Won’t You Be My Nabers: X-Factors for Every NFC team

28:47Dan Pizzuta:it felt like Grenard really was the the one piece that they were able to get out of to free up some cap space so it might have just been something that they needed to do regardless but I do think they that's true they certainly have faith in in Turner and they they do need it because it's not just that he's stepping up into this role if you look at their depth chart right now it is Van Ginkle and Dallas Turner on the edge. And behind them is Tyler Batty, who is a 2025 undrafted free agent and Bo Richter, who is a 2024 undrafted free agent. And that's their edge depth. And obviously in this Brian Flores defense, there's going to be a lot of moving pieces.

29:29Dan Pizzuta:There's a lot of blitzing, like they blitzed on half of their snaps last year. Like no one blitzes like Brian Flores in different ways and with the guys who were coming in and they go really deep at like off-ball linebacker and guys who can pass rush. But again, to have someone on the edge, you really need that and be able to win some of those one-on-ones that are created because of some of those blitz looks. And you're really asking. It was a rotation last year, but right now, and obviously you could have a veteran come in. I think there are still a couple veteran pass rushers at this point just to add to the group.

30:02Dan Pizzuta:But right now you're asking a lot of Van Ginkle and Turner. We've seen Van Ginkle do it. He can definitely do it in that Flores defense. you do need a little more of Turner for this to be a defense that stays as good as it is and you know kind of part of the chapter that I wrote for it for the Vikings is the projections are kind of expecting the Vikings defense to drop down to what closer to average a little bit after being a top three defense in DVOA the past two years and again they're just kind of asking a lot of players to step up and Turner if he can step up and be you know what they thought he was going to be as a first round pick that has the, that's what gives them the potential to be one of those better defenses in the league again, and kind of stave off that regression a little bit.

30:45Yeah. They're a team where even if like, let's say you dropped from top five to top 10 ish range. The hope I think is the offense picks up the slack. Right. But yeah, I just like, look, I, Brian Flores, if we're doing a defensive coordinator draft, He's it's interesting because I think like different guys you want for different types of defenses, different talent levels. He perhaps is the one out of everyone where you're like, you could just take anything and turn it into something. Right. But it gets to a point where I'm like, they did draft, uh, Caleb, um, Banks in the first round. We'll see, you know, what they get out of him and if they're able to get more interior pass rush and all that.

31:28But I think this is, this is it for Turner. It's kind of for him as well. Right. Doesn't it feel like it's year three? This is it. You got to break out now if you want that big money contract. So we shall see. And when I think about the NFC North, which kind of feels like a division in flux, if the Vikings are going to be competitive, and I'm closing my eyes and imagining it, it starts with Kyler. But then the second thing I would say is a player like Dallas Turner picking up the slack on defense. All right, you have the Lions team very much in flux.

31:59Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, absolutely. So this is the one where I did go with a wide receiver, and it's a weird one that kind of breaks into a little bit more of their philosophy here, but I have Isaac Tesla. And it's, okay, partly because he was, again, a fun rookie. He made a lot of crazy catches, but under a yard per route run. But 11 of his 27 targets were in the end zone, and those ended up with six touchdowns. So how he develops, I think is going to be important for the Lions philosophically, because it's how much do they want to be running 11 personnel. They brought in Drew Petsing to be the offensive coordinator.

32:42Dan Pizzuta:He's someone in Arizona who was running a lot of 12 and 13, probably would have run even more 13 last year if Tip Ryman did not get hurt. So this is something where I expect them to want to lean into 12 personnel a little more. When you look at what Jameer Gibbs has been as a runner, he's been a much better runner out of 11 personnel because of that spacing. So last year on 87 early down carries from 11 personnel, Gibbs averaged 6.5 yards per carry and 10.8 % DVOA. On 88 carries from 12, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry and a 34 % success rate and negative 23.9 % DVOA. So I think that's underrating Gibbs a little bit because I think the offensive line was really in flux last year.

33:29Dan Pizzuta:I think he has the ability to create some of his own space between the tackles. But I do think throughout his career, he's been a much better runner being able to spread some things out and taking advantage of some of that space from 11 and the way they We've been able to figure out how to get him space in the run game. So in this league that I think is shifting more to 12 and 13, I think that is something that the Lions will benefit from. How often the Lions want to be in 11, I think could potentially be something that really impacts how explosive the run game can be, as we see Gibbs take way more carries than he did last year.

34:09If you had to pick a player, I like what you're thinking there, by the way. And it is kind of an interesting zag from the line, right? Like as the league does go to using more multiple tight end sets if they were leaning a little bit into using their three receivers because the other two are obviously very good. Amarose Brown, Jameson Williams. But it does feel like that vision is predicated on functional offensive line play. If you had to pick one player on this offensive line who you think is the X factor, I thought you were going to pick a lineman. Who would you pick of the five?

34:43Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, I was thinking about it. I think, I mean, I have faith in Cade Mays being good, but he's probably who I would pick just because it is so much of that interior and being that centerpiece, quite literally, of that offensive line, I think is going to be really important. And that was a position that was really in flux last year. And I think a good center would help the two young guards a little bit. And I think if, you know, you penny Sewell, I'm not worried about transitioning to the left side. I feel fine. Sewell, Mahogany. And then the right side, you're like, you go from Mays at center to Ratledge to Blake Miller, who they drafted this year.

