Nix Tape: Previewing the AFC West

25:09He played both last year. Jordan Merritt is going to play center. All right. On a scale of one through 10, how surprised would you be? 10 being the most surprised, one being the least, if this Raiders offense finished top eight in DVOA next year?

25:28Steven Ruiz:Top eight. I think I would be a seven out of 10, just based on my skepticism of the offensive line and the red flags that were like the the jackson powers johnson thing has is really concerning i don't know if you've been following it at all but like he when he was at center i think they had alex capp in there and alex cappa was making like the line calls during practice and then they kind of got jpj out of there put jordan meredith in there and apparently jordan meredith said they came to me early in otas and were like you're playing center this year so it sounds like chip kelly p carroll whoever saw jackson powers johnson kind of given the reins of the offensive line and were like, nope, nope, this is not going to work.

26:05Steven Ruiz:Maybe we should play him at guard where he looked a little bit better last year. So I'm deeply concerned about the interior offensive line. I feel like there's a very real scenario where we have a Seahawks situation with Gino where there are pieces that are good and you can make the case that they have a talented offense, but the interior offensive line just totally wrecks everything. But outside of that, I know there's question marks about the wide receiver talent, but I like the young guys they brought in. I like Besh and the tight ends with Chip Kelly. I just think Chip is going to cook, and it sounds like what we've seen in training camp, that's been the case.

26:36Steven Ruiz:They've had a lot of two tight ends on the field, and they've been very hard to defend. Now, that might be a Raiders defense thing more so than an offensive talent thing, but I'm very excited to watch at the very least. So let's talk about the Seahawks. So last year, Raiders fans, if you didn't follow Seahawks closely, Gino, I think I posted this when he got traded. over the last three years has faced the highest quick pressure rate of any quarterback in football that continued last year. The offensive line was a disaster. He was constantly under pressure and it was constantly put in passing situations because he lived in the gun.

27:11They were an empty all the time and they couldn't run the ball. I think that's a pretty fair synopsis of the Ryan Greber in Seattle. Despite that, he actually still led a pretty explosive offense with second in on target rate, fifth in completion percentage over expected. Geno Smith is an extremely accurate and aggressive quarterback who last year, if he had one failing, it was, I believe, taking a few too many risks out of desperation, particularly in the red zone. Feels like a good. All right. So now when you look at the Raiders, as you said, there are things that make me think his circumstances are improved.

27:51And then there are things that give me pause. It's really what you described. The main thing that gives me the pause is the offensive line. This was a bad offensive line last year. It wasn't as bad in Seattle as Seattle. It's just about every metric. But you're still concerned, especially with what's going on in camp. However, I do think that the build of the offense with these tight ends in the back and blocking receivers, by the way, coupled with the play caller and his creativity in the run game gives me hope that Gino won't be a sitting duck back there the way he was in Seattle, if that makes sense.

28:31Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I don't think he's going to be asked to play, like to steal an analogy from basketball, be asked to play iso ball as much as he was in Seattle. I think you're going to see an environment on offense that even if the pass protection isn't great, is going to make it very hard to pin your ears back and rushed the quarterback, which was the opposite case for Seattle. And I don't think we can overstate how bad the running backs were last year in Las Vegas and how that affected the run game. Like Amir Adula was the most productive back on the team, and I hadn't heard that name in like four years before last year.

29:04Steven Ruiz:So I just think putting Gente in there, combined with Chip Kelly, combined with how he designs his offense, this is going to be the easiest Geno Smith has ever had it throughout his career. I think if you look back at his career, I don't know if he's ever had an offensive play caller or environment that has made his job easy. Like even his breakout year in Seattle, he was still dealing with similar problems that you described earlier. Yeah. I mean, you know, people say, well, he had better receivers in Seattle. That's true, I think, right? I mean, Jacoby Myers is the wide receiver one. But that's not.

29:35This is an offense that's going to live in. Like Brock Bowers is the wide receiver one in this offense. Let's be honest. And along those lines, by the way, I mean, Gino loves attacking the middle of the field. He loves a seam ball. He loves throwing to his tight ends. Over the last three years, throwing to tight ends in Seattle, Geno Smith has been third in CPOA, sixth in success rate. And that's like Noah Fant and AJ Barner. Now he gets to throw to Brock freaking Bowers. And, you know, I think Mike Mayer, too, who, you know, had off the field issues, being back in the fold really helps as well.

30:10I love those two tight ends together. I think, and then Gentry, to me, you talked about the run game. The offensive line was not good at run blocking, for sure, particularly the interior of the offensive line. But you said this. I mean, they were, it pulled up, Alexander Madison was the second worst back in the entire NFL in rushing yards over. So he was generating nearly negative 0.6 yards per carry below what is expected of an average back in those situations.

30:39Steven Ruiz:I feel like my rushing below expectation would be like minus three. So I'm not that far off from Alexander Madison. No, no. Gentry is going to be obvious. And I think Gentry as a pass catcher too is going to be tremendous. And he's a really good pass catcher. I just think if the only other concern to have is I think like the receivers are all kind of similar. I mean, I don't know how. It's interesting that they drafted Jack Besh because Myers is obviously the number one. he's a slot receiver so i'll be curious to see how they get besh on the field i think you're going to see some sort of ramsy rams type usage of the receivers um i'm interested i mean i like i've said this this is my league pass offense like i'm this is maybe one of the more interesting units in the nfl because it's such an uncharacteristic group of players and then we should have started with this you have a play caller in chip kelly i've talked about this a little bit who's completely different from the last time he was in the nfl so i'm excited yeah I think you can't I think Eagles fans are probably here the name Chip Kelly are like oh they're going to be terrible they're going to be running the same plays over and over again and the defense is going to be able to call them out but he did change when he went back to UCLA I remember this is a deep cut but like have you heard of the name Dante Barty he was like on Coach Vass's podcast all the time he was a GA with Cal when Chip was in UCLA and I remember listening to a podcast with him he's like they were the toughest team to defend which sounds like a far cry sounds Sounds like a far cry from what you heard about from defenders playing against that Philadelphia offense.

