Nix and Match: The Broncos, Steelers and other Week 15 Winners

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0:30Welcome back to the Minikime Show featuring Lenny. Penultimate Monday Night Football Recap Edition. No, that's wrong. What comes before penultimate? Yeah, well, penultimate is second to last, right? Right. There's two more Monday nights. Well, all right. I'm good at Roman Numerals. You Super Bowl, give me a Super Bowl. Are you good at that? Oh, yeah, I know. Before, after, add, subtract, XVI's. I'm down with the Roman Numerals, but I don't know. L's and whatnot. I don't know about penultimate. I know ultimate, penultimate. There's more. Well, this is the third to last one. We're going to talk about Monday Night Football.

1:06Not for too long, as I'm sure people want to hear, the exhaustive breakdown of the Miami Dolphins. We'll talk about the Steelers are, of course, a playoff contender. I think there's more to talk about there. The Dolphins, we kind of have to talk about what comes next. Winners and woofs this weekend. We're finally going to pay Bo Nix the credit he deserves. He was awesome, man. We're talking about the Chiefs, Packers, spoiler alert, and one other team. I'll leave that other team a mystery. Jags. Let's start with the Steelers. Okay, the Jags. The Jags team. I mean, the last three weeks has been some of my favorite to watch.

1:46The Steelers dominated Miami. Didn't look dominant through one and a half quarters. Actually, I was going back and watching all of the runs, And with five minutes left in the first half, because I was watching to see, like, when did they stop running? Because it felt like they were running the ball fine, as we expected. It was zero to zero, five minutes left in the first half. And the Steelers hit, I think it was Patrick Queen who blitzed. He blitzed to run. They were in the pistol. And that was kind of when things sort of went sideways. So there's two things, I think, with the Steelers' offense.

2:22We're now coming off of two weeks in a row where Aaron Rodgers has played quite well. albeit this was more similar. I think last week felt like more the aberration where he was like playing, making outside structure, throwing downfield. This to me felt like the perfect blueprint for a good Aaron Rodgers game in 2025, which is to say you run the ball well, ball comes out quick, they're able to get yards after the catch, they got 171, third of most of any team this week, and then he hits just a handful of throws over the middle of the field. And that's what happened. Yeah. I mean, the arm strength is still there.

3:02I think that was one of the big takeaways. Not that we didn't see it earlier in the season, but like we saw that touchdown to DK Metcalf was incredible play by Metcalf for the run after the catch, but also the throw that you would argue is the ill-advised throw for just about anyone else. But like you could fit it into that tiny window before like the, the lurking kind of hole player safety got there. But, I mean, it's what you imagine when you got Aaron Rodgers. It's like we can protect him in many ways. We're not going to not just protect him as far as pass rush, but, like, protect him as far as, like, defense playing well.

3:35And we're not going to ask a whole bunch out of you, but you're going to give us the special throws every now and then. The problem is most of the playoff teams aren't the Dolphins caliber, and they also aren't, like, going to freeze up in the cold the way that the Dolphins have kind of a track record of doing. Yeah, so like on the season, Pittsburgh's offense right now is 12th and run DVOA, 23rd in passing. Before the last two weeks, Aaron Rodgers is probably near the bottom of the NFL in success rate. He's not really pushing that on on field a lot. Even in this game, it was like a 3.3 yard average at the target.

4:11But that's not really what's required. I feel like every Dolphins game or probably Steelers game from now into the playoffs, assuming they're there, is basically going to come down to are you against are you going up against a defense that can be physical and bring you down? Right. Like it felt like so many times, especially in the second half, the Dolphins just could not bring them down. Obviously, the big DK play, but there are multiple even like short yard short completions that turned into intermediate ones because of the tackling. And I think that's kind of it. Like, do I think, you know, Aaron Rodgers can win a playoff game?

