Zero Dark Purdy: Previewing Week 17

28:26And so it's hard to sit here on a podcast or an article and be like, this is what the Panthers are doing. I know. Because they change their stripes.

28:31Ben Solak:I know, because everybody goes back to the Packers game when they ran on them, right? but they really aren't a great running team they they sometimes they are like to your point like every like six games it's like whoa rico dattle's unstoppable and then like two games is like nothing you know sub 40 success rate no explosives and i i think also for seattle in particular there's a reason why the passing game is what jumps out maybe i'm wrong maybe they'll have one of those weird out of nowhere run game again i don't know but just but i i think if I'm Carolina like I I was having trouble like I slay like what is it I went back to the Rams game as well and watched some of Bryce's best because Bryce was also very good in that game and I felt like okay if I if I'm Carolina looking at what are they doing well in these big wins what translates to the Seahawks game that matchup is the one that has to pay dividends um also i mean benefit for carolina seattle's good so you're probably gonna play well it's a good team they have that uh hilarious like we only are very good against good teams the other side of the ball i i struggled um i just i'm this carolina deep i know sam dardall's been really up and down the carolina defense is really the past defense in particular is not good the one thing i did want to say about panthers offense like a lot of the running game stuff they've had like 11 different offensive line combinations a ton of guys moving around they finally had a few consistent weeks and i just saw this like doing research for the pod 15 minutes beforehand robert hunt my practice this week robert hunt who had a bi-stakes injury one or week two is apparently and canal said like yeah we've been talking about this for weeks this is not like uh oh like the playoffs like no like we like he's he's he's recovering and robert hunt is their most impactful run to run run blocker they're at the right guard spot hunt back with now mazes at center damian lewis playing great ball at left guard and then the two tackles have been both solid and running game this year.

30:28Like Panthers, if you want me to like, I will, I will take the Panthers remarkably more seriously than the NFC playoffs. If Robert Hunt is playing in that wildcard game against whoever you're playing, like this is a real, uh, a scale tip in player. So yeah, Panthers running game can, can improve.

30:40Ben Solak:Yeah. That's interesting. Yeah. Seattle offensively. I think you'd really like to see this be like a settle down game for Sam Darnold. The I sure would like to see a settle. Yes. Like I'm praying we get one before January through the air. You know, I think the Panthers run defense is better than past defense. The The pass rush is just not great news. Neither is the box guys. But, you know, I think Nick Scorton, the rookie has shown some flashes, but it's still not a strength of theirs. I think the tight ends in Seattle could be big in this one. Carolina struggles to defend tight ends. Yeah. Not to say that JSN, because it's interesting.

31:15Ben Solak:You know, the Panthers obviously have JC Horn, who's very good. But there's Jackson. Pardon? Mike Jackson. Mike Jackson also. Yeah, right. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Panthers have, it's funny because they're 32nd in DVO against number one wide receivers. And I talked to Aaron Schatz, who's obviously that's his stat, and he was explaining how it's actually pretty hard to, that doesn't mean their number one corner isn't playing well. A lot of that is because different teams approach that matchup differently. So you'd look at that, you'd think Seattle, JSN could have a big game, and it's entirely possible.

31:48Ben Solak:I mean, I could see JSN in the slot a lot on this one. I would do that. But I feel like the tight ends in Seattle could also eat because I've just seen Carolina get chewed up. The safeties really struggle. Yeah, and Mike Jackson and JC Horn are both guys who I think win with their length and win with their physicality, and they match up better into physical receivers. JC can run away from both those players, and if you're not able to get hands on the line of scrimmage, I think they're both at a disadvantage, and the Seahawks are so good at playing hide-and-seek with JSN. They were, by the way, oh my God, they were so good at that in the Rams game because the Rams were shutting him.

32:19Ben Solak:Obviously, they shut him down in the first half, and again, credit to Clint Kubiak. some of the stuff they were doing to try to get JSN involved in the office, putting him in the backfield, putting him in motion, putting him like really, really creative. And I think he deserves a lot of credit for that. Sorry. Clint Kubiak feels to me like the most obvious, like why are we not just like sprinting to the skies, the head, the head coach hire, like, and I understand that there's been enough Shanahan and McVay missteps that we've been burned enough to like not think, Oh, it's just an automatic plug and truck.

32:47It's going to be good. but like Kubiak so clearly gets it from like the Derek Carr Saints days and how that offense worked to then dealing with him there the wide receiver injuries and the line injuries there now to Seattle and hiding the right guard spot and dealing with Sam now that Sam's losing his mind for the second half of the season no more Elijah Arroyo adding Rashid Jaheed teams to take away JSN like this guy just does not stop having answers I stand in awe of Clint Kubiak season I

33:10Ben Solak:very strongly agree about the Rams game I really quickly because I want to correct myself if Carolina wins this and Tampa loses to Miami, Carolina wins the division irrespective of, because I just, I don't want to play off. They just have the record advantage. They're 9-8 and Tampa would finish to do 7-8. So this game does matter a great deal. I'm sorry, I want to edit that for them. I'm taking Seattle, to be fair. Seattle is a 7-point favorite and deserve it. I think Seattle wins this game. The thing about the way the Panthers have kind of taken down on the Giants so far has been being able to make your team make a lot of mistakes and then shorten the game and run the football and whatever just if you try to do that against Seattle like firstly the defense is going to kick your teeth in right you're not going to be able to win the field position battle they're not going to give you a down and then secondly they're going to be able to generate turnovers defensively as well in a way that I think the Rams and the Packers were not able to just because they're going to pressure Bryce Young they're going to get the ball out in the pocket like they've kind of shown this over the course of the year so I don't think the Panthers giant killer model works as well for them in this game.

