Nix Degrees of Separation: An AFC West Preview

36:15Like it's not that crazy of a, if then statement to me, the defense fourth and DVO way. I think I had them fifth or something on my top 10 defenses pod. Mostly returns. Everyone outside of Franklin Myers, who is a good player. So that's not nothing. But for the most part, they're running it back. however Jonathan Cooper who was part of that very good four man rush opposite I think probably second impressions behind Zach Allen and obviously Benito unknown status I've talked about this a lot I feel like it's kind of like flying under the radar a little bit when people are like the Broncos defense is good like the pass rush is like their second best edge is potentially facing a suspension so I do think it is worth I do think this will be good even if he's to miss any amount of time.

37:13Uh but as he should frankly if you go look it up but I I think it's worth talking about the edge depth because it's a lot of unknowns dude like you got bonito and then after Cooper there's a lot of players there's these are defensive tackles look at that just Q Robinson who played a little bit but was kind of part of a rotation at Alabama and played behind some studs so hasn't you know it was kind of limited exposure there um let's see like up to Jonah Ellis Jonah Ellis who's kind of like an off-ball linebacker hybrid yeah and then guys I've truly never heard of like Dondre Tillman is second behind like Nick Bonita like I don't know who that is so i guess yeah like does that concern you or i mean because this defense that blitzed a lot but was it's an interesting contrast with kansas city which i talked about earlier because incredibly effective blitzing and then when you take out blitzes also incredibly effective which i think is part of what made the blitzes so effective is that the four-man rush was devastating but what if the four-man rush isn't devastating can you play as much man coverage as they did last year are you like obviously the secondary is awesome so i think that helps a lot but do you have any concerns yeah i think the depth up front is definitely taking a big hit and like that was with nick benito being one of the best edges in the league and like you just never know if like you can keep that up as well like i'm assuming that's gonna gonna work out but you just never know uh they lead the nfl man coverage like i think it was like 55 like most of the leagues like at 30 like they are like one of the outlier defenses and obviously you can win with four uh you got sirtan like things could uh it gets really easy to play man coverage at that rate what i thought was interesting about the broncos was when they weren't in man coverage so keep in mind they don't run that much zone compared to the rest of the league they do have the best success rate sack rate and epa per play when they're in zone coverage like their side hustle they're like the best in the nfl at um sirtan wasn't healthy the whole season last year so like maybe you know that goes up and like you can if we are losing cooper for a little bit of the season then uh maybe that's more kind of washes itself out.

39:27Their secondary is really good. They still got like a first round corner on the bench. Their safety is returning. Linebackers are returning. It's like literally just the edge depth. It's crazy that they drafted Jade Barron in the first round. And Jaquan McMillan said, psych, I'm a top 10 nickel. He was actually, I look at this up, fourth in success rate in coverage amongst corners last year. Obviously he gets to play in a very good group, but like it's not easy to play with Pat Sertan right like that's in some way like that's the funny thing about playing with an elite corner is you know you're going to get targeted a lot and Riley Moss obviously bore the brunt of that but uh McMillan was fabulous um and he was fun too because I remember when he first cracked the rotation it was like wow this is a really fun player he's kind of got a lot of juice he gets his hands on the football but I think he has continued to develop into a very good corner and now they've got this like hilarious not hilarious but like this weird problem, which is like, how do we even get Baron on the field?

40:23It's a funny one for Denver. Good problem to have. Good problem to have. I thought they were going to trade McMillan. I mean, it just made sense or trade Riley Moss. But Riley Moss is a good player too. Like you said, very battle tested when you're not Patrick Sertan and you got to be the other corner. Like they're going to throw the ball at you a ton there. So yeah, it's kind of like one of those wheels. If they can really win with four, then obviously the man coverage on the back is going to be a little bit easier. So if that takes a step back, then maybe Riley Moss gets a little bit more exposed and stuff.

40:56But they got good depth in the back seven. The other thing I'll say, final thing about the Broncos from a complementary football perspective as we talk about the pass rush, is if the offense improves, as I think it's obvious, we think it will, you get leads, and the run defense is paramount. And by the way, they have an incredible run defense as well. So I DJ Jones, he's there's like a football hipster pathion of players that just like every NFL dork loves. And I feel like EJ Jones, who do we talk about when we talked about the Chiefs Otago? Yeah. OK, well, but Jones is up there. It's like they got DJ Jones.

41:37I was like in San Francisco is the same way. So they're just, Zach Allen maybe takes a little bit of a step back as he gets older in terms of run defense, but I still think it's a very good run defense. I'm not worried about the Broncos defense. I know I started with the Cooper stuff just because I do think it is kind of a sneaky big thing, but I think the offense will mitigate, help mitigate any issues there. All right. Speaking of the offense potentially mitigating issues, let's take a quick break, come back and talk about the Chargers offense. Woo. Save$2 when you buy two cans of Superior Products Coverall Tire Dressing.