4:46Yeah, if they're going up against a team that can't tackle him. So I guess my question for you then is, do you look around the AFC and look at the contenders and think there are defenses, obviously the Texans and the Broncos, other than that, that would really give them trouble? Yeah, I mean, I think it also, like, depends on the offense that they're going to be facing and, like, how much pressure you put on your team to score. because I think Mike Tomlin pre-Aaron Rodgers and certainly this year with Aaron Rodgers, that team is completely comfortable with being in a low-scoring game and waiting until the fourth quarter and seeing what plays they can make in the fourth quarter, be it defensively or offensively, or what luck will go their way.

5:24So if they're forced into a situation where they have to ask Aaron Rodgers to attack downfield, ask Aaron Rodgers to create and buy time because they're down by a couple of scores early, that's also a situation where I don't even think the defense has to be that great but it's going to pull out a different version of this still is offense one that i don't think anybody in pittsburgh wants to see they have uh the lions and the browns remaining on their schedule um they're actually you know they beat the the browns 23 to 9 earlier in the year and um it was again they're all the same all the good came to the same like it was it was kind of similar to what you saw last night um I thought the we talked about the protection I think the offensive line played really well um I know it was like a fourth string or third string left tackle um you know Bradley Chubbs no slap cook is his name and I thought Rogers for the obviously it's assisted by how fast he throws the football but I thought for the most part he looked decently comfortable back there when is Washington going to stop messing around and go ahead and play tackle i just go ahead and play tackle and make yourself 30 million dollars a year like being a big ass um they're tight in washington yeah no no i was just saying there was one game there's one point in the game where somebody had to tackle him it was i think like one of the dolphins corners or something this is it may be unpopular take generally it's like i get it when he gets the ball it's fun and funny and whatever but like Like, I don't think he's that great of a tight end.

6:59And I think he's athletic and big as hell. It would be an incredible tackle, which is more valuable. Like, it's a dumb off-the-wall tangent that is not worth discussing. But, like, with that athleticism, he would be an amazing tackle. Flipping it to the Steelers' defense, because this is one of their better performances, obviously. Did this to you, was there anything about this performance, we're going to talk about the Dolphins' side, that really impressed you. Like, for example, you know, I mean, we came into this, I think, everybody was talking about how good the Dolphins were running the ball, and it was kind of a weird one because they had to move off of that because of the game script, so it ended up, I think, not being maybe tested in the way that I thought it could have been going into this.

7:46It felt like also Tua was in third down a lot, and he was just awful. But, I mean, what did you make of the Steelers' defensive performance? Yeah, I mean, it's hard to argue with the final result. However, I think I had this same experience when I went back to watch the Ravens defense, that I felt less good about how great the Ravens played when I watched how poorly I thought the Bengals played. So this is not the exact same situation. However, I think that the Dolphins' rushing attack wasn't really stopped, to your point. But also the way that the Dolphins want to run the ball is very different than the way that we've seen the Steelers be punished.

8:28It's like the Bills are like a no nonsense. We're going to run it in your face. And the Dolphins are a lot about scheme, athleticism, speed, movement, getting leverage and like a little bit of tricks, which is fine. It's a credit to them and their coaches to have and their ability to execute. but that's not the question that I have about the Steelers run defense. My question is when you see the Bills again, are you going to be able to stop them from pushing you backwards? And I didn't see them show that they could do that. Yeah, I think my biggest error looking at this one was thinking that the Dolphins run game could do both.

9:07Like, you know, we talked about it. It's very schemed up. They do a lot of – they started the game with an incredible play where they put, and it was a play-action pass, but they put Brunskill in motion. I mean, they do all kinds of just tomfoolery. But I also felt like they also were winning on the offensive line, right? Like, I've been watching this offense team. I felt like they were finally getting pushed and were starting to play the kind of physical football that everybody has felt they haven't for the last year, that they've been criticized for being soft. And this was just such a letdown.

9:44Again, they had to get away from the run, no doubt. But, like, it did feel like the run game, I think A-Chan had, like, a 33 % success rate. And, again, like, you know, by the second half it was mostly move. But it did feel like, for the most part, like, the Steelers were still the more physical team. And offensively and defensively, that was kind of the story of the game. Dolphins is not beating the allegations, I guess. And I don't know. I thought maybe that would be different. And there was some unsuccessful early down runs that led to those third downs. I mean, before garbage time, the Dolphins had six third downs, two sacks, one TFL, one completion.

