The Offensive Trends Taking Over the NFL with Dan Orlovsky

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0:33welcome back to the meanie time show featuring lenny here we have a very special guest today somebody who hasn't been on the podcast i think in maybe three years dan orlovsky when was the last time you were on the meanie time show featuring lenny oh my goodness uh it had to be probably i mean three years sounds like a long time but when my brain is thinking like yeah i mean it's it was somewhat early after us starting i don't know we've been together working for like five years now so i would say three years is a good number okay well i feel like i have three years worth of takes to now sort of well oh no so i should be clear today we're not doing a power rankings i've been doing i started the power rankings pods on monday we had ryan clark our other teammate last week i will be getting back to that next week but this week we're doing a very special podcast that I've been wanting to do with you in particular.

1:28And that is talking about sort of NFL offense, like where it's come in the last few years, where we think it's going. We do these roundtables NFL Live where we talk about big trends. And I've been gathering data all offseason, trying to kind of come up with ideas for the next one. So yeah, I'm really excited to discuss this with you, part because as I look back on our round tables like i don't want to say we nailed it but the one that really jumps out is is three years ago so it was in 2022 that we did um our round table on how running the football was back which sounds really obvious but it kind of didn't feel that obvious at the time dan do you remember like why we did that like what was it that sort of led because i think i believe that was your idea yeah statistically that has been really borne out since then i'm Why did what was it that was any particular team or what made you want to talk about that back then?

2:24No, I remember vividly and it was probably under the exact date, but I'm going to call it six weeks into the season or something. And, you know, like everyone always makes fun when I say like, you know, I watch every snap. And so like it just felt like something week by week that I was like, man, it just looks like teams are putting quarterbacks into the center more and running the football more. And I sent a text or, you know, an idea to Mark Eisenman, our producer. I was like, Mark, I think this is something just I could be dead wrong. Can you have research and look at if numbers say it? Or maybe it was you I texted, like, what do the numbers say?

3:05And, you know, we've talked about how we all kind of love when numbers match tape and tape match numbers. And so it was just something that started to look on tape when I was like, man, that quarterback's under center way more than I used to see him under center. And so, yeah, that was, you know, a massive, massive benchmark for the show. And, you know, we've had some since then of four by one and, you know, things like that. So I love getting ahead of things like that. So I'm going to talk a little bit about some of the trends I've noticed statistically in formations and personnel groupings and all that.

3:36But I want to start with running the football because that has continued since then. When I'm looking at like, are teams actually doing this? Are they running the ball more? Are they better at running the ball? you have to really parse out the data because you can't just look at run rates because it's so situational in football right like if you're looking at how often does a team run on well are they ahead are they really good are there you know teams out of so what i really like next gen stats has this stat called run probability over expected which is basically is a team how often does an average team run the football in this set down in distance game situation and our nfl teams exceeding that so it's really accounting for situational football and according to that metric Dan in 2024, NFL teams ran the ball over expected at the highest rate since next gen stats started tracking.

4:21So in eight years, that's taking into account also score time, all of that. So starting there, this is continued. This is not stopped. The other thing I wanted to run by or mention to you, you know, I always talk about DVOA, which is like the efficiency metric that accounts for opponent. So the four best teams last year, offenses, the four best offenses, you can probably guess well actually one of them is a little surprising maybe but what would you say the four best offenses in regards to this just no just generally 20 24 um i'm gonna say baltimore yeah buffalo yep um philadelphia no that was they really struggled in the first half of the season okay yeah you're right that's why i was so critical i'm so baltimore uh buffalo I'm going to throw a flyer out there and say Cardinals.

5:15No, they were actually surprisingly high, but it's Detroit and Green Bay. Detroit and Green Bay. Detroit should have been a yeah. So those are the four best offenses. Totally, you know, counting, passing, all of it. They were also the four best rushing teams. Totally. I want you to compare that to just 2020. The top four offenses. This was Brady was still playing, of course, where the Packers with Rogers that year, the Chiefs, the Bucks, the Bills. Of those four teams, only one was inside the top 10 in running. So I want to pose that to you and ask, do you feel like now you have to be good at running the football to be a top offense in the NFL?