35:27That's a young right side. And yeah, I think if this thing all falls apart, I do feel like it's going to be on that side of the offensive line. But alternatively, it could be great.

35:41Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, and I originally, so I actually originally did have Miller when I first did my first draft of this. But then I decided to go this route because I think the offensive line plays an important part here. If they do need more tight ends to be attached to the line, maybe create some of a longer surface area for Gibbs because you need to make up for what Miller is doing on the right side and you just need a little more help there. I think all of this just kind of plays together. And what Detroit ends up being philosophically is really interesting to me and how they want to run this offense and also how they keep the personnel in place.

36:19Dan Pizzuta:Because I think they could potentially run 13, but I also don't think they want to take Jameson Williams off the field at all. So the push and pull of who they have and what they want to do I think is super interesting this year. Packers, there's two injured players who I could have easily chosen. Micah Parsons, obviously, who now were Adam Schuff. I think somebody was reporting he might not be ready until October. That's deeply concerning. He is one of the more load-bearing players in the NFL, I always say. Tucker Craft is another player. I'm very interested in his health and availability and how he looks early on because he was such the focal point of that offense, and he's so good and also gave them kind of, I think, an identity that if he's not on the field they have to evolve but i'm gonna go with a different player um and i'm gonna pick a receiver i'm gonna go with christian watson who just got the four year 110 million dollar contract extension um so this receiving group has let some guys walk out the door notably romeo dobbs who was kind of like the steady eddie of the bunch um and then to Tavian Wicks as well.

37:26And so they went from having like too many guys, too many mouths to feed, but is there a number one to like a pretty concrete one, two, three Watson, golden Reed, who they also play Jade Reed. Um, you know, they have Savian Williams, this guy more, but yeah, those are the three. And I picked Watson because I just really think this Packers offense is so different when he's not on the field and it kind of gets underplayed a little bit. And obviously He's had injuries since coming into the NFL that have made it a big storyline for this team. But I pulled his on and off numbers out of curiosity. And I did his entire career to get a large sample size.

38:07So 2022 through 2025. When Christian Watson is on the field, the Packers offense is second in yards per attempt, first in yards per play, fourth in EPA per play, and third in first down rate. So this is a top four offense. When he is off the field, they are 16th in yards per play, 19th in first down rate, 13th in yards per attempt. They're ninth in EPA per play. So I feel that if you could tell me Christian Watson is going to play 17 games for the Green Bay Packers, I think I'd be like, you know what? I have some concerns about the offensive line, Tucker Craft, whatever. But that's probably enough for me to feel good about this offense based on what we've seen.

38:55But if he's not, you know, if there's another injury or whatever, you get worried about where they're going.

39:01Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, it's so clear what the Packers are when he's on the field and how he impacts what they're able to do. Being able to be that long outside vertical threat that is explosive. And I think there were some people that saw the contract that he got and were a little surprised by how much money he got paid. But explosives matter so much in this league. So last year, when there was at least one play in a drive that went or pass play that went over 16 yards, 46.8 % touchdown rate on that drive and a 70.8 % scoring rate on those drives. So that is at one play or more of 16 or more yards through the air.

39:48Dan Pizzuta:Without one, so zero plays of 16 or more yards through the air, a 10 % touchdown rate per drive, and 21 % scores per drive. So you just see one explosive just changes everything that you can do on an offense, especially with the new kickoff rule where you're already starting closer to the goal line, usually starting at least like on the 35 or around the 30 somewhere. And like one explosive puts you in field goal range. And that's what Christian Watson has been for this offense when he is on the field. And you have a quarterback like Jordan Love who has no hesitation to push it down the field when he's there.

40:28Dan Pizzuta:So it's just the combination of those two work out so well. And that's why they are so efficient when he is on the field. Yeah, I'm glad you brought up Jordan Love, right? Because he is a quarterback who's aggressive and throw the ball downfield. And Watson is his guy. on those concepts and that's the identity of the Packers offense when it's clicking, it's deep balls and then yards after the catch. So like Watson and craft being on the field at the same time, Reed, he was also a great guy, you know, it is. And we'll see what they get from Matthew golden who kind of came alive at the end of the season.

40:57But, um, yeah, it's just, it's just very different. It feels a lot more congested and he clears room when he's not on the field. And I'm kind of the opposite of what I was saying about like the Eagles. Like, I think this Packers defense could really struggle at the beginning of the year. So the offense is going to have to pick up the slack, I think, until Micah Parsons gets back to being Micah Parsons. All right, let's wrap with the Bears. You have the Bears. Who did you pick?

41:21Dan Pizzuta:I picked Austin Booker. Yeah, so Bears were 29th in pressure rate last season with the ninth highest blitz rate. So Not a lot going on in the pass rush category there. Montez Sweat had 28.9 % of the Bears' pressures overall, which ranked 13th. The next highest Bear was Gervin Dexter at 20.3. Booker hurt his knee in the second week of the preseason and missed the first seven games of the season. But when he was on the field, he actually accounted for 29 % of Chicago's pressures, 27.3 % of the quarterback hits. and Sweat was second for both of those. So I think that the Bears are really banking on him to step up.

