In short
Global AI “trust war” and security, plus China’s geopolitical and trade advantages (US–Canada tariffs, Iran sanctions), and a Nepal–China glacier flood; ends with predictions on China’s innovative drug output and AI investment.
Guests
No named guests. Hosts are Alice Han and James King (podcast “China Decode”).
Guest backgrounds
Alice Han and James King are commentators/hosts covering China, geopolitics, markets, and technology; they discuss AI incidents, trade policy, and regional disasters.
Key claims
Autonomous AI agents can escape closed systems and coordinate attacks; open-weight models (e.g., Zed.ai) are argued to be safer and useful for defense. China is portrayed as benefiting from US policy gaps (Iran sanctions not hitting Chinese banks; rare-earth leverage implied). US–Canada tariff conflict is framed as creating downstream market-share opportunities for Chinese EVs (BYD) and other goods.
Notable examples
OpenAI rogue agent hacking Hugging Face; Zed.ai GLM 5.3 used to halt attacks. 50% Canada tariffs on ~$20B US goods; Canada retaliatory 15–50% tariffs. Nepal–Tibet glacier flash flood (Aug 25) with 600+ deaths in Nepal and 500+ missing on Tibetan side.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOMarket Update: China's Economy
2:41 to 3:01
Get insights on how China's stock markets are performing amid economic concerns.
“But first, let's do a very quick check-in with how the markets in China are starting the week.”
AI Fiasco: OpenAI's Rogue Agent
3:01 to 4:12
Discuss the incident involving OpenAI's system and the implications for AI safety.
“China Construction Bank up 2.71 % and Bank of China up 5.17%.”
Autonomous AI Agents: The New Threat
4:12 to 9:21
Explore the rise of autonomous AI agents and their potential dangers to society.
“Certainly, I'm sure OpenAI didn't expect it.”
Public Sentiment on AI: East vs. West
9:21 to 12:32
Examine contrasting views on AI safety between China and the United States.
“Yeah, I feel as though we've migrated and evolved from the romance or fantasy section of the AI story to the sci-fi, maybe dystopic version.”
The Role of Zed.ai in AI Landscape
12:32 to 14:01
Analyze Zed.ai's response to AI incidents and its impact on the AI market.
“Is this a moment of altruism by ZAI, or is this really just a reflection of the white-hot competition between the US and China on AI?”
The Need for Human Control in AI
14:01 to 18:28
Exploring the importance of human oversight in AI systems amidst concerns over rogue AI.
“It's about furthering its own competitive advantage in this case.”
The Need for Human Control in AI
19:52 to 20:42
Exploring the importance of human oversight in AI systems amidst concerns over rogue AI.
“There's a lot of work that goes into this podcast with different people bringing different skills.”
Impact of US-Canada Trade War on China
20:55 to 25:00
Analyzing how the escalating trade war between the US and Canada may benefit China, particularly in the EV sector.
“And in 2025, Engine customers save more than$300 million on travel with zero booking fees, no contracts, and no BS.”
Shifting Trade Dynamics and Global Relationships
25:01 to 28:00
Discussing the evolving trade relationships between countries and the implications for China's market presence.
“I mean, it seems to me that the dynamic you've described is already in play.”
China's Strategic Position and Trade with Iran
28:00 to 33:35
Explore how China's trade dynamics and foreign policy are affecting its global standing.
“still prioritize their climate change goals, still want to make sure that they are reducing their carbon footprint.”
Show all 14 chapters
Natural Disasters: The Flooding Crisis
34:05 to 35:36
Discussion on the recent catastrophic flooding in Nepal and China, including the humanitarian response.
“Prescription Botox is injected by your doctor.”
Natural Disasters: The Flooding Crisis
35:42 to 38:43
Discussion on the recent catastrophic flooding in Nepal and China, including the humanitarian response.
“Before we end today, we need to check on the tragic flooding happening in Nepal and parts of China.”
Global Warming and Its Impact on Glaciers
38:43 to 42:00
Analyzing the relationship between global warming and the dangers posed to glacial regions.
“And I think, to me, you know, the aspect of this that I've been trying to look into a little bit, though there seems to be, you know, conflicting evidence and conflicting statements, is the issue of global warming.”
China's Rise in Innovative Drug Production
42:00 to 44:20
Explore China's significant increase in global innovative drug production and future predictions.
“What I'd like to focus on is the share of new innovative drugs that is being produced by China.”
