NFC West Side Story! Previewing Every Week 11 Game

13 Nov 2025 · 1 h 38 min · 30 chapters

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In short

Week 11 NFC West and other key NFL matchups previewed; includes game keys, matchup breakdowns, and who the hosts would pick.

Guests

Ben Solak (NFL writer/analyst; helps preview games and argues matchup keys like pass rush vs QB pressure, run defense vulnerabilities, and scheme tendencies).

Key claims

  • Jets vs Patriots: Jets can make it “interesting” only if they pressure Drake May enough; Patriots offense is fragile without Rhamondre Stevenson and with Case/booty absences, while Patriots run defense is a strength.
  • Commanders vs Dolphins (Madrid): Dolphins should win because Washington is 31st in EPA per play/drive and gives up explosive passing; Dan Quinn taking over defensive play-calling won’t change the core matchup.
  • Panthers vs Falcons: Falcons can “dare Bryce Young” by stopping the run and muddying the middle; stakes are about whether Carolina can trust Young late-season.
  • Bills vs Buccaneers: Bills’ offense needs third-and-long efficiency; Tampa’s defense can force short/quick passing and limit deep shots, while Tampa’s run creativity (and Bucky Irving return) matters.
  • Packers vs Giants: Packers’ conservative run-heavy approach can work vs New York; key is solving tight-end/11-personnel usage and finding slot/rotation answers.
  • Bengals vs Steelers: Steelers’ plan is press/jam and generate pressure/turnovers to disrupt Jamar Chase; Steelers at home.
  • Bears vs Vikings: Both defenses are inconsistent deep; Chicago is explosive and can attack with play-action deep shots if Minnesota can’t stop run/outside zone and deep passes.

Notable examples

  • Patriots: May’s big throws came with defenders “sitting on his face.”
  • Commanders: examples of QBs with top passing games vs them include Goff, Darnold, and Penix.
  • Bills: Allen’s pressure response/sack-rate change is highlighted.
  • Buccaneers: motion/counter concepts and Irving/Gidecki impact are cited.
  • Bengals: Jets previously bracketed Chase and double-covered across the field.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Previewing Week 11 NFL Games

1:06 to 2:16

Discussing the exciting matchups for Week 11 in the NFL.

“In fact, it's so incredible that amidst all the Seahawks Rams craziness, I think like the fact that the lions and Eagles are playing has kind of been lost in this.”

Analyzing Patriots vs. Jets

2:16 to 4:06

In-depth analysis of the upcoming Patriots vs. Jets game.

Diving into the Commanders vs. Dolphins

4:06 to 5:30

Examining the strengths and weaknesses of both teams before their matchup.

“I'd be standing on that Bucs game for the Patriots and going, oh, cool.”

Discussing Panthers and Bryce Young

5:30 to 7:26

Analyzing Bryce Young's performance and the challenges faced by the Panthers.

“Tez came into the Combine like 157, Mina.”

Bryce Young's Future and Team Dynamics

7:26 to 14:00

Exploring the implications of Bryce Young's play on the Panthers' future.

“You want some commander's defensive stats?”

Evaluating Bryce Young's Performance

14:00 to 17:48

Explore the challenges and statistics surrounding Bryce Young's play this season.

“And if he plays like he has the last few weeks, there's no doubt in my mind, they need to seriously consider moving on or bringing in competition.”

Analyzing the Panthers vs. Falcons Matchup

17:48 to 19:06

Discuss the implications of the Panthers and Falcons game for both teams' seasons.

“I think I, the Falcons run defense to me is it's not at a point where like, Oh, you know, we don't respect the past.”

Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

19:06 to 22:58

Deep dive into the upcoming game between the Bills and Buccaneers focusing on key matchups and strategies.

“Because we think that we can press your wide receivers off the line of scrimmage.”

Bills Offensive Challenges and Solutions

22:58 to 28:01

Analyze the issues the Bills offense faces and potential solutions for improvement.

Analyzing the Bucs Offense and Bills Defense

28:01 to 29:28

Discussion on the strengths and weaknesses of the Bucs and Bills, including player performances.

“The creativity is good, and that's where Grisard and this Bucs offense has always been at their strongest.”
Show all 30 chapters

Previewing Texans vs Titans

29:28 to 30:21

Exploring the key players and strategies for the upcoming Texans-Titans matchup.

“I must, I realized if he's listening to the whole preview, it sounded like Tampa, but I, I, I've just been thinking about Alan and that chiefs game.”

Evaluating Packers vs Giants Matchup

30:21 to 32:46

A look at the Packers' offensive struggles and their chances against the Giants' defense.

“Davis Mills is prepping to start week 11 against the Titans.”

Bengals vs Steelers Game Plan

32:46 to 36:20

Discussion on how the Steelers can improve their game plan against the Bengals this time.

“Purely, purely on the strength of that pass rush.”

Bears vs Vikings Breakdown

36:20 to 42:00

Analyzing the key matchups and potential strategies for the Bears and Vikings game.

“because you walked out against the Bengals.”

Analyzing Caleb Williams' Performance

42:00 to 47:30

Discussion on Caleb Williams' game performance and his potential impact.

“The one he threw rolling to his right, to Zaccheaus, to the corner of the end zone, was just like nasty, nasty ball.”

Previewing Chargers vs. Jaguars

48:56 to 56:00

In-depth analysis of the upcoming Chargers vs. Jaguars game.

“I'll do that one first, before we get to that one.”

Seattle's Defensive Strategy Against the Rams

56:00 to 1:02:40

Explore Seattle's defensive adjustments and how they match up against the Rams' offense.

“And he's going to be able to cut off those, those lines.”

Rams' Defensive Improvements and Key Players

1:02:40 to 1:10:00

Discuss the notable improvements in the Rams' defense and key players impacting the game.

“To me, this is much what Seattle's been so far this season is supposed to work against this Rams defense.”

Analyzing Coaching Impact

1:10:00 to 1:10:40

Explore the significant coaching strategies that affect team performance.

“They gave up some, but for him to come in and immediately have the impact that he has, outstanding stuff.”

Injury Updates and Team Dynamics

1:10:40 to 1:12:40

Learn about the latest injury updates affecting team strategies.

“we spent so much time in that game uh okay uh you have niners cardinals uh it is no mervyn harrison who Mariners and junior who has appendicitis.”

Niners vs. Cardinals Game Breakdown

1:12:40 to 1:14:00

A detailed analysis of the upcoming Niners vs. Cardinals game strategies.

“This is going to be a game where you have to be able to find creative ways to use him.”

Ravens vs. Browns Preview

1:14:00 to 1:17:40

Insights into the Ravens' defensive strategies against the Browns.

“Lamar Jackson didn't practice today, Wednesday, but he is expected to return Thursday.”

Ravens vs. Browns Preview

1:17:43 to 1:18:06

Insights into the Ravens' defensive strategies against the Browns.

“That's the energy State Farm brings to insurance.”

Chiefs vs. Broncos Matchup Analysis

1:18:06 to 1:23:50

An in-depth look at the Chiefs and Broncos, focusing on key players and strategies.

“We've got three more games, two good ones.”

Final Thoughts on Denver's Performance

1:23:50 to 1:24:00

Discussion about Denver's performance and future potential against the Chiefs.

“It's the sort of receiver that McDuffie struggles with six inches on McDuffie.”

Quarterback Performance Analysis

1:24:00 to 1:25:15

Discussion on quarterback performance metrics and game strategy against the Chiefs.

Eagles vs. Lions Preview

1:25:15 to 1:27:19

In-depth analysis of the upcoming Eagles vs. Lions game, focusing on offensive and defensive strategies.

“The Lions defense, if you put big bodies in the field, we'll match it with a linebacker.”

Defensive Tactics and Matchups

1:27:19 to 1:33:18

Exploration of defensive strategies and player matchups that will impact the game outcomes.

“You think about Goddard being a potential answer for them over the middle of the field.”

Cowboys vs. Raiders Matchup

1:33:18 to 1:35:28

Analysis of the Cowboys and Raiders game, focusing on pressures and key players.

“Every Lions game now comes down to can you find, we talked about the guards, can you find a way to go after the guards?”

Transition to Break

1:38:58 to 1:39:10

Brief mention of a break before returning to the show.

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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Ben Solak:Are all batteries the same? That's like asking if all soccer players are the same. Take Messi, the most decorated player ever. Is there any other player who has achieved that? No, just him. Now take Duracell. Is there any other battery with Power Boost ingredients inside? No, just Duracell. Remember, goats only trust goats because they're built different. And Messi only trusts Duracell.

0:33Ben Solak:welcome back to the minikime show featuring lenny only nfl podcast one of the hosts thinks yak is what happens when he breaks into the halloween candy that's lenny i mean it times uh i'm trying to decide if this is too gross i'm gonna say it anyways i just took him for a walk and i it resulted in me seeing a halloween candy wrapper on the sidewalk yep that's what yeah that's every dog owner that's that's you know we're all used to at that point you know i appreciate the wrapper I guess. Uh, that's Ben Solak who is here to help me preview an incredible slate of games. Woo week 11 week 11 showed up.

1:09Ben Solak:In fact, it's so incredible that amidst all the Seahawks Rams craziness, I think like the fact that the lions and Eagles are playing has kind of been lost in this. Um, I mean, there's, there's a few really, really good games. Buffalo Tampa is another one. we pick all the games we preview all the games i actually i need this pod to decide who i'm picking because some of them i've gone back and forth like 20 times i have three games i'm open on which i've like never walked into a pod with more than one before i'm i it's a it's it's it's a very very hard survivor week which is the best thing i can say about an nfl slate like everything feels tight it's cool one of those games i'm sure is patriots jets right on thursday night football we might be looking at a 14 point spread by kickoff this is getting nasty 13 now are the pets or the jets that bad it's the jets um it's funny because i do these top fives and the pets haven't been in the top five and i watched them against the bucks and i thought oh i want to put them in the top five maybe this week i'll get the case and then i saw they're playing the jets and that's not really going to help me with information um so this is my game so every week we go over all the games for those who don't know and one of us picks a key or both of us pick keys for the good games this one is just me um i wrote can the jets pressure drake may enough to make it interesting that's the best thing i could come up with here um for a couple reasons one of which was the jets in their glorious win over the cleveland browns actually pressured them like crazy we'll get to the browns ravens games and the browns offensive line and stated the offense there but will mcdonald went like nuts and having a four sack game in front of miles garrett has to be a great feeling yeah he's on the other sideline you're doing that that's a good feeling yeah i know it's like when nino like tumbles on his own and looks at me and i'm like oh you think that i'm the master tumbler because i've done it once in front of you um weird analogy that's my child um but it's also you know like so watching drake may against tampa he was predictably incredible but he was under pressure a lot and some of that has to do with i think tampa they've got like legitimately good addressers and they also have really cool pressures and weird designs and top sorry table was like threw the kitchen sink at him in that game both in the front of the bag was a really really good table's game i thought um but my point is is patriots offensive line as much as we've praised them this year as terms of being an improved unit they're still not great and may is making a lot of these plays under pressure and he's been awesome under pressure but it's still not ideal for your quarterback i i posted screenshots the three biggest throws he made in that game were all with either like diaby or levante david basically sitting on his face so anyways so for me to make this interesting and muck it up and obviously that's what new york has to do it really just starts with the pass rush yeah i i really do like new york's defensive ability to make this game trickier and and uglier than you might expect otherwise uh pages have confirmed there's no romandre stevenson for this game there's no case on booty for this game those are two of their best like consistent answer players i know booty's been used downfield but like the 101 on the outside the back shoulder the comeback has been like a third and five third and six answer for them and stevenson's been the engine for a different team like for a you know 500 win team that was kind of good, kind of bad.

