Steel Curtain Call: Previewing Every Week 14 Game

29:05So if you want to push the Armand Membu agenda, Mina, you've already been an honorary offensive lineman for a long time. So this would just secure your place at the XXL BBQ for another 20 years. I mean, there's been some games that have been flashier than others, but I very rarely find myself watching the Jets and thinking pass pro. Which, by the way, puts them in good position for next year, right? This is a team, I wouldn't call them a quarterback away. They also need a receiver and all that, but at least the offensive line is playing well. You've got an offensive line and a running back who, like this game, I'd circle both these teams top 10 in runs of 10-plus going up against defenses that are both bottom 10 and runs of 10-plus allowed.

29:50So get ready to learn Brees Hall and Devon A-Chain in this game. the Miami Dolphins for all their flaws man every time I get to turn on Mike McDaniel's run game he just does so many weird things with spacing and where he puts his big skill guys and creates natural seams and you only need a little bit for each hand given the explosiveness there so I kind of let those two cancel each other out and I'd said for this one like we talked about the man coverage tendencies for the Detroit Lions earlier in the show like two has gotten an overwhelming amount of zone so far this season the one team that played him like 15 percentage points higher man coverage was the jets earlier this year and to it did really well in those so my key for this one was can to a beat man coverage again he's struggled pretty mightily lately like it's been a you know tough road to go as that run game and hn have contained it or yeah so he's got to step up big beat man coverage in this game because i don't see the jets deviating much like even after you traded away Sauce Gardner, they're still running man coverage at basically the same rate.

30:57Last week, a real good case study in winning despite the quarterback Miami, and they ran the ball so well. Mike McDaniel making a little case for himself. Winning these games, obviously they're not going to be a playoff team, but he's definitely – the turnaround of the run game is genuinely impressive. I mean, the team is really, a lot of it is scheme and the creativity, and you alluded to some of the things that they do with the eye candy, but also, like, they're blocking well. Like, they actually have, they fixed the thing that everybody was begging them to fix for years, which is the run game and the physicality on the offensive line, but then the quarterback fell apart kind of simultaneously.

31:41So it's in a weird spot. I'm going to take Miami here. I believe in that run game a lot. defense quietly playing hard yeah i will go with miami as well okay so i am i've got saints bucks which is also a rematch of course uh divisional rematch earlier in the season it wasn't that long ago they played let me pull the week actually yeah it was week eight and the so i went back and looked at my notes from that game and it was a it was a beat down the saints um lost three to 23 it was a game where i think that was the game where rattler was benched so you saw both rattler and shuck in that game and both struggled um there's a few different directions you could go here i'm going to focus on baker even though the bucks defense has i feel like when i think about this team in the playoffs i do worry about some of the issues that they have in coverage and some of the vulnerabilities.

32:43But offensively, this just has not been the same offense that it was the first part of the season, even as some guys have returned to the lineup. And there's a few things you could point to in terms of the reasons why, but I'm looking at Mayfield here. I mean, it was just interesting to go back and watch some of the throws he made in that game. And since week eight, Baker Mayfield has been 30th in DVOA under pressure and 30th in average death a target so he's not pushing the ball downfield the way he obviously again and so you got Luke Gadecki back and the run blocking looks better but Mayfield himself has been a lot more erratic over the last few weeks and even in this game against the Saints he did struggle a bit with they sent a lot of pressure at him so I think like for me this is kind of a benchmark game for this Bucs offense as we kind of head down the stretch and the Panthers and them are kind of locked in at the moment in terms of who's going to win the NFC South.

33:42Can we see a little bit more offensive consistency from the pass game? Because, I don't know, I just feel like nobody – this seems to be under-commented on maybe. Maybe it's because of the injuries, but Mayfield was like an MVP candidate the first few weeks of the season. Everyone was talking about how great he was, and he's struggled as of late. I'm going back to look now where it is relative because this reminds me a lot of – All right, so the Rams game was three weeks later, so there were two losses in between that, so I won't totally excuse it, but went into that one with the shoulder. It got beat up more.

34:19It's eerily reminiscent of Baker's waning seasons in the Browns where he told everyone, I've got a shoulder injury, and then the Browns still gave him the heave-ho after that, and it's like, all right, he's not 100 % healthy. Pretty much every meaningful skill player on this team has not been 100 % healthy. You had Graham Barton starting at tackle to begin the season because Tristan Wirfs and Luke Gedeke were both hurt at different points. Like, it's just a group that seems so ground down at this point. Now, Bucky Irvin's come back. Like, I heard you and Ben talking last week about, like, the explosiveness that he brought to this offense that wasn't there with Rashad Wright, and that does seem to be it.

34:54Like, there's no burst, and it just seems like they're kind of holding on a lot more than dictating terms, and I think part of that's just everyone's physically compromised. Yeah, they receive – well, it's like – so the offensive line finally gets healthy but then the receivers are hurt it does different players have taken turns being injured you got Godwin back right but um yeah I think the the run game is the other thing I would like when we think about this team versus last year and sort of the biggest difference that's they used to be they were just so unbelievably efficient running the football last season and that just has not been the case and that to me has a lot to do with the injuries perhaps more than you know, Liam Cohen leaving per se, but I'm going to take the Bucs here.

35:42Even though I have liked some of what I've seen from Tyler Shuck, and I do worry a little bit about this Bucs defense, but I feel like, you know, the offense is like, okay, you know, everybody's finally kind of coming back here. A few, you know, like no more excuses for Baker. I know he's hurt, but let's get the passing game a little bit closer to what it was at the beginning of the season. This feels like a good spot for that. All right. Colts, Jags, big game. Massive game. You have the Colts here. Yes. So why don't you go first? Yeah, this one I borrowed a term that I used a lot when Kansas City actually beat the Colts, and it was like they've got to be so stubborn with the run this week.

36:33Like last week coming out throwing as much as they did, even on the first drive, I was like, this is such a weird tone to set for me at a time where your quarterback's playing with a fractured fibula, clearly not himself, clearly not the same burst. Like the number one priority for this group has got to be keeping him out of third and obvious situations because it's kind of the same problem in different ways that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are having. Like when all of a sudden your quarterback, who's been so adept at times at using his legs to either get you out of trouble in the pocket or, you know, less a plus in the run game for Daniel Jones this year.