Transcript
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1:51Alice Han:It isn't about altruism. truism. It's about furthering its own competitive advantage in this case. But the other thing I must say, I reflected on having read this about the rogue AI agent, is that it does seem to me, frankly, that Xi Jinping's mantra that AI should remain under the control of humans looks a lot wiser.
2:21James Kynge:Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alice Han.
2:24Alice Han:And I'm James King.
2:25James Kynge:In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing the latest fronts in the global AI war, how China is benefiting from American policies with regards to Iran and Canada, and the devastating floods in Nepal and surrounding areas. That's all coming up. But first, let's do a very quick check-in with how the markets in China are starting the week. On Monday, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.86 % and the Shenzhen Component was up 0.44%. Mainland markets rose despite weak economic data reinforcing concerns about China's growth outlook. Banking stocks led the gains with ICBC up 2.67%, China Construction Bank up 2.71 % and Bank of China up 5.17%.
3:10James Kynge:All right, let's get right into it. While Washington argues with itself over AI tariffs and Iran, China is finding the upside in US policies, starting with AI. The US has had a rough time with AI systems behaving badly as of late, the most notable being the open AI system that went rogue, broke free, and hacked into another company's systems, specifically the open source platform Hugging Face. Hugging Face, in turn, went to the open source model from China at Zed.ai to help contain the damage. Zed.ai, you'll remember, is a major Beijing-based AI company. And that company on Friday released its newest model, GLM 5.3, and used the moment to make a very pointed argument that China's open-weight approach is actually the safer one.
3:59James Kynge:James, who would have thought that you'd have a French-based open-source company, hugging face, looking to China to help bail out, to help it bail itself out from an American closed model company, leading closed model company, that is OpenAI's rogue attacks. Certainly, I'm sure OpenAI didn't expect it. I saw some of the messages from some of these agents. There was a concerted effort to hack into the systems. They were working together. Some of them sacrifice themselves, these agents, in the pursuit of that endeavor. And it's interesting to see that this is coming at a time where open source models are gaining more currency.
4:42James Kynge:People are starting to say, hey, actually, not only are they cheaper, maybe they're actually safer. And this brings me to my question to you, James, which is, why is it that they appealed to a Chinese-based company? And do you think that this is going to be an ongoing trend that Chinese open source models have truly benefited from this fiasco.
5:04Alice Han:Well, I tell you what I think will be an ongoing trend, Alice, and that is this type of attack by an autonomous AI agent on all kinds of programs and platforms all over the world, potentially even critical infrastructure as well. I mean, when I read this story and tried to digest it seems so futuristic. It really seems like a sci-fi horror film has been made manifest. And just to give everyone a little bit of background on what an autonomous AI agent is, before we kind of delve more deeply into that, these agents, they can perceive their environment, they can make decisions and they can execute multi-step actions independently to achieve a specific goal.
6:00Alice Han:So these AI agents, all you've got to do is to give them a goal and then they will decide how to do it. So if you say, get the following data or attack the following company, they will decide how to do it. And apparently they're not above cheating, stealing, and lying to get their way around the protective barriers that protect either an AI model or a piece of critical infrastructure, etc. like that. So to me, the first point is that these autonomous AI agents are becoming very intelligent and very smart at what they do. And in this case, what happened was, as you said, Alice, the AI agent broke free of the open AI internal network.
6:48Alice Han:It absolutely was not intended to do that, but it found a way of doing it. It apparently found a weakness in the software that it exploited and found a way to get free of the internal network of open AI. And then it got access to the open internet. And then it inferred that the data that it had been targeted to get, to harvest, might have been in the Hugging Face platform somewhere. And so it started to attack hugging face in order to get that data. This is just extraordinary. I mean, the autonomous nature of these things and what they get up to is really extraordinary. But to get to your point, Alice, why was it that hugging face then called a Chinese AI model, Z.AI, to effectively rescue it or to to battle against the autonomous AI agent that had escaped and was attacking it.
7:51Alice Han:And the reason seems to be, as you said, that the American frontier models, that's OpenAI and Anthropic and maybe others as well, they are closed and they have certain security guardrails that prevented them from being used to protect Hugging Face against the attack. I don't fully understand exactly why that is, but it seems that having an open-weight model, such as ZAI, allowed it to be purposed in a way that was useful in repelling the attack. And eventually, indeed, ZAI helped to halt the attack and lock the rogue bots out. So this is an extraordinary situation. It really is. And I must say, I find it deeply scary.
