Artists pressure Andy Burnham over oil; Grammys removes foot from mouth; More popstar football sponsors; and why aren't Berlin clubbers drinking as much?

0:03Hello there, welcome to the price of music brought to you by Music Ally. If you want an easy guide to what's going on in the music industry and how it all works, then here we are every week, looking at the finances of the music biz whilst bringing you stories and comments from the pop business in the past week. He is Stuart Dredge. I am Joe Sparrow. And let's get straight into it with Stu's big number, which is what this week, Stu?

0:27Stu:Okay, I'm not going with any of those silly small numbers this week. This is a big number. $121 billion. Now, I'm always very grateful when you bring the goods like this. That is a big number. Tell us more. This is how much recorded music will be worth globally in 2033, according to industry consultancy and media research, which knows its stuff but also knows full well that no one in 2033 is going to be checking back to see if it was right or not. Yeah, friends of the show, Media Research, a great organization that sort of puts these reports together saying what they think is going to happen in the music industry and with lots of data.

1:06And if that sounds very dry, it isn't. It's all really fascinating stuff. Now, for context, how much is the recorded music industry worth today?

1:16Stu:Well, so Media thinks it was worth$74.3 billion last year, 2025. So they were going to grow by about six years. Now, this sounds like a huge number, because I think people may remember the IFPI numbers. But this is all the money from recorded music, including the money that's kept by the streaming services, their share. So it's all revenue coming in. Okay. Yeah. Usually, numbers cover what the labels earn. Whereas this is everything, including the money made by the streaming services. So, yes. So that's why it's big. So it's like the whole economy around recorded music. And of course, folks, as a reminder, that means not songwriting royalties, and it's not merchandise, and not ticketing and live music.

1:57It's just around the recordings themselves. And as you said, this number is big, because I had in my mind this, you know, the number that the IFPI, this big industry body provides, is like, it's about 29 million at the moment they provide. And that's what goes to labels. Something like that, isn't it? It's in the, like, high 20s or low 30s.

2:16Stu:So this is a much bigger sort of ecological look at the whole thing. It's everything. I mean, so there was some stuff that jumped out at me. One is, so one is, here's an interesting thing. By 2003, media thinks that the top three countries in the world for the number of music subscribers, how many they've got, China will be the biggest, the most subscribers, US will be second, and India will be third. It won't be in the top five for the money from those subscribers, but it'll be the third biggest, the third most number of subscribers will be in India, which is something that whenever we see deals being done where major labels are doing deals with Indian companies there's a lot of activity happening there and that's because people are anticipating that India is going to kind of become the country in recorded music that its size, its population kind of deserves, I suppose.

3:08Now, I know Midea does all its research based on data and as you know, Stu, we are a very vibes-based podcast and sort of do it on feelings. But that does sort of feel right. doesn't it? Famously populous countries like India and China will be up there. Of course, we won't dwell too long on this, but in India at the moment, not a lot of people as a percentage of the populace are paying for music subscription. They generally, for various reasons, not just because it's free, use YouTube. Of course, Indian music historically is very visual oriented as well and there's a lot of what i find fascinating with india is sort of what you what people would call like smaller dialects and that's still spoken by 100 million people so um you know there's all there's it's all served in different ways and youtube seems to be fixing that but they think that people are going to be paying in the future yeah and this is the thing so china and india are

4:05Stu:kind of interesting countries because 20 years ago china was just a wasteland for music in terms of there was lots of music there, but it was all, everything was pirated. There were no sales. Yeah. And the government had a big crackdown on that. And then there became this huge legal streaming market no one was paying for. And now lots of people are paying for it and they're making good money. And I think in the IFPI's rankings, so they're the biggest money markets for music, China is now fourth, it's overtaken Germany. And so the music industry is really keen for India to follow that path. Like a country with a huge population, first get everyone onto legal streaming services then get them to pay for it and then get them to pay a bit more and so communities are backing that saying there will be a lot of people in India who will not just listen for free but they will pay and that's kind of exciting for the industry but it's also this is going to be on services like Spotify like YouTube so global services and so as more and more people are listening in India and subscribing so what they're listening to is going to have a platform to break out.

5:12Stu:So we could see what's happened with, for example, Mexico and Brazil are Houston markets, and then artists from Latin America started going big globally because they were doing so well there that Spotify's algorithm went, hey, maybe people would like Bad Bunny in the West. Let's try it. I do regret to inform everyone that the sort of naming procedure for Indian pop and Chinese pop is exactly the same as that for Korean pop and Japanese pop. So it's iPop and CPop respectively. And that does disappoint me quite a lot because the lack of imagination there is enormous. But of course, I mean, this is fascinating.