37:08But it's just like you've got to spam this on early downs. You've got to give Jonathan Taylor every chance to go out here and pop one in a way that's been a little bit more difficult for them in this stretch of games. Like they're two and four against teams above 500. They've clearly hit the wall in their schedule where they've started playing better teams after the hot start. But I just think when times like that happen, you've got to go back to your identity. Yeah. How much do you think the injury, though, is restricting what they can do? Because, you know, you're taking design runs, boots, some of the RPOs.

37:41Like, the playbook has to change a bit with Daniel Jones being limited physically. Like, you could not run. You saw that last week. And so then you're going to get teams stacking the box. You know, you saw that a bit last week. Like, do you feel that you still, even if, I mean, because the Jags run defense is okay. Like, do you feel, even if the Jags sell out to stop the run a bit, do you feel like the Colts could have success running the ball? Like, when you watch the Colts run game and it doesn't look like it did at the beginning of the season, per se, do you think that team's selling out? Maybe the offensive line is not as dominant, or do you think they just need to commit to it more?

38:22I think some of it is commitment. Like I was surprised and especially in this most recent stretch, like I referenced the chiefs game because that one was sort of the most maddening where you were watching the team with the far less explosive run game, stay far more committed to it than the Colts who game script had everything in their favor in time to go and run it in critical moments where they didn't and put it on Daniel there. I'm with you. Like I do think the, especially this last week, like it seemed like such a feeling out process of what Daniel could actually do. like you saw him even tripping out coming up from under center like there's just no push off that thing and it's affected the way that he moves around and so I'm hoping now all right there's a little bit more understanding of these are exactly what it's the physical limitations are that we're going to work through and just try and make that happen and I think that clarity could probably help the O-line as much as everything like you know this like if you got to change up where the quarterback is or how he is it's different blocking angles up front if you've got to go to more gun runs because he's not as comfortable pushing off from under center or more from pistol.

39:22Like, all that affects things in a way that are a process I trust that group to figure out, but it's one that's a lot easier once you actually know and have kind of figured it out in real speed like they did last week. On the flip side, for Jacksonville, I wrote, like, can you keep it up in terms of getting pressure the way you have the last few weeks? Such an odd team. So, like, so funny. They're 28th in sack rate, and I feel like they always are even though underlying pass rush statistics always like them I feel like this has been the case with the Jags really since those great Blake Bortles defenses of 2017 with the Jalen Ramsey years but in recent years I feel like on paper it's always like they've got Josh Heinz Allen who by the way has been ripping, he's been on a tear went crazy on the Titans and Walker didn't play, but you got Walker.

40:21And then you look at the advanced stats and they're always like top in the upper half of the league and pass rush win and decent pressure rate. And then you look at the sack rate, it's always low. And I think if I had to pin it down one thing, it's usually just that outside of Josh Allen, they haven't found like a reliable. Armstead was also hurt this last week. But in any case, they're trying stuff. Anthony Campanile, the defensive coordinator, you can see him. He throws a lot at quarterbacks since they started really hot with the turnovers and they fell off. But over the last few weeks, I think he's found a lot of really good ways to get pressure, different types of blitzes, simulated pressures, different guys coming and going.

41:01He's definitely trying stuff. So now you go up against a Colts team that has a quarterback who is hurt, who is struggling under pressure in a way he wasn't early in the season. and if you can get them into third and long, it's really having trouble converting. So for me, to me, like it's, you know, we always talk about the Jags and consistency from the offensive standpoint, but like let's see some consistency from the defensive standpoint. Let's see a pass rush put together multiple good games because they're capable of it, right? Josh Heinz Allen is capable of it on his own. And so to me, when I think about like what would it take for the Jags to win this division, which is very winnable, That's a big part of it, in addition to, of course, the quarterback showing some consistency.

41:48Who are you picking in this one? I had a real tough time with this one.

41:56I think I'm going to go Colts here. It's hard because I don't think the Jags passing a – I think they'll be able to handle it. Jags still can't run the ball well. It's not a group of world beaters. Lawrence is coming off of a good game. Obviously, he's been very up and down this season. I actually thought the Colts' defense played well, even without Gardner. I mean, losing Gardner and Buckner, we talk about, like, I mean, that's big for this defense. But I actually thought against Houston, all things considered, they played pretty well. Stroud beat them with some pretty impressive throws. But, like, I thought they were decent against them.

42:37And I think this offense can figure it out. I do. I think when we ask about the Colts, is this offense what we saw in the first few weeks of the season? Or is it Daniel Jones struggling? I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. The skilled players are too good for me. Yes. You know what I mean? Oh, Alec Pearson, the year that he's had, has been awesome. I also think Texans' games are so misleading. Yes. I think it's like Going from playing the Houston Texans To playing any other team Is like taking off a weighted vest Right? Yeah, they choked you out Oh wait They are unbelievably talented There are so many plays Where I was like I talked about this with Dominique There was a play where they got Warren in the flat And Al Shayer flew in from outer space to tackle it I'm thinking like 31 defenses that's 15 yards I think and I don't think Daniel Jones even played that bad honestly last week I think it's just so yeah I'm gonna take the Colts here I'll take the Colts too and for my uh to stamp my anime certs on a massive stage it reminds me coming away from playing the Texans is like when Rock Lee took off the ankle bracelets I don't even mess with Naruto like that but that scene is just incredible and it's what I think of every time just smashing into the ground with all that weight that's the Texans dropping off those I don't know what any word you just said means but it seems right alright coming back we got the big games more big games let's get to them treat your taste buds to an explosion of flavor with fruity rainbow five hour energy shots it's a fruity candy flavor explosion a zero sugar treat that's sweet tooth approved You can take care of those candy cravings and get the caffeine boost you're looking for without the sugar.

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47:09We can't spend a lot. It's a big game. It's a really important game. This is it for Cincinnati. obviously every game Cincinnati has to win and they can. So I gave this one to you. I mean, I think there's kind of like just one simple thing for both sides here, but I want to hear your thoughts. All right. I'm very curious to hear yours. Mine, a lot of it, like health is an interesting cloud hanging over this game. T Higgins is still in concussion protocol, even though he's been limited and out at practice. It sounds like they're confident in him going. and I think if you've got him back on the field with how good Burrow looked last week immediately coming back like him and Jamar Chase are great the Jamar Chase Christian Benford matchup is going to be awesome it's what happens on the other side with the combination of Trey White and Maxwell Hairston that we've seen against Cincinnati and if T Higgins is out here and he's that guy then I think things become really interesting especially if you combine that with Joey Bosa who's week to week, McDermott said, with the hamstring.

