Pack to the Future? Picking Surprise Division Winners

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0:33welcome back to the beanie time show featuring lenny bill barnwell is here we are getting perilously close to the beginning of the season perilously is maybe the wrong word that sounds like it's a bad thing it's a very good thing um bill i am so excited to see you we've been doing nfl live together but it's been a long time since you were on the pod of course the host of the bill barnwell show how what is your excitement level on a scale of one through ten for cowboys eagles in one and a half weeks i'm very excited for the game there's like a broader grind of the season thing that's changing this is my first season with a child um which we had during the off season so the idea of like taking care of a small human being and staying up till like 4 a.m on sundays not sure how it's going to work but i am very excited about the first game of the year because let's say thursday and thursday night is a safe space where nothing bad can happen uh yeah hopefully may the time you're listening to this the micah parsons stuff has been resolved our long national nightmare will be ended um because that would make that game a lot more interesting of course i will be previewing that game and all of the games week one with ben solak who was also by the way he's going on paternity leave now yes i know we're kind of we're kind of playing into the wire with him um there's gonna be another pod next tuesday taylor kiles who does a great job joining the pats is going to join me for that one it's not to talk about the pats he just does but uh today this week it's i'm taking sort of a team centric approach as we face the season michael jr and i will be doing our annual team draft later in the week uh and but you and i are doing something different it was a kind of a game i suppose or an exercise, a thought exercise.

2:20So I've been doing division previews, which are over now. And at the end of every division preview, we rank the teams, right? How do we think they're going to finish? And I would say, I have to go back and look, but almost all of them, we picked the favorites, which is their favorites for a reason. Vegas knows what they're doing. So I asked you to come on today and help me go through every division and make a case for someone other than the betting favorite to win the division and kind of explain why that might happen. This doesn't necessarily mean it's – it does not mean it's either of our picks.

2:56It's just a thought exercise because the favorites often don't win. So you're doing the NFC. I am doing the AFC. I shall go first. Okay. With the AFC West. okay oh this is gonna be a tough one it's a good division yes i went with i think what is a little bit of an easy answer the denver broncos but i want to oh you didn't think i was gonna go broncos i i i don't know if that's the easy answer would you say the broncos are ahead of the chargers in terms of like likely teams to be thrown the chiefs absolutely wow i think so i know well and you say well the chargers have best quarterback right he's one of the five or six best quarterbacks in the nfl that's usually a great coach good defense last year but let me explain to you why i think the broncos could do this okay last year the chiefs had an extremely unsustainable statistically number of close wins i will say i just by the chiefs fans if you're yelling i tend to believe the patrick mahomes andy reed combination does negate that to this the but there were also like insane things that happen like missed field goals weird penalties whatever yeah so the chiefs okay according to ftn which is used to be football outsiders the chiefs were the strongest over performing team since the merger by pythagorean wins they finished 15 and 2.

4:24they had 10.2 pythagorean wins so uh pythagorean wins is the formula based on point differential that calculates how many wins a team should have. The Broncos finished with 10 wins in reality and had 11.5 Pythagorean wins. So, all right, get it, get it. I got more. You know what I'm going to say, right? About how they got to that 11 and a half win total. Do you remember what happened in week 18? The Chiefs game? The Chiefs game where the Chiefs had a chance to fulfill my preseason prediction with you and Dominique and win 16 games and andy reed got okie doked me by rolling out carson wentz and benching every one of his players and the barcos won like a hundred to nothing okay so that might be distorting the evidence a little bit but i i'm willing to go along with you on this ride they're closer by their point differential than their records would indicate so that's the start of my argument for the broncos the other two things i will say uh i picked this as the best defense in the nfl even if and just to get ahead of it yes they had a lot of turnovers but all the underlying metrics suggest they were a great defense as well people say well they didn't play anyone even opponent adjusted uh metrics suggest and throw out the numbers just look at the talent up at every level i love the additions that they made on defense offensively so this is a team again that had 11 and a half Pythagorean wins with an elite defense and what was, I think it's safe to say a mediocre offense, right?

6:0315th in passing DVA, 24th in rushing DVA. Broncos fans are going to be so mad at you for using that word, you know? I'm about to say that I think this offense is going to be better than mediocre this year. They were average last year. I'm sorry, it's just what it was. The rushing in particular stands out as something that I think could improve with the change they've had at the running back position. I think more likely than not, Bo Nix will improve on his rookie season, part because he plays in a fantastic infrastructure. This is one of the best, if not the best offensive lines in football. And oh, by the way, this Sean Payton guy, pretty freaking good at coaching, turns out.