42:05Dan Pizzuta:They didn't make any moves really in free agency or in the draft to get a number two edge to go next to Sweat. So I think they're just really banking on him to step up and be that type of guy that they can rely on to get after the quarterback. And he's flashed when he's been on the field. Just did not really get that consistently coming off the injury last year. Didn't play a lot in his rookie year. So I think this is another year three guy that they're really banking on a lot. If you told me that Booker has double-digit sacks, then I think this is probably a good defense. Because the secondary is, I think, could be awesome, right?

42:42So they didn't add to pass rush, but they did draft Dylan Thienemann. They signed Kobe Bryant. So the safety group is going to look very different. Jalen Johnson, Tyreek Stevenson, Kyler Gordon, when they all play, we know are a talented group

42:57Dan Pizzuta:of corners prominently they all missed so much time last year so much time this was a defense that was very turnover dependent last season they're a prime regression candidate because of that unless they can get more pass rush production from one of these players because yeah like the big i think one of the biggest surprises i talked about this i think when i was after the draft talking about like groups where i thought they still had big holes was that the bears didn't add to the i think they wanted to and it just didn't work out um so this is a little bit of a bet on internal talent and we'll see i mean i i agree though he is the one that i would pick as well as the one's kind of exciting and there's some potential there all right let's take quick break come back and let's do the nfc west next grab a cotton candy five-hour energy shot and get in on the sweet life you get that classic throwback cotton candy flavor but with zero sugar and a five Hour Energy boost.

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44:29And when you book at LaQuinta.com, you can earn Wyndham Rewards points on your qualified stays along the way. Tonight, LaQuinta, tomorrow you shine. Terms and conditions apply. Save$2 when you buy two cans of Superior Products Cover All Tire dressing. Plus receive four times O rewards points now at O 'Reilly Auto Parts. Coverall delivers long-lasting shine. Visit your O 'Reilly Auto Parts store or OReillyAuto.com. Alright, we're back. NFC West. I'm going to go first. This is going to be the only podcast in the history of podcasts that's going to start the NFC West with the Cardinals this summer.

45:06I'm going to do the Cardinals first. I think this is an easy one. Marvin Harrison Jr. year uh so it so earlier i talked about like swinging the division cardinals not gonna be good and nobody thinks that uh in fact they might be so bad that they get a quarterback next year which makes harrison even more important because i'm not only thinking about this season oh by the way gcg kobe brissette finally reported there we go yeah it's over guys for free uh but for next season as well right like this is if harrison jr shows something this year you feel better about next year the receiver or the quarterback walking into you know not feeling like gosh we got to really fix this receiving group because michael wilson's a nice player you got trey mcbride he's one of the best young tight ends in football but harrison jr has just been woefully inconsistent that's how i would describe him since he came into the nfl um as the fourth overall pick i was as high him as any prospect honestly i'm not ashamed to admit it because koshe was freaking incredible uh and he's been it's been very up and down and i think there's questions dan like about like why is he up and down like how much of it is him versus quarterback versus chemistry um but like last year uh you know there we had a couple of big games like similar to the previous this year against Dallas and Indianapolis, but a lot of games where he didn't do a ton.

46:34I went back and watched him a little bit just to kind of try to, I don't know, revisit maybe like what it was, you know, just, is he being misused? And I will say, I don't, I won't say like he was horribly misused, although there were times where he which is kind of like, hey, clear it out, sacrificial. But I do think his particular skill set, and maybe we didn't know this coming into the league, is not something that they totally leaned into, which is watching him, I felt he was the best on inbreakers, crossers, digs, slants. and there were a ton of those in the offense with Kyler. And so I do think that maybe this could have been a little bit of like a quarterback receiver, not quite the same skill set.

47:32I'm not sure if the quarterback situation this year is going to lend itself towards answering these questions, but I do think it's possible that we could see more out of Marvin Harrison Jr. if he is used in a slightly different fashion.

47:45Dan Pizzuta:yeah and i think like the the main thing that it goes back to for uh marvin harrison for me is his rookie year where they just like forced those back shoulder balls uh down the field that him and kyle just had zero chemistry on yeah negative chemistry if that was possible they just like always looked out of sorts but they just continually like spam that and tried to make that a thing and it didn't really work and when when brissette was in last year so uh marvin harrison actually had lower yards per route run with brissette than he did with kyler uh last season it did not have as many in breakers so you would think that maybe it changed a little bit but it didn't change in that way but i do think this year i with um michael floor as a kind of running that offense i do think we are going to get more not only just him moving around from the outside maybe have him in a little bit.

48:42Dan Pizzuta:I think there's just going to be more versatility in what he's doing. And just in the previous two years, he was just so much of that outside guy who ran down the field. And like you said, that just does not fit his game in the way that we all kind of thought it potentially could be. And I don't think like any receiver really would have worked that well in the role he was really asked to play, especially with the surroundings around him. But I do have – I'm still holding out hope that a change in being a little more versatile will certainly help him get – because he was awesome. It still doesn't really completely translate to me how we got the receiver that we saw in college to what we've seen in two years in the NFL.

49:25Dan Pizzuta:It does not look nearly like the same guy. The reps where you see a one or where it looks really good – and I mentioned, again, the crossers, the slants or whatever. I just think his size, he's able to use his frame to box guys out. He's not an elite separator, even a great separator, but there are moments where you can see that he still has unique movement abilities at his size to break guys off at the top. And I just think if he could get anywhere close to what we expected this next season, then whether it's Arch Manning or whoever next year, you're like, okay, cool. We have Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Kendrick Barnes, who they got the third receiver they added this year.