48:09And like on a defense that has already been plenty banged up, doesn't get a ton of pressure, but has at least had Bosa like make big splash plays like he did last week as he's been miraculously healthy in that old pass rusher role that the Buffalo Bills have been chasing for the last number of years with Von Miller and now with Bosa. Like I look at those and say like, all right, if you don't have that and I'm the Bills defense going up against Joe Burrow in this offense, that concerns me a bit, especially if you've got the two-headed monster back at receiver. Question for you. Which of these teams has a better run defense, do you think?

48:51I mean, at this point, you could probably make it. Well, the interesting thing is, so before last week, I would have certainly said, you know, maybe you give a slight edge to the Bengals in this. But Buffalo came out now. It's going to be very different, right? We know the Bengals aren't going to come out with a – Well, the Bengals have a quarterback who's going to throw the ball more than 6 yards. So it makes it harder to stop the run. Well, they've got that. And, like, they're not going to come out here with the jumbo stuff. Like, I thought, especially looking back at last week, Shaq Thompson came out and was just lighting dudes up.

49:24Like, when they had three linebackers on the field, he was just running downhill into guys' chests. I'm really interested from the Bills' perspective and seeing if they play as much base as they've been playing and if what we saw last week from the run defense was for real because Thompson was unbelievable. And he hasn't been – he got hurt. He was great at the beginning of the season, then he got hurt, and they were horrible against the run. He came back. It took him a second to get healthy, and now he looks healthy again. Rice, 31 years old. That's massive. I'm really interested, especially because more likely than not, the Bills are going to be in the playoffs and the Bengals are not.

50:00Just that's – but if I can see the Bills put together a couple good, like back-to-back good performances against the run, I'm going to have so much more confidence in this team. And last week was great, but this is a much, the Bengals, the funny thing about the Bengals, right, is like all it took was like Joe Brobe missing most of the season, and suddenly they actually have like one of the best run games in football right now. Like they are running the ball really well. So this is a good test for Buffalo. and then on the flip side the Bengals have an abysmal run defense their defense is not as bad as it was to be in the season they've really fixed some things but the Bills should be able to run the ball on them right and that's kind of every Bills game I feel like comes down to are you paying a team that you can run the ball on they should be able to run the ball on Cincinnati yes and the one thing we learned from last week for Joe Brady and all the fire that he's been under is man if they find that opening and you give it to them we will just line up with two tight ends to the right and we'll run some version of duo or inside zone until you pass out so I I got to imagine that's kind of on the menu now like they had some Josh runs mixed in there too but passing attack for the Bills is just so wholly inconsistent I don't even know why you would try that if the Bengals once again give you that opening on the ground yeah the Josh runs are always this time of year they start hitting that button more and more especially you know when they get into the red zone it's that's a I'm I don't do like betting advice but betting on Josh Allen rushing touchdown at this time from this point on um the Cincinnati the the Bengals defense does play a decent amount of base defense meaning uh for defensive backs on the field against heavier groupings.

51:52So I would also look for the Bills to play action, especially after what they did last week on the ground. I think there'll be some opportunities through the air. But I like Buffalo here. I know I think both sides will be able to – I don't like their favorite by 5.5, which, well, I guess they're at home. I think this is going to be close. I think both offenses are going to be able to move the ball on the other. but in Buffalo, encouraged by what I saw from the defense last week, the run defense. I'm going to take the Bills here. How about you? I'm also going to take the Bills. I don't know. Just still very impressed with how quickly Joe Burrow was able to come back and make that look like the vintage stuff.

52:37It's pretty remarkable what that guy's capable of. Steelers, yeah, he looked really great. Steelers, Ravens. And if they have Higgins, I don't know. If Higgins plays, I don't like that Bills defense against them. I don't like either of these defenses, though. No. All right. Steelers-Ravens. This is big. This is massive, massive playoff import. Okay, so I'm on the Baltimore side of this. You're on the Pittsburgh side of this. Both coming off of pretty embarrassing losses.

53:17I just feel like if you're Baltimore and you just saw what Buffalo did to Pittsburgh and your quarterback Shane Wright and I don't know what's going on with him throwing the football but it looks off you got to take a long hard look in the mirror and ask can we run the ball the way we Ravens like the way we have in the past you go into this game you don't you're not like a duo team like buffalo but every player in the team needs to go into this knowing that it's time to block because i don't know how you could watch what happened last week and not think and could and also the expectation that the sealers are going to change some shit up so because you right so they're gonna if they sell out to stop the run you gotta be able to hit the gimmies over them here but you really like I I'm watching the Buffalo game and I'm thinking we got it like run the ball until they prove to us that they can stop it no 100 % I on the other side for Pittsburgh that's what I wrote down was like hey Cam Hayward who was drawing with Josh Allen the whole last game like him and TJ Watt were in the dark darkest place I've seen two veteran players after that game because it's the most personal way to get beat like it's got to be Cam Hayward and the D tackle group for Pittsburgh which you know still without Derek Harmon their first round pick which obviously sucks but those guys versus you know we saw Voorhees we saw Emery Jones in for the Ravens last week Falele on the right side like those guys can be had it's a group that probably hasn't performed to the level they hope they would there.

54:59And so it's got to be selling out like make Lamar beat you with his legs in his arm, because right now, three straight weeks with a lower body injury on the injury report. I'm with you like the amount of gimmies that I've seen Lamar miss at this point, because he just doesn't seem to trust his base. Like the when Lamar Jackson like hit his peak, like I always go back to a couple of years ago, that Rams game that the Ravens played, that really felt like we're like Like Lamar took that next step going toe-to-toe with Matthew Stafford and was doing things moving inside the pocket, using that to manipulate defenses to get down the field.