6:39But Bo Nix in particular, like, look, regardless of what you think of his ceiling is, he was undeniably better in the second half of the year. I think that him and Payton kind of figured out what are his strengths? How do we build this offense around him, got better at picking his spots when he did push the ball downfield. He's a good scrambler. I like the additions there also on that side of the ball. Evan Ingram I thought was a good pickup. That's my case for the Denver Broncos beating the Chiefs. Elite defense, elite coach, improved offense, and they were better than the record indicated last year.

7:19There's a little bit of hand-waving here, though. A little bit of like, oh but they didn't play anybody who cares they had one win before that chiefs game last year against a playoff team or sorry a team with a winning record last season i think it was the bucks the bucks yeah who only had like one of the best offenses in the nfl by the way also a team by the way who uh outperformed their photographer underperforming with that green expectation they were really good last year by their point differential i do think there's some element of a narrative being spun here about bo nix where early in the year he really struggled first few weeks of the year i think he had a lower first down rate than deshaun watson which is really hard to do given how bad deshaun watson was last year and i think there was this sort of um enterprise level sort of like oh he's just starting his career uh you could throw that out when he got better in the ensuing games and i think the reason he got better in the ensuing games is that he really struggled he was struggled against bad teams and the schedule got much easier and they were not playing from behind they were not playing in situations where uh he had to throw to catch up they weren't playing against great defenses and we saw in games where they did play great defenses or even competitive defenses Bo Nix did struggle to me um and I think more importantly than the struggle I think Sean Payton was very conservative in how he used Bo Nix in those spots there was like a Chargers game where he was averaging like one air yard per throw you know through the first three quarters of the game and then eventually they had some success in the first half it went on in the second half um the Ravens game you know when they got down early he was unable to throw them back in the Bills game, where he has an awesome touchdown early in the game, looks great, and that's the only touchdown they score the entire game.

8:54My concern is facing a tougher schedule this year, not being able maybe to shield him as much. I think there's like this, as fans, I think they get frustrated when they hear this, but it's true. And I think it's a credit to Sean Payton, not an insult to Sean Payton. They were really aggressive in shielding him in a lot of spots last year. You know, third and long, they were not going to drop him back if they could avoid it. They were going to throw, you know, a swing to Marvin Mims. They were going to throw a screen. They were going to run an RPO. They were going to throw in early downs when they could because, number one, their drop by the sign run game was not very good.

9:31And number two, it kept them out of third and long, hopefully. You know, those spots were positives for Bo Nix. They ran a ton of plays because the defense was really good. And so he had really, I think, very solid cumulative stats that maybe take some of the out of them because they're not going to run as many plays potentially this upcoming season but i do think that's where it starts right like if the if the broncos are going to be significantly better than their record was a year ago it has to come through bonix and i think it has to come you think so see that's what i'm disputing here i'm arguing that that because i believe the defense is going to be elite because i think this offensive line is still going to be good yeah bonix was not great in you know he wasn't playing from behind very often but when you look at those numbers They're not good, obvious dropback situations.

10:16I just don't think he's going to be in them that much, man. I think this offense is going to protect him a lot, and all he has to be is slightly improved with a better run game. One of the things he really struggled with last year, too, was his play against the Blitz. And I just think, when I think about Sean Payton and what are the things they can get better at as an offense this year, that's something that I feel like, I think that there's obvious spots where he can help him improve. without putting in the onus on him he doesn't I think my whole case for Denver is that Bo Nix does not have to be a top 12 13 14 quarterback for this team to get away with winning the division because of how good everything is around him but are we not doing the thing where we assume everything that was great last year is going to be great this year 100 % everything that wasn't good I'm just looking at the talent this year I just think that the talent just too much talent on this defense.

11:10Same way I felt about some of the other top defenses last year. There's tons of talent on that defense. And I don't think they're going to be bad necessarily, but things go right that aren't going to go right from year after year. You have maybe a half dozen potential turnovers that instead of being interceptions, they fall to the ground. That totally changes the complexion of your season in some ways. I agree with you. If the offensive line is as good as it was last year, which on paper it should be, if the defense is as good as it was last year, on paper it should be, Bowdoin can be the guy he was last year and they can win 11 games i agree with you wholeheartedly but what if the offensive line has you know garrett bowles goes down in week four for suddenly they're they're at the offensive line what if for example um pat sartan is not you know the best cornerback in football what if he's only like the seventh or eighth best cornerback in football um that changes things and then suddenly now there's more on bo nix's shoulders i think my concern is i'm still not totally sure i feel comfortable putting that on Bo Nix's shoulders.

