The Mendoza Line: Discussing the QBs and RBs of the 2026 Draft

1 Apr 2026 · 1 h 46 min · 45 chapters

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In short

The 2026 NFL Draft preview focuses on QB Fernando Mendoza as the consensus QB1, with Ty Simpson as the QB2 debate, plus a running-back segment that includes “Mendoza and Simpson with a splash of nuts.” They also discuss how Mendoza’s skills fit a Clint Kubiak/Kubiak-style Raiders offense and why Simpson is a high-variance outlier.

Guests (backgrounds)

  • Danny Kelly: Works with The Ringer; covers fantasy and is part of The Ringer’s draft coverage.
  • Nate Tice: Draft analyst/“Football 301” host; known for quarterback scouting.

Key claims about Fernando Mendoza

  • Best traits are ball placement/accuracy (especially back-shoulder throws and outs) and “clutch” production on third/fourth down (noted: 0.5 EPA per dropback on money downs; strong KBR and yards/attempt).
  • He’s polished and mentally prepared; described as tough/unflappable and a leader.
  • Main concern: sack rate/pressure decisions—he can drop his eyes and scramble into sacks; needs fewer sacks in the NFL.
  • Fit: Kubiak offense under center, play-action heavy, more middle-of-field throws; Mendoza’s college offense was more outside-the-numbers, so there’s an adjustment.

Notable examples

  • Indiana vs Alabama drop-rate contrast (Alabama Indiana: 115th vs 13th drop rate).
  • Ohio State Big Ten Championship: third-and-3 aggressive deep throw after surviving pressure; also cross-body on the run.
  • Cal days: toughness despite RPO-heavy schemes and poor protection.

Key claims about Ty Simpson

  • High upside: reads zone coverage well, strong arm, “coach’s son” polish, and big-time throws (noted: 30 big-time throws tied for FBS lead per PFF).
  • Concerns: inconsistency (two-season split), limited starts (15), smaller size (listed around 6’1, ~208), and outlier risk for a first-round pick.
  • Notable example: LSU game cited as showing pro-style zone reading and satisfaction vs zone coverage, but later-season issues (gastritis) and Alabama receiver drop-rate problems are discussed as context.

Notable examples for Simpson destinations

Teams discussed as potential fits: Rams (preferred by Danny), Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, Dolphins; Jets are dismissed as too unstable.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

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The Quirky Reference to Beethoven

0:45 to 1:52

Discussion about a playful joke involving Jeremy Bernard and Beethoven.

Introducing the Guest Experts

1:52 to 2:45

Introducing Danny Kelly and Nate Tice, their backgrounds, and expertise.

“It's like when you're driving on a road and suddenly it turns into another road.”

Setting Up the Draft Discussion

2:45 to 3:16

Overview of the podcast focus on quarterbacks and running backs in the draft.

Analyzing Fernando Mendoza's Game

3:16 to 5:00

In-depth analysis of Fernando Mendoza's skills and potential as a QB1.

Ball Placement and Clutch Performance

5:00 to 7:14

Discussion of Mendoza's accuracy and performance under pressure.

Receiver Connection and Drop Rate Issues

7:14 to 8:35

Exploration of Mendoza's connections with receivers and drop rate stats.

“He led all power four quarterbacks, pardon me, in outs thrown this year.”

Mendoza's Leadership and Toughness

8:35 to 11:00

Discussion on Mendoza's leadership qualities and resilience on the field.

“And that's what, with outs, it's, Yanni, you hit it.”

Comparing Mendoza to Other Quarterbacks

11:00 to 14:00

Comparisons drawn between Mendoza and other notable quarterbacks.

“And even more so at Cal, and he was just getting clotheslined every play.”

Evaluating Quarterback Mendoza's Skills

14:00 to 17:40

Discussion on Mendoza's athleticism and performance under pressure.

“The Ohio State game is, to me, the most impressive performance when you consider the level of competition and just stay tuned for the defense pod because it is remarkable how talented that defense was.”

Coaching Impact on Mendoza's Development

17:40 to 20:20

Exploration of coaching strategies and how they affect Mendoza’s transition.

“but at least he's not taking sacks and turning the ball over a lot or sort of putting the ball in harm's way.”
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Mendoza's Fit in the Raiders' Offense

20:20 to 23:20

Analyzing Mendoza's skillset in relation to the Raiders' offensive scheme.

“Indiana's offense was very focused on throws outside the numbers.”

Realistic Expectations for Rookie Quarterbacks

23:20 to 26:00

Discussing the typical struggles and expectations for rookie quarterbacks.

“So I think that's actually he can hit the ground running to maybe be that below average as a rookie, which I think is outstanding in everything you want.”

Ty Simpson vs. Mendoza: A Quarterback Comparison

26:00 to 28:00

Comparing Ty Simpson's performance to Mendoza's and discussing their skills.

“And I was just explaining, I'm kind of trying to get some street cred with him, you know, like, Hey, you know, I play.”

Evaluating Ty Simpson's Quarterback Skills

28:00 to 29:15

Learn about Ty Simpson's quarterback skills, including his ability to read defenses and arm talent.

“watching some of these games um i mentioned they were 115th and drop rate that feels generous based on some of these games.”

Ty Simpson: The Coach's Son

29:16 to 30:48

Explore how Ty Simpson's background as a coach's son and backup impacts his playing style and decision-making.

“It just doesn't get there quite in time.”

Analyzing Ty Simpson's Performance Metrics

30:49 to 33:28

Examine Ty Simpson's performance metrics, including big time throws and his potential as a draft prospect.

“How many starts is it that is like the benchmark?”

Ty Simpson's Mechanics and Inconsistency

33:29 to 35:31

Discuss Ty Simpson's mechanical issues and how they contribute to inconsistency in his performance.

“You could take four or five throws of his from every game and put together a cut up.”

The Outlier Quarterback Debate

35:32 to 38:36

Delve into the implications of Ty Simpson's outlier status in terms of size and experience among quarterbacks.

“Russell Wilson, who's definitely not under 215 or wasn't for most of that time.”

Drafting Ty Simpson: Risks and Rewards

38:37 to 41:30

Analyze the risks and rewards associated with drafting Ty Simpson based on his college starts and performance.

“I looked since 2002, quarterback since 2002, to be listed sub-205, so I didn't even look at height, and throw for more than 5 ,000 yards in their career.”

Potential Landing Spots for Ty Simpson

41:31 to 42:00

Consider potential NFL teams that may be interested in drafting Ty Simpson and their strategies.

QB Destinations for Ty Simpson

42:00 to 43:50

Discussion on potential teams for Ty Simpson's future in the NFL draft.

“also not a size outlier and right and had a better and stroud started as a redshirt freshman game one and play two straight years.”

Evaluating the Jets and Cardinals

43:50 to 45:50

Analyzing the suitability of the Jets and Cardinals as destinations for quarterbacks.

“And that's the same, you can say the same about the Jets because they have a whole bunch of picks.”

Rams as a Potential Fit

45:50 to 47:50

Exploration of the Rams as a favorable landing spot for quarterbacks in the draft.

“I'm like, talk about that and how insane it is to me.”

Introduction to Garrett Nussmeyer

47:50 to 49:00

Discussing Garrett Nussmeyer’s background and potential as a quarterback.

“It's like, well, quarterback, like, sorry, Mina, but yeah, like we're quarterback just grading too is like, I might consider these guys as day two guys.”

Scouting Garrett Nussmeyer

49:00 to 54:00

In-depth analysis of Nussmeyer's skills, strengths, and weaknesses as a quarterback.

“Let's hit Garrett Nussmeyer first then before the break because he is.”

The Coach's Son Factor

54:00 to 56:00

Exploration of the advantages and implications of being a coach's son in sports.

“I have a kind of an old inside joke on our podcast about Baker Mayfield that nobody rips passes like Baker.”

The Impact of Legacy in Sports

56:00 to 58:26

Explore how being a child of a former athlete influences performance and expectations.

“I talked to an NBA guy that he works for the Nuggets, and he said that that's their number, and he's more of an analytics guy.”

Evaluating Quarterback Prospects

58:26 to 1:03:21

A deep dive into various quarterback prospects, their strengths, and concerns.

“I don't want to talk about the other quarterbacks.”

Analysis of Jeremiah Love's Potential

1:05:44 to 1:10:01

Discussion on Jeremiah Love's capabilities as a top running back prospect.

“So Jeremiah Love is the lead running back out of Notre Dame.”

Comparing Running Back Generations

1:10:11 to 1:10:41

Comparison of current running back prospects with past generational talents.

“Yeah, I'm sure we'll talk about a couple.”

Exploring Love's Playing Style

1:10:42 to 1:11:28

Analysis of Jeremiah Love's playing style and abilities in comparison to Gentile.

“I think I would have him slightly below where I had like Gentile last year, I think.”

Value of Running Backs in the Draft

1:11:29 to 1:12:48

Discussion on the value and impact of drafting running backs high in the NFL draft.

Historical Context of Running Back Success

1:12:49 to 1:14:54

Examination of past running back draft picks and their success based on team context.

“But it's not going to – I don't love it behind a bad line.”

The Case for Drafting Love

1:14:55 to 1:16:44

Discussion on which NFL teams could benefit from drafting Jeremiah Love.

“You know, top 10 running back picks this 2010.”

Key Factors for Young Quarterbacks

1:16:45 to 1:18:49

Analysis of what elements are essential for the success of young quarterbacks in the NFL.

Receiving Impact of Running Backs

1:18:50 to 1:20:51

Exploration of how running backs can impact receiving plays and their overall team value.

“And then people say, well, he's a weapon.”

Challenges for Highly Drafted Running Backs

1:20:52 to 1:24:00

Discussion on the potential challenges faced by highly drafted running backs in poor team situations.

“If I get the eye to eye, he was your wide receiver.”

Evaluating Running Back Choices for NFL Teams

1:24:00 to 1:25:29

Discussion on the implications of team decisions regarding running backs and quarterbacks.

“And so it does help, technically, to have an explosive runner in your offense.”

Analyzing Jadarian Price's Skills and Fit

1:25:30 to 1:27:35

In-depth analysis of running back Jadarian Price's abilities and potential fit in various NFL teams.

“With Bill Rashad White and Jerome Ford, I'm good with that.”

Prospects for Running Back Two: The Importance of Depth

1:27:36 to 1:30:07

Exploration of the role of a running back two and the importance of depth in NFL backfields.

“There'll be a guy that has him dead to rights, and he'll just run around him.”

Comparing Running Back Classes: 2023 vs. 2026

1:30:08 to 1:32:02

Comparison of the current running back class with the previous year's class and implications for teams.

“So Marks, Montgomery, and Price, that's a good backfield.”

Jonah Coleman: A Unique Running Back Profile

1:34:22 to 1:38:00

Discussion on Jonah Coleman's playing style and how he fits into the current running back landscape.

“when he says he has somebody at running back three, Jonah Coleman.”

Analyzing Running Back Prospects

1:38:00 to 1:40:00

Discussion on various running back prospects and their potential impact in the NFL.

“And this is, again, this might be in the eyes of the beholder.”

Evaluating Specific Players

1:40:00 to 1:43:20

In-depth evaluations of specific running back players, including strengths and weaknesses.

“I'm trying to not let my Huskies homerism bleed into this.”

Draft Class Comparisons

1:43:20 to 1:46:40

Comparing the current draft class to previous years and highlighting standout players.

“All the rest of these guys, I consider day three.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Protein is now at Starbucks and it's never tasted so good. You can add protein cold foam to your favorite drink or try one of our new protein lattes or matcha. Try it today at Starbucks.

0:19Nate Tice:Welcome back to the VidaKime show featuring Lenny, the only NFL podcast. One of the hosts thinks Jeremy Bernard is the plot of the movie Beethoven. that's letty come on come on wow all right all right a beethoven joke in the year i know i know yeah i know all my zoomer listeners are like what's beethoven uh gather around children it's a movie about a dog we all watched 20 times for some reason as kids uh and with sequels uh fun player i feel like if his name wasn't jeremy bernard he would be going higher in the draft though and i not not me i love it but yeah yeah i think people are trying to figure out how to say it exactly we had a long discussion about that i think it's jeremy but i could be wrong what oh god just all right we're not talking about glue guy bernard i just i just there we go he's he's mr glue elmer call him bernard um actually we are kind of indirectly going to talk about him because we're going to talk about the alabama receivers inevitably when we talk about the Alabama quarterback because it is here today I have been threatening or promising depending on how you view it this podcast for weeks now I'll get to Mendoza and Simpson I promise at some point well that point is now I am joined by the members of the group chat Danny Kelly of the ringer and the ringer fantasy show and the ringer draft this is a different entity it's the same the same show but we changed the the title for some reason we're the only podcast in the world that changes our title halfway through the year.