50:11I feel we feel good, right? But if he's not, it's like, ah, we got to really work hard to improve the situation that our young quarterback is stepping into. You have the San Francisco 49ers. Who is your choice? Yeah, it's Mike Evans because like it's Mike Evans on the 49ers.

50:29Dan Pizzuta:just like really cool um yeah and like every everyone coming like out of tampa bay is just like yeah we we hate it we didn't think it was never going to happen um what did chris godwin say he thought it was ai when he first saw it like i think everyone is very heartbroken in tampa but i think this can be really fun if it works out in a way for the the 49ers again like just this outside vertical, you know, one-on-one type of receiver that San Francisco hasn't really had. And I think when you kind of go back to when this offense was really good, like the record-breaking one in like 2023, like that outside verticality of like Brandon Ayuk was really important, not only to like getting him the ball, but it also opened up the middle of the field.

51:16Dan Pizzuta:And that's when McCaffrey and, you know, George Kittle were able to do some things because you had someone that you really had to worry about on the outside. And Mike Evans is like that too, now in extreme over what iuk was so i think when when you can do that and you know purdy's already a guy who wants to like rip the ball when he can especially like on third downs and mike evans is going to be that guy now and i think that just adds an element to this passing offense that really has not been there uh in like this version of the shanahan offense it's gonna be so weird seeing a pretty nice uniform i i feel like of all the changing teams guys that's the one where i'm not going to like Hendrickson in a Ravens, you know, some of the like more notable players.

51:59That's the one where I'm going to be like, what? And then I guess Miles Garrett, we're going to talk about the Rams in a Rams jersey. That, I don't know why. That doesn't feel as weird to me as Mike Evans. Maybe just because I, even though Miles Garrett was like a lifelong or he was Brown for so long, I just think like Mike Evans, Fox. I mean, it's just

52:15Dan Pizzuta:like, yeah, we've like fantasy traded Miles Garrett for years. So like, I've seen that I've seen bad photoshops of, I don't think I ever saw that with, with Mike Evans. I just never, I thought he was going to retire a buck, but yeah, I mean, the craziest thing is like the San Francisco Ryan Nires offense. Like I talked about this last year, even with out Brock pretty at times, they were still unbelievable. Even all the many injuries that they had was a kill at the end. No having I you, this was still a top like three offense. And again, even with all that, they were fifth and red zone. and now they have Mike Evans.

52:52Like that's potentially could be really crazy. I think at times too, as good as they were last year, it did feel like, like you said, it was a little bit congested. Like they didn't have somebody to really create space. And I think hypothetically, like you said, I think 2023 is a great example of like going back to the offense status layer, which was kind of the first year we're like, oh, not first year, but it was a reminder. Oh, here's where Brock Purdy is different from other Niners quarterbacks and having a receiver who caters to that is really valuable. I'm going to go Seahawks. And I am, it's funny, I thought about Josh Jobe, actually, which would have been kind of the opposite side of the Reekwollen thing.

53:36But I'm going to go with Abe Lucas, who's the right tackle. I do not think it was maybe appreciated enough enough how big of a role Abe Lucas playing the entire season had in the Seahawks way in the Super Bowl. Yeah. Who was their third round draft pick, who was awesome as rookie season and then was injured the next two years. For much of them was really like the straw that it was the offensive line without him has been really bad last year. So his last season, in the entire season, he gave up, I was just using the PFF data here, three sacks and one hit. In the prior season, 2024, when he missed 10 games, the offensive tackles who replaced him, Stone Forsythe, Mike Jarrell, George Fant, old friend, gave up seven sacks and six hits in half of the season.

54:36So they gave up combined more than double what he did last year, not even over seven games. Last year, I thought this was notable because it felt right. Rushing to the right side, the Seahawks averaged 5.3 yards per carry, which is 10th in the NFL. Rushing to the left, 4.1, which was 27th. So his presence both in terms of protecting Sam Darnold but also on the ground was a massive game changer for this offensive line. Right guard is still a chilling proposition. Center, Sundell's fine. But if you can tell me that you get another full season out of Abe Lucas, I think they'll be fine. However, he's been injured.

55:25So I just want to throw that. When they did the contract, people were like, oh, that guy always gets hurt. And then he played an entire full healthy season. I just think he's so important to this offense. And if you take him out, you're like, Ooh, this reminds me a lot of 2024. Yeah.

55:41Dan Pizzuta:It's kind of just like you said, there's so many different factors that go into having him healthy. I'm looking at the FTN numbers. He was eighth among right tackles in pressure rate allowed. And that's super important in front of Sam Darnold, who we know is one of the most, you know, pressure dependent quarterbacks that we have in the league. Then you, again, like you said, with Anthony Bradford next to him, having a stable force, being able to kind of help him out a little bit that obviously did not help when, you know, he had some interior rushers that were picking on the Seahawks in that way, but to have a stable right tackle there and not have to worry about a backup right tackle and having him.

56:22Dan Pizzuta:And again, I think we're going to have to lean on that really early in the season when you're working in, you know, a Jadarian Price in the backfield who is going to have to, you know, have a little more of a, you know, probably get on the field and have more carries than he would have otherwise. And so I think just having as much of a stable offensive line as you can for that time being is going to be really important for Seattle. Yeah, I mean, Brian Fleury, who like nobody seems to know that much about, he's taking over for Clint Kubiak. the assumption is he's going to kind of copy and paste a lot of it, right?

