The MAGA Agenda Is Sinking in Popularity. What Might Donald Trump Do?

0:00Did you notice that now they've hung a gigantic banner of Donald Trump on the outside of the Department of Justice, kind of like the one they hung before on the outside of the Department of Labor. It's like Pyongyang on the Potomac over here. This one's even bigger. Oh, it is? It's huge. It's literally like dog peeing on fire hydrant. Also, by the way. You know, like I own the Department of Justice. The other thing that's notable about it is I know how these things go because, I mean, having been to Pyongyang, having lived in societies where they get into this kind of competitive obeisance, what you end up eventually is a statue of the boss that you can see from space.

0:41That's the only direction this is going. This is going there. Well, maybe the arc to Trump will turn out to have a humongous statue of him on top of it. Welcome to The Political Scene from The New Yorker, a weekly discussion about the big questions in American politics. I'm Jane Mayer, and I'm joined by my colleagues Evan Osnos and Susan Glasser. Hi, Evan. Good morning, guys. Hi, Susan. Hey there. So great to be with you. I want to start today by reading a list. These are the things Donald Trump said he would do on day one in office. End inflation. Bring down the price of eggs. End the war in Ukraine.

1:29Launch the largest deportation operation in American history. And be a dictator for just one day. That was his promise. Next Tuesday, Trump is going to walk into the House chamber for the State of the Union address and tell the American people how he thinks it's going. He'll claim he deserves an A+++. But before he gets to make the case, today we wanted to examine where does the country actually stand? What does it mean that so many Americans, including some who voted for Trump, are having buyer's remorse? and with the midterm elections looming, what are the Republican and Democratic Party's strategies?

2:11To kick things off, I want to start with a big picture question. Heading into the State of the Union, is Trump in political danger? What do you think? Well, to a certain extent, right, the question is not, is he in political danger, but what is he going to do about it? And I think, you know, you have the most divisive polarizing president in American history. He's sagging in the polls. He's at the low end of where he's been. But essentially, the question is, how much of a reaction are we going to get from Donald Trump? Is he accountable to any laws of political physics? And we can all say this, that he seems extremely uneasy and focused even to the point of obsession about the midterm elections.

2:58At the same time, he's been very, very unable to focus on what his White House keeps claiming at any day now is going to be his laser-like focus on the economy and the, quote-unquote, affordability agenda. But, you know, Donald Trump isn't with the program, right? He says in a sort of funhouse mirror version of Joe Biden that he's conquered the affordability issue. He's won already on that. And so, you know, what I'm going to be watching for next week is can Donald Trump even get through a speech? If you look at his recent performances over the last year, what you see is a sort of a decline, right?

3:36Physically, mentally, in his ability to focus on things, in a decline in his ability to sort of look at the parameters of American politics. Really interesting that you're looking at him as like how out of control he might be at the podium, because I know you've talked before about how the speeches have gotten longer and longer as one metric. Evan, what do you think? Is he in political danger, do you think? What are you watching for? Well, in some ways, every day you see him lose some more people and take some more power. That's the central dynamic here. So, Susan, you mentioned that extraordinarily eloquent moment when this ginormous poster went up on the Justice Department this week, his face.

4:21You see him wielding the power ministries like the Justice Department in ways that were even more extraordinary than we expected. I think there's a telling measure here, which is the way that his judges, and I use his advisedly, have been helping him achieve this. There was a study done recently that found that overwhelmingly the judges that Trump has put on the appellate courts have sided with him in more than 90 percent of the cases that have come up. Overall, though, if you ask the public, what are they feeling? I think the dominant sensation is even for people who who wanted him. There's this sense that it's sort of like, waiter, this is not what I ordered.

5:07But it's right. It's the out of controlness of it. in an almost inchoate way because it's so many different fronts. Nobody can really say, like, what is Trump trying to do right now except wield power for its own sake? I mean, Jane, do you see it? Well, I came, I actually made a little checklist. I wrote down on one side of a piece of paper his successes and the other side his failures to try to do a report card for him. And I tried to do it, stripping it of my own values and politics just to see how I thought he'd stack up in his own lights. And I came away somewhat appalled because I came away thinking, actually, he's been kind of astoundingly successful by his own lights, which are corporate America has become complicit and cooperative with him.

6:00In terms of asserting unitary executive control. He's got a kind of a power control, as you guys are talking about, over the executive branch that's personal. He's gotten rid of the civil service. He has, in terms of having power over Congress, they're completely supine. His own party has bowed down to him there. He has managed to spill over all of the congressional guardrails that would stop him from appropriating money for the programs that he wants to, waging war, taking over Venezuela. And I think on one level, we have to think also about what his own personal goals are. He wants to be rich.