1:52Nate Tice:It's like when you're driving on a road and suddenly it turns into another road. Exactly. You're lost, which is something that happens. Slight left onto the ringer NFL draft show. And then and then also the host of football 301. Excellent draft expert whose track record of scouting quarterbacks in recent years is very impressive. Nate Tice. Welcome Welcome back to the show, buddy. Only downhill from here. I thought, are we here to talk about the Mariners 3-2 start to the season? And maybe the Cal Rally walk-off after his day off and people talking crap about his start. He's back. Ends it with a double high five to Randy.

2:33Nate Tice:Double high five to Randy, yeah. The nation is healing. We're all good. By the time you listen to this, well, I'd actually have the rate the Mariners playing tonight. Doesn't matter to most of you. Okay, so today we're going to talk about the quarterbacks. but because there aren't this isn't 2024 uh we're also going to talk about the running backs because they didn't want to do an entire podcast on uh mendoza and simpson with a splash of nuts as i texted you and we can hit on the some of the other quarterbacks although you know spoiler alert they're not great uh but we are going to talk about the running backs uh and especially one running back and his value but as well as the other ones that we like in the second half of this podcast but rip the mandate we're gonna start with the quarterbacks um we all have Fernando Mendoza as QB1 so there's no drama there nobody's coming on this show to to make a Ty Simpson argument you got to turn on ESPN for that these days or other channels um I I want to talk about though why we all think Mendoza is quarterback one first um and and Nate why don't we start with you when you watch him what is your favorite aspect of his game and maybe in that you know selection why you think he is a worthy 1.1 pick for the las vegas raiders uh ball placement which we also call accuracy uh and and i would say that his operation even when i first watched my cow and then going into indiana i got even better not a lot of fat with him not a lot of fat with his movements I mean like as far as his drop backs he doesn't take many extra steps the ball comes out on time consistently there's just a lot of polish there but also more to tap into than I think he's getting credit for and I think that's what makes him exciting as a 1-1 and I grade him as not maybe as one of those top end crazy you know like how I had Drake May or Caleb Williams graded or Trevor Lawrence graded or you know since I've been kind of the media scouting but I still consider him like a pretty easy top 15 top 10 quarterback pick um even if he doesn't have that some of that sexiness to his game but i just still think he's been underrated with his size i mean how much he waited at the combine but also his athleticism he's a pretty good athlete um in that package and he's got a good arm uh like i wouldn't say amazing top five arm but a good arm and can make all the throws and does it well within the operation of the offense it can just do a little enough enough creativity to kind of you know create a little more out of structure so i think he just checks a lot of boxes and I think some people have been using the high floor term um and I I use that but I also want to kind of reiterate maybe more of a medium ceiling than maybe high floor low ceiling or high floor high ceiling high floor medium ceiling type of player but Mendoza is a lot of fun I just re-watched him Indiana because I was watching the running backs for this show and I was like yeah yeah you kind of just you just do a lot of nice things at the quarterback position Danny yeah I mean I he stole my answer with the ball placement thing that was exactly what I was gonna say and I was watching him just this morning and you know going back and watching some of the college football playoff just putting the ball exactly where his only his receivers can get it whether that's a back shoulder throw which he's really good at the back shoulder um in terms of timing and putting it you know to the outside so his he's one of the best back shoulder quarterbacks I've ever watched really yeah like it's not just really it is stunning how accurate his back shoulder is okay continue yeah no I totally agree I mean the timing you know with uh surat and some of the some of the throws that you see the vertical throws um down the field where just drops it in a bucket and it's kind of effortless looking so i'd say the ball placement was what i kind of came away with he does sometimes miss it's not like he's a perfect you know perfectly accurate there's times where he'll leave it a little to the inside or leave it a little short or whatever but for the most part i think consistency and accuracy was was the big thing um he's 6 '5 236 like he the size thing i think is not something people talk about a lot but he's like prototypical size good arm again i i agree with nate i don't think he has an elite arm but he has a good arm the ball placement on simple out routes he just makes look so easy like a it's like a handoff yeah um so hash too a lot of them are apple hash so which matters in college and and i think you know as part of that is the timing and you know knowing where he's going with the football and things like that so the polish and yeah so basically you know big picture I agree with pretty much everything Nate was saying you know he's not like an elite level prospect for a quarterback but he has a lot of the things he checks boxes exactly so yeah I'm excited about him and you know going into this Kubiak offense with the Raiders I think that could be a great fit for him I want to get to that in a second but sticking with the traits for a moment you guys both focused on basically his size and his accuracy being the two right which arguably two of the most important things for a quarterback right um so one of the things that gets mentioned a lot when we talk about Mendoza and Simpson is the drop rate issue and we'll bring that up with Simpson and it is a legit excuse for him because oh my god I don't know what happened to these out of our receivers but I would say with Mendoza so the Indiana Alabama was 115th in drop rate Alabama Indiana was 13th and when you watch him like it is incredible how in tune he is with his receivers including Cooper Jr.

7:48Nate Tice:who's probably going to go first round or top the second and i do think the receivers deserve some credit for that they're very sure-handed but i also think that's a mendoza stat because the ball is so perfectly placed it's hard to draw like the back shoulders you know they go both ways right like the placement on them is tremendous you you mentioned the outs that's probably my um i mean the back shoulders are beautiful but the outs are like my most encouraging oh this is going to work to the next level. He led all power four quarterbacks, pardon me, in outs thrown this year. And on those, he led them on first downs and he had a 93 % catchable ball rate, this is using true media, and a 2.24 second time to throw, which is lightning quick.

8:35Nate Tice:And that's what, with outs, it's, Yanni, you hit it. It's the timing and the arm strength, right? Because depending on where you're on the field, that can be a really difficult throw. But to me, like watching them, It is like a machine on those out routes. I want to bring up one of the things I think I like best about him. And this is probably my favorite Mendoza stat. And I want, and Danny, you can go first, kind of thoughts on this. I just think he's so clutch. Like, you know, I'm not talking about the big games, which became a little bit of a debate or whatever. It's not really debatable. But third and fourth down, Fernando Moza led NFL, or NFL, pardon me, led all-powerful quarterbacks in touchdowns on third and fourth down.

9:21Nate Tice:He averaged 0.5 EPA per dropback, which was second amongst all quarterbacks, with a 92 KBR and 9.55 yards per attempt. Those are very good numbers on money down. So as much as he had a good run game, decent offensive line, receivers who caught the balls, when I isolate this to third and fourth down when he had to make accurate throws on time he was super clutch in those moments Danny yeah I mean I think and you paint the perfect picture with the stats I would just say from the eye test too he was pretty unflappable he never really looked panicked to me um even in the big moments where you know the game is on the line I think the that that run for a touchdown in the championship game obviously gets talked about a lot and that was an amazing play um but for the most part in terms of when he's dropping back to pass just looks unflappable just looks like it's another play um and so i think you know marrying those stats with kind of just like the eye test i i do feel that he he does have that just late game leadership on flappability you can't quite put your finger on it it's it's it's why people are excited about him because you know it's not it's not necessarily the physical tools it's just kind of what he does as a leader um he his post-game interviews he's totally dorky guy but um he kind of does feel like the player that the team rallies around and i know that that's just kind of you know it's hard to it's hard to put it you can't put numbers on that or whatever but it is it's good that the numbers back up kind of my impression if that makes sense if you win and you're tough the locker room does not care yep that's what i keep trying to say to people and he is tough as He takes a beating.

11:01And even more so at Cal, and he was just getting clotheslined every play. And that was another – and I talked to him a little bit, actually, in an interview that's come out in a couple weeks. But he was like, I went through a whole bunch of different offenses at Cal. And I was like, well, okay, my exposure to you is your last year there. So let's talk about that. And it was a lot of RPOs where – it's RPOs I don't like, where it's RPOs where it's just you taking advantage to the outside as opposed to you reading like some defender over the middle. And so you're just throwing a go ball. Well, if you have bad Cal receivers who weren't winning, then he was just forced to hold on to the ball and like, okay, I got to find.

11:34And he was just getting smoked and clotheslined and he just keeps getting up. And that's where my comparison to Matt Ryan first came in because just height, toughness. Matt Ryan kind of had more of a Gumby athleticism. Like he was very like loosey-goosey, but actually a better athlete than he ever got credit for and a really good thrower on the move. And this is where the comparisons to golf are also asked because golf is – You will hang in there. yeah hang in there and take it take a hit even back to his cal days as well um when he had to play an air raid which they called the bear raid at the time uh under sunny dykes and it was one of the worst offensive lines i've ever seen but same thing and uh so he's part of that archetype and the toughness in that third and fourth down stuff though again bringing back the cal stuff was a bunch of rpos okay a bunch of out routes out routes go balls go balls hitches hitches hitches okay all right let's see some real throws then you watch him on third and fourth down at cal or at Indiana, and that's where you see the real quarterback come out.

12:30It's good that he can do the operation stuff, but you see him doing the pre-snap with protections. You see him pushing the ball. You see him trying throws in the red zone in tight spaces, but it all comes out on time, so he maximizes it. So his eyes are always going to the right spot. There's a throw, and also just talking about how he keeps fighting back, fighting back, fighting back. The Ohio State game, which was the Big Ten championship game, uh he had a there was a third down and it was like third and three third and four something like that and it was kind of a tight game at that point and rather than just throw they ran a concept and rather than just getting the first down okay take a deep breath we got the first okay now the pressure's off of me because remember like a house day was beating him up early and then he kind of came back he launches one on third and three i think it was to the uh to the receiver they have number 80 um who's a good player and just throws like a post on a third and three and i was just like that's balls like that's like that's like that's aggression but it's like 40 i'm looking

13:28Nate Tice:at my notes right i know exactly what you're talking about it's the one where styles is coming through is like yes guy coming right at him yes and it's that is aggression within the scheme and that's the stuff that wins football games that's the hidden yards that we like to talk about those are just stuff like yeah getting a first down is nice how about getting five first downs on one on one throughout like that and that's the stuff that i i i always fight favor with quarterbacks and with Mendoza I see it enough especially on those third fourth down plays and then also just the you know he looks like a rigid athlete like I get because he's kind of a funky runner but he has a better athlete than people think but he's also creative like throwing those RPOs especially Indiana you see him doing the straddle step and kind of throwing the sidearm throws yeah that's creativity yeah that's what like Mahomes does but it just doesn't mean Mahomes a little bit more fluid and loose but that's stuff that carries over to the next level because he's going to have to throw those so the fact that he's a longer guy and he can get the ball out quick just opens up more possibilities at what he can do at the next level.

14:25Nate Tice:There's a play in that. The Ohio State game is, to me, the most impressive performance when you consider the level of competition and just stay tuned for the defense pod because it is remarkable how talented that defense was. Spent 45 minutes just on their spine. Good God. I mean, it's just all NFL players, right? It's ridiculous. He was challenged and it wasn't perfect, but he made some really impressive throws. There was a play where he made where he evaded pressure, rolling to his left, throwing across his body on the run, which he didn't see a lot of on his tape. There was moments where he has what I would describe as functional NFL athleticism for a quarterback.

