Apple’s Future Under Trump, Voter Turnout in the 2024 Election, and Scott’s Writing Advice

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1:23Download today. Welcome to the Prof. G. Pod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at profgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at profgmedia.com. So with that, first question. Hey, Prof G, this is Daniel from Chicago. And I have a question for you about Apple and tech regulation in the new Trump era. So the price of Apple products, if these Trump tariffs he talks about go into effect with the products coming out of China.

2:02Now, could Apple decide to self-regulate and start to impose age gating as kind of a way to counter these things? I also think this might be an opportunity for them to kind of stick it to meta in another way. So your thoughts on Apple and self-regulation? Self-regulation is nothing but an attempt to create a prophylactic in the 11th hour, hoping that if you make a peace offering, it won't be as bad. There is zero self-regulation as far as I can tell. I've always been a fan of Apple, but let's be honest, Tim Cook and Sundar Pichai are really likable, but they're really likable crack dealers outside of junior high school.

2:45Oxford just came out with a study showing a linear correlation between social media use and depression, anxiety, and eating disorders and self-harm among teenagers. Let me repeat that. Social media use is directly correlated to self-harm, anxiety, depression, and self-harm. So is it Mark Zuckerberg's fault? Yeah. But also, also the person delivering and selling this crack cocaine or these opiates or this meth is, in fact, Google and Apple. They're the ones that could probably more easily age-gate their products. There's no reason any 14-year-old should have a smartphone. There's no reason anyone under the age of 16 should be on social media.

3:25We're starting to see real pushback from the private sector. I would say the public private sector, specifically schools that are starting to ban phones, mostly because my colleagues break through seminal landmark work, the anxious generation. You're seeing entire countries. I think New Zealand has banned phones in schools. It's like it's just a talk everywhere, banning phones in schools. And as someone who's a father of two sons, spare me your bullshit that it's about parenting. It's not. If you have kids, they're going to be on social media because when they're not on social media, they actually end up more depressed than the depressed kids on social media because they're ostracized and they feel alone.

4:01I don't think there's going to be any self-regulation here. I think that you're going to see, I mean, they might do it to try and stave off more punitive regulation, but be clear, if we're waiting for the better angels to show up, you're going to, I don't know, you might as well wait for autonomous Tesla. Anyways, in terms of tariffs, Tim Cook has been very savvy. Trump seems to have a soft spot for Cook. He was able to avoid the majority of tariffs on most of its products during the first Trump presidency. How? Back during Trump's first term, Apple CEO Tim Cook convinced the White House to keep most of Apple's products, including iPhones, off the tariff list.

4:38Does that make sense? No. Even though most are made in China. He argued that tariffs would end up raising prices on products, including smartphones, tablets, and computers, which would hurt Apple and some of its tech peers. The White House seemed to agree. And he's right. But why do you have tariffs on fucking anything? The argument that Tim Cook made could be made for any toy, any piece of clothing, anything. This is nothing but a tax on consumers, except Tim and Apple are cool. And I think Trump liked hanging out with Tim Cook and thought, no, Apple's kind of appley and I want to be with the cool kids.

5:09Makes no sense. Now things could possibly change with Trump's second term. I doubt it. Trump has talked about putting a 10 to 20 percent tariff on all imported goods with a 60 percent higher tariff on imports from China. Good fucking luck is all I have to say with that. First off, the reason why I don't think tariffs are going to come through or be levied to nearly the extent that Trump has been blustering about. First off, for Apple, economists estimate that if Trump implemented new tariffs on goods made in China, the price of your next$1 ,000 iPhone would cost an extra$300. If you want to see people get really angry before they start self-cutting or throwing up their lunch, raise their iPhone price$300.

5:47But some experts think it's possible that the next White House will skip tariffs on smartphones, computers, and tablets again. Also, many companies have successfully shifted some of their marketing to other countries to steer clear of the higher tariffs on products made in China. In fact, Apple is one of them. Apple, you got to think in every goddamn meeting, he's like, diversify away from China. Oh, factory in India? Yeah, sure, we'll do that. Factory in Mexico? Hundred percent. Also, one of the reasons I don't think these tariffs are going to have nearly the traction he's hoping is a couple things.

6:17One, Republicans do get the economy. Oftentimes they get it more than Democrats. and you're going to see a lot of Republicans grow a backbone and say, if you put these kind of tariffs on this, you're going to raise 88 % of toys under the Christmas tree come from China. What happens when everyone's Christmas gets 20 % more expensive for people with kids? You're going to see a number of Republicans break from the administration because one, they understand economics, they like populist arguments, and also what people aren't talking about? In a couple weeks, President Trump is a lame duck. He can't run again.

6:52He can't boot people out of office. He can probably boot them out of office if they're up for re-election in the House in 2026. But other than that, he's not going to carry the kind of valerian steel he's had all along. He's been able to make or break careers. Pretty soon, he's going to be kind of Joe Biden on his way out and not be able to intimidate nearly as many Republicans. Synonym for tariff? Let me think. Tax. Thanks for the question. Question number two. Hey, Prof G. John coming to you from Austin, Texas. In the autopsy of the presidential election, I have not heard much mentioned about the sheer number of votes cast in 2024 compared to 2020.