34:15With that said, I could see, you know, with the way Sam is currently playing it, we got to remember they won that game. They came back 16 points down. Unbelievable. Sam had negative 0.4 EPA for drop back in that game. All right. Like the Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown is doing a lot of work right now in the Sam Donald reclamation second half there. So I still like Sam is on, you know, catastrophe watch in all games for me moving forward.

34:39Ben Solak:yeah the to your point it's been a type of position if you go in all their big wins has been but i can't seattle has had so few games like that yeah if you drag seattle into that muck like myers is so good mcdonald is so good they're great in fourth course yeah you know um the defensive line seattle's playing so well all right uh eagles bills great game so stakes the Eagles have a path so to the two seed right now they're at the three seed if they went out in Washington week 18 and the Chicago loses those two games that we alluded to San Francisco we're gonna talk about the Bears game that a lot of people are watching like a lot of feeding hinges on that so there's an incentive obviously because you want the two seed you can get the home game the Bills can still win the division if the Patriots lose to the Dolphins or the Jets unlikely.

35:32Ben Solak:Is it the Jets then the Dolphins? I think the Patriots are playing the Dolphins. Yeah, the Jets because the Dolphins are the Dolphins. Otherwise, it becomes about seeding for Buffalo. Like, do you want the five seed? Do you want Pittsburgh? I kind of struggle with that right now because so much is up in the air with regards to I mean, I guess if you're in the AFC most likely the five seed is going to get Pittsburgh. It seems like Buffalo killed them, so maybe that is something you want that matchup okay uh uh you can go first here because i've got the bills and you've got your home hometown birds yeah go birds uh this thing the key to this game is light boxes the key to this game is who has the better run defense solutions right for the eagles they have the highest light light box rate 68 enormous number bills are six at 54 they are first and fourth respectively in terms of average defenders in the box both of these teams are going to give you run looks.

36:29We know what the Bells are going to do with that. Here are our two tight ends. Here's Reggie Gilliam and James Cook. We have Josh Allen under center. Screw you, buddy. And the Eagles, that run game performance against the Bears, Jalen Carter was at less than 100 % health. They were on a short week. They played a ton of snaps. There was a lot of ways to kind of wave that away. But since then, they've played Dallas and they've played the Raiders. They have not played teams that get heavy on you and try to really lean on you in the running game. So last time we saw the Eagles face a running game like this, like this running him stylistically they got walked down the field dramatically at home right and this bill's offensive line is of a caliber of that bears office line that running game and so it's that side of the ball and then on the other side of the ball eagles offensively went back to being a gun team against the commanders a lot of empty sets that i think was pretty matchup specific over the weeks previous dallas and the raiders they were showing more under center formations and willingness to run the football between the tackles from under center they lost a little bit of the jumbo aspect of their offense because Lane Johnson went down and they needed Fred Johnson to actually play right tackle.

37:32But the expectation is that Lane Johnson returns to this game and is able to play right tackle. I would expect them to then get very heavily back into their jumbo stuff with Fred Johnson because they don't want to be a too tight end team anymore. Their tight ends are just way too thin. Get Fred Johnson on the field, go jumbo, and the Bills are going to give you a nickel and they'll put a defense back in the box. Can you lean on the Bills the way you've kind of shown over the last month or so? Hey, our running game is starting to improve. We're starting to figure out the Saquon Barkley stuff. So this is a who gets to be bigger than the light boxes game.

37:56Who gets a controlled pace, controlled tempo, controlled down and distance and accordingly control the game.

38:01Ben Solak:Yeah. So by key for the Buffalo is you average six yards per carry running into light boxes, punish them. I 68 % light box rate is absurd, dude. And I went back. I mean, obviously we have the same brain on this because it's very much the story of the game. And I looked all of the games. You alluded to some of them just to see. Has Vic changed it up this year? And he just has not. right and and the bears game the lions game and lions are kind of a different team now but like overwhelmingly let those guys run into light boxes it is structurally a big part of how they play i just think it's not going to work against this bills team i mean that is all they want in the world is for you to um not force them to throw the ball i mean because you love the Eagles matchups in the past game here defensively if Josh Allen is dropping back that's a good thing for Buffalo and and which is a crazy sentence to say that's a good thing for the Eagles it's a bad thing for Buffalo I'm sorry sorry for the Eagles yeah sorry um so anything anything you can do I I mean I so so no some notable injuries in this one we should probably mentioned didn't Kobe Dean Jalen Carter was injured.