5:53Totally. And I think one of the wild things, or the most fascinating things around this whole conversation is how quickly it changed. like how fast the NFL offense wise changed when Patrick first started as the starter and that's what like six years ago maybe like 18 18 was his first year when he like tore up the league yeah 55 touchdowns and all that it was a spread it out throw it all over the map rpou to death type of thing and that's how offensive football was played it was almost like Like, you know, these teams offensively wanted to spread you out like college does, almost sideline to sideline to create ridiculous amounts of space inside and just kill the inside of that space.

6:47And it was like you have to play offensive football in that time to be successful. Part of it was because defenses started to get so light and athletic at the defensive line, mainly interior, light and athletic at the linebackers. So these freak athletes were playing linebackers. So you had to get those guys out of space more. You couldn't play them in phone booths, really. And it's a totally different league right now. It is a league that is from, candidly, the 90s, late 90s, early 2000s, when it is about being capable and willing to run the football. It is about ball possession. It is about snaps.

7:26It is about time of possession. It is about efficiency in your offense. And that are really old school kind of parallels or parables of football. What I find also really interesting is, so you talked about a big part of reason why this happened. And I think this is back in 2022 when we first had the conversation. We talked a lot about defensive structure, the type of players who are playing defense, the lighter bodies, the emphasis on speed. But then also structurally, this was also the beginning of the too high conversation in response to Mahomes. so that has not stopped at NGS tracks this two high shells still at the highest rate in eight years last year single high the lowest rate light boxes still at an extremely high rate one thing I found interesting is offenses are running into too high at the highest rate also in eight years they're saying hey if you're going to play us this way so my question for you is like at what point do you think defense starts to change another thing I noticed in the stats was safety depth is down so you're getting light boxes but safeties are coming in a little bit do you think that's a response to the run thing or what a thousand percent so i think the butterfly effect of all this was going back to that time of like 18 19 20 and all that it was spread out throw it all over the place all those rpos the counter and this really started almost when the eagles won the Super Bowl against New England with Nick Foles.

8:54They just ran RPO every play. And so then the counter to this defensive stuff was, well, we can't play zone that much because the RPO was built to kill zone. We got to play more man. And then man started to get ate up by athletic quarterbacks. So then it's like, well, we're not going to play a ton of like traditional zone. We can't play man that much anymore. We're going to play these shell defenses and maybe match stuff when it comes to the coverage. And it's interesting to see, like when I first came into the league, our RPOs, our check with me's were often one high or two high defenses. A quarterback would get to the line of scrimmage.

9:39We would have two play calls in our huddle, in our headset. And if there were two safeties, we would more than likely run the football. If there was one safety, we would more than likely throw the football. That's kind of what's happening. I think the evolution of it is this, Mina. So like the defenses got lighter and more athletic. The answer now, and we will see it. I don't know if we're starting to see it totally yet, but we will start to see it is teams will start. And I feel I've felt this way for up a couple of years. They're going to start going back to bigger defensive tackles. Like the guy, the defensive tackle that can hold up a double team is going to be, again, a mandate.

10:18I think the linebackers will get bigger. We're starting to see that a little bit in the NFL. The need for them to be like those run-stopping linebackers, I think, will get back. I honestly think the two things, and I would love to get an RC's perspective of it, is corners that are willing to tackle again. You know, a couple of years ago, it was like, find cats that can cover. And now it's like, you have to be capable of tackling at the cornerback position. Put a pin in that when we get to formations, because I've been thinking about that. I have a note right there for it. Yeah, right. When we get to condensed formations.

10:57But I think you're right. I think like for defenses right now, they're still making the calculus that stopping the pass is still more important. Right. And because even success rate for passing is down. It's still higher than running. those lines haven't crossed yet and defenses are like are happy still to take away explosives sometimes at the expense of getting run on but when you look at the top four offenses in the league and you consider okay yeah but you're gonna have to stop the run game of a buffalo a baltimore a philadelphia detroit you do that risk reward and you decide okay well the risk of explosives is more important to us you do risk not getting the football so it might be more about personnel to your point than it is about changing the structure of the defenses yeah and i also think like you'll see more and more we started to see it last year where there's so many different things that defenses now have to do with their fronts or their stunts or how they try to get numbers to help in the run game to also protect against some of the past game stuff i also think and this again was a thing years and years and years ago, we'll start to see it as teams defensively, identity wise will completely change in the red zone and different parts of the red zone.