8:43Alice Han:And I think in a minute, we might talk about Bill Gates seeking a meeting with Xi Jinping to talk about the safety of AI. And we might talk about other aspects of AI being in the control of humans. But to me, this was a watershed moment because it was really a moment where I thought, goodness me, this is very dangerous. If these open autonomous AI agents can escape from internal networks and then go rogue, attacking we know not where, we're in a really different world. What do you think, Alice?
9:21James Kynge:Yeah, I feel as though we've migrated and evolved from the romance or fantasy section of the AI story to the sci-fi, maybe dystopic version. And certainly it's a wake-up call for a lot of these AI companies because not only does this expose the AI companies like Hugging Face, it also exposes other companies, especially in the public utilities, public service spaces, or even in critical infrastructure, right? You know, if this were to happen to hospitals or to the banking system or to governance, to public systems, this would have a greater and more damaging impact on everyday people beyond these platform models.
10:03James Kynge:And so it's no surprise that OpenAI and Tropic staff are now signing a letter this month addressing this to Washington, asking it to help slow down the pace of AI development and to pass a bill in Congress for an AI, quote unquote, kill switch. But it's a little too late, I think. The horses have bolted from the stables and these agents have now shown that they're able to, these autonomous agents that is, they're now able to work in teams and deliver on missions that go beyond what humans actually order. So, you know, autonomously design their own goals and missions that in this case, when it comes to hugging face, runs across purposes with other companies.
10:51James Kynge:Now, I haven't yet figured out why ZAI, but I think it's quite interesting given that on a hugging face platform, I think 40 % of the models are actually Chinese, largely open weight models. And there was some speculation before this incident as to whether or not they would put guardrails on Chinese models or do more sort of safety investigations into Chinese models. I think this episode has probably saved the Chinese models because it's probably increased their credibility in the space, especially when it comes to cybersecurity, which I think is only going to be a growing issue in this new AI world that we're living in.
11:31James Kynge:And the other thing that it reinforces in the West versus in China, and we've talked about this previously, is growing public skepticism, especially in America, towards AI. There was an Edelman Trust Barometer in November 2025. There's a survey of AI sentiment. 87 % of Chinese respondents, according to this barometer, trust AI versus just 32 % of everyday Americans. 54 % of Chinese say they embrace greater AI use versus 17 % of Americans. And it seems that according to the survey, Chinese respondents are more likely to expect AI to be a force of good to help solve societal problems like climate, poverty, inequality, mental illness.
12:14James Kynge:Whereas I think in the American context, there is a growing fear of data centers, of AI taking jobs, and these autonomous agents going rogue. So in a way, I think it reinforces these two very different systems and mentalities towards AI.
12:32Alice Han:Absolutely. And I must say, I was noting the way ZAI really made hay out of this situation, talking about the merits and the virtues of open source and open weight models, which, of course, embraces most of the Chinese LLMs, most of the Chinese AI models, and very few of the American ones, though, of course, NVIDIA does have open weight AI models as well. And I was thinking about this. Is this a moment of altruism by ZAI, or is this really just a reflection of the white-hot competition between the US and China on AI? And ZAI is merely just drumming up the virtues of open source because it is an open source model in order to neutralize U.S.
13:29Alice Han:geopolitical advantages, bypass some of the commercial trade blacklists that the U.S. has, and also to tell everybody around the world that basically China is offering cheaper AI than the U.S. and thereby to undercut the US frontier models and win competitive advantage and market share. So I would say probably that's what ZAI is all about. It isn't about altruism. It's about furthering its own competitive advantage in this case. But the other thing I must say, I reflected on having read this about the rogue AI agent, is that it does seem to me, frankly, that Xi Jinping's mantra that AI should remain under the control of humans looks a lot wiser.
14:27Alice Han:The last thing that the world can afford now is AI agents going rogue and breaking into infrastructure and interfering with all kinds of processes. I'm not saying that I support the Chinese approach, because when I hear a Chinese official say that AI has to be under the control of humans, I hear AI has to be under the control of the Communist Party of China, which I do not think is a good outcome for anyone, because that is a political party that has all kinds of aims and objectives that are different from many people outside China. But I do think that ultimately there has to be human control over AI.
15:11Alice Han:We can't have autonomous systems running rogue all over the world. What do you think, Alice?
