In short
Previewing NFL Week One matchups, with an in-depth focus on the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl rematch and keys for several other games (49ers-Rams, Bucs-Bengals, Saints-Lions, Jets-Titans, Ravens-Colts, Falcons-Steelers, Bears-Panthers).
Guests
Dominique Foxer (co-host/analyst on the Dominique Foxer Show). Lenny (Dominique’s co-host on “The Munich Im Show” / “Lenny Only NFL Podcast”); the transcript also references ESPN promotion and other hosts, but only Dominique is clearly a guest.
Key claims (notable examples)
- Patriots-Seahawks: Seattle is “heavily undermanned” in the secondary (injuries to safeties/corner depth), so the key is whether New England can protect Drake Maye long enough to exploit matchups; Patriots must adjust protections after the Super Bowl “same protection” failure.
- Seahawks offense: New England’s corners/edges matter because Seattle uses cross-field play-action; Seattle needs big plays for Sam Darnold.
- 49ers-Rams: Rams’ tackles are a target; 49ers must stop the run on early downs to avoid third-down problems.
- Bucs-Bengals: Tampa should run more and use short throws/screens; Bengals’ weak short-play defense and run defense are emphasized.
- Saints-Lions: Watch Tyler Shuck vs Detroit blitz pressure; Lions’ pass rush questions are framed as a “heat check.”
- Ravens-Colts: Focus on Daniel Jones under pressure and whether he can move; Ravens’ revamped front is highlighted.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOWeek One Matchup Preview
0:00 to 0:25
Hosts preview the key matchups for Week One of the NFL.
“ESPN's going to Super Bowl 61 and so can you.”
Week One Matchup Preview
0:46 to 2:10
Hosts preview the key matchups for Week One of the NFL.
“Dominique will be joining me every other week, but every other week I will be over at Dominique's show.”
Patriots vs. Seahawks Analysis
2:10 to 3:55
In-depth analysis of the Patriots offense against the Seahawks defense.
“Some of them, we will both present keys, the bigger games.”
Coaching Strategies and Adjustments
3:55 to 5:48
Discussion on coaching strategies and necessary adjustments for the Patriots.
“And they were just going to some of the other like football people we have at our company, they were just going nuts.”
Seahawks Offense Outlook
5:48 to 7:40
Exploration of the Seahawks offense and how it can exploit the Patriots defense.
“They would put Nikki and Wari on the field and play their big nickel or their dime, and they could defend the run at a reasonable rate.”
Importance of Edge Play
7:40 to 9:10
Discussion on the significance of edge play in the upcoming game.
“And that's like the end game adjustments to me have become so, so important in the modern NFL.”
Targeting Weaknesses in Defense
9:10 to 12:00
Hosts discuss how the Seahawks can target weaknesses in the Patriots' defense.
“Like you want to check, check them on everything that you can in the first few plays.”
Quarterback Play and Big Plays
12:00 to 14:00
Analysis of quarterback performance and the need for big plays in the game.
“They blitzed Sam Darnold a ton the last time.”
Analyzing Sam Darnold's Performance
14:00 to 16:40
Discussion on Sam Darnold's potential and the Seahawks' challenges.
“they don't take shots or double move on third and manageable.”
Niners vs Rams: Key Matchups
16:40 to 20:28
Insights into the Niners and Rams matchups focusing on offensive and defensive strategies.
“So it's hard to like gauge it off what they did last year.”
Show all 34 chapters
Examining the Niners' Offensive Inefficiencies
20:28 to 26:11
Exploration of Niners offensive tactics and weaknesses against the Rams defense.
“I'm interested in seeing if he mixes it up at all for them in terms of their pressures.”
Bucks vs Bengals: Offensive Strategies
26:11 to 28:00
Analysis of the Bucks' offensive approach against the Bengals' defense.
“Are you not factoring the travel situation in at all?”
Analyzing Tampa's Offense vs Cincinnati Defense
28:00 to 28:34
Discussion on Tampa's offensive strategy against Cincinnati's defense.
“So Tampa last year, I think a lot of the struggles of the offense were running the football.”
Examining Defensive Matchups
28:34 to 29:41
Insights on the matchup between Tampa's defensive line and Cincinnati's offensive line.
“Those guys need to step up and play well.”
Bengals Offensive Strategies
29:41 to 30:51
Discussion on how Cincinnati's offense may adapt against Tampa's defense.
“Speaking of the young guys, including that Reuben Bain is a part of that really dominant front.”
Game Predictions: Bengals vs. Bucs
30:51 to 31:50
Predictions and analysis of the upcoming game between Bengals and Bucs.
“I'd be concerned about breaking that out of week one, but I get your point because I know maybe he should get rid of the ball quickly, but he doesn't always.”
Tyler Shuck's Performance Under Pressure
31:50 to 33:04
Analysis of Tyler Shuck's performance against the Blitz and its implications.
“I wrote for my key, Tyler Shuck versus the Blitz.”
Expectations for Lions and Saints
33:04 to 34:20
Discussion on the performance expectations for the Lions and Saints this season.
“the Lions are different than those of the Saints.”
Coaching Dynamics in Key Matchups
34:20 to 37:07
Exploration of the impact of coaching changes on various teams this season.
“But even that said, they're not going to be one of the best pass rushers you face.”
Analyzing Jets vs. Titans
37:07 to 38:41
Evaluation of the Jets vs. Titans game and the implications of coaching.
“In part because the, yeah, the Titans preseason was pretty alarming.”
Ravens vs. Colts: A Key Matchup
38:41 to 41:47
Discussion on the factors influencing the Ravens and Colts matchup.
“So this is the, I really want to get eyes on this one because I think it's really interesting for a litany of reasons.”
Falcons vs. Steelers Preview
41:47 to 44:40
Preview of the game between Falcons and Steelers and key elements to watch.
“your point is really important too when we talk about his athleticism because it's not like Daniel Jones' design runs.”
Bears vs. Panthers Analysis
44:40 to 48:51
Discussing the matchup between the Bears and Panthers, highlighting key players and potential offensive strategies.
“The Panthers are just one of those defenses where they have such glaring strengths and such obvious weaknesses.”
Bears vs. Panthers Analysis
48:57 to 50:01
Discussing the matchup between the Bears and Panthers, highlighting key players and potential offensive strategies.
“The one that makes buying so incredibly easy?”
Browns vs. Jaguars Preview
50:40 to 56:00
Previewing the game between the Browns and Jaguars, focusing on turnovers and defensive matchups.
“I mean, the Browns, they're still good up front despite losing Myles Garrett.”
Previewing Key Matchups: Bills vs. Texans
56:00 to 1:05:27
Analyzing the upcoming game between the Bills and Texans, with a focus on defensive strategies and key player performances.
“If you don't have someone out there to threaten them, that might turn into a big play.”
Analyzing Commanders vs. Eagles
1:06:36 to 1:10:02
Discussing the matchup between the Commanders and Eagles, focusing on coaching strategies and offensive line challenges.
“I wrote Battle of the Young Coaches, Sean Mannion versus Durante Jones.”
Eagles vs. Chargers Matchup Analysis
1:10:02 to 1:12:05
Discussion on the matchups and performance expectations for the Eagles and Chargers.
“I can't really imagine a way that they're going to be able to, like Jayden Daniels.”
Impact of Tyler Smith's Injury on Cowboys
1:12:06 to 1:14:25
Analysis of how Tyler Smith's injury affects the Cowboys' offensive strategy and their matchup against the Giants.
“I think if, if Nolan takes the leap, I think that they could be decent.”
Giants' Challenges Against the Cowboys
1:14:26 to 1:18:21
Exploring the Giants' ability to stop the run and tackle Dak Prescott effectively.
“One was Wig-18 where he didn't play that much.”
Broncos vs. Chiefs Preview
1:18:22 to 1:21:40
Preview of the Broncos vs. Chiefs game focusing on offensive and defensive strategies.
“But I think that Simmons was going to be more important.”
Bo Nix and Waddle's Influence on Game
1:21:41 to 1:23:55
Discussion on Bo Nix's performance and the potential impact of Jalen Waddle in the game.
“On the other side of the ball, it's funny.”
Analyzing Offensive Strategies
1:24:01 to 1:25:30
Discussion on quarterback strategies and receiver performance in upcoming games.
“Like, so, you know, like you said, like, this was something where it wasn't asked a lot of Bo Nix during the regular season, and then he hit on some of those throws.”
Week One Upsets and Predictions
1:25:32 to 1:27:18
Predictions and discussions on potential upsets in Week One games.
“He should have time, even though the Chiefs' defense should be improved.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00ESPN's going to Super Bowl 61 and so can you. Enter for a chance to win the trip of a lifetime. Four tickets to Super Bowl 61, plus a three-night stay at Disneyland Resort, where you and up to three guests can enjoy the magic of Disney, plus the Super Bowl champion cavalcade. Enter at www.espn.com slash sblxi by December 31st, 2026 for your chance to win. No purchase necessary. Ends 12-31-26 at 11-59 p.m. Eastern. Open only to legal residents of the 50 U.S. states and Washington, D.C., who are 18-plus at time of entry. For odds of winning and full official rules, visit www.espn.com slash sblxi.
0:29Void where prohibited.