39:22Ben Solak:We'll see. And some of this has to do with how the Eagles regard this game, right? With Lane Johnson and whatnot. But man, Ben, I just feel like they cannot. I know it's like part of the way they play and it's structural, but let's say you're like you're a big fan. You can say, well, it's cool. We'll just tighten up in the red zone. That's but then they got Josh Allen, right? I know. I just feel like you cannot you cannot let Buffalo run on you. And it just feels like a mistake. Here's what I will say. I will say that light box obviously is independent of the defensive personnel on the field. You can be in base and still have like, you know, light box.

40:00Theoretically, it's never going to happen, but whatever. The Eagles, primarily a nickel team, Cooper DeGene. We love him in the fit. We love him in the slot. Would not be surprised in this game to see them try to be a base team. Right. And since N 'Kobe Dean came back from injury, you've seen Jihad Campbell kind of like evaporate from the offense a little or the defense a little bit excuse me nicobe should probably be able to go the way they talked about him post game post game injury was like he could have probably just like you know got a pain shot and get back in there but we weren't going to do that uh jihad campbell nicobe dean and zach bong you have three backers and jihad can play on the balls and on ball sam and it's really really really really really nice to have a sam linebacker against the bills because they give you those five-man surfaces right where it's guard tackle and then a tight end outside of him and then a tight end outside of him and they give you these long offensive line, you know, extensions that you have to deal with.

40:45So if you can put a guy square on Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and say, we can win at the point of attack. And this guy can also leave in coverage, not like, you know, oh, five down bare front, five rushers. No, he can be a coverage player for us. That's a big deal. So Dejean kicks out outside plays outside corner and you get Campbell on the field and you live in base. To me, that's going to be the solution. Now, no Andrew McCuba. It's Reed Blankenship of Marcus zeps okay you win a lot of reps at the first level okay great the moment james cook gets to the second level exactly and that's the thing is is the bills and i have such admiration for joe brady for this the bills will run the ball 10 times 11 times 12 times it's 40 yards 44 yards but they'll feel it coming they'll feel the james cook pop and then when it pops bang all of a sudden they're on

41:25Ben Solak:you fast uh also of note for the bills um oh i guess you know we should admit the eagles much better against the past statistically than the run the success rate is pretty low but again a lot of that is by design it's it's it's almost like i don't look at them they're not a bad run defense it's just the style of play um and they don't give up a lot of explosives but you point about the safeties is notable um so ftn does they track run types and i checked this because i suspect it would be true and it is eagles defense much better against duo 3.7 yards per carry which is low you know bottom 10 rate 5.6 versus outside zone which is 29th it's partially a jordan davis stat right there but i wouldn't be surprised if um because the eagles the bills obviously very strong duo running game but they'll mix it up week to week opponents based on opponents i wouldn't be surprised if they want to um go with a more outside zone centric game plan for james cook this week power counter too right i want to get to the b gap i want to get to the c gap i want to make your linebackers step down and fix for as good as N 'Kobe is as a player.

42:31If it's N 'Kobe and Reggie Gilliam meeting in the hole and the winner of that block decides where this run goes, if I'm the bills, I'm taking that's Reggie Gilliam versus N 'Kobe Dean, you know? And so there's bills pound for pound, big, big, big football team. And if the Eagles are not playing base, they're playing nickel. They Jalex hunt as out there at edge, small, small, small football team.

42:49Ben Solak:Yeah. And look, there's sacrifices that come with that. The bills come out, put tight ends on the field. They match with, they play more base. They put kick Cooper outside. I love Campbell, but he's been gettable in coverage this year. They're going to throw to their tight ends. I think that's fine. I think you just got to live with that if you're Philadelphia. I really do. I just hate the idea of them just letting Buffalo grind them down. Yeah, it's so easy to see the Bills grind, grind, grind, grind, grind. And then they get, oh, you know, first and 10, holding penalty. It's first and 20. And it's like, finally, this is it.

43:24And they get, you know, okay, second and 15. Okay, third and 11. And you get like those three or four third and longs that are supposed to be the drive stoppers. And then Josh Allen just goes super saying on you. Right. And that's the thing is like it, it, it all makes sense philosophically, get them to a third and long and then we'll beat them until the other guy is the reigning MVP. And then he just decides to drop kick you, you know, 15 yard run, you know, scramble and like, all right, now the philosophy doesn't work.