56:56But if you saw this with, I think, you know, Ryan Grubb, there was a few things, like he was flawed, but I also think he was dealt a pretty bad hand with that offensive line as a first-time NFL play caller without Abe Lucas, right? And if you, again, like if you could tell me that the Seahawks will get the same consistency, same starting five, even with the guard being a question mark or Bradford being, you know, bad, I feel okay but I don't feel okay if Lucas is not on the field alright you have the Rams to wrap up the division who is your choice?

57:33Dan Pizzuta:we're sticking on the offensive line here and I'm going to have Warren McClendon who had stepped in really well for Rob Havenstein last year and I think really went underrated how good he was if you just kind of look at what he was in all the win rates. He was 12th in pass block win rate among tackles. He was second in run block win rate among tackles, which is so huge for what this Rams team wanted to do last year when so much of their offense with the heavier personnel was just, we are going to have successful runs that keep us ahead of the sticks, putting up with one of the best rushing success rates that we've seen in like over a decade, or at least in the true media era that we have.

58:19Dan Pizzuta:um it was it was so big and not only with that keeping Matthew Stafford upright is a very important piece of what the Rams are so to have a tackle who was able to come in uh be play as well as he did and now have the uh opportunity to be the the starter there on that side of the the offensive line I think is going to be really big for what they can potentially do on offense I think offensive tackle is like the only potential hole in Death Star here. If anything happens or decline in play, injuries, whatever. And again, you could say that of every team, but the other teams aren't the Death Star.

58:57I actually think for all of the hand-wringing around the Rams not taking Makai Lemon or a receiver, you could take Adams, Titan, Nakua for a limited amount of time. And I think, you know what? Sean McVay can make this work. But if you take one of these linemen out, that's when I get worried. Because like you said, so much of this Rams offense is predicated on being a hyper-efficient rushing team. And they have a quarterback who's, you know, like you said, he's older, he needs pass protection. It's the one thing, I think, that could stop this freight train. So great choice. They've been incredibly, I mean, Les Snead, to his credit, finding these offensive lines.

59:52They're not premium picks outside of Avila. They've been incredibly successful at finding, developing young offensive linemen. But the depth is, I feel better, and I know these players, because a lot of them are playing the Rats preseason. I feel better about the depth on the interior than I do at tackle as well. Yeah.

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1:02:39You know, recommendations can be great. Maybe someone recommended this podcast and here you are. But home projects are different. If a podcast isn't your thing, you lose a few minutes. If you hire your cousin's neighbor to mount your TV, you might end up with a lopsided screen and wall damage. Maybe I know a guy just isn't enough for your home. That's why Thumbtack works. It matches you with top-rated local pros with photos, reviews, and credentials all in one place. For your next home project, try Thumbtack. Hire the right pro today. All right, let us wrap with the NFC South. I'm going to go first.

1:03:18Emeka Egbuka. Yeah.

1:03:20Dan Pizzuta:Is his name right? Emeka? Is it Emeka? I can't remember. Yeah, I think that's right. Egbuka. I know I'm saying his last name right. Um, so I want to have a conversation about him and what happened last year, because I don't think I really like took a moment during the season to like step back and discuss this first few weeks of the season. He looks like not just the runaway rookie of the year, one of the best receivers in football. and then Mike Evans gets hurt he's fine but then the production starts dropping dropping dropping and in this final 12 games he's held below 50 yards and nine of them questions I think and this is the conversation part of it why is an interesting discussion is it Mayfield Baker Mayfield is it more attention on Iqbuka is it the competition he faced and sadly my answer is a little bit of all of the buff.

1:04:17Went back and watched all of his targets from the first five weeks. So I think he was awesome, but it is worth noting most of them were against inferior competition. Week one, AJ Terrell didn't cover him. That was Atlanta. Week two, the Texans actually limited him pretty good. He scored on a screen. And then week three, he had one nice tight window catch against Zoss, but otherwise it was not against him for the most part. Week four, he was not Quinian Mitchell. His wins were not against Quinian Mitchell, against the Eagles. Week five, he got Josh Jobe, and it was all Seattle backups in the secondary.

1:05:03So I think there was a little bit of grade inflation going on with some of the guys who played him. And then the other thing I'll say is this, because then I watched, I was curious about the Patriots game in Week 10 because he put up a lot of yards against them. And he actually ate up Gonzalez a little bit underneath when he was playing zone. And I think if I had to pinpoint one thing with Ibuka, it's this. I think he is much better right now against zone than man. And that is borne out in the numbers. Against zone, he was 22nd in yards per route run. Against man, that was 61st. against off he was 17th against press he was 64th and i do think as the year went on defense is kind of keyed on that a little bit and corners were able to get push him around and give him a little bit of a hard time so spending it forward to this year and like can he be the dude because mike evans gone dan i would posit this they shouldn't use him like mike evans because he's not mike evans and i think that's a really important thing to mention when we kind of look at what happened last year and ask, how do we get back some of that early season success?

1:06:07Yeah.

1:06:08Dan Pizzuta:And it does seem like when you hear what they're talking about out of, you know, Buccaneers camp, that they are going to use him more as like a Z and move him around a little bit and not have him be some outside X receiver that they're asking to win man coverage. And like you said, going into it, when you just split the season in half through week nine, 19 % of his routes were against man from week 10 on that jumped up to 24%. He was getting targeted much less against man too. 31.4 % of his man routes, he was getting targeted on the first half of the season. That dropped to 18.8 % in the second half.