0:34welcome back to the munich i'm show featuring lenny only nfl podcast one of the hosts thinks an ossy is a type of dog that likes to herd cattle that's lenny dominique now that you're on thursdays wednesdays i know you get to hear my jokes you said i don't do them on tuesdays lucky you has it been so long i missed them i like that one it's good uh thursday wednesday very confusing right now for all involved it is Wednesday you saw the Kyle Shanahan clip right yeah that was well what do you think who do you think is gonna have the better sleep plan the Niners or the Rams this has been one of the fun yeah I mean I think the way this has been explained to me is that the Niners will be better for this game but the Rams will be better for the following games and so like I'm gonna stick with it seems to make some bit of sense it's like they might deal with a little the the rams might deal with a little bit of challenge from just getting there and playing but they'll get back and get right on the schedule 49ers out there time traveling well the niners have the rams and then the dolphins and the cardinals so maybe this was strategic they're like let's get this game right and then if we're no disrespect to the dolphins and the cardinals uh okay so dominique is here to preview week one we're gonna talk about every game as always uh as i mentioned on tuesday's podcast make sure my days rights ben will be joining me on Tuesday to react.
1:55Dominique will be joining me every other week, but every other week I will be over at Dominique's show. So check out the Dominique Foxer show. Also, review your pods if you like to listen to both of us talk football. If not, why are you here? That would be weird. Okay, so as always, we go through every week one matchup. Some of them, we will both present keys, the bigger games. Some of them, only one of us will present a key. You know, there's a few, there's a few, there's a good week one though. Honestly, like there were a couple that could have made the big game you know like Ravens Colts is really interesting Packers Vikings is really interesting um but obviously we're going to both talk about the opener which is tonight because this is Wednesday you are listening to this on Wednesday the game tonight is Patriots Seahawks Super Bowl rematch um I will go first I got Patriots offense versus Seahawks defense and my question is who's in this secondary oh my god they've run out of safeties so the key is can you protect drake may long enough to punish this incredibly injured seahawk secondary i feel like this snuck up on people outside of seattle but seattle is heavily undermanned coming into this game uh tayo kata who was the second safety with kobe bryant gone next to julian love out uh kobe uh probably uh bud clark who was the uh rookie that they drafted this year in the second round lost for the season.
3:19Nikki Minwari looks like won't play in this game, or if he does, it would be in some very limited capacity. So they are very injured. Then we're spoon Josh Joe over your starting corners, but like I I'm looking at this Patriots revamp group of pass catchers. And I think there's a litany of ways they can attack the question Dominique. And this is obviously a referendum a little bit on the Superbowl where drake may was under siege can seattle come up with ways or pressure drake may enough to the point where they can mitigate that to some degree i think that's what's going to decide this game on that side of the ball yeah and i guess the way that you phrase it doesn't really matter but like i phrase it differently because of the super bowl it's not can seattle get there it's can the patriots protect them like it was an onslaught in the in the super bowl it felt like Like it was, it felt like we had to a referendum on like arm length for tackles and on their whole office.
4:20Like that was a, such an enormous story immediately after the Superbowl and throughout the Superbowl, I was sitting there watching it in LA, ironically, where next year's Superbowl will be with like Rex Ryan and some of the other people there. And they were just going to some of the other like football people we have at our company, they were just going nuts. And I kept looking up wondering if it was, cause we didn't have the sound on. So we're talking about each other and it just felt like, every other snap we're getting through those edges and just steamrolling will campbell in in the backfield in drake may's lap so yeah that that to me obviously there's an advantage it seems like there's an advantage for the patriots receivers against the secondary but are they going to be able to attack it doug marone who is the patriots offensive line coach is like sneaky like under pressure in this game because you know i think he wears a lot of that bad performance of the offensive line cx didn't even blitz very much but like they had like a hundred percent blitz hit rate when blitzing it was off of the same blitz over and over and it felt like new england just never adjusted so i think he's got to be prepared for you know they're i i doubt they're gonna blitz at a heavy rate especially again given how undermanned they are on the back end but like they've got to be prepared for those blitzes this time around um i think for new england two, you know, just kind of going to like, all right, how can you ensure that Drake may has the time to take advantage of your matchup advantage?
5:48It sounds a little bit paradoxical because we're talking about how the Patriots receivers are a great matchup now against Seattle, but I wouldn't be surprised also if we see them maybe put some bigger bodies on the field on our layer downs. They have the fullback Reggie Gilliam. Now they're tight ends because again, the Seahawks superpower or not again, the Seahawks superpower, well, I guess, again, if you listen to this podcast, was that they never had to respond to big bodies with big bodies, right? They would put Nikki and Wari on the field and play their big nickel or their dime, and they could defend the run at a reasonable rate.
6:21But New England couldn't even run the ball on them, right? So I wonder if New England's like, cool, we're going to put our big bodies. Let's see what you do. And in doing so, not only might we be able to run the ball and protect Drake May, A.G. Brown might get a one-on-one in this situation too. So there's some, I think, personnel games that they can play to also take advantage of all the Seahawks injuries. It's funny that in preparing for these games and watching, having all this time, there's things that don't come to your mind until you're in conversation. And I know this side of the ball is keys for you, but I would throw in there now that we're talking about it is the coaching staff of the Patriots.
7:03Because if you think back to the Super Bowl, Like they ran one protection. It was getting destroyed. They didn't do anything about it. Like to be able to have in-game adjustments. And I think you could argue about the age, like the youth that they had on that side of the ball at important positions from quarterback to left tackle might've played something into it, but you saw it throughout the course of the season. And to your point where you're making that point, I was thinking, I wonder how the Seahawks would have adjusted if the Patriots gave them some other looks and challenged them with different personnels and different formations in the course of that game or even tried new protections.
7:36They didn't do anything. Like they ran the same protections and just left them all on the island. They didn't try any new personnel. And that's like the end game adjustments to me have become so, so important in the modern NFL. No one really sticks to what they were their original game plan throughout the course of an entire game. If I remember correctly, I'm pulling this up now. I think they went like jumbo once and hit a big play and then never went back to new England. I'm looking it up now. Let's see. Yes. one play and yes one play and it went for 21 yards and then that was it yeah so that's I mean I think that's one of the keys also is um Mike McDonald we know it's gonna have a good or well maybe he doesn't have the information to use to have a really good bespoke game plan but through the course of this like they it's one thing about his defense they adjust really well uh and yeah you're going to have to force them to adjust.
8:31You have the pieces. I mean, they're just they're so hamstrung on the back end. And like as good as Seattle's defense was, and I think they're one of the two best defenses in the NFL. You know, I think back to the Bucs game that when Baker Mayfield and company shredded them, they were extremely injured in that game. At a certain point, scheme only takes you so far. You have to have, you know, starting caliber players and they hit that wall in that game and i do wonder what it's going to look like in this one before we switch the other side i would like suggest anybody who's whacking this game play pay close attention to like the first 15 of the patriots because i oftentimes the first 15 is a recon mission it's like these are the shifts in motions that we are bringing into this game we want to throw them out there and see how you adjust to it if they come out and and have a similar personnel group and they don't do much like that would be concerning to me.
9:25Like you want to check, check them on everything that you can in the first few plays. Yeah. Like what if you put Gilliam on the field on that first drive, just to see what you're going to do about this, right? Like, are you without Nikki Minwari, without the safeties, are you comfortable playing this light? And if not, let's freaking run the damn ball. Okay. On your, you've got the other side of the ball. I know that sounded dire. Seahawks fans, I promise you, it'll sound less dire on this side of the ball, at least based on what I, what I'm thinking. oh well I think on this side of the ball I was thinking the edges for um the Patriots like I have Patriots defense against Seahawks offense I think the edges are hugely important not just because the Patriots don't have great pass rushers at that spot I think that's a huge part of it but that's the obvious I also think that because they run so much man coverage the their edges ability to hold up in the run is going to be important also because you do the Seahawks will do a lot of those cross field play actions and so if you're in man coverage and you have so if you imagine the receiver going into crack the man who's covering them in man coverage is going to chase him down in there whether he's blocking or going across so that makes the edge weak and they're not going to replace on the crack very much unless it's in zone if they're in man so I think that if those edges can hold up and you saw them break some plays in early in the game some running plays because the edge didn't hold up and Gonzalez or Davis is chasing this guy in to block someone else.
10:56So they're getting a two for one because the corner's taking themselves out of the play because they're so concerned about those play action deep overs and stuff that you saw JSN just eat on. And so like, I think those edges are going to have to be good in the pass rush, but more importantly, I think they're going to have to be like stout in the run to be able to keep the cornerbacks out of it. Yeah, I have as one of my keys, can New England set an edge this time because Seattle really killed them. They weren't even that efficient running the ball in this game, but they hit some real explosive runs to the perimeter and you've got a new back here.
11:30But I think everything I've heard about their new offense coordinator, Brian Fleury, coming from San Francisco, suggests that that's something he's going to prioritize. guys, you putting also using like Brady Russell's kind of like a hybrid fullback tight end for them, but using him on motions as well as the tight ends and the receivers to try to create space on the outside for Jared Aaron Price, I think is going to be a priority. And I think to your point, I knew that I expect to play a decent amount of man coverage in this, the way they did the last time these teams played the way they did, honestly, successfully for a lot of the game.