55:34Like all that's off the table right now. There were reps where he was under pressure where it looked like Aaron Rodgers this year, where it's like a guy so unsure of his ability to like push, get back, get out. The burst in the open field is gone. Like he had a couple of scrambles for it, but you have to dare him. Like I can't imagine if you're Todd Munkin, you're even going to bother calling much zone read at this point. Like it could be a time release thing to where it's super obvious, but if you're TJ Watt and these ends, I'm crashing down and I'm not worrying about that at all. Let someone scrape at the second level and pick him up because I just don't think he can pull away from anyone right now.

56:06So I'd like to see that like too, because there was, he had one keeper last week where he actually looked kind of fast. And I was thinking like, okay, physically, mechanically, we're all trying to puzzle what's going on. But if he is a little bit more comfortable, you know, further he gets from the hammy, maybe there'll be opportunities for him. Because you're right. I think they're going to just completely sell out, right? So to that end, too, like, let's get freaking weird, man, in the run game. Like, you know, I want to see, like, a ton of misdirection. The Ravens do all that stuff. They do a ton of misdirection in the run game, right?

56:46They get you moving laterally, and then often Henry's the one going north-south. Give me both Henry and Keaton Mitchell in the backfield. Zay Flowers. By the way, also we're talking about the Steelers DBs getting blocked, the corners getting blocked into oblivion. Yeah, they don't have anyone who's like Shaver's size, but the Ravens receivers can block. I've seen them all block, even Flowers blocks. So you've got to come into this, and you've got to empty the clip when it comes to running the football on this team. I think that's a really good point, too, about the versatility you have to present because part of the thing that was interesting watching how Buffalo hurt Pittsburgh the most, like, yeah, you run duo, you run inside plays, but part of the reason that's so effective is because James Cook's gear shift and plant from inside.

57:35Like, he gets from inside to the perimeter better than so many guys around the league. It's so fluid. And Derrick Henry's many things. That ain't who he is. and Keaton Mitchell's not as complete a back. So you're right about the combination of the two kind of has to build that in the aggregate. I like Keaton Mitchell with the ball in space a lot. So find me. He should be a big part of this because, yeah, he's not complete, but he has a second gear here that no one else does, and it's obvious, right? So, yeah, just get weird in the run game. For Pittsburgh, you know, like we've seen now every book is kind of out on this offense if you crowd the line of scrimmage disrupt dk metcalf pardon me they don't really have answers through the air um ravens defense is much improved i don't think that they're you know like the best defense statistically like they're like it's crazy the turnaround since week eight i don't know if that's real per se but i think that they are definitely better than they were certainly beginning of the season you saw by the way um are Darius Washington is practicing again I completely forgot the safety wow I thought he was out for the season so or maybe he was activated in any case I'm taking the Ravens here just I think that the offense will figure some stuff out and I like the defense against Pittsburgh how about you uh same boat here uh i just i can't trust pittsburgh on offense at this point like aaron rogers looked peak old man after like basically breaking his nose you know sometimes like the old guys will have that cracked red nose just seeing him on the sideline like that like can't do anything against pressure at this point it's it's it's tough the way he's going out right now and i don't think that gets better this weekend okay broncos raiders is me um so So Bo Nix, to me, I talked about the run game for Denver being a weakness.

59:39So that's something I would like to see. But, you know, there's a redemption opportunity here for Bo Nix, who, as you may have forgotten, was pretty bad. This was the 7-10, the 10-7 victory over Vegas was like not even that long. What is it like? It was an island game. And that was after that game. everyone was like wow is Bo Nix even like a guy who can win a playoff game and then he shows some improvement and he rips off some big wins so we're back here right and going back and looking at my I mean they he was he really struggled under pressure in that game struggled with the blitz anytime he held on the ball for more than two and a half seconds outside a quick game it was bad he went nine for 20 for 113 yards through two interceptions so um you know I I think you know I've talked about him a lot and the consistency and how down to down, it's kind of hard to know what you're getting here.

1:00:33But to me, this is like a good opportunity for him to show some continued growth. And I'd like to see this Broncos team run the football better than they have with RJ Harvey. Lord knows they're going to get plenty of chances because on the other side, a stoppable force meets immovable object. Like, I don't know what the Raiders is supposed to do. Like clearly the only like path forward. And we saw the commanders go at this. It's like, You just keep spamming throws at Riley Moss until something good happens, either a penalty or a big play because you can't. And it's like I heard you talking with Dominique before.

1:01:02It's not like he's a bad player, but he's also just not Pat Sertan II, so that's where the football is going to go, and unfortunately at times that's not fun for him. But the Raiders don't have anyone who can do that. We'll watch Brock Bowers make a few more sick catches, but that'll be about the extent of it against this defense. Taking the Broncos, of course. As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Grainger has your back. From professional-grade products you can count on to fast, dependable delivery, they're there to help you keep things running smoothly.

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1:02:20His name is Yum Yum. When he goes in my tum-tum. Game theaters July 10th. Rated PG. Parental guidance suggested. Pays Checkout is offered by your banks and credit unions. So when you shop online at participating merchants, your cards appear in one place, ready to use and kept up to date. And the best part, your actual card number isn't shared when you check out. Because boundaries are healthy. Like no work emails after six. One small step for boundaries. One big leap for checkout. Pays. It checks out. Activation required. See Pays.com to learn more. Terms and conditions apply. Okay. Bears Packers.

1:02:58Here we go. This is it. The 8-3-1 Bears. Packers, pardon me, take on the 9-3. That 1 is always going to kill me until the end of the season. You go first here. Bears. There's so much to talk about with this game. So interesting. Yeah. If the Bears are going to win this game, And, like, it's the most cliche answer in football. Defense, you've got to give me one. Like, you just – you've got to – like, this defense has lived off turnovers. The Bears obviously lead the NFL in takeaways. The Packers have only turned it over seven times this season. But the Bears defense has nothing else that they can afford you, really, or count on there.

1:03:36So, it's totally boom or bust in that regard. Because on the other side, like, it's a good-on-good matchup. I cannot wait to watch what Ben Johnson and this Bears run game have become against the Packers up front on defense. Caleb Williams, one of the NFL's premier sack mitigators against, you know, what you've got in Micah Parsons on the other side in that pass rush. Like, I can't wait for all that stuff, but it's the defense for the Bears that scares the hell out of me if they can't take the football away. My point's about the Packers offense. So let's live with the Caleb Williams, the Bears offense, versus the Packers defense for a second.