7:31Voter turnout percentage hasn't been calculated yet for 2024, but you can only assume it was much lower than the 66.6 % from 2020. My question is, what happened in 2024 with such low voter turnout compared to 2020? Is the answer that the mass voting public was just too lazy to get out of the House and cast a vote in person in 2024? I would love to hear your thoughts on this. Thanks. Thanks for the question, John. About two-thirds, or 66 percent, of eligible voters participated in the 2020 election. That was the highest turnout for a national election since 1900. 100. Wow. As we're recording this, ballots are still being counted for this year's election, but according to estimates from the Associated Press and the University of Florida Election Lab, 64.5 % of eligible voters participated.

8:17So I think that's actually a pretty decent turnout. So I think this was a very emotional election, and I think that this shows that this turnout was actually as high or higher than most elections. And typically, oftentimes, people don't vote because they get discouraged or they're confused or they don't know who to vote for. But in this instance, I think a lot of people were very motivated, very polarized, very emotional, a lot of rage. So actually I think voter turnout was pretty, pretty strong here. Not as strong as two thirds. I think some of that was, um, there was a bit of a gag reflex around Trump, very emotional time around COVID.

8:57Uh, and I think there were a lot of people who were just less comfortable with Trump. Now, having said that, why didn't it even greater numbers in 2024? The honest answer is I don't know. But historically speaking, we had pretty strong voter turnout here. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us.

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10:34Date restrictions apply. Subject to availability. Install by independent contractors. See associate for details. Contiguous U.S. only. Welcome back. Question number three. Hey, Prop G. This is Will in Philadelphia. I just got out of the Navy, and now I'm using that sweet, sweet GI Bill to go to grad school. Finding an internship has been an interesting process. I'm 31, and this is the first time in my life a job interview didn't involve running and push-ups. I find myself spending a lot of time writing. For schoolwork, networking emails, cover letters, and questions for podcasts. Spending this much time writing is new for me.

11:09I find the process to be much more enjoyable than imagined, but I'm admittedly not a good writer. I'm trying to increase my skills and storytelling ability because, A, I want to be good at the things I enjoy, and B, I consider it an asymmetric advantage in my professional and personal future. My question is, is how did you develop your writing skills? What aspects of writing and storytelling did you want to develop specifically? Thanks again. Thanks for the question, Will, and thanks for your service. And I mean that sincerely. One of the things I regret is never having served. I think the great storytelling is the lost art or the key competence.

11:47If I could give my kids anything, and I say this a lot, but it bears repeating, it wouldn't be Mandarin or computer science or programming or negotiation skills, it would be storytelling. Your ability to get capital, your ability to convince people to join you, your ability to sell clients, your ability to manage people, your ability to find a mate, friends, whatever it might be, get elected to the House of Representatives is based on your ability to be a great storyteller. And that's not just standing in front of a bunch of people. It's, are you a great storyteller over text? Good twist of phrase.

12:21Are you good on threads? And I find that the hardest skill is writing. It's the hardest thing I do. I've committed to writing a book every 18 months until I kind of dropped dead. And I've done that for the last seven years. And every time I do it, I think, why the fuck did I agree to do this again? It is really difficult. And I find I try and work out. I try and damage my muscles such that they'll grow back stronger and faster, although that's kind of going away. But I also try and damage the muscle in between my ears, and I find the best way to do that is to try and write. There's a few things you can do to write well.

12:55One is academic, get strung in white, elements of style, and just make sure that you understand basics of grammar. I read that book six or seven times, and I still struggle with grammar. By the way, I was a shitty writer up until, I don't know, 25 or 30. The second thing is, it sounds, Pat, you just got to write all the fucking time. The most important thing, and this is true of most things, is starting. You want to write something the key Flip open your laptop and start writing because the real magic there's two pieces of magic starting And then going back in the edit So you just got to open get some thoughts as soon as you get a thought start writing It doesn't mean you don't have to start It can be a paragraph that's going to be in the body.

13:32It can be the conclusion but the moment you have something some form some Coagulation of thought some gestation of a concept some narrative arc whatever you write an outline whatever it is you you think you have some insight into what you or some idea what you want to do, start writing. The next thing is if you want to be a great writer is you need to read a lot because you'll start picking up on things. You'll start getting, you know, great writers will give you a sense for pace and cadence and the architecture sentences. A book that really helped me was, I think it was called On Writing by Stephen King.

14:06If you just type in Stephen King's book on writing, I thought it was fantastic. And he uses these examples where he cites a passage from one of his book where he's describing this metal chest that things are stored in, or he describes how he used to go to the doctor and have his eardrums pierced to release the fluid. And he describes it in such horrific detail that you're literally just on the edge of your seat and you realize this guy has such, such a gift. I think he's arguably my favorite writer. Is that true? Maybe John Irving? I don't know. Anyways, in sum, some basic academics, elements of style.

14:39Just start, practice, read, wonderful writers. But again, it's like anything in life. What is the key? What is the key? Now, start. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at PropGmedia. Again, that's officehours at PropGmedia.com.

15:07This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Caroline Chagrin. Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn. And please follow our Prop G Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday. Con las grandes ofertas de Prime Big Deal Days este 7 y 8 de octubre, la grandeza está en tus manos. So if you like to cook, you can get a offer in a new foot-bathor. You'll become the Prince of the Pan. Attention, attention!

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