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44:09All right, we're back. The Chargers offense. Is the hype too much? Is it too hot? Because this has got to be the most hyped offense in the offseason, right? Because of Mike McDaniel. I mean, that's every year it feels like the most hyped offense. I will say this. I'm very excited about it. There are some things that they do have to figure out. there's a lot of new pieces there and you know sometimes the second year is when we see like the tree breakout and then you do go back to the stats you're like what's the starting point that we're working with they were 26 in epa per play last year 23rd and passing epa per play and then same thing with uh rushing at 23rd overalls like the starting point was pretty bad i'm obviously losing both your tackles and all the other nonsense that herbert was dealing with and the interior it's all new for a reason um but like the starting point we do have to remember it's like this was a pretty dysfunctional offense this last year so a lot of things have to go right to be a top five offense and then you do look at the history like whenever a shanahan tree play caller has like a legit guy at quarterback like they throw for like 45 touchdowns a year it's like burrow matt ryan the rogers seasons with before obviously stafford most most recently baker mayfield uh with like liam cohen went absolutely crazy it's like the trend here is like offenses go burr when it's a Shanahan guy and a really strong quarterback.

45:28So there's definitely upside here. As far as last year's disaster, just to kind of get into that for a second, because, you know, whenever we do the Justin Herbert conversation and people talk about making excuses for him and whatnot, I was looking up last year because last year the offense, both passing contact and the run game were statistically pretty bad. When Herbert threw the ball in under two and a half seconds, he was top 10 quarterback, no matter how you slice it, seventh and success rate, 10th in EPA, et cetera. When it was over two and a half seconds, everything plummeted to bottom 10.

46:00That's not a Justin Herbert stack. No, that's indicative of the fact that the charges offensive line at times felt like a jailbreak on every other play, particularly up the middle. And that is the one thing I will say to throw a little bit of cold water on, on some of this. The tackles are back, but. We sure about these guards. We sure about these guards. I mean, to be honest, it's a very competent center. And I think McDaniel scheme does cover up interior offensive line play to some degree. We'll talk about that. But like. Cole strange. I guess Jake Slaughter maybe is going to play guard in the NFL for the first time.

46:37That's the one that it's the slaughter thing like Cole strange. Sure. Like one of your guards has to be cold strange. I totally get it. And we were talking about a rookie player playing out of position. And I went back and like looked at my my notes on on slaughter and great for the wide zone scheme can get out in space and stuff problem with anchoring the problem with transitioning from center to guard is at guard you have to win one-on-ones and pass protection where like you have to anchor where at center there's a lot fewer snaps was one-on-one when you're just getting walked back so i think that's going to be a potential issue now if you're between you know slater and be oddage then you have like a decent chance here but just in general for whatever it is like there's been way too many free rushers with herbert so i think that herbert's a very smart player but for whatever reason the scheme guys up front making mistakes herbert being surprised whatever it is there's been too many free rushers and then with the dolphins they kind of live on the edges with some of these things where they're willing to have a free rusher because that opens up this layered throw and i think herbert's going to be able to do it i saw um in like otas and in mini camp they changed up his shock and footwork so his other foot is in the front that means that they can get the quick the quick game going a little bit so i think there's there's a lot of moving pieces here it all makes sense to me like this is like the direction they should be going but you do have to nail all these things like right away in this kind of loaded divisions like that that's where i'm optimistic i might be even like more optimistic in 2027 and like i want to draft these guys in 2026 yeah it might look better at the end of the year than it does at the beginning because you're right there's a lot of moving pieces it's a pretty significant change.

48:17I do want to go back to something I said, which is like McDaniel kind of covers up the guards to some degree. And I do think the emphasis on let's bring in a center and we have good tackles. You know, I think the goal here is to just keep Herbert out of obvious drop back situations and win on early downs. And I think what McDaniel does in the run game, we can talk about what he does in the past game and what it means for the skill players, which I also think is kind of interesting uh is he he is when you watch the dolphins offense it's funny by the way i've been reading interviews and uh like um dominie foxworth had an interview with john harbaugh and i think i saw someone else i think it was ben johnson everybody's watching the mike medaniel run game now from 2026 how could he not um it's just so much bullshit and it's not hey man go win right it's so much it's actually it's funny because like too he is able through his primarily i would say the use of motions more than anything able to create the illusion of running the football or threatening to run the football when there isn't like it's so obvious they're not going to run the it is really remarkable the way he creates conflict i just did kind of like over use over generalize um conflict run past conflict conflict from a leverage perspective conflict from communication all of it so all of which is to say yes i don't love the guards but when i consider the fact that they also emphasized adding big bodies kolar new joke njoku alec ingold who i get ready to see so much goddamn alec ingold man like yep because i just think mcdaniel even if there's a little bit of a you know in pass protection there's some struggles with these guards I think McDaniel can really cover up a lot of it with how effective this run game can be um I love Orion Hampton I think he's gonna be really really good I think Justin Herbert's gonna bet for this but like a Marian Hampton might be the biggest winner of the entire offseason yeah I mean all the stretch runs are gonna be fantastic like you said it was the run game for the Dolphins last year it was aaron brewer who was out in space and just annihilating dudes like every single game like you can just watch a highlight tape from a center and get pumped up and then patrick paul had a really nice season at left tackle so they do have like the right bodies if you're gonna go like our work we're weak at guards well so were the dolphins last year they had a rookie uh playing out of position at one of the guard spots and it was a very tough season over there um so i think they will be able to mask it the run game is going to be fantastic i see it the same way where it's going to be a lot of rotations at I mean they have three running backs not now Vidal is a good pass protector so I think he's going to play some of those snaps Keaton Mitchell he was a wanted poster guy if you guys saw that story from McDaniel hanging that on the GM's wall like I need myself some Keaton Mitchell the other name was Alec Engle though it was like Alec Engle that was my number one wanted they signed him the next day on the office of Ortiz was Keaton Mitchell for a reason because he's got some Devon HN qualities, not to the same extent, but very fast, get him on the runs, or on the outside.