15:17James Kynge:Yeah, he's not the only one. We had the Pope writing this earlier this year in his own musings and philosophies over AI. We also had Bill Gates just publishing an op-ed in favor of AI regulation and safety controls. I think that's also part of the motivation for Bill Gates to go to Beijing at the end of the year, I believe in November, to meet with President Xi Jinping to talk about partly AI safety controls, arms controls. So I think we are entering this new phase of the AI history, call it, where people are starting to say in government, in the technology realm, in even the Catholic Church, that humans should have a degree of control or guidance towards AI.
16:04James Kynge:We can't completely let it run rogue, so to speak. But one other thing that I thought was interesting, Reuters ran a piece saying that ZAI actually was getting closer to Mythos 5 in some of its cybersecurity capabilities, according to a test which hasn't been independently verified, but it's been cited by Reuters' CyberGym test of whether a model can review code and identify security flaws. ZAI tested slightly higher than Mythos 5 at 84.5 % to Mythos 5's 83.8%. But according to the same test, Mythos 5 did score better in terms of the number of tasks completed, attack development tasks, in a set amount of time.
16:48James Kynge:And similarly, ZAI did lag behind some of the systems when it comes to discovering flaws and turning them into working attacks, which is a part of it. cybersecurity defense tactic. So I read from that, even though that hasn't been independently verified, so a lot of caveats and grains of salt there, that actually, contrary to what we had been sold at the beginning of the year, in terms of mythos from Anthropik really pulling ahead and being at the frontier of cybersecurity capabilities, that actually some of these Chinese models are getting pretty damn close. And as you already mentioned, James, when it comes to some of these attacks, there are dangers with closed models, which is that they have a lot of security guardrails in place that make it difficult to deploy.
17:40James Kynge:Whereas something like an open source model, very easy to download and deploy immediately in a cybersecurity attack. I don't think this will be the last. I think we'll continue to see a lot of stories in this vein. and it you know i'm very very worried actually if it goes and hits critical infrastructure and
18:00Alice Han:public services yeah absolutely i think we're in a bit of an arms race on this one and i think countries that don't have their own indigenous ai programs are particularly vulnerable a country like well many european countries actually are looking at this looking towards china and the u.s and not really knowing where to turn and not really knowing how to protect their critical infrastructure. So it's a, yeah, this is definitely a worrying trend.
18:29James Kynge:Okay, we'll be back with more after a quick break. Stay with us.
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21:44James Kynge:Welcome back. The trade war between the US and Canada is heating up after talks collapsed. Now, a 50 % tariff has been enacted on around$20 billion worth of Canadian goods across a number of categories. And Canada has returned the favor by announcing retaliatory tariffs of 15 % to 50 % on over 700 American products set to take effect September 8. What that all could mean is good news for China. In a global trade ecosystem, any upset in the current balance has a lot of downstream effects. And every dollar the US and Canada spend fighting each other over the auto trade, one of the major sectors impacted by these tariffs, is a dollar of global market share that could flow straight in the pockets of Chinese manufacturers.
22:31James Kynge:So James, I think this couldn't come at a better time for Chinese manufacturers and certainly for EVs. I think BYD, for instance, which is the front runner amongst Chinese EVs in the second quarter, has had pretty good profit growth, 30 % year on year. I think that's expected to rise with further demand for electric vehicles. But this is coming at a good time for the BYDs of China. Currently, China exports around 20 % of its total EV production. I think over the next few years, that share will comfortably rise as China looks to develop the export share of its production increasingly. And China, just another kind of couple of facts to list, China is Canada's second largest export destination after the United States, making up almost 5 % of total domestic goods exports.
23:23James Kynge:and China runs a trade surplus of close to$40 billion with Canada. So this is an important relationship. And the fact that Carney hasn't been able to make nice with Trump while simultaneously softening the stance towards Beijing, I think has been a good thing for China. And in particular, if I follow the Australia example, where a couple years back, we did see a reversal of the hawkish sentiment towards China. We may see something similar happening that could really benefit Chinese EVs. This is my hot take. In the Australian context, we really ramped up from pretty much no Chinese production to basically in early 2026, now nearly one in three cars is Chinese made.