32:12Steven Ruiz:So I think the changes that Chip has made really suit themselves for today's NFL, where bigger bodies tend to, I think that's the way the league is going. You get bigger bodies out there, you force the defense to put their bigger bodies out there, and then you create 50-50 run pass situations. I think Chip has really excelled at that, even with his UCLA teams. I know UCLA wasn't winning a bunch of games, but the offense was always well designed. So I think the infrastructure is going to be good. And as I think the ceiling is going to be dictated by how good these young receivers are. If Besh or even Thornton can just be a guy that, I don't know, 70 catches, 65 catches for 800 yards, like that could be a top eight offense.

32:54Yeah, you just want one of the receivers to at least allow them to threaten downfield so that defenses have to respect space and can't just come close to the line of scrimmage. I mean, obviously, Bowers is a downfield threat as well, but Gino, you know, has a big armed quarterback. Like, it's a waste if you have somebody who can't get open down there, and they do have players. I think the consistency is going to be the question. And my feeling is if this is an average to even like a top 20 offensive line, given what Gino has dealt with in Seattle, I think you feel okay. But there's a chance it's not.

33:30That's what I want to like leave. And I know the comments are going to be like, oh, you're already pre-making excuses for Gino Smith. You're damn right I am. No, I'm just kidding. You know, I'm just hopeful that it looks better than it did at the end in Seattle. He's obviously got to cut down on the interceptions.

33:47Steven Ruiz:And we should all be rooting for Geno Smith to thrive. He's one of the more fun quarterbacks to watch. He's like you said, he's a big game hunter. He try, he doesn't, he's not going to just check it down for the sake of checking it down. But I do think having a guy like Bowers out there as an outlet, maybe he cuts down on those tight window throws a little bit. Cause he's a little more confident in those plays going for five or 10 yards rather than two or three yards. Do you know who's coaching the Raiders offensive line? I do not. It's Pete Carroll's son. Oh, I didn't know that actually. Who has never coached offensive line in the NFL.

34:18Steven Ruiz:He'll be fine. Don't worry about it. He was not a coach in college, though, at Arizona and Washington. Okay. My enthusiasm for the Raiders is mostly centered on the offense. I love this defense, man. Last year, it's funny. They weren't actually that – and my memory of them is being really bad, but they were 19th in pass DVOA, 18th in rush DVOA. They were the second most injured defense in football. So we should probably, you know, that's obviously significant. They had no Christian Wilkins. Max Rosby missed a few games. They still have no Christian Wilkins because he's gone in a story that I have nothing to say about because I don't understand it at all.

35:01So they added a few capable veterans. So they brought back Malcolm Koontz, who also lost last year, who looks really, really promising the year before. Who knows what you're getting out of Tyree Wilson? honestly was their seventh overall draft pick but um yeah that was kind of the major thing linebacking spillane is gone it's landon roberts and devon white corners to corian bennett now is gone you're looking at uh darian rob darian porter who was the gigantic corner they drafted this year uh dk mary dkmarian richardson who's a very interesting player uh eric stokes darnay home Holmes and then at safety Jeremy Chin and Isaiah Polamo.

35:47Okay. Let's start with the good thing. You said you wanted to talk about one of the young corners.

35:52Steven Ruiz:No, I think Darren Porter, like being, he's already getting first team reps. And if you knew about Porter before the draft, he was seen as a project. I think he only played like nine games at Iowa state. The receiver turn corner. Yeah. So naturally we're getting the Richard Sherman comp speed. Carroll's there. He's gigantic. He can do the press bail stuff and he can track the ball. but the fact that he's we've seen a lot of Richard Sherman imitators and they usually take a very long time to even get into the lineup the fact that he's in the lineup already what one two weeks into camp is a very is a green flag for me but I think if I want to pitch some optimism for this defense because I think you just read the depth chart it's easy to be like all right that sounds like a bottom 10 unit but one of the problems with them last year wasn't necessarily the scheme it was the fact that they couldn't tackle they couldn't tackle and end plays and bring ball carriers down to the to the turf and i think bringing in a landon roberts not going to help you coverage wise jermaine pratt's not going to help you coverage wise but they are able to bring ball carriers down and i think that will create dividends for this defense as a whole i think that the run defense provided they don't run at darian porter to rick woolen is the better common not brincher he really i you know i watched his college tape did remind me a lot of rick And I think Pete Carroll has probably got that in his mind.

37:09I think that they did add a lot of players who I think will help in tackling and run defense. So Max Crosby remains one of the best run defending edges in the league. I think I should have added. So I think they added Thomas Booker from the Eagles. That was the other side of the trade who I have zero opinions about, but he's a defensive tackle. Adam Butler, I think, is solid run defender. Landon Roberts, he can defend the run. He can tackle. And then Jeremy Chin playing close to the line of scrimmage is a very good run defender in my mind. So I think that there will be some improvement in that regard.

37:50And I think like the pass rush, if Koontz is anything like he was before getting hurt, you can help out Max Crosby, who was probably the most double or one of the most double fifth amongst Edgerton double team rate last year. He was still 10th in pass rush win. He was, you know, he's still a very good player. But I think if he has a little bit of help on that line of skirmish, whether it's Koontz, whether it's getting more out of Wilson, that helps in that regard. I just, the coverage situation is very concerning for me looking at this group of DBs.

