The Pats’ Battle with Seattle: A Super Bowl Preview!

8:46Mina Kimes:If you send, when you condense the formation, you go under center, you're allowing me to bring corners and safeties closer to the core of the formation, closer to the ball. And now I can send those players much easily. It's harder to disguise when those players rush against spread formations. So I'm blitzing ever-living daylights out of condensed in the hope that I can get you out of it. And if you want to go and be a little bit more gut, I don't feel your running game nearly as much.

9:05Ben Solak:This is my preoccupation with the Rams and the postseason. I was like, why is everyone not just doing what Dennis Allen did and forcing them out of that? Right.

9:12Mina Kimes:And so it's I will blitz you knowing that I will take some negatives, knowing that you're going to get JSN on a crosser and it's going to go for 17 yards. Buddy, you were going to do that anyway. Kenneth Walker's going to pop a 15-yard run. Buddy, you were going to do that anyway. Every so often I get an 8-yard sack, and now I'm on the forefoot.

9:27Ben Solak:So part of the challenge, though, when Sam Darnold is under center is his ability to roll out from both sides, accurate both sides, and the Seahawks are so able to punish you, they'll flood one side and then it's A.J. Barner wide open as the isolated, whoever's on the opposite side. And they can do that in part because of Darnold's ability to throw on the move. Got a nice arm, Sam. It is actually like, when I think back to what did I get wrong in terms of why they wanted Sam and why he's such a good fit with Kubiak, that's probably the first thing that comes to mind is they probably clearly loved his ability to throw on those design boots rolling both ways.

10:05Ben Solak:So, you know, you're rolling dice a little bit if you're sending pressure. But I tend to concur with you because I just think it's a really tricky matchup otherwise. So Seattle, 12 personnel. The stats are hilarious. I'm pretty good, man. I mean, first of all, they use play action 46 % of the time. Healthy. Which is insane. Actually, four times the amount they use play action out of 11 personnel. So when they use 12 personnel, that's crazy. When they are in 11, which they are a decent amount, near the bottom of the league, right? And when they use play action, throwing out those two tight end sets, they average 13.1 yards per play.

10:46Mina Kimes:That's pretty good, right? You get down the field in seven plays. It's pretty healthy.

10:50Ben Solak:So you hear that in England. And some of that is because they are able to get defenses to put three linebackers on the field, play base, and feast on it. But it's not just throwing on the linebackers. They also get a lot of their explosives. They get one-on-ones out of those looks because they get single high coverage. And it's a lot of two-man concepts, a lot of Yankee, a lot of dagger. Somebody's open. If you tell towards JSN, who we're going to talk about in a second, you're usually able to get one of their miscellaneous other guys open.

11:21Mina Kimes:Yeah, they're fifth in the league, Sam is, in wide open targets 10 yards down the field.

11:25Ben Solak:Put a pin in that because I have a stat on that that I'm obsessed with. So, okay, so back to New England. So if you're New England, you're thinking, all right, well, we don't want to put our base defense on the field, right, because that's just a mistake. So let's put our nickel out there. And New England, when Robert Spillane has been healthy, is largely a nickel defense even against multiple tight end looks. The problem is the improvement in the Seahawks run game in that respect. So this is why I'm so obsessed with, like, first and second down in this game. So the Seahawks run game, I want to pull some numbers because from the last two months of the season, They have really improved, and there's a litany of reasons for that.

12:04Ben Solak:It's not just 12. They've actually really improved their 11 personnel gun run game. It's way better in the second half of the season than it was in the beginning. But when they put multiple tight ends on the field and teams respond by playing nickel, they are just shredding them. In fact, versus nickel generally this season, when the Seahawks run the football out of 12, they, okay, so probably not nickel, just when the Seahawks run the football with two tight ends, they are seventh in success rate. When defenses match that with nickel, which is a decent sample size, 58 % success rate on the ground, which is very, very high.

12:44Ben Solak:So go back to, you mentioned the pressures for sure, but from a personnel standpoint, if you're New England, if you're Zach Kerr, are you comfortable trusting this improved Patriots run defense that we've seen over the last five weeks or so against these multiple tight ends or 21 that they put a fullback on the field.

13:04Mina Kimes:And it's tricky because when they want to get to more base, get to four DBs, they do it by putting a fifth defensive lineman on the field, right? They're a base 3-4 defense. So Kairis Tonga will come onto the field to play the true nose. They'll get Anfernee Jennings, they'll get Jelani Tavai on the line of scrimmage, and they'll have two backers off in Spillane and in Christian Ellis. And that, it's not even like your additional body is a linebacker body. Your additional body is a defensive tackle body. So now you're really worried about some of the tight ends. It's going to be a big Eric Sauber game, pretty much, is what I'm hearing from you in this one.

13:32Mina Kimes:The multi-tight end stuff is huge.

13:34Ben Solak:What does I say here?

13:35Mina Kimes:AJ Barner, Sauber, right?

13:37Ben Solak:That young man can block.

13:39Mina Kimes:Barner or Sauber?

13:40Ben Solak:Well, both.

13:40Mina Kimes:Yeah, I know.

13:41Ben Solak:They're both like true tight ends in that they're anonymous dudes who can block. I mean, they're not anonymous.

13:47Mina Kimes:Barner is a delight. He's so good.

13:49Ben Solak:He's a complete tight end.

13:50Mina Kimes:I remember watching him last year when Fant was on the team and just being like, man, the best tight end only gets to play 20 % of the snaps. Like, this is the guy. And he's been enormously valuable to them. And that matchup on the boundary where it's Saubert and Barner against Anfernee Jennings and Jelani Thavai, who are two, like, big boy outside linebackers who will hit you in the running game. Big, big, big matchup. I think you're going to see them play some base, and you're going to see Tonga get on the field. Like, Tonga's a very valuable player for them. If they don't go base, the issue is that they play Barmore at the nose.