12:18Like the old adage of give up the yards, not the points. There is the reality of like, okay, we're, we're just, they, the whole thing was, you know, coach Belichick was notorious and famous for like trying to outgrind offenses and quarterback. So, you know, giving them, you know, some, some yardage 20 to 20 thinking one you'll make the mistake at some point two you'll get a penalty to set you back or three that they'll buckle down and force field goal attempts and so like you would play against those really good defenses this was baltimore this was pittsburgh this was new england and you would get into the red zone and you'd be like i have no clue what this defense that you're in is right now you haven't shown it all game you haven't shown it on tape so I think you'll see even more growth of that in the league.

13:09I wanted to bring up another trend in addition to teams running the football more, running the ball well. So I was looking at all the different personnel groupings to see what's up, what's down. So it's funny. We did a thing on 21 personnel, but that actually went down a little bit. I think that really has to do with teams like San Francisco, losing McCaffrey, you know, the Dolphins, teams that had sort of skewed that. But the one grouping that was up and up at historic rates was 12, two tight ends. 12 personnel in 2024, teams used it at the highest rate since True Media started tracking, which was 2007.

13:42So increasingly over 20 % now, with some teams really stretching that. We are just coming off the heels of the Steelers trading for Johnny Smith, by the way. That could be more like 13 personnel with them. But do you feel that the use of more and more 12 personnel is for kind of similar reasons, frankly, to what you're talking about with teams running the football? A hundred percent. I think it's it's attached to wanting to run the football more and having bigger bodies on the field. I also think because it was trending to becoming such a matchup league, it's really, if we're being honest, the only position offensively that I could put on the field that dictates to the defense what you put on the field.

14:27That's somewhat abnormal. Like, yes, if I put seven offensive linemen on the field, that certainly, but that I can run 90 plus percent of my base offense scheme wise from that personnel. That's the only position that I could dictate to you as a defense. And when it comes to, OK, we as an offense, we want to be able to do both things, right? Run it and throw it. we have two good tight ends that both are 50 50 maybe 60 40 with their ability to run block pass protective needed and be a viable pass catch option when it comes to the studying of defenses if we as an offense look at you and go well like baltimore is the perfect example we've talked about this yeah if you are a team playing the ravens and they put mark andrews and likely on the field, you're in a really difficult spot if you don't have pretty high end personnel, because both of them are capable run blockers and both of them are capable pass catching threats.

15:28And so the reality is, and it's simple, it's just very difficult is who do you put on the field? And then how does the down and distance affect who do you put on the field? And so, yeah, I totally think that it's about wanting to run the football and wanting to control to the defense who they can put on the field because i want you like offensively mk like i want who i want on the field for you as a defense like i want to create those matchups and take advantage of them yeah i i feel like you said competent run blocker or you just like good enough i think that's such an important piece of this with your tight ends there are i think i think a blocking tight end right now is maybe the most undervalued thing in football 100 % from the commanders this offseason, and I was watching this dude, John Bates, who I don't know if we've ever said the name John Bates on NFL Live.

16:19Very good blocker. He blocks his ass off. Yep. In Minnesota, you have examples as well. Munn, Oliver. A lot of these good offenses do have a guy who can block, but to your point with Baltimore, Andrews is fine, right? Likely is a glorified receiver, really. But that's not true. He competes. But my point is, you just, defenses are more, almost overwhelmingly going to play you light. with 12 exactly teams if you just have a guy who can block at an average level you're like you're just really compromising them and i don't think defenses have really i'm trying to think of like a defense who has figured out you need like a big nickel like a kyle hamilton you need an awesome nickel three safeties type of thing that but you that that's the thing is like how many defenses have the ability to play both and feel that it's you know 50 50 to play both the run in the past when those teams are putting that 12 and then the trickle down effect and again we talked about it and i don't want to get the trickle down effect was like some of the four by one stuff like these teams would get into 12 and they would then get into a four by one formation and then again we would talk about on nfl live is like all of a sudden i'm running the football at 190 pound nickel and I have a 320 pound offensive lineman blocking them.