38:22Steven Ruiz:It's rough. It's rough, especially if they blitz as much as they did last year on third down. And with Christian, I know Christian Wilkins, I think he only played like a handful of games last year. So it's a loss, but it's not a loss they haven't dealt with already. but in order to get the most out of this defense I think they're going to have to one stop the run on first down to get a consistent pass stretch which I think relies on Koontz you know Max Krause is going to do his thing but he's going to get doubled but if Koontz can get eight nine ten sacks I think this could be I think they can repeat the results of last year but just they were better in the second half than they were in the first half they could just be the second half defense they were last year I think that's enough if our optimism for the offense is well-placed.

39:00Yeah. I mean, the offense last year was so god-awful too. They were constantly saddled with horrible field position. So, you know, we talked about the Chiefs defense benefiting just looking at this from a complimentary football standpoint. I think if they were inside the top 20 with the worst offense in football, not losing many significant contributors, I think it's realistic for them to at least finish around where they did last year. And if the offense takes a big leap, you're looking at a feisty team. I mean, I, Oh, I also wanted to add, they added JJ Pegs, who was the gigantic Mississippi state.

39:41Was it, or was it Ole Miss?

39:43Steven Ruiz:It was one of the Mississippi schools. I think it was Ole Miss. Cause I remember watching, I think Jackson Dart and being like, who is that? Every time they would put him on the field for. Yeah. Grounding back or whatever. Yeah. You know Miguel and Chip Kelly are going to do that too. To me, the optimistic case for this team is like a borderline top 10 offense with an average defense, I think, which would be a pretty significant improvement from last year. And also just the general feeling that it's Pete Carroll and Tom Brady and there's a steady hand guiding the ship, which I do believe. And we haven't even talked about that.

40:20I talked about the quarterback upgrade. I mean, when was the last time Pete Carroll lost more than – or won fewer than nine games? So massive coaching upgrade as well.

40:35Steven Ruiz:Yeah, I think this is – I think you can make the argument this is a top 10 coaching staff. I think we still need to see Act 2 of Chip Kelly before locking that in. But there is a very good possibility that at the end of the year, we're like, this is one of the best staffs in the NFL, maybe a top five staff. Gino Smith redemption season it's coming it's coming first playoff win no I'm not going that far but if they were in any other division I would feel comfortable locking them in as like a 10-win team but in this division I think it's going to be very tough all right let's take a quick break come back and talk about the other two teams in the division both of which made the playoffs last year as you know managing maintenance repair and operations is never easy But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Grainger has your back.

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42:11Steven Ruiz:Shohei Otani's interpreter was fired today. Ipe Mitsuhara ran up gambling debts to a Southern California bookmaking operation. The inside story of the biggest scandal in modern baseball. He was absolutely bananas, the amount of bets he was making. I've never seen anything like it. From 30 for 30 Podcasts, this is The Betrayal of Shohei Otani. Presented by Gusto. New episodes available now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we are back. Let's talk Broncos. Let's finish with the Chargers. I've been doing offense first. Let's go defense first here because I had the Broncos as my top defense in football.

42:58For me, that was based... Obviously, they were outstanding last year in almost every single metric possible. But for me, a lot of that was just looking at... I mean, the depth chart to me is so stacked. They're so talented at every level. I think you could argue this is the best secondary in football. The pass rush was one of the best in the NFL. They addressed their holes. So I got a little pushback on that, and that's what I want to discuss with you first. Folks pointed out that they beat up on bad offenses and they lost to some good offenses. So their average opponent was 20th in DVOA last year, which isn't the easiest but it's obviously not that hard so i looked at their worst games well first okay before we get into that i want to i want to hear what you think about that sort of rebuttal that this defense this incredible top three by any whatever way you want slice a defense was beating up on bad teams do you think that there's truth to that i mean i think there is

43:59Steven Ruiz:truth but that was the schedule that was put in front of them i think when you look at this team on paper and you look at the additions to it, I'm right there with you with the optimism. I don't know if I would go number one, but I would certainly go top three with them. And there isn't a split you can find that suggests they were fraudulent last year. And I think usually it's the fraudulent defenses that get exposed by good offenses, particularly good quarterbacks. I think they were a little bit over reliant on the aggressive nature of their defense, especially on first down. They had to win first down.

44:31Steven Ruiz:And if they didn't win first down, things got a little murky after there. And that was harder against the good teams, especially Baltimore, especially Buffalo. But I don't see why they can't be better, even better on first down. I think that was the one split where they were closer to league average than they were to the top of the league. But I think that's the easiest place to improve for them this year, given the personnel additions. So you mentioned Baltimore and Buffalo. So the four worst games of the season they had in EPA per play were, unsurprisingly, Baltimore and Buffalo. or like two of the best defenses in football, the Chargers and the Bengals.

45:03And we remember those games, which I found interesting because you hear Baltimore-Buffalo and you're like, ooh, is it the run defense? But the Chargers and the Bengals were beating them through the air pretty bad. I went back and looked at the NGS game logs to see what happened or what went wrong for them in those games. And one thing that really jumped out is offenses were very opportunistic about attacking whoever was the weakest link on the field, which is always the case when you have Patrick Chertan. They're not going to throw out Patrick Chertan. They're going to throw out someone else. But I looked at the most, the defenders who gave up the most, which is an imperfect stat, I will say, an imperfect metric, but it's a pretty good barometer for what's going on.

45:48So the Bengals, it was Riley Moss who was coming off of the injury and was a real problem coming off of the injury. the chargers according to ngs was one of their linebackers unsurprisingly justice or not this was a major weakness for them uh and the bills game it was pj lock safety uh and then the the ravens it was a backup safety named devon key uh and then jaquan mcmillan also gave up pretty significant yardage so the broncos addressed all of that right like those are they they i feel like when you look at that what you what comes across to me is aside from moss who was still starting corner and who I thought was good when he was healthy, they self-scouted.