12:07And to bring it all the way back to what we talked about previously, I still kind of think the Chargers, who also made significant additions to the year, they did lose for Sean Slater for the entire season. I was going to say, you're throwing out a high, but wow, what if the Browns offensive line, someone gets hurt? The Chargers starting left tackle did get hurt. It happened in reality. And I am heavily... A Chargers player getting injured before the season? No. I'm selling them. I don't, because I think that the defense for L, like when I look at just like the two defenses on both teams, I look at the Broncos and I'm like, the charge defense really outkicked their, you know, coverage last year, so to speak.

12:45But I look at just, I just look at the rosters and I'm like, this Denver depth charge is just so much better than the chargers. Like, where are you getting pass rush from outside of Khalil Mack? Where are you getting, like there's cornerbacks are really unproven. There's just questions. I think they'll be good. We got to, we got to keep moving if we're going to get through all this. But I just think that the Denver has a better roster, and that's kind of, even if the Chargers have a better quarterback. All right, give me the NFC West. NFC West. Okay, I'm going with the Arizona Cardinals. And this was a surprise to me, Mina.

13:14Yes, the fun pick. Everyone's like nerdy favorite team. I did not know this until I researched for this podcast. Do you know who led the NFC West to DVOA last year? Do you know who had the best point differential in the NFC West? I didn't know about the point differential, but I knew for the Cardinals, DVOA is really high. Point differential. Seahawks, by the way, last in DVOA in the NFC West last season. There is this kind of perception that I think we have seen whatever from Kyler Murray. Like, we know what he is. He's just OK. He's a little better than league average. They have been a top 10 offense by EPA for play since he came back in 2023.

13:52And yes, he has some playmakers. He has James Conner. He has Trey McBride. half a year in 2023, they did not have a Marvin Harrison Jr. level wide receiver. And even last year, Marvin Harrison Jr. was not the difference maker, I think, a lot of people hoped. And so, you know, we talk about some of the great coaches in football. Kevin O 'Connell, for example, his Vikings are below the Cardinals knee pay-per-play. Kevin O 'Connell is a great coach, but Drew Petsing and I think Kyler Murray deserve a lot of credit. This offense does not have a ton of, you know, super exciting, transcendent players is really playing really well.

14:27They're holding up their end of the bargain. If the defense had been any good, this would have been a playoff team last year. And I don't see any reason to think that the offense is going to get significantly worse this season. Yeah. I, the Cardinals are such a funny one because I think you're right. The, the overall season numbers are surprising when you bring them up to most people. Like, did you know this offense was 11th in DVO? The defense actually finished 14th, which is like, I think better than most people would expect. I think, okay, so first of all, we should probably talk about like why the offense felt worse than it was.

15:02And that to me, it was just the ups and downs. It was such a, and it was, they were, I've talked about this before, but they were second in variance on offense, which is another FTA metric. So it was on net over the course of the season very good but it was chaotic and with kyler there were ups and downs i think the strongest case for them is actually the other side of the ball which is a for sure yeah like if the offense is similar i think you could look at this often to say i could see them being 11th again which would be a win because whatever but the defense is where they've invested so much in terms of talent wise right adding josh sweat calais campbell down tomlinson drafting Walter Nolan, who's hurt right now, and Will Johnson.

15:44If they can just be more normal, why can't you be normal? While also mixing in some of the creativity that Nick Rallis has bought, I think you can absolutely make a case for the defense kind of meeting the offense. Let's say they both are around 11th. And in an NFC West that I feel as clustered as any division in full, do you agree with me there? I think the NFC West is as wide open as any division right now. For sure. Any of the four teams could, they could finish. I had Jordan Rodriguez on to preview this division, and I was like, at the end, I really didn't want to rank the teams because I truly felt like I had no idea how to do it.

16:20Yes, it is totally going to come down to who's healthy. You know, not that there's any major injuries that the Rams and I guess the Cardinals are dealing with Walter Nolan, but the Rams are dealing with, the Niners are like half their rosters injured. It could just come down to that. I really think it is going to be so tight in this division. But the Cardinals were the best team in the division by advanced metrics last year. and that was before all the defensive additions they made that was before um getting healthier and they have the they had the fourth most injured defense on football last year by adjusted games lost and that's with a defense that now after chaos is i think a charitable way to describe it like they were just constantly trying to confuse opposing teams that was their only move it was it it was just like i remember being a little kid and like not wanting to fight somebody and like, you know, you just like make lots of noises and like make random moves because you just want to have to avoid the fight.

