Steeler’s Choice: An AFC North Preview

2 Jul 2025 · 1 h 31 min · 31 chapters

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In short

AFC North preview focused mainly on the Steelers, with a brief detour into the Dolphins and a longer segment previewing the Browns. For the Steelers, the episode centers on how new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s tight-end-heavy approach fits Aaron Rodgers, whether the Steelers’ run game and offensive line can improve, and how the defense changes with Jalen Ramsey after Minka Fitzpatrick’s departure. It also discusses the Ravens matchup problem (run defense and discipline vs motion) and whether the Steelers’ “all-in” offseason is financially sustainable.

Guests

Robert Mays (The Athletic Football Show). Lenny (Muni Kimes Show host).

Key claims

  • Steelers offense: Jonnu Smith + Pat Freiermuth + Darnell Washington can work because they create “weirdness” and support screens/slide routes/play-action, especially if Rodgers plays within a rigid system.
  • Rodgers concerns: diminished arm talent, poor blitz performance, and weak intermediate production; success depends on quick game and the Steelers running effectively.
  • Offensive line/run game must jump to roughly top-12 efficiency; otherwise nothing else matters.
  • Defense: Ramsey should be used in the nickel to fix single-high coverage issues and help vs Baltimore’s tight-end run game and motion.
  • Steelers offseason risk is limited: small draft-capital cost and cap space flexibility.

Notable examples

  • Steelers used 12/13 personnel at ~40% last year; comparison to 2020 Browns play-action screens to tight ends.
  • Browns offense vision: run/ball-control outside zone + power, play-action heavy, low dropback volume (like early Saints with Derek Carr).
  • Browns QB room: Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco, plus rookies Dylan Gabriel and Shador Sanders; Gabriel favored slightly for decision-making/mental maturity.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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Ad Budget Issues in Marketing

0:00 to 0:28

Discussion on the challenges of marketing metrics and their visibility to CFOs.

“Blowing ad budget on metrics that look great till the CFO sees them.”

AFC North Division Preview

0:45 to 1:30

Discussion on the AFC North and the Steelers' recent news.

Reactions to Miami Dolphins Trades

1:30 to 2:20

Hosts share their thoughts on the Miami Dolphins and player trades.

“Like this Dolphins team, I truly don't have any idea what to make of it.”

Steelers Offensive Strategy

2:20 to 4:06

Analysis of the Steelers' offensive changes and player roles.

“They have no players under rookie contracts.”

The Role of Tight Ends in Pittsburgh

4:06 to 6:16

Discussion on the fit and impact of tight ends in the Steelers' offense.

“So you and I were chatting a little bit before we started recording.”

Quarterback Dynamics and Challenges

6:16 to 10:02

Examining Aaron Rodgers' role and performance expectations for 2025.

“adds something to this offense that could help it?”

Final Thoughts on Offensive Structure

10:02 to 14:01

Discussion on the necessary offensive structure for success and Rodgers' adaptability.

“Because I obviously kind of already gave away a little bit about what I think he needs to play like.”

Quarterback Performance Analysis

14:01 to 20:56

A deep dive into quarterback efficiency and the impact on offense.

“He just doesn't want to play that way anymore.”

Offensive Line and Run Game Challenges

20:56 to 28:01

Discussing the critical role of the offensive line and potential improvements.

“He was the star position with the LA Rams.”

Analyzing Team Strategies and Future Outlook

28:01 to 29:52

Discussion on the recent team decisions affecting future seasons.

“Here's the reason I don't have an active problem with it.”
Show all 31 chapters

Transitioning to the Cleveland Browns

29:52 to 30:11

Shifting focus from the Ravens to the Browns and their quarterback situation.

“Like we both like the Johnny Smith addition.”

Cleveland Browns Offense: Key Questions

30:11 to 32:49

Exploring the uncertainties in the Browns' offense and quarterback role.

“probably do the least on the Ravens just based on the amount of time I've already spent talking about them.”

Evaluating Quarterback Options for the Browns

32:49 to 35:44

Discussion on various quarterbacks and their potential fit in the Browns' offense.

“This is, he was like, this feels like 20, 20, 21 with outside zone and power are mixed in Joel Batonio talking.”

Complications in the Browns' Quarterback Competition

35:44 to 37:59

Analyzing the complexities of the Browns' quarterback competition and its implications.

“so about those two young quarterbacks and sort of whether they fit in the type of offense we've been talking about a little bit.”

Browns Offensive Scheme and Future Strategies

37:59 to 42:00

Examining the Browns' offensive scheme and potential improvements for success.

“all right, think about where Kenny Pickett has been his entire life.”

Browns Offense: Scheme Changes and Potential

42:00 to 44:40

Discussing the Browns' offensive line and run game adjustments for improvement.

“and it never worked and then last year they move on from bill and they go even well bill moves on from them.”

Defensive Regression: What Went Wrong

44:40 to 47:10

Analyzing the Browns' defensive struggles and the impact of pressure statistics.

“I think, and this is going to be like, I'm starting to build this point and I'm starting to build.”

Impact of Offense on Defensive Performance

47:10 to 50:10

Examining how the Browns' offensive performance affects their defense's effectiveness.

“It helps back to the pressure thing though.”

Bengals Defense: Past Struggles and Future Outlook

53:26 to 56:00

Evaluating the Bengals' defensive issues from last year and personnel changes.

“Life insurance is one of those things that's easy to put off because it doesn't feel urgent today.”

Defensive Importance of Trey Hendrickson

56:00 to 57:45

Discussion on the crucial role of Trey Hendrickson in the Bengals' defense.

“A rookie linebacker, Demetrius Knight is in.”

Coaching Changes and Defensive Strategy

57:45 to 1:02:38

Analysis of the Bengals' defensive coordinator change and expected impacts.

“And that's actually where I want to start with you because I, I, I find it really interesting.”

Offensive Projections for the Bengals

1:02:38 to 1:04:21

Exploring expectations for the Bengals' offense heading into the new season.

“That's usually how it happens is that you bring in the right coordinator and it hits.”

Joe Burrow's Evolution as a Quarterback

1:04:21 to 1:09:52

Insights into Joe Burrow's growth and the potential for future improvement.

“Cause they would say, well, we had to pay, you know, Jamar and T are about to talk about like, there were lower.”

Concerns About the Bengals' Guard Situation

1:09:52 to 1:10:04

Addressing worries regarding the Bengals' offensive line and free agency decisions.

Analyzing Team Dynamics and Offensive Challenges

1:10:04 to 1:14:00

Discussion on team dynamics, quarterback performance, and offensive line issues.

“How much better would you feel right now?”

Analyzing Team Dynamics and Offensive Challenges

1:14:29 to 1:15:19

Discussion on team dynamics, quarterback performance, and offensive line issues.

“In this time of the year, with the kids back in school surrounded by hundreds of others, yours may bring home a whole new world of viruses and bacteria your family may have no immunity to.”

Ravens Team Analysis: Offense and Defense Insights

1:15:59 to 1:24:00

In-depth analysis of the Ravens' offense and defense, highlighting strengths and concerns.

“Because I've spent a lot of time talking about both this offense and this defense over the last two weeks.”

Ravens' Coaching Decisions and Team Dynamics

1:24:00 to 1:26:23

Explore the strategic decisions made by the Ravens' coaching staff and the impact on team performance.

“for how to figure out the right coordinators for the right players on his team time and time again, even like going to Greg Roman when he did in 2019 and understanding that was the right choice at the time.”

Psychological Impact of Near Victories

1:26:23 to 1:28:58

Discuss the psychological effects on the Ravens from losing key games despite strong performances.

“Like this was the best team in football at various points.”

Anticipating the Upcoming NFL Season

1:28:58 to 1:32:29

Analyze upcoming matchups and the implications for the Ravens and other teams in the division.

“But my, my zag take is that it's actually a good thing for the Ravens that Lamar did not win the MVP because now you can do this like weird twisted thing where he feels slightly.”

Anticipating the Upcoming NFL Season

1:33:13 to 1:33:24

Analyze upcoming matchups and the implications for the Ravens and other teams in the division.

“No two football players are exactly alike, and the same is true off the field.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Blowing ad budget on metrics that look great till the CFO sees them. That's bull spend. And marketers are calling it out in dashboard confessions.

0:09Robert Mays:I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand when leads were slow. Yeah, it wasn't. Cut the bull spend. LinkedIn lets you target by company, job title, and more. Advertise on LinkedIn. Spend$250 on your first campaign and get a$250 credit. Go to linkedin.com slash campaign. Terms and conditions apply.

0:33welcome back to the muni kimes show featuring lenny only nfl podcast one of the hosts links the name of the steelers offensive coordinator is arthur smith that's lenny i mean it kimes speaking of arthur arthur now i'm gonna call it arthur smith forever speaking of arthur smith and the steelers this is our first division preview and uh robert mays who is joining me from the athletic football show really couldn't have timed this any better because the steelers decided to make a ton of news uh this week in what would seem like it was going to be a dead week how are you doing over there you guys tape a lot i know has this thrown your whole schedule into

1:08Robert Mays:tumult yes a little bit but that's okay you know we're in the same boat here it's the summer we're banking stuff in advance we're trying to fit all the puzzle pieces together and something like this is going to throw a wrench into it but i'm going to take a layup on june 30th when they're going to give us things to talk about it i'm not going to complain about that yeah well we're literally talking so it was actually perfect timing because this is a first division preview we agreed to the afc north and this most dramatically affects the afc north obviously it also affects the miami dolphins uh as well as their decision to trade for darren waller uh before we get to the stealer second we're not gonna talk about the dolphins i'm gonna do the afc east i'll talk about minka fitzpatrick on the dolphins there which i do think is legitimately interesting just give me in like just what was your reaction to seeing darren waller on your social timeline this morning The Dolphins, could they be any weirder?

1:58Robert Mays:Like this Dolphins team, I truly don't have any idea what to make of it. And I said something about that on social media. And I think people took that to mean I thought the Dolphins were going to be terrible. And people are like, they're going to be better than you expect. And I was like, no, no, no. This isn't about quality. This is about my complete inability to understand what they're trying to accomplish and how they're going to get there. You know what? they're like your friend who everybody criticizes for something like maybe he i don't know this is very i'll stick with the dolphin scene maybe you have a friend who wears shorts to formal outings and your other friend stage an intervention like hey dude maybe you should wear pants sometime and he shows up at a wedding in the shortest shorts you've ever seen just to spite everybody that's how i feel about the miami dolphins and this move they're committing to the bit of being the miami Dolphins um I don't know man it's I I I don't like it's hard to talk about because I agree there I don't think they're even bad I think the offense is gonna be good with or without Darren Waller but this doesn't make this logical I totally agree and I think the offense if things break right the idea of and listen the Jonah Savanella trade like I've talked about this way too much over the last three or four months like it's indefensible but if you look at the makeup of the Dolphins roster.