12:03Yep. They blitzed Sam Darnold a ton the last time. And Darnold, like, struggled against it, but then they hit just enough big plays coupled with the runs for the offense to be successful. I think, you know, when I said at the top of this, like, I think they'll have more success on this side of the ball. I just feel, one, they're healthier, so we should start there. Like, the Seahawks offense is basically healthy outside of Torrey Horton. Like, this is the starting unit. And I think there's going to be some new wrinkles in the run game. that are going to be really interesting. But I also think that this is going to be a very tight ends, whatever you want to call Brady-Russell heavy offense.
12:41And that is where they had success against New England in the Super Bowl. And I think it's where they're going to have success in this one as well. The strength of this Patriots defense is those corners. JSN, for those who have forgotten, was not a big factor in the Super Bowl. And I think Seattle, one thing that I think is a big part of their offense this year is finding answers when JSN isn't. And I say that and he might go crazy and maybe he'll kill Christian Gonzalez, who's, you know, just resolved his contract. Great. But I really believe a big priority for them this offseason has been like, okay, we're playing a team that can really take out or focus on JSN.
13:16Can we attack the other, the weaknesses, safety, a little bit of a, I know they have some additions there, but linebacker in coverage. I think Seattle is equipped to do that. And I think they're going to be able to run the ball. What do you think about Elijah Arroyo? I think that he kind of feels to me like the guy that they're going to bring out in these man coverage situations and try to use him and go ahead and JSN decoy, try to use him to make replays. The other thing I don't see this very often, and it's not just of the Seahawks, but it's particularly important for them because I think they need big plays for Sam Darnold.
13:51Not that everyone doesn't need them, but they need those for Sam Darnold more than most people do. I'm really surprised that they don't, especially with a corner like Gonzalez, they don't take shots or double move on third and manageable. Because Christian Gonzalez has got some guts is the word that I'll use on those important got-to-have-it-down situations. He will sit at the sticks no matter how fast the receiver is. I'm surprised that nobody uses third and five or third and six as an opportunity to try to get a big play. if it doesn't work just punt it away because otherwise you're throwing into like a real tough spot there because he's waiting do what's your temperature level on sam darnold in this one yeah i mean i think yeah i i think they need the big places is my i wouldn't ask if they're they need to have a successful running attack and they need to find explosive plays so like i think sam darnold was capable of doing that and if the defense keeps it close but i wouldn't want him given what we saw in the super bowl last year i wouldn't want to go at it like they did in that rams um playoff game the thing about super bowl is like and darnold has talked about this they actually left a bunch of big plays on the table with like slight misses yeah and so i really think that they have the pieces though the other the other factor here is clint kubiak i thought by the end of the season was just tremendous for Seattle.
15:21And, you know, this is a new play caller. All right, so, like, I'll just say, I think I feel close in high scoring. That's where I'm going here. I feel like you're going to pick New England because of the Seahawks injuries. No? You sounded so negative and doubting this whole time. Yeah, I was concerned about it, but that pass rush was a lot last time. I need to see something different. Do you think I'm off with the high scoring? Crazy to say about the Seahawks defense. They're just so injured on the back end. Yeah. I think the difference between our analysis is you believe that they're going to be able to block it up or they're going to find other ways to attack that secondary.
16:12I think I don't believe that they are. they're going to be able to exploit the secondary as much. So I could certainly see a high scoring situation if Darnold hits those big plays. But I guess I'm banking on the pass rush and Mike McDonald figuring it out. I'm taking Seattle, but I think this is very close. If it was in New England, I might flip it. It's hard. I mean, you're the defending champ. You're putting up the banner. You can't lose. I want to be clear. I know the ceilocks like if you were healthy i would pretty i would definitely take seattle it's just they're so injured and in this area they're injured in at a place where they're very strong too it's like it's not like we yeah yeah it's not like we get we hide this group all the time like this that unique group is part of the reason why they were so good last year so you're seattle too yep i'm seattle all right niners rams in australia no aaron donald didn't think aaron donald's gonna play this was like no aaron donald i saw today i was like yeah right who thought i didn't think he was gonna i don't know whatever um all right so you have the rams offense versus the niners defense why don't you go first in this one the rams uh like the lone pronounced weakness they have is their tackles and honestly they did whatever they wanted with the 49ers the last time they played but the 49ers were entirely different personnel wise on defense and had a different coordinator so Raheem Morris is stepping in and they get back most importantly Fred Warner but they just get back a reasonable or a number of starting level players, which they didn't have on the field last year.
18:03So it's hard to like gauge it off what they did last year. They started to get away from the things that they do normally because they were in so much trouble. But I do think that like the key to this game is are they going to be able to find ways to attack those tackles? It's one place where you feel like you have some sort of weakness that the Rams have offensively and get in Stafford's face and cause some havoc. Of course, they need to be able to stop the run, but I was looking for an advantage that they could have. So initially, they have to stop the run and put them in situations where they can expose those tackles.
18:35It's exactly my thinking. It's all about this is a down and distance. Like if you can get them into third down, I actually think it switches. This gets kind of lost, but the Rams offense last year was first DPA per play on first down. They were 22nd on third down. They just were never in third and long. Shepard had the lowest conversion distance on third down in the NFL. And some of that was because of him. Some of it was because they had an unbelievably efficient run game. So the Niners run defense last year was an abomination. But like you said, obviously they were very injured. You have Warner back.
19:16Bosa, I believe, is going to play in this game. um um you're two of some of those you know all those young defensive tackles cj west alfred collins like can they be better you don't have michael williams back yet uh i i kind of think that's it like if the niners defense can't stop the rams run game on early downs which and of course their play action pass attack is tied to that i don't think they've got a shot in this one so like it's funny because the niners i'm going to actually say something kind of like the inverse on the other side of the ball but like last year they were just so bad running the ball and stopping the run and they were still great in spite of that I think this year their ceiling is going to be determined why whether or not they can do either of those things at least at an average level yeah yeah the ability um for them to be able to stop the run and put them in it's not only just stop the run to your point they're really good on first down not just because they were running there but like we all know like that's the best time to throw the ball especially you're going to do play action is like first down so they're really good on first down so it's win the first down and that starts with their ability to to stop the run but the reinforcements that they or i guess the enforcements that they have received through health and through free agency on the defense it's i think that's going to be interesting test to determine what type of season they're going to have is they really had kind of a miracle season they don't give out trophies for it but like what they accomplished last year was absolutely incredible considering that they couldn't run the ball and their entire defense is depleted, but somehow they, they made it to almost winning this division and, uh, won a playoff game against the Eagles.
20:54Uh, I'm also interested in if whether or not Raheem Morris puts his stamp on this defense at all and what that even looks like in 2026, cause we kind of are removed from, you know, he wasn't play call or defensive play caller in Atlanta. I'm interested in seeing if he mixes it up at all for them in terms of their pressures. Because it's been like the same defense, you know, for years now. They changed some last year. But, yeah, I mean, good point. They've changed by they just had to by the end of the year to do a little bit more interesting things, the 49ers defense. But, yeah, Raheem Morris is going to look entirely different.
21:28I would assume that they're going to hand it over to him. You don't bring him in unless that's the plan. They said that about Steve Wilkes. True. All right. Like I said, it's basically the inverse for me. Niners offense versus Rams defense. Can you be moderately efficient on first down? So no Aaron Donald, but like it, honestly, this is, it's the same analysis kind of applies with Miles Garrett and Kobe Derner and whatnot and Byron Young and brain frisk and Puna Ford and all of that. But like we alluded to this, the, the Niners rushing attack last year was like really bad And first down, they were 26 in yards per carry.
22:10And a lot of that had to do with the offensive line. And also defenses, I think, not entirely fearing that they would use the entire field to passing attack. Again, obviously a lot of injuries played into that. I don't think to beat the Rams, you have to have an unbelievable rushing attack. But you have to make them respect it, at least to the point, too, where you can attack the backers in coverage, which is the one weakness, relative weakness that the Rams defense has, which is what Kyle Shanahan does, right? Like he, the famous microscope beam, he draws a microscope. Kyle Shanahan has one mission in this game.
22:46It's to get those linebackers on the field and find ways to put them in conflict. There you go. That's two missions, to be clear. Because I think the first mission is going to be the hard one. Getting them in conflict, Kyle Shanahan can do that in his sleep. getting them on the field I think given what Chris Shula did last year and what they've yeah what they added to their defensive line like I I've been trying to force I guess I'm on get up not NFL live so no one wants to have to like get up when I have the NFL live level conversation on get up but I've been trying to force them to talk about like how significant the D line is to allow them to be able to play dime is like we talk about how these tight end offenses are designed to make you put your linebackers your I feel the the antsiness just go ahead just whatever you got to say last time that they played the Rams were in base defense 45 % of the time which was their second highest rate of the entire season okay this is against the Niners.
23:50The Niners, against those looks, actually threw the ball pretty well, obviously, right? Could not run the ball for anything. So what I'm interested in is if you're Chris Shula, to your point, are you like, you know what? Run the ball on us. Yeah. Let's see it. That's the hidden thing in the Miles Garrett acquisition and then the Aaron Downer acquisition. The point that I was trying to make is that I think that they want to eliminate linebackers. I think that their goal is to eliminate the linebacker position. They might have one linebacker out there just because they have to, but I think that because they recognize that that's the conflict that's created is their D-line, while we talk about the pass rush and how hard it's going to be able to block them, I think the difference in teams that are able to, like the Seahawks, that are able to stand up in lighter packages against the run, it's not only that Nick Immory is physical enough and that Devin Witherspoon is physical enough.