4:35I'd be standing on that Bucs game for the Patriots and going, oh, cool. Three explosives in a 24 point outing. Like you had a 71 yard touchdown, a 62 yard touchdown, a 55 yard touchdown. I think it was like, I know that model. That's not serious. You can't do that every single week. The Patriots are eight and two. They've earned the benefit of the doubt, but without Stevenson, without booty with some of the injuries. And then, like you say, the offensive line being more of a average unit, which is a big improvement on last year, but not necessarily, you know, great overall. This is a bit more fragile of an offense right now than we've seen in the past and then you'd like to be bringing into a thursday night divisional game which tend to be very very close the thing is like the patriots run defense is the strength their defense and the jets if they can't run it can't move the ball so it's kind of null and void but still pat's offense i agree like with your top five power rankings excuse me top five power rankings comment it's a little bit hard to get them over that line right now they're very close

5:23Ben Solak:they're very close but that yeah that i uh obviously picking them to win this game you know for the we the Jets offense doesn't need to be discussed uh but uh again really quickly though because I feel like I always talk about Drake May and the Patriots offense I've spent very little time talking about the Patriots defense the run defense is exceptional um I think they have good DBs you know they've had some ups and downs but I still feel pretty confident in that unit if you were an offense just setting aside the Jets what would you attack if you were facing this Patriots defense yeah so I think uh Carlton Davis is is the corner two and I think he's a solid corner too he is get is the age is showing up a little bit right and and they play a decent amount of man coverage and so before last week somebody got him good and i was like oh i a few times it was a falcons yeah there's a few plays and i was like so tez johnson who by the way new number one favorite nfl player in the world is tez johnson this is the first good player who's been my weight in nfl history i'm thrilled about the tez johnson breakout i'm not including tank dell like this is better than tank dell uh smith that much heavier than tez johnson he's Yeah, he's a good 10, 15 pounds heavier than me and Tez Johnson, according to NFL Combine measurements.

6:29Tez came into the Combine like 157, Mina. Like, we're talking like this is an average man. Not an average NFL, like an average man.

6:36Ben Solak:He weighed in at 154 at the Combine. Wow. Yes. We are a level below Devontae Smith density. Yeah. Not density, but weight in Tez Johnson. That's really more like that. Because Devontae Smith's so tall, though. He looks skinnier. But they both have the same thing, which Tankdale did not have, which is that, like, contact hits them, and they look like they're in a car crash, and then they just bounce off the ground and jog back to the huddle in preposterous ways. Regardless, I think you're not like Christian Gonzalez is not having the same season he had last year. I think Carlton Davis is also taking a little bit of a step back.

7:04Gonzalez is coming off the very long hamstring injury in training camp.

7:07Ben Solak:He's still good. Yeah, he's still good. Marcus Jones is really good. So some of the outside guys are gettable in isolation. And then the linebacker core to me is the big issue. Don't run on him. That was my note for Tampa. The Patriots have played. we've always talked about how easy the schedule is if you look particularly at the offenses they've played they've played the five worst offenses literally 28 29 30 31 32 by epa per play and by uh points per drive in the league this year like this defense is good it is also not as good as it has been made out to be and that's because of strength of schedule we talked about whether or not like drake may would have an mvp like a signature game so he's got like island he has the giants at night and but as far as like a true test uh i'm looking at the ravens near the end of the year learn a lot about this defense i think in that game as well um okay let's move on you have the privilege of picking a key for commander's dolphins in madrid too as well so that another 9 30 am game did not know that really madrid i'll be very honest i took a pretty large position on on dolphins minus two and a half early in the week because i was like oh dolphins home game again and like you know two is much better in miami and then people point out to me like no this game is in Spain.

8:17I was like, oh, okay. I have no idea. Yes. So the game's in Madrid. You want some commander's defensive stats? You want some fun stuff? Three of the best five passing games this season by first down plus touchdown rate have all been against the commander's defense. It was Jared Goff and Sam Darnold, which okay, fine. And also Michael Penix at one of the five best games against this commander's defense since week six, in which the commanders have played a stretch of quite good offenses but still they are 31st in epa per play and epa per drive and downset conversion rate and points per drive only kept out of 32nd by our cincinnati bangles thank you very much uh dan quinn announced this week he's taking over defensive play calling from joe witt jr i do not think that that is going to have an effect on anything i know that commando fans i'd like to vilify with jr to this point in the season but i tell you i watched that defense it looks just like dan quinn defense to me he's not like witt's doing something different than quinn wants to have done there and so i don't anticipate a big change the key for this game is going to be speed and space for the dolphins offense against the commander or the commander's defense commanders are once again 31st and yak giving up over expectation yak per reception in the league only kept out of 32nd because of our cincinnati bangles they are giving up the fifth highest uh explosive pass rate the commanders are through a team's first 10 games in the season like this is a game for two to get the ball out fast to waddle an a-shand on the move and then you challenge this this extremely banged up and beleaguered commanders back seven to make tackles they haven't done to this point in the season they're probably not going to start now

9:45Ben Solak:dan quinn taking over defense after they play lions is almost funny as funny as dan campbell taking over offense the week they play the commanders head coaches know how to time these decisions uh yeah i mean like the commanders i think biggest they have many weaknesses but they just cannot stop runs off tackle and this kid devon day chan not a kid but he's pretty damn good at that so uh i do not love this matchup for washington at all i definitely lean miami really quickly on the subject of miami though um so the three and seven this is not a playoff conversation i'm not crazy but you got the commanders the saints the jets the steelers the bangles bucks pats to end mike mcdaniel job saving streak here potentially those final two games being hard is gonna be tough because if they get their the teeth kicked in by the bucks and the pats that could be hard finishing bad but there's a lot of potential wins on the schedule they were i want to say they were two and six last year and they won three in a row they got to five and six they were kind of like oh playoff push and then they had that they had that cold game against the packers and it was just it was it was no good i will say mike has for the second year in a row impressed me in terms of what he has changed on the offense right they're getting more outbreaking throws to us uh rolling out and booting and throwing on the move a little bit more and they're relocating the pocket better i think the running game wise that the investments some of the young players the offensive line have gotten their feet under them jonas seven Anaya is playing a little better than he was.

11:05Patrick Paul is playing good football right now. And so, again, I think, like, Mike does good stuff on Sundays. A lot of it is, like, the Monday to Saturday issue, and sometimes the styles make fights issues. But they are and have always been very, very good against bad defenses, right? Like, they played the Ravens and the Browns in the last four weeks, got absolutely decimated. But in the middle, they played, you know, they played the Falcons, right? And they're playing the Commanders. They had the game against the Chargers, right, at 2.45 points per drive. So like they can play the bad defenses and beat them.

11:36And they're going to do that again this week.

11:38Ben Solak:Some really creative run designs against Buffalo that really just completely ruined the days of many bills, defensive players. Okay. So we're both on Miami. I have Panthers Falcons. The good games are all backloaded outside of Tampa. And so, but yeah, yeah. Actually we're doing two of the morning ones at least. I want to talk about Bryce young. it's time to talk about Bryce Young because I haven't talked about him talked about the Falcons a lot and the Panthers I've made it a point to not pick Panthers games and to just stay away from them they are every year there's like a radioactive team for me radioactive in sense of like I just do not feel like on any given Sunday I know if this team and this has been the Carolina Panthers for me um you just never know what you're going to get from them right week to week but one thing that has been consistent over the last month and a half or so is if you if you stop the run Bryce Young is not able to beat you and going back and and watching some of his struggles this past week against New Orleans and there was he was really it was a really rough watch um because you know New Orleans played single high almost the entire game right and he He was either not seeing the middle of the field or he was short-arming it to the outside.

13:05Ben Solak:He struggled with pressure a lot. And it just felt like weeks one through two Bryce Young of last year before the comeback. I think the thing that jumped out to me is the paradox is this. He, because of his size, does not see the middle of the field well if you can muddy things up. but because his arm isn't super strong he is not particularly accurate accurate throwing outside the numbers deep so it's like a cool what you need is you need to create throwing lanes for him over the middle field and then it works he's accurate he can but if you could take that away it's really tough and i think atlanta will be very aware of that and will you know execute a similar game plan.

13:53Ben Solak:And I'm just not, I think this is a really, really important game for him because we're, as we head into the back end of the season, this to me is going to set up the stakes for what happens this off season. And if he plays like he has the last few weeks, there's no doubt in my mind, they need to seriously consider moving on or bringing in competition. Yeah. So this is a team that clearly wins in spite of their quarterback. Right. And, and this is, I think a difficult thing to talk about because last year it was very easy to author a narrative that they were not winning in spite of their quarterback because bryce young had like three or four hero throws right he had that eagles game that could have been should have been game-winning drive xavier legate in the end zone he had the chiefs game i dispute that there were a game i actually thought he was good for it wasn't just a few hero throws in the eagles game like there were games last year where he was a much better quarterback than the guy we're seeing so i i agree with that and i but my the The thing was like last year he was, if I'm remembering the numbers correctly, he was 31st and on target rate and fourth in completion percentage over expectation, which is just that for the way that he was playing, the scales were so dramatically tipped towards when he gets a catchable ball out there into a tight window down the field against pressure.

15:00These are just being caught at a disproportionate rate. And that was a credit. And there were drops, right? There was a get drop and there was a Coker drop. So if you wanted to, like you could get there on the offense is failing him and he's taking a step, so on and so forth. I think that was a reasonable thing to be like, all right, is he turning this corner? Is this coming around? But because they had that game against the Eagles who went on to win the NFC and that game against the Chiefs who went on to win the AFC, like best performances against top competition in games, fourth quarter, it just got magnified.

15:25It got ballooned to the point of like, man, Bryce Young is here. And that just like, to me, it wasn't borne out in filmer numbers last year. You come back to this year. First, you just the completion percentage of our expectation has plummeted, right? Which is just kind of a regression thing. That's what you expect. It should go back down to zero. and then if you remember in the beginning of last season they wanted to throw over the middle of the field more it wasn't working well he had the benching he comes back they're kind of you know radioactive middle of the field they're not going to touch it this year they walk out they're not really throwing middle of the field and they're trying to reintroduce it they're they're putting more routes there jaylen coker's come back they're trying to get him activated there and it's just every time they try to to drop it back into the offense you get tipped balls you get interceptions right the demario davis could have been should have been picked it was called back dropping in the passer and then you have to wheel it back and you have to start throwing just timing routes to the outside again and that's just not a way to live in the NFL it's it's it's too simple it's not deep enough of a passing game you're not hitting too much enough areas of the field to really scare good defenses the Falcons just got ran through by Jonathan Taylor but they were and this is not to

16:25Ben Solak:take away from Taylor but they were you know they were they were really take trying to take away the pass in that game that's not going to be the case here I think I think they're going to watch the Saints tape and they're going to I would take a similar approach and say dare Bryce basically to beat you and this is it man like I do feel like this is kind of like potential it's for Atlanta too I mean this is huge obviously because if you don't I feel like the playoffs are just going to really fall out of um they're going to lose their grasp on even hoping for it but with for me the stakes for Carolina aren't the playoffs this is not a playoff team to me this is just Bryce Young these are the stakes here you gotta to even have a chance next year um i'm taking atlanta even though you know i i guess i don't like picking panthers games uh atlanta's another team that i like don't i i think with atlanta it often comes down to offense and styles make fights because they have such a specific style and if you can take away a couple of things that they do well it's they really really struggle as you've seen but um it's funny because like it's like when do we have the conversation about panics.

17:30Ben Solak:We'll put that for off for another day. Today's, today's Bryce day. He's only started 11 games. I wrote about him this week and I was kind of ready to be like, all right, here we go. And I was like, Oh, that's right. Like you started three games last season. Like you're not even through your first full, you know, year of worth of games. I, I very much like the Panthers win this game. I really do. I think I, the Falcons run defense to me is it's not at a point where like, Oh, you know, we don't respect the past. Let's be able to put the bodies up there and we'll solve with math. They're, they're just too light.

17:57They are just too small. This is the worst run defense in the league when you put multiple tight ends on the field, which is something that the Panthers do a lot of. Panthers have also one of the bigger offensive lines in the league. They're very, very good moving you off the line of scrimmage. Like it is just the hope is that potentially the Falcons are going to get some help back defensively, but we haven't gotten Wednesday practice reports from them yet. So we don't know if Divine Diablo is going to return to this game or not. It is. It's just a weight class thing where if the Panthers get a lead in this game, they're going to be able to control the clock.

18:24Panics, I do not think is good against a Joe Evero style defenses. it's a blanket thing. You got to throw underneath. You got to dink and dunk. You got to be accurate. It's just not his game. Like I, this is, this is the biggest game where he Morris is 10 years without the three and six. They got embarrassed by the scene 30 to nothing. Last time they played, like you got to step up for this one. And I'm just worried because stylistically, I don't think they match well at all.

