Playoff We go! Ranking All 14 contenders

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0:34welcome back to the minikheim show featuring lenny dominique the playoff field is set later this week of course i will be previewing the wildcard games with ben solak but today i have put together an exercise that i described to you as easy but is actually very difficult we are going to rank the playoff field um i do i'm going to do it the same way i do my power rankings and my drafts mock drafts which is actually no sorry we're not gonna do it the same way we're gonna go back and forth that was a lot sorry yeah I'm not gonna give you two choices and make you pick one that's how I forgot that's how I do that we're just gonna go back and forth uh I I said it was easy because it's like whatever just put together a list yeah can I ask the question yeah it has to be a clarified question I just want to say I think this is the hardest playoff field to rank since I started doing this at ESPN I think it's pretty clear so it's just ranking them we don't have to like go by who you think is yeah it's don't matter path to the playoffs doesn't matter because obviously like the rams you know benefit from that um the buy teams you would put on the top no we are purely just saying who are the best teams irrespective of the matchups for wild card weekend i will be discussing the matchups obviously in great detail So I've given you the gift or the curse of going first.

1:54Most people want to escape. I've been getting a lot of homer allegations because I put out a video yesterday explaining why I thought Mike McDonald was the coach of the year. You just watched Dominique called a game, Niners Seahawks, and you watched, I think, firsthand, why Mike McDonald is my coach of the year. Yeah, I think he definitely could be coach of the year. and we did like the playbook telecast, so we're deep in X's and O's and all that stuff. And you see the ways that he creates advantages on defense. And they're super talented on defense, but you also see that they are coaching around what it seems.

2:31I mean, just based on their behavior and their coaching, that it feels like they're coaching around a clear limitation at the most important position on the field. So, yeah, he definitely could be coached here, number one overall seed. But if I get the first pick, I don't think you have to worry about it. If you want to scoop up Seattle and Mike McDonald, there are going to be a lot of good teams left because I think I'm going to shock you. Jacksonville. Oh, no! I wanted to pick the Jags early. I have the Jags in my top four. Yeah. And I went back and forth between them at three and four. Okay, so you're not mad.

3:04You put it at three and four. I love this. I am so Jags-pilled right now. Me too, man. Dude, as I started doing my prep for Bills-Jags, which I think there's match-up things that the Bills can, that do help the Bills. But I don't think people understand how good the Jags are. Since week nine, the Jacksonville Jaguars are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. I use the week 10 as my cutoff point because a lot of the early season stuff, I think the season-long stats are valuable in some ways. But I think a lot of times the late season stuff is more helpful to clear it out.

3:46I was actually surprised that their offense wasn't better than I thought or than it came out with those statistics. But I still think they I mean, it's one of those things where it's if they were one of these teams that we expected to be good. It's like the confirmation bias thing. We expected the Jags to be good. we'd be a lot higher on them after winning eight in a row or, and having a number one overall quarterback who's playing as well as any quarterback in football right now, combined with the fact that they do have like Heinz Allen is a game closing type of pass rusher. You have that advantage and they have a cadre of receivers that I think are super dangerous and depending on the week, they might run the ball.

4:27Well, that's a valuable asset. The only thing that I don't love that I'm a little bit apprehensive about also going into this game against Buffalo. I'm like, can they take advantage of the Bills' bad run defense? But they're good at literally everything else. I mean, the run defense, which is also important in playing Buffalo, is exceptional. This dude, Anthony Campanile, man, like, they started out hot. They had a little bit of a dip. And then they have been amazing since that. And the early heat was a lot of, like, turnover bias, which I'm sure will come up when we get to the Bears. And this is funny because they're playing the Bills, but this is a lot of like the Bills model, but kind of in reverse where we're like the Bills defensively, at least we're like the Bills defense.