15:00Nate Tice:There were moments where Ohio State respected him on the zone read that I took. I'm always looking for that on court. No, I'm just like, I'm like, do you actually see a defender affected by the quarterback keeping? And there were a couple moments in that game where like downs and styles were pulled by him and had eyes on him. So yeah, I think, you know, we hit all the things I like. um you know but he's he's not a perfect quarterback cross-fuck you mentioned he's not comparable to you know like your burrow your lawrence perhaps um the thing that gives me the most pause and and i want to hear what you guys thought is is just uh you know like aside from the fact that he's not he doesn't have crazy cable Williams arm talent and he's not uh he's a functional quarterback he's not a dual threat in the NFL as i would describe it fine you can win without those we've seen guys win you've mentioned some of them the one thing i think he really needs to clean up we'll get talk about the scheme and the experience because that's i don't feel that as a negative on him so much as an unproven he's just got to take fewer sacks right i'll say this and i think it's under pressure his numbers are bad you know they're not that tyson's your worst but um it's not great right i will say and i it sounds like i'm making an excuse i think some of it was him looking guys off some of it was him he does tend to drop his eyes versus pressure and scramble rather than try to make a play downfield as well a generous amount of the sacks no one was open and I think in my rewatch and I think these Indiana receivers have really great hands I do not view them as elite separators and I think that's where that kind of showed up a little bit but it is if he's going to win in the NFL as a pocket quarterback and that's what he's going to play he does have to take fewer sacks Danny that would probably be my number one criticism of his as a prospect is the number of sacks he took I know and I think if you look at sort of him analytically that is the big big red flag is is the sacks thing and there's sort of different schools of thought whether that's something that you can actually improve on or is sort of just a part of who you are typically quarterbacks who take a lot of sacks or have a high sac rate in college will end up having a high sac rate in the pros.

17:09Um, and it is, yeah, it's the big thing. I think that's the big bugaboo that most people are kind of worried about. And so, you know, that's up to him to kind of try and iron that out. It's going to be up to what happens, uh, you know, with Kubiak and how they try and mitigate that issue. Um, there's certainly been quarterbacks in the pros that have a high sac rate that do end up succeeding. Um, but I think that's always going to probably be something that we talk about with him. I will say at the very least he protects the football. You know, the sack thing is one thing, but at least he's not taking sacks and turning the ball over a lot or sort of putting the ball in harm's way.

17:45So that to me would be sort of like the counter is maybe he's deciding to eat the football and take a sack rather than force the ball into coverage, things like that. He's not throwing the ball away immediately because he's like, you know, skittish in the pocket, things like that. So there's ways to look at it. But yeah, that is to me the big kind of thing to worry about with him is that sack rate. Yeah, he – and again, I keep bringing up the Cal days, but that was – it got – it was worse at Cal and it got way better this year. Again, some of that was I attribute to their offensive line just being absolutely atrocious and the RPO heavy scheme that had less – fewer answers for him as far as when things didn't go right, which was a lot.

18:26But then Indiana, I would say that some of that is, I agree with some of the eyes coming down, where it's like he kind of is still, you can tell he wants to work in the pocket and move in the pocket, but then he can't trust himself to totally do it, where he's not looking, where he's keeping his eyes up. He's got to glance a little bit and move. And he can build backwards a little bit, and that can bring up some issues because he's not, the only guys that can get away with this, and this is something I really look at with quarterback prospects, is if they build backwards, because in the NFL that doesn't happen, unless you are a freak, unless you're Lamar.

18:58And some of the other guys, Jaden Daniels, can get away with it a little bit. Caleb. Yeah, yeah. Even Hurts gets away with it. But again, his tackles help him out a little bit with that. But it's one of those where you have to be a plus-plus athlete to get away with it. That's why for guys that do it in college, I'm always like that's a big red flag for me, especially if I think they are not a great athlete. Mendoza got better at it, but I can tell there's times, especially on third downs, where he's like trying to reset in the pocket and then he feels the pressure. and rather than step side and then step up, he steps backwards.

19:27And he's like, oh, I shouldn't have done that. Oh, sack. And then the play goes negative. He did, again, he did improve on it. But I will say that's one thing that's a little iffy. And, again, this is where aggressiveness and creating explosives can maybe counteract that. Like it's the Drake Bay theory. Okay, he can take sacks and take some negatives. But the thing is he's hunting for first downs and explosive plays on every play so he kind of balances it out. So, again, that's just kind of the math problem that the coaching staff will have to figure out. All right.

19:54Nate Tice:So we know what the coaching staff is. There's no mystery here, which makes it nice and easy and fun to talk about. Right. Because it's Clint Kubiak. And we know what a Clint Kubiak offense looks like. We just saw it win the Super Bowl. We know that Clint Kubiak wants his quarterback to be under center at one of the highest rates in the league. We know it's a very play action heavy offense. We know he wants to use the middle of the field. these uh things are not things that fernando mendoza was asked to do in college and i really want to emphasize ask to do because the reality is very few quarterbacks are asked to do any of those things in college anymore in fact like i was looking at under center snaps and it was two right which is a number you're gonna hear a lot ty simpson at 38 like like it's not like you know what i mean it's just not something college quarterbacks do i mean ty can do it And we're going to talk about that offense is definitely more pro style, but also throwing between the numbers.

20:44Nate Tice:Indiana's offense was very focused on throws outside the numbers. We talked about the back shoulders and the outs. He was 37th in past attempts between the numbers. So Nate, let's start with you. There's some speculation here required, right? Like, so in your mind, I have two questions. Kind of how do you think his skillset translates in this offense? And also should it translate immediately? Like, are we, we feeling good about day one with him? and I know that's a little bit of a larger question that's also about the Raiders roster but like let's talk about now Mendoza through the lens of the Raiders offense and its scheme I think he'll hit the ground running mentally because I do think that again just to reiterate the third and fourth down stuff we talk about that really helps that he is not going from a true true college offense like Trevor Lawrence at Clemson which ran eight concepts but they ran them every first down every second down every third down every fourth down very collegey offense that then he gets to the NFL and it was like, I get some growing pains with it where Mendoza, at least out in watching him for two years is that he has been used to a changing and evolving game plans from week to week.

21:49So I think mentally he's going to be, and I mean, obviously the LinkedIn jokes, all that, I think he's going to be pretty on top of it all. So that, that makes me where I don't think he's going to be a rookie. He's going to have moments, but I do think he won't be as overwhelmed as maybe some other guys are. Like, I think cam Ward probably would have more of a transition last year. He played in good offenses, but it was very air raid ran a lot of the same concepts week to week where Mendoza every third and fourth down, it was something new every single week because they have really good coaches that were game planning stuff.

22:16But the fact that you could execute it now, the under center stuff is something I he's a good enough athlete that I think it's going to, he's going to take to it and be fine. Like if you're a good enough athlete and you have quick enough feet, I'm never really worried about that as much. But there's just going to be some turning his back to the defense on play action. That'll be the one thing you don't know until you do it. Like that's the thing I can project all I want. And, but of course some quarterbacks just freak out with that. Joe Burrell still doesn't do it. Like some quarterbacks just don't like doing that.

22:44And I totally understand. So right now in theory, I think he'll be fine and be able to be a, like not embarrassing level as a rookie. I think if you're an average quarterback as a rookie, that is tremendous. And I think he can maybe touch that. Cause I think he has some decent surroundings around him and the one big weakness on their offense, which I think is their whole line. This offensive system helps that out. as far as the Kubiak offense and the Shanahan offense. And they threw in, yep, that was the theory in Seattle, and it worked out great. But that's also the thing. You get Linderbaum in there, take a little mental load off.

23:15I think Mendoza can earn that right to handle more. But now he doesn't have to, day one. It's not Caleb Williams' rookie year where they threw everything at him and he was handling stuff on the road in week two and all that, where I think that there is actually a much better infrastructure, as I've kind of marinated on it and looked at everything, than maybe you would assume with kind of the Raiders who have been, I mean, let's be honest, a laughingstock for like a decade plus now, almost 20 years now. So I think that's actually he can hit the ground running to maybe be that below average as a rookie, which I think is outstanding in everything you want.

23:46Right. I know. I think that's the thing I was thinking too the whole time is it feels like we've gotten over our skis a little bit with expectations for rookie quarterbacks. There's been a few outliers over the last few years where guys come in and are immediately superstars, you know, the Jaden Daniel type thing where you're like, oh my god he changed the entire or complexion of the organization that typically doesn't happen especially for you know topic for everybody keeps forgetting bros rookie season i keep hearing like

24:11Nate Tice:joe burrow you're what i'm like guys you are you all forgetting his rookie season like it's like everyone memory hold it so yeah it is very rare yeah so like from a fantasy point of view because i cover fantasy during the regular season it's you basically don't expect much from the skilled players when you're when you have a rookie quarterback it's it's an outlier if the skilled players end up being very either consistent or high end volume because you basically the the idea is and it's a smart thing is the coaches are going to try and take as much off of him as possible i think that's where the run game comes in i'm excited about kind of seeing where genti can fit into the to the kubiak scheme and how that how that will help you know the seahawks ran a lot of two tight end stuff last year that was a big part of their offense i think they have the raiders have two very good tight ends in brock bowers and michael mayer so you know i think they're going to try and take a lot of pressure off him.

24:59I think the only thing you're looking at the roster and you kind of like, what do they have at receiver? There's not a lot of talent at receiver right now. Respect Trey Tucker. Trey Tucker, good little role player, I think. Send him deep. Just send him deep. Maybe the hive is real.

25:13Nate Tice:Maybe the hive is out there. Maybe we'll see Jack Besh do something. I don't know. But yeah, I think... No, I agree. You know, big picture. Expectations should be realistic, which is he probably is going to have some struggles. he's probably going to turn the ball over. And it's going to be, like you guys have said, it's going to be a process to kind of get him into this offense. But I think he has the tools to do it. Like you said, Nate, I think he has sort of the preparation skills to do it just based on everything you kind of hear about him, what he's done in his career, the type of person he projects to be, which it feels like he's kind of like a bookish, you know, dorky guy who's going to be, you know, on his P's and Q's with everything.

25:52So yeah, I'm, you know, optimistic with what he can do. But also I think you have to be realistic. It's probably not going to be pretty all the time. I did the interview with him and we, he started before we started the show. He, I was like, Oh, so I'm Nate. And I was just explaining, I'm kind of trying to get some street cred with him, you know, like, Hey, you know, I play. And he was like, no, I'm dead serious. He was like, no, I'm very aware of who you are. I did. I looked you up. I did my research. And it was like, of course you did. You did like a book report on me probably. And he was like, and then, and then I, I could share this.

26:19I think it's a good thing. it was that we finished recording and then he immediately asked me what I think he needs to work on and he was like I know you've written I know you've done profiles on me what and I one of my first thought was could you have done this with the mics on but two it was like wow that's really cool that like he wanted to pepper my brain and he was locked in like and I was like okay this this is crazy I know and I was like I don't know these are those are redeeming qualities to me because it's not matters he's giving he's giving Russell Wilson genuine you win it's genuine yeah it's not It's not an act.

26:50Yeah.

26:52Nate Tice:Listen, Russ's desire to get better and study and prepare was never like, you know, it's necessary. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, you should say. It matters. That's why we said I thought I worked hard and then I got around Russ and then I realized at Wisconsin and I was like, oh, oh, that's the level you have to work. Work ethic and intelligence is something shared by both of the top two prospects. And it feels like a point to transition to Ty Simpson, who is my QB2. I do not have him close to Mendoza personally um you know I alluded to the debate and I don't have him close to Mendoza largely there's a there's a few reasons the outlier stuff I want to put a pin in because that to me is the biggest red flag here I want to start by talking about what I like about his game and I want to hear your guys's thoughts on this generally um as has often been discussed it is a bit of a tale of two seasons you know the first half ty simpson versus the second half and there's a litany of reasons why you know you've heard that he had gastritis in the second half uh the other thing i'll say is like you know and i alluded to this the alabama receivers legitimately could not catch the football it was actually kind of stunning watching some of these games um i mentioned they were 115th and drop rate that feels generous based on some of these games.

28:11Nate Tice:So that, but it's not just because of the excuses. You know, I think, especially in the first half and the LSU game is the one that comes to mind. There is something very satisfying about watching quarterback in a, in a, what is a much more pro style offense. And I think this is part of the reason why guys like him, you know, look at the defense, particularly when he was facing zone coverage and immediately know where to go with the football. And that's what I felt watching Ty, especially against zone in particular. I was like, oh, he knows what he's seeing. He is reading this out perfectly. The ball is going to the right place.

