Talk Purdy to Me: A Divisional Round Preview

30:37Can we take a moment for the Seahawks defenses of yore who were tormented for so many years by Cal Shanna Hinnom play action? All the linebackers of years past who were chasing ghosts for minutes on end. The safeties who were looking at the entirely wrong part of the field as Debo Samuel ran past them for 70 yard touchdowns. It's really been fixed after all these years. It is so crazy to watch a Seahawks defense completely own this offense. Because people, yeah, like, this was the worst, I would argue, I mean, 223 there, 28th in DVOA, they were so bad against play action, man. And so to go back and watch those reps, it's like stunning.

31:26And then they're so good against the motions on the ground because most of the Niners run game is very centered on using motion to try to get favorable angles. Just not, just so disciplined in terms of staying in their gaps, communicating, bumping guys over. They're just, I was just watching them and I was like, everybody, they would, they played a lot of five-man fronts on early downs against San Francisco and the edges were just like brick walls against this run game. I mean, let me ask you, if you were Kyle Shanahan and you were hoping to desperately find some kind of solution to move the ball.

32:05You're not going to score 30 points in this game. But if you think, okay, we can get to 17, we can win this game. How are you getting to 17 points on offense in this game?

32:18I don't think it's running the ball.

32:24Peerstol's probably playing in this, right? It seems like he's missed last week. is he going to leave in the second quarter um you know like i i just at this point it feels like anything from pure salt is a bonus yeah um speaking of old guys who are suddenly playing well demarcus robinson is on the brandon cooks club of like suddenly he's a team pack player in the postseason yeah bill i don't really know honestly i was trying to find like i did this for the texans we're gonna get to i was trying to find like the weaknesses and i really struggled um i there's been games where there's been issues in the secondary and lapses but a lot of those were injury related um i think emin worry is really you know he was amazing i think you can get him on intermediate throws and yeah so that might be something i would try especially if he's very nosy against the run um but yeah this is maybe like mcafree choice routes like maybe trying to isolate the linebackers in coverage like not that they're bad in coverage but just mcafree such a beast there so maybe like a lot of vertical routes then trying to get mcafree isolated against some of the other players underneath like he can run away from him and worry because he can run away from anybody uh in space but the only way it works to me and this is cheating but it's true and the only way i think the the niners have a chance in this game is if the quarterback on the other side of the field throws them three short fields which i'm not saying it's going to happen but like it's not out of the realm of possibility that happens either all right so let's flip it because i mentioned that brock perry had as low as averaged up the target sam darnold had his second low he averaged only 5.2 air yards per attempt um he had a second longest time to throw of the season which all five five his five longest times to throws have all come after week 10.

34:21So, you know, I've talked a lot on this pod about Darnold's struggles down the stretch. It seems to me, though, Bill, that he is very determined not to throw, to turn over the football. I think he got spooked by the multiple turnover games. He tried, by the way, the last time these teams played, going back and watching. But I have to think they're going to have a very similar game plan to what they did the last time these teams played uh very run heavy lots of 21 personnel they put their fullback robbie ooze on the field and they ran the ball really great out of they actually hit a couple of they're like only two explosives it was like a play action crosser to jsn and a dig to jsn also out of 21 personnel and they got their niners to play base defense but but in 21 personnel they averaged six yards a carry and had a 55 success rate feel like that's just going to be they're just going to copy paste.

35:17Yeah. I mean, if you're the Niners, like you can't allow explosives on the ground. You're doomed. And the Seahawks did hit more explosives on the ground in the second half of the season. Like that was kind of the thing that did propel their run game forward. They were to me unlucky in the first half of the year, especially given the dudes they can have. Like, yeah. Like seeing Kenneth Walker not being able to hit a 20 yard run for most of the year just makes no sense. Like I could, you know, it's like watching some of the Saquon Giants here. It's just like my brain doesn't work. Like you're fast.

35:45You should be hitting a 50-yarder. And they did. Charbonnet hit a bunch of them in that game. That should be in there, especially with the Niners, whether we don't know where Port Warner's playing or not. But the Niners linebackers are fourth stringers at this point. So they should be able to outgap them, outpace them. And then if they get the second level, run past those Niners linebackers. But so in the first half of the first half of the second Rams game, Sam Darnold averaged 0.8 air yards per throw. Like it feels like in in these big games, they're trying to just, yeah, they're trying to hide him.