18:42Ben Solak:You think that anyone can stop Drake London on this defense? JC Horn, baby. I mean, JC Horn, the numbers were great and the film was great. And then Chris Olave, I call it like a 70 yard catcher on touchdown on him. He fell down. He tripped. JC's having a nice season. I believe. all right well good we're split i like it it's good that we're not on the same page in every game uh bucks bills is this is the hardest game for me to pick actually i have really struggled with this one because there's a lot of things i like about tampa from a match-up perspective in this game but it's so hard for me to imagine the bills putting up back-to-back stinkers um you go first i'm on buffalo so i'll get to what i i think uh i i have a feeling i know what direction you're going with tampa but let me let me hear it have you looked at the line real quick for this game the spread i'm looking at it right now bills are five and a half that's crazy we go straight up here but that's tampa oh my god five and a half that's crazy which i i also i took a lot of surprise there have been people who have taken bucks bets lines has not moved which is very very odd regardless uh key to this game for me if you're the buccaneers is you got to be able to get uh the bills into third and long right and we the the bills are at their best when they can run the football and then josh can win in the quick passing game and in the screen game and they can throw to these tight ends this year on third and seven plus mana josh allen has a this he's 21st in success rate he's 18th and first down in touchdown rate he is leading the league in time to throw he has a sack rate of 21 it is 39 of 41 quarterbacks his sack rate last year on third and long he had a sack rate of four percent he has quintupled his sack rate from last season and a big part of the reason why is because the bills are getting blitzed into oblivion on these passing downs they've certainly played falcons and buccaneers and some defenses are going to skew those numbers a little bit, but it's 50 % of the time on these long and late downs.

20:24Why is that happening? Because we think that we can press your wide receivers off the line of scrimmage. We're not too worried about it, right? The Bills don't right now have the ability to open receivers well down the field schematically. A lot of their, you know, okay, we're going to send a guy in motion to throw it to him and we're going to like, you know, you know, have them offline of scrimmage and run a little rubber out. It all happens within the line of scrimmage or back, right? It's these Ty Johnson throws behind the line of scrimmage and these Khalil Shakir throws behind the line a scrimmage and it's just okay like you're going to get us with a few of those but eventually we're going to get a tackle you the the bills put five in the concept more than any other team in football right now so you're always protecting with five and if i send blitzes i get free runners and alan's just not breaking sacks the way that he has in previous seasons so this is a on an early down game excuse me on the early downs in this game i want to be run blitzing the bucks you know gave up two huge explosive runs to trevin henderson if you look at the underlying numbers like henderson had a 28 success rate running the football i don't think the bucks run defense is broken i think they busted a couple of plays so i expect them to still have a good day against james cook get the bills consistently need his third and six pluses and then you go ahead and you send the rush you you're worried about the run defense a little bit i was watching the

21:30Ben Solak:henderson runs i think you can get them off tackle and on sweeps and and such i don't think you could run up the gut which is buffalo was very good at i just think tampa's too good against that but um you know when they got henderson out onto the perimeter um he was able to use the speed i think James Cook's capable of that, but that's not my key here. I just wrote Josh Allen played the fastest you have all season. This is, you know, Allen's three fastest time to throw the seasons. Two of them are his best games in EPA per dropback. One was the Chiefs. One was the first game against the Dolphins.

22:05Ben Solak:We, I feel like a broken record here, but we know with Tampa, you want to attack the backers. I'd love to see Cook, Shakir get activated, not on short throws to the perimeter, but short throws over the middle of the field. To your point about all the, what's going on with the screens and whatnot, where they're just not popping off. And I think Tampa's, they have good tackling corners and whatnot. So you really need to play this. This needs to be his most efficient game as a pro. They can't, the Bucks have an exceptional defense against deep passes. is this is all about just peppering them peppering them peppering them and then i think they'll be able to soften things up on the edges in the run game but for me it's really about that short passing game and alan playing on time yeah i i think a lot of bills fans are very warranted in their frustration with the designs of the offense and with the personnel moves in the offense i think it is extremely reasonable to be like how is this the the peak of our wide receiver room this is not as good as good as it could be i think it's also very reasonable to say okay this is our wide receiver room how can we not get Khalil Shakir open down the field right how are we not finding you know more creative ways to use Keon Coleman in these tight ends like I think there's legitimate complaints in both those categories I think it is also true it's hard to say these things but it's also true Allen is just not playing well in the offense he's being given with the wide receivers he's been given he's the third on the list for blame he shouldn't be put in these spots but like he kind of is existing right now in in in peaceful protests of the offense like all these Keon Coleman late inaccurate targets are kind of a little bit of like a middle thing where it's like exactly like he's just like i'm not gonna take a sack here so screw you i'm just gonna make the incompletion like there's there's he's clearly a little bit pissed off what would you say this is an i think a conversation to have is the biggest difference with josh allen this year versus last year because it's not like they had a good this is often brought up they didn't have a group of world beaters this was the foundation of his mvp case was that he was throw into these scrubs uh i did uh joke about this on nfl live because they were like it was basically the same and i was like did we not see matt collins just went on a go ball downfield low-key they could use matt collins who's like one of those i want to do an all pro we do like we do you and i do like an underrated team i want to do like an all pro of like the sneaky most valuable role players in the nfl and matt collins is absolutely on that list for me but anyways that's a side they do get josh palmer back in this game uh but but to go back to my question like what do you think is the biggest difference when you you mentioned the sacks that's huge yeah thing with lamar too hilariously because the mvp stuff right to me it is 100 pressure sack rate right over the quarterback seasons over the last two years last year josh allen took a sack on 8.8 percent of his pressured dropbacks not all dropbacks pressure dropbacks of 77 seasons over the last two years that is the best he was the number one guy at turning a pressure into a at least pass attempt or scramble this year he's at 20 he's at 22 percent right and this that's like you know a little bit above league average or excuse me a little bit below the average for a number now but that change going from the absolute best in the world to league average is astronomical when you're again joe brady's trying to run this five out in the concept uh offense which is just the the entire idea there is my quarterback has an elite pressure response has an elite blitz response is an elite process so i'm gonna put five out and he's gonna you know joe burrow make everybody wrong and last year josh when he wasn't able to do that in structure on time throwing it was just so good at breaking a tackle and for whatever reason right the marriage you know like people always say like all right these stars get married and then they get way worse like that's like a big online theory whatever the reason is he's just not playing nearly as well against the unblocked pressures moving in space breaking tackles as he used to be his air yards per attempt dude on on some of these out of structure throws like when he's outside of the pocket he's like 45 yards down the field right he hasn't scrambled nearly as much uh on the third and longs he has hasn't seasons passed.

25:53Like again, which feels to me a little bit like I, Oh, you know, I guess I got to throw this to Tyrell shavers now. Like it feels a little bit indignant. But that to me is the biggest difference is, is the performance under pressure.

26:02Ben Solak:Yeah. The pressure it's like, I said, it is funny because to a lesser degree, it is the same thing with Lamar. I feel like watching him this year, but to a lesser degree, but the Ravens also will keep bodies and they did their, they've got some interest. They're dead last in five in the concept, right? It's completely the other direction is that they get drop eight and they have three routes out there and there's nothing to do. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. I do want to add something on the Bucs offense, which I think is going to be important in this game. Because what I always say about the Bills is, can they run?

26:28Ben Solak:Can you run on them? Okay, cool. That's how the game's going to go. So the running is hard. Running on them, though, is an interesting one because Tampa's rushing attack through much of the season was not good. But there's a couple of things I wanted to know. One is Bucky Irving is back at practice. Hey! And the other is, this was my other thing. I thought the Patriots game, nobody would be able to run. And both sides ran the ball. I mean, so the pass just popped off a couple of explosives with Henderson, but the Bucks actually, you're talking about success rate. Rashad White had a 50 % success rate.

26:58Ben Solak:Sean Tucker had a 56 % success rate. And going and watching some of their runs, they did some cool stuff. Lots of motion to get to their counter runs. They put two backs on the field, which is something they did a lot with Irving and White. And you go up against a Bills defense that just got terrorized with motion in the run game. I think Tampa has the ability in this one to get to a lot of those same types of runs that have given Buffalo trouble. You throw Bucky Irving back into the mix, then you start to get worried. Because if Tampa wasn't able to run the ball, I think I would feel good about this Bills defense in coverage.

27:34Ben Solak:But if they can run it the way they did last week, that's concerning to me if I'm a Bills fan. Yeah, and the return of Luke Gidecki to me at right tackle is a big part of that in terms of surprising success against the Patriots for the Bucs. Gidecki is just to me the most underrated offensive lineman, if not the most underrated player in football. like legitimate case, top five, right tackling football, top 10 for sure. Just never gets talked about like that. You can see how much that matters when they want to pull guys and you have him going down and actually creating displacement and moving upfield.

28:01The creativity is good, and that's where Grisard and this Bucs offense has always been at their strongest. You need a player like Bucky who also matches that creativity to really unlock it. And that's why the Rashad White games were very grindy and three yards of pop, and all of a sudden you get Sean Tucker back there and he's just kind of like hair on fire going wherever those daylight making guys miss so i like the juice with with involving tucker more and doing a little more 50 50 split if bucky's back it is a very very very big deal because of the the space ability right this this bill's linebacker room man like they've they played a heroic game against the chiefs they were incredible every other game in this season dolphins game is some of the worst tape you'll

28:41Ben Solak:see i as a lifelong matt milano fan i had to put on the pretend i don't know there was a play where it wasn't cedric wilson pop poyer it wasn't that one i posted the poor one because they were all pointing at each other there was one i can't remember who popped milano it was one of the dolphin skill players we just sent him spinning and i was like oh this is like i can't watch this not my goat not going down like this it was it was a tough watch the safety oh my god anyways sorry and the ddl without ed oliver is just getting their ass okay it's just it's ugly i say all that And I still want to take Buffalo because it's in Buffalo.

29:17Ben Solak:And I just can't, I feel like Alan could have a chiefs like performance against this defense where he's just hyper efficient. He gets us together. I'm going to, I must, I realized if he's listening to the whole preview, it sounded like Tampa, but I, I, I've just been thinking about Alan and that chiefs game. And I think that's the formula for them. And I think he can do it against this team. Yeah. I I'm like 50, 50 on winner. Right. I was one of the games I walked in. It wasn't Tampa. I would take Tampa. I definitely, I like the Bucs potential to cover in this game. You know, Baker has been very inconsistent.

29:50He was super hot to start the year and there's MVP talk. Like in general, it's been, you know, high variance stuff. And this Bill's passing defense for everything that's difficult with it now can still make you, you know, be a little bit more inching your way down the field. You have to be really good on third down against them. I'll take, I'll take Tampa to be, to be different. I think this is very, it's going to be a very, very close game. A lot of it depends on, I have two quarterbacks right now who are very Jekyll and Heidi. And who do I get Jekyll and who do I get high from?

30:14Ben Solak:Yeah. All right. Texans Titans, Davis Mills starting again, or at least I saw a quote today. Davis Mills is prepping to start week 11 against the Titans. Yeah. That's you. Oh, sorry. Key to this game is if Jeffrey Simmons gets back into the football game, right? Jeffrey Simmons has been out for the last three weeks at defensive tackle. I know this because he quote tweeted Seth Walder this week. Seth put out one of his little like, you know, double team rate pass rush rate and like jefferson's like by a mile and better than everybody and simmons quote tweeted was like i'm ready to get back baby i've been out for three weeks get me in there he's fired up about the charts um scatterplot yeah but in all seriousness uh simmons and tavondre sweat who last year were like one of the best defense attack to us in football have only shared the feel for two games this season tavondre sweat got injured in week one and the week he came back week seven was the week that simmons went down it if you can get a strong long defensive front and win the defensive trenches against these Texans you can put Davis Mills to a lot of third and longs last week Mina the Texans had a 65 success rate running the football I know I did I was like I don't want to watch this game because Davis Mills I know that's sorry yeah good every game and I was like you know what I saw that Roger say story I was like let me pop on some of these there's a lot of like duo like I was they were moving bodies it was crazy to see the uh their previous best success rate on the ground in a game this year was 40 it's 65 against the Jags Jags probably one of the worst defense of tackle rooms in football right now Titans if they're both available are one of the best you can get this game to be within one score get it to be a little bit muddy uh in the event you have both those players we don't yet know Simmons uh practice status going forward is worth noting uh Cam Ward's absolute worst game of the season was against the Texans he held the football for the longest at a completion percentage over expectation of like negative 15 uh cam's gotta get the ball out fast against this team much faster than he did the first go around i just don't know if that's he's got that club in his golf bag just yet in terms of his development how much you trust his offensive line and so even if you get the really good defensive performance the tackles are back and you're stopping i'm gonna get in short fields and davis mills is struggling this still might be six to nothing in the fourth quarter because your offense isn't cashing in your checks that was the other thing about the texas so then i was like what the hell happened with the comeback so then i was like all right i end up watching I mean, we'll get to the Jags side of it, but oh my God, Tino Hunter.