10:27I mean, it was pretty brutal watching them. The Steelers, I thought, also another thing I want to mention, though, I think to their credit, they switched up their game plan a little bit. They played way a ton of split safety, which is the right way to play Miami. And I felt like they had a good beat. And as most teams do on the in breakers that Miami wants to throw. Right. Tua made some very poor decisions. We'll talk about him in a second. But like, I don't know. I like I'm thinking about the Steelers team now going into the playoffs and thinking about who am I going to pick them against. Right.

11:02Like, who would I feel good about them against? And I don't want to overstate this performance because I do think a lot of it had to do with Miami. But it does feel like at least there's something of an identity that might give certain competition trouble. Yeah. I mean, have you gone through and I mean, you don't have to make that pick now, but like it seems like they might be able to get the Chargers, which I think that's one of the better matchups for them. if we're looking at this. Obviously, the Bills are a pretty bad matchup for them as far as that running attack bashing them. But I guess, and with Josh Allen on the other side, I think that's a tough matchup.

11:39I don't know. The Patriots don't run the ball crazy well and have offensive line injuries, so maybe that's a good matchup. Have you given thought to what the good matchups would be? And would one playoff win get the fans off of Tomlin's back? They make it seem like if he had won, things would be different. I actually don't think that they're going to get off his back if he pulls, like if he knocks off the Chargers. Yeah. So looking at this from the perspective of the Steelers' offense first and which defenses, I don't think the Broncos is, you know, I don't think they'll success. The Texans, no.

12:11The Bills, I think that the Bills can just control the football on the other side in that one. But, you know, I think we'll see a similar result. So, yeah, you mentioned the Chargers. Chargers' defense is very good at just keeping things in. They're a very good tackling team. So I think that would cause them some troubles, even if there is some vulnerability there versus the run. The Jags are kind of a wild card because they can get after the quarterback. The Patriots, I think they can move the ball in New England. So there's a couple teams in there where they can have some success. And then defensively, yeah, I mean, the Bills have the dominant run game.

12:48I like Sean Payton versus the Steelers defensively. I just think that they'll find answers. I mean, the way Trevor Lawrence is playing, all the play action, we're going to talk about him. The Chargers are vulnerable because of the offensive line. So I guess L.A. is probably, as we've talked about it, and that would be right now the 4-5 matchup. Yep. I saw that. Got excited for them, for the Steelers, assuming they'll hold off the Ravens. The Dolphins. Okay, so there's only one conversation that everybody's having today, right, which is can they move off of Tua? He was awful. I think what's so disheartening is just how much worse he's gotten, too.

13:30I've never been a big Tua person, obviously, and waged my fair share of internet battles during his heyday. But even that said, it does feel like we have seen some pretty significant decline. I mean, the pick was so bad, the first one. with the corn i i don't know like what i i mean the pick was bad i'll try to defend it the best way i can which you can't really like the they only got two people out in the route and they were playing against the zone situation so like the scheme whatever they were anticipating maybe they were anticipating a blitz to get a two-man route or anticipating some sort of man or cover three where maybe a seven cut might or a corner route might work but once you see that that's not working you got to throw it to it took a while for the check down to get out but you got to throw it to the check down or throw it at someone's feet and then I think what made it even uglier was it felt like he didn't have the arm strength to throw to that portion of the field and I think that's that's something that's kind of always been an issue with him is like he doesn't seem sometimes seem to have an awareness of his own physical limitations and making some of these throws like a guy who I think is really good at that is Purdy I think in terms of like evaluating can I make this throw he attacks downfield when he believes he can it's part of the reason why he's a good deep ball thrower is that he doesn't have a cannon but he knows that and I think with Tua it's just been there's so many points his career where we're like you know you're not oh no and he throws it anyways um it was a weird yet to your point that it was only two men uh looked like he wanted to go to the right it wasn't you know it was covered up went to the left didn't get back to the check down on the right but i mean he was just looking at the corner like i just don't and then it was just like also like it felt like the ball fell from a cloud like it just was like a floating thing where it's like all right it's as if he didn't recognize the coverage it's like even if you're going to throw into that coverage it wasn't much to read it's a cloud situation You have to hit that hole.