43:47Ben Solak:I, it's funny because you, you talked about both sides of the ball. I think in the flip side, Buffalo, I don't think should play a ton of base in this. I think even, yeah. Right. just because the reason why I'm like, ooh, you can't let Buffalo's run game is amazing. The Eagles run game has been better, but if I'm Buffalo, I'm betting against that over the passing attack here. There's been encouraging things against the Raiders and the Commanders, in particular Cowboys. I love how much they're putting Hurts in empty, got some no huddle. hurts scrambling out of empty is always significantly better than hurts and the zone reads and whatnot they're obviously still trying to run from under center with saquon you've got your explosive six offensive linemen stuff worked against those very bad defenses it could work against buffalo but if i'm the bills i'm still comfortable going decently light against this team and daring them to run the football it's the opposite i don't feel the same way as i do about philadelphia yeah and it's interesting i think if you look at how the eagles played like that chargers game a few weeks ago and like jalen did have like a you know you have okay four interceptions he had a much like better day throwing the football in terms of like you know their drop back stuff and okay they're able to get their aj brown isolation shots and they're able to throw these hitches on the outside the bills worked hard this year cornerback wise to be able to play a little bit more man coverage a little bit stickier and now with christian benford and maxwell hairston like they do kind of have if the eagles say okay like we know we're getting all this zone coverage stuff let's go through by one let's force the backside man coverage and then take the advantage of it the bills can survive in that a little bit better than they have been able to in seasons past you never really know when it's agent brown davante smith like they might just decide to win the contestant catches on you but the bills have a little bit more punch there the thing that always gets the bills defense and this goes like you know the brown skin we were talking about is they're undersized but they're not fast like usually the exchange is undersized but we're gonna be quick and it's like all right what if you were small and slow right and like just from the safety position the linebacker position they don't close very quickly they don't tackle as well in space as you're accustomed to seeing from a shaman tournament defense the eagles for as much as the passing game has improved they still are not great at hitting the we get the ball to our athletes in space and let them create after the catch button right dallas goddard saquon barkley squeeze uh screens and swings and flat routes they have it a couple of times they they can't really make it the main course and you'd love to see them be able to do that against buffalo i i remain hesitant that they can yeah this is a good test though for the i understand like the stakes for philadelphia aren't maybe i mean you know it's still possible to get that two seed but i would love to see this offense continue showing some growth against this particular defense um it would be great if you're an eagles fan and you watch this team over the last few weeks if they come out and they can run the ball on buffalo because you know the 2024 eagles against the bills i'm like yeah grind him down, baby.

46:43Ben Solak:And they're trying stuff and I feel like we're going to see a lot of six offensive linemen. We're going to see a lot of Hurts under center. The Bills defense, it's funny too because there are games where they show up against the run kind of weirdly. But it feels very matchup specific for them. I would also, by the way, if I'm Philadelphia, I would be a little bit not apprehensive, but I expect McDermott and Babich to throw a lot at Jalen Hurts in terms of the types of pressures that they use. They use a lot of very creative, and they mix up their pressure calls a lot in different downs. They're not predictable this year, which of course has been an issue for Hurts at times with simulated pressures and fire zones and whatnot.

47:28Ben Solak:So could give him some troubles in the passing game. So torn here. I think Buffalo's got a clear advantage. I think Buffalo's ability. Yeah, after this conversation, we were so like Buffalo can run on them in Philadelphia. The Eagles have the arrow pointed in the right direction offensively to be able to play against a team like Buffalo. They have absolutely improved offensively over the last month. You and I talked after that Chargers game. We were like, listen, that was bad. Directionally, though, some of the choices, we seem to be figuring some things out in terms of the scheme. It's just if I had another three weeks of data and it was improving over time, I'd be there.

48:02I just don't have it yet, and so I lean Buffalo.

48:04Ben Solak:I'm such a believer in this Eagles defense. This is kind of it's weird because the bills every bills game is like can they stop the run and It is They might have you know along Chicago's is like the thing of us running rushing attack in football also, so It's very it's just a difficult matchup for them. They could absolutely win this game If they are able to continue to run the ball the way that they have But like you said, it's more wait-and-see with Philadelphia worth Buffalo. We know what this wrong game It's a one-and-a-half point line. It's very close whenever it's games like this. I always ask myself okay like bills down 14 in the second half how what do you think what do you think happens like what do you trust then if you flip it other direction eagles down 14 and a half what do you think is going to happen what do you think what do you trust like the bills just have a lot more scripts where they're able to win this thing versus the eagles it's got to follow a particular path of note jake elliott no jake elliott's never missed a kick don't worry about it it's fine it's the combination of the jake elliott and then the tush push not working or being an issue that's another thing who do you that's that's a crazy question okay who do you trust on force and short more the philadelphia eagles or the buffalo bills that's a very good question bills right like for sure bills just because like what and like the eagles defense isn't particularly good against sneaks which always has been very funny to me you think that like they know what is the worst thing to deal with um so bills for sure and then but kicker wise like it's what it's it's elliot who's in a bad spot right now and then who's kicking right now for the bills crater right isn't prater down they had somebody they badgely in they badgely oh that's bad too yeah we're gonna see a lot of fourth downs what's the weather in buffalo i didn't even it's tuesday i haven't even looked at my weather reports yet this is tough uh yeah okay i'm gonna stick with oh definite snow showers oh slop ball i'm thrilled all right Bears Niners so the Chicago Bears as we alluded to um the division is still up for grabs if Green Bay wins both they have to win at least one of the games and they have the Lions Lions would love nothing more than to be a spoiler for the Bears in week 18 uh and then the one seed is also uh see if Seattle loses one they win out of course the Niners can win out and get the one seed even if both teams win so point is you know a lot to play for here uh yeah the niners so the niners want to win out too big big deal here big big big game uh you can go first here you're on the bears i'm on the niners i'm calling this game the niners versus the old niners yeah just because of how that the offense offensively yeah it's like kyle shanahan facing like the ghost of kyle shanahan's pass it really is like in terms of like offensive players who i'm seated for like this is as special as it gets the key for the bears is listen you're averaging over a turnover a takeaway per game let's get three in this one let's get four we ain't getting stops all right like this is this bears defense man i like i i i have a lot of belief in where and how the bears are like directionally they're improving over time shots had a wonderful tweet this week where he said, listen, the Bears are 16th in DVOA.