51:29And to your point, that's exactly what Omarion Hampton kind of is at this point. He's kind of like, almost like Derrick Henry in a way, where I think that once he gets up to speed, he's a total pain in the butt. He's got not the craziest amount of wiggle, but enough wiggle. I thought he was pretty indecisive between the tackles. There's one thing I'm a little bit nervous about was just, I think obviously when you're working through through the trash of that offensive line, you're going to make some bad decisions. But for like a first round running back, that was kind of in the back of my head.

51:58So I can see this being a little bit of a committee throwing the fullback three tight ends in their Gadsden. Uh, they got three or four wide receivers that they're going to rotate in. It's going to be like every single drive is just going to be something else out there. I think it's gonna be really hard to game plan against, but it's also gonna be maybe a little bit hard to execute in the first half of the season. I don't think this is going to be a 11 personnel team very much but i do think lad mcconkey can bounce back from what we saw last year which i i asked that's the other thing i want to talk about because rookie season lad mcconkey looked like the steel of the draft incredibly productive started once they started using him at all three levels you saw he was like a legit receiver who could win in a number of different ways different routes explosive great with the ball his hands and then last year they kind of he kind of disappeared.

52:49So I want to get your thoughts on like, did you, do you think it was just him getting supplanted by Keenan Allen? Or do you think there's anything with McConkie himself that needs to improve? I think both things happened. One of the first things was his catchable ball rate on his targets went from 78 % to 67%. It's like already like that's 11 % of your passes. It was just like not his fault. It's like that explains like a lot of it. he also did have less yards after catch per reception and then the big thing was and this was what surprised me during that rookie season was he was dominating contested catch situations way down the football i was like if he's gonna do this like then like he can be whoever he wants in the nfl and then last year i think it was three of 14 and he's always one of these guys just like picking himself off the ground and like that's always a little bit worrisome for for his size and his injury history.

53:43They didn't run him quite as many downfield routes because Quentin Johnson took that big step. And then so he was running a lot of the underneath stuff. And then obviously Keenan Allen's a little bit more physical underneath. So some of those passes kind of went there. So I think like four or five things kind of explain what happened to Ladd McConkie. But I know what I watched as a rookie. If you can get back to that, like he's going to have a huge season here. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a little bit of a rotation like Trey Harris, a good blocker and maybe Ladd McConkie's off the field for a little bit more than we want.

54:11So like for fantasy rankings, like he goes in the fourth round, like next, like a Mecca, Buka and like Tedrow, McMillan, Luther burdens, like that type of range. That makes sense to me. There's a huge ceiling to chase here. But last year, like was not the season I was expecting from him. Like personally. Yeah. I think it was a mix of things to your point. One thing I looked up out of curiosity, FDN does. You can on their stats, which is not in the guide. You can filter things by first read. and I was just wanted something I wanted to see was how often McConkie was targeted on first reads and it was cut by almost 25 percent from last year and largely spanted by Allen and I think a lot of that was on third downs and stuff and to go back to what I said about Herbert in the two and a half seconds if it ain't the first read in this Chargers offense last year it was part of the reason I think why there was like off-target throws he had more off-target throws to him was because if he was getting targeted later in the progression shit was going haywire So I do think, you know, him being a focal point for McDaniel will help.

55:16I do. And I do think, and there's a lot to like, to like, we talked about the toughness over the middle of the field. We think, assume the Chargers offense is going to be in way more, you know, in condensed formations. He has shown the ability to fight through traffic and not downfield, but like on the short intermediate stuff, I thought his rookie year, he was really, really good at that. So I like that too, putting him on the inside man in a bunch, for example and I think um defense is keyed in on him a bit more than last season he got some like tasty matchups I thought last year and you saw him beating like backers and winning you know so I think you know that changed a bit I'm interested in Johnson in this offense because um something that's been like missing with him since he's coming to the NFL is how good he was with the ball in his hands in college think about those crossers TCU and the way he would pull away for massive gains and I do wonder if that's something again thinking about this offense the condensed formations the crosser is working in the middle of the field setting up yards after the catch if he could also be a beneficiary of that yeah I I saw the same way I thought TCU I thought he was actually kind of flawed down the football field he had like a couple like busted coverages like in the biggest games of the season but for the most part a lot of his damage was like against like those big 12 defenses underneath where he's his like long speed that really takes off so I can see that i'm not sure if like i would like throw him a bunch of screens like i'd rather do that with like lad mcconkey they're gonna do that to like i would do that to to hampton like who i thought was pretty good as a receiver he was really bad in protection but like he can catch the football yeah so i think that you're gonna get some of that the big thing is the dolphins with mcdaniel were third in dropbacks per game with zero to two wide receivers on the field and they were 29th uh with three plus wide receivers so whoever's gonna be on the football field like is going to get the ball a lot like we saw with waddle and tyreek hill um and they do have like trey harris was like a second round pick like this last year then they drafted brendan thompson who is super fast and he was playing like ex-receiver in the sec and like actually had some good moments i'm kind of interested there charlie colder caught a bunch of passes in college was behind likely in mark andrews but i think he's the best blocker on the team and there's in theory a chance that he gets going then Gadsden for like four weeks was like a top five fantasy guy so somebody else is going to step up but behind lad McConkie and Hampton my guess might be like Keaton Mitchell might be like kind of like the change of pace guy that gets a lot of uh involved he's on the dynasty team as well uh yeah that that pairing of the trio rather of Kolar Gadsden and Joku is I don't want to say a budget version but it reminds me a bit of Kolar Andrews and or Kolar likely and Andrews with Gadsden playing the likely role and Njoku being he would be a diet Andrews and you know he's still a good player um yeah a lot of 13 a lot of 21 I yeah fantasy I wouldn't I wouldn't Hampton I would want and that's about you know the receiver unfortunately goes like 14th overall so it's like him versus Saquon Barkley and I'm a little bit concerned at that price tag but I hear you on the upside.