3:19They have no players under rookie contracts.

3:22Robert Mays:None. They have the lowest number in the league. They did not make any draft picks for like two years. And at some point you have to start accounting for that trading away mid round picks to move up for interior offensive lineman is not a way to do that. But if you look at the roster just on its own, him plus James Daniels, if he comes back healthy and a Patrick Paul can do something, there's a chance this is the best offensive line we've ever seen with Mike McDaniel in Miami. You combine that with the skill position players. If the quarterback stays healthy, they absolutely could be good on offense, but let's not talk about the cornerback room and how the defense is supposed to offset any of that.

3:56I'm hoping by the time I get to the AFC East, they'll have signed, I don't know, Santi Samuel Jr. or whatever, but okay. That's enough Miami Dolphins talk. We're here to talk about the Steelers. Really? So you and I were chatting a little bit before we started recording. What I love about player player trades is they really are two teams betting on talent. Now, I think for Miami, there was financial reasons as well. They did both of these trades, to be honest, particularly with regards to Jalen Ramsey. And by the way, Broncos fans, if you're seething, kudos to you for not eating his salary. I thought they were going to have to.

4:27So that's a win for your front office. But anyways, clearly, though, the Steelers thought Jalen Ramsey was a better fit for their defense than making the pitch. I find that really interesting. Clearly, Arthur Smith coveted Johnny Smith. he's like his Devante he's uh he's like his Randall Cobb maybe who yeah that sounds right

4:52Robert Mays:yeah it's Devante Adams is worth chasing every single year we can argue about the veracity of chasing John O'Smith every single year even though he was very good last season it is worth the knowledge um I saw him at the Pro Bowl in Orlando last year and I I really they were wearing their t-shirts not their jerseys right and I and it took me a second I had never seen him without his helmet on i realized it took me i was like who is that tight end and i was like oh god of course johnny smith who did have a great season so let's talk about him and the stealer's offense first and then we'll talk about jaylen and the defense um so right now um it's obviously aaron rogers wide receiver group dk metcalf calvin austin robert woods roman wilson i don't even know what order to name those guys other than dk metcalf but there you go tight ends notably and this is where i want to start with you friar moose darnell washington johnny smith uh the run game the uh running back room has been changed as of course they drafted caleb johnson jalen warren kenneth gainwell it's now on sealers uh and then the offensive line which we should talk about at like rodrick jones samalu frazier zach frazier mason mccormick uh troy faoutanu i think that's how they're gonna be oriented so let's talk about the tight ends first um this was a team that used a ton of 12 or 13 personnel last year unsurprisingly i think sixth highest rate of 13 in the NFL.

6:09How do you think those three tight ends fit together? And do you think that Jonu Smith with Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback adds something to this offense that could help it? I do.

6:21Robert Mays:I actually do like this from a football perspective. And it's the reason for that is I think that both Jonu Smith and Pat Frymouth are more move tight ends, right? So you could say they're a little bit redundant in that way, but they're very different players stylistically. Like Frymouth is kind of a seam runner and that piece within your offense. That's not really what John Smith is. And if you look at the makeup of the Steelers offense, this isn't the sort of group that has the receiving talent to be like a conventional drop back team and be successful. And I think what John Smith does, he pushes you into a realm of weirdness that I think this team needs to occupy for them to be okay.

7:01Robert Mays:Offensively all, and they didn't run a ton of screens with the Steelers last year. Arthur Smith has never been a big screen guy, but I'm just thinking of the best application of John Smith screens, slide routes, anything you can do to get the ball in his hands and let him go to work after the catch. They didn't have that skillset within the offense. And I think they're going to need to have that sort of skillset in order to produce even a passable passing game. And so that idea of him just being this weird player in a weird group and that being the best path for them, I can actually get on board with that pretty easily.

7:35Yeah, I'm right there with you. I actually liked this part maybe the best of it. Maybe because I think Minkah, Pispatch, and Jalen Ramsey, they're not similar players, but I think the level of improvement is weirdly similar. I don't think Jalen Ramsey dramatically improves it or Minkah and vice versa. Whereas Jonu, I was like, oh, I like this. I like it because what you said, which is, first of all, I want to see which team used the most 13 personnel last year. What was it, the Cardinals probably? I have true media open.

8:05Robert Mays:The Steelers were at 40 % multiple tight end sets last year when you combine 12 and 13, which I think was one of the highest in the leagues, if not the highest. So it was the Cardinals at 15.6. I want the Steelers to top 20. I want them to break 13 personnel records. I want, you know, leave DK on the field or whatever, because I'm in agreement with you. I think the three of them work well together and they do do different things in the offense and putting them on the field at the same time with a quarterback who's incredibly cerebral and good at diagnosing matchups. It makes sense to me. I think we both agree, too, that for an Aaron Rodgers offense to succeed in 2025, they have to run the football well, and the ball's got to come out quick out of his hands.

8:47If those two things don't happen, this is dead on arrival. Jonu Smith, to me, he's not a great blocker, but as an outlet for Rodgers, guy who can get you hours after the catch, guy who can you line up in the backfield, makes a ton of sense. And like you said, Briar Muth is more of the, he's probably the most traditional of the bunch, but yeah, I actually feel like when I think about this quarterback and what it takes to succeed, that to me also helps this make more sense. Because I think if you think about the office, you list lens, it actually has an identity and that identity makes sense to me.

9:20Robert Mays:If I'm trying to figure out the best parallel for this offense, the best comparison, like if this works out, this is what it would look like. I go back to like the 2020 Browns. Think about the construction of those teams when they had Harrison Bryant and David and Joku and Austin Hooper. They were running a lot of 12 and 13 personnel. And the best thing they did in the passing game was throw play action screens to those guys. If I were Arthur Smith and Tom Arth and all those guys on that offensive coaching staff, I would be just watching old Kevin Stefanski tapes from those offenses because relying on the tight ends in the passing game, the screen game, and just being dynamic and dominant on the ground.

9:57Robert Mays:That is the best path forward for this team, no matter who's playing quarterback. Well, I think that brings me back to the quarterback. Because I obviously kind of already gave away a little bit about what I think he needs to play like. But let's talk about why that is. because first of all, I agree with you completely about the Browns 2020 offense. And like, especially when you look at these players and you look at the running back that they drafted, who I really like, and you look at the potential of this offensive line, all of that makes sense. My question for you is in 2025, will Aaron Rodgers go along with this?

10:33Will he agree to this vision? Will he execute it? Will he play on time? if he plays on time uh will he be averse to pressure you know so so and I should probably start we can't predict the future but I think we should probably start by talking about who Aaron Rodgers was in 2024 because there seems to be a lot of disagreement about this um folks who said he was you know he didn't deserve as much blame for the jet season uh he could still throw the ball he can still throw the ball right like he's still there are still throws on tape from last year, end of last year, beautiful slot fade, you know, over the middle of the field, some seam balls, perfectly on time, Garrett Wilson, right in the numbers.

11:14My issue with him is I found one, he doesn't have the arm talent he used to. And when I say arm talent, it's different from arm strength. He can't make the crazy out of structure stuff. And sometimes it's like, he still thinks he can and he can't. Two, I actually, you know, his accuracy was really all over the place, I thought, Robert. So what do you think about his skillset? And do you think he needs to evolve at all this year evolve evolve probably isn't the term i would use i i think the

11:42Robert Mays:evolution for him is like becoming a more minimized part of the offense right where he's not controlling everything he's not dictating how it's going to go coming into last season i remember we did on our show just kind of a a bare bones look at what aaron rogers was the last time he actually played football. And that was at the end of the 2022 season. Right. And so we went back and watched and was like, all right, what was Aaron Rogers for real that last year in green Bay? And I think you could say a lot of the same things then that you can now, the arm is still pretty live. He's still capable of doing all these things.

12:15Robert Mays:My issue with him that year with the Packers is that he just seemed completely disinterested in playing the place. He wasn't reading stuff out. It was a lot of I'm throwing goal balls. I'm throwing that member Nate Tyson, our show, the phrase he used was performative deep balls that that was there were a lot of performative deep balls for Aaron Rogers back then and I think what happened with the Jets last year is similar to that with him as an even more diminished player physically the amount of slot fades he threw to take one-on-ones the amount of free access throws on the outside I just don't think he really wants to play within the structure of the offense anymore and I think one of the answers to that is to potentially make the structure of the offense as rigid as possible and not allow him to color outside of the lines.

13:00Robert Mays:If you're using, if you're running the ball 40 times a game, if there are a ton of screens, a ton of like play action throws to the flat, just trying to make sure you're taking the pen out of his hands as often as you can, because he's not really willing to live within the offensive system. I think that's probably the route that I would take whether he's willing to do that that's an entirely different conversation yeah I would say grabbing some of his stats from last year two of the things that concerned me the most one was the performance against the blitz which was dismal defenses figured that out and I think there's this people blame the Jets offensive line I'm gonna plant my flag they weren't that bad last year I this I that's like I just yeah There's a litany of reasons why he was bad against the blitz.

13:49We can talk about it. A lot of it has to do with, frankly, what you were just saying. But and then the other thing is how bad he was intermediate. Like, you know, that was always where Aaron Rodgers made his bread and butter. Always top three intermediate 10 to 20 yards. And he was, again, bottom of the NFL last year, 30th in QPR. He has no interest in doing it anymore.

14:06Robert Mays:He just doesn't want to play that way anymore. Either the ball's short or he's trying those one on ones. And I think if he can't do that, you know, because what you're talking about, the Browns offense, we're OK, we're doing the play action pass or creating, you know, we got these heavy dudes on the field. We've got the wide zone run game. We're throwing the ball into the voids created by that. He has to be a part of that, I think, for all of this to work. Yeah. And I think the number that sticks out to me, I don't have them in front of me, but if you look at your next gen throws in under two and a half seconds, he has one of the highest totals in the league last year and he was throwing them one of the highest rates but the other guys who are doing that consistently often they're doing it because it's beneficial to the offense to uh and the way the offense in miami works uh joe burrow and just how quickly he's getting rid of the ball these days with rogers he had one of the worst some of the worst efficiency numbers on those throws in the league but he's consistently doing that and again it's almost like just he's punting on plays so consistently and i think you're starting to feel that.