1:06:47Dan Pizzuta:So that is like really a big thing of what they were doing. They were manning him up more. He wasn't getting as open. Inaccurate passes were more too. So it was just everything kind of just went wrong a little bit for what he was doing in the second half of the season. But I do, I like what I think Zach Robinson can potentially do with him. And I do, it sounds like they do have a plan to get him just more open, get him some more space around the line of scrimmage. So he is able to just kind of work in those underneath areas that I think can just free him up a little more, play more to his skill set.

1:07:23Dan Pizzuta:And I think that is certainly going to be something that he does well. You know, and for all the criticism of Zach Robinson in Atlanta, a lot of it deserved. I do think he was pretty good at utilizing Drake London and finding ways to get him open and get him opportunities. And yeah, I love hearing that because he is excellent against zone. I'll mention that as well. Like he's got such a great spatial feel. He's got quarterback friendly hands. You know, it's really just, yeah. So you want to keep him clean. and I do think it's a little bit of an awkward fit. If he's the Z and Godwin's the slot, I guess McMillan is sort of lining up outside and it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

1:08:10But I still think the arrow is pointing out, I still think he's incredibly talented. I just think when I went back and looked at the course of the season, I was like, okay, some of this early on was a little bit misleading And then some of it later on, I think, was a little bit unfair as well. So, all right. I'm still optimistic about the player. You have Atlanta. Who did you choose? I have no idea what to make of the Falcons.

1:08:31Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, this was a tough one. But I ended up with Jalen Walker just because of a lot of things that are going on with their defensive line. Obviously, not having James Pierce. You know, so Walker had an impressive rookie season, like five and a half sacks, two strip sacks, which, you know, there was some impact there. he came in like kind of hailed for his versatility is kind of one of those guys that was able to he played off ball but can rush the passer but he played 98 of his snaps on the edge last year and I think Atlanta has said they maybe were a little too conservative with him trying not to put too much on his plate last year trying to let him learn one position that he would play well but he still you know only rushed the pass on 85 of his pass snaps so he's still dropping back into coverage a little more to use that versatility.

1:09:21Dan Pizzuta:But it seems like as they're talking through some of this offseason work, they want to move him around a little more. He is still the number one pass rusher just based on how the depth chart goes. And so they're probably not going to make him like Caden Ellis in a way that he was an off-ball linebacker who moved around all the places. So I think Walker's probably going to move around the front a little more and then can pop up in some other places. And I think the way they are going to use his versatility, I think when now you are down the other pass rusher that you thought you would have, like it's only Samson Aboukam and Aziz Ojolari as the other edges, how effective Walker is going to be is going to be really important because this defense was actually surprisingly 12th in DVOA last season.

1:10:14Dan Pizzuta:So I think there are some pieces here that can work. And if Walker can have some kind of expanded role where the versatility he did have is now more weaponized than it was last season, I think that could be a fun piece that you play around. And it makes some of those other pieces fit a little better into the defense along the front, too. Has the leak come down on what's going to happen with James Pierce Jr. at all? I saw that he was offered, and this was in April, it was around the draft, I remember. He entered an intervention program allowing him to avoid trial for felony charges of an aggravated battery with a deadly weapon, fleeing police, resisting arrests, stalking.

1:10:57It was a horrible story. You can look it up. That happened in the offseason with him and his girlfriend or ex-girlfriend. but I don't think I'm aware of like what his status is I mean I hate even the way I went about addressing the story I hate because like it's it is really quite upsetting and it just is something that I don't think it's come up because I haven't talked about the Falcons at all but it is you're talking about Jalen Walker and I think about you know he was the leading set I believe was leading sack getter right for the team last year I will say not that this is completely separate from what I just said and I hope it doesn't detract from the seriousness I thought Jalen Walker was a better player.

1:11:35Yeah. And I'm more, I am optimistic about him. I thought he, at times, flashed a lot of the traits that I liked about him as a prospect at Georgia. The instincts, instincts, frankly. The athleticism, he plays really, really hard. But yeah, I do wonder what's going to happen with Pierce Jr. Do you have any idea? I'm just Googling and I'm not seeing anything.

1:12:03Dan Pizzuta:No, I don't think anything has come from the league yet. And that's probably, again, one thing that the league is probably going to wait until the last possible moment to actually say something about it. Well, it is another reason why Walker is actually important, really important for them. They did keep their defensive coordinator, also Jeff Wilbrick, in part because I think he's surprising they finished 12th in DVO. This was kind of like a surprising unit. They had like really flashy big games. You remember the Rams game, right? Certain teams, they gave Drake May. Patriots fans drive me for saying that the Falcons defense gave Drake May a hard time, but they did.

1:12:39I'm not saying he was bad. I'm just saying it was a hard game. All right. Yeah, but it's a good pick. All right. Saints. So I went back and watched a little bit for this one. I'm going to go with Kelvin Banks Jr., who was last year the rookie left tackle. and I thought of this while I was watching Tyler Shuck. Obviously, we're not picking quarterbacks.