32:42Ben Solak:Good Lord. I'm not Houston here. Purely, purely on the strength of that pass rush. That defense is so sick. Houston wins, but Texans had a very emotional fourth quarter come from behind victory. Now they're in the divisional spot on the road. This is a little live. It's a little live. Not this defense against this offense. Okay, I'll do Packers-Giants here. We got some news. Mike Kafka, it was the interim head coach is starting James Winston, which is good news for the media times dynasty team, which has Jackson dart, but also James Winston miraculously. It's like the deepest weirdest league ever, by the way.

33:21Ben Solak:I'm not going to focus on that. I'm going to focus on the Packers offense, which has been the subject of much conversation and consternation this week for very obvious reasons. so the the Packers offensive line versus the Giants pass rush is a mismatch in pass pro but they should be able to run on them because everybody can run on this New York defensive front um so you know I we've been talking a lot about like Matt LaFleur and how the offense needs to change and like it's too conservative and he runs the ball too much but I actually think like that it's all gonna work on this team so it's like everything I said about the Packers offense and the way they need to evolve and how they need to attack downfield and they got to accept they're not going to be a running team doesn't really apply to this defense because i think they can actually i think that conservatism and that the willingness to run the football actually worked fine against new york yeah it's a classic get right spot get the win josh jacob says 124 yards on 23 carries matt floor goes to the podium like oh i thought oh what now like no no no no no no no you don't get to beat the giants and then be like you know look at this look at that look at me um the the main thing for them is like we the packers have to figure out a tucker craft solution right they're going to be a postseason team the packers by the time we get to january football you have to have figured out what you i mean they were like nearly a hundred percent to look something up they were they were nearly a hundred percent 11 personnel against the eagles right like they were just okay like we just don't have multiple tight end packages anymore you can't do that like you cannot this is not 2019 rams you're not going to fool everybody with with the only one personnel package anymore.

34:56And so get the wide receivers healthy and let's see like, okay, you know, who's going to be your slot players and how you're going to rotate your guys zone and so forth. No more bow melt in 20 routes. And then you're going to like, okay, you have John, John Fitzpatrick. And you have Luke Musgrave, who's an early draft pick for you. You have Josh Wiley, like maybe it's two back stuff. I don't know, but it's time to start throwing some things at the wall and seeing what can be our changeups when we get to January football. Cause you can't lose a player like Kraft as good as he was. And then just white flag and be like, all right, we just don't have multiple tight end sets anymore.

35:23That's not acceptable.

Read the full transcript

35:24Ben Solak:I think about like Matt LaFleur with the Malik Willis games and just how weird and creative he got and I'm like where is where where was this against Philadelphia Jaden Reed returns possibly week 13 that's a massive massive return for them it's been sneaky impactful but yeah no that doesn't matter in this game um Jameis is not like you know the Packers defense I trust deep that's kind of it's so fun to be getting a Jameis game and everybody's stoked about it but it's I was like, this is the worst defense for him to go against. For his style of play, it's horrible. It's a terrible matchup and they have no receivers.

36:01Ben Solak:Turn him over. Yeah. Okay. Let's do one more bad one before and then wrap this section with Bears-Vikings. But let's do Bengals-Steelers next. Visual matchup. Joe Burrow on return watch. My key for this game, Steelers-oriented, is just try again. because you walked out against the Bengals. You know, okay, defensively, the Bengals are horrible. You're going to put a bunch of points on the board. You're going to be successful, whatever. They went out in that game, and Joe Flacco had his fastest time to throw of the season, right? 2.45 seconds. This is the second fastest time to throw the last four years.

36:39The Steelers had an unbelievable game with pressure. 2.38 times of pressure. It's one of the fastest numbers in the last five years. 18.4 % quick pressure. Astonishing. But it just didn't matter because they were impressed 30 % of the time, and they're running disguise coverages and just jamar and t killed him right your corners in that game jaylen ramsey nine targets five receptions joy porter jr nine targets six receptions darius lay seven targets five receptions now slay might be out of this one he's in the concussion protocol you've moved ramsey out of the corner position he plays free safety now so this is going to be a a brandon uh brandon eckles game eckles yes eckles um it's going to be a uh uh you know jabril peppers might be coming back cowdoggers in the box you have different bodies but this this is what you have to do.

37:20You have an immobile quarterback back there who can't move around. You have to try to challenge the receivers off the line because you can't give them free access. You're going to get fast pressure and you just got to get them down. You got to get more sex. You got to get more turnovers. You got to get more hits. Like this is the formula. You can't really change the stripes.

37:36Ben Solak:Was the game where afterwards Jamar was like, yeah, man, I can't believe they singled me up. They do. They covered three, but there is, there's been a little bit of, I would say evolution over the last couple of weeks. you talked about the personnel stuff um you know there was the defense was largely fine against the chargers the chargers ran on them and um that's i think something that cincinnati could try to do but for the most part this just comes down to me like can you come up with a better game plan for jamar chase than the one you had yeah so the note i do have down is like since they played them the last time the bangles the jets played the bangles and the jets did not have a good game on the statute against the bangles don't get me wrong however on third downs the jets played zero and they bracketed chase and t so they had two double covers across the field and then they said they had jarvis brownley in the slot and he made up andre yosevoss and they said okay literally anybody else beat us in the passing game and they got enough stops off the line you know where joe really wanted to throw to jamar and he was on it for a little bit too long the pass rush got home or he threw a contestable to yosevoss and they they were able to you know tighten that window that to me like if you're going to try something new let's like let's take the middle of safety out of the field because we're not necessarily going to get good reps in that anyway in fact the middle safety is jaylen ramsey like you kind of like him in bracket positions and let's see if we can do some more actual double teaming stuff that to me is like the cool new thing you can try but a lot of this is just like you a little bit got to bang your head against the wall this is the team that you built for this is the way you built your defensive philosophy like what you if you're going to zone off okay great like flack was going to throw it at patrick queen 14 times you're going to you're still going to lose by paper cuts and so to me you got to try to get aggressive press right come up with some better chase plans and see if progression balances your way this time.

39:18Ben Solak:I'm going to take the Steelers this time. Yeah, at home. Second matchup. I feel like they're going to split it. I like the Steelers too. The Steelers at least have improved slightly on defense since then. The Bengals defense remains an absolute nightmare. Okay, Bears-Vikings. Six and three. Chicago Bears. Yeah. Another team that I feel like I have a little bit of trouble getting my arms around in Chicago. A lot of those wins have come against some pretty bad teams. The Vikings are not a bad team, but they are a flawed team, particularly on offense. I'm going to focus on the other side of the ball because that's the matchup I'm most excited about.

39:56Ben Solak:So from Minnesota's perspective, you got to do two things. Two things that I know Chicago can do. You got to stop the run, and you got to stop the deep passes. Unfortunately, those are two things that Minnesota has actually struggled at this year. The run stuff, so the Vikings run defense has looked a little bit better. over the last couple of weeks cashman comes back they still really struggle against outside zone which is what chicago measures in they're actually 29th in dvoa versus outside zone this year which we know that's what the bears the bears are a very have become a very good outside zone running team and then this this actually shocked me like i knew it wasn't gonna be good but versus d passes they We are 32nd in EPA for play this year.

40:40Ben Solak:And Chicago bombs it, man. This has been, like, maybe a little bit slept on, but Chicago is third in explosive plays. Caleb's fourth in attempts over 20 yards. Romo Dunze is the leading target getter there by a pretty significant clip. But going back and watching the Giants, some really pretty deep balls, some of which were caught, some of which were not. but uh i i think this team is gonna come out running and then bombs off play action and if the vikings can't stop those then chicago has a real chance against this defense yeah next gen stats has the bears the highest explosive play rate in football 17.2 that's on the ground and passing combined the deep passing thing is so fun there there are there are two defenses in the league that are allowing a completion percentage over 60 on throws 20 plus yards down the field they're the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears.

41:34Mina, there are two defenses in the league that are allowing a completion percentage over 55 % 20 guys on the field. It is the Minnesota Vikings. It's the Chicago Bears. These are by a mile, the two most inconsistent defenses deep down the field. They lack great speed at safety and great instincts at safety, right? And so you can get uncontested balls further down the field. And then these are teams that for the Bears, they just very inconsistently get pressure with four. And so you can have these prolonged dropbacks. And for the Vikings, it's if we want to be a high pressure team, we're going to be be sending additional bodies and there's going to be you know disguise coverage and coverage movements downfield that allow for room they allow for air and they allow for space the theory being we can get there fast enough before you can find it hasn't borne out so far this year and also the corner play has been pretty rough and so this is going to be the drive chart in this game is going to be sick it's going to be three and outs peppered by four play 80 yard touchdown drives just the whole way down there could be 56 points scored in this game there could be 23 points scored in

42:29Ben Solak:skate and nowhere in between it's gonna be very fun caleb threw some gorgeous passes i it's new york i i i found the caleb film so unbelievably frustrating because if if that film happened for any of the like you know forgive me for this any of like the you know film breakdown people's like favorite quarterbacks that happened for any of our adorned boys if that was a baker mayfield game or a jj mccarthy game it would have been wall-to-wall coverage and with caleb it was like oh man you're still taking risks oh is he processing that was an unbelievable by the way cash damn ball bears i i posted this um i think i'm blue sky but like that they had like the most drops of any receiver group in a yep and that's and that's with a couple like fringe ones that don't necessarily get charted there's a a drop that got taken off with dpi right and so that doesn't get like that yeah yeah this should have been a like caleb williams is the third quarterback in NFL history to complete 70 % of his fastest and throw over 350 yards game.

43:27It was unbelievable.

43:28Ben Solak:The one he threw rolling to his right, to Zaccheaus, to the corner of the end zone, was just like nasty, nasty ball. All right, you're on Chicago. I don't know if I robbed your points there. No, so my point was very much on the 20 plus yards down the field, right? The objective for the Bears is to get the ball out of McCarthy's hands faster, right? When we talk about elite quarterbacks, we want to make their time to throw longer, slow them down make them think when we talk about bad quarterbacks with mccarthy oh no no we don't want him to have you know three and a half seconds back there to think and there's no pressure and he can see justin jefferson he can hitch hitch throw no we want to fluster this game to me go ahead no i have good news for you vikings fans yeah the pressure sucks exactly the uh bears pressure right now two point uh it's 2.9 seconds in time to pressure it's a third longest in football their week one game against the vikings was actually quite good for pressure rate 35 they They got after McCarthy early, but Justin school was in that game for Christian Derrissaw.

44:26And when you go back and you watch the pressures, yeah, it was left guard Donovan Jackson's first career start. And it was a backup left tackle. And that's just where they feasted. John Jackson has improved in his play. And now Derrissaw is back for this game. They're seventh worst in team pressure rate on the season. And so to me, this is a game where Austin Booker's back on the field. Javon Dexter, excuse me, has, I think gotten his sea legs under him and started playing a little bit better. It sucks.

44:49Ben Solak:It's a little harsh. Sweats look better. Yeah. So to me, the, move here is, you know, drop back in the zones and play the too high and you have to try to be able to get pressure here with four. You just don't want to let McCarthy take these shots that he's living on. 18.5 % of his throws, 20 plus yards down the field by a mile, the most of any quarterback in football. He can't dig and dunk it. He doesn't have it in him. He's not accurate enough. He takes too many sacks. They have too many offensive penalties. It's only with explosives that this guy beats you, puts a lot of points on you. You cannot give them up.