36:23Get the ball quick. Yeah. Yeah. And like if you run the ball effectively, you don't need to put Sam exposed. But it feels like if they do slow down the run in this game and having Fred Warner back theoretically would help that. And Sam does have to drop back on third and long. That's where it gets concerning to me. But if you're a Seahawks fan, I have some good news for you. The Rams got a couple picks in that second game with disguised coverages. They love spinning their safeties post-snap. Love having a kind of murky post-snap assignments. And that led to a couple picks. the Niners are last in the NFL by a significant margin in their disguised coverage rate they are very straightforward what they run and given that they're down to backups in so many places I don't think they're suddenly going to get super creative and rely on everyone to not blow assignments by disguising stuff again in this matchup so I think that makes it easier for Sam to avoid mistakes and I think that is going to be what this comes down to for the Seahawks on offense Yeah, the struggles of the Seahawks offense the second half of the season had a lot to do with teams just basically like daring them to run the ball, no longer playing single high, no longer putting big bodies on the field.

37:36But the Niners just can't afford to do that. Like they played a lot of single high in this game. They sold out to stop the run. So they didn't sell it to stop the run, pardon me, but like they weren't playing, you know, just sitting back. And I think as long as Seattle can run the ball with some decent efficiency, and the first game suggests that they can, that protects the passing game to a large extent. And the run game, I want to say this about Seattle, while the passing game has absolutely gone downhill in the second half of the season, the run game has ticked up and up and up. And it really reflects, this is how defenses play them.

38:15Weeks 1 through 9, they were 26th in success rate and 29th in EPA per play running the ball. Weeks 10 through 18, 17th in success rate and 11th in EPA per play. So they're not like the best, but they've hit on explosives. They've been able to punish teams that play them light. And unless Fred Warner comes back and looks like Fred Warner, Bill, this Niners run defense, I understand we just saw Philadelphia. really struggle against them. But I find it hard to believe that Seattle's going to be significantly worse on the ground this time around. Yeah, unfortunately, the Eagles runoff and struggled against everybody this season, especially when they had a lead in the second half.

38:58One of the other ways, Niners might be able to pull an upset. Usually special teams, they have an advantage. We saw them beat the Rams special teams, but the Seahawks special teams, just as good. Number one and number three in special teams win probability. so it just feels like there's so many paths for the Seahawks to win and so few for the Niners to win and I'm not saying it's impossible like again if they get you know a Kenneth Walker fumble if they get if they don't allow a run over 12 yards if they get two sand picks like yes they could turn three short fields and 21 points and win this game but that's it that feels like the only way they can do it yeah I'm paying the Seahawks here me too you do okay yeah all right well the next two games are both three three and a half point lines so we'll see uh take a break quick break come back texans patriots if you're looking to bring a little celebration to the everyday confetti craze five-hour energy tastes just like birthday cake think rich vanilla buttery funfetti flavor basically a party in a bottle and here's what makes it even better it's all the delicious cake flavor you're craving with none of the sugar to worry about.

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41:16For licenses, see homedepot.com slash license numbers. All right, we're back. Texans, Patriots. Mmm. I went on Eric Wood's podcast and he asked me who impressed me the most in wildcard weekend. And I said, well, the Niners impressed me the most given the injuries. But I think the Texans defense was the single most dominant unit of any team. Right? Like just jarring. Terrifying. Dominique and I have talked about how we like kind of want a Texan Seahawks Super Bowl just for the like just the filth of it. um so let's start there let's start the texas defense very scary against the patriots offense and i'm going to start by asking you i guess i could have asked this about seattle you asked me is there a weakness is there anything like when you watch this texas defense and we just saw them you know pile drive aaron rogers into cancun can you be piled driven permanent cancun life cancun the great cancun in the sky um i have some thoughts i think one of them i know you're gonna hit too is there anything that jumps to mind in terms of like things that they can do scrambles yes that's the first on your list 9.2 yards per scramble most of any team in the nfl and like that's a product of them being really good at matching to routes and managing route distributions really well and sticking to receivers and having linebackers who want to take your quarterback's head off and who occasionally get a little too excited when they try to do that.

42:56And so, like, you're not going to win the game with eight scrambles. Like, this is not going to be September Patrick Mahomes scramble remote for Drake May. But, like, can that pick you up a couple of third and longs? That would be great if you can get that for the Patriots. You can attack them downfield. and I think that's for the Patriots like the most plausible way they score in this game is like hitting a 40 yard completion every quarter or every you know hitting three of them in the game and again like that's a product of having cornerbacks you really trust they trust they trust their extended they trust Kamari Lassie but they trust Jalen Petrie and like getting runaways for those guys stretching those guys vertically maybe you get a completion maybe you get a PI like they will commit PI like they will happily try to compete with your receivers for the ball.