1:04:12There's a couple things I think I'm interested in. So one is just Caleb's just got to play on time because playing hold on the football against Micah Parsons is not a good choice. But the Packers defense we have seen has struggled at times with quick game. They do play, you know, they give you their zone defense. They give you easy completions underneath. We have seen quarterbacks like Dak Prescott take advantage of it. In fact, versus quick game, they're actually 29th in EPA per play. Anything over three seconds that jumps to top 10. And so, you know, it's a reflection of there's still some soft spots on the back end here.

1:04:48So Caleb just can't hold on. They'll turn you over if you hold on to it. I know his sack avoidance has been tremendous. Very different with Micah Parsons bearing down on you. The run thing is interesting, though. That I'm really interested in seeing if Chicago can. That's strength on strength, right? And the Bears' run game, it's really just fun to watch right now. First of all, they lead the league in success rates. So when we think about Ben Johnson and his Coach of the Year case, and obviously the wins and the records speak for itself, but the degree of transformation and how fast he's turned this team into the Lions, essentially, running the football, is pretty wild.

1:05:38And obviously they invested a lot in the offensive line. I texted you a couple clips. Drew Dahlman was kicking butt on them on the interior in particular, but they're all they're all blocking really well. Right. But it's also like everything. It is very lionsy. There's some differences, some tweaks. But I think about it from the perspective of defense and it just looks really, really annoying. like it's you know he brings in everything it's all condensed super condensed formations um it's 11 and 12 personnel and there's a ton of motion so he's using that to displace defenders but also creating these favorable blocking angles for everybody it kind of everything kind of looks like split zone but they're like kind of weird little variations and then on top of that the play action pass looks just like that so if you're a defender and you see guys you're worried about your other your past responsibilities as well and so i just it's a quite a challenge for green it's a challenge for anyone but it's a challenge for green bay elephants that has been phenomenal against the lions run game right so here you go here's the new the new lions in a manner of speaking can you stop it i was i was gonna say like i i watching the packers against the lions like devontae wyatt and that interior and just how immovable they were on some of that stuff who was hurt and yeah that's big in this game but yeah I um I do think like you said this is also what we expected when they made the decisions they did personnel wise about tight end like if you've got tight ends and especially the Cole commit who's willing like is he a world beater at blocker it's not Kittle but you know if you like I always said Titans and running backs I just need you to be willing I don't need you to be great because if you're willing then you present enough problems a defense has to account for in the ways you described yeah the clip I sent you where it was kind of like a weird sort of wham.

1:07:31He motions it. And he really is just being a human speed bump there. He doesn't have to actually like, but it works. It works. It's, you know, I mean, yeah. He did his impression of that guy from the Vikings who has to be the doorstop when the Eagles tried to run the tush push. I think it's Levi Rodriguez, I found out, who has that horrible job. Yeah, I think it's challenging. So the other side of the ball, I think, is a little bit more of a mismatch. And I know I looked stupid last week saying, I didn't say the Eagles would. I said they should be able to run on Chicago. And then they completely, obviously, pooped the bed.

1:08:09So Bears fans, you know, I accept. I take my L. They were not. The Bears defense, the mighty Bears defense crushed. Turns out the Eagles offense is that bad. I'm still not a believer in this Bears run defense. and I think there's also just the your point is correct like they need to turn over love and they might so that could happen and I think that would be a big part of the formula for a Bears win here but one thing I've loved about watching Jordan Love over the last few weeks especially um when Christian Watson came back is just the return of aggression like I mean there was a point in the season it was the Eagles game obviously it was like cold and snowy or whatever but like I would look at his average at the target after every game and just say to myself look how they massacred my boy because it was brutal right like five yards air yards for a I'm like this is Jordan Love come on gotta let the chopper sing and they have been since Watson came back and since Watson has come back by the way he is first in average at the target amongst all receivers uh he's 10th in yards per route run he is a true three level you saw this um even though he didn't reel in he only had four catches last game against Detroit but they're using him all three levels even like they converted a couple of like quick outs with him he's their guy against man coverage Chicago plays a reasonable amount of man coverage they play like cover two man you know it's Dennis Allen and um so but but in that game crossers deep outs digs it's really opened up the Packers passing attack again which felt so constricted uh they were kind of flailing with you know they lost Tucker Craft what do we do so the Bears defense dead last and success rate versus throws of 15 yards or more.

1:10:16Just keep it up. That's my key for Green Bay is do not shrink against this team because I've really enjoyed seeing the return. Jordan Love was so good on Thanksgiving. So good. It was awesome. It'll be interesting in terms of how the Bears force turnover and if they can compromise the deep shots at all. The Packers, since they lost Elton Jenkins in week 10, three starting offensive line combinations in four games, which is kind of like par for the course for the Packers too. I feel like that's always a group that's cross-trained guys, mixes up the bags up front. But they've had – Love has been pressured on 40 % of his dropbacks for the fourth week in a row on Thanksgiving.

1:10:55Obviously able to overcome it, but like those tackles against Montez Sweat, who's been the guy that really is the one you can hang your hat on if your Chicago becomes interesting. So that could be the path forward. But the games they were talking about there were against the Eagles pass rush, the Giants, the Vikings, and the Lions. So places that are going to stress you a little bit differently. So I take it with somewhat of a grain of salt. Jordan loves four games where he had the highest average at the target. We're all wins. Weeks one and two and 11 and 13. The Giants and the Lions. Come on.

1:11:26Just do it. Mina, let the chopper sing Kimes wasn't on my bingo card today. Dude, watching, it was honestly just so unpleasant for me personally watching those games where he was just checking it down. I hate it. I hate it. I'm taking the Packers here because I think to beat the Packers defense, you have to have a machine-type quarterback, and I do think Caleb Williams is good. I think he's had great moments this year, but I just question whether or not he's going to play the efficient style. They'll be able to run on them, though, I do think, so it could be close. How about you? I also wrote down Packers for this one, so I think we're a little ways away.

1:12:04Caleb Williams kind of going to be one of those quarterbacks that has to age into like where Josh and Patrick got where they got comfortable making the boring plays. And he's definitely not there yet, to your point. Run game, though. I mean, they're like up there with any in the league at the moment, right? I mean, I said they lead the league in success rate. So for just to remind people, success rate is basically on a down to down basis. How efficient you're on first down. Are you getting five yards a second down? Are you getting, I think, two thirds of the way? and then on third down are you converting?