46:28They addressed the safety position, the linebacker position. They drafted Jade Barron at nickel. So I feel like, yes, there is some, you know, yes, they got their butts kicked a little bit by really, really dominant offenses, but I think they addressed the biggest problems that led to those losses.

46:47Steven Ruiz:And I think those, those additions were like organic additions. They like fit the identity of this defense and they add to the identity of the defense they they're not you know round pegs in a square hole coming in like drake greenlaw very much fits the personality of this front seven the funga might as well be a front seven guy with how he attacks the line of scrimmage and then jade baron i think is the perfect nickel for this team i i wonder if they're going to use them outside when they are worried about the riley moss matchup but to your point riley boss didn't become a target for opposing offenses until after the injury until later in the year i think he was targeted 14 times in that Bengals game, which is very ridiculous.

47:24Steven Ruiz:But he was targeted the most out of any corner in single coverage last year. And I think that's more of a product of Pat Sertan being on the other side, not Riley Moss. So if you do see him take a step forward, which I think is very possible given what we saw from him early in the season, this defense could be even better than it was last year. I get the question marks and I get advanced Joseph defense is always going to be volatile and you don't know what to expect week to week. But this is the best defense I think he's ever had in terms of personnel and it fits his style of defense perfectly.

47:54Steven Ruiz:I wouldn't be surprised if they finished top of the league in EPA allowed or whatever metric you want to use. And I would be very surprised if they finished outside the top five or top 10. I think the well, first of all, there's, there's a lot to discuss. The, the, the, the scary story you would, I think the other, other than like the play they didn't play anyone argument just talking about there the other thing that maybe brocco's fans could be concerned about is that they follow the same path of like the cleveland browns defense the year after they were the number one and then they fell back to earth under jim schwartz just because stylistically there are some similarities um they're a little bit different the browns defense i would describe as more simplistic like they were just like we're going to rush for and play cover one.

48:45Broncos defense played a ton of cover run, but mixed it up a little bit more on the back end. And I think they get to their pressures in different ways. Okay. The Browns defense fell back to earth in part because they were playing with the worst offense in football. Whatever we were going to get out by the Broncos offense, whatever you think this is far from that. We're going to talk. I I'm way more optimistic. So they're not going to be saddled with that. But I also would say I think they're more substantive, right? Like this is not just a defense with like Miles Garrett and corners who can man up.

49:19They have guys who are good against the run, really good defensive tackles, nice combination of power and speed up front. Like they're just – this is a really well-built unit. And, you know, all of which is to say, I don't think there's any like, like you said, fraudulence to this build. Like you look at the group. I mean, Jonathan Franklin Myers was so good last year. Is he like one of the best players that nobody in the NFL talks? I do. Zach Allen just got paid. But I was just looking at the script. I was like, oh, my God. Like, I can't believe they traded for him. He was fantastic in this defense.

49:54Steven Ruiz:I think, yeah, the comparison to the Browns, I do think makes sense from like a 30 ,000 foot view. But like you said, the Browns suffered injuries that next year, and that really altered the way they could play, especially because they're such a man-dependent team. I think this team could still play man even if they lost the cornerback, not Patrick Sertain. I think that would alter the defense. It would alter any team's defense just because of how they rushed the passer. It's not reliant, like you said, on a four-man rush. And they attack you. I thought the Browns' defense two years ago was an attacking defense because of how the defensive line played.

50:26Steven Ruiz:but this the whole identity for denver is attacking the line of scrimmage and winning on first down and getting you in uncomfortable situations where we see in the stats that it's the hardest to pass so as long as they can win on first down i think we're going to see a repeat of last year's success on second and third down yeah my only concern i think is just dre greenlaw you know and coming off of the injury we didn't see him that much um because it's it's They're not a deep linebacking group. That would be the one area of this defense, but otherwise I feel really good about them. And I feel good about the offense.

50:59Okay. So like I, you know, I said this, this is just radically different from the Browns offense. Of course, last year, they were 15th in past DV away and 24th in rushing DV away. They made similarly to the defense. I think what I would describe as opportunistic and necessary additions. This was one of the best offensive lines in football. nothing it was the best offensive line of football by ESPN metrics nothing to do there a tight end was glaring need you go out at Evan Ingram drafted RJ Harvey in the second round signed JK Dobbins uh receiving group is pretty similar however and some might have argued that that was a need do you feel like we'll get to Bo Nix in a second but do you feel like the players that they've added to this offense make it notably better or do you think that they didn't get enough they didn't

51:49Steven Ruiz:add sufficient needle movers i think it's tough to say just because two of them are rookies like pat bryant becoming a guy a starter i think is going to be a big deal i i know uh sean payton threw out a michael thomas comp but i don't know if i'm i'm accepting sean payton's comps after he threw taysom hill with steve young comp i don't know if i can take him seriously but like you look at his measure measurables i know he didn't run the fastest for anything he was like in the four six but he had it like a very fast 10 yard split and the guy can move like the guy is a big guy who can win contested catch situations but also get open as a route runner so i'm kind of bullish on him and then rj harvey he's going to be better than what they had at running back and he's going to be able to take advantage of what was perhaps the best run blocking offensive line in the league last year i know there are some other teams that can stake claim to that but the the running backs just left so much meat on the bone.

