America’s Demographic Problem, Why Scott Became a Professor, and The Lazy Person’s Guide to Productivity

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1:26Welcome to Office Hours with Prof. G. This is the part of the show where we answer questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at ProfGmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at ProfGmedia.com. Question number one. Hi, Prof G and Ed. Love the show. I was wondering if the same demographic trends affecting higher ed will affect companies like Disney, who rely upon a younger demographic for the streaming content, venues, and other products. In other words, with fewer babies being born and as people age, they will drop their Disney subscriptions, forcing Disney to find new subscribers from a smaller pool.

2:10What other companies might face this demographic challenge? It's a really interesting question. I think about this through the lens of I have a son who will be applying to college. And actually, for the first time, the demographics are on his side. Fewer boys are applying to a college and just fewer people are applying to college. Although what's against him is because I'm a narcissist and want him to go to a, quote unquote, prestige or elite school. Is that true? You know, it's sort of true. I kind of come to the conclusion I just want him to be happy. But anyways, what you see is a crowding effect into the best universities.

2:45But on the whole, you're going to see tier two universities go out of business like no tomorrow. People under the age of 18 represent roughly 21 percent of the total American population, down from 36 percent in the 60s. Jesus Christ. You want to worry about Social Security? Who's going to pay for this goddamn thing? It's young people paying for it right now. And there used to be like 12 to 1 working age people. The seniors now it's something like 3 to 1. In the next 20 years, it's projected that American share of children will fall by an additional three percentage points. The Census Bureau estimates that by 2060, America will add over 8 million children.

3:18In comparison, they estimate Americans over the age of 65 will increase by about 37 million. Okay, get this. 8 million new kids, 37 million more old people. The falling birth rate will likely have significant impacts on business, including baby product manufacturers, child care services, and education providers. Additionally, there'll be an enormous increase in demand for products and services aimed at the elderly population, including senior care and retirement communities. Yeah, no doubt some of the companies catering to kids will suffer. But coming like Disney, I think they're fine because, one, it's so fucking crowded as it is, and it's become a rite of passage.

3:56You're likely going to have child services called on you if you don't take your kids to Disney for what is the seventh circle of hell for a weekend of overpriced hotels and shitty food. and two-hour lines to get on the Avatar ride. I think Disney's going to be fine because there's a flight to quality and people will stop, you know, go one level down, Six Flags Magic Mountain or Busch Gardens or whatever it is now. I think they'll suffer, but I think what people will do is end up spending more money across fewer. There's going to be a flight to quality just the same way that despite there being fewer young people, the elite colleges are booming because there's a kind of a rush to quality and they create this illusion of scarcity.

4:31They get more capital, trade at a higher multiple, reinvest in the new Star Wars land or Rogue Nine or whatever it is, and they kind of pull ahead from the competition. By the way, Disney for kids and Universal for the teenagers is what I've discovered as I've gotten older. The problems here are bigger than consumer companies, and that is now about 40 % of our budget goes to services, Medicare, Social Security for people over the age of 65, and it's about to go over 50 % because we have an aging population and we don't means test and they vote. So we just cram more and more wealth. Old people have figured out they can vote themselves more money.

5:08It is ridiculous that we don't have means testing for Social Security. It is ridiculous that the age hasn't been dramatically elevated. 65? People aren't even getting elected to the Senate. They're like a young, they're like the hot young thing when they show up to the Senate at 65. We absolutely need to address this, not only this aging, but the fact that we continue you to cram more money into the pockets of the old people. I believe you could reverse engineer all of the biggest issues in our society, income inequality, polarization, extremism, to one thing, one stat, and that is for the first time in our nation's history, a 30-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30.