15:06Robert Mays:And so him just not willing to, again, play the plays and play them in the rhythm that they're supposed to happen. I just don't know if that's going to change at this point in his career, considering the last two full years, we've seen him as a starter. He's had the same issue in both of those years. And that's such a great point about the quick game stuff, because sometimes it looks amazing. Like I would say he's still throwing slants, hitching, like he's still and I mentioned earlier the intermittent accuracy I think what's important to emphasize is how much of those sprays or inaccurate throws are connected to what you just described which is anticipating pressure and that is something that doesn't show up in the stats it just looks like he's bad at quick game and it doesn't it show him as being pressured so you look at the numbers and like it doesn't reflect what we're actually describing is that like you're like oh okay he's still good at quick pay and then you look at the numbers you're like why is he so bad at quick game and it's because we are just describing because what is quick game is not always supposed to be quick or it's not actually helping the offense um i do want to like uh hit dk metcalf briefly because uh even if they do play uh this you know gigantic offenses we hope well dk is also gigantic um interesting pairing right like so uh i'll i'll to share my thoughts and and you know we've talked about this and you can tell me what you think um because i have been asked about this and first of all if you're in fantasy i would absolutely buy dk because who the hell else is getting the football on this offense oh you you say that until johnny smith gets 130 targets this year arthur smith in the corner rubbing his hands together um okay so uh dk mcalf is good at some of the things that aaron rogers likes to do now we talked about you know the go balls slants hitches that's a very not insubstantial portion of dk mackass route tree uh and dk has the ability to win those one-on-ones if rogers trusts him on on some of it the plants i'm thinking of the slants in particular he's really good at using his big body to box out dbs and get you a first down um other aspects of it crossers work in the middle of the field that's just not what rogers really does these days and of course the other piece of this is the nuance and timing aspect of it which is if you had to give one ding on dk that would be it for me there's just a lot of you know moments where geno smith clearly thought he was gonna be one place he wasn't sometimes high leverage situations yeah that's a problem yeah that's a problem so I guess what I'm saying is there's good and there's bad in this relationship it does not strike me as a perfect match but there is potential for it to at least be productive I think so too I think the slants is the first place my mind would go because he'll still rip a slant and obviously DK is really good on those like working off of that sort of route stem I think that the goal ball part of it if they are like actual deep balls where they're trying to push the ball down the field that part of it works any sort of back shoulder game with dk mcalf just makes my skin start to crawl and so i think that's the issue that you run into is that you know when he's been at his best rogers with these true number one receivers within the offense they've had such a connection there's just been such an ease of communication and reading body language and there just is a really deep understanding of how all the different versions of this play can play out and i just think dk mcalf has struggled to become that sort of player where you can rely on him that way.

18:45Robert Mays:So I can imagine this being maybe a little bit more volatile than the Steelers probably want it to be considering how much they're banking on each of these guys. Well, the final piece of this is the run game and also the offensive line, which, you know, again, we are in lockstep here. This has to be that they have to take a leap forward in this regard. I think it's possible. You know, I talked about the construction of the offensive line earlier bradrick jones has played he's been you know used in different ways i think the hope is with fowtonu coming back after he was injured last season they've solidified the tackle positions the interior is fantastic and they drafted a back and caleb johnson who's like a perfect literally an arthur smith's ideal running back quite frankly am i being pollyannish in thinking this could work or do you feel like there's an optimistic case for it i think it's so tempting to push yourself there because it needs to work.

19:40Robert Mays:And so that's why it's so easy and so tempting to imagine it because it's almost a non-starter for this offense if the line doesn't come together. But I still think there are enough question marks and enough uncertainty that I'm not betting money on it. You have Tanu coming in as essentially a first-year starter. He played one game last year before getting hurt. And then you have Broderick Jones now flipping back over to the left side after going back and forth over the last few years. and you know he had stretches at the end of last season where he was a little bit better but this is someone who has struggled with confidence with the mental side of things and so now you're switching positions for him again and so I just think that there are enough question marks where I'm not willing to say I'm full steam ahead like wheels up this is going to work but if it doesn't then I'm not sure any of this else any of the rest of this matters because it is the most important thing for this offensive line or this offense period 25th in both success rate and epa last year i would say they have to be top 12 for me to feel like this offense can be better than it was at least and that's quite a leap um yeah we'll see uh i mean i really like caleb johnson so uh i think maybe that's my my favorite piece of this puzzle all right defense um okay so this this is a little bit hard to talk about because uh i am not quite sure what role i expect jaylen ramsey to play so let's start there um so minka's out so at the moment the front is awesome we'll talk about the front assuming tj watt is a stealer which i don't know why they any of this is he's not a stealer so i'm i just don't even whatever uh but let's talk about the secondary right now your cornerback room is joy porter jr darius slay jalen ramsey and beanie bishop who's their nickel who's kind of a hilarious player uh and with minka gone your starting safeties wan thornhill deshaun elliott so ramsey is an interesting player because he played primarily outside last year in Miami, but at various points in his career, he has played nickel.

21:54He was the star position with the LA Rams. And he has expressed that he is interested in making the move to safety at some point, which the first time I heard him say, it must've been like a year ago. I was like, yeah, that makes sense. He's one of the best tackling corners in the NFL. He is extremely strong and you can see that he's also really smart. And I feel like he's got a really good awareness of his capabilities. And so how would you play Jalen Ramsey with this group? In this defense, I think I'd play them in the nickel because I think you can get by with

22:26Robert Mays:one Thornhill and Deshaun Elliott, even if you don't feel great about it. And we, I remember we've discussed this a little bit in the past. Like, I just feel like the types of linebackers they have having one more second level spine of the defense defender you feel good about in coverage is important for this team because that's not who their linebackers are. And when you've seen Patrick Queen be at his best, it's been paired with a guy like Roquan Smith. That's not what Peyton Wilson is. Like they've got to run and hit linebackers who aren't at their best moving backward. And so I think adding a strong nickel to that equation, it helps things.

23:00Robert Mays:And so the idea that this collection of guys with Joey Porter Jr. and Darius Slay outside, Jalen Ramsey and the nickel and Deshaun Elliott and one Thornhill at safety is a better collection of players for you right now than Joey Porter Jr. Darius Slay, Beanie Bishop, Minka Fitzpatrick and Deshaun Elliott. I get that if you're the Steelers. I don't know how appreciable the difference is, but them looking at both of those collections of players and saying we're better with the Jalen Ramsey version, I get landing there. I think it makes sense too. I'm not saying, you know, it's just like massive upgrade, But I think when you think about what they want to do on defense and who they need to stop, which I'll get to in a second, this makes more sense.

23:43This is a defense that played amongst their first in single high last season. And Minka was not great in that role. And he hasn't been for a couple years. Now he's going to go to Miami, which is a very different defense. We'll get to that. Also makes sense for Miami, by the way. So there's that piece of it. And then the other piece is this defense has a massive Baltimore Ravens problem. Let's, you know, I, I, I, I sent you this split, but like their run defense when they didn't play the Ravens was one of the best in the NFL. And then when they played the Ravens, they allowed six yards for Gary and 0.11 EPA per play on the ground.

24:21Now every defense has a Ravens problem, but they're in their division. Right. And I'm not saying Jalen Ramsey solves that. I think the biggest issue is linebacker, which I'll get to shortly, but your biggest op is a team that is unbelievably good to run the ball and runs the offense through the tight ends. Bringing in a super physical nickel makes sense in that context. I'm not saying this is entirely about the Walter Ravens. I'm just saying when you think about this team, what they want to do in defense, who they have to stop, it makes more sense to me.

24:52Robert Mays:Yeah, I agree with that. And I also think that part of the problem living in that single high world with the safeties that they had is that dropping Minka back there and just having him be your post safety, you're almost defanging what makes him great. And I think that's part of the reason that you can justify this is that Minka Fitzpatrick at his best is a really, really good player. He's two years younger than Jalen Ramsey, but based on the construction of the defense and the way that they were using him, they weren't getting Minka Fitzpatrick at his best. And so I think bringing in Jalen Ramsey, having him be closer to the ball, having him play a role that we've seen him be great at in the past.

25:26Robert Mays:Again, that's part of the reason I think that you can get yourself there for why this is worth it for the Steelers, even if it's accelerating their timeline even more. This is already one of the oldest defenses in the league last year, and all they've done this offseason, their two biggest moves on defense this offseason, we're signing a 34 year old corner and upgrade and getting two years older with your best spine of the defense coverage player. Well, that brings me back to TJ Watt. I don't want to take this seriously. Like he's, I guess, you know, how could you justify anything else you've done on the roster?

26:04I barely want to even acknowledge the idea that, Oh, teams are called. Of course teams want to trade for TJ Watt. There's zero. The Steelers moving on from TJ Watt makes zero sense. It would, I'm not saying, you know, I'm not a reporter. Maybe it'll happen, but it just makes zero sense. So I'm not going to acknowledge it. at all. I'm just pretending it's not even a thing. Um, the pass rush is obviously still incredible. You had Derek Harmon, who is a prospect you and I both love arguably the best pass rushing defensive tackle in football last year had the most pressures. Uh, they're deep. You get to learn next to cam Hayward, which is awesome.

26:43No concerns there. I'll just say one more thing about the scores defense. Uh, and this kind of connects back to the Ravens thing. I do think the linebacking group needs to take a step forward for this to be an elite one elite unit and two to compete in

26:56Robert Mays:their own division next year it's just a very undisciplined group like when you watch them i think that's the reason they have a ravens problem is that they're like a cat chasing a laser pointer every single time there's any sort of movement and you go back and you watch those ravens games and they're just toying with them todd monken is over the course of those games and so that extends to discipline run defense and again those guys just aren't really comfortable moving backwards and playing in coverage. They're good athletes. They're explosive athletes, but I think you saw how easy it is to manipulate that group and just how little stability they have on the second level of that defense.

27:30Robert Mays:And that's hopefully where Jalen Ramsey comes in at least a little bit. 11th and success rate versus offenses when they didn't use motion 28th, when they did motion at the snap. And to your point, it's really glaring. You watch them and that's not just a Ravens problem during a conference with the chiefs, the bills, you saw this show up time again. So So coaching, I think, is going to be massive here. Let's just wrap this up before we move on to the next team. And I have one question for you about the Steelers. Should they be going all in? Does this make sense to you, the approach that they've taken over the last week?

