going to have seven this upcoming week depending on who comes back uh and who doesn't that's on top of derrick brown got hurt in that game trevin wall also starting linebacker plays 100 of the snaps he got hurt in that game pat jones been on ir like this team is big big big big banged up there's one thing that works for them well there's two jc horn is one the other thing as rico dowdle yeah getting on center and just driving the football downhill right packers defense right now fourth and success rate against dropbacks but 23rd and success rate against the design run right if they are giving up like a high downside conversion rate it's very similar to how the team was last year some of that is by design yeah exactly it's very similar to how this team was last year they need like takeaways or they need those third or medium stops to get off the field so if you're carolina i mean you are trying to and never ever see a third down longer than five yards and that way you can keep this clock running you can be physical with this defensive front which is then a defensive tackle and you're going to try to stay out of those key third and longs for the Packers.

44:20If you do that, this thing stays one score and then you just wait for the Packers to be idiots, which right now is like 6-5 and pick them, that the Packers have bad late-game execution. That Cardinals game that they very well could have lost, the Browns game they actually lost. If you take the Packers to a close fourth quarter right now, Matt LaFleur will turtle on you sometimes. Jordan Love will make that key mistake, that sack interception sometimes. You've got to get him there.

44:42Ben Solak:Great game for Matt LaFleur to dial up the aggression earlier. This Panthers run defense is improved. I still think that this Packers rushing attack has a lot of flaws. In the passing game, they should be able to hunt. There's so many matchups. I mean, the Panthers cannot defend tight ends. There's no reason why Tucker Craft shouldn't get a zillion targets early in this one. Also, he's on my fantasy team and is single-handedly carrying me to victory. He's literally holding my team up by the grace of God. While you were victory lapping, Tucker Craft giving you the win. I was losing to a Tucker Craft in a different league.

45:18I was just spitting mad at my CEO. I was so pissed.

45:21Ben Solak:My big, beautiful boy. Packers. Packers. Packers. Yep. 100 % Packers. All right. Let's talk Broncos, Texas after because that one, I actually was like, let me have this conversation first before I make a pick. Save money on your next oil change with O 'Reilly Auto Parts. Get a$15 O 'Reilly gift card after rebate when you buy five quarts of Mobile One full synthetic motor oil for just$35.95. Stop by your local O 'Reilly Auto Parts. I like things my way, my coffee, my schedule, and my treatment. So I talked to my doctor about self-injecting with the Vivgard Hytrulo Pre-Filled Syringe, which contains F-Gartigamide Alpha and Hyaluronidase QVFC.

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46:48Ben Solak:Wayfair, every style, every home. All right, we're back. Broncos, Texans. Texans are favored. This is in Houston. So, you know, and it's under three. So you are on the Broncos in this one. I'm on the Texans. This is a pretty obvious one. Is there any way you can buy time for ZJ Stroud to attack the corners? Because the corners can be had now. Pass your chance on play. Sorry, I didn't mean to sound that bad. Obviously, I feel sad. I wish he was playing. He's a great player. But there are, like, ostensibly, if you eliminate the line of scrimmage as a factor, The Texans should be able to attack Denver through the air in this.

47:34Ben Solak:You saw last week when, you know, CJ Stroud actually had time. Oh, wow. It turns out he's an accurate quarterback who can throw downfield. Killed them with those in-breakers all day long, right, San Francisco. And without Sertan, you're looking at, I think Riley Moss is a lot better than as advertised because he has to play opposite Sertan. but um jatane goes out of the game and they the cowboys really go after uh drain abrams drain get out of mizzou um really liked from the texans offense last week seeing that they're finally letting the youth movement take over with higgins and noel oh wow no and and they they like they it was like higgins on the slants and noel on like a crosser post which was also how they were out on Iowa State.

48:26So I don't get to figure this out either, right? They would use Higgins in the underneath seven. They would use him to hold down the field. And it was very obvious the whole time.

48:32Ben Solak:Of course, the rub here is what I said at the very beginning, which is how do you buy time for CJ Stroud? I think Vance Joseph probably doesn't blitz him that much. You're probably leaning on your four-man rush. He'll throw in some... Vance has been very unpredictable with his blitz patterns this year. And I think to great effect, obviously. So I do think he'll throw in some pressures. He'll play a lot of games and things like that, but it'll be simulated pressures. but for the most part I think this is a game where he could probably dial down the blitz a little bit especially with Outsertan back there so I think for Nick Haley and and the Texans it's just like you gotta find a way I don't know I don't have I'm I don't have an answer for you the Broncos defense is top five against all the things you do to like buy time play action roll outs quick game I just kept looking up stuff being like there's got to be something they're not top five against sadly there's not the old-fashioned way is running the football but if you do that in houston i mean like right notice i didn't even mention that yeah um if you were vance would you want and like you don't know if nico collins is going to play x the concussions that conflates everything but would you want to dial down the man coverage or would you look at a team that yes higgins and no played well but it's playing at wide receiver xavier hudgson and jared wayne and two rookies and higgins and no and say to yourself you know what we still think we play man coverage on these guys would you ratchet would you try to go more zone because see i'll give you some some background cj stroud has over his career has been more dangerous against zone because what you brought up the in breakers in the processing this year e-paper drop back man zone roughly equal success rate roughly equal explosive pass rate 8.7 against man 16.4 against zone right and the texans need explosives to score non-negotiable because the offensive line issues they can't run the football like they have to score in chunks and so zone is the only way they get explosives on you also last year has her tan missed week seven with a concussion this was i was i was so pleased when i found this he was we sent with a concussion here's the broncos man coverage rates last season week one 40 then 46 45 45 43 47 19 percent yeah the week and and they played the saints that week which is a team that kind of forced you to play zone anyway but the subsequent weeks are 24 and 17 as her tan worked back in the lineup so to me i i'm inclined to go more zone coverage especially if nico collins can play and rush four i just worry that strout's gonna like alex singleton right now and dre greenlaw and coverage for the middle of the field and zone like that that is scary to me yeah although alex singleton played out of his mind this week i i had to highlight him i thought because i was like listen i usually i'm so hard on him and sternad usually i'm like they're the weakness but i thought they were both excellent in this last game so shout out against the dallas cowboys uh yeah i played more zone um they played a lot of zone against Philadelphia this year.