45:20Ben Solak:Maybe fewer than five false starts as a goal for the Vikings offense it's a home game they ran the ball well though that was interesting too that was what part of what was so dispiriting about the McCarthy performance was like they actually ran the ball well um and I think they they have the potential to run the ball well against Chicago as well so I'm taking Chicago here um I really liked what I saw from Caleb last week and I have just been very concerned watching this Vikings passing attack yeah this this is going to be kevin o 'connell's best game since jj came back in the sense like he had uh two weeks ago had kelvin shepherd in the lions and that's a challenging uh opponent o 'connell did well last week you know it's zach awards his ravens defense which is you know kyle hamilton now they're presenting problems to you that's challenging o 'connell did well this is like there's so much gettable in the bears in terms of the cornerback two and the safety speeds and the linebacker playing coverage so o 'connell's going to get mccarthy his buckets like this is this is the one we're like all right like first two games back from injury you know only your fourth career start your head's been swimming we got to take a step forward in performance in this game i think i'd like the vikings to win because of the desperation because the coaching advantage it's it's it's very tight chicago i agree six and three they keep finding a way to win but like this is this is fraudulent and at some point it's going to come back to bite them this is a hard game to pick yeah i'm just not a believer in this bears defense based on what we've seen based on the pass rush and quality of wins comes into play but i'm taking the bears i don't like how it feels i'm I just think I really like what we're seeing from Caleb.

46:51Ben Solak:And I, yeah, like I just so discouraged from we'll see Minnesota proved me wrong, but yeah, the bears, I mean, Dallas, they got their butts kicked by, they lost about the Vikings. They got their butts kicked by the lions. They beat the Cowboys. They beat Raiders. They beat the commanders, the saints. Commanders was also a very cheesy win. Giants was a cheesy win. Bengals was a cheesy win. All right. they've played like some like maybe like three of the worst defenses in the end a hammer will drop on the bears eventually right they're about to play like they have the whole nfc north coming up besides the wikings it's the pro caleb podcast all right let's do quick break come back we'll get to the two enormous games of the week after the break get summer going with a firework freeze five hour energy shot you get that iconic freezer pop flavor but with zero sugar and a five hour energy boost bursting with cherry lime and blue raspberry flavors firework freeze five hour energy shots bring a caffeine kick without the sugar.

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48:54Ben Solak:Alright, we're back. Let's do it. Chargers Jags. Yes! I'll do that one first, before we get to that one. The Chargers are my radioactive team. Like, you know I'm not touching the Banthers. These Chargers, I'm like ugh, no! That's fair. Um... Okay, so this one's pretty simple to me, which is just can the Jags be semi-competent in the trenches on both sides? So, you know, I alluded to the loss. That was kind of the story of the collapse against Houston. The pass protection was an absolute nightmare for Trevor Lawrence. After they went up, he was pressured on, like, every single drop back he took, was sacked multiple times.

49:35Ben Solak:again that's daniel hunter but the chargers pass rush is no joke you saw that i think uh with khalil mac and then on the other side of the ball you know we know the story with la this their offensive line is somehow even worse so the question becomes can you do something i mean that was almost as disappointing to me watching the jacksonville pass rush it's supposed to be the strength of the team and the contrast between them and houston in that game was like pretty bad to be honest yes and that's houston you're going up against the houston offensive line which you know is maybe not as bad as the chargers at this point but pretty bad so jacksonville if you want to save your season you want to turn this thing around you got to protect chiro you got to rush the passer yeah this is if you cannot do it against the chargers you cannot do it period right and anthony campanile had a very nice start to the season i thought it's the jacks dc there was a lot of creativity and they got the jump on a lot of guys since then like you know i think teams have figured out how to throw against this team how to get their one-on-ones and the corner play isn't as strong as you would hope for it to be obviously they plan to have Travis Hunter play in there and they aren't necessarily but overall like it's tough to put too many eggs in the campanile basket there's there's more he could do there with with blitzes and like you know Devin Lloyd has kind of come back down to earth a little bit but in general you just look at like Heinz Allen and Trayvon Walker who like Walker's numbers still look fine but besides these two players there's just nothing nothing nothing in terms of interior push both the running game into the passing game and that is it's extremely difficult to coach around the nfl there's no such thing as a good defense without a good front four and so you need better play from eric armstead you need better play from mason smith like it it has to improve especially the defensive tackle room charges offensive line like i mean like i think you and i could get five pressures you and i have a daniel hunter game against bobby hart like it it's it's to me the worst offensive line of football so i like the jags to get the bounce back game because i just think it's that prohibitive herbert hero game against the stealers there's there's no way he can keep doing this they did run the football well against pittsburgh but also i think some of the kamani vidal magic is wearing off like they're not getting like the you know high rush yard over expectation big explosive runs like now it's very grinding and very grimy uh arunda gadsden probably still going to be able to play in this game but if there's no gadsden man like it's just so hard to find big plays outside of your your hero throws again to like quinton johnson and keenan allen and lad mcconkey we know those have been inconsistent we know we've dealt with drops and lads had some quiet games and so i like the jags but this is because like i expect them to be a little bit more serious than they've been brenton strange practice window just opened five hours ago in just in time but i don't know if he's going to play in this game i'm taking the la chargers um because of the other side of the ball i don't like jacksonville against this chargers defense I think the Chargers defense, they were really great, and then they dipped, and guys have gotten a little bit healthier.

52:24Ben Solak:Max return has been really big for them, so I like them against this Jags, this very inconsistent Jags offense. They've been getting pressure, man. That's not easy against Aaron Rodgers, who throws the ball in half a second. Okay, let's do it. Ramsey Hawks. Do this one first. um so this is in la which doesn't really matter because the seax are so good on the road and it's la right exactly i think it's better to be in la uh i'm gonna focus on the rams here i'm gonna start because i just saw a quote that really informs my thinking uh let me pull it up it's from the incredible jb long who does a fantastic job we do the rams preseason he calls game college games with Michael Jr.

53:09Ben Solak:He also does this, he calls the Rams games on Rams radio. And he has this great show with Sean McVay once a week where he asks him like people, if you guys like ball, you should watch it, especially if you're a Rams fan, because he gets into like the weeds. So he brings up, JB brings up the trend of all the good offenses in the NFL, putting big bodies on the field and getting defenses in base, which is what the Rams have been doing. We've been talking about this on show last few weeks started with Nakua out. They've been leaning really heavily into 13 personnel and then just shredding theme teams through the air, which the Seahawks do too.

53:44Ben Solak:Right. So Sean McVay said this, uh, shoot, I didn't transcribe it exactly, but JB asked about it and he said, yeah, you know, it's definitely a trend. He agrees with JB and he says, but if you want to go lighter, we will mash you paraphrasing. That's basically what McPhase said. Seattle matches 13 personnel and 12. I did add in both to get a larger sample size with base defense at the lowest rate in the entire NFL. Seattle does not do it. They won't do it. They do that because they can defend the run so well out of their nickel defense. Seattle's nickel defense versus the run, 3.9 yards per carry.

54:24Ben Solak:Seattle's nickel defense versus runs with multiple tight ends, 3.3 yards per carry, which is a nice thing. insane. I think if they do that, and that's what I expect them to do, McVay is going to try to run the ball on them. If you're going to go light, he's going to run it. And whether or not Seattle can keep it up against this run game, to me, is going to be massive in this game. I haven't been this excited for a regular season game in a minute. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that this is the best offensive head coach in football against the best defensive head coach in football it's arguable but i think it's not an exaggeration to say that i also don't think it's an exaggeration to say this is right now the like the most cooking the most heater offensive coordinator in football and clink kubiak against the most cooking heater defensive coordinator and chris shula like it is just it's it's war daddy stuff on both sides of the ball when the rams haven't it's 13 personnel this this is the game for which you went and got nikam on warry this is the trade-up was for this game if you watch week nine last year this is ram Seahawks.

55:27The Rams only had 13 offensive points of regulation. They got it to overtime. They won it overtime. Stafford hero throws, whatever. But they were struggling on offense. Mike Mack was having a great game. They came out in the second half. They put multiple tight ends on the field, and they ran the football because Seattle was trying to play nickel to everything. And at that time, there was no Monwari. It was Kayvon Wallace and Kobe Bryant in the box, or Julian Love, excuse me. And they were able to get on the boundary a ton. And they get these off-tackle runs because they were only getting four down fronts.

55:52They get the tight ends up to the second level, and that was the solution. And Mike McDonald said, okay, I'm going to go get a very large safety and I'm going to have the ability to play nickel with this guy in the box. And he's going to be able to cut off those, those lines. The other players, DeMarcus Lawrence, who now you can play some five down front stuff with a Cheninowosu and DeMarcus Lawrence. And those guys are really, really strong run defending edge setters. This like, like it, I, Mike, the Seattle defensive approach in free agency and in the draft was for this Rams team. And the Rams met him pound for pound with Terrence Ferguson, with Davis Allen, with the additional tight end.

56:23Like this, it is a clash of offensive and defensive philosophies in a way that it's just like, it's beautiful and enjoyable and great.

56:31Ben Solak:Yeah, I mean. The thing 3.3 yards per carry out of a nickel versus heavy is like insane. And I should have it's a big big nickel because in more he's like kind of he's a safety I guess you know but he's bigger than your average nickel. This is there's like a league wide like if you got a Cooper de Jean if you got like if you have a nickel who can get his nose dirty. It's so important right now because of the exact dynamic we're describing. um yeah i'm very interested to see how they deploy him because the thing about imonwari right now is that he's still green he's a young pup and so some of the play action reps are rough some of the misdirection stuff is tough he's false stepping a lot his eyes are not like when he's next to ernest jones and he's next to devon witherspoon like he is so clearly a tick two ticks below these players in terms of processing i would love to see mike get him on the edge a la kyle Hamilton in Baltimore right now, right?

57:25Ben Solak:Where instead of playing, you know, like a four down front and then a Monwari is like stacked as a linebacker or a five down front. He's walked down as a linebacker in a seven man box. I would love to be able to reduce the front, get DeMarcus Lawrence inside of the tackle, get a boy, a Moffat inside of the tackle, Derek Hall inside of the tackle, and then stand a Martin Wari up on the line of scrimmage outside of those tight ends because you cannot let the runs get to the boundary on you. Once the runs are to get the boundary on you and, and, and your linebackers have to play fast to flow and your corners have to play downhill, that's the moment they murder you in play action pass.

57:54They will, they will boot Stafford out and he will drop a ball 40 yards downfield in a bucket. So you have to set better edges of this game. So I'd like to see how Monwari walked up and then you let Ernest Jones play fast in the second level. There's a game for like penny front stuff with them. Your five one front to me, this is, this is the game for it.

58:08Ben Solak:The Rams, uh, because they hit the big plays through the air out of those 13 personnel. You saw like the ball to Ferguson in this game. They, um, hit a big one to i think all the tight ends honestly had explosives if i remember correctly against san francisco but it was it was also very match-up-y right because san francisco doesn't have linebackers anymore so it's like okay cool let's put our big guys i am interested in seeing if mcveigh leans into that or if he actually feels a little bit more comfortable with 11 like i think what's what's key here is i think this is the core point because seattle's defense is so good out of their nickel or big nickel right now, opposing offenses can't really manipulate them the way the best offenses are doing in the NFL at the moment.

58:58Ben Solak:It's part of like, it's why you can't go no huddle on them. Like they just keep, you talked about that with Washington, right? You were like, Seattle could just keep the same guys on the field. They're just so good at stopping both the run and the pass. They're great against play action. This was like sneakily a weakness of theirs last year, even when they improved in the second half of the season, when they traded for Ernest Jones, they still really struggled versus play action. They're so good against play action this year. To me, it comes down to that defensive line, right? It's the ability to slur all these runs, and the ball has to wait, wait, wait behind the line because Leonard is so good.

59:30Byron Murphy's playing unbelievably this season. We've talked about the edges. That's where now I, okay, thinking about things that way, when the Rams played them last year, it was Bo Collins, excuse me, Bo Limer at center, and it was Justin Dedish at left guard. And the Seahawks blitz the ever-living daylights on the left side of the line. And they really, really won on the interior runs because they had an advantage in the interior. Kevin Dotson this year is kicking pale, brother. I mean, he is just taking names. Steve Aviat, the left side, looks healthy. He's playing excellent. Is it Coleman Shelton or Shelton Coleman?