24:49It's that their front. Yeah, their front plays really well against the run. Leonard Williams is one of the best defensive tackles against the front in the run of the entire NFL. And I think that's part of the strategy is like we're going to be really good up front. We're not going to be intimidated against whatever personnel group you put out there because the best thing we can have out there to eliminate big plays is speed. We'll keep the speed out there and dare you to run the ball at us. Kuna Ford on early downs. Yeah. I promise they're going to play Penny. It's not going to be anybody out there, but DB, just safeties and corners and, and Miles Garrett.
25:27And that's it. The linebacker disrespect. Yeah. I, I, I, you know, I've been talking about this last week. We talked about like what offenses can like actually take on this defense. Seattle, interestingly enough, has the tight ends to do it. Buffalo is one. And San Francisco is one that hypothetically could, but not if they can't run the ball at all. They don't even need to be explosive running the ball. They don't. They just can't be as bad as they were last year. It is remarkable how good this Niners team was last year, given that they couldn't run the ball or stop the run. When you think about it, it is insane.
26:11All that said, I'm taking the Rams. I assume you are too. Yeah, I am too. Are you not factoring the travel situation in at all? I am interested in seeing the results of it. I have zero opinions about sports science because I'm not educated in that regard. But I am going to wildly overreact to the outcome of this game when it comes to international travel in the future. All right. One more game to talk about in depth before we move on to some quick hitters. Buck Spangles. Sneaky great game. I'll go first in this one because I have the Bucks offense versus the Bengals defense um so I want it's funny I swear to god I'll stop saying test the linebackers but like it's kind of what you want to do against this Bengals it is the glaring weakness of so many teams including Cincinnati but I put Tampa Bay can you run the ball better than you did last year and also bring down Baker Mayfield's depth of target because I really think that's how you beat Cincinnati here is running the football and short throws.
27:19Last year on short throws, the Bengals gave up 6.7 yards per play, which is the second worst in the NFL. They were horrendous against screens. And obviously the run defense was abysmal. I would say with Dexter Lawrence in the middle now, the edges are going to be better, but you really want to get the linebackers moving side to side. I looked this up because it felt, I was like, I knew it would be bad. On runs outside the tackles last year, guess how many yards per carry Cincinnati gave up? It was worse than the NFL. Just guess. Just guess. Five. 7.4. Nope. That's not possible. Five is crazy, huh?
28:02Five is 7.4. So Tampa last year, I think a lot of the struggles of the offense were running the football. And then I really think Baker, they should have like brought down his depth of target. And, you know, this used to be a great screen game, offensive line injuries, offensive line is healthy now. And Bucky Irving is healthy, hypothetically. Got Kenny Gainwell. So I'm really like, you don't need to air this out against Cincinnati is my point. Just run the football, test them on the ground and quick passing short throws, I really think, can work against this defense. you you don't think that cincinnati or i guess you test them out to see if they've addressed it but yeah i mean because it's not the same bangles same linebackers yeah same linebackers but like the d line has been overhauled which i think is big that matters a huge amount we'll see but yeah on the other side of the ball like maybe you're a bit of a broken record but i am too i think this is about two things it's about the the like mediocre i guess bangles offensive line against what i think is going to be a really really impressive defensive line of of the bucks that along with the youth so like if the young players including bane trotter and keontae scott uh the their nickel out of miami who i loved him when i was watching tape just like the his attitude his intensity at Miami.
29:27Those guys need to step up and play well. They're important parts of this team, and I think it's going to come down to if the defensive front is just getting after Mims and Brown, which I think they probably will. Speaking of the young guys, including that Reuben Bain is a part of that really dominant front. Yeah, Bain's offensive line is absolutely improved. Orlando Brown Jr. is maybe the matchup I'm looking at. if he's getting a one-on-one versus Diaby or Bain? Is that a matchup? Tampa wins. Earlier in the week, I had Tampa as my pass rush that could take the huge leap this year. I'm very excited about this defense.
30:06It's funny because Cincinnati is like, hypothetically, I'll stop saying hypothetically, but they're supposed to, and we've seen this in the preseason a bit, have this a bit of an offensive makeover in terms of getting under center, tacking downfield, run the ball from under center. but it does feel like against Tampa, the old offense might be the way to get him, which is burrowing the gun, ball out quick, make him tackle in space. Because the Bengals' biggest advantage here, obviously, is their receivers against the Bucs' corners. Even though they're not bad, but it's just the Bengals. The Bengals' receivers are going to be good against anybody.
30:45So, you know, this is a very difficult run defense. So, yeah. That old Bengals style, it led to Joe Burrow holding onto the ball a lot for too long. I'd be concerned about breaking that out of week one, but I get your point because I know maybe he should get rid of the ball quickly, but he doesn't always. Those matchups are not great. This is one where the time to throw is going to be huge. I actually don't know who's the favorite in this one. Now I want to see because I think this is close. I'm taking Cincinnati. I would go Tampa. Okay, cool. I mean, this has got to be, it's in Tampa, right? No, it's in Cincinnati.
31:28Okay, so I feel good about Cincinnati. I feel like these are pretty, yeah, so it's Cincinnati 3.5. That's basically close to a pick-em. That's right. I think, I'm excited to see this young Bengals, this Bucs defense, but they're, week one, this is a tough draw for them. Bengals offense, I think, is going to be really good. So, all right. Good. I like it when we don't pick all the same. Saints Lions is me. I wrote for my key, Tyler Shuck versus the Blitz. Really like Tyler Shuck. I think this Saints offense is going to be better. But that was one area where he really struggled last season when Blitzed.
32:12He was 27th in success rate, 28th on target rate, 26 in yards per attempt, 28th, took a lot of sacks against the Blitz. And I think Detroit is probably going to bring a lot of, which they always do. But with some of the question marks too and the rest of that defense, I feel like this is going to be a game where they bring a lot of pressure. So I want to see if Tyler, I'm not saying he can't. I want to see, this is year two, he was a rookie. Offensive line should be better than they were last season. so I think this is a good kind of heat check not just for Shuck and his development but also for this Detroit pass rush because all offseason been saying love Detroit offense Detroit defense a lot of question marks can they get to the quarterback opposite Hutchinson what is the secondary they're so injured yada yada so I'm kind of I feel like if there are glaring warning signs in this game that's going to be concerning moving forward yeah absolutely I mean I think the the expectations for the Lions are different than those of the Saints.
33:11But I think you're right. Like, Shook, the question is, can he be the long-term answer? And the bar is higher for a player like him than it is going to be for, like, a highly drafted guy. So he's not going to get multiple years to try to figure this out. If he doesn't figure out the shortcomings that he has this year, I think it's probably likely that they look elsewhere, especially if the season goes badly enough that they're high in the draft and can look, which is a possibility. I think they're a pretty talented team, but not at that key position. So things could happen there. We'll see. I think, yeah, the Lions, we'll find out a lot about them early in this season about how high the expectations should be.
33:51That whole division, with the exception of the Vikings, I guess you can include them too. That whole division is just like, what's up with your defense? It's like the question for everybody in that division. And it's hard for me to feel good about that defense considering what's happened to their secondary right now. So, yeah, we'll see. Also, good heat check for the Lions' offensive line because the Saints' defensive line really improved last season. Chase Young, I talked about over the offseason, was quite good. Granderson. So, you know, I think for – But even that said, they're not going to be one of the best pass rushers you face.
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34:26So, I think Detroit, let's see if this – We talk about the Niners having like a sneaky bad run game. Let's see if Detroit can run the ball. The Saints' run defense was quite good, and they'll play a lot of base. They'll put three linebackers on the field against Detroit. But, you know, it's been – wasn't it quietly – Jameer Gibbs, as productive as he was, did not actually – was not efficient at running the ball through no fault of his own for the most part last year. So I'm going to take Detroit here. Yeah, I go Detroit also and root for Gibbs for the sake of your fantasy team. Didn't you get him?
35:02Well, I haven't taken him yet, but I have the first overall pick. Are you going to give it some Gibbs-related name? It's always Lenny's Dogs. We keep the same names every year. Jets, Titans, Dominique. America's game. Yeah. I think this one came down to, for me at least, the coach-quarterback combo, like the new coach-quarterback combos that we have. Yeah. Gino Smith is going to be with, I don't want to say Shane Stike. It's not Shane Stike. Yeah. Yeah. Frank Reich. That's why Shane Stike is on line. Frank Reich back on the sideline is going to be one of those like, well, kind of moments. Yeah.
35:43I think that's the question is like, we'll see if Gino, that issue that he, or the issues he had last year were a result of the coach quarterback combo he had then. Like he's in a, it seems like a much better situation surroundings as far as talent is concerned, particularly on the offensive line with two good tackles and weapons and receivers a good running back like it's a good situation but the question is going to be does he feel comfortable in frank rike's offense on the other side we got day ball um and ward like that's it feels like the bloom is starting to come off of that like rose a lot sooner than people had anticipated like i think the expectations were we have a really big athletic quarterback who reminds us of josh allen it's like that trap that Josh Allen has created for everyone.