14:18Mina Kimes:And Barmore at the nose is awesome for your pass rush. But not in the running game. Socks in your running game, right? And, like, again, there's a little bit of the Patriots defense. you're going to have to live in a high variance world where like on your bar more at the nose reps when you're in that four down front, you're going to get penetration. You're going to get TFLs. You're going to get second and 11s. It's just when you lose in the running game, you're going to lose pretty far down the field. And so to me, I think you're going to see the base. They're going to play with those four DBs.

14:41Mina Kimes:They're going to run Gonzalez with JSN on the crossers. They're going to run Carlton Davis with Cooper up on the crossers and say, we trust these matchups. Let's funnel these throws to Barner and to Sauber and to Kenneth Walker and make tackles in space. I think that's your best answer. I don't love it as an answer, but you're going to have to honor the running game.

14:55Ben Solak:Okay, so you just said run Christian Gonzalez on the crossroad to JSN. I guess that kind of brings me to the next question, which is how comfortable are you playing man coverage? So JSN.

15:06Mina Kimes:He's a good player. Famously productive.

15:09Ben Solak:Against man coverage this year. I mean, he's ridiculous against everything. Over four yards per route run against man coverage.

15:18Mina Kimes:He has like a 45 % air yard share or something like that. Like he just owns the entire team's passing game.

15:23Ben Solak:No, no, no. It's higher than that. On throws over 10 yards, it's 55%. I got that. There's only one player in the NFL over 40%, and that's Tedderoy McMillan. So dumb.

15:33Mina Kimes:And some of that is because Horton got injured and Shahid was midseason, but I don't care. It's still such a funny stat.

15:38Ben Solak:So it would be a lot easier for the Patriots if they could just say, hey, Christian Gonzalez, you're one of the best man corners in football. You've been awesome this postseason. And it would be easier because, and this is, I said put a pin in the wide open stats. So when you watch the Seax game, inevitably you'll notice somebody's white ass open.

16:00Mina Kimes:Clint Kubiak had coaching job for a reason now.

16:02Ben Solak:Some of that is all the play action, but a lot of it is the gravity of Jackson Smith and Jigba. Sad I love is on throws over 10 yards to any NFL receivers outside of Seattle, the average receiver is there's a 10 percent wide open rate yeah in seattle if you throw to anyone other than jsn over 10 yards it is 20 yeah it is that receiver is twice as likely as the average

16:36Mina Kimes:nfl receiver it's a very good gravity measure right there because of jsn and it helps on

16:42Ben Solak:throws downfield it also helps on the screen game which i think is yeah i mean go back and watch And like in, sorry, I pulled this for NFL Live. Like in the Rams game, there's the Barner throwback where he's wide open because Quentin Lake trips trying to chase JSN. But that giant screen to Kenneth Walker happens because JSN runs the crosser and pulls half the defense with him. All of which is to say, none of this would happen if you could say, we've got one guy, we can handle him, we don't have to worry. Do you actually feel comfortable doing that, though?

17:11Mina Kimes:So I think on some third downs, yes, right, you're going to do it. because you expect JSN to be a lot more vertical and in isolation on those downs. You, like, the Patriots run less man coverage this year than I think people realize, right? Where they were a heavy man coverage team the last couple of years. They hired the defensive coordinator in Terrell Williams from the Lions. Oh, they're going to run man coverage. Really, they run a lot of quarters, and that allows you to play your corners in loose man on the outside, right? Quarters with a highly variable coverage. But against our play action crossers and against our condensed sets, if I'm in quarters, well, I get the safety control down, right?

17:41Mina Kimes:So I can be playing this outside. You're underneath fast, right? Safety is going to come pick you up with leverage. So I don't need to have, as I said, Gonzalez chasing JSN across the formation. It's when you get those vertical opportunities for JSN that you have to decide, do we like Gonzalez with his length and his speed? It's a pretty rare blend where he can be physical line of scrimmage and also run with a guy. Do we like that without safety help? Because all year long, the Patriots, we don't need a cloud safety. We don't need a split field safety. We don't need a safety help for Carlton Davis, Christian Gonzalez.

18:07Mina Kimes:We're fine. This is the real test. Are you going to walk out comfortable saying, we're going to let him take the vertical stuff down the field? Most of the defenses that have had success against the Seahawks get a half-field safety over JSN. And they'll let their corners play.

18:19Ben Solak:I was just about to say, the thing about the Gonzalez question is, I can't point to an example where I was like, this guy blanked him. To your point, there's been games where teams have allocated extra resources to stop him, or they've been very physical.

18:35Mina Kimes:So you look at that first Rams game, you look at the Vikings game, he had like two catches for 27 yards. And then that Panthers game, he had eight catches, but only for 72 yards. It was like nine yards per reception, which for JSN is like the worst day you've ever heard of this year. And on all three of those games, you have longer corners. You have Emmanuel Forbes. You have Mike Jackson. You have Isaiah Rogers. And they let those guys play physical line of scrimmage, and they protected them vertically. And they said, be physical with him, play main coverage, play in the back pocket with him, but we're going to keep you capped, which we're going to allow you to be physical at the line.

19:02Mina Kimes:Otherwise, JSN is so quick out the gates. The moment you miss your punch, he's gone. The Patriots have done the first half of that, where they've let Davis and they've let Gonzalez be physical. right you go and you watch Gonzalez he traveled with T Higgins and he traveled with Drake London and Mika Buka these big receivers and he was just punching him and punching him and punching him at the line but they did it with no safety help because they felt okay with that against Jason's

19:22Ben Solak:such a different receiver he's so fast exactly he's so quick and so I think you're going to see

19:26Mina Kimes:them play a lot more too high and a lot more like two man instead of quarters and once you start playing two man now I'm getting you on the crossers now Jason's running away from Christian Gonzalez so there's you know there's damned if you do damned if you don't when you go against a

19:38Ben Solak:receiver of this caliber yeah i guess to put a pin on this i do think you what we started discussing at the beginning is probably the most important thing which is to me this is just about pressure for new england more so than it is um it is leaning into what you would hope is i mean this is kind of what we thought the you know when we talked about the patriots ahead of the season the thesis for them being the rebuild happening fast on defense was you you have now two an elite corner duo and an elite defensive tackle duo. Right. And that has borne out. Yeah, yeah. And there's been other players who have been good.