1:00:03They always screw me over. Coleman Shelton, thank you. There's two offensive linemen. They have flip names and it kills me. Coleman Shelton, there's the center for the Rams. The interior play is much better than it was. And so if you can grind out those runs and get those double teams to be successful, it changes everything off of what the Rams did last year. Rams were three for 13 on third down against the Seahawks because they could not get into their third and mediums. And then all of a sudden it was blitz packages from everywhere. Third highest blitz rate of a Mike McDonald game for the Seahawks.

1:00:30You're not gonna be able to do that again if it's third and four, but it's third and seven. Stafford can't really move as much this year. It's going to be heat. They're going to blitz a ton in this one.

1:00:37Ben Solak:did you have a are you looking at this from the seahawks offense point of view or are you i mean let's talk about that because right equally fascinating right because as much as we talk about this seahawks defense being amazing and they are the rams defense quietly the most improved unit in the entire nfl and nobody talks about it this was not a good defense last year no and i think everybody remembers the end of the year but it's like no for most of the year they were not good and this year they've been exceptionally better yeah and a big part of the improvement is what was foretold by last year which is we can just blow a lot of stuff up with this defensive line like we can be very penetration oriented they are they are so good in terms of getting knockbacks and resetting the line of scrimmage and just making everything muddy and mucky the secondary now like they're really good in the spine the quinn lake at the nickels playing wonderful football camp kitchens and safety is a huge player for them the outside corners are still your concern so if you're seattle here this is a game to go extremely condensed in the formation to get a lot of bodies in there it's obviously what your identity has been but like this is a big fullback game robbie boots right you got to get robby back there you know you do your two tight end stuff and then be able to put json on the outside and and you have to check your work and see what they're going to give you there because if like i know emmanuel forbes has played well this year but if they're going to give you that matchup you he's averaging 4.5 yards per run like you you're gonna have to to be there uh so to me the thing to really really hammer in this game is to just go extremely aggressively into the play action pass like like when sam played this rams defense last year in the playoffs right remember shula walked in that vikings game you know darren donald's on fire vikings are killing it but they had some offensive line issues and shula basically just said i'm i'm going to always send for we're we're screwing run defense like we're not going to be gap sound whatsoever we're going to constantly muddy up the pocket for Sam here.

1:02:24We just don't expect him to be comfortable. You have to be able to boot out Sam. You have to be able to max protect for him. You have to hide him from the pass rush. Shula and the Rams defense this year, success rate on dropbacks against play action, they're 27th. It is still an issue for this team because the linebacker play is not that strong because you can pick on these corners in space when they play zone. This is not the strength of the unit. To me, this is much what Seattle's been so far this season is supposed to work against this Rams defense. It hides the pass rush and it gates that big advantage.

1:02:49Then you go for JSN in space. 15 targets for Smith and Jigler.

1:02:53Ben Solak:The Rams have a harder choice to make than the Seahawks, right? Because I think what we're describing with the Seahawks offense versus the Rams, or probably the Rams offense versus the Seahawks defense was really strength on strength because the Seahawks defense cannot be manipulated. The Rams defense, as good as they are, to your point, can take advantage of certain weaknesses that Seattle doesn't have. If I'm L.A., I am just begging Seattle to run the football on every down. Whatever I can give you, the tastiest run looks. Now, the problem is, unlike Seattle, when the Rams go lighter, they're not as good against the run.

1:03:28Ben Solak:They're decent. They've been decent against the run. But when teams have put big bodies on the field, you are able to run on them. I just think you would rather live that way against this team because Seattle is still so inconsistent running the football than get diced up by JSN and these tight ends and cups, you know, it's a cup revenge game. um i just don't love i don't like this rams pass defense against seattle at all so i think you really want them to run yeah now we talked about this when we added when rashid shaheed was trade during the pod last week right where you want to have a more legitimate wide receiver two option for if and when those teams just really index on jsn defensively chris shula is gonna put a safety and a corner pressing on jsn the entire game right this is a deep this as a defensive coordinator goes over the last year and a half.

1:04:22He has been extremely willing to push safeties to the side and press and to cloud and to push coverage that way. They play a lot of zone coverage. They don't have guys who are elite processors or whatever. So he plays the numbers game. He will play five over three and man a backside and just make somebody else beat him. This is the game for which you got Shahid. Obviously, he had three reverse touches against the Cardinals. That game was made up. They were winning 28-0 in the first quarter. It's not a helpful game in terms of how he's going to be used uh this if you can get your shaheed isolations on the back side and they're going to give that to you because they're over indexing the jsn then this is the game for that yeah yeah um script is huge as well we're talking about the seahawks offense sam donnell has just avoided clear drop back situations all year because their defense has been so excellent they've been nursing these big leads they've stayed ahead of the sticks i mean you you this seahawks defense has been putting the offense in good positions if you're the rams man like if i'm mcveigh i'm walking out with a trick play in the first quarter right i'm well i'm well first Highly aggressive.

1:05:18If I can get you to 10-0, if I can get you to 13-3, I really think I can take advantage of Sam in the second half. So point margin first half, an extremely big deal for the Rams.

1:05:28Ben Solak:Script is big for the Rams too, because I don't think the Rams are as dependent on run-pass conflict. I think you could trust Matthew Stafford to come from behind or in drop-back situations. But this is not the defense. You saw this against Cardinals. This is not the defense you want to fall behind against. it really has that 2000 speaking as the Seahawks you know which I rarely do it reminds me a lot of the feeling that I had in 2013 or so where I was like excited for the defense to get on the field which is like such a unique football feeling we're like let's go yeah we got a lead we're going after the quarterback you don't want to fall behind against this team and there have been you know defensive sensations over the last couple of years all the brandon staley vicfangio moment oh the brian flores moment i cannot stress this enough mike mcdonald can code switch he can he can be both of those guys in one game and it is like the the game the in the game last year they they played man and pressed because and staff had his second lowest rate of quick passes in his entire in the last two seasons because mike walks out and says what is going to make you uncomfortable And they are, they are every single week.

1:06:42Ben Solak:It's so players to do it. I mean, Marcus Spears. Oh, it's consistently laying. This is his favorite defensive line to watch in football because yeah, they don't have a miles Garrett. They don't have, you know, um, a Daniel Hunter, but every single player is good. The way Mike McDonald weaponizes the defensive line, the way he gets matchups for them, the way he overloads. overloads and it is masterful quite frankly I'm taking Seattle screw it all right I wasn't sure until this second but I'm taking Seattle because I think that the Rams offense and the Seahawks defense are almost exactly evenly matched and I think the Seattle offense is slightly better than the Rams defense yeah um when I know Ernest Jones status for this game I will pick it I will hop back on the ball.

1:07:36Ben Solak:Coward! I'm at a spot where I want to take the Rams. I just... It's fair. And I'm falling for the exact same banana in the tailpipe I fell for last year where I was constantly picking against the Eagles. I was like, eventually we'll see them on a negative script and they'll have to drop back. It's just like, never happened. We don't know if this team is as super as that team is. If it's a 10-point deficit for Stafford, we're all going to be on the edge of our seats in the fourth quarter. If it's a 10-point deficit for Sam in the fourth quarter, I just trust that a lot less, especially against this pass rush.

1:08:05We didn't talk about Anthony Bradford and some of the ways that she was going to be able to get after some of the weak points in protection. But yeah, Ernest Jones, me, Mike McDonald literally just said an hour ago, I just checked. No updates yet.

1:08:15Ben Solak:You know who was freaking awesome this last week? Tyrese Knight. Both of the backup backers, Knight was amazing. But yeah. I cannot tell you, you brought up Marcus Spears, how much he loves this defensive line. The defensive line is depth that has unbelievable talent across the board. So many body types, it's great. I find it so profoundly offensive that I'm watching a defense featuring Drake Thomas, Ty Okada, and Josh Jobe, who just like, Josh Jobe, excuse me. Who's simply like. Josh Jobe is good now. Right. If you handed, but if you handed a defense with those three starters to any other coordinator in the league, no shot.

1:08:47And Mike's just like, no. Mike's just like, hey, Ty Okada's elite now. Don't worry about it.

1:08:50Ben Solak:Okay. Mike McDonald appreciates. I know. Sorry. Everyone's like, oh, he's a CX fan winner. Mike McDonald appreciation note here. Because Mike, first of all, he should be getting coach of the year hype. I don't think he's, it always goes to like. I was going to leave the column with it this week and blend by fire. And you just described why, which is, yeah, they've got good players. I always say Leonard Williams is the most underrated player in football that no one talks about. Obviously, they have highly drafted players, Spoon, Emin Worry, et cetera. Byron Murphy, who's been awesome this year.

1:09:20Ben Solak:But as guys have, every time a guy gets injured, it doesn't matter watching this team. And you have guys come in like Thomas and Okada and whatnot. and it's not just the scheme is you know we talked about everything they do with the terms of the pressures in particular which I love watching the most but to be able to teach players to come in like that and execute at the high level that we're seeing to me absolutely speaks to the coaching that he's doing the coaching job that he's doing Emin Worry by the way I loved him I was like it's gonna take a while for this kid right yeah you know just watching him in college some of the angles and stuff.

1:09:56Ben Solak:He has so dramatically exceeded my expectations. You know, he's a high draft pick. He was a second. They gave up some, but for him to come in and immediately have the impact that he has, outstanding stuff. I mean, just credit to Mike McDonald. This is in two years. He did it again. He did it with Baltimore. And then he did it again with Seattle. If that's not code, I know we care about offense, but if that's not coach of the year stuff, I don't know what is. and that's before we even get to i hired an offensive coordinator in year one it clearly didn't work we're going to change our quarterback go get a new offensive coordinator immediately plug and chug like that just doesn't it doesn't it doesn't it doesn't happen it's so cool anyway ramswin staff was great okay um we gotta be we gotta speed up here a little bit because we spent so much time in that game uh okay uh you have niners cardinals uh it is no mervyn harrison who Mariners and junior who has appendicitis.

1:10:51Yes. Had a surgery on Monday. Hope wishing the best for you, Marvin. Not only that, Zay Jones to IR, the Achilles, Stemi Fajoko also went to IR at wide receiver. The available wide receivers as of right now, they will certainly promote someone off the practice squad are Michael Wilson, Greg Dorch, Xavier Weaver is a 2024 UDFA, three targets, no receptions. And Andre Bocellia is a 2020 UDFA who has seven catches in 2022. And those are his only stats. That's the current receiver room in Arizona. the injury arrow points the other direction in San Francisco where Brock Purdy is as Kyle Shanahan weirdly is framing it going to have an aggressive week of practice I don't know why aggressive is the attitude um but Brock might be back in this game when they played in week three it was Mac Jones the second side so Brock hasn't seen the Cardinals yet on Ricky Pearsall also expected to come back and practice this week um that's big yeah I actually still do like the Cardinals here I think that like we all had the Jacoby uh Cowboys game they made Jacoby the starter we're all like yay like this will be better they ran to seattle and legit i can't the second they fell behind i'm like oh the jacoby percent and 50 play action offense yeah so offensive plays with a win percentage greater a win percent like likelihood win probability greater than 10 percent you have a guess how many plays the cardinals had with a win probability greater than 10 percent on offense i don't know it was seven that's how many before it was like oh you barely have a shot in hell winning this game so it's just like that's it's very much a throwaway game for me on the offense defense too like was not even that bad remember there were two scores on the sack fumbles it just ran out really poor in the first quarter for them uh meanwhile you got a niners defense that's 30th in success rate 28 points per drive 27th in epa per play so for the cardinals the The key for this game for me is running it through Trey McBride.

1:12:38You should have a very thin wide receiver room. There's no Fred Warner available. This is going to be a game where you have to be able to find creative ways to use him. I think you should split him out wide a lot more, throw it to him in isolation. Probably still no Trey Benson, so you're looking at Michael Carter and Amari Di Mercado game because Zane Knight is also out. This has to be a game where you find your star player and you find creative ways to get him moving across the formation. So Petsing, dust off that 13 personnel, dust off some of those Browns plays. Let's get after it. I do like the Cardinals to win this game, even with Brock Brady.