51:15If you look at weighted DVOA, they're 10th, right? Like we walked into that first Packers game, that first Eagles game. So we said, all right, the Bears have beaten a lot of bad teams in close games. Let's see what they're made of. And okay, they lost to the Packers. Okay. Like they barely snuck, you know, big lucky stuff in the second one. But overall, like in terms of advanced metrics, this Bears team is very clearly getting better week over week. They're pressuring the quarterback more, right? Austin Booker has added to that pass rush. Jalen Johnson came back. Tremaine Edmonds has come back.

51:40Their coverage has been a little bit better with that said this is still by any measure recent season long just a below average defense in a success rate and yards per play and downside conversion rate in the red zone except for one thing they get the god dang football and and that feels like it's it's frail it's got to be frail it's got to be regressing but the thing about turnovers being so luck oriented is that in any one game you can still have a two turnover game you still have even if you've been lucky over the course of the season, it'll, it will regress eventually, but in a one-off against the 49ers against a quarterback who throws a lot of lollipops over the middle of the field against a offensive line that gives up a decent amount of penetration.

52:19You can get your takeaways. And so for Chicago, like their defense has become very difficult to talk about because it definitely is improving. And, and they're definitely like, they very clearly are attacking the football at every opportunity. So there is like legitimate skill thing here to talk about, but this entire plane is built out of turnovers and they need them again against the Niners.

52:36Ben Solak:Dude, Malik Willis, move the ball on them like with i like the league was i just you know i don't know improvement all right uh well here comes the niners and this is our chance to talk about monday night game who buddy that offense was a buzzsaw against indianapolis so far i so much to talk about i mean brock purdy was unbelievable some of he was just so accurate throwing downfield and and he has so much conviction in and you know we talk about brock purdy and what does he bring to the offense And there's multiple things he does above and beyond other Niners quarterbacks, one of which is a willingness to push the ball downfield, which matters, of course, against Chicago Bears defense that has given up the most deep ball touchdowns of any defense in football, tied for New York 29th in terms of most 20-yard-plus completions.

53:21Ben Solak:So there you go. And also his ability to extend plays as well. But when you watch him play, he just has such conviction in the Cotten and offense. and then you watch the plays and you're like yeah you should i mean oh my god kyle shanahan ate indianapolis's lunch i would just going back and watching him the way he uses motion formation to get guys open but also like christian mccaffrey uh so many of the explosive plays even though the niners aren't it's funny because they're not a good running team this year um cmc it's it's gone from and it's funny because right we talked about like the old niners versus the new niners in ways it used to be cool we're a play action passing attack and we're going to manipulate kashan and we're going to manipulate defenses with the run action and they still do that to some degree and they hit on like the play action shot to sky more was an example of that but now it's like cool you're terrified of kristen mcafree as a pass catcher on literally every down and if you watch the all 22 if you watch the defense the way they respond to even the slightest movements from cmc as a pass catcher and the way that opens up things downfield is just like incredible and when like i remember when mcafree first joined the offense at 23 and he started to be really productive as a receiver and it was like okay like this is great but breeze hall is also very productive as a receiver this year like you know there's other guys who do this if you go and you look at like depth of target and depth of route there is no running back in the world who operates the way that McCaffrey does.

54:58The other guys that get targets behind the line of scrimmage, they run after the catch, it's part of like the check down game. They try to get McCaffrey into the stem. They try to get him into the route combinations because when you give a player like that, the ability to run like, you know, the weak side option route, the classic like slot option route, like, you know, the Drew Brees route for 10 billion years. If you play that with just one guy, McCaffrey is going to turn the other direction and he will be open. And so you end up getting a level of gravity. You get a vice, right? You read the squeeze where those two linebackers come down and now you've lost two bodies in the middle of the field against the goat middle of the field opener right with with all the crossing routes and the digger out so on and so forth which it is the degree to which mcafree has gravity when he is vertical off the line of scrimmage that is not a thing you can say about any other running back in in the world right now very unique even i mean

55:43Ben Solak:going back and i'm just watching some of all the so many of the explosives you can see his gravity on the defense and but even like a play like the kid will touchdown where brock's on the right sideline he's extending it's great this is why brock purdy is different from mac jones we get that he looks him he all he does is looks at mccaffrey during the play he's rolling to his right and the safety cam binance like oh and then it makes a window for george kittle it's i mean it's just and i i have i have half a theory that because the receivers are banged up like this was happening last year and this year defense coordinators go like okay well like you know take away mccaffrey take away kittle and if demarcus robinson beats us if kendrick born beats us they do it's like buddy it could be me and me no running routes out there for the points it doesn't matter all right i will say the receivers too though i mean the they really are well coached on this team i think that's worth noting too i mean sky more becoming a productive receiver is hilarious uh but juan jennings robinson like kendrick born yeah kendrick born the route spacing is always perfect like when you watch them um and some of them you know it's it's it's not like guys are wide-ass open.