5:45And by the way, if you're interested in, you know, the sort of South Asia area, like India, we have, of course, Musical.ly South Asia, which is a service that we provide. You can sign up and get a free weekly email with all the news from this really exciting part of the world. I'll put the link below the podcast. But yes, a lot of assumptions here, isn't there, that these two countries that make up, a quarter of the world's population will adopt the same cultural practices as the West of signing up for these streaming platforms. And I mean, maybe they will or it would be exciting or at least interesting if they didn't, wouldn't it?

6:23Well, we'll check back in in 2033 and we'll see if those numbers are right and we'll call Mark from Midia and see if he'll come on and defend himself. Imagine that there could be bang on the money and he'll be running a lap of honour. Yes, and we can grovel to him and apologize for our cynicism. Some big stories then that have been going on this week. And interesting segue here. It looks like the Grammy Awards are going to quickly reverse ferret on their, quote, Asian pop category plans after a protest from up-and-coming indie group BTS. What has happened here? And why did the Grammys end up putting both of their feet in their mouths like this?

7:07Stu:Well, quite. So this happened earlier this year when the Recording Academy, which runs the Grammys, said we're going to have a new Best Asian Pop category. Yeah. Which is kind of, you know, the Grammys have always had genre categories like rock and hip-hop. And this was like, we're going to celebrate the amazing stuff coming out of Korea and Japan. Hurrah, everyone. And then right up until all seven members of BTS posted identical statements on their socials saying, yeah, we're not submitting. And they said, we want the music to be loved for what it is rather than divided by regional language.

7:43Stu:So essentially, very politely, and in a very characteristically polite but firm way, they said we don't want to be ghettoized in a best Asian, we want to be in all the main categories. There's no reason why BTS shouldn't be up for best pop album. It doesn't need an Asian qualifier. Yes. Now, of course, the Grammys, the Grammys has a lot of awards, doesn't it? We talk about it like, perhaps if you're based in the UK, you might think of the Brits, where there's about 10 awards every year given out. But the Grammys just has an almost infinite number of categories and awards that they give out every year.

8:18So at the moment, how does the Grammy break it down? Do they have a best South American or Latin?

8:26Stu:Well, they have Latin. That's another thing. They don't have best European. So traditionally, it's been genre-based. Right. rock hip-hop folk. And of course, the controversial urban category, which died a death, thankfully. Yeah, and this is one thing, in the past, for example, in the past, when hip-hop was kind of relegated to, it had its own categories, and obviously, you wouldn't have a hip-hop album as best pop album of the year. It would be in its own category. So this idea of having a ghetto has traditionally been pushed back against, and this is what's happening here, I think. Because also, Asian pop is, I mean, it's a kind of view of the world when you go, Asian pop, you know Chinese pop sounds like k-pop sounds like Japanese pop sounds like in p-pop from Philippines and they all sound the same don't they it's it's a terrible kind of way of thinking actually these are very distinct scenes with their own things and they don't all sound the same there's a lot of variety and lumping them together in a regional thing when you don't do that for Europe and you don't do that for so that was I was gonna say if they'd done this for the rest of the world if they'd said best European album and best North African album and best South American that it It kind of would have been all right, I think.

9:36Stu:Yeah, so that's one thing. But the thing is, BTS said we're not entering with that slightly gnomic comment. So initially, the Grammys defended the category. And then what's happened this week is that the CEO, Harvey Mason Jr., who is the boss of the Recording Academy, issued a statement acknowledging that some artists in this space feel this category isn't representing the music they work so hard to create. He also put in this thing he always puts in, which is that, as a musician myself, because he's always very, very keen to say, I'm not a corporate guy. I get you. Now, you might be being cynical, Steve, but I stream his music all the time.

10:11Stu:No, we know. It's good that he's a singer. But the thing is here, and basically he hinted that we are having conversations and there have been reports, I think Billboard had a report saying they are having very serious discussions with people from the various Asian pop industries. What do we do? How do we get out of this mess? How can we get to this? And there's a deadline here because we are recording on the 18th of August, Tuesday. the deadline to submit for the next Grammys is the 21st of August, this Friday. Oh, wow, they better turn that around pretty quick, eh? They've got to turn around whatever they're going to change to it, and then they have to persuade BTS to submit after all.

10:47Stu:And I think it's interesting, because I think if you're BTS, you're currently on a stadium sellout tour of the world. Yeah. And here's the thing. I don't think they've won a Grammy, have they, BTS? I think it's one of the famous, have never won a Grammy. You're asking the wrong person. I know. As someone who's a fan of neither entity. Well, so here's a theory. Like, there's a sense in the Grammys saying, we're going to have a category that gets all the K-pop stans involved in the Grammys. And we want to get them all, these massively hyper-engaged fan bases, talking about how great the Grammys is and who should win this year.