20:14Ben Solak:I mean, I love Marcus Jones. Blaine's been amazing for them and the run in particular.

20:19Mina Kimes:The Marcus Jones game in this one is big because if they're having a good Gonzalez day, buddy Jason's getting motioned into the slot right at the

20:25Ben Solak:So that actually, I should have hit at that. Yeah, like so the Patriots corners usually play sides. Clint Kubiak loves moving. Forget the slot. Put him in the backfield. He'll find ways to get the matchups for him that he wants. I guess that just goes back to what I was saying, which is if I'm imagining a world in which the Ziziax don't average 13 yards per play throwing out of 12 personnel, it starts with New England getting negative plays on first down and finding ways to pressure Darnold without compromising themselves to screens and such, but also in the run. I don't know. I just think schematically Seattle has a lot of answers for what New England could do with pressure because...

21:11Mina Kimes:The movement series, the rollout series is really the one to me. Yeah, right. Donald averages a rollout on one out of every eight dropbacks this year. And, like, this is such an easy game to roll him out on because if you are getting five-man fronts, then getting that tight end out fast, they're going to be weak in the flats. If you're getting off alignments because they're playing that quarters, the flats are going to be weak. It's just boot and rhythm, boot and rhythm, boot and rhythm. and then it's boot and counter, right? Like, you know, some sort of a shot play. And they've been, like Kubiak has been nails with those all year.

21:39Mina Kimes:So to me, it's going to be a very heavy rollout game. I wouldn't be surprised if Sam tucks the ball and runs a few times as well. You know, he's not a good runner, but it's enough to keep the sticks moving. That, if I can get Milton Williams and Christian Barmore flowing left to right in early quarter, first quarter, first couple drives, now I can drop back a little bit more reliably and expect them to be a little bit slower out of the blocks.

21:57Ben Solak:Your edges have to play that pretty aggressively. You think about Chase on taking down C.J. Stroud on the boot and forcing the turnover.

22:04Mina Kimes:And for as good as Anthony Jennings and Jelani Tavai are in terms of some of that pound-for-pound rushing stuff, man, these are not mirror-you-in-space sort of a player, right? So you can get things flowing one direction. I think you said the screen game is going to be really important. It's going to be all about slowing down the upfield step of Barmore and Williams. That's the whole game plan is let's make those guys play a little bit slower, a little bit more left to right, and that's going to protect Sam from his worst version of himself.

22:27Ben Solak:New England's been very good against screens this year. Just disciplined team.

22:31Mina Kimes:They're very, yeah, they're not giving up.

22:33Ben Solak:I think the problem is the, you know, JSN, really, his gravity affects those screens a lot. I also think Seattle's offensive line is a very good screen team now this year. When you see them, they're moving out there.

22:48Mina Kimes:So let me ask you this. This is the thing I've been trying to answer to myself. It's, you know, you're the Seahawks offense. You're coming off the third, fourth drive of the game. They are traveling Gonzalez with JSN. They are pressing and clouding him. They're getting brackets on him on third down. You have not yet gotten the guy activated. You need to go to a secondary receiving option and feel like this is the matchup that you want to attack, right? Cup, Shahid, Barner against X, Y, or Z. If not JSN game, then whom game if you were sitting on the Seahawks sideline?

23:15Ben Solak:Well, I like the speed of Shahid against Carlton Davis. I could see him getting grabby downfield on him, putting double move on him. So I don't dislike – if they're playing it that way, I don't dislike that matchup.

23:31Ben Solak:I like Walker in the passing game a lot.

23:34Mina Kimes:That's where my head goes.

23:36Ben Solak:You know, I know you talked about the gravity of the screens and whatnot, but also some of it, like, he is just a really good receiver. It's actually kind of crazy that it's taken them this long to, like, really activate him in that regard.

23:46Mina Kimes:Unbelievable hands.

23:47Ben Solak:He's catching, like, wheel routes 20 yards downfield, laying out for them.

23:51Mina Kimes:As somebody who very insistently bets on Kenneth Walker receiving a lot, I'm really happy with where we've gotten the last two months of the season. I mean, but here's the thing.

23:58Ben Solak:I think like you're talking about – yes, okay. If Christian Gonzalez can do that. I don't think – I just don't – I've been trying to figure out that answer for myself. Yeah, no, I just –

24:11Mina Kimes:JSN over under 95 receiving yards.

24:14Ben Solak:Over. Crazy.

24:16Mina Kimes:MVP.

24:16Ben Solak:I just think – he was actually my pick for MVP.

24:18Mina Kimes:That's the sense. It's him or Eric Salbert. That's clearly where you're at.

24:21Ben Solak:I just – dude, we were watching back some of the plays in the Rams game on live today and the like close up of his routes and i cannot believe how good he is right now i know that's sorry that's like a bore i i just the way he is moving out there the intelligence and craftsmanship of his route running is just unbelievable uh i tweeted this uh earlier this

24:47Mina Kimes:week and wonder your emotional response to it but you remember that one rookie season where 28 of his targets for screen routes.

24:52Ben Solak:I've forgotten that. It doesn't exist to me.

24:54Mina Kimes:They used him so much on bubble screens. I know. And, like, obviously he's improved as a player for the last two years, but it is brutal to think of doing that and now watching him run, like, unbelievable routes. Okay, let me ask you one more question. So, let's say

25:07Ben Solak:New England starts doing that. How much of JSN in the slot do you think we see in this game?