5:44That is a breakdown on the social compact. It doesn't mean a fucking thing that the S &P is touching new highs. It doesn't mean anything what GDP growth is if your kids aren't doing as well as you. So this connotes a bigger problem, specifically not only what it means for consumer brands with a population dearth, but what it means for our society when people no longer have the money or the confidence to have their own children. Thanks for the question. Question number two. Hey, Scott. This is Sean calling from the Sunshine State of Florida. I'm a huge fan of you and all of your shows. While I've heard you speak about many, many things, and this show is called Office Hours, I've somehow missed you discuss your life working in academia.

6:22I began adjunct teaching on the side while working in the clinical world of healthcare. I realized I absolutely love teaching. And more importantly, I loved helping students discover their potential career path in healthcare, despite the fact that I still have much to learn in my mid-30s. This year, I accepted a full-time position as a teaching professor at a university in Florida, which has been an amazing experience thus far. My question for you is, what originally got you motivated to teach? And did your feelings change about teaching as the years went on? Like you, I'm not coming from a PhD background, but rather from working in the clinical world.

6:53I fear there will eventually be some sort of ceiling effect for me, both financially and just the idea of teaching the same thing year after year. I'm grateful for what I'm doing, and I'm enjoying what I'm doing, but I also like looking at the crystal ball, and I'm just eager to continuously grow as both a person and a professional, which is why I love all your shows. Thanks for your answer, and thanks for all that you do. Wow, Sean from Florida. We're going to need a bigger boat. So let's bring this back to me. My whole life, if I've wanted to be a teacher, I thought I would really enjoy it and I'd be good at it.

7:22And I contemplated when I was in business school, applying to the PhD program and getting my PhD and pursuing a career in academia. And a couple of things happened. One, my mom got very sick and I knew that I would need to start making money, that I just didn't have the kind of the capacity to take on another three years of student debt or not be making money in a PhD program. And also some of it is less noble. I just thought I'd really like to get out there and start making real bank. and I didn't see how I was going to do that as a prof, at least initially. So I went out, I gave myself 10 years before I would go back to teaching.

7:55And exactly 10 years later in 2002, after graduating from Haas in 1992, I joined the faculty at NYU. And one of the motivations for joining was I thought I was going to be rich and that I could leave and just go focus on teaching. And I took a job paying$12 ,000 a year as an adjunct professor at NYU. And as you have your plans, then God laughs. My company read Envelope to Go Public, and on paper, I was worth a lot of money. And then I wasn't when the dot-bomb implosion happened. So I kind of woke up and realized I was an adjunct professor making$12 ,000 a year. Now, having said that, I think academia is a wonderful career.

8:31It's definitely a caste system. It's definitely some of the most discriminatory business in the world. Essentially, the people in charge hire their PhD buddies. They write bullshit research, which is 98 percent of peer-reviewed academic research. It's just bullshit to give each other citations such that they can qualify, they can get tenure, which is guaranteed lifetime employment, which translates to student debt, as two-thirds of these individuals within 20 years are totally unproductive and overpaid. And tenure is this kind of this grift where because Galileo said the world might be round and we thought we need to protect academics, we've decided that the guy who came up with Gap 1 accounting in 1985 deserves lifetime employment.

9:07It's just fucking stupid. The result is a crowding at the top of the pyramid and young academics who are really outstanding have trouble moving up because these people will not leave. And most of this quote-unquote tenure is nothing but a guilt and a tax on young people, which translates to student debt. The administrative state is out of control at universities. My department chair, or one of my department chairs in marketing, was essentially a pretty weak academic who was a functioning, or semi-functioning alcoholic. So I know, Let's give her an administrative role. Look, you're going in as a practicing professor.

9:42Here are some tips. One, this is a business. And the way you increase your compensation is by putting butts in seats. You're probably not going to do great peer-reviewed research. I was thinking about doing peer-reviewed research, and then I read it. I'm like, this is stupid. None of this shit has any relevance to anything. And so I started doing a lot of research, but I did it on the guise of a private company called L2. And I got way more press and kind of private sector impact than almost any of the peer review research, maybe with the exception of some of the peer review research that the finance department does, which bubbles up.