28:07Robert Mays:Here's the reason I don't have an active problem with it. The issue that I have when some teams are pushing all of the chips in is that it leverages your future in a way that becomes a problem. You start taking away from who you can be the next year or the year after that. Yeah, exactly. I mean, when it's teams trading away real draft capital, the draft capital moved in these deals is a fifth and a seventh swap in 2027. I can't get worked up over that. I just can't get there. Everything else has set them up to pivot pretty smoothly into next offseason if this falls short. They have$86 million in cap space right now without a TJ Watt extension on the books.

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28:47Robert Mays:The only real thing they're doing to leverage their financial future is they'll probably prorate that Jalen Ramsey option bonus over like four or five years, but you'll barely notice that. And so them knowing we have an aging core, we might as well do a couple small things here on the margins to try to get the most out of this year, knowing that we're going to turn the page next year. So with that in mind, and this idea of, I assume right or wrong, that they'll be in a position to trade up and try to draft a quarterback next year, no matter what. But that's why it's harder for me to get super worked up over some of the moves they've made here.

29:21Robert Mays:This feels like a 2025 thing. Let's see what sort of juice we can squeeze out of this, knowing we're going to have to go in a different direction next year. If they use this as a justification to rationalize, well, what if we get a slight uptick from another veteran quarterback for one more year in 2026? That's the potential downside to this. But for the most part, I think that they've insulated themselves enough to be okay next year, no matter how this goes. Yeah. Generally in agreement, I think, you know, anyone who's listening to this can tell we actually don't mind. Like we both like the Johnny Smith addition.

29:55I think we both think there's a case for Jalen Ramsey as well. It's not like a massive needle mover for me in this particular division. And as far as going up to get quarterback, well, they're going to have a hard time competing with the team we're going to talk about next in the draft next year. Let's do the Cleveland Browns next. Like I said, the Ravens fans, I've given you so much Ravens talk that honestly, we should probably do the least on the Ravens just based on the amount of time I've already spent talking about them. You've not gotten much Browns talk. This is a perilous time to be talking about the Browns offense because we have no idea who is playing quarterback for the Cleveland Browns.

30:30Of course, it starts there. It is going to be breathlessly followed all summer come July. at the moment you got, uh, Kenny Pickett, Joe Flacco. I probably should start Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dylan Gabriel, Shador Sanders. Uh, I don't know if we should start with that. I mean, it's so hard to even talk about like, I think that the Browns would argue that the offense is going to have be pretty similar regardless of who's playing. I that I think is interesting, right? Because with a lot of these quarterbacks, you know, we just talked about like Aaron Rogers, like what should the Aaron Rogers Steelers offense be like?

31:07I don't want to say the Browns are quarterback agnostic because God knows that they have changed their offense over the last few years, depending on who is playing. But I do think that everything else they've done this off season and in the draft suggests they have a pretty specific vision for what they want the offense, Kevin, to fancy his offense to look like. And this isn't necessarily going to determine who the best, who's going to get the job or who's going to play the most starts for them. but I almost feel like that vision for the offense is more important than who ends up playing more quarterback for them.

31:41Does that make sense?

31:42Robert Mays:I, yes, because you asked me what the perfect vision for the Steelers offense was. And I said, it was Aaron Rogers throwing the ball 22 times a game. The perfect vision for the Browns offense is whoever plays quarterback, throwing the ball like 14 times a game. Remember those first two games last year for the saints with Derek Carr and Clint Kubiak and how Derek Carr and those two games combined had like seven or eight drop back non-play action pass attempts. That is the vision for what the 2025 Cleveland Browns should look like, no matter who ends up playing quarterback for them. Um, I, I read an interview with Joel Petonio, I think in the athletic where he like talked about the run game.

32:20Cause I would actually, so I was, I read a lot of Browns coverage to try to see if like, Hey, there was any insight into the quarterback situation, you know, any little glimmers of little, uh, clues perhaps. And I didn't learn anything. However, he talked at length in this interview about the run game and what he thought it would look like and how they were going to go back to more of the like Stefanski ball control, run the ball, play action, wide zone with a little bit of power mixed in. This is, he was like, this feels like 20, 20, 21 with outside zone and power are mixed in Joel Batonio talking.

32:59And we will win with ball control. So, you know, always good when you're you got it. You got that pretty strong idea, I suppose, of what it will look like. But you know, a lot of that has to do with players they have. This is it's an interesting offensive line. Interesting insofar as like it's guys who have been in building who have been coming off of either bad years or injuries in a lot of ways um it's a pretty lackluster receiver group judy cedric tillman deontay johnson who uh recently informed the world that he opted not to play in in baltimore ravens game because it was 41 degrees honestly don't judge him for that i i can um david and joe i'm not sure you would do well 41 degrees at this point in your life, uh, Harold fan in, who was a very interesting draft pick at tight end, who's more of like a H back type.

33:51Uh, and then they drafted a bunch of running backs. So in addition to quit Jerome Ford and quinch on, they have quinch on Judkins and Dylan Sampson. So like, I, you know, we know what this offense wants to look like. Um, of the four quarterbacks I mentioned, is there anyone you think is a good fit for that offense?

34:14Robert Mays:I mean, I think that we've seen Joe Flacco play in some version of that offense. And when you go back and you think about the 2023 Browns and what they look like with Joe Flacco compared to what they look like with Deshaun Watson, I do think there's a path for it there. I think the Browns are walking into this, hoping that one of the rookies makes it close enough as part of this competition that they can give that guy a shot, right? Like I think the ideal version for the Browns quarterback room was always going to be something like the 2020 2012 Seahawks looked like where you bring in a free agent of some kind you have you know a third guy in there and then you draft somebody in the middle rounds and you hope that guy wins the job because obviously that's going to give you the highest upside over like a multi-year period so the idea I think always was to go into the draft find a guy in the second or third round put him in a room with Kenny Pickett and Joe Flacco have that guy win the job if it was even close they've complicated that by adding two rookies neither of whom is probably going to get enough reps to forcibly win the job in the way that they would have.

35:11Robert Mays:There was only one guy. So there's just so many layers of complication here. I think I want to see one of the rookies do it just because I find it much, much more interesting than trying to watch 47 year old Joe Flacco limp to the finish line with this sporting cast. Yeah. I don't want to watch that either. Just now. And I don't want to watch Kenny pig. Good. I did. Sorry. Uh, so for me, I, if I'm a Browns fan, I'm rooting for one of the two young guys to get most I think Joe thought I think likely Joe faculty probably starts the season but at some point they make a transition after like a interception game or something.

35:43Um, so about those two young quarterbacks and sort of whether they fit in the type of offense we've been talking about a little bit. Um, you mentioned the 2012 Seahawks. I feel like I've seen Dylan Gabriel comp to Russell Wilson a little bit. I don't know if it was by the Browns or the media. So I really liked Dylan Gabriel. I like I ended up watching him. Obviously, we all did because he was Oregon a fair amount. I think there's a perfectly realistic path to where he actually can. I wouldn't say start in the NFL, but I thought of him as like a maybe in a good situation. He could produce and he could certainly be like a high end back.

36:27That's how I felt about him. He is, I think, pretty accurate. I think he is smart. I think he is. He has one similarity to Russ, which is that despite being very small, he is willing to throw over the middle of the field. Oh, sorry. Not a similar difference. I'm just a difference. But the other difference though, is that Russ was a significantly better athlete in 2012 and had a much better arm. I, my belief. I don't think Gabriel's arm is bad. I actually think it's fine. But Russ's athleticism and his arm strength for years allowed him to compensate for the problems created by his height. And I just don't see that with Gabriel personally.

37:12Robert Mays:It's a worthwhile thing to bring up. When they looked at Dylan Gabriel, the way that I understand it is that they thought the height was the only knock against him. And they were hoping that because of that, if that was the only thing, If it was that he was a little bit short, is he going to go later than he should? Because teams are going to be scared off by that. And so I think there's a lot of fans of Dylan Gabriel's in that building. And I think that if in any other scenario, I think that we would just be talking about Dylan Gabriel winning that job because he has a clear path to it. The Shadour Sanders thing just really complicates all of this.

37:41Robert Mays:And this is sort of my problem with the Browns every once in a while is that when you look at what they do, I think that it's so based on percentages and odds and like, all right, let's just call it quarterbacks. And that's exactly what's exactly right. And I think the Kenny Pickett part of this is similar to that, where you're looking at Kenny Pickett and you say, all right, think about where Kenny Pickett has been his entire life. He was with Matt Canada and Pittsburgh get absolutely no shot. He goes to Philly for a year, doesn't really play. He's never been in even a decent situation for more than a handful or two stopgap starts.

38:16Robert Mays:Like we can get more out of a first round pick than we he's shown it over the course of his career. That's fine. But if these incremental wins on these small bets, I think sometimes you lose sight of the bigger picture. And I think that's kind of what has happened with this whole thing where individually, I can support all the decisions they made to add these people to the room. But when you look at the room overall, I think it becomes a barrier to figuring out the quarterback situation in a positive way. The other thing that complicates is it is Gabriel and Sanders. I think like both make sense in the offense.

38:50So I guess that complicates it. Pardon me. I well, it complicates the quarterback competition aspect of it. But I think like you could argue both of them. This is the right kind of offense for both of those quarterbacks, in my opinion. And they have some similar traits. like they're both accurate pulled this because I was curious. Gabriel and Sanders had the second and fifth highest catchable rate ball rate in football. Now that's skewed a little bit by screens and wide open guys and all of that. But it is what it looked like. Like they're both really accurate. I think they're both tough. I think that they you know, I based on what we saw in college.

39:31You could see either of them winning, I guess is what I'm saying. Uh, the situation though itself, I think is something that we probably have to discuss. Cause like you said, the goal here is obviously to be a run first team. Like Joe, but Tonya said, they're gonna, you know, use a lot of two tight end sets. I don't know how fan is gonna be deployed. it'll be interesting um but it's a pretty shaky group of pass catchers judy you know to his credit in the second half of last season actually ranked third league wide in yards per game despite not like having a crazy dominant target share you remember some of the games with jamis where he just like went crazy but tillman dionte johnson i don't know i don't really i I really don't know who they like, if they're in 12 personnel, who are they?

40:22I really don't know how the rest of the group shakes out.

40:25Robert Mays:I don't mind the combination of Cedric Tillman and Jerry Judy, because I do think they have complimentary skill sets, right? If Jerry Judy is going to be your like vertical kind of slot player where, you know, you can use him as that vertical stretch guy. Tillman is a nice big bodied X receiver who I do think is viable over the middle of the field. The last thing I'll say about the quarterback part of this is that I think I agree with you when it comes to the skill sets. I think that Dylan Gabriel is going to have a pretty big lead going into this on the mental side of things. And I think that that could go a long way, even if when you think about how they throw the ball accuracy, being a strength, they're similar sorts of players.