17:11They were 28 last year in pressure rate when they only rushed four. That's going to change this year. They are going to be better rushing four. They're still going to have all those, you know, levers they can pull, but I think they're going to be better in coverage here. I think Will Johnson's going to be a very underrated draft pick for them. And I do think they're going to have the ability to just win up front. And if you can do that, that really unlocks a lot you can do on defense. And so to me, again, I don't want to be the everything that went right last year is going to go better and everything that went wrong is going to be improved.

17:40But there is a case of them being a top 10 team on both sides of the football this year. If I had a war V, I think the run game has been such a source of stability for this offense. And it's been a big part of and having Kyler Murray back there healthy helps a lot in that regard. And he said they're saying he's going to scramble more, which is I think would be massive. But James Conner is getting up in the years. they've got some depth behind in you have Benson DiMarcardo but like I would say I'm like oh do we really think this run game can continue to be as it's so unique they love putting two three tight ends on the field Freeman baby yeah right um but I just I do worry a little bit about James Connor potentially hitting a wall at his age but um like I said NFC West actually we're so a little peek behind the curtain Bill you initially picked the Niners who are a bit of an analytic starling this offseason because they were so injured last year and because they have such an easy schedule, which Mike and I are going to talk about.

18:38But they're the favorites right now. Did that surprise you before we move on, that they were the betting favorites over the Rams? Yeah, really upsetting, because I've done all the work to prepare for the Niners and had to prep the Cardinals this morning. But it was actually really useful for the purposes of this podcast. When I was doing it, I was talking myself into it. I was like, yeah, the Cardinals. I buy it. Totally see it. Totally see it i worked on this for a year and vegas just tweeted it out vegas is smart man they know stuff uh i mean they they like the rams i think are the conventional thought to be the favorite for all right uh we're gonna do the afc east next because i think i have a surprising pick so the bills are the favorite obviously yeah i'm gonna go dolphins here yeah you probably thought i was gonna say the patriots the patriots are everybody's favorite making the leap team okay let me make you could have given me jets you could have given me jets i would have been like i don't i don't necessarily see but that's fun okay uh so here here's here's my case they all have easy schedules because they've seized so you can look they're all at the bottom of they all have they they all face amongst the easiest pages have a slightly easier schedule but they're both they're all bottom you know um last year when to a tongue of iloa came back so the second half of the season the miami dolphins were fourth league wide and drop back success rate eighth in passing epa per play so just a reminder when to a tongue of iloa is in the lineup this is not just a competent offense it is statistically one of the better offenses in the NFL.

20:19Let me keep going here. They were weighed down by a very, shall we say, lackluster run game. I believe in Mike McDaniel's ability to fix that. I know that there was a linear reasons why they were bad last year, but I think they obviously invested in the interior, the offensive line. This is a big priority for the team. I think the tackle position, they're going younger. We'll see how that works out. But I can't imagine it's going to be as bad as it was last year, even if it doesn't go back to the soaring heights of prime Devon A. Chan a couple years ago. I do think it's going to be better. I have faith in my kids.

20:50Devon, a chance in his third year. I know. He's done. We lost him. Defensively, this was not a good defense last year. It wasn't terrible, right? They were 19th overall. True. But last year, so they were 19th overall. This was 19th in DVI. So again, below average. Sure. They did that with only four games from Jalen Phillips, who I like a lot. Zero games from Bradley Chubb. Chop Robinson was excellent. 11th in pass rush win. 13th in crusher rate. Zach Ziller is still really good. They have all those guys now. Now, I don't love the secondary. However, they did just sign Russell Douglas. They brought in some competent veteran into the building.

21:37And I actually think Mika Fitzpatrick makes a lot of sense on the back end. Yeah. So I'm not saying to you this is going to be a great defense, pass defense, still has issues. But I actually believe this is one of the better pass rush groups in the entire NFL. And if the offense is what it was when Tua came back, they might not be in as many. You know, teams won't be able to run the ball on them as to the extent they did last year. Yeah, they didn't have any explosives last year, which is like the weirdest thing with the Dolphins. You'd be like, okay, Devaney Chan's either going to be hurt or he's going to be averaging like six yards a carry.

22:10and he didn't really do either of those things. And that I find incredibly unlikely to recur again. So I think you'll see more big plays out of the offense. I think Tyreek had that really long touchdown in week one and then did not have a single long touchdown again the entire season, which is, again, unlikely. I would not expect that to happen again.