52:38Steven Ruiz:And I think some of the underneath targets left so much meat on the bone in terms of like check down and production after the catch that if some of these guys can come in, like Evan Ingram, I think will be a big boon to those check down numbers because Bo Nix, there was a lot of check downs, which can be a good thing unless you're, you know, losing yardage on them. But I think Evan Ingram will help there. I think RJ Harvey will help there. So there was a lot of meat left on the bone for this offense. And I think they have the personnel to kind of take advantage of that this year and maybe i think we'll widely look at this offensive line as one of the better units in the league do you you know off the top of your head which tight end was the most productive in the broncos offense last year was it no it wasn't it was lucas krull oh i didn't know that 19 catches yeah they barely got anything out of their tight ends yeah like it was just like whatever you think of evan ingram and i i would say he's you know solidly a top 10 tight end that's a massive upgrade for them back i think well i'll be interested in seeing how they end up splitting things between dobbins and um rj harvey probably there's a lot of that's going to go into that in terms of how payton feels about them and past protection but harvey has a ton of juice dobbins you know i think he's okay you know coming off the injury we'll see um but i i do feel like they are not only, not only do they address their biggest weaknesses, they added players, you talked about this, who are a good fit for what they want to do with Bo Nix.

54:10And I think if I had to, you know, give like an overarching thesis of the Broncos offense, that's why I feel pretty good about it. I think that Sean Payton has a very, very deep understanding of how to optimize this quarterback. And I know that sounds like I'm damning over the face. race. I swear I'm not Broncos fans. I just think he's not trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. And there are things that Bo Nix is good at that I think Peyton, especially as the year went on, will continue to lean into. He's a good RPO quarterback. You'll want to use a lot of play action. He was third in designed rollouts last year.

54:52He is comfortable throwing on the run. We saw this in college as well. He is athletic. That's a part of the offense too. But it was a pretty weak skill group last year. I think once they figured out how to kind of unlock Marvin Mims, that really helped a lot in addition to copy C. Sutton, still good. So I feel like if last year this passing attack was average, which is exactly where they fell, year two, better players, even better understanding of the quarterback, there's no reason why it can't take another jump. Yeah.

55:24Steven Ruiz:And I think he has some very clear areas of improvement that I think are attainable. Like I'm not going to be like, oh, he's going to turn around his pocket presence and become Joe Burrow in one year. But maybe if he creates more big plays when he does get outside the pocket, I know he created a lot with, you know, designed rollouts. But when he got into the scramble drill, he didn't have a single big time throw the whole entire season, according to PFF. And I think if he can add that to his game and become a dangerous playmaker out of structure, I think that just adds another layer to the offense.

55:54Steven Ruiz:I think he's more judicial with when he checks the ball down and when he bails out of the pocket. I think that adds another layer to the offense. And now you're talking about a fringe top 10 offense with a top five defense. And to me, that's a playoff contender and a team that's very capable of winning one or two games in the playoffs. Two things I'd really like to see him improve at this year, one of which you mentioned, which is when he breaks the pocket, I'd like to see a passing game. because he was third league wide in quarterback scrambles, which is crazy. But he was 33rd in on-target rate when he threw while scrambling, 25th passing rating.

56:32So that you want to – I'm not saying he has to be Patrick Mahomes slinging it 50 yards downfield to, I guess, Troy Frykowitz, Devon Bailey. I don't know. I just want to see some intermediate place coming off of that. And then the other thing is – and I think he can absolutely improve upon this in year two because we've seen a lot with young quarterbacks, the Blitz. You know, Bo Nix in the second half of the season improved in a lot of metrics throwing downfield. He was much better at, I thought, because when they did drop shot plays for them, he hit a few pretty big ones. But and then the rushing, I thought as well.

57:09But the Blitz numbers actually got worse in the second half of the season. I think his defense is kind of keyed in on that a bit. So that was something I think that's something you want to see Sean Payton really work at him for year two. And he will. I mean, I think Sean Payton's going to give him answers. I think, like you said, Evan Ingram and RJ Harvey in space are much better than Lucas Krull and Javante Williams throwing the catch in the football. So if Payton can give him answers, and I think those skill players who are improved can do more with the ball in your hands, yeah, you feel pretty good about the trajectory of this offense.

57:47Steven Ruiz:So what are you thinking for like in terms of ceiling floor and ceiling for their win total? Well, we're going to do rankings at the end. Okay. We'll wait on that. But absolutely a playoff team. I'll say that. I view this. I mean, this is the best defense in the NFL. Where would you, where do you, before we move on defensively, I had them one. I went Denver, Houston, Baltimore, Philadelphia were my top four. I think I would put Houston first, but I think I would put Denver second. There you go. They're so talented, guys. This secondary is so good. I mean, yeah, I don't know. I don't know what's not to like with this defense.

58:33I'm pushing back against the pushback I got.

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1:00:30Steven Ruiz:Success is no longer about hard work alone. It's about using AI to accelerate impact. Service Titan is the only integrated intelligence that seamlessly automates your entire workflow, from first call to final invoice. Born in the trades, built for visionaries ready to stop operating and start automating. Service Titan, AI for the trades. All right. The Los Angeles Charters, the final team. Let's go offense first with this one. Did you watch the All-Fang game, by the way? I did not. I'm sorry. I was not watching that. I saw the Trey Lance clips. Trey Lance redemption season. Yeah. He might be QB too, which could matter at some point in this offense.

1:01:15But of course, for now, the QB is Justin Herbert. receiving group lad mcconkey trey harris quentin johnson with jaylen reager and keandre lambert smith who was also good in the hall of fame game by the way who's a guy that is getting a lot of camp hype uh the tight ends will does lead tyler conklin backs omarion hampton and i guess naji harris don't really know what's going on there uh offensive line is mostly the same with mckay becton in the fold although he is hurt don't love that no that's gonna be a problem that's gonna be your problem and zion johnson apparently didn't take to center too well and they put bradley

1:01:52Steven Ruiz:bozeman there and zion johnson's back at left guard now so that's like another it's similar to the situation with the raiders and jpj where that's a big red flag to me as well did you know that justin herbert who was bad in the playoff game was pressured on 50 percent of dropbacks in against the houston texas who we just talked about unbelievable pass rush but 50 he had the highest quick pressure rate in that game of any quarterback in any playoff game he he was bad but i don't think he was historically bad which the number the interception numbers in particular suggest like we could explain away three of the four interceptions very easily he was in hell he was in hell in which he that brings out the worst of a quarterback and what like my thing with the the justin herbert playoff game i'm not denying that he played poorly that it was very embarrassing for a guy like me who has a lot of Justin Herbert stock but my question is what's your takeaway from that game that he's turnover prone because the guy just came off like the the best interception prevention season we may have ever seen in the NFL yeah I I I think it's it's because the Chargers uh you know gave up the big lead and the last time he was in the playoffs which that game I don't think he played bad to be honest this game he played bad But I guess it's all about the resume for folks.