1:12:35So it's efficiency accounting for down and distance. What Jonah Jackson finds with Ben Johnson is unbelievable. Like, think about it. Had all that success, got him paid, went there, it didn't work out with the Rams, and so now you get him back here on a pretty good deal. He's so good. Absolute chestnut checkers. He's been awesome. Him and Ben Johnson, just the Christmas card exchange must be lovely. The line is just kicking ass on the ground. All right. Rams, Cardinals is you. This one we can be a little bit quick because we got two more big games. And for everyone who's saying I keep picking favorites, if you're watching this, it won't continue.

1:13:15Ooh. Not here. I'm taking the Rams. I'm taking the Rams. I was going to say, as am I. This one, pretty easy. The Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention last week. I saw Jonathan Cannon murmurs about his job in the future there. Obviously, the Kyler Murray stuff went sideways this year. For me, it's just can the Cardinals put any pressure on Matthew Stafford in this game up front? Like, you know, we saw the Matthew Stafford turnover regression come hard last week, three giveaways, two interceptions. One was kind of eh, but you knew that was bound to come anyway. Like he was, I think he broke Brady's streak for touchdowns without an interception at 28.

1:13:49But this year, Stafford all, or excuse me, 28 of his league leading 32 touchdown passes have come when he's not under pressure. And the Cardinals pressure at the seventh lowest rate in the league right now. So can you knock him off his perch at all? Because if you can't, the run game we talked about a little bit earlier with the Seahawks discussion, they have found good footing alternating series with Blake Corum and Kyron Williams, especially for two guys that run as hard as they do, taking some blows off them, can really go. And on the other side, I just don't think they're built to party against what this Rams defensive front is.

1:14:23The maybe one caveat is big group of receivers, and Emmanuel Forbes kind of also had his comeback down to earth games. I thought he had been awesome for like a three or four game stretch there. And he got beat on a couple of the big plays and money downs in that game against the Panthers. So if he locks back in, this defense goes back to being one that's pretty hard to do anything against. Yeah, he got a little greedy. You know, one of those plays he was trying to jump it. And that's his thing. Emmanuel Forbes, for those who don't know, is like the career leader in pick sixes in college football.

1:14:56I think he has the most of any player ever, if I remember. correctly. So he has fantastic instincts, but I do think the way the Rams play, you got to avoid giving up big plays on the back end. And I mean, the thing about Jacoby Brissett is he will push the ball downfield. So I just think that the Rams pressure will be too overwhelming. Especially I think the Panthers had so much success running the ball on LA, which is something I've always kind of been wondering about all year is like who's going to punish this defense on the ground because they're a little lighter on the inside right they've got great pass rushing defensive tackles linebackers have played well but i felt like a really good running team will be able to bring it to them i don't think arizona is that team um and i also think you talk about the run game with la i think they'll be able to run the ball in arizona so i think also they're they're embarrassed they're angry you know it's a bad formula for for the cardinals all right two more games two big games Texans Chiefs I'll go first Chiefs backs against the wall can they pressure CJ Stroud without blitzing him is what I wrote so I am not entirely buying into the Texans offensive line and offense being fixed from the beginning season i think competition is factored into it and whatnot however i do think they look competent in a way they didn't last year in terms of like picking up pressure and like you know where last year just felt like endless unblocked rushers they couldn't pick up a stunt to save their life and while they're not again they're not dominant this year i think that they're better at it um something i talked about with dominique was how abysmal this chiefs defense has been when they blitz.

1:16:51Offenses are simply picking it up and quarterbacks are finding the holes in coverage. I actually just sent this to Orlovsky because, you know, the blitzing numbers are insane for Kansas City. Like they're the worst defense in the NFL pretty much when they blitz. So I picked, I pulled up zone blitzes because I was like, well, that's the C. Spagnuolo special here. Like they're so good at that. So they've zone blitzed 43 times. They've allowed 12 yards per play and they've gotten one sack off of it just crazy um i'm interested so the texans play pretty condensed formations are probably going to send corners a couple times and you know i don't want to count out stagnola per se but like i'm just i just feel like if they can avoid giving up big plays and if they can find a way to get pressure without sacrificing bodies and coverage They stand a better chance against, especially, by the way, you saw the Chiefs corners get kind of bodied by the gigantic, the big Cowboys receivers.

1:18:00These Texas receivers, I was thinking about this watching them against Nico or against the Colts DBs, Nico Collins and Jaden Higgins. That's a big group duo. I don't like the idea of McDuffie and Watson against those guys in man coverage. So I think this one, just put a roof on it. But Darren Maron the ball, I still don't believe in the Texans' run game. And then just bow up in the red zone. This Texans team cannot score. They are, this is Rivers McCown, who's a Texans fan who writes for FTN Fantasy, I believe. I saw him post about this. Texans have the worst red zone DVOA in the league at minus 38%.

1:18:37So, you know, I like the Chiefs' chances in the red zone. I would agree. Glad you brought up the Jaden Higgins point too. He's been awesome. Like everything you saw in college from him in terms of the basketball and grass ability to use his body against smaller defenders. So that combined with Nico, pretty difficult. My big worry and like my keys for Houston on the other side, like unsurprisingly, like we know what the formula against Kansas city is on offense and going into this game, Josh Simmons had surgery on his wrist and is heading to IR. Andy Reid said today. Trey Smith's nursing an ankle injury that kept him out last week.

1:19:17Jawan Taylor had a triceps injury, so they had both tackles. And let me tell you, Wanya Morris did not have a great time last week when he got into that game. So, like, I don't know, man. I just look at that against what we talked about earlier with Houston up front. Like, the key is you got to sack Mahomes. Like, he doesn't get pressured much. They're like a bottom five team in terms of pressure rate allowed because Mahomes is so good at getting the ball out against that stuff. They've got those quick answers a lot. But in terms of, we've always seen, the formula for beating Kansas City is sawing off the head of the snake.

1:19:48And this group in particular, with how banged up the Chiefs are at critical spots, should have a field day going after him this weekend. So I want to pose a question to you about the Texans. I brought this up with Dominique because I don't want to be dramatic here, but watching this defense, it really is like, this is why I love this sport.