10:13Guys like David Yermak and Aswath the Motor and his peer review research. But it's just so powerful. But anyways, what I found is that the key to a currency, and there's four or five of these people. Essentially at NYU Stern, we have four or five ringers. And that is someone, a professor that everyone feels like they got to take. like a Glenn Okun or a Sonia Marciano at NYU. They are clinicals. They don't have PhDs. They're practicing professors, but they're outstanding teachers. And because it's a business, they have to have a certain number of classes that everyone, if they take three or four of these, they feel like they got their money's worth.

10:47Those people have real currency and power. I became one of those people. I became one of their ringers. And so I could put 500 butts in seats every year, which at$7 ,000 per class, which is what we charge at NYU Stern, you're technically generating three and a half million dollars in income. They're paying you a lot less than that, but you have some currency. So the key for you, my friend, is just becoming outstanding at teaching and getting more butts in seats. I would avoid the administrative state, you know, if it's a means of helping out, fine. But for the most part, I think it's mostly a waste of time.

11:19I find that most of the administration and kind of program stuff on campus is just people pushing paper to each other. And my career took off when I decided I was going to nothing. I was never going to spend any time on campus unless I was teaching to do a market check. And what you do is you quit every three to five years without quitting. Every three to five years, I would interview at another university. I'd get called by a Cornell or a Wardner or Columbia. I'd interview, I'd find out what the offer would be. And then I'd go to the dean or my department chair and say, I don't want to leave.

11:47I'd be transparent, but this is my current value in the marketplace. And I knew I had some currency because fortunately for me, the marketing department was not very strong in terms of in-room teaching, and they would match it. And so, you know, you got to recognize that the leadership of universities generally sees adjuncts and clinicals as sort of, I don't know, like Russian soldiers that they just kind of throw into the meat grinder. And that is, oh, it's your calling. You don't actually need health benefits or money. We save that for the tenured faculty. So you have to create your own currency through butts in seats, and then you have to leverage it by occasionally interviewing with another university.

12:26That's kind of the politics of how the sausage is made. Having said that, you generally are in an environment where people are not assholes. They fight over every little thing because there's so little at risk or there's so little to be gained. But generally speaking, the people are pretty nice. The best academics are some of the most inspiring people you ever run across. Being on campus is incredibly inspiring. You do feel as if you're adding value. Being around young people is just incredibly, I don't know, invigorating. But let me finish where I started. A lot there, a lot there. A lot of trauma, a lot of PTSD, but a lot of reward too.

13:01Thanks for the question, Sean. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us.

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15:00Welcome back. Question number three. Hi, Scott. This is Duncan from Tokyo, Japan. I'm 40 years old, originally from Canada, and work in big tech. Now, Scott, you've been hyper-successful throughout your career, and you have many different endeavors going on at the same time, which I assume requires a lot of energy. I'd just love to hear your thoughts on how to best create and manage energy. And if laziness happens to be a bit of a challenge for you, it's sometimes what tactics you have to battle it. Thank you so much. And I hope to hear back from you. Thanks for the question. This really resonates with me, Duncan, because I am fundamentally a lazy person.

15:37And people are under the impression that I'm working all the time because of the content we put out. They think it's me and uploading videos to YouTube and drawing, sketching out these charts on a napkin. And they're like, it's amazing how much content you put out. Well, it's amazing how much credit I get for the content we put out. A couple of things. As it relates to laziness, investment banking and crew were both really important for me. because without a rote schedule, without having to drag my ass out of bed at 5 a.m. where I'd be letting seven other men out down in the boat and my coach would kick me off the team, I just would have never gotten up at 5 a.m.

16:16Without the pressure and the routinization and the scheduling and the demands of investment banking, I just never would have worked that hard. So I've tried to put myself in a context where I had no choice. And also I think deadlines are really important for a lazy person. My publisher, I don't know, they got 50, 70, 80 % of my book revenues. And really all they do is set deadlines. But those are really important for me because without them, I'm not sure. I think I'd put out a book every five years instead of every 18 months. So try and find a context or platforms that just quite frankly manage you and impose deadlines on you.