22:34I'm with you on a lot of this. I agree about the pass rush. I agree about the run game being better. I am not sure I'm with you on the offensive line. And the only part that I struggle with on the defense is, if you could promise me 17 games to Jalen Phillips and 17 games to Bradley Chubb and 17 games to Chop Robinson, the guy we saw last year who was a top five pass rusher, not among rookies, top five pass rusher, period, when he was in the lineup over the second half of the season, that would be terrifying. I just don't know that I'm going to get 17 games out of those guys. My premise is not that you'll get 17.

23:08is that you'll get more than zero and four, right? Yes, fair. So, you know, and we'll see what Kenneth Grant brings on the interior as well. I do not love the loss of Calais Campbell, who's like remains - He was really good. I know. By the way, Arizona Cardinals player. Another Arizona Cardinals, yeah, I know, I know. But I just think, like, I think the way, you know, so to go back to the premise, this is just about winning the division. It's not about going beyond that. Fair. Look, for any team to beat the Bills, I knock on wood. Josh Allen's hurt in this area. Like there's no world, I think, if any AFC team surpasses the Bills if Josh Allen is healthy.

23:43My case here is if Josh Allen gets hurt or misses a number of games, could any of these teams win enough games to surpass him? I'd like New England. I think they're going to take a leap. I think people might be a little bit ahead of themselves with where they are. I understand that their schedule's very easy. All their schedules are easy. I just think we kind of might be forgetting how good this offense is when Tua is healthy. That's all. I'm not saying they're going to win in January. I'm just saying they're going to win a lot of regular season games. I will actually say that I do think there's a possibility the Bills don't win the division, even if Josh Allen is healthy, because we almost saw that happen two years ago, right?

24:28I mean, they were, what, 6-6, 7-6 in midseason when they went on that late-year winning streak after they promoted Joe Brady to OC. Like that was a year where the Dolphins were comfortably ahead and the Bills almost missed the division title even with a healthy and productive Josh Allen. So I, the Bills defense is very turnover centric. That's, even by their standards, it was very turnover centric last year. That's necessarily tough to keep up. I do think this division is not a lock for the Bills. I think the Bills obviously should be favored, but I, I'll tell you what. I think people are just kind of tired of this version of the dolphins.

25:08I know. So they're discounting how good they are. That's why, like, I feel like there's so much fatigue around Miami because we've seen how the movie plays out at the end of the year. So, which I get it. Right. And so I think that, yeah, that is absolutely, there's a cloud on them that just isn't going to go away until they beat the allegations when it's cold. But hey. There's a real like poor man's Ravens thing happening here. Yeah. Yeah. I think that happens in the NFL where we get tired of teams and we say, I don't want to play with you anymore. When they stop being like surprising and fun.

25:49I think that that is what's happening with Miami. I think my feeling is just though when you look under the hood, you realize there are still the elements here of a team that can win a lot of games. There's a real like 23 Dolphins. Aw, thank you. 25 dolphins call hr element to this team that is probably unwarranted totally completely yeah all right nfc east so the favorite of course is yeah you got yeah i know what's coming here so philadelphia is the uh favorite and i think we both agree that is deserved and obvious if they were nina you know how the nfc east goes nobody wins your back-to-backs nobody went back and i interest you in a discussion about the Dallas Cowboys.

26:35Well, I never talk about the Dallas Cowboys, so let's do it. No, no, I love this pick. Let's do it. Make the case. I love it because it's fun. Okay, so this is again under the premise that we are getting Micah Parsons on the field, if not week one, hopefully for the vast majority of the games, because over the last four years, the Cowboys by EPA per play, the best defensive football with Micah Parsons on the field, I believe 31st or 32nd depending on your flavor of EPA without him on the field so that is a starter you're a better man than I by the way because I ran the multi-filter and I did passer rating for some reason but EPA play is much I know I don't know why I did that um anyways yes EPA play is like whatever that you have it's going to have Cowboys really good with Micah really bad without Micah and that is going to be a major difference he missed part of the year last year if he asked Jerry Jones, he missed six games.

27:30I think he actually missed four games when it actually played out in reality. And the Cowboys didn't have Dak Prescott for half the year last year. So you're just starting there. Your two most important players, history tells us they will be around more often in 2025. That goes a very long way. Their run defense, horrific. I don't think it's going to be good this year, but I just think of all the things that could be bad with your football team, run defense, even if it's just pretty bad, is not going to be the thing that derails you in the regular season. I have a stat for you, and I think this is a Mina Keim show featuring Lenny exclusive that I have not put out there yet about the Dallas Cowboys, and it is a doozy of a stat, Mina.