43:48Patriots have been so good in the most contested catch this year on throws downfield. That feels like the most likely scenario. But these aren't things where it's like, oh, consistently every single series, they can go to X or go to Y, and that's going to be their getting thing. I have one thing that I'm going to throw at you. Those are two of the three things that I wrote down. The scrambling thing is the most obvious thing. And with the Texas defense, that's been a feature for... It's not a... it's just, it's structural as you alluded to, but like, you remember Lamar running rough shot on like, it's just it.

44:20Drake may is a very good Drake. May was had a bunch of huge scrambles against the chargers who in a similar way are vulnerable to QB runs, but he's going to have to use his legs just full, full, full stop. The Texans past defense chokes you out. You cannot beat them by showing short. I think the, the Pittsburgh Steelers put that on display. They're still good against deep passes, but teams have been able to hit on some deep balls. And so Drake, Kay, Kayshawn Booty, it's going to have to happen a few times in this game. The other thing that I threw in here, can you guess based on what I teased earlier?

45:00The sixth offensive line. Oh, I was saving it for the Texans side of things. I wrote for both teams. From this point on, I think I have sixth offensive line. know um this game i actually wrote this is a 6-0-0 game because both of these teams will need to do that so with houston there's a few reasons um i thought the patriots offensive line performance in the wild card round was really concerning the way that the chargers were able to attack the left side and here comes will anderson jr and janeel hunter um yes so uh the the patriots were able to get to like a couple of their deep balls out of I think they're both of their deepest throws um were out of six offensive line they put fair munford on the field um and I feel like versus houston they're going to counter that with their base defense they're still very good so shots which we alluded to are part of that because they hit on shots out of that but I also think if you can get ej speed or is there a third line this is how stacked texans defense is I'm like try to get their third linebacker on the field but that would be the weakness that i wonder so it's not just deep balls i think there would be some lineback like some check down screen opportunities against the linebacker group out of those looks as well yeah like that's that's it i mean like that that is the totally viable totally reasonable thing to do but like again like is that going to lead to the patriots averaging five yards per carry and being in third and short every single series?

46:33No. There's so few ways to do this that I think you have to be willing to be explosive. I don't think you can manage this game the way the Steelers tried to do it and survive. You cannot march down the field with a 10-play drive. We talked about the Bills and Broncos, where Broncos' defense was very good last year, but the Bills were able to consistently get to third and short and move the ball. And that is just so hard to do against the Texans because they're going to sack you, they're going to get a TFL, they're going to make you commit a penalty, and then just in third and long, they are an absolute nightmare.

47:09They get all their twists going, they can run some sim pressures, they can move guys around. Danico Autry is a turn, and I feel like he's against Jared Wilson in his match. Yeah, it's really good. Yeah, I mean, there's just... When I would watch them every week, I'd watch them on tape and I would watch all the sacks, I'd watch all the pressures and be like, I'd have a new guy every week I was like, man, I did not know that guy was that good. And every week a different person would pop up. And that's very scary for the Patriots where it's true that their line is so much improved versus what it was last year.

47:42But Will Campbell has been below average pass protector. Derek Wilson's been a below average pass protector. Those guys both better as run blockers this season to me. And if I can see it, I know D 'Amico Ryans can see it. So I think you're going to see them deal with a lot of twists, a lot of games. And then the Will Anderson speed rush, the Neil Hunter speed rush that we saw last week. Drake may twice turn the ball over, I believe, in place where he held the ball for a hit or two too long. Guy's got it in his face. Strip sacked him. You cannot do that and survive against the Texans. Yeah. Stevenson as a pass catcher, I think, needs to be part of this.

48:21For sure. The running back. Yeah. It's it's funny because you asked me with the texans or the seahawks pardon me i honestly don't know which of these defenses is easier to game plan for they both seem absolutely impossible right now um okay so other side of the ball is is patriots fans if you're like wow that didn't that sounded grim um i think i have better news for you on the other side of the ball because this texans offense really tried to give the game it was a weird performance because they actually cj hit on some like dimes but then he also committed some just disastrous bubbles it it it felt like they did the classic how do the Steelers win this game script yes yeah I posted that during the game I was like I've seen Mike Tomlin win this game yes that's why Mike Tomlin quit he was like we can't win this game I'm screwed I gotta go um but the Texans defense was so dominant that they drag them out of that game.

