State of the Dart: Previewing Every Week 4 Game

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34:56Shopify.com slash network. It's Charles Barkley here with Wayfair. Let me tell you, game day is serious business at my house. If I'm grilling, chilling, and watching hoops, my outdoor setup better be ready to play. That's what Wayfair wins. From patio seating and umbrellas to grills and grill accessories, Wayfair's got it all, and it shows up fast. I'm talking fast and easy delivery. So level up your grill game and your outdoor chill game and head to Wayfair.com to get your outdoor space ready for the season. Wayfair, every style, every home. Let's do Eagles Bucks here. Do you think the Eagles offense is boring?

35:39What was – I didn't watch the Drew Brees actual take on that. He just said – I mean – He respects them. First of all, Drew Brees, he was on my show a couple weeks ago. He's really good. And he's going to be good in that role on first take. I think he's very thoughtful. And I don't think he was giving a take just to give a take. I think that there's something. I think Drew Brees comes from it. It's funny because Drew Brees had a very low average at the target for the last few years of his career. But I also think that I understand, especially when you talk about the short yardage push stuff, there is a lack of drama with that play that I kind of understand.

36:24Is that what it was? I mean, the Eagles' offense is not heavily schemed up at all. It's basically just like, hey, we have better players than you. Let's win. Yeah. And that's just what you do when you have that roster. That's what you do. But also in the second half last week, they really opened up the downfield passing game against the Rams. That's what I want to see. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, that is the premise of the we have better players than you offense is you have to use the better players, the superior players. And there's a sense of like, we'll do whatever it takes to win. Like Nick Saban has that whole thing about the illusion.

36:58Yeah, but they weren't for a half. No, but what I'm saying is that they were like, okay, we have to do that. We have to open up the downfield passing attack. Like I think Hertz was like, had more 10 yard downfield throws in the second half than he had in the five quarters before that. I don't think they get credit for, like, they should have, like. They get credit for winning the 3-0. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I'm just saying I've seen, like, I feel like they deserve to be demerited to Kevin Petula more for waiting that long to throw the football, whatever. All right, so I'm going to focus on the Bucs side of this, though.

37:34This is a matchup we've seen a lot in the playoffs. For a while, it was the kind of pain of Jalen Hurts' existence. when they were blitzing him. That is going to be a huge factor in this as well because Jalen Hurts has been better when he's non-blitzed. He's fifth in QBR versus 25th when he's been blitzed this year. The Bucs still love to bring pressure. They blitz at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. They get a 50 % pressure rate. They actually have good rushers, like Diaby's been really good for them in particular, but that's something to expect. But I want to focus on the other side of the ball because Mike Evans is banked up, which makes it really hard to find a Dory Jackson in this one or whoever CB2 is I do think Tampa can run the ball on them because the Eagles defense has been good but they've really given up a lot of it's it's not like so much explosive runs but they just they're getting kind of and some of that is structural because of the way they play they play with lighter boxes some of it is competition but Kyron Williams had a 55 success rate running on them they're 30th right now in And thank God for the Baltimore Ravens.

38:34So Tampa, you know, we love the run-stressing attack with Bucky Irving and Rashad White. I think they lean heavily on that in this one. There are also two teams that have, you mentioned the Mike Evans injury, but these teams have genuine depth. And part of it is because they really do best player available every single year. And I think, and I always say this, and I've said it in this pod before, but like the old Billy Bean line, if you have to do something, you're screwed. Like these teams, like nobody was like, oh, wide receiver depth is an issue in Tampa. way it doesn't matter we're going to take the leading receiver in ohio state history and he's going to perform immediately yeah and so i think what's what's cool i think these are two of the best rosters in football and two of the best gms in football i i that that to me is the most intriguing part just seeing the the trenches go at it i mean like jordan davis i don't know um like i don't know how how sticky but block kicks for touchdowns are but like that just shows you.

39:28I feel like if you're that size, it's more likely to happen than it is. Did you see he was the fastest 330-pound player in the history of anything? He was unbelievable in the whole game. He made multiple game-changing plays. Yes, and he slimmed down a little bit, and it's like a contract year. And so when you're getting contributions like that from guys you weren't expecting elite contributions for, that's where the roster comes in. That's where you're just like, what do you do? How do you stop these guys over 17 games? What is your key for Philadelphia?

40:00For me, it's to take what the second half showed. Hey, A.J. Brown, do it again. It's so funny because you mentioned we're just going to have better players. That's actually the key is use your better players and use it. Just take the second half of last game and throw the ball 14 yards down the field, throw it to A.J. Brown, and go for it. Especially because the Bucs do have a really good run defense. they're gonna blitz like you kind of know what you're getting from them it does feel like you're gonna have to air it you're gonna have to come with a plan for the pressures and then you're gonna have to air it out um i'm taking the eagles in this one i just think the bucks the mike evans injury and i think the eagles offense kind of found something in the second half that they can build on but it should be a good game i'm gonna go with the bucks yeah yeah diaby is one of the he's good most efficient pass rushers in football this year it looks like it he looks really good to me.