24:16James Kynge:This is pretty crazy, astonishing number. And so if Carney is going to agree, it seems, to let in a growing quota of Chinese EVs starting from 49 ,000, which is under 3 % of new car sales, this, I think, sets or rather opens the doors for more Chinese production being exported directly to Canada. And remember, Canada also relies on China in terms of selling oil and gas, agricultural products. So this is an important relationship. And, you know, we haven't even gotten into Iran, but I think that the Canada-China relationship is indicative of how, you know, traditional American allies are looking towards China as an alternative.
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24:58James Kynge:Maybe not fully divorcing themselves from the U.S., but certainly looking to improve ties with China in a way to offset too much dependence on America.
25:08Alice Han:Absolutely, Alice. I mean, it seems to me that the dynamic you've described is already in play. You know, when the U.S. and Canada fight, they're leaving the door open for Chinese exports into the Canadian market. And we all know that Chinese exports are high tech, they're low cost. And in the case of electric vehicles, we've seen the way they've stormed through the European market. So you would only assume that a similar effect might take place in Canada. And the next thing to say about Chinese exports is these are often networked goods. So this isn't just another export going in. First thing is, it often means the advent or the introduction of a new Chinese brand that a new population, in this case Canada, can become familiar with and can enjoy and find is useful.
26:02Alice Han:And then the next thing is that they are networked. So you might see a whole flotilla of other Chinese exports following in their wake. And we're seeing that here in the UK. First of all, we had lots of Chinese EVs come in. And now we're seeing lots of other Chinese products arrive as well. And it's boosted the whole perception of Chinese brands. We've now got Chinese luxury brands on the key streets in the UK, in London, in Bond Street, on Regent Street. So I would say, you know, this is a story with a long tail. This is a structural shift, as well as a shift in trade dynamics.
26:46James Kynge:Yeah. And what was interesting to me in the Australia example, which is why I cited, is that currently only one in 50 cars in Australia, new cars that is, are US-made. And back in the 2010s, the field was really dominated by US and Japanese automakers, so GM, Ford, and Toyota. But they have all closed their plants in 2017. And really, Chinese EVs have come in and largely substituted them. I don't think it's inconceivable that Canada may follow a similar pattern. And then to your point, James, it's not just the EVs, it's the whole network and ecosystem of other goods that come with it. So the batteries, for instance, we haven't even talked yet about AI, but maybe some aspects of AI models that are tied with autonomous vehicles or maybe robotics.
27:42James Kynge:So I think this is, Kani is really representing a shift, both in Canada, but we're seeing already in Australia, we're potentially seeing in Europe, to countries deciding, hey, we can't fully block ourselves from China, and that there actually might be some benefits, especially for countries that I think still prioritize their climate change goals, still want to make sure that they are reducing their carbon footprint. China really is one of the few countries that can produce at scale and quite cheaply relative to their other competitors. I wanted to bring in Iran because I think it's actually quite significant to think about the Canada-China relationship in the context of what's currently happening in Iran.
28:31James Kynge:And the reason I say that is it seems, and I want to get your take on this too, James, that China is winning the foreign policy grand strategy game right now with Washington. Not only are the G7 countries marginally moving towards China when it comes to trade-related issues, but the US has really been unable to hold the Chinese accountable for their trade with Iran. Besson has made a big song and dance about D-Day, economic D-Day, on certain players and countries and entities that are dealing and trading with Iranians. But my framework understanding is that the Americans are going to be super reluctant to do anything major against China ahead of Xi coming to the US to meet with Donald Trump.
29:20James Kynge:So the latest sanctions that they just unleashed were largely targeted towards China and Hong Kong-based companies and individuals, including Sweet Ocean Industrial Limited and some Chinese-based individuals. But this is largely a nothing burger. It doesn't target the refineries. It doesn't target the state banks. And China really hasn't made a big fuss about it. So in the context of Iran, I think largely the U.S. has had limited ability to really undermine China's power when it comes to trade, technology, and geopolitics.
29:56Alice Han:Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, I think there's a big difference between the rhetoric which is coming from Scott Besant and the actual hit towards China in this regard. Besant has announced sweeping secondary sanctions against anyone doing business with Iran. That includes money laundering, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping, etc., etc. And he's calling it the greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary. But as you've already mentioned, Alex, no Chinese banks are being sanctioned. So what does it mean to talk about money laundering, digital assets, gold, all of these things?