28:45Nate Tice:So there's that. I also think he has a good arm. Like I, you know, my issue is not that he can't make any throws. He can make all of the throws. I think it would just be a matter of consistency. That is a ding for me. But I do think in his tape, there is evidence that he can make all the throws required of a quarterback at the next level. So I would say, you know, reading defenses, particularly zone and arm talent are probably the two aspects of his game that I liked the most. Danny, what did you like about Ty Simpson State? yeah I mean I think the polish it's such a cliche but he looks like a coach's son type of deal where and a guy who was a backup for three years where he was preparing and he didn't come into this thing unprepared mentally you know I think that that is again probably why a lot of teams end up will end up liking him is the preparation the polish from being a coach's son and for being from being a backup for a long time um I will say like the stat that I kind of was surprised to see is I saw this from PFF he had tied for the first in the FBS with 30 big time throws so he definitely can make some you know like I said big time throws he he can fit it into a tight window down the field and he's willing to pull the trigger on that I will say sometimes when he gets out of structure and he's trying to throw off off platform that was where I think he started to spray the football a lot yeah make some bad decisions he kind of has the he just waits a beat too long to stick to a play kind of deal and ends up being a little bit late on the throw or whatever.

30:17It just doesn't get there quite in time. And that's where he gets himself in trouble is because he thinks he can salvage it and then he doesn't quite do it. But yeah, I mean, to me, the big story with him is just how high are you willing to, how much are you willing to spend to bet on this massive outlier based on his size profile and his starts, starts in college where he has only 15 starts. He's already an older prospect with only 15 starts. He's kind of like a real big outlier in a lot of different ways. so you know and and i think the the reason one of the big reasons he's so um polarizing or controversial or whatever like you know i think obviously there's good things to like and bad things to like but the problem is we just don't know we don't have a long enough track record he has like five good games and then some bad games where you're like okay so which one is he um and so i think that's why teams have like historically really wanted their quarterbacks to have X amount of starts.

31:12How many starts is it that is like the benchmark? It's like 20-something. Yeah. I'll get to the starts and the size in a second

31:21Nate Tice:because it is very – when you get to the names, it's pretty jarring. It's brutal. Nate, what did you like about Ty? It's that he has more arm than you would assume given his frame and his size. Actually, there's so much about Simpson that once we talk about Nussmeier that it's just like copy paste. Coach's kid. A lot of similarities. Undersized, a little older for the grade than you think. Had to sit some time behind other guys, willing to push the ball, willing to throw guys open and take chances. Simpson sometimes, Danny, there's such a great observation about there's some times where he has to see it just that half second.

32:00And again, it's not that he can't do it. I've seen him throw early and get the ball out. It's just one of those things where this is the discussion of the reps and the time and the games played. It's like, man, I bet you if he had one more year of college, that fat would get chopped out, like I talked about with Mendoza. And so I think those are kind of the – you talk about both sides of the mouth. But, man, pushing the ball, his highs are as good as anybody as far as throwing something down the field, throwing his teammate open. I think he throws to space better than maybe he drives the ball, which is, funnily enough, a guy I wrote about recently that's like – That is Kyler Murray, who throws better to space as opposed to driving on a dig route.

32:40So that's why if you see a lot of Ty Simpson's best throws, it's a lot of over routes because you're throwing two out there as opposed to a dig where you're throwing in between two guys and have to drive it. And so there is a lot to like. When I watched him midway through the season, I was like, man, how am I going to get with this guy? Because he is an outlier. But, and again, with Nussmeier and him, it's how much can I push it for these guys that don't meet my weight thresholds and size thresholds? And for him, I had him like in the top 18, I think at midway through the season. And I was just like, man, there's some good stuff.

33:12And then immediately after I wrote that big board, it was like the next three, four weeks, he just fell off a cliff. And I was like, oh, well, he won't come out. He'll go back to school. And then he declared. And I was, you know, now here we are. So I will say it's just those things about pushing the ball. That's the stuff I always look at. willingness to move in the pocket keep the eyes downfield can create enough not a great athlete but just more of a i would say is above board um for athleticism where you can get those simple yards i think mac jones is kind of the the bottom bar for athleticism to create like those just simple first downs like i think that he's a little better than that as a runner um but yeah getting to the negatives this helps me explain the positives a little more but i do think that there is those those appealing aspects to his game where he is willing to try that stuff that's very real and what you need to do at the NFL level.

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33:59Nate Tice:You could take four or five throws of his from every game and put together a cut up. That would make me think he's going to be good in the NFL. The problem is the plays in between those throws. It's like a lack of consistency. And the time to throw stuff is interesting because it's like there's some players where I'm like, damn, he's seeing this so well and throwing with anticipation. And there's some where he's really holding on to it way too long, which is how you end up with a much longer time to throw the Mendoza. He was 2.9, which is on the higher end, 54th. Mendoza was ninth in time to throw.

34:29Nate Tice:Some of that, again, is the nature of the Indiana offense. Very RPO heavy. We've talked about that. And then I think I texted you guys this. The weird thing about some of – Simpson has an NFL arm, but he weirdly sails a lot of throws to the flats in a way that I am not enough of a mechanics expert. Do you understand that, Nate? What is going on there? I have a theory on it, yeah. Just talking about Mendoza a second ago, saying kind of like he got creative to get the ball out. um simpson is a great iteration or a great example of how you can access your arm and simpson has to pull a little bit more into it because he has to use his lower body mechanics so to me baker mayfield has this problem so it's like baker has to really get the whole operation to throw the ball and for simpson if he doesn't get that clean operation that's when i say clean operation hitch step throw then that's when the sprays happen when his feet get a little askew that's when it kind of start spraying or he has to push the ball in his feet it's not a perfect pocket or he has to throw it at a weird angle that's when kind of the inaccuracies start really cropping which do crop up a decent amount with him and that's what it always kind of came to my head with him but um i think the best way too long didn't read his ability to access the arm can kind of lead to everything else unraveling yeah i mean more variables most of almost all of his great throws are from a clean pocket clean base so that wouldn't check out um all right so let's get to outlier stuff so danny you alluded to some of this first of all is the inexperienced uh quarterbacks with 15 or fewer starts first round quarterbacks it is a very small group anthony richardson trubisky haskins size to me is the bigger issue though so ty simpson was watching him i texted you guys he was listed at 62 and the first thing i texted you guys i don't know if you remember this i was like this guy in 60 like i just is the running back next to him that's like the same height yeah he measured at the combine at 6 1 and a little bit of change and 208 is what i have um so quarterbacks six foot two under six foot two pardon me and under 215 since year 2000 rolling out i looked at something i looked at something similar to this so yeah Yeah.

36:40Nate Tice:Modern NFL. Okay. Who have more than 16 starts. So have started at least an NFL season. Drew Brees. Yeah. Russell Wilson, who's definitely not under 215 or wasn't for most of that time. But yeah, maybe when he came in. But anyways, Russell Wilson, Mike Vick, Kyler Murray, that one I believe, and Doug Flutie. Right. That was, I, it doesn't feel like modern NFL. Yeah. Putting that at a different time. So if you expand it to 220, by the way, and it's funny because Purdy comes in just above that, you're adding not really any. You're adding Mark Brunel, which is a fun one. Tyra Taylor, Cordell Stewart.

37:20Nate Tice:So the names I just mentioned, I think I feel pretty comfortable saying if you're of this stature in the NFL, you either have to be an elite athlete or Drew Brees. Right. You have to be one of one. Is that a fair assessment to say? Yes. I mean, you used to go for a saint. Oh, yeah. Well, I looked up something similar to this because when I was talking about Jane Daniels when he came out and JJ McCarthy, I was really looking at this. And Bryce Young. These were the guys I keep looking at. Oh, why did I not mention Bryce Young? I don't know why. I forgot to mention Bryce Young. Sorry. Bryce Young.

37:57No, I looked at something very similar to this, though. And I came to the same conclusion. All right. be a freak athlete or if you're including how my parameters were 205 which i think is really i prefer 215 but like let's say 205 um and and really the always the one outlier is like kirk cousins um so it's like it's freak athletes or kirk cousins and so like for me i uh we're including nuts with this like which you only can be fair and that's way 203 at the combine and again that's why i keep going like there's a lot i like a lot nuts but there's a lot of things screaming at me about alarm, red flag, outlier.

38:33Nate Tice:Everything we're about to say about Tyson applies to us, too, in terms of outlier size. I looked since 2002, quarterback since 2002, to be listed sub-205, so I didn't even look at height, and throw for more than 5 ,000 yards in their career. So that's two 3 ,000-yard seasons, 2 ,500-yard seasons. Kirk Cousins drafted round four. Lamar Jackson drafted round one. His weight has also fluctuated a ton in the NFL. Lamar has gained weight, lost weight, gained weight, lost weight. Jeff Garcia, undrafted free agent, went to Canada first. Aaron Brooks, round four. Bryce Young. Other notable names since 2002.

39:07Tim Rattay, Seneca Wallace, Tyler Huntley, Doug Flutie. Two coaches who work with Garrett Nussmeier's dad, Scott Tolzien and Kellen Moore, and Rob Johnson. Yeah, those guys didn't get 5 ,000. They were under 5 ,000, but those are other notable names. And if you go to 1992. Hi, Detmer. Duck Hodges. Yeah, if you go down to there. Gabriel, outlier, outlier, outlier. Eric Kramer, Dave Craig. Shout out Dave Craig. Mike Tomczak, Ty Detmer. Joe Montana is also the one historical outlier. Joe Montana? All right. Yeah. We're cooking. We're cooking with guys now. But if you look at Ty Simpson and how he plays, you're looking at Kirk Cousins and Joe Montana.

39:44Round four, round three. So, even the guys that are the ultimate outliers. Oh, I'm sorry, but they weren't round one guys. There was a reason that the process led to them being drafted where they got drafted. They were outliers. yeah that that to me is the big point is we're talking and what i said about how much are you willing to spend to take this risk take take up make a bet on an outlier feels like a big bet taking him anywhere in the first round um i i would say his most realistic range is probably somewhere in the late first round right like teams trading up sounds like that's what's happening that's what's not yeah but yes i mean like basically the discussion that we're having and when Nate you you alluded to this like your better judgment is telling you not to really put much stock into Nussmeyer either because of all the stuff we're talking about but guess what you're probably going to get him in a third round or whatever right this is a first round pick this is a premium pick um and so to me it's like even if you don't watch any Ty Simpson don't turn on the tape and you just look at you know the the just the measurable things that we know about him his height weight and college starts and and by the way like the height and weight to me it's not just like a plus he's also started 15 games it's like a multiplier he's really small and exponentially he hasn't had a lot of experience um and isn't a freak athlete it's like yeah so to me it's like even if you don't even turn on the tape and you don't even know what he looks like playing you're like okay well that to me is really really risky taking that in the first round so um and then you know obviously like i did watch the tape and it's some highs and some really lows so to me that is like the case if i was a gm i'm not betting on that panning out and saving me my job i would just let someone else do that but you know desperation is kind of what it is and teams are going to look at the positives and um i mean you you guys mentioned all the outliers with regards to his weight like if you look at the outliers with regards to 15 college starts like it's it's the rim even if you can even if you expand it to 25 starts the list is the list is not that good i mean basically it's josh allen you have cj stroud in there at 25 starts in college so that's like maybe something that you can kind of hold on to but obviously right now he's he's going through it he's he's not had a great couple of years

42:03Nate Tice:also not a size outlier and right and had a better and stroud started as a redshirt freshman game one and play two straight years. Let's talk about homes then really quickly. I'm going to throw a bunch of teams and where because most cases you're looking at potential trade back into the first round a la Jackson Dart scenarios. But let me throw out some names and Danny you go first. Tell me which one you think makes the most sense as a potential Ty Simpson destination. We're not saying which pick. I'm just Just focus on the teams. No, exact pick. How much are you paying Ty Simpson, Danny? How much commitment are you showing?

42:44Let me sell the salary chart here.

42:46Nate Tice:The Jets? No. Obviously not going to do that at all. Sorry. The Jets? The Cardinals? The Browns? The Rams? Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. The Steelers? and that's it right i'm not leaving it that's that's about it okay so just a recap the jets the cardinals the browns the rams and the steelers i guess the dolphins too pardon me that's a team that's been mentioned and the dolphins of those teams danny which one would it's not what ty simpson wants ty simpson should want to go to the rams right well that's yeah that's yeah what do you make the most sense for the team so my kind of my opinion on this it you know obviously it's you said that's obviously what ty simpson wants but i think also it's by far what's best for ty simpson would be to like land in a stable organization that's why i scoff at the jets because i'm just like okay the the big outlier in the draft going to the jets like what could go wrong um and then the other one i guess out um i guess the other one that just kind of stuck out to me is the stealers i don't know how likely they are going to be to do that after what happened with kenny pickett yeah because they kind of it felt like they kind of betted they bet on a late first yeah like a let's go with this guy who's a little undersized and um maybe has some issues but we're betting on kind of like his mental makeup and his polish and things like that obviously he had a really great final season uh with pitt but like and also just for whatever reason he was like in the same building as them so that like helped you know like that didn't have to go far don't make me re rekindle that whole process yeah they love pittsburgh guys let's be really do it i love their answers so to me it it doesn't really make sense for the cardinals to do it at this juncture and their rebuild because they're just going to be putting too much on him and I don't really know how that makes sense in terms of they should just load up and figure out other situations.