40:57Vita Bay is still amazing. And they have some fun young players in the secondary, too. I really, you know, but perish. But like, AJ Brown is AJ Brown. I mean, how many humans on Earth do you really believe can... Did the Eagles know that? That's what I'm saying. Okay. I got Titans-Texans. Okay. Let me put this before we get... Oh, no, we picked the game. Alright. I'm going to give you a second to talk about Cam Ward because you're the sort of world's foremost cam ward defender right now they're changing the play caller this week and i would like to raise my hand to call plays if you let so bohard agrees calling the plays this week if you let someone else like install the schemes and let me pick the plays i would be really good at cam ward how many times have you personally yelled at calvin ridley watching these games oh i mean it's um you know about fights let me let me position okay so the eagle the texans are oh and three this is it i mean i said the same thing last week i was like this is it but this is like it's jover heads whirl we might get a nick cayley mid-season firing by the way that should be on the table but am i crazy for taking the tech this is my survivor pick because i'm like they can't go in four against the titans right the defense is too good uh i want to highlight one thing these are the two by far worst first down conversion teams yeah so they're The Titans are converting a 61%.

42:26They get a first down on 61 % of their possessions. The Texans are 63%. That should not be happening with CJ Stroud. At least the Texans are only getting first downs on 12 % of their first downs, which is second lowest in the NFL. So if you measure explosive plays, typically it's first downs on first down. It's like how often can you get 14 yards on first down? That is usually the sign of a really good offense. Warren Sharp has been on this for a long time. The Texans are the exact opposite of that. The Titans are even better. The Titans are 15 % of first downs on first down. This is going to be an ugly watch.

43:05The Texans' defense, which, by the way, you saw they get rid of C.J. Gardner-Johnson. I did. Locker room issues. You remember that viral tweet where somebody was talking about, I think, giving up kids for like adoption or something. And it was like, have you ever considered that maybe the kids' vibes were bad? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's how I feel every time I read a story about CJ Gardner-Johnson. I'm like, there's never been more apparent from the outside that somebody just has really terrible vibes. Threw a punch in like a playoff game a couple of years ago. Multiple punches over the years.

43:38Practice, like his own teammates. He's from Central Florida though. So we're all kind of, we've all got a bad vibe to us. we're all unpleasant to be around the texans defense is just there it's it's depressing because they're so good still and every game they make it like competitive even though the offense is just a complete shout out to bobby slow like man he's they thought it couldn't get worse it got worse he must be watching these games i don't know if he's like in a college team somewhere calling plays or whatnot but he's he got he has to feel somewhat vindicated watching this texans offense.

44:13Have you seen the, uh, it can't get worse than this TikTok meme from soccer? Okay. I need to explain this. This is one of the funniest things in my life. And it's huge in Europe and it bleeds over to American TikTok, sports TikTok. There's this manager named Mick McCarthy and he's like been around the block and he's like, he's like a John Fox type. He's like kind of a classic retread. And there's a question in a press conference where this guy goes, Mick, three points in 15 games it can't go on like this and mick mccarthy just goes it can it can it can and like i i think i it is so deeply embedded in my cranium now whenever i think things can't get worse or things can't go on like this it can and i just when i'm looking at this texans team i just don't know yeah the offensive line okay the the original sin for the for the texans to me is thinking that different people on the offensive line meant better people on the offensive line.

45:10So, in my defense, I was very critical of the offensive line. Second they signed Lincoln Tomlinson from the Seahawks, and I got word that he was going to start. That was a recession indicator. Listen, that said, it's week four. It's way too early to make huge, like, this is what I know already, pronunciations or we've learned this or taking L's on takes but I'm going to say two things right now and I want to be held accountable by my viewers I will never have faith in a team with a crappy offensive line again because I was like well Texas will win the division they'll be fine I thought the offensive line was gonna be a problem I was skeptical about the offense like really bouncing back but I was like yeah we'll figure out no two I am never ever again going to endorse a team with a bad offensive line drafting or running back never yeah with the Raiders.

46:02The Gentile hype got to me and I was like, everything in my fiber of my being, everything I learned about football says it's a bad idea but he looks cool, broken tackles. No. I'm taking the Texans in this one. How about you? I'm taking the Tennessee Titans. Texans 0-4. Titans. Should I not do the survivor? Bowhart agree. Alright. Can I just say something about Cam Ward? I'm just going to keep making excuses for Cam Ward until I literally die. until one of us passes away in 80 years. If Cam Ward has no fans, not on the third. Every time he made a mistake in college, it was as a bit. It was a bit.

46:40Watch, he threw two interceptions in college that were like sailed in Miami last year. And they're both against Virginia Tech. Every other mistake he made was being like, what if I did the coolest thing you've ever seen in your life? I like Cam Ward. I think the Texans defense is going to put the clamps on. I mean, it could get ugly. No. But I'm not going to blame him. I want to be clear. I'm not going to blame him. I will blame everybody else. I mean, Calvin Ridley, how many – first, Cam Ward's dad doing an incredibly dramatic – you saw this, right? No, I didn't see that. Oh, my God. Everybody needs to look this up.