51:11Ben Solak:It's like, so, you know, there's also some willingness to change up his tendencies. This is just all about pressure for him and like finding ways to befuddle the Texans offensive line, which shouldn't be hard. They're going to win. They're going to win quickly. I, even with the Sertan injury, I still think they have the advantage on that side. I think that you, you end up being like, you know, the Texans played more jumbo last week than they'd ever played in like their entire franchise history. 33%, right? Ton of six offensive linemen. I think that, right, you'd be a 78 man protect team and okay if you do that and they're in rush four drop seven then now yeah you have like three guys in route distribution against seven dudes in coverage that is scary but again over the middle of the field if i can get nico against those backers i know talon fong has been great but like fong is a risk taker who is not as sound in coverage as he could be i still feel like maybe i can go ahead and get some explosives the other thing is like the the one thing that has been good about the texans passing game over the course of this year is when it throws behind the line of scrimmage, i.e.

52:08throws to Woody Marks, right? You have to be willing to get a lot of run after the catch. And if the Broncos are giving you man blitz, one of the things that kills them, you talk about like, you know, big staple and Barkley touchdown to the side and whatever, is getting the back of the backfield fast and attacking that matchup. So to me, it's Woody and Nico if he goes. And it depends on what you give me as a defensive coordinator. But I'm going to be keeping six and seven in a lot because you have to have additional bodies, even if they're only rushing four, because you can't trust your tackles.

52:32Ben Solak:Denver still, if not dead last, bottom three and DVO versus passes to running backs continues to be an issue for them. Okay, is there thoughts on the other side of the ball? Do you have thoughts about the Broncos offense? My key for the Broncos was find the Sertan solution, right? I was talking about do we blitz or do we not blitz? Do we drop guys in zone, so on and so forth. On the other side of the ball, my big note is that this season, Knicks has been remarkably better against man coverage than he's been against zone coverage. 51 % success rate versus 41%. 41 % first down and touchdown rate, down to 26%, an enormous drop-off.

53:08Texans are obviously an extremely zone-heavy team. They're going to play a ton of quarters, so it ends up like, man, Kamari Lasseter, Derek Stingley Jr., but again, we have eyes on the quarterback. So all the rollout, sprint-out stuff, not going to be as successful. The bone-nick scramble stuff, all the throws behind the line of scrimmage. I mean, the Texans are such a fast team, and they're so good at tackling. Have to, have to, have to, on Broncos' offensive side of the ball, run the football. This, J.K. Dobbins has been tremendous, I think, this season. It looks like he's back to form. This offensive line has dealt with more injury than in the past seasons, but still a lot of movement in the running game, not just that Dallas game, but in games previously.

53:40And the Texans, who are a quality run defense, and they have good talent, they don't pitch you any change-ups. They're going to put four down on the front. They're going to play one gap. And so this is your crunch and your wham. This is your pin pole. There's some of those power concepts that we know Sean Payton likes to get to. To me, I like the Broncos to win this game over Houston because of the ability to pressure Stroud, and then because of the ability to control this game at the pace of J.K. Dobbins. To me, it's like a 20 carry, 100 yard touchdown day for Dobbins.

54:07Ben Solak:Bronco's run game is really fun to watch. I know like the story of last week was Bo Nix because, you know, he's been like OK in spurts. He had a good fourth quarter, but that was like his first like, oh, wow, they've taken out they take out the governor. He's like throwing downfield. This offense looks the best it's looked all season. And certainly true. But I also just like went back and watched all of the runs. and there was a lot of explosive runs against Dallas. And it's Dallas. I get it. But it's so well-designed. It's so creative. They do so many different things. And all the skill players block their butts off.

54:41No, block them off. Pat Bryant, maybe? Marvin Mims? Pat Bryant?

54:44Ben Solak:On the big crack toss run, you've got Bryant pinning, Mims blocking, and then all the offensive linemen are moving. Every single explosive run, it feels like Pat Bryant isn't on, I've noticed. But all of the Sutton's blocking, they're really good. I mean, it's a really good run game. And it's kind of like what we had hoped for this offense, right? Last year, the feeling was like, well, they have this unbelievable offensive line. Why can't they run the football better? And, you know, right now they're a top five, seven rushing attack in football. So that gives them a foundation, especially against a defense like Texans, to your point.

55:19Because the thing is, they have to call it, right? They did this against the Jets. It was driving me nuts. Where every single run was packed with a bubble over here, back with a smokescreen, a little side thing going on. And like, you have good wide receivers who block well in structure, get them involved. But then also like, okay, it feels like, right, that's good for Bo. Like we solve, you know, we get answers and whatever. But your receivers aren't that, you don't have Debo Samuel out there. It's like Troy Franklin. It's not really that worth it. Call a run, right? Get under center, call a run.

55:44There's no can, there's no package. We are going. And that's when this offensive line can really tee off. And this offensive line is the strongest group of that offense. You have to maximize them.

55:53Ben Solak:Also, the Texans have always struggled. and some of this is structural versus quarterback runs. So I would make Bo Nix running a big part of my game plan as well. I'm on Denver in this one. I just can't get over the line of scrimmage. I can't do it. I can't do it for this Texans offense against this pass rush. Sharp Money has really liked the Texans all year. And that's why he got this move early in the week. I absolutely think it's a Broncos spot. The Texans have had three good offensive games and they have all been against bottom 10 pressure rate teams in football. Broncos are stone cold first in pressure.