44:59Yes, exactly. And that's the same, you can say the same about the Jets because they have a whole bunch of picks. I don't know I forget how many, they have a couple first round picks in 2027. They have a lot of ammo.

45:11Nate Tice:They don't need to take a quarterback. That's why I'm very anti-Jets. I almost want them not to sign Gino just to make sure they stink. Gino might make them too competent. Exactly. so to me it's um today gino's gonna take us to the promised land and people are like which promised land relative yeah uh nate what do you think yeah rams is probably my answer like and that's what's so tough with this because like i just what danny was saying jets i just don't think of that that like teams like the jets cardinals browns even you know stealers are a little interesting i would say you know but it seems like they just want to run it back with Aaron Rodgers and McCarthy, in which I don't want to rekindle on my fifth podcast.

45:52I'm like, talk about that and how insane it is to me. Let's wind him up and go. Oh man. It's yeah. Yenzers are mad at me. No, but it's, it's Rams to me. It was the one that makes sense as far as timeline of player, timeline of team. And I know we're just saying, it doesn't matter what the pick is, but just even where the picks are. Because to me, it's, I'd rather a team like the Cardinals or the jets, or even the Browns take a chance on trading for like Tanner McKee, than selecting Ty Simpson. Because I feel like if you take Tanner McKee with a trade a day two pick, I always say round three, and then Eagles fans go, we're getting around one, and everyone else goes, we're not trading round three for Tanner McKee.

46:29Let's just say round three. But I'd rather them take a chance with that as an extended tryout with a guy that has some vet experience rather than, hey, Ty Simpson, who's kind of projecty, get in there. There's Jacoby Persett and other stuff for the Cardinals. But yeah, so that's where the Rams kind of timeline makes sense to me. The Rams at pick 29 is my, I think, favorite,

46:49Nate Tice:like makes the most sense to me outcome, right? Not 13. 13 they should use to upgrade this very Super Bowl caliber roster because, you know, we didn't talk about Brock Purdy, but you're hoping for a Brock Purdy, right? Well, part of the appeal of Brock Purdy was he was taken later and also Brock Purdy got better in the NFL. But the circumstances that worked for Purdy are similar to the ones in L.A. So you could see that path playing out. I'm not saying it's what I would do necessarily, but it's definitely the one that makes the most sense to me when you look at the team, the situation, all of it.

47:31Well, they traded that pick, though. That's the problem. McDuffie. Yeah, so that was like the big connection. No, no, no.

47:38Nate Tice:The round two pick. Not 29. I'm so sorry. They still have a round two, right? Oh, yeah. They not have a... I'm sorry. I said 29. That's... All right. Hold on. Let me pull up the Rams draft picks. That's my bad. I didn't mean... They probably need to just trade into that. I meant the 29th pick in round two. Sorry. Oh, yeah. Because they have... Let's open up their picks here. Yeah. So pick 61. Yeah. 61. Sorry. That's what I meant. That's ideal range for work. Everybody's going to say... It's not going to happen. Maybe they have to trade that up. but I would not want to. Well, this is the thing too.

48:09It's like, well, quarterback, like, sorry, Mina, but yeah, like we're quarterback just grading too is like, I might consider these guys as day two guys. These guys, meaning Simpson and Nuss and spoilers. I have Nuss just a tad higher. Is that I had, I do. Oh, I thought you guys knew that.

48:23Nate Tice:I can't get there. Yeah. Oh, I can, I can. They're very similar to me. Let's just get, okay, let's just get into Nuss right here. But I was going to say, I had these guys graded higher than Pickett. I had these guys graded higher than Dart. I had these guys graded higher than Penix. These guys graded higher than Knicks. About the same as Knicks. Knicks is about the same grade. Different types of players, but same grade. Those guys went all over the place. Pickett, Dart in the 20s, Panics, Knicks. Whether that's good or bad. And then also a guy in the tier is Dart, Riley Leonard, who went round six.

48:55That's the thing. It's just crazy what quarterback value does and where the range of these guys are.

49:00Nate Tice:All right. Let's hit Garrett Nussmeyer first then before the break because he is. I think you just knew that. I remember you talked. I thought it possible. But so the Garrett Nussmeyer story at LSU in brief, about the same size as Simpson. So he is also a size LR. So everything we just said about Ty Simpson applies to Garrett Nussmeyer. A little bit. He looks a little heavy, isn't he? But in any case, he's short. his 2020 if Ty Simpson is a tale of two halves of a season Garrett Nuss Meyer is a tale of two seasons because and it took me a while to get to it his 2024 tape is quite good and much better than his 2025 tape now that comes with a major caveat that he had pretty serious oblique injury before the season that he then aggravated during the season so he didn't play the complete season and that is going to be a huge part of no no sorry guess my i'm looking at his way is actually easily like the exact same size um the the injury clearly affected him as a player it's going to be a big part of the evaluation for any team that takes him uh similarly to simpson i think he's got like a surprisingly feisty arm at his size uh this is just my read on him uh he is uh i would say a little bit better at making throws on the move arguably than either of the two quarterbacks above him which is the thing that i like um it's a little bakerish not as strong of an arm as baker but stylistically there's a lot of similarities the the thing that is the biggest knock on him is he has the brain of like josh allen at times in baker bayfield's body is how i would put it like 100 he throws very dangerous passes and when i watch him i don't think it's because he doesn't know what he's seeing because he also strikes me as a very smart player i think it's because he thinks his arm is stronger than it is uh nate since you're so high on him you can go first yeah disagree with anything i said like what you know what are your thoughts on garrett not smart and and maybe you can say and danny i'd love to hear this from you where would you take him in the draft okay um yeah it again timing with him like when i talk about mendoza i think nussmeyer too is especially if you watch his throws to the outside where i do think he has a live arm again i in my kind of scouting threshold good is what i would call it um put it as like a standard deviation above average however you want to do it um his timing is just exquisite like it's like that's what really excites me is that he maximizes his arm um i think he's got a nice quick throw motion too like rpos are very live for him and bubbles and screens yeah very snappy um just gets it out quick very catchable ball as well um stuff over the middle like he really throws to space really well and when i was talking about it's kind of different than simpson like i think nuts can really throw the digs and throw the in breakers really well with timing into space that gets him in trouble sometimes because he'll assume things um i i think the best line i could put about nuts and this is what i like the most about him last year he didn't take us i think he only took one sack through like the first 10 weeks he puts a lot and i'm stealing this line from kevin o 'connell and i i love it is that he puts a lot of balls in play he's the josh nailer of quarterbacks well not josh nailer to start this season uh but no just a lot of balls in play where it's just um where it's just a lot of just where it's he doesn't take like a bad play is about to happen the ball gets out and sometimes that ball turns into a not only just like not taking a sack but turns into a first down or more and i think that just sense of not only just timing but just sense of don't make a bad play worse is what i like so much about them especially this year when the infrastructure stunk at lsu outside their monster tight end number 14 um who i'm like very excited about to talk about in a year from now um but he had a high usage role the whole line wasn't great the receivers weren't amazing and it's just like he had to do a lot he changes plays he changes protections he is asked to run a lot of rpos he's asked to do a lot of full field reads and it's just how quick he is as a processor and a quickie is as a thrower in a creative thrower changing arm slots and stuff while also being able to push the ball i think he throws a great deep ball as well i don't know i i think just there's a lot that appeals to me even if there's stuff like age and the weight um injuries crop up for guys like Simpson and Nussmeyer for a reason it's because they aren't the biggest guys and they take a big hit so I just that sense of timing and just that liveliness to him it just gets me so excited Danny before you jump in it is so weird and you to a lesser extent Alabama the Alabama run game and offensive line was a problem this year it is so weird watching an LSU offense without dudes like I'm just watching Nussmeyer I was just like oh my god somebody god make a play all right danny what was your take on gary nussmeyer who is my three if i'm not right same with me i think as nate was talking i just kind of struck me it's surprising there isn't more like hype on him i guess because of especially relative to the ty simpson hype i think because they are closer to each other than maybe some people believe or or think right now um i would i would i've said this on other pod i i would rather have Nussmeyer in the third or even the second than Simpson in the first.

54:27I have a kind of an old inside joke on our podcast about Baker Mayfield that nobody rips passes like Baker. I mean, he just is out here ripping it. He loves ripping passes. He'll be ripping passes until the day he dies. I kind of got that impression with Nussmeyer. He just loves ripping passes. There's nothing better than ripping passes. You're saying like he's smoking cigarettes. Just ripping darts. That's what I'm going for. It wouldn't surprise me if you just see Nussmeyer no-handing

54:52Nate Tice:a cigarette while he rips passes down the field he really reminds me a lot of him yeah the size is also baker that by the way was not mentioned in any of the thresholds we were talking about because baker is a big boy like 225 i looked that up because i was like how big was why is he not showing up yeah um baker played first base in baseball that's what i always like other guys like quarterbacks they're like third base pitcher catcher first base so both simpson and nussmeyer having a Baker arc where it takes some time, right situation, aggression. Because Simpson's pretty aggressive too, Danny.

55:30Nate Tice:Totally. Two things. Number one, how do you grade the coach's son at metric here? Because his dad is an OC in the NFL. I know. Luckily they already took a guy, so we don't have to worry about that whole thing. so you know with both of them for sure it shows up with you know all nfl players but i was just talking joking with um somebody about uh tyson tight tight oh i'll tell you guys about ty hilton's kid and like i met when i did a story on ky hilton when i know we're talking about quarterbacks but it really applies to any position in my mind um when ty hilton was uh when he was with the coles i did a story on him went to indiana indiana spent time with his family and his son who was then eight is now in Wisconsin and I was TY took took me to practice in Miami pardon me because the sun would spend summers there and you watch it for like three seconds I'm like that's TY Hilton's kid it's an eight-year-old one factor than everybody but also like running actual routes at eight like it's just weird like and yeah it just shows up I don't know what to say like Vlad Guerrero's son has the exact same swing as his dad.

56:42That's unbelievable. I talked to an NBA guy that he works for the Nuggets, and he said that that's their number, and he's more of an analytics guy. And he said that's the number one box you can check, be a son of a former NBA player. Yeah, well, certainly NBA. NBA, he said because the locker room's shocked for so many guys once they get that money and they get into that environment. And he said that's why the former players' kids are usually the best. They just act like it's another day. It's another locker room that they're hanging out in. and yeah, Nuss has that appeal though. Like their coaches, that's the thing.

57:15They're going to interview very well because they speak the same language. It's just that kind of, you know, you kind of have that thing to you and I get it. The nepotism thing is the bad side of it. But in this instance, I think it's like more of a positive because it's like there's not gonna be that culture shock of entering the league. I think more for Garrett than Ty because Ty's dad was more college-y. Not that's bad or anything, but Garrett's dad played. So NFL's better, yeah. Duh. No, but Doug played and all that and was very well-liked in coaching circles and all that, too. I think...

57:44Nate Tice:Yeah. But also, he might be maxed out. That's the negative of it. Right. Because it's been... Like, is there more to tap into for an older guy that's been coached up since he was nine years old? Right. Which is a real... That's a real thing. Simpson's funny, right? Because he has, like, limited starts, but he was in the room for so long at Alabama, so it's kind of your weighing compounding factors. Okay. Okay, really quickly. So my take on Esmire is I have him as QB3. I love him as a mid-round dart throw for teams that just need a quarterback in the future. Why not? Like if the Rams don't take Ty Simpson, I would love for them to take Garrett Esmire later in the draft.