1:13:08So when I think about the Saints offense and what it would look like for them to take a step in year two, I really think this young offensive tackle duo, him and Fuang on the right side, if they continue building on what we saw in the end of last season, I actually think this could be a pretty good offensive line. They added David Edwards also from Buffalo. And when you think about that, coupled with the addition of Tyson and what I saw out of Shuck, I start getting a little bit excited about this Saints team. And I'll go back to Banks Jr. So, again, played his best football in the second half of the season.

1:13:48Some of that was competition. Got Carolina twice, not the greatest pass rush. Miami, Tampa, the Jets, the Titans. Yeah, okay. However, I'll say, watching him, and I was watching him while watching Shuck, there's a lot to like. I thought his athleticism, he's got really nice, light feet, doesn't panic, good play strength. Some of the runs, too, he had some pretty nasty finishes, particularly against Carolina. There was something there, And I think, again, you think about this offense growing together. If he can take another step in year two, why can't this be? First of all, why can't this team win the NFC South?

1:14:38When I think about going back to my original point of what is swinging a season, the Saints should be trying to win the NFC South. Let's just see what we got in the young quarterback. You saw it last year. He was pro-ready. I'll get into him more later this team should be in contention for the division and if you can tell me that these offensive linemen and Banks Jr. take another step I genuinely think this could be one of the sneaky fun offenses to watch yeah yeah absolutely

1:15:09Dan Pizzuta:they had like a sneaky fun offseason which is the first time we could say that for the Saints I think ever because they didn't like overcommit to anything which was really nice and they allowed a lot of their dead money to finally clear and hit the books and they didn't try to you know bring back a Mario Davis or anything like that to where they were just kind of doubling down and tripling down on some of those veteran players they let some of those guys have a have a clean break and started to get some some more youth and I think that is is going to be a lot of fun this is another you just jump the other side of the ball real quick this is a defense that was 10th in EPA per play throughout the season.

1:15:53Dan Pizzuta:Like they had some fun things. A lot of that was through the back half of the season, which doesn't always translate. It's be careful in like thinking that that is something that is just automatically going to continue. You get to play the NFC South again. Right. Also helps. And I think there are a lot of things inside the structure of the offense. Like I think Kellen Moore did some very fun things that helped the offensive line. I do think signing David Edwards certainly helps that interior too. And I think that's going to help the entirety of the offensive line. I think they made some really smart moves.

1:16:27Dan Pizzuta:This is the most optimistic I've been about where the Saints are going since Drew Brees was there. Totally. The whole time I was watching too, Shuck, I was thinking like Jordan Tyson is such a good fit for this offense, this quarterback, Chris Olave. Like it makes, if you just watch, cause Shucks got this real willingness to throw a lot of the stuff that I think Tyson's really good at middle of the field, intermediate. He, I know I just said, I'll talk about Tyler Shuck later, but like it is, it is, it was, it was a fun rewatch because you could just tell he was so much more comfortable in the NFL than, you know, I mean, he should be, he's 25, but I don't know the whole, I was very pleasantly surprised by the whole operation.

1:17:18But then when I started focusing on Banks, I was, because I didn't really think about him too much during the season. I didn't really like, I don't know. I thought the Saints offensive line, I'm not going to say they were good either, because I don't think that's accurate, but I do think he was trending in the right direction, particularly by the end of the year. Banks Jr. And Fulongar, honestly. But so just, you know, if that continues, I think you feel pretty good about him in year two. And then you feel pretty good about this offensive line. All right. Final team. the Carolina Panthers. All right.

1:17:49Dan Pizzuta:And one of the guys that Banks is going to have to block, Jalen Phillips. I thought you were going to pick Jalen Phillips. Yeah. Yeah. It's really hard to go anywhere else. I thought when looking at the Panthers, just because of. Actually, like I said, I was watching the Panthers and I guess the Saints and I was like, they need bass rush. So yeah. Yeah. So yeah, Panthers were 31st in pressure rate and there was not a lot of help that they could have. So Phillips had 31.2 % of his team's pressures between the Dolphins and the Eagles, but only 14.9 % of his sacks, which is something that hung me up a little bit last year.

1:18:24Dan Pizzuta:He was able to kind of get around the quarterback, not necessarily to the quarterback. I think we know that pressures matter a lot. And throughout his career, he has been someone who has finished more often than he did last year. even like when the Eagles though was like extremely a low rate where like only 60 is 6.8 % of his pressures turned into sacks which was you know one of the lowest figures it was 142nd among 175 defenders with at least 200 pass rushes but that's not something I'm quite worried about but he is going to have to be some guy that turns into or turns those pressures into sacks in order for it to really matter on this Panthers defense and for him to be worth what they gave him.

1:19:08Dan Pizzuta:And I understand the contract, especially after losing out on Milton Williams last year, where he was really the impact pass rusher you could get on the market, knowing that you just kind of had to pay whatever it was to make sure you got him because I don't think there was like a bigger need than like Panthers edge rusher throughout the league. So he's just someone that I think It just has to be this major impact player, one for this defense to be good, to make up this contract, which is like a very real three-year contract with how the money is spread out and some of the guarantees that go into all three seasons.

1:19:43Dan Pizzuta:So I think if he is not that guy, then I think that the Panthers still have some issues on defense. Yeah, because the rest of the defense, you feel like should be pretty solid, actually, right? like corner duos quite safety is the question that's one we're like oh no i don't have it in front of me but i remember looking at it recently not feeling great um but they did sign devin lloyd uh at a much cheaper deal than i thought he was going to get it was fine i was like oh you know i can't get that upset about this i don't know i yeah i thought he was going to get much more and i would have been like oh i don't know about that but at what they got him for i think that makes a lot of sense in that defense too.