58:17Field said that because I asked him a hand to versus Gentile and he was like, I don't know, there's gonna be like a rotation in LA. Got me a little nervous. Yeah. All right. Well, again, I hope so because I have Mitchell. The defense. So I really wanted to take a hard look at this because all offseason I've been like Chargers offense to the moon, defense step back. And I really wanted to like, first I want to acknowledge, I have been like wrong about this Chargers defense now two years in a row. I've never said they've been bad, But I'm like, there's no way this is a top 10. I'm looking at it on paper every these last two years.

58:49And I've said, this doesn't look like a top 10 defense to me on paper. And then they continue to finish in, I think last year they were 10th in DV away. So now I'm. I'm pivoting to Jesse Minter was just him. And that's why I look stupid. And now he's gone. So maybe I'm finally wrong. Where are we at on that? Chargers fans, I'm ready to look dumb again. I mean, on paper, it does not look like it should be that good. It's fine. It's not bad. It's not a bad defense. There's good players, but like there's stars. Yeah. I mean, the past few seasons, I had third in points allowed over the past few seasons.

59:26Like, like if you just looked at it, that is not the third best defense. Like I think probably mentor or Jesse mentors. Like that's, that's a big thing. I mean, it was very clear, like even like in college that mentor was going to be one of the best like NFL coordinators out there, like all the best defenses in the NFL, Seahawks included the Ravens when they were really balling out a couple of years ago. Like it's this style defense. They can do a lot. A zone coverage communication is outstanding there. They play physical. um now the new dc chris o 'leary we know not that much about except that harbaugh sent him back to college so he can be a defensive coordinator anticipating that mentor was going to leave and then the second mentor does leave he calls him back to the team to now be the defensive coordinator that sounds like a good plan like there's a lot there's like some like like sense of like this is like our next guy like go send him to the minors like yes i was thinking it's like maybe just because i was watching house of the dragon harbaugh is like the king sending like the next king to go rule a city somewhere in thorn or something and then bringing him harvard's crazy i i have a take on this okay so this is way too i'm sweeping with painting with too white a brush i am out on college ocs coming to the nfl i am in on college dc's coming to the nfl was that leaving the last few years right like yeah awesome college defensive corners have come and been incredible and and low leary has nfl experience and he was with the charges but like offensive corners we've had some real busts chip last year i mean what the heck was yeah right so like don't you feel like a little bit like you know what all right it's probably gonna work like i i'd be interested in thinking i mean it's a lot of that has to do with the mcdonald harbaugh like michigan tree and all that but like i i guess i'm a little bit less nervous about it than if it was an offensive guy to me like defensive like coaching and obviously i have no experience here but it's so much communication just like watch the game like how much like linebackers and safeties and corners have to sit there and communicate like you either are really good at communicating to your players to figure that stuff out or you're not and because there's not that much man coverage like you have to be good at that and so yeah i'm guessing that's like a huge skill set for for the nfl defensive coordinators and then with the college stuff like just the splits and you know the pacing and all that type of stuff uh maybe the offensive coordinator is like way too big of a change where on defense it's like i we are still just communicating the zone rules uh at play here so that's that was like the big thing i had there are some like players that are on and off the team now like you lose away but a key mesador comes in oh it was like chasing down so many sacks last year like the last couple games of the season like he was like fire boogeyman coming coming across the field i did like mesador i know that he was older player but I did think that his tape was pretty solid kind of a boom bust player um but had like a lot of big time moments and like Khalil Mack still getting it done but also 35 years old and then I like their young guys in the secondary like Tar Heep still um but we're not talking about like you know the top corners in the NFL out there just like German James in that very unique role so yeah I would guess that they would finish like maybe they are like 10th this year 12th this year and not you know third in scoring that they have been the last couple years it the the i i read a little bit up on o 'leary and um about west at western michigan and read that he was like a very aggressive like a lot of blitzing but i also am like well when you're outgunned talent wise you're coaching a small school i don't really feel like it's transferable because you're just trying to like erase those advantages by creating havoc so i I don't think that necessarily means the chargers who don't blitz are going to suddenly become this like incredibly blitz heavy man coverage.

1:03:09It's just not, it's just also not like winter really like did a great job of building it around the skillset of the players. He has, these are zone corners, you know, like the front, the way you get pressure, he was ran a lot of simulated pressures, obviously, and was very successful in doing so. And I think, um, you know, I think the thing I would just say like to again, watching them about when I say they're well coached like they just always felt like they had like three guys around the ball you know and I think that'll sustain I mean it's the same most it's a lot of the same players with as you mentioned a few changes uh but I do think like you have to acknowledge the loss of mentor and how that could potentially impact the group just like on the margins yeah and like Tony Jefferson still listed as a starter he's been around for a very long time in molden um yeah yeah and they have genesis smith i think he's like 34 his birthday is older than older than mine which if i was playing in the nfl my my legs are so sore already i can't believe that these guys are able to do this still but i was looking like with o 'leary western michigan ninth in scoring last year on defense you know at western michigan uh so like there's there's probably something to it i just you know i thought jesse minter was like the second or third best defensive player caught in the league last, last year.