56:22No matter how you manipulate the numbers, blitz, four man rush, what down they are always first in every single filter it's gonna be a long day for cj

56:29Ben Solak:oh yeah all right moving on uh i give myself vikings lions the jj mccarthy return game so that's what i'll focus on here um it's pretty simple with jj can they speed him up because the thing i i went back to think we talked about him a little bit yesterday at nfl live and watch some of his reps against Atlanta, which was the gate right his last game where he really struggled. And he just and I don't mean that. Sorry, when I say speed him up, I'm talking about Detroit. I'm talking about Minnesota speeding him up because it just felt like he did not have a good grasp of NFL timing. And some of that was his own time to throw.

57:12Ben Solak:Some of that was pass rushers and his athleticism versus them. And a lot of it was NFL windows. He was just waiting too long and the windows were closing too fast for him. He's got to play faster. Some challenges here. Vikings offensive line has been really bad. And this is an offensive line injury situation to monitor with Derrissan O 'Neal. The Detroit pass rush has been very good. They also got back Olin McNeil, who I think is going to have success in this one barreling up the middle, which is going to cause problems for J.J. McCarthy. And Minnesota can't really run the ball. So what we had thought would be like this unbelievably quarterback-friendly situation to walk into, aside from the receivers, has not been exactly that.

57:59Ben Solak:But O 'Connell, it's a tough challenge, but he and McCarthy have to find a way for him to play faster and take fewer sacks. And unfortunately, this is a tough start for him against this defense. This is just a nightmare return game. It's the Lions at home. Lee McNeil is back. Hey, Hutchinson is playing great. Al-Qaim Muhammad is playing great. Both Kirby and Brian Branch are returning. If there was a assistant coach of the year award, Kelvin Shepard would be at the top of it. We love him. Kelvin, I was told I talk about him too much on the podcast. So I've been trying to dive. Okay, I will. No, no, you can talk about him.

58:34Ben Solak:I've been here for eight weeks. Nobody's told me. Jack. Kelvin Shepard, all right, walks around the most jacked-ex linebacker for 10 years ago. When he talks, all he talks about is like the most like, Like, oh, knucklehead, coach, speak, physicality, whatever. Then he walks out there with Spag stuff. I firmly believe he's the next team Spagnuolo. That's a crazy thing to say. That's like absurd. He needs like 30 years in the league to be that. But in terms of how well they get to their calls at certain moments, when they're getting their timely double teams, how they get into their rotations, the game plan against Lamar, dude.

59:03We haven't seen a young coach walk out with a good Lamar game plan since Flores, man. I was so fired up watching that Lions game. I think that he's going to have Jage's head spinning. again on the road in detroit forfield is a loud loud place if you think they don't want to ruin jj mccarthy right he's a michigan guy right now he's in minnesota like that's gonna be an important game for that field yeah this is this is a terrible spot to return to especially if there's no derisaw then the other side of the ball like lions are second in run rate vikings run defense absolutely terrible like the jared goff has played four games against brian flores with the vikings all of them he has scored at least 30 they've scored at least 30 points as an offense it's because they control the game on the ground like this is why and the vikings right

59:41Ben Solak:It says deletion. Yeah. Yeah. The Vikings run defense has been really bad. So I think, yeah, you're falling behind. Suddenly you're in obvious passing situations. The Lions defense to me, like I had them as the sixth best defense in the NFL and my top 10 defenses pod. And I got some pushback. And then week one, I felt really dumb. And now I'm feeling great because I've really like they have lived up to. And that's even with some injuries, right, on the back end. I think they've been so impressive. Yeah, I don't love this matchup at all for JJ. I'm taking Detroit, I think, pretty comfortably in this one.

1:00:21Yeah.

1:00:21Ben Solak:I see we are, too. Same thing. It's his first game back with Jordan Addison. Excite. Maybe that's better? Maybe activate him on some quick game stuff. I don't know. I mean, to play the Lions, you got to attack the backers in coverage, which is what Kansas City did. But I just don't think this offense is like in this quarterback capable of that. Maybe got to be able to hold the ball for at least three seconds to get that done. And every time that happens with this offensive line, disaster. Jags Raiders, speaking of disasters.

1:00:55Ben Solak:I focus on the Raiders side of it. Brock Bowers, can you make this offense mildly competent is what I wrote down. Remember week one against the Patriots? I was like, oh, I see how this will work. Like we do two cool 12 personnel stuff and we get tight ends matched up in man coverage. And like this is nifty. And then just they immediately lost it. Yeah, I mean, look, the Raiders offensive line is a disaster. The quarterback has been putting the ball in harm's way. They cannot run the ball the way one would expect. But I do think that actually having Bowers back will help a lot. I think, you know, I made a lot of mistakes estimating or thinking that this Raiders offense would be fun and interesting.

1:01:36Ben Solak:And obviously, Geno Smith has been absolutely disappointing. But I think then maybe my biggest mistake was underestimating how dependent on Bowers it was. You know what I mean? Like, because we looked at this group and we were like, fucky, who needs receivers? You can run multiple tight ends. It's like, OK, well, what happens if you take out that tight end? Right. It's really bad. So and that matters in this game. The Jags are allowing are 26 yards per attempt versus tight ends, 24th in DVOA. It is potentially a mismatch for them. I would just love to see the passing attack show some life. And I feel like Bauer's returning could against this defense at least make it a little bit more palatable.

1:02:18Ben Solak:I mean, do you have any Raiders thoughts generally? Because we haven't really talked since week one. Yeah, no, there's too many injuries in this game, right? Brock is still technically questionable. We don't know if he's coming back. The hope was week nine by Jacoby Myers. Max Crosby is potentially not in this game. Other side of the ball or other side of the sideline, I should say. Jaguars potentially know Devin Lloyd was playing so well. Brian Thomas Jr. So it's very tough to figure out what like matchup wise we're looking for here. The quick throw stuff drives me insane for the Raiders. because if you're last in the league in all this because you're playing the same coverage as you were playing 10 years ago, offense has figured that out.