25:11Mina Kimes:Quite a bit. And his, this, I think, is a thing that has been underappreciated this year. 80 % of his routes are out wide. Like, this is, like, that's like a Mike Evans rate.

25:20Ben Solak:There was a crazy next-gen stat, did you see this in their little packet that he's the first receiver to ever lead in yards from the slot and then yards from split out wide?

25:29Mina Kimes:Yes, last year he had the best season of a slot receiver since Cooper Cupp. And this year he had the best season of a receiver in terms of just receiving production since Tyreek Hill. It is preposterous how good he's become. So yes, I agree with you. Probably Gonzalez alone is not enough to stop this, but it's two weeks and it's a lot of defensive of game planning. They're going to have something for him. And then I'm curious who Seattle turns to after that.

25:52Ben Solak:Do you think it's a heavy 12 game? I jumped on that early.

25:55Mina Kimes:So I do.

25:57Ben Solak:Priscila.

25:58Mina Kimes:I'm interested in Elijah Arroyo's availability. We haven't really heard a lot about that over the course of this week. When Arroyo was available for them, they obviously were a little bit more of a 12 personnel team. That obviously coincides with them getting Shahid as well. We have some 13 too. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I would wager that it is that way. But at the same time, I do think that I like, like you said, Shahid against Carlton Davis. And then also, Cup against Marcus Jones. Marcus Jones, whom I like very much, struggles with the bigger, more physical players. So you like your matchups.

26:24Ben Solak:I think it's a really important game for Seattle to constantly have New England and run past conflict. And their ability to do so out of 12 personnel, as I was talking about, the play-action rate, is really important to keeping them on their heels, mitigating some of that pass rush. You talked about it. The boots are going to be big.

26:40Mina Kimes:It's funny because Patriots, offense, I feel the exact opposite way, where every handoff is a waste of time. Buddy, we're shooting. All right, we're not messing around with it.

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29:01Ben Solak:Go to shopify.com slash network. Shopify.com slash network. All right, we're back. So the Patriots offense has been lackluster in the postseason. The thesis I've been presenting to people here and beyond is I think that the Patriots defense is not going to look as good as they looked the last three weeks, and I think the Patriots offense is going to look better than they have. Do you accept that?

29:31Mina Kimes:They're going to walk into a climate-controlled building with a roof and be like, thank God we get to play football again. It was truly deleterious weather in the end of that Texans game. Deleterious. Deleterious weather. You had to concur earlier, right? Deleterious weather. We're doing the nerdy pod on Radio Row in that Texans game and in that Broncos game. And so I think the weather's going to be a big aspect. I think you saw May's kind of ball security and the hand size really affected him in the cold. That's going to be less of an issue in this game. The Seahawks defense also is a defense where they create a ton of havoc.

30:01Mina Kimes:They get turnovers, don't get me wrong. But they are less we pressure you, we disrupt you, oriented than the Broncos and Texans and more, hey, check the football down. We're going to murder the back. Like, you know, it's a little bit less like exactly on May, so on and so forth. And so I do think, yeah, just overall, Patriots offense, you can talk about all the schedule stuff you want. They've certainly looked bad in the postseason against really good defenses. But, like, this is a good offense. Drake may lead the league in everything. We're pretty positive this is a good offense.

30:24Ben Solak:Yeah, it's another very significant challenge. But to your point, it's a different challenge. It's a little bit more like the Chargers, I would say, than the Texans, the Seahawks defense. We should probably start with the pressure thing because at this moment, Drake May has taken 15 sacks, which is currently the most ever. In the postseason. In the postseason, yeah, yeah. But it was his only real weakness during the regular season is he had, in the regular season he had a 23 % pressure to sack rate, which ranked 26. In the playoffs, it is 47 % then.

30:57Mina Kimes:It's too many sacks.

30:58Ben Solak:Versus a four-man rush, which we know Seattle prefers, 58 % pressure to sack rate. So this has obviously been an issue for them. I want to post to you, and of course there's a litany of reasons for why that is. I think the Texans defense screws with everyone. The Broncos are also very good and got to play in those conditions. How much of it would you put on the left side of the Patriots offensive line in particular struggling versus May either not seeing the field well or defenses playing him differently or not giving him options, particularly throwing downfield as he likes to do.

31:36Mina Kimes:Yeah, I think while the main issue is the left side of the line, the main addressable issue for right now is May just wants too many kill shots, which I think one of the things you see from a lot of young quarterbacks when they enter the league. You think about kind of the first Trevor Lawrence postseason and that bad first half against the Chargers in that second half. You think about even some of the CJ Stroud game we just saw. But these young quarterbacks walk in, and, man, they want to win the game on one throw. And that's just the intensity of the postseason. Mays certainly is trying to will open windows downfield.

32:08Mina Kimes:They're just like, hey, we've got to scramble for a second and eight. We've got to check the ball down, throw it away for a second and ten even. Let's get back to doing what we did in the regular season. Now, two weeks of a break. Vrabel's a very good coach. Mays generally, even though he's been a high sack rate player, has generally been a really good decision maker. It's not the sort of thing that I think is going to, like, absolutely lampoon their offense against Seattle. But the thing about Seattle is this defense forces more checkdowns than any defense in football, right? Lowest intended air yards against Seattle.

32:35Mina Kimes:If you're checking it down, you're losing. Right, and especially if you're doing it late in the down because you're like, oh, I want to throw, I want to throw, I want to throw. Okay, fine, I'll check it down. Ernest Jones is already running, dude. Like, Traven Henderson is going to get his cleats knocked off. If you're going to check down against Seattle, you have to do it very, very fast while that second level, that short zone level is still dropping back, get the ball out quickly and go. And so with Drake, man, like it's tough because Drake led the league in explosive play rate. Seattle's got like the second best explosive play rate allowed in the last 15 years on defense.

33:04Mina Kimes:And so.