56:49Ben Solak:There's rocks making tight window throws downfield, and his placement on outs in this game was excellent. Anyways, all this is to say, I do think San Francisco is going to be able to move the ball on this very gettable Bears defense. But great news, Bears fans. San Francisco can't stop the run. You could throw a last night out. I'm not convinced. I do not believe one day in this one defense. Every team that plays the Phillip Rivers version of the Colts will be able to stop the run, because every single team will be like, alright, let's just not let Jonathan Taylor beat us and wait for a third and long.

57:19it like bears offense against 49ers defense is actually officially like hydrogen bomb versus coughing baby this one i will give you with that for this instance the bears ability to get heavy and run the football like vertically with physicality i guess a 49ers team that is going to want to stay in the nickel is going to want to stay in four down fronts and doesn't have good second or third level play in terms of like they have malik mustafa who's like an absolute delight i love mustafa but in general their ability to play the run through the spine of the defense you know demons attack with the linebacker to safety it's it's really really it's really rough against these heavy personnel teams chicago might be able to put like i want to say chicago possess the ball for 45 minutes but they won't because they'll hit too many explosives like they won't be able to like make the field long enough ah this is what makes this game so hard

58:02Ben Solak:like i think both of these offenses are so much better than both of these defenses

58:11god this is in san francisco yeah uh bears are three point dogs on the road in san francisco it is also a night game sunday night game uh for those of you playing at home i think i'm gonna go niners here

58:25Ben Solak:bears fans i just picked against the i just picked the bears to beat the packers so uh expectation is that we should be able to see at least luther burden back for this game uh he was a little bit touch and go in terms of his availability for the backers game Rome is a trickier one. This is a foot injury. It's been described as week to week. In general, when I see foot injury, I six to five and pick them. Feet can be extremely challenging to deal with it. Like you're your health and then you have regressions. Like Brock Birdie of all people should know like how tough those can be. And so if there's no Rome and no burden, just a lack of pass catching options to me leads 49ers in this game.

59:01If we get at least one of the two back, then we have the ability to get the play action pass a little bit more reliably. I think the 49ers are the better team. I think they win it. 56 minutes into that game, the Bears had no offensive touchdowns. They had operational issues there at home still in this offense. Caleb, for as delightful as he's been, you do get the early throwaways. You do get the early pressures off the left side with Ozzy Trappio, and it just kind of breaks how beautiful the offensive system is. You can break it at some of the weak points. And so I lean 49ers. With that said, this game can absolutely, in a lot of universes, go the way of that Eagles-Bears game where it's just like, hey, we're going to rush for 286 yards.

59:40You have no prayer to stop us. Good night.

59:43Ben Solak:Let's have a quick conversation about the Niners. Because the one seed is in play sneakily. And if they win this game, right? And then week 18 is going to be an amazing game. We saw last night, it took Brock a second to get healthy. He's back to playing his best football. He was excellent. The offense, even without like Pierce, buzzsaw. oh shanahan one of his best games i thought is this offense good enough in a flawed playoff field to compensate for what i believe is to you know a really compromised defense strokes run defense pass rush isn't good enough get a ball in the back end okay i get that's like everything about defense yep think about the field can they win can they make it to the super bowl with that imbalance.

1:00:34No, I'm a big niner seller as we go to the postseason. In terms of things I like, I talk with all the time, things I believe come into the postseason, got to be able to rush the passer. And then that's like a non-negotiable for me. They don't have that ability. I think you need multiple field tipping players on offense. And I think they do when they have Kittle and McCaffrey, it's obviously a little bit of a weirder build because you're typically expecting to be the wide receiver spot. But then like the other third enormous tenant for me in the postseason is you got to be multifaceted. You have to be versatile.

1:00:59You cannot have only one mode of winning and they are not a team that generates defensive stops and they are not a team that can run the football well and sit on you in the second half they win one sort of game right now where it's we are out the gate so fast and so aggressively that we build a point total that you are just not able to bridge right and we saw even like that game gets the panthers which they won if you just get like two brock lollipops which brock like i've always been pro brock and there was a whole like mvp moment like people like you hate brock you know i've always been like brock is like this is good you're clearly better than jim he enhances the offense brock like you said will throw some tight windows and he does so without elite velocity and so you are always liable for like a two interception brock pretty first half you get that game like they can throw their way back from a lot of deficits but it's just their their outs are very thin relative like a rams and a seahawks team which to me are a lot more versatile yeah you're looking at the

1:01:51Ben Solak:seahawks rams and eagles defenses i think are the ones where you're like oh they can get a few stops you start to worry a little bit week 18 we can kind of revisit because that's going to be a very good referendum i think on this conversation these teams play in a week one that was when the niners defense was healthy yeah it's a very different unit so i am skeptical but the offense is really good man yeah i think i think that like that most recent memory of that colts game like it looked unstoppable i think they've been stoppable enough this season that but I feel like the postseason run is hard to get through.