1:02:53And they figured it out when you had talent. Right now you have Wayan Adams at linebacker. You are deficient in talent. And I know that Pete feels like he's protecting his young corners, but like if the juice is not worth the squeeze, Liam Cohen's gonna have a field day with this defense if you don't come out with anything new post-buy, right? Now it is at home for the Raiders. They are getting Bowers back. I think they're a lot better running the football than they were. Chip has kind of figured out what he can and can't get away with with this offensive line. So I think this is an appropriately close line.

1:03:19It is three and a half. I do think we saw the absolute stone cold worst of the Raiders, and they will be better in the back half of the season. But I'm very scared of what Cohen might be capable of achieving, especially if, as reported, they just go full sell Travis Hunter on offense now.

1:03:33Ben Solak:I mean, on one hand, on paper, yes, right? Travis Hunter, screens. Lawrence has been good at a quick game. And on the other hand, I have no faith in any sort of offensive consistency from Jacksonville. I know like we can say Liam Cohen knows how to attack them and they have these players and they should be. But like then they've been so unbelievably inconsistent in terms of their execution that it's hard for me to even look at this kind of mismatch and say no brainer or easy. Yeah. Even if I'm you know what I mean? Like they're they're real. And I really wish this is going to sound so nerdy. I really, really wish Brenton Strange was back.

1:04:14Ben Solak:He's not back yet because I have to say, this offense hasn't looked the same without him. That's not nerd at all. It's a Brock and Brenton Strange game, man. This is a tight ends matchup. Availability. I firmly agree with you. I think the two biggest issues for their consistency has been procedural issues, right? They cannot get lined up on time and then drops. And my hope is that, you know, okay, brother Brian Thomas Jr. plays or doesn't play in this game. I think if, I think like, Like, you remember when we talked about Travis in the draft process and we were like, how does this small man catch everything near him, including when he is being like demolished by 200 pound safeties?

1:04:50I think you have to repurpose if you're going full Hunter on offense, which I think you should. Actually, I would go full him on defense, but whatever. You got to pick a side. That ship is sealed. Yeah. You repurpose some of the middle of the field routes and some of the, you know, the quick step between the linebackers to Hunter. And you say that you are a reliable ball catcher, even though you are 185 pounds, you're like Gumby, right? You're like a rubber band. Contact bounces off of you. And you replace Brian Thomas Jr. in the role in which he was successful last season, which was, hey, you see the goalpost there?

1:05:1765 yards down the field, run at it. Run at it as fast as you can. And to me, that's going to be very salutary so long as over the bye week, they knocked out some of the procedural problems. It is Jacksonville. So in terms of teams who deserve our faith, they are 32nd out of 32. But the solutions to me seem clear.

1:05:34Ben Solak:I'm taking the Jags just because the Raiders have been so bad. But I don't... I'm not going to rule out Bauer's return being impactful and also just general consistent. The Jacksonville offense punching themselves in their initials. I'm taking the Raiders here so that way I take at least a couple of underdogs in this pod. They're not all favorites. I do think, again, we've seen the absolute floor for the Raiders this season. It can't get much worse than it's been. is it completely gene over or do you think there's a small part of you that thinks he could be better it's it's funny because like i as i just wrote drake may as mvp i'm being accused by every commander's fan under the sun that i never update my priors as a big gino guy like i think it's gene over like he's pretty clearly physically chalked right like just the ball does not come off his hand with the same degree of velocity movement skills were already going a little bit and they fall in again like i just uh sometimes guys really physically bounce back but it's a rare thing to and I'm not buying it.

1:06:32It just seems like he's reached out of his physical rope.

1:06:35Ben Solak:Yeah, he's just going to have... I think with him, it's going to be a matter of is he more realistic about what his arm is capable of down the stretch? Yeah, it's not how he's coded. Yeah, right. The Sam Gino thing, by the way, because you and I were both very like, what are they doing? This is a clear quarterback downgrade. That was one by week three. I was like, okay. No, yeah, yeah. I'm taking the I know. There are some times where there's some times where it's like, oh, opponents, defenses, schemes, systems. This was one where immediately I was like, okay, nope, they knew something. I keep hearing from fans who were like, take the L.

1:07:05Ben Solak:And I'm like, brother, I took the L back in mid-September. What are you talking about? The L was taken. If I'm not taking an L, I will let you know. I'll let you know very loudly in a large column or in a podcast. Trust me, this one, Sam is killing it, man. He looks awesome. The team that I referred, they made the right decision. The quarterback is killing. I'm distepstated. Cheers to you. Okay. We will get to the Seahawks, of course, at the final game. or the sunday night game actually not i keep thinking they're monday night football they're sunday night which is really fun uh rams or saints rams is you yeah my key for this game is wish luck which mostly i just wanted to make the rhyme because it's funny to me uh i don't understand the timing of this quarterback change in the slightest you had the you're the bucks at home which the bucks are far from like the easiest defense but they're still a passable defense and you start rattler to hook him after what was like not a great but also not egregiously bad first half to then start shuck on the road against the rams there's like okay like maybe the stadium is not like the most hostile environment rams are off a buy the rams defense is first an epa per drive allowed second in points per drive second epa per play eighth in success rate right now they've played the cooper rush ravens and they play the texans like they're probably not as good as those numbers imply but dude like this is a good pass rush and a complex defense that changes pictures on you how is this the first shuck start i do not understand you're gonna do it with no eric mccoy with no kendra miller who've been two important players to this offense by the time this pod comes out you might be down for a lot of it or she's like who do we think's more like i think she he's more likely to go i do too and i that's the one i would be calling about but if you got the message from ownership that was like you have to start the rookie and then you just three days later trade one of the two receivers to me like it's it's very funny it's very inept i'm sorry for saints fans but to me that that's very that's very entertaining so like in terms of actual functional keys you want to make this very grindy right the brand staley defense does not give up explosive plays the rams have to get explosive plays in their offense they're really bad in short yardage they're not good uh in the red zone right dead last and red zone score percentage 76 the rams are we've seen them like against the 49ers for example they had the first and three fumble right in the red zone they had the fourth and one stop like they're going to get points and yards on you but you can get this team to execute poorly if they're playing all three downs and all four downs that's how staley is built so long extended drives slow scoring protector quarterback that's got to be the approach i just hate the way the states have gone about this quarterback change nakua who can nakua back interesting to see if they still do any of the 13 personnel stuff with you kind of get the sense that sean was like like he had like a folder exactly like in the cabinet that was like if nakua ever gets hurt and he opened it and there's like i forgot about brandon staley you know he's gonna unload the clip just oh yeah a little revenge game here um as far as the quarterback switch goes look i'm not gonna begrudge a bad team from just like throwing stuff at the wall let's we spent a second round draft pick on this guy let's see what he's capable of um in a kind of show featuring any guests tyler shock by the way i think i only put that on youtube delightful delightful man i i am a shuck boy that's what i called myself is that is that i'm trying to make it a thing uh there's so many things you can do with shuck but it like you said i don't i do not love the the placement of it for last boy is one of the funniest things i've ever heard you have to spell it with boi shuck boy um yeah it's a tough spot for him.