5:10You're not that good. Not that good. Then all of a sudden at the end of the year, they start getting a bunch of turnovers and we're like, oh, they're still it again, but they've done it a little bit differently where we feel like they do have a solid, like a solid defense. I mean, it has weaknesses. Everyone has weaknesses, but I kind of looked at this exercise and, and had like major categories to try to figure out what I like is like O-line quarterback coaching and like the D-line finisher idea and defense overall is kind of the way I looked at this and when I did my own little like combined with the stats but my own little assessment I kind of came on I was like you know what Jags got every I mean the coaching experience is a question obviously.

5:50The conclusion I came to after doing it is the Jags are the most balanced team in the AFC. I think pretty undeniably because you know most of the teams in the field to flawed, which is what makes this hard to, but I mentioned the offense and the defense, both top 10. They also have a kicker can kick field goals from the moon, which is, you know, no one ever talks about it. Don't matter. It doesn't matter. Think about week 18. Yeah. He had a 67 yarder last week, right? I mean, think about it in a tight game driving one minute left come on it's a big deal in the playoffs um yeah i i there is no reason why the jacks can't win the super bowl i'm i'm so glad you came out i i i was too too cowardly to put them no i mean west teams i wanted to i love you and i you and i are work together really well for a number of different reasons but one of the reasons is you really want to be right I also want to be right, but I care less about being right.

6:52I want to be fun. And the Jags at number one is a lot more fun to me than anybody else. Did you see the video of the Jags fan benching, squatting Trevor Lawrence? Yeah, we did it on Get Up this morning. And the major takeaway was she didn't get enough depth. You got to get your parallel. That's how you knew it wasn't AI, though. That's true. That's what happens when you sit next to Jeff Saturday in the morning. And the major takeaway is that's bad form. I was like, that's a smaller woman. I mean, I can squat Jacoby Myers. I don't think I can squat Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence is a big dude, man.

7:29He's like 6 '5", 6 '6". It's a reminder, man. Quarterbacks are huge. I remember it was a few weeks ago, I guess a few months ago, when ESPN went to the Stock Exchange and all executives were standing up there and Troy Aikman. It's like, we forget. because quarterbacks we kind of think of as like prima donnas like the big ass dudes i i'm not a big believer in like the like who's under pressure and it mattering but i do think the jags like the vibes immaculate the feeling of playing with house of money a little bit this year of being ahead of schedule tremendous and yeah i you know we like them for football reasons but um yeah i i love that pick okay i'm gonna take the rams here i'm gonna beat the homer allegations uh seattle you know i i think you can obviously having the buy is huge they might get the rams because oh no forget to buy i thought no don't try to sneak that in no i'm just saying like if we were doing a different exercise purely that was like who's gonna go farther obviously they benefit from that and they beat the rams but it took a lot and i also think the version of the rams we've seen over the last few weeks is not the same one that we're going to see in the playoffs.

8:41You know, they've had some pretty key injuries on both sides of the ball. Sneakily, getting Quentin Lake back is massive. You know, like they, I think, when did he get hurt? I wrote it down somewhere, but it's a pretty big injury for them. Now I'm pulling it up to see when before and after. like okay yeah week 11 was that well anyways um the defensive splits before and after are pretty notable i think the defense is still really good i don't obviously they're not as good as seattle's defense but i think this is still a top 10 defense and then the offense i think the ceiling is the highest of any team in the nfl right now yeah i mean i think that's absolutely right and And, like, you have the – again, like, I did, like, these kind of breakdowns.

9:36And you have all the things that you want. Of course, you can say McVay gets a little conservative in the postseason. But, like, he's a Super Bowl winning coach who you could argue is the best coach in the NFL. You have a quarterback who, of course, there's criticisms of Matt Stafford. But he's incredible. And they talk about finishers across the defensive line. They have those. And they can run the ball effectively. Like, it's – yeah, I think that's the obvious choice. I'm surprised that you had to struggle with it. It sounded like you were struggling between them and the Seahawks, which, honestly.