41:00Robert Mays:I do think Dylan Gabriel has a little bit of a leg up when it comes to how mature he is in his understanding of football, the decision-making all of that. And so I think if it comes down to it, that's why I would give him a little bit of the edge. And if he can just play point guard within this offense, if it's going to be play action heavy. And the other part of it is the screen game. When you think back to when this offense was at its best, and that's kind of what I'm so fascinated in with Harold Fannin as being part of this, like him with the ball in his hands, he's such a weird, funky player.

41:29Robert Mays:And I think we've seen Kevin Stefanski be really successful at deploying these kind of weird, funky tight ends as after the catch players. So I think there's a world where the passing game is kind of strange and they manufacture stuff out of it and it does work to me it comes down to the offensive line and whether they can have a bounce back year then you look at what they've tried to do especially last year you know even two years ago it's a spread offense it's a spread offense the entire time with deshaun watson and they're trying to live in these two different worlds where they're trying to meld the bill callahan kevin stefanski world with the deshaun watson world and it never worked and then last year they move on from bill and they go even well bill moves on from them.

42:07Robert Mays:And they go even further into the Deshaun Watson world where you have a run game. That's a lot more mid zone. And then if you look at the construction of the coaching staff, they actually brought over the assistant offensive line coach from the Eagles to be the assistant offensive line coach last year. And so you have a lot of this like mid zone gun run game. And that's never what the Browns were at their best. Like Joe Batonio said, it was all outside zone and power stuff. And so I think that there's a version of this team where the offensive line performs significantly better this year because you're putting them back in a scheme where they're comfortable, let alone how comfortable the play caller is with it.

42:42Robert Mays:And so if that can be the engine of it, and then you can do the play action screen game stuff off of it. I do think the receivers are good enough to survive in an offense like that. But if you don't have the line in the run game, then none of the rest of this really matters. I mean, what you're describing really does actually sound a lot like the 2012 Seahawks. They're also Wilson rookie season. And like, I, while I, you know, I know I expect some skepticism about the Gabriel Wilson comp. Um, I think the vision, like you're marking that season and the environment and Russ was able to flourish and the way they approached the run game and the, you know, what you saw from the offensive line, you know, Russ was under center.

43:20Like, I think you could see that, like that you could, I think you, you could establish like the building blocks of something, even if maybe you decide to move on to a different quarterback next year, but it all falls apart. If this offensive line plays like they did last year, and obviously they were dealing with injuries, but there were players who did play last year who were not good when they played. So it's just, you not only have to see guys get healthy, you have to see some players return a little bit more to how they looked a couple of years ago. And that's a pretty dicey bet. Um, I like both these backs a lot.

43:56I'll finish by saying that Judkins Sampson, I think we're both really fun picks that have, um, they're very complimentary in terms of like very, very different skillsets that they use on different concepts and different situations. Uh, and yeah, I, the fan, I think I'm excited to watch Tommy Reese, who's their offensive coordinator was the tight ends coach last year. Um, I have to think that I wouldn't be surprised if Fannin is like a slightly bigger part of the offense, maybe than people expect.

44:23Robert Mays:Um, he might have to be based on everything else that they have because of the other receivers uh the defense i'm just going to ask you the question that i posed to dominique where we debated whether or not to put this defense in the top 10 aside from jeremiah so uh it was a korma missing a lot of the season last year what went wrong because this defense went from being one of the best defenses in football to one of the worst statistically how that breaks down the things they were bad at we can get into but just start off because i think we have to talk about what went wrong to talk about whether or not it can go right there are two things I would, I would start with one.

44:58Robert Mays:I think, and this is going to be like, I'm starting to build this point and I'm starting to build. This is like one of my hobby horses that I'm going to hit on a lot this off season. I've come to a conclusion that pressure numbers are fake and we should not believe them. And part of the reason I've come to this conclusion is watching the 2024 Cleveland Browns and then looking at the pressure numbers for the 2024 Cleveland Browns. They led the league in pressure rate, according to next gen stats. And when you watch this team play, they were not affecting the pocket more than any other pass rush in the NFL.

45:27Robert Mays:And so I think that is the number one starting point. When you look at what this team was in 2023 and that wave of guys coming at you, that just wasn't the case last year. Even when Zedarius Smith was there, he was not the same player. And so them not being able to take over games up front. And I think you starting to feel that, I think that's a big part of it. But I think this is another really good case of how, how volatile coverage is and how not sticky it is from season to season. You're going to have those years like they had in 2023, where those guys pitched a shutout for like 17 games. They were so, so good in man coverage.

46:03Robert Mays:And I think the number that really kind of points to this in 2023, when they were the best defense in the league, they had a 61 % defensive success rate without pressure. That's crazy. Like league average is 50. And so the pressure and the front was good, but the coverage was phenomenal, even when they weren't getting pressure. Last year, that number was 51%. So they dropped 10 percentage points and 51 % is essentially league average. And that's about what you would expect. So I think when you combine the lack of teeth up front and them not being able to dictate games that way and the coverage unit going back to human levels of past coverage, combining those two things, plus the worst conversion success rate on offensive downs in the NFL and what that does to a defense.

46:49Robert Mays:Those are kind of the ingredients in the stew here that I think get us where we were with the 2024 Browns defense. Speaker 1 00, that's where I, I, Dominique ended up putting the top 10 and I put them just outside. And my final straw was like, I don't think the offense is going to be good. So I feel like they're just going to be in the same psychological torture chamber that they were all of that. Speaker 1 00, they can't be as bad as they were last year. Speaker 1 00, they're even decent at running the ball and avoiding three and outs as much. It helps back to the pressure thing though. I'm so glad you bought that up because when I was doing the top 10 defenses pot, I was looking at a lot of the pressure numbers and the past rush win numbers and trying to figure out like what felt real and what didn't and I by where I landed with the Browns I didn't get into this was a I don't I want to like change the way I look at pressure numbers to and stats because I think my feeling about them was they were the perfect example of you can't just have one player affecting the quarterback.

47:43Yes. And that one player obviously miles Garrett is going to lift the boat of all your past rush because he's gonna win. Miles Garrett is going to win on a like an hilarious number of snaps. So as a team, you're all gonna get credit for miles Garrett winning, but nobody else is winning. So against, you know, certain offensive lines, certain quarterbacks, you're not able to affect the quarterback as much if you have only one player who wins over and over and over. And I don't know. I have to think through this more how to like, statistically accommodate that. But I do think that Cincinnati Bengals are a great example of that.

48:22Well, as well, of course, we're going to talk about. But I do think it. That was a huge part of just nobody was getting pressure outside of mascara. Nobody on this defense. So I'm looking at the defense right now and I'm looking at the depth chart. And my question for you is Okay, who's all who else is getting pressure this year? Because it's amazing Graham. Who's going to be? Yeah, right. I mean, you took him very high in the draft.

48:48Robert Mays:It better be Mason Graham, considering where they took him in that draft and the fact that they did not trade down again when they probably could have. So I think that it better be Mason Graham. And I think the pressure stuff is it's fascinating because I think we're going to come to a point where we want to use as much data as we can. but I think where this data comes from and thinking about that is really important. Pressure numbers are based on tracking data. And so if you're a defensive end, and if you went on the high side as a rusher and the quarterback steps up in the pocket, but you really didn't affect the play at all, that's a pressure.

49:22Robert Mays:And so I think we're going to see a lot of that and the layers to it. So there's just so many things to consider there, but I agree with you that no one else on that defense is mostly getting pressure. I think that the offense playing better is something that is important though. Like if you look at the numbers from last year, they were, so they were dead last in drive success or drive conversion rate for true media, which is like the percentage of your drives that ended the first down. The gap between them and the Raiders at 31 was bigger than the gap between the Raiders and the Broncos at 19.

49:49Robert Mays:And the other number to me, that's just like, it's impossible to wrap your mind around. Last year, the Browns lost 162 combined EPA on turnovers and sacks. That was the second most for any team in a season since 2000. The only team that was worse than them was the Kevin Walter or the Andrew Walter Raiders. And so even if you're just like normal, bad, and you have all of those players back on defense, I still think that the defense can be pretty good. It's a really important point with the Browns is how much the defense was affected by the offense. And yeah, I think if they can even just be normal, bad, like you said, if they can, if they can run the ball well, I really think that that's going to be kind of, that's going to impact the defense in a massive way.

50:34By the way, while we were talking, I just pulled this up with 2023. So Miles Garrett had 89 pressures. Shocker. It's a zillion. Zaria Smith that year had 61, which is awesome. And last year, no other Browns edge had over, let's see, over 30. The highest was Isaiah McGuire with 29.

50:52Robert Mays:So yeah, I think Z had 27 in the games he played with the Browns. So if you extrapolate that over the course of a whole season, he would end up with like 50 something, but that's still not a lot. And especially when you don't have any complimentary interior rushers, like Dalvin Tomlinson was their best one last year. And he definitely is on the back half of his career. Um, the other thing they need to happen is, uh, Martin Emerson has to find some middle ground between who he was a couple of years ago and who he was last year. He doesn't have to be awesome, but he cannot play the way he did last season.

51:24It's just simple. I

51:26Robert Mays:think it speaks to how, again, how volatile coverage is like, it's just so hard to rely on that. And you have these years where it all clicks. And if you don't take advantage of those years, you're almost inevitably going to take a step backward. And that's just one of those things when it comes to defensive regression that we probably don't talk about enough because there's really no explanation for it. I think we want these things to be prescriptive. Yes. Where it's like, all right, well, why didn't this guy play as well in a year B compared to year A at corner? And there isn't really a causal element to it.

51:57Robert Mays:Sometimes just he didn't play as well. And that's not a satisfactory answer to fans, but that just is how corner goes. Sometimes I would, I also think that with corners, offenses are really good at studying their weaknesses and breaking them down. I think of Sassana. That's it. It's a great point. Perfect example of that as a player where he was at a rookie, he just looked like the best corner in the NFL. And I think defense offenses figured out how to attack him. Obviously running at him was a big thing, but yeah, it's, it's a tough position. to play and be really good. There's awards still amazing.