17:38That's what Minnesota does at times. So that's what Green Bay like that advantage us as an offense. And so I just think it's it's the teams are, you know, really offensively trying to take advantage of how much of a premium has been put on speed and athleticism in space. There's two teams I want to bring up to you as we wrap 12 personnel, two teams. One is Cincinnati. This was a quiet evolution of the Bengals that never used anything but 11 the first few years of Joe Burrow's career. And you bring in Mike Gisicki, but then you also have Drew Sample, who's their blocker, Eric All, who played before getting hurt.

18:15And not only were they good in 12 personnel, they were actually good at running the football out of it, which otherwise is not a good rushing team. They found something there. So put a pin in that. The other team I want to ask you about is Buffalo. I keep waiting for it with Buffalo because it feels like okay this Bill's offense now we don't have a speed at wide receiver we have a dominant run game obviously a quarterback is a mutant I keep feel like we keep waiting for them to have that sort of heavy personnel diversity obviously they do the six offensive line stuff and it just don't you feel like if they could do that the way some of these other offenses are it could take that offense to a different level in terms of compromising defenses 100 I think it's a little bit on both those guys have to stay healthy at the same time both and Knox.

18:57And I think if we're being honest, King paid probably has to take a decent step forward. You know, like he is, there's, there's an expectation level that he's got to become, you know, Knox is proven to be a good player. So yeah, I would love Buffalo to do it. Uh, I don't know, you know, King page got to take a step and he's got to stay healthy enough to get capable of it. But I also appreciate them going. He's not there yet. And we will go with the sixth offensive lineman thing was kind of 12 in a way it kind of was it was an obvious like a heavy 12 I guess you know a big 12 because it was such a blocking emphasis rather than a pass catching emphasis but I totally agree that it would it would diversify in a way that would be less predictable what do you think about Cincinnati doing it a little bit more I think I remember early on last season complaining about Cincinnati so much because I was like this offense is dead You can't run this 11 personnel shotgun RPO offense anymore, you know, because that's kind of what they were doing.

20:00And I give them credit that they started to do it more, the 12 personnel. It allowed them to put Joe under center a little bit. It allowed them to run the football a little bit, to your point. You know, there was a reality that they were just catch and throw offense so much. And there was the stress on their offensive line. So I think of it this way, like MK, I was thinking, and we're going to get into a little bit with the formation stuff. If you're not as an offense in the league, there's 32 teams. If you don't have some remnants of the. scanahan world and again we're going to get into it i really believe you're playing catch-up and and unless you you've got some different stuff at quarterback but i really believe you're you're playing behind at quarterback that that's going to lead to some struggle if you're not creating run pass conflict exactly in some way if you're if you're you're not it's it's not about po and patch and throw and take advantage of the space in the middle of the field anymore it's not it is run past conflict try to create explosive plays in usage of that and then take advantage of the space on the perimeter not on the inside right and that of course brings us to formations um which we can just talk about now yeah so i mean the we have you and i have talked for a couple years now about how formations are getting more and more condensed.

21:36And this is obviously a Shanahan trend that's been going on for a while. But this data is really something. So offenses used condensed formations at the highest rate ever in the next-gen tracking era last year. It's consistently gone down, down, down. They also measure the average formation width, and it was the lowest it's ever been. And spread offenses are the lowest ever. So it's very obvious this is a Shanahan league and we've seen that tree proliferate around the NFL. But rather than just, you know, say, OK, coaches are why it's happening. I want to talk to you about like from a football perspective, why this is happening.

22:15What does it do to defenses that makes life difficult for them? So I think it first of all, I think it's important to point out when we say, you know, like strung down or spread out or condensed, like spread out was kind of what we were referencing before. or just for your listeners, like almost sideline to sideline, they're 53 and a third with sideline to sideline. So just trying to spread that out and create that space by forcing the defense to spread out. It's gone to the opposite. When you say condensed formation is you're trying to almost shrink everybody down closer to the football. So one, why are football teams offensively doing that more?

22:54I think number one, I counted this morning. I think there's 20 out of 32 teams that have some attachment to Shanahan and McVay or run stuff that comes from their world. So you're talking about two thirds of the league, essentially. And that's the premise of their system is drinking you down and then creating visual chaos. So one, just teams attaching themselves to it more. number two when the league years ago went to like so many rpos and so many rpos again that the defenses would counter with man coverage so it wouldn't have to be in that conflict of the rpo or match coverage well the way that the offenses would counter that would be running all these different kinds of stack formations to run crossers and pick plays and getting guys running away from defenders.