49:18One thing we should mention before hitting, I think, on this side of the football is the injury situation because this is huge and changes how both these teams might approach this game. So Christian Gonzalez and Nico Collins both in concussion protocol. As we record this, it looks like Christian Gonzalez closer to passing through than Collins. Christian Gonzalez is back in practice in an uncontacted jersey. Nico Collins has not been seen so far this week so obviously you don't need me to give you the numbers but like i can give you the numbers cj stroud 81.7 qbr this year throwing to nico collins 57.9 throwing to anybody else like it is a massive drop off if they don't have nico collins in this game they do have their own christian and his name is christian that would be mr kirk uh who we talked about guys turning back the clock went nuclear yes uh they found the matchup against brandon echols and just spammed it um i also think especially if gonzalez plays that's something you're going to want to hit you want to go after marcus jones who's a who's a fine nickel he's not christian gonzalez and carlton davis and so i think especially if collins doesn't play you're going to kind of need another turn back the clock performance like you're going to need it it's not just like oh that's crazy that that happens it would actually have like i don't see them having success unless he has another big game so let's say collins doesn't play in this game and gonzalez does because right now to me that seems like the most likely scenario then again i also said lane johnson was going to play last week and trent williams wasn't and made my prediction based on that and um oops uh but let's say that happens the patriots this year all all summer i talked about this with you on tv i know we talked about it separately it looked like the patriots are going to be a really man heavy defense because you have Christian Gonzalez, who was great in man the last couple years.

51:14They signed Carlton Davis, who was a man-heavy corner in Tampa and Detroit. And then they played man at the 23rd highest rate of anybody in football. They were not a man-heavy team this year whatsoever. And I sort of wonder, do they have that changeup in them? Could they play man 50 % of the time in a game? And if there was ever a spot where it felt like it would call for it, would it not be texans receivers without nico collins i think they will i think they're going to blitz too um they they had a lot of success blitzing herbert it was kind of interesting though looking back the four-man rush for new england according to ngs had an 18 pressure rate against the chargers a lot of those sacks were actually coverage sacks or the pressures and hits they got um to me like yeah the the patriot even with milton williams back and he was very good the pass rush isn't dominant uh and so you're going i've mentioned forrest rousman much better he's been good against the blitz this year but i feel like with no collins you are much more comfortable sending pressure um i think houston if houston runs the ball though the way they did against pittsburgh and this is an interesting one right because it's like the houston run game game has been bad all year but it's kind of ticked up lately and is coming off of one of their best games a lot of six offensive line the patriots run defense was awful but then they started ticking up and against the chargers they had a phenomenal game and they've gotten guys back you know spillane as well williams yeah williams so it's kind of like uh all right who are you what you over the course of the season?

53:02Or are both of these, which of these sides is actually improved coming into this? I believe the Patriots run defense more than the Texans run game because the players are back. Nothing changed. Like you just played the Steelers whose run defense is secretly pretty bad. Like Woody Marks and Nick Chubb suddenly didn't become really great running backs overnight. And when the Texans use 6-0, which they do more than anybody else in football, like they're not an efficient run game. They average 3.2 yards per carry when they use six offensive linemen. To me, that is a and they're going to run the ball to set up play action and set up the passing game of course in those groupings but like that's a can we get shots downfield because they average more than 10 yards per attempt throwing the football out of 6-0-0 that is like a can our pretty bad tackles can our scary interior offensive linemen hold up long enough with an extra dude just so we can get you know nico on a deep over we can get hutchinson on a deep post like can we get guys open downfield with that extra offensive lineman and so that's what that feels like to me as a weapon i don't think the texans like it's always possible but like even if they're good by texas centers in this game that's like 3.8 yards per carry like it's just not horrifically bad and yeah the numbers went up because they hit on explosives the success rate was still awful from you know right 30th and success rate since week 10 but then they jumped to 13th in the ap game or play so they were able to hit on a few explosive runs but yeah I'm with you I think the Patriots run defense a lot of the struggles were injuries they didn't have Tonga I think so in that game too I think he's gonna play this week so right another thing is like you want to run well in the red zone and the Texans are 31st in success rate in the red zone and that is the way teams have beaten the Patriots this year is winning in the red zone.