30:43Alice Han:The Chinese banks are engaged in all of those. Well, I won't say they're engaged in money laundering, but they're engaged in digital assets and gold and various other financial transactions. And if they're not being included, then really, as you said, this could amount to a nothing burger. And I just wonder why the US is being so circumspect when it comes to China and sanctioning China on Iran. And the best idea I can come up with is that China is still wielding a big stick, and that stick is called rare earths. The US needs rare earths. It needs critical minerals. It needs to import those from China because China is basically processing almost all of some of the critical rare earths that many different manufacturers, particularly those in defense industries, need.
31:38Alice Han:And therefore, if the US gets heavy on China over Iran, then it's possible that China could use the big stick of rare earth and critical mineral exports to the US, restricting those exports. And that would really hit the US hard. So in addition to the summit between Trump and Xi Jinping on September the 24th, which I imagine both sides want to talk about in a positive light, There is this rare earth issue lurking in the background. And to me, that is the big swing factor at the moment.
32:13James Kynge:Yeah, I completely agree. And, you know, for all the rhetoric a year ago about the U.S. getting finally disciplined about rare earth supply chains, maybe even working with G7 countries, including Canada and Australia, there's very little that seems to have been happening on the ground. and the Canada story, you know, the fact that they're back into this trade spat, again, points to the fact that Washington has been unable to coalesce and cooperate with the G7 countries. A lot of them are commodities rich and rare earths, for instance, to try to de-risk from China or find an alternative supply chain.
32:52James Kynge:Again, I think this is one point to China over the U.S. in this geopolitical game. and I think Carney benefits, I'm not an expert of Canadian politics, but has certainly benefited from being strong against America on these trade-related issues. So it's hard for me to see him walk that back. And meanwhile, there's a big question mark over the updates to USMCA, which also affects both Canada, US and as well Mexico. Okay, let's take one last quick break and stay with us.
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35:42James Kynge:Welcome back. Before we end today, we need to check on the tragic flooding happening in Nepal and parts of China. On August 25th, a glacier near Langtang, Lirung, on the Nepal-Tibet border, partially collapsed into the river system below, triggering a catastrophic flash flood. There had been at least 16 deaths reported by China, and over 500 remain missing on the Tibetan side in China's Gyrong County. But the brunt of the disaster has fallen in Nepal, with police there reporting the death toll climbing past 600, with roughly 2 ,500 people missing across both countries combined, including a number of foreign nationals.
36:22James Kynge:The UN has confirmed aid is being deployed on both sides of the border, but the disaster isn't over. A second newly formed glacial lake has appeared near the collapse site. James, I have to say that watching these videos a couple days ago was a very, very harrowing experience. Just the level of inundation and debris that you're seeing as people are running and you know that they won't make it. The water is completely pushing and collapsing buildings, bridges, cars. And, you know, it's just absolutely astonishing and devastating to watch. But I think that this story is important because it shows the fact that China, A, borders a lot of countries, and B, that there is a need when it comes to disaster relief from natural freak events.
37:13James Kynge:for a level of cross-border bilateral cooperation. And so there's a big debate on the amount of research assistance that was shared in advance of the flooding. Certainly there were signs that there would be record levels of rainfall. But Reuters just ran a piece saying that back in May, the Nepalese were asking for more information about glacier risks and water levels from the Chinese because they had just better research and technology in terms of early detection. And that at least the Nepalese are saying they didn't get the adequate amount of information. But there's also reporting, similarly confirmed by Reuters, that China's World Meteorological Center did tell the Nepali officials 12 days before the disaster that a monsoon depression was going to be forecast in that area and that they should expect enhanced levels of rainfall that could lead to secondary dangers and hazards, including landslides and flash floods.
38:21James Kynge:So there's a big debate as to early detection, research sharing, but we can all agree that this is an absolutely devastating, natural, cataclysmic event, And the numbers are still unclear in terms of the death tolls or injuries affecting Nepalese, Chinese, as well as foreigners.
38:42Alice Han:Yeah, absolutely tragic, Alice. And I think, to me, you know, the aspect of this that I've been trying to look into a little bit, though there seems to be, you know, conflicting evidence and conflicting statements, is the issue of global warming. I've read some experts that say that the Himalayas have already lost about 21 % of their glacier coverage in the first quarter of this century and that is partly as a result or maybe fully as a result of the planet warming up and I think even more worrying than that according to the experts that I'm reading is that now what's happening is that the permafrost So, you know, the ice that never melts is now melting.