1:04:32So like, I'm guessing he's not going to be the second or third best. I would guess. Also, they'll be put in, you know, I talked about situational football with the Broncos. They'll probably be put in better positions by the offense. If things go as we suggest. And I look at this group and I still think they'll be good against the run. They added, they did add Dalvin Tomlinson called well up front, tired, tart, the backers the same. They're great tackling defense. so I'm ready to look stupid again charges fans I really am I'm not I want to be clear I'm not saying I I think the minimum be above an average defense I just like talent wise I always look at that I'm like they were better than the sum of their parts I think I'll just say that I do think it's interesting O 'Leary um like coach James and that's a good thing too because he was a safety coach in 224 because James is the straw that obviously stirs the drink in that defense he Did you just get paid?

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1:07:21Plus, their technical product specialists are here to help answer your toughest questions. And because Grainger knows safety is always a priority, they're committed to being your partner in protecting both your people and your facilities. Call 1-800-GRAINGER, click grainger.com, or just stop by. All right, let's wrap up with the Raiders. different kind of goals this season for Vegas. I think the most important goal and the thing that has to be accomplished is putting Fernando Mendoza in a situation where he doesn't, where he can grow and it looks competent. So let's start there. Is this a good enough situation for Fernando Mendoza?

1:08:05Or are we just saying Tyler Linderbaum and ignoring everything else. I mean, I'm not even sure if I can get to that point because I don't even know how much he's actually going to play. Oh, we can play. Come on. We've been how long we've been doing this. I think he's gonna play like half the season. How many times do teams stick with that? Yeah, I would say like week eight. They're by their by weeks like week 13. Like we might like go half the season with with Kirk Cousins and stuff. The schedule. Let me pull it up because I remember I was I always like to look for like the soft spot in the schedule.

1:08:36And it's actually, it's not a great, the schedule is not set up well for him to play early. So to me, like the difference is like, it's Tom Brady is like saying, I didn't do this. We're not going to do this. Like, that's where I think, you know, there's maybe more pressure versus like, you know, Joe blow saying like, we're going to, that's true. Maybe he'll be busy wrestling or whatever the hell. What is, what is going on? Yeah. So through week eight, cause then week five you got a brutal stretch you get patriots bills rams jets but then you get niners seahawks broncos jesus i mean the problem is just you're in this division so like yeah that's where i feel like you know maybe it's that jets game like kind of early on um you know the defense isn't going to be very good the schedule is what it is um they're figuring it out on on offense if it looks a lot better this year like like you just said that they don't have uh you know the ucla bruins head coach calling plays.

1:09:29They have the Super Bowl winning offensive coordinator calling plays. That seems good. Colton Miller shouldn't play four games like he did last year, and he's been a top 10 guy over the last three years, according to PFF pass blocking grades. He's been doing that forever. Linderbaum's a big signing. They need him to be. They paid him $9 million more per year than the previous top paid center in Creed Humphrey. I'm not sure if he's... Actually, I know he's not better than Creed Humphrey, but I think Mendoza is going to be a storyline here. I just fear it's going to be like November or December.

1:10:00And like at that point, like I don't even need to tune into Raiders games aside for the Brock Bauer stuff. I feel like look, okay. It's going to be act going to get a lot of tight ends. They also, I sneakily think speaking of like fullbacks, Connor Hayward, they added the Seahawks really like using a fullback Rob Utes last season. And I think this run game wouldn't be surprised if we see a decent amount of Hayward too. I think the offensive line should be better, although I am very worried about the entire right side. Yes, very much so. But I really wish they added a receiver. And maybe they will.

1:10:40But right now, Jack Bash, Trey Tucker, Jalen Naylor. That's tough. I have a pet peeve, which is I hate when B guys are like, they like the guys they have. They shouldn't. They might like them. Could you love somebody though? Like get something that you love. It's like when, like we should use that language when we know somebody is in an unhappy relationship and like, they're like, they like the guy they have. And it's like, do you really, you like him? Cause it's not good enough. I think the, it all starts to me over whether this can be a competent run game. Cause we know they're going to run the ball heavily.

1:11:20Ashton Gentry, their Raiders running backs last year, averaged 1.71 yards before contact before carry, which is worse than the NFL. Five Addle Hill teams had twice that, including the Denver Broncos, which is insane. So I think everyone's kind of leaning on, can't be that bad, but is that like a good bar? I think it can't be that bad. I mean, we do this thing in the offseason, from doing this for the last handful of years, where we kind of take the positive spin on every team. And then at some point, there's half the league where we're like, I can't. And I do think the Raiders are obviously going to be atop that list.