54:54The Patriots, the worst red zone defense in all of football. Unfortunately, the Texans, because they can't run the ball, are, I believe, the third worst red zone offense in football in terms of turning points into touchdowns. Now, they're going to get like three chances or four chances in this game. A lot can happen in a three or four drive sample. If they score three touchdowns on those drives, they could probably win this game. But I just don't think they're going to be in position to score touchdowns very often in those spots. And unfortunately, now that Mike Tomlin is retired, D 'Amico Ryans has inherited the guy who is desperately committed to playing 2003

55:40fourth down decisions in the red zone, which is not going to help the Texans in this game at all. Man, I went into this leaning Texans. Yeah. But then, because I was like, I believe in this Texans defense so much, and I'm having so much trouble finding ways to move the ball. But the Nico Collins injury makes me very concerned about picking. I also don't see a clear path for their offense. I think this is going to be a very low-scoring game. Something else. One thing I want to mention before you make your decision. Okay. weather is going to be a factor potentially in this game. According to the weather report I saw, 2.4 inches of snow expected on Sunday in New England.

56:28Rain, snow potentially during the game. And I will say, like we would imagine that's going to impact CJ Stroud because he plays in a dome. When Drake May played earlier this year in Tampa in the rain, he looked awful. The weather got much better as the game wore on and he was great from that point forward but he was a mess early in that game missing throws in the rain so this could be like a real slop fest if uh we get some bad weather and both these teams can't throw the ball well i'm gonna stick with my initial gut wow the texans defense they're just so good i also think stroud is a streaky quarterback and i think it was like i said like the last game was like such a bizarre because he really did some impressive things in addition to are you on new england yeah i feel like i don't want to make the same picks as you and i feel like we do think so similarly that i usually have the same pick as you but this is going to be the one where we separate i think i mean i do like rabel if it comes down to like weird coaching stuff weird coaching stuff weird okay I'm sticking I do feel like was it the Patriots last week who were taking advantage of the subs where they were like slowly working their guys on the field the Chargers yeah I mean I like that

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58:37Try it today at Starbucks.

58:42So good, so good, so good. Spring styles are at Nordstrom Rack stores now, and they're up to 60 % off. Stock up and save on Rag & Bone, Madewell, Vince, All Saints, and more of your favorites. How did I not know Rack has Adidas? Why do we rack? For the hottest deals. Just so many good brands. Join the Nordy Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you rack. All right, Rams, Bears. More weather. Yeah, I was just about to say. I haven't checked, but it seems pretty miserable.

59:2318 degrees, 13 mile an hour winds, potentially some snow. Who do you think that impacts more? LA. Really? LA, I guess I was thinking quarterbacks. Do you think like the broader LA roster? Yeah. LA offense.

59:50I don't know. Let's talk quarterbacks. Which quarterback do you think impacts more? I would say Caleb. Because, you know, I think people see Matthew Stafford now and they're like, oh, well, he's in Los Angeles. People forget he was playing road games in Chicago and Green Bay for a decade. It's not like this is the first time he's had to experience bad weather. And if throwing the ball is not advisable, Bears have a really good run game. The Rams have the best success, the third best success rate for any running game over the last decade. We'll talk about that, but I just think it feels like the Bears are going to be more desperate to throw maybe in this game than the Rams.

1:00:31Really? You think so? I don't know. I mean, you can talk me out of it. I think both teams will be able to run on both of these teams. I agree. I agree for sure. Well, let's start with the Rams offense versus the Bears defense because throughout the year I've been accused of Bears fans of being a non-believer. And I have been a non-believer in the defense. I have, Ben and I have actually gone back and forth on this. I'm like, I don't believe I don't believe they're not good. There's too many issues. And for one half of football, that proved to be correct. And then the Bears defense clamped down, man, and played their best half of football.

1:01:09Would you not say that that half of football against Green Bay was their best of the 2025 season? I mean, it was good. Given the argument. I'm not arguing with that. But like this kind of proves your point. The Packers scored 27 points in that game. they left seven points on the field with field goals and missed extra points. And if that's your victory lap, and I'm not saying it's your victory, I'm saying Bears fans would take that as their victory lap. I think that kind of confirms that maybe the defense is a little stinky. Well, so I found what they did in the second half to be interesting as well.