6:43This man and his family have made almost$4 billion in office. Now, these are his goals, not our goals. That's a key point. I think it's kind of surprising when you look at what he's been able to consolidate in a democracy in one year, despite erratic rule and all the other things. And I think we're beginning to see autocratic backlash that we talked about with Ruth Ben-Ghiat last week. And there's some overkill on the two issues that he got elected on. The economy, people are not feeling that he's delivered. I think you guys are right. And then I think on his other signal program, which is deporting undocumented immigrants, there's a growing backlash to the cruelty and overkill in it.

7:29So I was surprised when I looked at this thinking, by his own lights, not by mine, he's done a lot. Right. It's going to be hard to put that in a speech though. Now, I think that's what's interesting to your point, that he has a personal agenda for a personalist style of power. But in a State of the Union address, you have to make the pitch for yourself and your party going into an election. And what's striking there is actually a lot of Trump's rhetoric is a sort of a word fog to disguise the fact that he's actually had a very hard time when it comes to the substantive parts of his agenda. For example, the economy last year was a terrible year for jobs overall, a lot of focus on the relative bright spot of the American stock market, much less focus.

8:20And, you know, we're not sort of economists here, but a friend of mine who is very plugged into this made the point to me the other day that, OK, so the stock market had a good year last year, but people don't pay attention to the relative decline of the in value of the U.S. dollar, which declined as much as the stock market has gone up. I mean, the key thing that he ran on was he's the businessman who's going to make your lives economically better, right? Isn't that the core of the proposition? And what do you see today? In some ways, one of the most revealing statistics when you look at the condition of the business mood out there is that people aren't hiring very much.

8:59New jobs are way down. That is one of the really telling statistics because what it means is people feel uncertain. And businesses don't feel confident about where things are going in order to invest, in order to hire new people on board. And that ripples out across the economy. If you're not getting new jobs, that means people feel uneasy about where they are. You see this showing up in the polling data. People who are asked, are you better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? Which, as we all know, is sort of the core of the political proposition. How do you feel compared to a year ago?

9:34Only 17 percent of Americans will say they are better off than they were a year ago. And twice that will say they're worse off. I mean, that's absolutely true. If you talk to any businessman, they will tell you they're not hiring because it's the uncertainty that Trump has created that makes them unable to take the risk of bringing people on board because they're just not sure what's happening next. I mean, it's also interesting that after all of this talk in tariffs, we've just had new balance of trade numbers that show that there's no big difference after all of this, you know. And so, I mean, it depends what metrics you apply here, of course.

10:10But, you know, we can talk a little bit more about foreign policy and our relationships with our immediate neighbors, Canada and Mexico. I mean, they've deteriorated unbelievably. And it's always been one of the great strengths of the United States that we have these great neighbors and great trade with them. But I think on the economy, he's in the same fix Biden was in, where he's trying to yell at people and tell them, you are better off than you think you are. And that we know doesn't work. Susan, you pay a lot of attention to how the U.S. looks around the world. You know, you're talking to folks in other countries.

10:43I'm sort of curious. You know, there has just been a huge amount of activity over the course of the last year. Trump obviously said he was going to end the war in Ukraine on day one. We know that. That war continues on. I'm struck by the fact that here we are. It's right now, you know, we're in the middle of the Olympics in Italy. There is talk about an Olympic boycott in the United States, perhaps. I mean, that is a pretty telling measure of where we are. I mean, if you had to give a report card here, you know, for a year into the Trump 2.0 era, what you would say is that America is more isolated in the world than it has been.

11:19It has scared the crap, basically, out of our friends and given heart to our adversaries. And, you know, this is a really sort of shocking reimagining of the world. I think that you've seen a new national security doctrine from the Trump administration that suggests that he sees himself as sort of a, you know, kind of a czar of the Western Hemisphere, basically. and, you know, moving very aggressively. Jane mentioned Venezuela. We're also effectively blockading Cuba at the moment. We have the threats to Greenland, which have caused not only, you know, convulsions, you know, here, but I think was really a breakpoint for many of our European allies and partners who I think are coming out of the last few months in a profoundly different place than I've ever heard before, really understanding that the basic sort of compact that held between the U.S.

12:15and Europe ever since World War II has sort of entered a new phase. You have, at the same time, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, who have an adversarial relationship still with us because there are so many national conflicts that Donald Trump can't simply override them. But at the same time, they see someone who wants to deal with them much more on their own terms. So I think it's a very perilous moment, in my view, for Trump personally as well. We talked about this last week, but just if he is in trouble here domestically, politically, I think we have to broaden the list of things that he might do internationally.

12:53And that's where I look at what's happening in the Middle East with this flotilla of lethal force being assembled against Iran. I think, wow, he might do something there that I don't think he would have done in his first term. It's a level of reckless international adventure that's going to lead a lot of consequences. Very much agree with you. We may be in the preamble here to war with Iran, which to return to the to a key point where we started, waiter, this is not what I ordered. I don't know how many Americans looked out and said, gosh, what I'd really like to achieve in my life over the course of the next two years is war with Iran.