52:32I still think Greg Newsome, who missed a few games is really good. Um, so I do think they'll bounce back. I do like, like I said, I had them just outside the top 10. Uh, but a lot of it is contingent on the offense, not being historically bad. All right, let's take a quick break and come back and talk about another defense that was very bad last year and whether or not they can be slightly below average. This is the Natty Bengals. We'll talk about their offense. the greats don't shy away from change they attack it head-on with confidence preparation and a clear strategy kpmg llp and their transformation professionals work with organizations across industries using advanced ai to help them move faster work smarter and adapt with purpose because in today's business environment winning teams don't react to change they shape it learn more at visit.kpmg.us slash velocity.

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55:07Robert Mays:That's ethos.com slash sports. application times may vary rates may vary trust pilot rating as of June 1st 2025. All right, so I've been starting with offenses, but I feel like with the Bengals we have to start with the defense because there's not actually that much talk about the offense we can get in the offense. You know, there's some there's some fun wrinkles there but you know, it's Bengals offense. We know it kind of know what it's gonna look like we know it you know, Uh, the defense obviously was the problem last year, 27th and run DV, a 26 versus the past. Interestingly, not as bad an EPA per play.

55:44Cause they had some interceptions, but they were 29th and success rate. They were bad at everything. I, I, you know, I, I don't, we didn't even need to get into it. They were bad at tackling. They were bad against the run. They were bad at getting pressure outside of Trey Hendrickson, all of that. So the biggest change is there's a few interesting personnel changes. Jermaine Pratt is gone. A rookie linebacker, Demetrius Knight is in. Let's pretend to Hendrickson is playing because if he's not, it's not even worth having conversations. They're going to be working awful. Sorry. I mean, right. Can we, we just start there.

56:19We're pretending he's playing.

56:20Robert Mays:Uh, is he the most important defensive player in the league? Yeah. When you think about a hundred? Yes. Myles Garrett's actually not that far behind as I looked at that pass rushing group, but at least miles Garrett has like good players behind him and at some positions. Yes. try Hendrickson you he has so much leverage like what a great case study and how much leverage a single player can have he has leverage in a normal situation yeah right in a norm in a normal situation if you were by far the best player on your defense and your team and i i made a mistake in saying this publicly a few weeks ago where i was talking about this team like wanting to win a super bowl and why that makes the shamar Stewart thing so stupid.

57:05Robert Mays:And people are like, are you sure they want to win a super bowl? So I'm amending this a little bit when you have a team and an offense that is capable of winning a super bowl, you would think that a player in Trey Hendrickson situation would have some leverage, but I don't think you can ascribe normal logic and motivation and thinking to the way that the Cincinnati Bengals operate. Unfortunately, I don't even want to try to break it down. I just I've avoided the shamar Stewart thing. I'm like, just get back to me in a few weeks. I don't want to get into it, but let's talk about this defense as though he is playing because if he is not, it is, you know, code red, like just fricking abandoned all hope.

57:44So the biggest change is the defense coordinator. And that's actually where I want to start with you because I, I, I find it really interesting. So they're, they, they fired Lou and a remote, they hired Al golden from college. Dominique and I, in our, when we were talking about some of the like success, uh, the best defenses in football and then the success of guys like Jesse mentor and Jeff Halfley in green Bay lately, college DCs are doing really well in the NFL. So I think, you know, and, and, and God, Notre Dame's defense was fun to watch. I don't know how much of them you watched in your draft process.

58:22Robert Mays:Very, very little. Okay. really fun to watch really different from what we're going to see in the NFL. They played a preposterous amount of man coverage. Let's start there. Like levels that would be absolutely insane for an NFL because they were incredibly talented. You know, you had multiple guys get drafted. This is not surprising. They've been really, really good for years, but also very creative in terms of like some of the simulated pressures that he was calling and, um, and some of the disguise he was using on the backend. So I guess my question for you is how hopeful are you, if you're a Bengals fan, that this could actually be an upgrade over Anna Rivo, what they've been trying to sell this entire off season and the way that it can be an upgrade.

59:08Robert Mays:Isn't I think about schematics. I don't think it's about like the quality of defensive play call or even, I think the frustration with Lou. And I think some of this is like the messaging that has to happen after you fire a guy who's been really successful for you. It's that he has not been able to develop the young players that they have drafted. And that is the Lou Anarumo problem. I think that's throwing Lou under the bus a little bit for the drafting that has happened. But I do, I do kind of know where they're coming from in this way. When you look at what that defense was at its best, I remember talking to Lou about this, we kind of that year after, I want to say it was a year after they really gave my homes a bunch of trouble in the AFC championship game and they were doing all that funky simulated pressure stuff and just talking to him about how flexible they could be on the back end and the ways that he would teach some of this stuff and I think the and he didn't say it directly but Al Golden was talking about this offseason how he didn't want to be putting stuff in that he was drawing up on a Thursday night and I kind of think that was an indirect shot at what how Lou used to operate but I think there was a lot of all right we're operating at this like master's level on defense where I have all these smart veteran players and that's how we're going to thrive and be successful and when they flipped that and when they started injecting the defense with more youth because they had to get a little bit cheaper on that side i think they failed to carry over that same sort of model and so if you can simplify things a little bit and just make things easier on some of those young players and bring them along at the correct pace and you can get better play from mckinley jackson and bj hill and Dax Hill and all of those young pieces on defense.

1:00:41Robert Mays:That's the argument for me, whether I'm buying it. That's a different question. I don't know if I am. I think that's one of those things that sounds really, really good in April, May and June. And we'll see how it actually looks on the field because I think Lou and Rumo is pretty good at his job. I think if you're a Bengals fan, the optimistic case here is twofold. It's what you're saying, which is we brought in a college coach who's ostensibly, I don't even think it's about like necessarily like simplifying the defense because i don't think last year they were right like you they they simplified it last year but i think it is teaching and developing so you're bringing teaching progression i think is a big part of it are you layering it in the correct way for young players and al golden has talked about that this offseason like i said you look at guys like halfley i mean how good were those packers rookies on defense you look at the charge that wasn't a simple defense they were doing a lot of funky stuff in green bay but i think you can look at all these a lot of the coaches that have come from college in recent years, and they do have a really good track record with younger defenders.

1:01:39So there's hope there. The other thing I would say you can hang your hat, not hang your hat on, but hope for is that some of the players in the secondary have flashed. I think that when I look at this group, um, cam Taylor, Britt Dax Hill, TJ Turner, Jordan battle. It's a very young secondary. They have had moments where some, some cases like Dax Hill. And I would argue Taylor Britt more than moments, you know, stretches where you were like, okay, there's something here. This is not, these are not busts and you know, like the traditional sense where they came in, they never looked good miles Murphy on the other, we don't have to talk about, but the secondary has shown you at least there's something to work with.

1:02:25So whether or not this is why I started by asking about the coach, because I just feel like he is so important to whether or not they They can go from being the 27th to 28th defense to the 19th through 21st defense.

1:02:38Robert Mays:That's usually how it happens is that you bring in the right coordinator and it hits. And Dax Hill, I mean, it's kind of tragic is probably overstating. It's unfortunate that we got five games of him at corner last year. He looked really good when they finally gave him a more solidified role. And then he gets hurt immediately. So I do think it's there. I just worry about the players up front and whether they're going to be good enough. The Shamar Stewart thing, no matter who it was, doing this with a guy that you drafted in the first round is dumb on its own. The guy who is the rawest player that you could have drafted in the first round, not getting every single rep in practice in a season where, again, you justifiably want to win your division and want to win playoff games is very frustrating.

1:03:21Robert Mays:but you even like you dropped your meters night in the second round in theory maybe he's an upgrade over Jermaine Pratt and what he was last year who knows and they really added nothing up front other than Shamar Stewart in the draft like the fact that their big splash in the front seven in free agency was TJ Slayton who I actually like for what they're asking him to do awesome in the playoff game against I like TJ Slayton I've always liked TJ Slayton like three years ago when he was a rookie I was like, oh man, that guy has flashes. He can't do a lot for you, but what he can do, he's good at.

1:03:54Robert Mays:And so that as like one piece of a broader defensive personnel makeover, I think I would have enjoyed. That was the thing that they did in free agency. And so I can totally understand buying into this idea. The young players are going to be better with a coach who is better at coaching young players. I just wish there would have been like a tad more urgency and making sure that players were just better across the board as we head into next season. Yeah, I know. Cause they would say, well, we had to pay, you know, Jamar and T are about to talk about like, there were lower. It's not like we're asking them to go sign Milton Williams, you know, or Josh sweat.

1:04:31There were other players who are like competent NFL play. Jadamon clown. He's still out there by the way. Um, I, yeah, this pass rush is very alarming. the defensive line i i will say jermaine pratt last year looked like he was playing in like rain boots at times so i feel like that will probably be an upgrade but we'll see um okay let's get to the offense uh so you know they were i think i had them fourth and ben had them third in our offensive projections we are very very high on them um you know this is an offense that has been slow to start but is finally going into the season with a normal offseason where everybody's the main guys are all healthy nobody's holding out that should help their slow starts um i kind of joked about how like there's not much to talk about because it's like gonna look pretty similar to how it has but i actually you know that was a little bit flip because it actually has there's been some tweaks since over the last couple of years is there anything they did last season Dan pitcher being the play caller now after Callahan left, is there anything they did that you kind of want to see more of this year or anything that you found like kind of interesting about the bangles offense that we might be excited about?

1:05:50Robert Mays:I just like how blurred the roles are getting among the pass catchers, right? Like it's become, it was a team that when they were a little bit more static offensively, those guys were locked into very defined roles. And I think T is still was a little bit like that. Like T Higgins is what T Higgins is. But if you look at the amount of snaps, the amount of targets, the amount of usage that like a Jamar chase is getting from the slot compared to what it would have looked like a couple of years ago. And even like what Mike is sick is for them. Like he's such a weird player in this offense. And he, I think he was like 18th last year and just targets out of the slot period among all players in the NFL.

1:06:28Robert Mays:So he was essentially just a big slot receiver for them. And it's always funny. Like I do this training camp tour every year where I go visit like 22 teams almost every year. And I just love talking to coaches about, all right, like, what is your plan? What do you want the offense to look like? And hearing Dan pitcher articulate what they were thinking about with that third receiver spot and how between Yoshivas and Gisiki, it was just going to be a rotating cast that made the offense feel different depending on who that guy was. Again, that's something that sounds awesome on August 3rd and you're like, how is this actually going to go?

1:07:03Robert Mays:And that actually is how it went. Like, depending on who was in that spot, the offense felt different. They could do different things with them. And so those layers to just how diverse the passing game feels and how diverse the application of these players feels compared to how solidified that 11 personnel was two or three years ago. I really liked that. And I do think it shows very real evolution from this group that has benefited them in a big way. Yeah, I mean, 29%, 12 personnel last season. Yeah. Two tight ends. That's up from, they put up 10, 12%, which was 27th in the league a year before.