1:01:43They were still aggressive in terms of sending pressure, but they also played a lot of man coverage behind their four-man rush. They blitzed their corners a lot. The Packers play a lot of condensed formations. So do the Rams. So, Bill, let me ask you this. Do you think their approach, the approach that Dennis Allen took in the second half against the Packers, is similar to what they should do against L.A.? Nope. I do not want to see those Bears corners against Pukunikua and Devontae Adams in man coverage. I do not think that is a recipe for success. That is a recipe for Pukunikua 200-yard game.

1:02:23I do not want that. We'll talk about some of the decisions the Rams can make with personnel, I'm sure. But what I found interesting is that at the end of that game, the Packers basically stopped throwing at the outside corners. They were just going after Kyler Gordon no matter who was on him. Every single snap, outbreakers, crossers, hitches. like slot phase, like whatever they can do to go at Kyler, they were going at him. And he came back for that game, but he wasn't playing early in the game. Nick McLeod was in the slot and they sort of went to Kyler Gordon almost out of desperation, it felt like, as the game wore along.

1:03:06And so I think if you're Sean McVay, we'll talk about the linebackers because that's a weakness too, but I would imagine you're going to see whatever they can do to get Puka Nakua matched up against Kyler Gordon in this game. And I just don't see that as a good man matchup for the bears yeah i i think i'm in agreement with you but they have to find a way to pressure stafford they have to do something for sure it's a bit of a catch 22 because um i mean because again so against the packers they were able to have success with their four-man rush they also ran some fire zones early in the second half that worked if ever but the Packers offensive line was very injured and you I I put out a we talked about this on Tuesday I think the injuries on the Packers offensive line were kind of the story of the second half for me Rams offensive line is significantly better I just feel like if their approach is to just rush with four in this game they're not going to have a chance so you have to almost play the variance game a bit and find a way to because we've seen this year if Matthew Stafford is kept clean it's it's it's over but yeah yeah and they're getting they're getting Kevin Dotson back in this game as well right yes that's not gonna help uh the Paris defensive line getting back the Rams best interior linemen um it sort of feels like it's it's not only that, you know, it's not just rushing forward, but maybe it's like, what are you playing behind it?

1:04:43Like, can you trap Stafford? Can you trick him? He's seen it all before, but like Matthew Stafford will throw the ball into a tight window. He has no qualms about putting the ball in a place he thinks an opening is, even if it's a very small window. And we saw, you know, Mike Jackson got what looked like a really easy pick on, you know, on first glance because Matthew Stafford thought a window was there and it wasn't. So it feels like that's the way the Bears have to do this. When we talk about high-variance defenses, there's what the Lions did last year with Aaron Glenn where it was, hey, we have eight NFL players left, 60 % man rate, 50 % blitz rate.

1:05:21We're just going to come after you every single stop. That's a way you can do that. Another high-variance way is just, can we disguise our coverages? Can we trap? Can we spin our safeties? Can we get guys in throwing lanes? Can we mask our post-op assignments as much as possible? Harder to do without TJ Edwards. That's going to be a big loss for the Bears in this game. But that feels like the way they get the high variance outcome to me. So that was the other thing I wanted to hit. So TJ Edwards, their starting linebacker, injured, out. If I'm the Rams, once again, I know I said this last time, and they didn't do it until the second half.

1:05:59i'm really leaning to 13 because the bears i don't think have the people to play base right now and this nickel defense can't stop kyron williamson like i'd be surprised out of those looks so if you love the six offensive lineman discussion you'll love the 13 personnel discussion we have for you uh i mean this is not like we were talking about the texans defense we're like how do you attack him and like yeah this is kind of like a pick your poison game for shawnee bay is there anything you think the rams that would be a mistake to do throw to davante adams 12 times i mean that was the one thing yeah it's weird that seemed a little concerning to me about the last game is that you have davante adams coming back he's gone for a month and i don't know if he just didn't look right maybe it was a sloppy game but like he just did not seem like the same guy yeah i I feel like there's just, they have a lot of answers against this team.

1:07:02And the Bears have not faced 13 at all, really, all year. Yeah, I know. I was trying to get their personnel matchup. I mean, but it's just, they're not, like, they just don't have the linebackers right now. And, you know, Kyler Gordon's a very good run defender, too. So I think they're going to want him to be on the field. Okay, so on the other side, Bears fans, I know you're probably mad as me. I do think there's a lot of things that this Bears offense can do to it. Because, you know, as good as this LA offense is, the defense has really sprouted a lot of cracks over the last two months, over the last six weeks.