36:29It's like, yeah, you just got to get the right coach with him. And I know people have been investigating Brian Dayball's past and quarterback success and looking at it in the light now. It's like, did he really do that much? And we look at, it's like he got around, he was around Josh Allen when Josh Allen ascended. And that could have been a lot more credit to Stefan Diggs than Brian Dayball and the other innovation around or the other successful quarterback developments. It's hard to say that Brian Dayball is that guy. So I think we'll see what happens there. I think that game will be decided by that.
37:07Honestly, like surprisingly with lean Jets in this matchup. Yeah. In part because the, yeah, the Titans preseason was pretty alarming. Jets should be one of the softer starts for them In terms of the secondary I do think the Jets though Passerish could be sneaky You know, Will McDonald, David Bailey Kingsley and Barre Devondra said on the inside And I hope I'm wrong about the Titans After the preseason But it was a concerning outing I do like though The idea of investigating Brian Taylor People are investigating like Pablo Torre is going to drop an episode. Did Brian D 'Abel really help group Josh Allen?
37:59I mean, the stamp of quarterback whisper gets put on people really quickly sometimes. And I'm not sure we can point to all that much whispering he's done. I will say Titans defense. The opposite of the D 'Abel, did he really quarterback whisper is Robert Sala, who has had a clear and obvious effect on defenses as a coach. So, and this is his revenge game. Yep. So that's something. And Aaron Glenn, I mean, I think it's all about coaches here because Aaron Glenn is taking over the defense. And after they set a record for zero interceptions, he's going to put his stamp on the defense, which is how he got the job.
38:38So, yeah, we'll see. It's a big coaching game. All right. We're both taking the Jets. What a sentence. Ravens Colts. Okay. So this is the, I really want to get eyes on this one because I think it's really interesting for a litany of reasons. I could talk about the new Ravens offense, attacking the Colts linebackers, which is what I would do. But I'm really interested in how Daniel Jones responds to pressure and if there is pressure, because I think that question is going to really, not just determine this matchup, but maybe the course of both of those two teams this season. And it's kind of one of those, like, I just want to see it, right?
39:15So on the Ravens side, we know that this is a completely revamped defensive front. Totally different. Nnamdi Madubike took off the neck roll in practice, so that's going to be a thing. Next to Travis Jones, Clayton Campbell, Trey Hendrickson was brought in to get sacks. A bunch of young pass rushers behind him. Jesse Minter. So a lot of creativity also in the rush. Meanwhile, on the other side, Daniel Jones. I want to see it. I want to see how he moves. I mentioned this talking about him, I think, when I did my AFC South pod, But something I think a little bit lost in the injury last season and how it ended was that in the weeks before the injury, he really started to struggle under pressure.
39:56Like weeks one through eight, he was unbelievable under pressure, like better than he's ever been by a mile. And then after that, and there were still some injuries that played into it, really started. He went from third in pressure to sack rate to 28th, second in QBR to 27th. Like all of his numbers started falling off a cliff, right? So where is the truth? And also, can he move? I think, you know, is something we actually just need to see. So I'm really interested this week one, that particular factor, which is just, I want to see both sides of that. question different injuries mean different things to different players and athleticism to daniel jones is so core to what has made when he has been effective that's so core to what has made him effective like i'm uh i think i'm with you as i want to see it but like this quick off achilles like it's hard for me to have the expectations that it's going to be good but i do want to see And it started to fall apart a little last year before the injuries started to take place.
41:07Because he had one injury before he had the season-ending injury. But even before that, things started to get a little wonky there with that offense. So I think it'll be really tough for him, even if this Ravens defense hasn't improved and doesn't have a new coordinator. I think it was going to be tough for them offensively without Daniel Jones being able to threaten with his legs in the way that he kind of always has. Ravens for me. Yeah, Ravens. I mentioned the Colts is a team that could look better in the second half of the season than the first with all of the guys coming off of injuries. Yeah, I just want to see how he moves, man.
41:42Is he under center a lot? How is he moving coming off of under center? It's not just about, you know, your point is really important too when we talk about his athleticism because it's not like Daniel Jones' design runs. That wasn't even a big part of their offense last year. It's much more the, like part of the reason why he was so amazing under pressure in those first, you know, eight games is because of his movement ability. And there's some questions. Colts are one of the harder teams to get your arms around right now. All right. Falcon Steelers, the Tua Tungabailoa, finally officially announced as starting quarterback, led Falcons against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who may have Joey Porter Jr.
42:21Maybe that'll be resolved by the time this hits your ears. What are you watching for here? It's a lot of delicate QBs at one place at one time. So I think for me, we know that the Falcons' pass rush is pretty much gone at this point. So I think Aaron Rodgers will be pretty comfortable back there. But the question for me is how good is the Steelers' defense? And in particular, like the front and the pass rush, like are they going to be healthy and back? Because we expected better from them defensively last year. And I think if that, depending on what type of defense we get from them, I think we'll decide this game.
42:53I don't think there'll be much threat. But, I mean, the weapons for the Falcons are obviously there. The arm strength for Tua is what it is. So the expectation is get the ball out of his hands quickly to mitigate whatever pass rush that they do have and see if you can make some sort of damage that way. So I think the Steelers are going to have an easier time offensively because there is no pass rush to threaten Aaron Rodgers. He can still throw. He can still throw if no one's going to be in his face. So unless they can scheme up a way to blitz him, just a straight four-man pass rush and aaron rogers gonna have a pretty good game yeah vastly different situations up front for these quarterbacks and what they're facing with rogers facing the easier one by far um i think you know pittsburgh is funny because you know i alluded to porter jr a lot of moving parts in the secondary guys who haven't played together this offseason Porter Jr.
43:51has been holding out or holding in or whatever. The safeties are all coming off of injuries. Brisker, Elliott, Ramsey, Jamel Dean is new. So if it was a really good passing attack, I would say make them communicate. It's a new defense, Patrick Graham. I just don't think Tua's capable of testing them downfield, maybe in a way that challenges that. Sometimes Steelers' defense has struggled with motion in the run game. so I think for Kim Stefanski maybe and Tommy Reese there's a way to weaponize Bijan against those linebackers but I just I just don't have any faith in this quarterback so I'm going Pittsburgh here and the top defense defense just all right one more game and we'll take a break this one's mine Bears Panthers hmm Caleb Williams versus Bryce Young the two sides of the trade um I'm going to focus on it's funny because now that I think about it like this is like Bryce Young really this is you should be able to move the ball but I'm going to focus on the more interesting side to me which is Caleb Williams against this Panthers defense because I really do think this Panthers defense is going to be improved this season and uh what I feel as the biggest mismatch in this game, which is the Bears' tight ends and slot receivers, specifically Loveland and Burden, against the Panthers' safeties in slot.
45:21The Panthers are just one of those defenses where they have such glaring strengths and such obvious weaknesses. The strengths are the corners. Now you have Devin Loy, he's better at linebacker, but they remain incredibly dubious at safety and in the slot, and Chicago is very equipped to attack that with Colston Loveland, who, you know, in this game, I mean, you can just put him in the slot like pretty much the entire game if you want, I feel like, or in line. And I think, you know, it's just, while I do think this Carolina defense is going to be better, I just think this is a particularly, this is a tough matchup for them through the air.
46:05Now, I will say Chicago's got some question marks on their offensive line. Maybe Carolina can get it going against. But I just don't think they're going to have an answer for Loveland in particular. Yeah, I love the Panthers' corners. I enjoyed watching them last year with Horn and Jackson. I think you're right, and I think they know that Loveland is not a secret. I'd be interested in how they're going to attack it. the Bears receiving core. Doomsday has like a issue, right? And obviously we all thought Luther Burton had a really good rookie season. He still should have some impact, but the other weapon they had, DJ Moore, before it's gone.
46:48So I feel pretty good about the corners. I guess as good as you can feel about corners on any team, it's hard to find a team that has two good corners and they have it to me. So I'd be interested to see what they do to address that, if they would isolate out there and try to give help or if they would move one of those corners to guard or go nickel to guard Loving and move one of those corners in and challenge them to go outside. So yeah, that to me, I think they know. I think they would come into this game expecting that Loveland is going to be key to their game plan. I have as a note, and I'm like, is this right?
47:20That the Panthers defense allowed 0.4 EPA per play to tight ends, which is insane. It feels right. but like that's a really high number uh yeah uh they were much better against wide receivers obviously all right uh i'm gonna take chicago here oh i said i don't know i don't know if we said stealers we're both taking the stealers i presume yeah yeah we both stayed taking the stealers all right i mean we didn't even talk about the other side of the ball though which is like the bears defense is yeah i i'm i think i would go hmm yeah i think i'm going out of the way I mean, I've talked about this nonstop.
48:06The Bears defense is really up against it. Yeah, tough spot. All right. Let's take a quick break, come back, and get to maybe my favorite game of the entire weekend. Browns-Jaguan. I'm just kidding. It's a different game. The greats don't shy away from change. They attack it head on with confidence, preparation, and a clear strategy. KPMG LLP and their transformation professionals work with organizations across industries using advanced AI to help them move faster, work smarter, and adapt with purpose. Because in today's business environment, winning teams don't react to change, they shape it.
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50:05Shopify.com slash network. Evan Cohen here. Game day brings the excitement. Your stay should feel just as memorable. With Marriott Bonvoy, official hotel partner of the NCAA and U.S. soccer, you're connected to a portfolio of brands designed for how you travel. Some offer complimentary breakfast. Others give you room to spread out, space to stay productive, or extended stay comforts. So whether you're a traveling fan or part of the team, Marriott Bonvoy celebrates the moments that live on before and after the game. Marriott Bonvoy, where game day checks in. All right, we're back. Dominique. Browns Jaguars.