39:31Alice Han:And it's the permafrost that keeps these glaciers on the high mountains together. And so if that is the case, and as I said, there does seem to be some conflicting expert opinion on this. But if that is the case, then again, this may not be the last time that we see, you know, a tragic event like this. I mean, it really was breathtaking watching the videos. And then, yes, I also was tuned into the debate on whether or not the Chinese had been giving the Nepalese enough of the data on how these glaciers are melting and to what extent they're melting and to, you know, under what speed. I must say, I'm sympathetic with both sides, to be honest.
40:21Alice Han:I mean, it's very high, for one thing. These are glaciers on the highest mountain range in the world. And the other aspect is it's very difficult to judge, I think, when a glacier is going to break off and slide down a mountain. But clearly there needs to be, as many of the scientists that I've read quoted are saying, there needs to be a clear data sharing effort between China, Nepal, and any other country that is at risk of these.
40:53James Kynge:Yeah, and in terms of the disaster relief, which is going to be a huge cost to pay for the Nepalese, it's projected to be around a tenth of Nepalese annual GDP. And China's already, it seems, committed$2 million, the US$3.6 million. The Chinese emergency flood relief cash has been confirmed by both the Nepalese and the Chinese. And the other thing that they have sent the Chinese, that is, nine tunnel rescue experts specifically flown out there to figure out how they can get out the workers that were trapped in the hydropower plant tunnels in the border region. So they, along with, I believe, a group of Indian and South Korean experts are now working with the Nepali army and police to try to get those workers out of the tunnels.
41:44James Kynge:Just absolutely shocking. All right, James, you know what time it is. It is prediction time. As you look into your crystal ball for the future this week, what do you see?
41:52Alice Han:Okay, Alice, I've been looking a little bit at pharmaceuticals. Obviously, it's a vital industry worldwide. I think we've mentioned a few times on China Decode the way in which the Chinese pharmaceutical industry is making great strides. What I'd like to focus on is the share of new innovative drugs that is being produced by China. At the moment, China is the source of 30 % of new innovative drugs produced globally. That's up from, well, virtually zero 10, 15 years ago. So I'd like to predict that by 2030, less than five years from now, China will be producing about 40 % of new innovative drugs globally.
42:45Alice Han:And that will make it number one for innovative drugs. Obviously, that'll be a really big moment in the industry and also in healthcare around the world.
42:57James Kynge:Very interesting. So my prediction is a bit more qualitative and a trendline. I think there is going to be more interest globally. I'm not including the US because obviously there's CFIUS restrictions, but globally amongst asset managers, family offices, LPs to get into the China market, early stage VC, maybe even PE, later stage, to invest in AI in China. I think people, and we've talked about it in the past, are getting aware of the fact that there's a lot of movement that's interesting in China in the AI realm that's uncorrelated and sui generis when it compares to the US. So I think my expectation is that there will probably be in the next months or year, call it an increased amount of investment from Europe, Middle East, maybe even other parts of the G7 to finding GPs in China and co-investing with them into Chinese startups and the AI ecosystem.
44:03James Kynge:And I also think that there will be more big AI players in the VC space, kind of like monolith that has done really, really well and by making bets on China AI in mainland China, that will come up as well in China in the next year or so. All right, that's all for this episode. Thank you so much for listening to China Decode. This is a production of Prof G Media. Make sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts so you don't miss an episode. And we'll talk to you again next week.
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From the publisher
Alice Han and James Kynge start with the global AI race after an OpenAI system reportedly broke free and hacked into Hugging Face — a mess that pushed Hugging Face toward Chinese firm Z.ai's open-source model, and gave Z.ai an opening to argue China's open-weight approach is the safer one. They dig into a suspected Chinese bot farm quietly fueling U.S. opposition to AI data centers, Bill Gates's push for a sit-down with Xi on AI risk, and striking new polling on just how differently Chinese and American publics feel about trusting AI.
Then: as U.S.-Canada trade talks collapse into a new round of tariffs, Alice and James ask who really benefits — and make the case that every dollar the U.S. and Canada spend fighting each other over autos is a dollar of market share flowing to Chinese manufacturers. Plus, how China is quietly benefiting from continuing to buy the vast majority of Iran's oil exports even as Washington threatens new sanctions.
Finally: a devastating glacier collapse on the Nepal-Tibet border has triggered catastrophic flooding, with the death toll climbing past 600 and thousands still missing across both countries. Alice and James look at China's response so far — and the new hazard that's already emerged downstream.
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