16:53I try to reduce the amount of time in between the decision to do something and doing it. I'm trying to be more reckless. Oh, I should work out. okay, start putting on your gym clothes. Don't think about it. I get, you know, this is a position of privilege, but one of the reasons I have a trainer is not because they do anything I don't know. But if there's a guy in my backyard at 8 a.m. on a Tuesday morning, I got to get out there. Sometimes I wait till 8, 10, because I'm so fucking lazy, and I'll just pop my head out and say, hey, Sean, I'll be out in 10 minutes. But eventually I get out there.

17:21Whereas if I was allowed to sleep in till 9 and then have some coffee and doodle around, I'm like, oh, no, the podcast is at 10. Too bad. I can't work out. So scheduling, forcing routine, deadlines, super important for a lazy person. In addition, and also this notion, get rid of the time in between the decision and doing. Oh, I should really call someone or I need to return this and just start writing it. I'm terrible. I get so many emails from people I want to respond to, and I think, oh, I'll do it later. Now what I need to do, and I don't do this all the time, I need to get back to this person, start getting back to them now.

17:54There's nothing like now. And even if it's a little reckless, just, oh, I'd like to, you know, I need to take these supplements. I'm like, where are the fucking pills? Where are the fucking, don't plan. Just the inclination, try and get into the practice of what I'm doing. As soon as I think I need to do something, okay, start doing it. Don't think about it, don't plan it, just start doing it and get on it. Otherwise, I just can't get over. I did, I was in Barcelona yesterday. I had all these plans for walking around, doing some videos, writing, proofing, editing a chapter and writing a book on masculinity.

18:26I did fucking nothing. By the time I was at the Nobu Hotel, So by the time I went down and had my weird sushi lunch and went online and watched TikTok for two hours, I'd literally wasted. I didn't even walk around one of what is one of the most impressive cities in the world. I did goddamn nothing, nothing, because I wasn't scheduled and I didn't have things going on today. Quite frankly, I am booked so solid. My assistant and my team has me doing so much of this shit, pods. I'm posting a lot. And you know what? I need it. I need that scheduling. So try and put yourself in a position where you have deadlines and schedules imposed on each other.

19:00Get rid of the gap between I need to do this and actually doing it. Also, and this is a position of privilege, greatness is in the agency of others. I've always realized that if it's just me as a sole proprietor, I'm not going to put out that much because I'm lazy. But what I've done is I've tried to figure out what am I really good at that no one else can do, and I outsource everything else. Now, that requires some capital. I have producers who write up scripts for me. I have someone helping me with my book. I have someone who does all our charts. I have someone who manages the business, the hiring and firing.

19:33I have a CFL. I just, I have a personal assistant. When I say personal, I'm going to New York tonight. She's going to make sure I have granola and milk in my refrigerator so that I don't have to go out and get it. Obviously, I have someone who cleans my home, someone who trains me. I'm a big believer in comparative advantage. Once you have a little bit of money, start thinking, how do I save time? and some of that might just be for you just to be lazy, but to free you up on the things you're good at. Let's summarize. Put yourself in a situation where you have imposed deadlines, a schedule, try and eliminate the time or reduce the time between I need to and actually just starting on it.

20:06Just start. Oh, I need to write a chapter. Just, okay, throw up in the fucking laptop and start writing, even if it's shit. Beauty is in the edit, by the way, when it comes to writing. And finally, as soon as you can, as soon as you have the resources, start outsourcing the stuff that you're not good at or that doesn't in any way leverage your unique skills. But again, I think laziness is underappreciated. I think there's a lot of us out there that are fundamentally lazy people. You just have to recognize your weakness and put in place the infrastructure such that you can do a workaround. Thanks for the question.

20:42That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at profgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at PropGmedia.com.

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