15:40If you're going to try to hit that hole, rip it. Yeah. And it just was like he tried to drop it in there when there was no one there to even slow Asante down from going to pick it off. It was rough. We needed J.J. McCarthy in that moment. Okay, so. Gritty man. They really can't cut him. So, okay. It's 99 or something, right? It's 99 post-June 1st. I believe it would be down to$54 million if they pick up the option. So it would be similar to the Russell Wilson move in Denver. But you keep him, the post-June 1st cut, you keep him, it costs about the same. I think – so you look at Russell Wilson and you think, like, well, that worked out for Denver, right, who we're going to talk about.

16:42Such a unique situation because there were – I think that's something you have to evaluate if you're Miami. It's like, okay, if we do keep him this year – and then after this year, they can cut him. You're going to bring in competition, obviously. Right. Do you feel like, you know, similar to Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, that he will accept being a$56 million backup? How is that going to go? Because he doesn't seem like the type. Yeah, I'm surprised that that's even something that you think you have to consider at this point, honestly. Like, I think you want to manage, obviously, everybody deserves respect.

17:24You want to manage the emotions of players, but like there are some players who play poorly enough that they deserve to be benched. But you have to be careful how you do it because you have an expectation that they'll be back at some point or they'll have some value to the team. And this is across any position. But when it feels like you're out on a guy, I guess maybe you want him to be a backup maybe or something. And so you want him to still be mentally engaged. But if you are not planning on extending him, then I get why you wouldn't want to cut him, but I don't get why you would be concerned about like how he's going to take it.

18:06Yeah. I think, you know, Kirk is a good example, you know, and I, you know, they're very limited, obviously from a cap perspective, they can release Tyreek Hill and gain about looks like$20 million. He's got a gigantic cap hit this year. But it's a rebuilding. Okay, let's look at it this way. Okay, so we assume we're keeping Tua. He's going to just be the backup. Can this be a good situation for a young quarterback? Because the offensive line has improved a lot. Run game, obviously, things got out of control last night. I still believe in it. I still believe in the improvement, both from just all across the board.

18:51probably need to add if you cut Tyreek Hill at the receiver position, but it's not a terrible group. And you have Mike McDaniel, who I think is a good play caller. Like I could see a world in which they're, if they find the right, I don't know. That's the other interesting thing. Like what kind of quarterback would you want? I think it's really interesting, but assuming they keep McDaniel, they could be feisty on offense. So I think McDaniel deserves some credit. And I think some people, like I was doing this conversation earlier today and people kind of, wanted me to temper my appreciation for Mike McDaniel, but I think we should appreciate what he has made out of these situations.

19:27And I think having a team that can bounce back from really bad starts, like that speaks to him having offenses that we talked about this early in his career was like, he had an opening move, which was those quick anticipation in breaking routes and the big explosive run games. The big challenge, I think for like these, offensive gurus is what's next like can you adapt and he's showing an ability to adapt he's showing an ability to not lose a locker room like what was i remember at one point it felt like they had the darkest building in all of the league i forgot what loss it was but it felt like their team quit and we all did a week of tv where everyone was like overreacting and saying it was done and it was having player there was like multiple players only meetings or something right yeah yeah that And so the thing is, like, we know they had a players meeting and then there was some disagreement about whether it was officially a meeting and who came to the meeting and did to a call.

20:26And so we build up a coach's resume by their playoff wins in their Super Bowls and all that other stuff. But these are also like things to put on a resume to appreciate a coach. So it's a long roundabout way of saying like, yeah, that's not a bad place for a quarterback when you have a coach who I think can manufacture a running game in a way and who also like can work around limitations to get you to do so well that you're you're now stuck with a quarterback that you don't really want. yeah yeah it's I can't think I'm trying to think of like a comparable situation where the team really just could not move on from the quarterback from a cap perspective and also where the quarterback is so clearly now the limiting factor I think that's what's so unusual about this right like we used to watch them and say well Tua has his ups and downs and he's not perfect but the offensive line is so bad he compensates for it now we watch and I don't feel that way I feel that the He is the limiting factor, and defenses all play him in pretty similar ways.