47:16So against Denver, they were obviously dropping the ball all the time. And on, like, the eighth drop, they showed Cam Ward's dad, Calvin Ward, and he dramatically walked into the aisle. He was sitting in the nosebleeds. He walked into the aisle and just grabbed the aisle, like the rail, just dramatically like, this team is going to kill me. And that's how I also feel watching this whole thing. You should get one of those shirts that are like, if you're a fan of someone, it has like a million pictures of them. You should get one of CamelWare. They must make them. Yes. I think he's going to be an amazing quarterback.

47:53He is – every taker I've seen has defended him this year. And also some people who weren't in on him are now in on him. I will say this, and I said this after the Broncos game. We're in danger of what if Mahomes was drafted by the Bears. That's like – that is the timeline we might be viewing here. That if he goes to the Bears in 2017, what happens? We're in danger of seeing that. Colts-Rams is a great game. Is this the game of the week? It's up there. No, we got Ravens-Chiefs. Okay. Colts-Rams is incredible, though. It's a really good game. Oh, anyway, sorry. I just remembered something. Did you remember that Cam Ward is the best quarterback in football?

48:41No, I remembered that I have to cancel something that I plan for tomorrow. Anyways, it just popped into my head. I had an intrusive thought while I was talking about the Rams. Okay, you're the Colts. I'm on the Rams. I'm going to go first on this. I think it's really important for the Rams that they get elite and control. I know that sounds like a dumb thing to say. Yeah, good stuff. But I think the Colts offense has been able to kill people running the football with play action. They're using play action at probably the second highest rate in the NFL to the Rams. These two teams are the most play action-centric.

49:20And Daniel Jones, I mean, this last week on play action, he's done 46 % of dropbacks, went 10 for 11 for 137 yards. Jonathan Taylor has been amazing. Essentially, you want to get them out of that. You want to get them playing from behind, both from a game perspective and also within downs, so that play action is off the table. I think that there's things that the Rams can take advantage of. uh xavian howard is a name i'm sure sean mcveigh has circled to go after with his receivers but i also think they can run the ball on indianapolis run defense has not been great early on 29th and 8b per play 25th in success rate and the rams rushing attack remains not terribly explosive but very efficient i just remember something i have to cancel tomorrow was daniel jones's football funeral because everybody needs to apologize to daniel jones We're doing this week four?

50:14Yeah. Okay. I think that maybe the Giants organization is the worst thing in the world. Yeah. Saquon and then Daniel Jones. Who's next to leave New York and have – Julian Love's amazing in Seattle. Russell Wilson. I'm kidding. I'm kidding. Wouldn't that be amazing if Russell Wilson just goes to the Saints next year and just lights it up? It's got to be someone, yeah, like Russell, who's not been good for them. Xavier McKinney. Xavier McKinney. Geez, you're right. Like, wow, a track record of free is just leaving the Giants and falling out. Well, that's like the whole thing, like the Ole Miss thing where they had DK Metcalf and AJ Brown, all these guys, and they won, like, eight games.

50:52Like, that's going to be the 2024, 2023. Was it DK or – no, it was neither who did the peeing celebration. That was Elijah Moore. What a program. What a program. Colts. Dan Jones. And his daughter's dating an LSU linebacker in hard launch at the week of the game. Our algorithms are very similar. Yep. Okay, so here's my thing with Daniel Jones. Okay. He's doing things that good quarterback – like sometimes you have a mirage and it's like whatever. He's pushing the ball down the field. Yeah. And the offensive line is better, like significant. They look great. PFF has them in the top five offensive line.

51:34They look awesome. Quentin Nelson is fourth best run blocking guard in football. They gave up four pressures, I think, to the Titans last week, according to PFF. So all of this stuff is coming together. And again, I'm starting to think. So this was a couple years ago when everybody was like, well, Joe Shane was good for letting Saquon walk because he wouldn't look good behind the Giants offensive line. Okay, that's worse. That's worse news for Joe Shane. He built a team that was so bad that Saquon can't play behind it. And now I'm looking at this Daniel Jones thing going, hmm, maybe that was the situation, that Daniel Jones couldn't play behind the offensive line.

52:08Now, he got an extension, Daniel Jones did a couple years ago, because he got a 40 % pressure rate, and he was still playing well enough to push the ball down the field. But now you're seeing him in a quarterback-friendly environment. You're also seeing Chris Ballard, like, he's made some mistakes, and he's never won the division and all that stuff, but he's hit on some draft picks. And they're a very athletic team. And you're kind of starting to see what this team is supposed to look like, and it's because Daniel Jones is playing competent football, which he couldn't do in New York. including shane stiken what his office it looks amazing i think he's been one of the tape guys the tape guys have him as one of the best play callers it looks like it i did misdirection he's constant i mean he's so good at attacking defense's weaknesses um i trust the tape guys like doctors where like i don't know i don't really know any of medicine right and so but like when these guys like kurt warner's like shane stiken's got an amazing playbook i can't evaluate playbooks like I can evaluate a lot of things about football.