1:11:56The Glaze stuff at right tackle was really bad. Jackson Powers-Johnson, they just have not figured that out. Now, to be frank, it was Pete Carroll's son as the offensive line coach last year. There's probably a big upgrade coming there. It's like those type of things, they should get better. But I was going to ask you about Gentry. Obviously, he's going to get way better because the offensive line, everything's going to get better, obviously. when you're watching him i saw a difference maker out in the open field and that he was making a lot of guys miss he's a pain in the butt to tackle i'm not sure if i saw like super decisive super fast foot quickness compared to you know you have to like look at like saquon barkley is like this is what we're trying to aim it's not going to be gives or bijon is he going to be saquon is he going to be anywhere near that i had my doubts like i i almost like view him like closer to like you know josh jacobs which is like a really strong running back but i had my concerns going back and just watching him like throwing out all the bad plays and be like is he like is he an all pro like are we really sure he's like gonna be that guy i have i have a feeling he's gonna be a tier below what we were expecting with all the obviously caveats that we already provided about how the situation was and how insane everything was in vegas and how bad it all was um i thought he look more elusive than explosive and if you think about like kling kubiak and this being like an under center wide zone run game um i don't know if he's like the best fit exactly for it um but i do think if there's some issues with the offensive line he can help mask those in a way that like a kenneth walker doesn't to be blunt kenneth like or like you know um how do i put it like like jenarian price who the seahawks just drafted you're like i get it right one cut bam and genti to me is i i actually feel like i'm trying to think of like what like Denver he'd be awesome I think I I just think I don't know if he's ever going to be like if he's going to be like one of those like you said like those top five explosive play backs he's not Bijan Robinson to me but I do think he has some creative and eraser or creative potential and erases some bad plays in a way where he can bring this thing up to average I think he's a good back.

1:14:29I think he's good. Like Brees Hall, I think is maybe somewhat a little bit similar. I think Brees Hall's got maybe a little bit more juice and Jenny's a little bit more of a bowling ball. But the goodies with Jenny is he is a really effective pass catcher and I do think they have no choice that they have to get that going more. He's going to be tasked with pass protection because his backup is Mike Washington. Like you can't throw out a boom bust style rookie out there. So he's going to be tasked with playing a bunch of the passing downs. I know he is good as a receiver there and I hope that he just speeds up his own pacing.

1:15:01I think a lot of the yards before contact numbers was because the offensive line, but there was some plays. I do think that he was just like his feet were stopped and he's kind of looking around and then all of a sudden he got hit. So I think he's a good running back. I'm not sure if he's like going to be an elite one and then I think on the flip side, Brock Bowers, like he had a terrible season because of the knee. There's no question like that. That is a superstar. How's he going to use him? Because okay. So like the entire Seahawks offense ran through, you know, Jack, not entire, but like Jackson was a jig about head.

1:15:31Like, I'm sure the most targets, this is your account. You guys look at this stuff closely. I'm sure the highest target share by like three or four percentage points. It was crazy. So your best player is a tight end. Everybody knows this. And there are offenses where you can flow through that, right? Like we've seen that model by Arizona, their best player is a tight end at times in Kansas city. It's been Travis kelsey certainly against certain defensive looks but it's it's not as simple as saying oh cool he's we can line him up outside like most of the time or on the back side of and treat him like our number one he is a tight end it's different like you know you the way he is used obviously i'm not saying i'm not comparing him to jsn nobody thinks that but like this is it's a little bit tricky for me to imagine him getting that level of target that we saw with jason yeah yeah i mean the jsn stuff is silly because he was he became excellent down the field like yeah it plus like the ins and outs like he was he had everyone dancing so like that's an impossible not impossible but it's nearly impossible bar to clear i think they can use him like drake london you know if we're going to throw it comparing the wide receivers drake london would be one there's a little bit of puka nakua overlap lap there.

1:16:47So I do think that like there is a huge season waiting for Brock Bowers. My little notes on him 65 yards per game through his first two seasons are the most to start a two year career at tight end since at least 2000. Like the next closest guys are like all the Hall of Famers your gates your Kelsey's Gronk skills all those type of guys like he's in the right range. He's actually at the very top of that. And then I was Ryan Paganetti who's just all of a sudden just blown up on Twitter, former staffer for the Eagles doing analytics and helping out coaches do game plans. He was at the Raiders last year, and he tweeted, quote, we had a goal last year in Las Vegas of single season record for catches and targets for Brock Bowers before the week one injury.

1:17:31And that's where I think this thing's going. I think the defense is going to be mediocre to bad. And like you said, the wide receivers are terrible. I think they're only going to be able to run the ball so much behind that offensive line. like I think Brock Bauer is going to go absolutely crazy there and I I do think he's as close to a wide receiver as we see with tight end like yeah that's what I yeah I think I'm thinking about I mentioned Kelsey and McBride I'm trying to think of like other historical example you know what I mean of like Kelsey like three by one stuff where he's like the back guy just in isolation and just part of the reason that worked is that I mean they they did that mostly with when Tyreek Hill was well I don't know I just if I'm a defense like who are you worried about other than Brock like I think that's just I understand that he's going to consume like most of the volume here and I think like look to be clear like Naylor's a good player Besh was clearly underutilized and they all want to play the slot like I like Naylor in the slot I like Jack Besh as a slot receiver like uh trey tucker is going to be their ex and he is really small so like michael mayor he actually did a lot of you know tight end stuff in college or uh slot stuff in college like they have five guys that want to play the slot and they have one or two slot options per snap and like genti is going to line up out wide on occasion there and run some of those little routes as well so it's like this is where kubi actually looking at this like i just don't have the right guys yet.