33:05Ben Solak:We did just see them give up a ton of explosive plays. And that's the thing.

33:09Mina Kimes:There's one guy who gets explosive passes against them. Yeah. And it's Stafford. And it's Stafford. And you look at me and you go, man, I hope you'll be Stafford someday. Is he that right now? Do you have those receivers right now where like you're that comfortable in the wings?

33:19Ben Solak:Well, okay. So you brought a lot of things I want to get to. what happened with Stafford, whether or not they can reproduce any of it, and the Patriots receivers who, the more time I've spent with this team, the more underrated I think they are. But I want to go back to what you said about quick game and the checkdowns and how late in the down if you check down you're losing and whatnot. Because Seattle's defense is interesting. It's a little bit of a barbell where versus quick game, under two and a half seconds, they're 12th and 8th paper play. Then anything in rhythm, they're first in every possible margin.

33:51Ben Solak:Then if you can extend, it drops to 14th again. So basically you either have to play super fast against them or you have to make plays outside of structure. If you're in between that, if you're living in the space where most quarterbacks live, you're not having success.

34:06Mina Kimes:Which is to me a sign of an extremely well-coached defense and a scheme of defense where everything that's according to the chalkboard, we kill you. Things where you're cheating us and you're cheesing us, that's where you get us a little bit.

34:15Ben Solak:Let's go back to the Stafford thing because I think this is interesting because I went back and I watched all of the explosives, right?

34:20Mina Kimes:I wish there were like, what, nine or something? It was absurd.

34:23Ben Solak:It was really weird, to be honest. But, I mean, they gave up more explosive plays, I think, in that game than they have certainly in a game this year through stretches of the season. So going back and watching them, pretty much all of them were under center play action. and a lot of them versus, and this coheres with it being under center play action, Seattle would show a split safety structure, rotate to single high, and Stafford was just picking a one-on-one and firing. Just backside, backside, backside. Yes, a lot of Yankee concepts. There's usually some sort of – there's a lot of Seattle getting killed by stuff Seattle does on offense, to be honest.

35:07Ben Solak:but the thing that I would highlight there is it wasn't really schemed up so much. It wasn't, guys were not wide open. A lot of it was receivers winning. Puka beating Devin Witherspoon at the top of his routes. Parkinson beating Josh Jobe on a crosser. Devontae Adams beating Witherspoon. Then Woolen losing on the, I think it was a double move to Puka. The point is it was just Seattle's DVs losing, which brings me back to the Patriots' skill players, right? Like, are they capable of beating Seattle? Because, and this is, of course, like part of the MVP debate, they're not Puka and Devontae Adams.

35:52However, they've been good this year.

35:54Ben Solak:Booty and Diggs are first and second in yards, catch rate over expected. they are the other side of Drake May having this unbelievable tight throw completion rate downfield is those guys catch a lot of 50-50 balls so I guess my question for you is do you think Booty and Diggs and Hollins can beat these Seattle corners if Drake May puts the ball up yeah Diggs no Booty yes

36:23Mina Kimes:Diggs against Witherspoon I think is like whether you're in the slot or you're in the outside I think that Diggs loses that a lot I think Spoon's way too quick. I think he's way too physical. Diggs also, I think, to start the year, a lot more downfield juice. I think, as you've seen the back half of the year for Diggs, he's looking a lot more like a 31-year-old in terms of some of the explosive ability in the middle of the field. A lot of his success receiving an explosive play, if you go and you watch it, to me is more the schemed-up variety. And like you said, those Rams ones weren't. I just checked, by the way, the Seahawks have given up 53 explosive passes this year.

36:52Mina Kimes:Stafford has 17 of them. Now, obviously, that's over three games. That's cheating, right? But still. I know. It's still very funny. That's a good 33%.

36:58Ben Solak:I think Puka Nakua himself is like.

37:00Mina Kimes:That's 33 % of Seattle's explosives given up all over one quarterback. With that said, Booty on the backside of the verticals interests me, right? When it's Rik Wollin, I think Rik can match him for height, weight, speed, but at the catch point, we know that Rik doesn't necessarily see it that fast play that fast. And then Joe, who I think is technique-wise a lot stronger, is just not the height, weight, speed player. Booty, like, you know, he's a third-year player. He's a sixth-round pick. Like, he's not the sort of name that gets recognized. When you watch them play, and, like, you know, he has a very high-caliber recruit coming out.

37:27Mina Kimes:This is the sort of guy who with a different name with different draft capital. We would talk about it as like, all right, you know, like field tipping player here. He's fourth in the league in explosive pass rate overall, or catch rate overall, I should say, behind Alec Pierce, Christian Watson, the typical hero guys, and then Bowie's right there. So to me, I would expect to see, especially in long and late downs, Patriots get light, try to get to 11 personnel, get that dime personnel on the field so that way Job comes onto the field as the fourth defensive back. We try to go three by one, get Bowie into the boundary.

37:52Mina Kimes:And if you're going to give us one-on-ones there, we're going to take those one-on-ones there. If you're not giving us one-on-ones, now it's three over five to that side and May supercomputers.

37:59Ben Solak:Patriots are going 11. That ball's got to come out fast because I don't trust them against.

38:03Mina Kimes:Yeah, you can only chip at one spot if you're going 11 now.

38:06Ben Solak:Yeah, Booty against Willen is a really interesting one because Booty's such a fascinating player because he's undersized and he's not a separator, but he's a downfield threat because he's so good at tracking the football. He's got great physicality and balance. And then you've got Willen, on the other hand, who has these interesting elite physical tools. I mean, one of his arms is probably half as long as Keyshawn Booty. Big dude. But sometimes he can read things wrong. He can get beat on double moves. So it's like I think that's a really significant matchup. You think about Patrick Sertan breaking out the pass to Booty down the left sideline in that game.

38:39Mina Kimes:The greatest play a cornerback has ever made in history was so good.