11:23Stu:And, you know, boosting its TV ratings and social metrics. You know, that felt like a sensible thing you want to do. Like, wow, there's this huge online army of fans. for groups from different countries in Asia. Let's get them in for the Grammys. But BTS essentially turned around and said, we don't need a Grammy stamp of approval because we're playing stadiums. Our album is popular around the world. And so this whole argument is a much bigger problem for the Grammys than it is for BTS. BTS don't need this seal of approval. Maybe in the past, you might have been like, thank you for giving us an awards category.

12:00Well, yes, that's right. Because in the past, an artist from another part of the world outside of the US, let alone South Korea, would have needed the Grammy to elevate them and give them the coverage and the attention they need. And of course, BTS absolutely don't need that. They should be competing against Taylor Swift and everyone else.

12:21Stu:It is a shock that they are not doing that already. But here's the thing. So assuming they figure something out now, they change it. BTS go, yes, we are going to submit, but maybe for the main categories. Because the other thing about this category was that you had to be in your local language. So none of BTS's big English language hits could have been submitted. So that was kind of one wrinkle to this. But then say BTS do enter, it's going to become this huge discussion, isn't it, about will they win something? Because if they don't win anything, again, it will be Grammys and BTS after they protect, you know, there's going to be a news story either way now.

12:56Stu:Either BTS did it out, either they enter and they don't win, or they enter and they win, and everyone says, oh, well, that's because. So it's going to be... It's an interesting sort of power play, isn't it? It's again about that shift in the power dynamics in the music industry, which is, you know, artists like BTS, anyone from anywhere outside of the US now does not need essentially the seal of approval of the US industry. And we're equating the Grammys with that because they can have an enormous global audience and a US audience outside of that system. And in some ways, the Grammys are sort of trying to reflect that whilst also maintaining their prestige in that space and saying, hey, we're anointing the big people here.

13:45I will always say that for situations like this, it always shocks me that no one in the office can go, And guys, I'm not sure about this one.

13:56Stu:Well, maybe the idea was floated, you know? But then, you know, if BTS don't get awards, you know, Charlie Chaplin was on the show. There we go. Okay. Well, let's look at this then. Back in the UK, we're talking about still reasonably new UK Prime Minister, number seven in 10 years. I've lost track now. Andy Burnham, who still has that new car smell as Prime Minister. And people are sort of happy with what's going on. and he's getting his feet under the table still. But he's sort of meeting a little bit of resistance from a group of people that he's quite closely aligned with. He's famously a music fan.

14:35He was a very music-first person when he was mayor of Manchester. 200 musicians have written a letter to the UK's new prime minister, Andy Burnham, and no, it's not to tell him that New Order are rubbish, which is sacrilege, of course, but it's a protest against a decision he might be taking soon. What is it? Because this is an interesting story around sort of artist power, isn't it?

14:58Stu:Yeah. Well, this is not about anything to do with music directly. I'll explain the interesting things. Yeah, this is about a place called Rosebank, which is an oil field or a proposed oil field off the North Atlantic coast of the UK. And it's part of this wider thing of, should the UK be drilling baby drilling in the North Sea and North Atlantic at a time when people are discussing fossil fuels in various ways. So this is more than 200 artists organized by Earth % Charity and Uplift. And it's kind of, some of the people you often see, artists who've really been associated with this campaigning before.

15:35Stu:So Brian Eno, who co-founded Earth % Massive Attack, Robert Smith and the Cure, Image and Heap, three members of Radiohead, which I find quite fun. Just the three, hey? So it's Tom York, Edward Brown and Phil Soho. So I wonder if the other two are like, no, no, we're really, really behind fossil fuels. The drama's got a huge collection of cars. And this letter basically is saying, don't approve this. Because this decision to whether to approve this offer has been punted into the long grass by every government that could until now, and courts are involved. And basically, it's been a long-running, should we or should we not do more drilling in the North Sea?

16:06Stu:And so this letter is interesting, because it's not just saying, we think the climate emergency is bad, please don't make it worse. It's actually drawing a direct line between the kind of fossil fuel industry and the survival of the live music industry. So it talks about extreme heatwaves and weather and volatile energy costs and about how that is causing festivals to be cancelled, forcing venues like Wembley to alter some of their policies. I think there's a Harry Styles degree recently Wembley had to say, there's a heatwave on, we have to make some changes. So it's relating this very directly to live music.

16:39It's not, and sometimes when artists

16:42Stu:talk about the climate emergency, they get accused of like eco-virtue signaling. Yeah. This is about self-preservation. Like, this is not about being just idealistic. It's about this is really harming our industry and the fans who want to go to concerts. So that's interesting. It's a smart move, isn't it? I will say for absolute disclosure, I am sort of tangentially involved with Earth % but it's very interesting how that perspective has been taken because we're sort of used to artists using their social leverage and social power to highlight causes that they think are important. And this is an example of that, of course.