1:02:28This game against the Bears, I don't know. Going back to game script stuff, I can see a lot of worlds where the 49ers are up 14-17, and then the Bears got to throw their way back in. That's scary. Versus the flip side, even if the Bears get that big lead, this passing game can do a six-play 90-yard drive on Chicago in a heartbeat. I still lean 49ers, but I don't know. Chicago is improving. They really, really are.

1:02:50Ben Solak:Yeah. I'm not offense. I'm not. I'm not buying the two, uh, three seed bears or five seed 49ers who goes further into the playoffs? Well, so the, the Niners are playing the Panthers, right? Or the bucks. Those are our most likely outcomes right now. I guess 16, 16 Niners. Yeah. And the NFC playoff starts. Yeah. With a three seed bears and the 16 Niners, who do you trust more? I think I trust Chicago more to make a run than the 49ers do. Then I trust the 49ers. I mean, if the Niners, yeah, it depends on the matchups. I hate to say that, but that's good. All right, let's rapid fire the rest of the games, as promised.

1:03:30Ben Solak:We alluded to Bucs, Dolphins. I mean, this is, you know, Quinn Ears, so I'm taking the Bucs here. A lot of whispers in Miami right now about them moving on from Tua, Tango Filoa, keeping McDaniel, which is interesting. Well, I'll react to that when it happens, and I don't think we need to get into the dead money and stuff like that. But Tampa is flailing right now. That defense is really – it's funny because, obviously, Baker played poorly in the interception, whatever. But the defense is just not good enough at the moment. No. Tampa is going to win this game because they need to to make the Panthers game matter.

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1:06:17Ben Solak:application times and rates may vary no need to talk pats jets both on the pats i assume we both talked about the ceos and the browns steelers for me but the dk injury makes it a little i'll pick browns to differ it i think that game's gonna be tight it's gonna be closed like classic afc north winter game late game of the season spoiler sort of stuff i'll pick the browns bangles cardinals joe bro rediscovered his love of football by stomping the queen ewers dolphins I'm just kidding I'm completely disengaged from this Joe Burrow story and I will remain so for as long as possible Taking the Bengals Same It's a fun one Sneakly Saints, Titans Two feisty rookie quarterbacks Saints add Titans, have you seen the line?

1:07:01Ben Solak:Saints are favored, wow Two and a half Talked about, I think you and I did about how this like Brandon Staley Saints defense is quietly taken improved yep i i they're better than the titans defense that's for sure titans defense is like eighth in pressure rate over the last like month month and a half of the season there they are they're finding some stuff it could be worse than it was but it's getting better where they are in dvoa let's see on the season what's your guess titans defense oh man 26th and what's your guess for the saints 18th it's a good guess all right let's see the most underwhelming reveal of all time the titans are 26 and the saints are 13th wow man if i've been thrilled shout out to brandon staley yeah doing a lot with a little man kool-aid mckinster yonas sanker chase young's having a great season they are they are they're getting the best they can out of the pieces they've got um yeah anyways i'm taking this here i like the saints here i will say that i do think the saints are getting overvalued in the market right now like the whole like man tyler shuck officer rookie of the year dude you all got to watch the tyler shuck film no one's saying that i there are the problem is i run in like gambling circles where everybody's trying to find five billion to one odds there are tyler shuck rookie of the year believers okay well you know at the in the off season we'll have the time to talk about tyler shuck i think it is notable that he is you know the outside of chris olave it's like you know he's he's doing a lot a little i'm not a believer in the saints offensive line i i think he has shown enough for saints fans to feel some enthusiasm about him especially given the quarterback draft and whatnot but that's a conversation for another day yes and no running i mean yeah okay uh jags colts on the jags here this is an important game very important you know we alluded to it i'm i'm very i'm very curious how up the colts get for this game like they're home again divisional opponent but also like the shine is wearing off in this whole like this is fun now it's like oh this is very sad and pathetic um so i think jags big but still weird game raiders giants

1:09:10we're we're we're the winners of this game all right this is for the first overall pick this is thrilling the schedule makers are wow that makes this really hard to pick i i i want to meet the nfl schedule maker so bad they they amaze me every year this is unbelievable they banked this week 17 they got the one and the two overall pick tied for whoever loses this wins the game it's a crazy call from distance I'm thrilled for this game front of the show Charles McDonald

1:09:33Ben Solak:had a post about there about like maybe the Giants should consider a quarterback that was aggregated by yeah who's sports yep uh all right oh my god I mean I'm gonna pick the Raiders just because I think Pete Carroll will do pull a, um, not lovey Smith. Who, who was the, uh, David, the Texans. It was, it was Davis mills playing for the lovey Smith. Oh, it was lovey Smith. Lovey Smith ended up being, you know, well, uh, okay. What about you? Uh, I also lean Raiders, the Pete Carroll presser at the end where it was going to be like, any thoughts about like, you know, this game for draft positioning piece can be like men compete.