28:11Hit me. Red zone differential. The Cowboys last year had the second worst red zone defense in terms of keeping teams from scoring touchdowns, scoring points since 2000. The only team worse, The only team, sorry, the fourth worst defense since 2000. So in 25, four years. Yes, the fourth worst red zone defense. Their offense was not historically bad, but it was like one of the worst in football. So the defense between what they scored every time they made it to the red zone on offense and every time they made it to the red zone on defense, the second biggest since 2000, behind the 2009 Rams who went one in 15 that season.

28:56historically bad unit. Hard to find comparable. Even if we take the 30 worst differentials in the red zone from year to year and see what they did the next year, their performance basically went back to average and they improved by more than three wins per 17 games. This metric, not what we talk about very often, but just historically bad in the red zone, with some of which is performance. They had a terrible run defense. Their rushing offense was pretty bad so you could see a kind of a a on the field case for it but even by those standards horrific luck in the red zone last year uh yeah i think that's really interesting red zone's always interesting too because you and i've talked about this before trying to figure out whether it's predictive or not on both sides of the ball can be a little bit difficult but historically bad is not likely to happen again um and then you know especially because i think offensively it's very hard for me to imagine a world in which this offense doesn't at least jump seven ten when you get when you get sidelines sideline scotty in charge i feel like that's a a major step in the right direction i just think offensively yes they're gonna be good unless again you lose dac again or you lose cd or whatever but i really like the george pickens edition by the way i feel like that's something that is actually going to work for one year for the cowboys yeah having to defend two number one receivers is very difficult ask teams who play cincinnati ask teams who play philadelphia it's you have to make very difficult very it's funny though like going through doing all these division previews so many teams in the nfl don't even have one good cornerback like i would argue that we are have we have honestly we have a cornerback crisis but like cornerback death to me is one of the biggest issues in the nfl this year like just looking across the league so you're playing dallas you're having to deal with both i mean look i do not think they're going to beat the philadelphia eagles but the philadelphia eagles got a cornerback two problem right now like a lot of teams buffalo bills have a cornerback two problem like there's this is the thing so the fact that they have those two players who have just shredded single high coverage over the last few years they're gonna win a lot of games because of their offense alone however what are you gonna say to the commanders fans who are now gonna be screaming we just paid terry mclaurin our quarterback was that was best that's right um the offense you know we had a Tunsell and Debo and Jaden Daniels doesn't seem like a regression candidate.

31:37What is your response to them? Okay, so number one, the idea that like Laramie Tunsell is going to be like the thing that locks down and fixes your offensive line. Did we not just see the Texans offensive line last year with Laramie Tunsell on it? And the Texans were like, oh no, we have to start all the way over on offense. Our line was so bad, which it was. And Laramie Tunsell was not the biggest problem, but did lead the NFL in penalties. They were the best fourth down offense in the history of the NFL last season, 20 for 23. On fourth down, more points scored on drives with a fourth down conversion than any other team in NFL history.

32:12One of the oldest teams in football, one of the healthiest teams in football. And very little young talent besides Daniels and Saner still with a really good last year. Their picks, but the Ron Rivera did not yield a lot of great draft picks. I think they are going to be, if last year they were the 2023 Texans, I think they're going to be the 2024 Texans, a team that, because they are not necessarily stocked with young talent, a lot of the players they relied upon the year before are not necessarily likely to improve. They're more likely to decline. Some of the offseason additions, I don't think they're going to fit all that well.

32:47And I think they're still going to be good. I think they're still going to be a playoff team. But I think we're going to be looking at them sort of stagnating a bit and saying, okay, maybe they're not on that incredibly upward trajectory that it seemed like the year before three playoff teams from the nfc east did oh did i say the eagles were going to make the post they're okay they're going to make the plus season not going to make that mistake again um yeah i mean the case the the contrast between the niner the premier the commanders being historically great on fourth down and then the cowboys being historically bad in a red zone yeah um it's an interesting argument I have a lot of questions about this Commander's defense, so I think I'm pretty skeptical Of that I think that the offense is going to be I'm still really high on Jane Daniels I don't think the offense is going to regress It's a good case It's one thing in the NFL That we know, Bill It's that historical achievements Are unlikely to repeat And by the way That's something you could poke in the hole of The Eagles, right?