58:23Nate Tice:They're beating with him, right? Are they? I think I saw that. The Rams might have been not so big. I'll just say it. I don't want to talk about the other quarterbacks. Yeah. It's slim pickings. I've been trying to scour. I'm looking at Minnesota Moorhead tape. I'm trying to find somebody. Jack Strand, round seven. Let's just do this this way, and I promise the running back conversation will be shorter. I know this has been like an hour. Drew Baller, Carson Beck, Cade Klubnick, Cole Payton, and Taylon Green. Of all of those guys, if you were a team just being like, shoot whatever let's do it throw a dart you know fifth round there later danny you can go first here which one would you be most inclined to just like take a shot on probably beck really okay cool size the musician or

59:24you watching uh drueller he should just go by him i don't know no it's so mean i'm sorry

59:31Nate Tice:watch it be great if he ends up being awesome but oh my god well played he's a frustrating watch he has everything too oh I know everyone just assumed I would love him just show me something and I'm like as soon as his feet have to move off of his original launch point it's dead like the throws go into the ground you can hear his brain like oh it's I want it he really improved last year like our improved so much in 2024 and i was like okay 2025 ride the lightning oh it got worse yeah i know i want to love him but the one i'm out chambliss but then he's not he's not oh i know sorry just give me sorry about that yeah nate you go and then we can keep moving i think just the size arm strength all that stuff you know and by the way like the what you were saying about drew all or in terms of like the next year and everything just fell apart that's why teams like having two seasons of experience plus so they know that it's not just like a small sample outlier or whatever um but yeah i i would probably just take a take a bet on him just because of like the physical makeup and then hopefully he you know because i think some of the question marks have been like maturity and things like that um but yeah and also throwing the ball to players on the other team sure that too yeah who about what about you no but he has tools he does have tools he's way bigger than i realized he was a guy that i've watched for forever uh yeah no yeah beck is just one of those guys it's like as soon as the moment got big he got small and that scares me for a guy that has so much experience um you know day three like again you mentioned all these day three guys and i i was trying to find one like tailing green is a fun dart throw i wouldn't take him to around five and that's maybe around four if we go with the quarterback bump but it's just like and it's he's weird he's more accurate down the field than he is on throws under five yards like i don't know if the stats bear that out but i test he's he has he's what if he has to throw a short throw i have no idea where that ball is going if he has to throw some 15 yards down the field way better accuracy it's weird and we talked about this before the combine even mina because i was like okay he's probably gonna blow it up but it was just he's already worked with bobby petrino so it's not like he worked at like i mentioned josh allen at wyoming with a guy that's never really coached a quarterback.

1:01:54Bobby Petrino actually knows what he's doing, and that's my glass half empty with him. It's like, well, this is all we're getting. But he's an interesting dart throw because he's an absolute freak. Luke Altmyer from Illinois as like a round six, round seven guy, I think is interesting. He's a backup, but there's something to him as just like a solid backup type. And then it's a bit, but it's a serious bit. It's Jack Strand from Minnesota Moorhead. Same thing, round six, round seven guy. The guy's 6 '4", 240, can rip it. and North Dakota State's Pro Day. It was okay. That's why you haven't seen me publicizing it and go like, look at him.

1:02:30It was okay, but his film is a lot more to it. I've watched three games of him now and he actually has a little bit to him. He threw it every down.

1:02:39Nate Tice:Not Cole Payton. Sorry, you said North Dakota State. Oh, Jack Strand. He worked out because Minnesota Moorhead is not going to have a Pro Day. Oh. So he worked out North Dakota State's Pro Day. Cole Payton I couldn't get over the top with. I know. I wanted to because you told me to watch Bryce Lance. A freak? Yeah. I'm trying to go like, what's going on here? I'll definitely get to him as a sleeper when I talk about the skill players. But Peyton, there are some insane throws on tape, but he's just raw. And they run two routes on every pass play. It's very simplistic. Great athlete. That's day three.

1:03:20That's what day three.

1:03:21Nate Tice:elements are just dark throws uh let's take a quick break come back and talk about a player who's very much not going to go on day three uh jeremiah love and then we'll get to the other running backs in the draft but it's really about jeremiah love

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1:05:58Nate Tice:All right. Share my love. here we go again

1:06:05Nate Tice:with the running back top 10 discourse let's put a pin in that and let's talk about him as a player first which I think is important because it kind of feels like people are jumping straight to the running back discourse conversation and treating him as a foregone conclusion that he is Saquon or Bijan or one of those guys and I want to hear your thoughts about whether he actually is. So Jeremiah Love is the lead running back out of Notre Dame. We're going to talk about the other one next. He has your prototypical size frame, six foot. The stats speak for themselves, 6.89 yards per carry. This is one that I grabbed because I thought it would be true.

1:06:56Nate Tice:he averaged 7.3 yards per carry in the second half, which is ridiculous. Second amongst all backs in 15 yard plus runs, top three in just about every metric. The number one attribute of his game, and you will hear this over and over, is how unbelievably explosive he is, particularly when he gets in the open field. It is night-night, and this is a league now where that's something a lot of teams crave. Saquon 2024 is the example that comes to mind, but there's other examples around the league of just super explosive backs um i personally i'll just start here i actually have him below bijon who as a prospect um the difference to me is work inside of a phone booth bijon i just felt had more make you miss as a prospect uh love isn't weak he can run between the tackles and He finishes really well, but he's not a power back.

1:07:53Nate Tice:But more so than that, his shiftiness is best manifested at the second and third level as opposed to, in my mind, in a phone booth. The short area quicks are not comparable. That said, very good pass catcher. I think it's something they can be tapped into more, similar to Bijan. And I think, you know, he wants to pass protect. So he has an all-around back. I really, really like him. I am a little bit pumping the brakes, though, on the generational talk. Like I said, I have him behind Saquon and Bijan as prospects. Nate, why don't you go first? How do you view him? What do you like about his game?

1:08:36First off, yeah, I agree with you. I have him below Bijan. I would have him probably similar to how I graded Jameer Gibbs. But the thing is, I actually maybe even like Love a tad more because you mentioned the patch protection stuff. Gibbs was awful coming in the league, gotten way better at that. And Love is just a tad bigger, you know, and that matters to me. But that is kind of more the tier I look at. I think Bajon was one of the best. I think Ezekiel Elliott's probably, once I've kind of officially scouted guys, is probably my top graded prospect. Bajon's up there. Saquon's up there. Love, to me, is a little bit below that.

1:09:10I like him better than Gentee. Just a little different flavors, but I like Love a little bit more. But a little upright running style. Yeah, he's like a – he runs like a skier. Like it's just like it's very – Yeah, he slums through. He kind of is upright, which is my little worry with him. I would say that's my – so that relates to what you're saying between the tackles. Having said that, can take every touch to the house. Seems like a great teammate. Seems like a great – he's good in pass protection, but didn't always have to do it because the other guy with price can receive the ball. And those are always – those are checking boxes.

1:09:44Legit time speed, sub 4-4. That's how he plays. You can actually see it. And I just think he's just very effective. And I think the name of the game right now is explosive plays. It always is in the NFL, but more than ever now, because of how defenses are playing, call it the Kenneth Walker theory, whatever you like. But I think love has even better vision than Walker does. So that's very appealing. Even if he isn't the bruiser between the tackles, guess what? You can find a guy if you're really worried about that. We're going to talk about one later. Yeah, I'm sure we'll talk about a couple. There's a few of those in this class.

1:10:18But no, Love just checks all the boxes you want. What I consider, what I would call a lottery pick running back. And I'm comfortable taking him high. Now, having said that, that's a different discussion about which teams are picking high and whether they should take him, which I don't think they should. But I do think Love is one of these guys that's worthy, like I said, a lottery pick because he just checks all the boxes that are hard to find at the running back position. Yeah, I agree with all that. I think I would have him slightly below where I had like Gentile last year, I think. And so like, obviously he's a little bit below B.

1:10:52John and Saquon and Ezekiel Elliott in terms of the generational prospects of running back position. I just don't quite, I can't quite get there with him, but I do think again, he's a really good player, really explosive, big plays, home run hitter. And I think the passing game stuff is kind of where he differentiates himself from like a Gentile where he's just much more natural as a route runner as a pass catcher in terms of his hands he has a bigger frame so he has a bigger catch radius um i think you can just do more stuff with him in the passing game in terms of just pure running style i would probably pick genti um in terms of his fluidity and his wiggle and things like that but i mean we're kind of you know this is like parsing little stuff because i think he's a very good prospect um the guy that i comped him to and i actually the two guys that i kind of compared him too and i think this is like a low end and aspiration or whatever but i my first thought when i watched him was travis etn i know that's going to come off and people are gonna be like oh god what but i mean if you look at etn's stats in college he scored like 80 touchdowns super productive yeah and he was really good in the passing game and all that i think i think that jeremiah love will be a better pro than etn has turned into but nate you mentioned it like the upright running style and he he's just to me not quite as fluid as a runner um although he has a great spin move and and that's like something he really utilized he loves to hit it he loves that

1:12:15Nate Tice:he really is like when you watch him his college tape is like a kid playing running back totally

1:12:25especially i mean i okay so like the the vision stuff too is interesting because i think

1:12:31Nate Tice:it shows up again in the open field like behind the line of scrimmage sometimes i'm like a little bit of bouncing you know doesn't see it as maybe as well as like again generational you'd like but then when he gets an open field and he like will set up safety or the limer like he is and he will when he puts a move on them it is over um i think like that his style actually plays really well or is really important for the value discussion, though, because I'm not saying he can't be good behind a bad or even average offensive line, but to me, he is similar to Gibbs, Nate, your prototypical back where if you put him behind a good line, it is gas.

1:13:16Nate Tice:But it's not going to – I don't love it behind a bad line. Great. And not even just – that's true of any running back, but I think his style in particular – Gibbs is a really similar dynamic and that gets us to the value discussion, which I feel like I just need like a three minute video to just hit like, and throw to that. And it's just me doing the same thing over and over every year, but there's a different thing I want. So, so, you know, we talk about running backs and we talk about why teams should be wary to draft them top 10 in the draft or generally. And the first thing is the value, right?

1:13:52Nate Tice:Like the Titans are the team that is being mentioned a lot at pick four. um so just to really quickly hit this your genti is the 13th highest paid running back in the nfl the he makes nine million dollars um the 10th highest paid running backs james cook who makes like barely more than ashton genti meanwhile uh abdul carter who is the top edge taken last year makes 11 million dollars which is 35th uh the 10th highest paid edge makes close to 30 million So the opportunity, the value you get of hitting on a player at a position like pass rusher or wide receiver or offensive tackle is just infinitely more than running back.

1:14:34Nate Tice:This is why a big part of why. The other part is that, you know, when you look at guys taken in the first round of last few years, there are success stories. I would say less so from a team building standpoint than an individual production standpoint. But those success stories almost always happen when the offensive line is in place. Bijan being a good example, right? You know, top 10 running back picks this 2010. Gentry, bad. Bijan, again, team is different, but he, a good line. Barkley with New York, pick two. I think we all look back on that and realize, you know, not the best. Leonard Fournette didn't get his fifth-year option, picked up.

1:15:15Nate Tice:Christian McCaffrey at pick eight. And then Elliot Gurley, Richardson, CJ Spiller. Okay, so this brings us to the teams. CJ Spiller, that's right. He was picked nine. That's right. I knew he was first round. Marshawn Lynch, they traded Lynch to keep Spiller, I think. Yeah, I mean, Spiller was a freak, and I loved him at Clemson, but I forgot he was picked nine. For some reason, I thought he was in the 20s or something. I forgot about that one. So let me just ask you this, guys. Okay, so Gibbs is an example of a success story, but the Lions obviously had a great offensive line already in place.

1:15:48And Montgomery to eat others. And Montgomery.

1:15:50Nate Tice:And, you know, Amon Ross, St. Brown. They had a wide receiver one. Like, when you guys look at the top ten, we'll say top, well, go above the Chiefs because Chiefs are an interesting one. But, well, yeah, okay, let's just do top ten. Let's go above Miami because Miami is the first, like, obvious no-go. And it's not the only, but. Do any teams, based on need, the state of their roster, make sense? Because I keep hearing there's no way he makes it out of the top 10. All right. Danny, you go first here. Do any of these teams make sense to you in the top 10? The only team that I can twist myself in a pretzel to defend here that would actually elevate their team would be the commanders, I think.