17:16And that is the great power of being an artist, that you've got people who will not just sort of follow you blindly, but they will listen to you and they will get involved. And that is the great thing about the arts and art itself, that you can open conversations out and unpack them from the sort of the ebb and flow of politics, which can seem rather distant. You can make it real. And it can open it out to new audiences, teenagers who perhaps can't vote yet and things like that.

17:44Stu:I think the other thing here, though, I think, is that they're also accusing him of potential hypocrisy, which is, I think, interesting. So this letter talks about how he once stood on stage, I think, with massive attack, when he was mayor of Manchester and endorsed, I think it was a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty. So he was very much like, yes, no more fossil fuels. We need to sort this out. And what happens here is, like Andy Burnham, he's built this relatable man of the people brand for himself, hasn't he? And music has been a key part of that. He talks about how much he loves New Order and various bands.

18:17Stu:And he's made these social videos of him saying who's the best band in Manchester. He's really lent it. And that's good. When you're making friends with artists, that can be good. It's establishing you as the music-loving politician. But if you're then going to pivot to kind of, we've got to be pragmatic about energy, we have to drill in the North Sea, then those exact same musicians who you've been courting to make yourself look good are going to call out your hypocrisy louder than anyone else. and I think that's this is not what's happening here but it's their warning they will that if he approves this they will call out and I think that is a risk for him because he has built this brand of being like I like music and he's done this good stuff for music in the grassroots and that is what that is what artists do isn't it is that they're not they don't play politics famously they state their feelings and that is what art is and yeah if he if he if he does yeah so it's in the letter here he stood alongside massive attack to sign the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty on behalf of greater Manchester when he was mayor of Manchester.

19:19And they're asking him to, hey, don't forget that. And just now you're in number 10 and you've got the keys to country. Fragmatism may not be the correct pathway here. And can you make a statement? And, you know, we've seen this happen with Tony Blair in the past, who famously shot to number 10, sort of making himself a man of the people and famously Noel Gallagher going to number 10 and all those kinds of things. And that really polished his image. And I think artists are quite wary of aligning too closely with those politicians. And that is a good thing, right? That is what they should be there to do.

19:51I think so.

19:51Stu:And the other thing that's happening, in the UK right now, the far right are rising. The guy who's deputy leader of the reform party was just in the press saying, look, just go and enjoy. It's a little bit warm. Go and enjoy it. Climate change isn't something to worry about. And so I think musicians can be the counterweight to that, pulling the government back towards no, this is important, and here we're going to tell you why. So I think that's what we're seeing here. There is not really, there's a party to the left of the government, which is the Green Party, and they're doing that. But these musicians are kind of saying, yeah, we're going to use our clout to try and stop the government drifting towards the, wow, we need to drill for oil, that's more important.

20:31You had a chance there for party to the left of me, jokers to the right. No stress, we'll edit that in. But I want to say as well, I do think it's really smart how the pitch, the way this letter has been pitched is not just we are a bunch of lefty artists who care. It is drawing a line between climate change and the consequences of it on a day-to-day level, which is your gigs are going to be affected. Your big Wembley arena shows are going to be negatively affected. And that is sort of the story of this summer, isn't it? As the UK enters its fifth or sixth heatwave, that climate change is unignorable, and it's actually affecting your day-to-day life.

21:13And here's how it will affect music, this thing that feels like it will never be affected by external forces. But here it is, which is, you know, I think quite a smart move. And it does help get them away from the sort of hand-wringing lefty accusations that the right will make to them. Finally, in the big stories this week, Spotify is giving AI-generated artists their own special badge. I don't think that's to say that they are superior. But why are they doing it, and is it good news for human musicians, Stu? Yeah.

21:45Stu:So recently, Spotify started giving humans verified badges, human artists verified badges. And it said at the time, if you are, if it's an AI artist persona, so for example, the Velvet Sundown, you don't qualify, you can't have one of these badges. But from mid-September, there will be this new badge called AI Persona. So this will be shown on artist profile. Is Persona a good choice of word? It reminds me of the famous role-playing game series. So I'm thinking it's like, it's an idea of schools and demons. But yeah, when you search them, you'll see it. When they're on playlists, you'll see it.

22:20Stu:And it will basically flag when their identity is synthetic and does not represent a human. So the very important thing here is this badge is about the artist's identity. It's not about how the music was made. So if a real human musician uses AI tools to make something, they won't become an AI persona. It's only if they've created a virtual character, and that's what's going to be matched here. You can self-disclose this. So when you upload music to Spotify, you can say this is an AI persona. But if you don't, Spotify is saying, we are going to be using tools to figure this out and label you. And if we have to label you, if you don't do it yourself, we have to label you, there'll be extra kind of restrictions on it afterwards.