10:04I think the Seahawks defense is so good. I'm so high on them. I will, like, if they play again, I'm going to have to sit with that, honestly. I don't know who. I just think it would be close for me. We might both walk away pretty happy because I don't know that I want to go. I'm between the Seahawks and the Texans at this point of who's left. And there's a pretty easy argument for why you would go for the Texans. Of course, their offense is hit or miss, but they have high-end explosive play ability and a quarterback that can play at the highest level. Are you taking the Texans or do you want to talk it out?

10:50Oh, I mean, what? You've got Jags, Rams, the three pick. You have a choice. Yeah. I mean, right now it's Texas. I'm talking it out, I guess. It feels like you're not confident in your decision. I know because there's so many. It's in a workshop. It's Patriots. It's Texans. It's Seahawks. Yeah, I'm looking, and that's it. Oh, yeah, Broncos, I guess. Broncos. Yeah, this is where it gets hard for me. We have the same top teams. Yeah. Yeah, I think I might actually, I almost forgot about the Broncos because the Broncos have that defense, but the way that they looked against the Jags like that late in the season, I think that gets them a little bit of a demerit.

11:31If we're not including, yeah, I got to go with the Seahawks. Okay. So I think Texans versus Seahawks is a great conversation though because they're kind of the AFC and NFC versions of each other, right? so let's let's so I'm if you take the Seahawks I'm going to take the Texans so let's just let's talk about them together here both defenses amazing yeah amazing in very different ways though but I don't think either of them have a significant like when I think about these teams holistically in the playoffs and going far I think they're both perfectly capable of carrying their teams but then the question is which offense do you trust more that's a great question that's a great first take topic well not really but which offense do you trust more seattle or houston so i mean both really good coaches yeah the coaches are both good they're both defensive minded coaches which i yelled about this morning on tv about how everyone's again looking for offensive coaches when like you can get a pretty good defensive coach to be all right we're talking about this on live.

12:41So I do, um, you know, for my, my awards votes, I'll do the whole pod on that in a couple of weeks. I've already revealed some of them, I guess, to the public, but, um, my assistant coach of the year, eight of my top 10 candidates were defense this year. It's really not a good time to hire an offensive coach. And it's a great time to hire a defensive coach. But I think that's the product of like the brain drain of the last five years. When you look at the playoffs outside of like Kubiak, Petula, like all of the head coaches are play callers. You know, like it's just, there's just no one. Anyway, sorry to go on a tangent.

13:18Nah, I love that tangent. So, I mean, I think that it, there's nothing definitive. I would say that there's nothing like super tangible that would separate these offenses to me. I, like Nico Collins and JSN, they match up pretty well. I have a higher respect for what C.J. Stroud's capability is. I think that's what leads me to lean more towards the Texans because that's going to matter, especially watching that recent Seahawks game. Sam Darnold made an awesome play at the end of third and 10 where he kind of scrambled a little bit and converted that play. That was it for the game that felt like it was special and of course CJ Strout hasn't been great he had that really great quarter against the um Chargers and then it's kind of I mean last week's game was less important but kind of was nondescript after that so but I know that his ceiling is much higher so I think that might be the deciding factor if I'm telling between these two teams I think I'm more confident in the Seahawks run game?

14:30Stop it, Mina. Well, I think we're comparing them to the Texans, Dominique. I'm not comparing them to me. Okay, okay, okay. We're doing head-to-head here. I'm not saying it's a great run game just because they ran on San Francisco. Yeah, and I mean, I know before I did that telecast, you were pointing to the – it was funny. You helped me out a bunch because you were like – I was, of course, like Seahawks can't run the ball. It's the story of the entire season. They actually ran it better before the last couple of games had more explosives. So I look like such a genius because of you. because I told before the show, like, hey, Tim Housbach, like, yeah, they run game terrible.