23:50So as an offense, you're sitting there going, well, if you're going to play those types of coverages, we want to then get our guys running away from you to take advantage in the pass game. Then the next evolution of that is, well, if that's what you're going to do defensively and you're just going to commit to coverage, we're going to force those people that are closer to the football to tackle. And so that's why you see so many teams getting into these formations in part because we want those people that you have brought onto your organization to just cover, cover, cover, cover, cover, to have to tackle, tackle, tackle all game.

24:29And then I then go get receivers that are willing and capable blockers as well. So that's why you see Detroit. That's why you see San Fran. That's why you see Green Bay. That's part of the identity of that. I love the point you're making about how it basically forces a certain physicality on defensive backs, both tackling in the run game and also in the pass game because you're creating so much traffic over the middle of the field. It's a Shanahan trend, but I was watching the Chargers. I was specifically watching Ladd McConkie this offseason. The way Greg Roman, who's not you know this different thing was putting him in bunches close to the formation creating all sorts of mess and then he was just bullying dudes and they were destroying man coverage with this by the way he's putting him on the inside out of these super super super tight formations i was thinking man like what a useful player to have right now a slot who's quick enough to beat man coverage but tough enough to just body guys and body other spots because of what you're describing, which is he's physical.

25:37He's a physical player. Yeah. And I think that there's been such a growth in what you can do out of bunch concepts. You know, there, you know, bunch was used to be like, you get it in on third down, you know? And nowadays it's, you know, there's, there's such a growth in what you can do out of the bunch in the run and the pass. You know, if you have those willing and capable perimeter blockers, you can get into bunch and on very basic run concepts like very basic run concepts that i don't want to sit there and tell everybody like you're guaranteed to get four yards but you're you're almost guaranteed to create positive run plays and so like that gets back to that early commitment of the efficiency of your offense and trying to get into second and six so like you can get into bunch and this is again attached to the 12 personnel stuff and now like i have two tight ends blocking you know one defensive back and we can run duo or whatnot which is double teams and then that allows me to get into past game stuff that creates matchups or creates picks or natural rubs it allows me to create like from a past game when i have that bunch also i'm almost securing a little bit of an edge for my past protection as well because i can get a chip immediately or a help immediately and so there's a lot that comes out of that stuff positive for an offense bunch formations in 2024 the highest rate ever since next gen starts start tracking it uh that's all downs all downs six all downs cross the league all down 16 percent more than double what it was in 20 2016 was just nine 9%.

27:23So this is something offense, but you're, it's that combined with, of course, and we've been talking about this forever. This is, everybody knows about this motion also being at the highest motion is still going up. That is not, that trend has not abated both motion at the snap for the snap. So you're seeing these two things happen at the same time. You know what offense, like kind of can't wait to watch this year, which I feel like is really tied to this conversation. The Las Vegas Raiders. No doubt. Right. Yeah. Michael Mayer, Brock Bowers, I should have said first, Michael Mayer, you bring in Jack Besch, who's a blocking receiver.

28:00Jacoby gets his hands dirty. I think that offense with Chip Kelly, who did all this stuff in college, is going to do everything you just described in terms of creating traffic and conflict over the middle of the field. Well, I also think, too, like a little bit of the bunch is attached to some of the four by one stuff that we've talked about as well. Also at the highest rate in years. Exactly. So you're getting into these formations in so many different ways. You're constantly running the offensive. Your guys are running somewhat similar stuff or basic stuff. You're just making it look so much differently to the defense.

28:40Could you imagine the Raiders getting into some of those four-by-one formations? And now Geno's not going to be a threat to run the football. but you can go into your bunch formation with your two tight ends one side jenky to that formation four by one and you could run basic zone concepts and also have past concepts that like buffalo does a really good job of building their rpo game off of it and they'll pick the ball out to kinkade and he'll get four yards could you imagine doing that with brock bowers so now gino like that's your triple option that's the modern day triple option again Gino's not going to kill you running football but if Gino's got to carry the ball once or twice in those situations in a game to go get four or five yards like that's going to be easy for him so yeah there's there's just this evolution of stuff that you're forcing the defense to do a lot we started this about personnel but now you're also dictating like leverage and communication and yeah like you're mandating fronts to defenses and that's a lot for all 11 guys to be on the same page.