1:03:12But we'll talk about Herbert in a second. I wanted to start with the offensive line because my optimism for the Chargers centers entirely on an improved interior offensive line because I think it was underappreciated how big of an issue it was as the season went on and then it came to a real head in the playoffs. And this was a team that was not good at running the football. They were eighth in past DBA, 21st in a rush DBA way. And to Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh's credit, they didn't force the issue. They realized they were bad at running the football. And so they stopped running the football as the year went on.

1:03:54And then this offseason, they said, never again. Go out, get Amari in Hampton, get Najee Harris, get Mekhi Becton. But if Becton is injured and the offensive line isn't better, you worry about how improved it'll actually be, even though I'm very excited about Ryan Hampton in this offense.

1:04:10Steven Ruiz:Yeah. The one thing I will say is if you, if there's a quarterback that can deal with interior pressure, it's Justin Herbert. I think he doesn't get nearly enough credit for making this offensive line look way better than it's actually been when you watch it over the last four years or however long he's been in the league. But it's the run game that I feel like, yes i will give greg roman credit for changing things up over the second half but you look at the roster and this is still very much a team that's built to be a run first unit and if they're not and they don't have the personnel to support a pass first offense they were going to be in the same boat as last year where the first good defense they come across especially one that can generate a pass rush like houston it's going to give them a lot of problems and put justin herbert in hell and he's going to rely on this wide receiver core which i think looks better on paper hopefully if Trey Harris is what they want him to be, the second round pick.

1:05:04Steven Ruiz:It seems like they're treading water. I don't see them improving. I feel like Denver, I could make an easy case for Denver being a much better team than they were last year. I cannot do the same for the Chargers. The team or the offense? Clarify. The offense. And honestly, if you take a step back, the entire team. See, I think I'm more optimistic about the Chargers offense improving, and I'm pessimistic about the Chargers defense regressing personally. but I don't I think that optimism comes from the fact that they were just so bad at running the football they're 29th in a rushing success rate last year 29th there was an improvement on years prior by the way because they were yeah this was my favorite like bar do you actually watch the games team because by the end of the season people were like still like here comes the dominant chargers run game jim harbaugh and I was like you guys are not watching this team they can't run the football at all they had those like two explosive jk dobbins runs in the first two weeks and that paced the entire production for the run game um so to go back to what i was saying i do think there'll be some proof because i omarion hampton is massive massive upgrade to me i mean that dude is good lord he's impressive um i think he's going to be a really complete back for them too i think they'll use him as an outlet as a pass catcher too and i do like trey harris but he's a rookie.

1:06:21Like he is a rookie. And he also hit the profile of rookie that he is, which is the big ball winner is, has very mixed record early on in the NFL. We've seen that, you know, the Keon Coleman types. Um, I just think lab economy is so damn good that if they can get anything out of the rest of the group, I think they'll be fine.

1:06:45Steven Ruiz:He's the first, I was gonna say, oh yeah, can we talk about him? I just love him so much. he's the the first ever white slot receiver that i think is very underrated like i think he gets put in the same bucket as those guys but like you watch him play and he's not one of those guys like he's not he obviously can get open and he's a reliable possession guy if he wants to be but this guy can run away from defensive backs and make plays you saw that a bunch of times fourth in yards per route run versus man coverage do you know how insane that is and to your point a lot of it was um i've talked about this roman would put him in these bunches in these condensed formations create a bunch of traffic and he would just run away because he was a lot faster than he was given credit for it yeah i think he's so good i think he's so complete um but he is at his best in the slot and so ideally harris like on paper harris and maybe keandre lembert smith too you know who's a bigger fast guy would be quentin johnson on paper is the kind of player you want with him, but yeah, I'm not doing that.

1:07:47Steven Ruiz:His hands are made out of paper, apparently. I don't know. Paper?

1:07:54Trey Harris doesn't have Johnson's separation ability, but he has significantly better contested cash hand. He could also help them in the red zone, which is where things really ground down to halt. Herbert was fifth in QBR outside of the red zone, 27th inside of it. I once again am asking him to run more to scramble. That was crazy to me in the Texans game that he didn't have a single scramble. I just, if I had to lobby, you know, like one, that's what I would criticize Justin Herbert for. Yeah. It doesn't get, it's the playmate lack of scrambling because he's athletic, but he doesn't do it.

1:08:38Steven Ruiz:I think we've seen his scramble rate kind of tick up and tick up like every year. but I do agree that he's leaving a lot of meat on the bone there. And like, you could raise it. He could probably double his scramble rate, honestly. And it would just put so much more pressure on the defense, but it's tough when you play in a Greg Roman offense. And we saw this when Lamar Jackson was there, you're, you're putting a great athlete who would be very dangerous in space in the most condensed situations and the most condensed offense possible. It just cramps everything. And I think that's why you solve problems in the red zone.