53:05So I'm just like, I trust you as if you have a PhD. It's like when you go to a mechanic and they're like, yeah, this is going to be$700. And you're like, we have to go really? Who am I? And then, and then they say, I'll make a show sometimes of like Googling in front of them. Like what is the thing that's being fixed? I'm going to go Rams here. Should have beaten Philadelphia. No, the Eagles fans don't get mad at me, but like, obviously they bought field goal. Like they should have won that game. I think that the Rams offense is there's a lot of things that they can do against this Colts defense I think but I think game script I kind of think if either team pulls out to a lead it's over I mean I know that I know that sounds dumb but when you have teams that run the football and use a lot of play action it matters more I have the Rams I just I flipped a lot I had the Rams making the Super Bowl all summer and then Matthew Stafford started to get wheeled into an airstream cryogenic chamber and I decided that the Packers are going to make the Super Bowl.

54:10And now that I see it, I'm just thinking maybe it was the Rams all along. I'm not going to change my pick, but I saw a stat. I was doing NFL Live over the summer and I was talking about the Rams defense And I saw a stat that was just unbelievable to me. And I've been thinking about it ever since, which is that last year, Verse and Fisk had the most pressures by a rookie duo in history. And they were – the record they broke was the rookie duo from the year before at the Rams. So you're looking – and, like, so I talked to Les Snead at the owners' meetings, and he said that it took them five top 100 picks to try to replace Aaron Donald.

54:52And they kind of have done it now. Yeah. And I think that's – It's – In aggregate. The pass rush is great. The secondary is not. I thought Quentin Lake was really good in the Eagles game. But outside of that, so it kind of, every game I'm looking at the opposing offensive line, can your protection hold long enough to take advantage of the mismatches through the air? The Colts, maybe yes, to be honest, because that offensive line we talked about is really good. So this is the close one for me. But yeah, I'm going to go Rams. Okay, you have Jags Niners. As of this recording, we still don't know if it's going to be Mack Jones or Brock Purdy.

55:22We do know that Nick Bosa is out for the season. woof woof Niners defense has been really good this year Jags coming off of a win over the Texans I have a matchup for you give it give it to me the Jaguars are the quickest team to pressure in the entire league and we know who that is that's Josh Heinz Allen and that's that's Trayvon Walker we know what that looks like Mac Jones has been really good at getting ball out very quickly and and taking the open guy and so i'm looking at that i'm circling that can the jaguars get any pressure on on mac jones or are you gonna let mac jones dice you up and i don't i i'm i'm gonna pick the niners in this one just because yeah because i think they win that matchup and also we talked about ricky pierce or we can talk about a little bit more about him he's great he is really good he his toughness yes at the catch point is so impressive there was a back shoulder ball that jones threw him and i thought oh i don't know about this and i feel like he is able to consistently make some of the more impressive catches i see like every week and not just that just as like an indicator we were talking earlier about how you take best player available and that if you live by that things good things happen the Niners weren't desperate back then for a receiver I think they were trying to figure out how the Iuke thing was going to work out which it didn't um but I think they took Ricky Pearsall because they believed in Ricky Pearsall like if Kyle Shanahan goes out of his way to draft a guy unless it's Trey Lance um it's usually a pretty good indicator and I just think you know Ricky Pearsall was on an awful Florida team he's saved a couple of games single-handedly the toughness is there the the team obviously adores him I just I think he's a star in the making um this is a hard one Mac Jones was on the Jags by the way so it's a Mac Jones revenge game if he plays I have such a hard time getting a feel for this Jags team personally because I feel like the stars are so up and I mean I don't who what Brian Thomas Jr.

57:33are we going to get in this game It's like really difficult to tell. The Nick Bosa injury is very close to making pick the Jaguars. But I'm going to go Niners because I think the run defense holds. I agree. But I don't. This is the Bosa injury makes me nervous. Okay. Did you watch Liam Cohen's like post-game speech? This week? No. The vibe. He's a much different person than I thought he was. First of all, he's tall as hell. He's in the Kevin O 'Connell zone of like. This is a lot of. You meet him and you're just like, what is happening right now? Yeah, football guys are kind of weirdly tall. Yeah, well, they're all former quarterbacks.

58:05Yeah, right. And they're all like 6 '4". And so that's part of it. And then he's a little more, and I've made this point before, we've got to stop going off of social media and early press conferences because the Duvall thing is not who he is at all. Like he botched that one, but he's actually a way more confident, like borderline cool guy. I think he was Victor Cruz's college roommate at UMass. He was. I think it's very hard to get to that level without being very confident. It's like the first time people saw Ben Johnson talk, and we're like, wow, he's kind of cocky. Yeah, no ****. Yeah, there's been a couple of guys where it's not actually confident.

58:45Name names after. Okay, Ravens Chiefs. I'll go first. Kansas City. This is in Kansas City. I guess this is the game of the week. Well, freaking desperation game, right? The one in three Ravens against the one in two. Sorry. Their team's going to be 1-3 after this. Okay. So for Kansas City, this is pretty simple. If they can't run the ball downhill on Baltimore, I'm out. Freaking out. It's over? It's my over? It's not even the Kansas City rushing attack versus the Ravens run defense. It's not even like the meme they're having a mid off. Because mid implies average. This is truly weakness on weakness.