1:10:40Ben Solak:This is a trade showcase of the whole Saints. They're like, you like what you see? You like Alante Taylor? You like Raheem Sheehy? You know, we got Damari kind of just doing a 40-year-old Damario Davis? That'd be an interesting one. But anyways, obviously I'm taking the Rams here. The Rams, by the way, sorry not to keep going back to the trade deadline. Corner is probably most likely for this team. Unfortunately, there aren't that many. The thing the Rams have going for them and i was they made the mccreary trade right so they did get they added a body at corner from the titans oh my god i completely forgot they traded for mccreary you're right when you were like corner i was like yes his name is roger he just kept it moving i was like no no roger yeah williams played really well before the bye but i still wish they had more youth on the or better players yeah mccreary is weird because like he's been mostly slot for the titans last couple of years and they have quentin lake there who has been delightful in the nickel for the Rams.

1:11:35But McCurry was at the outside at first in his career. No matter if he put him slot or outside, he's going to have issues with his length. He's got like 29-inch arms. So I wouldn't be surprised if they legit give him a shot outside at first over a manual Forbes. I think that's going to be the plan.

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1:14:06The re-re-re-re-re-re-re-rematch.

1:14:09Ben Solak:They always play. Last four regular season games, Bills have beaten the Chiefs. Last three postseason games, Chiefs have beaten the Bills. So this is in Buffalo. Chiefs are still favored by two. The Bills are coming off of a beatdown. but I think the vibes are still very dubious around the defense. I'm on the bill side of this. I will go first. I wrote, my focus is on the offense where I think they can, they have some advantages because I do worry about their defense against this offense. Maybe that's your side. So we'll get to that. I wrote, make the linebackers go backwards. That's in my mind, how you beat this chief's defense.

1:14:56Ben Solak:they are terrible against play action, but they're constantly facing offenses that aren't play actioning them. Right. Very small sample. So it goes back to like week one when Justin Herbert shredded them. Something the Bills are capable of. Rushing wise, this is an interesting split I found. The Chiefs defense is allowing the lowest yards per carry on runs outside the tackles in the NFL. but in between numbers drop off precipitously. They're 25th yards per carry, 25th in first down rate. That is something that Buffalo is extremely good at. Yeah. Just this, there's, this doesn't, there's no reason for this to be explosive or there to be an onus on it, to be terribly explosive in my mind.

1:15:44Ben Solak:I think that they can grind them down and I think they can play action off of it. And I think those linebackers can be had. Yeah. the two best run defending players on the Kansas City Chiefs are both corners they are Trent McDuffie and Jalen Watson that is so bad and like I know people will say Nick Bolton and like Leo Chanel as well I thought like Bolton is good he shoots gaps everything that he's not a good tackler okay he's not big enough to be the sort of tackle you need him to be a linebacker he doesn't have stopping power the the Chiefs defense to be getting away with what they're getting away with in the front seven to me is like astonishing to this point and you're absolutely right with the sample thing where uh they're worse in terms of yards per attempt against under center play action epaper drop by success rate explosive pass they're worse by a mile 48 explosive pass rate but the sample is extremely small because after the chargers they just haven't faced an offense willing to get under center and play action now the bills i swear to god dude if you walk out and act as if you're in a job rate another god dang joe burrow 2021 lsu five in the concept spread nonsense i'm gonna blow my lid the falcons game what are we doing get under center jay in terms of the core of the running game the bills five offensive line and then james cook they could be the colts dude they really in terms of the talent that they have okay they are they could be so good but they constantly run away from it they have to be amongst the best in the nfl so i gave the chiefs numbers on runs between the tackles i thought you you talked about how it outside the tackles.

1:17:10Ben Solak:The cornerbacks are helpful. So they're like bottom, they're 25th in most metrics on runs between the tackles. What do you think, off the top of your head, I'm going to pull it up right now, Buffalo is, if you had to guess, runs between the tackles. Like, yeah. Like legitimately, I'm going to guess like 30th. No, no, no, no, no. In like their metrics. Oh, their offense. Yes, sorry, the offense. Like, we're not talking about that side of the ball. How good do you think Buffalo is running between the tackles? I like I'm trying to figure out like okay do the toss plays count when they kind of back up or whatever but like easily top five first in yards per carry first in rushing success right like I'm pulling up all the numbers right now it's unbelievable it's so obvious that they should be able to grind Kansas City down between the tackles I cannot I cannot like be more like I cannot be too you know embellishing here too too too far with my skis James Cook is like to me 92 % Jameer Gibbs when you watch them play.

1:18:10Like, it's just the quality of individual that they are. And they just don't feature him. Why not throw to him? Why not throw to him? Because they got to get Ray Davis and Ty Johnson involved. You know, you got to get your third down backs on the field. All right.