1:20:26Dan Pizzuta:Yeah. Um, and then of course on the inside, you have Derek Brown and yeah, I, yeah. And, and, and the, you know, the young pass rushers, Gordon, Princeton, like if Jalen is top 10 pass rusher in the NFL, then you feel fine about the rest of the group, but he has to be top 10. It does seem on, on its, on its face to be a very good fit for Evero, right. Who comes from the big Fangio tree. And there's a reason why Vic Fangio and the Eagles wanted to keep Jalen Phillips by all accounts. And then they traded for a grenade. Like there's a, it's a prototype, right? Of a complete edge. Phillips is a good run defender too.

1:21:03He, he, I feel like has become a little bit underrated in some people's estimation because of the lack of sack production. But when you watch the games, he's so clearly a top tier defensive lineman to me or top tier edge to me so yeah i i i understand like what was it was 38 30 i think it went mafe 20 away 25 phillips 30 per year if i remember correctly i get it it was a little bit surprising but when you take a step back and look at the other options like he is better than those players right it makes sense that he got more money so and then yeah you're like okay wait you know like I said okay safety is Merrick and Scott so and then ransom you know it's it's not that bad but nickel you kind of wish but like yeah this I think if Phillips is Phillips if Phillips is hits his ceiling this is at minimum an average defense which is a leap you know that's that's a pretty significant improvement and you like everything on offense offense I I don't blame if you're not picking offense, quarterback is just, you know, that's the X factor there.

1:22:16The rest of the offense looks pretty damn good to me.

1:22:18Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, I like a lot of it. You know, Tet was really, it was incredible last year. I'm, you know, one of the many Jalen Coker fans. I think like that is just something that, the offense I think is going to be structured fairly well. And yeah, since - The line should be way better, healthier. They threw a ton at the tackle position. so I feel really good about the decisions that this front office has made on offense I like a lot of their choices honestly I like the Dan Morgan era I feel like they've got a big decision looming obviously with Bryce Young but otherwise when I look at everything else that they've done I feel pretty solid about most of it so alright that concludes our NFC X factors Dan where you mentioned you have an article coming out you have the FTN chapters where can people find you, find your work uh yeah we'll go mostly i'm blue sky that's all gonna be posted there whatever it is but uh yeah the big thing is the ftn football almanac for 2026 available for pre-order now should be available for pre-order now pre-order now uh it should be out early july i believe i think there's a set date i don't remember what it is it's early the top of my head we're we're on top of it um as i uh am slightly behind on chapters I need to write.

1:23:35Dan Pizzuta:But we are, yeah, it's definitely the best thing to get you ready for this season. And six chapters for me, a lot of things. Yes, you say that on the cover of the book. So yeah. That's really funny. I didn't even know that. Yes, seriously, folks, I always recommend this. The FTN Fantasy Guide, you can get a digital copy or paper, right? So both ftpiz.com. It is by far, hands down, the best preview that exists right now. And it is really great for if you're into fantasy as well. I think just gives you a good oversight of everything. But I think it is invaluable for the league-wide coverage, some of the best writers around.

1:24:16It is awesome. And also you should check out FDN Fantasy in general. I mean, you hear me always on the show mentioning stats that I use from the site. It is really, really useful in that regard. So FDN Fantasy, go check it out. Go follow Dan wherever you are, but especially on Blue Sky. And I will be back next week to do the top 10 offenses of 2026. I already have no idea who I'm going to pick for number one. That's not true. I think I know. You'll have to tune in to find out. And if you are watching Love Island, we are now recapping the show on viewer discretion. David Dennis Jr. and I. We did our first recap of the premiere.

1:24:58next one will drop on Thursday morning a lot has already happened you watch Levi? I feel like you do yes so you

1:25:05Dan Pizzuta:convinced me to switch over to US last year because I was a UK I'm sorry I'm still a little mad at you for that but I'm behind I'm behind on US this year but we are we're getting into it so I'll be caught up soon okay just google this the new bombshell his name is Corbin. If you're listening at home, if you don't watch Love Island, just Google Corbin bombshell, Dan. And I want you to tell me if this is not Kyle Hamilton's complete doppelhanger. He is, he came in, I think on Saturday night or something. He even sounds like him when he talks. It's so uncanny. He's also right. He also is like, he's just like, I'm 64.

1:25:49And my brain's like, that's Kyle Hamilton's height. Like I, because of course that's like how I think, but, um, it is crazy how much he looks like Kyle Hamilton. So yeah, anyways, uh, go check that out. All right. Uh, thank you as always to the folks at home, uh, Omaha productions who make this podcast, Owen Saylor, Tucker Tash, and Kirsten Sobeki, Jack Foster, that in a different order this week and now my brain's all convobulated. Uh, and otherwise I'll see you next week. Top 10 offenses. Let's go.

1:26:25The Stanley Cup Final on ABC is more than a quest for the cup. It's 134 years of putting it all on the line and the heaviest 35 pounds ever lifted. It's broken curses and broken hearts. But for those chasing it, it's everything. The only question is, who will take it? You just have to watch the Stanley Cup Final presented by GEICO on ABC and the ESPN app. you