15:01And I'm like, hey, they were better the last couple of weeks. And then they just toted that thing all over the 49ers. Well, the Niners. So statistically, they have a better run game than Houston. Houston is, ooh, buddy. Second only to the Raiders in the worst success rate. The Seahawks are, like, 23rd, and I think it probably ticks up. So it's not good, but I do think it's better. CJ, I would say, is less likely to turn it over than Sam, which is a big deal. But CJ's streaky, man. I think his ceiling is very high, but there's games. There's halves where I'm like, where'd you go? Right. So I guess that's why I'm confused that you don't end up on my side, because I think that the Seahawks run game.

15:48Yeah, I think the Seahawks run game is better than the Texas run game. but the Seahawks run game is not something that you can hang your hat on. They're not going to win offensively because they can run the ball. And you're right. They're both streaky quarterbacks. Like Sam Darnold was on an awesome streak at the beginning of the season and then has been on a really bad streak. I guess you could argue that that's not streaky. Streaky is like, I'm good here, bad there. Yeah. I think – yeah, I'm sorry. Go ahead. I think I trust Mike McDonald a bit more as a game manager. I think Kukubiak I trust also more than Nick Kaley.

16:20I will say, you know, one thing I will say about the Seahawks offense, I mean, I haven't spent enough time talking about this. They've been better in second halves during this bad streak. And you can see, I think Kubiak's been pretty good at making adjustments as games have gone by. I would take Seattle over Houston, to be clear. You're taking Seattle, so I'm taking Houston next. So we've got, to revisit, we've got Jags, Rams, Seahawks, Texans. So it's back to you because we talked it out. I took the Texans. I want to trade. The Seahawks and the Texans. I love them as like the twin flames of the defense.

16:54Wouldn't it be great? Seahawks, Texas, Super Bowl. Real defense is back. I know that I had to pick, but I want to trade it. But I guess it doesn't matter. I talked myself out of it, but I'm stuck with them now. It's fine. I just took them because I knew you wanted them, so you couldn't be a homer. All right, so now I'm looking at the conversation now is New England, Denver. Yeah. So I think I'm going to go with Denver. right here. I have Denver here. Yeah. I think that's a, it's a less challenging decision for me. I think it's obvious about the, the coach, the offensive side of the ball offensive line.

17:33I think they probably have the best O-line remaining, which matters a lot to me. And then of course, all the things that you need on defense. So like the O-line matters because you can rely on them to protect against all the pressures that they're going to see and potentially run the ball in important situations and take pressure off of the quarterback. And then of course, the defense has everything that you want defensively. I know that they're not perfect in man coverage, especially when you get away from Patrick Sertan, but I love that defense and their whole front is closers as far as pass rush is concerned.

18:08They have experience. They were in the playoffs last year. I'm leaning in that direction and Cortland Sutton's probably an underrated number one for impact. It's just there aren't as many. I know we talked about like the Jags being the most complete. I think when we talk about the Broncos too, that gets closer to another team that's pretty complete. But of course the question mark is around the accuracy and consistency of the quarterback. Yeah. I mean, the way I would describe the Broncos and you obviously hit on a lot of this is they have a defense that sets a floor. and an offense with a high ceiling the offense also has a low floor not super low it's not like yeah yeah the worst and you know but i'm gonna take that team given what they're capable of and then they've got a coach who you know i trust as much as almost anyone here in playoff game matchups thinking about that a really good decision maker really good game manager that stuff also matters a lot more to me at this time of year i'm like looking at the coaches and like who do I trust to manage the game from like, you know, timeouts, challenges, two point decisions, et cetera.

19:22I was just, I mean, I know there was only one game that got a lot of attention at the end of week 18, but we've already referenced it once. And I feel like when you talk about, you mentioned timeouts and I assume the Steelers are going to be towards the end of this list. That was a real show there. Those timeouts, man. Insane. It would have been really hard. Had they lost that game, it would have been really hard to argue. To defend Mike Tomlin in that spot when I know it wasn't his decisions. That was an offensive thing, but it's still like, man, we can't have this. I know. Yeah, so anyways, I do feel good about the Broncos' defense.