38:43Ben Solak:You know, in those situations, the Seahawks versus tight – so I mentioned Drake May and tight window throws, unbelievable lead and everything. Seahawks versus tight window throws this year. Allowed 2.3 yards per attempt.

38:56Mina Kimes:Every Seahawks stat is so stupid, dude.

38:59Ben Solak:But it's a great – I love that as a strength-on-strength matchup is what I'm saying, because I do think both sides are very good at it. And I also just don't think that the Patriots can dink and dunk their way through this. At some point, he's going to have to hit one of those balls downfield when this – he's going to have to beat quarters over the top. And it comes back in the biggest moment. All things come home. I don't know how I feel if he beats it.

39:26Mina Kimes:The dink and dunk point is a really critical one because I think that Josh McDaniels has gotten a ton of love this year, and I understand why. But a lot of what McDaniels calls is like 102 stuff, and it's just Drake being really right really fast in a way that we're still not appropriately giving Drake credit for. He just walked in the league and was like, yes, I played NFL speed with NFL accuracy. It's like Caleb didn't do that. Even Jaden didn't do that. We're just like immediately on it on every single concept. like bang, bang, bang, bang, bang, switch, watch stuff. There are like two defenses in the league you can't do.

39:54Mina Kimes:This against in Seattle is one of them. Where if you try to be that precise down the field, you'll get a couple first downs. But eventually they're going to get a negative on you, right? One of my favorite stats, more insane Seahawks defense stats, Seahawks giving up 29 touchdown drives this regular season. Second lowest in the league, like that's crazy. The average starting field position on those drives was the 41-yard line, right? You have to be so close to the goal line already to score a touchdown on Seattle. because if you're trying to build these 70-yard, 80-yard drives, there's just too much distance.

40:22Mina Kimes:This defense is too good. So you either have to hit an explosive, they don't allow those, or you have to get a short field.

40:28Ben Solak:They're so good in the red zone.

40:30Mina Kimes:Patriots' red zone defense, by the way, worse than football. I know, I skipped over that.

40:33Ben Solak:I know, they've been better, obviously.

40:35Mina Kimes:They haven't been in the red zone. I know, right? Don't worry about it. Goal to go is where they're right there.

40:38Ben Solak:I really like, too, Seattle, like a lot of stuff they do in offense in the red zone. I think Clint Kubiak's been really good in the red zone.

40:43Mina Kimes:That's so good, dude.

40:44Ben Solak:Yeah, I mean, he's coming off of his best game. Want to earn extra income for your business? Amazon Hub Delivery is looking for ambitious business owners to assist with local deliveries. When you become a partner, you and your staff will deliver packages to customers in your area on a schedule that works for you. With each package delivered, you'll gain extra income and exposure for your business. Plus, Amazon Hub Delivery makes it easy to get started. There's no upfront costs, delivery experience, or long-term contracts required. Sign up to learn more at Amazon.com slash Hub Delivery. That's Amazon.com slash H-U-B Delivery.

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42:42Ben Solak:Upgrade to a Wix XP oil filter for just$2 more. Limits apply. See store for details. Stop by your local O 'Reilly Auto Parts store or shop online at OReillyAuto.com. Okay, so I haven't even acknowledged New England's rushing attack. It just seems like such a mismatch. Am I missing anything? Are there opportunities? Are there ways you think they can find to run the ball in Seattle? By the way, hilarious Seahawks stat. Okay, so the Seahawks don't play base. We talked about the Patriots.

43:11Mina Kimes:If we win this game, we're a real dumb man. If they score 30, we're going to be in so much trouble. It's been all Seahawks defense.

43:15Ben Solak:I do think he can throw the ball deep. I really do. And as I mentioned, quick extended plays. There's a possibility there. We haven't even gotten to May scrambling, which is New England. You'll perk up when we get to that part. But the run game is not a great matchup. Seahawks play primarily nickel and dime. They have a 70 % success rate in dime against the run. Do you know how crazy? Like, that's so crazy.

43:45Mina Kimes:I have a dime stat. Let's see.

43:48Ben Solak:70%.

43:48Mina Kimes:Yes.

43:49Ben Solak:64 % out of nickel, which is also crazy.

43:51Mina Kimes:The Seahawks have allowed 5.3 yards per pass attempt this season in dime, which is the second best over the last decade for pass attempts in dime. And the 2020 Rams, again, another Brandon Staley comparison, is the only team that's better. This is like – it is – they put six defensive backs on the field, and they still have him on Wari, who's the same linebacker, and Devon Williams, who's just an undersized linebacker.

44:08Ben Solak:My guy Luke, who came on our show as a researcher for NFL Live, sent me, I thought, a really interesting note that I want to run to you, which is if the Patriots go jumbo, which they do a lot, second half of the season, probably the highest rate or close to it. I have some more stat. I don't know. It's a lot. And they take shots occasionally out of jumbo, which, again, thing you want to do. But he mentioned if they do go jumbo in this one and they're 21 personnel with the six offensive linemen, one thing some teams have had success with is running away from Iman Worry. Yeah. So, you know, as good as the Seahawks.

44:45Ben Solak:Running away or running too? Running away. Running away. Running away from Iman Worry. you know because he was pointing out how he'll usually align to the passing strength get him locked in there he is so fundamental to their run defense out of those sub packages do you think perhaps because I know to go back to the right they'll be able to run the ball

45:07Mina Kimes:with their bigger bodies on the field so like yes but still at the same time like all right if I go strong right and it's Will Campbell against DeMarcus Lawrence on the weak side or I suppose it would be with Chen and Owosu. That's still a neutral to me. Like, that's not all our advantage, right? Like, you said Iman Wari is really the straw that stirs the drink in terms of these light personnel defending the run. You're absolutely right. But it also is defensive ends, right? When they're in, like, first and ten and it's Lawrence and it's Owosu, those dudes are goblins, man. I mean, they are just freakazoids.