1:20:15I was talking about them on NFL Live, and it looked like I was crying at the Texas defense. And I wasn't crying. It's because we were in Foxborough, and the wind was so brutal. My eyes were watering. And it looked like, as I was talking about Aziz Alshair running down and check down versus the Blitz to Tyler Warren and tackling him in the open field, it looked like I was getting visibly emotional. talking about it but I mean how how can you not be romantic about football watching Will Anderson lined up as the spinner that was so crass and offensive to my culture as an offensive lineman watching what he did in the middle I hate it I hate that that's allowed and I hate that that defense just goes out there and makes those guys look like he's he's a freak the actual question No, sorry.

1:21:10What do you do? Like, where do you attack? Because they don't have, there's nowhere to hide. That's what I think watching them. There's nowhere to hide. Like, they blitz. There's no, like, there's no obvious thing you can do. I have one thing, and I think it does matter in this game, but I want to hear if you have any thoughts on, like, what would you do? No, because, like, to your point, like, there's no, like, there's no fish. There's no guy that you can look at and go, So, all right, that's the one that we're going to get over on, especially, I mean, the front seven, forget talking about the cornerback tandem.

1:21:42So, no, I just, I think it's one of those where, like, it's the, it's a game that completely warps how you allocate resources up front. And especially with backups in there, like, you cannot have a play, especially on a critical down, where you've got less than four hands hitting both of those guys on the edge, for sure. But to your point, like, once you put Will inside, it compromises so many of your rules and protection about how you're going to do that. especially if you want to involve running backs, tight ends, all these different ways. Like D 'Amico Ryan's in this group have done such a good job of trying to insulate those guys in critical moments from those kind of things that you'd normally do in protection.

1:22:19And Andy Reid's always someone like we've talked about in the past, doesn't always do a lot to help those guys in ways that people think they should. So I don't really know. That's the other thing too. Like, okay, you want to help out your tackles against these horrifying monsters. Cool. now you have three guys running routes and oh they don't even need extra people to cover them because they have guys you can man them up so it's like it you know football is very much about numbers and they have a numbers advantage across the board because they're none of their players need help and they all command and then up front they command extra attention it's kind of right it's like a math problem that's impossible to solve.

1:23:03That's how I would describe this defense. I started in a cool way and I made it nerdy. Also, man, every time they make a play, the camera cuts to D 'Amico Ryans. And I'm like, I just want someone to believe in me as much as D 'Amico Ryans believes in like Kalen Bullock or whatever, whoever he's giving a high five. I would kill for one of those high fives. He's so jacked after every play. He's jacked too, but after every play. Yeah, physically. the thing I said that I would do is I still think quarterbacks can run on them structurally because of the way they play and this has been an issue with them for a couple years so wouldn't be surprised if Mahomes legs be factor in this one as they tend to be in gotta have it games but I'm saying it I'm going Houston here I just I can't bet against this defense right now I can't I just want it for the record like I'm not just following here I have it written down in my notes that the pick was Houston.

1:23:58Because again, I don't know how many times I need to see it, like all the Mahomes and Chiefs belief in the world. We know what beats them, and it's exactly the Houston Texans and the way that they're formulated up front right now against them. And also, you talking about the Texans defense made me think of the meme you posted of how Pats fans look at Drake May. That picture of you on the field is how you look at the Houston Texans defense. I mean, everybody should look at them that way. the other thing I would say if Chris Jones goes crazy they get a chance I think that's you know I talked about the pressure before I should have mentioned that there I like that matchup Chris Jones against this Houston the interior of the offensive line and you know like the Colts game he went absolutely nuclear yes need that to happen again you need your two best players yeah Harloff does show up at all I was just about to say the problem Chris Jones doesn't even have help so if I'm Texas, I'm just doubling and tripling him constantly.

1:24:56Final game, Eagles-Chargers in LA.

1:25:03The reeling Philadelphia Eagles. I keep saying reeling, but that's an accurate word to describe them. The Chargers, whose quarterback just broke his left hand. Dear God. He is like bad luck Brian. Let me double check. I think he's playing, but I'm going to double check. Trey Lance is their backup. He's day-to-day. Ay-yi-yi-yi-yi. He's going to play. All right, well, my key for the Chargers name, regardless of who plays, they got to run the ball in Philly. So the Bears, what they did to Philadelphia is unique because I think that we talked about it. They're like the best running team in football.

1:25:48But the Eagles' run defense has been very gettable. This year, they're 26 in success rate versus the run, and they're just average in e-paper play. Some of that is by design. They play with the highest light box rate in the NFL. But your Chargers team with an injured quarterback, you know, an okay group of receivers. They ran the ball well last week. Kamani Vidal, 25 carries, 5 yards a clip on Vegas. I think Omarion Hampton might be back for this one. Something tomorrow. I was just going to say, I think I'd heard rumblings of that this week. So, you know, it's just you don't want this. I mean, given the way the Eagles offense is playing, I'm not going to even put the word shootout in a sentence associated with this game.

1:26:39But I do like the idea of them controlling the game, controlling the football, limiting the possessions of the Eagles offense, making them play tight. And I think they can be able to run them. Chargers have averaged 132 rush yards per game since week four. Like it's a team that we talked about a lot last year that wanted to run the ball, but just wasn't good at it. Has even in the midst of their top two running backs getting hurt, you know, Kamani Vidal deserves a bunch of credit for that. The O-line who's done that with a group that's entirely banged up and devoid of its best players deserve some credit for that.

1:27:16And you're right. The Eagles just surprise, surprise, drafted the entire Georgia national championship front seven, and then have proceeded to run what Georgia ran, which is a bunch of light box looks. The Eagles do more for two than the mint stuff that Georgia ran in college. But like, you know, it's if it ain't dork, don't fix it. But I wrote down in this one, just in the interest of like not making everything skew towards the line of scrimmage. Like we always talk about the Philly second cornerback kind of thing. And that matchup there, like you are in a game where Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkie, both top 30 in yards among receivers.

1:27:50They're both over 600 yards. I saw the stat today. Keenan Allen leads the NFL in receptions on third downs. He's second best. The Chargers overall second best third down percentage in the NFL. The Eagles 25th in third down defense. So, yeah, I was just as surprised as you. But that always seems to be a place where, again, I don't know how you're going to have the time to necessarily do that because on the other side, the Eagles' defensive front, since they added Jalen Phillips, has been one that's been great at getting pressure. The Chargers are obviously in hell with that right now. But if you can, we know that they've got two receivers capable of stressing the Eagles where it hurts.