1:13:05Really? Yeah, absolutely. I'm on the Niners. Niners defense, man. Like, this is not quick. I know.

1:13:10Ben Solak:I hear you. But, I don't know.

1:13:16Brissette doesn't quite have the same.

1:13:19Ben Solak:Like a Trey McBride game, I think about the formula. It's quick passes. It's pop comes up. Yeah, I don't know. I know it's maybe Brock Purdy, but watching the Niners against the Rams, I was still like, uh, this offense is actually still pretty good. I think they do some good stuff on the ground. I think they'll be able to run it on Arizona. So they, they play when they play week three, uh, McCaffrey had like 15 carries for 40 yards, right? Yeah. But that's before McCaffrey, like he like really, there's something like the last few weeks. I know, I know you, but he has gotten a lot. And there was no kettle in that game too.

1:13:54It was also a big part. That's been a massive part of the improvement that they've had.

1:13:57Ben Solak:Okay. Uh, cool. We're split again. I like it. Spicy. Uh, Ravens Browns important update. This is what I was Googling. Lamar Jackson didn't practice today, Wednesday, but he is expected to return Thursday. So, notable. I wrote, I'm not going to focus on that side of the ball. I'm going to focus on the Ravens defense. I want to see if this pressure, if this pass rush is trending in the right direction, which looked like it, but JJ McCarthy helps in that regard. but Mike Green has started to flash a little bit. Draymond Jones had a couple of nice plays. I thought Travis Jones was excellent against the Vikings.

1:14:38Ben Solak:And this Browns offensive line is just a nightmare. It's look, Gabriel's not been good. I get it, but whole buddy, it is ugly out there. I mean, they have to rank at the top of the NFL and pressure rate. Fun fact, Dylan Gabriel, when defenses send a blitzing defensive back, is dead last with a qbr of four better than three worse than uh there is one in baltimore you may have heard of who likes to come dude the kyle hamilton trying to break up a screen rep on gabriel where he's already six inches taller than him and he's got the hands up it's gonna be a tough screenshot swallow him yeah uh just in general i think the ravens are gonna blitz him a lot in this one i would so yeah i'll take i'll take the ravens we don't have we i mean the other side of the ball.

1:15:27Ben Solak:These teams played. It was kind of a weird game. Lamar didn't have to do much. He had a few deep passes. I remember. I think they should be able to win this. The Browns offense is just dismal right now. Lamar against the Ravens is interesting because the way they've always been successful against Cleveland is the fact that they're going to get their double teams and they can steamroll and they can run and get the train moving. It's just not been the case with this offensive line and with Derrick Henry this year. I'm a little worried about this game for the Ravens. When everyone was mapping out how the one in five Ravens got to seven and five and won the AFC North and whatever it was like oh Miami check oh you know Minnesota McCarthy check this is the game to me where it's like okay Cleveland's defense tends to be way better at home it is a divisional game you're not really scared of anything from the offense I get that but also like this this Ravens offense is still very herky-jerky like the point totals and the stats against Miami and Minnesota look good watch those games you know it's it's a few drives right it's for a half it hasn't been a complete idea yet it's it's you see the flashes of how good they are and it's like oh that's lamar there's lamar and there's a flowers but yeah it has been they still aren't quite figuring it out in terms of running the ball i think that's going to be an issue against cleveland but i just think the other side yeah so i like ravens to win but would not be surprised this is still close one fourth quarter so good so good so good new summer arrivals are at nordstrom rack stores now Get ready to save big with up to 60 % off brands like Rag & Bone, Levi's, Adidas, and Free People.

1:16:55Ben Solak:Join the Nordic Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. I am one of Mochanui. On July 10th. Maui, you will board my boat and restore the heart of Te Fiti. And here we go. The journey begins. See her light up the night in the sea. She calls me. The ocean chose you. Let's go save the world. I got your back chosen one. Disney's Moana. Boat's neck. His name is Hey Hey. His name is Yum Yum. When he goes in my tum tum. In theaters July 10th. Rated PG. Parental guidance suggested.

1:17:40This episode is brought to you by State Farm. You know those friends who support your preference for podcasts over music on road trips? That's the energy State Farm brings to insurance. With over 19 ,000 local agents, they help you find the coverage that fits your needs. So you can spend less time worrying about insurance and more time enjoying the ride. Download the State Farm app or go online at statefarm.com.

1:18:02Ben Solak:Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. All right. We've got three more games, two good ones. let's do Chiefs Broncos uh and then we'll get to the Eagles and Lions on Sunday night football um you're on Kansas City I'm on Denver why don't you go first and what's your key for Kansas City in this yeah the key is to find more consistent pressure answers right when we go back we look at that Mahomes game against the Bills Mahomes was three for 16 when pressured he had zero scrambles he had 18 air yards per attempt against pressure against uh Buffalo there is just no reason to live like this, right?

1:18:39And I understand why you're trying to live like this. It's because last year you couldn't live like this. You couldn't kill teams. You know, the one play 75 yard moonshot, go running down the field, celebrating touchdown. Like that just wasn't in the guards for you. And so the pendulum has swung that direction. They really want to be that way. Marquise Brown down the field, David Worthy down the field. It's more volatile than the Chiefs need to be. Last year was obviously the pendulum too far in the first direction, right? When they played the Broncos in week nine, the week 18 game was Carson Wentz.

1:19:07So we only have really the one sample, but 40 % of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage. They had a 43 % pressure rate. Like they had to live fast time to throw, throwing underneath all their screens and their RPO stuff to try to mitigate the pass rush. All right. Well, Juwan Taylor should be back in this game. That's expected. We'll see if Josh Simmons can play. If he's got to get back up to football speed, he's back with the team. Nobody really knows, but your tackle play should be better. And now your wide receiver play should be better with no Patrick Sertan. So, you know, when they send their blitzes and when Nick Benito inevitably wins and Zach Allen inevitably wins, that's going to happen.

1:19:36Let's, you know, win on a slant let's you know win on on a back shoulder ball on a stop route it shouldn't be literally zero to 100 more like negative three to 100 in terms of where we're trying to go against teams on pressure so we got to modulate we got to find a happy ground i know we're all excited ever she writes back but the model on offense last year wasn't totally wrong it's nice to be

1:19:54Ben Solak:consistent we need to return to that a little bit still no sir tan alex singleton missing in this game after he's on the news yeah yeah team test found i had cancer um but treatable he'll be okay but he's missing this game um yeah man like this game's tough for me because the broncos defense i think matches up really well with kansas city like i was thinking about you know i'm thinking through all this stuff you're describing like okay well what do they have to do what have they been doing poorly but like they just are good against all of the stuff that the chiefs major not having sertan is really i do think because of the absence of sertan kansas city can attack them through the air in a way that if Trehan was in the mix, I think I would be a little bit skeptical of.

1:20:39Ben Solak:I don't think they can run on them. So I think this is... And typically against the Broncos, you always hear me talk about running back targets. I do not want to be throwing the ball to Isaiah Pacheco if he goes and Kareem Hunt. That's what I'm saying. Is this finally like the Brashard Smith game? So you've gotten like two thirds of the Brashard Smith game. So maybe that is. I think he is an important answer for them in that regard, especially with Singleton. Now, Dre Greenlaw's back. Yeah, so it'll be him and Strenet. So that helps. That does help a lot. so it's not like a huge but even so um i think also i i think denver's gonna play a ton of time in this game i would i would not be surprised if even with the insert energy if they lean heavily into their sub packages um it's kind of like hard for brocco's games are hard there's no way to talk about it without getting in trouble you just have to turn into the I'm in trouble.

1:21:32Ben Solak:I'm just like not what I meant. It's not hard to discuss. They're easy to discuss. They're hard to pick because I think this defense can single handedly win every game. I think they can single handedly win this game. The offense is not fun to watch. I think they can run it on Kansas city. No JK Dobbins though, potentially. Yeah. I still think they can. Yeah. I mean, so Dobbins as a 161 rushing yards over expectation this year, RJ Harvey has 16, 44 % success Harvey's 32 % Harvey had one huge run and since then they haven't used him at a high volume so we're dealing with a small sample here Dobbins has been in my opinion quite good this year relative to Harvey who I would say to be below league average he has been good against Kansas City I talked about this with the Bills you know run between the tackles you and I talked about that game and we talked about how they could run and attack the backers through the air, and then that's what they did.

1:22:35Ben Solak:Denver could hypothetically do that as well.

1:22:42Ben Solak:I... Well, my key, by the way, was not about that side of the ball. Sorry. I was just in agreement with you with Kansas City in terms of how they often should attack that defense. But my feeling is that Denver Broncos' defense has to turn this into a Patrick Mahomes gets frustrated game. And they are able to do that. But I would feel a lot better if Sir Tan. I'm taking Kansas City because Sir Tan's not playing. There you go. Yeah. Sir Tan was playing. I actually think I might take Denver because I think this defense would just be so overwhelming. But without him, there are places for Patrick to attack through the air.

1:23:20Ben Solak:And I think the ball comes out quick and he does that. Yeah. I do think we're going to see a much better version of the Denver offense than we certainly saw against the Raiders. It was a long week. That was like a bottom tier game for them. They obviously like spend a lot of time in the off season game planning against these Kansas city chiefs. The chiefs are really, really struggle against tight ends. The Broncos have about six of them, right? And so you're going to be able to go multiple tight end and move us. They have six. I'm not saying they're good six, but they play six of them. Corlin sign had a very nice performance against Trent McDuffie in the past.

1:23:48I think it's generally been a good player against McDuffie. It's the sort of receiver that McDuffie struggles with six inches on

1:23:54Ben Solak:McDuffie. Yeah. And so to me, like there's a lot, that matches up there well the thing is just like you know nicks on early downs nicks on the script nicks outside of the fourth quarter is just a bottom five quarterback right now by every metric we've got he is so risk averse he is so terrified of taking a sack he is so worried about throwing into a intermediate window getting interception that just everything is checked out and go check down and go and if you do this against the chiefs who are very good tackling team in the secondary you're just going to make mistakes down the field so you gotta be you know it's hard to stay aggressive and he hasn't been that aggressive but it's hard to stay aggressive when you've been throwing your picks downfield and you've been very inaccurate you got to ride the variance wave a little bit you kind of have to keep going into it against the chiefs otherwise you're going to see too many third and eights you're going to see too many zero blitzes and that's going to lead to fumbles and sacks and punts and so hopefully you know uh you know they have the bye coming up there's going to be a lot of self-searching there in denver but this is an opponent that they very nearly beat last season it's the opponent they've been playing for it was the blocked field goal is the only reason they lost i expect you know and that was bonus is like really best game to that point in his career that game he played against denver last year so i'm expecting an impassioned performance again i like denver to win i do i think the defensive matchup is really really good for them like you said it is good for them i'd so hard for me yeah i have faith in payton even without dobbins i do have faith in pay to figure some things out all right so many splits i love it a lot of close games fun week fun week yeah looking at some of these lines um okay yeah right so it's chiefs by four in denver that's pretty high yep i guess that brocco's offense at this point people are just having a really hard time uh okay eagles lions sunday night football banger absolute banger um i'm on the eagles so i will go first here um boop boop boop boop okay a couple things i think this i'm gonna focus on the eagles offense i think that the six offensive line under center stuff works in this game so i stick with it i I know it didn't work against Green Bay.

1:25:53Ben Solak:The Lions defense, if you put big bodies in the field, we'll match it with a linebacker. Play action has to be a big part of the plan here. So that's an important thing for the Eagles offense. Stick with it. And the other thing is you got to be prepared for Kelvin Shepard to mix it up. There's this Lions defense plays a ton of man coverage, et cetera. Kelvin Shepard is one of the smartest young defensive play callers in football. He has watched the same Eagles offensive tape as the rest of us. I would not be surprised if we see some serious tendency breakers on the part of their defense. We're going to see a bunch of simulate.