59:36And we talked about this after Monday Night Football. The Ravens really struggled defending very specific type of run. Duo, between the tackles. You know what to do, Kansas City. Can they do it? I was messing with Jeff Schwartz about this. There was a two-play sequence, by the way. This was in the duo runs, but in the Giants game with Sunday Night Football where they ran like a sweep with Rashard Smith that went for five yards. And then immediately they flipped it, put him in motion again and handed off Pacheco and he got 10 yards, both plays under center. And we were watching that like, why don't they do this more often?

1:00:20Why don't they like creativity and misdirection and putting Mahomes under center in the run game? They just don't. It's the run game the way their run game is very specific. It's the reasons why it's all, you know, inside zone from the gun. It's part of their RPO game, but it is very, it's clearly not working. Here's your opportunity. Like show us, you can run the football because the Ravens cannot stop the run. I'm going to flip this for one second. The Ravens, according to next gen stats, first team, Superbowl era to score a hundred plus points have 300 plus rushing yards in the first three games, never losing record.

1:00:58A lot of that is the turnovers. But they're just – and a lot of that's defense. They're playing sloppy football. And I don't think anybody necessarily – I think there was – I was there in Baltimore. There was such a confidence there in the preseason. They really believed that they were going to have, like, a special season. And I thought the Malachi Starks pushing Kyle Hamilton into a different role. I thought they were going to win the Super Bowl. And now I'm looking at this and going, oh, man, like this is not what I thought. And on the other side, I thought the only way for the Chiefs to sort of reestablish themselves is that by far the AFC's best team was for Mahomes to develop the deep ball again.

1:01:40And last year, I think he was like 34th in deep passing or something. This year, he has the exact same numbers. Four completions, 15 attempts on 20-plus area yards. Exact same numbers as Spencer Rattler. and Xavier Worthy being out certainly hurts that. Back for this game. Yeah, and so that's the one I thought maybe – and when you talk to people in Kansas City, it's a mixture of everything. It's the offensive line not being as good in the last couple years, and then Xavier Worthy felt like he didn't just have the downfield chemistry with Mahomes, Travis Kelsey not being able to be himself as explosive.

1:02:19So I don't know how they get that back. I don't know if you just see those numbers, if it can come back. But I have to see – you mentioned the better players thing. The way for them to just blow out everybody is for Mahomes to just start pushing the ball on the field. Now, I know the two high shells and all that stuff, but he's done it even with that. Well, I think what will be interesting in this Ravens game is if the Ravens defense and Zach gore, they try to stop the bleeding by putting more bodies in the box and bringing down a safety. And then to your point, if they do that, can the Chiefs actually respond by attacking them over the top and taking advantage of one-on-ones?

1:02:58But they have to run the football to even force that issue. So that's my key for this. Should the Chiefs trade for Jameis Winston? Possibly. Yeah, that's the move. To come in and throw deep balls. That's the move. What is your key for Kansas City? I mean, my key for Kansas City... I'm sorry, for the Ravens. Oh, for the Ravens. Okay, well, I mean, first of all, it's don't stop giving up 30 points a game. That's my note. Good, good note. I don't know, like, have we been disappointed in Zach Gore the last two years? I mean, they made that switch to become the best defense in the NFL because the way they deployed Kyle Hamilton late in the season, maybe there's something, there's a switch to be made, a move to be made.

1:03:42You've got to figure it out. You've got to figure it out. Right, you've got to figure it out right now because it becomes a math problem at some point. And what I think is – I mentioned the confidence part. On the first day of camp, Kyle Hamilton told me that John Harbaugh wrote on the whiteboard just the phrase, gradually then suddenly, which we as educated people know that is an Ernest Hemingway quote about going broke, oddly enough. But that's not the way he was using it. He was using it as like, it's been a slow build. This is the year, right? And to have to be searching for answers again in week four is now what they anticipated.

1:04:19And I don't even know. I'm not a good enough defensive mind to know what that switch could be. I'll leave that to the tape, guys. But there has to be something because it's not – this is not working on defense. The other thing is, like, the run defense doesn't have to be what it was last year. It doesn't have to be the best in the NFL. Just be average. Just don't be the worst in the league. because I think you saw too on Monday like yeah, the offense just starts pressing when they fall behind I mean, you know, the Henry fumble obviously was pretty, I'm not worried about the offense I've said this, but it just, they gotta get it fixed but I take Baltimore in this one I'm just not convinced by what I saw from the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night offense, I don't, yes, they hit Thornton a couple times, I just don't have faith like I think the run the rushing attack will be better they'll look better this week but i don't think it'll be enough when i did that exercise asking listeners what they know about their team a chiefs fan said to me the eagles have stolen the chiefs voodoo like they remember the chiefs used to have these like and like how how would you miss that kick like how did this guy fumble the snap like the Eagles are getting that now this feels to me like a Chiefs voodoo game like I just feel like weird everybody's making mistakes I think it could be you're right it's in Kansas City it feels like like a dropped interception yeah into a receiver's hands something silly 45 yard touchdown were they being back as big um you know they haven't really had someone who can win on outbreakers in this offense.