50:45What's your key? Oh, okay. We're doing this one. Okay, cool. We are doing this one. We're going to do this one. I'm just joking. I'm just joking. That was easy. I mean, the Browns, they're still good up front despite losing Myles Garrett. And the Jags, they're only, or it seems their biggest weakness is their offensive line. So, like, that's a matchup that I'll be watching. And honestly, this is a bit of, like, a football cliche, but I think it comes down to, like, turnovers. It's like, I think the Jags are definitely a better team. but I think Deshaun Watson's not going to take very many chances down the field.
51:17I don't see the Browns turning the ball over that much, and it's kind of the opposite with Trevor Lawrence and the Jags is they're going to be aggressive and take chunk plays. So being smart in there and not giving opportunities for turnovers because I think the Jags are definitely a better team. They have risk there for sack fumbles because their O-line is not great, and they have risk there for interceptions because they'll take shots down the field. I think the Browns will go conservative, and what you've seen from Deshaun Watson lately is not someone who wants to attack down the field. So I think the only way they win this game is if they get a short field a couple times as a result of turnovers from the Jags.
51:58So I think I've given away my pick pretty obviously, but no one will be surprised. I think the Jags will win this one. Yeah, I'm interested in seeing the Jags run defense without Devin Lloyd. You know, I made no secret of the fact that I'm very high on the Jags I think they're really bad. You and I, I remember when we did our power rankings, we both had that we had ended up having them really high. So I think that's something I'll be watching because if you can shut this Browns run game down, it's like, you know, probably not going to. Nothing else. Yeah. I will say like, yeah, like Browns defense is still good.
52:28So it's a good challenging matchup for this Jags offense. I want to, I've talked about seeing if the Jags run defense is good. I want to see if the Jags can run the ball better than they did second half of last season. Because I do think this Browns, they should still have a good run. Brown Stevens is still going to be good. I have them floating outside the top 10. I do think offenses are going to play them pretty differently, though, without Myles Garrett. Probably throw more. Jared Burris is a very good run defender.
53:01They'll be challenged in ways that they haven't been challenged when 95 was on the field. But lots of good, talented young players. All right. I'm on the Jags as well. Bills Texans. Yeah. This is my favorite game of the week. The Bills offense versus the Texas defense. It's funny, right, though? Because on one hand, I'm like, yeah, let's go. Fireworks. And on the other hand, the Texans have been a house of horrors. Yes. I went back and watched those games. Oh, God. Last two years, Josh Allen against everyone else, first in QBR, first in EPA replay, you know, just whatever. Josh Allen against the Texans, like bottom in the NFL type numbers.
53:53It's been rough. My key, and I think just to get a drill down to the nitty gritty a bit on that side of the ball, can Buffalo actually beat man coverage this year? so last time they played week 12 2025 texans played more man coverage even they are they do play a decent amount but they played a lot against josh allen and he had a qbr of 7.5 against it um so dj more is now buffalo bill and something we've talked about a lot on this show is whether he can it doesn't he doesn't have to be freaking you know jsn but like can he give them a credible answer to man coverage now unfortunately i think the answer to that question is yes but i will say the texans is a little bit different from most teams in the nfl when we're talking about man coverage so but i do think that's going to be very significant in this game especially given alan's history against this team yeah i mean i i yeah i mean it's pretty straightforward as possible right there it's like they they're giving them hell because no one's open and he needs still like i think i haven't looked at the numbers recently but i if you were to say that there was a weakness for the texan defense it is like the quarterback scramble that's what it's been historically yeah and they met right yeah they managed to do like uh josh allen would have some plays but it's kind of like uh you you'll give it up because most of the time they They keep them contained.
55:30They put pressure on them, and they stress them out, and they cause turnovers. It's like, to your point, it's a house of horrors for him. So I'm interested to see how they answered. And you're right. They made the argument in the past that they didn't really need a number one receiver. I guess Brandon Bean made the argument. But I think in the bigger games, you kind of see that you've got to give them some help. You've got to give them a weapon that people care about and have to game plan for and are afraid and will think twice about Blitzen because that really helps against the more athletic quarterbacks to get someone in their face.
56:00If you don't have someone out there to threaten them, that might turn into a big play. It's just get a first down, fine. You line up and do it again. The more times you ask Josh Allen to do that, the harder it's going to be. I think the chain reaction of having DJ Moore, if DJ Moore can be that impactful, is going to be huge for Josh Allen in this team. You've got the lesser side of the ball for both teams. Which is interesting, right? One side is such a rock fight. And then the other side is, you know, kind of like a who's who better. This is not the test. I mean, I guess it's a good early test for the Jim Leonard defense because, as everyone knows, the ability to stop the run was a big problem for them last year.
56:46And that was like the crux of all of their issues and probably shouldn't have gotten past the Jags because they couldn't stop the run in the playoffs, but they managed to do that because the Jacks decided they no longer wanted to run the ball. So that's, to me, the big question is, like, is Jim Leonard, his presence? Because there hasn't been, like, a personnel overhaul. And I know they're going from a 4-3 to a 3-4, which, like, it doesn't always matter that much. But I think in this case, it does matter because they were bad against the run. And your hope is that they'll be able to address it.
57:23but a lot of times teams live in nickel anyway, so the 3-4-4-3 thing doesn't matter. But what I think they're going to see from the Texans, especially given their receivers' injuries, is a lot of 12. And so they'll probably be in a lot of base, which means the personnel of the 3-4 matters a lot. To have a big inside run stuffer would be nice for them to have, but I don't know that they've addressed that adequately. so we'll see what happens with their defense but I think that's the big question is Jim Leonard's ability to transform this defense it's a lot of pressure on Leonard man because like you said this is not a big personnel they didn't go out and get Kuna Ford or you know like a big run stuffer yeah DJ Moore who like you go get Vita Veo when he was upset but anyway Josh Allen run the team no just kidding Um, yeah, I used to everyone kind of knew.
58:21I don't know if people appreciate how bad the bills run defense was last year. I mean, I was just looking at like some of their numbers. They allowed the most yards after contact per carry of any team in the NFL worse than the Cowboys giants and bangles. Uh, they allowed the second highest rate of first downs per carry. And it was a, a team wide issue. I would say, um, all three levels. So for Leonard, it's a lot of pressure. Like I I've been, interested in seeing, you know, from what I understand, I think we're going to see a lot of movement on the defensive line as a way of, you know, trying to mitigate that to some degree.
58:59But I don't know. It's an issue. Now, all that said, this Houston team going to run the ball last year and you got Dave Montgomery and you got tight end and we'll see but i all this is a great like who's still bad the texas defense against the bills offense is like a clash of the titans yeah it's it's a no win it's a no win situation where it's like it's like if you if you manage to stop the texans running attack no one's gonna be like yeah you fix that run defense and the same thing for the texans if you manage to run the ball against the bills. We're not going to be like, yeah, you can run the ball now.
59:43So it's a no one situation, but someone has to come out feeling good about themselves. Are you going to go Texans or bills here? I've oscillated. I'll go bills. Yeah, I think I do think this offense is going to be better. And they were great last year. I don't know about the other side of the ball. I don't know what to make of it. So yeah, this is, that's a close one. I really don't know. All right. Two equally incredible teams, the dolphins and the Raiders, my game. All right. I wrote, can Brock Bowers put up JSN numbers? This is the week to find out. This is kind of one of the questions of the Raiders entire off season, which is just like how much Brock Bauer, you know, we know not just because Clint Kubiak in Seattle use JSN to such an extreme degree, but because this Raiders receiving group remains a concern.
1:00:38Bowers, we didn't see in the preseason. Mayer looked great, by the way, but I do think, and I'm just looking at this Dolphins dip chart, and there ain't anyone on here who can stop Brock Bowers. The secondary right now is Juju Brents, Chris Johnson, who I loved, but it's a rookie corner, Jason Marshall Jr., Dante Trader Jr., Michael Taffy. What's Well, yeah, I don't want to be mean. So it's going to be challenging. I think the Dolphins offense is going to be more fun than the Dolphins defense this year. And maybe they'll do some funky stuff in this game. I'll be interested in seeing how weird they can get on offense.
1:01:20But I just think the Raiders have more NFL starter players than the Dolphins right now. I'm picking the Raiders to win the game. Yeah, I'll take the Raiders also. So I have nothing else to add to this game other than I agree with you. I'll take the Raiders. All right. Packers Vikings. This is a big one. This could have been, we could have talked about this one at length. This is your game. I'm interested in the hierarchy. Yeah. I mean, I think this is the questions go to the Vikings side for me for both of the questions that I have coming into this game and keys to this game. It's pretty obvious that it's a, well, it's not obvious that it's a revenge game for Kyler Murray going up against Jonathan Gannon.
1:01:58his coach down in Arizona. Isn't he the coordinator now for the defense in Green Bay? So that, but I mean, the question is, how will Kyler Murray fit into this KLC offense? And also for me is Brian Flores, like is he going to be able to scheme around the weaknesses and the loss of Grenard on defense? And like, those are the questions for me. I feel like I have a good grip on what's happening for the Packers. Like, I think their defense is going to be struggling, and I don't think that there's a question that could be answered. They'll be like, oh, yeah, they're actually better than I think. And I think the offense is going to be relying on Jordan Love and Christian Watson and Tucker Craft.