45:34Mina Kimes:Lawrence, like, I had a cut-up of Lawrence for a piece I did that comes out tomorrow. Lawrence is so good.

45:40Ben Solak:I'm glad you mentioned that because the edges are such, like, part of the secret sauce of the whole, like, oh, Seattle's so good at defending the run out of nickel and dime. It's easy to forget. So massive.

45:48Mina Kimes:It's easy to forget, but when McDonald first dawned and we were watching him in Baltimore and we were understanding what he was, the headline was, Mike McDonald defense. You don't need edges, right? They didn't rush the passer with the edges. So they could put these just, again, goblins out. They just got orcs at defensive end and they can actually two-gap. Like DeMarcus Lawrence slows so many runs down because he just deletes a tight end four yards into the backfield and the back is to pitter-patter, pitter-patter, pitter-patter. And now I can load my light box up, right? The reinforcements flow in.

46:14Mina Kimes:I think it can do it. I think Jumbo, take advantage of him, it's there. But it's not like an overwhelming advantage the way I think May on the scramble might be. It's more of like, all right, this is how we get to neutral. You asked me what, if anything, you feel good about in the running game. I think the Patriots are heavy. Get power team, which is what I want to be against Seattle. Aggressive front, taking advantage of it. And Seattle's going to run blitz, too. That's how they solve some of their light box issues. And so you might get me on one, but I might get you on another. If I'm away from the blitz, and I've got a counter run going, Now we've gotten to the third level.

46:43Mina Kimes:There's that. And then there's the aspect of just Trayvon Henderson runs a 21-mile-per-hour play. And so it's okay. I'm going to give my guy six, seven carries, chops at the apple, and we're going to hit him on tosses and on counter runs, like I say. And you might have a success rate of 83%. You might stop me on five of the six, but those six that I get might be 50 yards house call. And in a game like this, which I expect to be pretty low scoring and low on explosives, that can be the difference. And so there is a home-runner strikeout aspect that New England's still going to investigate, even though down to down they're probably going to be in trouble running the ball.

47:16Ben Solak:All right, well, May scrambling, you alluded to it. Let's get to that because it's probably the biggest advantage they have on offense. It's been the thing that he's done well, of course, in the postseason, but that's not out of the blue. Drake May has been a very good scrambler since he came into the NFL. I sent you this stat.

47:33Mina Kimes:I actually already know the stat you have.

47:35Ben Solak:Yeah, because I was trying to figure out, because I was like, Let me just figure out how Seahawks are going to play this. So according to – I think I did this on True Media. The Seahawks have faced only seven design quarterback runs this year. They're just the lowest in the NFL.

47:53Mina Kimes:Like, what, six of them were that Jaden game too?

47:55Ben Solak:They faced 50 scrambles, which is the highest. Now, a lot of that is because teams are on third and long and the quarterbacks –

48:02Mina Kimes:And the defensive structure is so good. So you have to – you can't throw the ball. They're all.

48:08Ben Solak:Went back and watched the Jaden Daniels reps because I was like, they played Murray early in the season, but that was, you know, he's by far the most potent threat. And I told you this. I was shocked by how little they spied him. They didn't play man, and that's notable against dual-threat quarterbacks. They'll play, you know, I think they played man just 12 % of the time in that one.

48:30Mina Kimes:Yeah.

48:31Ben Solak:And that's them also not being worried about Washington's pass catchers, you know, whatever. but I thought for sure there would be somebody with eyes on him and going back and watching I was amazed Ben by how much they just trusted it's you know their zone defense someone to bring him

48:47Mina Kimes:down yeah and I wonder if there's a degree of like well Jaden is so quick that if we spy we die because like Ernest Jones is never going to get there on time right once he breaks the pocket so I wonder you might see a little bit more of it against May who isn't the same level of like twitch athlete but i also think you know seattle stunts and twists a lot and the teams that stunt and twist are often saying hey we're going to show you space to take space away so you know it's not going to be so much a spy so much it's going to be a looping rusher right and a guy was coming from this and then like he operates as a spy for us because we funnel the quarterback one direction but yeah the fact that like i find it so interesting that the seahawks just don't spy like we don't right this is not very an effective thing we're not going to do this i think like again like

49:26Ben Solak:But maybe there's a change-up in here. I've been thinking about it.

49:29Mina Kimes:I feel like it's going to be in the game plan.

49:31Ben Solak:Especially with the way May runs. So May is a very different runner from Jane Daniels. May is running through the teeth of your defense. Since he came into the NFL, when he runs between the tackles, he has a 68 % first down rate, which is the best of any quarterback in the league. It's very Josh Allen-esque, the way he runs. And so, you know, you're leaning on your defensive tackles a bit and your edges to trace, and Seattle's very good at that, and they're very stout. but I do wonder if they mix it up a little maybe we get some odd mirror maybe we get like I just feel like this to me is the one thing where I'm like if I'm my McDonald knowing how this team has struggled in the postseason and the way they've been able to kill defenses what if I show them something different in terms of how I regard how I prepare for the rushing quarterback

50:15Mina Kimes:I think right I think it's an arrow they'll have in their quiver I'd be really surprised if it's not the other aspect of May scrambling that is interesting to me you brought up you know upfield between the tackles. I'm gone now. There's also just escapability, right? One of the complaints with May is, okay, he'll stay in the pocket a little too long. He takes these sacks, takes these fumbles. One of the exchanges is when he breaks that sack and he gets outside of structure, you know, he's like first and drop back success rate, second yards per attempt on some of these extended play throws. We talk about a Seahawks defense that has really good structure.