1:06:00That's something they were doing with him. Even if he's not a deep threat, I think his ability to get yards after the catch could be big against this defense. But yeah, I just think the Ravens offense is better. I like things my way, my coffee, my schedule, and my treatment. So I talked to my doctor about self-injecting with the Vivgard Hytrulo Pre-Filled Syringe, which contains Efgar Tegamon Alpha and Hyaluronidase QVFC. It's injected under your skin subcutaneously. It means I can inject in my space on my time. It's my treatment, my way. Visit VivGuardMyWay.com. That's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T MyWay.com.

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1:07:56But when you stay at La Quinta by Wyndham, you can step up to spacious suites that give you room to relax, recharge, and get ready for the next day. I always feel like I need that when I'm traveling on the road covering ballgames. Plus, you can earn Wyndham Rewards points with every qualified stay. Because when you've got space to unwind, you're always playing at your best. Tonight, La Quinta. Tomorrow, you shine. Book your next work trip at LaQuinta.com. Terms and conditions apply. Okay, Bears-Raiders is just me. I just wrote, can the Vegas offensive line approach competence in this game? Bears' defensive line is not good.

1:08:37Their 30th in pass rush win. Teams have been able to run on them. This is, you know, coughing baby meets coughing baby. I mean, because the offensive line has just completely derailed the entire operation in Vegas. Geno Smith was under siege this week. The run game, Ash Jettie's just getting absolutely killed behind the line of scrimmage. Watching the offense, it reminds me, it's funny because for Geno in particular, it's not that I don't think Chip Kelly is like a fraud or anything like that, but I feel like he's running into the same problem that Ryan Grubb ran into when he came to Seattle, which is, it's really hard to do all your cool stuff when you can't run block or pass protect.

1:09:23It was also, they're getting in a lot of third and long. The second down play con was really bad. Like they're, they're running. It just, I don't think Chip Kelly's a fraud either. And I think he's evolved quite a bit. Like the knock on him, if you guys remember the Niners when he was head coach, so he didn't evolve his offense at all. and he did it in college and he did it Ohio State. So I don't think he's a fraud by any means. Having said that, it feels like he's running plays that he knows aren't going to work, that I know aren't going to work. And again, I'm not Kurt Warner. I'm going to take the Bears in this one.

1:09:59Felt like, well, will I? I really don't like this Bears defense at all. Never mind I'm switching. I'm going to take the Raiders. I know the Bears are coming off the hive. I want to be on the other side of you on this one. I'm going to go with the Bears. I think that the offense can continue building on what they did last week, but I just don't like this Bears defense at all. I think last week the Cowboys got really lucky with the Cowboys losing Lamb. I have a stat that I want to say, but I'm going to save it for the next game because they're related. Here comes the Cowboys. Yay! Packers, Cowboys.

1:10:34No one in the NFL has allowed more than two passing touchdowns thrown 20 yards in the air, okay? Except the Dallas Cowboys, who have allowed five. So double anybody else and plus one. That is horrific. And so my question is, and I picked the Bears in the last segment, but it's fine. My question is, like, are they just generationally bad at allowing explosives? And that's why Caleb Williams looked that good. But to spin it forward, if Jordan Love doesn't get explosives this week, then it's over. I think that the Packers offense is going to roll. I think it's going to be Jerry Jones afterwards just saying, well, we knew it wasn't going to be perfect.

1:11:22Isn't it kind of crazy that when all the rumors first started floating about the Micah Parsons trade, the first person I saw to post this was our colleague and friend Bill Barnwell. And I've seen other people lean on it without crediting him. But he pointed out before anyone that the Cowboys offense with Micah Parson was like a top defense in the NFL in EPA per play. And then without him, they were the worst in football every time he left the field. So he points that out. They trade Micah Parsons and they're arguably the worst, maybe bottom three defense. And it was all so predictable. Yeah, that's correct.

1:11:59Right, like nobody, everybody saw this coming. It was like a slow-moving train wreck. Here's why the Packers are going to win this game by an incalculable amount of points. They're going to have to get a NASA calculator to calculate the scores at the end of this, okay? We talked about getting first downs on first down, how that's sticky, and then just getting first downs in general is sticky. On defense, the Green Bay Packers are the best defense at limiting first downs. On every down, particularly first down. They only allow a first down on 9 % of first downs and 63 % overall. Those are both the best in the NFL on defense.

1:12:40The Dallas Cowboys are last. They have allowed a first down on 78 % of the chances here. They're tied. I just want to say that they're tied with the Cincinnati Bengals, the Colts, and the Dolphins. So they give up a first down on 25 % of their first downs, and they are a horrific defense. This game might have the best defense in the NFL and the worst defense in the NFL. I think we agree. That is correct. Packers' defense wasn't why they lost to the Browns. They were phenomenal in that game. Yeah, this is going to be ugly. No CeeDee Lamb. And I like the chunk play to Matthew Golden last week, the 34-yarder.