1:02:45So, like, I think the Vikings – I'm interested in seeing the Vikings floor. Like, I think this game will tell me a lot about what the Vikings floor is And I think their floor and their ceiling could potentially be higher than that of the Packers. Two starting Packers offensive linemen are questionable in this game. Zach Bacoboele, who's their best offensive lineman, formerly Zach Tom, and then Aaron Banks. That makes me really nervous. Brian Flores will find ways to attack them. But Tucker Craft and Christian Watson are in this game. and Matthew Golden. So I'm really struggling with that, with the uncertainty around those two players, especially Baco Boile.
1:03:30If he told me he was playing, I think I would be pretty comfortable. I do think Minnesota is going to be able to run the ball on the Packers. Oh, this is a tricky one. This is a tricky one because I do not. I think Packers defense is going to be bad the first few weeks of the season. I'm going to go Green Bay here solely because I do think this offense is good enough to overcome a shaky offensive line, but I don't feel good about it at all. Yeah. Yeah. I'm going Vikings for the same reasons you went Green Bay. If I see, it's not out of question that Green Bay could win, but I think it's a lights out performance by Jordan Love, which I think that's harder to predict than I think Flores will figure it out on defense and Kyler Murray will be average to above average, which is what you need over there.
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1:06:14The inside story of the biggest scandal in modern baseball. He was absolutely bananas, the amount of bets he was making. I've never seen anyone like it. From 30 for 30 podcasts, this is The Betrayal of Shohei Otani. Presented by Gusto. New episodes available now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. All right. Commander's Eagles is me. I wrote. Yeah. I wrote Battle of the Young Coaches, Sean Mannion versus Durante Jones. I'm really interested in this. Mannion, the Eagles' new play caller, Durante Jones, Washington's play caller. Part because we're not quite sure what we're going to get out of either.
1:07:01I think we know some of their tendencies. We know the trees that they come from. But we haven't really seen Jalen Hurts in the new offense. We've had glimpses of it in preseason. It's not looked great, but it's not been with the quarterback. and they've been missing other players as well. And then on the flip side, Durante Jones comes from the Brian Flores tree. And I will say, so it's funny because on his face, a lot of those things are things that Hertz has struggled with, simulated pressure, his own coverage behind it. But Hertz has been very good against Minnesota. And last year he shredded them.
1:07:32I forgot all about this game. He destroyed them. So I don't know. I'm interested. I want to see what both those two units look like because I feel like that these are kind of two presents I've been waiting to unwrap that's so funny like I vaguely remember it now did you bring it up but I had forgotten about that also I would have assumed that hurts for struggle against it but I guess the the complicated the answer for the complicated defense is the simple offense which is what they were running last year like let's just keep it simple so I don't know I'd be interested to see how far into the Flores bag Durante Jones actually is or how close he is as a fruit falling from that tree because no one really does this it's it's them and everyone else so that'll be interesting to see what they do there but I think it's pretty obvious that like the Eagles have just about every advantage uh in in these matchups especially along the defensive front against that offensive front like it's gonna be just gonna be really hard to do anything offensively you have a quarterback who you're scared to get hit you don't want to run them an offensive line that is among the worst in football yeah uh I I actually last on Tuesday we had a great question that I wrote, which was which offensive line could tank the season?
1:09:01And there's the obvious choices, the Chargers, the Raiders. We threw at the Packers, but I totally forgot Washington. And one of my commenters pointed that out. I was like, oh yeah, I should have mentioned Washington. It's really hard for me to get excited about this new look Washington offense with the state of the offensive line right now. I'd love to be wrong because I really miss watching Jane Daniels ball out. But like Dominique, it's and I actually think like the receiving group is has some upside. I'm interested in seeing what Daniels looks like under center more, all of that. But like when, you know, after Tunsil went down, I was just I was just so.
1:09:39And then this is, you know, this Eagles. I will say it's Jonathan Bernard. I know he's I don't know if it matters. Right. Frankly, I think he's out. Yeah. So he was activated off the pup list. Oh, really? But I think maybe not in this game. But in any case, I don't think it matters. I just think this defense is too strong, and it's too much of a mismatch on that side of the ball. So I'm going to take Philadelphia here. Yeah, I agree with you. I can't really imagine a way that they're going to be able to, like Jayden Daniels. It's hard for me to find a matchup that I like or an advantage or technique that they could use to attack this defense.
1:10:19So, yeah, I think it's pretty easy Eagles choice right there. Cardinals-Chargers, you. Yeah, all right. So you just mentioned offensive lines that could tank the season. So, yeah, I think we're looking at the interior of this Chargers offensive line. Like, that's the question. And a lot of these questions, I think, turn into kind of questions for the season, right, for some of these teams. is like, can you answer these questions? This will tell me a lot about your season. So I think that that's one of these two teams. The Chargers are the team with some expectations. And the question is how they're going to answer their interior offensive line issues.
1:10:58And then it's like the Cards is a good matchup for them. They really struggled down the stretch defensively. I think they gave up 40, 45, 26, 37, 37 the last five games and kept their defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis. They got rid of their entire coaching staff, but kept him because I guess they liked the way he closed the season out. So we'll see. Very injured defense, I would say. Yeah, we'll see what happens with that particular defense. But I think the real question, the interest point to me, because we're talking about the Chargers long-term, is will Mike McDaniel be able to solve the interior offensive line issues the way that he did in Miami?
1:11:44uh walter nolan the third he's the third right or is he just walter nolan yeah he's a third yeah uh the cardinals defensive tackle who was their first round draft pick last year who got injured and missed a lot of the season this is the game where it's like let's if there's a lot of hype around him he looked good in limited action let's you know preseason we got a glimpse of like let's see this is it because this is a very tasty matchup for him josh sweat's a good pass rusher to Cardinals defensive front. I think if, if Nolan takes the leap, I think that they could be decent. Um, but, and you know, but, but McDaniel does so much to mitigate that.
1:12:22So I don't know. I, I, I don't, I feel like there's going to be a game where that chargers interior offensive line really is a problem that curbs their ability to be explosive. I just don't think this is the game, even though Nolan is an exciting young player. By the way, Jeremiah Love, questionable for this one. Yeah, it's better than I thought, honestly. I mean, given how tough that injury looked. But yeah, I mean, I think this is actually might be a good challenge for the Chargers mentor-less defense. Yeah. This team is not without weapons or without threats, and it's a serviceable quarterback.
1:13:05I don't think that anyone thinks the Cardinals are going to be good, good, but they're not going to be a walkover. It's a good early season test to see how they're going to live post-mentor. Let's see, too, because Derwin James is such a tough matchup. You're still going to feed Trey McBride, but let's see what you got in Harrison Jr. Harrison Jr., there's no one. The Chargers DBs are like there's a size mismatch with Harrison Jr., but obviously he has been up and down. I'm going to take the Chargers here. Yeah, I'm with you, Chargers. all right i've got cowboys giants so big big big cowboys news tyler smith yeah was it four to six weeks let me make sure i have the timing on that right this was like i i mean i think let's see yeah four to six weeks with a thumb injury brutal that sucks
1:13:59sorry i was telling my daughter to stop making noise oh you were muted i was like what are you I muted it to tell her to stop making noise. My bad. You were talking about Tyler Smith. Damn, you got takes in here? Okay, about his thumb. Tyler Smith's thumb is hurt. He's out. He is the Cowboys' best offensive lineman. Now instantly the left side becomes a little bit questionable. There's matchups that this will be a very big deal against. Obviously, we'll see how long he's out. but I want to focus on New York which kind of would have been the same with Tyler Smith but now it's really a point of emphasis for me can you make New York stop the run and can you force them to tackle Dak historically when he goes against teams with very good pass rushes gets the ball out real fast it's like their best weapon against that I actually last year, two of his three fastest time to throw games were against the Giants.
1:15:03One was Wig-18 where he didn't play that much. And the other was Denver. That's just stylistically what he will do. And the first game, he went 38 for 52 for 361 yards, in case you forgot. They used a lot of play action. He went 11 for 12 for 110. He went nuclear on them. so the run thing is interesting because I want to see kind of the you know New York's new linebacker group and how they look against the run but I really think Dallas is going to get the ball out of Dak's hands pretty quick and trust their playmakers against the New York DBs Deontay Banks by the way starting over Paulson Debo I saw that do you see that I didn't notice that dream is live yeah there we go Cuba they might uh just took a second to learn it learn the ropes um um yeah i i think the tyler smith injury like it really makes me worry about the rushing attack honestly um more than anything is their ability to run the ball is going to be impacted by his his movement so like that's concerning but to your point like i'm less worried about dak he is like one of those he's like kind of the closest thing we have to like those old school like pocket managing i know what everyone is supposed to be peyton manning style quarterbacks get rid of it quickly when the time is right like i'm less worried about um the impact on the passing attack than i am about the impact on the rushing attack but yeah like this will will the giants be able to score um or not well the giants to your point will they be able to stop the run and be challenged that way and put up a fight that keeps them from putting their offense in a position that I don't think they want to be in.