13:32And I think you could actually take the same principle and apply that to how Americans are looking at the immigration campaign. There is a sense, yes, that was one of the issues that people wanted addressed. They wanted something to be done on immigration, but did they want this? We now know it's measurable. The fact is he's underwater on immigration substantially. This is not an issue that people feel good about. And what I think is kind of telling, and I think, Susan, you mentioned this early on, Jane, you've also addressed this idea that people just feel fundamentally that things are out of control.

14:05That is one of the dominant sensibilities that shows up in the polling data. There was one interesting question that I took note of that I think kind of drives home a bit of how people are feeling, which is, you know, standard polling question. People will say, you know, what are the words that you associate with this president? You know, mark the words that you associate with the president. For Biden, it wasn't good. Remember, they said he looked weak or they said, oh, that was always the key thing. And they're given options like you could mark bold or strong. Right now, Donald Trump's highest measurements are for divisive, corrupt, cruel, and number one, is dangerous at 50%.

14:46Whoa, whoa, whoa. It's only 50%. Well, that's my point. It's only 50%. Anyway, we are going to take a quick break. And when we come back with Trump's popularity dipping, is the Republican Party in trouble? The political scene from The New Yorker will be right back.

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16:07By historical standards, Trump's never been a popular president, but he's now losing support among some of the groups that voted for him in 2024, as well as from independents. In the latest YouGov poll this week, only 39 percent of people approved the way Donald Trump was handling his job as president. A majority regard his presidency as a failure. What are these numbers telling us and what do you make of Trump's reaction? And do you think it will impact how he governs in the coming months? You guys? I mean, look, actually, you know, that poll you cited might be on the high end of where a lot of the surveys are right now.

16:48The question is, is there a floor for Donald Trump? Like, what is the core MAGA base that, you know, is going to be with him to the end? And remember, by the way, there was about a third of the country that was supporting McCarthyism after McCarthy fell. There was about a third of the country that was supporting Richard Nixon after Richard Nixon was forced out of office. So one question is, what's the floor? And remember, the reason that matters is because we are in a midterm election year. Donald Trump isn't on the ballot. It's not a presidential election year. We're talking about congressional elections across the country that are in districts that have already been extensively gerrymandered by party.

17:26It's one of the reasons we have such a polarized country right now. So in these primary elections, one of the reasons you don't see Republicans coming out and dumping all over Donald Trump in the way that they might have in the past with such an unpopular president is because he still plays an outsized role in Republican primaries. And he still has a hold on the faithful of this party at least more than any other figure. So I think it's important to discuss it, you know, his popularity in the context of that. That's number one. Number two, though, there are real fissures and divisions among Republicans about all of Trump's policies, about what to do.

18:02And, you know, what I'm going to be paying attention to as we look at the primary season, which is about to unfold, is a what remains of the kind of pre or possibly post-Trump establishment voter. Is there such a thing as the country club Republican anymore? And how do they do in primaries? We'll see an early test of that in Texas coming up soon. They have an early primary and you have a Texas Senator John Cornyn who's up against the very, very out there far right Ken Paxton and other candidates. So let's see what are the elections tell us about, you know, the enduring power of MAGA at a time when Trump's overall agenda is sinking nationally.

18:44Evan, if Trump seems to be pushing out in a direction that's increasingly unpopular, even with some of the MAGA faithful, do you see any evidence that the people around him in the White House are able to rein him in or know how to deal with this, whether it's Suzy Wiles or Stephen Miller or any of the others? Well, we learned very clearly from Susie Wiles herself that she says that she's really never had one of these conversations where she goes into the Oval Office and tells him you can't do this. That's just doesn't see that as her role. I think one of the fascinating errors that the people around Trump have made is mistaking devotion to him as devotion to them.

19:29So you see this over and over. So, of course, you know, J.D. Vance thinks, well, Trump's popular with our people. Maybe I'll be popular with our people. Kristi Noem, prime example. Last week, we talked about the absolute chaos inside the Department of Homeland Security. We've talked today about the unpopularity of the immigration campaign. There's even talk, actually, just some reports about maybe Kristi Noem would find a way to make her way back home to South Dakota, maybe run for the Senate instead of sticking around in Washington. Look, I think Kash Patel is another prime example. Here's a guy who thinks I've got the tailwind of Trumpism behind me when, in fact, he is in many respects very unpopular and doing things that I think bother the public.

20:08Does it matter that the FBI director is unpopular? I mean, that's where the lack of accountability comes in. And also our basic assumptions that we still live in kind of, you know, a dysfunctional version perhaps, but basically live in the democracy that we have all grown up with or not. And that's the thing that I would like to put out there because I think it's very important. We have to talk about the politics of the elections, but at the same time, the politics of the country as how they affect the people wielding power. Kash Patel has been given unimaginable power within our system. You know, we have FBI directors appointed for 10-year terms, meant to be nonpartisan officials.