1:07:39They're below average, particularly against the run, alluded to that. One thing that caught my eye in that time frame, just sorting it, they are 30th in EPA per play versus play action. going back and watching some of the success that teams have had in that timeframe. I mean, in the Panthers game, a couple of Bryce, like the deep dig to the villain, Bruce Durant, um, Jacoby percent, nine for 11 for 93 yards. He had, he had a corner to McBride in line. That was like ripped from the bears playbook. It's like a corner out. So I just, I do think that this Rams defense has a lot of the vulnerabilities, particularly on the back end have really begun to show up and there's a there is a lot of ways for chicago to attack them yeah even over the full year 27th in epa per play against play action and so wow it's not it's not only play action but like play action can mean a lot of different things like play action can mean deep post over the top um play action can mean like a play action screen something weird but like i think the specific plays the specific concepts that ben johnson loves are like those runaways from the slot.

1:08:51That like, remember when the Lions in midseason when Dan Campbell took over and they were like, oh, we forgot to run Jamison Williams and any like, you know, crossers. We was just running vertical routes. That was what Jamison Williams did so well under Ben Johnson. And it feels like that's what he wants to do with his receivers. And that is where I think the Rams really struggle because like their linebackers are, they're okay. Like Nate Levin's been okay this year. Omar Spates, who's getting a lot of mentions in this episode. that's been okay but like that is very clearly the weakest part crossers is what caught my eye last week ahead of the panthers game i i was like i feel like they're bad against crossers and they were like 30th league wide yeah then you saw that come to fruition um yeah 100 percent um i agree in terms of like attacking in breakers um and caleb will throw those it's not it's not like a jail and hurt situation where the you know they will not throw a limit on the field like That's what Caleb wants to hit.

1:09:47But as I said, too, I do think they can run on them. Quentin Lake came back. He got attacked a lot by Carolina in the passing game, as did Kobe Durant. Yeah, but I'm not convinced that this run game, this run defense, is going to be demonstrably better. And the Bears do have, you know, the Rams, FTN does the run play classifications. so in that time frame I talked about like the last six weeks according to FTN the Rams have given up 7.7 yards per carry to outside zone which is dead last in the NFL don't know if you know but there's a team in Chicago that really loves to run outside zone and it was the Seattle hit a lot of that on them in their um the last game a lot of that under center outside zone you know I think there's a lot of I guess what I'm getting at here is a lot of the ways that the Rams defense appears week actually sync up with the strengths of this Chicago offense.

1:10:45For sure. I agree. And I would also think about their personnel groupings. Like they can run 12 with Colston Loveland and Cole Komet. And that's not what the Rams want to see. The Rams matched 12 with their base defense 40 % of the time this year. And it was not fun. They allowed, I want to say like two full more yards per play matching up there with base as opposed to matching up with their nickel grouping. And they want to play dying. That is what, at the end of the day, Chris Shula wants to do is play Dime as much as possible. And the Bears could run you out of that. Like, if the Rams can hold up with five, and especially with six defensive backs on the field and early downs against the Bears, then the Bears have a real problem.

1:11:26But I just don't think that's likely. I think the Bears are going to run them out of that stuff. The Rams also don't have, Akela Witherspoon is out for the year. They're going to have to probably bring back Darius Williams. It's been a healthy scratch. I don't know how much faith they even have in their cornerbacks. And so that's a way, I think, to really create some crises for the Rams about who we can have on the field. And if they can keep things close, like I think if you get down 21-0, it's going to be tough, although they did come back last week. Packers defense, but it's very different.

1:11:57The Packers defense and the Rams defense are very different. The Packers offense, more importantly, is very different. Yes. Yes, and I don't think the Rams will average one yard per carry running the football for most of the game. But it does feel like the Bears can run the Rams into the personal groupings they want and then play action the hell out of those personal groupings once they get there. I think for the Rams, you really want your four-man rush to show up in a way that they've kind of been inconsistent. Ozzy Trapilo, the Bears' left tackle is out, so we're going to see Braxton Jones. and with the Bears the rush containment is a big part of that which is something I think the Rams have been good at in the past, you can't let Caleb break the pocket, think about the rep the fourth and eighth rep where he hits the god level throw Rashawn Gary goes inside I think the Rams edges will play with more discipline against him look like I said, I do think there is absolutely a path for the Bears offense.