1:16:49It's like they're down by two touchdowns early in the game and they just are in comeback mode the whole time. It's not the best scenario for Jackson Dart. Seems like Malik Nabors is going to play. Yeah. Really interested in seeing what he looks like, what his connection with Jackson Dart looks like. I actually think there's no one on the Cowboys defense I expect to be improved, but there's no one in that secondary who I like against league neighbors, league neighbors. When he was healthy, he was as good as anybody in football. He wasn't just like a number one or a good receiver. Like he was a real difference maker, like hall of fame level talent.
1:17:27So like, I, if you, if that guy shows up, we got a different conversation, right? Christian Parker's probably over indexing on stopping it regardless and, and trying to make them beat them with anyone else, you know? So that would be smart. Yeah, I'm sticking with Dallas. Even with the Tyler Smith injury, I just think this New York defense, as good as they are up front, I still have questions on the back end. And then Giants offense, you know, both unknowns a little bit here, the Giants offense and the Cowboys defense. And maybe this is just a little bit more betting on the young up and coming coach over Matt Neck and Rick Roman.
1:18:10No, I've been high in the Cowboys defensive additions as well. I just think Dak is kind of the differentiator here. Absolutely. All right, we're both on the Cowboys. Final game, Monday Night Football. A great one. Broncos, Chiefs. I'm going to Kansas City on Sunday. It's going to be hot, humid there. Nice. You can go first here. All right. I got the Chiefs O and the Broncos B. Yeah, versus the Broncos B, yeah. Yeah, I rewatched the game that they played against each other the last year, and it seemed like the Chiefs' strategy was to get these explosive big plays to attack the Broncos' man coverage, and they were fine with, like, trying to protect against a pass rush.
1:18:52But coming off of that knee injury for Mahomes, like, I'll be interested in how they approach this again as they went after the man coverage, and they won, but they could homes couldn't connect on those deep shots a number of times in that game they still ended up being like competitive in that game but it seemed pretty clear to me that the broncos were better or the better team so like i think that i'll be really interested um and well they're down jonathan cooper he's on the commissioner exempt list they still have bonito so the pass rush isn't going to be as much of a problem as it was before but i still think that's what it's going to come down to is uh i don't think they're going to have as much success running the ball as they want to with kendis walker and they have another injury right with simmons is um is out yeah they're their best offensive lineman who seemed like he was going to be when he was healthy or creed humphrey's their best offensive line uh well yeah i mean well yeah but he was their best tackle for sure yeah i i guess i i was getting ahead of myself i I thought that what he showed athleticism-wise was like he was going to be a real difference maker.
1:20:01It did look good. He had a very important spot. So, like, you're right. Creed Humphries is better. But I think that Simmons was going to be more important. But losing him, I think, matters a lot, especially when their biggest threat was the pass rush. So, like, how they address that position. And honestly, like, it gets down to if they're able to run the ball and run the ball effectively, of course. That takes pressure off of them. But still, to me, it's like what they're going to do on the edges against the pass rush. I really think they need to lean on Kenneth Walker as a pass catcher in this one.
1:20:34You know, and the Broncos last year were a little bit better at defending. They were better at defending throws to running backs, but linebackers still the area on it. I mean, it's true, though. It's true of a lot of teams. Sorry. It's clearly a team building thing around the NFL. so I and you know we talk about like quick pressure with bonito and and whatnot but I think yeah I I really think I expected it but I was play a lot of man coverage and while there's hope that like you said the explosives will hit better maybe there's you know understand a run game play action off of that maybe his connection with Thornton who got open like a lot last yeah But I do think you have to have other answers against man coverage, whether it's finding ways to create traffic for Xavier Worley or quick, you know, throws to Kenneth Walker on a backer.
1:21:27That's a mismatch you like. You know how Denver is going to approach this game, especially with Loma Holmes' limited mobility. So that to me, a lot of pressure on Andy Reid and Eric Biennium, I think, to game plan for that. All right. On the other side of the ball, it's funny. It's the opposite, right? because you think Denver is going to play a lot of man. I expect Kansas City to play a lot of zone against Bo Nix. So I wrote anticipating that, can Bo Nix, can you give Bo Nix lots of layered options? Can you force the Kansas City secondary to communicate? Can you attack the slot? So Jalen Waddell wasn't playing a lot in the preseason, but they had him in the slot a lot.
1:22:15And this is a game where I like that matchup, whether it's LeJaria Sneed or Chris Rollins-Rollins. I know he's a promising young player, but Jalen Waddle's a mismatch for either of those guys. You know, I think this is why Waddle is here. I'm optimistic about this Chiefs defense. I like them. I like a lot of the young players, but I just don't think they have anyone at this point who can handle him. so Waddle against zone coverage operating out of the slot to me is going to be how you're going to hit on explosives against this team yeah the
1:22:58Bo Nix in the past so they're they're switching play callers so like Sean Payne's not calling plays anymore so that might be something interesting that might play out in this game But just from remembering last season, it was Bo Nix was taking deep shots and throwing screens. And how good their offense or how effective their offense was was like determined by how accurate Bo Nix was on those deep shots. And I guess maybe the thought is that because it wasn't that they weren't there. They were there. He just would hit him sometimes and miss him sometimes. So this is one of the things that I was a little confused about for the Waddle trade is like, I don't think their inconsistency on the explosive plays was a result of like a lack of talent I know Waddle's great at that I thought it was a result of like inconsistent accuracy so maybe Waddle will run the run down the passes better or something so but generally I'm interested to see how they approach this game because what I noticed last year was my big criticism of Bo Nix all season long was like they seemed like they were trying to protect him by not having him attack intermediate but in the playoffs he went he got after it and he attacked the intermediate areas and I was like really impressed so like that's what I'm wondering is like will they go into this game with the regular season game plan or will they go into this game allowing him to attack that is also where hypothetically Waddle should thrive right that 10 to 20 yard range between the numbers he was not just good at separating gets you yards after the catch.
1:24:34We saw that in the preseason, right? Like, so, you know, like you said, like, this was something where it wasn't asked a lot of Bo Nix during the regular season, and then he hit on some of those throws. Now you have one of the best receivers in the NFL working that part of the field, getting you yards after the catch against a very young secondary with mismatches for talented you know corners on the outside and you know but waddle should be able to be a mismatch for them it's interesting because i never considered that the reason why they didn't do it was for lack of weapons that were comfortable i know i know you're not suggesting that but i'm saying like the quarterbacks you know right is it the receivers or is it the quarterback i just always assume that they just didn't trust him to attack that area but then what i saw that he did against the Bills in the playoffs, I was just like, oh, he can do this.
1:25:29So we'll see. Let's see it in this one. I mean, the Broncos' offensive line is still great and has a ton of continuity. He should have time, even though the Chiefs' defense should be improved. I mean, I'm taking the Broncos here. The Josh Simmons thing kind of pushed me over the edge. I was leaning them already, even without Jonathan Cooper. I think this defense is still too good. I just think the Chiefs pass catchers don't match up well with the Broncos DPs either. We ended up agreeing on way too many. No, we didn't. We disagreed on a few of them. I don't know. But I mean, I felt like down the stretch, there were some pretty obvious ones.
1:26:04Are there any like upsets? Like, are there any ones that you... You upsets? I know, but I guess I'm wondering, are there any ones that you... Yeah. You'd be surprised or you wouldn't be surprised that it went the other way? Patriots. Yeah. I absolutely think but I feel like that's also like a toss-up one I guess I was thinking like is there any chance that you think the culture the Ravens no yeah that's okay so like of the games that are like over like that we that they're like the the no-brainer ones that like we were like yeah obviously Colts are one to watch just because of all the question marks I think yeah commanders eagles no like there's nothing dallas giants there's nothing that could change my mind about those um everything else is pretty close though like these are all close like this is pretty i mean it's usually like that week one but like this is pretty this is pretty close close week oh how about um no i don't think the saints can beat the lions especially in detroit i don't see it yeah yeah yeah yeah we'll be dead wrong about one of these We're going to be shocked at the result of one of these games.
1:27:18Always. It's going to be fun. And then we're going to overreact. And then the next week, they're going to be the exact teams that we thought they were for the rest of the year. All right. Well, as I mentioned, next week I will be on Dominique's pod. Go check out the Dominique Foxworth podcast. We're every year pods. I will be back on Tuesday with Ben Solak. Again, you can go to youtube.com slash at MinaKimes or follow the show on Instagram. It's MinaKimesShow. I post, in addition to clips from the show, I post original content. There are reactions to things. So go check that out. Give us a follow.
1:27:49Before we go, Peyton and Eli are back with their schedule release video. Manning cast heist has title. Lots of celebrity cameos, including two people who I might put at my hypothetical dream dinner party, Larry David and Marshawn Lynch. Oh, that'd be great. Two great Americans. A conversation I'd like to see unfold. That's the Manning Cast Heist. Go check it out on YouTube. Check out the Manning Cast and check out our show on Tuesday. We'll be back with Ben Solak. Thank you as always to Dominique Foxworth and my friends at Omaha Productions who make this show. Kirsten Specki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Tustin.
1:28:28We're out.
1:28:40We'll see you next time.
From the publisher
Mina Kimes is joined by Domonique Foxworth to preview EVERY SINGLE GAME on the Week 1 slate. They go matchup by matchup and break down the keys to each game, including the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl rematch, 49ers-Rams in Australia, Broncos-Chiefs on Monday Night Football and everything in between.
Plus, Mina and Domonique make their picks for all 16 games.
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