1:16:39Because of the quarterback situation, because of what they did two years ago and how everything kind of fell apart last year because of injuries and things like that, I think you could make the argument, the commanders could be good like a really like solid team this year to above average team and therefore a guy like love could augment what's already like a good i i kind of i don't know what the best analogy is but like a running back is kind of like a nitrous oxide booster like if you put it in a already fast car it's going to give you that much more oomph and like you're going to be the fastest if you put it in a toyota corolla it's just going to like rattle and and like fall apart um so to me i guess the only team in that list would the only team i actually like could get behind i think is the commanders any in the top 10 no i i that's what's that's what's hard about it because again they're we we talked we talked about this sometimes but the nuance of it all it's not that i don't think love is worthy of a high pick it's just that in a team building sense i would scream at all these teams and say you have so much more than you need than a running back that i think is a cherry on top to what you have even the guys like that broke out had amazing rookie years like ezekiel elliott that was because of other circumstances of the best high pick an amazing old line with a quarterback at the time romo that turned into dak but yes there was other

1:18:06Nate Tice:things on that team that what that brings i didn't love it but it made sense yeah the the cowboys point brings me to the other thing that I get that gets mentioned a lot which is like well you got to help your young quarterback we are all on this pod cam ward fans titans fans very they all really want your way I've discovered um the when you look back at the young quarterbacks year one or two who broke out and you look at the conditions every single one of them I made a list right now had either a wide receiver one like a legit dude or and this is what you would say with the 2016 cowboys deck prescott an elite offensive line jay and and very few of them had elite running backs to be honest it's it's wide receiver offensive line daniels had mclaurin herbert had keenan allen these teams not had like ekler like who had maybe like i mean um stroud had nico collins kyla murray broke out when they traded for deandre hopkins drake may had neither that's why i got an mbp vote from me um josh allen traded for stefan digs uh joe burrow broke out with jamar chase and higgins uh lamar doesn't count because he is a running game into himself but you could argue hollywood brown's guy for him uh but a great offensive line that great offensive line great point aj brown uh for jalen hurts as well as the offensive line jalen hurts broke out before the Saquon people forget that.

1:19:34Nate Tice:Like it's just not. And then people say, well, he's a weapon. So I sent you guys this, but like, okay, it's not entirely fair to limit this to EPA when you're talking about receiving. But last year, total receiving EPA, Christian McCaffrey ranked 34th expected points added, which is basically looking at every single play and asking how much does it get you closer to scoring a touchdown? It's your most totalistic way to look at value. Christian McCaffrey was 34th behind Parker Washington, who I love. Bijan Robinson was 55th behind Elik Ayuminar. EPA per play, the highest ranked, was Bijan Robinson, who was 85th behind Juwan Johnson.

1:20:12Nate Tice:So, yes, a pass-catching running back is absolutely useful. And if you tell me Kyle Shanahan's coming with him, maybe we'll have a different conversation. But by and large, this is not the best way to add value, not just to a team and salary and all that, But to help your young quarterback, you need receivers.

1:20:34Nate Tice:Tennessee, my dream outcome for them is trade down and get Carnell tape somehow. Or you take one of the edge rushers because they desperately need that. You don't think Wendell Robinson's an ace? You don't think he's number one worth paying$18 million a year? I'm not tight saying that to me. Because he knows Brian Dable's offense? I cannot handle this. His best year. He's basically a running back. He's too small to play running back. I put eight. If I get the eye to eye, he was your wide receiver. He ain't wide receiver one. The dreaded picture. That's the dreaded Mina picture. Don't wear the heels.

1:21:09No, but that's the – Oh, God, don't get me on Wendell Robinson rant because he knows Brian D 'Abel's offense at least. No, but I even looked at – I've looked at those kind of numbers before, and it was basically the best receiving running backs or worth like a solid tight end or like a number three receiver. At best. at best.

1:21:26Nate Tice:CMC is, and stop saying he ain't going to be CMC. Stop it. Stop it. Stop it. He's one of one. I do not, I cannot handle people comparing pads catching running backs. Bijan is the better comp who's a great receiving back. Yeah. Elik Iomanor. A mid-range, a middling rookie A blocking rookie receiver that can't catch. Yeah. To me, a guy like Love would be used, it's almost situationally as a receiver. Red zone designs, third down shot play like how James Cook gets used for the bills. Well, you know, like that's how like a good receiving back is typically used like as opposed in screens, of course, as opposed to, oh, we're going five out doing five out every play with honestly, you could.

1:22:08Nate Tice:I think I think the Giants have bigger needs, but I actually think you can make a slightly better case for that because at least they have a wide receiver one and you've got offensive tackles, but they need interior offensive line. They need more wide receivers they need the spine of their defense so i but that is more defensible to me than tennessee um hilariously i threw up dallas which somehow made everyone angry um but that is because they do need defense the situation which i posed dallas like styles was gone the edge rushers are gone so to be clear but that is that situation satisfies what we're talking about which is you got the receivers you got the offensive line pour gasoline on that baby and like that offense would be oh they were supernova Dallas would be insane I'm already loving what Dallas is building on offense anyways like I'm super high on the Cowboys overall this year relatively um but like love going there is more like fan fiction that I can get behind because I'm like well that's just saying we're gonna win every game we're gonna play every game 40 to 34 and I'm all for it is another team that I wouldn't be angry about Danny are there any teams I mean I think we all agree that some team is going to do something we don't like and do this in the first top 10 but are there any always do you like so minnesota and dallas anyone else that there's one that i'm eyeing that is a very insane one i don't know i this is i i've had this conversation before i have a really hard time figuring out where to put jeremiah love in mock drafts because i think in reality he's probably going to go top 10 to some team that is ultimately making a mistake in doing that but um it's just hard for me to like make that i guess like you could point to a team like the buccaneers who need more juice yeah um what about the ravens if they want that's the one i'm like if you want a's gun and yeah hey the new oc he's ben johnson guy he's not opposed to having two backs back there we go um but yeah i think you know to echo everything i've been i'm sure titan fans probably hate me at this point but i'm like if the titans take jerry i love it's such a terrible choice we are trying we care about cam war we want the best for you yeah yeah i just think it holistically and just if you think about it from a defensive coordinator's point of view you're kind of hoping that the quarterback will just check down to the running back right like that's actually that's a win if that's like how you're putting your offense together like That's actually a failure of the rest of your first two progressions or whatever.

1:24:45You know what I mean? And so it does help, technically, to have an explosive runner in your offense. But I don't think with the way that they're built right now, it's not going to be the type of thing.

1:24:56Nate Tice:Do you know how many stack boxes they're going to face with Wanda? We see this every time with these highly drafted running backs that go to bad teams. It just doesn't move the needle. Why I hate the Wandale signing even more, because if they sign Love and they're like, we're going to be a run-first team, he can't block. So we just... Now you're getting a guy that's like... That doesn't make sense. He's too small. Okay, well, we'll see. Really like Love. I just want to put that out. Really like him. I want the best for both, the team and running backs. Just these teams. Even the Commanders, they signed two running backs this offseason.

1:25:30I would have been fine with that room. With Bill Rashad White and Jerome Ford, I'm good with that. Go with that.

1:25:35Nate Tice:I like the Titans and Commanders backfields. One would think New Orleans and Kansas City took them out of the love business with their signings. But who knows? Because apparently just NFL teams cannot help themselves. They can't. All right. Is Jadarian Price, who is the number two running back at Notre Dame, is he your guys? He's my running back, too. Is he also your guys' running back twos? He's two. And then I have like a real close three. But he's two right now. OK, so let's talk about him. also well built little bit smaller than love but very prototypical frame similar to love in some ways in that he is incredibly explosive I mean when he plants his foot he goes he is classic zone running back to me which makes him an interesting fit for a lot of teams not picking in the first round or beginning second whatever the so the explosiveness is the number one thing the long speed absurd the uh pass catching i think the biggest question mark with him is just usage small sample size right um he didn't get a ton of run he didn't get a lot of receiving reps so there's a lot of speculation required he also was not as efficient as jeremiah love i have him at 45th and success rate it's not terrible but so I think there's a little bit of a risk reward here with him Danny you go first here I I I think the reward to me is what makes me think he's worth it naked not in the first round but yeah yeah I do think if you get him in like a good zone blocking scheme he could be really effective yeah I think so too I I bristle at the like people giving him to the Seahawks in round one I'm like oh god I mean I'm not putting in past Schneider at this point, but that would be, I think, a gross misuse of resources.

1:27:29I do like him. I think he's got a natural feel for picking lanes and weaving through the defense, and he has acceleration to beat pursuit angles. He's really good. There'll be a guy that has him dead to rights, and he'll just run around him. So I do like that about him. To me, when he measured in, I think he was 204 pounds or 3 pounds. I was like, that's what? I thought he was a bigger guy than that. I thought he runs like he's a bigger player.

1:27:57Nate Tice:Yeah. The guy, ironically, the guy that kind of came to my mind when I was watching him, and this is not like a great one-to-one comp, but was Zach Charbonnet, where just downhill, hit the gas, and weave through the defense. He's kind of very physical, ups the intensity. He doesn't have a lot of chops in the passing game right now. But, I mean, he also had some kickoff returns. and I don't know. He's a good athlete with a good field space. He is an electric returner. Two touchdowns on kick returns. That's valuable in today's NFL. I think it's valuable and it tells you that kind of natural playmaking feel for manipulating space and finding the right rush lanes.

1:28:45I think that's kind of like what I see when I watch him. So I think he has the potential to be a good early down back i think it's a question mark whether he can be a third down guy like a three down back um but he he just looks to me like a rock solid contributor on you know in the path in the run game and then maybe in the kicking game yep that's that's how i look at him it's like again he kind of checks a lot of boxes even none of them none of them are overwhelming um but yeah i i you kind of were hitting on this a little danny is that it's i I like how he tempos his runs and like, he's really good at setting stuff up and it's anyone that's ever played Madden.

1:29:19This is what they try to teach you to do is you don't hold the turbo until you hit the whole image. Yeah. Yeah. You're supposed to wait and be patient. He's very good at that. Like a slow to the hole and then run through the hole. And I, I think that that's like the stuff that's appealing to me, like where he kept winning me over. It's like, you know, cause I don't think he has any overwhelming aspects of his game. I actually thought he was going to be bigger than he listed it. I think he's gonna be like two 10, He looks big. He looks big, and he runs a little bit bigger than that. He's got good contact balance.

1:29:47Again, he's going to always need another guy in the backfield. That's how I always look at him. But if you have a 50-50 split, he's a good one because he can do so much for you, and then you have another guy with him that's kind of like what he did in Notre Dame.

1:29:59Nate Tice:I have a favorite spot for him. Houston with their second pick in the second round, so it would be pick 59-27. So Marks, Montgomery, and Price, that's a good backfield. I would like that. That's a roster that I think you can hit your more glaring – they don't really have a lot of needs, to be honest. Houston roster is very good, obviously, you know, about the defense. But I think you could address, you know, maybe offensive line in the first two rounds, and then I would love that there. I would love for them to get a little bit of juice to go with Montgomery. I think all the other teams we mentioned make sense, though.

1:30:34Nate Tice:I would also – the Broncos are picking right after Houston. That's another team that would be kind of an interesting one. But yeah, Baltimore, Tampa, Minnesota, the teams we mentioned all make sense to me. I know. 49ers don't pick until 58 in the second round, but like 49ers is a spellback for CMC. That would be really fun. Yeah. Kind of a nice – kind of could do a lot of stuff that they maybe asked for. And also this is like kind of bring up like a running back two – we could talk about those quarterbacks. But running back – like he's running back two, but it's default, the two sweetest words in the English language, that it's like where I look at it and like I was looking at last year and I'm looking at how I rank guys and he would have been one, two, three.

1:31:09He would have been like running back seven for me last year.

1:31:11Nate Tice:Wow. I know. And I was kind of like, yeah, and it's just that's how it goes. It's like that's all. And he's in my top 50, and I had seven running backs. I think I might have eight in my top 50 last year. But I think that's just the differences of classes. And I think teams that didn't get one last year kind of going, I could have had Kyle Monungay or Tootin or one of these other contributors that all these other teams, Woody Marks that all these teams got around in day three. Scadaboo. last year's class was genti travion omarian hampton caleb johnson who didn't work out yet uh quinshawn juckins who looked fantastic he got hurt but dylan sampson basial tootin rj harvey scadaboo uh jordan james guy who ended up with the niners um yeah yeah there's and then all i had devon neal real high other guys like that in today's world planning ahead isn't always top of mind but not having life insurance can leave families facing difficult financial uncertainty during already emotional times.