1:18:21Ben Solak:So that's my Bill's point is you have matchup advantages against this defense. Lean into them. Run between the tackles. Play action off of it. Don't have to get cute in this. I really think that they can move the ball in Kansas City. Yeah, I strongly agree. Right? My chief's key, like talking to the defense side of the ball, is you have to elicit Josh Allen mistakes because you are dead in the water if this becomes a shredder game, right? Where it's just run, run, play action, run, run, play action. Like you, Allen this year is scrambling more than he did last year, 9.9 % relative to 7.6. Sack rate is doubled, 6 % to 2.6%.

1:18:55Intercept the bull rate, 1.7 % over 1%. They're just that last year, the Bills were like a really finely tuned, well-oiled machine. And this year, there's just a little bit more cracks in the armor everywhere in terms of how Allen is behaving, some of the decisions he's making, which wide receivers get targets where. It just is not as smooth of an operation as it was. And so this is a game where you've got to catch your picks. You've got to get the guy down when you get your pressures. They have to become sacks. You need drive-ending plays here. You can't wait for the Marcus Mariota mistakes that you've been eating off of here in defense.

1:19:27The Bills should be able to just first, second down, only third and shorts, inch their way to scoring drives. So when Allen makes his mistakes, your big coverage rotations, you send your weak blitzes, all the stuff you do in the playoffs, you got to be able to actually haul those passes in and cash in on those. This game is very much going to come down to a couple of defensive plays made by one team and a couple of failed defensive plays by the other team. Didn't get the sack, didn't get the pick, so on and so forth.

1:19:51Ben Solak:So I want to pick Buffalo because I do, like, I really, I look at this, that matchup that we've been discussing and I feel good. The problem is, I do not think this Bill's daily defense can stop this iteration of the Chiefs offense. I just, I don't see how it happens. It is the Bill's defense. When you look at the metrics, they are fourth in e-paper drop back. They're eighth in success rate against the pass. And you look at those numbers and you watch the film and you're like, no, absolutely not. They are in rents because there are players who are so gettable in coverage that the smart teams are able to go after right.

1:20:28Charles Bernard right now is, is bottom three among all linebackers in terms of coverage snaps, right? When you get players working into the second level of the field and you get yak opportunities, it's Taylor rap and Cole Bishop chasing them down. It's just not a fast enough safety to do it. Raps out. Yeah. Yeah. They just don't have good tackling there. Now Maxwell Harrison came back. Yes. And played 21 snaps against the Panthers. My thing for the bills and my key for the bills defensively in this game, or I should say, you know, when the chiefs hold the ball, you got to try to play some man coverage.

1:20:55You can not, you're not going to have a pass rush. You can't play zone. You have no Ed Oliver. You cannot play zone and rush with four and drop seven. You heard Troy Aikman with the commanders where every single time Mahomes had a nice catch, he was like, well, if you're going to play zone and rush four against Patrick, he's going to kill you. Like he was going to shut up.

1:21:10Ben Solak:Especially with Rice back, by the way. Like while I was watching the Chiefs offense and with Rice back, that was my number one takeaway. We talked about NFL Live because of the Sertan injury. And I was like, this sucks. Because I really believe with Rice back in the lineup, you have to be able to play man against this, this offense and the Broncos with certain, I thought could do it. Can the bills? I don't know about that chief. No, I mean, the bills are going to get walked down the field. Now it becomes a matter of what you do in the red zone, right? I found this looking at cold stuff. The Colts right now are the best offense in history in terms of getting into the red zone.

1:21:44They get into the red zone on 50 % of their drives, which is the stupidest thing I've ever said in my life. That it's historic. It's the best number ever. Second best number in history is a 2025 Kansas City Chiefs. The only team better than them is the current Colts in terms of getting to the red zone. Now, the Chiefs are fifth in the league in touchdown percentage in the red zone. You go and you watch that film, whirly gig, liberal nonsense. It's still from Jerry Rice. Jerry Rice called RPO's liberal nonsense. Just completely insane. Andy Reid, like...

1:22:11Ben Solak:No, he called it conservative trickery, I thought. Conservative trickery, not liberal nonsense. I went the wrong direction with it. That's a terrible look for me. But all foolishness... RPO, sorry. Wait, let me make sure I have that right. It's all foolishness. Yeah. They cannot run the ball between the tackles. It's all the passing stuff. Yeah, conservative trickery. That's what it was. What happened to lining up and letting the best man win? RPOs are conservative trickery. Jerry Rice. You know my story about him? I had him on like a Super Bowl row once week, and I had that tweet up. And I pulled it up, and he went, nope.

1:22:40Nope.

1:22:41Ben Solak:Not talking about it. No, no, no. It gets worse. So then I'm like, wait, what? I thought he would talk about it. I was like, well, I wanted to have a football conversation. and then later I checked my phone and he wasn't looking at the tweet for some reason under the tweet was a picture of him doing that chicken commercial and that's what he saw so he thought I was gonna ask him about the fried chicken bucket hat come on sorry Jerry if you're listening we would like to talk to you on our POs being conservative anyway the point here being the Chiefs are going to do cheese in the red zone to put the ball in you have to be really disciplined you have to make your tackles right for the Bills it's going to be red zone uh opportunities on defense for the Chiefs.

1:23:19It's going to be interception, fumble, and sack opportunities on defense. Who makes their plays is what this comes down to.

1:23:23Ben Solak:Are you going to take the Bills? I'm taking the Chiefs. I can't do it. I wanted to take the Bills so bad, but every time I look at this Chiefs offense against this Bills defense, I just can't get there. I'm going to take the Bills because the Bills running game is elite and the Chiefs running defense is bad, and that should allow you to control game script in a way that the Chiefs can't because the Chiefs can't get out of center and run the football. If I am wrong because the Bills elect to be like 65 % pass, I'm going to go to Rochester for the baseball bat, dude. It's such a frustrating offense.