21:37It's unusual, Dominique. I can't think of many teams that have that. It's super rare for a high pick, a high first-round pick, who then gets an extension. And, of course, the extension was debated. We weren't all in on it, but gets an extension. And then this soon afterwards, kind of like the Dias Cass, where it's not even we go through this question thing for quarterbacks for years and years and years like maybe maybe yeah with him it's kind of like no one's out here saying maybe everyone's kind of like ah what you gonna do about that we're talking about russell wilson as the comps for him that's not what we do normally for these type of guys i so yeah i will be if he stays if mcdaniel stays i'm going to be so interested in seeing what kind of quarterback they're like the prototype you know i feel like no mina you think that he's going to be able to get a prototype no but i think or like the the characteristics that he's that's what i mean yeah like you go really in the opposite direction and try to find an athlete or just somebody with like raw because you know you one thing you could do is draft someone kind of raw and let this be let that be their red shirt year yeah i mean you could go that direction i mean i guess that's this is another point about McDaniel is like I guess it's kind of dumb thing to say because you're asking a more interesting question but my my point would be like get the best available guy and then McDaniel will will build a system around that guy's traits but like what are the traits that he would choose like how he would prioritize them I actually don't know the answer to that question yeah right is he from the Shanahan tree where he just wants the point guard.

23:24Just do what I tell you to do. Or is he so, you know, has he turned against that? Not that Tua is exactly that because he's different, but I don't know. Also, if you keep Tua, if they bring in like an arm strength guy, it'd be so mean. Yeah. I mean, didn't they bring – well, I guess Zach Wilson wasn't an intimidating arm strength guy, but they did bring in Zach Wilson who – Still there? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, he's an arm strength guy, and maybe he feels like he can do something around that. Well, that's it for Miami. A wrap on the 2025 season. Lots of big decisions to be made this offseason. You know, there's players who had good seasons on this roster.

24:08I think Troy was talking about the linebackers, Brooks and Dodson, how well that they've played. I think we talked about the run game, but obviously the offensive line, you actually have building blocks now, which is nice. But, of course, big, expensive positions, they've got to find corner, wide receiver, quarterback. All right, we'll be talking about the Steelers, obviously, a lot more because they're very much in the mix. Let's take a quick break, come back, and let's get to the Bo Nix conversation. Get summer going with a Firework Freeze 5-Hour Energy Shot. You get that iconic freezer pop flavor, but with zero sugar and a 5-Hour Energy Boost.

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25:28Download today. No one goes to Hank's for his spreadsheets. They go for a darn good pizza. Lately, though, the shop's been quiet. So Hank decides to bring back the$1 slice. He asks Copilot in Microsoft Excel to look at his sales and costs and help him see if he can afford it. Copilot shows Hank where the money's going and which little extras make the dollar slice work. Now Hank's has a line out the door. Hank makes the pizza. Copilot handles the spreadsheets. Learn more at m365copilot.com slash work. All right, we're back. Bo Nix is my winner this week. Best performance of his NFL career.

26:13did things against the Packers that he's not consistently done as a pro. And that is, you can look at that one of two ways, right? The negative side can be like, well, do it again, aberration. Or the positive side can be like, he's a developing quarterback and maybe he's getting better at certain things. We talked about last week previewing the game, how much better he was against Mann than zone, how he was like 32nd in on target rate throwing over 10 yards in this one it was just like an unending procession of dots downfield uh he made plays inside the pocket where he went 19 for 25 for 233 yards and three touchdowns but he also made some incredibly impressive plays outside of structure um both dramatic ones like the one where he reversed field and hit humphrey or the one where he was faking running out of bounds and found Franklin.