1:09:08Steven Ruiz:And I think the lack of detail and the route running, the route concepts is another big reason why the, the red zone struggles happened and we saw that in Baltimore that's my pause with the great with Greg Roman is that every single stop he's had the problems have been the same yes yeah and he's needed a great offensive line especially on the interior to get the most out of his run game and they just don't have that and now you're putting Scott Matlock on the field and he's like honestly just let Scott Matlock play defensive tackle because I think he's a much better defensive tackle than he is a fullback but i guess he wants to do the patrick ricard thing all over again i don't know they could use him in this defense get to in a second defensive tackle yeah i i kind of joked when roman was hired that i would give it two years before the fan base started agitating and turning on him i think if this offense doesn't take a leap this year in terms of the run game you probably see that mid-season much hinges on mckay becton being healthy in my opinion um before we move on to the defense, I do have to ask if Justin Herbert and Geno Smith were both dangling off of a cliff and all of film Twitter or whatever you want to call it, the NFL nerds had to save one guy.

1:10:22Who do you think they would save?

1:10:25Steven Ruiz:I think film nerds as a whole would save Justin Herbert. Me personally, I would save Geno, my lord and savior. But also because I feel like Justin Herbert could just save himself. I mean, the man's Superman. He can handle it. He's played behind this offensive line for four years and has come out just fine. Yeah. Well, that's the other thing with the scrambles. And, you know, he's been hurt. I mean, he had a high ankle sprain last year. That lane, you know, and then he missed. Didn't even notice it, though. He was still, like, throwing it amazing. So hopefully he has been healthy this offseason, which I think could also be pretty significant for them, having, like, a full healthy offseason and hopefully continued health.

1:11:01All right. The defense. So I left them out of my top 10 defense. I don't think, I haven't seen or heard anyone having them, even though last year they radically outperformed many people's expectations, including my own. Ended up finishing sixth against the pass, which is crazy. 17th against the run. So there are some changes. Notably, Joey Bosa, who was, of course, injured for much last year, is gone. Puna Ford is gone. um cornerback room christian fulton is gone let's start with puna who is my who is the geno smith of defensive tackles so uh he had played the most snaps of any defensive tackle last year led the uh group in run stops unsurprisingly it was a he kind of bet on himself with a one-year deal and then leverage that into joining the Rams.

1:12:01I am worried about the run defense sustaining. Even last year, they were slightly below average, but they were largely able to contain explosives. They tackled really well behind him. Diane Henley is an absolute superstar. We'll get to him in a second. But this defense played with the fourth highest light box rate in football, gender Jesse Minter. can they continue to do that with Deshaun Hand, Tired Tartt, they drafted Jamari Caldwell or are you worried about this defense getting run on?

1:12:37Steven Ruiz:I'm definitely worried about it I think this defense last year especially was the defense that Brandon Staley had imagined like we're not we're going to give up four yards rushing but we're not going to give up 14 and we're not going to give up explosive run plays and we're going to get you in third along and then you're going to struggle in third and long because every passing game does i i think they have to be better on first down this year i think when you look at the splits it was a little lopsided towards later downs than early downs and i'm concerned about that because good quarterbacks tore this defense up like if you take out all the games you could say the same things you said about denver's defense having an easy schedule about the chargers uh defense but if you look at the games with not even just like the great quarterbacks on their schedule but like quarterbacks that we would consider top 16 they allowed 0.2 epa per drop back against them and on late downs they averaged they gave up 0.31 epa which is basically an mvp season against guys like baker mayfield kyler murray obviously joe burrow was in there patrick mahomes was in there but this i think was a defense that can be exploited by good offenses and it kind of reminds me of the bills defenses over the last couple of years where against the dregs of the afc east they're going to look great and they're going to get out to the pass or they're going to force turnovers.

1:13:47Steven Ruiz:But against the Patrick Mahomes and the Joe Burrows, they're going to get diced up. And the other part of that is they rushed five a lot. And that could be on early downs. It could be on late downs. But they were a team that really thrived when they rushed five. But when they rushed four and they weren't adding extra bodies to the rush or the run defense, they got exposed a little bit. And I think there's a limit, an expiration date, when you are getting by on defense with solid scheme. You need talent, and I think, especially along the defensive line, that's where they're lacking talent the most, and I think that's where there were problems last year, which I think they were hit because you played a bad schedule and that you got good results, but I think we could see some of those holes start to pop up this year.

1:14:31Yeah, they were a really well-coached defense with good players and some really solid young players, but they didn't have stars, I think is how I would put it. And I think that's kind of what you're describing, which is against these big quarterback stuff and you need stars. Maybe Diane Hemley could become a star. Certainly looks like it. The young corners were great last year. Dermon James, I guess, would probably be their biggest star at this point. And I think that he definitely returned to form and you really felt like some symbiosis between him and Jesse Minter in terms of how he was used.

1:15:14But if your star is your hybrid safety nickel, I do worry about not the absence of a lockdown corner or a pass rusher.

1:15:24Steven Ruiz:Especially when you have to blitz him to get the most out of him. You don't have to blitz him, but he's a very effective blitzer. I think he led the NFL in sacks on five-man rushes, which just tells you how good he is when you get him in the right matchup with the right pass blocker. but that does take away from coverage and I think that's when it shows up is against the good quarterbacks especially the teams they're afraid to blitz because if you look at some of these games against Mahomes and Burrow they were kind of afraid to send that fifth guy and then their defense got exposed so I think the secondary is good like guys like Tarheep still certainly took advantage of the opportunities they were given but I do wonder if they weren't given that extra half second because the pass rush was getting home how do they look yeah yeah they played a lot of dime james also had to play like he played some nickel because they don't really have a solid i guess still could play inside but then your problem is you're just creating they're not deep in the secondary and if you shuffle the deck a little bit you're just creating new problems like if you played your names the nickel you're creating a problem problem at safety if you have still inside well who's playing opposite cam heart it's just kind of there's good players and there's good young players but there's not enough maybe or there's and um the edge rush just isn't i mean Khalil Mack's 34 years old.