20:49And yet what's happened is a perversion of the basic concept of the law by which Congress, you know, hands over this power to the executive branch. And what does it matter to anyone except for Donald Trump? Donald Trump, on some level, right, is the only person at this point who can rein in Kash Patel. Does anyone here think he's going to be reined in? No, of course not. He's, you know, the question is Donald Trump pushing him to do more and more and more to advance his agenda of revenge and... I think there's an... I agree. I agree. And again, this is why when I made my report card, I thought, my God, they've managed to do all of this, to personalize the power and institute corruption at every level.

21:31But I do think, I was just thinking about Kash Patel and how safe he is in that position. There is a point at which competence matters, and especially with something like the FBI. And, you know, if you watch sort of the Nancy Guthrie, the terrible story going on and on about them unable to find a suspect, let alone locate her, I think there's an opening. Put it this way. If you had an effective opposition, they could take on this administration on the simple issue of incompetence, I think. But anyway - Before we get to the opposition, because we are, in fact, I think we should devote a lot of time to that.

22:11I actually want to get your guys' sense of, this gets right to the question of does any of this matter? The answer lies in what is the Republican Party right now? You know, look, when you lose Marjorie Taylor Greene, that is a sign of something happening. Well, that's what I wonder. Is there a fissure? So that's the question. Well, I put the question to you guys. Well, again, like I think there is a real fissure. How consequential it is, you can look at it in two ways. You can look at, okay, let's keep a chart of the primaries and the elections and sort of who's winning these contested Republican primaries, or are there even a significant number of contested primaries?

22:50Are they going to dump the feckless Mike Johnson? Are they going to, you know, so you can look at it by the measure of elections, or you can look at it by the measure of the elected officials we already have. And here, what you see is Congress supine. What you see is, you know, I love the congressional press corps. It's so much more robust in many ways and aggressive than when I was a kid starting out in journalism at roll call. They're so on top of things. At the same time, it's like a machine that's set to the lowest setting. You know, they're so attuned to the slightest little hint of Republican opposition to Donald Trump that I would say there's been some premature claims of ebbing from the MAGA coalition.

23:33And, you know, what I see right now is that Trump has sort of broken the Republican Party at the national level, you know, that really you look at John Thune, who was, you know, meant to be the kind of maybe not Mitch McConnell level, but, you know, the establishment Senate majority leader who wouldn't go along with everything that Trump has. So far, he more or less has. So far, his conference more or less has. I agree. We do not see them breaking with Trump at this point, do we? I mean, they haven't even stood up for their own institutional interests. And I think that it's going to be harder for some of them to defend.

24:11I mean, one of the most effective early ads that I've seen so far in this election cycle, I don't know if you guys have seen it, is this ad in the main Senate race, Janet Mills, the governor running against Susan Collins in one of the only states in the country where it's still represented by a senator from a different party than the state went for in the presidential election. So Collins would probably be in trouble no matter what. Very concerned. I have a number of concerns. I'm also concerned. Collins is always concerned, but never courageous. Caving to Trump on health care. Concerned. On affordability.

24:46Concerned. On ICE. Concerned. I saw that ad. I got to say one other thing, though, where in looking for breaks within the MAGA base before we leave this behind, which is I think one crack is, believe it or not, over the Epstein scandal, which is that Trump cast himself in running as a populist who cared about the little people and was going to take on the rigged elites. And if you look at what's going on in far right social media, there's a lot of anger at him because they see him now as covering up for the elites in the Epstein matter and not on their side on this. And it's a crack out there.

25:30That's a really important point, Jane, because you see this in other ways, too. I mean, just this week, the Maha moms were up in arms. You know, the White House issued an executive order that increases production of this kind of weed killer that is a big issue in the Maha community. And you saw these really scorching quotes from people saying this was our thing. This was our issue. And he's now turned his back on us. So, you know, that's the question is it's this is a game of inches. So every day you lose a few more people. Does that begin? Well, but that's also where the pressure to be ever more extreme comes from, unfortunately, in our politics.

26:03And the Maha Moms are a great example of that, I have to say. Like, I almost couldn't sleep last night. Maybe, you know, different news events hit people differently. But, you know, there's been this measles outbreak in South Carolina. And there was a mother, all of their children not vaccinated against measles. But one of the kids became very ill with encephalitis. and there's the mother being quoted saying, the son, again, literally encephalitis, you know, essentially coma-like symptoms in a hospital and the mom saying, yeah, I would do it over again. I still wouldn't vaccinate my child. And I thought, you know, this is how we get extremism deeply entrenched in our politics because it's a game of inches to Evan's point.