20:01I know a couple cracks have shown up, but there's enough there. They're good against both the run and the pass, good in the trenches. They've got game-changing players on that side of the ball. I wish I felt better about the run game personally headed into the post I feel like that about a lot of teams so to be honest like how many it's funny because we for all the talk of the last few years about how running the football is back how many of the and maybe this is more of a reflection of like defenses getting better at stopping the run this could be a good offseason conversation for us but how many run games do you feel really good about the Rams of course right the uh the Steelers are a pretty good running team.

20:42The Bears, of course. Yeah, the Bears I would put at the top. I know that statistically they aren't at the top, but yeah, the Buffalo Bills run game, like that offensive line is incredible, and Deion Dawkins is awesome. Yeah, I think we named them Rams, Bills, and Bears, right? Yeah. Packers can run the ball decently well. Yeah, but that's, it's everyone else is, I'm not saying everyone else stinks, but there's just inconsistency, and then you have some that actually stinks. So anyways, Broncos totally makes sense. Okay, so I'm just, I actually have it tiered there. And then I've got a next, I've got a group of three in the next tier that I was deciding between.

21:31I'm going to put the Bills here. I'm going to put them over New England, who you mentioned, and another team that you might guess. The Bills, to me, are the most matchup-dependent team in the playoffs. If you can stop the run and run the ball, they're in trouble. The great news is, as we just discussed, there aren't that many teams who can do both of those things. Unfortunately, they got a team that can do one of them for sure off the bat. But anyway, you're right. Yeah, they might lose in the first matchup. This might look stupid. but and the we'll talk about the pats that defense just gives me so much concern i actually the bills defense is better than the patriots defense and then on the other side the pats offense is better but the bills have josh allen and a dominant run game so i'm gonna go buffalo here even though they're flawed it's a flawed team yeah i i got triggered by I took the bait.

22:42I got triggered by, it was like a betting site post that was like, Josh Allen has no excuses this year with no Lamar. And I'm like, Josh Allen fit in the run? Is Josh Allen, Josh Allen two-gapping? Like, what are we doing here? Like, the run defense is horrible. I'm surprised you took the bait because I've been fighting against this for so many weeks now. I feel like this has been an ongoing thing that I've been saying. Like, I'm not dumb. You guys are setting this up so that we can trash Josh Allen after this. Like, no. And, like, is this his best chance? No, it's not his best chance. No, because his defense is not good.

23:17Yeah. And, like, the argument that I ended up on was, like, Josh Allen's best chance is when there will be nobody else to blame. Like, I'm not worried about Josh Allen. And right now he seems a little injured. Like, saying it's his best chance, I guess my point is, Josh Allen don't need to sneak in the back door. Yeah. And, like, arguing that this is his best chance suggests that he needs to sneak in the back door. I'd rather the AFC be strong and Josh Allen's team be strong than the AFC be weak and his teams also. You know who's under pressure? Sam Darnold is under pressure. Matthew Stafford is under pressure because they got good teams around them.

23:51I'm not saying the Bills are bad. Obviously, I ranked them where I did. But the idea that this is some absolute favorite is insane. Insane. He's not healthy either. It's a real thing. that of course like he's gonna play but all right so i had the bills at five you get six so so can you guess the other team because the patriots is one i gave it away yeah the patriots one let me see all right so this is my next year right um who's left i guess the we got the bears eagles uh i don't think it would be anybody else in the afc because all that's left in the afc is Pittsburgh and the Chargers. The NFC is not going to be the Panthers.

24:39It's not going to be the 49ers. So I would say it's either the team with the offense or with the run game. Hey, it's the Eagles. Yeah, it is. All right, so who are you taking? I'm taking the Eagles. Over the Panthers? What?