1:19:02This is going to take three, four years. Yeah, not just on offense. I just think if they added like one. I maybe like a problem is like it's like there's extra receivers don't grow on trees, but like if they're fair was. I mean, they can't do the stuff like their history. The Raiders can't be in the I. Yeah, right. Yeah, like it's like, I just wish they had one more receiver. That's all. You know, I'm excited for Mendoza. I was very high on him. Talked about him a lot ahead of the draft Raiders fans. You I'm not going to get into all of that again. I think, okay, so just to kind of put a bow on this before we wrap with the Raiders' defense, I think what I'll say about, like, can Mendoza be successful?

1:19:40Is this good enough? If this run game can approach average so that he's not on third and long, then I think yes. But that, to me, is kind of the barometer here. And whether or not the run game can approach average, you're going to need much decent play on the right side of that offensive line, I think for this to work, even with, you know, a full bag, all the big bodies. That's important. I don't like their chances. Yeah. All right. Defensively. Patrick Graham out. I think people will be surprised to learn the Raiders were 14th in defensive DVOA, which we'll get to the Steelers, but tip to Patrick Graham because he kept the thing looking competent despite some real talent deficiencies.

1:20:27And I think deserves a lot of credit for that. Some interesting splits. They were 6th in DVOA on first down, 29th on third down. Uh-oh. Yeah. They were better against the pass in the run, though. A lot of that had to do with the absence of pressure, I think, and also some real issues on the back end, which we'll get to. Bring in a new defensive coordinator, Rob Leonard, who has NFL experience. I think the expectation, reading some of the Raiders coverage, is that it's going to be Mike McDonald-y-like. I play, he was with him in Baltimore. So, you know, we talk about the Mike McDonald defense on this pod, split safety, zone heavy, light boxes, four man rush, simulated pressures, just to oversimplify some of the things you might see.

1:21:15Talent wise, they did add players. There was a focus here at the game at the expense of taking a receiver. And also in free agency, linebacker room is remade with former teammates, to Kobe Dean and Kway Walker. Quiddy Pays, now opposite Max Crosby, but they drafted Kieran Cofford out of Auburn's player I liked. And then they drafted Jermon McCoy, fourth round, ending his fall. But otherwise, the secondary, oh, they added Taron Johnson to play. All right. So I guess let's start from with like a positive. one you're coming off of an above average statistically defensive season what do you think is the case for the raiders defense to continue improving this season um like what when you look at that group like what makes you think that could happen i think just more depth kind of everywhere is probably the place to start there's a couple seasons there in a row where the secondary was just starting like all three of the guys it was really um below average like i would really like like trade on Stukes their second yes he was like he was he was really good that last season he kind of played between positions I think that he can push uh Teron Johnson maybe by the end of the season and like Jermon McCoy like you never know apparently he's going to be ready for for training camp so you don't know what ready means but like if that hits that would be a big deal um be even like just like you know Eric Stokes Jeremy Chandler they at least have like guys that have played football before.

1:22:45Stokes was pretty good last year and they paid him. Um, and like it's not always perfect to look at covered stats, but he was actually ninth in passer rating allowed eighth in success rate and tied for first in yards per snap. Um, so he was not the problem. The problem was they were 32nd in DVO versus number two wide receivers safety play was bad and the safety play was also. Yeah. So it was kind of everyone but him. He was decent. I think either you need Darian Porter to take a leap or you need McCoy to beat him. You need Johnson to stabilize things or you need Stukes to be, you know, like there's options to your debate about depth.

1:23:28Um, and then I think the improved linebacker play is massive. I mean, this is a good linebacker group. Now Walker and Dean, I not only do I like them as upgrades on what we saw last year and not losing spleen i think hurt them i like them together like i think those two backers fit well they're like complementary players where dean can be the signal caller and then walker can just go and be explosive so i i like this group much better than last season yeah there's there's definitely more upside with just in terms of you know the the level of talent there it's like yeah like you said the the linebacker play it's a yin and yang and hopefully that makes both of them better.

1:24:09Dean's had some big-time injuries, a very unique player as well. But yeah, Quay Walker's the one where I don't think I would have been the one to sign him to the contract, but in theory, you know, having him next to the guy he's played football with should help him out. And then beyond that, even the edge rushing group, Quidipe really one-dimensional. I think he was 10th in ESPN's run block or run stuff, win rate, whatever the definition is, but does not have any juice as a pass rusher And then K Ron Crawford, I thought was really interesting. They got him in the third. Yeah, he was, he was really explosive and he would be like out there in coverage.

1:24:46And then they would loop him inside. And I thought he had like legit moves as a pass rusher. And I guess they traded for, uh, Max Crosby this off season, whatever we're calling that. It's like, he's back, but off of a torn meniscus that obviously the Ravens didn't like to have. It's, it's one of these things where the Raiders defense for the last five years has probably been like with the worst defense in the nfl on average they're nowhere near that at this point but trying to get like a good like read on the situation to me i found was like too difficult with all the the moving parts the crosby thing okay so like from what i've heard with baltimore the and i could be wrong here but it seems like their concern wasn't about this season with him yeah it's about the future and so we're talking about this season and for the raiders the l is not this season it's that either he's going to decline in the future or they won't be able to trade him because there was no more trade chatter after that um so i think it's a world where like max cosy comes back looks fine and everyone's like the raiders ravens are liars and that's not at all like the dynamic but i do think like you know last year when he played like he was still amazing against the run he's still a good player um even if he's lower it's like his snaps like why like maybe he doesn't have to play a thousand and a hundred snaps this year because you know like right Malcolm Coons also like that was somebody before his injury.