1:13:03For sure. But whereas I think like I look at the Bears offense or the Rams defense and I'm like, there's matchups and, you know, but then I could see the Rams pass rush having success. When I look at the other side of the ball, I don't see it. And I am wrong. When I say I don't see it, I mean, I don't, it's a lot harder for me to find answers for the Bears defense. So I'm taking LA here. Bears fans, you'll be thrilled. They're like, pick against us again. And you're good luck. All right, I'm doing it. I'm taking LA. And it's because of the offense against your defense. And maybe I'll look stupid.

1:13:36I'm totally fine with that. But I'm going to stick to what I believe here. There's a way. It's a three-turnover game. It is like Kyron Williams fumbles inside the 10-yard line. Matthew Stafford throws a pick. And he gets strip-sacked. Like, that is entirely possible. We saw the Panthers do it to the Rams earlier this year. Kyron fumbled inside the five-yard line against the Niners. Oh, the other thing, special teams. Like, if the Bears win this game, would it not be shocking if they missed an extra point? I don't talk about my teams anymore, but I acknowledge your... Rams special teams, they gave up, like...

1:14:18They had some real bad special teams moments in the Panthers games. Yeah, the block puck was not ideal. And then Ben Johnson's going to be in four-down territorial game. I love his answer when they asked him at halftime last week, by the way. They were like, oh, can you explain your fourth-down decisions? And he couldn't say our defense sucks, and so we have to go for it every fourth down because the Packers are going to score by the time they get the ball. He was just like, oh, well, you know, we're optimizing for possessions. And I was like, well, you're right, but he's going to be in four-down territorial game.

1:14:49Will Sean McKay. I think he's going to match. like i'm i'm so proud of him yeah he has been also we factor in the sean mcveigh revenge for his bff matt lafleur factor you've been following this whole coach coach drama i have i i like a good coach drama opportunity it's truly just ridiculous so from what i gather from just being on sets and listening to the chatter over the last couple of days sean and matt are best friends matt and ben hate each other as we saw so sean would really like this is this is not me reporting but don't be surprised if he wants to put a little extra oomph on this one i love the idea like he wasn't gonna put any oomph on it in the divisional round of like maybe his last full season as a coach with matthew stafford but he's like you disrespected matt lafleur pre-game speech do it for matt do it for matt um they're all gonna come out they're all gonna come out on the sideline in the matt luffler um tech fest outfit to honor him like those uh free rishi rice shirts like but they'll make them with like matt luffler and wear them pre-game um what was i gonna say uh by the way those did not age well geez i do think sean is very competitive and the fact that like Ben Johnson's like the hot hot young play caller.

1:16:19He's getting like, you know, he I do think and this I feel comfortable saying he will relish the opportunity to to, you know, go deep into his bag. Is Sean McVay older than Ben Johnson? It's a great question. Sean McVay is exactly my age. I think Ben Johnson's 39. And Sean mcveigh is also 39 so they're the exact same age mcveigh is a little five months older yeah than ben johnson the wonder can show him sean yes all right uh wait so you wait are you on rams or bears i'm on rams okay but like i'm on like 47 41 like crazy back and forth game yeah there you go bears fans i did it for you again i got you the bulletin board material i love watching this team I hate that I've become like, ah, I love watching Kayla Williams so much.

1:17:13I just don't believe in the defense. Prove me wrong again. Make me look dumb. All right. That's it. Four games this week. Very fun. Bill is the host of the Bill Barnwell podcast. You guys should check that out, obviously, wherever you get your pods. I will be back next week with Dominique to recap the divisional round on Tuesday. I'm going to put out this video where I rank the head coach job openings. so you guys can check that out at youtube.com slash at me to kimes hopefully they don't get filled by the time it comes out uh it's so funny eric asked me he was like which one's the best and i was like how is anyone not saying baltimore like not to spoil the video you get 20 years i mean that's that's a pretty good thing 20 years and no quarterback all right um they'll find a quarterback the sailors do rank high in my patented system so go check it out Sears fans.

1:18:07Um, and also if you are watching the traders, uh, my pod with Ava Dennis, junior, viewer discretion will come out on Friday. We are also recapping fallout. Are you watching the traders? Um, I am a real snob. I'm strictly a traders UK fan. US doesn't do it for me. I'm sorry. Donna Kelsey was the secret trader on this season. no I saw Jason I wanted to ask him about it but I was I felt like that would be weird

1:18:40alright that's it for this week thank you as always to my friends at Omaha Productions who make this pod Kirsten Sebecky Owen Saylor, Jack Foster Tucker Tashton, see you guys next week

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