1:23:51Ben Solak:Okay. We're split. That's good. Seahawks, Commanders, Sunday Night Football. You have a Seahawks. I'll do the Commanders side. Commanders coming off of a loss. There we go. Commanders defense is, well, it's not great. So I'm going to focus on the other side of the ball. I wrote, Commanders, can Jane Daniels buy time to punish the Seahawks downfield. So the Seahawks defense is basically good at everything, right? They're amazing against the run. They get so much pressure. They're so fantastic against quick passes. They're good against deep passes. They're good against everything. They've improved a lot against play action, et cetera.

1:24:28Ben Solak:One area, though, where they have struggled, and admittedly it's not the largest sample size, but it's been 50 steps, when quarterbacks can buy time, so four more seconds, extended dropbacks, they're dead last in EPA per play. The 31st in success rate, They're allowing the most they've allowed the most completions in the NFL and the most touchdowns.

1:24:52Ben Solak:So Daniels. And I think some of that has to do with, by the way, the injuries that they've had in the secondary and the secondary is getting healthier. So that's a little bit moot. I'm not going to lie. But it was like a huge issue against Tampa, for example, when half the secondary was out. Daniels this year has been better outside of the pocket than inside of it. He's 7th in QBR outside versus 27th inside. And he's still been good under pressure. I think he has to be magical in this game. And he's got to make like crazy magician-y plays outside of the pocket for them to have success. Yeah, and it's got to be with his arm too.

1:25:26Seahawks against quarterback run. They're giving up 5.2 yards per carry, which is above average. But success rate, their third best. And against scramble specifically, their second best. So a lot of that scrambling stuff is just third and long stuff where they're happy to give you four or five yards in structure, get you to fourth and four, and then you're going to punt it away. Daniels right now, by the way, scrambling 14 % of his dropbacks, fourth highest in a season in NFL history. It's behind two Vic seasons and an adjusted field season, right? Like they are, they're not running as many screens, not running as much play action.

1:25:51They're trying to be more of a dropback team. And the response from Daniels has just been to get us out of the pocket. Some of that is pass protection. Certainly a lot of that is the wide receiver injuries. But this offense is losing a little bit of its identity and doesn't know what to lean on. A huge, huge, huge part of this game. One of the reasons why I love this spot for the Seahawks is because the commanders are a hurry up, no huddle team. right? 61, excuse me, 65 % of their snaps are hurry up, no huddle. You watch the commanders, they'll put out a couple of funky personnel groupings in front of you, wait until they get, you know, the Cardinals, they got the Cardinals with three defensive tackles on the field, and then just hurry up, hurry up, hurry up, we're not going to let you sub.

1:26:24The Seahawks, which some of this has been the defensive back injuries, the Seahawks since week three have been 92 % nickel. Next closest team is 78%. What Mike McDonald has done in terms of getting a defense where I can put 11 guys on the field and stop anything is one of one in football there is no defense that is even analogous like not even Baltimore there's not one that is close and so you want to be a hurry up team brother I'm going to put the same 11 on the field I'm still going to be able to take away everything you do that's a huge commander's offensive advantage they have against every other team they're not going to have against Seattle

1:26:55Ben Solak:and now imagine that Julian Love and Devin Witherspoon are back which is I'm so interested to see what like amin war are they gonna want to do sub packages now because they have their guys back this is not the week for maybe you wait one week i don't know no i think you play witherspoon outside and i think he likes amin warry as like the like kyle hamilton like slot yeah uh defensive line yeah and then if you get to a third of long and they're not in hurry up you take drake off the field you can play a more among where a dime linebacker and you can get tarik back on the field like there's they can do some cool stuff dude uh we don't i mean the other side of the ball is just like yeah i commander's worst i'm not allowed to use that one analogy anymore okay listeners youtube listeners who leave such delightful and only pleasant comments uh wait please i i you guys gave me a bunch of great analogies for san francisco 49ers defense without fred warner please give me a new analogy for uh hydrogen bomb coughing baby like just a dominant like Like, I don't know, Lenny versus a thinly tied box of treats would be one.

1:28:03Ben Solak:That's a terrible one. But I just need like an analogy for like a dominance. That's what I've been missing. All right. It's going to be really sad to watch the Seahawks end Bobby Wagner's career on Sunday night, dude. But it's going to happen. He's done. That one play with Rasheed Rice this last week, the crosser. Yeah. Where they got him on Wagner. it was i i i literally turned away from my computer the best thing was is is teams have been doing that to wagner for weeks and the quarterback just hasn't targeted it and then the chief just went and dialed it exactly for that it's like yep 54 is a mark that's just the nature of 2025 right now he is uh saner is still man it's so bad i have no idea what the solution is in the secondary for them because like i was like okay they moved him outside but yeah Ibn Aghani like their safeties are also really rough because they've had injuries there and it's like it's hard to pick too much on the corners I don't know Jotty Newton played well my guy uh okay we're both on Seattle yeah Cardinals Cowboys so this is one I actually think very close game very hard to pick yeah which the Cowboys are favored by two and a half but it's in Arizona so uh you can go for oh you just went on Commanders I'll go first So Dallas, I'm going to talk about the Dallas defense in this one.

1:29:29Pretty simple.

1:29:32Ben Solak:Can you pressure Kyler Murray? And I bring this up for a couple reasons. One, the Dallas pass rush isn't actually that bad. It's actually like the least bad thing about their very bad defense, to be honest. Just like they're actually getting some pressure. And then the other reason I bring that up is Kyler Murray has just been atrocious under pressure this season. He has a QBR of 11. Why is that? Well, I'd be happy to tell you. When he is under pressure, he is when he's when Kyler Murray is under pressure. He is 32nd in sack rate. He is 32nd in interception rate, meaning the most. and he is 33rd in drop rate, which is not a Kyler Murray stat.

1:30:17Ben Solak:It's a receiver stat. Basically, when he is under pressure, the entire offense falls apart. Bad things happen that compound each other. Some of them Kyler's fault, some of them not his fault. So for Dallas, it really comes down to can your pass rush get something going against this team? Yeah, my key for this game is can you run yourself away from the Cowboys pass rush, right? Like it's just like, all right, on first intent and on second intent for the Cardinals. Since Trey Benson and James Conner have gone down, the Cardinals are 28th as a team, or excuse me, 31st as a team in terms of success rate running the football, right?