1:26:05He was like top 10 and the nerdy metrics as well, too. It's like four guys now or maybe like maybe Max Crosby should play 846 snaps this year. Well, that would be another Mike McDonald thing is to use more of a rotation. If Rob Leonard was to go in that direction, but but McDonald also had a stacked group and this isn't a stacked group. So, you know, we'll see. I think success for I always talk about this with teams who aren't competitors, who aren't contenders or playoff teams because I don't think they're a playoff team. Success is 99 % of it is just Mendoza not getting killed back there and looking like a good pick.

1:26:47But for defense I think you want Dean and Walker to work because that was your big move. And then I would think you'd want one of these draft picks that we've mentioned to hit, whether it's McCoy's the dream because of how good his tape was pre-injury. But if it's Stooks or Crawford, you know what I mean? Like just if someone looks like a guy, then you at least start to have like a young core you feel good about, especially as Crosby kind of enters the twilight of his career. Yeah. Sometimes with these defensive coordinators, like we just don't see them coming. And like, in theory, that could be Leonard, you know, like I have no notes on Leonard.

1:27:28but you know sometimes these guys pop out out of nowhere and then they are actually very effective so it comes from the right tree at least yeah I was going to say is Mike McDonald might be the new I had coffee with Mike McDonald so it should be that's how good of a coordinator he is like he should be treated as McVay no I mean fully like look it's it's that's what I was very high on I mentioned O 'Leary not very high but like it's there's a case for optimism there all right well did I sound too low the raiders i i think okay just to kind of you know i i really like the mendoza pick i'm optimistic about him i think things are getting better i think it was the right coach i am just a little bit apprehensive of the people like that they're still missing pieces on both sides of the ball i think that's how i would sum it up they're way better it's like a real organization again yeah but you know we're here for 2028.

1:28:21yes oh 28. i mean that's kind of just we've got to be realistic every once in a while. All right. Well, it has come the time to rank the teams. Oh, no. Okay. So I'm going to talk out loud. All offseason, I've been Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders. I feel good about the Broncos as my number one. You said you have them as a Super Bowl team. I was just asked about the AFC. The power rankings, they've consistently been the top AFC team. I just think the team is so stacked. um i'm i i i've i still feel good about the chargers but i keep looking at the chiefs and wondering if we're going to look dumb but i'm going to stick with the chargers don't feel good about it i'm going to stick with my order i don't feel good i'm talking talking out loud i don't feel good about it i think there's absolutely a world in which the chiefs the regression positive regression happens it's the top 10 top eight offense run game looks great young defensive picks hit Steve Spagnuolo magic.

1:29:25But I just think this Chargers offense is going to be gasoline. So I'm going to go. I'm going to stick with it. Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs. Don't love it. Raiders. I see the same way. Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs. I'll do the cop-out thing. And this is how annoying I'm going to be. All three make the playoffs. Hey, good afternoon. I was looking at the markets. They're all favored to make the playoffs. Really? all three like that's how close this thing is like it's about even on who's going to win the division but all three of them are um more likely than not expected to make the playoffs now all three together that's a totally different you know mathematical equation but those are three three really good teams i do think the broncos i would make them first though the afc is going to be a beast to untangle because as i've been doing these power rankings one thing that's very obvious is the nfc is very top heavy and then you can eliminate a lot the afc is like fifth like eight teams that are you're like they're good so it's hard to they don't have as much of a middle class as the nfc and yeah like you're like of all three teams from this division make the playoff who are you cutting cincinnati are you i'm not here to answer that i'm only on one preview i'm out of here um all right uh remind folks where they can check out your pod uh yeah josh norris over at yahoo we'll be doing shows with nate tice matt harm and justin boone and and the out there it's a really exciting time they have college football fantasy for the first time so if you guys are into that type of thing um true sicko stuff notre dame plus the power four conferences and obviously all the the regular yahoo fantasy stuff out there but uh first show is um the 27th with matt harman so that'll be fun i need to listen because i'm in a dynasty that dynasty league i've alluding to nate is in and he consistently top three finisher danny kelly is also in it uh we've been doing it for years now uh however they don't call me the howie roseman of the league but i did draft harold fan in junior and i actually might i i had kelsey forever people love hearing about your dynasty teams and i so like i you know obviously that's he continues to be a factor for kansas city but i i draft trey mcbride and fanage so i've just been like so good drafting tight ends but my receivers group is awful just atrocious i'm the same boat i got pits bought low on pits and then i got a ronda gadsden like the fourth round uh but my my wide receiver three is like hewn and allen so he's not even on the football team so i don't know what happened there it's not great.

1:32:03I think I started Rashad, not Rashad, even somebody worse. I can't remember. It's pretty grim. I started Titans era Tyler Lockett at one point. It happens. The dynasty leagues are it's insane. It's so deep. It's a two-quarterback league. Why are we doing this for ourselves? I still have Derek Carr on my team. I'm holding on to him. Yeah. Just in case. Just in case. He seems undecided. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, that was the AFC West. Thank you so much to Hayden for joining us. Go check out his podcast. We'll be back next week to do the NFC South. That division. And as I mentioned, power ranks.

1:32:42We will continue until morale improves. Bill Simmons is up next. Thank you as always, by the way, to the folks at Omaha Productions. Sorry, I was so happy to get off that joke. I forgot to say thank you to Kirsten Taveki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, and Tucker Tosh.

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