1:26:30Ben Solak:We're going to see the zone blitzes. We're going to see the Sims. We're going to see, similar to Green Bay, the split safety looks. You cannot come into this game and expect just simple man coverage and man blitzes. they have to be prepared to face a different style of defense from what we've seen so far from detroit so it's it's right off my notes right where it's just this is the kelvin shepherd game where shepherd had like when he when he had the game against the ravens he clearly walked out and said this is a unique offense this is how i'm going to deal with it we have our stuff we have we do against the commanders and the bangles and the browns but this is what we are going to do here in this game against baltimore i highly expect the same thing there's no defense coordinator in the world who did not spend time preparing for the super bowl champions when they're on their schedule right so this i think is going to be right much more bespoke especially because that it's such an obvious move for the eagles okay you like to be a base team we like to be six off at the line we like to be 12 personnel uh you know and and be a run heavy team terry and arnold against davante smith like it doesn't take a genius to figure out that that's the way we're going to go so i expect to see a lot of cloud i expect to see a lot of too high coverage the linebackers are much better in zone than they've been in years past jack campbell has improved in that regard it's alexans alone he has some strength there and we know that jalen does not does not like to see changing pictures of the snap and does not like to see zone coverage right uh it's it's weird because sometimes teams have the tools for that and it feels like they should be the move and then they don't do it i i maybe shepherd walks out and decides to be right six in the pressure and cover one and play man free behind and he just doesn't fear aj brown but i don't know he seems too sharp for that for me uh i don't need to give you the eagles numbers against span versus we all know uh you don't play me on coverage against aj brown it's pretty pretty clear um but yeah again i actually think for from uh like you look at the stuff that has worked for philadelphia against those looks when they hit it by the way the play action pass to davante and the Packers game.

1:28:30Ben Solak:Mostly bad, obviously, offensively. You think about Goddard being a potential answer for them over the middle of the field. They've been listening to you on Goddard's slide routes, man. Since you said on the pod three or four weeks ago, it's just the only thing they run on Blacks and Dallas. It's so annoying. No, but I love Devontae as an answer to that over the middle of the field is big. Yeah, that in-game chess match between the defensive coaching staff in the in the offensive part of Philadelphia is going to be huge in this one just because of Shepard and because of the Lions defense is also just really really sound against the run so I think you can't bang your head into the wall too much um but you have to have the flexibility to where like if they if they come out and they're like actually we're gonna seed this on the ground you got to be comfortable doing that um the Eagles often I actually have a of or evil defense pardon me i'm actually kind of interested in similarly from the perspective of fangio if he changes things up a little bit against detroit because a lot of what the so the eagles defense is perfectly calibrated to beat the eagles offense hilariously but um i actually think detroit if they come out and play the way that they play detroit's can just be like cool we're just gonna run it and we're not green bay yeah like so what are your thoughts about that side of the boy with uh with dan campbell yeah which it's funny because campbell's first game on the mic and it was their first game with a pass rate over expectation in this game with positive pass rate where yeah really campbell loves to like you know in front of the media and then he walks out there just calls the nerdiest game in history right 51 play action rates at 10th highest of golf's career they had a 57 motion at the snap rates the highest they've had in the last there's the second highest in like campbell's entire tenure there in detroit like he does all the nerdy stuff it's so cool so they played a ton of 11 personnel yeah again that was like the whole like i love kalief raymond i need to get him on the field thing that was very interesting to me okay but let me throw this out there you might see that against philadelphia get the third we want to get the third corner out there we want to attack him which green bay for some reasons like no cool we're gonna throw a quinion mitchell the most of anyone sorry i not trying to turn this into another complaint christian watson wakes up at 2 30 a.m in a cold sweat with queen and mitchell on his mind dude so from the playoff game to this game holy smokes i've no idea why they're doing it to the kid it's not a good matchup hey guys uh nfl don't throw a 27 yeah the eagles are desperately they're like just don't like we everybody knows what anyways whatever my point is first team all pro queenian by the way this season is unbelievable he's been so good um i i would be interested in seeing if detroit says cool we're gonna go 11 we trust our offensive line to win on the ground from those spread looks and we also want the ability to attack your weakest player which is yeah dory jackson now the first the first thing there to me is the hook like that's like my key for the game looking at this from the detroit's perspective you said trust the offensive line on the ground you gotta protect the guards in this game right This is where, like, you know, with...

1:31:40Ben Solak:It's a good point. It's a good point. You have, excuse me, Christian Mahogany down for the year. So Kaede with Sika takes over at the left guard spot. You have Tate Ratledge, who's been, I think, up and down at the right guard spot. Graham Glasgow got banged up, was able to come back in the game. Tristan Colon took some snaps. Penny Sewell got banged up in this game. And so the Lions' offensive line, from a talent perspective, is lower than it was. They've got a backup in there for Mahogany. And then also some of the starters are banged up, right? We're getting to that point in the season where injuries start to accumulate.

1:32:06Eagles' defensive front, right? which Jalen Carter had a rough September, did not have a good start to the season, did not seem like he was sharp. Eagles defense up front. Yeah, we are. I don't know if Jalen Phillips got everybody hyped for what it is, but Davis is having a career year. Carter looks like he did back half of the season. Obviously, Mauro Jomo, big highlight play for him, but he's been playing great all season. He's put up Milton Williams' numbers. This is what they had. And now you have Jalen Phillips and Nolan Smith back. If you walk into this as Detroit and you say, well, obviously we're going to do the thing where we win the offensive trenches and allows the pace and tempo gets our play action game.

1:32:38I am not as convinced about that as I often am for the Detroit Lions. And so this, you know, I would like to find some more creative ways to run the football besides like we just inside zone and kill you. Cause I don't think the interior is able to do that against this front.

1:32:53Ben Solak:The Eagles typically just send four, but the play where a Dean came right. And it was Phillips was chipped. So Dean was able to come to the A gap. I guarantee you we see that in this game. And we talked about the Shepherds using the cross dog blitzes to get Gibbs in protection. I would not be surprised if we actually see Vic Fangio borrow from that a well because internal pressure is the name of the game against Detroit. Every Lions game now comes down to can you find, we talked about the guards, can you find a way to go after the guards? and as Detroit did, or, yeah, Detroit. I'm sorry, Minnesota.

1:33:33Ben Solak:I said Minnesota. I thought you were talking about the Vikings. I was going to let you get there. I was making up the teams. Okay, sorry. Minnesota used the crosstalk blitzes on Detroit, kept Gibson as a pass protector, hunted him. Fangio, I would not be surprised if we see that. It is so key for them to stop, to play the pass on play action when they're capable of, because that's the way that I think Detroit could take advantage of them, uh, with those Eagles backers. So I, yeah, it's. Yeah. I would want to, I would want to send bond, not Dean. Cause bond's having a little bit of a old man year in coverage right now.

1:34:08Uh, just from a explosiveness perspective, play a lot of games last year. Zach bond did a lot of snaps. Um, so I want Dean a little bit more in space. Uh, but I agree with you on, on finding ways to get him there and just send the pressure. The Eagles are not as fast of a team in the second and the third level as they like to be right read blind, good chip, even a Kobe Dean, like he's quick, but he's not long speed. So this is a, it's a good misdirection day. It's a good James Williams, throw the ball fast. We're going to get to the fall, the ball fast game. See if you can get them in space a little bit.

1:34:35Ben Solak:If you had asked me about this game before Monday night football, I would have taken the lions. I am now taking Philly purely because of what I saw from the Eagles defense in that game. Yeah. And the Eagles defensive line in particular, I, as much as I think Calvin shopper is brilliant. And I also, I think he's going to do the things we're talked about. That's playing left-handed a little bit. It's not what Detroit measures in, right? Like, so there's also that aspect as well, even though, even if he has a great game plan, you know, whenever you're asking a team to completely change their tendencies, that can be an issue.

1:35:07Yeah, I, this was one of the games I wasn't sure I'm coming in. I think I also lean Eagles. Worth noting, it is a golf with no roof, potentially in the cold game, right? Golf in his career, indoors, 68 % completion rate. Outdoors, 64 % completion rate. Outdoors in 50 degrees or cooler, 60 % completion rate. small hands golf the Cali boy this is you know it's it's a legitimate thing and so I lean Eagles I will say that there's a little part of me that thinks Dan Campbell is just the best coach in football and that with him on the mic is like is a such a substantial improvement over John Morton that we're gonna see that borne out in like an insane second half of the season for the Lions and so big big big test for uh for old Sean McVay with the glasses Dan Campbell excited to see it

1:35:47Ben Solak:I mean, I like the Lions offense better than the Eagles defense. Generally, it's just the Eagles offense. Okay, real quick. We don't spend a lot of time on Monday Night Football. It is a stinker. Cowboys at Raiders. This is you. What you got? Yeah, the name of the game here is the pressure for the Cowboys, right? Cowboys are 32nd in defensive success rate, 31st knee paper drive. However, they are 10th in team pressure rate as a defense. What they do well is get it for the passer. And obviously, that has been without Quentin Williams. Now you get potentially the best penetration defensive tackle in football when he's at his peak joining the pass rush.

1:36:22Everybody can move it on the Cowboys. But Geno's been terrible against pressure this year, right? 33 % sack raise, the worst in football, 6.3 % interception rate, which is 26th of 41 quarterbacks. Not good at relocating right now. You know, ends up getting sacked. He's not an explosive mover. And then, you know, they don't really have good isolation receivers. So it's like you can pick your one-on-ones and rip off explosive plays. You get drops. You get bad routes. And, you know, with no Jacoby Myers, like it's hard to find the safety valve, especially if you're able to keep Brock in a protection.

1:36:48And so to me, it's just, you know, get the ball out fast enough against the pressure or does that the pressure get to him? That kind of decides it on the offensive side of the ball for the Raiders. It's the only way they hang in this one. So I like the Cowboys.

1:36:57Ben Solak:Yeah. The Raiders offensive line is bad. And her was the worst. Who's who's worse. The charges are the Raiders. Chargers, the charge, like chargers, chargers. I offend me deeply. Yeah. Yeah. It's pretty bad. The Ravens defense has quietly been playing way above. I actually think that they've been pretty solid and they're decent against the run, but I just don't like these DBs against these Dallas receivers. I think we see a come in. It's Dallas, it's in Vegas, it's not somewhere. I think he'll be able to attack them. Potentially DeMarvian Overshown back for this game. He's been activated to practice, which is as far as linebacker improvement goes, it's from a zero to a 10.

1:37:39And then also Savon Revell, who is the rookie corner they selected. First career start for rookie corner. Is it going to be great? Probably not. It's better than what you got in the field right now.

1:37:50Ben Solak:He's playing. Yeah. Talk your leg. Come on. All right. That's it for this week. We're both on the Cowboys end. Ben, very excited for these games. Folks can check out Ben's work at ESPN.com. Follow him everywhere. Benjamin Solak, pretty much everywhere. And I'll be back next week to talk about... we'll be quick on Monday Night Football next week with Dominique. Let's spend more time talking about other stuff. And thank you as always to the folks at Omaha Productions, Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Taschen, who make this show. Also check out Viewer Discretion, my podcast with David Dennis Jr., where we are still covering Married at First Sight.

1:38:27Ben Solak:I want to talk about the show Pluribus, which is amazing. And then we're going to do Stranger Things. All right. See you guys on Tuesday.

1:38:57We'll be right back.

1:39:09Varys 18+.

From the publisher

It’s NFL Week 11!

Ben Solak is back as we break down every matchup from Thursday night through Monday night.

We dive into the biggest storylines, the key on-field battles that will shape each game, and of course—our picks for the week.

(0:00) Welcome To The Mina Kimes Show Featuring Lenny!

(1:15) Jets @ Patriots Preview

(7:25) Commanders @ Dolphins Preview

(11:20) Panthers @ Falcons Preview

(18:30) Buccaneers @ Bills Preview

(29:48) Texans @ Titans Preview

(32:35) Packers @ Giants Preview

(35:40) Bengals @ Steelers Preview

39:02) Bears @ Vikings Preview

(47:05) Chargers @ Jaguars Preview

(50:45) Seahawks @ Rams Preview

(1:08:50) 49ers @ Cardinals Preview

(1:12:07) Ravens @ Browns Preview

(1:14:54) Chiefs @ Broncos Preview

(1:22:08) Lions @ Eagles Preview

(1:32:40) Cowboys @ Raiders Preview

(1:34:35) See you next time!
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