1:13:23It's been a quiet few weeks for him, but I think that's the kind of thing, especially if you can't get going against the Cowboys defense, then they can throw us out there. And so there's that. And I'm just – last week, and this is the NFL, and I want to – I'm doing radio. He's been on radio on the weekends with Drew Butler. He was a former NFL punter, and he said that Mike Tomlin used to just put on the whiteboard there are five plays to determine the outcome of every game, which is correct. Like, you just think about high leverage. You don't know which, you know, maybe a couple third downs or whatever, but you don't know what plays they're going to be before they happen.

1:14:01But it felt to me when the Packers played the Browns last week, Matt LeFleur took the blame for Love even passing before the Grant Delpert interception. He said it should have just been a bootleg run and just live to fight another day. But they just made a stupid play calling mistake. Love put it up for grabs. He didn't see Delpit on the play. And it felt like a fluky loss to me that they're going to avenge. And I have no concerns about it. We talked about how nasty that Browns defense was. I was going to say, I think that was just like, wow, the Browns defense is amazing. I mentioned this on Monday's pod.

1:14:37I do have concerns about the Packers offensive line and their run game that I think they need to get it figured out. Zach Tom needs to come back. This is a great opportunity for you guys to figure it out. You get to go up again. The Cowboys are the slump buster of the NFL. Like, oh, you're down? Like, pick it up. What's Zach Tom's injury situation? I don't know. He came in, then he felt bad, and they said they regretted playing him. But I agree, it's a big deal. Will Anderson was on my show a couple months ago, and I said he was the best offensive lineman in football, and he said Zach Tom and Packers Twitter.

1:15:10It's at the top of my notifications all the time. Packers fans just retweeting it. I mean, he's making a case with his absence in some of these games. Okay. So I'm obviously going to take the Packers. I assume you are too. Yeah. Two Monday night games. Both absolute bangers. I love it. Watch ESPN. Jet Dolphins is you.

1:15:37Well. This is it. I'm going to start here. 0-3 versus 0-3. This is it. We're getting Joe Brady down to Fort Lauderdale.

1:15:48The Dolphins' defensive line has not been as good as people – maybe it should have been. They've been getting whipped up front. Yeah. The Jets are – allow the most pressures in football, and it's not even close. Okay? The Jets' quarterbacks, Justin Fields, Tyra Taylor, they've been pressured on 51 % of their dropbacks. no one else is even above 43 that would be mr cam ward who is being failed by his supporting cast uh so this is you mentioned like the get right games right like this has to be a get right game for the for the miami front seven it has to be and this is in watching how teams defend the jets it shows you why wide receiver twos get paid so much like remember a couple years ago when people but like T Higgins starts to get paid and Devante Smith gets paid.

1:16:41And you're thinking like, man, that's a lot for wide receiver too. And then you watch the Jets where it's Garrett Wilson and then they're just sitting on Brees Hall and they're just like, yeah, try. Well, do you guys even have a second receiver? That to me is, is, is a roster thing needs to be, needs to be fixed there. It's, it's tough for Garrett Wilson. And so I, I actually like, I know it sounds crazy. I like the Dolphins in this one. Yeah. I think that they can get right here. Don't know if it's Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields at the moment. I think Taylor didn't play great, and the game was close.

1:17:23And, I mean, you know, as a Just fan, you're not trying to win a lot of games this season. Close losses are kind of usually when we think about a year one disaster. disaster cloud or like when coach comes in year one and you know the team is bad and they're rebuilding close losses it's kind of like i i know that's they're not going to say that's especially week four you want to win games but it's not the worst thing to happen um i'm also on miami in this i think the miami offense will be able to move the ball in new york pretty easily i think that defense is beautiful yeah uh okay bangles prakos uh so uh this is my game thank god i don't want to this bangle i don't want to talk about this bangles team i think this is a real opportunity here for bonix and this broncos run game which hasn't gotten off the ground here's your opportunity against cincinnati and then the broncos the funny thing about the chargers broncos game this week is the broncos defense was unbelievable like every justin herbert completion was made with like five guys in his face to like lad wakanko with another guy like climate like they were so good in that game and the charges won by the grace of justin herbert going superhero and then bo nicks mixing some deep passes that were open to be honest so i'd like to see him make those this week i'd like to see them run the football better but i have no i doubt that the broncos defense can light them up is there and it's going to be hard with this with the saints is there a case to be made here oh boy that the bangles are so bad this could end up being a like a david robinson situation and the bangles are going to be able to get like reuben bain yeah right yeah um i'm sure bangles fans are pretty close to rooting for that outcome we're only the like let's hold serve and we're only 11 months away from reuben bain and mike brown being in a dramatic contract standoff is what i'm trying to tell you guys um in some ways like it's better than like muddling along joe burrow rushing back from injury to try to make it for like a failed playoff run like let's just be bad yeah i don't know i thought brown i mean i thought brownie would look better than he has to be fair the vikings defense but he's got he has the vikings the broncos back to back good lord but i for me this is much more about the broncos like the offense has just been quietly so under i feel like people have kind of ignored how underwhelming the broncos offense has been the first few weeks of the season i can't take this team as seriously as a playoff team until the offense shows more than they have So here we go.