50:41Mina Kimes:Okay, we're going to play zones and we're going to pass all these things off and we're going to match. Well, the moment the quarterback goes from being over here to run in that direction, we're in scramble drill rules now and structure changes. And so, like I talked about, like, Patriots, I don't want you handing the football off. I want you dropping back. It's because I think that if I can get enough May in the backyard plays, like, you know, on the chalkboard, Mike McDonald and your guys probably have our guys beat a little bit. This is a really good unit, very talented, very good defense. In the backyard, right, drawing plays in the dirt, we have a really, really talented quarterback here in terms of throwing the football down the field, finding explosives, creating explosives with his legs.

51:16Mina Kimes:And so, to me, like, there's the May scramble aspect where I'm crossing the line of scrimmage, and then there's the extension aspect that also is going to give Seattle, like, you know, they played, okay, Brock Purdy, who is kind of good at extending plays. They played a Kyler game. This is a different cat, man. The Seahawks have not played Josh Allen this year, Patrick Mahomes this year, Lamar Jackson. This caliber of thrower when he gets us out of the pocket.

51:37Ben Solak:Yeah. I think where I come down on this is I feel for the Seahawks to win this game, Sam Darnold just has to be okay. for the Patriots to win this game, Drake May has to be amazing. He was an amazing quarterback this season. He was my MVP pick for a reason. So it is not outside the realm of possibility. But I just think when I go matchup for matchup, just thinking through each group, thinking about Seattle's improved ability to run the football over the last couple months, thinking about that coaching staff, and New England's great. it's i i still feel pretty good about seattle here they're yeah they feel like they're cut

52:22Mina Kimes:above for sure it like it's very hard to get the patriots winning this game without the patriots getting short fields which goes to your standpoint like you know sam over right sam's just had an unbelievable season and like a great nfc championship game like all right buddy like you've done your work like we'll handle it from here like just do not lampoon us right here right special teams and aspect of that as well right marcus jones and rashid jahid literally the two most explosive punt returners in football so you have field flipping plays there but in general it's if the Seahawks defense does not face short fields, they don't give up touchdowns.

52:50Mina Kimes:And over time, you're going to wear the Patriots out and you're going to score a couple touchdowns and you're going to win this thing. And so, to me, it's avoiding the negatives from Seattle. I think the Patriots can get enough on defense to get a punching chance, right? And then it becomes, right, you need that 90th percentile Drake May game, that 95th percentile Drake May game. Man, it would be sick to see. It would be such a thrill to see, right? And like the dawn of May and like, you know, you'd win Super Bowl MVP, second year quarterback, the future of the league. The Seahawks defense is pretty good.

53:13Mina Kimes:I don't know, like I would love to see it. there absolutely is a chance, but like most likely outcome is Seahawks.

53:18Ben Solak:Do you feel a little better after we're at the end now?

53:22Mina Kimes:Like, I feel like, like better handle. Yes, for sure. But I do feel like I asked my editor, like, Hey, you know, all the expert picks for ESPN, what's the, what's the spread. And then like, it's 47 Seahawks, 11 Patriots. It was like 80 % people picking Seahawks ESPN. To me, that number is too big to me. Like this is more like a, like a 6535 sort of a game. So I'm still picking Seahawks, but I will say that like, the best laid plans of mice and men, right? Like all these nice schemes, this, that, and the other thing. Man, that guy wearing number 10 might just win the ball game in a way that the guy wearing number 14 is in.

53:51Ben Solak:And they have a coach who's unbelievable at situational football. This is a game where that tends to matter a lot.

53:56Mina Kimes:This is so nerdy. I'm devastated I'm putting this on the air. I'm really hoping we get good situations in this game because McDonald and Brave are both excellent at it, right? So I'm hoping we get some good analytics discourse. Oh, God.

54:09Ben Solak:Yeah, like I said, I am not ruling it out. I think my final score was 27-24. Like, it's not crazy.

54:15Mina Kimes:I want to say it's 16-13 Seahawks over Patriots. Really? You're on low. I think it's going to be 6-3 at halftime for sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

54:24Ben Solak:That might be the bolder pick.

54:25Mina Kimes:I feel like our biggest difference in this game is I think the Patriots' defense is going to get a lot more negatives, right? I think they're going to give up some chunks for sure, but I think they're going to be able to stop some drives with some 2nd and 20s and some 3rd and 15s. I just feel like they have – and look,

54:39Ben Solak:We've seen elite defensive tackles take over games. Chris Jones, Aaron Donald. I like Christian Barmer and Milton Williams. They're not Aaron Jones and Chris Jones.

54:51Mina Kimes:Those two guys.

54:52Ben Solak:And the New England edges just don't.

54:54Mina Kimes:Caleb on chase on 50 pressures this year? He's been great. He's been great. And the blitz package. I think, like, cumulatively, there's enough paths to pressure. The defense tackle thing is the main one, and that's the one that can, like, really flip the game. But there's still, to me, there's still edge presence and there's still blitz presence.

55:09Ben Solak:really good at in-game adjustments too. It's like when we talk about, what do you do if they have a JSN? What do you do if they send pressure? What do you do? I've really been impressed by a lot of, not just who he is over the course of the season, but in games, some of the adjustments he's made from quarter to quarter, half to half. Part of why I love that hire, which I haven't even talked about. I'll get to that at some point. For Las Vegas. All right, that's it. Ben Solak. Oh, God, I should make a bigger deal about this. We are going to be live.

55:34Mina Kimes:Yes.

55:35Ben Solak:After the Super Bowl.

55:36Mina Kimes:I'm so excited.

55:37Ben Solak:Right after. so you are going to get pure, unfiltered. I can't wait.

55:42Mina Kimes:I'm so pumped.

55:43Ben Solak:Mina, because NFL Live is on an hour and a half after the game, so I had a little chunk in between. We're going to tape. YouTube.com slash at Mina Kimes. It'll go out the next Monday morning, of course. It's a podcast. If you're listening to this, you can watch it, but you can also tune in right after the game. YouTube.com slash at Mina Kimes. Myself and Ben will be there to recap whatever happens. see you on the other side buddy

56:10Mina Kimes:I can't wait

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