1:30:53Another key injury that underappreciated was that of Tip Ryman, the second year tight end out of Illinois, who was, you know, they were a baseball personnel team. He was playing 50, 60 % of the snaps and was a key blocker for them because Trey McBride, who is passable and effortful as a blocker, is just not going to be like a scale tipper in the way that Ryman was. this like you lost clayton adams he went to dallas clayton adams revenge game and the dallas running game has been one of the coolest designed things yeah it's been so fun to watch the cardinals have had an exact equal but opposite fall off in their running game this used to be like under center 13 personnel pin pole like the way they got corners in the fit was second to none and now like it's just been toothless unimaginative the interior office line's giving them problems you had the bye week you're not getting trey benson back he's not back till next week but you have you've got something here in bam night you've had some time to calibrate to the injuries and now you got a dallas run defense that if you can't run on this group you can't run and and even in the worlds in which like okay how good is kyler murray he's a second contract he's a boss whatever whatever a good offense with kyler murray was always going to be a good running offense you have to be right because you have to be able to maximize the value of his legs and they don't really do it in the gun but still like they do with the boot action stuff it if the cardinals can't run here it's chalked it's over it's finished and so you you have to be able to commit to new ideas in the running game find a way to be able to move it not just in the red zone they've been good they're still running the football but between the 20s if it's not against this defense it's against no one

1:32:17Ben Solak:uh i think that the cowboys offense should be able to move the ball on dallas or arizona pardon me on the other side of the ball i haven't talked about the cardinals defense really at all this year um there's a reason for that there's not much to talk about like they've been sort of below average they haven't taken the leap that i think we kind of hoped they would after the last couple of years. And it's funny, Ben, because the players that they've added have all been pretty good, right? Like the young players, Sweat's been fine. But then there's been regression amongst, I think, other players on the roster.

1:32:51And so it's kind of netting out to just the 20th best defense in football right now. I appreciate what they are trying in terms of the odd front structure and they steal some college ideas and the three safety stuff. It's just there's a reason why no one does this in the NFL because it's really hard to be this way. the Cardinals are just so predictable in terms of uh you know like I talked about I talked about that uh uh no excuse me there's commanders against the 49ers but they get into those base fronts right it was and you can keep that on the field by going hurry up no huddle you can keep them in that set you know base defense at three four spacing uh they play more quarters than anybody else on late downs in all of football they like you know their coverage rotations and stuff like it looks cool on the chalkboard but you know you're getting off cover from the corners and the outside so if you can if you have a guy you like on a speed out or a guy like on a deep comeback you have it you know um they might be getting Garrett Williams back which was a big deal this defense was at his best when he was in the nickel BJ Ojolari also somehow is practicing which like he's like nine months off of an ACL or excuse me off of an Achilles and so I don't know if he's going to be available or not for this game Walter Nolan has been practicing so they might be getting bodies that will make the defense seem a little bit different but to me they feel like a very predictable defense which again Clayton Adams like coming back he knows a lot about how to go against this group.

1:34:02I just, I, they have good players, but they're toothless schematically, even though they're like doing football nerdy stuff. It's just not the sort of thing that's tenable at the NFL level.

1:34:10Ben Solak:It's also Dallas's offense in Dallas where they're remarkably better. It's hard for me not to think that there's going to be a bounce back game for that unit after going on the, you know, the road against Denver last week. So I'm taking Dallas in this. And I realized that means I've gone mostly favorites outside of Denver, but i'm sorry they're favors for a reason yeah what do you got i'm inclined to take dallas i think that last week against the broncos it was like oh you know the cowboys aren't that good now this this this cowboys offense will be able to shred 29 of 32 defenses in football it's just they ran into one of the three i will say that like dude the cardinals have lost five in a row and and obviously they had a quarterback you know murray was unavailable those two weeks a little back back against the wall i want to be like it's i'll put it this way it's either a very impassioned performance, win on the road against Dallas going into the upcoming Seattle game.

1:35:01Let's rally together as brothers. Or it's, okay, when's the Jonathan Gannon moment going to come for ownership here? Because you lost six in a row in your season's chalk. I lean Cowboys, but Cardinals win would not surprise me.

1:35:12Ben Solak:I'd really like to see Arizona figure something out in the run game against this unit, to your point. If you can't do it against this group, you're really losing faith in that. All right, that's it. yeah we did every game Ben where can folks check out your work ESPN.com Ben Zolak we got trade deadline primers coming up we got the column coming out every single Tuesday we got bets for this upcoming week coming out on Thursday we're back at it baby we're working it's great alright Ben we'll be back on sooner rather than later we'll be back on Tuesday to recap the aforementioned Cowboys game you can check out the show on Instagram at MinaKaimShow we launched an Instagram where I'm doing weekly power rankings that are exclusive to, they're just top fives.

1:35:58Ben Solak:There's going to be a shakeup in the top five this week. Last week's top five was Kansas city, Indianapolis, Detroit, Seattle, and the Rams. Can you guess which team might crack the top five that you don't have to guess who's leaving the top five jets? Probably right. A lot of momentum coming off the wind. There it is. Yeah. How'd you know? How'd you know? if you want to know who made the top five you gotta go follow Instagram, Mina Kimes Show thank you as always to my friends at Omaha Productions who make this show Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster Tucker Tashton you can also listen to my television podcast, Viewer Discretion with David Dennis Jr.

1:36:39Ben Solak:where we have been talking about Love is Blind, open to new suggestions by the way for our next TV show so hop in the comments and let us know and also hop in the comments and give me an analogy please, please, I'm desperate

1:37:04Ben Solak:Turn it up. Storm has zero sugar and 200 milligrams of caffeine. So you can turn that workout up a notch. Good energy in, good energy out. Energy for life.