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1:34:13That's V-Y-V-G-A-R-T MyWay.com. And talk to your doctor about VivGuard Hattrulo. Brought to you by Argenics. Scatterboos feels like a good transition or segue to the guy who I think Nate is talking about when he says he has somebody at running back three, Jonah Coleman. Yeah. that does hear time out right yeah more more devon neal maybe he's he's the guys that i i'm a sucker for this runner runner type of runner and i try to gauge it properly but again this is this class like he's around three grade for me he didn't make my top 50 but if i went top 75 he would

1:34:47Nate Tice:have made that if that makes okay so let's get into him as running back three um i think after so i have personally love price and then pick your flavor is kind of where i go like it's like what do you want? Coleman is a very specific flavor. He is, you know, your squatty body. He is muscle hamster, five foot eight, two 20 built like my son when he was two, before he started stretching out a little bit. Um, I'm a Huskies fan. So I've watched a lot of Jonah Coleman. Danny is too. He is, he, I sent you guys a clip. I wrote, I can't quit him. It was in the Illinois game. It's third and two and he picks up three yards and I was like, give me this he just bounces off guys and then he just runs right through the edge and uh just lowers his pads and just knocks him over uh he is very different from the two guys we've been talking about he is not explosive uh but i do think he is not as what he's not just a grinder he he's not going to get you 20 but he'll get you 10 and i think he can also catch passes and pass protect so nate what do you like about him why do you have him so high yeah the those last couple things that you just said there is why i really like him i think he's just a complete back um as far as that he can do a lot of professional things and pass protection is one of them and guys can get learn pass protection but the fact that he can do that day one is a tip you know a feather in his cap uh i'm very realistic that he probably runs a four six and that's his biggest negative is that he's not a burner, but he gets on base.

1:36:21And that's the best way I could put it. If it's blocked for three, he's getting you four. He might not get you 14, but he's getting you all of it. And I think he is talking about tempoing runs. That's why these squatty guys that have this vision like this, and he can get to third gear real quick. He's just getting to fourth and fifth gear. But one to three, he has that shiftiness to get that, and he gets that first down. You know, and there's some games like Ohio State, he gets to the edge where you kind of see a little bit of burst, but being realistic. and that's why I consider him a round three guy, but these are the type of guys I like because this is going to be an efficient runner.

1:36:53A team that runs a lot of duo and a lot of downfields. The Rams won't probably take him. They already have a couple guys like this, but a team like this that now the Jags don't need a running back either, so I'm losing my point here. But teams that need a guy between the tackles.

1:37:07Nate Tice:I'm looking at the fourth round or third round. Yeah, third, fourth round for him, I'd be very comfortable. Any pick after 60, I'm comfortable taking him, being realistic that he might not go until round four because the league likes speed. But these guys, he just gets on base. That's my best way I can describe it. And an efficient runner that if you're understanding that he's not going to be a burner, that's fine. Like Manungai last year actually is a decent comparison for him. Manungai went round seven. Coleman had a little more production than that. So, yeah, it's just a skill skit I just always, always like with my running backs because I just think these guys translate to the league really well.

1:37:40It's always funny to watch a running back like him where you look at his body type and you're like, this guy could play exactly one position. You know what I mean? There's no... Really in sports. Ever since he was a little kid, the only position this kid could play is running back. But yeah, I mean, he's... Scataboo is the same way. Oh, that's true. Yeah, that's a good point. But he reminded me of... And this is, again, this might be in the eyes of the beholder. He reminded me of a Bucky Irving type player where Bucky Irving coming into the league, I remember watching him like, this guy breaks a lot of tackles.

1:38:18He's pretty elusive. He's got good vision. He's creative, but he's small and slow. And that is not something the NFL typically likes. And by the way, it's not something that usually works in the NFL. We see both sides of it in his two years. Totally. And last year, he was pretty terrible. Basically, all the metrics you look at, he was awful, but he was hurt. We'll see what happens in year three. but i think the other guy that it kind of reminds me of and this is you mentioned the rams he reminds me of kyron irving uh sorry kyron williams um like a thick version of kyron and i remember kyron coming out it was like you could swap over everything we said just everything you just said he's like yep yeah good in pass pro great protection he's like the best pass protector

1:39:01Nate Tice:in the draft he's good in the receiving game yeah he's just slow not exclusive yeah and it just to To me, it's like Coleman, there's plenty of worlds where Coleman doesn't do anything in the NFL. We forget about him in two years. But if the right coach gets him and really likes him, he's the, you know, he's never, I think he never fumbled in college. He had like one drop in the passing game. He's going to be, if he gets matched up with the right coach in the right scheme, I think he could be a very productive runner in the NFL. But again, it's just kind of like there's a million like versions of this where he just kind of gets buried quickly and never emerges.

1:39:38Nate Tice:The nickname that he gave himself, apparently, was Mr. Unstoppable, which is just an incredible nickname. I mean, he was at the combine. His sound clip kind of went viral because he was like, someone asked him why he takes pass pros so serious. Oh, yeah. Are you serious? Quarterbacks are making 50 million a year and I'm making like two or something. Like, what do you think? What do you think is valuable? I'm like, he knows where his bread is buttered. I also like him as a runner. I'm trying to not let my Huskies homerism bleed into this. because talking about a third or fourth round yeah totally i think he'll probably go fourth round um yeah but i think to me i'm like he's he's elusive he like you mentioned he is really patient where he'll almost like hide again this is the body type thing almost like hide behind his blockers for a second and then kind of squirt through like a spot in the offensive line um i don't know he just to me looks like the type of guy who can be productive in the right system i I don't think he's going to be a superstar.

1:40:34He doesn't have the juice to be like a home run hitter, but he just looks like a good running back to me. Yeah. Doug Martin, who I joked, I used the muscle hamster nickname for Coleman, but that's his original muscle hamster. He was 5 '9", 223, and he ran a 4.55. Yeah. Kind of similar to Coleman a little bit. He hated that nickname. He hated it because it was his girlfriend, I think, had the nickname. And then the teammates then called him that because he defended his girlfriend. She was a gymnast. and then Blake Corham you mentioned Kyron Williams but the Rams have a specific running back style they like Ronnie Rivers was the other guy they had they all run the exact same so yeah

1:41:11Nate Tice:but your point about like yeah duo teams um the league starts running that more and more there's a there's a few teams the Lions need a power back with Gibbs now oh yeah oh that's nice one that's the exact style they like um are there any other backs that you guys particularly like We haven't talked about Emmitt Johnson, who's a race-shifty Nebraska back. Your other fandom? Yeah, yeah. Other fandom, that's right. Mike Washington is the guy who ran a 4.3340 at 6 '1", which is insane. However, tape's just okay to me. I kind of feel that way about all the other backs. There's things about their game I like, but no one else really.

1:41:55Nate Tice:seeing the Penn State backs, Claiborne and Wake Forest. Nate, is there anyone that you would want to highlight that you have a soft spot for? Got to mention Washington just because he has a weird background, you know, from Buffalo, not extremely productive. Then goes to Arkansas, has a big year this year. Him and Taylor Green was pretty fun backfield in the imperfect, but fun backfield. Grew on me the more I watch, but these guys can be confusing for me because there are times he misses a hole. There's sometimes he's not a creative runner. but then there's times where he looks incredible because he's so freaking fast and can just run by everybody and he's big and can kind of maybe run by a safety that bounces off of him um i just kept describing him as a downhill runner i just didn't know else to describe him but um again he's probably gonna make my top 100 but he's more to the back end of that 100 just because i do think there's some running limitations where he does hit the turbo button right away um and doesn't always pace his runs perfectly like i don't really like him on duo i like him in zone schemes though yeah where he can cut and go he has some similarities running wise they are not built the same at all to tevin coleman um coleman was about 200 pounds he was a little skinnier but as far as how they're in a zone scheme where they just cut and just go and get downhill and usually zone guys are better it's vision that opens that up but more it's just about getting north and i think that's why i think washington i didn't really like johnson from Nebraska that much even though he was super productive the yeah the Penn State guys I liked Allen a little bit more but neither I was I loved Allen had some similarities to Rashad White in a good and bad way where he can totally just make that last guy miss ever just a little slow just can never make anyone miss on the second level he gets the five yards I'm like this is my guy there he gets tripped up again there he is stumbling over his feet again and it's like I I only can get so high with him.

1:43:48Like those are top 100. I've already listed though. Like Washington would be my last one. So I maybe have four. All the rest of these guys, I consider day three. Roman Hemby from Indiana is like a round five guy. I kind of like as a tough runner, great in protection. Adam Randall from Clemson is a converted receiver. I think I like as like a day three dart throw can be kind of an interesting kind of, I like the converted receivers to run back archetype, even though like Rashad White actually is one of those that I kind of fall for those guys, but he's actually a lot faster than his time speed as well.

1:44:18Jamari Taylor from Virginia, fun little compact guy that probably will only last in the league for three years because he's too physical and he's not that big. The Freeman. Oh, God. What's the first name? Why am I going to be on Freeman? Yeah, Devontae Freeman conundrum where he runs so physical, but he only lasts for three years.

1:44:36Nate Tice:Devontae Freeman and Tevin Coleman mentioned in one pod. I did the DB pod and mentioned Antoine Winfield Sr. and Antoine Winfield Jr. lack of originality for me but again these guys are all i like don't love any that could get over the top even claiborne from wake forest speedy but not big i just couldn't get over the top with any of these guys yeah i i like the randall shout out i was watching him yesterday and he's kind of like an interesting one again i think this is a indictment might be a strong word but it's an indication of what we're seeing in terms of this draft class where you're taking some some dart throws on day three guys that might be interesting randall is big he's 6 '3 232 um and he i think he has some natural running ability you can tell he's a receiver because some of the ways that he like he's just like truly learning how to be a running back it's you know what i mean and where it's like it just looks a little clunky um but he breaks tackles he's he's big and physical he's not really he's not soft which i like uh you know because receiver you think receiver he's like oh he's not going to be that physical.

1:45:40But I thought he was pretty physical. Emmitt Johnson watching him. The one guy that kind of came to my mind is like a top end comp for him. And this is underselling it maybe a little bit, but like a Kenny Gainwell type of player where useful in the passing game. You know, and he's, he's really shifty in the short area. Like he makes guys miss in a, in a phone booth. Like he'll, he'll get the ball, be at a dead stop, dead to rights. And he'll just juke around a guy, but he doesn't have the greatest long speed. I didn't think just a little bit. Yeah. He's a little skinny or small. Yeah. So he, he's the type of guy.

1:46:13And again, this is kind of like the whole class. If he, if he gets on with a team that really likes his, his skillset and uses him well, like gain, well, it took like five years for him to, or four years or whatever, how long to kind of catch on and do his thing. Um, I could see Johnson being that, in that mold. I like Mike Washington too.

1:46:30Nate Tice:I think this conversation is a big part of why I love his draft stock is being not just the running back class, but the class as a whole. You know, like I think, well, I'll talk about wide receivers next week with Ben, but like Tate, Carnell Tate being wide receiver one, who I really love. However, because folks don't view him as comparable to the top wide receivers of recent years, some of them, it boosts, like obviously the Titans need a wide receiver one. obviously the question is is carnell tate worth pick four and that that is something they're gonna have to figure out we'll get to that next week um yeah so next week uh two bits of programming daniel jeremiah is coming on to do a warm room mock draft that drops monday i will throw in some trades this time for him and then uh later in the week ben and i are going to talk about the wide receivers tight ends and some of the offensive linemen in this draft uh but this has been so fun everybody go check out the danny and nate's podcast where they are both doing draft coverage around the clock guys i feel like titans fans are getting mad at us but that's fine we like cam ward we like we want the best for you yeah uh thank you as always to omaha productions kirsten sebecky owen saylor jack foster tucker tush and also uh if you guys watch the show Paradise.

1:47:55Nate Tice:David Dennis Jr., my friend and I who host at my TV pod, viewer discretion, recapped the Paradise finale. And then next week, next Friday, we are going to start with The Boys, which is a show that I love.

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From the publisher

Mina is joined by Danny Kelly and Nate Tice to evaluate the top Quarterback and Running Backs in the 2026 NFL Draft. They discuss why Fernando Mendoza is QB1, if Ty Simpson will be drafted in the first round and evaluate the next tier of QB prospects. PLUS, they analyze Jeremiyah Love’s historical comparisons, which Top 10 team could draft Love, and ranking the rest of the RB class.
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