1:10:14And in the world, you got to care for something. I can't wait. I think the Raiders win.

1:10:17Ben Solak:Mike Kafka is getting the call. fourth quarter shut down uh and then finally ramps falcons this is the game that matters to the rams in part because the draft pick belongs to them uh rams win this and win this big falcons have like done their best to win these games and make the traffic hurt less the rams are gonna you know put it back in the top 10 where it belongs oh i didn't pick enough underdogs today but there's nothing i'm looking back at it we didn't do um did we do like carolina to cover we do the Thursday games did we talk Cowboys Commanders Lions Vikings oh I know I just picked them on my own okay Dallas Commanders taking the the Cowboys here yeah so they the Cowboys are big favorites and I think the Cowboys probably still win but Commanders if if Mario can go is interesting to me if it's Josh Johnson and it's it's Sam Hartman but not so much Lions Vikings so officially out I don't yeah so okay then it's the Lions if McCartney was playing this would be compelling to me because I think Brian Flores, I won't say he laid down the blueprint against the Lions because the Lions have been struggling with interior pressure all year, but watching the way Pittsburgh was blitzing Jared Goff and particularly challenging Jameer Gibbs in pass protection did take me back to the Brian Flores game against Jared Goff earlier in the season.

1:11:36Ben Solak:I have seen a lot of defensive coordinators brought up from that. Yeah. And even then, like in the running game, they don't even need to because it was like Keanu Benton and Cam Hayward against Kingsley Equicon and Christian Mahogany left guard. The Lions are in dramatic and desperate need of an interior offensive line facelift this offseason. It's one of the biggest gaps on any team, contender or not contender in football right now. Lions win, though. I'll do a pod at some point that's kind of like, what does every team that missed the playoffs have to fix? It's pretty glaring with Detroit and pretty obvious.

1:12:06It's sad because it was kind of like the takeaway from week one

1:12:10Ben Solak:against Green Bay. that was the game where everybody was like, oh, this is going to be a problem. And then it's kind of how the season ended. Well, the defense actually is more responsible for the final loss, but it remained a problem all year long for Detroit, the pass protection. And not just in turn or pass protection either. Yes, which is the quiet part out loud. We talked about the left tackle. All right, Denver, Kansas City, Denver, favored by 13. They actually want to win this game. So, yeah. And I mean, like it is the chiefs with no offensive line against the Broncos and with QB three Chris Aladacon in this game.

1:12:46Like this is going to be the worst chiefs loss of the last eight years. And that's like the last time they played the Broncos with Carson Wentz. They lost like 34 to nothing, dude. Like it's about to happen again.

1:12:57Ben Solak:All right. That's it for this week. We'll be back for to recap with Dominique. we're just going to do a recap we're not going to just talk about the Rams Falcons game and then we'll be previewing the rest of the season a couple quick notes for everybody first of all anyone who listens to the show you can also check it out on YouTube where we just passed 100 ,000 subscribers yay I think they sent you a plaque so I'm looking forward to oh yeah got a spot for it in the backdrop you got to get it Yeah, very nice. You can also check out my television pod with Dave Dennis Jr. We are recapping the finale of Pluribus.

1:13:41Ben Solak:Are you watching the show, Ben? I'm not watching any shows. I'm watching Miss Rachel, baby. That's what we got going. We lost a book about Miss Rachel and Elmo. It's like Miss Rachel and Elmo doing a before school routine. And it is literally like a code red in my house because my kid is so mad about this book being missing. We've got a Santa book in the house and Lydia just keeps pointing at Santa and going, da-da, da-da, da-da. And I'm like, nothing alike, man. Nothing at all. Interesting. Like also check out the King of Collectibles. It's from Omaha Productions, who makes this podcast. Of course, all episodes of season three are now out on Netflix following Ken Golden, who's the most powerful dealmaker in the collectibles world as he brokers the biggest, rarest finds.

1:14:32Ben Solak:Be sure to check that out. as this season features some really big items. Ben, do you collect anything? I collect zero things. But being the most powerful collector in the world, it feels like Ash Ketchum. It feels like Pokemon got to catch them all. He's a powerful deal maker. I don't know if he's hanging. I guess you got to watch the show to find out. So check out the... I was a big collector as a kid. I collected marbles, seashells, rocks at one point. Very magpie-esque. Just for the nest, just for at home. Snow globes. I think I've gotten rid of all my little trash skis. But in any case, check that out on Netflix.

1:15:06Ben Solak:And happy holidays, everybody. Thank you so much to everybody who listens to this. Very grateful for you, the best listeners on earth. Thank you also, of course, to our friends at Omaha who make this show, Kirsten Sebecki, Owen Saylor, Tucker Tashin, Jack Foster. You guys are the best. And I'll see you, will it be in the new year? No, before the new year. Okay, so I wish you a happy new year. Later.

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