1:28:31So I think that this is an Eagles bounce-back game because I think, I know I said run the ball, and Chicago run the ball, whatever. I do not think this Chargers offensive line can get the kind of movement that Chicago got on, even with the light boxes and whatnot. I still think, and then get into second, third, and long, and it's open season on this offensive line right now with that pass rush. So I think there'll be more opportunities than there were against Chicago for them to get after the quarterback, even if he plays faster. but I just think it's still such a mismatch to the line of scrimmage that favors Philadelphia.

1:29:10We should probably talk about the Eagles offense. If we have to. Well, let's just try to, because these are all broken records on the struggles and it's the same stuff. If there's one thing you would like to see Philadelphia do in this game offensively that's realistic, that's something they actually will do, what would it be?

1:29:39Man, that's realistic becomes the interesting part of this. Right. Yeah. I mean, I guess I forget where we've been in the last couple weeks. I know season long it's been there, but like, you know, Jalen Hurts in the design run game again. That was one of mine. That was one of mine. In case of emergency. Do it. Now. We talk about that with these quarterbacks getting towards postseason time Anyway, if not now, then when, Philly? Like, go and do what Buffalo does with Josh this time of year? Chargers, I feel like, also. I've seen them give up some pretty big games on the ground. I think so. Let me pull it up now.

1:30:15It feels right in my head, but I'm going to make sure before I spout off. I'm trying to think of the running quarterbacks that they've gone against. I'm thinking about week one. I know that's a long way. Rush position quarterback. yeah i mean i think it's been such a missing component of this offense in terms of changing the numbers for defenses and actually creating a little bit of a little bit of uncertainty all right so chargers i was buying time for myself uh wow the rams have only given up negative 13 yards to quarterbacks the chargers this is what i thought okay so the chargers have given up uh 369 rushing yards to quarterbacks which is 28th league wide wow so there you go yeah yeah yeah um god negative 13 la jeez good lord you always gotta look at schedule with because so much of these things can be skewed by all right like which quarterbacks did you go up against the charges i remember mahomes ran for them quite a but uh yards per carry yeah they're also bad it's 5.7 which is 20 30th so anyways that's something that that philadelphia could do is lean a little bit more into the the quarterback keeper game um chargers we know with jesse mentor is going to play a ton of split safety so you're not going to have those you know the same one-on-ones dallas goddard i would throw out there as a guy who you'd probably want to get going in this one work in the middle of the field a little bit um I think the RPOs could be I feel like I'm such a broken record I'm always saying this with Philadelphia RPO is Dallas Goddard quarterback run it's all the offense has right now like as presently structured like that regression and creativity from last year with Kellen Moore to now like it kind of doesn't get to your point you asked about realistic options You just named them.

1:32:15That's what we've seen is the things that they can break glass on. I'm still picking Philly here because I think the defense, I think the Philadelphia defense, the dominance at the line of scrimmage ends up being the difference in this game. I also picked Philly. My continued goal for the Chargers this season is that Justin Herbert just walks off the field under his own power. I think you're the one that said the Chargers, when the coaching jobs came up that it's like buying a great house that someone's been murdered in. Like the same thing can't keep happening across so many regimes and different players, and yet it does.

1:32:51It's always the Chargers O-line. And I just want one year for both of these tackles to go wall-to-wall and just let me see what happened then. The crazy thing is like it's not like, you know, other – I'm trying to think of – like Houston where you can point to them and be like, well, did they invest in it? Like the Chargers invested in it. They drafted. They just have had horrible luck. Yeah. I do think a charge defense is a tough matchup for Philadelphia. Just the way they play. The style gives this Eagles offense trouble. I'd like to see Philadelphia run the ball too, but I'm never going to bet on that again.

1:33:31Backfired on me big time. But, yeah, that's it for this week. All right. I picked a couple underdogs. Houston. Dallas. We both picked Dallas. Famous last words. Mike, where can folks check out your work? Yes. Golik and Golik, Monday through Friday, 3.30 to 5.30 p.m. Eastern on FanDuel Sports Network, wherever you've got that. I also do a Notre Dame football podcast, which is very lively at this time of year, considering we're in college football playoff territory. The Echoes, me and Jessica Smetana, who you guys have seen over on the Levitard Show. And Mina, I just got to thank you for the outlet to come hear about a sport that feels so comparatively sane.

1:34:10relative to the one that I live in in college football. Are you guys going to drop a podcast explaining whether or not Catholicism is in fact Christianity? Because that's the discourse I was saying online today. If you don't understand that reference, I'm so envious of you. Otherwise, go look it up. Some takes are being dropped about college football rankings that made me glad to be in the safe, warm confines of the simple NFL. I also have a podcast coming out later this week so we took a week off Viewer Discretion with David Dennis Jr. My TV podcast is back and we are finally talking about my favorite show on television Pluribus and have you watched it yet?

1:34:55I haven't and this is the push I needed to go and get started Episode 1 is amazing Episode 2, 5 is a little bit down still good but Episode 6 of Pluribus which is where we're going to start because that drops on Friday. We're going to recap 1 through 6. It is my favorite episode of television I think of the last like 10 years. It is... And you're a Better Call Saul guy, right? Yes, big time. Oh my God, come on. You got to watch the show. It's so freaking good and I cannot wait to talk about it with David. So check out Viewer Discretion wherever you get your pods. Thank you again to my friends at Meadowlark Media for letting me use Pablo's studio, which I must say is very clean and smells good.

1:35:38And credit to Pablo. And thank you as always to the people who make the show at Omaha Productions, Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Jack Foster, Tucker Taschen. You can check this out on YouTube. You can check out other stuff I do on YouTube and go follow the show on Instagram at instagram.com slash at Mina Kimes, where I chose the worst year ever to do power rankings every week, but I am going to forge on and do my top five. Mike, top five. Picking the top five teams in the NFL right now is basically impossible. Every week, number one loses. We do power rankings on Wednesdays on Golik and Golik, and every week, it is an absolute battle.

1:36:16So you are God's strongest soldier this year. All right. I will see you guys on Tuesday.

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