1:16:36Tui Tui Pelotu just hasn't really taken – he's always been the perpetual, like, this guy's going to take the leap this year, and he just hasn't quite taken the leap. They drafted Kyle Canard, who was very productive in South Carolina. See if they get anything out of him. It just feels like a defense. I talked about this – I compared them to the Packers when I did my top 10 defenses, and I ended up getting an edge to the Packers because I felt like they just had more studs. Yeah. But they are similar to me in that they're defenses that kind of played over their talent level in some ways. And the charge defense is the one where I look at them and I think, hmm, I could see them taking a little.

1:17:13I think they're still going to be good. I certainly would. I'd probably put them in the 10-15 range this year. They're obviously very well coached. Jesse Minter obviously has the goods, right? I just don't think there's enough talent here for me to put them in the top 10.

1:17:28Steven Ruiz:Yeah, that's why I made the Bills comp. I think they're going to be good. that you look at the regular season as the totality of it all. And I think they're going to be a top half of the league defense. But when they go against good teams, I just think they're going to get exposed a little bit, which that's what happens when you don't have the talent. And I agree, their young talent is promising. So they could take a step forward and kind of bridge that gap. And if that happens, then they could very well be a top 10 defense again. But I think they were another defense that really benefited from a ball control offense as well, because they just didn't turn the ball over at all.

1:17:59well I think that's going to continue so I think again to go back to complimentary football wow this team was 26 in pressure rate when they didn't blitz by the way that's bad um yeah I think you know if the run defense remains solid I think losing forward is big then they're going to be put in situations where they can get after the quarterback and they'll be able to blitz right so situationally if the offense is good if the office especially if the offense is better at running the football this year, which will help him stay on the field even longer. You can see the defense profiting from that still playoff team to me, right?

1:18:35Like, Hey, that's what makes this tricky because, um, I think the way I would sum it up for the chargers is there's still a playoff team. I obviously, we haven't even talked to Jim Harbaugh, obviously still got it. But when I think about them hitting their high-end case, much depends on some speculation. Can they get more pass rush out of a young guy? Can the young corners hold up? Can one of, whether it's a Marianne Hampton or Trey Harris, can rookies be huge contributors? You know?

1:19:13Steven Ruiz:Can Khalil Mack do what he did last year, which I think is a big question mark as he gets older. Yeah. All right. Ranking these teams is difficult. I went first last time. I'm going to make you go first this time. So we're doing – this is how we think it'll shake out the AFC West. All right. I'm going to go – I'm going to take the Chiefs, the boring pick, to finish at the top of the division. I feel like I – if you would have asked me before we did this pod, I would have said Los Angeles in second. but I think we've talked me into putting Denver second. And then I'll go Los Angeles third, Las Vegas fourth.

1:19:54Steven Ruiz:As for what I want to happen, like what would be the most fun, I think Las Vegas being second would lead to the most exciting season. I have the same ranking as you, which I think shouldn't be surprising to anyone who's talking to me or heard me talk about the Broncos defense this year. I'm just so high on them. I think they're clearly the best defense in the division, arguably the best defense in the NFL, if the offense is merely above average, which I think they will be. This team is pretty solid. Is it enough to challenge the Chiefs? I mean, I'm still optimistic about the Chiefs' offense, as I've said, and I think they're going to be able to play a pretty similar brand of football to what we saw last year.

1:20:35Chargers' offense, I think, takes a step forward. Defense, I think, takes a step back, which has them about the same. Raiders, very exciting offense, but just too many holes on that defense for me to vault them over the rest of the teams.

1:20:47Steven Ruiz:And I think the Chiefs just match up well with all of these teams. Like the Chargers have a good defense and a good offense, but I think the Chiefs' defense matches up so well with their defense that that game's always going to be low scoring, and you just expect Pat Mahomes to make the plays in the end. And then the same is true for Denver. If you have to blitz Pat Mahomes, it's going to be a bad game. Well, Denver doesn't have to, though. That's why I think those games could be a little bit dicey because Denver doesn't – they get pressure with four. Yeah, that's a good point. But I do think the Chiefs defense matches up well with how Denver wants to operate on offense.

1:21:16Steven Ruiz:So those games are going to be low scoring as well. All right. Stephen, where can folks find your work this NFL season? You can find me on the Ringer. I'm going to be on the Ringer NFL show. Quarterback rankings come out a week before the season. So I still have three weeks of peace of mind before that just ruins my psyche for the next four months. Have you thought about how high you're going to rank Gina this year? Yeah, he's going to be top 10. I already called it. I forgot where he landed on my, I think maybe just outside the top 10 on the quarterback draft pod. But this is, we'll see if the Raiders offense is anything like we think it could be.

1:21:55It could end up being a good early call for Gino nation. All right. That has been the AFC West. We'll be back next week with the NFC South with John Ledyard. If you like television, go check out my TV pod with David Dennis Jr. We are doing Perfect Match and then we are doing the new Alien show, the Noah Hawley show. Are you an Aliens guy at all?

1:22:18Steven Ruiz:I'm not. I've seen the movies but I'm not going to check out the series probably. Hey. I will watch Perfect Match though. You got me there. Thank you as always to everyone at Omaha Productions who works on this show. Kirsten Sebecki, Sebecki, Anthony Jimenez, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Tash. If you guys missed a live show in Seattle, by the way, and you somehow are listening to this, we put it out earlier this week. So go check that out in audio or YouTube. All right. See you guys next week.

1:23:00This episode is brought to you by ChatGPT. Hey, it's Bill Simmons from the Bill Simmons podcast. Have you guys heard about ChatGPT work? It's the new way to use ChatGPT for bigger multi-step projects. And when you need more than just answers, give ChatGPT work access to your apps and files, and it can create real work documents like spreadsheets, slides, and structured reports. Get started at ChatGPT.com by selecting work mode available on Plus and Pro plans.