29:54Yeah, I always tell people, it's base. For me, football and offense is just about numbers, size, and angles, and everything you got at math. And what we're describing is how offenses are so good now at creating spatial advantages and size advantages and numbers advantages. So now I want to talk a little bit about how, as a defense, you deal with this. Let's talk about specifically condensed formations because as we described, they're making corners tackle. You're seeing, by the way, certain corners like Frank Sauce Gardner, for example, incredible cover corner, came into the league, lit it on fire.

30:31He was so good in man coverage, amazing feet, amazing ball skills. And then offenses were like, cool, we're going to get tight and run it. Here it comes. And he couldn't stop it last year. As a defense, what can you do to deal with all of this? Yeah, I think, like, I would say the team that probably does the best job against it is Kansas City and Spags. I think there's a couple reasons. One, Spags is so good at figuring out ways to trigger the edges, you know, and blitz corners and still play with protection. So you have to, I think, number one, there's a reality of you have to have people that are capable, both on the interior and the exterior, of being dual threats or diversified football players.

31:23I think you have to have really creative fronts. Like, you have to, we talked about it last year with Denver. Denver was really capable of handling it because their front is so good. Like Zach Allen is capable of being such a difference maker on the backside of a lot of these formations where you're like, and then Sertan. So like if you have Sertan and Zach Allen backside there, okay. So I think people, I think fronts, I think stunts. And then your ability to have those corners pressure with the coverage element backside that doesn't expose you is a big, big, big deal. corner blitzes or something spags is the should go up the corner but should go up right because when you do when you get into a condensed formation that is the vulnerability you know it's a quicker path to the quarterback for the corner totally like so some of the thing teaching wise that goes on in offenses is if you're a receiver we line up in a formation you're a condensed split and that corner lines up like up over your head and there is a safety that what we call stacks him so like that corners right over your head and that safety stacks him what we would as an offense do is immediately that young receiver or receiver in general his job is to communicate to that quarterback and people like hey alert for corner cat alert for corner cat so there's an alert for it so then now i'm like okay so then i'm trying to see everything and does the picture look like there's the potential for it so then i have to account for it so then that might change who my tackle's going to in the run game that might change who my back's responsible for in the pass game when it comes to protection and it's not like you're going to do it often but your ability to do it and then a corner that can set the edge in the run as well um yeah it's huge it's huge i i think it's never been more important to have a nickel who is versatile and violence.

33:26You look at Cooper DeGene, Devin Witherspoon in Seattle, McDuffie when they slide him inside, or you like a player like Kyle Hamilton, who's a big, Humphrey, Humphrey, who was unbelievable this year in this exact role, purely because of the way offenses are playing. You have to have a guy who is playing close to the line of scrimmage, who's a threat to blitz also at times, by the way, a lot of those guys are blitzers too. Witherspoon's a great example, but also can get their hands dirty, cannot get pushed around by tight ends. I feel like that's a mandate right now for defenses. Old school nickel.

34:00Like that's like, I go back to, you know, some of the best, like Antoine Winfield was ridiculous at it. Like he was, he was, and that's when those teams would knife, what we would call knife stuff where these corners and nickels would play in between and they would trigger and you would still have people. That's kind of one of the ways that like, I guess Tampa who was built, that Nickel would, he would, he was the run guy and the middle linebacker was the past responsibility guy. And so, yeah, I think that there's gotta be, you know, the commitment of the people capable of handling some of these condensed formations.

34:38there's got to be the numbers um that you do you know we we get into coverages where you know cover six is a coverage that we would call when a team plays like a cover two which is that flat corner and deep half safety on one side and then the front side safety and corner would play like a core of the field each it's a zone defense we then you can get teams that are getting into these invert coverages where you know like if i have a bunch to the field you you don't want to necessarily play a ton of shell to it i can run the football on you for four or five yards a clip in that situation so like you can drop the backside safety down but he becomes the flat player and the corner becomes the half field player and so i think you'll see a little bit of growth with teams playing some inverted coverage to get a run support guy down to the football while also not exposing themselves to a non-shell coverage the chiefs do that a bit a ton and yeah like a lot of what we're describing it's not perfect you do leave yourself vulnerable totally to downfield passing contact pounce in particular but because the offenses aren't pushing the ball downfield that much.