24:57It's fine. I'm boxed you out. Give me Drake May. Give me the quarterback. Okay, the Eagles, I mean, this defense can turn any team game into a rock fight. The Eagles can win any game. I truly believe this. Yeah. 13 to 10. Absolutely, the way that defense is playing. Yeah. I mean, I think that's why you go with the Eagles is that this is – who did you say this about? I guess this is the same as the Broncos situation, except better. in some ways. It's like they have a defense that's going to keep any game close, and they have an offense that has a high ceiling. And I think we're going to come out of – I already predicted this, that we're going to come out of week one really high on the Eagles.

25:43The run game is back. Yeah, we're going to do that whole song and dance. And I've got to take into consideration that we're down to the third string linebacker. Can you name the San Francisco linebacker? Can you name the middle linebacker? No, no, Mina. Only you can. You're the only person. I could not. I looked it up. I had never heard of that man. I did the full Kiki Palmer. I don't know who this is wallow or something. I was if, okay. If the Eagles office can't take advantage of that, they should, they don't belong. Get him out. I don't get him out of my face altogether. Cause the Niners are so up against it.

26:14But yeah, the, the back to the good stuff, the Eagles defense is awesome. I mean, and they're proven they're deep. They can beat you a bunch of different ways. They have a brilliant defensive coordinator. They have two shutdown players in the secondary. The offense is, I'm not holding out hope at this point for it, but that's enough for me to feel good about them at six. Because I said that they have a high ceiling. However, like with the exception of a couple of bad teams late in the season, like we saw them have a high ceiling last year, but that was an entirely different team, it feels like.

26:52But I'm trying to think back through the season, like when they played a good team and had an outstanding – I guess the Vikings game, like they had a good offensive production in a Vikings game. So they do have players. I mean, that's also – in the playoffs, oftentimes it comes down to like you have a guy that can have a special day. And they got two receivers that can have a special day and a quarterback who's shown that he can have a special day And, of course, a running back that can have a special day. So that's the high ceiling. It's probably also worth mentioning that this quarterback always plays his best football in January, February, which is insane.

27:30At this point, it's like a thing. It's a real thing. I mean, I just think about their games against Buffalo, Green Bay, just like disgusting games. Why can't they win that way? You know? Okay, so I'll take the Pats at seven to round this out before a break. Pat's offense, first NBA per play this year. You know what's funny? Because obviously this has been a big discussion with the MVP, right? It's like the slate of opponents. But really, the slate of opponents, they played a lot of really bad quarterbacks and backups and like that. To me, the defense, when you consider... my perception of the Patriots defense is more affected by the schedule than my perception of the offense, which I wholeheartedly believe in.

28:22Does that make sense? Yeah, I get it. No, I mean, because they, the defenses that they face were not as bad as the offenses that they face. Like while the teams were really bad, it's, it's more impressive what they were able to do offensively against some of these teams. The, the Patriots, I'm sure you're aware of all of their stats, but they have some pretty impressive offensive stats that should give you some encouragement and if you get down to the coach and quarterback conversation of course drake may's inexperienced but the coach is incredible and drake may's been incredible so yeah that's good coach office coordinator who's obviously been there um i think you know they've got guys coming back important players uh will campbell came back milton williams is coming back i believe for this week i'll double check that but like you know i there's worse things in the world than to bet on a quarterback who's playing the best football.

29:16Like I, I just, you know, I, I, the team is flawed. The defense is really flawed, but I, but the defense also has some playmakers and they're getting reinforcements. So I feel good about this pick. All right, that's it. So one through seven Jags, it's gotta be the only podcast in America that's ranking the Jags first. I love that Rams Seahawks, Texans, Broncos, Eagles, no, no, probably bills, right? Eagles. Yeah. Patriots. All right, let's take a quick break and rank the back half. As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Grainger has your back.