1:07:39So that was a pretty significant evolution. I was really excited by what I saw from Eric All, who was the rookie they drafted, who got hurt. And I think -

1:07:49Robert Mays:I hope he comes back healthy. Yeah, would be a really interesting, because I think he's a big slot, but like, you know, he's, he's more of a receiver than a tight end rather. But I think that gives them the opportunity to be a little bit more multiple do a little bit more in the run game. They were good running the ball with the tight ends on the field. And I think, um, you know, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's not that subtle. It's actually a pretty big jump, but this is an offense that we had kind of thought was like going to look the same way forever. And yeah, there's like little tweaks here and there, the way they weaponized Jamar chase last season, moving him around, playing him from every possible spot.

1:08:27It was a huge part of why he had such a dominant season. And then the quarterback became a better quarterback. I mean, I feel like I didn't even talk about this when I talked about the offense, but I thought Joe Burrow was the best he's ever been. The way he navigated the pocket dealt with pressure, some of the playmaking. He's still really young. So, you know, I think if you're a Bengals fan, you're really excited about the continued evolution of him as a player. And, and I, and I want to emphasize that because I just think with some of these, like we have, you know, the, the big four, as I call them, would, you know, uh, Mahomes, Allen Jackson, bro, we kind of think of them as being, okay.

1:09:06They are who they are, but they're still growing. They're really, really young group. The best four quarterbacks in the NFL are all still young. It's unbelievable. So anyways, I just wanted to mention that as well with Joe burrow. Cause I think like there's a possibility yet that he could unlock another level that we haven't seen.

1:09:19Robert Mays:There's no denying that. And I think that's, what's been so cool about watching those guys over the last couple of years. Mahomes is weird because he threw 50 touchdowns before he was a fully formed player. And so I think that it's been harder to appreciate his evolution and growth because it hasn't necessarily been an evolution and growth and how good he is. He's just been good in a slightly different way with Alan Mahomes and Burrow. I think it's been an evolution and literally how much value they're providing as quarterbacks i think that has been very cool obviously what omar did last year and like what he's done as a passer is absurd like like his it's almost it's not even like timing in the pocket it's just like feel for the pocket and just like understanding yeah when when he wants when he needs to make certain decisions he just feels like so in command of the offense now and with and alan obviously it's the decision making and like what's happening between the ears and with Burr I 100 % agree like watching him navigate the pocket last year and just some of that playmaking gene it was just one of those things where you're just like what is happening like how is he doing this on top of everything else he already does well and that's what's so frustrating about the stupid football team if he wasn't that and they weren't capable of what they did last year I wouldn't care about the stuff that they do poorly but there's just a version of them out there that's like an era defining sort of franchise and them consistently shooting themselves in the foot to not be that is what frustrates me about this team how do you feel about the guard situation that's you talked about them spending more money on defense and some of the free agents they could have gotten my problem with and this is a whole rabbit hole we don't need to go down but if you look at the cap hits for t higgins and jamar chase they're the same as they would have been before signing those extensions that's not how contracts should work in the nfl and cap management should work like in theory there should be 10 to 12 million dollars more in cap space for this team than there was guarantees yeah that money could go to kevin zeitler imagine if kevin zeitler was the right guard on this team for one year and 10 million dollars a million dollars more than he made from the titans and dylan fairchild was playing left guard you had a marius mims coming in as your right tackle in year two, you still had Ted Karras and you still had Orlando Brown.

1:11:36Robert Mays:How much better would you feel right now? If that was Kevin Zeller instead of Lucas Patrick. A lot. It, it was a problem last year. That was one of the many problems covered up by the Joe burrow deodorant and where I think it continues to be a problem is I'm still skeptical of this run game overall. I know chase Brown's better than Zach Moss. I understand that he was able to put up decent yardage, but I still think that the run blocking restricts this team from making defenses respect the run in any ways. And they placed a ton of light boxes. So they faced the fifth most light boxes in football, and surprising.

1:12:15They ran into them just 26 % of the time, which I think was second worst to the Raiders, second lowest. It's so hard to live that way. it's you're asking so much of the passing attack.

1:12:29Robert Mays:I think you can make an optimistic case though, that last year was sort of an outlier when it came to the efficiency of the run game for this team, because their issue on the ground before last season wasn't about being able to run the ball consistently. They could do that. It's that they had absolutely no explosive element on the ground whatsoever. I mean, this is a team that was up. I don't know if there was near the top of the league, but they were consistently like for two straight years in the top 10, like the same, exactly. And that, that, that's what we're talking about. And so I think, and last year, the offensive line was never good, right?

1:13:06Robert Mays:It was never a strength of this team, but there was a stretch where when you had Jonah Williams at right tackle and you had Alex Kappa playing reasonably well before the injury, that it was an acceptable group last year, the wheels came off. Kappa completely bottomed out. that problem at left guard has been a consistent issue for a long time. Marius Mims was a rookie. He was hurt for the beginning of the season. If Dylan Fairchild comes in and is solid, and the right guard is essentially what it's been at left guard for the last couple years, and Mims takes a step forward, I think there's a way for this team to get back to the sort of running game they were a couple years ago, and now you have an explosive back with Chase Brown.

1:13:45Robert Mays:So I think that's the optimistic case to be made, was last year the outlier year, and this team's ability to run the ball at least consistently, even if they're never going to be a team that's going to grind you down on the ground. As you know, managing maintenance, repair, and operations is never easy. But for the ones who always rise to the challenge, Granger has your back. From professional-grade products you can count on to fast, dependable delivery, they're there to help you keep things running smoothly. Plus, their technical product specialists are here to help answer your toughest questions.

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1:15:31That's bull spend. And marketers are calling it out in Dashboard Confessions.

1:15:37Robert Mays:I remember telling my boss, it'll be good for the brand when leads were slow. Yeah, it wasn't. Cut the bowl spend. LinkedIn lets you target by company, job title, and more. Advertise on LinkedIn. Spend$250 on your first campaign and get a$250 credit. Go to linkedin.com slash campaign. Terms and conditions apply. Let's do the Ravens, but let's talk about them in a different way. Because I've spent a lot of time talking about both this offense and this defense over the last two weeks. And why they're so good and why I think I had the Ravens. I'll tell you what. Yeah. The Ravens is the number one offense and I had them as the number three defense, which might seem a little optimistic.

1:16:17I don't know, but it's like, when you look at the second half numbers for the Ravens defense, you're like, all right. And I think they got better. So

1:16:24Robert Mays:they were number one, a defensive success rate in the second half of the season. Yeah. And EPA like, yeah, it was quite the transformation. So my question for you is if you're a Ravens fan, what is the number one thing keeping you up at night right now?

1:16:45Robert Mays:You have to be so nitpicky about it, by the way. Like, so you have to be so nitpicky about it. I would say. And obviously Lamar Jackson getting hurt or something like that. Offensively, there's just not much. I mean, maybe you could say, okay, like what happens at that left guard spot this year? like you know Voorhees obviously McCary was a stabilizing factor for them last year you draft Emery Jones like is that going to be enough do you have enough offensive line depth yeah it's if can you figure those spots out but I think last year they really deserve the benefit of the doubt because there was a lot of panic about that offensive line heading into the season last year and all of it was unfounded it was the best offensive league week one I remember watching the man's cheese and being like oh I don't know about this offense it looks like a real mess and then and he just gelled as the year went on.

1:17:29And by the end, they were excellent.

1:17:30Robert Mays:I think they deserve a lot of benefit out there. So on offense, I don't really have that many concerns. I mean, like, I don't know, maybe you still feel that lack of a ball winning receiver, but I think that Hopkins gives you like an Aguilar plus and a slightly different skill set than you've had in the past with that spot. So I'm not that worried about most elements of the offense. There are two things. Let's go two things I'll point out on defense. I think that my favorite part of the Malachi Starks pick when our Darius Washington was healthy is the flexibility that it provides you on the back end.

1:18:03Robert Mays:They've, I love how this team operates. Like there's their ability to put out fires. And I think think differently and pivot is really interesting. So instead of in order to combat that, they go out and get Jair Alexander. And so now your hope is we're taking two bites at the apple at the other outside corner spot. So if Chido B or Jair hits, and we have that spot lockdown with Nate Wiggins. We can just play Marlon Humphrey in the slot all the time and not worry about it. So I think that they'll probably be okay even with the Ardarius Washington thing, but they have way less flexibility because now you're in a spot where the makeup of your roster almost necessitates you play Kyle Hamilton at safety full time.

1:18:43Robert Mays:And I think that takes away from the defense to an extent, but that's again, nitpicking. And the other spot I would say is that other inside linebacker spot, because when you got deeper into the season last year, I think you felt the fact that Trenton Simpson never really materialized for them. Emily Harrison is a really limited player. And so if Trenton Simpson, again, fails to kind of come into his own, if you, the Teddy Buchanan, who they drafted in the fourth round, if that continues to be an issue and teams can pick on that, we saw their lack of an answer at that spot in the playoff game against the bills last year, when the bills just ran it down their throat.

1:19:18Robert Mays:So I think those are probably the two spots I would say, because I believe in Mike Green's ability to help the pass rush in the way that they need. And so I think if those are the two issues you're most worried about heading into a season, you're probably feeling pretty good about that side of the ball. So my, mine is pretty aligned with yours because I think the thing about the offense too, is they're just so deep. I mean, the, like, you know, like people forget that Z flowers didn't play in the playoff game at the end of the year, right? Like they're number one wide receiver didn't play. and yeah it's just they're very deep very multiple obviously the quarterback is you know unbelievable um defensively I'm looking at the loss of Michael Pierce and a potential decline in the play of Roquan Smith that would be the thing and it absolutely connects to what you saw in the playoffs against Buffalo they didn't really replace Michael Pierce in, in a way that I feel great about, uh, Travis Jones is a player I really like.

1:20:24I like him a lot as a pass rusher, you know, I, I, I, and then Roquan, you, you already said it about Trent Simpson. Roquan had some tough games last year. Now I think he kind of quietly turned things around and I think there's a litany of reasons for that, but, and some of it has to do with what was going on behind him as well. but I do worry, you know, he's getting older. What if the linebacker group of this team is no longer a strength? What if, because so much of what they do on defense structurally with their pressures is contingent on having, it's not just linebacker, it's the spine. And I, I've Kyle Hamilton.