1:20:17Monday night. So one of the reasons I thought the Broncos were going to be good, really good, was I thought they had a top five offensive line and defensive line. Yeah. And top five defense. And then I thought that the question mark, like you can judge a team by its questions, right? And the question mark to me was, can Sean Payton raise the floor on Bo Nix? And I thought I would take that 10 times out of 10. And I have not seen that so far. And what's funny is like Sean Payton, and I agree with him on this. But like after, I think it was two weeks ago, he was like, listen, I'm not going to do a panic meter for Bo Nix after every game.

1:20:54I love the guy. And I do agree there's part of that where like we can't overreact all the time to what Bo Nix is doing, especially when they're winning. But I've been, I thought I was going to see, I thought, I thought it was going to look a little better, your two Bo Nix. Bronco's offensive line first and pass block win right now. 13th and run block which is kind of it's last year they were first but I'm taking Denver obviously I assume you are too I'm taking me going what time is this kickoff is this another 10 p.m. kickoff I hope so I'll be back in LA I love it I was like oh it's so late it's 7 p.m.

1:21:30I'm taking the under on a 10.30 bedtime on Monday however I will keep my TV on because I love my employer speaking of loving your employer Omaha Productions Produces this show Your show People go check out This is football And also a pregame We are the top two Football properties I think they do something On Monday night But I don't know what they're Yeah They're also producing A pregame show Called Breakfast At Bethpage Hosted by My friend Colin Jost Friend of Myself Not the podcast Yeah I was gonna say Where are you going with that I don't know I was gonna say Friend of the show But then I remember You're actually friends with him He's a friend of mine But he's never been on your show.

1:22:11Never been on my show. Is he a football fan? Yeah, he's a Giants fan. Oh. Him and his brother. It makes sense then. His brother is a comedian. It makes sense that he would be doing something for Omaha Productions. Yeah, right. Right. It's the Ryder Cup. You're really into golf. First of all, you can watch that at RyderCup.com and on Peacock. Colin also hosted Pop Culture Jeopardy, by the way. And I did a clue for it. And I tried to watch it. I didn't know a single. and you know I like regular Jeopardy yeah yeah yeah I didn't know a single these pop culture people are nuts by the way the questions were so crazy what was was it all like like this K-pop stuff no it was all through the years like stuff from the 70s but it was also like the fourth word of this Taylor Swift song from like yeah yeah yeah I'm just like okay so but the Breakfast at Beth page check it out you're gonna be at the Ryder Cup you're a big golf head I'm locked in on Friday I'm taking the 548 from from uh i don't even know what's grand central station that's how locked in i am the writer cup of course is the u.s versus europe versus europe used to be versus great britain and they had to expand it we were too good too good uh this is something we do with like basketball and you know and then hockey was actually electric when they did it with hockey would you know sort of did it the four nations thing uh are there enough players to do this in the nfl outside the u.s no they're not but you're not gonna believe this i've given a lot of thought to this i've thought about this quite a bit okay uh the way to do it so every august the nfl releases this data of the states that produce the most players yeah and the florida texas and california yeah and i think you can even regionalize it even more okay and do i think you split up like florida you split up california it wouldn't be fair right but i think you can do regions of the country south florida north florida uh east texas west texas i'm not i don't know texas enough to figure out maybe you have to separate dallas it's pretty big you have to separate dallas and houston okay uh and then you have a tournament to determine the best that would be it for me is like south florida versus southern california yeah right so you think about the nfl players here from south florida right yeah You have Patrick Sussan Jr.

1:24:33You have the Bosa brothers. Like you just start – Gino Smith, I assume, would be the quarterback of South – or Lamar Jackson, excuse me. Lamar Jackson from Palm Beach County. Gino Smith would be the backup. What a great backup he would be. But you're looking at it and you're just saying there's so much talent in America. That's how you have to do it. You would not be able to do – Yeah. You know. What if you just did the Mississippi? And we had all the West players versus all of the East players. so then you get Lamar Jackson versus Josh Allen California versus Florida yeah as long as you have California on one side Florida on the other and I guess Mississippi you're getting Texas Mississippi starts in Minnesota so Joe Burrow is Joe you're saying Joe Burrow is the backup on Team East he's hurt he's not playing tonight that's a good thought that's a good thought Mahomes is Texas Mahomes I was gonna say Mahomes is a tough one I left him out because I forgot yeah I think I like this idea.

1:25:31West versus East definitely won't devolve into weird culture war stuff. People will be totally cool and normal about it. Definitely not. Jordan Mailata is the only international player I could think of when we were who I thought. A couple guys born in London, I think. All right. Well, that'll do it for today. Go check out the Writer Game pregame show, Breakfast at Bethpage, Writer Cup pregame show, pardon me. Check out Kevin's podcast. This is football wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you, as always, to my friends at Omaha Productions who make this show. Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Tucker Tashin, Jack Foster.

1:26:09And I will be back next week with Dominique to talk about those thrilling Monday night games.

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