27:10But then also a little play, like just there were a lot of little moments where Green Bay got home and he was able to avoid a rusher, make an off-platform throw. So you really saw that ability. There's just a lot to talk about from this performance. What impressed you the most watching it? The last one is like the little plays. The little plays and the intermediate stuff. It's like I, that is the stuff, the decision making in those moments the accuracy in those moments and i think also against this defense against a very good defense there's so much and you and i've done this before and like in the current like take it sphere it's it's hard to like change your opinion on someone but like it's it feels like once you make a proclamation about a player i feel like i've better at this is like I don't want to root I try not to root to be right about a player being bad is like if I assess or a player's limitations if I assess something about your limitations and I start to see them change there's a little part of me that's kind of like I don't want to be wrong but I think I've gotten a little bit better at being like hey he's gotten better and especially for a young player like Bo Nix who's only in his second year and I want it's one game obviously but it was it was such a rebuke of all the criticisms that I've had of him in this situation that I was like overjoyed I text a bunch of people I think I texted you too but just everyone's like he he's doing it like he's doing all the things and it's the little things that and of course he has to do it once again and do it many more times to be a guy but quarterbacks developing in good situations and it's also like the last thing I'll say is it's kind of a a a bit of the proof of one of my biggest quarterback theories is like get them in a good situation and protect them and they'll develop like yeah they'll they'll get better as long as you surround them with good players and then sooner or later they'll be the great player that you that can lift everyone else up yeah it is a really good situation um I think in ways that maybe I this is why it's so you know you talked about like that feeling like we're not allowed to change or we're not allowed that's such a straw man in ways like oh so long they're not gonna be mad at me because i said a player got better but i think also i i i like praising the offense is not detracting from the game that bonix had i was so impressed with the broncos offense in this the pass catchers were catching every i mean sutton has i feel like been one of the most underrated players in football last year or this year, pardon me.

29:59He really is a true number one in a way that there aren't that many receivers around the NFL who you're like, damn, you can win outside, you can win all three levels, you can probably beat anyone. I truly feel that way. But Franklin, holy smokes, who I liked a lot. People can roll the tape on that as a prospect. He was drafted a lot lower than I thought. But he also has really – some of the catches he made in this game were extremely impressive and difficult. And then the other thing I think, too, watching it that struck me is like, God, and this is something where I have not changed my mind, but Sean Payton is really good at this.

30:38I mean, we know that, obviously. But I think, you know, we talked a lot about going into this game about, like, the zone, some of Bo Nix's struggles versus zone, as opposed to man where he can just pick his matchups, and he's an accurate quarterback, right? But sometimes it felt like zones holding onto the football a little bit too much. The placement isn't perfect. And the Packers play a very zone-heavy defense. So I think watching this one, watching him just basically rip up their zone coverage, I felt like Bo had complete understanding of where space and leverage was in the Packers' defense.

31:13But I also felt like Peyton did a fabulous job of creating one-on-ones against a Green Bay defense that really doesn't want to give them to you. Yeah, I think that Green Bay defense is not – I think they do interesting things with the front, but they don't do a bunch of, like, tricky stuff at the back end, which probably helps Sean Payton. But I think what I – obviously, I agree with everything you said about Sean Payton. But the reason why I walked away from this more impressed with Bo Nix is because while the reads may have been defined and he can anticipate those things, that defense is good.

31:48And the windows were still tight. Yes. And he was hitting them. And they were allowing him to go over the middle of the field, allowing him to target 10 to 20 yards, which is normally places that they want to stay away from. So, yeah, Sean Payton, we're not surprised. He's been doing it for a long time. But next, it was a little bit more surprising that they were just trying to convert third downs. But he's like, before, they're like, nah, we don't need to convert a third down to score a touchdown. Just extremely accurate, you know, in this game. And that's the – I know it's obvious, but like when I was just going back and watching the throws, The ball placement was fantastic.

32:24Yeah, and sometimes, like, earlier in his career, in the pocket, you felt, like, weird. Like, he just kind of felt, he felt, like, jittery, right? Or, like, a little frantic. And I think that's part of the reason why, at times, he struggled throwing downfield. It's not, like, an arm talent thing. But he looked so calm in the Broncos' pocket in this, even with Michael Parsons, like, whizzing by him half the time before he got hurt. And, yeah, the athleticism, which we started this talking about. It is real, and it is going to be a factor. in the postseason, right? Because they're going to go against, you know, let's say they play the Texans.