1:21:06And I talked about this last year, like everything they do is built around the idea of having a dominant spine. What happens if the front end of that is no longer dominant? I still think they're going to be great. I had them as a third best defense. I'm just saying, what is the thing you're slightly worried about?

1:21:21Robert Mays:It's a great thing to bring up. I think that's exactly right. And you have the linebacker question and you have the run defense in the middle of the defense question and not replacing a guy like Michael Pierce. You think, all right, how important is that? But they don't really have Travis Jones is a big body, but that's not really how he's affecting the game. I think him as a pass rusher is more intriguing and a little bit more impactful than what he's doing as run defender at this point in his career. And John Jenkins, I think, had some decent stretches for the Raiders over the last couple of years.

1:21:49Robert Mays:Actually, this is like a very weird thing, but I kind of enjoyed the John Jenkins, Adam Butler combination for the Raiders over the last couple of seasons, but he's 34 years old at this point. And so I think them not being a little bit more aggressive in trying to add to some depth there may come back to bite them. but again, we're really nitpicking here. If Roquan Smith plays at the level that he's capable of playing at, I think all of this stuff starts to matter just a little bit less. He's older. He's 28. He's not, you know, he's still under 30 linebackers still play at a high level at that age.

1:22:22I, um, and I, and I really did think like there was a point and I don't remember what game it was, but there was a point in the beginning of the season where I was like, should we be working at Roquan? I don't know if you felt the same way. And then it kind of went away and you just forgot about it and he started doing more work on things as the year went on. So not worried. I also like, I, you know, this is your two Zach or right. He thrown into the fire with great expectations last year, made a tremendous mid season change that I'm sure your show, my show every show has talked about. Um, they've added the, I think Chuck Pagano was hired as the part of the defensive coaching staff, which is interesting.

1:22:58This coaching staff is tremendous. I mean, we, on the offense pod, I think I spent like, way too long talking about how much Todd Munkin was in his bag last season. And he's back like the continuity that they have, the talent that they show, the creativity on both sides of the ball is just outrageous. Coaching wise.

1:23:19Robert Mays:I think John does a better job managing his staff over a long period of time than any coach in the NFL over the past like decade, because Dan Campbell's done a really good job of it so far, but Dan Campbell's never had to replace coordinators yet. I mean, this is the first test we're going to get. And I always made this comparison where I think that these kind of CEO type coaches who have been longstanding coaches, inevitably, you're going to have to make these sorts of tweaks because guys get hired away or because things are starting to get stale. And I think John has done a really, really good job at it in a way that Pete struggled with in Seattle.

1:23:55Robert Mays:I think Pete tried to make those same sorts of changes and he was never able to hit them. And if you look at the feel that John Harbaugh has had for how to figure out the right coordinators for the right players on his team time and time again, even like going to Greg Roman when he did in 2019 and understanding that was the right choice at the time. And then understanding when it was time to move on from Todd Monken because they needed to take that step forward. Understanding even if they had a lot of success with Wink, all right, this has run its course. Like we're not going to be able to thrive playing the style of defense anymore.

1:24:29Robert Mays:How do we take the next step? He's just done a phenomenal job doing that. And that's what a head coach in his sort of role. That's not calling the offense of the defense has to be really good at. The roster is just also so well constructed in that it's like such a nice blend of proven players and young players who have started to break out, who are probably going to like are likely to hit their primes. Two guys who I would single on each side of the ball, Nate Wiggins on defense and Isaiah likely on offense. I think both of those dudes can be absolute stars and both have shown it. And, you know, again, when we think about why this team is so good, like I, yeah, yes, we can say, well, you know, on defense, Marlon Humphries getting up in the years, he was amazing last year, of course, in the slot offensively.

1:25:18It's like, oh, well, Mark Andrews is also getting a little older. Yeah. But they have incredible youth at both of those positions. So like, Like I just feel like, you know, when we're picking Knicks on a team like this, you're really to go back to like, you're looking at older players and saying, can they continue playing? And I think with the Ravens at the high level, the answer is like, even if they fall off a little bit, there's reinforcements at every position except linebacker. I really, that's the one where I'm like, oh, that, which is why I brought it up. Um, the, the one thing I'll be, and you know, like, I know this has been a little bit more 30 ,000 foot than what we've been talking about with the other teams.

1:26:00I think that if I'm like the thing that actually, in addition to what I talked about, maybe keeps me up at night is just winning the preseason year after year, getting so close. And then losing in ways that can't easily be explained or address has the potential to wear on you psychologically as an organization um i interviewed marlon humphrey about this that's going to come out in a couple weeks and he was so insightful about like you know we can say oh they don't really care he was like he talked about how devastating it was because they knew how good they were and how it took him so long to get over it it's a you know it's really really interesting to hear him talk about that.

1:26:45That's hard, man. Like this was the best team in football at various points. And I know Eagles fans, you, by the end of the season, you're the better team, but it's really hard to get over that every year and to come back and say, this is our year.

1:26:59Robert Mays:There's no doubt. And I think there was a stretch two years ago where you could argue they were the best team in the week. I mean, just think about what they did to the Niners on Christmas two seasons ago when we thought that Niners team was just cruising, you know, to potentially win the the Super Bowl, but at least this is gonna be the best football game of all time. And then the Ravens just curb stomped them. Oh, we talked about this on our show this week, just about was about Lamar specifically, but also about Josh Allen, just what this has to be like, you know, how you continue to figure out like where that motivation is gonna come from.

1:27:29Robert Mays:And even beyond the motivation, it's like, at what point do the first 18, 19 games of the season just cease to matter to you? Like it doesn't matter how they go because if the ending is still the same as it's been the last couple of years, it's all for naught anyway. And like, it's a weird nihilistic way to think about a game and a job that's really hard to come to and do well every single day. So I think it's inevitable. It's just human nature. It's going to wear on you. I think where it matters for the Ravens and how you make it feel like it matters. It's funny because we always have like the chiefs using the regular season to experiment and, you know, not getting deterred by like the offense being slow at times.

1:28:06I think for the Ravens, you have to re like account for the fact that last season, you basically lost the number one seed because your defense was poorly constructed the first half of the season and you missed a bunch of fricking game winning field goals. So I mean, that's like, I, again, talking about Nick nitpicking, let's go on the other way. I hopefully if they have a kicker now who doesn't miss a bunch of like incredibly you have the potential to, you know, like not lose in stupid ways. So it's, I think this is the first time I've talked about kicking or special teams this off season, but that's a big deal.

1:28:49They just a Tucker single-handedly lost them games last year, Robert. Like we never talk about special teams because it's boring to talk about and we don't reckon to analyze it but like he was he was guilty of that and other things well the problem the kicker

1:29:06Robert Mays:that they drafted this year has missed like a bunch of kicks in otas so it seems like the kicking competition is going to be more of a story than it should be i the last thing i'll say about this is my my zag take is that it was a good thing for the raven's fans are still pissed about it like there were people in my mentions this week talking about how lamar or the josh allen mvp was a pity MVP, whatever. But my, my zag take is that it's actually a good thing for the Ravens that Lamar did not win the MVP because now you can do this like weird twisted thing where he feels slightly. If he had one, two in a row, is it actually a bad thing for the Ravens super bowl chances?

1:29:41Robert Mays:I'm sticking with that. I, we do an awards pod every layer and I feel like Lamar MVPs. Cause he didn't get it last year is a great bet for i don't know what the odds are i don't look to them for next year because so much of it is narrative driven but yeah i love that i love that zag about the the ravens being extra motivated because they were spurned and because they lost to the bills so there there is legitimate week one man who buddy week one crazy are they playing each other in week one yes oh man learn this about me i don't know when any of the games are happening yes they are me that any game what's happening at any point.

1:30:21The only reason I know this is because I just had to look at the schedule because NFL live is onsite for every, pretty much every Monday night game. And week one is Chicago for us, which is such a gift to go to Chicago in September and not in November, December. So you're welcome guys. Um, but yeah, I was looking at the week one schedule and I was like Ravens bills that I did like a, like a slow wolf whistle, like all the narratives, all the, all of it. It's going to be amazing. So it's Sunday night football, which is crazy.

1:30:48Robert Mays:Sunday night football okay good because I I knew that that I because I wasn't sure if there were those two Monday Monday games in week one and if it was one of those Monday games I was going to be bummed because I think I'm going to go to Bears Vikings in week one I think I think I'm going to go to the game my wife has never been to an NFL game before it's going to be September instead of December and in week one the season isn't over like I won't have lost my will to live and it's easier to go puts up 40 points as long as the offense scores 35 and that sort of loss I think I'll be okay with it all right uh well you know it's only the Vikings defense anyways uh okay final note on this I always do rank the teams I feel like this division is not particularly divisive it's very two halves well I guess not really because the Steelers did come close to Um, but Ravens, bangles, Steelers, Browns, I imagine you're aligned.

1:31:47Robert Mays:Mine's the same way. I just think that offense is sticky. We know that. Right. And I think the bangles offense, what they did last year, like it's going to be weirdly lost to history. Like how good that passing game was all of last season. And so them even coming close to that this year, if the defense can not actively be like the, one of the three worst defenses in the league, I do believe that they have the makings of at least a wildcard team. All right. That's it for this week. Uh, thank you again, Robert for joining us. Go check out the athletic football show. It is excellent. Um, I'm going to be doing continuing this twice a week cadence now that we're in July with the power hours.

1:32:22I think I have special pod with Dan or Lasky coming out soon, maybe on Monday. Um, and we're going to do another division next week. So yeah. Thank you also as always to the folks at Omaha productions, Kirsten specky, Anthony Jimenez, Owen sailor, Jack foster, Tucker Tashin. If you were listening to this scenario. You can also check it out youtube.com slash at me at times where I have interviews with players that I've been posting. The Marlon one will be coming out soon. Also, if you're watching love Island, check out my love Island recap pod with David Dennis Jr. Viewer discretion. We are in peak love Island season right now.

1:33:10Robert Mays:This episode is brought to you by State Farm. No two football players are exactly alike, and the same is true off the field. That's why State Farm gets to know you so they can help personalize coverage for your life and budget. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

From the publisher

In this episode, Mina Kimes is joined by Robert Mays to break down the always-tough AFC North. They go team by team, looking at strengths, weaknesses, and what to expect on both sides of the ball. What will the Steelers offense look with Aaron Rodgers? Who will the Browns QB be? Can Joe Burrow unlock ANOTHER level? And can the Ravens finally find success in the playoffs? Finally, they wrap things up by ranking the division and sharing their picks for how the season might play out.

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